Uni Pes ations : ip between demand and supply forecasting techniques “inthe HR planning process. a ak management system (IIMS) en supply forecasting and succession | disadvantages ofthe following spec ply of an organi Is and management inventories ssion/replacement analysisIDS IN THE CANADIAN LAB jon of the Canadian | The compasitl past fow decades ged quite significantly in th ch and will continue to be ho conve more diverae in t text few decades, Woment participation In the labour force has increased, And whereas ir 98) there were about six working-age Canedian® for aged 65 and over that than live in 2010, and is projected pee by 2031 Jon is projected to grow much laster than the non-Aboriginal population: Andsince the Aboriginsl population is much yous than the average Conadian, with & median ag@ ARAIRABIo! only 26.5 years, compared ta 39.5 years iow all Canacions, they can be a source of labour ISueply, The change in the source countries of immi- ‘rants arriving from non-European countries SNCS the 1980s has also contributed to the increé’ing versity of the Canadian labour force: In 1981, only ‘bout 14 percent ofall immigrants were from Asia, nt in 2006 and but that has increased to 41 perce’ is projacted to account for 55 percent ofall Imm crants to Canada by 2031. The preportion of immmi= grantedrom Africa has also been increasing and Is also projected to rise in the next two decades. Visible minorities, who accounted for or ' percent of the Cenadian labour force in 1981, af@ projected to ieach 33 percent of the labour force by 2031. In certain provinces, such as Ontario and British Columbia, this: number may reach 40 percent, every pecion umber has decreased to less to be Joss than thr The Absriginal populat JOUR FORCE @ Province has done BS nly _in the Philippines projections by Stetistic According (@ the latest ‘and South Asions wil Jo, by 7031, the Chinese vie groups, the Black and Filipina tire, and the Arab and Wes remain the larg pe will dovbie ill grow the fastest, most likly grou Asien populations tripling In alte Mo vada’s increesingly diverse workiorce wil al role in filing the Impending talon ad in the opening vignette jn ansure Canada’s prospenty the global stage, Canadian trganizations in both the private ond public sec fo will naed to atrract and fully ulllze the Human capital of all Canadians. in Gender, race/ethnicity, and Immigration stats, Rob Norris, the provincial Minister for ‘Advanced Education, agrees that there is already 2 "ts jn Saskatchewan—a struggle to find talent to sus tain and enhance Saskatchewan's growth. Norris suggested that attracting additional Saskatchewan Métis and First Nations people and inmigrarts Into the workforce would also help to decrease the number of job vacancies in the province. The ‘extensive recruitment of workers to fill vacancies in the hospi Other sectors such 25 mechanicel early Jearning schools, and retire- ‘the value in hiring visible ploy an integ shortage a9 di Chapter 5. In order to © and compatitivanass on respective of their age, Employment and Labour, alent challenge” tality sector. repair facilities, “ment facilities are seeing minorities." we examined a variety of methods used to forecast procedures (e.g., trend analysis, the Delphi tech- que) can also be used to determine personnel splying personnel to meet organizational 5 is quite simple, Our personnel must be sr internal (current employees) or external 1 ‘organization), or more commonly, ions give preference to internal I training and ‘devel~pment, and netquent promotion, eRables the op ee (0 ill Job openings include nee a Job openings include the follg sour employees are already socialized to Fiore amples oahy stil consideration to Your wing: a nization. the norm: of your OTB! , ms, rules, and procedures o.oo possess detailed knowledge (as listed Apenelr performance and KSAS over time experience): ontheir HRMS skil invento 5 skill inventories) (©, workchistory and ‘ we now turn our attention to this late latter point Me negn current workforce membe concerning organizational aot tbers—namely skills and management a IWENTORIES anit sep In SUPP analysis isan examination of The Ur arrent employees. kil inventories and management inventories cn 186 ormation on the capabilites of your employees? A skills Rey eas ‘ajwdualized personnel record held on each employee except those ee compensation