The Past and Present Society

Medieval Prophecy and Religious Dissent

Author(s): Robert E. Lerner
Source: Past & Present, No. 72 (Aug., 1976), pp. 3-24
Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of The Past and Present Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/650326
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 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUS
DISSENT*
IN I 463A GERMAN BY THE NAME OF MEISTER THEODORIUS, THEN
residing in Apulia, sent a prophecy of events he said would soon
transpire back to his native land, explaixiingthat his foreknowledge
was vouchsafed to him by a divine revelation while he was lying in
bed.l I464, he wrote, was going to be both a terrible and a wonderful
year. Among the terrible things that would happen everywhere
would be widespread mortality and the shedding of blood, three
simultaneous eclipses of the sun and the moon, an earthquake
throughoutthe whole world that would strikewith such unprecedented
force that mountains would lean on mountains, a great flood, and the
appearancein pools of water of creatures with fiery hoes which they
would use to drag in people and kill them. Nature would be so out of
joint that miracles would proliferate among cattle, and sea-
monsters would fight with each other.
God, however, would still be in his heaven. In fact, Theodorius
clearly envisaged the terrors of I464 tO be a flaming out of the great
refiner's fire, as can be seen by his enumeration of certain localized
upheavals that he explicitly deemed to be retributory. The
Venetians would spread poison in wells but be punished for their evil
by the miraculous levitation of the doors of St. Mark's so high in
the sky that they could be seen from as far away as Treviso. All
the bishops of the Rhine, who, as Theodorius said, spent their time
in "lewdness, and arrogance,and gluttony, and wantonness, and who
* A shorterversion of this paper was read at the meeting of The American
Society of Church History in Toronto, I8 April I975. Most of the research
for it was done while on travel leave generously funded by the National
Endowmentfor the Humanitiesand NorthwesternUniversity. I wish to thank
Professor James J. Sheehan for his extreir,elyhelpful advice.
1 The text is found in four MSS.: Hersog-August-Bibliothek,Wolfenbuttel
go Aug. 2?, fos. 40 6r (hereafterMS. W.); BibliothequeNationale, Paris, MS.
Allemand I29, fos. 25r-27V (hereafter MS. P.)- Staatsarchiv, Nurnberg
"Nurnberger Hs. Nr. I4" fos. sor-s2r (hereafter MS. N.)- Universitats-
bibliothek, Munich, 2? 68i, fos. II7V-II9r (hereafter MS. M.). MSS. W.
and P. provide the best readings. I am grateful to Fraulein Edith Bohm
Munich,,for callingmy attentionto the existenceof MSS. P. and N. (Erl. Bohm
has been workingon a doctoraldissertationon MS. M. that should cast much
light on Theodorius's prophecy and several other popular prophetic texts.)
I date the prophecy to I463 because it refers to Duke Albert of Austria as a
natural enemy of the Bohemian King George Podiebrad: Albert in fact
emergedas George'senemyas the resultof events of December I462, and died in
Dec. I463. (MS. NV.prudentlyleaves out Albert'sname since the manussript
was written after it became certainthat Theodorius'sprophecyabout the dead
duke could never come to pass.)
4 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER72

scorn all pious Christians, and who squander their alms on their
cursed lives and wantonness" would "be driven from their power and
handed over to their enemies and some murdered with the sword".
Furthermore,"some monasteriesand parish houses in Germanlands"
would "be burned because of the great sin and evil and Iewdness
that the morlksand priests secretly and openly commit". Similarly,
most of the "faithless people of Bohemia" (the Hussites) would be
slaughtered by the Duke of Austria.2
All these retributions, then, would help to make a better world.
Theodorius pointed further in this direction by predicting that power
would be taken from both heretics and heathen, and Christianitymade
humbler. The pope and "all his priests" would be converted
(presumably away from their former evil ways), and all clerics who
spoke Latin would be so scorned that none of them would hold back
anything from the laity any more. Christianitywould be threatened
from the outside by the Saracens, who would elect a king to lead a
great army against Rome. But when the army arrivedthe king would
be converted to the Christian faith and become the Western
Emperor. Then he would conquer the Holy Sepulchre, which would
never again fall into heathen hands. Finally, at the end of the year, a
newly-elected pope would unite with the triumphant Emperor and
other kings and princes-of both German and Romance-speaking
lands - to present a common front against Antichrist.3
2 The originaltext of the last three predictionsin MS. W. is: "Item alle die
Bischoff bey dem reyn die do ire zeit und tag in unkewsch und hoffart und
fressereyund ubermutverpringenund alle frumencristenmenschenversmehen
und haben das almuszen in irem verfluchtenleben offt in ubermut verthun
und aus gegeben, die werden vertribenvon irem gewalt und iren feinten in ire
hant gegeben und ettlich mit dem swert erschlagen. . . Item in dem selben jar
werden etlich closter und pfarhoffin den tewtschen landenversinckenund vill
verprentvon der grossensund und poszheitund unkeuschwegen, die dy munich
und priester tun und heimlich und offenlich treyben ... Item ein hertzog
[MS. P.: "hertzogAlbrecht"]von osterreichsol das ungelaubigvolk von Beham
erschlagenausserhalbdes selben landes den meysten teil".
3 MS. W.: "... die cristenheitwirt demutigerdan sie vor ye gewessenist....
In dem selben jar sol sich Rom und alle sein briesterschafftverkeren....
Item es sullen auch alle gelert zungen des selben egenantenjarsalle fast werden
verschmecht,also das sich ir kaynermer unter den leyen nit wol gehalten kan
[MS. P.: "nit wol enthalten mag".] ... Item einen kunigk werden die
heyden in dem selbigen iar erwelen unter in mit dem sie ein gross her werden
aus schickengen rom zu vertilgen die cristenheit. Und darnachwen er dahin
kumpt so sol er in einem gesicht bekertwerden zu cristenlichemglawben und
sol do selbst keyser werden.... Item der selbe kayser der sol mit seinen
frewnten der heydenschafftdie er bekerenist und bekerdt hat in dem selben
jaregen Iherusalemziehen und das heylig grab gewinnenund sol denn heyden
nymer mer in ir gewalt kumen.... Und darnach in dem selben jare wirt
gesetzt ein Babst der sich kayser, fursten, und herren untertenig wirdt
machenvon gnaden Teutscherrund welischerlandt, und von der zwelff gepurt
wegen in dem landt zu Babiloniadas sich erzeigenist". [MS. P.: "wirtgesetzt
eyn pabst der sich mit dem keyszerund kunig, herren, und fursten vereinigen
wirt von frideswegen dewtszhund welischerlanndtvon derposzengepurtwegen
in dem land zu Babiloniady sich ertzeigen ist".]
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT 5

