Ekram Polutary Word
Ekram Polutary Word
Ekram Polutary Word
Contents
Article I. Contents...................................................................................................................................I
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................1
1.1 Project summery.......................................................................................................................3
II. BACKGROUND INFORMATION.........................................................................................................4
2.1. The Applicant...................................................................................................................................4
2.2. Brief History of the project and Contact Person..............................................................................5
2.3. Objective of the Project...................................................................................................................6
2.4. Product Description.........................................................................................................................6
2.5. The lease machinery........................................................................................................................6
2.7. Credit Information...........................................................................................................................6
III. Key success and risk factors.............................................................................................................7
3.1. Key Success Factors.........................................................................................................................7
3.2. Risk factors......................................................................................................................................9
3.3. SWOT ANALYSIS.............................................................................................................................10
IV. Market Study.................................................................................................................................12
4.1. General Review..............................................................................................................................12
4.2. Demand Analysis & Projection.......................................................................................................12
Project Engineering...................................................................................................................................19
5.4. Environmental Impact assessment................................................................................................22
5.5. Implementation Plan.....................................................................................................................24
VI. Organization Structure, Management and Manpower..................................................................25
6.1. Organizational structure................................................................................................................25
6.2. Management.................................................................................................................................25
6.3. Manpower Requirements..............................................................................................................26
6.4. The Role of Major Responsible Bodies in a poultry project...........................................................26
VII. Financial Study...............................................................................................................................27
7.1. Investment out lay.........................................................................................................................27
VIII. SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACTS..........................................................................................................29
Annex ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………….… 3
The total land holding of the project is about 21000 m2which is obtained through Leased
land. Whereas the Lease agreement which is expected to expire after 70 years.
For the project to function smoothly & optimally, the project is expected to have
GeneralManager, Farm Manager, Egg production section supervisor, Feeding
Department Head and other experts. The General Manager of the
projectbecomesAtoMohammed Ahmed; he has more than 9 year experience. Then
considering his experience and the assistance of qualified farm manager and other
qualified, skilled & experienced hired employees the project run effectively. On the
contrary the owner has enough experience before and afterward for the sameproject, so
he can support the Manager of the farm.
Machinery & other office equipment available by Performa invoice submitted and have
got a theoretical production capacity of producing19,200 on time. The project assuming
for feed formulation and processing 300 working days per annum and 8working hours
per shift and expects to have two shifts per day. The project is estimated to have a
theoretical production capacity of feed miler and mixer machine producing 24,000 quintal
per annumat full capacity in two shifts. The production capacity is assumed to start at
80% of its theoretical capacity, increase 5 % per annum until attainable capacity of 90% is
reached. The project has good infrastructure accessibility at any time.
The total financial investment cost of the project is estimated to be Birr 13,660,079.00 Out of
which Birr 11,635,417is owners equity and Birr 2,024,662is expected to be lease amount
covered by DBE.
The project will create employment opportunities for about 17Employees and contribute
toincreases the income of the workers employed in and the owners too, transfer
technology and knowhow for local producers besides playing vital role in the growth of
economy. Thepoultry project generates substantial revenue to the government in the
form of taxes.
c. Source of Finance
Description Amount Debt : Equity Ratio
This poultry production project was established by EkramSeid. The project is located in Amhara
National Regional State, Oromia Zone, chefaTwon(Kebele02). The project site is found about
The risk that might be created at macro level is generally low, since there are good government
policies and incentives to the sector.
WEAKNESSSS
Unavailability of hybrid stock in domestic market
THREATS
Prevalence of disease. Mortality is the most alarming threat to the viability of the farm.
Price fluctuation of poultry products.
Make stiff the domestic competitions.
Short shelf life of the egg product
Mitigation Mechanisms for Weakness and Threats
A. Weaknesses
To mitigate the educational problem of the incubation worker, so get experience from abroad
and communicate to share operation system.
B. Threats
Use proper vaccination and medication for the stock after day to day follow up.
In order to penetrate the market and remain competitive, the project should develop good
marketing strategy like production of quality product and avail it at competitive price.
Promotion also the main weapon to wean competitors.
