S. R. Luthra Institute of Management: Project Work On
S. R. Luthra Institute of Management: Project Work On
S. R. Luthra Institute of Management: Project Work On
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In this project we analyse different data of GDP, INFLATION
AND PRODUTION GROWTH from some trusted source and
make report of it as given blow :
INTRODUCTION OF UAE
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(The United Arab Emirate FLAG)
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An agreement was reached between the rulers of six of the Emirates (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Umm
al-Quwain, Fujairah and Ajman), and the federation to be known as the United Arab Emirates was
formally established on 2 December 1971. The seventh Emirate, Ra’s al-Khaimah, acceded to the new
federation the following year.
Since the formation of the union, the seven Emirates have forged a distinct national identity. The UAE’s
political system has been designed to ensure the country’s heritage is maintained, adapted and
preserved by combining tradition with a modern administrative structure.
MAP OF UAE
“One of our key objectives … is to lay the groundwork for the emergence of a more active UAE
citizen. A nation is built by the thought and effort of its own citizens…to enhance unity, maintain
stability, meet citizens’ aspirations and embrace the rapid changes witnessed locally, regionally,
and internationally.”
HH Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan
UAE President
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Source: Word Bank
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Current economic condition:-
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Number of items contributing for growth
of GDP:-
The UAE has been successfully diversifying its economy, particularly
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has far smaller oil
reserves than its
counterparts. In 2011,
oil exports accounted
for 77% of the UAE's
state budget. Tourism is
one of the bigger non-
oil sources of revenue in the UAE, with some of the world's most
luxurious hotels being based in the UAE. A massive construction boom,
an expanding manufacturing base, and a thriving services sector are
helping the UAE diversify its economy. Nationwide, there is currently
$350 billion worth of active construction projects.
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not likely that any new taxes will be introduced in the foreseeable
future.
2. Tourism:-
Tourism acts as a growth sector for the entire UAE economy. Dubai is
the top tourism destination in the Middle East. According to the annual
MasterCard Global Destination Cities Index, Dubai is the fifth most
popular tourism destination in the world. Dubai holds up to 66% share
with Abu Dhabi having 16% and Sharjah 10% of the UAE’s tourism
economy. On 6 January 2020, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin
Rashid Al Maktoum announced that the tourist visa to the United Arab
Emirates, which was earlier valid for 30–90 days, was extended to five
years. It has been projected that the travel and tourism industry will
contribute about 280.6 billion United Arab Emirati dirham to the UAE's
GDP by 2028.
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local poultry farms. In 1991 local dairies produced approximately 92%
of the domestic demand for milk.
The UAE exports fruits and vegetables to markets in the United States
and Great Britain dates to Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and flowers
to Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Lebanon, Great Britain ,Australia,
and Japan.
4. Trade:-
In 2019, UAE’s GDP was an estimated $405.8 billion (current market
exchange rates); real GDP
was up by an estimated
1.3%; and the population
was 11 million. (Source:
IMF). UAE is currently our
30th largest goods trading
partner with $24.3 billion in
total (two way) goods trade
during 2019. Goods exports
totaled $20.0 billion; goods imports totaled $4.3 billion. The U.S. goods
trade surplus with UAE was $15.6 billion in 2019. According to the
Department of Commerce, U.S. exports of goods to UAE supported an
estimated 104 thousands jobs in 2015 (latest data available).
5. Real estate:-
The development in the real estate and infrastructure sectors during
the recent year has contributed in making the country a global touristic
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destination. The contribution of tourism in the Emirati GDP increased
from 3% in the mid-1990s to more than 16.5% by the end of 2010. This
trend is supported by the huge public investments in touristic projects
(47 Billion Dollars) carried mainly to expend airports, increase their
capacity, set up new airports and ports. The real estate sector have a
positive impact on development, job opportunities, investments and
tourism as estate projects were launched to meet the needs of market
and the increasing demand for housing and commercial units especially
in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The UAE has 18 tour hotels out of the 155 (150
meters high) that exist around the world. This makes the UAE the third
destination with such tours after China and America in 2014. The leap in
real estate sector along and infrastructure development in the UAE
during the recent year has contributed in making this country a global
touristic destination par excellence.
