Inventory Simulation
Inventory Simulation
Inventory Simulation
xls Page 1 of 60
Simulating Inventory Control with Orders that Cross during Lead Time
sS.xls Version 1.4 03/22/02
John.O.McClain@cornell.edu
Johnson Graduate School of Management
Cornell University
Ithaca NY 14853
This workbook is intended for teaching or research. You are welcome to use it in any manner,
and change it as you see fit. It comes without any guarantee whatsoever, and is distributed
free of charge. Changes are frequent, so check back frequently for a new version.
Most inventory control systems use a formula for lead-time demand to set safety stock levels.
Research has uncovered situations where that method leads to large and expensive errors.*
In particular, if replenishment orders might not arrive in the same order in which they are placed, then
the above method will leave you with too much inventory if your objective is a high level of protection,
and too little inventory if you are aiming to run out of stock frequently. That is, the variance of the
inventory level is smaller than the variance of lead-time demand.
*See Robinson, L.R, J.R. Bradley and L.J. Thomas, "Consequences of Order Crossover under
Order-up-to Inventory Policies." M&SOM Manufacturing and Service Operations Management,
Volume 3, No. 3 (2001), pp.175-188.
This workbook contains a macro, written in Visual Basic, that allows you to simulate the inventory control
system known variously as the Min-Max system, the (s,S) system, or the reorder-level, order-up-to system.
Two versions are available in the simulation:
> Periodic review: orders may be placed only at specific points of time, such as daily or weekly.
> Continuous review: orders are placed instantly, as soon as inventory reaches the reorder level.
In both cases, the state of the system is tracked at all times, so that accurate costs may be calculated.
The word "order" refers to an action taken to replenish the supply of an item that is stocked in inventory
and sold to customers. The word "demand" refers to a customer wanting to buy one unit of the item.
A "backorder" is an unsatisfied demand for which the customer will take delivery at a later time.
The simulation assumes that all customers are willing to wait if their demand is backordered.
The simulation allows orders to cross. It assumes that the lead time of one order is independent of
that for any other order, and therefore crossing occurs whenever the lead time for an order is longer
than the interval between orders plus the lead time for the next order.
Please note that the independence assumption is not true in some real circumstances. For example,
if both orders are shipped by rail, and if one freight car cannot pass another, the orders cannot cross.
However, in that case lead times are also not independent, but rather are positively correlated, so
models that assume independence (i.e. most inventory models) are also incorrect.
Sheet: Introduction File: 55872829.xls Page 2 of 60
The arguments leading to equation 15 also yield a lower limit for the variance:
19) Var[Shortfall@Deliv] ≤ µL VarD + µD VarL
2
The upper limit in equation 15 also yields a variance estimate, but it is not necessarily an upper limit:
20) Var[Shortfall@Deliv] ≈ (1 + µL) VarD + µD VarL
2
4. Optimization
The value of Q (the gap between s and S) is held constant during a simulation. (In fact, it operates as
if the order-up-to level were S=0 with reorder level s = -Q.) However, the output may be used
to represent any (s,S) system that has S-s=Q. You can find the optimal value of s among all
systems that have the same Q as the one in your simulation, and then set S=s+Q.
On the Graphs sheet, an Excel Table calculates costs for a range of values of s. A graph shows the
results. You may input the first value of s and the interval between points. To home in on the
optimum, adjust the first value until the graph is U-shaped, and then lower the interval to 1.
However, the result is only optimal for the value of Q that you simulated. To find an overall
optimum, you must repeat the simulation for a series of values of Q, and use the table to find the
best reorder level for each Q. Record those values and select the one with lowest cost.
Sheet: Simulate File 55872829.xls Page 6 of 60
Simulation of a Min-Max (s,S) Inventory System in Continuous Time: Discrete or Continuous Review
Type of Review Inter-demand time (IDT) Lead Time (LT) Theoretical Values Mean Var StDev
LTD 30.00 230.00 15.166
Periodic Review? ✘ TRUE Gamma IDT? ✘ TRUE Gamma LT? FALSE
LT+1 Dem 40.00 240.00 15.492
Periodic Review Gamma IDT Gamma LT (not in use) LT 3.00 2.00 1.414
mean 0.1 mean 3 Inter-Demand Time 0.1 0.01 0.100
StDev 0.1 StDev 1.41 Demand/period 10.00 10.00 3.162
Minimum Order Quantity Discrete IDT (not in use) Discrete LT
Minimum Q = S-s 30 IDT f(IDT) LT f(LT) Conversion Formulas:
0 0.5 0 Mean Var StDev
0.03 1 0.2 Demand per Period: 10 10 3.162
0.07 2 0.2 Inter-demand Time: 0.1 0.01 0.100
Run Controls 0.1 3 0.2
Runin Periods 5,000 0.13 4 0.2 Inter-Demand Time 0.1 0.01 0.100
Run Periods 50,000 0.17 5 0.2 Demand/period 10 10 3.162
RNSeed 5235 0.2 0.5 6 0
mean 0.1 mean 3
StDev 0.1 StDev 1.41
Analysis of Service Level Accuracy. Target Probability of No Backorders: 0.95 ←This target's meaning:
Shortfall For "Shortfall",
Using simulated distribution of: LTDem LT+1 Dem Shortfall
@Deliv. it means "% of time during which
To achieve target probability, s= 55 61 66 44 there are some backorders."
S=s+Q: 105 111 116 94 For "Shorfall@Delivery",
Actual P(no BO@Deliv): 0.895 0.956 0.984 0.696 it means "% of orders for
Actual P(no BO, time av.): 0.989 0.997 0.999 0.952 which some backorders exist
Predicted by LTD 0.956 0.988 0.996 0.792 when the order arrives."