band, emergency notificatior 1 rea a er aT ee diplomas or degrees completed, including the area of specialization, dates gf attendance, and names of the institutions attended) 4 Work history (eg» date of hire, sentority, current jab and supervison and previous jabs held in the organization and the datesassociated with them) 4,Performance ratings (Le., a numerical score of the employee's history of performance in jobs in the organization) «career information (e.g, future jobs desired by employee and those recommended by supervisors) é Hobbies and interests (Including community and volunteer associations), and willingness to relocate? a This skills inventory record is entered into an organization's HRMS database and can be searched when looking for people with the skills and competencies required by a specific job. For this reason, skills inventories ‘mustbe kept current, and employees should be given frequent ‘opportunities to update or correct their personal entries; otherwise, an employee may not be considered for ajob thathe or she could fill successfully. Management inventories can be con: tories, because they contain all the above in! sidered to be enhanced skills inven- formation and the following: 1, Ahistory of management or professional jobs held = 2. Arecord of management or professional training courses and their dates , of completion sills inventory ir panagement oF professional pesitions, Typically, asks fnventory contains Coa eer) ir prmation for each individual on the following areas: empicyse except those 7 ; currently in management 4, personal information (e.g, name, employee number, job classification and oF Ropar powtone ‘Management inventory ‘An individualized per- sonnel record for mana- gerial, professionel, or technical personnel that includes all elements in the skills inventory with the adklition of informa tion on specialized duties, responsibilities, and accountabilitiesat save nosy | space (wonton ; rauecennton He 98 Oe sbacted gl pe oie sie nee of Movement inane nie na BOD | | enn inner FS | 6 bon 219 fan Cotes Les PORTA casei sas tt BIAS oR \\ | Roderick Aarandon au ven ora 15 “ Korma Jon goons vr Syaterne (C70) ~y [ Gonats tanrtin al Access tothe success | nfidential ie vy e highly cor vapporting documentation, mug to oe to know” basis 10 such people a | ad Oe ‘ional executive, | id Hmited on a y staff, and divisi ns, se ae a HR, HR planning a solely to their own area q ior aeausiaa shod ce cost fi consider hizoc hea 4 by divisional « Ae acid a responsibility.” Although a a ae succession plans, as ta “ona subordinates in the process of det it to ensure that other employe sale ate igement inventories are caren divisions, or are working ly a =o a been transferred oe ee tamer cuineavll not be oe poked from those for which they Tea ratty eae capebllter ol t fact, such employees will be Identified k ‘ant for just corporations, Hp HR supply and succession aren't import Planning Today 7.1 discusses the Importance of planning for succession in family | businesses, iment succession planning doc replaces The first type of document used in succession a succession/replacement chart. As resembles a typical organizational cl hlerarchy and the key jobs with thei on closer inspection, the succession planning is referred to ay you will notice from Figure 7.1, it closely hart in that it represents the organizational | e detailed {nformation on each job, specifically, the name of the current job incumbent and a shortlist (determined by managers in conjunction with the HR staff) of the {oP Internal candidates who might replace the Incumbent if and when he or she Suttersion rendiness code ivaves the fob. . Code listed next to th tamed ofa Bolertah is oe Important aspect of the Succession/replacement chart is the succession Wecostors; contains to, readiness code, which is listed next to the names ements of information ontains two e essential for succession planning: (1) the employee's level of performance in the currant job and (2) the i 8» represented by ~ outstanding and § = ¢ bl 2. The employee's readiness for mov (ene lement sample ais or ray nab ready within ane yea oMetON (6, A = ae ‘ment or promotion Feady in two years), D = nop suitable for this ‘pment [i.e,, probably le for this job)of Canad’: farily businosece tM qis's due to a lack of succemsig, 4.3 million parttime jobs tb nesses becouse of the