Chemical Recycling:

Greenhouse gas emission reduction

potential of an emerging waste
management route

Commissioned by

Study review conducted by

October, 2020
00
Dear reader,
In a context where
climate change,
pollution and plastic
waste can significantly
harm our environment, it
is crucial that immediate
actions are taken.

Recent studies have predicted that, without

impact of such technologies? Can chemical
recycling technologies play a role in establishing
a circular and sustainable economy?

Cefic supports the EU Green Deal and Europe’s

ambition to become climate neutral by 2050.
The EU Circular Economy Action Plan is a
a change in the course of action, the annual cornerstone to meet this ambition. Chemical
flow of plastic into the ocean could nearly recycling technologies of end-of-life plastics can
triple by 2040, with a significant impact to the fill an enormous gap in the plastics economy to
marine biodiversity. Improved and additional make it more circular. We invite policymakers
recycling solutions for plastic waste, such to ensure that the right conditions exist across
as chemical recycling technologies, can the EU to promote a competitive economic
complement mechanical and dissolution environment and enable large-scale investments
recycling and reduce the leakage of plastics to to scale up and fully deploy chemical recycling.
the environment.
Still, in order to ensure the full benefits of
Chemical recycling technologies can also these technologies, it is vital they do not put
increase resource efficiency, closing the loop the climate-neutrality goal at risk. This report,
in the transition to a circular economy for commissioned by Cefic, provides a first,
plastics. These technologies can break down valuable contribution to address that concern.
plastics and transform them into secondary
raw materials to produce new chemicals and The conclusion of the report is indeed that
plastics of equivalent quality to those made chemical recycling technologies have the
from fossil resources. potential to avoid greenhouse gas emissions
compared to today’s conventional production
In this report “Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse processes and end-of-life treatments.
gas emission reduction potential of an
emerging waste management route”, Quantis
has addressed the following questions Marco Mensink,
based on existing material flow and life cycle Director General, Cefic
assessment studies: What is the environmental

Disclaimer:
2 CeficRecycling:
| Chemical commissioned Quantisgas
Greenhouse to perform
emissionanalyses
reductionofpotential
key studies and
of an bring forward
emerging waste conclusions
managementand
route
recommendations from its independent viewpoint, in close collaboration with the sector.
01
PART 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PART 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE ISSUE AT HAND

Today, less than 30% of plastic is collected for recyclable by 2030. The EC further describes
recycling in Europe (2018 European Plastics a vision for Europe’s new plastics economy:
Strategy). At the same time, the recycling “Plastics and products containing plastics
rate for glass, paper, and metals in the EU is are designed to allow for greater durability,
over 70% (ME 2019, Pauliuk et al. 2013). In reuse and high-quality recycling. By 2030, all
December 2015, the Commission adopted plastics packaging placed on the EU market
an EU Action Plan for a circular economy. is either reusable or can be recycled in a cost-
There, it identified plastics as a key priority effective manner.” (EC Plastics Strategy 2018).
and committed itself to prepare a strategy Conclusively, then, the issue about plastic
addressing the challenges posed by plastics recycling is not simply about changing consumer
throughout the value chain and taking into behavior or improving collection. Rather, the
account their entire life-cycle’. In 2017, the solution requires systemic and technological
Commission confirmed it would focus on changes in the way plastic is recycled.
plastics production and use and work towards Experts agree that different plastics recycling
the goal of ensuring that all plastic packaging is technologies have to work in a synergistic and

Definition and overview of

chemical recycling — also called
deployable options for widespread recycling of
feedstock recycling plastic waste. Each technology has a different
environmental footprint and subsequent
Feedstock recycling, also known as chemical contribution toward the circularity of plastics.
recycling, aims to convert plastic waste into Whereas examples like pyrolysis (e.g., BASF’s
chemicals. It is a process where the chemical ChemCyclingTM) and gasification (e.g., Enerkem
structure of a polymer is changed and converted in Canada) are currently used at commercial scale,
into chemical building blocks, including monomers, other chemical recycling technologies are only
that are then used again as a secondary raw available in pilot phases. Some chemical recycling
material in chemical processes. Feedstock technologies will most likely enter the plastics value
recycling includes processes such as gasification, chain at the higher end, such as depolymerisation
pyrolysis, solvolysis, and depolymerisation, which toward certain monomers (e.g. polystyrene,
break down plastic waste into chemical building polyamides, or polymethyl methacrylate). Improved
blocks, including monomers, for the production of and additional recycling solutions for plastic waste,
plastics. (Cefic 2020), (ISO 15270 2008) such as chemical recycling technologies, can
complement mechanical recycling and dissolution
Some chemical recycling technologies are recycling, and reduce the leakage of plastics to the
still under development and are not yet viable, environment.