Predicted by LT+1 Dem 0.795 0.895 0.949 0.580
Search for Minimum Cost Reorder Level (s) holding constant S-s=50
60 Make sure "Calculation" is set to "Automatic". If it is
not, then press F9 to recalculate the cost curve
40 whenever you change anything.
Graph of Cost vs s, starting at
Cost
0.01
0.01
0
4 12 20 28 36 44 52 60 68 76 84 92 100 108 116 124 132 140 148 156 164
0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 104 112 120 128 136 144 152 160 168
0.03
LTDem
0.03
LT+1 Dem
0.02
Shortfall Page Down for
0.02
cumulative
0.01 distributions
0.01 ↓
0
4 12 20 28 36 44 52 60 68 76 84 92 100 108 116 124 132 140 148 156 164
0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 104 112 120 128 136 144 152 160 168
LT: Mean IDT:
= 3, CV = Mean =
0.471, 0.1, CV =
Discrete 1,
Gamma
0.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 0.010 0.055 0.100 0.145 0.190 0.235 0.280
Cumulative Distributions LTDem
1.00 Shortfall @Deliv.
LT+1 Dem
0.80 Shortfall
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
4 12 20 28 36 44 52 60 68 76 84 92 100 108 116 124 132 140 148 156 164
0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 104 112 120 128 136 144 152 160 168
Sheet: Graphs File: 55872829.xls Page 9 of 60
Periodic Review, Q=50. D=10 (Var=10). Discrete LT: Mu= 3, Std=1.41 View Performance Summary
Gamma InterDemandTime: Mu= 0.1, Std=0.1 Crossings/Delivery=0 View Graphs of Distributions
Links → View Simulation Data
Description of Simulation Data being Viewed:
Inputs: Outputs:
Runin Periods 5,000 SimTime 50,000
Run Periods 50,000 Demands 500,784
Q = S-s 50 Orders 9,100
Exp. Demand 10 Deliveries 9,100
Var. Dmd (approx) 10 Crossings 0
RNSeed 5235 Cross/Deliv 0
Periodic Review? TRUE
Gamma LT? FALSE
Gamma IDT? TRUE
Exp. Inter-Demand Time 0.1 Shortfall, Avg. 57.05
StDev Inter-Demand Time 0.1 Shortfall, var. 489.28
Exp. LT 3 Shortfall@Deliv. Avg. 35.01
StDev LT 1.41 Shortfall@Deliv. var. 242.52
Exp LTD 30 LTD Avg. 29.98
Var LTD 230 LTD var. 230.03
Exp D(LT+1) 40 LT+1 Dem Avg 41.02
Var D(LT+1) 240 LT+1 Dem Var 239.77
Input Distributions: Below Output Distributions: Farther Below
Inter-Demand Time Distribution: Ignore Discrete. Gamma used. Distribution Actually Used:
Gamma Parameters: 1.000 0.100 IDT: Mean = 0.1, CV = 1, Gamma
Discrete IDT F(IDT) f(IDT) Gamma IDT f(IDT) Gamma IDT f(IDT)
0.000 0.500 0.500 0.010 9.048 0.010 9.048
0.033 0.500 0.000 0.055 5.769 0.055 5.769
0.067 0.500 0.000 0.100 3.679 0.100 3.679
0.100 0.500 0.000 0.145 2.346 0.145 2.346
0.133 0.500 0.000 0.190 1.496 0.190 1.496
0.167 0.500 0.000 0.235 0.954 0.235 0.954
0.200 1.000 0.500 0.280 0.608 0.280 0.608
Will Gamma overflow? FALSE
Lead Time Distribution: Ignore Gamma. Discrete used. Distribution Actually Used:
Gamma Parameters: 4.500 0.667 LT: Mean = 3, CV = 0.471, Discrete
Discrete LTDiscrete F(LT)Discrete f(LT) Gamma LTGamma f(LT) Discrete LT f(IDT)
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.300 0.005 0.000 0.000
1.000 0.200 0.200 1.650 0.259 1.000 0.200
2.000 0.400 0.200 3.000 0.277 2.000 0.200
3.000 0.600 0.200 4.350 0.134 3.000 0.200
4.000 0.800 0.200 5.700 0.046 4.000 0.200
5.000 1.000 0.200 7.050 0.013 5.000 0.200
6.000 1.000 0.000 8.400 0.003 6.000 0.000
Will Gamma overflow? FALSE
Sheet: Trace File: 55872829.xls Page 10 of 60
Order Crossing Simulation Partial Simulation Results Theory
(s, S) with S=0 demands 452 Shortfall Leadtime Leadtime
Continuous time! orders placed 14 Shortfall @ Delivery Demand Demand
Q = S-s 30 deliveries 13 Mean 43.35 60.62 26.69 30.00
Exp. Demand 10 Number of Crossings 1 Variance 248.71 153.59 226.90 230.00
Var. Dmd (approx) 10
RNSeed 5235 0
Periodic Review? TRUE Periodic
-10 Review. Q=30: D=10, var=10: L= 3, Std=1.41
Gamma LT? FALSE
-20
Gamma IDT? TRUE
Exp. IDT 0.1 -30
StDev IDT 0.1 -40
Exp. LT 3
-50
StDev LT 1.41
-60
-70
-80
Current Time 55.556
5010
4995
5000
5005
5015
5020
5025
5030
5035
Arriving Inventory Order Lead Delivery - Leadtime Inv. before orders Order Pipeline, Arrival Times
Period Dmd Orders On-Hand On-Order Position Quantity Time Period Demand Delivery crossed 1 2 3 4 5
