Section Name:

The Carbon Cycle & Global Climate Change

Part 1: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Levels in our Atmosphere over Time

The more carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the more heat from the
sun is trapped in the atmosphere. The graph below (Fig. 1) is from measurements of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere from March, 1958 Mauna Loa observatory on Hawai’i. This site is thought to be the least
polluted air on the Earth because there is no source of air pollution upwind for thousands of miles from
Mauna Loa. NOTE: units of ppm = atmospheric concentration levels in parts per million = 0.0001%.

Date of Observation

Fig. 1: Atmospheric CO2 levels at Mona Loa Observatory since 1958 Source: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

 What is the current atmospheric CO2 level? . (Don’t forget to put down the units)

 Approximately how much does the amount of CO2 level vary over the course of one year:
?

 Describe in detail how the CO2 levels vary with seasons/months of the year. (Hint for close up of one
year go to the link listed above and click on the link for “One Year” of data):

 What advantages are there to measuring CO2 content in the atmosphere in Hawaii rather than an on
the continental United States?

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Fill in the blanks below to calculate the total change in Total Change in Average CO2 concentrations:
(Again: Don’t forget to include the units)

 Ave. CO2 Levels today - Ave CO2 in 1957 = Total Change in CO2

What is the Average Annual Change in CO2 concentration:

 Total change( )÷ # of years of data collection ( ) = Average Rate of Change

The wiggles seen on the graph in Figure 1 result from seasonal changes in CO2 concentration. This is driven
by changes during the winter season of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere (which has more land mass and a
higher population than the Southern Hemisphere).

 Suggest 2 reasons why CO2 concentration would increase when it is winter in the Northern
Hemisphere. (Hint: consider what happens to plants in the winter time and how this would affect
CO2 levels in the atmosphere and consider how the behavior of humans changes in the winter time.)
1.

2.

To fully understand the issues related to greenhouse gases and global change, we need to examine the
past to see if CO2 levels have changed over time and if so, to what extent. We can use ice cores from
Antarctica to understand past variations in trace gases. As snow falls it traps small amounts of air in the
spaces between the snowflakes. Some of this gas forms small bubbles as the snow metamorphoses into
glacial ice. These bubbles become fossil atmospheres providing us with a means to examine the gas content
of the atmosphere up to 800,000 years in the past. The vertical bar at the end is the increase in atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels over the past two centuries and before 2007. (http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/)

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Figure 2: Fluctuations in temperature (black line) and in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (gray area)
over the past 410,00 years. Vertical Axis Units: ppmv = parts per million (by volume). Horizontal axis = years. See
this graphic in color at the source: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3057.aspx

 What are the maximum and minimum CO2 levels before present times
(= “0” years ago on the graph above).

 What is the natural range in CO2? = Max CO2 - Min CO2 levels:

 What is the minimum number of years it takes for the natural system to change from a high CO2
levels to low CO2 levels? = What is the fastest time in which this has occurred naturally?

How much did temperatures change during this same time period ?

 How much higher is today’s CO2 level compared to the maximum level of CO2 before the year “0” (=
before human industrialization).

Figure 3. Global Fossil

Carbon Emissions from
human activity. The burning
of different fossil fuels is a
major cause of rising CO2 levels-
follow the link below and scroll
down to read about the graph
pictured to answer the questions
below.

To properly read this figure you’ll need to see it in color at: Also check this link if you need help
answering the questions below.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel.

 Using the color pencils provided – trace the color indicated below on the appropriate line on the
graph above:
Petroleum = Purple Coal = Green Natural Gas = Red (or Orange) Cement production = Blue

 What is a fossil fuel?

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  Fill in the table below shown when each resource was the primary source of CO2 emissions to the
atmosphere. If a resource never was the primary source of CO2, then write “never.”
Dates resource was primary source of CO2
Petroleum

Coal

Natural Gas

Cement Production

 What other cause of increasing CO2 levels is shown on this graph besides the burning of fossil fuels?

In summary: there have been natural variations in carbon dioxide through time as reported from this ice core
and these changes reflect changes in global temperature. However, just because carbon dioxide goes up
during a warm period, that does not mean that carbon dioxide necessarily caused the warming (although it is
consistent with our model). Let’s look at some additional information and some recent climate data to
further consider the relationship between CO2 and temperature.

