AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE USE OF CONSTRUCTION DELAY AND

DISRUPTION ANALYSIS METHODOLOGIES

Nuhu Braimah B.Sc. (Hons)

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of

Wolverhampton for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

August 2008

Declaration

This work or any part thereof has not previously been presented in any form to the
University or to any other body whether for the purposes of assessment, publication or
for any other purpose. Save for any express acknowledgment references and/or
bibliographies cited in the work, I confirm that the intellectual contents of the work
are the result of my own efforts and no other person.

The right of Nuhu Braimah to be identified as author of this work is asserted in

accordance with ss.77 and 78 of the Copyright, Design and Patents Act 1988. At this
date copyright is owned by the author.

Signature:………………………………….

Date:……………………………………….

i
 ABSTRACT

Delay and disruption (DD) to contractors’ progress, often resulting in time and cost

overruns, are a major source of claims and disputes in the construction industry. At

the heart of the matter in dispute is often the question of the extent of each contracting

party’s responsibility for the delayed project completion and extra cost incurred.

Various methodologies have been developed over the years as aids to answering this

question. Whilst much has been written about DD, there is limited information on the

extent of use of these methodologies in practice. The research reported in this thesis

was initiated to investigate these issues in the UK, towards developing a framework

for improving DD analysis. The methodology adopted in undertaking this research

was the mixed method approach involving first, a detailed review of the relevant

literature, followed by an industry-wide survey on the use of these methodologies and

associated problems. Following this, interviews were conducted to investigate the

identified problems in more depth. The data collected were analysed, with the aid of

SPSS and Excel, using a variety of statistical methods including descriptive statistics

analysis, relative index analysis, Kendall’s concordance and factor analysis. The key

finding was that DD analysis methodologies reported in the literature as having major

weaknesses are the most widely used in practice mainly due to deficiencies in

programming and record keeping practice. To facilitate the use of more reliable

methodologies, which ensure more successful claims resolution with fewer chances of

disputes, a framework has been developed comprising of: (i) best practice

recommendations for promoting better record-keeping and programming practice and;

(ii) a model for assisting analysts in their selection of appropriate delay analysis

methodology for any claims situation. This model was validated by means of experts’

review via a survey and the findings obtained suggest that the model is valuable and

suitable for use in practice. Finally, areas for further research were identified.

ii
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE………………………………………………………………...i
ABSTRACT………………………………………………….........................ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS…………………………………………………...iii
LIST OF TABLES………………………………........................................viii
LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………….....x
LIST OF APPENDICES…………………………………………………….xi
LIST OF CASES. …………………………………………………..............xii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS………………………………………...........xiv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………xvii
DEDICATION……………………………………………………………xviii

1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION.......................................................................1
1.1 Background to the research ................................................................1
1.2 Delay and Disruption Claims..............................................................5
1.3 Problem definition ...............................................................................6
1.3.1 Lack of uniformity in the application of
DD methodologies ...................................................................10
1.3.2 Lack of sufficient guidance from
contracts and case law on DDA..............................................11
1.3.3 Poor planning and programming
practice ....................................................................................11
1.4 Aims and Objectives ..........................................................................12
1.5 Research Questions............................................................................13
1.6 Research Methodology ......................................................................13
1.7 Summary of Findings, Conclusions and
Recommendations ..............................................................................14
1.7.1 Research findings and Conclusions .......................................14
1.7.2 Best Practice recommendations and
DAM selection model ..............................................................17
1.8 Main Achievements and Contribution to
Knowledge ..........................................................................................20
1.9 Structure of the Thesis.......................................................................22

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .................................................................26

2.1 Introduction........................................................................................26
2.2 Research Design and Methods..........................................................26
2.3 Literature Review ..............................................................................29
2.4 Design of the survey questionnaire...................................................30
2.5 Sampling .............................................................................................32
2.6 Data Collection ...................................................................................32
2.7 Data Analysis......................................................................................33
2.7.1 Descriptive statistics analysis..................................................34
2.7.2 Relative index analysis............................................................34
2.7.3 Kendall Coefficient of Concordance
and Chi-square tests................................................................35
2.7.4 Spearman Rank Order Correlation test .................................36
2.7.5 Factor analysis ........................................................................36

iii
 2.8 Design of Interviews...........................................................................37
2.9 Interview data collection ...................................................................39
2.10 Best practice recommendations ........................................................40
2.11 A model for selecting appropriate DAM .........................................40
2.12 Summary.............................................................................................41

3 THEORETICAL CONCEPTS AND LEGAL

PRINCIPLES GOVERNING DD CLAIMS
RESOLUTIONS.............................................................................................42
3.1 Introduction........................................................................................42
3.2 Types of delay.....................................................................................43
3.2.1 Concurrent delays ...................................................................47
3.2.2 Concurrent Delay Types and their
Remedies..................................................................................49
3.3 Float.....................................................................................................55
3.3.1 Float belongs to the contractor...............................................57
3.3.2 Float belongs to the project ....................................................58
3.3.3 Float belongs to either party so long as
it is reasonably utilised............................................................59
3.4 Early completion programmes .........................................................60
3.5 Delays experienced after completion date .......................................62
3.6 Requirements for the production and
assessment of DD claims....................................................................63
3.7 Summary.............................................................................................73

4 PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING ISSUES ..........................................76

4.1 Introduction........................................................................................76
4.2 Deficiencies in Contractors’ Programmes .......................................77
4.2.1 Poor baseline programmes .....................................................79
4.2.2 Failure to update programmes ...............................................81
4.2.3 Inadequately updated programmes ........................................82
4.3 Causes of the deficiencies ..................................................................83
4.3.1 Inadequate planning expertise ...............................................84
4.3.2 Poor enforcement of programming
obligations ...............................................................................85
4.3.3 Poor personal liaison of planners with
others .......................................................................................85
4.3.4 Lack of proper communication ..............................................86
4.3.5 Inadequate planning effort.....................................................86
4.3.6 Inefficient allocation of construction
planning resources..................................................................87
4.3.7 Poor involvement of field personnel.......................................87
4.3.8 Insufficient time and information for
proper tender preparation.......................................................88
4.3.9 Inadequate contractual provisions for
programming...........................................................................88
4.3.10 Contract administrator’s programming
expertise...................................................................................88
4.3.11 Programmesmanship ..............................................................89
4.4 Programming practice contribution to DD
analysis difficulties .............................................................................89

iv
 4.5 Summary.............................................................................................92

5 METHODOLOGIES FOR ANALYSING DD

CLAIMS..........................................................................................................93
5.1 Introduction........................................................................................93
5.2 Delay and Disruption contrasted......................................................93
5.3 Delay Analysis Methodologies (DAMs)............................................95
5.3.1 Differences between the methodologies .................................97
5.3.2 Brief description of the various DAMs.................................100
5.3.3 Appropriate use of the methodologies ..................................105
5.4 Disruption Analysis Methodologies (DSAM) ................................109
5.4.1 The Measured Mile Technique.............................................112
5.4.2 Industry Studies and Guidelines ..........................................113
5.4.3 Total Cost Method.................................................................114
5.4.4 Modified total cost approach ................................................117
5.4.5 Jury Verdict ...........................................................................117
5.4.6 Time and Motion Studies......................................................118
5.4.7 System Dynamics Modelling Approach ...............................118
5.4.8 Earned Value Management..................................................119
5.4.9 Comments on the acceptability of the
various DSAMs .....................................................................120
5.5 Summary...........................................................................................124

6 SURVEY ON METHODLOGIES FOR

ANALYSING DD CLAIMS........................................................................126
6.1 Introduction......................................................................................126
6.2 Survey response................................................................................126
6.3 Characteristics of the respondents and their
organisations.....................................................................................127
6.4 Timing of DD claims submissions and
assessment.........................................................................................130
6.5 Extent of disputes on DD claims .....................................................131
6.6 Reasons for disputes over DD claims .............................................131
6.6.1 Failure to establish causal link ............................................133
6.6.2 Inadequate supporting documentation
on quantum ...........................................................................133
6.6.3 Insufficient breakdown of claim
amount...................................................................................134
6.7 Involvement in DD claims Preparation and
Assessment ........................................................................................134
6.8 Perceptions on existing DAMs ........................................................137
6.8.1 Level of Awareness of the methods ......................................137
6.8.2 Extent of use of the methods.................................................138
6.8.3 Reliability of the methodologies in delay
claims analysis.......................................................................139
6.8.4 Correlation between DAM rankings ....................................142
6.8.5 Obstacles to the use of DAMs ...............................................143
6.8.6 Factors influencing the selection of
DAMs.....................................................................................146
6.8.7 Application of factor analysis to the
selection factors.....................................................................149

v
 6.9 Perceptions on DSAMs ....................................................................155
6.9.1 Level of awareness and use of DSAMs ................................156
6.9.2 The reliability of DSAMs ......................................................158
6.9.3 Correlation between the rankings of
DSAMs...................................................................................160
6.10 General comments on the problems
responsible for DD analysis difficulties..........................................161
6.11 Summary...........................................................................................163

7 INTERVIEW RESULTS ON PROGRAMMING

ISSUES..........................................................................................................166
7.1 Introduction......................................................................................166
7.2 Baseline programme development .................................................167
7.3 Use of the baseline programme.......................................................170
7.4 Involvement in baseline programme
development......................................................................................172
7.5 Resource loading and levelling .......................................................173
7.6 Programme updating.......................................................................176
7.7 Progress reporting ...........................................................................179
7.8 Keeping records of crew productivity............................................181
7.9 Summary...........................................................................................183

8 A BEST PRACTICE MODEL FOR SELECTING

APPROPRIATE DAM ................................................................................186
8.1 Introduction......................................................................................186
8.2 The need for decision model for DAM
selection.............................................................................................187
8.3 Overview of Decision Models..........................................................188
8.3.1 Scoring Multi-Attribute Analysis
(SMAA)..................................................................................191
8.3.2 Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)..................................192
8.3.3 Multiple Regression (MR) ....................................................193
8.3.4 Linear programming (LP) ....................................................194
8.3.5 Cluster analysis (CA) ............................................................194
8.3.6 Multivariate discriminant analysis
(MDA)....................................................................................195
8.3.7 The technique adopted for the DAM
selection model ......................................................................195
8.4 Construction of DAM selection model ...........................................199
8.4.1 Identification of DAMs and selection
criteria....................................................................................199
8.4.2 Gathering data on selection criteria....................................201
8.4.3 Rating of DAMs in respect of the
selection criteria. ...................................................................201
8.4.4 Computing suitability scores for the
methodologies........................................................................202
8.4.5 Selecting the most appropriate
methodology ..........................................................................202
8.4.6 Evaluating the various selection criteria
against the methodologies.....................................................203

vi
 8.4.7 Limitations and Capabilities of the
model......................................................................................211
8.5 Summary...........................................................................................211

9 VALIDATION OF DAM SELECTION MODEL ....................................213

9.1 Introduction......................................................................................213
9.2 Validation and its Techniques.........................................................213
9.2.1 The technique adopted for validating
the DAM selection model......................................................217
9.3 Application of the model to a hypothetical
case study ..........................................................................................218
9.3.1 Case study scenario...............................................................218
9.3.2 Application of the model to the scenario..............................221
9.4 Development of validation questionnaire ......................................227
9.5 Selection of the experts and response.............................................227
9.6 Analysis of experts’ response ..........................................................228
9.7 Summary...........................................................................................232

10 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.....................................234

10.1 Introduction......................................................................................234
10.2 Research Findings and Conclusions...............................................235
10.3 Best Practice Recommendations.....................................................245
10.4 A model for selecting appropriate DAM .......................................250
10.5 Recommendations for further research.........................................252

REFERENCES.............................................................................................255

vii
 LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 Studies on methodologies for analysing DD claims…………………….4

Table 3.1 Remedies for concurrent delays………………………………………..52

Table 5.1 Names of existing DAMs……………………………………………….96

Table 5.2 Comments on DAMs compiled from the literature…………………. ..106

Table 5.3 Factors influencing the selection of DAM……………………………..109

Table 5.4 Existing DSAM………………………………………………………...111

Table 5.5 Comments on DSAMs compiled from the literature………………...122-3

Table 6.1 Construction organisation response......…………………………….......127

Table 6.2 Consulting organisation response..........……………………………......128

Table 6.3 Experience of respondents……………………………………………...129

Table 6.4 Proposition that most DD claims are resolved nearer

project completions or after………………………………………….....130

Table 6.5 The proposition that most DD claims resolutions results

in disputes……………………………………………………………...131

Table 6.6 Reasons for dispute over DD claims…………………………………....132

Table 6.7 Level of involvement contractors’ staff………………….……………..135

Table 6.8 Level of Involvement of employers’ consultants……………………....136

Table 6.9 Level of awareness of the methods…………………………………….138

Table 6.10 Extent of use of the methods……………………………………….....139

Table 6.11 Level of success with delay claims analysed using the methods…......140

Table 6.12 Frequency of challenges to claims analysed using the methods……...141

Table 6.13 Spearman Rank Order correlations on DAMs rankings………….......142

Table 6.14 Obstacles to the use of DAMs………………………………………...144

Table 6.15 Relative importance of DAM selection factors……………………....148

Table 6.16 Principal Component Analysis Results…………………………….....150

Table 6.17 Level of awareness of DSAMs………………………………………..156

viii
Table 6.18 Extent of use of DSAMs.……………………………………………...157

Table 6.19 Level of success with disruption claims analysed using

the methods……………………………………………………………159

Table 6.20 Frequency of challenges to claims analysed using

the methods……………………………………………………………160

Table 6.21 Spearman Rank Order correlations on DSAM rankings………….........161

Table 6.22 Problems responsible for poor resolutions of DD claims………….......162

Table 7.1 Extent of submission of baseline programme……………………….......167

Table 7.2 Other preconstruction planning deliverables………………………........170

Table 7.3 Involvement in preconstruction programming………………………......173

Table 7.4 Extent of resource loading and levelling of programmes…………….....174

Table 7.5 Extent of programme updating and progress reporting…………….........177

Table 7.6 Involvement in programme updating…………………………………....178

Table 7.7 Extent of keeping crew productivity records………………………....…182

Table 8.1 Characteristics of decision-making tools……………………………......196

Table 8.2 Computation of suitability scores of DAM……………………………...203

Table 8.3 Important project information required for the application

of DAMs………………………………………………………………..204

Table 8.4 Main programming requirements of DAMs………………………….....205

Table 8.5 Relevant programmes updates for DAMs application……………….....205

Table 8.6 Capabilities of DAMs in proving common delay claims issues……......207

Table 8.7 Capabilities of DAMs in dealing with important characteristics

of delays………………………………………………………………..210

Table 9.1 Suitability scores of Window Analysis………………………………....226

Table 9.2 Total suitability scores of the DAMs…………………………………....227

Table 9.3: Profile of the validation experts………………………………………..229

Table 9.4 Summary of response from experts………………………………….....230

ix
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Flow chart showing the process of the research………………………....25

Figure 3.1 Delay Classifications…………………………………………………….46

Figure 3.2 Different scenarios that define Concurrent delays…………………........48

Figure 4.1 The relationship between programming and DD information

problems/disputes………………………………………………………....91

Figure 5.1 Delay and disruption analysis depicted as bookends

supporting a Claim……………………………………………………...95

Figure 5.2 DAMs classification………………………………………………….....97

Figure 5.3 Characteristics of DAMs…………………………………………….....100

Figure 5.4 Sources of data relied on by various DSAMs……………………….....120

Figure 7.1 Use of programmes in DD management…………………………….....172

Figure 8.1 Conceptual Framework for the selection of DAM…………………......198

Figure 8.2 Model for the selection of DAM……………………………………….200

Figure 8.3 Suitability of DAMs against project characteristics criteria……….......209

x
 LIST OF APPENDICES

Appendix A: Sample survey questionnaire and accompanying cover letter….........296

Appendix B: Correlation matrix of DAM selection factors……………………......306

Appendix C: Sample Interview Questionnaire………………………………….....307

Appendix D: Spearman Rank Order Correlations between

DAMs & DSAMs ratings…………………………………………....311

Appendix E: Sample validation survey questionnaire and accompanying

cover letter…………………………………………………………...320

xi
 LIST OF CASES

John Doyle Construction Ltd v Laing Management (Scotland) Ltd, ................51,115

(2004) BLR 295
H. Fairweather and Co. Ltd v London Borough of Wandsworth .........51
(1987) 38 BLR 106
Henry Boot construction (UK) Ltd v Malmaison Hotel (Manchester) .........52,58,65
Ltd (1999) 70 Con L.R. 32
Amalgamated Building Contractors Ltd v Waltham Holy Cross UDC ..........53,62
(1952) All ER 452 at 455)
The Royal Brompton Hospital NHS Trust v Hammond (No. 7) ..........53,65
(2001) 76 Con L.R. 148
Motherwell Bridge Construction Ltd v Micafil Vakuumtechnik .........53,66
(2002) 81 Con L.R. 44
Peak Construction (Liverpool) Ltd v McKinney Foundations Ltd ...........54
(1970) 1 BLR 111
Rapid Building Group Ltd v Ealing Family Housing Association Ltd ...........54
(1984) 29 BLR
5 Walter Lawrence and Son Ltd v Commercial Union Properties .............54
(UK) Ltd (1984) 4 Con. L.R. 37
Mirant Asia-Pacific Construction (Hong Kong) Ltd v Ove Arup .........55,67
Partners International Ltd (2007) EWHC 918 (TCC)).
Ascon Contracting Ltd v Alfred McAlpine Construction Isle of Man ..........57,58
Ltd (1999) 66 Con L. R. 119
Glenlion Construction Ltd v The Guinness Trust (1987) 39 BLR 89 .............60

Balfour Beatty Building v Chestermount Properties (1993) 62 BLR 1 ............62

McAlpine Humberoak v McDermott International (1992) 58 BLR 1 ...........63

at 55
John Barker Construction Ltd v London Portman Hotel Ltd (1996) ..........64,67
83 BLR 31
Balfour Beatty Construction Limited v The Mayor and Burgess of ........64,66,81,107
the London Borough of Lambeth (2002) 1 BLR 288
Balfour Beatty construction Ltd v Serco ltd (2004) EWHC 3336 ...............66
(TCC)
Skanska Construction UK Ltd v Egger (Barony) Ltd (2004) EWHC .........69,116
1748 (TCC)

xii
Great Eastern Hotel Company Ltd v John Laing Construction Ltd ..............69
(2005)EWHC 181 (TCC)
City Inn Ltd v Shepherd Construction Ltd (2007) CSOH CA101/00. ..............69,71

Leighton Contractors (Asia) Limited v Stelux Holding Ltd HCCT .................72

29/2004
Pacific Construction Co. Ltd. v Greater Vancouver Regional ..............81
Hospital District (1986) 23 CLR 35 (B.C.S.Ct)
Fortec Construction v. United States (1985) 8 Cl. Ct. 490 ................82

Continental Consolidation Corp. v. United State. Nos. 2743 and ................82

2766, 67-2 BCA 6624
Try Construction Limited v Eton Town House Group (2003) ...............107
EWHC60 (TCC)
J. Crosby & Sons Ltd v Portland Urban District Council (1967) 5 ..............114
BLR 121
London Borough of Merton v Stanley Hugh Leach Ltd (1985) 32 ................114
BLR 51
Wharf properties Ltd and Another v Eric Cummins Associates and .............115
Others (1991) 52 BLR 8
Mid Glamorgan County Council v J Devonald Williams & Partners ............115
(1992) 8 Con LJ 61
Imperial Chemical Industries Plc v Bovis Construction Limited and ..............115
Others (1992) CILL 776
British Airways Pension Trustees Ltd v Sir Robert McAlpine & Sons ...............115
Ltd (1994) 72 BLR 31
Peter Kiewit Sons’ Co. v. Summit Construction Co. 422 F.2d 242 ................118
(8th Cir. 1969).

xiii
 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AACE Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering

A/E Architect/Engineer

AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process

ACWP Actual Cost of Work Performed

All ER All English Law Reports

ADR Alternative Dispute Resolution

BCA Federal Board of Contract Appeals

B.C.S.Ct British Columbia Supreme Court

BCWP Budgeted Cost of Work Performed

BCWS Budgeted Cost of Work Schedule

BLR Building Law Report

CA Cluster Analysis

CILL Construction Industry Law Letter

CIOB Chartered Institute of Building

Cl. Ct. United States Claims Court

Con L.R. Construction Law Reports

CPA Critical Path Analysis

CPM Critical Path Method

DAM Delay Analysis Methodology

DD Delay and Disruption

DDA Delay and Disruption Analysis

DM Decision Maker

DSAM Disruption Analysis Methodology

xiv
EC Excusable Compensable Delay

EN Excusable Non-compensable Delay

EVM Earned Value Management

EWHC England and Wales High Court

FST Fuzzy Set Theory

F.2d Federal Reporter, Second Series

ICE Institute of Civil Engineers

ICT Information and Communication Technology

KBES Knowledge-based Expert Systems

KMO Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin

LP Linear programming

MAA Multi-Attribute Analysis

MAUT Multi-Attribute Utility Theory

MCAA Mechanical Contractors’ Association of America

MCDM Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

MDA Multivariate Discriminate Analysis

MOA Multiple-Objective Analysis

NCE New Civil Engineer

NN Nonexcusable Noncompensable Delays

PERT Programme Evaluation Review Technique

QS Quantity Surveyor

RI Relative index

RICS Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors

SCL Society of Construction Law

SMAA Scoring Multi-Attribute Analysis

SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences

xv
TCC Technology and Construction Court

W Kendall’s coefficient of concordance

xvi
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am indebted to many organisations and individuals that offered assistance in

undertaking and successful completing this research. Foremost, my special thanks

goes to Dr Issaka Ndekugri, my Director of Studies, for his kindness, patience,

encouragement, valuable guidance and pragmatic supervision provided throughout the

period of the research. His continuing interest provided me with confidence and

fortitude in moving the research through to completion. I am also most thankful to my

second supervisors, Professor Paul Olomolaiye (the Dean of School of Engineering

and Built Environment) and Dr. Rod Gameson, for their thoughtful contributions,

guidance and support. I am grateful to the School of Engineering and Built

Environment for giving me the permission and financial support to commence this

thesis in the first instance. Thanks are due to the Directors and Staff of the various

construction organisations who generously gave their time in responding to the

research questionnaires. Special thanks are also due to my lovely wife, Mariatu, for

her never-ending support, prayers and encouragement throughout the study period and

my children Hisham, Abdul-Nasir and Adnan who as a result of this programme were

deprived of the necessary fatherly care and attention when they needed it most. I am

thankful to my parents, brothers, sisters, in-laws, and other members of my extended

family for their constant encouragement, prayers and support. Finally, I am most

grateful to my former colleagues for taking time to read some aspects of the research

work and providing helpful comments and also for availing themselves to random

discussions on research matters, which provided valuable hints and suggestions.

xvii
 DEDICATION

This research is dedicated to my Father, Braimah Bukari, Mother, Mrs. Mariama

Braimah, Brothers and Sisters and my family, my Wife, Mariatu Nuhu and Children,

Hisham, Abdul-Nasir and Adnan Nuhu.

xviii
 CHAPTER ONE

1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the research

The time and cost for performance of a project are usually of the essence to the

employer and the contractor. This is because late completion of projects can deny

employers the benefits or profits that accrue through use of the project and may also

expose them to serious financial and economic risks such as high interest rates and

loss of market opportunities. On the contractor’s side, delay in completion entails

additional cost accruing from extended home office and site office overheads, labour

and equipment standby costs and other intangible cost such as opportunity cost.

Despite these effects, it is sadly all too common that most projects are not completed

within the agreed contract period and for the price it was tendered for. Notable recent

examples in the UK include the British Library, the Millennium Dome, the Scottish

Parliament Building, the Docklands Light Railway, The Brompton Hospital, the West

Coast Mainline Upgrade for Network Rail, the Jubilee Line Tube Extension, and the

Wembley Stadium, which suffered huge time and cost overruns. Not surprisingly,

many landmark reports on review of the UK construction industry (NEDO, 1983;

Latham, 1994; Egan, 1998; 2002; OGC, 2003) identified delays and disruptions (DD)

associated with project delivery as major issues.

The contractual approach to dealing with DD issues has been to provide in the

contract document circumstances that are likely to cause project delay and the

mechanism for resolving them. Typically, most contracts excuse contractors from the

consequences and/or allow compensation for DD arising from events or

1
circumstances of which the risk is borne by the employer or is shared between the

parties. Provisions are also made for allowing the employer to recover liquidated

damages from the contractor for failure to deliver the project within the contract

performance period. Liquidated damages clauses entitle the employer to recovery of a

specified sum of money for each day or week of contractor culpable delay. In both

instances, a detailed schedule analysis is required to investigate the events that have

actually caused the project to experience time and cost overruns in order to determine

the right amount of compensations for the injured party. This task is often termed

“Delay and Disruption Analysis (DDA)” and is usually undertaken using various

techniques mostly based on critical path method (CPM), now a recognised tool for

this function (Wickwire et al., 1989; Kallo, 1996b).

In most cases, however, DD issues which ought to be managed in the course of a

project are translated into claims situations and subsequently disputes (Diekmann and

Nelson, 1985; Semple et al., 1994; Kumaraswamy, 1997; Kumaraswamy and Chan,

1998). The disputes are often resolved through expensive forms of dispute resolution

settings such as court litigation. Significant cost usually flows from this state of affairs

with dire consequences to all project stakeholders and the society at large. It has been

estimated that such disputes cost the UK construction industry alone £8billion

annually (Pickavance, 2003; Pickavance, 2005, p.322).

Consequently, there has been much desire to reduce or avoid DD claims disputes and

this has created considerable research interest among researchers and practitioners.

Most of the studies undertaken can be classified under six categories as indicated in

Table 1.1. The first, and most populated, consists of studies aimed at the development

2
of productivity charts/models for analysing the impacts of productivity factors as a

result of disruptions. The second group covers studies aimed at improving existing

disruption analysis methodologies (DSAMs). The third category consists of those

studies aimed at development or refinements to existing delay analysis methodologies

(DAMs) to address a number of issues that affect analysis results.

The fourth group of studies has been aimed at development of Information and

Communication Technology (ICT) support tools for performing delay analysis such

as knowledge-based systems and other decision support systems. The fifth group

involves the development of systems dynamics models for analysing causation in DD

claims resolution. The question of causation concerns the need for a claimant to prove

not only that a risk allocated to the other party occurred but also that it caused the

delay and/or disruption complained of. Finally, there have been surveys into some

aspects of DD claims analysis.

Despite the increased attention, DD claims resolution continues to pose a great

challenge for project employers and contractors at all levels of the supply chain

(Pickavance, 2005; Pinnell, 2005). Stimulated by this state, this research was initiated

to investigate the current use of the methodologies for analysing DD claims in

practice and the associated problems towards developing an appropriate framework

for improving practice. To clearly define the scope of the research, DD claims are

briefly defined in the next section.

3
 Table 1.1 Studies on methodologies for analysing DD claims
Aim of study/problem addressed Literature
Development of productivity
charts/models for assessing the
impacts of disruption due to:
adverse weather Grimm and Wagner (1974); NECA (1974); Harris and McCaffer
(1975); Hancher and Abd-Elkhalek (1998); Thomas et al.(1999).
variation or change orders Moselhi et al. (1991); Thomas and Napolitan (1995); Thomas and
Oloufa (1995); Ibbs (1997); Hanna et al. (1999a, 1999b); Hanna
and Gunduz (2004); Ibbs (2005); Moselhi et al (2005)
overtime BRT (1980); CII (1988, 1994); Blomberg (1988); Thomas (1992);
Hanna et al.(2005).
learning curve effects Verschuren (1985); Thomas et al.(1986); Everett and Farghal
(1994)
acceleration and congestion Thomas and Jansma (1985); Thomas et al. (1989); Horner and
Talhouni (1995)

Improvements to existing DSAMs Zink (1990); Finke (1997a, 1998a, 1998b); Thomas and Zavrski
(1999); Presnell (2003); Gulezian and Frederick (2003); Norfleet
(2005); Ibbs and Liu (2005)
Development or refinements to
existing DAMs to address issues
of:
concurrent delays Kraiem and Diekman (1987); Arditi and Robinson, (1995);
Galloway and Nielsen (1990); Alkass et al., (1996); Ng et al.
(2004); Mbabazi et al.(2005)
migration of the critical path Reams (1989); Bordoli and Baldwin (1998); Finke (1997b, 1999);
Shi et al. (2001); Sandlin et al. (2004); Hegazy and Zhang (2005);
Kim et al. (2005); Ottesen, (2006).
ownership of float Chehayeb et al.(1995); Gothand (2003); Al-Gahtani and Mohan
(2005)
disruption, acceleration Arditi and Patel (1989); Ryu, et al. (2003); Lee et al.(2005); Ibbs
and resources allocation and Nguyen (2007)

Application of Information and

Communication Technology in
delay analysis
knowledge-based systems Moselhi and Nicholas (1990); Raid et al. (1991); Diekmann and
Kim (1992)
decision support systems Reams (1987); Bubbers and Christian (1992); Yates (1993); Moselhi
and El-Rayes (2002)
Computer-aided approaches Mazerolle and Alkass (1993); Battikha and Alkass (1994); Alkass et
al.(1995); Lucas (2002); Oliveros and Fayek (2005)
Applications of systems dynamics Williams et al. (1995); Ackerman et al. (1997); Chapman (1998);
in DD analysis Howick and Eden (2001); Williams et al. (2003); Eden et al. (2004);
Cooper et al. (2004).
Surveys into aspects of delay Scott (1993a); Scott (1997); Bordoli and Baldwin (1998); Harris and
analysis including practitioners Scott (2001); Scott and Harris (2004); Kumaraswamy and
views’ on DAMs, concurrent Yogeswaran (2003)
delays and float ownership.

4
1.2 Delay and Disruption Claims

The term ‘claim’ is defined in the context of construction projects as any application

by the contractor whether for an extension of time, payment, or otherwise, which

arises other than under the ordinary contract provisions for payment of the value of

work (Powell-Smith and Stephenson, 1989; Trickey and Hackett, 2001). There are

four main bases on which a claim may be made in law (Powell-Smith and Stephenson,

1989):

under express contract conditions-contractual claims;

for breach of contract at common law- common law claims;

on quasi-contractual or restitutionary basis- quantum meruit claims; and

on ‘out of kindness’ basis-ex gratia awards or claims.

The majority of contractors’ claims are contractual in nature and often result from the

project’s delays and/or disruption (Diekmann and Nelson, 1985; Semple et al., 1994;

Kumaraswamy, 1997), which are caused by matters that are the employer’s

responsibility, the contractor’s own responsibility or by neither party (e.g. an act of

god). The successful settlement of a typical DD claims usually requires that the

claimants goes through five main processes (Lee, 1983; Williams et al., 2003; Klanac

and Nelson, 2004):

(i) establishment of contractual/legal basis for the claim(Liability);

(ii) establishment of causal link between each delay and/or disruption event

and the resulting extended duration and/or additional cost (Causation);

(iii) evaluation of effect and quantify the amount of time and/or cost of the

impacts (Quantum);

(iv) compilation and submission of claim; and

5
 (v) Negotiation of settlement.

The second and third elements are relatively difficult to deal with than the rest

(Keane, 1994; Carnell, 2000; Klanac and Nelson, 2004). This research is therefore

concerned with the methodologies for proving or disproving these elements in claims

of contractual nature, typically allowed for by most of the standard form of contracts.

It is noteworthy that delay claims and that of disruption are completely two different

heads of claims, although the two terms are often spoken of together as “delay and

disruption”. Different methodologies are therefore used for analysing claims on delays

and those based upon disruption. However, due to the close association between

events that cause project DD, the proof of a typical claim may require a combination

of the two separate methodologies in order to develop a holistic argument for

contractual entitlement to additional time and cost. Detailed distinction between the

two types of claims and their methodologies are provided in Chapter 5.

1.3 Problem definition

The task of justifying and quantifying the effect of each DD event required to be

satisfied for the proof of causation and quantum is well recognised as an extremely

difficult undertaking. This is partly due to the nature of DD events itself. Not only do

these events come from a variety of sources (Borcherding, 1978; Hanna and Heale,

1994; Kumaraswamy, 1997), they also have different effects and implications

resulting in complex ramifications, creating considerable difficulty to practitioners in

the claims resolution. As an example, a delay in the issue of drawings to a contractor

can bring about consequences such as out-of-sequence work, work stoppages, poor

6
morale and diminishing of learning curve. The effect of these is often the contractor

working less efficiently than originally anticipated, manifesting itself in additional

cost being incurred and/or delay to the project completion as a whole. To overcome

such delay, the contractor may be asked to accelerate the work or may do this

constructively, which may result in parallel working with concomitant disruptions

impacting negatively on productivity.

The above example shows how a very simple delay event can generate into a situation

of a very complex interaction of a combination of different events, which could be

difficult to unravel and sort out clearly into their individual causes and effects. A more

complex situation is often triggered when a number of changes or variations are

ordered by the employer. The cumulative (synergistic) impacts of multiple changes

are particularly troublesome to resolve as described by a Construction Industry

Institute report (Hester et al. 1991) - “when there are multiple changes on a project and

they act in sequence or concurrently there is a compounding effect – this is the most

damaging consequence for a project and the most difficult to understand and manage. The net

effect of the individual effect of the individual changes is much greater than a sum of the

individual parts”.

The challenging nature of resolving DD claims has resulted, in part, in numerous

initiatives from researchers and practitioners over the years with the aim of ensuring

amicable resolution of claims, or if possible, for complete avoidance of claims

situations. These initiatives include the following.

First, there is the view that, in order to avoid disputes from claims, contracting parties

should begin projects with suitable contract languages and with appropriate

7
Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) mechanism (Levitt et al., 1980; Diekmann and

Girard, 1995). Under this, particular areas of attention suggested include the adoption

of equitable risk allocation and better understanding and interpretation of contractual

provisions (Perry, 1986; Thomas et al., 1994; Revay, 1995). Equitable risk allocation

entails recognising known project risks and properly assigning them to the appropriate

party. This is done based on a number of principles with the principal one being that

the responsibility for a particular risk under the contract should be assigned to the

party that has the competence and capability to deal with it, should it arise (Ward et

al., 1991; Kangari, 1995b; Smith, 1995; Zack, 1995; Megens, 1997). For example, it

is unreasonable to assign the risk of project design to the contractor in projects

procured using the traditional form of procurement. As a dispute-reduction strategy,

the concept of risk allocation has been employed, over the past decade, to change the

way projects are procured in the UK. These include the amendments of procurement

routes, promotion of innovative procurement strategies such as Design and Build,

Partnering and Public-Private Partnership/Private Finance Initiative. The use of these

procurement methods, particularly for major works is highly encouraged by the UK

government (CPA, 1993). This has probably led to their increase use by the industry

as various surveys suggest (Ndekugri and Turner, 1994; Ridout, 1999; Langdon and

Everest, 1996; 2002). The Engineering and Construction Contract developed in the

UK by the Institute of Civil Engineers (ICE, 1995) is also contended to be one of the

most innovative contract forms aimed at ensuring dispute-free projects (Latham,

1994; Revay, 1995). The main departures of this form from the other forms is that, not

only does it divides the historical role of the Engineer/Architect between the Project

Manager, Supervisor, the designer and the Adjudicator, it also deals with claims

situation in a more comprehensive and effective manner.

8
Second, there is the view that to minimise claims, more time and money should be

allocated to project’s design phase in order to reduce the number of changes to the

contract (Wilson, 1982; Revay, 1992; Zack, 1997). This recommendation is based on

the fact that majority of DD claims are caused by differing site conditions, variations,

inadequate and inaccurate design information (Ibbs and Ashley, 1987; Choy and

Sidwell, 1991; Kumaraswamy, 1997). Areas of particular attention recommended

include increasing the design period, improving ground investigations and employing

proper documentation checks. However, even if such suggestions are possible to

implement, which is not always so in practice, the nature of construction is such that

changes to the work are to be expected no matter how much effort is expended on the

design. Changes are inevitable due to the high level of uncertainty conditions in which

construction projects operates (Laufer and Tucker, 1988; Laufer et al. 1992) and the

inability of designers to provide for all possible eventualities.

Thirdly, there is the approach that suggests quick resolution of emerging DD claims

situations before they develop into complex disputes. Notable example adopting this

is the Delay and Disruption Protocol developed recently by the UK’s Society of

Construction Law (SCL), a body comprising of highly experienced engineers,

architects, quantity surveyors and lawyers. Intended as a good practice guidance, the

protocol seeks to prevent ‘wait and see’ approach by promoting the resolution of

matters of extension of time and cost compensations on an on-going basis (SCL,

2002). Although, to a large extent, the protocol has had a good reception by the

industry, the main criticism of it has been on the potential difficulty of implementing

it in practice. Most of the protocol’s recommendations are based on proper

preparation and maintenance of programmes and other project records, which are

9
thought to be at variance with current industry practice (Birkby, 2002; McCaffrey,

2003). There have also been insignificant movement on the part of drafting bodies of

standard forms in adopting the recommendations of the protocols (Pickavance, 2005).

Although the above initiatives have the potential of reducing disputes, it appears they

have not had substantial impact considering the fact that DD claims still remain a

major source of disputes as noted before. A critical review of the literature suggested

that the reason for the continuing difficulty with DD claims resolution can be

attributed to a number of problems including: lack of uniformity in the application of

DD methodologies, lack of sufficient guidance from contracts and case law on DDA

and poor planning and programming practice.

1.3.1 Lack of uniformity in the application of DD methodologies

There are several acceptable DDA methodologies each requiring a unique set of

procedures and assumptions in their application. The differences in their approaches

coupled with the way individual analysts deal with some subjective aspects of the

analysis often leads to results of staggeringly different levels of accuracy for any

particular delay and/or disruption claims situation (Callahan et al., 1992; Alkass et al.,

1996; Bubshait and Cunningham, 1998; Stumpf, 2000; SCL, 2006). In addition, the

various methodologies are known by different terminologies amongst practitioners,

which can cause confusion to parties wanting to apply the same methodology. Sadly,

there is lack of uniformity among practitioners as to the names of the various

methodologies, what their application entails and the way to select an appropriate

methodology for use in a given DD claims. For now, analysts rely on their own

10
judgement (Williams, 2003), based on their accumulated experience, expertise and

intuition, which has been a recipe for disputes.

1.3.2 Lack of sufficient guidance from contracts and case law on DDA

Most forms of contract tend to limit their guidance on matters relating to DD claims to

broad recommendations, which are prone to subjective interpretations. For instance,

details of the principles governing the analysis of DD, such as methodological choice

and how the various methodologies are to be applied are often lacking (Yogeswaran et

al., 1998; Pickavance, 2005). This leads to much reliance on the judgement of the

practitioners involved and thus much on which to disagree on.

Legal precedents on DDA matters, which may help provide guidance on the approach

for the analysis is also unfortunately limited in the UK (Pickavance, 2005; Harris and

Scott, 2001). This may be due, in part, to the fact that in the past many construction

disputes in the UK have been resolved by arbitration and more frequently now by

adjudication under the Housing Grants, Construction and Regeneration Acts 1996.

The private nature of these disputes resolution forums has resulted in the publication

of few decisions on DD disputes. The chances for practitioners to learn from the

practical experience of others in their use of the methodologies have therefore been

limited.

1.3.3 Poor planning and programming practice

Lastly, a number of researchers and commentators have decried that most contractors’

programmes are poorly prepared and not properly updated (if updated at all) to reflect

changes that occurred during the course of the project (Nahapiet and Nahapiet, 1985;

11
Yogeswaran et al., 1998; Winter and Johnson, 2000). Such deficiencies in

programming practice make it difficult for analysts to measure accurately the effect of

various delay events on project completion, i.e. to perform delay analysis properly.

This is because the most recognised and acceptable DAMs are based on construction

programmes (typical of which is the CPM), which are required, inter alia, to reflect

accurately what actually happened on site as the project progresses (Wickwire et al.,

1989; Pickavance, 2005; Bramble and Callahan, 2000).

In the light of these problems, it is important to question whether or not the various

methodologies for performing DD analysis have been useful to practitioners.

Unfortunately, there is very little empirical research for answering this question (see

Bordoli and Baldwin (1998) and Harris and Scott (2001)). This research therefore

hypothesises that a major source of the difficulty with DD claims resolution is the use

of inappropriate methodologies for the analysis and such difficulty can be reduced by

the development of an appropriate framework for improving DD analysis.

1.4 Aims and Objectives

In recognition of the above background, this research set out to develop an

appropriate framework for improving existing DD analysis practice. The main aim of

this research is thus to critically examine the existing methodologies for analysing DD

claims with a view to identifying the problems associated with their current usage

towards developing a framework for improvement. In pursuit of this aim, the main

research objectives embraced the following:

to review the theoretical concepts and legal principles in DD claims resolutions;

12
 to identify and evaluate existing DD analysis methodologies and how they are

most appropriately used;

to investigate planning and programming issues affecting DD analysis;

to investigate the current practice in the use of these methodologies in the UK

construction industry;

to investigate the problems affecting the use of these methodologies in practice;

to develop a framework for improving DD analysis in the form of good practice

recommendations;

to develop and validate a model for selecting appropriate delay analysis

methodology (DAM);

to identify areas of further research and development needs of DD analysis.

1.5 Research Questions

The main research questions this research aims to address are:

What is the current practice on the use of DD analysis methodologies and

associated problems?

What is the appropriate framework for improving DD analysis in the UK?

1.6 Research Methodology

The issues to be dealt with in the research were very complex covering several

domains: law, human behaviour and cost and time analysis. Therefore a

methodological pluralism involving both qualitative and quantitative data was

utilised. The application and justification of such methodology is detailed in Chapter

2. An overview of the main steps followed is, however, given below.

13
A detailed literature search and review were first undertaken to provide theoretical

background and context of the research. This review covered the theoretical and legal

principles underlining DD analysis, planning and programming issues and evaluation

of existing DDA methodologies with regard to their applications, strengths and

weaknesses. Through the review, these methodologies and other issues affecting their

use were identified for further investigation. This investigation involved an initial

pilot survey followed by a nation-wide cross-sectional questionnaire survey of

construction and consulting organisations within UK on use of the methodologies.

The results of the survey and the review pointed to the need for further in-depth

investigation into the major problems affecting DD analysis practice. This

investigation was carried out using interviews. The data collected were analysed using

a number statistical techniques including descriptive statistics, relative index analysis,

Correlation analysis, Factor analysis, Kendall’s Concordance and Chi-square tests.

Finally, the findings were used to draw up recommendations as to best practice and

develop a DAM selection model, which was then validated by means of experts’

views using postal surveys. A summary of these results are as follows.

1.7 Summary of Findings, Conclusions and Recommendations

1.7.1 Research findings and Conclusions

A thorough review of the relevant literature on DD identified a number of principles

underlining DD claims analysis, including: the requirements for the preparation or

assessing of such claims, the resolution of concurrent delays and the ownership of

float. The CPM of programming was identified as an essential requirement for

performing DD analysis. Analyses based on this technique are, however, required to

14
be carried out in a clear, balanced and objective manner, in addition to backing them

with good factual evidence.

The review also identified the existing methodologies for analysing DD and issues of

planning and programming practice that tend to affect their usage. Two groups of

methodologies were reviewed, one for analysing delays (DAMs, mostly based on

CPM) and the other for analysing disruptions (DSAMs). These methodologies are

known by different terminologies among practitioners. Each has its own strengths and

weaknesses, although some are more rigorous than others. Furthermore, there is no

common agreement among researchers and practitioners as to which is more reliable

or acceptable for use. The general view has been that no single methodology is

universally suitable for all claims situations and that the best methodology for any

situation should be selected based on a number of criteria.

In determining what framework might be useful for improving DD analysis, an area

that was investigated was the use of existing DD analysis methodologies in practice

and associated problems. The primary data from this investigation came from 63

contractors and 67 consultants who took part in an industry-wide questionnaire

survey, with 15 of the contractors further participating in a subsequent interview. The

majority of the respondents were in positions of high levels of responsibility in large

organisations and had been dealing with DD claims for more than 16 years. They

were therefore ideally suited to participate and respond to the issues investigated in

this research. The main findings from the survey are as follows:

15
1. The majority of the respondents felt that DD claims are not often resolved

contemporaneously in the course of project as is commonly recommended.

They are rather resolved toward the end of the project or after and are also often

attended by considerable difficulties leading to frequent disputes. These

findings further justified the need for undertaking this research

2. DD analysis is a multidisciplinary task requiring the input of many experts from

construction and consulting organisations. Quantity surveyors have the greatest

involvement in all these organisations. This conflicts with provisions in most

forms of contract as to the leading role of the Architect/Engineer in contractors’

claims assessments. This suggests the need for reviewing QSs functions towards

better management of this role and their training needs.

3. The most frequent reasons for disputes over DD claims are: failure to establish

causal link, followed by inadequate supporting documentation on quantum and

then insufficient breakdown of claims amount. This suggests that the

methodologies for proving causation and good records are important

considerations in research seeking to avoid or reduce claims disputes.

4. DD analysis methodologies that are reported in literature to have major

weaknesses were the most well-known and widely used methodologies. Lack of

adequate project information, poorly updated programmes and baseline

programme not in CPM format were reported as factors posing obstacles to the

use of these methodologies, particularly the more accurate and reliable ones.

16
Further investigation using interviews was undertaken to understand the underlying

causes of the problems affecting DD analysis. The results disclosed four main causes.

First, contractors often prepare their construction programmes in linked bar chart

format, which have logic difficulties when used for projects with complex sequence of

activities. Such programmes do not facilitate the use of more accurate DAMs as they

are highly based on CPM. Secondly, most contractors produce their programmes

using planning software packages that do not possess adequate functionalities for

performing forensic analysis of project delays. Thirdly, programmes produced are

usually not resource-loaded and levelled, which affects their reliability as a source of

information for undertaking DD analysis. Finally, contractors do not keep records of

crew productivity for major activities, which makes it virtually impossible to analyse

disruption claims using most reliable methodologies such as the measured mile

technique.

1.7.2 Best Practice recommendations and DAM selection model

The above findings suggest contractors and consultants often resort to DD analysis

methodologies that are incapable of producing results of high accuracy or reasonable

precision/certainty and this has been a major source of disputes on DD claims. In

seeking to address this problem, best practice recommendations that will promote

better planning, programming and record keeping practice and facilitate the use of

more reliable methodologies were made as follows.

1. Employers should make it a contractual requirement for contractors to provide a

fully resource loaded and levelled baseline programme in CPM format, except

for projects which are less complex. This should be produced using industry

17
 standard planning software and submitted to the employer or its representative

for review and acceptance. The programme should be accompanied by a method

statement on which it was based.

2. The contract should provide for joint review of the programme by the parties for

purposes of checking its reliability and modifying it if necessary or accept it as

is. This review should examine the programme for flaws and errors in respect of

the project scope, activity details, durations and relationships. The review

should also serve as a means of reaching agreement on some aspects of the

programme and its updating. Aspects that need to be agreed on include the

planning software used, project calendar, unit of planning, preferential logics

used, major assumptions made in estimating activities durations and any

contingencies factored into the programme for managing risk. Other issues the

need consideration are the mode and frequency of updating, float ownership,

records to be kept and their contents and frequency of site progress reporting.