5000 -27 0 -27
5000.05 1 -28 0 -28
5000.12 1 -29 0 -29
5000.12 1 -30 0 -30
5000.45 1 -31 0 -31
5000.51 1 -32 0 -32
5000.76 1 -33 0 -33
5001 -33 33 0 33 4 5005 0 5005
5001.15 1 -34 33 -1
5001.26 1 -35 33 -2
5001.32 1 -36 33 -3
5001.33 1 -37 33 -4
5001.43 1 -38 33 -5
5001.71 1 -39 33 -6
5001.75 1 -40 33 -7
5001.82 1 -41 33 -8
5001.85 1 -42 33 -9
5001.94 1 -43 33 -10
5002.24 1 -44 33 -11
5002.28 1 -45 33 -12
5002.3 1 -46 33 -13
5002.34 1 -47 33 -14
5002.38 1 -48 33 -15
5002.45 1 -49 33 -16
5002.75 1 -50 33 -17
5002.77 1 -51 33 -18
5003.03 1 -52 33 -19
5003.13 1 -53 33 -20
5003.13 1 -54 33 -21
5003.14 1 -55 33 -22
5003.14 1 -56 33 -23
5003.45 1 -57 33 -24
5003.46 1 -58 33 -25
5003.52 1 -59 33 -26
5003.96 1 -60 33 -27
5004.06 1 -61 33 -28
5004.28 1 -62 33 -29
5004.31 1 -63 33 -30
5004.46 1 -64 33 -31
5004.55 1 -65 33 -32
5004.57 1 -66 33 -33
5004.59 1 -67 33 -34
5004.6 1 -68 33 -35
5004.85 1 -69 33 -36
5004.94 1 -70 33 -37
5004.94 1 -71 33 -38
5004.98 1 -72 33 -39
5005 -72 72 0 39 2 5007 0 5005 5007
5005 33 -39 39 0 -39 -72 5005
5005.04 1 -40 39 -1
5005.13 1 -41 39 -2
5005.13 1 -42 39 -3
5005.22 1 -43 39 -4
5005.25 1 -44 39 -5
5005.3 1 -45 39 -6
5005.4 1 -46 39 -7
5005.44 1 -47 39 -8
5005.71 1 -48 39 -9
Sheet: Trace File: 55872829.xls Page 11 of 60
Arriving Inventory Order Lead Delivery - Leadtime Inv. before orders Order Pipeline, Arrival Times
Period Dmd Orders On-Hand On-Order Position Quantity Time Period Demand Delivery crossed 1 2 3 4 5
5005.89 1 -49 39 -10
5005.9 1 -50 39 -11
5006.03 1 -51 39 -12
5006.05 1 -52 39 -13
5006.07 1 -53 39 -14
5006.08 1 -54 39 -15
5006.12 1 -55 39 -16
5006.13 1 -56 39 -17
5006.2 1 -57 39 -18
5006.55 1 -58 39 -19
5007 39 -19 0 -19 -19 -58
5007.13 1 -20 0 -20
5007.32 1 -21 0 -21
5007.34 1 -22 0 -22
5007.39 1 -23 0 -23
5007.41 1 -24 0 -24
5007.41 1 -25 0 -25
5007.62 1 -26 0 -26
5007.64 1 -27 0 -27
5007.64 1 -28 0 -28
5007.88 1 -29 0 -29
5007.9 1 -30 0 -30
5007.99 1 -31 0 -31
5007.99 1 -32 0 -32
5008 -32 32 0 32 5 5013 0 5013
5008.16 1 -33 32 -1
5008.25 1 -34 32 -2
5008.54 1 -35 32 -3
5008.59 1 -36 32 -4
5008.66 1 -37 32 -5
5008.87 1 -38 32 -6
5009 1 -39 32 -7
5009.07 1 -40 32 -8
5009.07 1 -41 32 -9
5009.3 1 -42 32 -10
5009.63 1 -43 32 -11
5009.65 1 -44 32 -12
5009.8 1 -45 32 -13
5009.81 1 -46 32 -14
5009.86 1 -47 32 -15
5009.88 1 -48 32 -16
5009.96 1 -49 32 -17
5009.98 1 -50 32 -18
5010.13 1 -51 32 -19
5010.33 1 -52 32 -20
5010.35 1 -53 32 -21
5010.36 1 -54 32 -22
5010.59 1 -55 32 -23
5010.7 1 -56 32 -24
5010.75 1 -57 32 -25
5010.77 1 -58 32 -26
5010.78 1 -59 32 -27
5010.9 1 -60 32 -28
5010.92 1 -61 32 -29
5010.96 1 -62 32 -30
5011 -62 62 0 30 1 5012 1 5012 5013
5011.01 1 -63 62 -1
5011.17 1 -64 62 -2
5011.21 1 -65 62 -3
5011.21 1 -66 62 -4
5011.29 1 -67 62 -5
5011.39 1 -68 62 -6
5011.43 1 -69 62 -7
5011.61 1 -70 62 -8
5011.62 1 -71 62 -9
5011.64 1 -72 62 -10
5011.66 1 -73 62 -11
5011.97 1 -74 62 -12
5012 30 -44 32 -12 -12 -74 5012
5012 1 -45 32 -13
5012.13 1 -46 32 -14
5012.15 1 -47 32 -15
5012.19 1 -48 32 -16
5012.36 1 -49 32 -17
5012.36 1 -50 32 -18
5012.44 1 -51 32 -19
5012.53 1 -52 32 -20
5012.89 1 -53 32 -21
Sheet: Trace File: 55872829.xls Page 12 of 60
Arriving Inventory Order Lead Delivery - Leadtime Inv. before orders Order Pipeline, Arrival Times
Period Dmd Orders On-Hand On-Order Position Quantity Time Period Demand Delivery crossed 1 2 3 4 5
5012.92 1 -54 32 -22
5012.92 1 -55 32 -23
5013 32 -23 0 -23 -53 -55
5013.17 1 -24 0 -24
5013.3 1 -25 0 -25
5013.59 1 -26 0 -26
5013.62 1 -27 0 -27
5013.73 1 -28 0 -28
5014.05 1 -29 0 -29
5014.06 1 -30 0 -30
5014.22 1 -31 0 -31
5014.35 1 -32 0 -32
5014.49 1 -33 0 -33
5014.69 1 -34 0 -34
5015 -34 34 0 34 3 5018 0 5018
5015.06 1 -35 34 -1
5015.25 1 -36 34 -2
5015.38 1 -37 34 -3
5015.39 1 -38 34 -4
5015.55 1 -39 34 -5
5015.62 1 -40 34 -6
5015.7 1 -41 34 -7
5015.89 1 -42 34 -8
5015.93 1 -43 34 -9
5015.96 1 -44 34 -10
5016.33 1 -45 34 -11
5016.42 1 -46 34 -12
5016.47 1 -47 34 -13
5016.56 1 -48 34 -14
5016.59 1 -49 34 -15
5016.73 1 -50 34 -16
5016.74 1 -51 34 -17
5016.77 1 -52 34 -18