Theodorius's flaming prophecy is just one of many that could be

exploited as valuable source materialby students of medieval religious
mentalities and religious dissent. Characteristicis his sharp anti-
clericalism and warning of bloody chastisement soon to come.
Characteristictoo is his ambivalencetoward Rome: his dissatisfaction
with present conditions but ultimate faith in the institution of the
papacy and hope for its miraculous purification. Characteristic,
finally, is his hope for the imminent coming of a completely reformed
era, standing at the end of earthly time, when all the enemies of the
faith would be subdued and when Christianity would prevail from
sea to sea.
Such expressions of religious dissent have been neglected by
modern scholarshipin favour of the exhaustive treatment of medieval
heresies, but it would seem time for the balance to be redressed.4
It is true that prophecies like those of Theodorius do not include
criticism of dogma, but much medieval popular heresy was little
concerned with dogma either. Nor can it be objected that
Theodorius's prophecy was the work of an isolated lunatic: the form
he followed of the prophetic vision received in bed had a genealogy
going back at least to the twelfth-century visionary letters of St.
Hildegard of Bingen,5 and his content showed familiarity with
prophetic themes that were widely current in his age. Although we
know little about Theodorius himself, it would surely be inaccurate
to dismiss him as the medieval equivalent of a ridiculous cartoon-page

4 A reflectionof this situation is that an anthology entitled ReligiousDissent

in the Middle Ages, ed. J. B. Russell (New York, Ig7r), concerns itself almost
exclusivelywith heresy. The best recentworkin Englishon medievalprophecy
is by MarjorieReeves, notablyher TheInfluenceof Prophecyin the Later Middle
Ages (Oxford, I969) (hereafterReeves, Influenceof Prophecy),but Reeves does
not primarily concern herself with prophecy as an expression of dissent. A
study which does do this is BernhardTopfer, Das kommende Reich des Friedens
(Berlin, I964) (hereafter Topfer, op. cit.), a superlative work to which I am
greatly endebted. Topfer, however, limits himself to the high middle ages
and excludes unpublished prophetic materials. Excellent work, limited to
late medieval Italy, has been done by Donald Weinstein: see esp. his
SavonarolaandFlorence(Princeton,I970). Otherwisethere is only a scattering
of specializedarticlesand (more rarely)monographs,many of which are flawed
most of which are in Germanor French, and most of which have become dated.
Some of my doubts concerningNorman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium
(London, I957; 3rd edn., New York, I970) are expressedtowardsthe end of this
article. In wondrouscontrastto the paucityof good workon medievalprophecy
stands the monumentaltreatmentof prophecyin Tudor and StuartEnglandin
Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic (New York, I97I edn.),
pp. I28-50, 389-432*
5 See Elildegard's letter, In lecto aegritudinisdiu jacens (ed. J.-P. Migne
Patrologiaecursus completus,serieslatina,cxcvii, cols. 269-7I, no. S2)* Theo-
dorius did not need to know Latin to readit becauseit was availablein German
translation:see, for exainple,EberhartWindeckes Denkwurdigheiten zur Geschichte
des ZeztaltersSzgmunds,ed. Wilhelm Altmann (Berlin, I893), pp. 35I-7, and
6 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER72

prophet of doom: he was widely travelled and well-informed about

disparate political events; he may have been a notary, perhaps in
Italy on papal service; and, whatever his source of income, he had
the wherewithalto send his prophecyfrom Italy to Southern Germany
where it circulated widely.6
In fact, prophecies like that of Theodorius provide insights into
the minds of a much broader stratum than t};at represented by
heretics. Far from being a heretic, Theodorius hated even the
moderate Hussites and his prophecy was addressed to and read by
orthodox Germans of different walks of life. One copy was sent to
and presumably received by Duke Ludwig the Rich of Bavaria-
Landshut, another appears to have been sent to councillors of
Nurnberg, and a third was copied in abbreviated form by a South-
German layman named Jorg Zimmermann early in I466, two years
after the prophecy proved to be false.7 Zimmermann's polished
handwritingshows that he must have had good calligraphicaltraining
but he hardly knemT any Latin.8 Fittingly, then, he belonged to just
that audience educated at most in the vernacularto which Theodorius
appealed when he attackedthe clergy for its esoteric use of "a learned
tongue". Zimmermann was much better educated than another
copyist who used a crude cursive and could barely write Germang-
a sign that Theodorius's prophecy was being made availablenot only
to one of the mightiest princes of the South but also to those who were
only marginally literate. In total there are at least four surviving
fifteenth-century copies of Theodorius's prophecy, all representing