3. The final accepted programme and its updates should be submitted

electronically to the employer or his representative in addition to hard copy

versions. Each update should be accompanied by detailed progress report

describing any changes in planned scope of project activities, their start and

finish dates, logic and durations, which are inconsistent with the previous

progress report.

18
 4. Contractors should also be required to keep adequate documentation including

records on daily site progress, original and actual job cost for each activities and

records of crew productivity for major activities.

On the basis of the literature review and the findings, a particular problem area was

also isolated for further consideration, namely: claim parties usually adopt different

methodologies for analysing delays which give rise to conflicting results and

disagreement. To redress this, the research has developed and validated a model for

selecting the appropriate DAM, which can aid practitioners to arrive at a balance

rather than partisan results.

The model is based on scoring competing DAMs on 18 selection criteria identified as

relevant from the review of the literature and the questionnaire survey. The survey

also established the relative important values of these criteria, which were then

converted into their respective weights for use in the model. The application of the

model involves first rating each DAM successively against each criterion in reflection

of the extent to which each method is suitable for use given the criterion under

consideration. The ratings from all the criteria are then multiplied by their respective

weightings to obtain the suitability scores of the various methodologies. The total

suitability score for each methodology is then computed by summing up all the

suitability scores from the various criteria. The methodology with the highest total

suitability score is to be selected as the most appropriate methodology for the delay

analysis.

19
To ensure that the model is valid for use in practice it was subjected to validation.

This involved an application of the model to a hypothetical case study followed by its

review by experts via a questionnaire survey. The majority of the experts responded in

favour of the model as to its significance to the industry, adequacy, completeness,

comprehensibility and cost effectiveness. The main objection raised concerned a

potential difficulty of parties being able to reach agreement on the ratings of the

methods due to the fact that different views are held by practitioners on their

attributes.

Finally, this research has identified a number of areas for further research. These

include the need to: establish through research, the generally acceptable attributes and

implementation procedures of the most common DAMs; and repeat the surveys into

DAM selection factors, at periodic intervals, for purposes of updating the model to

ensure its applicability over time.

1.8 Main Achievements and Contribution to Knowledge

In recent times, DD claims in construction and engineering projects are some of the

most difficult and controversial disputes to resolve. Despite changing attitudes and

modern procurement methods, difficulties in fair resolution of such claims still persist.

In an attempt to redress this, this research carried out an investigation into the use of

DDA methodologies and associated problems. This has culminated in the

development of best practice recommendations which can assist claim parties to

resolve DD matters with less difficulty, thereby avoiding unnecessary disputes and

cost. The outcomes of the research offer many potential benefits to practitioners and

researchers.

20
A summary of the major research achievements and contributions to knowledge

arising from this research are as follows.

1. A review of existing DDA methodologies in use as reported in the literature.

This provides up-to-date information on this subject matter, which would be

very useful to researchers and practitioners investigating in this area.

2. The current status of DD analysis methodologies usage amongst UK

construction organisation has been established based on questionnaire survey.

Areas addressed by the survey included the level of use, acceptance and

evaluation of factors influencing the selection of DAM. The findings of this

investigation can be used as checklists against which common understanding

between employers and contractors on DD claims matters can be promoted to

enhance the chances of speedy and amicable settlement. This will particularly

benefit practitioners in the UK given that the case law on these matters is

limited.

3. An innovative framework for improving DD analysis practice has been

developed; comprising of good practice recommendations and a model for

selecting appropriate DAM. The model is intended to serve as a tool for

assisting analysts in justifying their choice of DAM to their clients and/or the

trier-of-fact when the contract is silent on the method to use. Claim parties can

also rely on it if they have to come to an agreement on which DAM should be

used for performing the claims analysis.

21
The findings of this research have been disseminated to industry practitioners and

academic peers. Three peer-reviewed papers have been published and presented in

various conferences: Braimah et al. (2006a), Braimah et al. (2006b) and Braimah et

al. (2007). A fourth conference paper has been accepted for presentation in this year’s

COBRA conference (Braimah and Ndekugri, 2008). Two referred journal papers have

also been accepted for publication in the Journal of International Project

Management (Braimah and Ndekugri, 2007) and the ASCE Journal of Construction

Engineering and Management (Ndekugri, et al., 2008). Two other journal papers are

currently in the pipeline (one in the review stage).

1.9 Structure of the Thesis

The thesis is organised in chapters, briefly described below. Figure 1.1 shows the

major process of the research and how it links with these chapters.

Chapter One - General Introduction: This presents a general overview of the thesis

comprising of the research background, the research aims and objectives, the

methodology adopted, the main achievements and contribution to knowledge. It also

gives a general guide to the contents of the thesis.

Chapter Two - Research Methodology: It explains the methodology adopted in

carrying out the research, the reasons for adopting it and how it facilitated the

achievement of the research objectives. It also sets out the survey procedure, selection

of survey sample, procedures used in analysing data collected and its justification.

22
Chapter Three - Theoretical concepts and legal principles in DD claims: This chapter

reviews literature and case laws on DD claims as basis for identifying the accepted

approaches required in the analysis of DD claims.

Chapter Four –Planning and Programming issues: This chapter reviews issues of

planning and programming that affects DD analysis. Deficiencies in existing practice

as reported in the literature and their possible causes were identified. This enabled the

identification of important areas of programming for further empirical investigation.

Chapter Five - Existing DD analysis methodologies: This chapter identifies and

evaluates the various DD methodologies mentioned in the literature. Methodologies

purposely for analysing delays and those for disruptions, together with factors

affecting their use are identified and reviewed critically.

Chapter Six - Analysis and Discussion of Survey Results: This chapter reports on the

findings of the questionnaire survey undertaken to establish the current state of DD

analysis practice in the UK. This provided basis for the identification of associated

major problems that were further investigated in-depth using interviews and also for

the development of an appropriate framework for improvement.

Chapter Seven- Programming issues affecting DD analysis: This chapter presents the

results of interviews carried out to clarify and fully understand the main problematic

issues affecting DD analysis.

23
Chapter Eight – A model for selecting the appropriate DAM: This chapter describe

the development of a model designed to assist practitioners in their decision-making

in selecting the appropriate DAM to use in a given claims situation.

Chapter Nine - Validation of the model. This chapter reports on the evaluation of the

developed model, involving the application of the model to a hypothetical case study

and its validation through experts review in a questionnaire survey.

Chapter Ten - Conclusions and Recommendations: The conclusions derived from the

research and recommendations for promoting good practice are presented in this

chapter. Also included are suggested recommendations for further research.

24
 Chapter 1- General Introduction
Initial literature review providing the
research background, from which the
aims and objectives of the research are
formulated

Chapter 2- Research Methodology

Explains the methodology adopted in
carrying out the research and the rationale
behind

Detailed Literature Review

Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5
Reviews the theoretical and legal Reviews planning and Reviews the existing DD
principles underling DD claims programming issues analysis methodologies
analysis

Chapter 6
Questionnaire survey on use of DD
analysis methodologies and analysis and
discussion of the results

Chapter 8
Development of model for
selecting appropriate delay
Chapter 7 analysis methodology
Conducting Interviews and analysis and
discussion of the results

Chapter 9
Validation of the developed model

Chapter 10 - Conclusion and Recommendations

· Best practice recommendations for
improving DD analysis practice
· Recommendations for future research

Figure 1.1 Flow chart showing the process of the research

25
 CHAPTER TWO

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

2.1 Introduction

This chapter addresses the research methodology adopted for capturing the data

needed to achieve the aim and objectives of the research. It is organised in sections

covering: (i) the research design and methods adopted; (ii) scope of the review of

literature; (iii) sampling and administration of the postal survey; (iv) method used in

analysing the data; (v) design and administration of interviews; (vi) best practice

recommendations and a model for selecting appropriate DAM; and (vii) validation of

the model.

2.2 Research Design and Methods

The nature of a research topic, its aims and objectives and the resources available

largely determine its design (Gill and Johnson, 2002; Creswell, 2003). These criteria

largely informed the research methodology developed for carrying out this research.

To begin with, the main research objectives were analysed to identify the basic

questions that need to be addressed. The objectives posed a number of questions

including:

to what extent are DD claims resolved during the course of a project?

to what extent are such claims transformed into disputes?

what are the reasons for unsatisfactory resolution of DD claims?

26
 which types of staff in construction organisations provide inputs into DD

claims preparations or assessment?

to what extent is industry aware of the methodologies for resolving DD

claims?

to what extent are the methodologies used in practice?

what are the success rates of these methodologies in terms of settlement of

claims without disputes that require resolution by a third party?

what are the factors considered in the selection of appropriate methodology for

delay claims analysis?

what are the obstacles to the use of the methodologies in practice?

why are there problems in their use in practice?

how could current DD analysis practice be improved?

As a result of the multiplicity of the research questions and diversity in the types and

sources of data required for answering these questions, it became apparent very early

in the study that the data would be both qualitative and quantitative in nature.

Superimposed on these characteristics of the research was the fact that the study

objectives centered on the social aspects of DDA on which there is very little

literature other than individual experiences captured in expert commentaries in

journals and a handful of textbooks. These characteristics of the study belonged to

those determined by Tashakorri and Teddlie (1998) and Creswell (2003) as requiring

adoption of mixed methods research design approach. This involved a critical review

of the literature and primary data collection at two different stages consecutively.

Various research strategies such as experiments, survey, interviews, archival analysis

and case studies were carefully considered first in deciding upon the most appropriate

27
method for collecting the data. Archival analysis and case studies were discounted as

unsuitable given the sensitive and confidential nature of the subject matter of the

research. Their application require access to materials such as records of actual DD

claims and disputes materials, which is considered unlikely that most organisations

will be willing to provide. Experiments in social sciences are field-based requiring

extensive time and cost to conduct (De Vaus, 2002; Creswell, 2003) than this research

could afford. This approach was thus also discounted, leaving surveys and interviews

as the only appropriate options to rely upon.

A quantitative research strategy involving the use of a survey was adopted in the first

stage for answering most of the ‘what’ questions to explore the current DD analysis

practice. This was followed by an in-depth qualitative investigation of issues informed

by the survey in answering most of the ‘how’ and ‘why’ questions. The survey also

helped in the identification of appropriate interviewees. The following further

examines the choice of survey and the data collection methods most appropriate to use

in the light of the research problem for the first stage.

A major factor that influenced the choice of the survey strategy was the large and

diverse nature of the research population, as delay claims are prevalent in different

forms and in many different types of organisations (employers, contractors, sub-

contractors and designers) across the UK. The research population is therefore very

large and diverse. According to Rea and Parker (1997), there is no better method of

research than a survey for collecting information about large populations. Surveys are

also viewed as the most appropriate method of studying participants’ behaviour and

job perceptions (Mintzberg, 1973; Rea and Parker, 1997). Moreover, survey research

28
strategy makes it possible to generalize the results to the research population while

enabling comparisons between target groups to be made (Burns, 2000). In this study,

differences in experiences and attitudes within and across contractors, owners and

their Architects/Engineers were of particular interest.

There are two main types of surveys: cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. In a

cross-sectional survey, data is collected on relevant variables at the same time or

within a relatively short space of time. Longitudinal surveys on the other hand involve

collecting data over long periods of time by taking measurements of the variables over

two or more distinct periods. This type of survey was eliminated as inappropriate in

the light of the time and resource constraints within which the research had to be

completed, leaving cross-sectional survey as the most appropriate.

The methods for obtaining survey data are (Rea and Parker, 1997; Burns, 2000;

Creswell, 2003): (1) sending a questionnaire out by post, fax or internet for the

respondents to self-administer; (2) using an interviewer to administer the

questionnaire either by face to face or telephone interviews. The second option was

eliminated as unsuitable on account of fragmentation of functional roles involved in

DDA and geographical dispersion of the participants. Considering the first option, fax

and internet were discarded on account of their poor response rate (Rea and Parker,

1997; Burns, 2000) leaving postal questionnaire survey as the most appropriate.

2.3 Literature Review

The importance of carrying out a review of literature has been emphasized by authors

such as Gall et al. (1996) and Fellows and Liu (2003) as follows:

29
 compare the research idea to existing knowledge in the chosen field;

to provide insight to whether the research is viable;

to provide insight to whether the research addresses a topical issue and will

also not lead to repetition;

to help redefine the research topic to reflect current trends in the chosen

field;

to help develop an appropriate methodology for undertaken the research;

identify and /or suggest routes with regard to advancing knowledge;

help generate other ideas;

to assist in further refinement of the research questions and objectives.

Therefore the first stage of the research methodology concerned a comprehensive

review of literature relating to DD analysis. The objective of the review was to

provide the background and context upon which the research was to be established.

The review covered a wide range of issues including: (i) the theoretical and legal

principles underpinning DD claims resolutions (reported in Chapter 3); (ii) planning

and programming issues affecting DDA (Chapter 4); and (iii) existing methodologies

for analysing DD claims (Chapter 5). The findings of the literature review formed the

basis of the subsequent field surveys.

2.4 Design of the survey questionnaire

As mentioned in section 2.2, the questionnaire survey purports to answer the ‘what’

and ‘which’ questions in exploring the current use of DD analysis methodologies in

the UK. The survey was designed carefully to ensure that it elicits useful responses to

these questions and also overcome the limitations of postal questionnaire surveys.

30
This was achieved by following recommended best practice advocated in the literature

by, for example, Moser and Kaltron (1986), Oppenheim (1992), De Vaus (2002) and

Baker (2003). Such practice includes making sure the questionnaire is easy to read

and understand, as short as possible and capable of completing within a matter of

minutes, and organised to flow smoothly without any hidden bias. Also, the wording

of the questions was carefully considered to prevent as far as possible any confusion

or ambiguity.

In view of the nature of feedbacks being solicited, it was resolved that the

questionnaire be designed to contain both open-ended and closed-ended questions.

Each of these formats has distinct advantages and disadvantage so combining them

was essential in reducing or eliminating the disadvantages of each whilst gaining their

advantages. The questionnaire therefore consisted of multiple choice questions

requiring ticked-box responses and open–ended questions. Provisions were also made

for respondents to contribute in free text forms any further comments or views they

have in respect of each questions.

According to Weisberg et al. (1996), questionnaire construction is really an art, much

of which is learnt through practice and that it is so difficult that researchers rarely use

a questionnaire in a survey without first pretesting it. Therefore, after series of reviews

of the draft questionnaire, a decision was made to pilot the questionnaire before

developing the final versions. In a pilot survey of acknowledged DD analysis experts

in the UK and the US, twenty practitioners, were asked to comment on the

questionnaire with regards to its clarity and the practicality of its completion by

respondents. The response and comments received from eight of them were reviewed

31
and a number of revisions involving deleting, adding or rewriting questions made to

the questionnaire for developing the final version of the questionnaire. A copy of the

final version of the questionnaire is indicated in Appendix A.

2.5 Sampling

The absence of a specific sampling frame of construction organisations with

experience of DD claims dictated use of non-probability sampling techniques. The

Kompass Register (Kompass 2006), NCE Consultants’ file (NCE, 2006), and 2002

RICS Directory (RICS, 2002), which together lists in excess of 5000 providers of

products and services in industry, was the starting point of sampling. A list of 2000

construction organisations of different sizes was first compiled from these sources.

The list was then divided into the six geographical regions of the UK (North East,

North West, South East, South West, Midlands and Scotland). Using a combination of

quota and purposive sampling as described typically by Patton (1990) and Barnet

(1991), 600 construction organisations (300 contractors and 300 consultants) were

finally selected based on a need to ensure that the outcomes are nationally applicable

and cover the experiences and attitudes of contractors as well as consultants,

especially engineers and architects in their roles as contract administrators.

2.6 Data Collection

The questionnaires were addressed to the managing directors of the selected firms

with an accompanying cover letter, explaining the purpose of the survey and asking

that senior staff members with major involvement in claims preparation or assessment

be encouraged to complete it. A sample of the cover letter is indicated in Appendix A.

32
The questionnaire was designed to produce answers to a number of questions

pertinent to the research objectives outlined in section 2.2. This include the rating of

existing DD analysis methodologies on a 5-point Likert scale in respect of: the extent

of awareness, use and perceptions on reliability of these methodologies; the level of

importance of a number of factors that influence the selection of DAMs; and the

frequency by which a number of factors have been obstacles to the use of these

methodologies in practice. This type of rating scale is recognised as the most

appropriate for obtaining information about respondents’ attitudes and perceptions or

analysing particular attributes, as compared to asking a long list of individual

questions (Rea and Parker, 1997; Baker, 2003).

Although the variables to be rated were identified from a thorough review on the body

of literature on DD and subsequently a pilot survey, respondents were also invited to

add any other methodologies or factors that they consider were important but not

included in the questionnaire.

Considering the numerous terminologies by which existing DAMs are known by

practitioners, there was a considerable risk that responses concerning the methods

may be incorrectly answered. This problem was addressed by including, as an

appendix to the questionnaire, a glossary of DAMs for the respondents’ reference.

2.7 Data Analysis

The data obtained from the survey were ordinal in nature as most of the responses

were ratings measured on the Likert scale. Such data cannot be treated using

parametric statistics methods unless precarious and, perhaps, unrealistic assumptions

33
are made about the underlying distributions (Siegel and Castellan Jr., 1988, p.35). It

was therefore found appropriate to analyze it using non-parametric statistics involving

descriptive statistics analysis, relative index analysis, Kendall’s Concordance,

Spearman Rank Order Correlation test, Chi-square tests and Factor analysis. In all

these, the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and Microsoft Excel for

Windows application software package were employed.

2.7.1 Descriptive statistics analysis

This involved the use of frequencies, percentages and means for presenting

description finding of the survey. These techniques were employed for analysing data

related to the characteristics of the respondents, their organisations, and open ended

questions/comments. They were also used for the initial analysis of rating score data

of the various research variables. Graphical techniques utilised for presenting the

results from these analyses include pie chart, bar chart and tables.

2.7.2 Relative index analysis

This technique was utilised to further analyse responses related to ratings of the

research variables. The technique has been used extensively in similar types of

surveys and is recognised as an excellent approach for aggregating the scores of the

variables rated on an ordinal scale by respondents (Holt, 1997).

The SPSS was first used to determine the valid percentage ratings (frequencies) of the

variables rated, which were then feed into Equation (1) to calculate the variables’

respective rank indices (RIs).

34
 ⎡ i =5 ⎤ 100%
RI = ⎢∑ wi f i ⎥ × --------------------------------------------------------- (1)
⎣ i =1 ⎦ n

where fi is the frequency of response; wi is the weight for each rating (given by rating

in the measurement scale divided by number of points in it, which is 5 in this case);

and n is the total number of responses. The ranking index is labelled differently

depending upon the context, e.g., “involvement index”, “awareness index”, “success

index”, and “challenge index”.

2.7.3 Kendall Coefficient of Concordance and Chi-square tests

To determine the degree of agreement among the respondents in their rankings,

Kendall’s coefficient of concordance (W) was used. This coefficient provides a

measure of agreement between respondents within a survey on a scale of zero to one,

with ‘0’ indicating no agreement and ‘1’ indicating perfect agreement or concordance.

Using the rankings by each respondent, W was computed using Equation (2) below

(Siegel and Castellan Jr., 1988, p. 265).

12∑ Ri2 − 3k 2 N ( N + 1) 2
W = --------------------------------------------------(2),
k 2 N ( N 2 − 1) − k ∑ T j

where ∑R i
2
is the sum of the squared sums of ranks for each of the N objects being

ranked; k is the number of sets of rankings i.e. the number of respondents; and Tj is

the correction factor required for the jth set of ranks for tied observations given by

gj
( )
T j = ∑ ti3 − ti , where ti is the number of tied ranks in the ith grouping of ties, and gj
i =1

is the number of groups of ties in the jth set of ranks.

35
To verify that the degree of agreement did not occur by chance, the significance of W

was tested, the null hypothesis being perfect disagreement. The Chi-square ( )

approximation of the sampling distribution given by Equation (3) with (N-1) degrees

of freedom is used for testing this hypothesis at a given level, for N>7 (Siegel and

Castellan Jr. 1988, p. 269). Calculated value greater than its counterpart table value

implies that the W was significant at the given level of significance and as such the

null hypothesis is not supported and thus has to be rejected.

χ 2 = k (N − 1)W ----------------------------------------------------- (3)

2.7.4 Spearman Rank Order Correlation test

Further analysis was performed to identify any relationship between “awareness” and

“use” for each of the DD analysis methodologies on the one hand, and the “success”

and “challenge” rate associated with claims analysed by the methodologies on the

other. This correlation was performed using Spearman Rank order Correlation test,

with the help of SPSS.

2.7.5 Factor analysis

In the absence of any standard lists of DAM selection factors, there was a

considerable risk of the analysis of the responses yielding diverse results. Thus, in

establishing the list of factors, it was considered important to ensure that the factors

are of adequate relevance and were also independent. The response was therefore

further analysed by grouping them using factor analysis.

36
The appropriateness of employing factor analysis was first confirmed by a number of

tests including Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO), measure of sampling adequacy and

Bartlett test of sphericity (see Appendix B for test results). Principal component

analysis was then employed to extract six group factors with eigenvalues greater than

1, suppressing all other factors with eigenvalues less than 1 based on Kaiser’s

criterion (Kim and Mueller, 1994; Field, 2000, p.437). To clarify the factor pattern so

as to ensure that each variable loads high on one group factor and very minimal on all

other group factors, the variables were ‘rotated’ using varimax orthogonal rotation

method.

2.8 Design of Interviews

The analysis of the results of the questionnaire survey revealed several issues, mostly

related to programming matters, which pointed to the need for their further in-depth

investigation to fully understand the current problems associated with DD analysis.

This investigation was aimed at answering the ‘how’ and ‘why’ questions of the

research, which cannot be satisfactorily answered through postal surveys; for

example, why are the more reliable methodologies not popular?, how can DD analysis

practice be improved?, According to Yin (1994), such questions require the adoption

of qualitative research inquiry approach involving the use of in-depth interviews,

experiments, history and case study for collecting the required information. These

methods provide a deeper comprehension of the phenomenon being investigated as

they require the investigator spending considerable length of time gathering

information in the natural setting. It became clear that experiments, history and case

study were not favourable for this research given the confidential nature of the issues

being investigated in claims and difficulty of finding organisations willing to

37
cooperate in this regard. This leaves interviews as the most favourable option to use.

Although there are various methods for administering interviews, the most pervasive

one in qualitative studies is personal or face-face interviews as it allows observations

to be made and also enables the researcher to interact with the natural setting

(Creswell, 1994; 2003).

The format of questions asked in interviews can be classified in four ways (Patton,

1990; Bogdan, and Biklen, 1992): totally structured; structured questions with open

responses (semi-structured); open questions with structured answers; and totally

unstructured. The nature and scope of the issues to be investigated by the interviews

suggested the second format, i.e. structured open-ended, as the most appropriate

option for designing the interview questionnaire. This format allows interviewees to

give the responses they thought were right thereby minimising bias that is often

associated with closed–ended interviews. It also makes it possible for pursuing and

probing for relevant information to help clarify some of the responses in some

instances (Patton, 1990; Creswell, 2007).

The interviewees were required to provide information on specific questions related to

the development of construction programmes and their maintenance, in order to well

appreciate the problems affecting DD analysis. The questionnaire for this was

designed following recommended approaches highlighted by authors such as Bogdan

and Biklen (1992), Rossman and Rallis (1998) and Creswell (2007), to ensure that the

questions are appropriate and well presented. The questionnaire comprised of two

main sections: preconstruction stage programming and construction stage

programming approach (a copy of the questionnaire is shown in Appendix C).

38
The potential interviewees were identified from the list of respondents who

participated to the initial survey. This was achieved by asking them in the survey to

indicate their willingness to grant further interviews to solicit their opinions on certain

programming matters informed by the survey. Those who responded positively to this

request were individuals in key positions within construction firms with considerable

experience in DD analysis and programming of construction works. Their prior

involvement in the survey also makes them highly suitable for the interview as they

were aware of the framework of this research.

2.9 Interview data collection

Following the design of the questionnaire, the interviewees were contacted via

telephone to arrange for appropriate interview date, time and place. Closer to the

interviews, copies of the interview questionnaires were posted to the interviewees

with an accompanying cover letter, reminding them of the time and date for the

interview.

For each interview, interviewees were first briefed on the purpose of the interview and

its expected duration. They were also assured that information received will be kept

strictly confidential and their consent further sought on note taking by writing and

tape recording. In the course of the interviews, a number of steps were taken, to

ensure its proper conduct and avoid any possible biases from creeping in, including

(Patton, 1990): (i) asking one question at a time; (ii) remaining neutral as far possible

by trying not to show strong emotional reactions to responses, for instance; and (iii)

taking control of the interview by sticking closely to questions of interest.

39
Generally, each interview took between 1-2 hours to complete, where information was

recorded by both note taking and tape recording. This recording was important for the

purpose of making future reference to the data in the same detail as was recorded in

order to fully appreciate everything that was discussed. The data obtained was later

transcribed and analysed (refer to Chapter 7 for results).

2.10 Best practice recommendations

Information gathered from the literature review, the survey and the subsequent

interviews was used to draw deductions and conclusions in respect of the research

objectives. A number of best practice recommendations were then proposed as a

framework for improving DD analysis practice (see Chapter 10).

2.11 A model for selecting appropriate DAM

In addition to the recommendations, a particular problem area was isolated for further

consideration, namely: The decision to select any of the myriad methodologies

available for analysing delays in any claims situation requires careful consideration

of a number of criteria but there is no decision aids available for analysts to rely on

to ensure a more objective selection process. To redress this, a model for selecting an

appropriate methodology for analysing delay claims was developed. This model is

mainly based on scoring competing DAMs on 18 selection criteria identified as

relevant from the literature review and the questionnaire survey. Employing a

multiattribute technique, an aggregate score for each of the methodology is computed

reflecting their respective suitability to use for the analysis of the claims at hand.

Detailed description of the model is reported in Chapter 8. Model validation is

essential part of model development process if models are to be accepted and used to

40
support decision making (Macal, 2005). The model was therefore validated via

experts’ review using survey. The rationale for adopting this validation technique, the

process involved and the results obtained are reported in Chapter 9.

2.12 Summary

This chapter has presented an outline of the research methodology adopted for

carrying out this research. A combination of qualitative and quantitative research

methods was utilised. This involved first, a comprehensive literature review followed

by a pilot survey for fine-tuning the questionnaires for a subsequent nation-wide

survey of construction and consulting organisations to explore the current use of

existing DD analysis methodologies and associated problems. These problems were

then investigated in much depth using semi-structured interviews with some of the

respondents who participated in the initial survey. The data collected was analysed,

with the aid of SPSS and Excel, using a variety of statistical methods including

descriptive statistics, relative index analysis, Kendall’s Concordance, Chi-square test,

Spearman Rank Order Correlation test and Factor analysis.

Information gathered from literature review, the survey and subsequent interviews

was used to: draw deductions and conclusions in respect of the research objectives;

propose a number of good practice recommendations for improving DD analysis; and

developed a model for selecting appropriate DAM. This model was validated via

experts’ review through survey.

41
 CHAPTER THREE

3 THEORETICAL CONCEPTS AND LEGAL PRINCIPLES GOVERNING

DD CLAIMS RESOLUTIONS

3.1 Introduction

The importance of time to construction contracting parties as highlighted in Chapter

One has made it necessary for employers to specify in their contracts the time for

performance, often in terms of either a final date or an overall period for completion.

However, a number of factors including the performance of the parties affect the

actual project duration causing the project to suffer time and/or cost overruns. To

recover such losses, claims often arise in several ways, the commonest being claims

by contractors against employers for extensions of time and/or for loss and expense.

The resolution of such claims involves claimants/defendants identifying and

quantifying the effects of one or more occurrence that caused (Pickavance, 2005):

delay to progress that caused the delay to one or more completion dates;

prolongation of contractor’s and/or subcontractor’s time-related costs;

delay to progress that caused loss and/or expense to be suffered by contractors

or subcontractors; and

reduction in productivity (or disruption) that caused loss and/or expense to be

suffered by contractors and/or subcontractors;

Employers and contractors often resort to various methodologies in undertaking this

task as highlighted in Section 1.2. There are two main categories of such

methodologies referred-to in this thesis as: “Delay Analysis Methodology” (DAM)

and “Disruption Analysis Methodology” (DSAM). For proper understanding of the

42
use of these methodologies, this chapter provides an overview of the accepted legal

and theoretical concepts that influences DD claims resolution. The review was based

on general research papers on DD analysis and UK cases, although some concepts

based on US cases were considered for reference purposes. The relevant issues

reviewed include:

types of delays;

the resolution of concurrent delays;

float ownership;

resolving delays when programme shows early completion;

delays experienced after completion date; and

the requirements for the production or assessment of DD claims.

The findings of this review and those of the next two chapters formed the basis of the

subsequent field surveys and the proposed recommendations for promoting good

practice.

3.2 Types of delay

The term “delay” in construction contracts has no precise technical meaning. It can be

used in different sense to mean different conditions in project execution (see for

example, Pickavance, 2005, p. 8). However, the term is often used in its basic sense to

mean any occurrences or events that extend the duration or delay the start or finish of

any of the activities of a project. Delays therefore increase the time and cost allocated

for executing the various project activities, resulting in project cost overruns and late

completions. The latter effect will only occur when the delay lies on the critical path

of the programme.

43
Delayed completion of projects is generally caused by the actions or inactions of the

project parties including the employer, contractor, subcontractors, project designers/

supervisors and neither of these parties (e.g. acts of God). Based on these sources and

the contractual risk allocation for delay-causing events, three main categories of

delays are generally recognised: excusable, nonexcusable and compensable delays.

Excusable delays are those against which the contractor is entitled to extension of

time under the terms of the contract. The contractor is said to be ‘excused’ liability for

liquidated damages for the period of the extension which otherwise would have been

payable to the employer. An excusable delay is therefore one for which the employer

is generally responsible although some excusable delays are outside the control of

employers, e.g. exceptionally adverse weather conditions. Compensability concerns

the issue of whether the contractor is entitled to extra payment on account of the

delay. Thus, a compensable delay is one for which the contractor is entitled to such

payment. There is generally no such entitlement for delay caused by events over

which the contractor exercises some control, e.g., productivity of its labour or

equipment.

Whether a delay is excusable or compensable is a matter of the allocation of risk

between the contractor and the employer, as defined in the contract based on a number

of principles (Smith, 1995). Generally, the risks of project delays from events over

which the employer has control or for which he is responsible are usually allocated to

the employer. For such delays, the contractor is entitled to time extensions and

recovery of extra cost consequential upon the delay; and are often referred to as

“excusable compensable” (EC) delays. Examples include ordering variations and

44
additional work and late supply of necessary information to the contractor. The risk of

delays from events over which neither party has control, e.g. acts of God and strikes,

are usually shared. The contractor is usually entitled to extension of time but not

recovery of additional payment. Thus, the employer forfeits entitlement to recover

delay damages from the contractor. This type of delay is referred to as “excusable

non-compensable” (EN) delay.

The contractor usually assumes the risks of costs and consequences of delay events

which are within its control e.g. shortage of staff or equipment, late mobilisation, etc.

This type of delay is referred to as “nonexcusable-noncompensable” (NN) delay,

which could be compensated to the employer in the form of liquidated or actual

damages paid by the contractor for late completion.

It is important to note that the terms compensable, excusable and non excusable are

from the perspective of the contractor. Thus a delay that is compensable is

compensable to the contractor but non-excusable to the employer. On the other hand,

a delay deemed non-excusable non compensable is compensable to the employer

because it results in levying of liquidated damages.

Delays are also distinguished between “critical” and “non-critical” delays. The former

are those that cause delay to project completion date whilst the latter affect progress

but not overall completion. Most contracts require that in order for delay to warrant

an extension of contract time, it must affect the completion of the project (i.e. the

delay must be critical). This provides the basis for the high importance attached to the

use of critical path method (CPM) of scheduling for proving or disproving time-

45
related claims such as extension of time and prolongation cost (Wickwire et al. 1989;

Kallo 1996b; Bramble and Callahan, 2000).

The terms “independent delays”, “serial delays” and “concurrent delays” are also used

to describe delays based on the interrelation of the above delay types with respect to

their duration and time of occurrence. Independent delays are delays that occur in

isolation or without other consecutive or simultaneous delays while serial delays

occur in sequence consecutively and not overlapping with each other on a particular

network path. On the other hand, two or more delays in which their time of

occurrence or effects overlaps are often termed “concurrent delays”. As a summary,

Figure 3.1 classifies the different types of delays based on their various attributes.

Delay
classification

Critical Non critical

Excusability/ Timing & duration

Responsibility
compensability of delay

Neither Excusable non Excusable Non excusable Concurrency Non concurrency

Contractor Employer
party compensable compensable non compensable
Serial
delays
Extension of
Extension of Liquidated True Concurrrent
time +
time only damages concurrrent effect of Independent
prolongation
cost delays delays delays

Figure 3.1 Delay Classifications

46
Independent and serial delays are relatively easy to resolve compared to concurrent

delays. The concept of concurrent delays has thus been the subject of much

discussions and debate among researchers and practitioners. It therefore deserves

further review.

3.2.1 Concurrent delays

The resolution of this type of delay has been a contentious legal and technical subject

in construction and engineering contracts (SCL, 2002). The reason for this is largely

due to the fact that resolving it requires the consideration of the interaction of

different factors such as the time of occurrence of the delays, their length of duration,

their critically, the legal principles of causation and float ownership (Arditi and

Robinson, 1995; Bubshait and Cunningham, 2004; Ostrowski and Midgette, 2006). Its

resolutions also require the consideration of defensive views of the parties involved,

such as argument over concurrent delays as delay-pacings strategy (Zack, 2000). The

situation is made worst by the lack of uniformly accepted definition among

practitioners as to what concurrent delays means in the first place (SCL, 2002).

Rubin et al. (1983) defined concurrent delays as the situation in which two or more

delays occur at the same time either of which had it occurred alone, would have

affected the ultimate completion date. It means each of the delays must independently

affect the critical path. Some argue that to be considered concurrent delays, the delays

need not commence precisely at the same time (for e.g. Reynolds and Revay, 2001).

There is the view also that the delays need not occur in the same activity on the same

critical path but may exist in different activities on parallel critical path as well (Ponce

de Leon, 1987; Arditi and Robinson, 1995). The SCL Protocol (SCL, 2002) defines a

47
true concurrent delay as “the occurrences of the delays, one an employer risk event and the

other a contractor risk event, at the same time, and their effects felt at the same time”. This

occurrence is, however, extremely rare in practice since time is infinitely divisible.

For instance, two delay events occurring on the same day would not necessarily be

true concurrent delays because one may have occurred in the morning while the other

in the afternoon. Concurrent delay is also somewhat misleadingly used to refer to the

occurrence of two or more delay events at different times but their effect are felt (in

whole or in part) at the same time. To avoid confusion, this is termed “concurrent

effect” of sequential delay events (SCL, 2002).

To clarify the above definitions, various scenarios of concurrent delays illustrating

these definitions are shown in Figure 3.2.

Original Actual
Start completion completion
date date date
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

B Delay

A D

Contractor delay
B

Scenario 1 A D

Employer delay C

Scenario 2 A D

B
Scenario 3
A D

Figure 3.2 Different scenarios that define Concurrent delays

The figure shows a project of 4 activities (A, B, C and D), suffering a 4-weeks project

delay, which was caused by employer and contractor delays each lasting 4 weeks.

48
Scenario 1 is where both delays, starting and ending at the same, affect a single

activity on the same critical path. In scenario 2, both delays affect different activities

on different critical paths but start and end at the same time. Scenario 3 is similar to

scenario 2 except that both delay start and end at different times.

3.2.2 Concurrent Delay Types and their Remedies

The major challenge with concurrent delays rests with allocating the responsibilities

for the overall project delay. This challenge does not lie with concurrent delay

situations of two or more delays of the same kind (i.e. from the same party) but those

of different delay types (e.g. employer delay and contractor delay). Different delay

types can be combined to give four main categories of concurrent delays as follows

(Kraiem and Diekmann, 1987):

excusable non-compensable delay and nonexcusable non-compensable delay.

excusable non-compensable delay and excusable compensable delay

excusable non-compensable delay, nonexcusable non-compensable delay and

excusable compensable delay

nonexcusable non-compensable delay and excusable compensable delay

Determining which remedy (time extensions and/or delay damages) to be accessed by

the parties for these concurrent situations is one of the much contested issues. Four

main approaches for determining such remedies have been reported in the literature as

(Marrin, 2002): First cause defines liability, dominant cause approach, the American

approach and the “Malmaison” Test.

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First cause defines liability

This approach argues that liability must rest with the party responsible for the first

delay encountered and that subsequent delays occurring during the period of the first

delay should not affect liability. For example, assume that an activity on a critical path

is being delayed by an adverse weather condition and in the course of this delay, an

activity on a parallel critical path begins to experience delay as a result of poor

planning on the part of the contractor. If this second delay ends before that of the first

then the main cause of the project delay would be attributed to the first delay. The

philosophy behind this approach is that once the job is stopped by one cause of delay,

it cannot be any more stopped by another delay, unless and until the second delay

continues after the first delay has ceased (Scott, 1993b). The main weakness of this

approach is that it does not provide solution for situations where all the delays begin

at the same time. Furthermore, the approach would be inapplicable to concurrent

delay situation arising from consecutive delays with little, if any, overlap.

This first-in-time principle of resolving causation in concurrent delays seems to

operate based on the ‘but for’ test. By this test, a party seeks to lay responsibility for

project delay on the other party by arguing that the delay would not have occurred but

for the latter’s actions or inactions which occurred first. Although such argument are

often made there appear to be no reported English case that lends support to its use.

Their application in a number of cases has received unsympathetic receptions making

it an approach that no longer has a wider appeal (Marrin, 2002).

Dominant cause approach

According to this approach, the claimant may recover its damages if it can establish

that the delay for which the defendant must assume responsibility is the overriding or

50
the ‘dominant’ cause of the loss suffered. Which cause is dominate is a question of

fact which is not solved by the mere point of order in time, but is to be decided by

applying common sense standards (Furst, 2006). This approach was given support in

the recent case of John Doyle Construction Ltd v Laing Management (Scotland) Ltd,

(2004) BLR 295. Paragraph 15 of the judgement in respect of apportionment of loss

and expense in situations of concurrent delay is as follows:

“…….In the second place, the question of causation must be treated by ‘the
application of common sense to the logical principles of causation’………In this
connection, it is frequently possible to say that an item of loss has been caused by a
particular event notwithstanding that other events played a part in its occurrence. In
such cases, if an event or events for which the employer is responsible can be
described as the dominant cause of an item of loss, that will be sufficient to establish
liability, notwithstanding the existence of other causes that are to some degree at
least concurrent.………….If an item of loss results from concurrent causes, and one
of those causes can be identified as the proximate or dominant cause of the loss, it
will be treated as the operative cause, and the person responsible for it will be
responsible for the loss.”

However, in the case of H. Fairweather and Co. Ltd v London Borough of

Wandsworth (1987) 38 BLR 106, the court considered obiter that this approach was

not correct and that each separate cause of delay should be assessed on its own

individual merits. Another weakness of this approach is the common sense criterion

relied on which could result in unfair apportionment, particularly where the

competing causes are of approximate equal causative potency. Additionally, the

approach may not suffice on projects that sustained multiple overlapping changes or

delays with long durations because of all the assumptions that must be made regarding

the remaining durations of activities being affected (Reynolds and Revay, 2001).

The American approach

Based on US case law, the general view on concurrent delays in which the employer

and the contractor are both responsible for delays to project completion, is that neither

51
party will recover financial recompense unless and to the extent that they can

segregate delay associated with each competing cause (Marrin, 2002). Kraiem and

Diekmann (1987) somehow described this view as the ‘easy rule’ and ‘fair rule’ (see

Table 3.1).

Table 3.1 Remedies for concurrent delays (Kraiem and Diekmann 1987)
Concurrent delay type Remedy (for critical path)
Any delay concurrent with excusable non Time extension
compensable
Easy rule Fair rule
Excusable compensable concurrent with non
excusable non compensable Time extension Apportionment

Marrin (2002) has criticised this approach as not likely to work well in contracts

where the contract administrator is given some discretion in dealing with contractors’

claims such as in JCT contracts. He argued that as a result of such discretion, there is

the possibility of the employer recovering liquidated damages even when the proof of

contractor’s default as the sole cause of the delay is not possible.

The “Malmaison” Test

The issue of responsibility for project delay resulting from two concurrent delays was

a fundamental issue in the recent case of Henry Boot construction (UK) Ltd v

Malmaison Hotel (Manchester) Ltd (1999) 70 Con L.R. 32. This case relates to a

dispute on pleadings in an arbitration regarding one of the contractor’s extensions of

time claims. In his judgement, HHJ Dyson J stated certain areas of common ground

that had been agreed between the parties including:

“……. it is agreed that if there are two concurrent causes of delay, one of the which
is a Relevant Event, and the other is not, then the contractor is entitled to an
extension of time for the period of delay caused by the Relevant Event
notwithstanding the concurrent effect of the other event.”

52
The view purported by this case is that provided one of the causes of delay in any

given concurrency situation affords grounds for extension of time under the contract,

then the contractor should be given time extension notwithstanding any default on his

part. This is quite similar to the American approach on the aspect of time extensions

entitlement. The approach sounds reasonable and just in the sense that denying the

contractor time extension in such circumstances could make him liable to the payment

of liquidated damages even though the project would have been delayed anyway due

to employer’s default. This denial of time extension conflicts with the prevention

principle that “a person asking another to do something cannot insist upon a condition

if it is his own fault that the condition has not been fulfilled” (see Amalgamated

Building Contractors Ltd v Waltham Holy Cross UDC (1952) All ER 452 at 455).

The approach was considered and afforded support by HHJ Seymour Q. C. in the

more recent case of The Royal Brompton Hospital NHS Trust v Hammond (No. 7)

(2001) 76 Con L.R. 148:

“However, if Taylor Woodrow was delayed in completing the works both by matters
for which it bore the contractual risk and by Relevant Events, within the meaning of
that term in the Standard Form, in light of the authorise to which I have referred, it
would be entitled to extensions of time by reason of the occurrence of the Relevant
events not withstanding its own defaults.”

A slight departure from the Malmaison case arose in the case of Motherwell Bridge

Construction Ltd v Micafil Vakuumtechnik (2002) 81 Con L.R. 44, where the Judge

stated that it is necessary to apply a test of common sense and fairness in deciding

matters of extensions of time involving issues of concurrency. He considered that a

full extension of time should be awarded where there is concurrent contractor-caused

and employer-caused delay, if it is fair and reasonable to do so. Earlier cases

supporting this view suggest that the approach is not new. Cases such as Peak

53
Construction (Liverpool) Ltd v McKinney Foundations Ltd (1970) 1 BLR 111 and

Rapid Building Group Ltd v Ealing Family Housing Association Ltd (1984) 29 BLR 5

suggest that if the separation of delays caused by the employer from those which are

the contractor’s own fault is impossible to achieve, then the contractor must be given

the benefit of the doubt in regard to an extension of time. Also in Walter Lawrence

and Son Ltd v Commercial Union Properties (UK) Ltd (1984) 4 Con. L.R. 37, in

which the Architect challenged the contractor’s time extension claim on the basis of

the occurrence of contractor concurrent delay, the court ruled the Architect’s view as

erroneous. The ruling was that the contractor was entitled to an extension of time in

respect of the inclement weather which occurred irrespective of whether or not the

contractor was at that time in culpable delay.

The Malmaison approach also appears to be favoured by claims professionals in the

UK as evident by a recent survey (Scott and Harris, 2004), making it an approach with

a wider appeal. Not surprisingly, the SCL Protocol (SCL, 2002) adopted it stating on

page 15 of the document that:

“where contractor delay to completion occurs concurrently with employer delay to

completion, the contractor’s concurrent delay should not reduce any extension of
time due”.

This approach, however, does not appear to deal specifically with the entitlement to

loss and expense. The view of the SCL Protocol on this is that:

“If the contractor incurs additional costs that are caused both by Employer Delay
and concurrent Contractor Delay, then the contractor should only recover
compensation to the extent it is able to separately identify the additional costs caused
by the employer Delay from those caused by the Contractor Delay.”

This view is similar to the American approach and received support in the Laing case

as indicated by paragraph 16 of its judgement:

54
 “In the third place, even if it cannot be said that events for which the employer is
responsible are the dominant cause of the loss, it may be possible to apportion the
loss between the causes for which the employer is responsible and other causes. In
such a case it is obviously necessary that the event or events for which the employer
is responsible should be a material cause of the loss. Provided that condition is met,
however, we are of opinion that apportionment of loss between the different causes is
possible in an appropriate case. Such a procedure may be appropriate in a case
where the causes of the loss are truly concurrent, in the sense that both operate
together at the same time to produce a single consequence.”

However, the survey by Scott and Harris (2004) suggests that practitioners have

different view on this. The majority of the respondents in this survey felt that

contractors should be entitled to cost compensation for employer caused delays

concurrent with contractor caused delays. Similar views were expressed by majority

in an earlier study by Scott (1993a).

It is clear from the foregoing that there is currently no consensus as to the resolution

of concurrent delays responsibilities. This suggests that there is still more to do in

order that concurrent delays can be resolved with fewer chances of disputes. Another

contentious matter that contributes to this problem is the issue of float and its

ownership.

3.3 Float

The concept of float in projects is often associated with critical path type schedules.

The term “float” is used to refer to the time assigned to an activity, which is longer

than the shortest time that is reasonably necessary to undertake that activity. It can

also be used in the alternative sense of the length of time before an activity becomes

on (or very close to) the critical path (see for e.g. Mirant Asia-Pacific Construction

(Hong Kong) Ltd v Ove Arup Partners International Ltd (2007) EWHC918 (TCC)).

As an example to illustrate this, an activity is said to have 3 days of float if that

activity has say 10 days available to it to be completed although the activity will

55
actually require 7 days of work. The start or finish date of this activity could therefore

be delayed up to 3 days without delaying the project completion date. The unit of

measurement of float can be days, weeks or months depending on the unit of planning

of the project. Whilst there are various types of floats, total float as described above is

of most importance in the resolution of DD claims.

Float is a valuable resource to both employers and contractors as they tend to rely on

it for planning and control purposes. Typically, it offers flexibility to contractors in

the arrangement and performance of non-critical activities, as a means of making

good delays on the critical path. Employers on the other hand, often see it as an

opportunity to make changes since it can accommodate the impact of such changes.

For these reasons, a situation can easily be envisaged where an employer’s changes

causes a delay such that the majority of float on a particular activity is consumed

making it a near critical activity. As such, any subsequent contractor-caused delay to

this activity will force it to become critical and delays the project. In this situation, the

contractor is unlikely to get an extension of time but rather would be liable to

liquidated damages. Contractors often have difficulty accepting this, arguing that had

the employer’s delay not occurred, its delay would not have caused the delay to the

project. Whether the contractor’s argument is valid or not is a question of who owns

the float that was consumed by the employer’s delay. The answer to this question

tends to influence the results of delay analysis (Arditi and Pattanakitchamroon, 2006).