persgngy no” nigh standards of credibliny an cet Bios poco cheng snd 227 Tllecting a failure to Dealect of the success Process. ay ess owners doubt they bow out of Waht on the situa ‘vers plan to 1 By including the two elem a lents of the su, each employee on the succession chart qn eS08 coding next othe name of ddmiedly incomplete picture ory te abe to get a acurans ey state ment and for the entire organisagen rt” "UCCession readiness foreach dreary tial of employees after they complet te a series of tests) to fur ie on potential successors, eee One of the key benefits of a succes: i s i sion/replacement chart is that it allows us to’identify what are referred to as only or chain effects: one promotion in the organization can cause several mavements in the organization as a series of subordinates are promoted to fil the sequential openings.'° The succession/replacement chart, with its graphic illustration of ripple or chain effects, allows us to determine HR blockages or problem areas. For example, the organization might not be able to immediately promote-a top- performing potential successor to a particular position because no subordinates to the potential successor are trained and ready to replace him or her. The suc- cessor who was rated second, but who has ensured that his or her departmental subordinates have been properly trained by being exposed to increasingly more challenging job assignments and are therefore ready to be promoted them- selves, might be chosen by the organization to replace the jobholder leaving, The second document produced for succe: referred to as a succession/replacement table (se: the succession/replacement chart gives an important representation of the state of succession rea 4 .ssion/replacement tal or the entire organization. The succe: succession/replacement chart in that it provides a Pa ernalsteero specific job, the incumbent jobholder, and all potentia NL mast half (44 percent of eee sssion/replacement planning is .e Table 7.1). We have seen how it yet incomplete pictorial diness throughout a department ble complements the dditional information on each of the operations, To cast» fan 0m, 27 percent of the family bus ee ecre within five years, a furhet 29 per tet years, and 22 percent in eleven to Ripple or chain effects ‘The effect caused when ‘one promation or transfer in the organization causes several other personnel movements in the organi- zation as a series of subordinates are promoted to fil the sequential openings sia ul disaster for organ n spl x fr orn sales operations eeyerm conte. HR Plann cir 1R supply in the Jong-ter™, amor, Canadge inside sions that don't co ob ch key J red for €2 table Is prepared (9 on/replacernent ta or the HR pla ides ment chart prov! ping mana} In considering th the top £W9 OF thr te Is that promoting any h the succession/replacement chart] ry opreasoa let Cae seaidates and their succession Cod jor a variety of reaso) places andidates uals might be problematic fo to the succession/replacemeny hese ind ry of training). By turning s, not just the shortiig, ther performance or lack of training), By turning tothe suc thelr paforman O al t ation code for each can. De eee eae ts eer Lie code combinatior de ar Tyra sere of alhanumerc he succession/replacement char, Ate formation not presented,on dl a Mh era slimtations (e@. using the coding sition [421], with 61 being because of space limitations (oe pe sssion/replacement tabie Se rent position). Succes: ene te numer of month nthe cl sal cates ano reco a the number o| i the arcane preferences ag codes summarize information on personal creer 278 sworn px = fun historia at on performance appre) fami. $08 and so on, all of which ma} Be Pdi onthe sucein/repeceent har rutin © reste jent tables an Be eth ea oat ceneeh acme Inia Once we Heal ae Se RO succession/replacement analysis, other instruments o! ai have used these two on eer ata S i ic es or prol details concerning specific job blockag Riehl LEA eS ERA eae en ar ld A comprehensive study on global attitudes to aging and, ‘etirement published in 2004 shows that adhtional ~ fulfilment, but are less focused on family or for many people « health than are other ‘countries. reac ing of the pest 80 percent “6 The French view theca Years as a time of dreams screp mandatory retirement and tions, but also as.a time of worry, and want 75 percent Fens o keep