4 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
PART 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

complementary way to achieve higher plastic POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS

recycling rates and develop a stronger circular OF CHEMICAL RECYCLING
economy for plastics. Still, in order to ensure
the full benefits of a low-greenhouse gas (GHG) Development and deployment of new circular
emissions circular economy, it's important that technologies can offer environmental benefits
complementary technologies enable the recycling compared to existing ones, such as reduced
and usage of recycled material as feedstock GHG emissions, reduced primary resource
material with a low overall carbon footprint. usage, or reduced waste. Using recycled
feedstock material enables a concomitant
reduction of primary source- based production
CHEMICAL RECYCLING: and associated resource depletion. Still, to
A VIABLE SOLUTION? assess chemical recycling’s true environmental
impact, its environmental footprint, including
Chemical recycling technologies can respond
GHG emissions avoided, should always be
to our global resource challenge by increasing
considered from the full life cycle perspective.
the proportion of end-of-life plastics that are
For example, if a plastic waste stream is
recycled and provide feedstock, to replace
chemically recycled rather than incinerated,
feedstock from traditional fossil sources. In
emissions avoided by eliminating the need
addition, chemical recycling can contribute to
for incineration should be taken into account
the circular economy by closing material and,
when calculating the end-of-life solution’s
potentially, value chain loops. Chemical recycling
environmental footprint. Figure 1 displays the
is a more sustainable end-of-life management
fossil-based plastics value chain and potential
option for mixed plastic waste compared to
end-of-life treatment options.
incineration, landfilling, or — the worst-case
scenario — environmental leakage to soil and
water bodies.

5 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
PART 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Figure 1 — Value chain of fossil-based plastics, including mechanical and chemical recycling options

ENERGY�GENERATION & SUPPLY

Energy carrier supply
GHG emissions

REFINING
Energy supply CRACKING & �SYNTHESIS PROCESSES
GHG emissions
Energy demand
GHG emissions

PROCESSING INTO �PLASTIC PRODUCTS POLYMERISATION�& COMPOUNDING

Energy demand Energy demand
GHG emissions GHG emissions

Chemical Recycling
FEEDSTOCK�SUPPLY (resulting in e.g. chemical
Mechanical Recycling Chemical Recycling feedstock such as pyrolysis oil
Fossil depletion
(resulting in plastics) (resulting in monomers/ molecules) and synthesis gas)
Embodied energy

Recycling
Incineration
with or without
Landfilling energy recovery

USE END OF LIFE

Product benefits TREATMENT

CHALLENGES AND OUTLOOK

While chemical recycling has great potential in a consistent and comparable way. In order to
to improve plastic recycling rates, avoid GHG get a clear understanding of chemical recyling’s
emissions, reduce fossil-based feedstock environmental performance, future LCA
demand, and promote a circular economy, studies should provide a stronger focus on the
feedstock recycling technologies are still in material efficiency of recycling technologies,
the early stages of industry scale use. For the surrounding infrastructure, transport logistics,
chemical industry, life cycle assessment is the and an appropriate evaluation of the maturity of
key method used to assess the enviromental considered technologies.
benefits and weaknesses of chemical recycling

6 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
02
PART 2
STUDY OVERVIEW
PART 2
STUDY OVERVIEW

A REVIEW OF FOUR PUBLISHED STUDIES

ON CHEMICAL RECYCLING

This analysis summarizes findings on chemical The first two studies mentioned provide an
recycling taken from four recent studies, chosen overview of how a carbon-neutral industry can
to provide a comprehensive and realistic picture be shaped and incentivized from 2030 and
of the environmental benefits of using chemical beyond in Europe and Germany. The latter two
recycling: are Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approaches
that compare existing plastic waste treatments
- Material Economics (2019). Industrial and primarily fossil-based feedstock usage with
Transformation 2050 - Pathways to Net-Zero chemical recycling technologies (pyrolysis) and
Emissions from EU Heavy Industry. [Material the use of recycled feedstock.
Economics (2019)] and Material Economics
(2018). The Circular Economy a Powerful The four studies work with different approaches,
Force for Climate Mitigation Transformative displayed in figures 2 and 3 below.
innovation for prosperous and low-carbon
industry. [Material Economics (2018)]

- Agora Energiewende und Wuppertal

Institut (2019): Klimaneutrale Industrie:
Schlüsseltechnologien und Politikoptionen für
Stahl, Chemie und Zement. Berlin, November
2019. [Agora (2019]

- CE Delft: Exploratory study on chemical

recycling. Update 2019 [CE Delft (2019)]

- BASF SE (2020): ChemCyclingTM:

Environmental Evaluation by Life Cycle
Assessment (LCA). [BASF (2020)].

