A Theory of Market Segmentation
A Theory of Market Segmentation
A Theory of Market Segmentation
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We shall assume that the I,-functions are all linearby Equation 3, using the matrices in the table.
(a reasonable assumption, as demonstrated by the Before changing the profit equation developed in
following example). Thus, we may write Stage 1 to include the existence of promotional media
with specific characteristics, we will invoke two sim-
plifying assumptions. Suppose that for legal reasons,
k=l
Xij = 1 biljkk , the firm decides not to follow a strategy of price dis-
where the "media characteristic paramaters" crimination.
bijk That is, the price to each customer is to
bepromo-
represent the contribution of the kth kind of the same so that pi = p for all i. Suppose also that
Media (n = 3)
Customer Nonprice competition
(N = 3) variable (m = 2) Consumer maga- Consumer maga- Trade
zine A (prestige) zine B (pulp) magazine
the distribution costs are the same for all customers so available even fo
that c% = c in all cases. These assumptions are made (possibly except fo
only for convenience (the notation is simpler if the sub- tions). Instead of
scripts on p and c are omitted). The model's develop- audience data are
ment does not depend on these assumptions, nor do graphic and socio
we suggest that they are realistic. most, coverage ma
Recall from the numerical example that the elements for certain key pr
of the media vector y are dimensioned in physical terms, extend our Stage 2
e.g., number of exposures or number of shelf facings. tion constraints.
Let the vector w' = wl, w2, ... w, be the per unit
Stage 3: Microsegmentation
costs of using the media. For example, if wl = one
cent, a one-unit "buy" in medium 1 (the high-status Suppose that media circulation is known only for a
magazine in the example) will cost one cent per ex- total of M mutually exclusive and exhaustive consumer
posure or ten dollars per thousand. Substitution of classes, which are defined by socioeconomic, demo-
Equation 3 for x, ,w' for v'i , and setting pi = p and graphic, or similar variables. (These classes will be
ci = c in Equation 1 yields the following Stage 2 called media descriptor classes or, alternatively, micro-
profit equation: segments.) The media characteristic coefficient matrices
now refer to the descriptor classes rather than to
II = R - C = (p - c) Efj(p, B y) individual customers--we have B, = 1,... M,
(4) i
where, for example, a given matrix might refer to
- w'y -personsg
"high-income, high-educated over 65." In (
principle, these matrices can be determined from
Equationaudience
4 must
survey information.4 Introducing descriptorbe
the n elements of
classes leads to the following modification of the Stage y
Differentiation
2 decision rule presented in Equation 5: wi
ple aggregation of
(p - c( - MC) Z blik ajf
(p - c- MCZ - -
ap (6) I ?x axij
= wk;k = 1, .; n,
(This relation is the same for all subsequent models
where the
and will not be considered further.) notation
The iel means all persons within the
derivative
with respect to a given medium Ith descriptor cell.
variable yk is:
It is obvious from Equation 6 that the constraint
II 0 = (P - c) a afi xij Wk
ing of all members in each media descriptor class.
on media audience information leads to equal weight-
disaggregative
if we are to obtain estimates of the response microsegments,
derivativesit seems reasonable to
in (6). use these media descriptors to build more aggregative
Empirical analyses of sales response to price or demand descriptor classes. Therefore, we define a
promotional variables may be discussed in terms of macrosegment as follows: macrosegment h consists of
either individual or aggregative demand functions. the customers in media descriptive cells leh. This defi-
The first approach is very difficult. The only substantive nition ensures that it will be possible to make media
effort to deal with individual demand functions of decisions for each segment. Since media characteristic
which we are aware is included in Duhammel's study coefficients can be found for each microsegment 1,
[1]. Though the results were interesting, they do not the media characteristics for macrosegments h can
give us confidence in the practical efficacy of a fully be found by simple aggregation.
disaggregative approach. If we are to conduct moreThe promotion rule for Stage 3 (Equation 6) is
aggregative statistical demand analyses, however, we easily modified to accommodate the higher level of
must decide how much to aggregate and on what varia- aggregation.
bles the process should be based. Equation 6 gives an
immediate answer-at least in part. According to the (p - c - MC)Z> l { blik}
results of Stage 3 we can always aggregate to the level (7) j h leh ch jet axl
of the smallest microsegment for which media informa- =wk ,k= 1, .. n.
tion is commonly available.
But aggregation to the level of (6) may not be enough.
Demand function analysis involves estimation of the The sensitivity
written termto{~eh
simply as afh/axhi E~_,that
emphasize afi/axij}
it refers might be
change in sales to be expected per unit change to inthe aggregate demand function for the hth macro-
promotion, but media audience research concerns segment.
average audience levels for descriptor classes. If
Stage 5: The "Mass Market" Concept
we consider data sources for these analyses, it be-
comes apparent that sample sizes sufficient to measure It will be useful to present another generalization of
the elements of B1 for a given descriptor class, withour market segmentation model, this one correspond-
reasonable degree of accuracy, may be insufficienting to to the case in which no segmentation strategy is
measure Ea af/laxi . As Frank and Massy [2, 3], practiced at all. Profit maximization without segmenta-
and others have shown, the estimation of response tion leads to the following decision rule for promotion:
coefficients is not easy. Even if the analysis is based
on time series data, the time series must be based on
the buying behavior of a sufficient number of families (8) j 1=1 Z=1 el (?xijl (P - c - MC) { blik }{ zf}
to avoid gross instabilities.