werking in their maturity. The study inter d about being a burden to 77,000 adults in ten nations and territories; their families. #2, China, France, India, Japan Heng Kong, * The British view later life as time of sel Merico, the United States, and the United Kingdom. tn sufficiency, independence, and Personal Sis Of the ten societies surveyed, alternating work and ‘sponsibility, counting on neither government. leisure was seen by the ‘majority as the ideal lifestyle, or family to care for them. Highlights from the study include; * Brazilians view f * Canadians view their | later years as a time of reinvention, ambition, and close relationships with friends and family, Ss. and friends, and they * Americans view their | paneant suppor from their children. for-opportunity, ny er later Yea18 25 a time exlcans See it a5'9 time for continued work” 1, NEW careers, and Spiritual . and hard-eamed financial stability.Bcets whllelakior gage econ + Resp jong Kon 1d suppor ae rest, relaxation, it aes i on, dnd Ma ak aime Ss cnulated wealth, which is seen as thee nea of well-being. areas Eee GSMA ca SEAT ot choose wher snd how oor gegional Breakdow ” of Retirement Rules by P Ss by Province/Territory aaa TNS ianaion treneacage ee ae - — é andor feremant ook eed ara 200 a lo mandatory retirement aut —_ Ae ees ee ‘Ne mando tener age but conpaneralonedio avons Funda ores ee SSndterackSuiralfenciorparcion'pisn” New Ww to eliminate mandatory retirement toc ender fy torent jock offen May 2007 N No mandatory retirement age = * Noa St ES = te erin randatof/ aiamant ook after uly 2009 No mandatory retirement age = , ae jaws sion te mandatary referent took effec envery 2008 pance Edward Island No mandatory retirement retirement age Quebec © fo mandatory retitementage Saskatchewan Law to eliminate mandatory retirement took effect November 2007 Yukon No mandatory retirement age oF Rising Life Expectancies” 2005. The tudy was conducted by market Fadesin “The Futu‘e of Retirement in 2 Work re cactve under the guidence of HSBC end Age Wave; CBC News “Mandatory Rourerent Sources: HSBC. research company Herris Canada,” October 18, 2010. hires from external ment to process new etailed information workforce and the resultant require! er 8 contains further di sources become much clearer.'* Chapt on succession planning/management. Markov Models yporary supPly- Markov modeis are the most side HR planning applications: tional and personnel planning process to be most useful in stable work envirom used for contem| are widely used in both educa: re, they have been found paths are better popular technique 13 These models 5.14 Furthermo} ments where career Netresp an arte (usin * Oot eermines the Pattern py 7 models dere ryobs.)" Markov anal. Merboy model detined, A Mark rystem fabs! Maroy ana Aimed ar pchies of varius moveinent ons) : seatel marten cinploye ‘When consideriN &Mplaye, sible options: Jos of natrices tat data cion etal the various pat ysls produces 4 seri ob in the Or foyer has five Pe sin th naam he wie val 01) scorch movement patterns In a current job ; 1. Remaining in the Sete aie 2 Promotion ia higher lassie? ig ste ee ra ge termination, yor volun nthe job (eg termina employee) eee .. 5. Demotion (which (s relatively ox examine inal emplves » Probabilistic or Marko models de nt er ous Jl : II rates of moveme erns.” It is nor ement-patterns. storleal movrsmn of employee movemen, oa oe oi then adjustments have t he case, ie over time. If this ts not t CER pape Sain based upo! farkov model data should be Eee ange dane busines operations However fenrnmental eonaltone Sane: at ¥ epee tes d, using the HR plam the information should be adjusted, Se ati caaia ee Bent wo i that Mato teehee dep OF ae ables, so dmamie and unstable environme 72 ane effective usage of Markov models.1? See HR Pla of a Markov model, : unsiei cl There are three main steps to using a Markov model ier nel 8 Ps ! poses First, we collect historical data on mobility rates : inthe organization, Second, based on this data we develop matrices to forecast future Personnel movement between jobs, Third, we use the forecasts of the mode] io analyze our HR policies and programs, and instigate the necessary adaptive measures,?! ‘movement between jobs 1s based on hi mally assumed, for calculation purpo’ By using employee movemen { data from the past five years or so, we are able to