A special focus has been given to assess GHG

emissions savings and avoidances — or, in
other words, the “carbon balance” of chemical
recycling compared to alternative solutions from
a value chain perspective.

8 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
 PART 2
STUDY OVERVIEW

Figure 2 — Exemplary material flow analysis scheme as used in ME (2018, 2019) and Agora (2019)

ENERGY
PRODUCTION

REFINING POLYMERISATION USE END OF LIFE

ENERGY & Compounding PHASE TREATMENT
PRODUCTION
CRACKING & PROCESSING
REFINING
Synthesis Processes POLYMERISATION INTO PLASTIC USE END OF LIFE
& COMPOUNDING PRODUCTS PHASE TREATMENT

FEEDSTOCK CRACKING & PROCESSING

PRODUCTION SYNTHESIS PROCESSES INTO PLASTIC
PRODUCTS

FEEDSTOCK
PRODUCTION

mass

CO₂ emissions
mass

CO₂ emissions
Figure 2 describes the material flow analysis Economics and Agora Institute studies shows
approach, which summarizes feedstock the most important carbon dioxide emissions
flows, product mass flows, and carbon dioxide along the plastics value chain, and is used
emissions that occur along each process step to predict changes stemming from future
in a fossil-based plastics value chain. The technological developments.
material flow analysis deployed by the Material

9 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
PART 2
STUDY OVERVIEW

Figure 3 — Exemplary life cycle assessment scheme

Chemical Recycling
(resulting in e.g. pyrolysis oil and synthesis gas)

Incineration
with or without energy
recovery

Landfill
POLYMERISATION
& COMPOUNDING

FEEDSTOCK AND ENERGY

PRODUCTION, REFINERY Chemical Recycling
AND CRACKING (resulting in monomers/ molecules)

Recycling Mechanical Recycling

PLASTICS (resulting in polymers)

END OF LIFE LIFE CYCLE

PROCESSING INTO
PLASTICS PRODUCTS

WASTE COLLECTION
AND SORTING

USE

In comparison, Figure 3 depicts the LCA all anthropogenic GHG emissions (e.g., CO2,
approach and shows the holistic life cycle methane, nitrous oxides, etc.) throughout a
of a plastic product (e.g., 1 kg of plastic product’s life cycle. In addition, an LCA can cover
packaging), comparing different recycling avoided emissions if, for example, a by-product
and primary feedstock alternatives based such as heat or secondary plastics enables the
on fixed system boundaries. An LCA covers avoidance of the primary production of energy
various environmental impact categories, or plastics. These avoided emissions can be
including climate change, which summarizes attributed to the original product life cycle, thus

10 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
PART 2
STUDY OVERVIEW

improving the product’s overall environmental The ME and Agora studies base information
performance. about chemical recycling technologies on
scientific literature and technology projections
The CE Delft and BASF studies focus rather than on industrial processing data. As
on technological comparisons, aiming to these studies work with future projections
analyze the environmental impact of using for technologies with low technology
chemical recycling technologies compared readiness levels (TRL), they can be used to
to conventional plastic waste treatment. provide an outlook for the plastics industry,
Both studies clearly show GHG emission but not as true descriptors or performance
savings and benefits from feedstock recycling measurements of currently available or even
compared to plastics production from virgin soon-to-be-available chemical recycling
fossil feedstock. Avoided GHG emissions technologies.
can be attributed to the avoidance of crude
oil extraction and refinement (to naphtha) The CE Delft study uses information from
and avoiding the incineration of end-of-life demonstration plants that are in use, but not
products. necessarily at commercial scale yet. Only the
BASF study relies on production information
In comparison, both the Material Economics at an industrial scale for one chemical
(ME) and Agora studies take a systemic recycling technology (pyrolysis). Information
material flow analysis approach1 and attempt about material efficiency and technology
to prove how feedstock recycling can yields are considered in the BASF study, but
contribute to low industrial GHG emissions are not published or available for the other
from 2030–2050. Both author groups studies. Table 1 and 2 provide an overview of
take technological sector developments the studies used and summarizes their high-
into account, but do not necessarily focus level conclusions.
on a single or specific chemical recycling
technology.