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UAE emerges as the top Arab country in areas such as living, safety and
security, economic opportunities, and starting a business, and as an
example for other states to emulate.
INFLATION
What do you mean by inflation?
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1. Demand-pull Inflation: It occurs when the demand for goods or services
is higher when compared to the production capacity. The difference
between demand and supply (shortage) result in price appreciation.
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Use the inflation rate formula (Initial CPI – Final CPI/ Initial CPI)*100.
Here CPI is the rate of the product.
This gives the increase/decrease percentage in the price of the product.
One can use this to compare the inflation rate over a period of time.
Here we used only one product to calculate inflation. However, the Ministry of
Statistics calculates inflation using a basket of selected goods and services.
Introduction
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), as a small economy with an open capital account and
pegged foreign exchange rate regime, has limited scope for exerting an independent
monetary policy. More specifically, given that its key policy objective is to maintain a
stable peg with US dollar, domestic short-term interest rates generally follow US
interest rates and therefore, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) does not anchor the
inflation target. Moreover, inflation in the UAE moves for the most part in response to
other forces that are not under the direct control of the central bank. Specifically, non-
tradables account for 63% of the CPI basket, of which housing accounts for 39% of the
total. Further, inflation of tradables (37% of the CPI basket) moves with developments
in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), largely attributed to bilateral movements
in the US dollar with respect to major trading partners. While there is no explicit
inflation target in the UAE, inflation is an important economic indicator which the
CBUAE closely monitors.
Inflation measurements
Inflation measures how quickly prices of a basket of goods and services rise in a given
period of time. In other words, it measures the general price level, where a positive
figure implies an increase in the cost of living and a fall in the purchasing power of
money. In general, the prices of a basket of goods and services that are representative
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of the economy are collected; then the cost of this basket is collated to generate a
consumer price index (CPI), which is also called headline inflation. In the UAE, headline
inflation measures the price level of a basket of 334 different categories of goods and
services, collected by the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA). This
CPI is calculated by using a Young index, which assumes expenditure weights are
constant over time.
1. The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates has developed a collection of other
operational and regulatory policy tools, such as liquidity management and
macroprudential measures, to complement the traditional monetary policy tools in the
absence of independence to set the policy interest rate. These tools play a significant
role in better monitoring monetary conditions (including inflation) and safeguarding
overall economic and financial stability in the UAE.
2. The Young index differs from the Lowe index, where quantities are constant over time
and expenditure shares are price-updated every month. In general, the Young index
tends to underestimate price movements relative to the Lowe index
The UAE experienced sustained inflation during the last decade. We noticed
different sources of data pertaining to our problem. For instance, the following
figure represents a rapid increase in the inflation rate in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.
The rate continuously increases from more than 3% (2001) to around 13% (2008).
In 2020, the inflation rate of the United Arab Emirates was at 1.25% compared to
the previous year.
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According to a recent report issued by the Department of Economic Development in
Abu Dhabi, the inflation rate in the UAE reached 12.9% (2008). This increase is
caused by an increase in prices of raw materials, oil, and imports in addition to
depreciation of US dollar exchange rate. The report added that the rent was the
highest factor influencing inflation in which the weight of rent takes more than 40%
of the consumer basket.
The Consumer Price Index in the UAE declined by 1.9% in 2019, which is the
first negative annual change in CPI inflation since the Index was first reported
by the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA) in 2009.
Deflation was driven by the continued decline in rents and utilities prices,
which represent 34% of the consumption basket, the appreciating Dirham (in
nominal terms) and the fading effect of the VAT introduced at the beginning
of 2018. Moreover, the CPI was influenced by the drop in oil prices, which
was transmitted to the domestic fuel prices through the transportation prices,
assumed to be split equally between the tradable and non-tradable.
The tradeable and non-tradeable prices have different drivers, hence their
dynamics are different. Inflation in tradable prices reversed from 6.9% in the
previous year to a deflation of -1.5% in 2019. Similarly, non-tradable prices
decreased by 2.2% in 2019 compared to an increase by 1.2% in 2018.
Effects of Inflation
Higher inflation lowers the purchasing power of money. Dirham should
operate as a store of value. When the prices of different products
increase, the value of dirham will depreciate. Additionally the real
value of our salaries and savings will be less today compared to that of
last year.
