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    Factor SSR 3.24.11 Gbpusd

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    Peter L Brandt
    The document summarizes technical signs that the British Pound/U.S. Dollar currency pair (GBPUSD) may have reached a major high and could trend lower going forward. Specifically, the weekly chart displays a possible 26-month symmetrical triangle pattern that, if correct, suggests the market has made its final high within the triangle. Additionally, the daily chart shows a right-angled broadening pattern that favors a top whenever the horizontal line serves as the lower boundary. While shorting on a break below 1.5925 would be confirming the pattern, the author expresses hesitation given past false signals but would still take that action with a tight risk limit.

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Factor SSR 3.24.11 Gbpusd

    Uploaded by

    Peter L Brandt
    168 views2 pages
    The document summarizes technical signs that the British Pound/U.S. Dollar currency pair (GBPUSD) may have reached a major high and could trend lower going forward. Specifically, the weekly chart displays a possible 26-month symmetrical triangle pattern that, if correct, suggests the market has made its final high within the triangle. Additionally, the daily chart shows a right-angled broadening pattern that favors a top whenever the horizontal line serves as the lower boundary. While shorting on a break below 1.5925 would be confirming the pattern, the author expresses hesitation given past false signals but would still take that action with a tight risk limit.

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    British Pound. Analysis of price graphs using classical charting principles.

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    Factor Ssr 3.24.11 Gbpusd

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    The document summarizes technical signs that the British Pound/U.S. Dollar currency pair (GBPUSD) may have reached a major high and could trend lower going forward. Specifically, the weekly chart displays a possible 26-month symmetrical triangle pattern that, if correct, suggests the market has made its final high within the triangle. Additionally, the daily chart shows a right-angled broadening pattern that favors a top whenever the horizontal line serves as the lower boundary. While shorting on a break below 1.5925 would be confirming the pattern, the author expresses hesitation given past false signals but would still take that action with a tight risk limit.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    168 views2 pages

    Factor SSR 3.24.11 Gbpusd

    Uploaded by

    Peter L Brandt
    The document summarizes technical signs that the British Pound/U.S. Dollar currency pair (GBPUSD) may have reached a major high and could trend lower going forward. Specifically, the weekly chart displays a possible 26-month symmetrical triangle pattern that, if correct, suggests the market has made its final high within the triangle. Additionally, the daily chart shows a right-angled broadening pattern that favors a top whenever the horizontal line serves as the lower boundary. While shorting on a break below 1.5925 would be confirming the pattern, the author expresses hesitation given past false signals but would still take that action with a tight risk limit.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    Factor Special Situation Report

    March 24, 2011

    Sugar – British Pound/U.S. Dollar

    Summary

    There are some technical signs that the GBPUSD forex pair has made a high of major import and that the
    trend could turn lower for a considerable period of time and magnitude of movement.

    The quarterly chart shows that the market has remained within the confines of a trading range between
    1.40 and 2.05 for the past 26 years (with a few overshoots along the way). The price action since
    December 2008 has been in the bottom half of this price band.

    The weekly chart displays the possibility (and possibility only) of a 26-month symmetrical triangle. If (big if)
    this interpretation is correct, the market may have made or could be in the process of making the final high
    within the triangle. The big question: “Is there any technical evidence of a top at current levels?” To this
    question we look at the daily price graph.

    The daily chart indeed shows the potential of a top. The pattern is called a right-angled-broadening pattern.
    The odd greatly favor a top whenever the horizontal line serves as the lower boundary. You may read
    about this pattern in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Edwards and Magee, pgs 148-15, Fifth Edition.

    The weekly and daily graphs are shown on page 2 of this Special Situation Report.
    While shorting a decisive downside breakout below 1.5925 may a difficult trigger to pull given the sharp
    decline and oversold condition that would lead to the breakout, the pattern exists and cannot be ignored by
    classical chartists. My hesitation to short a breakout is compounded by the many false signals in the forex
    markets since early 2010. But, selling the breakout will be the action I will take because not shorting the
    breakout but being right in the analysis would be a greater regret for me than shorting the breakout and
    being wrong. A close below 1.5925 would confirm the pattern. I will attempt to limit my risk to about 70
    basis points (7/10th of 1%). The initial target of the trade would be 1.5350, then 1.4800.

    ###

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