6 MS. N. - admittedly a very corrupt text-has the reading "Maister

Theodorus in Pullen gesessen als ein merker [notary?] der diener des herrn
[pope?]". (The reigning pope in I463 was Pius II, who, having himself
spent long years in Germany, may well have had a German notary in his
service.) Theodorius was sufficiently well-informed about politics to know
that the pope's best ally was the duke of Burgundy,to know about the enmity
betweenAlbert of Austriaand George of Bohemia,and to know that the city of
Breslau was teetering on the brink of an agreement with the Hussite King
George. He was obviously very concerned about the state of the Rhenish
prelaciesand had a sense of the distancebetweenVenice and Treviso.
7 Respectively:MS. P. (whichhas the heading"Gesandtausz Appuliahertzog
ludwigen");MS. N. (insertedinto a contemporaryNurnberg town chronicle);
and MS. M. On a treatise by the theologiarlJ. Hagen about prophecies that
circulatedin FranconiaaroundI460, see JosephKlapper,Der ErfurterI(artauser
3rohannes Hagen, 2 vols. (Leipzig, I960), i) p. 75, ii, p. I30.
8 Furtherinsights concerringZimmermannshould emergefrom the disserta-
tion of Frl. Bohm (see above, note I). In the meantime, see L. Oliger, "Das
sozialpolitischeReformprogrammdes Eichstatter Eremiten Antonius Zipfer
aus dem JahreI462", in Beitragezur GeschichtederRenaissanceundReformation
3tosephSchlechtdargebracht(Munich, I9I7), pp. 263-80, esp. p. 265, and the
descriptionof MS. M. in Gisela Kornrumpfand P.-G. Yolker, Die deutschen
mittelalterlichen
Handschriftender Universitatsbibliothek Munchen(Wiesbaden
I968), pp. 56-60.
9 I refer to MS. N.
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT 7

different families, and thus pointing to a wide contemporarycircula-

tion, perhaps in some cases by the intermediary steps of oral trans-
mission. Doubtless many written copies were circulated on loose
sheets and discarded when no earthquakescame in I464.
It has often been noted that heresy apparently began to wane in
Germany in the fifteenth centllry: as one forlorn heretic himseif said
in I458, "the cause is like a fire going out''.l? This and other evidence
has led B. Moeller to argue in a very influential article that piety in
Germany in the later fifteenth century was marked by extreme
''churchliness''.ll But Theodorius's castigation of the German
prelacy and clergy was circulating just when the heretical fire was
apparently dying down. In sllbsequent years similar prophecies
continued to have a wide circulation, often aided, as they were, by
the utilization of the printing press. Yet Moeller virtually ignores
the prophetic genre in his study of piety.
Qne possible reason for this oversight is that the scholarlyliterature
on medieval prophecy is still remarkably slight. Theodorius's
prophecy, far shorter but just as interesting and symptomatic as the
well-known Book of One HundredChapters,l2remains to this day
unpublished, as do many other intriguing high and late medieval
prophetic texts. Scores more have yet to be studied in detail.
What follows is a sketch of some guidelines and questions that have
emerged from my own work on medieval religious prophecy, written
to help crystallize problems, elicit criticism, and perhaps serve as an
ncentlve to others.
* . .

My working assumption is that much of the conterstof medieval

religious prophecy can be read as the expression of dissatisfaction
with the present and hope for the future. As Dollinger long ago
recognized, "what many desired, without being able to bring about by

10The words of FriedrichReiser, on whom see now D. Kurze, "Markische

Waldenserund Bohmische Bruder. Zur brandenburgischenKetzergescilichte
und ihrer Nachwirkung im I5. und I6. Jahrhundert",in Helmut Beumann
(ed.), Festschriftfur WalterSchlesinger,2 vols. (MitteldeutscheForschungen,
lxxiv [Cologne, I974]), pp. 456-so2, at p. 47I.
11B. Moeller's article has been translated from the German into English
twice: first as "Piety in Germany around I500", in Steven E. Ozment (ed.),
The Reformationin DIedieval Perspective (Chicago, I97I), pp. 50-75, and
secondly as "Religious Life in Germany on the Eve of the Reformation",in
Gerald Strauss (ed.), Pre-ReformationGermany(New York, I972), pp. I3-42.
An excellent appraisal,which wisely points to the chargedcombinationof piety
andanti-clericalismin pre-ReformationGermany,is W. D. J. CargillThompson,
"Seeing the Reformationin MedievalPerspective",yl. Eccles.Hist., xxv (I974),
pp. 297-308.
12 On the text of the anonymous Book of One Hundred CStapters,written
between I498 and ISIo, see below, note 52.
8 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER72
their own efforts,becamedressedin the clothes of prediction''.l3
But medievalprophecieshad to rest on some recognizedsourceof
insight, for credulousas medievalpeople might seem today, they
continuallyshowedgreatresistanceto mereprophetic''conjecture''.l4
No one couldput himselfforwardas a prophetmerelyon the grounds
thathe hadsomeraregift of clairvoyance,or "psifunction",let alone
write clearly fictionalreformistprophecylike Edward Bellamy's
LookingBackward.l5 Insteadthere werefour (not alwaysmutually
exclusive)methodsfor gaininga hearing. I would call them the
visionary, the Biblical, the astrological,and the pseudonymous
propheticways.ls (I exclude from considerationhere translations
from propheciesoriginallywrittenin Greekor Armenian,a subject
for whichI havelittle competencebut whichcertainlymeritsfurther
study.)l7