1 Material flow analysis approach: Quantification of incoming and outgoing material flows and stocks as well as occurring carbon dioxide
emissions along the fossil-based value chain.

11 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
Table 1 — Studies overview

MATERIAL FLOW ANALYSIS APPROACH COMPARATIVE LCA APPROACH

Sources ME 2018 and 2019 Agora CE Delft BASF

- Operationality of - Decarbonization - Summary of chemical - Comparison between

Working
circular economy in roadmap for Germany recycling technologies plastics production from
hypothesis Europe - How to incentivize in the Netherlands pyrolysis oil and naphtha,
and - ME 2019: stronger investment in - Links data on suitable additional comparison with
summary focus on circularity innovative technologies waste flows with other end-of-life treatments
through policy indicative key figures for like incineration and
measures climate emissions mechanical recycling

Model - Plastics material - Plastics material flow - Screening LCA model - ISO 14040/44 LCA study
approach flow analysis analysis combined - Comparison between - Critical review by three
combined with with a carbon dioxide the recent status quo independent experts
a carbon dioxide emissions model reference case vs. - Three separate studies
emissions model - Adapted for Germany innovative chemical (waste, product, and plastic
recycling approach quality perspectives)2

- Chemical recycling - Chemical recycling - Reference cases vs. - Waste perspective:

Analyzed
used in the plastics used in the chemicals chemical recycling pyrolysis or incineration of
system industry as industry as technologies mixed plastic waste
complementary end- complementary end- - Reference cases: - Product perspective:
of-life treatment to of-life treatment to recycling losses to plastics based on pyrolysis
existing technologies existing technologies incineration, mixed oil or from primary fossil
plastics to downcycling, resources
PET wastes to be - Plastics quality
stored or incinerated perspective: virgin plastics
with three end-of-life
options

Value chain - Feedstock - Feedstock - Plastic waste - Feedstock, chemical

and electricity and electricity treatment and processes (e.g., steam
steps
production, refining, production, refining, substituted products cracking, polymerization),
cracking and other cracking and other end-of-life treatment
foreground processes, foreground processes, - Substituted products
polymerisation and polymerisation and
blending, end-of-life blending, end-of-life
treatment treatment

Data basis - Eurostat - ME 2018 & ME - CE Delft studies: - Data from existing
- PlasticsEurope Eco- 2019 Ioniqa screening LCA, commercial plants
profiles - UBA Rotterdam report - BASF internal databases
- Zhu et al. 2018 - Calculations made by (AkzoNobel) -Other databases (e.g.,
- IEA technology mix, Wuppertal Institute - PlasticsEurope Sphera/GaBi, Ecoinvent)
decarbonization by - VCI - EUROSTAT
2050 scenario - Destatis - Ecoinvent background
ME 2019: - Industry information model
- DECHEMA 2017 from: SABIC, BASF,
- Thunman et al. 2019 Waste to Chemicals

- 2030–2050 - 2030–2050 - Status quo in 2020 - Status quo in 2020

Time
projection projection combined with projections
horizon toward 2030
- Future development of
pyrolysis and the waste
sector in Germany in 2030

2 Two of the studies are based on mass balance approach. Mass balance accounting is one of several well-known chain of custody approaches,
designed to trace the flow of materials through a complex value chain (Ellen MacArthur Foundation: Enabling a circular economy for chemicals
with the mass balance approach, 2019; https://www.basf.com/global/en/who-we-are/sustainability/whats-new/sustainability-news/2019/
EllenMacArthurfoundation-White-Paper-Mass-balance.html).

12 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
03
PART 3
KEY FINDINGS
PART 3
KEY FINDINGS

Chemical recycling technologies offer - Scope (i.e., processing steps covered in the
the potential to avoid GHG emissions plastics value chain)
that can occur in both the production - Time horizon
of feedstock and from the current
- Model approach (i.e., materials flow analysis
end-of-life treatment of plastic.
versus LCA approach)

The four studies and both approaches used — - Results reported as carbon dioxide emissions
material flow analysis and comparative LCA reductions (material flow analysis) versus GHG
— demonstrate the CO2 reduction potential of emissions reductions (LCA)
chemical recycling. The authors of this summary - Maturity of technologies and data used
emphasize that the four studies considered show
- Geographical scope
major differences in:

Table 2 — Key CO2 emissions results – A detailed analysis of the results can be found in the annex.