Since the sample sizes necessary to estimate response
= wkk = 1, ..., n,
sensitivities for a given microsegment must often where
be the first term in the brackets represent
rather large, the researcher is faced with two alterna-
impact of medium k in terms of promot
tives: (1) using the maximum number of descriptorfor all numbers of the population, and the se
cells, and hence a very large overall sample size, isorthe derivative of the total market demand function.
(2) aggregating over descriptor classes to form a smallerAs easily recognized, (8) is the same as (7) if there is
number of new classes with adequate numbers of re- only one inclusive macrosegment.
spondents in each, while keeping the total sample within
bounds. The total sample size for a study is often fixed SOME IMPLICATIONS OF THE THEORY
(as when working with syndicated panel data), in
which case the second alternative is the only feasible The theoretical models presented in the preced
one. Or perhaps the cost of data collection precludes section have several implications for both the ph
phy
using a large overall sample size. Finally, the cost of and practice of segmentation.
audience research is usually absorbed by the mediaFirst, it seems clear that segmentation shou
(or agencies), suggesting that larger sample sizes will considered
be as a process of aggregation rather tha
possible there than for product or brand specific sensi-aggregation. For example, recall that the the
five stages dealt with the full range of segment
tivity analyses, if only because the costs can be divided
among many users. possibilities. That is Stages 1 and 2 treat indiv
consumer units as segments; Stage 3 deals wit
This reasoning implies that aggregation beyond the
gregation of consumer units into microsegm
minimal descriptor class sizes dictated by available
media audience statistics will be the rule rather thanStage 4 considers aggregations of microsegm
the exception if statistical methods for estimating de- into larger groups (macrosegments), and Sta
mand sensitivities are to be used practically. How deals with the mass market or complete aggreg
of consumers.
should the aggregation be performed? Given the po-
tentialities of media research for dealing with relatively It should be obvious that if consumers have different
particular,
responses to the firm's we consider the question
marketing of how media a
variables
descriptorin
are no scale diseconomies cells (microsegments)
fitting should be allocated
specialize
to individual consumers, segmentation at th
to macrosegments.
individual consumer units
It is clear that(the case
if the response of
derivatives forthe
all mi- p
discriminating monopolist)
crosegments included in would yield m
each of the macrosegments
profits. However, this discussion
are identical, showed
Equation 7 is merely a factored form of
if the dubious assumption
Equation 6. For the of jth typeno scale
of nonprice eco
competition
the marketing mix is we have:
valid, other constraint
preclude this form of segmentation. For exa
of information about the response characte
1 iet aX;j h ich
groups reached by promotional media and in E blik E Z { blik
constraints on the flexibility of their use requi
gation at least to the level of fEZE fi , k=1, 1) n,
microsegments
IEh jet 3oxi)
Additional aggregation to macrosegments
mately to a single segment-may
if be required
of difficulties in measuring response differ
specific groups.
It is easy to see that addition offxij_ic*afX9ij
Sicl for all i, l*eh.
of the succes
straints and corresponding higher levels of a
must reduce the level (Recall of
that we canthe
do nothing about any possibility
firm's profit. (
ment ignores research costs
that the af//xij are heterogeneous required
within a given mi- to im
crosegment without changing audience
given level of segmentation.) That research pro- is, the app
Stage 1 segmentationcedures.)
yields more profit tha
Stage 2 more than Stage This consideration3, suggests
etc. that forThis a given kind is
of a dir
competitive activity
of the mathematical properties of constrain it will be useful to form segments
such that
unconstrained maxima. Thus the fundament
of market segmentation can be characterized
the point at which the marginal reduction
caused by the imposition variance
of ( ,janother
for leh, cons
level of aggregation,is asis small just
as possible forbalanced
each of the macrosegments.by the
reduction in research and administration costs made
This means that microsegments (1) should be assigned
possible by the constraint. to macrosegments (h) in such a way that the within-
We argued earlier that this balance will likely occur
group variances of microsegment response coefficients
at the macrosegmentation stage. Thus the basicare re-
as small as possible relative to the between-group
source allocation problem in segmentation involves variance.5 (The media characteristic coefficients blik
finding the values of the controllable marketing varia-
are not included in the variance formula because the
bles that bring the decision rule in (7) to equality.
macrosegments must be developed before a specific
The problem of finding the solution to (7) can be handled
promotional program is chosen.)
with standard mathematical programming procedures Macrosegment formation requires grouping micro-
when the necessary data have been collected and the
segments by similarities among their promotional
macrosegments have been defined. Though the problems
responses. How can information on the response de-
of finding a solution are not trivial, they will not be
rivatives for each microsegment be obtained? It will
explored here.
generally be necessary to determine the kind of pro-
The concept that segmentation is a process of ag-motional variables that are likely to be used in the
gregation implies building to a viable segmentation
marketing mix and define specific response variables
strategy rather than tearing a market apart to find one.
for each of them. (The change in the buying probability
This may be a fine point in regard to the philosophy
caused by an additional advertising exposure would
of segmentation, but it appears to be important for
be one such measure.) Often it will be necessary to
the implementation of the strategy. It is impossible
useto
surrogates for the response variables, as when the
form meaningful market segments without taking
institutional and information constraints into account
5 The average within-group variance will surely decline as more
and this means building from the point at which the
macrosegments are permitted, assuming that optimal allocations
constraints are felt, namely from persons to micro-
are made at each stage. As noted earlier, the question of determining
segments to macrosegments. the optimal number of segments must be resolved by analyzing the
trade-off between costs of research and marketing administration
Criteria for Forming Macrosegments (which rise with the number of segments considered) and the gains
to be expected from reductions in within-group variance. The analy-
Let us now consider some implications of the theory
sis will depend on factors specific to problem and product class and
for the formation of meaningful macrosegments. In is beyond the scope of this article.