Float ownership has thus been a highly debateable issue which has long exercised the

attention of researchers and other writers. McDonald and Baldwin (1989) proposed

56
three main categories of float ownership: float belongs to the contractor, float belongs

to the project; and float belongs to either party so long as it is reasonably utilised.

3.3.1 Float belongs to the contractor

This appears to be the traditional view. Earlier authors such as Wickwire and Smith

(1974), Fondahl (1975), Antill and Woodhead (1982) and De la Garza et al. (1991)

held this view on the basis that the float is an aspect of the contractor’s programme

and so it should be up to him how he constructs the project. De la Garza et al. (1991)

added that float should be traded as a commodity and that the contractor is entitled to

sell the float in case the owner needs it. Claims practitioners in the UK appear to be in

supportive of contractors owning float, as the survey of Harris and Scott (2001)

suggests. However, a major criticism on this relates to the likelihood of some

aggressive contractors taking the ownership matter to the extreme by contesting, for

example, that in order to achieve equitable adjustment, they should receive an

extension of time for any or all employer delays to allow for float restoration,

irrespective of whether or not there has been a total delay to the project (Zack, 1993).

This form of ownership is also not likely to be accepted by the courts. For instance, in

Ascon Contracting Ltd v Alfred McAlpine Construction Isle of Man Ltd (1999) 66

Con L. R. 119, the judge, in response to the contractor’s (McAlpine) argument that the

subcontractor (Ascon) cannot claim the benefit of float in the main contract and that it

belongs to the contractor for use as he wishes, stated that:

“In my judgment that argument is misconceived. The float is certainly of value to the
main contractor in the sense that delays of up to that total amount, however caused,
can be accommodated without involving him in liability for liquidated damages to the
employer or, ………..He cannot, however, while accepting that benefit as against the
employer, claim against sub-contractors as if it did not exist. ……..

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 No doubt those different situations can be described, in a sense, as ones in which the
"benefit" of the float has accrued to the defaulting party or parties, but no-one could
suppose that the main contractor has, or should have, any power to alter the result so
as to shift that "benefit".

Another case that seems to undermine this type of float ownership is Henry Boot v

Malmaison. In addressing the question of the effects of employer’s risk event on

project completion date, the judge stated that:

“………..In my view the employer is entitled to advance these other matters by way
of defence to the extension of time claim. It is entitled to say (a) the alleged employer
risk event was not likely to or did not cause delay e.g. because the items of work
affected were not on the critical path, and (b) the true cause of the ………”

3.3.2 Float belongs to the project

Under this view, the project owns the float and may be used by whoever gets it first.

Unlike most UK standard forms, most American standard contracts, particularly those

of public procurements usually specify this approach as how float in the contractor’s

programme is to be dealt with (Blake and Aaron, 1986, Wickwire, et al., 1989). This

view is also supported by American courts, upholding that float is not for the

exclusive benefit of any party to the project but should be available to either party on

a ‘first-come first-serve basis’ (Wickwire, et al., 1989). There is, however, very little

UK cases relating to float with Ascon v McAlpine as the one that comes closest to

supporting this position. The judge in this case rejected the contention that float

belongs to the contractor and concluded (using an example) that if a number of

contractors caused delay to a project they should equally share in the ‘benefit’ of any

available float. Further support to this approach is offered by the SCL Protocol (SCL,

2002) which recommends this approach as the “fall back position” if float ownership

is not specified in the contract. Its main drawback, however, lies in the fact that it

58
could lead to artificial scheduling on the part of some unscrupulous contractors, by

showing all activities as critical, in an attempt to defend themselves (Zack, 1993).

3.3.3 Float belongs to either party so long as it is reasonably utilised

As a compromise between the above two approaches, the view here is that float

belongs to either party and has to be used by the party having more reasonable basis

for its use. This seems fairer than the above two approaches in that neither party is

entitled to the exclusive control of float time nor can use it unreasonably on first come

first serve basis. However, the use of this approach is likely to be contested in practice

as the term “reasonableness” is vague in practical terms.

The issue of float ownership has also been tackled by a number of researchers. Ponce

de Leon (1982) suggests a compromise approach in which float is to be allocated in a

shared way. This sharing involves allocating a percentage of the total float available

to a given path to each activity on that path based on their durations. In the event of

an excusable delay that consumes an activity’s float beyond zero into negative, time

extension may be justified to preserve the other activities’ floats in the approved

schedule. Another compromise approach, proposed by Pasiphol and Popescu (1994),

seeks to distribute total float to each activity based on some qualitative factors.

However these factors are to be subjectively assessed and thus may be subject to

manipulations.

Householder and Rutland (1990) suggests that float ownership should be based on the

allocation of risk associated with the project cost, and that float should be owned by

the party who loses or gains as a result of fluctuation in project cost. Thus contractors

59
should own float in fixed-price contract since they bear the ultimate risk of project

cost whilst the owner should own it in cost-plus contracts for the same reason.

3.4 Early completion programmes

To avoid liquidated damages, contractors sometimes manage to programme the work

to take up shorter working period than the accepted contractual period thereby

finishing early. The surplus time between the early finish date and the contractual

completion date is often termed “project float”. However, the principle that time

extensions or liquidated damages be awarded for only delays that affect completion

date, poses two main questions on the right for the contractor to finish early:

(i) is the employer obliged to facilitate an earlier completion than the specified

contractual completion date?

(ii) is the contractor entitled to time and cost compensations for employer–caused

delays that prevent early completion, even though completion is not delayed

beyond the contractual completion date?

The unresolved issue of float ownership has made it more difficult to resolve these

questions. This first question was considered by a UK court in Glenlion Construction

Ltd v The Guinness Trust (1987) 39 BLR 89. In this case, the contractor had prepared

a programme showing completion of the works (in 101 weeks) before the contractual

date for completion of 114 weeks. The court ruled that the contractor was entitled to

complete on an earlier date, but the employer only has an obligation to provide

information to achieve the actual date for completion, without deliberately hindering

the contractor.

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On the second question, Birkby and Brough (1993) argued that there is no need for

time extensions as work has been completed within the contract period. Any payment

of delay damages to the contractor in such circumstances has also been opposed on

the basis that the contractor’s early completion programme may be unreasonable.

Zack (1993), for instance, suggests that contractors typically bid projects for the full

time of performance and often discover after bid opening and award that the job can

be accomplished in less time. Therefore to prevent the possibility of over-recovery of

compensation by contractors or expose the contractor to the possibility of liquidated

damages for failure to complete by the early completion date, certain proofs have to

be satisfied by the contractor. These include establishing that: the contract was bid on

an early completion basis, the work was managed to schedule, there was no

concurrent contractor delay and the contract allowed time for completion to be

reduced to the early completion date (Galloway and Nielsen, 1990; Zack, 1993). This

question has also been considered by a number of US cases which suggest that the

contractor may well have a case for compensation as long as the contractor’s original

plan can be proven to be reasonable and that he can show that he would have

completed earlier ‘but for’ the employer’s action or inactions (Wickwire et al., 1989).

Although it appears the issue is yet to be considered by UK courts, the American view

seem to be in agreement with that of UK professionals. In the surveys by Scott

(1993a) and Scott and Harris (2004) on how UK professionals deal with claims, the

majority of respondents were of the view that contractors should be awarded time

extensions and paid overhead cost in situations of employers delaying contractors

early completion. The view also concurs with the position taken by the SCL Protocol

(SCL, 2002).

61
3.5 Delays experienced after completion date

Another issue of importance in DD claims is the occurrence of employer-caused

delays after the expiry of contractual completion date when the contractor is in

culpable delay. There have been some questions as to whether the Contract

Administrator (e.g. Architect/Engineer) has the power to extent time or issue

variations in such situations and how the delay assessment should be done. In the past,

courts in the US resolved this matter in favour of contractors by awarding a per se

time extension from the contract completion date to that date when the delay ends

(Wickwire and Smith, 1974; Jentzen et al., 1994). This approach, often termed “gross

method”, is supported by contractors by asserting the argument that since all project

activities were showing negative floats as at the time of occurrence of the employer-

delay it would be unreasonable to expect the contractor to complete the works before

an event had occurred that delayed the completion date (Wickwire et al., 1989).

However, the concept of negative float, which maintains that activity path(s) with the

lowest negative float value is the critical path, has in part, led to “turning the table” in

favour of the employer by considering the “net effect” method. This method refers to

the addition of the amount of time taken by the delay to the date upon which the

contractor should have finished the work, be it the original or adjusted completion

date, even though this may be well before the date upon which the change was

ordered. This approach has received the favour of UK courts as evident in a number

of cases. For instance, in the case of Balfour Beatty Building v Chestermount

Properties (1993) 62 BLR 1, concerning a contract based on JCT 80, the court upheld

the arbitrator’s decision that the architect did have jurisdiction under Clause 25 to

extent time and that only a “net” extension of time should be awarded. Earlier UK

cases that offer support to this approach are Amalgamated v Waltham (1952) All ER

62
452 at 455 and McAlpine Humberoak v McDermott International (1992) 58 BLR 1 at

55. The judge in Amalgamated case cited an example that if a contractor is in

culpable delay near the end of the work and a strike (neutral event) occurs and lasts

for a month, then the contractor can get an extension of time for that month and

nothing for the earlier delays caused by his own fault. In the case of McAlpine, the

judge rejected the claimant’s argument against the gross effect stating:

“ Mr Thomas submits, that since the extra work is covered by the definition of the
work in clause 1 of the contract, and since the extra work was not ordered until 11
June, the date for completion of the work cannot precede that date. Accordingly the
defendants’ claim for damages cannot run from 1st May.
We do not agree… if a contractor is already a year late through his culpable fault, it
would be absurd that the employer should lose his claim for unliquidated damages
just because, at the last moment, he orders an extra coat of paint.”

3.6 Requirements for the production and assessment of DD claims

In dealing with projects DD, most standard forms of construction contract generally

require the contractor to notify the Architect/Engineer of an event as soon as it

becomes apparent that it has or may cause delay to the completion date and to provide

an estimate of its or expected effect on the completion date. On receiving this claim,

the Architect/Engineer is often required to act fairly and reasonably in its assessment.

In both instances, there would always be some form of analysis required, either

carried out contemporaneously or at some later point in order to determine what, if

any, extension of time and/or money should be awarded.

The question now is what should be the accepted approach one should adopt in

carrying out the analysis. A notable case that considered this issue is McAlpine

Humberoak Ltd v McDermott International (1992) 58 BLR 1. McAlpine, engaged as a

subcontractor by McDermott in respect of a North Sea oil rig project, claimed for

delay damages as a result of a large number of drawings issued by his contractor. At

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first instance, the Court of Appeal upheld that the contract had been frustrated by the

number of drawings issued to the extent that the plaintiff was no longer under an

obligation to complete within the contract period. This decision was overturned by the

Court of Appeal and held that the plaintiff approach was simply theoretical and

inappropriate, saying:

“When the Defendants’ witnesses came to give evidence, they undertook the task
which was never undertaken by the Plaintiffs, of tracing the impact of every drawing
revision, VO and TQ.….…The judge dismissed the Defendants’ approach to the case
as being a retrospective and dissectional reconstruction by expert evidence of events
almost day by day, drawing by drawing, TQ by TQ and weld procedure by weld
procedure, designed to show that the spate of additional drawings which descended
on McAlpine virtually from the start of the work really had little retarding or
disruptive effect on its progress. In our view the Defendants’ approach is just what
the case required."

Also in John Barker Construction Ltd v London Portman Hotel Ltd (1996) 83 BLR

31, the way and manner contractors’ DD claims assessment should be carried out was

a fundamental issue. In this case, the court stated that:

“I accept that Mr. Miller believed, and believes, that he made a fair assessment of the
extension of time due to the Plaintiffs. It is fairly apparent that the Defendants were
concerned by the overrun of the contract in time and costs, and I have no doubt that
Mr. Miller was conscious of this, but I believe also that he endeavoured to exercise
his judgement independently. However, in my judgment his assessment of the
extension of time due to the Plaintiffs was fundamentally flawed in a number of
respects, namely:

1. Mr. Miller did not carry out a logical analysis in a methodical

way of the impact which the relevant matters had or were
likely to have on the Plaintiffs' planned programme.
2. He made an impressionistic, rather than a calculated,
assessment of the time which he thought was reasonable for
the various items individually and overall. (The Defendants
themselves were aware of the nature of Mr. Miller's
assessment, but decided against seeking to have any more
detailed analysis of the Plaintiffs' claim carried out unless and
until there was litigation).”

This case was considered in the recent case of Balfour Beatty Construction Limited v

The Mayor and Burgess of the London Borough of Lambeth (2002) 1 BLR 288, in

64
which the claimant sought to enforce an adjudicator's decision in relation to an

extension of time and loss and expense claim. In this case, it was said by His Honour

Judge Humphrey Lloyd QC that: "In the context of a dispute about the time for

completion a logical analysis includes the logic required for in the establishment of a

CPN (critical path network)”. These cases suggest that the courts are more likely to

accept analysis based on methodical calculation, not theoretical and vague

impressions.

With regard to the issue of entitlement to an extension of time, the general principle is

proving that the delay event, which according to the contract entitles the contractor to

such entitlement has or will cause delay to completion date (Bramble and Callahan,

2000; Pickavance, 2005). The requirement for establishing this proof is often by

showing that the event was on or will be on the critical path of the work. Paragraph 15

of the judgement in Henry Boot v Malmaison confirms this:

“The respondent was entitled to respond to the claim both by arguing that the
variations, late information and so on relied on by the claimant did not cause any
delay because they were not on the critical path and positively by arguing that the
true cause of delay was other matters”.

This principle also received support in Brompton v Hammond (No. 7) (2001) 76 Con

L.R. 148 where it was alleged that the architect had been negligent in awarding

extension of time. The judge stated the following at Paragraph 32 of his judgement:

“……..In order to make an assessment of whether a particular occurrence has

affected the ultimate completion of the work, rather than just a particular operation it
is desirable to consider what operations, at the time of event with one is concerned
happens are critical to the forward progress of the work as a whole.”………

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Also in Balfour Beatty v The Mayor and Burgesses, the judge expressed at paragraph

30 of the judgment interesting statements that suggest that delay claims analysis based

on CPM are important requirements:

“………….From the material available to me it is clear that BB did little or

nothing to present its case in a logical or methodical way. Despite the fact that
the dispute concerned a multi-million pound refurbishment contract no
attempt was made to provide any critical path. The work itself was no more
complex than many other projects where a CPN is routinely established and
maintained……………….

A valid critical path (or paths) has to be established both initially and at every
later material point since it (or they) will almost certainly change”.

Further confirmation of the requirement to establish critical path in delay claims is

provided in the judgements of Motherwell v Micafil Vakuumtechnik (2002) 81 Con

L.R. 44 and Balfour Beatty construction Ltd v Serco ltd (2004) EWHC 3336 (TCC).

At paragraph 562 of the Motherwell case the judge observed:

“Crucial questions are (a) is the delay in the critical path and, if so, (b) is it caused
by Motherwell? If the answer to the first question is ‘Yes’ and the second question is
‘No’ then I must assess how many additional working days should be included”.

Paragraph 44 of the judgement in Balfour v Serco noted:

“I note that it is common ground between the programming experts, Mr Kaletka and
Mr Dedha that, in the event, the critical aspect of the works has turned out to be the
installation of two signs, known as '19TO3' and '19TO4' at Penrith. These signs have
yet to be installed. In these circumstances it seems to me that, for the purposes of
assessing Balfour Beatty's entitlement to an extension of time, it is necessary to focus
on these two signs and examine the effect of the requirement to comply with the NOD
regime upon them. In these circumstances I ignore, for these purposes, the events
summarised in claim 12 under the heading, 'Actual delays' and Balfour Beatty's other
extension of time claims on the footing that those events were non-critical”.

Having established that the CPM analysis is preferred by the courts in delay claims

preparations or assessment, the next important principle that needs to be looked at is

how such analysis should be performed or which DAM is appropriate to use. In John

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Baker v. London Portman, the impacted as-planned analysis, involving taking the

original programme as the basis of the delay calculation and inserting delay defaults

into it to determine when the work should have finished as a result of those delays,

was accepted by the judge. In this case, there was very little as-built information

available which made it appropriate to use this methodology (Pickavance, 1997).

The judgment in the recent case of Mirant Asia-Pacific Construction (Hong Kong)

Ltd v Ove Arup Partners International Ltd (2007) EWHC918 (TCC)) contains

interesting statement on the meaning and application of CPM-based analysis. This

dispute relates to claims brought against Arup (defendants) by Mirant (claimants) for

losses in connection with failings of boiler house foundations that were designed by

Arup. One of the issues examined by the judge, HHJ Toulmin CMQ QC, was whether

delay to one part of the construction programme was on the critical path and whether

delays due to remedial works, which was carried out as a result of foundation

settlement, had delayed completion. The decision of the judge which was upheld by

the Appeal Court was that Arup had been negligent in its duty in contract and tort not

to cause economic loss to its client but a careful evaluation of the facts and of the

programming data concerning the project revealed that this negligence had not caused

the damages being claimed and therefore all of Mirant’s claims were dismissed. In

making this decision, the judge made the following statements at paragraphs 119 to

137 of the judgement:

“………..What is known as the Critical Path Method is frequently used by the

construction industry both in the United States, the United Kingdom and elsewhere in
planning construction projects and in analysing the causes of delay…..……

As computers have become more sophisticated, the critical path analysis has been
enabled to become more sophisticated. This has become an invaluable tool which
enables a complex construction Project to be managed with better available
information. The analysis will identify at a given date which important aspects of the
Project are falling behind the programme, particularly if they are on or close to the

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 critical path, what if any is the impact on other aspects of the programme and where
additional resources need to be placed. It will also demonstrate where activities are
ahead of what is planned and enable a decision to be taken on whether planned
activities need to be rescheduled……….

Windows analysis is the most accepted method of critical path analysis. As

Pickavance makes clear at page 572 of his book, "Windows" (and "Watersheds") are
not methods of analysis in themselves: they are merely aspects of conducting the
critical path analysis. In essence they represent the division of the overall
construction period into smaller periods into which each new set of corresponding
progress can be entered into the programme and analysed…….

The term "Windows analysis" refers to the regular reviews and updates undertaken
by the contractor, normally monthly. These periods of time would be described as
monthly windows. Unlike previous monthly reviews, the planner would use
sophisticated software programmes to plot which activity or activities were on and
which were near to the critical path each month. The programmes would take into
account those activities which had started early or had been delayed. Also built into
the programmes would be the progress of those activities which had started since the
previous monthly window. This would enable the employer and the contractor to
analyse over the relatively short periods of time what changes had occurred, and
identify what problems needed to be investigated and put right………

The analysis would also identify delay, enabling those concerned to investigate and, if
appropriate, agree the cause at an early stage. A monthly review would, in a complex
Project like Sual, have enabled the consortium to see what activities were at or close
to the critical path and to take urgent action where necessary. It would also have
enabled a much more sophisticated retrospective analysis of the delay to be
undertaken than that which was able to be carried out…………….”

This detail and lengthy comments suggest that the courts in UK are becoming more

adept at dealing with CPM applications in DD claims resolutions, which has been the

wish of most practitioners and researchers, judging from the SCL Protocol (SCL,

2002) and other surveys (e.g. Harris and Scott, 2001; Scott et al., 2004). Courts in the

US have long gone past this stage as most of their judges are knowledgeable about

CPM and are quite happy to work through, the details of complex network

programme, for instance (Kallo, 1996; Wickwire and Groff, 2004).

Although the CPM has gained recognition as a very useful tool in proving claims, its

major criticism has been on the tendency for some unscrupulous contractors and

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employers to subject it to abuse by manipulating the analysis process to give results

that the analysts wants. This is a major concern because modern computers have

become more sophisticated and user-friendly; providing the opportunity to easily

handle, sort, manipulate and present, in a short space of time, vast quantities of data

and results of a complex delay analysis problem. The courts and other triers-of-facts

have therefore been extra vigilant with CPM usage in delay claims and will not

naively accept as accurate complicated and unintelligible analysis based on fancy

computer-generated results (Schumacher, 1995: Wickwire and Groff, 2004).

The proper use of the CPM for conducting transparent and accurate analysis is

therefore a matter of great importance that analysts have to note. More recent

examples that illustrate the need for ensuring correct analysis can be found in Skanska

Construction UK Ltd v Egger (Barony) Ltd (2004) EWHC 1748 (TCC), Great Eastern

Hotel Company Ltd v John Laing Construction Ltd (2005)EWHC 181 (TCC) and City

Inn Ltd v Shepherd Construction Ltd (2007) CSOH CA101/00. These cases also

contain some helpful advice on the approach taken by the courts in relation to the use

of experts in construction delay claims assessment.

Egger, a wood and other timber-based product firm entered into a contract with

Skanska for the construction of a sophisticated wood chipping plant in Scotland. The

project’s guaranteed maximum price was £12m. The disputes concerned claims made

by Skanska in the order of a further £12 million relating to what it argued were due to

delays, extensions of time and loss and expense. There was also a counterclaim from

Egger for more than £4 million. At trial, each party adduced expert evidence of

programming experts, who used very different methods to analyse the evidence

relating to delays. Even though the expert engaged by Skanska employed less

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sophisticated computer software with little resources at his disposal compared to that

of Egger, the Judge, HHJ Wilcox expressed preference for the approach adopted by

the former describing him as "objective, meticulous as to detail, and not hide bound by

theory when demonstrable fact collided with computer program logic". On the other hand,

the judge considered the approach of Egger’s witness to be highly flawed criticising it

for errors made in reconstructing the initial contract programme in a computer-based

CPM and therefore not reliable to use as a baseline for the analysis:

“Mr Pickavance produced a report of some hundreds of pages supported by 240

charts. It was a work of great industry incorporating the efforts of a team of
assistants in his practice. It was evident that the report, … was largely based upon
factual matters digested for Mr Pickavance by his assistants …. There were times
when the impression was created that Mr Pickavance was not entirely familiar with
the details of the report, which he signed and presented. … There were pressures of
time upon him. This and the extent of reliance upon the untested judgment of others in
selecting and characterising the data for input into the computer programme however
impeccable the logic of that programme, adversely affects the authority of the opinion
based upon such an exercise.

… It is evident that the reliability of Mr Pickavance’s sophisticated impact analysis is

only as good as the data put in. The court cannot have confidence as to the
completeness and quality of the input into this complex and rushed computer project.
I preferred the evidence of Mr Simpson as to programming and planning matters to
that of Mr Pickavance.”

The case of Great Eastern v Laing concerned the refurbishment and extension of the

Great Eastern Hotel in London. The works were carried out by trade contractors with

Laing as construction manager of the project. The dispute involved claims raised by

Great Eastern in respect of project delay of about 44 calendar weeks. By way of

defence, Laing made a counterclaim based upon alleged material misrepresentation

and also denied culpability of the delay by pointing finger at both other parties and

other concurrent causes of delay. In relation to the case on delay, the expert witnesses

of the parties approached their analyses of the delay using two different approaches

which attracted insightful comments from the Judge. His did not find favour with the

approach adopted by the defendant’s expert witness:

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 “I reject Mr Celetka's evidence that the late design information either caused or
contributed to the critical delay in the Project. His analysis was self confessedly
incomplete. He did not have the time to approach the research of this aspect of the
case in the complete and systematic way, furthermore, the impacted as planned
analysis delay takes no account of the actual events which occurred on the Project
and gives rise to an hypothetical answer when the timing of design release is
compared against the original construction programme. Thus it would take no
account of the fact that the design team would have been aware of significant
construction delays to the original master programme, and would have been able to
prioritise design and construction to fit this. Furthermore, Mr Celetka in his report
compares the timing of the actual design releases against an original programme
which was superseded by later versions of the procurement programme on which
Laing showed later dates for the provision of the information required”.

The judge was rather satisfied with the analysis of the claimant’s expert witness:

“I accept Mr France's careful evidence as to the impact of the flow of design

information throughout the Project. It was based on thorough research and objective
analysis. Whilst there was some delay in relation to the provision of design
information, it was not critical delay. It was the delay endemic in a large and
complex Project when it is anticipated that the design would evolve and some
information was provided "just in time…..”

“Mr France took account of the actual events in his researches and exhibited in his
researches and conclusions the clear-sighted objectivity that informs the whole of his
report…”

The case of City Inn v Shepherd Construction Ltd (2007) CSOH 190 concerned the

construction of a hotel in Bristol under an amended JCT 80 Form. Matters in dispute

included the pursuer, City Inn, seeking a declarator that the defendant, Shepherd

Construction Ltd were not entitled to the contended 11 weeks time extension and even

the four-week extension granted by the architect. Both parties relied upon the expert

evidence of their programming experts, who were described by the judge, Lord

Drummond Young as “well qualified to speak about the issues that arose in the

case”.

The defendant’s expert did not carry out a critical path analysis, giving the reason that

he did not have access to an electronic version of the defenders' original programme

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for the project. His approach, which was a form of As-planned v As-built method, was

therefore criticised by the pursuer for not based on the critical path analysis. Although

the pursuer’s expert carried out critical path analysis of the as-built programme, it was

rejected by the judge as indicated in paragraph 29 of the judgement:

“In my opinion the pursuers clearly went too far in suggesting that an expert could
only give a meaningful opinion on the basis of an as-built critical path analysis. For
reasons discussed below (at paragraphs [36]-[37]) I am of opinion that such an
approach has serious dangers of its own. I further conclude, as explained in those
paragraphs, that Mr Lowe's own use of an as-built critical path analysis is flawed in
a significant number of important respects. On that basis, I conclude that that
approach to the issues in the present case is not helpful. The major difficulty, it seems
to me, is that in the type of programme used to carry out a critical path analysis any
significant error in the information that is fed into the programme is liable to
invalidate the entire analysis. Moreover, for reasons explained by Mr Whitaker
(paragraphs [36]-[37] below), I conclude that it is easy to make such errors. That
seems to me to invalidate the use of an as-built critical path analysis to discover after
the event where the critical path lay, at least in a case where full electronic records
are not available from the contractor.”

In concluding, the judge expressed his preference to analysis based on factual

evidence, sound practical experience and common sense despite that such analysis

might not be based on critical path analysis and jettisoned the approach based on

flawed as-built critical path analysis.

The foregoing comments suggests that if critical path analysis is to be relied upon in

delay claims analysis, then it has to be done accurately, and with due recognition of

practicality and pragmatism. There is also the need for analysts to take into account

actual events which occurred on the project otherwise the analysis would only

produce hypothetical answers. This latter requirement received support in the recent

case of Leighton Contractors (Asia) Limited v Stelux Holding Ltd HCCT 29/2004 in

the Court of First Instance of Hong Kong. Disputes between the parties, which were

referred to arbitration, include claims arising from critical delays allegedly due to the

defendant releasing tender information for the heating, air conditioning and electrical

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subcontract works late. In arguing its case, Leighton contended that the contract made

it clear that both “delay” and “likely delay” gave proper grounds for an extension of

time and therefore if the arbitrator thought that an event was likely to cause delay by

standing in the architect’s shoes at the time of the delay events, then an extension of

time should have granted. The arbitrator rejected these contentions concluding that the

late information could not have caused actual delay. This decision was upheld by the

court.

The above cases suggest that although CPM techniques are recognised as appropriate

for delay analysis, it is very important for contractors and employers or their agents to

employ techniques that consider what actually happened on site based on factual

evidence. Theoretical delays calculated without taking into account actual project

records are unlikely to succeed. However, the cases do not seem to make things clear

as to which methodology is the most acceptable to the courts.

3.7 Summary

This chapter reviewed the theoretical and legal principles that underlie the preparation

or assessment of projects DD claims. The review was based on general research

papers on DD analysis and UK cases and was limited to relevant issues such as: the

resolution of concurrent delays, float ownership, resolving delays when programme

shows early completion, delays experienced after completion date and the

requirements for the production or assessment of DD claims. The findings of this

review offered important information on the requirements of properly performing DD

analysis, which served as the basis for some of the issues that were empirically

73
investigated and the best practice recommendations proposed. A summary of the main

findings are as follows:

(a) There is no common definition amongst practitioners as to what concurrent delay

means. Despite this, there seem to be some accepted principles with regard to its

effect on the entitlement to extension of time and compensation to prolongation

cost. These principles, similar to the approach adopted in the US, are:

- the contractor is entitled to extension of time but no compensation in the

situation where the contractor delay is concurrent with an employer delay

- to be entitled to compensation as well, the contractor should be able to

separately identify the additional costs caused by the employer delay from

those caused by the contractor delay.

The analysis of DD claims therefore requires the use of methodologies that can

take account of concurrent delays and their effects.

(b) Float is a resource which can be increased or depleted due to the actions of the

employer or the contractor. Whether a contractor will be entitled to a time

extension or otherwise is significantly affected by the issue of who owns float.

However, this issue remains unresolved (probably because it is not addressed in

most contracts) and a potential source of dispute.

(c) Contractors are entitled to complete on an earlier date than the specified

contractual completion date but the employer is not obliged to provide

information or other deliverables to ensure the former, without deliberately

hindering the contractor.

(d) Time extensions awards for delay claims involving employ-caused delays

occurring after the expiry of contractual completion date when the contractor is

74
 in culpable delay, are likely to be resolved by adding the amount of time taken by

the delay to the date upon which the contractor should have finished the work, be

it the original or adjusted completion date, even though this may be well before

the date upon which the delay-events events occurred.

(e) The CPM is now an essential tool for the resolution of DD claims as it makes it

possible to satisfy, among others, the requirements of proving or disproving

extension of time entitlements by establishing whether or not the delayed

activities were on the critical path and the effect of such delays on this path.

(f) The use of CPM approach for delay claims productions or assessment should be

backed by the following principles:

- the approach should be backed by good factual evidence;

- effective presentation of that evidence through clear and transparent

analysis;

- those giving evidence in Court in the capacity of an expert, must ensure

that their approach is both balanced and objective; and

- the expert should also be thorough, clear and sensible in his/her approach.

(g) Even though UK courts are increasing becoming aware of the use of DAMs, than

hitherto was the case, the question of what constitutes the proper applications of

these methods and which is the most appropriate are unclear from the review of

the cases. The literature review and empirical investigations on existing DAMs

(reported in Chapters 5 and 6) were therefore devoted to resolving some of these

questions.

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 CHAPTER FOUR

4 PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING ISSUES

4.1 Introduction

It can be inferred from the previous chapter that a vital part of the procedure in the

resolution of DD claims is for claimants to produce adequate documentation to show

that the opposing party is responsible for the additional time and/or cost being

claimed. Often at the centre of this is the question of availability and accuracy of

information on two matters: (i) exactly what the contractor would have done had the

event or circumstance complained of not occurred and (ii) what the contractor actually

did. Sources of information for answering these questions include the contract

documents, baseline programme, progress reports, project, correspondence, site

dairies, minutes of meetings, supervision and inspection reports, resource usage and

costs and (Thomas, 2001; Pickavance, 2005). A major source of the information is

also generated by contractors on a periodic basis in the form of statused/updated and

revised programmes. Timely keeping of these information in an accurate, well-

organised manner throughout the life cycle of the project is a key task in preparing,

analysing and resolving DD claims (Kartam, 1999). However, a common thread

running through literature in textbooks and research papers is that there is usually a

dearth of relevant, useful and contemporaneous documentation (Worby et al, 1985;

Pickavance, 2005).

Notwithstanding this, much of the research effort that has gone into finding solutions

to the problems in DD analysis has been limited to developing of methodologies for

analysing DD as highlighted in Section 1.1. It is noteworthy that these methodologies

are of very little use in practice if the information required for their proper use is

76
usually lacking. Investigating issues of construction planning and programming,

which is a major source of the information, is therefore an important consideration in

the development of an appropriate framework for improving DD analysis. To gain an

appreciation of the need and areas for such an investigation, this chapter first reviews

how deficiencies in contractors’ programmes and programming practice may be

contributing to the problem of lack of information. It then identified the possible

causes of these deficiencies and areas that require further studies for promoting

improved practices that will enhance proper DD analysis.

4.2 Deficiencies in Contractors’ Programmes

Most construction contracts require the contractor to provide a programme at the

commencement of the works to show the sequence and timing of the construction

activities. Not only do programmes serve as tools for managing projects, they are also

valuable sources of information for identifying and modelling delays and their effect

on progress. The use of computerised CPM for this latter function is now the norm

(Wickwire et al, 1989; Kallo, 1996; Pickavance, 2005). This reliance is due to the fact

that the programmes indicate the intent and also offer useful historical records, which

enable the determination of the effects of delay events and calculation of damages.

For the programme to be appropriate for this function, it has to be free of any form of

deficiencies (Reams, 1990; Bramble and Callahan, 2000). However, a number of

commentators have observed that most contractors’ programmes have deficiencies

thereby making the resolution of DD disputes more difficult. In his doctoral research

into contractors’ programmes on UK construction projects, Scott (1991) found that

most contractors’ programmes are poorly produced and lack appropriate activity

details. Keane (1994) also noted from his doctoral work that the preparation, format

77
and logical basis of most contractors’ programmes are usually unsatisfactory. In

addition, contractors are reluctant to provide details of envisaged resources in their

programmes thus making it difficult to assess the impact of delays on usage of

resources and their productivities in the event of delays (Yogeswaran et al, 1998).

Winter and Johnson (2000) also shared the view that most contractors’ programmes

do not have the necessary links, are not resource-driven and, on the whole, are not

prepared to reflect what will actually happen on site, but are designed to win the job

for the contractor.

The foregoing supports the view that a considerable proportion of contractors only

pays lip service to programming and only employs CPM for mere superficial

compliance with specifications (Revay, 2000; Bramble and Callahan, 2000). Whist

there are obvious benefits to proper programming, it is surprising that many

contractors do not provide employers with a proper programme and then manage it

appropriately. Some researchers and commentators have identified a number of

reasons for this poor practice. In his research work, Jaafari (1984) observed that CPM

scheduling was not performing well because of: lack of experience and willingness on

the part of contractors, difficulty in controlling performance against the plan due to

general variations, the use of multiple contracts and lack of detailed design before

project commences. Similar findings were identified by Nahapiet and Nahapiet (1985)

in their research into management of construction projects in the UK and US. They

observed marked reluctance by contractors to update programmes even when the

nature and number of activities had altered over time. The reasons given for this

reluctance ranged from the amount of work reprogramming would entail, to the

almost certain knowledge that as soon as any revision had been submitted, further

changes would invalidate it. In addition, Mace (1990) in a review of programming

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practice identified a number of problems: treating programmes as a recording

mechanism instead of as a forward planning; lack of adequate information on various

procurement times of some activities; and the tendency of relying entirely on

computer with little consideration of the users of the plans on error checking.

The implication of the above state of affairs is that most constructors’ programmes are

likely to suffer from a number of deficiencies. Typical of the deficiencies that will

impair their utilisation for DD analysis include: poor baseline programmes, failure to

update programmes, and inadequately updated programmes. These deficiencies can

lead to difficulties and disputes in resolving claims because, in the absence of

properly prepared and timeously updated CPM programme, it would be difficult to

determine whether delayed completion is indeed due to the specific types of delays

complained of, i.e., causal connection between breach and damage is not readily

apparent (see Section 3.6).

4.2.1 Poor baseline programmes

The baseline programme submitted by the contractor is the initial as-planned

programme that reflects the intended plan for executing the project. Its importance in

DD analysis lies in its ability to demonstrate the period of time within which the

contractor would have completed the project absent any delays. Shortcomings in

baseline programmes that often make them invalid or unreliable tools for this purpose

include the following.

(i) Programmes prepared in a format other than CPM: Except in simple delay

claims, CPM format is the highly recognised tool for proving delay because it

allows the determination of the critical path and shows the interrelationships

among multiple causes of delay (Wickwire et al, 1989; Kallo, 1996).

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(ii) Incomplete programmes: That is failing to include all the work that must be

undertaken. This makes it difficult to evaluate how all activities and their delays

interact to affect project completion (Bramble and Callahan, 2000; Zafar and

Rasmussen, 2001).

(iii) Insufficient details provided for the programme activities: This makes it

difficult to measure progress and the effect of delays adequately. For instance,

consider an employer ordering a variation in a building project that affected an

activity on the critical path described as “construct first floor slab”. If this

variation actually affected the scope of some of the specific work tasks within

this activity, then the actual delay incurred as a result of the variation cannot be

accurately determined.

(iv) Unreasonable logic or relationships between activities: Such relationships do

not accurately represent the contractor’s intended sequence of work (Reams,

1990; Zafar and Rasmussen, 2001), and thus would result in erroneous delay

analysis results.

(v) Insufficient provisions for constraints likely to be encountered: Examples of

such constraints include local weather conditions; statutory requirements and

restrictions, contractual stipulations on the order in which the works are to be

completed; time required for employer or other agency for approvals,

inspections and information and availability of equipment and material (Reams,

1990; Zafar and Rasmussen, 2001).

(vi) Unrealistic planned resource allocations. This results in incorrect duration and

cost allocation of activities making the baseline programme unreliable (Kartam,

1999; Zafar and Rasmussen, 2001).

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 (vii) Unrealistic durations of major activities: The effect of this is the creation of

unreasonable floats and incorrect project completion date in the baseline

programme.

Thus, for the baseline programme to be a credible tool in DD analysis it has to be free

of the above pitfalls. In the case of Pacific Construction Co. Ltd. v Greater Vancouver

Regional Hospital District (1986) 23 CLR 35 (B.C.S.Ct), the British Columbian

Supreme Court emphasised the necessity of evaluating the validity and reasonableness

of contractor’s baseline schedule before employing it in delay analysis. Similarly, in

Balfour Beatty v London Borough of Lambeth (2002) 1 BLR 288, the His Honour

Judge Lloyd QC observed: “ By now one would have thought that it was well understood

that, on a contract of this kind, in order to attack, on the facts, a clause 24 certificate for non-

completion (or an extension of time determined under clause 25), the foundation must be the

original programme (if capable of justification and substantiation to show its validity and

reliability as a contractual starting point) and its ……”

4.2.2 Failure to update programmes

Programme updating is reviewing periodically the plan and progress of work. This is

necessitated by the fact that the uncertain conditions in which construction projects

operate inevitably cause plans and estimates to change (Laufer et al., 1994). There

may also be a need to evaluate work procedures, performances, delays and their

associated causes (Kursave, 2003).

As a result of the inevitable changes in construction projects, failure to update the

programme would result in lack of important information such as:

changes in critical path;

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 actual start and finish dates and percent complete for each activity;

milestone status and potential problem areas;

logic changes from previous updates.

These types of information serve to establish when and what changes occurred during

the course of the project and enable DD analysis in “real time” (i.e. determining the

effect of individual delays on project as at their time of occurring). Thus failure to

update the programme regularly can create difficulties in DD claims resolutions. For

instance, in the US cases of Fortec Construction v. United States (1985) 8 Cl. Ct. 490

and Continental Consolidation Corp. v. United State. Nos. 2743 and 2766, 67-2 BCA

6624, the CPM schedules used to evaluate delays were rejected by the courts because

they were not updated to reflect changes as they occurred.

4.2.3 Inadequately updated programmes

An updated programme that does not adequately reflect the contractor’s as-built

progress as the project unfolds would not be able to accurately predict project delays

and their impacts. Thus, to maintain the updated programme as a realistic tool for

assessing delays, it has to be a competent one. There are different approaches to

updating which can affect the adequacy of updated programmes.

One approach is updating the programme as and when the scheduler deems it

necessary. For instance, updating the programme when the project falls behind

schedule or when unexpected changes in the programme occur as required by some

contract documents. Other important factors influencing the frequency of updating

include occurrence of specific control events, the degree of uncertainty, the magnitude

of the project, the time of completion and the troubles encountered (Kursave, 2003).

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Another approach involves pre-determined periodic updates. This approach has the

tendency of giving more accurate picture of how the work progressed than in the first

approach. This is because in this first approach for instance, the scheduler may not be

fully aware of project slippage so that, by the time he/she agrees that an update is

needed, the project might have slipped considerably and contemporaneous

information for updating might not be readily available.

Other factors affecting the adequacy of updated programmes are the degree of detail

of the updating. As a minimum in each updating process, the following have to be

identified: actual start dates, actual finish dates, percent complete and remaining

durations per schedule activity (Kursave, 2003). The accuracy and timing of these

data are also very important in the production of proper updated programmes.

4.3 Causes of the deficiencies

The production of a reliable baseline programme involves the collation of information

from various sources. A guide to good programming practice, produced by the UK’s

Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB, 1991) has grouped these sources of

information into a number of forms:

project information (contract, design, site, specialist);

production information (staff experience, previous jobs records, etc);

reference information (industry data, papers, periodicals);

factual information (weather records, dimensions of equipment, etc) and

the planning brief.

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Specific skills are required in order to gather this information and translate it

analytically into a reasonable baseline programme and other planning outputs such as

method statements, cost and cash flow forecasts, manpower requirements, material

requirements, project organisation and site set up and layout.

A number of issues tend to impact on the planning and programming process, which

can cause deficiencies in the programme produced and their subsequent updates. A

review of research-based papers and published commentaries by practitioners

identified the following as the possible causes of deficiencies in programme and

programming practice.

inadequate planning expertise;

poor enforcement of planning obligations;

poor personal liaison of planners with others;

lack of proper communication;

inadequate planning effort;

inefficient allocation of construction planning resources;

inadequate contractual provisions for programming;

poor involvement of field personnel;

insufficient time and information for tender preparation;

contract administrator’s programming expertise; and

programmesmanship.

4.3.1 Inadequate planning expertise

The achievement of satisfactory programme demands planners of high competence

and experience (CIOB, 1991). However, in research reported by Kelsey et al. (2001)

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some planners felt that two generation of planners (taking a generation at 15 years)

had now appeared who had little site experience. Furthermore, Street (2000) in a

review of pitfalls of CPM scheduling on construction projects, noted that most

contractors do not have in-house CPM expertise. This situation is likely to result in

poorly developed and poorly maintained schedules.

4.3.2 Poor enforcement of programming obligations

It appears from the previous section that most contractors view programmes as

nothing more than a requirement of the contract and do not take it seriously enough to

properly develop and maintain them. Moreover, a clause in contract documents does

not of itself encourage the use of CPM-based programme, rather top management

support is vital for their continual usage (Esthete and Langford, 1987). Poor

enforcement of planning obligations will thus offer too much flexibility within the

programming requirements resulting in lack of strict adherence to scheduling

specifications that are meant to ensure proper scheduling of the work.

4.3.3 Poor personal liaison of planners with others

The review identified two main issues responsible for this cause. Firstly, planners are

often isolated from formal administration channels due to the nature of their work and

this creates difficulties for them in gathering of information (Cullen and Nankervis,

1985; Laufer, et al., 1994). Secondly, planners are not always completely open on

their programmes, particularly with the employer, probably for fear that their own

programmes could be used to defeat any of their claims (Revay, 2000). Conversely,

this lack of openness makes the employer very cautious about being tied to a

85
contractor’s programme. Apprehension of this sort is likely to affect proper

preparation and maintenance of programmes.

4.3.4 Lack of proper communication

Timely, reliable and clear information gathering and distribution is a central issue in

planning during construction (Laufer, et al., 1994). Thus improper communication

between project stakeholders particularly site managers, subcontractors and

architect/engineer team will affect the availability of information for effective

programme management. For instance, the practice of issuing verbal instructions and

hand drawn sketches by the designer’s site representative without a confirmation by

the contractor (as some contract forms require), often result in difficulty in finding

project records when investigating causes of delay some time later. Another example

is the situation where the architect or engineer issues drawing under cover of

instructions, letters, transmittal sheets and other forms, without distinguishing

between explanatory details and changes to the original design. This practice may not

facilitate possible review of effects on programme and thus contributes to failure by

the contractor to give notice of delay, or extra cost at the earliest possible time.

4.3.5 Inadequate planning effort

A study by Faniran et al. (1994) shows that the extent to which emphasis is placed on

the determination of construction methods during planning has a significant effect on

the improvement of construction planning effectiveness. However one major

deficiency in construction planning practices is over-emphasis on scheduling and

control at the expense of methods as highlighted in a paper by Laufer and Tucker

(1987). In addition, relatively little effort is made by planners to seek required

86
additional information during planning with the usual practice being to feed

deterministic planning models with pure guesswork data (Arditi, 1981; Laufer and

Tucker, 1987).

4.3.6 Inefficient allocation of construction planning resources

Construction planning effectiveness can be improved by increasing the amount of

resources invested in construction planning (Faniran et al., 1994; 1998). However,

there is evidence also that investing in construction planning beyond an optimum

point will lead to deterioration of project performance (Faniran et al., 1999; Neale and

Neale, 1989). Therefore inefficient allocation of resources for construction planning

has the potential of negatively affecting project performance.

4.3.7 Poor involvement of field personnel

Effective programming requires the involvement of many parties (Laufer, et al.,

1994). More importantly, field supervisors must be totally familiar with and in

agreement with all details of the programme. As Baki (1999) puts it, the more input

the person responsible for carrying out the plan has in the development of the plan,

the more likely it is to be followed. However, earlier research in UK (Cullen and

Nankervis, 1985) indicated that field personnel are often excluded from strategic

planning and from receiving planning information. This exclusion would work

detrimentally against scheduling process thereby resulting in deficiencies in

programmes that could have been avoided had the field personnel been consulted.

87
4.3.8 Insufficient time and information for proper tender preparation

Adequate planning time prior to commencement of work on site is one of the factors

significantly responsible for effective planning (Faniran et al., 1994). However,

research by Kelsey et al. (2001) shows that most planners work under shorter time

constraints during tender preparation which may affect the quality of pre-contract

programmes submitted with the contractors’ tenders. The planners interviewed in that

research also complained of consistently poor quality and insufficient information for

tender programme preparation leading to guessing for missing information. This

affects the use of the tender programmes as proper bases for construction programmes

or sometimes for assessing extensions of time when it is the only programme

available prior to experiencing delays.

4.3.9 Inadequate contractual provisions for programming

Most of the UK contract documents do not have adequate provisions and sufficient

emphasis for effective preparation and maintenance of contractors’ construction

programmes (Thomas, 2001; Pickavance, 2005). Scheduling specifications that lack

important programming requirements offer an advantage to unscrupulous contractor.

In contrast, the situation in the US may be better because as late as over three decades

ago, most conditions of contract required a schedule in CPM or PERT format with a

requirement to update periodically the schedule to reflect contract performance

(Wickwire et al., 1989).

4.3.10 Contract administrator’s programming expertise

For prompt and proper assessment of extensions of time claims, most forms of

contract require the contractor to provide timely notice of delay and its particulars to

88
the contract administrator. However, it is not uncommon for contractors to provide

brief information (if at all) on particulars of delay events making it difficult for the

contract administrator to assess properly the effects of delay (Thomas, 2001).

Presumably the contract administrator might be expected to identify all relevant

particulars required to make a decision on the extension of time and ask the contractor

to supply them. Some contract forms (e.g. clause 25.3.4 of Joint Contracts Tribunal

Standard Form of Building Contracts, 1998 Edition) require the contract administrator

to consider the reasonableness of the contractor’s endeavour to prevent or minimise

delay and the effect of all other events even if not notified by the contractor when

reviewing extension of time claims. As a result of these responsibilities, contract

administrators with inadequate expertise on programming would not facilitate proper

maintenance of programme for effective delay assessment.