calculate transitional probabilities, or the likelihood that an individual in a Specific job will exhibit one of the five aforementioned movement behaviours, normally one year into the future. By multiplying the total number of employees 18 managers) by the associated probabilities ent scenarios, the HR planner derives numer- Caused by turnover, termination, Teferred to block: ‘ages or problems ®meteadily apparent when we use NetSeat gangs, ie ara diet oe see nan that excoece UP? ant shortage in Position: and for de seoded suppl that re the Evergreen and world, Second, becau the shipping industry «088 of the local economy ape: itime power as two local cerriers— ies in tho the 20 biggest shipping companies int oe used TaN a8 tHe ag ally and #1 sconciled demang ch 0 ‘ors would be ab od eae ti ing officers. Concunen, ra vyradluates (Om the mating 4 ireived milita1Y Service in the Tne n TANaD Pe ad cesta navy 28 offering the mr Pat they Would prafe jobs following oredr vessal. Policy recommen, Fo Ot arr tho study included (1) having ctor tht dere i ahs to sone eae rns Coy ak uecina aaa din nereased number of ships jo was of The forecasting (asi veal ross: Ft, Tainan aly ee Ming shipping companios— time nation, i Talon, is a mi [sa key contributor to the sue: * kev meal was ceived fom histor ace ntwnaton sos caret runaas oa a spear for maritime co! officers n the four biararchical levels (masters, chiel port fc lieges and universities to expang officers, ship officers, a time at each level, and the s officers who have ‘obta ficiency, Demand information was obtoin five-year plot of the gran Source: Adyoted liom Un C, Maatine Poley& Management, Vl Linear programming A complex mathematical procedure commonly Used for project analysis 1 engineering and busi. ‘ess applications it can determine an optimum or best supply mix solution {0 minimize costs or ot Constraints ing programs for their ships’ eee {9) agores. Ind deck officers, the seniority training pro arambets (seal Sate ‘ge sips sy enna rane rn upply of new shipping tiesto train for their officer certificates, and! (4) helping ned their aioe rae supply shortages by conducting overseas i recruiting. nd total of ships that operated Deck Officers in Taiwan,” Is, Ltd, htte//waw:tend.cowue 5: Yang ad Cr, 20, "Manpower Sippy and Dan and ol Oran | 28, No.7, pp. 93-102 Reprinted wth permission of Taylor and Franc Linear Programming Linear ‘brogrammin, ed groups with disabilitiesjot enereiied sty Uae i HOH, HB He sie ot V0 ai ining WHleltly defined con filate "what i i oF te determine ' i ‘itn ; M i venta for supp, "iy wa sat sth HHT ne ty ga ms hv } i i HH VA HSE 6), namely ny hoy HHIMEAE HE Hummes Li anu eee et relation . ; ied Ws Hragennn MIL cows nat hold ne a ' iy ear br NINH wehiniquies to dete ; VN ASP iM ut #4 relatively ear * ili be WV thie Ht Comite H We Hie seoHe UF this bout net # Metalted presentation on Moverent Analysis ryote BVAES 18 CCT H Agua jini OF HD MOL thE HOMatIOHe ony whi alyne jmraniniel HH OtRANLANLION.!? Sieciny b ton al Aiiaher of VAlATE OF OOH HURILIONS IN te ee hy (il HUINDEE OF personne | Movements Ai 00 MEA HOHICION. Th ta jeter tha oF eG] (HE nitMber UF vac Ji aelerial NONE, THe HUMBER Of vaca qiy inner of new hives obtalied by the nations 0 personnel supply, ) specifically fie8 have on the movements of tattzation or department, as well that are caused by replacing and Hibep of personnel movements is always ‘ait positions to be filled. we rely solely zi positon to be filled is exactly equal to i agers pu a iw cwont employers (Li, internal uyply) to All position openings, the total humibor of personnel Movernents Will be greatly in excess of the number of open juntos, because AY Uhe Epening (2, due toa promotion or termination) will jmull 1 whole chain OF subordinates sequentially moving up one authority level jw (ill (he yaya" Movement analysis enables the Hl planner to select the desired ji ob percentage OF internal and external supply for those positions requiring joplcwinents, Paging from & promote-from-within policy to the other extreme of joplaciny loses entirely Uhvough biting personnel from outside the organization. Movement analysis can be performed for the organization as a whole, aliiough analysts normally find it more useful to conduct separate analyses for eacidepartinent, division, of functional area,*The normal planning time