13 J. J I. Dollinger, "Der Weissagungsglaubeund das Prophetentum"

Historisches Taschenbuch,5th ser., i (I87I), cited by Martin Erbstosser
SozialreligioseStromungenim spatenMittelalter(Berlin, I970), p. 30. Thomas
Op. Cit., p. I38, also concludes that seventeenth-centuryreligious prophets
"found it easierto representtheir demandsas the result of heavenlyvisions than
to risk putting them forwardas their private opinions".
14 A patristic point of departure for this resistance was Augustine's
distinction in his City of God, xviii. 52, between '<propheticinspiration"
and '<conjectureof the human mind". Some examples of the subsequent
resistanceto human conjectureabout the future are: St. Thomas, Commentum
in LibrumI Y Sententiarum(echoing St. Augustine),as cited by Reeves, IngFuence
of Prophecy,p. 69; John of Paris, De adventu Antichristi (also echoing St.
Augustine),as cited by F. Pelster, "Die QuaestioHeinrichsvon Harclayuber die
sweite Ankunft Christi", Archivio italiano per la storia della pietA, i (I95I)
pp. 25-82, at p. 39; and Henry of Langenstein, Contraquendameremitam,as
cited by Reeves, Influenceof Prophecy,p. 426.
16 EdwardBellamy,LookingBackward(Boston, I888; frequentlyrepr.).
16My taxonomy is related to, but somewhat different from, that of R. W.
Southern, who distinguishes between Biblical, pagan, Christian, and cosmic
prophecies:see his "Aspects of the EuropeanTradition of HistoricalWriting:
3. History as Prophecy", Trans. Roy. IIist. Soc., sth ser., xxii (I972), pp.
t5t80, at pp. I62-72, an essay characteristically provocativeand full of insight.
A method that eludes my taxonomyis that of the anonymousearly thirteenth-
century tract, De seminescripturarum,which bases prophecy on the alphabet.
See on it, H. Grundmann, "Uber die Schriften des Alexander von Roes"
DeutschesArchivfiErErforschungdes Mittelalters,viii (I950), pp. I54-237, at
pp. I6I-2, and E. R. Daniel, "RogerBacon and the De seminibus scripturarum",
Mediaeval Studies,xxxiv (I972), pp. 462-7
17 Examples of translationfrom the Greek are the fourteenth-century"pope
prophecies"treatedby H. Grundmann,"Die Papstprophetiendes Mittelalters"
Archiv fur Kulturgeschichte,xix (I929), pp. 77-I59, and by M. E. Reeves,
"Some PopularPropheciesfrom the Fourteenthto the SeventeenthCenturies"
Studies in Church Hist., viii (I97I), pp. I07-34. A translation from the
Armenianis the "vision of Narses", mentionedby G. A. Bezzola,Die Mongolen
in abendlandischer Sicht (1220-I270), (Bern, I974), p. I8I, without knowledgeof
the Latin translationfound in the following MSS.: Vatican Library, Rome
Vat. Iat. 3822, fo. I I2r-I I2V; ibid., Vat. Reg. Iat. I32, fos. 95v-96v* Studien-
bibliothek, Linz, I02, rear fly-leaf and Universitatsbibliothek, Breslau
Rehdiger 280, fos. 6V-8r.
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT 9

The visionary route was the one taken by Theodorius, probably irl
imitation of the visions of Hildegardof Bingen. Ultimately, visionary
prophecy had its origins in the Bible. Just as God grantedknowledge
of future events by means of visions and transports vouchsafed to
Daniel and John of Patmos, so it was thought that he continued to do
so for saints such as Hildegard and Bridget and for specially chosen
monks, hermits, and even laymen. Thus medieval prophecies often
begin with a prologue explaining that the course of the future was
made clear in a vision grantedto the prophet while he or she was lying
in bed (sometimes a sickbed), participating in mass, or reading
psalms.l8 If the setting seemed right and the prophet worthy, the
vision might be widely accepted: Hildegard was regarded as an
object of inspiration in her lifetime and was widely revered as "the
German Sibyl" in the later middle ages.lD To what degree medieval
visionaries actually thought they saw the visions they reported can
seldom be determined. As a secular historian I assume, however,
that whether visions came from dreams, over-wrought emotional
states, or were sometimes purely fictional, they all may be treated as
products of the human mind.
A second route was that taken by penetrating into the meaning of
the Bible itself. This could be done in different ways. One might
comment on books like Daniel or Revelation (or passages there-
from) that seemed clearly prophetic in content; or one might find
prophetic meaning even where it did not seem to lie on the surface,
as did the French exegete who argued that each verse of the Psalter
corresponded to a year since the Incarnation.20 Far more subtle

18 Examples of the vision seen in bed are Theodorius's prophecy and the
letter of Hildegard(see above, note 5). The vision seen duringmass occurs in
the "Tripoli prophecy" discussed below. The vision seen while reading the
Psalter occurs in the "John of Parma" vision, on which see, provisionally
E. Donckel, "Visio seu prophetia fratris Johannis. Eine suditalienische
Prophezeiungaus dem Anfang des I4. Jahrhunderts",RomischeQuartalschrzYt,
xl (I932), pp. 36I-79. This and subsequent illustrative footnotes are not
intended to be exhaustilre.
19A study of Hildegard'sreputationas a prophetessis needed. A selection
of admiring remarks written about her in her own time is in Ernest wT.
McDonnell, The Beguinesand Beghardsin AfedievalCulture(New Brunswick
New Jersey, I954), pp. 28I-2. She is called the German Sibyl by Henry of
Langenstein:see G. Sommerfeldt,"Die Prophetiender hl. Hildegardvon Bingen
in einem Schreiben des Magisters Heinrich von Langenstein (I383), und
Langensteins Trostbrief uber den Tod eines Bruders des NYrormser Bischofs
Eckard von Ders (um I384)", Historisches3fahrbuch,xxx (I909), pp. 43-6I,
297-307, at p. 47 (I do not knowwhetherthis designationoriginatedwith Henry).
20 See Noel Valois, "Conseils et predictionsadresses a CharlesVII en I445
par un certain Jean du Bois", A7znuaire-Bulletin de la Societe de l'Histoirede
France,ilvi (I909), pp. 20I-38, at pp. 208, 226, 23I. The system of prediction
based on the Psalter was alreadyattackedin I4I2 by Vincent Ferrer: see his
letter De temporeAntichristi,in Notes et documentsde llistoire de Saint Vincent
Ferrier,ed. H. Fages (Louvain) I905), p. 2I4.
IO PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER72