Inflation changes the distribution of national or aggregate income.
People living on fixed incomes are particularly hurt by inflation.
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If prices of products increase faster than the increase in the wages or
salaries, we will find that the workers with fixed salaries will be able to
buy only fewer quantities of products. However, the businessmen who
get the profit, their income will increase rapidly and they will be better
off.
The prices of consuming goods have increased faster than the prices of
factors of productions such as labor forces. That leads to depreciation
of our currency and results in a decrease in the purchasing power.
Causes of Inflation :-
As oil prices have increased over the past years, the UAE has received an
increasing value of oil revenues resulting in an injection of liquidity into
the domestic markets. The inflationary pressure of money supply could
not be compensated by a rapid increase in domestically produced goods
and services. That results in an increase in prices.
UAE economy is still rigid because the excess aggregate demand cannot
motivate the production process. In the long-run, we should work to
diversify the economy and give attention to technological innovation
and research.20 The basic cause of inflation is excess aggregate demand
stimulated by private consumption and government expenditures.
Since the UAE economy is a developing economy and is not flexible, the
real output could not grow rapidly as aggregate demand. We can find
out the excess aggregate demand if we calculate it based on current
prices and compare it with real GDP based on constant prices.
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For instance demand for housing units increases faster than the
increase in supply of housing units which results in an increase in rents.
Solution of inflation :-
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Production Growth sector wise :-
1) Industrial Sector :-
Together, oil and non-oil-related industries comprise the UAE’s largest sector,
totalling 51.5% of its economy.
In 2009, the export of natural resources still accounted for more than 85% of
the UAE’s economy. According to Minister of Economy Sultan Bin Saeed al-
Mansouri, however, the UAE Economic Report of 2009 shows that oil’s
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contribution to the UAE’s gross domestic product has fallen. In addition to oil-
related operations, there is a wide variety of other industries in the UAE.
The non-oil sector’s contribution to the GDP increased from 66.5% in 2008 to
71% in 2009. According to the report, manufacturing represented 16.2% of
GDP, followed by construction at 10.7%, while electricity, gas, and water
contributed 1.6%.
2) Services Sector:-
Dubai has one of the largest service sectors in the country. The services sector
has contributed to the economic growth with an annual growth rate of 21%
since 2000, constituting USD 27.6 billion or 74% of Dubai’s GDP in 2005,
decreasing to 45.3% by 2011.
In comparison, the trade sector has experienced the highest increase in GDP
share, and the manufacturing and oil- and gas sectors combined have
decreased. In contrast, the manufacturing sector has grown by an average of
12% annually since 2000.
Under the new Companies Law, the UAE may allow foreigners to own 100%
of companies in the services industry. Foreign investors are currently
permitted to own a maximum of 49% of a UAE company. In certain areas of
the financial sector, such as insurance, the limit on foreign ownership is as
low as 2%.
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3) Agriculture:-
The UAE has a small but steadily growing agricultural sector, despite the
country’s harsh desert conditions. Modern irrigation techniques, water from
aquifers deep underground, and desalination have made possible the
cultivation of large areas.
Some small-scale farming thrives in oases and artificial farms, using various
methods of climate control and irrigation. Among the country’s products are
vegetables, watermelons, poultry, eggs, dairy products, and fish.
The UAE has served as a base for international oil companies, and always
encouraged foreign investment into its oil and gas exploration and production
sectors. U.S. oil and gas companies are strategically positioned as preferred
suppliers and contractors for the UAE, though they should expect tough
competition from Asian, European, and local firms.
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According to the UAE State of Energy Report 2019, UAE has an estimated 98
billion barrels of oil reserves.
5) Construction Sector :-
In the last five years, the GCC has experienced a record boom in the
infrastructure sector. Construction projects in the GCC exceeded $1 trillion,
with two-thirds of the projects being undertaken in the UAE.
The construction and real estate sector in the UAE posted double-digit growth
on a year-on-year basis and contributed 15% to GDP.
The unprecedented growth in the UAE’s construction and real estate sector
had Dubai and Abu Dhabi observing the highest increase in the number of
construction projects.
Dubai has seen a major boom in the construction and real estate sector,
making it a hub for some of the world’s biggest construction companies,
including Nakheel PJSC and Emaar Properties PJSC.
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