horizon jy one vean and We start by Identifying the humber of personnel in each authority ») conpensation-band level at the start of the forecasting period, Next, we con- silo changes in the level of staffing for the department—that is, whether we are joing Lo increase the number of jobs in some or all authority levels or downsize (u jeduce the total number of employees in the department. Having increased or locroned the personnel requirement from that which was forecast at the start of thw poriod, we now turn to calculating the losses requiring replacement freRch authority level of the department ‘We are interested only In losses ees i pvonotions, transfers out ofthe department voluntary Ea eet tht nee to be replaced) therefore, itis Important that ant artiAnat Scent ponltione that have already been incorporated into the staffing chang \t to We wild Chango in ataffing level to personnel losses requiring replacement Movemerit analysis ‘A technique used to lly, We ate able to identify the total analyze personnel supply, specifically the chain or Fipple effect that promotions or job lo: have on the movements of other personnal in an ‘ganizationFIELD | 1p an appreciation for . ONS ERO! n HA Planting Ni oh MANAGING ola with | te aigational contexts situa ral an the tempo are made Mettig decnane ema don 2 fe ona ee 1n models (a classic nrhag' ich multiple aon manna) im whieh mule sal of lacie Te ically at we ate a hl ae oper ayn and util arti te uae thie stating task Fo resource Hows La eee, ent. At this stage, having sins requiring replacement At nee ive us the total number of po: Cie sa eas umber determined the total number of po: ee Saran enn sonnel movernents, as briefly feet pall oeceing sega 11 our organization or department fe, we now turn to a practi aiid external replacements, To demonstrate, tun ical ‘internal aiid external replacem example of a movement analysis. Movement Analysis Exercise As Il forecasting manager of Keele Kontainers L organization's finance departmer of positions requiring rey Important, (2) the Ltd, your focus of inte nly You wish to determine ( ‘placements over the impact these ope: rest is the 1) the total number next one-year period, and equally ‘ings will have on the current employeey mote rom sghroughout the department, Keele Kontalners has weigg 0m within” for all authority levels which obvious a policy of “pro. ment entry level (level 9), new recruits. The finance depart, |'in authority levels 1 to 3 inclusive (i.e, ce-president); the senior appointment is a the basis of historical trends and informa. ‘anning cell, you know the following: Position) increase for each of authority leve) required to meet additi onal financial processing one additional Senior mana, nF wants ne senior ma One senior mana operations), the financial above) ly must be fille does not have President, senior yic level above the basi ed externally with any personne! President, vi ') position. o} ategic pl 1-A5 percent statting Inclusive will be Uw 14 (senior manager Hon provided by the str: {epartment; Is 6 to9 48 Managem,ual loss rates Include th tan lude the follows ing: co he ents eoaulring replacements: PF pit cant of current Positions for loveleg eosttions for level 5 ‘ eet eaignations (voluntary) | tang mete ermin or and 6 = 10% of positions at y Hons (dnvotuntar evel 5 "i596 of positions at start of pence Perio ae = 20% of positions at start of veries 3596 of positions at start or period ja components (#4. terminations, retin umn or broken into jpowidl “1 A tirements) sper of personnel/Positions a te the start of the year are as olen genior manager) = 1 ves (manager) = 6 wg (senior analyst) = 20 es 7 (analyst) = 32 rye (clerk) = 40 wig (clerical assistant) = 50 fe aleulating: our movement analysis, we ill the open. e of igentified. Whe! i ons ntifie’ n conducting a movement analysis, there are two rules plow com the top down. Start atthe highest authority or hierarchy level in We ganization, because normal personel movement in organizations is svar as people are promoted to replace higher-level losses, p.calate the movement figures for one authority or compensation level at atime. uct a movement analysis table, shown in Table 7.3, and use his~ let's constr ‘on to calculate position replacement requirements or positions | informati belied. jy using historical information, we are able t0 determine that the