4.3.11 Programmesmanship

This is a ploy used by contractors by deliberately submitting over-optimistic

programmes in the hope of sustaining a delay claim even if the contract is completed

within the contract period. Typical examples include a contractor’s programme having

unrealistic early completion date, artificial logic to exaggerate known delay, artificial

activity durations and logic to hide float (Zack, 1993).

4.4 Programming practice contribution to DD analysis difficulties

As a summary of the review, Figure 4.1 illustrates how poor programming practice

contributes to difficulties in DD analysis. This shows that remedying the deficiencies

in contract programmes is an important requirement for the achievement of improved

89
DD analysis. To devise a framework for ensuring this, areas that require further

attention include:

employer and planners involvement in programming after contract award;

programme management

the importance/use of programmes in DD claims

progress reporting and its content

output of the planning process and nature of the programmes produced;

the extent of use of programming software packages.

90
 Causes of programme deficiencies
· Poor enforcement of planning obligations
· Inadequate planning expertise
· Poor personal liaison of planners with others
· Lack of proper communication
· Inadequate planning effort
· Inefficient allocation of construction planning resources
· Inadequate contractual provisions for programming
· Programmesmanship
· Poor involvement of field personnel
· Insufficient time and information for tender preparation
· Contract administrator’s programming expertise

· project information · programmes

· production information · method statement · Poor baseline programme · Lack of information

· reference information · cost and cash flow chart · Failure to update programmes · Inaccessible information

· factual information · manpower allocation · Inadequate updated · Adhoc information source

· planning brief · material allocation

programme · Inconsistent information

· organisation and system set up · Gaps/conflict/errors in information

· site set up and layout

Planning Information sources Essential Planning deliverables Deficiencies in programmes DD information problems causing disputes

Figure 4.1 The relationship between programming and DD information problems/disputes

91
4.5 Summary

This chapter has sought to establish the deficiencies in contractors’ programmes that

make them unreliable for DD analysis. The main deficiencies are poor baseline

programmes, failure to update programmes, and inadequately updated programmes.

Possible causes of these deficiencies identified include poor enforcement of planning

obligations, inadequate planning expertise, poor inter-personal interaction of planners

with others, lack of proper communication, inadequate planning effort, inefficient

allocation of construction planning resources, inadequate contractual provisions for

programming, programmesmanship, poor involvement of field personnel, insufficient

time and information for tender preparation, and lack of contract administrator’s

programming expertise. To remedy these deficiencies and ensure better planning and

programming practice for improved DD analysis, areas of further attention include:

employer and planners involvement in scheduling after contract award;

programme management

the importance/use of programmes in DD claims

progress reporting and its content

output of the planning process and nature of the programmes produced;

the extent of use of scheduling software packages.

These in addition to the results of questionnaire survey on DD methodologies

(reported in Chapter 6) formed the basis of the interviews conducted following the

survey. The interview was intended to establish the actual extent of the current

programming problems affecting DD analysis so that appropriate recommendations

for improvement can be formulated.

92
 CHAPTER FIVE

5 METHODOLOGIES FOR ANALYSING DD CLAIMS

5.1 Introduction

The previous chapter reviewed important theoretical and legal principles that underlie

the resolution of DD claims. The review established that DAMs based on CPM are

recognised and accepted as useful in proving or disproving of DD claims. It also

revealed that, whilst courts in the UK are becoming more adept in the use of these

methodologies, it is unclear as to which of the available methodologies is most

acceptable by the courts and how each should be applied appropriately. To enable

further investigation of these matters, this chapter reports on a review of the existing

DDA methodologies in respect of what these methods are, their applications,

strengths and weaknesses.

As pointed out earlier in Section 3.1, there are two distinct groups of methodologies

for undertaking DD analysis – the DAMs and DSAMs. The review therefore covered

these methodologies under separate headings. To appreciate their differences and

what each group entails, it first examines the distinction between delay claims and

that of disruption.

5.2 Delay and Disruption contrasted

In the context of construction claims, the term “Delay”, in its most basic form entails

an increase in the time necessary to complete the project beyond that which was

contemplated at the time the contract was signed. Damages under such claims usually

involve claims for extended home and field office overhead, additional costs of

93
financing, and other time-related claim items (Haese and Dragelin, 2001). On the

other hand, the term “disruption” is used to describe any material alteration in the

performance conditions that were expected at the time of bid from those actually

encountered, resulting in increased difficulty and cost of performance (Finke, 1997).

Typical changes in working conditions include out-of-sequence work, trade stacking,

unbalanced crews, excessive labour fluctuations, overtime, and working in adverse

weather conditions (Hanna and Heale, 1994; Schwartzkopf, 1995). A classic result of

disruption is loss in productivity as more labour and equipment hours will be required

to do the same work in the end than would otherwise have been the case. The types of

damages that are recoverable under delay claims and that of disruption are therefore

different. Another significant difference between the two heads of claims is that

unlike delay damages, disruption damages can occur regardless of whether project

completion date changes or not. Delay in completion only occurs when the delays

and/or disruption events lie on the project’s critical path. It is for this close association

between DD that the two groups of methodologies are often combined to produce a

complete proof demonstration.

The DAMs make use of scheduling techniques such as CPM. Their application

processes are largely analytical in nature, involving impacting a form of the

construction schedule with facts surrounding the claims, to establish the amount of

project delay caused by each of the parties involved. On the other hand, DSAMs

involve the collection of facts, particularly on productivity, and interpreting them to

demonstrate cause-and-effect relationships between the alleged disruption events and

the extra time and/or costs suffered as a result. Boyle (2007) describes this process as

deductive and that of delay analysis as inductive on the basis that the former often

94
begins with moving from the general to the specific and vice versa for the latter.

Boyle (2007) colourfully illustrated this and other distinguishing features of the two

processes as bookends supporting the claims (see Figure 5.1).

FACTS

Figure 5.1 Delay and Disruption Analysis Depicted as Bookends Supporting a Claims
(Boyle, 2007)

5.3 Delay Analysis Methodologies (DAMs)

Various DAMs, known by different terminologies among practitioners, have been

reported in the literature (see Table 5.1). The common aim of these methodologies

has been to investigate how delays experienced by the various project activities affect

others and the project completion date and then to determined how much of the

overall project delay is attributable to each party. However, the various methodologies

achieve this at different levels of accuracies due to their different attributes. The

following gives an overview of the difference between the various methodologies and

their brief descriptions.

95
 Table 5.1 Names of existing DAMs
Common name Literature review Alternative names used by different
authors
S-Curve Rubin et al. (1999) Dollar-to-Time Relationship
(Trauner, 1990)
Non-CPM based techniques

Global Impact Leary and Bramble (1988);

technique Alkass et al., (1995; 1996);
Pinnell, (1998)

Net Impact Leary and Bramble (1988); Bar chart analysis (Zack, 2001; Lucas,
Alkass et al. (1995, 1996) 2002)
As-built bar chart (Bordoli and
Baldwin, 1998)

As-planned vs. Stumpf (2000); Lucas (2002); Adjusted as-built CPM (Leary and
As-built Lovejoy (2004); Pickavance Bramble, 1988; Alkass et al., 1996)
(2005) Total time (Zack, 2001; Wickwire and
Groff, 2004)
Impacted as-built CPM (Pinnell,
1998)

As-Planned but Alkass et al. (1996); Pinnell,

for (1998)

Impacted As- Trauner, (1990); Pinnell (1998); What if (Schumacher, 1995)

planned Lucas (2002); Lovejoy (2004) Baseline adding impacts (Bordoli and
Pickavance (2005) Baldwin, 1998)
As-planned-plus delay analysis (Zack,
2001; Chehayeb et al, 1995)
As-planned CPM (Pinnell, 1998)
CPM based techniques

Collapsed As- Pinnell (1998); Stumpf (2000); But-for (Schumacher, 1995; Zack,
built Wickwire and Groff (2004); 2001; Lucas, 2002)
Lovejoy (2004) As-built but-for (Pickavance, 2005)
As-built subtracting impacts (Bordoli
and Baldwin, 1998)
As-built-minus analysis (Chehayeb et
al, 1995)

Window Analysis Galloway and Nielsen (1990); Contemporaneous Period Analysis

Bordoli and Baldwin (1998); (Schumacher, 1995; Lucas, 2002)
Finke (1999); Lovejoy (2004); Snapshot (Alkass et al., 1995;
Pickavance (2005) 1996)
Periodic update analysis
(Chehayeb et al., 1995)
Watershed (Pickavance, 2005)

Time Impact Leary and Bramble (1988); End of every delay analysis
Analysis Alkass et al. (1996); Pickavance (Chehayeb et al, 1995)
(2005). Chronological and cumulative
approach (Wickwire and Groff, 2004)

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5.3.1 Differences between the methodologies

The methodologies differ from each other based on the type of schedule techniques

they require, the baseline schedule used and the mode of application. Based on these

criteria, the various DAMs can be classified as shown in Figure 5.2.

Figure 5.2 DAMs classification

On the type of schedule technique used, the methodologies can be grouped as CPM-

based techniques and non CPM-based techniques. The former are more popular and

highly recognised because of the numerous advantages of CPM in DA (see Section

4.2.1). On the other hand the non-CPM based techniques, particularly bar charts, are

of limited help in proving the impact of delays because of their inability to show the

true effects of delays on project completion (Wickwire and Groff, 2004). However,

they can be successfully used to analyse some types of delay claims particularly those

involving fewer activities and simple relationships (Pickavance, 2005).

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According to Wickwire et al. (1989), the baseline or reference point used in delay

analysis varies for the various methodologies depending on the choice between the

following three options:

(i) Forward pricing – valuing the delay at its inception by impacting the

contractor’s baseline programme with the delaying events. Methodologies

relying on such analysis include the impacted as-planned and the as-planned

but for methods;

(ii) Contemporaneous pricing – valuing the delay as it is occurring or immediately

after it has occurred. Methodologies for performing this include the

Contemporaneous Period Analysis and the Time impact analysis.

(iii) Hindsight pricing – determining and valuing the delay after the project is

completed. This is performed using methodologies such as Collapsed as-built,

As-planned vr as-built and the Window analysis.

These options are highly influenced by the timing of the analysis. However, in

practice methodologies suitable for performing forward and contemporaneous pricing

(i.e. prospective analysis) can also be used for hindsight pricing (retrospective

analysis). In this case the analysts would have the full benefit of hindsight as the

analysis will be carried out after the fact.

The mode of application of the methodologies varies on three different modes: direct

analysis, subtractive simulation and additive simulation.

Direct analysis

This involves the analyst examining the schedules as it is without carrying out any

major adjustments or evaluations on the schedule. The methodologies using this type

98
of analysis are therefore relatively easy, simple and less expensive to implement.

Examples include As-planned vrs as-built, Net impact and Global impact.

Subtractive simulation

This mode entails removing the delays of each party from the as-built programme to

establish their effects on the completion date of the project. There are two main ways

by which the delays can be removed (Trauner, 1990): removing all the delays in one

go from a single as-built schedule (i.e. single stage simulation) or removing the delays

in stages from multiple schedules (multistage simulation). The collapsed as-built

method is an example of this type of simulation.

Additive simulation

Under this mode, the analysts formulate the delays as activities and add them to a

schedule (the baseline programme or its updates) to establish their effects on the

project completion date. As in the subtractive method, the additions can also be done

in a single stage or multi-stages. Methods falling under this type of analysis are the

impacted as-planned, as-planned but for, window analysis and time impact analysis.

Based on these different modes of operations, the level of analysis detail required

varies for the various methodologies. Methodologies that make use of direct analysis

are therefore often termed “simplistic methods” while those involving extensive

modifications of the schedules as in additive and subtractive simulations are termed

“sophisticated methods” (Alkass et al., 1996). The latter groups tend to give more

accurate results than the former but they require more expense, time, skills, resources

and project records to operate (Lovejoy, 2004). These characteristics of the

methodologies are illustrated in Figure 5.3.

99
 Non CPM-based
Techniques CPM based Techniques

Time Impact
Analysis
Window
Analysis

Collapsed
As-built
Impacted As
Planned

As planned
vrs As built

Net Impact

Global
Impact

Cost, Time, Skills, Resources and Records required to operate method

Figure 5.3 Characteristics of DAMs

5.3.2 Brief description of the various DAMs

Having highlighted the various differences between the methods, this section

concentrates on how each is utilised including their strengths and weaknesses.

The S curve

This methodology analyses delay based on the relationship between cost and time. It

involves developing a time/cost S-curve for the original plan together with the S-

curve representing actual income. The actual S-curve must exclude any cost for

additional works so that comparison of the two curves is valid. The amount of delay at

any point along the actual curve is the horizontal distance between these curves at this

point (Rubin et al., 1999). The limitations of this technique are as follows:

it does not identify and track the activities on the critical path;

100
 the original planned S-curve might not be accurate due to “front end loading” or

other factors;

payments for stored materials and equipment could result in misleading

progress of an updated S-curve.

Global Impact technique

This is a relatively simple approach of analysing the impact of delay on projects. All

the delay events are first shown on a summary bar chart by determining their start and

finish dates. The total project delay is then calculated to be the sum total of the

durations of all delaying events (Alkass et al., 1996; Pinnell, 1998; Bramble and

Callahan, 2000). Though this technique provides a simple and clear statement of the

amount of delay that is incurred, it has a major limitation: it does not consider

concurrent delays and the actual delay types that took place presuming that all delays

automatically caused project delay.

Net Impact technique

This is an improvement on the preceding methodology to deal with the problem of

concurrency. Under this technique, all delays are plotted on an as-built bar chart

schedule where the actual durations, start and finish dates of activities are shown

(Leary and Bramble, 1988). By this, only the net effect of all the delays is depicted

and the amount of delay to the project is the difference between the as-planned and

the as-built completion dates. The limitation of the methodology is that it does not

scrutinize delay types and could lead to overstatement of the amount of delays having

an effect on the project completion date (Alkass et al., 1996).

101
The major limitation common to the above three methodologies is that because CPM

network is not used, float, criticality and interdependencies of activities are not readily

apparent making it difficult to determine the true impact of delays. For this reason, the

use of these methodologies is generally discouraged by most practitioners (SCL,

2002; Wickwire and Groff, 2004).

As-planned vs. As-built

This methodology simply compares the activities of the original CPM baseline

schedule with those of the as-built schedule for detailed assessment of the delays that

occurred. The main advantages of this methodology are that: it is relatively

inexpensive, simple and easy to use or understand (Lovejoy, 2004). Its limitations

include failure to consider changes in the critical path and inability to deal with

complex delay situations (Stumpf, 2000; Zack, 2001).

Impacted As-planned

This methodology involves incorporating delays encountered as activities into as-

planned CPM schedule to demonstrate how a project completion date is being delayed

by those delays. The amount of project delay due to each delaying event is the

difference between the schedules completion dates before and after the addition

(Trauner, 1990; Pickavance, 2005). Although this methodology does not need an as-

built schedule to operate, it has major drawbacks such as failure to consider any

changes in the critical path and the assumption that the planned construction sequence

remains valid (Stumpf, 2000; Zack, 2001; Wickwire and Groff 2004).

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Collapsed As-built

This methodology first creates an as-built CPM schedule including all the delays

encountered. Delays are then removed from the schedule to create a ‘collapsed’ as-

built schedule, which indicates how the project would have progressed but for those

delays. The advantage with this approach includes producing results of good accuracy

(Lovejoy, 2004). Its limitations, however, include: ignoring any changes in the critical

path and the great deal of effort required in identifying the as-built critical path (Zack,

2001).

Window Analysis

In this methodology, the total project duration as given by as-built CPM schedule is

first divided into a number of time periods or ‘windows’. The dates defining the

boundaries of these windows are often determined by major project milestones,

significant changes in the critical path, occurrence of major delay events and dates for

the issue of schedule revisions or updates. These factors determine the number and

durations of the windows for the whole project duration. The more windows there are

or the shorter their durations, the better the accuracy of the analysis (Finke, 1999;

Hegazy and Zhang, 2005).

The delay analysis begins first by updating the schedule within the first window using

as-built information including all the delays encountered in that period, while

maintaining the remaining as-planned schedule beyond this window. The difference

between the project completion date of the schedule resulting from this and that prior

to the review process gives the amount of project delay as a result of the delays within

the first window. This analysis is repeated successively for each of the remaining

103
windows to determine the effect of all other delay events on project completion. The

main strength of this methodology is its ability to take care of the dynamic nature of

the critical path. However, it is usually more expensive due to the amount of time and

effort needed to perform it (Zack, 2001).

Time Impact Analysis

This methodology is a variant of the window technique described above, except that

in this, the analyst concentrates on a specific delay or delaying event not on time

periods containing delays or delaying events (Alkass et al., 1996). The approach

evaluates the effects of delays chronologically, starting with the first delay event, by

incorporating each delay (sometimes using a ‘fragnet’ or sub networks) into an

updated CPM baseline schedule that represents the actual status of the project before

the advent of the delay. The amount of project delay caused by each of the delaying

events is successively determined by computing the difference between project

completion date of the schedule resulting from the addition of each delay and that

prior to the addition. This approach developed out of its original purpose of

prospectively analysing, on an ongoing basis, the effects of changes to the project.

Prior to the 1980s, this traditional use of Time Impact Analysis was a requirement in

some US federal government contracts (Wickwire, et al., 1989; Wickwire et al.,

1991). The approach has significant merit making it probably the most reliable

technique (SCL, 2002). However, it is time consuming and costly to operate,

particularly in situations where large number of delaying events are involved.

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5.3.3 Appropriate use of the methodologies

The different set of procedures and assumptions required by each methodology, have

resulted in them producing different results of staggeringly different levels of

accuracy for any given claims situation (Alkass et al., 1996; Bubshait and

Cuningham, 1998; Stumpf, 2000). In addition, there is currently no industry-wide

agreement on which is the most appropriate methodology to use for delay claims

analysis. This is evident by the diverse views among researchers and practitioners on

four common methodologies as shown in Table 5.2 (compiled by Arditi and

Pattanakitchamroon (2006)). The series of debates organised by SCL, dubbed “Great

Delay Analysis Debate”, which was first presented to an audience of over 300 in

London and subsequently in Scotland, USA and Dubai also bear testimony to such

different views. These debates involved four participants each speaking in favour of

one of the four common methodologies with reference to a hypothetical construction

scenario. Voting is subsequently carried out as to the most appropriate methodology

that should be applied to the assumed facts. In the London debate, for instance, no

consensus was reached as to the correct method, with votes splitting into four

significant minorities (SCL, 2006).

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 Table 5.2 Comments on DAMs compiled from the literature (1987–2004) (source: Arditi and Pattanakitchamroon, 2006)
References Delay analysis methods
As-planned vs. As-built Impacted As-planned Collapsed As-built Time Impact Analysis
Sandlin et al.(2004) N/A Spurious results Erroneous evaluation Overcomes some disadvantages of
others
Lovejoy (2004) Fair Good Excellent Very good
Sgarlata and Brasco ( 2004) Worthy method N/A Most acceptable by courts Useful for prospective analyses, but
minimal utility supporting claims
Gothand (2003) Major drawbacks Major drawbacks Major drawbacks Reliable
SCL (2002) Simple, limited Simple, limited Suitable for some situations, Most reliable when available
subjective
Harris and Scott (2001) Least popular N/A Fair, most accepted Make some use by claims consultants
Zack (2001) Critical flaws Critical flaws Unreliable, easy to manipulate Accurate but expensive
Stumpf (2000) Can be challenged Easy to prepare, fundamental flaws Easy to prepare, fundamental flaws Reliable, but time consuming
Contemporaneous basis, but no future
Fruchtman (2000) Reliable Simple, limited No baseline needed, limited
changes considered
Finke (1999) and (1997b) N/A Less reflective of actual events Less reflective of actual events Most reasonable and accurate
Zack (1999) Unreliable Many flaws, widely discarded Suitable Suitable
Useful in some situations but easy Dependent on baseline schedule,
McCullough (1999) Not acceptable Not acceptable
to manipulate accurate
Bubshait and Cunningham Acceptable, dependent on Acceptable, dependent on Acceptable, dependent on Acceptable, dependent on availability
(1998) availability of data availability of data availability of data of data
Simple, consistently rejected by Dependent on quality of as-built Dependent on how the method is
Levin (1998) N/A
courts schedule applied
Sound, but ignores changes of Some drawbacks/propose modified
Alkass et al. (1996) N/A Some major problems
critical paths method
Zafar (1996) Reliable Fault analysis Fault analysis N/A
Potential shortcoming, one-sided
Schumacher (1995) N/A Overcome some shortcomings Effective method
analysis
Most practical in some
Baram (1994) Dependent on Dependent on Most desirable approach
circumstances
Wickwire et al. (1991) N/A “Great lie” Alive and well Recommended
Acceptable, dependent on Acceptable, dependent on Acceptable, dependent on
Bramble and Callahan (1987) N/A
availability of data availability of data availability of data

106
Due to these different perceptions, the appropriateness of the methodology applied in

producing a delay claim is therefore often hotly contested. For example, in Balfour

Beatty Construction Ltd v The Mayor and Burgesses of the London Borough of

Lambeth (2002 1 BLR 288), the defendant challenged the adjudicator’s decision in

court for, among others, not having given any opportunity to the parties to comment

on the appropriateness of the methodology which the adjudicator had adopted in

determining extensions of time and to seek their observations as to its use. His Honour

Judge Humphrey Lloyd QC stated that the adjudicator ought to have informed both

parties of the methodology that he intended to adopt and sought their observations on

its appropriateness. He held that, in the light of such serious omissions, he could not

uphold the decision. Similarly in Try Construction Limited v Eton Town House Group

(2003) EWHC60 (TCC), the defendant challenged the Adjudicator for using a

methodology that it did not have a chance to consider.

The factors that influence the selection of the appropriate methodologies are therefore

a matter of the greatest importance. Notwithstanding this, the UK courts have not

generally gone into any great depth as to what method of proof is acceptable in

particular circumstances or, when a method of analysis has not been accepted, the

reasons for its rejection (Pickavance, 2005). A review of delay analysis literature

disclosed only three major initiatives aimed at developing knowledge and

understanding of the way analysts should select from existing DAMs for any given

delay problem. First, Bubshait and Cuningham (1998) assessed the reliability of three

of the existing methods using a case study and came to the conclusion that none of the

methods is perfect and that the best method should be chosen based upon the time and

resources available and the accessibility of project documentation. Second, in a survey

107
by Harris and Scott (2001) on how UK professionals deal with claims, respondents

were generally unwilling to indicate their preference to four existing DAMs, with the

reason that their choice would be dictated by the conditions of the claims at hand. The

study, however, did not investigate the conditions that they consider important in this

respect. Finally, the SCL’s protocol (2002) has identified a number of factors that

analysts should look out for in considering a methodology. These are: the relevant

conditions of contract; the nature of the causative events; the value of the dispute; the

time available; the records available; the programme information available and the

programmer’s skill level and familiarity with the project. Similar factors have also

been reviewed recently by Arditi and Pattanakitchamroon (2006).

From the foregoing, the general view has been that no single methodology is suitable

for all claims situations and that the most appropriate methodology for any situation

should be selected based on a number of factors or criteria. These criteria, as reported

in the literature, are shown in Table 5.3. Although these can help in the selection of

appropriate DAM, the limitation is that they are qualitative, subjective and imprecise

in nature, making their use in methodology selection open to challenge. The absence

of acceptable guidelines or standards for assisting practitioners in the use of these

criteria in methodology selection means that analysts’ choice will often be made

based on methodologies that will suit their respective positions. This is a potential

source of disputes requiring that more attention be given to it.

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 Table 5.3 Factors influencing the selection of DAM (Braimah and Ndekugri, 2007)
Factor Literature source
Leary and Colin Finke Bubshait Bramble SCL Pickavance
Bramble and Retik (1997b) and and Callahan (2002) (2005)
(1988) (1997) Cunningham (2000)
(1998)
Records availability 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Baseline programme 9 9 9 9
availability
Nature of baseline 9 9 9 9
programme
Updated programme 9 9 9 9
availability
Reason for the delay 9 9 9
analysis
Applicable legislation 9

The form of contract 9 9 9 9

Cost of using the 9 9 9 9
technique
Nature of the delaying 9 9 9
events
Skills of the analyst 9 9 9
The amount in dispute 9 9
The number of 9 9
delaying events

5.4 Disruption Analysis Methodologies (DSAM)

Unlike pure delay, disruption analysis involves the claimant proving that

inefficiencies or loss in productivity were suffered as a result of delays and/or

disruptions complained of. Analysing project disruptions for proper quantification and

allocation of the lost productivity is, however, often recognised as a difficult

undertaking (Schwartzkopf, 1995; Ibbs, 1997). A major reason for the difficulty is the

inherent complicated nature of labour productivity, which varies due to variability of

human responses to different working conditions. The conditions can be either task-

related factors, such as type of work being performed, the resources assigned and the

means and method used to perform the task, or non-task related (external) such as

109
crowding, adverse weather, out-of-sequence work, etc. These are often attributable to

multiple events and project participants (Leonard et al., 1988; Hanna and Heale,

1994). As Zink (1990) puts it: The responsibility for lost efficiency rarely rests with

one side or the other of the claim. It is generally recognized that some fault for labour

inefficiency will rest with both parties. The event sometimes occur simultaneously

making it more difficult to unravel and sort out clearly what is often a tangled web or

‘spaghetti’ of interrelated issues and problems into their individual causes and effects.

There are various methodologies available for analysing disruption. Like DAMs, most

of these methodologies are referred to by different nomenclature among practitioners

as shown in Table 5.4.

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 Table 5.4 Existing DSAM
Common name Alternative names
Total Cost Global method (SCL, 2002; Pickavance, 2005)
( Brunies, 1988; Kallo; 1996a; Finke, Rolled up claim ( Pickavance, 2005)
1998a;Bramble and Callahan, 2000; Jones,
2001; Klanac and Nelson, 2004)

Modified Total Cost Adjusted Total cost (Brunies, 1988)

(Brunies, 1988; Kallo; 1996a; Bramble
and Callahan, 2000; Jones, 2001; Klanac
and Nelson, 2004)

Measured Mile Technique Differential Cost Method/Calculation

(Zink, 1986, 1990; Schwartzkopf et al., (Brunies, 1988; Moselhi et al. 1991)
1992; Schwartzkopf , 1995; SCL, 2002; Productivity Comparison Method (Shea,
Jones, 2001; Klanac and Nelson, 2004; 1989);
Pickavance, 2005) Measured Productivity Method (Wickwire et
al. 1991; Bramble and Callahan, 2000)
Comparison of Productivity Levels (Kallo;
1996a)
Cause-and-Effect Method (Kallo; 1996a)
Differential Studies ( Klanac and Nelson,
2004)

Industry Studies and Guidelines Estimating (Brunies, 1988)

( Klanac and Nelson, 2004) Estimated Evaluation Method (Shea, 1989);
Productivity Factors (Kallo; 1996a)
Factor-Based Methods (Finke, 1998a)
Trade Publications (Bramble and Callahan,
2000)
Model Productivity Curves and Factors
(SCL, 2002)
Industry Standards ( Schwartzkopf et al.,
1992)

Jury Verdict
(Kallo; 1996a; Jones, 2001; Klanac and
Nelson, 2004)

Time and Motions Studies

(Pickavance, 2007)

Earned Value Management Earned value analysis (Boyle, 2007)

(Schwartzkopf, 1995; McCally, 1999)
System Dynamic Modelling
(Ackermann et al., 1997; William et al.,
2003; Cooper et al., 2004; Eden et al.,
2004)

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The following defines and discusses each of the methodology with respect to how

they are employed and their strengths and weaknesses.

5.4.1 The Measured Mile Technique

This method compares actual productivity of impacted operation with actual

productivity achieved while doing the same work but in an un-impacted mode (Zink,

1986). By this, control figures come from the project itself eliminating disputes over

the validity of cost estimates, or factors that may have impacted productivity due to no

fault of the employer. The standards that have to be satisfied for the appropriate use of

this method include (Brunies, 1988; Loulakis and Santiago, 1999):

the work performed during the mile should be substantially similar in type,

nature, and complexity to the work that was affected;

the composition and level of skill of the crews should be comparable;

the measured mile should represent reasonably attainable labour productivity

levels;

the difference between the actual productivity of the affected items and the

‘normal’ productivity resulted solely from the causes under examination;

the “normal” productivity of the unaffected items allows for all applicable risks

and/or inherits shortcomings of the contractor and represents a sufficiently high

percentage of the item(s) of work under examination to generate reasonable

confidence in the comparison.

Although theoretically the measured mile technique appears simple, there are a

number of shortcomings affecting their use in practice including:

112
 considerable amount of investigation required to establish the cause-and-effect

relationship prescribed by this method (Brunies, 1988; Ibbs and Liu, 2005);

the analysis will generally be based on calculations performed after the fact

making it inapplicable for prospective analysis of disruption particularly when

negotiating changes.

the assumption that the future progress of the project will be a linear

extrapolation of the measure mile (Zink, 1986);

it may be difficult to find un-impacted parts particularly when disruptions to the

work are so pervasive (Ibbs and Liu, 2005).

5.4.2 Industry Studies and Guidelines

Researchers and various organisations such as the US Corps of Engineers, National

Electrical Contractors Association of America, Mechanical Contractors’ Association

of America (MCAA) have developed factors and statistical model of productivity

curves for estimating productivity losses. These have been developed for productivity

factors like overtime, overmanning, weather, learning curve and change orders. The

advantage of this method over the others is that it allows a prediction of the most

likely losses when negotiating changes prospectively. It is also very useful in

evaluating lost productivity resulting from multiple impacts by enabling the analyst to

isolate certain impact events and assign a particular value to that event (Klanac and

Nelson, 2004). However, its limitations include:

the data collection of these studies were limited to specific project environment

and to a number of specific trades thus raising questions on their general

applicability;

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 the sources of the data for some of the studies are not revealed suggesting that

they may be anecdotal and judgemental (Ibbs, 2005);

the quality of the data in respect of some studies are doubtful, for example, that

of the overtime charts produced by MCAA and AACE (Brunies and Emir,

2001);

the objectivity of most of the guidelines are questionable because they were

developed by parties with vested interests without the involvement of the other

project party; and

Most of the guidelines are silent on how they should be properly used as terms

such as “minor” and “severe”, which are subjective, are not defined in the guide

(e.g. the MCAA guidelines).

5.4.3 Total Cost Method

Under this method the claimant entitlement is estimated as the difference between the

actual cost and the contractual cost without establishing any causal link between the

reason for their entitlement and the quantity of the corresponding loss. It can thus hide

losses not caused by the employer such as those resulting from the contractor’s own

poor project management or bidding errors. This has been its main criticism making it

the least favoured method. However, because construction projects can generate very

complex set of interacting activities, which are impossible or impracticable to separate

into their individual causes and effects, there has been a long-standing debate over the

acceptance or rejection of claims produced using this method. Earlier UK cases

dealing with global claims are: J. Crosby & Sons Ltd v Portland Urban District

Council (1967) 5 BLR 121 and London Borough of Merton v Stanley Hugh Leach Ltd

(1985) 32 BLR 51. The common interpretation of these cases is that where it may be

114
difficult to make accurate apportionment of the total claims, it may be proper for an

arbitrator to make individual financial awards in respect of claims which can

conveniently be dealt with in isolation and a supplementary award in respect of the

remainder of these claims as a composite whole (Brown, 1995; Gaitskell, 2003).

However, the Privy Council’s decision in the Hong Kong case of Wharf properties

Ltd and Another v Eric Cummins Associates and Others (1991) 52 BLR 8, in which

the pleading was struck out due to the failure of the claimant to particularise it, has

been interpreted by some as a set back in the judicial approval of the global claims

approach. Following this decision, employers facing global claims often ask tribunals

to strike them out. Subsequent cases, however, suggest that the courts have been more

reticent about such applications although they do not accept incomplete claims. In the

cases of: Mid Glamorgan County Council v J Devonald Williams & Partners (1992) 8

Con LJ 61; Imperial Chemical Industries Plc v Bovis Construction Limited and

Others (1992) CILL 776; and British Airways Pension Trustees Ltd v Sir Robert

McAlpine & Sons Ltd (1994) 72 BLR 31, the judges rejected the defendant’s

application to strike out the claims which were pleaded on global basis.

The decision in the most recent case of John Doyle Construction Ltd v Laing

Management (Scotland) Ltd (2004) BLR 295 further reinforces the lenient stand taken

by the courts on global claims. Laing were management contractors who employed

Doyle as works package contractors in respect of the construction of a new corporate

headquarters for Scottish widows. Doyle’s claim for an extension of time plus loss

and expense was made on global basis giving the reason that it was not possible to

particularise it. Laing therefore sought to have the claim as pleaded struck out before

trial but the judge allowed it to proceed to trail. Detailed analysis of the decision is not

within the ambit of this thesis but a common interpretation has been that the decision

115
is to a greater or lesser extent an encouragement of the global claims approach. This

case was approved by the TCC in Skanska Construction UK Ltd v Egger (Barony) Ltd

2004 EWHC 1748 (TCC). The court held that global claims would be valid provided

all the delays were caused by the defendant. Reflecting on the various cases, the

current position on global claims in the UK can be summed-up as follows:

Claimants are required to establish separately the causal link between each

causal event and each amount of claim, although such separation may be

difficult.

The inability of the claimant to objectively identify each of the financial

consequences of each and every event giving rise to the claim does not allow the

responsible party to escape paying the damages.

A global claim is likely to fail if the defendant’s events causing the alleged loss

are shown to be not significant.

On the contrary, the conditions for the acceptance of global claims are more explicitly

defined in the US. These conditions, identified based on US courts decisions include

satisfying the following proof (Brunies, 1988; Kallo, 1996a; Finke, 1998a):

the contractor’s tender or estimate was reasonable;

the actual cost is fair and reasonable under the circumstances;

the contractor must established that it was not responsible for any part of the

increased cost;

there is no other practical method available to quantify the damages with

reasonable degree of accuracy.

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5.4.4 Modified total cost approach

This method is similar to the total cost except that in this approach the contractor’s bid

estimate is adjusted to account for activities that were underbid or deemed to be his

responsibility. The total cost differential is thus modified to eliminate cost factors that

are the responsibility of the contractor and also correct inaccuracies in the original

estimate. This makes the approach a more reliable method than the total cost method.

In certain instances, the project is reanalysed retrospectively to determine what the

project should have cost as a baseline instead of relying on the original estimate or its

adjusted value. The method is correctly termed “should have approach” in such a

situation (Shea, 1989).

5.4.5 Jury Verdict

This method affords the courts and other triers-of-fact (e.g. arbitrators) the discretion

to determine recoverable disruption damages. They usually use evidence submitted in

support of other quantification methods such as the total cost method and industry

standards to derive a jury verdict calculation (Kallo, 1996a; Bramble and Callahan,

2000). Therefore unlike the other methods, this methodology is not available for

contractors to use in making claims. The main weakness of it has been owners

contending the approach to be nothing more than a guess regarding what the

contractors damages are and freeing the contractor from its normal and customary

burden of proving damages (Shea, 1989). The approach is often seen as last resort

when there is clear evidence of entitlement to compensation but the amount of

damages to be awarded have not been shown with specificity (Klanac and Nelson,

2004). This method is not applicable in the UK but in the US.

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5.4.6 Time and Motion Studies

Although this approach is commonly used in the manufacturing industries for

checking the efficiency of the work method, equipment used, and the worker, its

application in construction claims is relative new. It was employed effectively and

approved by the court in the US case of Peter Kiewit Sons’ Co. v. Summit

Construction Co. 422 F.2d 242 (8th Cir. 1969). The method involves determining the

amount of time model activities should reasonably take to accomplish in like

conditions based on an analyst making sample observations as to how work is

performed on site (Pickavance, 2005). Contractors claiming for productivity loss may

consider setting up such studies to measure increases in labour costs and equipment

inefficiencies. All conditions experienced by the contractor on the job together with

the conditions attributable to disruption should be simulated preferably at the actual

job site if possible.

5.4.7 System Dynamics Modelling Approach

System dynamic models, widely used in various disciplines of project management,

has also found application in the prove of DD claims (Ackermann et al., 1997;

William et al., 2003; Cooper et al., 2004; Eden et al., 2004). In this application, cause

and effect structure of a dynamic model is developed and the mechanism by which

project disruption occurs is traced. The model simulates, day by day, the unfolding of

the project so that the impact of events at one stage of the project feed forward to their

longer-term consequences. A particular significance of this model is the ability to

replicate the impact of vicious cycles caused by management mitigation actions taken

to accelerate the project (Eden et al., 2004). It also allows a wide variety of “what if”

scenarios to be assessed. However, the use of it in practice is limited because they

118
require significant time from experience modelers to execute (Cooper et al., 2004).

This is partly due to the sophisticated nature of the method and the extensive research

required in discovering the categories of events that disrupt or delay tasks on the

project (Eden et al., 2004).

5.4.8 Earned Value Management

Earned Value Management (EVM) is a cost control system that incorporates the

organised components of the project’s schedule, budget estimate and scope of work

into a process by which the project’s forecasted costs at the end of the project can be

more readily determined (Fleming and Koppelman, 2002; Warhoe, 2004). To achieve

this, EVM employs three dimensional measurement of project performance: the

Budgeted Cost of Work Schedule (BCWS), Budgeted Cost of Work Performed

(BCWP) and Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP). These dimensions are often

shown in cumulative curves on the same diagram; both BCWP and ACWP curves are

only shown as far the project has progressed over time. By overlaying these curves, a

profile of changing cost and time is shown reflecting changes in resource levels,

resource costs, activity durations, scope or logic changes.

To perform disruption analysis using EVM, changes in the forecasts, which are often

due to reduction in productivity, are related to certain events using usual

contemporaneous record sources. The difference between planned and actual

productivity of the causative events in terms of earned value is then quantified

(Schwartzkopf, 1995; McCally, 1999). The limitation of this methodology is that it

relies on the availability of accurate progress and cost information, which are often

not available.

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5.4.9 Comments on the acceptability of the various DSAMs

The common aim of all the methodologies is to determine among others the reduction

in productivity from what a contractor would have achieved but-for an employer-

caused delay and/or disruption. However, the various methods attempt to accomplish

this by different approaches as discussed in the previous section. The approaches vary

mainly base on different sources of information they rely on for the analysis as

indicated in Figure 5.4.

Figure 5.4 Sources of data relied on by various DSAMs

The strengths of the various methods differ depending on the nature and sources of

the data relied on. As a result their use in a given claims situation generate different

results of different levels of accuracy (Schwartzkopf, 1995). According to

Schwartzkopf et al. (1992), no method is generally acceptable for use in all cases,

although some are preferred over others. Table 5.5 shows a summary of the views of

120
researchers and practitioners on the most commented upon DSAM with respect to

their acceptability or reliability. These were extracted from various research papers

and text books published from 1988-2006 and thus gives a good representation of

what is currently available on this subject with regard to the reliability of the

methodologies. The authors’ views on the methodologies are varied suggesting

that none of the methodologies is perfect even though some are more reliable than

others under certain circumstances. The views of most of the authors were based on

US case law. In spite of this, the comments are quite relevant to UK practitioners

because the requirement in proving cause-effect relationships does not substantially

differ from the legal view point of the two countries.

It appears from the table that the most preferred or acceptable methodology is the

Measured Mile technique while the least preferred methodology appears to be the

total cost.

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Table 5.5 Comments on DSAMs compiled from the literature (1987–2004)
References Disruption analysis methodologies
Total cost Modified total cost Measured Mile Industry studies and guidelines Jury verdict
Brunies (1988) Contractor’s preference Improved form of Classical approach Most enlightened method for N/A
and acceptable if neither total cost approach analysing disruption
measured mile and prospectively or retrospectively
estimating method cannot if the use Measured Mile is not
be used practicable
Zink (1990), N/A N/A Some limitations; an N/A N/A
Norfleet (2005) improved version
proposed
Shea (1989) To be used as last resort More accurate and Most acceptable method Not as accurate as measured mile Acceptable if court finds
preferable to Total but useful in proving the claimants approach to be
Cost existence of productivity losses unacceptable
Schwartzkopf The least widely accepted More reliable than Most widely accepted Do not give conclusive results N/A
(1992) method but appears to be total cost as it appears method
gaining acceptance by the to be more readily
courts accepted by the courts
Kallo (1996a) Generally viewed with More credible than Most acceptable method Acceptable if its use is supported Useful if contractor is clearly
scepticism and acceptable Total cost method by corroborative evidence entitled to cost compensation
by the courts under strict but has no basis for the amount
conditions that is claimed.
Finke (1998a) Major weakness but N/A Preferred over total cost They typically do not yield N/A
preferred by contractors but can only be used activity-specific results
retrospectively
Emir (1999) Least favoured Least favoured Superior method N/A N/A
Jones (2001) Acceptable based upon Next to measured Most acceptable N/A Least favoured; useful if
certain conditions mile in terms of approach causation is established but
reliability and judicial amount of damages cannot be
acceptance ascertained with certainty
SCL (2002) Rarely accepted by the N/A Most appropriate method Might be acceptable if measured N/A
courts mile approach cannot be used
Presnell (2003) Inaccurate method Inaccurate method Most credible and widely Inaccurate method N/A
accepted
Gulezian and Do not consider causal Considers causal Based on actual cost data Not based on the project about Educated guess based on
Samelian (2003) factors for which the factors which a claim is made available information in the
owner is not responsible absence of more reliable
evidence
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Table 5.5 Cont.

Klanac and Nelson Significant shortcomings so Significant shortcomings Most reliable Has certain inherent Useful if other methods
(2004) should be a last resort method so should be a last resort problems but has positive are not available but
method applications entitlement is clear
Eden et al. (2004) N/A N/A Most popular but unreliable;
proposed system dynamic
approach
Ibbs and Liu (2005) N/A N/A Some limitations; proposed Somewhat useful
improved version
Pickavance (2005) Permissible if it is More acceptable than Most widely accepted Useful in costing a N/A
impracticable to segregate the total cost method variation prospectively.
claims from other For guidance only when
construction cost used in retrospective
analysis

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5.5 Summary

This chapter has reviewed the relevant literature on methodologies for analysing DD

claims. The review covered many aspects of these methodologies including: their

differences, how they are use, their strengths and weaknesses and factors affecting

their use. The appropriate use of these methodologies in DD claims was also

highlighted. The findings from the review are summarised as follows:

(a) There are a number of methodologies available for analysing delays and these are

known by different terminologies among practitioners and researchers. The

methodologies differ from each other based on the type of schedule techniques

required, the baseline schedule used and the mode of application in their use.

They produce different results of staggeringly different levels of accuracy when

applied to a given claims situation.

(b) None of the methodologies is perfect as each has its own strengths and

weaknesses. The more sophisticated methodologies are regarded as more reliable

than the simplistic ones, though the former requires more expense, time, skills,

resources and project records to operate than the later.

(c) No single DAM is universally acceptable for all claims situations. The most

appropriate methodology for any given situation depends on a number of factors.

Even though these factors have been identified by practitioners and researchers

as essential for the selection of a methodology, they are qualitative, subjective

and imprecise in nature, making their use in methodology selection open to

challenge.

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(d) Like DAMs, the methodologies for analysing disruptions are many and referred

to by different names amongst practitioners. They vary based on the different

sources of information each methodology relies on for the analysis.

(e) Similar to DAMs, none of the DSAM methodologies is perfect even though

some are more reliable than others under certain circumstances. Their

acceptability or reliability depends upon the situation of the disruption claims at

hand.

The above findings formed the basis of the empirical study into the current use of

these methodologies by industry practitioners. The study employed a nationwide-

survey and its results are reported in the next chapter.

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 CHAPTER SIX

6 SURVEY ON METHODLOGIES FOR ANALYSING DD CLAIMS

6.1 Introduction

This survey employed two separate questionnaires in collecting data on DD claims

analysis practice from contracting and consulting organisations across the UK,

although the outline of these questionnaire were similar. Detailed information on the

design of the questionnaire, research questions it addresses and sampling of the

organisations are presented in Chapter 2. The questions contained in the questionnaire

were informed by the review of the literature reported in Chapters 3, 4 and 5. This

chapter presents the results and analyses the responses to individual questions in the

light of comments made on DDA by researchers and experts. The rest of this chapter

was written, grouping these under the following headings: (i) Survey response (ii)

Characteristics of the respondents and their organisations (iii) Timing of DD claims

submissions and assessment (iv) Extent of disputes on DD claims (v) Reasons for

disputes over DD claims (vi) Involvement in DDA (vii) Perceptions on DAMs – level

of awareness, use and reliability, obstacles to their use and factors influencing their

selections (viii) Perceptions on DSAMs- level of awareness, use, and reliability. Most

of these sections were considered separately for contractors and consultants.

6.2 Survey response

Out of the 300 questionnaires sent out, a total of 156 questionnaires were returned of

which only 130 (63 from Contractors and 67 from consultants) were properly

completed that could be used for analysis. The other 26 respondents stated either that

it was company policy to decline to respond to surveys or have little experience in DD

126
claims analysis. This represents a response rate of 21% and 22% respectively for

construction and consulting firms, which is within the expected range of (20-40)%

typical of similar surveys (Furtrell, 1994).

6.3 Characteristics of the respondents and their organisations

Tables 6.1 and 6.2 respectively shows the distribution profile of respondents’

organisations in terms of type and size and their designations for the construction and

consulting firms. The response from construction organisation was fairly uniformly

distributed over three main contracting groups, with those involved in both building

and civil engineering projects having the greatest percentage followed by those

involved in only civil engineering projects. The lowest percentage came from those

involved in only building projects.

Table 6.1 Construction organisation response

Type of organisation Percent*
Building contracting only 27.0
Building and Civil Engineering contracting 39.7
Civil Engineering contracting only 33.3

Organisation Annual Turnover (£m)

<5 7.9
5 – 25 25.4
26 – 100 30.2
>100 36.5

Respondent designation
Planning Engineer 15.9
Commercial Manager /Quantity Surveyor 50.8
Project/Site Manager 9.5
External Claims Consultant 6.3
Managing Director 11.1
Contracts Director 6.3
* of the total response from construction firms

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On the other hand, the response from consulting organisations was nonuniformly

distributed with majority coming from quantity surveying and claims consulting

firms. Engineering and Architectural firms were not well represented. This low

response is probably because they do not actively carry out most delay claims

assessments by themselves as discussed in later section of this chapter.

Table 6.2 Consulting organisation response

Type of organisation Percent*
Firm of Architects 9.0
Firm of Engineers 14.9
Firm of Quantity Surveyors 41.8
Firm of claims consultants 34.3

Organisation Annual Turnover (£m)

<5 43.3
5 – 25 32.8
26 – 100 9.0
>100 14.9

Respondent designation
Planning Engineer 3.0
Project Quantity Surveyor 35.8
Project Architect/ Engineer 25.4
External Claims Consultant 29.8
Managing Director/ Partner 6.0
* of the total response from consulting firms

With regard to the size of the organisations, four groups were identified based on their

annual turnovers. Whilst this shows that the survey covered a wide spectrum of

construction organisations, the distribution of the responses was not uniform. The

average annual turnover of the organisations was £55million suggesting that the views

sought were from medium to large construction organisations.