MATERIAL FLOW ANALYSIS APPROACH COMPARATIVE LCA APPROACH

Study ME 2018 and 2019 Agora CE Delft BASF

Product perspective Product perspective – Product perspective

(cradle-to-grave): (cradle-to-grave): comparison of plastics
Key GHG
Chemical recycling Chemical recycling based on pyrolysis oil and
emissions can achieve around can achieve around conventional plastics from
savings 0.2 t CO2 per t 0.3 t CO2 per t primary fossil resources
statement plastics produced plastics produced (naphtha):
— compared to — compared to
2.3 t CO2 from the 2.3 t CO2 Conventional production
conventional from conventional of 1 t LD — PE emits, in
production using production using total, 1.9 t CO2eq. For the
fossil feedstock. fossil feedstock. production of 1 t LDPE
via pyrolysis, 2.4 t CO2eq
less CO2 emissions can be
accounted.

Waste perspective — Waste perspective —

comparison of pyrolysis and comparison of pyrolysis and
incineration of mixed plastic incineration of mixed plastic
waste: waste:

Mixed plastic waste is currently Pyrolysis of mixed plastic

incinerated. This produces waste emits 50 % less CO2
a total climate impact of than incineration of mixed
approximately 1.5 t CO2 plastic waste. Specifically,
eq./t input material. Chemical the study found that
recycling (pyrolysis) of the same pyrolysis emits 1 t less CO2
input material results in 1.5 to than incineration per 1 t of
2 t less CO2 eq./t. mixed plastic waste.

14 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
PART 3
KEY FINDINGS

Due to the study differences explained above ME (2018), ME (2019), and Agora (2019)
and displayed in Table 1, direct comparisons attempt to evaluate the degree of impact this
in terms of GHG emissions avoided are not synthesized approach would have by 2050. As
possible, and could be overly simplified. some novel technologies are not yet in use on
a commercial scale, results presented should
be considered only as a forecast that needs
Chemical recycling technologies to be confirmed as soon as the technologies
are expected to play an essential described mature.
role in establishing a circular and
sustainable economy in the chemical CE Delft (2019) deploy an LCA screening
industry. approach to compare the reference case
(status quo) with an already-existing
Mechanical recycling is a common way to alternative (at demonstration scale) for
recycle plastics today. However, not all plastics chemical recycling, and credits the avoidance
can be recycled using this technology, and of naphtha production to producing pyrolysis
plastic waste that reaches recycling facilities oil, compared to the reference case. The
is often contaminated or mixed. This hinders three LCAs conducted by BASF mirror the
recycling rates and results in large quantities CE Delft results with regards to circularity.
of plastics being incinerated, sent to landfills ChemCyclingTM technology, one of the first
or, in worse-case scenarios, leaking into the viable chemical recycling technologies, proves
environment. that pyrolysis can close the plastics loop by
producing LDPE via pyrolysis, including excess
Chemical recycling could play an essential energy substitution.3
role in a circular plastics economy as a
complement to mechanical recycling.
According to ME (2019), the two approaches
combined could bring recirculation of plastics
to as much as 62% of total production by
2050. Plastics would then be nearly as
circular as the major metals (recycling rates
for steel and aluminium are 85% and around
70%, respectively).

3 The ChemCycling pyrolysis generated excess heat, which can be used elsewhere.

15 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
PART 3
KEY FINDINGS

Further learnings from the studies like stream in a steam cracker together with
reviewed the petroleum-derived naphtha. Both feedstock
streams are meant to use the same state-of-
Some additional key learnings identified from the-art cracker technology — meaning this
the ME (2018, 2019), Agora (2019), CE Delft data reference should change in the future.
(2019), and BASF (2020) studies include:
- The Netherlands-focused CE Delft (2019)
- It is hard to predict chemical recycling’s full study uses some primary data from the
environmental impact and GHG emissions industry, but data quality varies. Additionally,
reductions potential due to varying technology information from the industry at demonstration
readiness levels (TRL). As a result, the picture scale needs to be proven to be viable at a
on suitable intake materials, yields, and commercial scale, especially in terms of
substitution potential may be incomplete. emissions, yields, and credits for avoided
production. The study’s sources also include
- The ME and Agora studies describe future some currently immature technologies. For
technology pathways, whereas CE Delft example, the IONIQA process for PET recycling
compares existing technologies at a is at demonstration scale. The technology is at
demonstrative level, and BASF at a commercial TRL-5, meaning energy data and yield might be
scale. too optimistic and need to be improved for use
in further studies.
- The German-focused Agora (2019) and ME
(2018, 2019) studies are based on existing - Plastic waste data (e.g., collection rates,
literature. The assumed chemical recycling sorting, definition of waste streams) and prices
technologies and other innovative chemical are mostly considered as a black box data in all
network technologies (e.g., electrical steam four studies.
cracker) are still in the planning feasibility stage
(low TRL) and are not mature enough to provide
suitable information about process emissions,
yields, and substitution potential.