The promoter should take care of its quality of the product and should take care of stimulating
gradually to satisfy the market and cost minimization as much as possible.
4. Market Study
4.1. General Review
The Ethiopian chicken meat market situation analyses considered only the domestic market
because import and export contribution was insignificant to change the sector’s contribution to the
GDP, even if the country has a comparative advantage for export.
4.2. Demand Analysis & Projection
4.2.1. Demand Analysis
The demand for chicken meat consumption are primarily linked to four key factors namely
population growth, improvements in incomes, chicken prices relative to those for competitive
meats and dietary preferences. Poultry meat is the central diets of Ethiopian’s. “Doro Wet” which
is prepared from poultry meat and eggs is one of the favorite dishes of the local population which
is prepared especially during religious festivals and holidays, virtually in every household in the
country.
Besides, due to the traditional consumption habit and as the awareness of the population on the
nutritional and other advantages of poultry products increases the market for the products is also
expected to expand.
As it has been said, the demand for poultry meat is mainly influenced by population growth the
domestic consumption for chickens’ meat is determined by using apparent consumption approach.
Apparent consumption is calculated by subtracting export from the sum of domestic production
and import.
Number of Population
The case team determined the per capita consumption trend for chicken meat for the past nine
years to project the future domestic demand. In determining per capita consumption trend, the
annual actual population growth rate of 2.67 percent used as a base year forecasting rate. Based on
As shown in the above table, the average per capita consumption for chicken meat was estimated
at 0.00086 tons per head per annum. As a result this rate was used for projection purpose as a
constant throughout the projection period. On the other hand, the per capita consumption trend of
hen eggs shows a decreasing trend with an average of 0.00050 ton per person per annum. As a
result an average growth rate of -0.477% for chicken and a constant per capita consumption of
0.00050 ton/person/annum is used for projection purpose.
Table 2:- Demand of hen eggs
Hen Eggs
Year Production (Tons) Per Capita Consumption Growth rate (%)
2005 35,000 0.00050
2006 37,500 0.00052 4.00%
2007 38,000 0.00051 -1.92%
2008 38,500 0.00051 0.00%
2009 39,000 0.00050 -1.96%
-2.00%
2010 39,000 0.00049
-2.04%
2011 39,600 0.00048
0.00%
2012 40,629 0.00048
0.00%
2013 41,264 0.00048
Description /
years 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020 2021 2022 2023
Projected
93,701,217 96,203,040 98,771,661 101,408,864 104,116,481 106,896,391 109,750,525 112,680,864
Population
chickens/
93,781,800 96,285,775 98,856,605 101,496,076 104,206,021 106,988,322 109,844,910 112,777,769
slaughtered
Per capita
0.00086 0.00086 0.00086 0.00086 0.00086 0.00086 0.00086 0.00086
consumption
Change in
Per-capita 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67%
consumption
Hen Eggs
47788 49064 50374 51719 53100 54518 55973 57468
(tones)
Per capita
0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005
consumption
Change in
Per-capita 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67% 2.67%
consumption
The supply of chickens and hen eggs determined from the domestic production. In the case of
Ethiopia, domestic production takes the lion share of the supply. In spite of this, there is a no
import of live chicken (except DOCs for raring purposes) and the import of hen eggs to the country
is negligible.
A. Domestic Production
The total production of the country from the year 2004 to 2013 is given in table 5.13. As the
table shows, the total production of chickens and hen eggs in Ethiopia depicts a general
increasing trend with an annual average growth rate of 3.69% and 1.27% for chickens and hen
eggs, respectively.
Table 6: Production by chicken and hen eggs
Chickens/slaughtered (1000 head) Hen Eggs (Tones)
Year Production Growth rate (%) Production Growth rate (%)
2004 58,870 36,624
2005 53,200 -9.63% 35,000 -4.43%
2006 56,500 6.20% 37,500 7.14%
2007 57,800 2.30% 38,000 1.33%
2008 60,736 5.08% 38,500 1.32%
2009 63,000 3.73% 39,000 1.30%
Ethiopia imports only parent stock DOC’s for rearing purpose. Currently there is no import of live
chicken for consumption purpose in the country. As shown in the table 5.14 below, the import of
hen eggs shows a fluctuating trend and is negligible. As a result, import of hen eggs is not
considered for projection purpose.