128
The designations of the respondents cover a wide variety of professions, which are

relevant to DD claims analysis. The majority of them have been acting as Commercial

Managers or Quantity Surveyors for employers and contractors with some occupying

senior management positions.

Table 6.3 shows their experiences with regard to a number of relevant functions.

Table 6.3 Experience of respondents

Function Years of experience Mean Std.
0 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-30 >30 years dev

Construction organisations
Estimating 12 22 16 5 5 3 8.0 9.3
Planning and Programming 12 12 20 9 8 2 9.7 9.2
Site Management 11 10 22 8 8 4 10.7 10.1
Measurement 9 17 6 11 13 7 13.4 11.9
Claims preparations 0 7 12 24 15 5 16.6 9.1
Contacts Management 8 4 10 23 10 8 15.6 10.7
/Legal support

Consulting organisations
Estimating 14 17 17 9 5 5 9.4 10.2
Planning and Programming 7 21 18 12 5 4 9.9 9.4
Site Management 19 22 18 4 3 1 5.7 7.1
Measurement 15 10 15 14 5 8 11.6 11.3
Claims preparations/ 4 9 12 19 14 9 16.3 10.4
assessment
Contacts Management 4 7 9 25 15 7 16.5 9.4
/Legal support

As can be seen, the average years of experience on claims preparation /assessments is

the highest (over 16 years). This suggests that most of the respondents have been

dealing with claims for considerable number of years and thus were ideally suited to

comment on the issues dealt with in the survey. The average years of experience of

measurement was higher than scheduling and site management, reflecting the fact that

129
the largest category of respondents was made up quantity surveyors or commercial

managers by profession.

6.4 Timing of DD claims submissions and assessment

Timely submission of DD claims by contractors and their quick assessment by

employers (or their representative) in the course of the project or as close in time to

the occurrence of the delaying events is often recommended as a good practice (Ibbs

and Ashley, 1987; Vidogah and Ndekugri, 1998; SCL 2002). The reason is that such

practice ensures less difficult claims resolution because facts of the claims will be

fresh in mind at that stage and also persons with little involvement in the actual

project whose participation tend to complicate the claims settlement will be

precluded. To investigate the extent to which this practice is observed by contracting

parties, respondents were asked to score their level of agreement with the proposition:

“the analysis and resolution of most DD claims are left unresolved until nearer the

end of the project or after completion before resolving”; using a 5-point Likert scale

(where ‘1= disagree’ to ‘5 =agree’). Table 6.4 shows the results, which suggest that

over 60% of the respondents from either construction or consulting firms are in

agreement with this proposition.

Table 6.4 The proposition that most DD claims are resolved nearer project completions
or after
Extent of agreement Construction Consulting
scale Percent Cumulative Percent Cumulative
Percent Percent
Strongly disagree 3.2 3.2 7.5 7.5
Disagree 9.5 12.7 9.0 16.4
Neutral 12.7 25.4 14.9 31.3
Agree 42.9 68.3 44.8 76.1
Strongly agree 31.7 100.0 23.9 100.0
Total 100.0 100

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The results suggest that contracting parties still face considerable difficulties in

resolving DD claims at close in time as possible to the occurrence of the delaying

events during the course of projects.

6.5 Extent of disputes on DD claims

As mentioned earlier on, claims relating to projects DD are often recognised as a

major source of disputes in the construction industry. To confirm the validity of this

as a justification (or otherwise) for the need to seek for improvement in current DDA

practice, respondents were asked to score their level of agreement with the

proposition: “the resolution of DD claims are often attended by considerable

difficulties thereby causing disputes”, using a 5-point Likert scale (where “1=

disagree” to “5 =agree”). Table 6.5 shows the results, which suggest that over 70

percent of the respondents are of the opinion that DD claims often result in disputes.

This implies that DD claims resolutions continue to pose great challenge for project

employers and contractors. Thus, there is still much to do in this subject area before

matters of project DD can be resolved without much dispute.

Table 6.5 The proposition that most DD claims resolutions results in disputes
Extent of agreement Construction Consulting
scale Percent Cumulative Percent Cumulative
Percent Percent
Strongly disagree 6.3 6.3 7.5 7.5
Disagree 7.9 14.3 9.0 16.4
Neutral 12.7 27.0 13.4 29.9
Agree 49.2 76.2 49.3 79.1
Strongly agree 23.8 100.0 20.9 100.0
Total 100.0 100.0

6.6 Reasons for disputes over DD claims

An important consideration in the design of a framework for improving DD analysis

is identifying the reasons that often cause disputes over DD claims. In this respect,

131
respondents were asked to rate the frequency by which a number of reasons have each

been the cause of disputes or unsatisfactory resolution of DD claims, using a five-

point scale (where “1= not frequent” to “5 =very frequent”). Participants were also

asked to add to the list and rate any other reasons they consider important. Table 6.6

shows a summary of the results.

Table 6.6 Reasons for dispute over DD claims

Reasons Contractors Consultants Overall
Frequency Rank Frequency Rank Frequency Rank
index index index
Failure to establish causal link 76.1 1 81.1 1 78.8 1

Inadequate supporting 67.7 2 72.2 2 70.1 2

documentation on quantum
Insufficient breakdown of claim 62.0 3 70.1 3 66.2 3
amount
Conflicting interpretation of 54.2 4 59.7 5 57.0 4
contractual provisions
Contractual provisions not 46.6 5 63.0 4 55.1 5
properly identified to support
claim
Inadequate effort at mitigation 37.4 8 59.0 6 48.6 6
Lack of timely notice 42.3 6 53.3 7 47.9 7
Inadequate/incorrect notice 40.0 7 50.6 8 45.5 8
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.95
χ critical
2
( =0.05) = 14.07; df = 7; χ sample
2
= 864.5

As can be seen, the three most likely sources of disputes are: failure to establish

causal link, inadequate supporting documentation on quantum and insufficient

breakdown of claim amount. These issues therefore require much attention in

researches aimed at reducing disputes on DD claims. There was a very high degree of

agreement among the groups in their rankings, which was significant at 95%

confidence level.

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Brief commentary on the top three factors are as follows.

6.6.1 Failure to establish causal link

The ranking of this as the most frequent reason for DD claims dispute was not

unexpected as proving cause-effect, i.e. linking the resulting damages of delays and/or

disruptions with specific events, is difficult and immensely complicated process,

particularly in matters where more than one event or party has contributed to the delay

in a number of ways (Bramble and Callahan, 2000; Furst, 2006). Despite this

difficulty, clear demonstration of the link between cause and effect remains an

essential ingredient that has to be present for the DD claims to succeed (Bramble and

Callahan, 2000; Pickavance, 2005). There is therefore the need for more attention on

the various approaches available for establishing causal relationships in DD claims.

The high ranking of the factor also suggests that either existing approaches contain

many flaws or are wrongly applied or certain conditions prevent the proper

establishment of the proof of causation.

6.6.2 Inadequate supporting documentation on quantum

The ranking of this factor as the second most frequent reason for disputes over DD

claims suggests that failure to maintain adequate records of project activities and their

cost is still a major problem. The construction industry has long been criticised on this

problem (Kangari, 1995a; Ndekugri, 1996; Vidogah and Ndekugri, 1998). A major

source of this problem is the use of improper systems for documenting or capturing

accurate and complete record of job conditions. For instance, the cost coded

accounting systems of most contractors are designed in such a way that base contract

works and inefficiency components are intertwined (Fayek, 2001; Harris and

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Ainsworth, 2003). In this way, clear delineation of cost attributable to each delay

and/or disruptive event becomes difficult making it extremely difficult to substantiate

the proper value or quantum of a claim. Although it is very expensive to effectively

maintain adequate records on a contract, it is important that this is weighted against

valid claims which may be substantially reduced or rejected outright because they

lack proper documentation.

6.6.3 Insufficient breakdown of claim amount

Inability to breakdown the claim amount for each of the event complained of was

ranked third. Claims suffering from this inadequacy are often referred to as ‘global’ or

‘rolled-up’ claims although most US practitioners use the term ‘total time claims’ for

claims relating to time only. The most common view on global claims is that

advancing such claims is a high-risk strategy and thus claimants should endeavour to

separately quantify the claims amount for each causal event, although such separation

may be difficult. Further description on global claims and its acceptability is reported

in Chapter 5.

6.7 Involvement in DD claims Preparation and Assessment

The issues to be dealt with as far as the analysis of claims on DD are concerned are

complex, requiring an understanding of contract law, contract forms, contract

administration, project planning techniques, and an appreciation of how construction

activity typically takes place (Scott et al., 2004). This multi-disciplinary nature

suggests that a variety of people with various expertises would have to work together

in a team to ensure adequate analysis and settlement of DD claims. Respondents were

thus asked to rank the level of involvement of relevant experts in their organisations

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in DD analysis on a five-point scale from “very low” (=1) to “very high” (5). Tables

6.7 and 6.8 give a summary of the results for construction and consulting firms,

respectively. There was a strong and significant degree of agreement among the

respondents in their rankings (as given by W= 0.74 and W=0.61 at =0.001).

Table 6.7 Level of involvement contractors’ staff

Expertise Involvement index Rank

Commercial Manager/Quantity Surveyor 86.1 1

Contractor’s Project /Site Manager 69.1 2

Head of Planning Dept. or his/her Nominee 57.8 3

External claims consultant 53.6 4

Head of Estimating Dept. or his/her Nominee 50.8 5

External lawyer 42.0 6

In-house lawyer 30.7 7
Kendall's W = 0.74
Test Statistics χ sample
2
= 327.22; with df = 6
χ critical
2
( =0.001) = 22.46

Within construction organisations, commercial manager or QS scored the highest

degree of involvement followed by the project manager or site manager. This suggests

that DA is still the domain of commercial managers although, with the development

of user-friendly project planning software, programmers/schedulers appear to be

making a significant contribution.

For consulting organisations, the employer’s QS scored the highest degree of

involvement. This position stands in stark contrast to the provisions in most

construction contracts that the obligation of assessing contractors’ claims is the

responsibility of A/E. This finding corroborates previous study by Vidogah and

Ndekugri (1998), in which most architects claimed that they often pass on claims to

135
QS for evaluations. However, such delegation is not stipulated in most contracts. An

issue of concern though is that this can place much administrative burden on the

employer and the contractor in the management of DD issues, as they may have to

deal with more than one party. Another issue is that unless the QS is an in-house

personnel (which is often not the case except perhaps in large employers), who is not

fully occupied with other duties, there is the risk that enough time would not be

available for claims assessment to be given the attention that it deserves.

Table 6.8 Level of Involvement of employers’ consultants

Expertise Involvement rank index Rank

Project’s quantity surveyor 80.0 1

Project’s Architect /Engineer 74.9 2
External claims consultant 60.7 3
External lawyer 51.0 4
Client 40.0 5
In-house lawyer 35.5 6
Kendall's W = 0.61
Test Statistics χ sample
2
= 288.33; with df = 5
χ critical
2
( =0.001) = 20.52

The low involvement of client staff is understandable in the sense that A/Es are often

contracted to administer the works including claims assessment responsibility as

pointed out earlier on. However, the problem with this is the irony of the fact that the

very virtues that render their appointment as delay claims assessors appropriate, such

as their familiarity with the claims matter, serve to create conflict of interest

particularly when dealing with delay events caused by their own failings like late

issue of information, for example. This can result in unfair assessment of the claims

thereby inhibiting settlement rather than facilitating it.

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The involvement of construction lawyers received the lowest ranking from all the

groups. This low involvement may be explained by the relatively high engagement of

external claims consultants (ranked 4th by contractors and 3rd by consultants) who

often possess relevant legal knowledge. Lack of input of experts with such knowledge

can be detrimental for claims that require considerable legal justifications such as

when proving the reasonableness of the A/E behaviour and assessing as to weather the

contractor used ‘best endeavours’ to mitigate delays.

6.8 Perceptions on existing DAMs

6.8.1 Level of Awareness of the methods

An important consideration that can affect the use or implementation of any DAM is

its level of awareness among practitioners. Respondents were thus first asked to rank

their level of awareness of the various methods on a five-point scale from “unaware”

(=1) to “very aware” (=5). Table 6.9 shows a summary of the results obtained.

The As planned vrs As-built methodology received the highest level of awareness for

contractors, consultants and overall. The methodology with the lowest level of

awareness was the Window analysis followed by the S-curve. Generally, construction

firms seem to be more aware of the simplistic methods (Global, Net impact, As-

planned vrs As-Built) than the sophisticated methods (Impacted as-planned, Collapsed

as-built, Window analysis and Time impact analysis). An opposite trend was observed

for consulting firms. Professional background and training may have influenced this

result because consulting firms seem to rely more on the services of claims

consultants (see Tables 6.7 and 6.8), who are the specialists in this subject, and thus

137
likely to be well-informed on existing sophisticated methods for resolving claims.

There was a significant degree of agreement among the groups in their rankings on

the extent of awareness.

Table 6.9 Level of awareness of the methods

Methodology Contractors Consultants Overall
Awareness Rank Awareness Rank Awareness Rank
index index index
As planned vrs. As Built 86.4 1 86.3 1 86.3 1
Impacted as-planned 79.6 3 77.6 3 78.6 2
Global 79.9 2 75.7 4 77.8 3
Net impact 72.9 4 74.5 5 73.8 4
Collapsed as-built 59.6 5 70.3 6 65.1 5
Time impact Analysis 46.4 6 78.2 2 62.9 6
S-Curve 40.9 7 68.8 7 55.2 7
Window analysis 40.0 8 67.2 8 54.0 8
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.87
χ 2
critical ( =0.05) = 14.07; df = 7; χ sample
2
= 791.7

6.8.2 Extent of use of the methods

To investigate the practical applications of the various DAMs, respondents were

asked to rank the extent of use of the methods using the 5-point scale from “low” (=1)

to “high” (=5). A summary of the results is presented in Table 6.10. The degree of

agreement (W) among the groups in ranking was computed as 0.50 which was

significant at =0.05. There was thus significant degree of agreement among

contractors and consultants on the extent of use of each of the existing methodologies.

As-planned vrs As-built was ranked 1st by contractors and overall although it ranked

was 3rd by consultants. Collapsed as-built was rather the most widely used techniques

138
of the consulting firms. Generally, the simplistic methods are more popular with

construction firms than the consulting firms. This is consistent with the findings of

previous studies that the simplistic techniques are more commonly used in practice by

contractors (Bordoli and Baldwin, 1998; Harris and Scott, 2001; Kumaraswamy and

Yogeswaran, 2003). Possible reasons responsible for their popularity are that they: are

simple to use and understand; do not require complete project records, which are often

lacking as Table 6.6 reveals, and require fewer resources to use (Alkass et al., 1996;

Lovejoy, 2004).

Table 6.10 Extent of use of the methods

Methodology Contractors Consultants Overall
Usage Rank Usage Rank Usage Rank
index index index
As-planned vrs. As-Built 81.9 1 56.3 2 65.7 1
Impacted as-planned 70.2 2 54.1 3 59.4 2
Collapsed as-built 47.1 5 63.0 1 54.8 3
Time impact Analysis 37.5 6 52.5 4 48.2 4
Net impact 51.7 4 39.7 6 45.7 5
Global 54.6 3 36.7 8 45.5 6
Window analysis 31.4 7 48.9 5 40.2 7
S-Curve 30.2 8 37.2 7 33.8 8
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.50
χ critical
2
( =0.05) = 14.07; df = 7; χ sample
2
= 455.0

6.8.3 Reliability of the methodologies in delay claims analysis

Most construction disputes in the UK are resolved by arbitration and other dispute

resolution forums which are private in nature. This has resulted in the publication of

far less decisions on the use of the various DAMs and therefore very little information

139
is available to practitioners as to their acceptability or reliability in practice. Therefore

a section of the questionnaire sought to examine respondents’ views on the reliability

of the methodologies in terms of settlement of claims without disputes that require

resolution by a third party. Two main aspects, complementing each other were

studied: rating the level of claims’ success associated with using each of the methods

by rating them on a 1-5 scale (1 representing “low” and 5 is for “high”); and rating the

extent of challenge posed by opposing parties to claims analysed using them on a

similar scale from “never” (=1) to “always” (=5). A summary of the results is shown

in Tables 6.11 and 6.12 for the success and challenge aspects, respectively.

Table 6.11 Level of success with delay claims analysed using the methods
Methodology Contractors Consultants Overall
Success Rank Success Rank Success Rank
index index index
As planned vrs. As Built 80.3 1 53.6 3 66.0 1
Impacted as-planned 67.7 2 51.1 5 59.2 2
Collapsed as-built 49.6 4 52.2 4 50.9 3
Time impact Analysis 37.9 6 60.3 1 49.8 4
Window analysis 30.9 7 57.8 2 45.2 5
Net impact 54.1 3 33.5 7 43.4 6
Global 45.8 5 32.8 8 39.2 7
S-Curve 27.1 8 33.6 6 30.5 8
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.45
χ 2
critical ( =0.05) = 14.07; df = 7; χ sample
2
= 409.5

The As-Planned vs. As-Built methodology was ranked by contractors as the most

effective in ensuring success of claims followed by the Impacted As-Planned

technique. This finding contradicts the opinions of some commentators that, on

account of various shortcomings such as insufficient attention to the critical path and

lack of capability to deal effectively with concurrency, acceleration and work re-

140
sequencing, they are considered unreliable (Stumpf, 2000; Zack, 2001; Pickavance,

2005). A possible explanation for this unexpected result may be due to the fact that

they are the most widely used methodology (see Table 6.10), and are therefore likely

to be the methods upon which most claims are finally resolved.

Consultants on the other hand ranked Time impact analysis followed by Window

analysis as methods that ensure claims’ successes without disputes, consistent with

the views in the literature (for e.g. Bramble and Callahan, 2000; SCL, 2002). The W

value obtained was 0.45, which was significant at 95% confidence level. There is thus

significant degree of agreement among contractors and consultants as to the ranking

of the methods with regards to their effectiveness in ensuring success of delay claims.

Table 6.12 Frequency of challenges to claims analysed using the methods

Methodology Contractors Consultants Overall
Challenge Rank Challenge Rank Challenge Rank
index index index
Global 90.9 1 82.6 1 86.6 1

Net impact 75.3 2 78.4 2 76.9 2

As planned vrs. As Built 67.6 3 72.9 3 70.4 3

Impacted as-planned 64.7 4 67.3 6 66.0 4
S-Curve 52.0 6 71.8 4 62.3 5
Collapsed as-built 54.1 5 65.4 8 60.0 6
Time impact Analysis 46.9 8 67.6 5 58.3 7
Window analysis 48.5 7 66.0 7 57.9 8
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.85
χ critical
2
( =0.05) = 14.07; df = 7; χ sample
2
= 773.5

On the frequency of challenge posed by opposing parties to delay claims resulting

from the method used, the Global method received the overall highest score followed

141
by the Net Impact technique. This finding corroborates published commentaries

(Alkass et al., 1996; SCL, 2002). Generally, as had been expected, the sophisticated

methods were ranked as less susceptible to challenge than the simpler methods, thus

suggesting that the former are more reliable than the latter. There was a significant

degree of agreement among the groups in their rankings given by W=0.845 at 95%

confidence level.

6.8.4 Correlation between DAM rankings

As a means of validating the ranking results, further investigation was carried out to

identify any relationship between the ranking results of awareness and use for each

DAM on the one hand, and between success and challenge rankings for each

methodology on the other hand.

Spearman Rank Order Correlation test was employed in identifying any existing

relationships as shown in Appendix D. A summary of the results obtained is shown in

Table 6.13.

Table 6.13 Spearman Rank Order correlations on DAMs rankings

Methodology Construction Consulting
awareness Success vrs. awareness Success vrs.
vrs. usage Challenge vrs. usage Challenge

S-Curve 0.576 0.274* 0.468 -0.352

Global 0.475 -0.174 0.375* -0.298*
Net Impact 0.557 0.191* 0.228* 0.443
As-Planned vs. As-Built 0.676 -0.203* 0.198* -0.366
Impacted As-planned 0.569 -0.056 0.410* -0.256*
Collapsed As-built 0.676 -0.150* 0.277 -0.281*
Window Analysis 0.728 -0.442 0.431 -0.488
Time Impact Analysis 0.737 -0.505 0.289 -0.321*
* Significant at 0.05 level; all other correlations sig. at
0.01 level

142
Generally, there was a significant correlation between the rankings on awareness level

and extent of use, suggesting that the methodologies are used to the same extent as

their level of awareness. Similar results but negative were observed for that between

the rankings on success and challenge, suggesting that the more a methodology is

open to challenge, the less capable it is in ensuring success in claims resolutions.

6.8.5 Obstacles to the use of DAMs

Some commentators have sought to explain the relatively low use of some DAMs by

pointing out perceived obstacles to their successful usage. To investigate the validity

of these commentaries respondents were asked to score the perceived obstacles on the

frequency with which they are encountered in practice on a 5-point Likert scale

(where “1= not frequent” to “5 =very frequent”). Respondents were also asked to add

and rate any other relevant obstacles not included in the listed. Table 6.14 shows the

rankings of the obstacles obtained from analysis of the results. As indicated by the test

statistics, the degree of agreement among the respondents in their ranking was strong

and significant.

Discussions on the top five obstacles are as follows.

143
Table 6.14 Obstacles to the use of DAMs
Factors Contractors Consultants Overall
Frequency Rank Frequency Rank Frequency Rank
index index index
Lack of adequate project 75.9 1 76.4 1 76.1 1
information

Poorly updated programmes 74.4 3 73.0 2 73.7 2

Baseline programme without 67.5 5 69.9 3 68.7 3

CPM network

High cost involved in their use 66.3 6 67.5 4 66.9 4

Difficulty in the use of the 66.0 7 62.1 6 64.0 5

techniques

Lack of familiarity with the 75.0 2 53.5 8 63.8 6

techniques

Unrealistic baseline programme 57.5 9 60.0 7 58.8 7

High time consumption in using 52.0 10 64.5 5 58.6 8

them

Lack of skills in using the 69.9 4 44.1 10 56.3 9

techniques

Lack of suitable programming 65.7 8 47.5 9 56.2 10

software

Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.72
χ 2
critical ( =0.05) = 16.92; df = 9; χ sample
2
= 842.4

Lack of adequate project information

The highest rank given to this factor corroborates commentaries on the poor quality of

project records (Kangari, 1995a; Vidogah and Ndekugri, 1998) and the difficulty they

pose to achieving the standard of proof required of delay claims (Jergeas and

Hartman, 1994; Kangari, 1995a). Delay analysis carried out using any of the methods

relies very much upon what actually happened on the project, which in turn requires

the keeping of detailed site records. Lack of such records makes analysis at a uniform

144
level impossible. If the analysis is not uniform in approach some delays are likely to

be concealed and others may be distorted or overemphasised resulting in inaccuracies.

Poorly updated programmes

The ideal way of proving delays is to determine the effect of individual delays on

project as at the time that they occurred (Trauner, 1990; Finke, 1999). For this to be

achievable, the schedule has to be maintained properly by updating it periodically to

keep track of important information such as changes in the critical path, actual start

and finish dates and percentage complete for each activity; reassessed activity

durations; and logic changes from previous updates. The high ranking of lack of

proper updated programme as 3rd by contractors and 2nd by consultants and 2nd by

overall concurs with the views in the literature (Jaafari, 1984; Nahapiet and Nahapiet,

1985; Mace, 1990).

Baseline programme without CPM network

The power of CPM-based schedules for proving construction delay claims analysis

can be traced back to the early 1970s in the United States (Wickwire et al., 1989).

Such schedules allow for the determination of critical path(s) and the

interrelationships among multiple causes of delay (Wickwire et al., 1989; Bramble

and Callahan, 2000). A study by Aouad and Price (1994) showed that most

contractors plan and manage construction projects using critical path planning

methods. The high ranking of this factor was therefore unexpected. Possible

explanations include that the CPM schedules are withheld from delay claims because

they tend to contradict the contractor’s claim.

145
High cost involved in the use of the techniques

This factor was ranked 6th by contractors and 4th by consultants and overall. This

was not unexpected because analysing delays using the various methods, particularly

the complex ones can be very costly (Alkass et al., 1996; Lovejoy, 2004). A major

source of the cost is the carrying out of some form of thorough CPM analysis using

the contract programme. In the absence of a reliable programme, retrospective

reconstruction of CPM As-Built from project records may be required which is a

highly laborious task requiring considerable levels of skills and experience. Although

such analyses are costly, they tend to give more accurate results.

Difficulty in the use of the methods

It should be clear from the discussion so far that the preparation and negotiation of

delay claims requires high levels of multi-disciplinary skills, particularly in the areas

of scheduling, work methods, costing and information technology. The high ranking

of difficulty in the use of the methods was therefore to be expected. Also, such

ranking may be inferred from the high ranking accorded to unfamiliarity with the

techniques, which was ranked 6th overall, 2nd by contractors and 8th by consultants.

6.8.6 Factors influencing the selection of DAMs

As highlighted in Chapter 5, the factors that influence the selection of the appropriate

methodologies are a matter of the greatest importance. Respondents were thus asked

to rank a number of factors identified from literature and the initial pilot studies, on a

5-point Likert scale (1 for “not important” and 5 for “very important”) on their degree

of importance in their decision-making in DAM selection. Provision was also made

for respondents to add and rate any other factor (s) they considered important.

146
The results, shown in Table 6.15, demonstrate that on the whole “record availability”

ranks first followed by “baseline programme availability”, while “the other party to

the claim” and “applicable legislation” comes at the bottom. The ranking of record

availability as the most important factor was not unexpected because irrespective of

the method adopted, analysts will have to depend on this for analysis, although the

amount of records required varies for the various DAMs. A claimant or defendant

will have a difficult time proving the standing of his or her case if documentary

evidence is lacking (Jergeas and Hartman, 1994; Kangari, 1995a). Factors relating to

the contract programme were generally ranked high by the groups and overall,

suggesting that programmes have relatively high degree of influence on the method

selected for DA. This was not surprising as programmes are now recognised as the

main vehicle for analysing delays (Wickwire et al., 1989; Kallo, 1996b; Conlin and

Retik, 1997).

A remarkable observation is the high ranking of “The amount in dispute” as 4th, 5th

and 3rd by contractors, consultants and overall, respectively. The possible reason for

this is the fact that analysing delay claims can be costly and time-consuming process

particularly when using methods such as Time Impact Analysis and Window Analysis

(Alkass et al., 1996; Lovejoy, 2004). This makes it necessary to consider the value of

the claims in dispute in relation to the cost involved in resolving it to ensure the

selection of a cost effective methodology.

By and large, there was a strong consensus among contractors and consultants in their

rankings (W= 0.93) and this was statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

147
However, there was much difference in their ranking on skills of the analyst.

Consultants ranked it 4th while contractors ranked it 10th, suggesting that contractors

attach relatively less importance to analysts skills’ in choosing a methodology.

Considering that lack of appropriate skills would lead to results likely to be

challenged, the relatively low ranking by contractors is surprising and needs further

investigation. On the other hand, the high levels of disputes associated with delay may

be a reflection of insufficient appreciation by contractors of the importance of delay

analysis skills.

Table 6.15 Relative importance of DAM selection factors

Selection Factor Contractors Consultants Overall
Important Rank Important Rank Important Rank
index index index
Records availability 99.7 1 95.5 1 97.5 1
Baseline programme availability 85.4 2 83.1 2 84.1 2
The amount in dispute 71.5 4 74.7 5 73.1 3
Nature of baseline programme 73.3 3 69.8 6 71.5 4
Updated programme availability 64.7 5 76.7 3 69.8 5
The number of delaying events 64.4 7 67.7 7 66.1 6
Complexity of the project 64.5 6 66.9 10 65.8 7
Skills of the analyst 54.0 11 76.1 4 65.3 8
Nature of the delaying events 64.4 7 64.7 12 64.6 9
Time of the delay 58.4 10 65.4 11 62.0 10
Reason for the delay analysis 60.6 9 67.2 8 61.8 11
Form of contract 50.7 13 67.2 8 59.2 12
Cost of using the technique 52.4 12 63.3 13 58.0 13
Dispute resolution forum 50.5 14 58.3 15 54.4 14
Size of project 42.3 16 59.1 14 50.9 15
Duration of the project 37.5 18 52.2 17 45.1 16
The other party to the claim 47.1 15 42.5 18 44.7 17
Applicable legislation 38.7 17 53.7 16 36.5 18
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.93
χ 2
critical = 27.59 ( =0.05); df = 17; χ sample
2
= 2055.3

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6.8.7 Application of factor analysis to the selection factors

Table 6.16 shows the results of the factor analysis in a rotated principal component

matrix. The 6 group factors extracted accounted for 69.18% of the common variance

shared by all the 18 selection factors. The group factors were appraised to identify the

underlying features that the constituent selection factors have in common. This

resulted in the interpretation of the group factors as follows:

group factor 1-project characteristics;

group factor 2- requirements of the contract;

group factor 3-characteristics of baseline programme;

group factor 4-cost proportionality;

group factor 5-timing of analysis; and

group factor 6-record availability

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Table 6.16 Principal Component Analysis Results
Selection factors Components Communalities
Group factor 1 Group factor 2 Group factor 3 Group factor 4 Group factor 5 Group factor 6
Complexity of the project 0.7962 0.6873
The amount in dispute 0.7243 0.5904
Size of project 0.6496 0.7904
Duration of the project 0.6407 0.8057
Nature of the delaying events 0.5253 0.6724
The number of delaying events 0.5021 0.7500
The other party to the claim 0.4102 0.6969
Updated programme availability 0.8102 0.6692
Applicable legislation 0.6938 0.6460
Form of contract 0.6910 0.6309
Dispute resolution forum 0.4949 0.6031
Nature of baseline programme 0.8453 0.7456
Baseline programme availability 0.7360 0.7739
Cost of using the technique 0.8106 0.6986
Skills of the analyst 0.6809 0.6306
Reason for the delay analysis -0.5160 0.7009
Time of the delay -0.5294 0.6121
Records availability 0.8373 0.7488

Eigenvalue 4.765 2.109 1.670 1.517 1.229 1.163

Percentage variance 26.472 11.714 9.276 8.430 6.827 6.464
Cumulative % variance 26.472 38.186 47.463 55.892 62.719 69.183

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Group factor 1: Project characteristics

This group factor accounts for 26.5% of the variance and is made up of complexity of

the project, the amount in dispute, size of the project, duration of the project, nature of

delaying events, number of delaying events and the other party to the claim. The

loading together of these factors was not surprising as the literature also suggests that

they are related. In research by Bennet and Fine (1980), complexity of a project

activity was viewed as the nature of the combinations of a number of operations

involved in the activity or the incidence of roles requiring different kinds of work

identified as work packages. These operations are often innovative and conducted in

an uncertain or not clearly defined situation (Malzio et al., 1988). Gidado (1996) also

identified overlap of phases or concurrency of activities as a component of project

complexity.

The identified project characteristics often impact on the nature of the delays

encountered (e.g. serial or concurrent of delays), thereby necessitating the use of

certain DAMs to a greater extent than others. Methods involving the use of bar charts

are unable to show critical paths, interrelationships and interdependencies between

activities and therefore are not suitable for proving delays where changes in the

construction logic were experienced and the effects of the delay were not restricted to

clearly definable activities (Pickavance, 2005, p.503). Although methods such as As-

Planned vrs As-Built and Collapsed As-Built utilise CPM techniques, they are unable

to take into account concurrent delays and any changes in the critical path schedule

during the course of the project (Alkass et al., 1996). These limitations make them

unsuitable for delay situations where re-sequencing and acceleration took place in the

course of the project.

151
Group factor 2: Contractual requirements

Contractual requirements grouping accounted for 11.7% of the variance and

comprised availability of an updated programme, applicable legislation, form of

contract and dispute resolution forum. These factors relate to the provisions or

requirements of the project contract and can influence the methodology that should be

used to analyse delays. For instance, contract clauses relating to programming and

progress control requirements may have a bearing on the availability of contract

programmes and its updates, which in turn facilitate the use of certain DAM to a

greater extent than others. Furthermore, standard forms provisions in respect of

providing relief from liquidated damages for employer risk events tend to fall into two

main categories, which can influence the choice of DAM (SCL, 2002, p.46). The first

category provides that contractors are only entitled to relief (in the form of extension

of time) for events that actually cause delay to completion. Under this category,

methods that seek to produce actual project delay such as the Collapsed As-built and

As-Planned vrs As-Built may be suitable to use. For the second category, relief are to

be granted for the likely effect of the events for the purpose of providing the

contractor with a rough but realistic completion date pending final review. In this

case, Impacted as- Planned or Time Impact Analysis may be appropriate (SCL, 2002,

p.46).

Group factor 3: Characteristics of baseline programme

This group factor is made up of availability of baseline programme and the nature of

the baseline programme and accounts for 9.3% of the variance in the selection factors.

The baseline programme may not always be available or exist in CPM format, making

certain methodologies more appropriate to use than others.

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In the absence of an As-Planned programme or where significant part of it lacks

sufficient detail, methodologies, which rely heavily on this programme cannot be

readily used. In such a situation DAMs based much on As-Built programme may be

more suitable. Although the As-Planned programme can be created or corrected

retrospectively for the analysis, this hindsight development could easily be challenged

on grounds of bias or unreliability (Trauner, 1990).

Group factor 4: Cost proportionality

This group factor includes cost of using the DAM and the skills of the analyst and

account for 8.4% of the variance. It is noteworthy that the level of skills required in

the application of the methods can influence the expense involved. For example,

analysing complex delay claims often require the use of powerful planning software

packages, which have functionalities and specialist features to facilitate the analysis

(Conlin and Retik, 1997; Hegazy and El-Zamzamy, 1998). These packages are

however, known to be relatively expensive, difficult to use, and require considerable

effort in maintenance and amendments (Kelsey et al., 2001; Liberatore et al., 2001).

A major source of the cost is the carrying out of some form of thorough CPM

analysis using the contract programme. In the absence of a reliable programme,

retrospective reconstruction of CPM As-Built from project records may be required

which is a highly laborious task requiring considerable levels of skills and

experience. Although such analyses are costly, they tend to give more accurate

results. However, in a situation where the claim values are small compared to the cost

involved in using a particular DAM, it may be appropriate to use a simple and less

costly methodology for the analysis (Pickavance, 2005).

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Group factor 5: Timing of the analysis

This group factor accounts for 6.8% of the variance in the selection factors and

comprises the reason for the analysis and time of the delay. The purposes for

analysing delay claims are many including: the resolution of matters concerning

extension of time, prolongation cost, acceleration and disruption (Wickwire et al.,

1989). These require different nature of proof because of their different requirements.

For instance, the effect of disruption is often delay to progress or productivity loss and

would only cause delay in completion if the impacted activities lie on the contractor’s

critical path. As a result methods utilising CPM should be considered when claiming

for extensions of time for employer-caused disruptions. Concerning claims for

reimbursement of loss or expense, the claimant should be able to prove the actual cost

suffered, which warrants an approach based on what actually occurred on the project

(Pickavance, 1997).

The time of the delay refers to the time of its occurrence relative to the stage of the

project. In this respect, DA is carried out either prospectively or retrospectively of the

delay occurrence. The former refers to analysing delays at its inception for the

determination of their theoretical or likely impact on the programme. This is best

undertaken using methodologies that largely do not require actual project data for

their implementation such as the Impacted As-Planned method. Retrospective

analysis, on the other hand refers to delays assessment after their occurrence or after

the project is completed and methodologies such as Collapsed As-Built would be

suitable as they are able to show what actually occurred.

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The loading of reason for the analysis and time of the delay together under one group

suggests that they are related. For instance, while extensions of time can be assessed

prospectively it may not be appropriate to assess prolongation cost in this manner

because many of the standard forms of contract require recoverable prolongation costs

to be ascertained and not just estimated. Indeed, the SCL Protocol (SCL, 2002)

emphasised that: “……compensation for prolongation should not be paid for anything other

than work actually done, time actually taken up or loss and/or expense actually suffered…”

Group factor 6: Record availability

Record availability factor is the only selection factor in this group and accounts for

6.5% of the variance in the selection factors. The sources of information that are

useful in DA includes contract documents, letters, minutes of meetings, notes,

material receipts, supervision and inspection reports, resource data and costs, daily

reports, extra work order, photographs, project schedules, and cost reports of a project

(Cox, 1997, Pickavance, 2005). The extent of availability and reliability of these

records may influence the methodology to be used, with less project information

necessitating the use of the less sophisticated DAMs and vice versa (Lovejoy, 2004).

The more reliable methodologies such as Window Analysis or Time Impact Analysis

require the availability of more project information to operate and thus would produce

less accurate results when important information is lacking.

6.9 Perceptions on DSAMs

As with the DAMs, the respondents were asked to rank the level of awareness, use

and reliability of existing methodologies for analysing disruption claims using the 5-

point Likert scale.

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6.9.1 Level of awareness and use of DSAMs

As with the delay analysis methods, respondents were asked to rank their level of

awareness of the methodologies a five-point scale from “unaware” (=1) to “very

aware” (=5). Table 6.17 shows a summary of the results obtained. The test for

significance results shows that there was significant agreement between the two

groups in the ranking at 95% confidence level.

Table 6.17 Level of awareness of DSAMs

Methodology Contractors Consultants Overall
Awareness Rank Awareness Rank Awareness Rank
index index index
Global Method 76.2 1 79.0 1 80.6 1

Modified Global Method 71.3 2 69.5 2 70.4 2

Measured Mile Technique 61.6 4 66.1 3 66.2 3
Industry Studies and 63.7 3 63.8 4 63.5 4
Guidelines
Time and Motion Studies 46.1 6 56.7 6 55.1 5
Earned Value 48.7 5 57.4 5 53.1 6
Management

Systems Dynamics 27.0 7 38.7 7 32.9 7

Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.98
χ 2
critical ( =0.05) = 12.59; df = 6; χ sample
2
= 764.4

The most well known methodology is the Global method, followed by the Modified

Global method. This high level of awareness could be due to the fact that the Global

method has gained much attention of researchers and expert commentators than the

others as review of the literature suggests. The chances for practitioners to learn or

hear about it have therefore been very high. The methodologies with least level of

awareness are the Systems Dynamics, Earned Value Management and Time and

Motion Studies, in that order.

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Table 6.18 shows the results on extent of use of the methodologies as ranked by

respondents on the Likert scale from “low” (=1) to “high” (=5). There was a

significant degree of agreement between contractors and consultants on this at 95%

confidence level.

Table 6.18 Extent of use of DSAMs

Methodology Contractors Consultants Overall
Usage Rank Usage Rank Usage Rank
index index index
Modified Global Method 62.3 2 56.8 1 58.8 1
Global Method 65.3 1 54.5 2 50.9 2
Industry Studies and 46.7 3 52.3 3 49.5 3
Guidelines
Measured Mile Technique 45.5 4 48.0 4 46.8 4
Earned Value Management 36.4 5 39.0 5 37.7 5
Time and Motion Studies 32.6 6 35.5 6 34.0 6
Systems Dynamics 23.9 7 28.4 7 26.1 7
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.925
χ 2
critical ( =0.05) = 12.59; df = 6; χ sample
2
= 721.5

As can be seen, the methodologies reported to have numerous weaknesses are

surprisingly the most widely used. Contractors for example, ranked the Global

method 1st followed by Modified Global method and vice versa for consultants. The

extensive use of these methodologies could be explained from lack of accurate and

proper project documentation, reported as the most frequent problem to claims

resolutions (see Tables 6.6 and 6.22). This makes the use of more accurate methods

impossible as they require such records for their implementation.

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Conversely, the Measured Mile Technique, regarded by most practitioners as the most

accurate technique (see Table 5.5), is not widely used as it ranked 4th. Amongst the

least used methodologies were the Earned Value Management, System Dynamics and

Time and Motions studies although these are also mentioned in the literature as more

accurate than the Global method, Modified Global method and Industry

Studies/guidelines (Schwartzkopf, 1995; McCally, 1999; William et al., 2003; Cooper

et al., 2004).

6.9.2 The reliability of DSAMs

The various DSAMs were also assessed with respect to the level of claims’ successes

and challenges associated with their use using the 5-point scale. A summary of the

results on these is shown in Tables 6.19 and 6.20, respectively. The degree of

agreement between the groups in their rankings was high (W=0.68 and W=0.92) and

significant at 95% confidence level.

On the whole, the Measured Mile technique, followed by the Modified Global

Method and Industry Studies and Guidelines, were ranked as the most reliable in

ensuring successful claims resolution without disputes. The System Dynamics and the

Time and Motion studies ranked 6th and 7th respectively on this suggesting that they

are not reliable. This was unexpected as they are reported to be more accurate, at

least, than the Global Method, Modified Global Method and the Industry

Studies/Guidelines (Schwartzkopf, 1995; William et al., 2003; Pickavance, 2005).

The reason for the low ranking of System Dynamics and the Time and Motion studies

could be due to the fact that they are the least used methodologies (as Table 6.18

158
suggests), which thus devoid most practitioners of information on their success rate in

practice.

Table 6.19 Level of success with disruption claims analysed using the methods
Methodology Contractors Consultants Overall
Success Rank Success Rank Success Rank
index index index
Measured Mile Technique 51.9 2 56.0 1 54.8 1
Modified Global Method 54.6 1 42.0 5 48.0 2

Industry Studies and 46.5 3 49.2 3 47.8 3

Guidelines

Earned Value 39.2 5 51.7 2 45.7 4

Management

Global Method 41.0 4 37.7 7 40.0 5

Systems Dynamics 27.0 7 46.0 4 36.6 6

Time and Motion Studies 33.7 6 39.0 6 36.4 7
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.68
χ critical
2
( =0.05) = 12.59; df = 6; χ sample
2
= 530.4

With regard to the frequency of challenge these methodologies expose claims to, the

Global Method received the highest rank followed by the Industry Studies/Guidelines

and the Modified Global Method. This was expected given their continued criticisms

by the courts and practitioners, particularly the Global method (Finke, 1997; SCL,

2002; Klanac and Nelson, 2004). On the other hand, the Measured Mile Technique

followed by the Time and Motion Studies and then the Earned Value Management

ranked as the most reliable on this aspect. This corroborates with the views of

researchers and expert commentators presented in Chapter 5.

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Table 6.20 Frequency of challenges to claims analysed using the methods
Methodology Contractors Consultants Overall
Challenge Rank Challenge Rank Challenge Rank
index index index
Global Method 71.1 1 69.1 1 70.8 1

Industry Studies and 68.7 2 61.9 3 65.9 2

Guidelines
Modified Global Method 59.6 3 65.1 2 63.5 3

Systems Dynamics 58.4 4 55.7 7 57.0 4

Earned Value 55.2 5 58.3 5 56.9 5

Management
Time and Motion Studies 54.4 6 58.6 4 56.5 6
Measured Mile Technique 52.2 7 56.1 6 54.1 7
Test Statistics
Kendall's W = 0.92
χ 2
critical ( =0.05) = 12.59; df = 6; χ sample
2
= 717.6

6.9.3 Correlation between the rankings of DSAMs

Like the DAMs, Spearman Rank Order correlation was used to compute the

correlations between the rankings on awareness level and extent of use of each

DSAM on the one hand; and between Success and challenge rakings of each

methodology on the other hand (see Appendix D for detailed results).

A summary of the results is shown in Table 6.21. As can be seen, significant positive

relationship exists between the rankings on awareness level and extent of use for the

groups suggesting that the methodologies are used to the same extent as their level of

awareness. The correlation between success and challenge were largely negative and

significant, suggesting that as a methodology is open to challenge, there is a

corresponding decrease in success rates of claims settled using them.

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Table 6.21 Spearman Rank Order correlations on DSAM rankings
Construction Consulting
Methodology Awareness Success vrs. Awareness Success vrs.
vrs.Usage Challenge vrs.Usage Challenge

Measured mile technique 0.419 -0.182 0.341 -0.303*

Industry studies and 0.584 -0.231 0.768 0.227*
charts
Global method 0.737 -0.156 0.256* -0.133
Modified global method 0.641 0.205* 0.430 0.212
Systems dynamics 0.679 -0.303 0.656 -0.042
Earned value 0.840 -0.521* 0.547 -0.459*
management
Time and motion studies 0.701 0.295 0.201* 0.419
* Significant at 0.05 level; all other correlations sig. at
0.01 level

6.10 General comments on the problems responsible for DD analysis difficulties

To confirm and identify further sources of difficulties affecting DD analysis,

respondents were asked to provide general comments on what they think are

responsible for poor resolutions of DD claims. Although not all the respondents

replied to this open question, the majority who answered did so enthusiastically by

stating at least two problems.

The comments offered are summarised and grouped under eight headings as tabulated

in Table 6.22. Similar views were expressed by both the contractors and consultants.

The main problems identified relates to poor record keeping, inadequate programming

practice, unhelpful attitude of employers and lack of expertise with relevant skills and

experience for dealing with DD claims. These findings corroborates the earlier results

on causes of disputes and obstacle to the use of DD analysis methodologies,

confirming that poor programming and record keeping practice as the major sources

of problems responsible for the difficulties and disputes on DD claims resolutions.

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Table 6.22 Problems responsible for poor resolutions of DD claims
Factor Frequency
Project records
Lack of clear, accurate/reliable and adequate contemporaneous records 22
Difficulties on agreeing on the level of information needed 4
Lack of productivity norms for individual contracting organisations 2
Lack of attention to facts with too much emphasis on the type of analysis to be 2
d information by subcontractors
Poor 1
Inability to keep up with the logistics of keeping accurate records 1
Attitude of project employer/owner
Lack of understanding from the client of disruptive effects of changes 6
‘All risk’ contracts not properly expressed 3
Basic dislike of ‘claims’ by client 2
Reluctant by client teams to recognised liability because of budget constraints 2
Client does not want to be shown lacking 1
Adversarial relationship between claims parties
Parties having entrenched views and protecting their perceived positions 7
Parties’ failure to acknowledge their contribution to DD and accept responsibility 4
Lack of commitment to seeking recompense due to client relationship risk 1
Personnel and expertise to deal with claims
Lack of experience, knowledge and skills of claims resolvers 8
People/staff leaving construction companies 2
Lack of consistency in approach within the industry 2
Employers team not versed in contract requirements 1
Attitude of employers’ Architect/Engineer
Lack of timely decisions by Architects/Engineers regarding delays 6
Architects/Engineers do very little in mitigating delays 3
Insufficient thought given to the outcome or likely outcome of changes 2
Planning and programming
Lack of proper planning and management of the project 5
Contractor’s baseline programmes not reliable/realistic 3
Most contractors do not update their programmes 2
DD notice
DD claims are usually left unresolved until the end of the project 3
Lack of timely notifications by contractors 2
Resources
Lack of resources to risk-manage claims on site 2
Cost of employing delay analysis experts 2

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6.11 Summary

This chapter has presented the results of a questionnaire survey of contractors and

consultants aimed for establishing the current practice in the use of DDA

methodologies and their associated problem. The survey questionnaires were

distributed to 600 construction organisations across UK and received an overall

response rate of 21%, representing 63 responses from construction organisation and

67 from consulting organisations. The respondents were mostly from medium to large

construction organisations with considerable experience in claims evaluations.