finance department, with 149 positions at the start of the year, requires 68 positions tobe filled over the year. These positions are needed because of a planned salfing increase of 15 positions and because 53 individuals are required to replace personnel losses (ie., losses due to retirements, resignations, and ter- ninations), The calculations to arrive at these numbers are straightforward. For ample, the increased staffing requirement for level 7 is determined by multi- plying the original number of positions at that level by the percentage increase (le, 32 x 0,05 = 1.6 positions), and because We don’t normally hire fractions : people, the requirement is for two new positions! Similarly, total personiiel lsses for level 8 consist of 14 positions, which is the sum of six retirements = (e, 40 starting positions x 15%) plus eight turnover losses (ie, 40 starting — Positions x 20%),$= a = S ° [Ramber of Positions to Be Fuses Losses to Re al [ Number of = es inl fe Num ° Authority restart of Period ut = 5 H [tever 3+ si jee 1 ee ae ia 6 1 Ae [3 a 2 14 é 3 2 me a A | 40 3 ae | f 53 8 50 ae aes 149 4 Praga hop sno, Bartholo, " an Fesouce omnis rs Burack and NJ Mathys Human Res Brace Pak, 129 oie mire 3 eer Rew York Wily, 19 Md larshall, Manpoy E¥etpane ae and Devtsoman ed tren Bee sa = fama and Boag oxo A 8 Bacon, rae Nea he one 3 ede Rieu You Ehever NorhHoland. 17 bs oer Paes ee ed erat Fin Olgoncaton eambridge, Ma Haar Uni yn Organisations (Cam 3, we con: re from Table 7.3, illed” column all levels of “Positions to Be Fil ement at the Bets Atl eee reveals the employee Saomeine aac See ate eee by promotions to al ee anit nnersaies replace finance departmen I, to fill the 68 po: in the fina is all mean? Overall, ill occur in nee What does oes ear, a total of 167 movements eee Table 73, nos a ge cae Bene e Siete pon mone! department due q Personnel Movement | | Positions Total Ripple or | (0 Be Filled Chain Movement sas Sources: Adapted from re Burak and NJ. Mathys, Human Resource Planning: A ie Manpower Stating aid Develooment, 3¢d ed "Northbrook, Br Stochastic Madels for the Social S 5 Planning a Aes NEW York: Wiley, 1989) "gramming (Bost Planning Models New ior Allyn & Bacon, 1972), eCisions," His, /E. Burack and J. Walker, Manpower Grinold and K Marshall, Manpower ; "Models for Human Resource (1988): S107: 5: Walker, Human Resources § Chains of Opportuni stem Models of Versity Press, 1970), York: E's Mobilty in Orgenizatic ((a si AFL At AA Nyy Awe MHD HAVE WY preweyany atin aca Har Niwitavie at tous Naty Whe nen jn ak VEL Saint Vastly ah WANN A eATRTAL WONG Wan beh Wwtivintinal Mast he granite : NE INARI RAE eee OF ATH ofTeL of wen vena Mavoment " B WANS VihO! HY ATL Lhe WemaNiraitanal jak ANSIHNHION TAL WE Promote Ni thea Na NLA vance N thre ware Sagneees CRE BREET AUP] 8 FS Het ree Rae eto {nthe ripple ov chain effect nately So i vain effect mate oS gy as AOWHA AU L FOMEEEY. hat foe this year’s 24-4 16), In other works, mover eeSSees UAL OF LOT Mndividnal moves will be te 41 40 1H 8 losion Sanne MOM WITHIN, HE we were t ee eal ancl a ce to balanee external and (internal supply, > oat Neasenrent Woulel be Chat fewer individuals would be promoted {rom son abe CRANMRRVION, THis would lead to a decrease tn the Individual moves to sser & the Rumer of open positions to be filled came movemencanalysls, Not only can an organization estimate the number jqoopal promotions aud external hires, DUE IC ean also use the Mformation 2 apnoing parboses and ensure it is able to devote enough resources tn the evelopment of its current emplayees (ie, the 99 employees who save taken up positions at higher levels) and in the recruitinent of the ul sew RITES, vacancy Model rhe vacanc) a ney, renewal, model, sometimes referred to asa renewal or sequencing model, Vacancy, renenny 7 araizes Hows of personnel t Jequencing model hroughout the organization by examining inputs = quencing mo ‘ueputs at each hierarchical or compensa i sha lyzes flows of tion level.5 Vacancy model : De al ae seep ro have more predictive capacity than Markov models aver short: aN the organization by Sand a (of three, five, and ten years)?