Table 7: Import of Hen Eggs, tones
The supply projection of chicken’s meat and hen egg is given in table 5.15 by taking into account
the trend analysis. As a result annual average growth rate of 3.69 pct and 1.27 pct is considered for
chicken meat and hen eggs.
Table 9: Supply Projection
The demand supply gap is estimated to be increased from 93,693,071 to 112,663,422during the
year 2016 to 2023 for chicken meat while the gap of hen eggs estimated to be raised from 5306 to
11,062respectively during the same years. The gap will continue to grow that augments the
demand for poultry meat.
Moreover this gap indicates the existence future growing demand far from the projection period
due to the computation of per capita consumption considered the population number that would be
associated with increasing income or purchasing power.
Therefore, we can be sure that the level of chicken meat consumption will have a strong
association with the growth of income which would be confirmed by the economic growth.
5. TECHNICAL STUDY
5.1. Project Location Site
The main machinery required for the project is Incubator and Hatchery. The machine will
be imported from abroad and purchased by DBE. Feed mill and mixer is the other
machinery required for feed processing where as other than the machinery purchased by
DBE all the necessary machinery and equipmentshould be purchased from local market
by the promoter confirmed by his undertaking letter.
Description Qty Unit price in Euro Total cost in Euro Total cost in birr
Day old chicks 5000 6.5 32,500 813,549.75
5.3 Utilities
The necessary utilities such as Electricity, Water, Telephone and road accessibility required for the
operation of the project are available at the project site.
The plant's and over all farm electric consumption level at full capacity per annum over the project
years is estimated to be 126,241.45 KW.
Raw materials
The major raw materials that are used in the proposed poultry production project mainly include
Parent stock Day Old Chicks (DOCs), poultry feed, water, poultry litter, fumigants, Vaccines and
disinfectants. The parent stock or parent day old chicken breed type is Bovans brown imported
from Netherlands andreared to hatching commercial broiler/layer, whereas feed and other basic
medicine are locally available at local market all are covered by the promoter.
Feed costs have a major impact on the profitability of poultry farm operations. The high cost of
feed is related to the energy, protein, calcium, and vitamins contents of the diet. The poultry feed
assortment to be given to the birds depend on their age, sex, and their type. Rations formulated to
Recommended measures to maximize the efficiency of the operation and minimize wasted feed
include the following:
Protect feed from exposure to rain and wind during processing, storage, transport and feeding.
Maintain feed storage , transport and feeding systems in good working condition;
Maintain records of livestock feed use;
Use quality, uncontaminated feed materials
Minimize the surface area of manure in storage;
Locate manure piles away from water bodies, floodplains, wellheads or other sensitive
habitats;
Match feed content to the specific nutritional requirements of the birds in their different
production / growth stages;
Reduce mortalities through proper animal care and disease prevention;
Collect carcasses on a regular basis to prevent putrefaction;
Compost only disease-free carcasses and ensure that the composting process is managed to
prevent leach ate and odors (e.g. sufficient cover material, proper temperature and moisture
content);
Reduce water use and spills from animal watering by preventing overflow of watering devices
and using calibrated, well-maintained self-watering devices;
2016 2017
Description of activities
S/N Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr May Jun. Jul. Aug Sep
1 Lease process
6 Repayment start
General Manager
Farm Manager
Feeding
Ekramseid poultry Farm Department
Page
6.2. Management
The sector is one of the labor intensive businesses so, recruiting people with appropriate quality
and quantity is advantageous for poultry firms to cope up with firm competition in the domestic
market. Higher performance, speed, skill, and competency development, talent management and
human asset refreshing are the building blocks of human resource management and source of
success for poultry farm. In addition, having a well-structured organizational management system
is one of the success factors of any organization. The hierarchy of decision making, superior
subordinate coordinate and relationship, communication process are all determined by the nature
of organizational structure since it affects the overall efficiency and performance level of the
organization. Like that of many manufacturing establishments poultry subsector has also
functional and production based organizational structure.