Various statistical tests including frequencies, relative indices, Kendall’s

Concordance, Chi-square tests, correlations and factor analysis were used to analyse

the survey data. There was a considerable corroboration between the study results

and the findings of the literature review. A summary of the findings of the survey is as

follows:

(a) The majority of the respondents agree that DD claims are often left

unresolved until nearer the end of the project or after before resolving.

Also, majority agree that DD claims resolutions are often attended by

considerable difficulties resulting in frequent disputes.

(b) The main reasons for disputes over DD claims are failure to establish

causal link, inadequate supporting documentation on quantum and

insufficient breakdown of claim amount suggesting that there are

deficiencies in current record keeping and programming practice which

require more attention.

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(c) The preparation and assessment of DD claims often require input from

commercial managers (quantity surveyors), schedulers, site managers,

architects/engineers, external claim consultants, lawyers and estimators.

(d) Commercial managers or quantity surveyors have the greatest

involvement in either claims preparation within construction firms or its

assessment by employers’ consulting team. The highest input from QSs

within consulting firms conflicts with the provision in most forms of

contract that the Architect/Engineer is responsible for claims

assessments. The expert with the lowest involvement was construction

lawyers.

(e) On the whole, the three most well known methodologies for analysing

delay claims are the As-Planned vs. As-Built, Impacted as planned and

Global method, whilst the least known are the Window analysis and the

‘S’ curve.

(f) Extent of usage generally corresponds to the degree of awareness of the

methodologies. Although the popular methods are the most prone to

challenge they are also those that most frequently lead to winning claims

because of the relatively very low usage of the most accurate techniques.

(g) The main obstacles to the use of DAMs are lack of adequate project

information, poorly updated programmes and baseline programme

without CPM network, confirming the earlier results on reasons for

disputes over DD claims. Again, record keeping and programming

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 practice are the areas that need further attention if improvements in DD

analysis are to be achieved.

(h) A total of 18 selection criteria were identified as relevant in influencing

the selection of delay analysis methodology. These criteria have different

rates of importance with the top five as records availability, baseline

programme availability, the amount in dispute, nature of baseline

programme, and updated programme availability.

(i) On the methodologies for analysing disruption claims, the most well

known and widely used methods are the Global method, Modified global

method and Industry studies and guidelines, although they are known to

have major weaknesses. The least used methodologies are System

Dynamics and Time and Motion studies.

(j) The Measured Mile Technique and the Earned Value Management were

perceived as the most reliable methodologies for analysing disruption

claims although these methods are not highly used in practice.

In conclusion, the main difficulties with DD claim resolutions and the ensuing

disputes are due to poor record keeping and programming practices which have led to

wide use of less vigorous DD analysis methodologies that are incapable of producing

accurate and less challenging claims results. The next phase of the research entailed

the use of semi-structured interviews for investigating issues of programming in more

depth within construction organisations. The results of the investigation are reported

in the next chapter (Chapter 7).

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 CHAPTER SEVEN

7 INTERVIEW RESULTS ON PROGRAMMING ISSUES

7.1 Introduction

The findings of the postal survey in the previous chapter indicate that much of the

issues affecting proper DD analysis relate to programming and record keeping

practice of construction organisations. Therefore, to properly understand why the

most reliable DD methodologies are not widely used in practice, interviews on

programming matters were further conducted among some of construction firms who

responded to the survey. The issues investigated include baseline programme

development, management of these programmes, productivity records keeping and

progress reporting. This chapter reports the findings of this investigation.

Out of the 63 construction firms who responded to the postal survey, 15 agreed to take

part and did so enthusiastically. The method of analysis adopted involved the

following. First, responses from each interviewee were recorded for each question

successively to form a database. This database was then carefully examined to

identify emerging themes which were collated using frequency analysis into

summary results.

The rest of this chapter presents and discusses the results obtained under the following

headings: (i) baseline programme development (ii) involvement in programme

development (iii) resource loading and levelling (iv) programme updating (v) progress

reporting and (vi) keeping records of crew productivity.

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7.2 Baseline programme development

Interviewees were asked to rate the frequency by which their organisation prepare and

submit baseline programme to the employer or its representative for approval or

acceptance on a five point Likert scale from “never” (=1) to “always” (5). Table 7.1

shows the response.

Table 7.1 Extent of submission of baseline programme

Interviewee Scale
1 2 3 4 5
1 9
2 9
3 9
4 9
5 9
6 9
7 9
8 9
9 9
10 9
11 9
12 9
13 9
14 9
15 9
Percentage (%) 0 6.7 13.3 46.7 33.3

Respondents were asked to mention the programming technique they often use in

preparing their baseline programmes. All respondents mentioned linked bar charts as

the format they usually employ for most of their projects. They went further to give

various reasons why this is often used as follows:

Easy to prepare and use (80%)

Easy to read and maintain (77.3%)

Company policy (62.1%)

Clients’ request (52%)

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 It is able to show critical path and activity relationships (55%)

With this, a question was put to respondents on how they view the use of traditional

CPM network (arrow or precedence diagramming methods). The majority replied that

the linked bar chart is a form of a network diagram, which has a more easy to read

appearance like Gantt chart and therefore do not see why traditional CPM network

diagram should be used. One respondent noted: “I would not say most contractors and

clients will struggle with network diagrams, but is not the norm these days. I can’t

remember the last time we used a network diagram”. Another commented:

“Company culture is programming using linked bar chart. It is the technique we have

been using over the years and is able to do the job without problems.”

Although the linked bar chart tries to incorporate the good qualities of bar charts, such

as being simple to understand, with the logic relationships of CPM, its main weakness

is that it can generate “link maze” (i.e. activity links crossing over each other in a

complex a network). This can lead to difficulties in identifying the relationships

between individual activities. It can also make it difficult to show a link to an activity

that does not start at its earliest time.

Therefore for projects involving complex sequence of activities the use of the linked

bar chart would be unsuitable. Most modern construction projects are likely to involve

such complex sequencing. It can therefore be concluded that the low rate of use of

sophisticated DAMs such as Time Impact Analysis in practice is probably because

most contractors do not programme their works using CPM which has the capability

of showing clearly all activity relationships.

168
On the tool they use to develop the programme, all respondents mentioned that they

use computers and mentioned the following software packages as the most common

ones they have been using.

CS Project (31%)

Power Project (31%)

MS Project (23%)

Asta Teamplan (15%)

These packages have been criticised for their indiscipline task logic and not being

very rigorous in their performance of forensic analysis of project records when

analysing delays (Conlin and Retik, 1997; Hegazy and El-Zamzamy, 1998; Liberatore

et al., 2001). Primavera, which is very popular software in the US and also

recognised by most experts as very versatile in programming and forensic scheduling

analysis, was not reported as widely used. Only one respondent claimed that they do

occasionally use (very rarely) it and this is when their client specifies that it should be

used. Although some hail this package for being in-depth and robust, they gave

reasons for not using it as: relatively very expensive, very complex and requires a lot

of time in setting it up.

In addition to the baseline programme, interviewees mentioned that they also develop

a number of programmes for managing the project. The following (Table 7.2) shows

the programmes indicated by respondents as often developed for most of their

projects. As can be observed, manpower loading graph is among the less-frequently

developed plans. The implication of this is that it would be difficult to resource-

load/level baseline programmes as evident in Section 7.5.

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 Table 7.2 Other preconstruction planning deliverables
Planning deliverable No of respondents
Method statement 13

Cash flow Chart/ S Curve 11

Health and safety guidelines 7
Phasing plans 4
Design schedule 3
Information required schedule 6
Procurement programme 4
Site layout programme 7
Manpower loading graph 2
List of temporal works 1
Schedule on environmental issues 3
Area programme 4

7.3 Use of the baseline programme

In an attempt to find out whether contractors recognise the importance of baseline

programme in resolving matters concerning projects DD, interviewees were asked to

mention the uses to which programmes are often put. The following were mentioned

by the respondents as the main uses:

A tool for planning, monitoring and control of the work (22.5%)

For assessing progress and identifying problem areas (20%)

Used for developing short-term rolling look–ahead programmes (15%)

For assessing the impact of variations and delays (15%)

As a tool for resolving delay and disruption claims (12.5%)

For coordinating the activities of project parties (10%)

Aids in the preparation of payment certificates (5%)

The results show that programmes are used for two main purposes as far as matters of

projects DD are concerned: assessing the impact of delays and disruption (often in the

170
form of variations) during the course of the project and in claims arising out of this

after project completion. The total percentage coming from these two was quite high

suggesting that contractors are generally concerned with the use of programmes in

resolving DD matters. Most interviewees mentioned that it is often not possible to

resolve these matters in the course of the project as usually recommended as best

practice (SCL, 2002; Kumaraswamy and Yogeswaran, 2003). A number of reasons

were given as responsible for this; the most common was that complete assessment of

impacts of DD events are often not possible to determine until sometime later or at the

end of the project. They mentioned the consequence of this end of contract resolution

of claims as disputes, which have to be resolved by third parties either in arbitration or

other forms of dispute resolution mechanism depending on the contract. Most

admitted that in all these stages; programmes are heavily relied on in resolving the

claims as indicated in the flow chart below (Figure 7.1).

The appropriate use of the contract programme in this respect requires that the

baseline programme be properly developed and managed. Since programmes not

properly developed such as having wrong logics and lacking sufficient activities’

details would not be considered as realistic baseline for DD analysis. In an attempt to

assess how baseline programmes are currently developed, interviewees were first

asked to comment on the experts involved in their development.

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 Identify employer-caused
DD event in the course of
the project

No Does the nature of the

event allow for full assessment of
their impacts ?

Yes

Forward price or contemporaneous

assess the impact of the events using
the programme

Matter develops into claims Agreement

situation resolved later or at between the concerned
the end of the project using No parties on the the results
programmes of the assessment?

Yes

Recoverery of loss
Amicable resolution of DD and improved
matters reputation with
clients
Amicable
settlement of
claims ? Yes

No

Claims develop into Dispute Resolved using Parties incurring

dispute often resolved at programmes and other possible cost and
the end of the project documents by third parties damaged reputations

Figure 7.1 Use of programmes in delay and disruption management

7.4 Involvement in baseline programme development

Studies have shown that the development of reliable and useful construction

programmes demands close cooperation between a number of personnel (Laufer and

Tucker, 1988; Laufer et al., 1993; Cohenca-Zall et al., 1994). The type of experts

involved in the development of programmes can therefore impact on the quality of the

plans generated. Interviewees were thus asked to mention the relevant parties or staff

who are often involved in the development of programmes. Their levels of

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involvement were also assessed on a scale of 1-5 (“1 for lowest involvement” and “5

for highest involvement”). The results of the responses are indicated in Table 7.3.

Table 7.3 Involvement in preconstruction programming

Expertise Level of involvement (in %) Involvement
1 2 3 4 5 index
Planning engineer 15.4 0.0 15.4 30.8 38.5 75.5
Project manager 23.1 15.4 38.5 15.4 7.7 53.9
Site manager/agent/engineer 30.8 38.5 23.1 7.7 0.0 41.6
Estimator 23.1 30.8 23.1 23.1 0.0 49.3
Contracts manager 46.2 15.4 30.8 7.7 0.0 40.0
Subcontractor/suppliers 38.5 38.5 30.8 0.0 0.0 41.6
Client/his agent 53.8 30.8 15.4 0.0 0.0 32.3

The result shows that the programming process involves many parties, most of which

are internal to the construction company, with varying degrees of involvement. The

different levels of involvement are understandable since the programming task is

affected by a number of factors that are often in control by different parties (Laufer

and Tucker, 1988; Laufer et al., 1993). Planning Engineers and Project Managers

appear to have more input than the other participating parties: Estimators,

Subcontractors, Site engineer and the Client.

7.5 Resource loading and levelling

The basic assumption in developing a programme is that resources required by

activities are unlimited. This assumption is, however, not valid as some resources are

highly limited in most practical situations (Woodworth and Shanahan, 1988; Cooke

and Williams, 1998). Thus, programming without considering resource limitations

may result in unreliable programme as resource availability will affect the start time

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of certain activities. It is also important to have resource loaded schedules because

resource loading (Kuhn, 2007):

is critical to evaluating both network logic and task duration;

affects logic when too many tasks requiring the same craft or

discipline are occurring at the same time; and

affects duration because addition or subtraction of resources will

directly impact task completion time.

Therefore for a programme to serve as a realistic tool for DDA it requires that

resources are allocated for each activity and scheduled in accordance with resource

consumption limitations (labour, equipment, etc) by levelling or smoothing the

resources. To assess the state of this in practice, respondents were asked to comment

on the extent to which the programmes they produced are resource loaded and

levelled, using a scale of 1-5 (1 for “never” and 5 for “always”). Table 7.4 shows the

results.

Table 7.4 Extent of resource loading and levelling of programmes

Interviewee Resource loading Resource levelling
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
1 9 9
2 9 9
3 9 9
4 9 9
5 9 9
6 9 9
7 9 9
8 9 9
9 9 9
10 9 9
11 9 9
12 9 9
13 9 9
14 9 9
15 9 9
%tage 40.0 46.7 13.3 0.0 0.0 46.7 33.3 20.0 0.0 0.0

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The results show that over 80% of the respondents seldom resource-load their

programmes. This is in reflection of the low rate of production of manpower loading

graphs as indicted in Table 7.2. Only two interviewees claimed that they occasionally

do carry out resource loading and that this is only done for some activities whose

resource requirements can easily be determined. The rest gave reasons for not

resource-loading their programmes as:

it is time consuming and difficult exercise to do;

following resource-loaded schedules in practice is difficult making it unhelpful;

it is impracticable for many activities as resource management is difficult;

it needs a lot of inputs from a lot of things making it a very complex thing to do;

it is often not part of clients’ requirements.

As a result of this poor use of resource loading and levelling, it is likely that most

programmes are not developed based on contractors’ resources plan. This suggests

that DD analysis based on such programmes could produce results not reflecting

reality and thus may not be relied upon as basis for claims settlement. Reacting to this

comment, some interviewee claimed that for potential claims events such as variation,

they often resource-load its “fragnets” upfront before inserting it in the main

programme in assessing their time and cost impacts prior to their execution. One

respondent mentioned that in the absence of resource-loaded programmes, they

sometimes create one retrospectively using actual records, although this can be a very

laborious exercise to perform. When asked whether they do carry out resource

levelling, over 80% answered that they seldom do it. Their reasons being that: (i) they

do not see it as a critical consideration; (ii) not practical to do as resources are often

difficult to control; and (iii) is a time-consuming task to undertake. The very few who

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sometimes carry out resource levelling said they only do it for some works,

particularly those in which one can easily move crew around. One interviewee

commented: “In practice, resources are often dedicated to a number of activities

belonging to different work packages or are shared across several projects, making it

inflexible to redistribute resources in order to smoothen or level them”.

The low rate of loading/levelling resources on programmes is an issue of concern in

using these programmes for DDA. For instance, the selection between “retained

logic” and “progress override” in CPM software packages is dictated by resource

levelling carried out (Nosbisch and Winter, 2006). Adopting any of these logic mode

in analysing a given claims problem gives different results (Arditi and

Pattanakitchamroon, 2006) and thus may give rise to conflicts if the selection is done

arbitrarily or based on what the analyst feels would give the results expected. Also

using progress override in updating a schedule may depict an out-out-sequence

progress, which may be challenged by the employer as problem areas of the

contractor’s programme if there is no reasonable basis for using this logic. Resource

levelling is therefore employed to correct preferential logic in making the programme

and its updates more reliable and transparent, thereby reducing disputes when applied

in DD analysis (Nosbisch and Winter, 2006).

7.6 Programme updating

Interviewees were asked whether they do produce programme updates in the course of

project and all answered in the affirmative. However, on the question of the interval at

which they do carry out this, almost all the interviewees responded that it would

depend on the nature of the project at hand, the terms of the contract and the

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occurrence of major changes. Best practice, however, suggests that updating

programme periodically at least on monthly basis is vital for the programme to

continue to serve as a useful tool for managing and controlling the project (see

Section 4.2). Interviewees were therefore asked to indicate how frequently they

update programmes on monthly basis using a scale of 1-5 where “1=never” and

“5=always”. As can be seen in Table 7.5, about 27% of the interviewees seldom

prepare monthly programme updates, 33% sometimes do, 27% often do and 13%

always do.

Table 7.5 Extent of programme updating and progress reporting

Interviewee Update programme monthly Monthly progress reporting
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
1 9 9
2 9 9
3 9 9
4 9 9
5 9 9
6 9 9
7 9 9
8 9 9
9 9 9
10 9 9
11 9 9
12 9 9
13 9 9
14 9 9
15 9 9
%tage 0.0 26.7 33.3 26.7 13.3 0.0 0.0 33.3 46.7 20.0

They were also asked to describe briefly how they do the updating. All the

respondents mentioned that they usually update their programmes in terms of time

and duration requirements of activities but not in terms of quantities of work

completed. The following sums up the views expressed by the respondents:

(i) Nine (9) interviewees said progress data in terms of actual logic, start and finish

dates of activities completed and the remaining durations for activities started

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 but not yet completed as at the update date are plug into the previous updated

programme.

(ii) The rest mentioned that in addition to doing the above, they also attempt to

reprogramme the remaining work particularly when the update shows that the

project is behind schedule in order to bring the project back on track.

Finally on updating, interviewees were asked to mention the expertise or parties that

are usually involved in the updating and their respective degree of involvement using

a scale of 1-5 where “1 is for lowest involvement” and “5 for highest involvement”.

Five main experts were mentioned with different levels of involvement as shown in

Table 7.6.

Table 7.6 Involvement in programme updating

Expertise Level of involvement (in %) Involvement
1 2 3 4 5 index
Planning engineer 7.7 38.5 23.1 15.4 15.4 58.5

Project manager 30.8 30.8 23.1 15.4 0 44.7

Site manager/agent/engineer 7.7 15.4 23.1 30.8 23.1 69.3
Quantity surveyor 38.5 30.8 15.4 15.4 0.0 41.6
Subcontractor/suppliers 46.2 38.5 15.4 0.0 0.0 33.9

As expected, site manager/agent/engineer has the highest level of involvement

because of their constant touch with the day-to-day execution of the programme. This

role provides them with all the necessary information on progress needed for

updating. One interviewee commented: “We train our site agent on how to update the

programme. The planner only comes on board during updating on site or in claims situations

when they are in problem situations or it is difficult for them.”

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A remarkable observation was that none of the interviewees mentioned any

involvement of the employer or its representative in updating. This is an issue of

concern because without the involvement of the contract administrator, an updated

programme produced may not be regarded credible. Also, their lack of involvement

may result in inadequate records on their side with regard to what actually took place

during the construction process. This can affect their ability to perform contractor’s

DD claims assessment contemporaneously or after the fact, although the contractor

may have to provide the necessary information.

7.7 Progress reporting

Interviewees were asked to indicate the extent to which progress is reported monthly

to the employer, using a scale of 1 to 5 (“1 for never” and “5 for always”). The results

are as shown in Table 7.5, which indicates that majority (over 60%) usually produce

monthly progress. In attempt to understand what they usually report on, interviewees

were asked to give an overview of the usual content of their progress report. The

following summarises their responses:

Health and safety performance (100%)

Financial status- payments due, certificates submitted, claims, etc (92.3%)

Update on design- design information, drawings, etc received and those

outstanding (92.3%)

Progress update – percentage complete of baseline activities, activities that

are delay and why, state of variations, when the job is likely to finish, etc

(92.3%)

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 Procurement issues- materials, equipment, subcontractors, etc procured or

yet to procure (84.6%)

Statutory and other approvals on issues concerning planning, utilities, the

public and the environment (77%)

Resources on site – number and state of various plants/equipment on site

(61.5%)

Quality control checks (53.8%)

Although the above are all relevant sources of information for DD analysis, not all the

respondents do report progress on all of them except for Health and Safety. This can

affect the quality and availability of contractors’ as-built records and thus make it

difficult to analyse DD properly using reliable methodologies. Such methodologies

require adequate and accurate project documentation for performing detailed analysis

such as:

verifying the accuracy of CPM dates reflected in the baseline programme, its

updates and the as-built programme;

identify and correlate events that may have occurred in respect of the

activities for establishing any shift in the programme;

developing a correlation between as-planned activities and milestones with

their as-built counterparts to identify any variances responsible for the

project delay;

identifying the start and finish date of relevant activities;

identification of float values of activities in programme updates;

identification of as-planned critical path, as built critical path and changes in

critical paths in various updates;

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 checking for activity relationships in the as planned programme, its updates

and the as-built programme for accuracy and reasonableness;

investigating and documenting productivity and cost impacts of activities

causing delays; and

investigating any variances of the programme due to disruption events.

7.8 Keeping records of crew productivity

Interviewees were asked to indicate on a scale of 1-5 (where “1=never” and “5=

always”) the extent to which they keep records of crew productivity for each of the

activities on the contractor’s programme. As shown in Table 7.7, only 13% indicated

that they sometimes keep such records, while the remaining 87% seldom or never do.

The very few who sometime keep such records mentioned that they do so only when

executing variations or compensation events that do not have equivalent bill item. In

other words, they do not keep productivity records of activities as part of their normal

duties except when executing claim-leading events like extra works or changes. One

contractor stated: “Daily documentation of productivities achieved for major activities is an

onerous task and will only be useful when loss productivity claims are to be filed. Such claims

are not often pursued by our company so we only keep detail productivity records when

executing activities that are likely to be subject of claims”.

When asked to give the reasons why such records are not kept routinely for major

activities, 8 of the interviewee who responded gave the following reasons:

high resources are involved in keeping such records (100%)

staff often regard such record keeping as waste of time and resources as they

do not often make use of them (75%).

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 the productivity figures given in estimating books (particularly for civil

engineering works), are often no where near the actual site productivity values

(50%)

The nature of most activities makes it difficult to track or keep productivity

records (75%)

Table 7.7 Extent of keeping crew productivity records

Interviewee Keeping productivity records
1 2 3 4 5
1 9
2 9
3 9
4 9
5 9
6 9
7 9
8 9
9 9
10 9
11 9
12 9
13 9
14 9
15 9
Percentage (%) 46.7 40.0 13.3 0 0

The major reason given was high expense involved in keeping such records. Even

though this is a genuine reason as it is burdensome to job-site personnel, claimants

risk having their claims reduced or, even worst, dismissed completely if they fail to

provide adequate documentary evidence to support their claims (Kangari, 1994). Not

only does the keeping of adequate records ensures that contractors are prepared when

claims and subsequent disputes do arise, it can also avoid claims arising in the first

place. It is important therefore for contractor’s to weigh the time and cost involved in

keeping such records against proper and legitimate claims failing entirely, or in part,

because of lack of documentary evidence.

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7.9 Summary

This chapter reports the results of interviews undertook to understand the underlying

causes of programming problems that affect the use of DD analysis methodologies.

The issues investigated include: development of the baseline programme-

involvement, format and software used and considerations of resource loading; the

management of this programme, productivity records keeping and progress reporting.

The main findings are as follows:

(a) Most contractors prefer to use the linked bar chart format for their contract

programme which has logic difficulties when used for projects with

complex sequencing of activities.

(b) Computers are used to produce the programmes with the most popular

software for this being CS Project and Power Project, followed by MS

Project, with Asta Teamplan as the least popular. These packages have

inadequate functionalities as far as their use for DDA is concerned, except

for simple cases.

(c) In addition to the contract programme, other planning deliverables produce

during precontract stage are: method statement, cash flow chart/S-curve,

health and safety guidelines, phasing plans, design schedule, information

required schedule, procurement programme, site layout programme,

manpower loading graph, list of temporal works, schedule on environmental

issues and area programme.

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(d) The most important use made by contractors of contract programmes during

construction were as a control tool and a tool for assessing progress, impact

of variations and delays and for identifying problems areas.

(e) The development of baseline programme involves many different expertise

most of which are staff of construction firms. The Planning

Engineer/Planning Manager appeared to have the highest input, whilst the

client/his agent makes the lowest input.

(f) Most of the programmes produced are not resource loaded and levelled.

This has a deleterious effect in the use of the programmes for proving or

refuting delay claims.

(g) Most contractors update their programmes monthly. This process requires

the input of a number of experts; with the highest input coming from Site

Manager/Agent/ Engineer and lowest from Subcontractors/Suppliers. There

is no involvement of the client or his representative and this can affect their

ability to properly assess DD claims using accurate methods.

(h) Monthly progress report is often submitted to the employer by contractors.

However, some contractors do not report on all the relevant matters that

contain relevant information for undertaking DDA. This is likely to create

difficulties in the use of more detailed DDA methodologies.

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(i) Records of crew productivity for major activities are not kept on regular

basis as a routine. A number of reasons were cited as responsible for this;

the main one being high expense involved in keeping the records.

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 CHAPTER EIGHT

8 A BEST PRACTICE MODEL FOR SELECTING APPROPRIATE DAM

8.1 Introduction

The findings reported in Chapters 3 and 5, in respect of use of existing DAMs,

suggest that there is no industry-wide agreement on which methodology should be

employed in delay claims. Unfortunately, most forms of contract seldom specify the

method that should be used to perform the analysis, either in the course of the project

or after. Such specification has become very important given the myriad acceptable

DAMs that are available for use.

Claim parties and their delay analysts therefore usually adopt their own DAM for

proving or disproving the claims based on their own accumulated experience,

expertise and intuition (Kumaraswamy and Yogeswaran, 2003; SCL, 2006). This has

been a recipe for disputes mainly because the various DAMs produce different results

when applied to a given claims situation as highlighted in Section 5.3.3. The only

solution offered for this problem has been the recommendation that the best

methodology for any situation should be selected based on a number of criteria

(Bubshait and Cunningham, 1998; SCL, 2002). However, apart from the fact that the

criteria vary from analyst to analyst, they are qualitative, subjective and imprecise in

nature, making their use in methodology selection open to challenge. There are also

no standard guidelines or approach (perhaps a decision tool) that can assist analysts in

this to ensure a more objective selection process.

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Inspired by the need to address this problem, a model for the selection of an

appropriate DAM has been developed. This is intended to serve as a tool for assisting

analysts in justifying their choice of DAM to their clients and/or the trier-of-fact when

the contract is silent on the method to use. Claim parties can also rely on it to arrive at

balanced rather than partisan results if they have to come to an agreement on which

DAM should be used for analysing the claims. This chapter reports on the

development of the model and is organised as follows: (i) brief notes on the need for a

decision model for the selection of DAM (ii) an overview of existing decision-making

models (iii) selecting the model adopted for this study (iv) developing the DAM

selection model (v) capabilities and limitations of the model.

8.2 The need for decision model for DAM selection

Like in any other discipline; employers, contractors and other stakeholders of

construction projects must make numerous decisions right from the inception of a

project, majority of which will influence the project’s profitability. One of such

decision is the task of identifying appropriate DAM prior to using it to prepare or

assess delay claims either in the course of the project or after. This has become a

major problem for analysts as highlighted in the previous section. A major cause of

the problem is the fact the criteria by which the selection of the right methodology is

to be based are many and conflicts with each other. For instance, most analysts will

agree that methodologies that are simple and inexpensive to operate will always be

preferred over complex and expensive methods if DD claims are all the time simple.

In this case, it will be easy to predict, for instance, that a methodology which is less

costly, simple and easy to apply such as as-planned vr as-built will always be

preferred over time impact analysis which is relatively costly and difficulty to use (all

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other things equal). However, it will be a different matter if the nature of the claims

situation were to be described as very complex with significant money involved,

which is typical of modern construction and engineering projects claims. In this case,

a methodology which is more comprehensive and capable of dealing with the claims

complexity such as the Time Impact Analysis or Window Analysis will be more

appropriate to use.

Moreover, real life claims situations are affected by many more factors than those

considered in the above scenarios. There are also many more methodologies with no

single methodology having attributes better than the best offered by other

methodologies (Arditi and Pattanakitchamroon, 2006). For these reasons, the question

of which of the methodologies is best to use is difficult in practice, often attracting the

response “it depends” (Harris and Scott, 2001). This decision to select the best

methodology thus cannot be resolved using simple decision rules. It rather requires

the use of a decision model which will enable analysts to trade-off the available

selection factors against the various DAM.

8.3 Overview of Decision Models

Dixon (1966) described “decision-making” as the process of making a “correct”

decision by choosing the one alternative from among those that are available which

best balances or optimises the total value, considering all the various factors. This

require the decision maker weighing value judgements that involve economic factors,

technical practicabilities, scientific necessities, human and social considerations, etc.

(Dixon, 1966). This is particularly difficult to make because of limited human

rationality and the information processing demand of many problem situations (Holt

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et al., 1994). To overcome this difficulty, a family of tools often referred to as “Multi-

Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods” have evolved over the years as aids for

decision-making.

MCDM tools vary from simple approaches to quite sophisticated methods in

commensuration with the varying levels of problem intricacy. They also range from

qualitative to quantitative in their treatment of available data relevant in decision-

making (Russell, 1992). The tools include: Scoring Multi-Attribute Analysis

(SMAA), Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), Multivariate Discriminate

Analysis (MDA), Linear Programming, Decision Tree Analysis, Multiple Regression,

Fuzzy Set Theory (FST), Cluster Analysis (CA), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

and Knowledge-based Expert Systems (KBES) (see for instance, Keeney and Raiffa

(1976), Yoon and Hwang (1995); Russell (1992) and Holt (1998)). The field of

resolving decision problems using MCDM tools has advanced significantly in the last

two decades (Shim et al., 2002). The tools have been used in a wide variety of

applications domain where decision makers have to deal with complex, unstructured

and difficult decision task. Examples of such applications include: the analysis of

construction decision problems using SMAA, MAUT, KBES, AHP, and FST

(Amirkhanian and Baker, 1992; Paek et al., 1992; Russell, 1992; Holt et al., 1994;

Chinyio et al. 1998; Wong and Holt, 2003; Ling, 2003; Mahdi and Alreshaid, 2005);

and the analysis of environmental and energy issues (Lootsma, et al., 1986; Bell et al.,

2003; Greening and Bernow, 2004), just to mention a few.

The common aim of all MCDM tools is to provide a rational framework for making

decision in the presence of multiple, usually conflicting, criteria. The characteristics

common to most MCDM problems include (Keeney and Raiffa, 1976):

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 finite numbers of alternatives, which can be screened, prioritise, selected,

and/or ranked;

numbers of attributes which depend on the nature of the problem;

set of units specific to the measurement of each attribute;

potential for characterisation of the alternatives relative of each attribute,

usually through an ordinal or cardinal scale; and

a matrix format where columns indicate attributes considered in a given

problem and rows list competing policy alternatives.

These characteristics are typical of DAM selection. Therefore the most suitable

decision tool to use for this model is one of MCDM.

MCDM problems are commonly categorised as discrete or continuous, depending on

the domain of decision alternatives (Yoon and Hwang, 1995). Discrete for where

there is well-defined, usually limited, number of predetermined alternatives, requiring

inter and intra attribute comparison, involving implicit or explicit tradeoffs. On the

other hand, continuous is for where decision variables are to be determined in a

continuous or integer domain, of infinite or large number of choices, to best satisfy

the decision-making constraints, preferences or priorities. The approaches for

evaluating these problems are respectively classified as multi-attribute analysis

(MAA) and multiple-objective analysis (MOA). The latter is commonly used for

design problems as these are often concerned with the selection of the best option

from amongst a potentially infinite set of options that satisfy a set of constraints. Such

approach is therefore unsuitable for the multi-criteria nature of DAM selection

problem which has finite alternatives.

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The tool adopted for the DAM selection model was carefully selected to ensure an

optimum or “best” possible solution to the decision problem at hand. To appreciate

the appropriateness of the selected tool, a succinct description of the more popular

tools is provided below. Detail description of the tools is not within the scope of this

chapter; literature abounds for thorough investigation of this subject where necessary.

8.3.1 Scoring Multi-Attribute Analysis (SMAA)

This is a technique for evaluating multi-criteria decision problems to identify the best

decision alternative from several well-defined alternatives (Finlay, 1994). Anderson et

al. (2005) have spelt out the analysis involved in this technique in clear steps as

follows:

Step1. Develop a list of the criteria to be considered. The criteria are the

factors that the decision maker (DM) considers relevant for evaluating

each decision alternative.

Step 2. Assign a weight to each criteria that describes the criterion’s relative

importance. Let wi = the weight of criterion i.

Step3. Assign a rating for each criterion that shows how well each decision

alternative satisfies the criterion. Let rij = the rating for criterion i and

decision alternative j.

Step 4. Compute the score for each decision alternative as follows:

Sj = ∑w i rij ; where Sj is the score for decision alternative j

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 Step 5. Order the decision alternatives from the highest score to the lowest

score to provide the scoring model’s ranking of the decision

alternatives. The decision alternatives with the highest score is the

recommended decision alternative.

The simplest form of SMAA is expressed as Sj = ∑r ij (i.e. without any weightings

(Wi)) and is termed simple scoring MAA (Holt, 1998). This has major weakness as rij

is often a very subjective measure. The purpose of the weighting indices is to

heighten the aggregated scores of the various alternatives in commensuration of their

satisfaction in relation to the various criteria. The Wi may be a function of (Holt,

1998): sole practitioner experience/predilection; group consensus opinion and survey

and analysis of data, from a sample pertinent to the selection setting in which the

model will be applied.

8.3.2 Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)

This technique is similar to SMAA except that it uses “utility” to quantify the

subjective components of the attributes. The term “utility” is used to refer to the

measure of desirability or satisfaction of an attribute of the alternative under

consideration. It gives an abstract equivalent of the attribute being considered from

natural units such as years, or £ into a series of commensurable units (utiles) on an

interval scale of zero to 1 (Holt, 1998). As in SMAA, utility values can be used in

conjunction with weightings, Wi, to give a more reliable aggregate score for the

various alternatives. MAUT is expressed mathematically as:

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 n
Sj = ∑W U
i =1
i ij ; Where Ui represents the abstract equivalent expressed in utiles for the

ith attribute of the jth alternative and n is the attributes considered by the decision

maker.

8.3.3 Multiple Regression (MR)

This is a statistical technique used to develop a model for observing and predicting the

effect of a number of independent variables upon a dependent variable. In general, a

MR model for predicting an outcome Y, a function of independent variables, X1,

X2,…..Xn is given by equation of the form:

Y = a + b1(X1) + b2(X2) + ... + bn(Xn)

Where a is the constant representing the y-axis intercept of the regression line; b1,

b2,…..bn are the partial regression coefficients representing the amount the dependent

variable Y changes when the corresponding independent variable changes 1 unit and n

is the number of independent variables.

In applying MR as a decision-making technique, the various attributes or criteria will

be represented as independent variables and the dependent variable will represent the

total score obtained by each alternative.

Associated with multiple regression is R2, coefficient of determination, representing

the percent of variance in the dependent variable explained collectively by all of the

independent variables. The higher it is, then the more accurate the model is able to

predict. The difference between the actual values of Y and those predicted by the

model is known as residuals.

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8.3.4 Linear programming (LP)

LP is an optimising tool for identifying maximum or minimum value of a linear

function, f(x1, x2,….xn) called an objective function, subject to a number of linear

constraints of the form Ax + By + Cz + . . .≤ N or Ax + By + Cz + . . .≥ N. LP is thus

a MOA technique.

The largest or smallest value of the objective function is called the optimal value, and

a collection of values of x, y, z, . . . that gives the optimal value constitutes an optimal

solution. The variables x, y, z, . . . are called the decision variables.

8.3.5 Cluster analysis (CA)

Cluster analysis is a tool for grouping objects (people, things, events, etc) of similar

kind into respective categories. By this, any associations and structure in a data, which

hitherto were not evident, may be discovered. It has thus been a very useful too for

developing taxonomies or classification system. There are three main types of CA:

Joining (Tree Clustering), Two-way Joining (Block Clustering), and k-Means

Clustering.

Although CA is generally meant for solving classification problems, it has been used

widely as a decision tool (Holt, 1998). In this application, a classification algorithm is

first used to group the given number of alternatives into a number of clusters such that

alternatives within classes are alike and unlike those from other clusters. This reduces

the original set of alternatives into manageable sub-sets of like characters. These sub

sets are then analysed considering their attributes to identify the best alternatives.

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8.3.6 Multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA)

MDA is also a statistical analysis technique concerned with separating distinct set of

objects (or observations) based upon their observed independent variables (Klecka,

1980). The technique begins by finding the most discriminating variable, which is

then combined with each of the other variables in turn until the next variable is found

which contributes most to any further discrimination between the groups. The process

continues in a similar manner until such time as very little discrimination is gained by

inclusion of any further variable (Holt, 1998).

The criteria which best discriminate between groups and which are most similar is

confirmed by computing the ratio of between-group variation to within-group

variation, simultaneously for all the independent variables (Klecka, 1980). The

discriminate factors are then used to develop a linear discriminate function of the

form:

Z = C 0 + C1V1 + C 2V2 + ........C nVn

Where Z is the score of the discrimant function; Vn is the nth discriminating variable;

Cn is coefficient of Vn and C0 is a constant.

8.3.7 The technique adopted for the DAM selection model

Even though there are several decision analysis tools available for use, the key

question is which of these should be adopted for the DAM selection model, which can

be seen as a MCDM problem on its own. The choice of the appropriate tool is a

function of the nature of the decision problem and the kinds of information deemed

relevant to the decision makers (Keeney and Raiffa, 1976; Yoon and Hwang, 1995).

Table 8.1 gives a summary of the various tools based on the levels of information on

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the decision-making environment and the nature of output results as described by Holt

(1998) and Greening and Bernow (2004).

Table 8.1. Characteristics of decision-making tools (Holt, 1998; Greening and Bernow,
2004)
Technique Nature of input data Nature of output
Scoring multiattribute Interval and ordinal but Numeric score and ranks
analysis subjective and hence rank amongst
alternatives

Multi-attribute utility Raw data is often qualitative, Numeric score and ranks
theory utility achieves interval data and hence rank amongst
alternatives

Multiple regression Interval predictive Numeric; further value

Linear programming Value judgement on the Maximisation of

importance of an over-all objective function
objective

Cluster analysis Multivariate Group membership/group

characteristics

Multivariate Multivariate Group membership/group

discriminant analysis characteristics

In the light of the above characteristics and the functions of the various tools as

described in the previous section, the tool that appears most suitable for the DAM

selection model will be one of Multi-attribute analysis methods (MAA- either SMAA

or MAUT). Figure 8.1 shows a conceptual framework of how a MAA tool can aid in

the selection of a DAM.

The wide application of MAA tools in one form or the other by a number of

researchers in the construction industry is an indication that these tools are

particularly suitable for construction decision problems. Examples of such

applications include the use of SMAA for the analysis of design/build contractor

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evaluation (Janssens, 1992) and the selection of architects (Ling, 2003); the use of

MAUT for the selection of an item of plant (Harris and McCaffer, 1991) and the

selection of contractors (Moselhi and Martinnelli, 1981; Diekmann; 1981; Russell and

Skibniewski, 1988; Russell, 1992; Holt, 1998).

On the basis that MAUT requires the use of utility function technique to determine

abstract values for each DAM attributes which the current study do not have, SMAA

was elected as the most suitable tool for the DAM selection model. The survey of DD

analysis professionals, which determined inter alia, attributes weightings in the form

of importance indices (see Chapter 6) make the use of SMAA more suitable than

MAUT. Moreover, SMAA is a well defined and easily understood tool, especially

with regard to the applications of the attributes and selection criteria. This quality is

one of the hallmarks of a good decision tool (Greening and Bernow, 2004).

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Figure 8.1 Conceptual Framework for the selection of DAM

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8.4 Construction of DAM selection model

According to Kepner and Tregoe (1975), there are seven factors that are essential in

decision making. These factors, in their order of consideration, are: establish the

overall objectives which are essential or desirable; classify the objectives according to

importance; establish alternatives choices; evaluate the outcome for each alternative;

choose the best alternative as the preliminary decision; re-evaluate the decision and

assess the adverse possibilities of that choice and finally, set up contingency plans to

control the effects of the final decisions. Tuning this framework to the problem of

DAM selection coupled with the procedure set out for SMAA, Figure 8.2 is proposed

as the flow chart describing the procedure involved in developing the model. The

following section provides detail description of the main steps contained in the

procedure.

8.4.1 Identification of DAMs and selection criteria

This requirement was achieved via literature review on DAMs (Chapter 5) and the

survey of the use of the methods in practice (Chapter 6). These chapters highlight the

existing methodologies for analysing delays and the relative importance of the criteria

for selecting the appropriate one for any given claims circumstances. The most

commented upon DAMs are As-planned vrs as-built, Impacted as-planned, Collapsed

as-built and the Time impact analysis/Window analysis. The model was therefore

designed for selecting a methodology from among these. The generic selection factors

(or criteria) are: Project characteristics, Contractual requirements, Characteristics of

baseline programme, Cost proportionality, Timing of the analysis and Record

availability.

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 Experts Literature Questionaire
experiences survey results

Identify DAM Identification of Selection

alternative choices Criteria

Establish relative importance Individual criteria

of the various criteria weights, wi

Establish the attributes of

the alternatives Gather data on characteristics of
the claims in respect of the
criteria

For each criterion, rank the

alternatives based on their
attributes

Apply Multiattribute analysis

function to obtain the suitability
Sj=Σwirij
score for each alternative

Rank all the methodologies

based on their aggregated
scores

Select methodology with

highest rank as the best for
the delay analysis

Figure 8.2 Model for the selection of DAM

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8.4.2 Gathering data on selection criteria

To be able to rank the competing methodologies against the various selection criteria,

data in respect of these criteria will have to be gathered and analysed. The sources of

this data are the claims itself, the contract document, project as-built records and other

project documentations.

8.4.3 Rating of DAMs in respect of the selection criteria.

This step involves rating the suitability of the various methodologies successively

against each criterion in reflection of the extent to which the method is suitable to use

given the criterion under consideration, using a scale of 0-1; “1 for very suitable” and

“0 for not suitable”. The various methodologies have different attributes which have

to be determined against the selection criteria to facilitate their rating. Some of the

criteria have sub-criteria that can be attributed to them so to assign rates to such

criteria; each sub-criteria would have to be considered and assigned a rank. For such

criteria, the score can be calculated mathematically as:

SCX j = scx1 j + scx 2 j + ....scx nj

Where SCXj = criteria score for methodology j;

scx1j…….nj = sub-criteria scores attributable to criteria X for methodology j. These are

equally weighted with the constrain that ∑ scx nj ≤ 1 .

The problem, however, with the rating here is the fact that some of the criteria are

intangible and also have different units of measurement making it difficult to evaluate

them. Therefore to facilitate the rating process, the means or approaches by which

each of the selection criteria could be evaluated has been presented in Section 8.4.6.

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8.4.4 Computing suitability scores for the methodologies

Having rated the methodologies against each of the selection criteria, the next stage is

to compute their respective total suitability scores using the equation: S j = ∑ wi rij ;

where the terms have their usual meanings as defined before. These scores can be

obtained easily by tabulating the individual scores for each criterion as indicated in

Table 8.2. The fourth column of this table shows the weights (wi) of the various

criteria as calculated by normalising importance ratings responses obtained from the

questionnaire survey. Column 5 shows their respective ratings. The total suitability

score for each methodology is obtained by summing up all the entries in Column 6.

8.4.5 Selecting the most appropriate methodology

Following the computation of the total suitability scores for each DAM, the next step,

which is the last, is to rank the various methodologies based on their total scores. The

methodology with the highest score and ranks highest should thus be selected as the

most appropriate methodology for the delay analysis.

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Table 8.2 Computation of suitability scores of DAM
Group Factor Selection Factor Rank Weight Rating Score
index

Record availability Record availability 97.5 1.0 Rd1 1.0xRd1

Baseline programme Baseline programme availability 84.1 0.86 Rb1 0.86xRb1

characteristics Nature of Baseline programme 71.5 0.73 Rb2 0.73xRb2

Contractual Updated programmes availability 69.8 0.72 Rc1 0.72xRc1

Requirements Applicable legislation 36.5 0.37 Rc2 0.37xRc2
form of contract 59.2 0.61 Rc3 0.61xRc3
Dispute resolution forum 54.4 0.56 Rc4 0.56xRc4

Timing of the analysis Reason for the analysis 61.8 0.63 Rt1 0.63xRt1
Time of the delay 62.0 0.64 Rt2 0.64xRt2

Project characteristics Project complexity 65.8 0.67 Rp1 0.67xRp1

The amount in dispute 73.1 0.75 Rp2 0.75xRp2
Size of the project 50.9 0.52 Rp3 0.52xRp3
Duration of the project 45.1 0.47 Rp4 0.47xRp4
Nature of delaying events 64.6 0.66 Rp5 0.66xRp5
Number of delaying events 66.1 0.68 Rp6 0.68xRp6
The other party to the claim. 44.7 0.46 Rp7 0.46xRp7

Cost Proportionality Cost of using method 58.0 0.59 Rs1 0.59xRs1

Skills of the analyst 65.3 0.67 Rs2 0.67xRs2

Total score Sj = ∑wi rij

8.4.6 Evaluating the various selection criteria against the methodologies

To rate the four methodologies against the selection criteria as described in stage (iii)

above (Section 8.4.3), the attributes of each of the methodologies have to be

compared with these criteria in turn. The different attributes of the various

methodologies as reported in the literature have been gleaned and presented in Tables

8.3-8.9 and Figure 8.3, and set out under the various criteria below. A number of

questions are then asked with regards to the extent to which a given methodology is

suitable for use based on these attribute and the criterion in question. In addition to the

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attributes, the following defines the questions for each criteria that will facilitate

rating of the methodologies.

Records availability

Table 8.3 shows the type of project information required for the use of the various

DAMs. To rate a methodology, the question to ask is: Is there enough project

information for the use of this methodology? Using Table 8.3 as a guide, the

percentage of information available for the proper use of the methodology is

calculated to represent the methodology’s suitability rating on this criterion.

Table 8.3 Important project information required for the application of DAMs
Record As Planned Impacted Collapsed Window
vrs As Built As Planned As Built analysis
Outline of delay events 3 3 3 3
Start dates of delay events 3 3 3 3
Finish dates of delay events 3 3 3 3
Activities affected by delays 3 3
Duration of delay events 3 3 3 3
Original Planned completion 3 3 3
date (or as extended)
Actual completion date 3 3 3
As-Planned critical path(s) 3 3 3
As-built critical path 3 3
Updates critical or near critical 3
path(s)
Update or Schedule revision 3
dates
Activity list with logic and lag 3 3 3 3

Baseline programme availability

Some methodologies require baseline programme for their implementation while

others do not (see Table 8.4). The question here is: Is there a baseline programme? If

Yes, score “1” for methodologies that need this programme for implementation. If

No, score “0” for such methodologies.

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Nature of baseline programme

It is not enough for a baseline programme to be just available; the programme would

have to be reliable in terms its completeness (i.e. showing all project activities),

activity durations, details and relationships. These sub-criteria are defined in Table 8.4

below. The question to ask in rating a methodology is: Does the baseline programme

satisfy all these sub-criteria? A methodology is then rated by calculating the

percentage of sub-criteria that are adequately catered for by the baseline programme.