5016.78 1 -53 34 -19
5016.89 1 -54 34 -20
5016.93 1 -55 34 -21
5017.05 1 -56 34 -22
5017.05 1 -57 34 -23
5017.29 1 -58 34 -24
5017.37 1 -59 34 -25
5017.5 1 -60 34 -26
5017.6 1 -61 34 -27
5017.64 1 -62 34 -28
5017.66 1 -63 34 -29
5017.7 1 -64 34 -30
5017.75 1 -65 34 -31
5017.8 1 -66 34 -32
5018 -66 66 0 32 2 5020 0 5018 5020
5018 34 -32 32 0 -32 -66 5018
5018.29 1 -33 32 -1
5018.39 1 -34 32 -2
5018.55 1 -35 32 -3
5018.71 1 -36 32 -4
5018.99 1 -37 32 -5
5019.13 1 -38 32 -6
5019.2 1 -39 32 -7
5019.39 1 -40 32 -8
5019.43 1 -41 32 -9
5019.48 1 -42 32 -10
5019.63 1 -43 32 -11
5019.71 1 -44 32 -12
5019.72 1 -45 32 -13
5019.86 1 -46 32 -14
5019.94 1 -47 32 -15
5020 32 -15 0 -15 -15 -47
5020.44 1 -16 0 -16
5020.53 1 -17 0 -17
5020.69 1 -18 0 -18
5020.71 1 -19 0 -19
5020.76 1 -20 0 -20
5020.77 1 -21 0 -21
5020.78 1 -22 0 -22
5020.79 1 -23 0 -23
5020.82 1 -24 0 -24
5020.83 1 -25 0 -25
5021.04 1 -26 0 -26
5021.06 1 -27 0 -27
5021.27 1 -28 0 -28
Sheet: Trace File: 55872829.xls Page 13 of 60
Arriving Inventory Order Lead Delivery - Leadtime Inv. before orders Order Pipeline, Arrival Times
Period Dmd Orders On-Hand On-Order Position Quantity Time Period Demand Delivery crossed 1 2 3 4 5
5021.32 1 -29 0 -29
5021.56 1 -30 0 -30
5021.6 1 -31 0 -31
5021.62 1 -32 0 -32
5021.83 1 -33 0 -33
5021.86 1 -34 0 -34
5021.92 1 -35 0 -35
5022 -35 35 0 35 1 5023 0 5023
5022.26 1 -36 35 -1
5022.26 1 -37 35 -2
5022.26 1 -38 35 -3
5022.27 1 -39 35 -4
5022.32 1 -40 35 -5
5022.58 1 -41 35 -6
5022.82 1 -42 35 -7
5022.83 1 -43 35 -8
5022.99 1 -44 35 -9
5023 35 -9 0 -9 -9 -44
5023.17 1 -10 0 -10
5023.32 1 -11 0 -11
5023.56 1 -12 0 -12
5023.57 1 -13 0 -13
5023.59 1 -14 0 -14
5023.73 1 -15 0 -15
5023.76 1 -16 0 -16
5023.82 1 -17 0 -17
5023.9 1 -18 0 -18
5023.94 1 -19 0 -19
5024.04 1 -20 0 -20
5024.27 1 -21 0 -21
5024.38 1 -22 0 -22
5024.48 1 -23 0 -23
5024.49 1 -24 0 -24
5024.53 1 -25 0 -25
5024.65 1 -26 0 -26
5024.72 1 -27 0 -27
5024.85 1 -28 0 -28
5024.97 1 -29 0 -29
5025.06 1 -30 0 -30
5025.11 1 -31 0 -31
5025.18 1 -32 0 -32
5025.26 1 -33 0 -33
5025.48 1 -34 0 -34
5025.49 1 -35 0 -35
5025.61 1 -36 0 -36
5025.68 1 -37 0 -37
5025.74 1 -38 0 -38
5025.78 1 -39 0 -39
5025.79 1 -40 0 -40
5025.81 1 -41 0 -41
5026 -41 41 0 41 1 5027 0 5027
5026.11 1 -42 41 -1
5026.18 1 -43 41 -2
5026.45 1 -44 41 -3
5026.47 1 -45 41 -4
5026.65 1 -46 41 -5
5026.65 1 -47 41 -6
5026.68 1 -48 41 -7
5026.8 1 -49 41 -8
5026.93 1 -50 41 -9
5026.95 1 -51 41 -10
5026.99 1 -52 41 -11
5027 41 -11 0 -11 -11 -52
5027.23 1 -12 0 -12
5027.23 1 -13 0 -13
5027.36 1 -14 0 -14
5027.56 1 -15 0 -15
5027.58 1 -16 0 -16
5027.74 1 -17 0 -17
5027.78 1 -18 0 -18
5027.9 1 -19 0 -19
5027.96 1 -20 0 -20
5028.2 1 -21 0 -21
5028.27 1 -22 0 -22
5028.4 1 -23 0 -23
5028.52 1 -24 0 -24
5028.63 1 -25 0 -25
5028.68 1 -26 0 -26
Sheet: Trace File: 55872829.xls Page 14 of 60
Arriving Inventory Order Lead Delivery - Leadtime Inv. before orders Order Pipeline, Arrival Times
Period Dmd Orders On-Hand On-Order Position Quantity Time Period Demand Delivery crossed 1 2 3 4 5
5028.84 1 -27 0 -27
5029.05 1 -28 0 -28
5029.07 1 -29 0 -29
5029.22 1 -30 0 -30
5029.5 1 -31 0 -31
5029.57 1 -32 0 -32
5029.65 1 -33 0 -33
5029.71 1 -34 0 -34
5030 -34 34 0 34 4 5034 0 5034
5030.05 1 -35 34 -1
5030.15 1 -36 34 -2
5030.33 1 -37 34 -3
5030.35 1 -38 34 -4
5030.69 1 -39 34 -5
5030.91 1 -40 34 -6
5031 1 -41 34 -7
5031.07 1 -42 34 -8
5031.13 1 -43 34 -9
5031.21 1 -44 34 -10
5031.23 1 -45 34 -11
5031.28 1 -46 34 -12
5031.49 1 -47 34 -13
5031.8 1 -48 34 -14
5031.87 1 -49 34 -15
5032.38 1 -50 34 -16
5032.55 1 -51 34 -17
5032.59 1 -52 34 -18
5032.6 1 -53 34 -19
5032.63 1 -54 34 -20
5032.81 1 -55 34 -21
5032.86 1 -56 34 -22
5032.98 1 -57 34 -23
5033.01 1 -58 34 -24
5033.02 1 -59 34 -25
5033.27 1 -60 34 -26
5033.3 1 -61 34 -27
5033.36 1 -62 34 -28
5033.55 1 -63 34 -29
5033.67 1 -64 34 -30
5033.71 1 -65 34 -31
5033.74 1 -66 34 -32
5033.82 1 -67 34 -33
5033.88 1 -68 34 -34
5034 -68 68 0 34 4 5038 0 5034 5038
5034 34 -34 34 0 -34 -68 5034
5034.08 1 -35 34 -1
5034.25 1 -36 34 -2
5034.34 1 -37 34 -3
5034.43 1 -38 34 -4