and ambitiolls was the complex system of concordances between

the chronology of the old dispensation and the new worked out by
Joachim of Fiore. Though Joachim ranked with Hildegard as one
of the most influential of medieval prophets, he himself insisted that
he was not a prophet at all but only one given the "spirit of
intelligence" to understand thle mystery of Holy Scripture.2l
More controversialas a source of prophetic knowledge than visions
or Biblical esegesis uras astrology, a scionce condemned by the
Fathers and neglected in the early middle ages but revived in the West
in the twelfth century as a result of Arabic influences. Far from
counting as a backwardsuperstition, astrology was cultivated by the
most advanced scientific minds of the high and late middle ages as an
integral part of the new Greco-Islamic astronomy. Indeed, as
R. W. Southern has justly said, astrology "offered the finest field for
human thought that could be found".22 Christiantheologianstended
to resist the new astrologicalmovement, but most did not reject it out
of hand, falling back instead on the compromise of St. Augustine,
who conceded in the City of God,v. I, that "it may be said that the
stars give notice of events and do not bring those events about, so that:
the position of the stars becomes a kind of statement, predicting,
not producing, future happenings".23 Whatever the theologians
concluded, there is no doubt that astrological prediction enjoyed an
enormous medieval vogue: for example, the "Toledo Letter", a
prophecy certainly as popular as the works of Hildegard or Joachim,
was based on astrologicalreckonings.24
My last classification, pseudonymous prophecy, is a cover-all
term for a wide variety of bogus productions. Many would-be
prophets feared that if they spoke or wrote in their own voices no one
would heed them, so they resorted to fraud. The modern student is
therefore overwhelmed by spuria Pseudo-Hildegards, Pseudo-

21On Joachim'sself-estimation,see Reeves, Influenceof Prophecy,pp. I3, I6.

22From R. W. Southern, "Commentary",in A. C. Crombie (ed.), Scientific
Change(New York, I963), p. 302. There is no thorough history of medieval
astrology. For a sampling of medieval attitudes, see Theodore O. Wedel
The MedievalAttitude towardRs Sstrology,Particularlyin England(New Haven,
I920), and Nicholas H. Steneck, "A Late Medieval Arbor Scientiarum",
Speculum,1 (I975), pp. 245-69, at pp. 264-5. An old but still useful surveyof
astrologicalprophecy is F. von Bezold, "AstrologischeGeschichtsconstruction
im Mittelalter", Deutsche Zeitschriftfur Geschichtswissenschaft) viii (I892),
pp. 29-72, repr. in his Aus Mittelalter und Renaissance(Munich, I9I8), pp.
I65-95. Detailed information about particularastrologers can be garnered
from the volumes of Lynrl Thorndike, A History of Magic and Experimental
Science,8 vols. (New York, I923-58).
2 3 I quote from the translationby Henry Bettenson,Concerning the City of God
against the Pagans, ed. David Knowles (Harmondswortll,I972), p. I80.
24 Still best on the Toledo Letter is Hermann Grauert,"Meister Johannvon
Toledo", Sitzungsberichte derkoniglichenbayerischenSkademiederWissenschafte
(Munich) I9OI, Part 2, pp. III-325.
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT II

Joachims, even numerous Pseudo-Toledo Letters. Pagan Mediter-

ranean and Celtic mythology made their contributions in the form of
newly-minted prophecies attributed to various Sibyls and Merlins.25
Sometimes spurious old prophecies were allegedly discovered or dug
up, sometimes spurious new ones were allegedly sent from the
mysterious East, sometisnes prophetic letters allegedly rained down
from heaven.26 Often the same prophecy, occasionally altered in
certain details, was passed off as the work of different prestigious
authors. To take one particularlyprotean pseudonymity, a prophecy
first written arollnd I300 was attributed in several different re-
incarnations to the thirteenth-century Franciscan general John of
Parma, to a Dominican brother John Romanus (John Colonna?), to
a certain "Raymundus" (Raymond Lull?), to St. Hildegard, to the
noted fourteenth-century theologian Henry of Langenstein, and to
the Emperor Sigismund. Little is known about the real author of
this prophecy except for the certainty that he was not any of the
above.27
The proliferationof pseudonymous texts is merely one illustration
of the fact that the genre of medieval prophecy encompassAsan
astounding number and variety of frauds. Does this fact weigh
heavily against my assumption that prophetic texts can be read as
expressions of heartfelt discorltents and hopes? I do not think so.
The case of the "Tripoli prophecy") a very popular medieval text
that contains typical frauds such as a fabricated miracle, prophecy