Table 8.4 Main programming requirements of DAMs

As Planned Impacted As Collapsed Window
vrs As Built Planned As Built analysis
Baseline programme 3 3 3
available
Nature of Baseline
programme
Available in CPM 3 3 3
Includes all relevant 3 3 3
activities
Reasonable activity 3 3 3
durations
Reasonable activity 3 3 3
relationships
Activities defined in 3 3 3
appropriate detail

Updated programme availability

Table 8.5 outlines important programmes updates required by the various DAMs. The
question here is: Are these programme updates available? A methodology is then
rated as the percentage of updates that are availability for its use.

Table 8.5 Relevant programmes updates for DAMs application

Updated programmes As Planned Impacted As Collapsed Window
availability vrs As Built Planned As Built analysis
Intermediate regular programme 3
updates available

Final updated programme 3 3 3

available (as-built programme)

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Applicable legislation
The contract may be governed by certain legal procedures or rules which are required

to be followed by the disputing parties when resolving disputes. This can constrain the

methodology to be used. So in rating a methodology, the question is: Is the use of the

method affected by certain legal procedures or rules which ought to be followed in the

claims settlement process? If Yes, rate the methodology 0.0, otherwise rate it 1.0.

Form of contract
Unlike the USA, most of the contracts used in the UK are silent on the methodology

to be used for analysing delays. However, certain contractual provisions may

constrain the methodology to adopt; typical of which are provisions regarding relief

(in the form of time extensions) from liquidated damages for employer risk events.

The question here is thus: What are the terms of contract in relation to entitlement to

extensions of time as a result of delay events that are at the employer’s risk? On this,

most forms of contract in the UK can be classified into two:

(a) Contracts that provide that the contractor is only entitled to time extension for

delays that actually cause delay to completion and

(b) Contracts that provide that the contractor is only entitled to time extension for

the likely effect of the delays.

Retrospective DAMs are suitable for case (a) and so should be rated 1.0 if the contract

stipulates so and 0.0 for prospective methods. Opposite rating should be accorded in

case (b).

Dispute resolution forum

Over the years DD claims have been settled in negotiation, mediation, adjudication,

arbitration or litigation. The Analysts experience with these forums will give some

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information as to the extent of acceptability or reliability of various DAMs in their use

in these forums. So the question to ask is: Is the methodology in the “good books” of

the forum likely to settle the disputes? If Yes or not known, rate it 1.0, otherwise rate

it 0.0.

The reason for the delay analysis

Table 8.6 shows the capabilities of the methodologies in proving important delay

claims issues. The question that will facilitate rating here is: What are the issues of

entitlement to be proved in the dispute? Using Table 8.6 as a guide, a methodology is

rated as the percentage of claims issues that it is capable of proving. For example a

rate of 1.0 should be accorded if it is capable of proving all these issues.

Table 8.6 Capabilities of DAMs in proving common delay claims issues

Claims issue As Planned Impacted As Collapsed Window
vrs As Built Planned As Built analysis
Extension of time 3 3 3 3
Prolongation cost 3 3 3
Acceleration effects 3
Disruption effects 3

Time of the delay

The time of occurrence of the disputed delay event(s) relative to the current stage of

the project determines whether a retrospective or prospective methodology should be

used. The question to ask is: Is the methodology being used to assess delay before its

actual occurrence? If Yes, then prospective methodology is appropriate and thus

should be rated 1.0 and retrospective methods 0.0. Opposite rating should be allotted

if the delays are being analysed after they have occurred.

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Project characteristics criteria

These criteria include complexity of the project, the amount in dispute, size of project,

duration of the project and number of delaying events. More sophisticated methods

are warranted for instances where these characteristics are assessed to be high. For

instance, if the project whose claims are disputed is a short duration linear project of

say less than 6 months with say less than 5 delay events of claims value of less than

say £50,000, then a simple As planned vr As-built methodology may be suitable to

use than a more detailed Window analysis approach. On the other hand, an opposite

rating should be allotted to the methodologies for the case of a large-sized project of

long duration (say over 6 years) with very complex activity interrelationships, having

tens or hundreds of delay events and significant claims value of say over £1m.

Figure 8.3 compares the suitability of the various DAMs against these project

characteristics criteria. To rate a methodology for each of these criterion, a number on

the 1-10 scale is first selected in reflection of the characteristics of the project in

dispute. A vertical should then be drawn through this number and the methodology

that falls in line with this vertical or very close to it will be the most suitable method

with a rate of 10/10 = 1.0. The other methods are rated in proportion to their relative

positions to this vertical.

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 Scale
Suitability of DAM

Figure 8.3 Suitability of DAMs against project characteristics criteria

+ the selection criteria are: Project complexity, Size of the project, Duration of the project,
Number of delaying events, Cost of using technique, Skills of the analyst and the amount in
dispute

Nature of delaying events

The nature of the delays experienced also makes the use of certain methodologies

more appropriate than others. The sophisticated methods are capable of dealing with

more complex situations than the simplistic ones. The capabilities of the various

DAMs in dealing with typical characteristics of delays are shown in Table 8.7. To rate

a methodology, the question is: Which of these characteristics best describe the

delays encountered? Using Table 8.7 as a guide, the percentage of delay

characteristics that a given methodology is able to handle is calculate to represent the

suitability score for that methodology.

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Table 8.7 Capabilities of DAMs in dealing with important characteristics of delays
Characteristics of the delay As Planned Impacted As Collapsed Window
vrs As Built Planned As Built analysis
Delays occurred concurrently 3
with others

Delays caused much changes in 3

construction logic

Cause of delay is clearly 3 3 3 3

definable

Delay caused productivity 3

losses

Delay caused acceleration 3

Delays limited to specific 3 3 3 3

definitive activities

The other party to the claim

Experience with the other party in previous claims matters or in prior settlement of the

claims in question could inform the analyst of the extent to which the various DAMs

are suitable to use. The question to ask in rating each methodology is thus: Has the

methodology been used in prior settlement of claims dispute with the other party

without success? If Yes, rate the methodology 0.0, otherwise rate it 1.0.

The skills of the analyst

Analysts are likely to incline toward the methodology which they are more

knowledgeable and abreast with than those that they have very little experience with

its use. Therefore the question to ask here is: Does the analyst have the required

knowledge and skills for implementing the methodology being rated? If Yes rate 1.0,

or else rate 0.0.

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Cost of using the technique

To rate a methodology on this criterion, the question to ask is: Is the expense involved

in using the methodology within what is budgeted for? If No, rate the least expensive

method 1.0 (as it’s the most suitable) and the most expensive as 0.0. Figure 8.3

provides a guide on the cost of using available DAMs relative to each other.

8.4.7 Limitations and Capabilities of the model

A major limitation of the model is the fact that the rating of the methodologies against

each of the selection criterion requires many subjective decisions. To minimise this

subjectivity and ensure that the model generates reliable results it is suggested that the

analysts consult with relevant parties to discuss rating issues and agree on the rate to

be assigned for each methodology. Another important concern is the need for analysts

to consider all the selection factors in the model, although in some claims cases not all

factors will be applicable or relevant. Notwithstanding these limitations, the model

provides analysts with a comprehensive framework for selecting the right DAM for

any claims situation. By this, they can justify their choice of a methodology to their

client or triers-of-fact in a rational and balance manner. For further information on the

model’s limitations and its applicability in practice, it was forwarded to DD analysis

experts for their comments. This validation is reported in the next chapter.

8.5 Summary

The existence of more than one acceptable methodology available for analysing delay

claims has created the problem of which is the correct methodology for delay

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analysis. This situation is made worse by the lack of a decision tool for assisting

practitioners in resolving this problem. To improve the current practice where analysts

often rely on their own experience and intuition for the selection, this chapter

presented a decision model for aiding the selection process.

The development of this model involved, first reviewing existing decision tools and

then selecting scoring multi-attribute analysis technique as the most appropriate tool

for the model. Using this technique, a model consisting of five main processes was

constructed. It involves rating competing DAMs on 18 selection criteria identified as

relevant from a thorough review on the body of literature on DD and a questionnaire

survey of acknowledged delay analysis experts in the UK and the US. The ratings

from all the criteria are then multiplied by their respective weightings to obtain the

suitability scores of the various methodologies. The total suitability score for each

methodology is then computed by summing up all the suitability scores from the

various criteria. By this approach, analysts can now methodically consider, articulate

and apply their judgements to arrive at a rational decision concerning the appropriate

DAM for a given claims situation.

To test for the validity of the model, it was presented to DD analysis experts for their

comments on its significance to the construction industry, adequacy and applicability

in practice as reported in Chapter 9.

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 CHAPTER NINE

9 VALIDATION OF DAM SELECTION MODEL

9.1 Introduction

Validation is a key part of model development process which increases confidence in

the model and make it more valuable (Kennedy, et al, 2005). Thus, the developed

DAM selection model, reported in the preceding chapter, was sent to DDA experts in

the UK for their comments, as a means of validating the model. This chapter reports

on the validation process and its findings. However, as background information, the

chapter first outlines what is meant by validation, the various techniques available for

performing it and the rationale behind the adoption of the technique used for

validating this model.

9.2 Validation and its Techniques

There are many perspectives regarding the importance of validation in research, its

definition, terms to describe it and the techniques for establishing it (Creswell, 2007).

Given the many perspectives, Winter (2000) argue that “validation” is not a single,

fixed or universal concept, but rather a contingent construct, inevitably grounded in

the process and intentions of particular research projects and methodologies.

From modelling standpoint, validation is the process of defining whether the model is

a meaningful and accurate representation of the real system in a particular problem

domain (Borenstein, 1998). Unlike model verification, which is concerned with

developing the model right, validation is concerned with developing the right model,

(Gass, 1983; Kennedy, et al, 2005). It thus attempts to establish how closely the

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model mirrors the perceived reality of the model user/developer team (Gass, 1983).

Sargent (1998) argue that a model is developed for a specific purpose (or application)

so its validity should be determined with respect to that purpose. The main purpose of

validation is to get a better understanding of the model’s capabilities, limitations and

appropriateness in addressing the problem being modelled (Macal, 2005). These

insights are often used to improve the model to an acceptable standard. In addition,

they enable the modeller to meet certain criticisms of the model such as omissions and

assumptions used; and help instil confidence in the model’s output (Gass, 1983).

However, it is often too costly and time-consuming to determine that a model is

absolutely valid over the complete domain of its intended applicability (Sargent,

1998). Perhaps, this is because models are inherently unable to totally reproduce or

predict the real environment (Gass, 1983). Thus, the validation process is often not

aim at achieving absolute validity but rather confined to checking for Operational

Validity. This validity concerns the process of establishing that the model’s output

behaviour has sufficient accuracy for the model’s intended purpose over the domain

of the model’s intended applicability (Sargent, 1998). Other elements that concern

operational validity include establishing whether the model (Gass, 1983): (i) offer a

reasonable improvement in terms of net cost savings (ii) is robust enough that a user

would find it difficult to make it yield an ostensibly wrong solution.

There are various techniques for validating a model, each of which can be used either

subjectively or objectively, the latter referring to the use of some type of statistical or

mathematical procedures (Sargent, 1998; Qureshi et al., 1999). The basic idea behind

any of these techniques is the accumulation evidence regarding the credibility and

applicability of the model by an independent, interested party (Gass, 1983). It is

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common to use a combination of the techniques when validating a model. Brief

descriptions of these techniques, as defined in the literature (Gass, 1983; Sargent,

1998; Kennedy et al., 2005), are presented follows.

Animation: Watching a visual or graphical animation of the model’s operational

behaviour and comparing this with how the actual system behaves.

Comparison to Other Models: The output of the model being validated is compared to

the results of other valid models of the actual system. This is applicable if such valid

models are already available.

Degenerate Tests: The model behaviour is known to degenerate at certain situations.

The model can be tested to see if it degenerates as expected by simulating such

situations in the model using appropriate selection of values of the input and internal

parameters.

Extreme Condition Tests: Similar to the degeneracy tests, the model can be tested by

running it under extreme conditions to see if the model would behave as would be

expected.

Event Validity: This technique is by comparing the “events” of occurrences of the

model being validated to those of the real system to determine if they are similar.

Face Validity: This is by asking people who are knowledgeable about the system

whether the model and/or its behaviour are reasonable. This technique can be used in

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determining if the logic in the conceptual model is correct and if a model’s input-

output relationships are reasonable.

Fixed Values: By using fixed values (e.g., constants) for various model input and

internal variables and parameters, the results of the model can be checked against

easily calculated values.

Historical Data Validation: If historical data exist (or if data are collected on a system

for building or testing the model), part of the data is used to build the model and the

remaining data are used to determine (test) whether the model behaves as the system

does.

Internal Validity: This is by running several replications of the model to determine the

amount of internal variability in the model. A high amount of variability is an

indication of lack of consistency and this may cause the model’s results to be

questionable and, if typical of the problem entity, may question the appropriateness of

the policy or system being investigated.

Sensitivity Analysis: This technique consists of changing the values of the input and

internal parameters of a model to determine the effect upon the model’s behaviour

and its output. The same relationships should occur in the model as in the real system.

Those parameters that are sensitive, i.e., cause significant changes in the model’s

behaviour or output, should be made sufficiently accurate prior to using the model.

This may require iterations in model development.

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Predictive Validation: This technique consist of using the model to predict (forecast)

the system behaviour, and then comparing the system’s behaviour and the model’s

forecast to determine if they are the same. The system data may come from an

operational system or from experiments performed on the system.

Traces: The behaviour of different types of specific entities in the model is traced

(followed) through the model to determine if the model’s logic is correct and if the

necessary accuracy is obtained.

Turing Tests: People who are knowledgeable about the operations of a system are

asked if they can discriminate between system and model outputs. Inability to

discriminate between these outputs is an indication that the model is valid.

9.2.1 The technique adopted for validating the DAM selection model

According to Gass (1983), the appropriate technique to use for validating a model

mainly depends on the real world aspect being analysed and the type of model being

used. Consideration of the various techniques suggests face validity or expert opinion

as the only appropriate techniques for validating the developed DAM selection model,

mainly because no real-system data were available. Also, the aim of this study to

validate the model for industry-wide application also makes this approach more

suitable than the others. The objectives of expert opinion validation are to assess the

feasibility of the model in terms of its adequacy and clarity, and to ensure that the

model is reasonably robust and will be acceptable to users, much in the same spirit as

member checking or validation in qualitative research (Bloor, 1997; Creswell, 2007).

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Three options for carrying out the validation were considered: (i) focus group (ii)

interviews and (iii) postal surveys. The use of focus group or interviews was

handicapped by the time and cost constraints of the research, leaving postal survey as

the most appropriate option. Problems associated with postal surveys such as the

restrictive nature of the questionnaire and lack of opportunity to clarify respondents’

doubts were overcome by carefully designing the questionnaire and including with it a

worked example on the application of the model to clarify any misunderstandings the

experts may have.

The following sections describe the detailed procedure of the validation exercise,

which includes the application of the model to a hypothetical case study, development

of validation questionnaire, selection of experts, administration of the questionnaire

and the findings.

9.3 Application of the model to a hypothetical case study

The worked example for elucidating the application of the model in practice involves

the application of the model to a hypothetical but realistic scenario of a construction

delay claims problem. The scenario assumed for the worked example is defined as

follows.

9.3.1 Case study scenario

The project assumed is a £200 million contract for the construction of a new liquid

waste treatment plant for a Metro city. The project consisted of considerable amount

of construction work with scope of over 5000 activities. This involved the

construction of a number of treatment facilities organised in an intricate series to work

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collectively for the reduction of inflow waste concentration to an acceptable standard.

Also included was the construction of a three-storey operations house for the control

and management of the plant.

The agreed contract duration for the project was 6 years but this was overrun by 20

weeks due to a number of DD events caused by the employer and the contractor.

There were 43 of such events most of which were related to variations ordered by

employer, design errors, unforeseen adverse ground conditions, delay in the release of

necessary information to the contractor and contractor’s labour and plant problems.

The delays were clearly definable and limited to specific definitive activities, although

some employer-caused delays occurred concurrently with other contractor-caused

delays. In addition to causing delayed project completion, the delays also led to many

changes in the original planned construction sequence, acceleration and loss of

productivity effects. For instance, there were cases where the contractor had to move

crew from one area to another due to resequencing of the works and other acceleration

measures and this led to inefficiencies or loss of crew productivity.

Following these problems, the contractor issued claims for extension of time (EoT) of

15 weeks plus loss and expense of £2m. These claims were prepared using the

Window analysis method and submitted couple of months after the occurrence of the

last delay event, contrary to the contractual requirement of notifying the employer of

such claims early. Unfortunately, the claims went unresolved till towards the end of

the project when it was assessed by the employer’s contract administrator (an

Engineer) using the collapsed as-built methodology. The Engineer’s response

following the assessment was that the contractor is rather entitled to 10 weeks EoT

and £800,000 for the loss and expense suffered. The contractor disagreed with this,

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maintaining that the engineer’s assessment was based on a methodology which is not

appropriate to use for this claims and referred the matter to adjudication. To buttress

this point, the contractor’s delay analyst ought to prove to the adjudicator that his

methodology is the most appropriate for this case, which can be asserted using the

proposed DAM selection model.

Other facts surrounding the claims situation are:

i. The form of contract used did not expressingly provide for the use of a

specific methodology for the analysis of delay claims. It however, stipulated

that for the contractor to be entitled to EoT, delay events that are at the

employer’s risk should actually cause project delay. There was also no

provision made in the contract for the cost of settling claims and disputes.

ii. In compliance with contract specifications, a baseline programme in CPM

network format was prepared and submitted to the Employer by the

contractor. This programme was, however, not updated on regular basis in the

course of the project as the contract did not require so. Further, the baseline

programme was found to be inadequate on two aspects: it did not include all

the project activities and also some relevant activities were not defined at

appropriate level of detail.

iii. An as-built programme showing how all the project activities were actually

constructed was developed by the contractor at the end of the project.

iv. The contractor kept site dairy and monthly progress reports which contained

information such as durations and start and finish dates on all the 43 delays

and other relevant events.

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9.3.2 Application of the model to the scenario

Having outlined the claims situation, the next step is to apply the model to select the

best methodology among the following: As-planned vs As-built, Impacted As-

planned, Collapsed As-built and Window Analysis. The model was applied to these

methods in turn but only the detailed assessment of that of Window Analysis is

presented here, as this is enough to illustrate the application of the model.

Step 1: Rating of Window Analysis against selection criteria

The rating is done by first comparing each selection criterion to a corresponding

attribute of the window analysis method. Then using a scale of 0-1 (“1 for very

suitable” and “0 for not suitable”), the method is given a rating score for each

criterion in proportion to the extent to which the method is suitable to use based on

the attribute and the criterion under consideration. The different attributes of the

various methodologies presented in 8.3-8.9 and Figure 8.3 and reported in Chapter 8

were relied on in rating the methodologies against the various selection criteria.

Records availability (Rrec)

Table 7.3 shows all the important information required for the implementation of the

various DAMs. In this example all the information required for applying window

analysis are available except the dates of programme updates (i.e. 10 of the 11

required records are available). On the scale of 0-1 the suitability rate in respect of

this criterion is Rrec = 10/11 = 0.91

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Baseline programme availability (Rbas)

Window analysis requires the use of a baseline programme and this was available for

use in this case study. Therefore on the scale of 0-1, the suitability rating of the

method for this criterion is, Rbas = 1.0

Nature of Baseline programme (Rnab)

Table 8.4 outlines important baseline programming requirements for the use of the

various DAMs. The baseline programme of this case study was deficient in two of

these requirements (i.e. 3 of the 5 relevant requirements were satisfied by the

programme). The suitability rating on the 0-1 scale is thus, Rnab = 3/5 = 0.60

Updated programme availability (Rupa)

Table 8.5 outlines important programmes updates required for the use of some DAMs.

For this case study, one of these requirements was lacking, i.e. the absence of regular

programme updates. Since 1 of the 2 requirements was not available, the suitability

rating for the method on the 0-1 scale is, Rupa = 1/2 = 0.50

Applicable legislation (Rapp)

It is assumed in this example that no legal procedures or rules were required to be

followed by the disputing parties which could have affected the use of Window

analysis. It is therefore very suitable to use this methodology and so rates highest on

the 1-0 scale i.e. Rapp = 1.0

Form of contract (Rfmc)

The terms of the contract require that the delay analysis be based upon the actual

effect of the delays on project completion. Therefore the methodology suitable for use

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should be one of retrospective analysis, example of which includes the Window

analysis method. Thus on the scale of 0-1, the rating of the methodology on this

criterion, Rfmc = 1.0

Dispute resolution forum (Rdrf)

It is assumed in this example that the window analysis method is one of the methods

acceptable for use in adjudication. Therefore the methodology’s suitability rating on

this criterion using the scale of 0-1 is Rdrf = 1.0

The reason for the delay analysis (Rrda)

Table 8.6 shows the capabilities of the methodologies in proving important delay

claims issues. The disputes in this case concerned claims on time extensions,

acceleration, disruption and prolongation cost. Since window analysis is capable of

proving all these entitlements, it is rated very suitable on the 0-1 scale for this criteria

i.e. Rrda = 1.0

Time of the delay (Rtmd)

The time of the delay relative to the current stage of the project requires that a

retrospective analysis of delay be performed but not prospective analysis. Window

analysis is a retrospective methodology and so rates very suitable on the 0-1 scale, i.e.

Rtmd = 1.0

Complexity of the project (Rcxp)

Figure 8.3 compares the suitability of the various DAMs against a number of project

characteristics criteria. On project complexity of this case study, the scale number that

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best describes it is 10 as the scenario description suggests that the dependencies

between the activities must be very complex. A vertical through this number falls in

line with the window analysis method, making it the most suitable method in respect

of this criteria and thus rated, Rcxp = 10/10 = 1.0.

The amount in dispute (Ramd)

The amount in dispute for this case study is considered significant. This requires the

use of a methodology that is free of major weaknesses or able to produce accurate

results in the allocation of delay responsibilities. Figure 8.3 shows Window analysis

to be the most suitable for such case and thus rated Ramd = 1.0

Duration and Size of the project (Rdrt & Rsze)

Based on the classification set out in Figure 8.3, the example project is considered

very large in size and very long in duration. By extrapolation, windows analysis

appears to be the most suitable method to use and thus its rating for these criteria are,

Rdrt = 1.0 and Rsze = 1.0

Number of delaying events (Rnmd)

The number of delays in this case study is 43, which is less than the set threshold

beyond which window analysis is most suitable to use (see Fig. 8.3.). Therefore by

extrapolation the suitability rating of the method on this criteria is Rnde = 43/50 = 0.86

Nature of delaying events (Rnad)

The capabilities of the various DAMs in dealing with important characteristics of

delays are shown in Table 8.7. As can be seen, Window analysis is capable of dealing

with concurrent delays and delays that caused acceleration effects and loss of

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productivity. Since these were issues of concern in this example, window analysis is

very suitable to use and so rates highest on the 0-1 scale i.e. Rnad = 1.0

The other party to the claim (Ropc)

It is assumed in this case study that there was no prior unsuccessful settlement of the

claims in which Window analysis was employed. It was therefore very suitable to use

this methodology and thus rates, Ropc = 1.0

The skills of the analyst (Rskl)

It is assumed for this case study that the analyst was very knowledgeable and skilled

in the use of window analysis. Therefore it is very suitable to employ this method and

so rated, Rskl = 1.0

Cost of using the technique (Rcst)

Since the cost of resolving the claims was not budgeted for in the contract, the most

suitable methodology for this study will be the one which is least expensive to use.

Fig. 8.3 shows that Window analysis is the most expensive method and thus ranks

lowest on the scale of 1-10. Therefore its suitability rating on this criteria is, Rcst =

1/10 = 0.1

Step 2: Window analysis suitability scores

Table 9.1 shows the suitability scores of Window analysis for each of the selection

criterion obtained by multiplying each of the ratings for the criteria and their

corresponding weightings. The total sum of all these scores is 10.22

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Table 9.1 Suitability Scores of Window Analysis
Group Factor Selection Factor Weight Rating Suitability
Score
Record availability Record availability 1 0.91 0.91
Baseline programme Baseline programme 0.86 1.00 0.86
characteristics availability
Nature of Baseline programme 0.73 0.60 0.44
Contractual Updated programmes 0.72 0.50 0.36
Requirements availability
Applicable legislation 0.37 1.00 0.37
Form of contract 0.61 1.00 0.61
Dispute resolution forum 0.56 1.00 0.56
Timing of the Reason for the analysis 0.63 1.00 0.63
analysis Time of the delay 0.64 1.00 0.64
Project characteristics Project complexity 0.67 1.00 0.67
The amount in dispute 0.75 1.00 0.75
Size of the project 0.52 1.00 0.52
Duration of the project 0.47 1.00 0.47
Nature of delaying events 0.66 1.00 0.66
Number of delaying events 0.68 0.86 0.58
The other party to the claim. 0.46 1.00 0.46
Cost Proportionality Cost of using method 0.59 0.10 0.06
Skills of the analyst 0.67 1.00 0.67
Total suitability score 10.22

Step 3: Selecting the most appropriate methodology

The above procedure was repeated for the remaining three methodologies to

determine their total suitability scores, the results of which are shown in Table 9.2.

The methodology with the highest total score was Window Analysis and so is the

most appropriate methodology to use for the claim.

Table 9.2 Total suitability scores of the DAMs

Methodology Total Suitability score

As Planned vrs As Built 8.38

Impacted As Planned 7.71

Collapsed As Built 9.87

Window analysis 10.22

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9.4 Development of validation questionnaire

The second stage of the validation process was to develop a questionnaire indicating

the areas where experts’ views or comments are sought. The questionnaire was

designed bearing in mind a number of criteria for validating a model including

(Morris, 1979, Gass, 1983; Macal, 2005):

Accuracy and precision - can the model accurately and precisely select an

appropriate delay analysis methodology for any given claims situation?

Completeness – does the model include all important decision variables

required in the selection of delay analysis methodologies?

Comprehensibility – is the model simple and understandable to the

intended users?

Cost effectiveness – does the cost involved in implementing the model

outweigh its potential benefits?

The questionnaire also made provision for experts to express their comments on the

model in general or on specific aspects of it. A copy of the questionnaire is set out in

Appendix E.

9.5 Selection of the experts and response

For the model to be of acceptable standard to those in the field of delay analysis, it is

essential that the validation generates useful and relevant comments from relevant

experts. This can only be achieved if the experts chosen to participate in the validation

have the required expertise. In view of this, the experts were selected from the list of

practitioners who responded to the postal questionnaire survey based on the following

227
criteria: relevant expertise, relevant experience and academic and professional

qualifications.

The use of the previous survey’s respondents list as a sample frame has two main

advantages. Firstly, most of the practitioners in this list were individuals in senior

positions from construction and consulting firms with relevant expertise and

experience in claims preparations and assessments. Secondly, their prior involvement

in the earlier survey makes them familiar with this research, which will ensure good

response rate. Prior to sending out the questionnaire, letters were sent to the experts

requesting for their kind assistance in the validation exercise. Following this, a brief

description of the model incorporating the work example was send out via post to 25

selected experts. The mail also included the validation questionnaire and a cover

letter, stating the purpose of the research, the validation process and what was

expected of them.

9.6 Analysis of experts’ response

Of the experts contacted, 6 responded to the survey. Table 9.3 shows the profile of

these experts in terms of their organisation, job designation, area of expertise,

qualifications and years of experience in delay analysis. As can be seen, the experts

are all actively involved in delay analysis within consulting firms specialising in this

area of construction discipline. They possess relevant qualifications and their total

combined construction industry experience is over 96 years.

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Table 9.3: Profile of the validation experts
Expert Organisation Designation Expertise Qualification Years of
experience

1 Quantity Director Delay BSc(CEng), 16

surveying firm analysis LLM(Const. Law),
FCIOB, FCIArb,

2 Dispute Director Consultant PhD, MSc (Const. 14

resolution firm planner Mngt), DipArb.,
FCIOB, FCIArb
3 Construction Partner Construction BSc (Hons), LLM, 18
law firm law FRICS, FCIArb,
MCIOB, Solicitor
4 Quantity Director Delay BSc, DipArb, 20
surveying firm analysis FRICS, FCIArb,
MAPM
5 Construction Executive Expert PhD, BSc, MSc, 13
contracting Director Witness DipArb, FRICS,
consultants FCIArb, FAE
6 Firm of Associate Planning and BSc, MAE, FPEO, 15
forensic Director programming MAACEI, MSCL,
planners PMI.

As mentioned earlier on, the respondents were asked in a structured, semi-closed

questionnaire to comment on the model. In addition to offering ticked-box responses,

some of the experts provided their own comments about the model. All the responses

received were, to a large extent, positive. A summary of the responses to the various

questions in the questionnaire are set out in Table 9.4.

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Table 9.4 Summary of response from experts
Validation Criteria Expert response

1 2 3 4 5 6
Model address Yes, quite Yes, quite Yes, quite Yes, but not Yes, but not Yes, quite significant
important problem in significant significant significant significant significant
the field of DD
analysis?
Models Capability in Yes capable Yes, highly Yes, capable No, not capable, Yes, highly Yes, highly capable,
assisting in DAM capable capable,
selection
Comprehensibility of Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
the model
Resources needed to Wouldn’t be too Wouldn’t be too Benefits of using it Wouldn’t be too Wouldn’t be too Wouldn’t be too
apply the model costly to operate costly to operate justifies any costly to operate costly to operate costly to operate
resource
requirements
Completeness of the Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes
model
Scale for rating Very suitable not sure of suitable suitable not sure of Very suitable
methodologies against suitability suitability
criteria
Approaches/methods Not sure of its suitable suitable suitable not sure of Very suitable
for evaluating the suitability suitability
criteria in
methodology rating
Attributes of DAMs Not sure of its suitable Very suitable suitable suitable Very suitable
methodologies defined suitability

230
As can be observed from the table, most of the experts agreed that the model

addresses an important problem in the field of delay analysis. Concerning its

capability in performing its intended function accurately, most of the experts were of

the opinion that it is capable. This suggests that the model would be regarded by

practitioners as a very useful tool for DAM selection.

In terms of the model’s completeness, most experts felt that the model is

comprehensive and detailed, touching on all relevant criteria for selecting DAM. With

regard to comprehensibility, most experts found the model to be clear and simple to

understand and implement. One expert noted “it has covered a very complex aspect of

delay analysis in a simple and logical manner, which I think would not be difficult to

apply in practice”. However, an issue of concern raised by few of the experts that can

cause implementation difficulties relates to the degree of judgement required to reach

agreement on the rating of the methodologies. One stated that “each party will press

for their own case and interpret accordingly – even on the quality/availability of

records”. The author’s view is that this is not likely to cause difficulties in situations

where the model is being used by an analyst to justify the choice of a methodology to

its clients. The author acknowledges and accepts that it will rather be problematic

when analysts are using it to justify a methodology to a triers-of-fact or when

disputing parties are using it to reach an agreement on the best methodology.

Most experts felt that the model would not be too costly to implement at current

resource level. One expert commented that “its implementation would not consume

great resources and time and consequently its benefit would outweigh the costs”. The

various approaches proposed for evaluating the selection criteria were found to

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suitable. The scale for rating the methods was also found to be appropriate. Issues of

concern raised relates to the attributes of the methodologies as defined in Tables 8.3 -

8.8 and Figure 8.3. One expert mentioned that the “selection/definition of the methods

of analysis and the question of what is required of a delay analysis are unresolved

issues that will pose obstacles to the rating of the methodologies”. Another objection

raised was “each project will have its own view on the weights that have been

assigned to the various selection criteria”. The author does agree with this in

principle but considers the weightings to have sufficient objectivity, rigour and basis

for generalisation over some period of time since they were views expressed by

practitioners based on their many years of experience on projects. One expert

recommended that for improve usage, the model must be computerised.

By and large the opinions of the experts were in favour of the model suggesting that

the model would be regarded as valuable tool for selecting DAM. This represents a

positive contribution to the body of knowledge and practice of delay analysis within

construction organisations.

9.7 Summary

This chapter reports on the validation of the DAM selection model. The validation

process involved first the application of the model to a hypothetical case study. This

example application together with brief description of the model was then posted to

acknowledged delay analysis experts within UK for their opinion on the significance

of the model, its adequacy, completeness, comprehensibility and cost effectiveness.

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Out of 25 experts who were sent questionnaires for the validation, only 6 responded.

The majority of them were in favour of the model indicating that the model is a

positive contribution to the subject of delay analysis in construction contracts. The

main reservations expressed about the model concerned a potential difficulty of

reaching agreement on the ratings of the methods as there is currently lack of

agreement among practitioners as to the definition of the methods of delay analysis

and what the application of each actually entails.

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 CHAPTER TEN

10 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

10.1 Introduction

It is well documented that claims related to projects DD are now a major source of

dispute in the construction industry. Consequently, there has been much desire to

reduce or completely avoid this problem and this has created considerable research

interest among researchers and practitioners. The studies so far have followed three

main strands of research and expert commentary. The first group focuses on

development of new methodologies for analysing DD or improvements in existing

ones to address their weaknesses. The second, concerns with advocating for better risk

management and project design to reduce the likelihood of changes or variations. The

last group focuses on explaining and providing guidance on contentious contractual

and legal matters related to DD claims.

Despite such attempts, DD analysis continues to pose great challenge to project

parties. Stimulated by this, this research was initiated to investigate the current use of

existing DD analysis methodologies in the UK and the associated problems. This was

achieved through the use of an industry-wide questionnaire survey of construction

organisations (reported in Chapter 6) and subsequent interviews with contracting

firms (reported in Chapter 7). The purpose was to use the results from this

investigation and that from review of the literature (reported in Chapters 3, 4 and 5),

to develop a framework for improving DD analysis. Working from these sources of

information, the developed framework entailed a model for selecting appropriate

234
DAM (presented and validated in Chapters 8 and 9, respectively) and suggested

recommendations for promoting good practice (presented in this chapter). Also

reported in this chapter are the major findings and conclusions from the previous

chapters, which formed the basis of the recommendations. The final part of this

chapter presents a number of recommendations for further research.

10.2 Research Findings and Conclusions

The primary data relied on in achieving the research aim and objectives came from 63

contractors and 67 consultants who took part in the questionnaire survey on use of DD

analysis methodologies. Out of these, 15 contractors further participated in the

subsequent interview; whilst 6 consultants participated in a later validation exercise in

respect of the DAM selection model. The majority of the firms were large

organisations with more than 16 years experience in dealing with DD claims. Also,

majority of the respondents were at high levels of responsibility within their

organisations. They were therefore ideally suited to participate and respond to the

issues investigated in this research.

Drawing from the primary data collected and the literature review, the main research

findings obtained and conclusions deduced in respect of the research objectives are as

follows:

1. Resolving concurrent delays is a highly contentious issue, exacerbated by the fact

that there is no common definition among practitioners as to what concurrent

delay means. Despite this, there seem to be some accepted principles with regard

to its effect on entitlement to extension of time and compensation to prolongation

235
 cost (see Sections 3.2.1 and 3.2.2). The use of methodologies that are capable of

resolving claims involving concurrent delays is thus an important consideration

in DD analysis. Another contentious issue that influences DD analysis is the

question of “who owns float”. This issue, however, remains unresolved,

particular in the UK where most of the contracts do not address it by way of

defining the ownership.

2. An important issue related to float ownership is the question of whether

contractors are entitled to time and cost compensations for employer–caused

delays that prevent early completion, programmed by the contractor, even though

completion is not delayed beyond the contractual completion date. The generally

accepted view on this is that contractors are entitled to complete earlier than the

specified contractual completion date but the employer is not obliged to provide

information or other deliverables to ensure the former, without deliberately

hindering the contractor.

3. Resolving delay claims involving employ-caused delays that occurred after the

expiry of contractual completion date when the contractor is in culpable delay is

also an important issue in DD analysis. The generally accepted approach for

resolving this matter is the “net effect method”, which is adding the amount of

time taken by the delay to the date upon which the contractor should have

finished the work, be it the original or adjusted completion date, even though this

may be well before the date upon which the delay-events events occurred.

236
4. The majority of the respondents felt that DD claims are often left unresolved until

nearer the end of the project or after, contrary to resolving it contemporaneously

in the course of the project or as close in time to the occurrence of the delaying

event (s), an often recommended practice (see Section 6.4). They also felt that

their resolutions are often attended by considerable difficulties resulting in

frequent disputes (see Section 6.5). These findings further confirmed the need for

undertaking this research, which seeks to reduce or avoid such disputes through

the development of a framework for improving current DD analysis.

5. The respondents indicated that the most frequent reasons for disputes over DD

claim resolutions are: failure to establish causal link, followed by inadequate

supporting documentation on quantum and then insufficient breakdown of claims

amount. Inability to meet notice requirements by contractors was viewed as the

least frequent reason (see Section 6.6). This suggests that an important area that

requires much attention, if disputes on DD claim resolutions are to be avoided or

reduced, is the methodologies for proving causation and recording keeping on

site.

6. The preparation or assessment of DD claims is a multidisciplinary task involving

different levels of inputs from commercial managers (or quantity surveyors),

architects/engineers, project managers, planning engineers, estimators,

construction lawyers and claims consultants. Quantity surveyors (QSs) make the

greatest input in either claims preparation within construction firms or its

assessment by employers’ consulting team (see section 6.7). Their highest

involvement within consulting firms, however, conflicts with the provision in

237
 most forms of contract that the Architect/Engineer is the agent responsible for

contractors’ claims assessments. This implies that DD analysis is the domain of

QSs, although with the development of user-friendly project planning software

the task now appears to be the province of programmers or schedulers. There is

therefore the need for attention to be given to QSs functions within employer

organisations in terms of their roles in DD claims assessment, strategic

management of this role and their training needs.

7. There is increasing recognition and acceptance of the use of CPM-based

methodologies for DD analysis by UK courts. Whilst it is not clear from case law

as to which of the available methodologies is most acceptable by the courts and

how each should be applied appropriately, some important principles pertaining

to their usage were identified (see Section 3.6). First, their application should be

backed by: (i) good factual evidence; and (ii) effective presentation of that

evidence through clear, methodical and transparent analysis. Second, those giving

evidence in court in the capacity of an expert must ensure that their approach is

balanced, objective, thorough, clear and sensible. These emphasise the need for

keeping good project records and relying on DD analysis methodologies that are

free of major flaws. Such practice will help diffuse misunderstandings or disputes

that often surround DD analysis.

8. A number of methodologies for analysing delays (DAMs) have been reported in

the literature. Not only are these referred to by different terminologies amongst

practitioners and researchers, they also differ based on their mode of application,

the type of programming technique and the baseline programme used. As such,

238
 they produce different results of staggeringly different levels of accuracy when

applied to a given claims situation. These differences contribute to the difficulties

and disputes associated with DD analysis (see Section 5.3.1).

9. None of the existing DAMs is perfect as each has its own strengths and

weaknesses. The more sophisticated methods (viz, Time Impact Analysis,

Window Analysis, Collapsed As-built and Impacted as planned) are reported as

being more accurate and reliable than the simplistic ones (viz, Global method,

Net Impact Technique and As planned vrs As built), although the former group

requires more expense, time, skills, resources and project records to operate than

the latter.

10. There is also no single DAM that is universally acceptable for all claims

situations. The most appropriate methodology for any given situation depends on

a number of criteria. However, apart from the fact that these criteria may vary

from analyst to analyst, they are qualitative, subjective and imprecise in nature,

making their use in methodology selection open to challenge and disputes (see

Sections 5.3.2 and 5.3.3). It was for this reason that, this research developed and

validated a model for selecting appropriate DAM to aid practitioners in this

decision-making task.

11. Like DAMs, the methodologies for analysing disruptions (DSAMs) are numerous

and referred to by different names amongst practitioners. They vary based on

different sources of information they relied on for analyses. None of them is

perfect even though some are more reliable than others under certain

239
 circumstances. Their acceptability or reliability depends upon the situation of the

claims at hand (see Section 5.4).

12. In determining what framework (in a form of recommendations) might be useful

for improving DD analysis, an area identified as important for investigation was

the use of the existing methodologies in practice and associated problems (as

Paragraphs 5 and 7 above suggest). The questionnaire survey employed for

undertaking this investigation revealed the following:

(i) The most well-known DAMs are the: As-Planned vs. As-Built, followed by

Impacted As-planned, Global method and then the Net Impact technique

i.e. the sophisticated methods, known to be the most powerful, were

generally among the least known methodologies.

(ii) The most widely used methodology, on the whole, was the As-Planned vs.

As-Built followed by the Impacted As-planned, despite their reported

numerous weaknesses. These methodologies most frequently expose claims

to challenge, although they are those that most frequently lead to successful

claims resolution. The reason for this irony is probably because, by virtue

of their extensive use, they are likely to be the methods which most claims

are finally resolved by.

(iii) The Time Impact Analysis and Window Analysis methodologies, highly

acclaimed in the literature as the most rigorous, are not widely used;

although consulting firms tend to use them to a higher extent than

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 contractors. Despite their low rate of use, respondents recognised them as

the most accurate and reliable methodologies corroborating the views in the

literature. This suggests that tackling the problems that make it difficult to

use these methodologies can bring about improvements in DD analysis and

reduce disputes.

(iv) Respondents reported that the most frequent obstacles to the use of the

methodologies are: lack of adequate project information, poorly updated

programmes, baseline programme not being in CPM network form, high

cost involved in the use of the techniques and difficulty in the use of the

methods, in that order (see Section 6.8.5). These support an earlier findings

from the literature that: poor baseline programmes, failure to update

programmes, and inadequately updated programmes are major deficiencies

in practice that affects smooth analysis and resolution of DD claims (see

Section 4.2). Other sources of even more frustrating problems identified by

the survey include: unhelpful attitude of project employers and their

representatives, adversarial relationship between parties and lack of

expertise to deal properly with DD claims (see Section 6.10).

(v) Given that no single DAM is universally appropriate for all claims

situations, respondents indicated that the most appropriate methodology is

dictated by eighteen (18) criteria. These have different degrees of

importance in influencing methodology selection with the top five as:

records availability, baseline programme availability, the amount in

dispute, nature of baseline programme, and updated programme

241
 availability; in that order. The 18 criteria were further grouped into 6

generic factors using factor analysis as: project characteristics, contractual

requirements, characteristics of baseline programme, cost proportionality,

timing of analysis and record availability (see Section 6.8.6).

(vi) The most well-known and widely used DSAMs are: the Global method,

followed by the Modified Global Method and then the Industry Studies and

Guidelines, although these have received a lot of criticisms from the courts

and expert commentators on account of their numerous weaknesses. The

Measured Mile Technique and the Earned Value Management, reported as

the most rigorous methodologies, are however, not widely used in practice.

Nevertheless, the respondents, by and large, recognised these

methodologies as the most accurate and reliable supporting the views in the

literature.

(vii) The respondents employ the various methodologies to the same extent as

they are aware of them at significant correlations (see Sections 6.8.4 and

6.9.3). This suggests that promoting the use of the more accurate

methodologies cannot only be engendered by improvements in record

keeping and programming practice, but also by raising their awareness

level among practitioners.

13. Problems with programming and record keeping practice are a major source of

the difficulties with DD analysis as Paragraph 12(iv) above indicates.

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Investigating the underlying causes of these problems using interviews identified

the following:

(i) Most of the interviewees confirmed that in addition to making use of

contract programmes as a control tool during construction, they also

make important use of it in the assessment of progress, impact of

variations, delays and disruptions (see Section 7.3).

(ii) Although majority mentioned that they often prepare baseline

programmes and submit it to their employers or its representatives, they

do so with very little involvement of the latter (see Section 7.4). As a

result, issues on reliability of the programme (see Section 4.2.1) may

cause difficulties later in the approval or acceptance of the programme by

the employer or its representatives.

(iii) In addition to the baseline programme, contractors also produce other

planning deliverables during preconstruction stage. However, manpower

loading graphs, an important deliverable essential for DD analysis are

often not produced. It was no surprise therefore that most interviewees

further claimed that they often do not resource-load and level their

baseline programmes. This practice does not make baseline programmes

very reliable in their use for proving or refuting DD claims (see Section

7.5). Reasons given for such practice include that, it is: a time consuming

and difficult exercise to do; not often part of clients’ requirements; and

not considered by parties as a critical requirement.

243
(iv) Most interviewees mentioned that they often generate their baseline

programmes in linked bar chart format and gave reasons for this

preference over CPM networks as being easy to prepare, use and

maintained. Some contractors openly admitted that it is company culture

to use linked bar chart format. However, this format has difficulties in

clearly showing the links between activities when used in programming,

particularly, works involving complex sequence of activities (see Section

7.2). This format is thus not very supportive in DD analysis.

(v) Interviewees mentioned that they always produce their programmes

using computers with the most common programming software packages

relied on for this as: CS Project, Power Project, MS Project and Asta

Teamplan, the first being the most commonly used (see Section 7.2). The

literature, however, suggests that these packages are not very rigorous in

their use in DD analysis.

(vi) Most contractors claimed they update their programmes monthly but

with no involvement of the employer or his representative. They also

prepare and submit progress reports on monthly basis to the employer.

However, these reports do not often contain all the relevant information

on progress of the work, which are crucial information source for DD

analysis.

244
 (vii) Most interviewees claimed that they do not keep records on crew

productivity on major activities. The main reasons given for this practice

were, that: high resources are involved in keeping such records and staff

often do not recognise the importance of such records.

10.3 Best Practice Recommendations

In the light of these findings, it can be concluded that in practice, contractors and

consultants often resort to DD analysis methodologies that are incapable of producing

results of high accuracy or reasonable precision/certainly, which is a recipe for

disputes on DD claims. Problems related to programming and record keeping practice

has made the use of more accurate methodologies less amenable as they require

detailed and accurate programmes and project records to implement. To facilitate their

use, thereby helping to reduce or avoid disputes, the following recommendations are

suggested.

1. Employers have to make provisions in their contracts that will ensure that

contractors submit a fully resource-loaded baseline programme in an appropriate

format reflecting the true intentions of the contractor (see Sections 4.3.9 and 7.5).

The contractor must prepare this using industry standard planning software and

submit it electronically to the employer or its representative. The linked bar chart

should be the required format to be used for projects that are not considered too

complex in terms of activity relationships (see Sections 7.2). This format should

also be used when producing hardcopies versions of the programme for purposes

of site management and communication.

245
2. Provision should be made for a meeting between the contractor and the employer,

prior to commencement of work, for joint assessment of the baseline programme.

This assessment is intended for ensuring smooth approval of the baseline

programme and agreement on some aspects of the programme and its

management. It should involve a structured collaborative review process akin to

value engineering approach. The outcome of the review would be to modify the

programme if necessary or accept it as is. The key areas to consider in the review

exercise include (see Section 4.2.1):

(i) The planning software used: the software employed for programming the

work should be appraised as to its appropriateness and agreement reached

in accepting it or otherwise. Aspects of the software that should be agreed

on are the appropriate project calendar and the planning units (work days

or work weeks) to be used for planning.

(ii) Project scope: the programme should be checked to ensure that it

represents the entire project work. It should include all relevant activities

relating to design, procurement, on-site construction, subcontractors’

work and significant project milestones. The main source of reference for

this checking should be the contract documents.