5034.45 1 -39 34 -5
5034.5 1 -40 34 -6
5034.57 1 -41 34 -7
5034.64 1 -42 34 -8
5034.72 1 -43 34 -9
5034.73 1 -44 34 -10
5034.87 1 -45 34 -11
5034.87 1 -46 34 -12
5034.96 1 -47 34 -13
5035.03 1 -48 34 -14
5035.22 1 -49 34 -15
5035.31 1 -50 34 -16
5035.39 1 -51 34 -17
5035.53 1 -52 34 -18
5035.54 1 -53 34 -19
5035.59 1 -54 34 -20
5035.77 1 -55 34 -21
5035.77 1 -56 34 -22
5035.91 1 -57 34 -23
5036.04 1 -58 34 -24
5036.08 1 -59 34 -25
5036.14 1 -60 34 -26
5036.18 1 -61 34 -27
5036.41 1 -62 34 -28
5036.64 1 -63 34 -29
5036.78 1 -64 34 -30
5036.86 1 -65 34 -31
5036.9 1 -66 34 -32
5036.92 1 -67 34 -33
Sheet: Trace File: 55872829.xls Page 15 of 60
Arriving Inventory Order Lead Delivery - Leadtime Inv. before orders Order Pipeline, Arrival Times
Period Dmd Orders On-Hand On-Order Position Quantity Time Period Demand Delivery crossed 1 2 3 4 5
5037 -67 67 0 33 4 5041 0 5038 5041
5037.02 1 -68 67 -1
5037.14 1 -69 67 -2
5037.26 1 -70 67 -3
5037.31 1 -71 67 -4
5037.33 1 -72 67 -5
5037.58 1 -73 67 -6
5037.73 1 -74 67 -7
5037.75 1 -75 67 -8
5038 34 -41 33 -8 -41 -75 5038
5038.17 1 -42 33 -9
5038.24 1 -43 33 -10
5038.31 1 -44 33 -11
5038.38 1 -45 33 -12
5038.55 1 -46 33 -13
5038.55 1 -47 33 -14
5038.58 1 -48 33 -15
5038.75 1 -49 33 -16
5038.82 1 -50 33 -17
5038.84 1 -51 33 -18
5038.94 1 -52 33 -19
5039.05 1 -53 33 -20
5039.3 1 -54 33 -21
5039.34 1 -55 33 -22
5039.35 1 -56 33 -23
5039.47 1 -57 33 -24
5039.51 1 -58 33 -25
5039.65 1 -59 33 -26
5039.85 1 -60 33 -27
5039.87 1 -61 33 -28
5039.9 1 -62 33 -29
5039.93 1 -63 33 -30
5039.98 1 -64 33 -31
5040 -64 64 0 31 5 5045 0 5041 5045
5040.16 1 -65 64 -1
5040.27 1 -66 64 -2
5040.46 1 -67 64 -3
5040.53 1 -68 64 -4
5040.85 1 -69 64 -5
5040.92 1 -70 64 -6
5041 33 -37 31 -6 -37 -70 5041
5041.02 1 -38 31 -7
5041.12 1 -39 31 -8
5041.18 1 -40 31 -9
5041.29 1 -41 31 -10
5041.43 1 -42 31 -11
5041.54 1 -43 31 -12
5041.61 1 -44 31 -13
5041.69 1 -45 31 -14
5041.85 1 -46 31 -15
5041.91 1 -47 31 -16
5041.98 1 -48 31 -17
5042.05 1 -49 31 -18
5042.17 1 -50 31 -19
5042.33 1 -51 31 -20
5042.47 1 -52 31 -21
5042.49 1 -53 31 -22
5042.51 1 -54 31 -23
5043.14 1 -55 31 -24
5043.2 1 -56 31 -25
5043.29 1 -57 31 -26
5043.31 1 -58 31 -27
5043.46 1 -59 31 -28
5043.59 1 -60 31 -29
5043.85 1 -61 31 -30
5043.98 1 -62 31 -31
5044 -62 62 0 31 1 5045 0 5045 5045
5044.15 1 -63 62 -1
5044.16 1 -64 62 -2
5044.32 1 -65 62 -3
5044.41 1 -66 62 -4
5044.81 1 -67 62 -5
5044.87 1 -68 62 -6
5044.98 1 -69 62 -7
5045 31 -38 31 -7 -38 -69 5045
5045 31 -7 0 -7 -7 -38
5045.19 1 -8 0 -8
5045.38 1 -9 0 -9
Sheet: Trace File: 55872829.xls Page 16 of 60
Arriving Inventory Order Lead Delivery - Leadtime Inv. before orders Order Pipeline, Arrival Times
Period Dmd Orders On-Hand On-Order Position Quantity Time Period Demand Delivery crossed 1 2 3 4 5
5045.39 1 -10 0 -10
5045.44 1 -11 0 -11
5045.65 1 -12 0 -12
5045.67 1 -13 0 -13
5045.73 1 -14 0 -14
5045.88 1 -15 0 -15
5045.89 1 -16 0 -16
5046.02 1 -17 0 -17
5046.05 1 -18 0 -18
5046.05 1 -19 0 -19
5046.09 1 -20 0 -20
5046.17 1 -21 0 -21
5046.25 1 -22 0 -22
5046.27 1 -23 0 -23
5046.41 1 -24 0 -24
5046.46 1 -25 0 -25
5046.46 1 -26 0 -26
5046.73 1 -27 0 -27
5046.78 1 -28 0 -28
5046.83 1 -29 0 -29
5046.89 1 -30 0 -30
5047 -30 30 0 30 5 5052 0 5052
5047.03 1 -31 30 -1
5047.23 1 -32 30 -2
5047.39 1 -33 30 -3
5047.46 1 -34 30 -4
5047.55 1 -35 30 -5
5047.64 1 -36 30 -6
5047.94 1 -37 30 -7
5047.98 1 -38 30 -8
5048.02 1 -39 30 -9
5048.02 1 -40 30 -10
Runin Periods 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Run Periods 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
Q = S-s 20 20 10 50
Exp. Demand 10 10 10 10
Var. Dmd (approx) 10 10 10 10
RNSeed 5235 5235 5235 5235
Periodic Review? FALSE TRUE TRUE TRUE
Gamma LT? FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Gamma IDT? TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
Exp. Inter-Demand Time 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
StDev Inter-Demand Time 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Exp. LT 3 3 3 3
StDev LT 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41