- The four studies analyzed use averaged data

as references for the olefin/polyolefins based
on Plastics Europe data, which assumes the
use of a classic steam cracker powered by
fossil fuels. However, the plan for chemical
recycling of polyolefins is to feed the naphtha-

16 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
04
PART 4
CONCLUDING REMARKS
PART 4
CONCLUDING REMARKS

Challenges and future steps forward as they both rely on chemical recycling
to implement chemical recycling in technology information that is already available
the European industry at a more mature TRL. In addition, the LCA
approach focusses more on the value chain and
While chemical recycling has great potential depicts the circularity of products in greater
to improve plastic recycling rates, reduce our detail.
reliance on fossil-based feedstock, and promote
a circular economy, feedstock technologies In summary, both approaches show the
are still in the early stages. Major investments environmental benefits of chemical recycling
are needed to accelerate the development of technologies:
technologies to mark and trace the origin of the
different plastic waste types, automate sorting - Chemical recycling can avoid the incineration
and processing, and chemically recycle plastics. of plastics and corresponding end-of-life
Chemical recycling is also not necessarily a GHG emissions, with a favorable overall GHG
plug-in technology, and changes in logistics, emissions balance.
infrastructure, and collection systems are
necessary. This is important for feasibility and - Plastic waste can be used as feedstock
costs, as plug-in solutions are seen as most material, thus avoiding the exploration and
sucessful in the short term. refinement of crude oil and corresponding
GHG emissions, with a favorable overall GHG
Both approaches analyzed — material flow emissions balance.
analysis and LCA — show that chemical
recycling complements and provides an - Process energy (in the case of pyrolysis and
alternative to mechanical recycling. It could play gasification) to heat up systems are self-
an essential role in a future low-GHG emissions sustaining and can replace the need for
economy, as shown by GHG emission savings external energy, since energy comes from the
throughout the plastics value chain. process itself. This makes plastics feedstock
production independent from other fossil
The core strength of the ME and Agora studies resources and avoids GHG emissions from
is their outlook toward a low carbon, circular energy production coming from fossil
economy for plastics by 2050. They also resources as purchased natural gas is
describe in detail the required incentives and avoided.
investments in future emerging technologies,
and the uncertainty in predicted results. - Plastic can become a fully circular material
at a large scale through a smart combination
The CE Delft and BASF studies present LCA- of mechanical and chemical recycling. This
based approaches with likely lower uncertainty finding is especially emphasized in the two

18 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
PART 4
CONCLUDING REMARKS

Material Economics studies and the Agora Future studies should provide a stronger
study, which describe chemical recycling as focus on:
a complementary technology to mechanical - Material efficiency for both complementary
recycling. recycling methods — mechanical and chemical
- Time horizon for the considered technology
Assessing the overall carbon footprint savings or
“avoided emissions” of new technologies requires - Surrounding infrastructure such as
a full life cycle perspective. The chemical electricity grid mixes, waste collection, and
industry uses the standardized LCA approach to sorting
measure and describe the carbon footprint/GHG - Transport logistics
emissions from chemical recycling technologies - TRL of the technologies used
contributing to plastics circularity.

The LCA-based studies presented provide

LCA is the key method used to assess the preliminary insights on GHG emissions savings
enviromental benefits of chemical recycling in using chemical recycling technologies compared
a consistent and comparable way. The method to less sustainable end-of-life management such
provides clear guidance to: as incineration. Future LCA-based studies can
- Avoid potential double counting help provide further data for making such claims.
- Set clear system boundaries to depict the Industry participation remains important in order
plastics value chain and establish a systemic to support future studies with real process
approach to compare systems and respective information, as both the CE Delft and BASF
functions used (e.g., comparison of end-of-life studies demonstrate.
options for plastics or plastics produced from
different feedstocks)

19 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
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Plastics Europe (2019) Eco-profiles. https://www.plasticseurope.org/en/resources/eco-profiles.

Zhu et al. (2018) Zhu, J.-B., Watson, E. M., Tang, J. and Chen, E. Y.-X. (2018). A synthetic polymer system with
repeatable chemical recyclability. Science, 360(6387). 398–403. DOI:10.1126/science.
aar5498.