25 On the Sibyls see, for example, B. McGinn, "Joachi.mand the Sibyl"

Czteaux, xxiv (I973), pp. 97-I38, at pp. I I6-I9. Accordingto some commenta-
tors, there were in fact two Merlins: MerliIlSilvesterand Merlin Ambrose. On
this, see Paul Zumthor, Merlin le prophAte(Univ. of Geneva dissertation-
Lausanne, I943), p. 72, note I; Thomas, ReligionandtheDeclineof Magic,p. 394 -
and verses distinguishingthe two iIl Trinity College, Dublin, MS. SI7, fo. I38
(I owe this referenceto a draft catalogueby Marvin L. Colker).
26 An example of "discovered"prophecy-"Quando ego Thomas"-is
treated by T. A. Sandquist, "The Holy C)ilof St. Thomas of Canterbury"
in T. A. SandquistandM. R. Powicke(eds.), Essaysin MedievalHistoryPresented
to Bertie Wilkinson(Toronto, Ig6g), pp. 330-44. A prophecyaboutAntichrist
allegedly sent from the East by the Grandmasterof Rhodes, is in the Bayerische
Staatsbibliothek,Munich, EinblattdruckV, 57 (there are earlier MS. copies).
On heavenly letters, see Erbstosser, Sozialreligiose Stromungenim spaten
Mittelalter,pp. 39-47, who provides a further bibliography.
27 The Latin original of tbis prophecy is edited by Donckel, op. cit. On
subsequentGermanversions see, provisionally,Carl Koehne, "Die Weissagung
auf das Jahr I40I", DeutscheZeitschriftfur Geschichtswissenschaft, new ser., i
(I897), pp. 35262, and F. Lauchert,"Materialienzur Geschichte der Kaiser-
prophetie im Mittelalter", Historisches3tahrbach,xix (I898), pp. 844-72, at
pp. 852-67. A prophecyattributedto Bede, Becket,and JakobBoehme, among
others, is treated by Thomas, op. cit., pp. 395, 4I4, and Dietrich Kurze,
3rohannes Lichtenberger(Lubeck, I960), p. 80 (both citing furtherliterature, the
largelyEnglish transmissionknown to Thomas is rlearlyexclusive of the largely
continentalone known to KurzeD.
 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER72
I2
ex eventu, plagiarism,and purposefulobfuscationmay be taken
as illustrative.28 here
Around I240, at a time of great eschatological
catalyzedby the dramaticappearance hopes and fears
of the Mongols,a shortprophecy
circulatedin the Westthatpurportedto be the
seen in a visionby a Cistercianmonkduringtext of a divinemessage
there really was a monk who thoughthe saw mass. Whetheror not
a
writingout a prophecyduringmass,we knowfor disembodiedhand
same story circulateda half-centurylater it surethat whenthe
what we today would call a hoax. was the product of
Specifically,aroundI29223an
unknownwriterin WesternEuroperesurrected the oldaccountof the
miraculousmessage,but now, moved by the
Christianoutpostsin the Holy Land,he set the downfallof the last
a Cistercianmonasteryin SyriaIlTripoli purportedmiraclein
and alteredsome of the
contentof the prophecy. He certainlywas a
was ignorant of the circumstancesthat there westernerbecausehe
was no Cistercian
monasteryin Tripoliandthat the nearestsuch
to exist severalyearsbeforethe fabricated monastery had ceased
havetakenplace.30 miracle was supposed to
The samedishonestauthorcalculatinglydated
andincludedin his miraculousmessage his miracleto I287
predictions
fallof Tripoliand Acre, eventswhichin fact of the imminent
happenedin I289 and
I29I. Here he clearlyshapedpropheciesex eventu,3l
designedto
28 I am currently
working on a full-length study of the Tripoli
whichI will treat the various manuscript prophecy in
encesto the text in Topfer, Op. Cit., pp. I45-6,traditions. Provisionally,see refer-
deskonigreichsfferusalem(Innsbruck, I898), and Reinhold Rohricht, Geschichte
p. 998, note 4.
29 The prophecywas
primarilyinspiredby the fall of Acre in I29I. It could
nothave been written much later than I296
ina chronicle terminatedaround that date: because a revisedversion appears
Emonis et Menkonis
Chronica (Monumenta GermaniaeHistorica, Scriptores,xxiii. Werumensium
pp.567-8. A firm terminusante quem Hanover, I874),
John of Paris'sDe Antichristoof thatdate:issee I300 becausethe prophecy
appearsin
vonStrassburg",Archivfur Literatur-und H. Denifle, "Der PlagiatorNicolaus
(I888), pp. 3I2-29, at pp. 325-6. Kirchegeschichte desMittelalters,iv
(It
Johnof Paris. Op. Cit., included the is worth noting that the sober theologian
sayingsof "the saints" and judged that it had spurious Tripoli prophecy among the
part). already been proven true in
30 D. H. Williams,
"Cistercian Settlement in the Lebanon", Czteaux,
(I974), pp. 6I-74, at p. 7I. Williamscorrectlyjudgesthat xxv
the
isno proof for the existence of a Cistercian monastery in TripoliTripoli
prophecy
in
but mistakenly concludes that the words "in claustro I287,
refer to a Franciscanhouse there. grisei ordinis Tripolis"
31 Paul J.
Alexander,"Medieval
Hist.Rev., 1xxiii(I968), pp. 997-IOI8, Apocalypses as Historical Sources", AHler.
at p. IOOO, observestellingly
notdo to interpreteveryapocalypticprophecy that "it will
sometimes a prophet might have been smart enough as a vaticiniumex eventu"because
were taking. But an observer in I287 to see the directionevents
would
extraordinarily prescient to have foreseen the fall ofhave had to have been
Tripoli and Acre in the
very near future, for some contributory
and even Christians on the scene werecircumstances were hardly predictable
hardly preparedfor what
see
Hans EberhardMayer, The Crusades (New York, I972), p. 273. happened:
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT I3