® although the common te eamining input snd oy : / is one year into the future. It is important that we always outputs at each hierarchical toes es at Ne irements one level ata time ina"top-down" or Compensation level ~siculate our personnel supply require : Bane aie at the highest relevant authority level, becaus® the ene ; arc of personnel movement in an organization is from the Leet bee ‘The rationale behind the vacancy model is simple: the supply ne Cra a — of pel a jevel are determined by staffing changes—the a na 5 saan ed away From Che'Tevel andl any peractiel esac cy departures, terminations). Se n ill i eto which these openings WU izati olicy will determine the exten! vr be cease eel supply. Personnel losses are arm ae Bek hanced Core with respect to the percentage of ae i ee oe normally exit from that level annually, while growth estiin r a A Opes ses in the organization lea i Overall, vacancies in normal business forecasting process: EL ———sons trom lower pro nel. | oo eee al leit HINES the soe evel ana font voce! ides nas a whole organization ¥y model. lilustrative example of the vacane We now present an Meson = el Bats offers ppc Aeon anon piece on foosehead Universit 4 Tippee deer cour students Moorhead Une marino Sion, calculate the company’s va e, stable size 1. Staffing changes: None (ie, ) 2. Personnel losses during the year: ‘etirement) Level 1 (president) 100% (compulsory ret Level 2 (vice-presidents) = 159% Level 3 (managers) 17% Level 4 (team leaders) 20% Level 6 (trainees) = 50 4 5 3. Personnel replacement policy (% external supply :% internal supply) i % External Hiring % Internal Promotion 0 Level 1 0 a Level 2 10 sa Level 3 20 Level 4 30 70 Level § 55 AR Level 6 100 fi Remember that the key to successful completion Ofthe model is to start your calculations at the top of the o, T epaation and work down one level at atime. g Jet's start. Our analysis at level 1, the Position of the President; No. of Personne} ni Annual Promotions Level, External Me level at start of ven: Losses ta Level Outflows — Hiring # 1 1 1 1 1 0 ab| The President of Hamish’s will be retiring this Year, so there wil} bean annual 2 less of one Person. The company's Personnel repiacement Policy states that for iy fhe Presidents job (eye) 1, all (100 percent off loss replacements will come fof som Internal promotions 2 “his case, from level 2 be Cw. Therefore, there jg |) ca © 8€ Promotion to level 4 (from level 2) with no éxternal hires, and annual losses a are €>. ctly equal ty Cuttlow at that level consi twat j e nsider the situationfor level 2: ; OF Perso , lever 1 mene aol Tomotions Level External ; : evel tows Hiring by 2 6 1 : 5 : s 2 2 0 qgoaual Ie year muleiplied by tl Ree rors oslo ythehinoran of peacnel a shat evel oon Pieses, because we alto note thatthe cutowsfomfevel 2a in em wae eanrethat the outflows from ae a Sas Satin tacoieaien, eee aia 2 pa plan peomets om any organizational ie al gw ove refer to the comPANY’'s De coetonigerien ean ania ents are promoted from level 3, eae ee Br ee ea at we 2 replace paernally fOr the level 2 losses. The anal; al organizational levels Pave ces Sena continues in like manner until allows ompleted. The finished vacancy model is No.of Personnel Anni evel atStartof Year See Eee External : ; : evel Outflows Hiring 2 iG A 3 1 0 3 18 3 2 2 0 45 4 5 1 4 a eZ 9 B 4 5 ea gz 14 31 aj 6 1 78 0 9 314 114 a 30 144 Ait p inthis instance, our vacancy model meets the specified requirement of _ astable workforce size (ie. nO growth) as annual personnel losses of 114 are eracty replaced by 114 new hhires from outside the organization. Furthermore, We tow that in addition to the 114 annual losses (from @ stable organizational workforce of 314), there ar® “{44 total personnel movements consistingof114new from external supply sources and 30 internal promotions ‘across all levels. age or decrease, the predict a staffing incre (eg, 5 percentat Jevel personnel in each ecreased) number the base point for toeach authority Jevel in. hires ifinstead of a no-growth scenario We above table is merely revised with the growth pe 4,8 percent at level 5) multiplied by the original level to arrive ata. column containing’ the revised (inc of personnel. ‘This adjusted m i calculating losses, promotions, the organization. Given the vaca cy creased or di level in the organization. which is obtained by dividing by 45 (the total number of personnel ful tool fo! “model is a very use! ments for i ‘ions f current employees 4 7 nts for internal promot # each level of the organization. exact number of external new hires require ane) who are inleve