Exp LTD 30 30 30 30
Var LTD 230 230 230 230
Exp D(LT+1) 40 40 40 40
Var D(LT+1) 240 240 240 240
SimTime 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
Demands 501,009 500,940 501,008 500,784
Orders 25,050 20,110 34,155 9,100
Deliveries 25,050 20,112 34,154 9,100
Crossings 5,149 1,600 8,476 0
Cross/Deliv 0.21 0.08 0.25 0
LTD Avg. 30.05 30 29.98 29.98
LTD var. 229.06 230.84 231.79 230.03
"LT+1 Dem" or "LTD", Avg. 30.05 41.03 41.3 41.02
"LT+1 Dem" or "LTD", Var. 229.06 240.87 240.24 239.77
S-Inv. (Time Av) Avg. 39.53 42.22 37.4 57.05
S-Inv. (Time Av) var. 184.53 241.17 155.05 489.28
s-Inv @Deliv. Avg. 30.05 34.98 34.87 35.01
s-Inv @Deliv. var. 150.95 194.42 142.49 242.52
x x x x x
0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5
6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
9 9 9 9
10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12
13 13 13 13
14 14 14 14
15 15 15 15
16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17
18 18 18 18
19 19 19 19
20 20 20 20
21 21 21 21
22 22 22 22
23 23 23 23
24 24 24 24
25 25 25 25
26 26 26 26
27 27 27 27
28 28 28 28
29 29 29 29
30 30 30 30
31 31 31 31
32 32 32 32
33 33 33 33
34 34 34 34
35 35 35 35
36 36 36 36
37 37 37 37
38 38 38 38
39 39 39 39
40 40 40 40
41 41 41 41
42 42 42 42
43 43 43 43
44 44 44 44
45 45 45 45
46 46 46 46
47 47 47 47
48 48 48 48
49 49 49 49
50 50 50 50
51 51 51 51
52 52 52 52
53 53 53 53
54 54 54 54
55 55 55 55
56 56 56 56
57 57 57 57
58 58 58 58
59 59 59 59
60 60 60 60
61 61 61 61
62 62 62 62
63 63 63 63
64 64 64 64
65 65 65 65
66 66 66 66
67 67 67 67
68 68 68 68
69 69 69 69
70 70 70 70
71 71 71 71
72 72 72 72
73 73 73 73
74 74 74 74
75 75 75 75
76 76 76 76
77 77 77 77
78 78 78 78
79 79 79 79
80 80 80 80
81 81 81 81
82 82 82 82
83 83 83 83
84 84 84 84
85 85 85 85
86 86 86 86
87 87 87 87
88 88 88 88
89 89 89 89
90 90 90 90
91 91 91 91
92 92 92 92
93 93 93 93
94 94 94 94
95 95 95 95
96 96 96 96
97 97 97 97
98 98 98 98
99 99 99 99
100 100 100 100
101 101 101 101
102 102 102 102
103 103 103 103
104 104 104 104
105 105 105 105
106 106 106 106
107 107 107 107
108 108 108 108
109 109 109 109
110 110 110 110
111 111 111 111
112 112 112 112
113 113 113 113
114 114 114 114
115 115 115 115
116 116 116 116
117 117 117 117
118 118 118 118
119 119 119 119
120 120 120 120
121 121 121 121
122 122 122 122
123 123 123 123
124 124 124 124
125 125 125 125
126 126 126 126
127 127 127 127
128 128 128 128
129 129 129 129
130 130 130 130
131 131 131 131
132 132 132 132
133 133 133 133
134 134 134 134
135 135 135 135
136 136 136 136
137 137 137 137
138 138 138 138
139 139 139 139
140 140 140 140
141 141 141 141
142 142 142 142
143 143 143 143
144 144 144 144
145 145 145 145
146 146 146 146
147 147 147 147
148 148 148 148
149 149 149 149
150 150 150 150
151 151 151 151
152 152 152 152
153 153 153 153
154 154 154 154
155 155 155 155
156 156 156 156
157 157 157 157
158 158 158 158
159 159 159 159
160 160 160 160
161 161 161 161
162 162 162 162
163 163 163 163
164 164 164 164
165 165 165 165
166 166 166 166
167 167 167 167
168 168 168 168
169 169 169 169
170 170 170 170
-Inv -Inv -Inv -Inv -Inv
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0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
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0 0 0 0
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0.01 0.01 0.01 0
0.01 0.01 0.01 0
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0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
0.01 0.01 0 0.02
0.01 0.01 0 0.02
0.01 0.01 0 0.02
0.01 0.01 0 0.02
0 0.01 0 0.02
0 0.01 0 0.01
0 0.01 0 0.01
0 0.01 0 0.01
0 0.01 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
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0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
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0 0 0 0.01
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0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
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LTD LTD LTD LTD LTD
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