lend credence to other accomp<anyingpredictions which had yet to

transpire. Otherwise he plagiarized some of the language of the
original prophecy of I240, added words that he found in yet another
earlier prophecy,32and wove in predictions of his own. Some of the
words he borrowed referred to events long passed, such as the
onslaught of the Mongols, and by the I290S had no obvious meaning.
This, however, did not bother the prophet who was not averse to
including in his text portentous sounding nonsense. Even some
allusions that he coined himself were probably as obscure to him as
they are to modern readers.
The Tripoli prophet, then, surely resorted to deviousness. He
wrote, not in a trance, but seated at a desk, where he c<arefully
fabricated a prophecy out of borrowed words, deliberate decep-
tions, and a modicum of planned obfuscation. Still, it does not
follow that he was a cynic. We cannot term his verbal borrowings
cynical when we know that no dishonour was attached to plagiarism
in the middle ages. Some of his obscurities may have come less from
hedging than from his sense that prophecies were supposed to be full
of difficult obscure images, for even Biblical prophecies were written
this way.33 As for his grosser dishonesties, they seem most com-
parableto the work of the many medieval pious forgers who knew full
well that they were forging but were convinced that they were doing
so for a higher good. No doubt the prophet felt that if he fabricated
a report of a miraculous vision, used prophetic language that had
already stood the test of time, and added some ex eventu details, his
prophecy would gain wider credence than if he relied on forthright
self-identification and originality.34 And indeed he was right, if we
can judge by the indubitable popularityof his text. Surely, however,
he did not write to gain fame, for he knew that no one would even
learn his name. Rather, he had some burning messages to
communicate. These we can now look at not only as proof of his
earnestness but as illustrations of characteristic high and late
medieval religious-prophetic themes.
To begin with, it seems clear that, whateverhis deceits, the Tripoli
prophet was genuinely moved by the fall of the last outposts in the

3 2 The last words of the Tripoli prophecyappearto have been borrowedfrom

the "Corruentnobiles" prophecy,written shortly after I250. An edition of it

is in Reeves, Influenceof Prophecy,p. 50 (see also p. 525).
3 3 On obscurityas a requiredingredientfor successfulprophecy,see Southern
"Aspects of the European Tradition of Historical Writing: 3. History as
Prophecy, p. I 6 I .
34 A similar treatment of pseudonymity, plagiarism,and fiction in medieval
hagiographyis in Klaus Schreiner, "Zum Wahrheitsverstandnisim Heiligen-
und Reliquienwesendes Mittelalters",Saeculum,xxvii (I966), pp. I3I-69, for
example,p. I54: ". . . none of these sealots consciouslywished to deceive, each
was convinced that he served a good cause and was aiding his religion".
ProfessorR. A. Kieckheferkindly called my attention to this article.
I4 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER72

Holy Land. This can be seen by his dramatic setting of his vision
in doomed Tripoli and his portentous opening words that "the high
cedar of Lebanon" would soon be felled. In fact the debacle of the
late thirteenth century in the East played a role in inspiring not only
him but others to prophesy. The "John of Parma" prophecy was
allegedly the result of a vision seen while the visionary was lamenting
the fall of Acre shortly after I29I and the sanzecalamitywas predicted
ex eventu in at least two other prophecies written shortly after the
events.35 This is characteristic of the circumstance that religious
prophecies very often were prompted by or set againstthe background
of apparent calamities. Otller comparable examples are the fall of
Jerusalemin I I 87, the Mongol threat, the Black Death, the prolonged
Great Schism, and the fall of Constantinople inW I453. To this list
should be added naturaldisastersand prodigies (including occurrences
known to be in the offing, such as astronomical conjunctions).
Events like these-some of which might not seem at all notable today
-prompted reflective minds to ponder over the state of the world
and to become conlrincedthat even more dramatic events were soon
to come.
It is often thought that medieval prophecies can be sorted out into
clearly optimistic and pessimistic species, but that is mistaken. The
Tripoli prophecy, like Theodorius's prophecy treated at the outset
and most others I know of) predicted both dreadful and wonderful
future happenings. After the fall of Tripoli and Acre were to come
days of rage - great battles, massacres, famines, plag}esX and
mutations of kingdoms. The clergy and Christianity in general
would be greatly threatened, the Ship of Peter would be tossed in the
waves but would escape destruction. Not so, however, the mendi-
cant orders, which would be annihilated. But in the end the Holy
See would triumph, the world would be united, and there would be
peace and abundance of fruit for fifteen years. Then there would be
a successful crusade, the Holy Sepulchre would be honoured) axld
during this tranquil time news would be heard of Antichrist.
Practically all of these details are typical. Of greatest interest in
the present context are the prophet's religious predictions. It is
not certain whether he thought the papacy's trials were merited
punishments but there is little doubt that he was pleased about the

35 The "John of Parma" prophecy is ed. Donckel, op. cit. The two other
prophecies are "Ve mundo irl centum annis", on which see Heinrich Finke,
Aus den TagenBonifaz VIII (Munster, I902), p. 2I8, and the "Columbinus"
prophecy, a curtailed version of which is edited by E. Boutaric, "Notices et
extraits de documents inedits relatifs a l'histoire de France sous Philippe le
Bel", Notices et extraitsdes manuscritsde la BibliothequeImpe'riale,rx, 2 (Paris,
I862), pp. 235-7, but see rather the full text in Brit. Lib., MS. Cott.
CleopatraC. x, fos. I57r-rS8r.
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT IS