(iii) Activity logic: activity dependency relationships should be reviewed for

flaws and unreasonable constraints. Parties must be in agreement with any

preferential or soft logic introduced. This will prevent artificial logic that

can hide float or exaggerate delays.

246
(iv) Activity durations: review the various activities to ensure that their

estimated durations are realistic. This will help check for incorrect activity

start date, artificial activity durations that hides float and unrealistic early

completion programme. A major source of information for this review is

the method statement, assumptions made and experience. For this reason,

it is recommended that contractors should be required to submit method

statements as well. There must be agreement on all assumptions made in

identifying the parameters and conditions used for estimating durations

for major activities. These assumptions must be clearly documented as

they eventually form the basis of the programme. There must also be an

agreement on any contingencies factored into the programme for

managing risk.

(v) Level of activity details: review to ensure that the level of detail is

appropriate for managing the project and analysing delays. One way of

achieving this is by finding out if each of the activities has an update

capability or can be measured i.e. able to determine its percent completion

during project execution. However, since the level of detail depends on

factors such as the amount of information available for planning, phase of

the project, duration and complexity of the project; it is recommended that

a rolling wave planning technique be adopted by contractors. This permits

detailed near-term planning and summary level planning of activities

whose execution lie far in future.

247
3. Having reviewed the baseline programme, the next on the agenda should be

directed towards resolving and reaching agreement on issues that can affect

smooth management of the programme. These include (see Sections 3.3, 4.1

and 4.2.3):

the frequency of programme updating;

mode of updating the programme;

level of detail to be shown in updates;

float ownership and consumption;

the type of records to be kept; and

content and frequency of site progress reporting.

4. The contract should require that electronic copies of the accepted baseline

programme and all subsequent updates, in separate files, be submitted in

addition to hard copy versions. Each programme update should be

accompanied by a detailed progress report describing any changes in the

project activities, their logic and durations which are inconsistent with the

previous progress report. This will enable the employer or its representative to

review updated programmes for accuracy for the purposes of approving it (see

Section 7.6).

5. Provision should also be made in the contract for the keeping of records that

will provide adequate evidence on the causes of delay and/or disruptions and

their impacts. Such records should include (see Sections 4.1 and 7.7):

(i) Site progress report: should provide information on the status of all

activities in the programme, delays encountered, weather

248
 conditions, changes experienced in working conditions due to DD

and site resources information (labour, plant and materials). The

report must be prepared and issued at regular frequencies as agreed

during the joint review meeting.

(ii) Job cost report: Record of actual resources and expenditure based

on progress, labour allocation sheets and associated costs; bid

estimates and subcontractors’ quotations used and project budget

and its updates. For effective cost reporting, separate cost accounts

should be established to capture the costs of resources expended in

executing potential compensable events that can be readily

identified and segregated from the original scope.

(iii) Records on actual working conditions, time periods during which

these conditions occurred, their locations and all works performed

under each working condition.

(iv) Records of crew productivity for major activities, variations ordered

and their details, drawings and other necessary information

requested and dates received and all project correspondence.

(v) Progress photographs or videotapes at critical times.

Following the above recommendations, parties can employ more reliable DAMs such

as the Time Impact Analysis, which are capable of producing more accurate results.

This will facilitate understanding and agreement among claims parties on the

resolution thereby minimising the potential for disputes.

249
10.4 A model for selecting appropriate DAM

Although the above recommendations, if followed, would ensure the availability of

meaningful records required for smooth resolution of DD claims, there are other

factors in practice unrelated to records and programmes that may influence the kind of

methodology analysts would want to use. Moreover, most forms of contract seldom

specify the methodology that should be used for analysing delays either in the course

of the project or after. Claim parties and their delay analysts therefore often adopt

their preferred DAM for the analysis based on their own accumulated experience,

expertise and intuition; which is a recipe for disputes (see Section 8.1).

Inspired by the need to address this problem, a model for the selection of an

appropriate DAM has been developed. This is intended to serve as a tool for assisting

analysts in justifying their choice of DAM to their clients and/or the trier-of-fact when

the contract is silent on the method to use. Claim parties can also rely on it to arrive at

balanced rather than partisan results if they have to come to an agreement on which

DAM should be used for analysing the claims. The development of the model

encompassed the following stages (see Section 8.4):

Identification of selection criteria

Development of flow chart indicating the model’s procedure

Identification of methods/approaches for evaluating the criteria

Application of the model to a hypothetical case study and expert validation

Identification of selection criteria

The model is based on scoring competing DAMs on 18 selection criteria in reflection

of the extent to which each methodology is suitable to use considering each of the

250
criteria in turn. These criteria were identified as relevant from a thorough review on

the body of literature on DD analysis and a pilot questionnaire survey of

acknowledged delay analysis experts. The main questionnaire survey that followed

investigated their level of importance. Weights were then assigned to each criterion in

reflection of their relative importance.

Development of flow chart indicating the model’s procedure

A flown chart describing the entire selection process was developed to serve as a

framework for the model. This involved going though three main steps: rating the

methodologies against each criterion, computing suitability scores of the

methodologies and selecting the most appropriate methodology. For each

methodology, a numerical output (total suitability score) representing its suitability

for use is generated by the model. The methodology with the highest total score

represents the most appropriate methodology.

Identification of methods/approaches for evaluating criteria

In order to compute the suitability scores, the various methodologies are to be rated

first on a scale of 0-1 based on their attributes in respect of each of the selection

criteria. The methodologies have different attributes which have to be known by the

analysts to enable him/her rate them accurately. The attributes of the four common

methodologies have been gleaned from the literature and most presented in a form of

tables and figures. The rating is facilitated by answering a number of questions as to

the extent to which a methodology is suitable for use for a given criterion. These

questions together with the various attributes form a standardised set of operations for

rating the methods.

251
Application of the model to a hypothetical case study and expert validation

The selection model was elucidated through its application to a hypothetical but

realistic scenario of a construction delay claims dispute. To ensure that the model is

valid for use in practice, it was further subjected to validation via experts’ review in a

questionnaire survey. The experts were required to express their views on the model

in terms of its significance to the industry, adequacy, completeness, comprehensibility

and cost effectiveness. The majority of the respondents were in favour of the model

proving that the model is a positive contribution to the subject of delay analysis in

construction contracts. The main objection expressed concerned a potential difficulty

of reaching agreement on the ratings of the methods as there is currently lack of

agreement among practitioners as to the definition of the various DAMs and what the

application of each actually entails.

10.5 Recommendations for further research

The proposed DAM selection model has some limitations most of which are the

issues of concern raised by the experts in the validation. Further investigations for its

most optimum implementation are therefore required. The key areas for this further

research are discussed as follows.

The relative importance weights used in the model were obtained from a cross-

sectional survey of claims practitioners from construction organisations. Such

coefficients are, however, likely to change with time due to the dynamic nature of the

industry which will affect the problem setting of methodology selection. For this

reason, it is recommended that similar surveys be repeated at periodic intervals in

order to update the model to maintain its accuracy and applicability over time.

252
Another consideration that can render the model more useful is the need for standards

for DAMs; a common ground from which their definitions and applications can be

universally understood and accepted. Such standards require an extensive research

across industry, towards establishing what constitutes the most acceptable procedures

for implementing the recognised DAMs and what the various names given to them

refer to.

The following points have also been identified as areas worthy of further research:

1. Like DAMs, the selection of appropriate DSAMs is also dictated by a number

of factors. This has contributed in part to the long standing debate surrounding

the appropriateness of using these methodologies, particularly the use of the

global method. Consequently, a research into these factors towards the

development of appropriate guidelines or decision tools for selecting the most

appropriate methodology would go a long way to assist practitioners and help

reduce the likelihood of disputes.

2. Other relevant planning and programming matters that were not investigated

in-depth in this research include: common forms of contracts, programming

specifications/provisions stipulated therein, the role of contract administrators

in managing programmes and records on behalf of employers and what they

actually do (see Section 4.3). Investigations into these would shed more light

on how best DD analysis can be improved to reduce disputes.

253
3. The whole process of how contractors manage and control their cost

information on site significantly influences the ability to resolve DD claims

amicably but has so far received very little attention. This area thus requires

further investigation.

4. The scope of this research was limited to the analysis of DD claims that are

prepared by main contractors and assessed by employers’ consultants. There is

evidence, however, that subcontractors are also often involved in such claims

but their views were not captured due to a potential complication factor and

time and cost constrains. Further research is thus required in investigating this

area.

5. There is the belief that some of the problems with DD analysis are attributable

to certain inherent features of existing programming software packages which

can be abused readily. Such abuse leads to less transparent analysis and thus

creates room for challenge with ensuing disputes. To address this problem,

research is required to investigate, among others, the capabilities and

functionality of the software packages in use.

254
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 Appendix A

- Cover letter for postal questionnaire survey

- Copy of postal survey questionnaire

297
 Cover letter for postal questionnaire survey

Author’s Address

Name
Company
Address

5th August 2006

Dear ………
ASSISTANCE FOR RESEARCH SURVEY ON THE ANALYSIS OF DELAY
AND DISRUPTION (DD) CLAIMS

Delay and Disruption (DD) claims on construction and engineering projects are some
of the most expensive, difficult, controversial and time consuming disputes to resolve
in recent times. In a bid to address the problems associated with the analysis of DD
claims, the School of Engineering and the Built Environment of the University of
Wolverhampton is sponsoring a study into the current use of DD analysis
methodologies and the associated problems affecting their usage. This research thus
aims to understand the practice and methodologies currently adopted in the analysis of
DD claims in the UK construction industry. The outcome of this research will
hopefully result in an important framework that will help project participants to
improve on the resolution of DD claims.

To achieve these aims, I would be most grateful if you could encourage a member(s)
of staff with relevant experience of DD claims preparation and settlement to
participate in the survey. You may make multiple copies of this questionnaire in case
of multiple respondents. In addition to answers to specific questions, views on any
other matters relevant to the aims of the study are most welcome. There are no correct
or incorrect responses, only much-needed expert opinion.

I would be most grateful if the completed questionnaire is returned using the enclosed
stamped addressed envelope by 31/08/2006. Should you wish to learn more about the
research project, please do not hesitate to contact me. All information received will be
treated as strictly confidential and will not be disclosed in any way.

We do appreciate that the questionnaire will take some of your valuable time but
without your kind and expert input the research objectives aimed at cannot be
realised. To this end, we would like to thank you very much for your valued and kind
participation.

Yours faithfully,

Nuhu Braimah
Research Student

298
 School of Engineering and the
Built Environment (SEBE)
University of Wolverhampton

A QUESTIONAIRE TO INVESTIGATE THE CURRENT PRACTICES

ON THE ANALYSES OF DELAY AND DISRUPTION (DD) CLAIMS

The main aim of the questionnaire is to gather and assess your views and attitudes in
relation to the use of DD analysis methodologies for preparing claims. The
questionnaire is in three (3) parts. Section A seeks to collect information on your
organisation’s background and general issues on DD claims. Sections B and C ask
for your opinions on the usage of the various delay and disruption analysis
methodologies respectively. The various methodologies may be known by different
names amongst practitioners. For this reason, a brief explanation of each is presented
in the attached notes (Appendix A & B) as reference.

We would very much appreciate if you could please spare some few minutes to
complete the questionnaire. There are no correct or incorrect responses, only your
much-needed opinion. The major benefit to participants is identified as access to the
subsequent results, which will enable you to improve on your firm’s approach to DD
analysis. Consequently, the questionnaire requests for background information of the
participant (is optional) for relaying the research findings to interested participants
and for purposes of follow-ups.

We do appreciate that the questionnaire will take some of your valuable time but
without your kind and expert input the research objectives aimed at improving the
resolution of DD claims cannot be realised. To this end, we would like to thank you
very much for your valued and kind consideration.

Please return the completed questionnaire in the self-addressed stamped envelope

provided to the address below or return it by fax.

Nuhu Braimah
Doctoral Research Student
School of Engineering and the Built Environment (SEBE)
University of Wolverhampton
Wulfruna Street, Wolverhampton
WV1 1LY

Tel:01902 32 3582
Fax:01902 32 2743
E-mail: N.Braimah@wlv.ac.uk

299
Section A: General Information

1. Which of the following best describes the nature of your organisation’s activities?
(Please tick 3 one box).
Building contracting only ‰ Civil Engineering contracting only ‰
Building and Civil ‰ Other
Engineering contracting (please specify)

2. Please give an indication of the size of your organisation in terms of annual turnover.
(Please tick 3one box).
Less than £5m ‰ £26m - £100m ‰
£5m - £25m ‰ greater than £100m ‰
3. Please indicate which of the following best describes your job in the company.
(Please tick 3 one box).
Planning ‰ Site management ‰
Estimating ‰ External Claims Consultant ‰
Commercial Management or ‰ Other
Quantity surveying (QS) (please specify)

4. Please indicate your personal experience of the following listed functions (Please tick 3 one box
in each row for each function relevant to you).
Experience (in years)
0 <5 5-10 11-20 21-30 >31
Estimating ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Programming ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Site management ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Measurement ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Claim preparation ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Legal Support ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
/Contract Management
5. Please indicate the level of involvement of the following parties in the preparation of DD claims
generally (please tick 3).
Least Highest
Involvement Involvement
1 2 3 4 5
Head of Commercial Management (or QS) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Dept. or his/her nominee
Head of Estimating Dept. or his/her nominee ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Site Manager (or Contractor’s Project Manager) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Head of Planning Dept. or his/her nominee ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
External Claims Consultant ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
In-house lawyer (Legal Counsel) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
External lawyer (Legal Counsel) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
300
6. Please indicate the extent of your agreement or disagreement with the following statements about DD
claims in practice ( please tick 3).
Strongly Strongly
disagree agree
1 2 3 4 5
a). The analysis and resolution of most DD claims are left ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
unresolved until nearer the end of the project or after
completion before resolving it
b). The resolution of DD claims are often attended by ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
considerable difficulties thereby causing disputes

7. Please indicate the frequency with which each of the following has been the reason for unsatisfactory
resolution of your DD claims (please tick3).
Not Most
frequent frequent
1 2 3 4 5
Contractual provisions not properly identified to ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
support claim
Conflicting interpretation of contractual provisions ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Failure to establish causal link ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Inadequate supporting documentation on quantum ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Insufficient breakdown of claim amount ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Inadequate effort at mitigation ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Lack of timely notice ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Inadequate/incorrect notice ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Others (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

Section B: Delay Analysis Methodologies and their Usage

8. Please indicate your level of awareness of each of the following methodologies for analysing delays
(Indicate by ticking 3 the appropriate box).
Virtually Highly
unaware aware
1 2 3 4 5
S-curve ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Global method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Net impact ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
As planned vrs. As built ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Impacted as-planned ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Collapsed as-built ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Window analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Time impact analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

301
9. Please indicate the extent to which you use each of the following methodologies for analysing delay
claims (Indicate by ticking 3 the appropriate box).
Very Very
Low High
1 2 3 4 5
S-curve ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Global method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Net impact ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
As planned vrs. As built ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Impacted as-planned ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Collapsed as-built ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Window analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Time impact analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
10. Please indicate the level of success with claims analysed by each of the following methodologies
(Indicate by ticking 3 the appropriate box).
Very Very
Low High
1 2 3 4 5
S-curve ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Global method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Net impact ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
As planned vrs. As built ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Impacted as-planned ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Collapsed as-built ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Window analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Time impact analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
11. Please indicate how frequently each of the following methodologies for analysing delays is
challenged in practice (Indicate by ticking 3 the appropriate box).
Never Always
1 2 3 4 5
S-curve ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Global method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Net impact ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
As planned vrs. As built ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Impacted as-planned ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Collapsed as-built ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Window analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Time impact analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

302
12. The applicability of delay and disruption methodologies to any claim situation depends upon a
number of factors. Please rank the following factors, including any additional factors, based on their
degree of importance in choosing an appropriate methodology (please tick 3).
Least Most
important important
1 2 3 4 5
Availability of records ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Availability of baseline programme ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Nature of baseline programme ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Availability of updated programmes ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The stage of the project ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Reason for the delay analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The other party to the claim ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Applicable legislation ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The type of contract ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The cost of using the technique ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The size of the project ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The duration of the project ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The complexity of the project ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The nature of the delaying events ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The skills of the analyst ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
The amount in dispute ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Dispute resolution forum ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Number of delays requiring analysis ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Others (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
13. Most practitioners/commentators have sought to explain the relatively low of the methodologies by
pointing out perceived obstacles to their successful usage. Please indicate how frequently each of the
following factors has been an obstacle to the use of the methodologies in practice (Please tick3).
Not Most
frequent frequent
1 2 3 4 5
Lack of familiarity with the technique ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
High cost involved in its use ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Difficulty in using the technique ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
High time consumption in using technique ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Baseline programme without CPM network ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Lack of skills in using technique ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Lack of suitable programming software ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Unrealistic baseline programme ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Poorly updated programmes ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Lack of adequate project information ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Others (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

303
Section C: Disruption Analysis Methodologies and their Usage

14. Please indicate your level of awareness of each of the following methodologies for analysing
disruption claims (Indicate by ticking 3 the appropriate box).
Virtually Highly
unaware aware
1 2 3 4 5
Measured Mile (or Productivity comparison) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Industry standards and charts ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Global (total) method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Modified global method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
System dynamics ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Earned value management ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Time and motion studies ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
15. Please indicate the extent to which you use each of the following methodologies for analysing
disruption claims (Indicate by ticking 3 the appropriate box).
Very low Very high
1 2 3 4 5
Measured Mile (or Productivity comparison) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Industry standards and charts ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Global (total) method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Modified global method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
System dynamics ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Earned value management ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Time and motion studies ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
16. Please indicate the level of success with disruption claims analysed by each of the following
methodologies (Indicate by ticking 3 the appropriate box).
Very low Very high
1 2 3 4 5
Measured Mile (or Productivity comparison) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Industry standards and charts ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Global (total) method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Modified global method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
System dynamics ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Earned value management ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Time and motion studies ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰

304
17. Please indicate how frequently each of the following methodologies for establishing disruption is
challenged in practice (Indicate by ticking 3 the appropriate box).
Never Always
1 2 3 4 5
Measured Mile (or Productivity comparison) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Industry standards and charts ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Global (total) method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Modified global method ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Jury verdict ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
System dynamics ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Earned value management ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Time and motion studies ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
Other (please specify) ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰ ‰
18. Please provide comments on what you think generally are the main problems affecting the analysis
and resolution of DD claims. (You may attach additional sheet for continuation).

305
 19. Would you be prepared to grant us an interview to further solicit your opinions on the planning
and programme issues raised by the DD analysis practice?
YES ‰ NO ‰

20. For purposes of the above, follow-up and relaying the research findings to interested participants,
could you please provide us with the following information (this is however, optional).

Name of Respondent:

Position within organisation:

Name of organisation:

Address:

Telephone: Fax:

E-mail:

Thank you very much for your time

NB: Confidentiality and anonymity are guaranteed. All information collected will conform to the
University’s Human Research Ethical procedures.

306
 Appendix B: Correlation matrix of DAM selection factors
Correlation Matrixa
Recordav Basepro Natbas Updtpg Tmdly Reasdly Othpty Apllgis Typecnt Costec Sizeprj Duraprj Cmplxpjt Natdly Sklanly Amtdsp Dsptrs Nmbdly

Recordav 1.000
Basepro 0.236 1.000
Natbas 0.180 0.495* 1.000
Updtpg 0.066 0.133 0.163 1.000
Tmdly 0.019 0.351 0.201 0.260 1.000
Reasdly 0.025 -0.065 -0.341 0.160 0.637** 1.000
Othpty -0.030 0.286 -0.019 0.048 -0.077 0.314 1.000
Apllgis -0.143 0.105 -0.184 0.398 0.133 0.334 0.367 1.000
Typecnt 0.019 0.152 -0.090 0.456* 0.253 0.312 0.268 0.407* 1.000
Costec 0.084 -0.196 -0.078 -0.029 -0.216 0.115 0.027 -0.092 0.075 1.000
Sizeprj -0.102 0.132 -0.023 0.304 0.067 0.207 0.382 0.302 0.271 0.275 1.000
Duraprj -0.155 0.151 0.057 0.393 0.198 0.166 0.329 0.296 0.340 0.102 0.803* 1.000
Cmplxpjt 0.042 0.156 0.045 0.029 -0.012 0.232 0.360 0.121 0.144 0.027 0.428* 0.471* 1.000
Natdly 0.063 0.277 0.108 0.300 0.316 0.209 0.275 0.220 0.319 -0.248 0.432* 0.440* 0.343 1.000
Sklanly -0.046 0.084 -0.077 0.481* 0.157 0.176 0.328 0.157 0.189 0.532** 0.548* 0.479* 0.164 0.288 1.000
Amtdsp 0.149 0.085 0.054 0.217 0.081 0.163 0.415* 0.093 0.162 0.173 0.444* 0.439* 0.432* 0.472* 0.322 1.000
Dsptrs 0.069 0.177 0.135 0.368 0.067 0.205 0.252 0.396 0.440** 0.279 0.415* 0.401* 0.208 0.172 0.451* 0.301 1.000
Nmbdly 0.078 -0.088 -0.056 0.280 0.249 0.103 -0.066 -0.082 0.124 0.092 0.226 0.493* 0.218 0.331 0.296 0.340 0.267 1.000
a Determinant = 8.603E-04; *Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level ; ** Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level

KMO and Bartlett's Test

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy 0.718
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square = 834.05
df = 153; Sig. p =0.0000

307
 APPENDIX C: Interview questionnaire for Investigating Programming Issues
affecting DDA

Section A General Information (Optional)

Name of Respondent:...............................................................................

Position within organisation:....................................................................

Name of organisation: ..............................................................................

Years of Experience in planning and programming:.................................

Address:.....................................................................................................

.....................................................................................................................

Telephone:........................................ Fax:............................................

E-mail:........................................................................................................

Section B Preconstruction stage Programming

1. What programming format do you often use in preparing baseline

programmes?

2. Is this format usually adopted in compliance with programming specifications

of the contract? Yes/No

3. If No to Q2, what are the reasons for adopting this format?

4. What programming software is usually used in preparing baseline

programmes?

308
5. Who are those (type of staff) often involved in the preparation of baseline
programmes? Please rank their level of involvement on a scale of 1-5 (1=
lowest involvement and 5= highest involvement).

6. Do you often carry out resource loading as part of the baseline programme
development? Yes/No

7. If No to Q6, Please provide reasons why this is not so.

8. Do you often carry out resource levelling as part of the baseline programme
development? Yes/No

9. If No to Q8, Please provide reasons why this is not so.

309
10. Which other time and cost management tools are usually developed during
preconstruction stage programming?
Tools Developed?
Manpower loading graph

Earned value management

Method statement

Others: Please specify

11. What are the main uses of baseline programmes?

Section B Construction Stage Programming

12. Is the baseline programme updated periodically during the course of a project?
Yes/No.

13. If Yes to Q12, what updating frequency is often adopted?

14. Who are those (type of staff) often involved in updating the programme?
Please rank their level of involvement on a scale of 1-5 (1= lowest
involvement and 5= highest involvement).

310
15. Do you always produce progress report for an employer? Yes/No

16. If Yes to Q15, how frequently do you produce this? (Rate this frequency on a
scale of 1-5; 1=never and 5 for always).

17. If Yes to Q15, please state the information items that are usually reported on.

18. How frequently do you track or keep records of crew productivity

(manhours/units installed) for various major project activities?

Rank on a scale of 1-5: 1=never and 5=always

19. Please comment on what you think generally are the main problems
affecting proper programming practice

Thank you very much for your time

311
APPENDIX D: SPEARMAN RANK ORDER CORRELATIONS

(i) Correlations between awareness and use of DAMs - Construction

Organisation

(ii) Correlations between awareness and use of DAMs – Consulting

Organisation

(iii) Correlations between success and challenge of DAMs - Construction

Organisation

(iv) Correlations between success and challenge of DAMs – Consulting

Organisation

(v) Correlations between awareness and use of DSAMs - Construction

Organisation

(vi) Correlations between awareness and use of DSAMs – Consulting

Organisation

(vii) Correlations between success and challenge of DSAMs -

Construction Organisation

(viii) Correlations between success and challenge of DSAMs –

Consulting Organisation

312
 (i) Correlations between Awareness and use of DAMs - Construction Organisation
S- Global Net As Impacted Collapsed Window Time
Curve method impact planned as- as-built analysis impact
vrs. as planned method
Built
S-Curve Corre.Coeff. 0.616 0.449 0.149 -0.109 0.073 0.149 0.637 0.594
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.000 0.245 0.396 0.570 0.246 0.000 0.000
N 61 63 63 63 63 62 63 62
Global Corre.Coeff. 0.182 0.441 0.407 0.237 0.269 0.309 0.232 0.310
method Sig. (2-tailed) 0.160 0.000 0.001 0.061 0.033 0.015 0.067 0.014
N 61 63 63 63 63 62 63 62
Net Corre.Coeff. 0.073 -0.011 0.518 0.396 0.384 0.332 0.025 0.087
impact Sig. (2-tailed) 0.574 0.930 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.008 0.849 0.502
N 61 63 63 63 63 62 63 62
As Corre.Coeff. 0.078 0.268 0.391 0.381 0.241 0.312 0.133 0.233
planned Sig. (2-tailed) 0.552 0.034 0.002 0.002 0.057 0.013 0.299 0.069
vrs. as
Built N 61 63 63 63 63 62 63 62
Impacted Corre.Coeff. 0.079 0.173 0.459 0.500 0.454 0.391 0.069 0.099
as- Sig. (2-tailed) 0.544 0.174 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.593 0.442
planned N 61 63 63 63 63 62 63 62
Collapsed Corre.Coeff. 0.083 0.142 0.184 0.239 0.321 0.665 0.241 0.405
as-built Sig. (2-tailed) 0.525 0.268 0.149 0.060 0.010 0.000 0.057 0.001
N 61 63 63 63 63 62 63 62
Window Corre.Coeff. 0.379 0.233 -0.012 -0.139 -0.104 0.198 0.710 0.655
analysis Sig. (2-tailed) 0.003 0.066 0.925 0.276 0.419 0.123 0.000 0.000
N 61 63 63 63 63 63 63 62
Time Corre.Coeff. 0.577 0.444 0.191 -0.204 -0.078 0.167 0.688 0.806
impact Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.000 0.136 0.112 0.548 0.194 0.000 0.000
N 63 63 62 62 63 62 62 62

313
 (ii) Correlations between Awareness and use of DAMs - Consulting Organisation
S- Global Net As Impacted Collapsed Window Time
Curve method impact planned as- as-built analysis impact
vrs. as planned method
Built
S-Curve Corre.Coeff. 0.468 0.018 0.136 -0.205 0.024 0.244 0.290 0.031
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.008 0.889 0.286 0.105 0.853 0.052 0.019 0.809
N 65 67 67 67 64 66 65 65
Global Corre.Coeff. 0.134 0.375 0.151 -0.162 -0.026 0.160 0.306 0.193
method Sig. (2-tailed) 0.293 0.077 0.234 0.196 0.841 0.206 0.013 0.120
N 67 65 67 66 64 67 64 63
Net Corre.Coeff. 0.054 -0.048 0.228 0.153 -0.068 0.002 0.259 0.194
impact Sig. (2-tailed) 0.674 0.705 0.035 0.228 0.595 0.990 0.037 0.121
N 66 66 65 64 64 67 65 63
As Corre.Coeff. 0.110 0.033 0.161 0.198 0.125 0.190 0.274 0.130
planned Sig. (2-tailed) 0.388 0.797 0.205 0.029 0.325 0.133 0.027 0.298
vrs. as
Built N 66 65 64 67 67 64 65 66
Impacted Corre.Coeff. 0.160 -0.026 0.165 -0.121 0.410 0.192 0.520 0.284
as- Sig. (2-tailed) 0.206 0.838 0.193 0.343 0.018 0.129 0.000 0.022
planned N 64 67 67 64 64 64 65 65
Collapsed -
as-built Corre.Coeff. 0.237 -0.370 -0.196 -0.260 -0.201 0.277 0.531 -0.018
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.060 0.003 0.120 0.038 0.111 0.003 0.000 0.888
N 67 64 67 66 67 66 67 67
Window -
analysis Corre.Coeff. 0.086 -0.295 -0.090 -0.215 -0.219 0.046 0.431 0.183
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.499 0.018 0.479 0.089 0.083 0.716 0.000 0.145
N 65 64 64 67 67 64 65 65
Time -
impact Corre.Coeff. 0.129 -0.004 0.020 -0.124 -0.031 -0.194 0.293 0.289
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.308 0.972 0.873 0.326 0.809 0.125 0.018 0.019
N 63 65 66 65 66 66 65 67

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 (iii) Correlations between success and challenge of DAMs - Construction Organisation
S- Global Net As Impacted Collapsed Window Time
Curve method impact planned as- as-built analysis impact
vrs. as planned method
Built
S-Curve Corre.Coeff. 0.274 -0.197 -0.122 0.118 0.190 0.368 0.414 0.377
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.045 0.150 0.378 0.393 0.173 0.007 0.003 0.006
N 60 61 61 63 63 62 62 62
Global Corre.Coeff. 0.172 -0.174 -0.174 0.095 0.033 -0.003 0.186 0.171
method Sig. (2-tailed) 0.210 0.003 0.205 0.482 0.812 0.985 0.186 0.226
N 63 60 61 61 62 62 59 62
Net Corre.Coeff. 0.148 0.147 0.191 0.071 0.116 0.057 0.167 0.100
impact Sig. (2-tailed) 0.285 0.286 0.038 0.604 0.404 0.687 0.237 0.482
N 61 63 63 63 63 62 63 62
As -
planned Corre.Coeff. 0.534 0.365 0.197 -0.203 -0.011 -0.191 -0.418 -0.399
vrs. as Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.006 0.154 0.016 0.937 0.171 0.002 0.004
Built N 61 61 63 63 62 62 63 63
Impacted -
as- Corre.Coeff. 0.346 0.421 0.229 -0.027 -0.056 -0.123 -0.406 -0.298
planned Sig. (2-tailed) 0.011 0.001 0.095 0.843 0.009 0.381 0.003 0.034
N 60 63 61 63 63 62 63 62
Collapsed Corre.Coeff. 0.127 0.353 0.266 -0.010 0.199 -0.150 0.090 0.058
as-built Sig. (2-tailed) 0.364 0.008 0.052 0.944 0.149 0.030 0.530 0.681
N 62 62 62 62 63 61 63 63
Window Corre.Coeff. 0.588 -0.208 -0.075 0.225 0.136 0.451 -0.442 0.533
analysis Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.131 0.592 0.098 0.332 0.001 0.000 0.000
N 59 59 62 62 61 60 60 61
Time Corre.Coeff. 0.636 -0.284 -0.137 0.256 0.285 0.491 0.681 -0.505
impact Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.035 0.325 0.056 0.037 0.000 0.000 0.000
N 62 62 63 63 61 62 63 63

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 (iv) Correlations between Success and Challenge of DAMs – Consulting Organisation
S- Global Net As Impacted Collapsed Window Time
Curve method impact planned as-planned as-built analysis impact
vrs. as method
Built
S-Curve Corre.Coeff. -0.352 -0.525 -0.581 -0.516 -0.422 -0.573 -0.554 -0.399
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002
N 66 67 65 65 67 66 64 63
Global Corre.Coeff. -0.333 -0.298 -0.518 -0.330 -0.389 -0.546 -0.511 -0.311
method Sig. (2-tailed) 0.011 0.021 0.000 0.011 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.015
N 66 65 64 66 64 67 64 65
Net impact Corre.Coeff. -0.408 -0.487 0.443 -0.338 -0.376 -0.539 -0.464 -0.272
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.037
N 66 65 67 66 64 65 66 66
As planned Corre.Coeff. -0.327 -0.300 -0.303 -0.365 -0.192 -0.319 -0.472 -0.309
vrs. as Built Sig. (2-tailed) 0.012 0.019 0.018 0.004 0.149 0.013 0.000 0.014
N 65 65 63 67 66 66 65 65
Impacted as- Corre.Coeff. -0.203 -0.084 0.020 0.004 -0.256 -0.049 -0.071 -0.133
planned Sig. (2-tailed) 0.127 0.527 0.879 0.976 0.989 0.711 0.594 0.315
N 67 67 67 67 65 66 66 66
Collapsed Corre.Coeff. 0.170 0.337 0.522 0.481 0.138 -0.281 0.323 0.166
as-built Sig. (2-tailed) 0.201 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.307 0.031 0.013 0.209
N 63 63 64 67 67 67 64 65
Window Corre.Coeff. 0.248 0.443 0.556 0.523 0.225 0.516 -0.488 0.305
analysis Sig. (2-tailed) 0.060 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.093 0.000 0.000 0.018
N 66 66 65 65 65 66 66 66
Time impact Corre.Coeff. -0.046 0.274 0.392 0.336 0.118 0.114 0.024 -0.321
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.730 0.032 0.002 0.008 0.382 0.388 0.856 0.032
N 65 67 65 66 67 66 64 63

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 (v) Correlations between Awareness and use of DSAMs - Construction Organisation
Measured Industry Global Modifield System Earned Value Time &
mile studies/charts method global dynamics Mangt motion studies

Measured Corre.Coeff. 0.419 0.229 0.131 0.138 0.177 0.315 -0.123

mile Sig. (2-tailed) 0.001 0.073 0.315 0.289 0.172 0.013 0.339
N 62 62 63 61 61 62 62
Industry Corre.Coeff. 0.324 0.584 0.252 0.265 0.200 0.261 0.171
studies/charts Sig. (2-tailed) 0.010 0.000 0.050 0.039 0.123 0.040 0.184
N 62 63 61 63 61 63 62
Global Corre.Coeff. -0.179 0.203 0.737 0.609 -0.231 0.036 -0.145
method Sig. (2-tailed) 0.163 0.113 0.000 0.000 0.073 0.783 0.261
N 62 62 63 61 61 62 63
Modifield Corre.Coeff. -0.065 0.117 0.382 0.641 -0.055 0.053 0.018
global Sig. (2-tailed) 0.618 0.363 0.002 0.000 0.675 0.680 0.892
N 62 62 61 61 61 62 62
System Corre.Coeff. 0.467 0.468 -0.295 -0.047 0.679 0.292 0.538
dynamics Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.000 0.021 0.719 0.000 0.021 0.000
N 62 62 63 61 61 62 62
Earned Corre.Coeff. 0.023 0.305 0.313 0.398 0.227 0.840 -0.041
Value Mangt Sig. (2-tailed) 0.859 0.016 0.014 0.002 0.079 0.000 0.751
N 62 62 61 61 63 62 62
Time & Corre.Coeff. 0.618 0.439 -0.313 -0.231 0.280 -0.044 0.701
motion Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.000 0.014 0.073 0.029 0.731 0.000
studies
N 62 62 63 61 63 62 63

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 (vi) Correlations between Awareness and use of DSAMs – Consulting Organisation
Measured Industry Global Modifield System Earned Value Time &
mile studies/charts method global dynamics Mangt motion studies
Measured Corre.Coeff. 0.341 0.374 -0.113 0.156 0.174 0.220 -0.009
mile Sig. (2-tailed) 0.007 0.003 0.380 0.227 0.183 0.089 0.943
N 67 66 64 62 60 61 62
Industry Corre.Coeff. 0.132 0.768 -0.229 -0.205 0.108 0.175 -0.051
studies/charts Sig. (2-tailed) 0.307 0.000 0.073 0.109 0.413 0.178 0.693
N 63 65 66 65 66 65 67
Global Corre.Coeff. 0.197 0.305 0.256 0.172 0.061 0.163 -0.215
method Sig. (2-tailed) 0.125 0.016 0.038 0.181 0.645 0.208 0.094
N 65 67 67 67 66 65 65
Modifield Corre.Coeff. 0.230 0.209 -0.086 0.430 0.094 0.180 -0.018
global Sig. (2-tailed) 0.072 0.104 0.506 0.002 0.475 0.165 0.892
N 65 64 64 67 64 65 65
System Corre.Coeff. 0.095 0.317 -0.451 -0.251 0.656 0.510 0.201
dynamics Sig. (2-tailed) 0.466 0.013 0.000 0.051 0.000 0.000 0.121
N 67 64 67 66 66 67 67
Earned Corre.Coeff. 0.249 0.130 -0.169 0.086 0.386 0.547 0.030
Value Mangt Sig. (2-tailed) 0.053 0.318 0.193 0.512 0.002 0.000 0.819
N 66 66 65 64 67 65 63
Time & Corre.Coeff. 0.161 0.309 -0.215 0.013 0.338 0.311 0.201
motion Sig. (2-tailed) 0.216 0.015 0.096 0.921 0.009 0.015 0.028
studies
N 66 65 64 67 64 65 66

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(vii) Correlations between success and challenge of DSAMs - Construction Organisation
Measured Industry Global Modifield System Earned Value Time &
mile studies/charts method global dynamics Mangt motion studies
Measured Corre.Coeff. -0.182 -0.258 0.089 0.044 -0.169 0.091 -0.160
mile Sig. (2-tailed) 0.004 0.055 0.520 0.757 0.245 0.529 0.257
N 61 61 60 60 63 63 62
Industry Corre.Coeff. 0.053 -0.231 0.025 0.066 0.197 0.238 0.317
studies/charts Sig. (2-tailed) 0.698 0.009 0.853 0.640 0.174 0.096 0.021
N 63 62 63 61 61 63 61
Global Corre.Coeff. -0.028 0.235 -0.156 -0.130 0.490 0.131 0.257
method Sig. (2-tailed) 0.836 0.082 0.000 0.353 0.000 0.370 0.066
N 60 63 62 61 63 62 63
Modifield Corre.Coeff. -0.118 0.089 -0.120 0.205 0.180 -0.120 -0.045
global Sig. (2-tailed) 0.397 0.519 0.382 0.036 0.215 0.413 0.753
N 63 62 62 63 61 62 63
System Corre.Coeff. 0.177 -0.035 -0.238 -0.235 -0.303 0.036 0.166
dynamics Sig. (2-tailed) 0.204 0.805 0.086 0.098 0.002 0.810 0.249
N 62 62 61 59 63 61 60
Earned Corre.Coeff. 0.072 0.014 0.115 -0.110 -0.007 -0.521 0.160
Value Mangt Sig. (2-tailed) 0.604 0.919 0.414 0.443 0.962 0.009 0.263
N 63 62 63 63 62 63 61
Time & Corre.Coeff. 0.084 0.146 -0.415 -0.131 0.429 0.178 0.295
motion Sig. (2-tailed) 0.541 0.282 0.002 0.348 0.002 0.216 0.001
studies
N 63 62 63 63 63 63 61

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 (viii) Correlations between success and challenge of DSAMs - Consulting Organisation
Measured Industry Global Modifield System Earned Value Time &
mile studies/charts method global dynamics Mangt motion studies
Measured Corre.Coeff. -0.303 0.141 0.657 0.442 0.328 0.321 0.272
mile Sig. (2-tailed) 0.019 0.280 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.015 0.041
N 66 65 67 65 64 65 66
Industry Corre.Coeff. 0.250 0.227 0.501 0.224 0.243 0.079 0.152
studies/charts Sig. (2-tailed) 0.054 0.032 0.000 0.088 0.089 0.560 0.257
N 65 66 65 64 67 65 63
Global Corre.Coeff. 0.124 0.326 -0.133 -0.079 0.116 0.169 0.161
method Sig. (2-tailed) 0.344 0.010 0.008 0.554 0.420 0.210 0.231
N 63 64 61 59 50 57 57
Modifield Corre.Coeff. 0.082 0.189 0.094 0.212 0.088 0.162 0.145
global Sig. (2-tailed) 0.532 0.145 0.471 0.005 0.543 0.228 0.281
N 63 64 63 65 66 67 67
System Corre.Coeff. 0.008 -0.162 -0.316 -0.207 -0.042 0.058 0.071
dynamics Sig. (2-tailed) 0.955 0.230 0.017 0.125 0.008 0.682 0.613
N 66 67 66 65 65 63 64
Earned Corre.Coeff. 0.115 0.034 0.162 0.113 0.122 -0.459 0.129
Value Mangt Sig. (2-tailed) 0.385 0.794 0.215 0.394 0.397 0.022 0.345
N 64 66 65 66 66 67 67
Time & Corre.Coeff. 0.172 0.206 -0.116 0.035 0.406 0.434 0.419
motion Sig. (2-tailed) 0.190 0.112 0.374 0.792 0.003 0.001 0.002
studies
N 67 64 65 64 66 63 64

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 Appendix E

- Cover letter for validation questionnaire survey

- Copy of validation questionnaire

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 Cover letter for validation questionnaire survey

Author’s Address

Name
Company
Address

3rd March 2008

Dear…….

ASSISTANCE FOR EXPERT VALIDATION OF A MODEL FOR

SELECTING APPROPRIATE DELAY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

You may recall the questionnaire survey on the use of delay analysis methodologies
(DAM) in the UK that was sent to you for feedback some 16 months ago. Under the
sponsorship of University of Wolverhampton, this survey was carried out as part of a
wider research work aimed at identifying current problems with delay and disruption
analysis towards the development of an appropriate framework for improvement.

Information gathered from literature review, the survey and subsequent interviews
was used to draw deductions and conclusions in respect of the research objectives. On
the basis of the findings, a particular problem area was isolated for further
consideration, namely: The decision to select any of the myriad methodologies
available for analysing delays in any claims situation requires careful consideration
of a number of criteria but there is no decision aids available for analysts to rely on
to ensure a more objective selection process. In an attempt to redress this, a DAM
selection decision model is proposed. The model is mainly based on scoring
competing DAMs on 18 selection criteria identified as relevant from a thorough
review on the body of literature on delay analysis and the questionnaire survey.

It is thought that this model will be a very useful resource to practitioners, particularly
for analysts faced with the need to justify a chosen methodology to their clients or
triers-of-fact. However, to ensure that the model is valid for use in practice, there is
the need for experts’ validation. The purpose of this letter is therefore to seek your
assistance on this task of expert evaluation. In this respect, I have enclosed a copy of
the model together with a worked example to clarify its application. Also enclosed is
a questionnaire indicating areas where your comments are sought.

The research is in its conclusion stage, so it would be of a great help to me if the

completed questionnaire is returned using the enclosed stamped addressed envelope
by 24th March 2008. If you are unable to complete the questionnaire, any general
comment you are able to offer would be much appreciated. All information received
will be treated as strictly confidential.

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Please do not hesitate to contact me for further details or clarifications if there are any
particular points on the model that are unclear. I would be happy to discuss any
queries by telephone, e-mail or via a meeting with you, whichever is preferable.

We do appreciate that this validation will take some of your valuable time but without
the kind contribution of experts like yourself, the continuing search for solutions to
problems of delay analysis would not be successful.

Please return the completed questionnaire in the self-addressed stamped envelope

provided to the address below or return it by fax.

Many thanks and look forward to hearing from you soon.

Yours sincerely

Nuhu Braimah
(PhD Research Student)

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 School of Engineering and the
Built Environment (SEBE)
University of Wolverhampton

A QUESTIONAIRE FOR VALIDATING A MODEL FOR THE

SELECTION OF DELAY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

The aim of this questionnaire is to gather and assess experts’ opinions on the attached
model, which is intended for assisting analysts in the selection of appropriate delay
analysis methodology. This is meant for validating the proposed model as to its
significance to the industry, workability in practice and adequacy in addressing the
decision problem confronting analysts on DAM selection.

The questionnaire is in three (3) parts. Section A seeks to collect information on your
background; Sections B and C ask for your opinions or comments on general and
specific aspects of the model, respectively. There are no correct or incorrect
responses, only your much-needed opinion.

Please return the completed questionnaire in the self-addressed stamped envelope

provided to the address below or return it by fax.

We would like to thank you in advance for your valued and kind consideration.

If you would like any further information about the research, please let me know.

Nuhu Braimah
Doctoral Research Student
School of Engineering and the Built Environment (SEBE)
University of Wolverhampton
Wulfruna Street, Wolverhampton
WV1 1SB

Tel:01902 32 1271
Fax:01902 32 2743
E-mail: N.Braimah@wlv.ac.uk

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Section A: Background of Respondent

Name of Respondents (optional):………………………………………………………………

Profession: ……………………………………………………………………………………..

Qualification:……………………………………………………………………………………

Work your organisation is involved in:…………………………………………………………

……………………………………………………………

Current job designation:………………………………………………………………………..

Years of experience in delay and disruption claims resolutions: ……………………………...

Section B: General Impression on the model

1. Does the model address an important problem in the field of delay and disruption analysis?
yes, quite significant ‰
yes, but not significant ‰
no, would make no difference ‰
not sure of its significance ‰
Comments (if any)……………………………………………………………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2. Would you say the model is capable of assisting analysts in the selection of appropriate delay analysis
methodology?
yes, highly capable ‰
yes, capable ‰
no, not capable ‰
not sure of its capability ‰
Comments (if any)……………………………………………………………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
3. Would you say the model is simple, clear and easy to understand and use with little or no practical
difficulties?
Yes ‰
No ‰

4. If No to Q3, please comment on the specific aspects of the model that, in your view, are likely to
cause major difficulties to its use.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
5. What is your opinion on the resources needed to apply the model in real life selection exercise?
would be too costly to operate at current resource levels ‰
would not be too costly to operate at current resource levels ‰
the benefits of using the model justifies any resource requirements ‰
Comment (if any)……………………………………………………………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

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6. What is your opinion on the description of the model and its lay out?
comprehensive ‰
adequate ‰
poor ‰
Comment (if any)……………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
7. In your opinion, are there any further matters of importance which ought to be included in the model
or considered?
Yes ‰
No ‰
8. If Yes to Q7, please specify:
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Section C: Impression on the model’s techniques

9. What is your opinion on the scale of “0-1” adopted for rating the methodologies against the selection
criteria?
very suitable ‰
suitable ‰
not suitable ‰
not sure of its suitability ‰
Comments (if any)……………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
10. What is your opinion on the approaches/methods proposed for evaluating the selection criteria in
rating the methodologies?
very suitable ‰
suitable ‰
not suitable ‰
not sure of its suitability ‰
Comments (if any)……………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
11. Are there any further approaches/methods, which in your opinion are important to consider in rating
the methodologies against the criteria?
Yes ‰
No ‰
12. If Yes to Q11, please specify:
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
13. What is your opinion on the attributes of the delay analysis methodologies defined in Tables 2 to 6
and figure 1, in respect of the various selection criteria?
very suitable ‰
suitable ‰
not suitable ‰
not sure of its suitability ‰
Comments (if any)……………………………………………………………………………………

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14. In your opinion, are there any other important attributes or characteristics that describe these
methodologies but were not considered?
Yes ‰
No ‰
15. If you have answered Yes to Q14, please list these attributes or characteristics of the methods that
ought to have been considered.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………….
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
…………………………………………………………………………………………………..
16. Please provide any other general comments that you have on the model or suggestions for
improvement (continue on a separate sheet if necessary)
………………………………………………………………………………………………................
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………….................
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
……………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………….
…………………………………………………………………………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
……………………………………………………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
…………………………………………………………………………………………………

Thank you very much for your time

NB: Confidentiality and anonymity are guaranteed. All information collected will conform to the
University’s Human Research Ethical procedures

327