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0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
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0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
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0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
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0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
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0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
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0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
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s-Inv @Deliv.s-Inv @Deliv.s-Inv @Deliv.s-Inv @Deliv.s-Inv @Deliv.
0 0 0 0
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0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
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0.01 0 0 0.01
0.01 0.01 0 0.01
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0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02
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0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02
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0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
0.04 0.02 0.03 0.02
0.04 0.02 0.03 0.02
0.04 0.02 0.03 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
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LT+1 Dem LTDem LT+1 Dem LT+1 Dem LT+1 Dem
0 0 0 0
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0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0.01 0 0 0
0.01 0 0 0
0.02 0 0 0
0.02 0 0 0
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0.02 0 0 0
0.02 0.01 0 0.01
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0 0.01 0.02 0.02
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
Discrete IDT Discrete IDT Discrete IDT Discrete IDT Discrete IDT
0 0 0 0
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Discrete F(IDT)
Discrete F(IDT)
Discrete F(IDT)
Discrete F(IDT)
Discrete F(IDT)
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
1 1 1 1
Discrete LT Discrete LT Discrete LT Discrete LT Discrete LT
0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5
6 6 6 6
Discrete F(LT)
Discrete F(LT)
Discrete F(LT)
Discrete F(LT)
Discrete F(LT)
0 0 0 0
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
50 50 50 50
10 10 10 10
1.6 1.6 10 10
5235 5235 5235 5235
TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE
FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.04 0.04 0.1 0.1
3 3 3 3
1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41
30 30 30 30
204.8 204.8 230 230
40 40 40 40
206.4 206.4 240 240
50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
500,285 500,203 500,771 500,784
9,205 10,004 10,015 9,100
9,205 10,004 10,015 9,100
0 0 32 0
0 0 0 0
30.32 29.43 30.03 29.98
205.13 210.08 232.51 230.03
40.57 29.43 30.03 41.02
206.89 210.08 232.51 239.77
57.89 54.71 54.48 57.05
458.27 419.01 440.24 489.28
34.67 29.43 30.03 35.01
217.07 210.08 231.63 242.52
x x x x
0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5
6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
9 9 9 9
10 10 10 10
11 11 11 11
12 12 12 12
13 13 13 13
14 14 14 14
15 15 15 15
16 16 16 16
17 17 17 17
18 18 18 18
19 19 19 19
20 20 20 20
21 21 21 21
22 22 22 22
23 23 23 23
24 24 24 24
25 25 25 25
26 26 26 26
27 27 27 27
28 28 28 28
29 29 29 29
30 30 30 30
31 31 31 31
32 32 32 32
33 33 33 33
34 34 34 34
35 35 35 35
36 36 36 36
37 37 37 37
38 38 38 38
39 39 39 39
40 40 40 40
41 41 41 41
42 42 42 42
43 43 43 43
44 44 44 44
45 45 45 45
46 46 46 46
47 47 47 47
48 48 48 48
49 49 49 49
50 50 50 50
51 51 51 51
52 52 52 52
53 53 53 53
54 54 54 54
55 55 55 55
56 56 56 56
57 57 57 57
58 58 58 58
59 59 59 59
60 60 60 60
61 61 61 61
62 62 62 62
63 63 63 63
64 64 64 64
65 65 65 65
66 66 66 66
67 67 67 67
68 68 68 68
69 69 69 69
70 70 70 70
71 71 71 71
72 72 72 72
73 73 73 73
74 74 74 74
75 75 75 75
76 76 76 76
77 77 77 77
78 78 78 78
79 79 79 79