Part 2: Regional Temperature Records (the United States):

Below is a figure showing the annual and five-year running mean surface air temperature in the contiguous 48
United States (= 1.6% of the Earth's surface) since 1880 compared to the mean (average) temperatures from 1951-
1980. This is kind of an odd way to show the data, but it allows us to look for see how average temperatures have
changed over the last century. Each square represents the average temperature for one year. The wiggly line
represents the average temperatures over a 5-year period. Although this kind of graph does not show the actual
temperatures, it allows you to look for potential long-term changes in temperature over time.
You can find the actual data for this figure and a color version of the graph on the web at:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ (you’ll need to scroll down to find this graph)

Temperature
Anomaly
°C

Year
5
 YEAR

 Examine the graph, or check out a table of the data shown above (on the website) and fill in the table below.
Then determine whether or not temperature show a trend over time (is there a definite change?).
Number of years with Number of years with Number of years with
Time period mean Temp. > 0° to +1° mean Temp. more than mean Temp. < 0° to -1°
above normal +1° above normal below normal
1880-1899
1900-1919
1920-1939
1940-1959
1960-1979
1980-1999
2000-2016*
Trend over time? Warming / Cooling, Warming / Cooling, Warming / Cooling,
(circle one) No-trend No-trend No-trend
*Note the last time-period is shorter than the others. You will need to take this into consideration when looking for evidence of
trends
Summary for Regional Temperature Records (the United States)
Date
Hottest year
Hottest 5-year period
Coldest year
Coldest 5-year period

 How do the dates of the coldest year compare to date of the coldest 5-year period (are the dates the
same)?

 How do the dates of the hottest year compare to date of the hottest 5-year period.

 If you are looking for trend through time is it easier to identify changes in yearly mean temperatures
or the 5-year mean temperature?

 Overall, do your conclusions change depending on which time-frame you examine? Explain your
answer.

 On average have temperatures risen or fallen since 1900 in the US? After looking at this data set, do
how confident are you that there is an overall change in temperature? Explain your answer.
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 We must be careful not to use one example to try and explain global temperatures. Consider what other
factors beyond global climate change may be influencing temperatures in USA.

 How has the amount of paved streets and parking lots changed in USA since 1900? How would this
affect temperatures that were measured in the middle of large cities (Hint: What is like to walk across
a parking lot barefoot in summertime?)

Part 3: Global Temperature Record

Below is a figure showing variations in GLOBAL annual since 1880 compared to the mean (average)
temperatures from 1951-1980 average. The dotted black line is the annual mean and the solid red line is the
five-year mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates due to incomplete spatial sampling of data.
Compare this graph to the one for USA and answer the questions below.

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 Year
For a color version of this graph or to see that data in table form go to: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/
 Fill in the table below based on the global temperature record:
Number of years with Number of years with Number of years with
Time period mean Temp. > 0° to +1° mean Temp. more than mean Temp. < 0° to -1°
above normal +1° above normal below normal
1880-1899
1900-1919
1920-1939
1940-1959
1960-1979
1980-1999
2000-2016*
Trend over time? Warming / Cooling, Warming / Cooling, Warming / Cooling, No-
(circle one) No-trend No-trend trend
*Note the last time-period is much shorter than the others. You will need to take this into consideration when looking for evidence
of trends

 Predict how many years will be > 0° to +1° above normal for the time period from 2000-2019:

 Compared to the US temperature data, are the trends shown by the global data set: stronger/ weaker/
or the same strength (circle one).

 Have global temperatures risen or fallen since 1900, and how much have they changed? .

 What is the size of the overall temperature changes in US and how does this compare to the
size of the global temperature change?

 Are the years with the highest and lowest annual temperatures the same on both graphs? If not how
much do they differ?

 Are the decades with the highest and lowest average temperatures the same on both graphs? If
not how much to they differ (i.e. how much time is there between them)?

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 Suggest a reason why temperature in USA differ from the average global temperatures:

 How does the direction and variability of global temperatures compare with the direction and
variability of atmospheric CO2 levels? Explain your answer and suggest a reason for any difference
you observe.