The General Manager of the project becomes AtoMohammed Ahmed. He has more than 9 year to
9 month for overall experience. Then, considering his experience and the assistance of farm
manager, skilled& experienced hired employees manage the project.In addition to this the owner is
expected to manage the project successfully because he has enough experience before and then for
project financing at the same project.
6.3. Manpower Requirements
Manpower is an essential factor for the successful operation of a poultry farm since poultry
products are sensitive to the environment and could easily be contaminated. Skilled, Semi-skilled
and unskilled workers are needed to manage the operation of a poultry farm. Regarding availability
of qualified and skilled labor, in the country, there are adequate graduates in agricultural and
animal science and in other fields of study required by the project. In general, this project has
about 17additionalpermanentemployees.
7. Financial Study
7.1. Investment out lay
The detail of total project investment outlay is presented in the table 8.1 as follow:-
As we have tried to depict in the table above, from the total planed cost of the project Birr
5,756,163 the promoter working capital and lease amount; from this the promoter should
contribute 20% birr1,151,233 as an equity contribution in cash or 50% in cash that is 575,616 and
50% in kind and the rest of Birr 2,024,662 will be financed by the DBE in the form machinery
lease. The detail of fund allocation and source of fund is depicted on the above table.
A. Profitability/loss forecast
Profit/loss forecast presents the results of project’s operations during a period of time. It shows
income earning from the project and expenses incurred in attaining the income. The projected
profit/loss statement of the project reveals that the project will earn profit of Birr 7,683,305 during
its first year of its operation and earn profit of Birr7,418,024 at the 10thyear of projection. This
indicates that the project could run profitable business venture and can maintain objective of its
establishment at competitive quality and price.
B. Cash flow
Cash flow projection provides a look at the movement of cash in and out of the project. It is
important in determining whether or not a project has enough cash to pay its bills, handle expenses
and acquire assets. Based on this fact, the forecasted net cash balance shows a balance of
Birr7,584,427 in the first year and will grow up to Birr 90,420,291 at the 10thyear of projection
period, demonstrating that the project will not face liquidity constraint to finance its operational
costs as well as debt obligation.
Balance Sheet Projection is used to provide insight into assets and debts of the project at a
particular point in time. Total assets of the project expected to rise from Birr13,660,079 during the
first operational year to Birr 99,481,496at the 10thyear of projection year.
Create Job Opportunity: Theproject requires both skilled and semiskilled labor force and
hence will open job opportunities for them and thereby increase income of the workers and
Saving of Foreign Currency and Import Substitution: The development of this sub-
sector will save the amount of foreign currency that necessitates to importing hen for meat
and fertile eggs.
Technology and Knowledge Transfer: The development of this subsector can bring the
transfer of knowhow and technology by introducing modern production techniques that
optimize yield and quality of day old chicks and pullets that are competitive in the domestic
market in terms of price, quality and etc.
9.1. Conclusion
Project appraisal team has gone through all files to assess the viability of the project in terms of
market, technical, financial aspects and come up with the following conclusion.
The total land holding of the project is about 21000 m2which is obtained through Lease with lease
agreement period of 70 years.
Market assessment of the project indicates that the demand for poultry products is unsaturated
which indicates there is ample opportunity for the expansionthe project.
The project is expected to start its operation for only feed milling and mixing machine at initial
capacity of 80% and increase by 5% annually until attainable capacity 90% is reached in year
three and after.
The project is expected to create employment opportunity for about 17 additional Employees. Out
of this the feed formulation and processing unit works two shifts per day with 8 working hours
per shift for the total of 300 working days per annum. In addition the establishment of poultry
AtoMohammed Ahmedis the General Manager of the project. He has about 9 years and 9 month
over all experience. Then considering his experience and the assistance of qualified farm manager
and other qualified, skilled & experienced hired employees is expected to manage the project
successfully.
9.2. Recommendation
The project is found to be financially viable, economically advantageous & socially
desirable.Based on the above facts theBranch Lease Appraisal team has proposed and approved a
loan amount of Birr 2,024,662.00 to EkramSeidPoultry production project under the following
terms & conditions.