80 80 80 80
81 81 81 81
82 82 82 82
83 83 83 83
84 84 84 84
85 85 85 85
86 86 86 86
87 87 87 87
88 88 88 88
89 89 89 89
90 90 90 90
91 91 91 91
92 92 92 92
93 93 93 93
94 94 94 94
95 95 95 95
96 96 96 96
97 97 97 97
98 98 98 98
99 99 99 99
100 100 100 100
101 101 101 101
102 102 102 102
103 103 103 103
104 104 104 104
105 105 105 105
106 106 106 106
107 107 107 107
108 108 108 108
109 109 109 109
110 110 110 110
111 111 111 111
112 112 112 112
113 113 113 113
114 114 114 114
115 115 115 115
116 116 116 116
117 117 117 117
118 118 118 118
119 119 119 119
120 120 120 120
121 121 121 121
122 122 122 122
123 123 123 123
124 124 124 124
125 125 125 125
126 126 126 126
127 127 127 127
128 128 128 128
129 129 129 129
130 130 130 130
131 131 131 131
132 132 132 132
133 133 133 133
134 134 134 134
135 135 135 135
136 136 136 136
137 137 137 137
138 138 138 138
139 139 139 139
140 140 140 140
141 141 141 141
142 142 142 142
143 143 143 143
144 144 144 144
145 145 145 145
146 146 146 146
147 147 147 147
148 148 148 148
149 149 149 149
150 150 150 150
151 151 151 151
152 152 152 152
153 153 153 153
154 154 154 154
155 155 155 155
156 156 156 156
157 157 157 157
158 158 158 158
159 159 159 159
160 160 160 160
161 161 161 161
162 162 162 162
163 163 163 163
164 164 164 164
165 165 165 165
166 166 166 166
167 167 167 167
168 168 168 168
169 169 169 169
170 170 170 170
-Inv -Inv -Inv -Inv
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0.01 0
0 0 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0.01 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
LTD LTD LTD LTD
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0.01 0.01
0 0 0.01 0.01
0 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.05 0.06 0.02 0.02
0.06 0.06 0.03 0.03
0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0 0.02 0.02
0 0 0.02 0.02
0 0 0.02 0.02
0 0 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0 0 0.02 0.02
0 0 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01
0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01 0 0.01 0.01
0 0 0.01 0.01
0 0 0.01 0.01
0 0 0.01 0
0 0 0.01 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
s-Inv @Deliv.s-Inv @Deliv.s-Inv @Deliv.s-Inv @Deliv.
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0.01 0
0 0 0.01 0
0 0.01 0.02 0
0 0.03 0.02 0.01
0.01 0.06 0.02 0.01
0.02 0.06 0.03 0.01
0.02 0.03 0.03 0.01
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0 0.02 0.02
0.02 0 0.02 0.02
0.01 0 0.02 0.02
0.02 0 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0 0.02 0.02
0.02 0 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.02 0 0.01 0.02
0.02 0 0.01 0.01
0.01 0 0.01 0.01
0.01 0 0.01 0.01
0.01 0 0.01 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
LT+1 Dem LTDem LTDem LT+1 Dem
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0.01 0
0 0 0.01 0
0 0.01 0.02 0
0 0.03 0.02 0
0 0.06 0.02 0
0 0.06 0.03 0
0 0.03 0.03 0
0 0.01 0.02 0
0 0 0.02 0
0 0 0.02 0.01
0 0 0.02 0.01
0 0 0.02 0.01
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01
0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0 0.02 0.02
0 0 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02
0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02
0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02
0.01 0 0.01 0.02
0.02 0 0.01 0.02
0.02 0 0.01 0.02
0.02 0 0.01 0.02
0.02 0 0.01 0.02
0.03 0 0 0.02
0.03 0 0 0.02
0.02 0 0 0.01
0.02 0 0 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0.01 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0.01
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
Discrete IDT Discrete IDT Discrete IDT Discrete IDT
0 0 0 0
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Discrete F(IDT)
Discrete F(IDT)
Discrete F(IDT)
Discrete F(IDT)
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
1 1 1 1
Discrete LT Discrete LT Discrete LT Discrete LT
0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5
6 6 6 6
Discrete F(LT)
Discrete F(LT)
Discrete F(LT)
Discrete F(LT)
0 0 0 0
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1