20 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
Annex
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF GHG
EMISSIONS AVOIDED AND
UNDERLYING MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
The studies considered here follow different ways PET, PS, PUR) based on the ecoprofiles published
of estimating GHG emissions from chemical by Plastics Europe (2019), the market share of
recycling and its potential savings. Materials different polymers (Plastics Europe 2018), and a
Economics 2018, 2019, and Agora attempt to Deloitte study (2015). ME (2018)’s reported 2.5 t
project a low GHG emissions economy by using a CO2eq values is based on the same assumptions
material flow analysis. The material flow analysis using ecoprofiles data available up to 2018.
applies alternative technologies, predicted for
use in Europe (ME 2018, ME 2019) or Germany Concurrently, to arrive at 0.2 t CO2eq per ton of
(Agora 2019) in the future (2030–2050). In plastics, ME (2019) builds off DECHEMA (2017)
comparison, CE Delft (2019) deploys a life and explores two chemical recycling processes —
cycle assessment (LCA) screening approach to gasification and pyrolysis — that convert plastics
analyze the technological status quo of chosen into simpler molecules. Low-CO2 hydrogen from
chemical recycling technologies in demonstration either electrolysis or steam methane reforming
scale against a reference system, described as with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a
state-of-the-art plastics disposal (incineration major input in gasification. For pyrolysis, the
or mechanical recycling) in the Netherlands. central contributor to reduced GHG emissions
BASF (2020) presents a critically reviewed ISO is the electrification of the cracker stage. For
14040/44 LCA study that provides an overview low emissions, the overall carbon mass balance
of the environmental benefits, including GHG must be very high so that the amount of CO2
emission savings, for their industrial scale pyrolysis released is minimal. In a net-zero system, nearly all
technology. carbon inputs must be transformed into product
outputs. For gasification, this requires adding
ME (2019) states that chemical recycling could more hydrogen. For pyrolysis, another process
achieve very low atmospheric emissions of around step must be added so the fuel-grade by-products
0.2 t CO2eq per ton of plastics compared to the from cracking (largely methane) are not burnt and
2.3 t CO2eq from the state-of-the-art production release CO2, but are further processed into high
of fossil feedstock necessary to produce raw value chemicals (HVCs) instead. If this is done, the
material feedstock. percentage of carbon that escapes as CO2 can be
below 5% of the total.
This 2.3 t CO2eq figure is associated with the
material acquisition and pre-processing life cycle In the pyrolysis route, plastics waste is processed
stages: feedstock and electricity production, into naphtha-like pyrolysis-oil, which is used to
refining, cracking and other foreground processes, produce HVCs through steam cracking. The fuel
polymerisation and blending. It has been calculated gas consists predominantly of methane, which can
as a weighted average of the emissions factors be further processed into methanol and olefins
of the most common plastics types (PE, PP, PVC, through methanol to olefins (MTO) to increase the

21 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
Annex
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF GHG
EMISSIONS AVOIDED AND
UNDERLYING MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
yield. These steps result in a total yield of 0.9 kg Additionly, due to the diverse technologies
plastics per kg plastic waste, and CO2 emissions and environmental performance used, it is not
of 0.3 kg CO2 per kg of plastics produced. In advisable to view chemical recycling as a singular
the gasification route, plastic waste is gasified process technique. For example, the impact of
into sweet syngas with the addition of hydrogen, techniques such as pyrolysis and gasification are
followed by methanol synthesis and subsequently, estimated between 0 to -0.5 t CO2eq/t input,
production of plastics through MTO. This route while the impact of techniques that break down
results in a total yield of 0.9 kg plastics per kg of polymers into monomers for direct use (such as
plastic waste, and CO2 emissions of 0.15 kg CO2 depolymerisation and solvolysis), is estimated up
per kg plastic waste, assuming zero to low CO2 to -1,5t CO2eq/t input. More details are provided
production of hydrogen. below:

Provided that chemical production systems have - Recycling rejects are currently incinerated in
been adapted to accommodate the required AECs. This produces a total climate impact
technological adjustments, emissions associated of approximately 1.5 t CO2eq/t input material
with chemical recycling could be as low as 0.2 t (including credit from avoided energy production).
CO2eq per ton of plastics. Chemical recycling, by contrast, results in a
It is also important to note the end-of-life climate impact between 0 and -0.5 t CO2eq/t
emissions savings that chemical recycling input material. Compared to AECs, emissions
may offer. Incineration is a common end-of-life associated with the process are lower (only use
treatment, and results in a further 2.7 t CO2eq/t of energy, no combustion of plastics), while in
of plastic waste. These are CO2 emissions from particular syngas and diesel-type are produced.
embedded carbon released during incineration, This production avoids other production chains
without taking into account avoided emissions (natural gas, conventional diesel). The total
from energy credits during incineration. reduction in climate impact, then, amounts to
ME (2018) describes CO2 emissions of 1 kg CO2/ 1.5 to 2.0 t CO2eq/t recycling failure. It should be
kg processed plastic waste based on a scientific noted, however, that the study’s authors mainly
article by Zhu et al. (2018). use data from demonstration plants and deemed
process emissions in particular as too optimistic
CE Delft (2019) notes that the climate compared to what might be emitted from
change impact differs by recycling technique. processes deployed at a commercial scale.

4 The value has been calculated based on IPCC (2006), using the following formula:
kg CO2 = kg waste for incineration * oxidation factor of carbon in incinerator (0.98) * conversion factor of C to CO2 (3.67) * Σ(waste fraction (%) * dry
matter content (%) * carbon content (g/g dry weight)).
The dry matter content of plastic waste is equal to 1. The carbon content of plastic waste is 0.75 (g C/g dry weight waste). Moreover, the end-of-
life emissions vary between different plastics types. The emissions are higher for incineration of e.g. PS and PE (around 3 kg CO2/kg plastics) and
lower for e.g. PP and PUR (around 2.5 kg CO2eq/kg plastics). In summary, ME (2019) and ME (2018) have used 2.7 kg CO2eq/kg plastics for all
incinerated end-of-life plastics

22 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
Annex
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF GHG
EMISSIONS AVOIDED AND
UNDERLYING MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
-F
 or the mixed plastic stream (DKR 350) that is processed in Germany.
produced from source-separated material, the o It has been assumed that the selected
climate impact of chemical recycling techniques techniques can be used on a large scale and
is estimated to be the same as the impact that the selected plastic waste streams are
of recycling failure. However, the reference is appropriate.
different. The mechanical recycling of DKR 350 o It has been assumed that products made during
into plastic recyclate for thick-walled applications processing are marketed (thus avoiding other
("processing DKR 350") produces a climate production chains). For example, it has been
impact of approximately -0.5 t CO2eq/t input assumed that all syngas that would be produced
material. This is partly because the use of the by integrated hydropyrolysis could be used in the
recyclate prevents the production of steel and Netherlands, preventing conventional production.
virgin plastic. Reduction of the climate impact of o The climate impact of transport when importing
chemical recycling, therefore, is between -0.5 t plastic waste is not included.
CO2eq/t DKR 350 (climate impact increases) and
0 t CO2eq/t DKR 350 (climate impact remains The waste perspective study from BASF (2020)
the same). states that pyrolysis of mixed plastic waste
emits 50% less CO2 than the incineration of
-F
 or PET waste, mechanical recycling results in a mixed plastic waste. From a product perspective
climate impact of -2.3 t CO2eq/t, while chemical (comparison of plastic production from pyrolysis
recycling (magnetic depolymerization) results oil and naphtha), CO2 emissions are saved when
in -1.5 t CO2eq/t. In both cases, the result is plastics are based on pyrolysis oil instead of
negative because the production of virgin PET is crude oil based naphtha. The study shows this
prevented. However, in this comparison it should for the production of LDPE. 1 t LDPE produced
be noted that mechanical recycling is not a from pyrolysis oil emits 2.3 t less CO2 than 1 t
perfect reference technique for the PET trays. LDPE produced from fossil naphtha. From a third
-M
 ain assumptions and considerations: perspective (plastic quality), BASF concludes
o It has been assumed that mechanical recycling, that the manufacturing of plastics using either
magnetic depolymerization, and solvolysis chemical recycling (pyrolysis) or complementary
takes place in the Netherlands. However, these mechanical recycling of mixed plastic waste
processes also replace the production of virgin both result in similar CO2 emissions. The study
PET and EPS. It has been assumed that two- shows that CO2 emissions strongly depend on
thirds of this virgin production takes place in the material losses after the sorting plant and
the Netherlands and one-third abroad, based the product quality of the secondary plastics.
on statistical data on the import and Dutch The specific application of mechanical recycling
production of plastics. determines whether one ends up with lower CO2
o Currently, the DKR 350 fraction is mainly emissions compared to chemical recycling.

23 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route
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24 | Chemical Recycling: Greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of an emerging waste management route