destruction of the mendicant orders, for 02ebracketed this prophecy

with predictions of other distinctly good ratherthan evil events. No
mention of the annihilation of the mendicant orders can be found in
his exemplar of c. I240: the innovation no doubt reflects the growth
of disenchantment with the mendicants that spread in Europe in the
second half of the thirteenth century.36 The exemplar, however,
itself warned the clergy to beware and predicted woe for the Church
if a flourishing new order should fall. This is just one indication of
the fact that even in the thirteenth century the need for clericalreform
was emerging as an important prophetic theme.
Sometimes, indeed, stress on the need for reform was barely dis-
tinguishable from outright anticlericalism. Already in the twelfth
century St. Hildegard had prophesied the coming persecution and
chastisement of the clergy in tones of great bitterness.37 In the
second half of the thirteenth century, prophecies that circulated in
Italy and Germany foretold that a new "Frederick from the East"
would take the pope prisoner, that a new Frederick would greatly
humble the German clergy and the Roman Church, and that a new
Emperorwould come under whose reign "the vaingloryof the clergy"
would cease.38 The "John of Parma" prophecy, written in Italy
around I300, predicted that the avariciousclergy would lDepunished
by being given wood for its gold and glass for its gems. Coming
persecutions of the clergy would be so great that many priests would
try to hide their tonsures in order to avoid recognition.39 This last
image was so vivid that it reoccurredin numerous other late medieval
prophetic texts. Around I348, for example, a prophecy circulated
in Swabia that the Emperor Frederick II would return and, among
other things, persecute members of the clergy so terribly that they
would try to hide by covering their tonsures with cow dung.40
When scatology mixes with eschatology it suices to break off this
enumeration of anticlerical expressions and move on to tEle more
positive aspecfs of the Tripoli prophecy and medieval prophecy in
general. Just as the Tripoli prophet foresaw a time of Christian
triumph and marvellous peace, so did most other medieval prophets.

36 This has already been noticed by Topfer, op. czt.,p. 146.

37 Ibid.,p. 35, citing passages from the original sources.
38 Respectively: the prophecy "Reg1labitMenfridus", on which see Topfer
Op. Cit., pp. I69-70, and Reeves, Inflenceof Prophecy, pp. 3II-I2 (a hitherto
unknown thirteenth-centurycopy, containing importantvariantreadings, first
called to my attention by Dr. A. Patschovsky,is in Stiftsbibliothek,Admont
[Austria],MS. 326, fo. 230v); a prophecyalludedto by Alexandervon Roes, on
which see Topfer, Op. Cit., pp. I74-5- and the prophecy"Gallorumlevitas", on
which see Topfer, Op. Cit., pp. I 856, and Reeves, InfluenceofProphecy, p.3r2.
39 On this prophecy, see above notes I8 and 27.
40 On this see Topfer, Op. Cit., p. I78. Other examplesof the motif are listed
by Kurze, 3'ohanne.s Liclztenberger, p. 28, note I66.
 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER72
The major disagreementamong them was whether they thought this
time would come before or after the reign of Antichrist. Relying on
the earlier tradition of Pseudo-Methodius and the Tiburtine Sibyl,
one class of prophecies (Theodorius's prophecy and the Tripoli
prophecy among them) foresawa wondrous happy time coming before
the advent of Antichrist. Usually these prophecies foretold that this
triumph would be brought about by one or more great rulers:
Theodorius predicted the triumphant reign of a converted Saracen
king and the Tripoli prophecy foretold the victory of a "beast of the
West" together with a "lion of the East" (probably the rulers of
France and Germany). Prophecies of peace, plenty, and world
unity brought about by mighty rulers gained strength from two
directions: they were cultivated by monarchicalpublicists since they
served as excellent vehicles for the expression of dynastic ambitions
and they were often circulated with enthusiasm by the masses of the
medieval under-privileged who usually had deep faith in the
charisma of real or hoped-for kings 4l
The alternative view that a wondrous age would come after the
death of Antichrist was more frequentlytransmittedby clericalwriters
who predicted that the purging of the world would be brought about
not by heroic secular monarchs but by the forces of Antichrist and
AntichristhimselE. This varietyof prophecyhas often been associated
with the name of Joachim of Fiore but I have shown elsewhere that
it had its roots in an orthodox exegetical tradition which dated back
to the work of St. Jerome.42
The differences between the 'sSibylline" and "Joachite"traditions
are interesting and illuminating, but for present purposes it is enough
to say that they usually concurredin foretellingthat, after an imminent
time of trial and chastisement,a new age of peace would prevailduring
which there would be a better) reformed Church, the enemies of the
faith would be converted, and a purified Christianstywould flourish
everywhere. Prophecies from both traditions usually foretold that
old institutions, such as the papacy, would become thoroughly
reformed rather than completely destroyed (a token of the fact that

41 Profitableinsights into this subjectare providedby T6pfer, op. cit., passim,

and F. Graus, "Die Herrschersagendes Mittelalters als Geschichtsquelle"

ArchivfiArKult?wrgeschichte, li (I969), pp. 65S3. On propheciesas expressions
of incipient nationalism, see D. Kurze "Nationale Regungen in der
spatmittelalterlichenProphetie",HistorischeZeitschrifi,CCii (I966), pp. I-23.
42 The distinction between "SibyllineX'and "Joachite"prophetic systems is
best stated by M. Reeves, "JoachimistInfluenceson the Idea of a Last World
Emperor",Traditio,xvii (I96I), pp. 323-70, at pp. 323-5, and in Reeves,Influence
of Prophecy,pp. 299-303. My argumentthatthe "Joachimist"alternativewasin
fact traditionalis developed in my forthcoming "Refreshmentof the Saints:
The Time after Antichrist as a Station for Earthly Progress in Medieval
Thought", TraditiZxii (I976).
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT I7
humanbeings are usuallydisquietedby the idea of facing a totally
new futureand find comfortinsteadin lookingforwardto at least a
modicum of familiarity). In view of such concord it must be
concludedthat medievalreligiousprophecies whatevercalculating
deceptionstlley may have contained-were most often vehiclesfor
the expressionof heartfeltreligiousdissentand intensehopesfor the
fu1:ure.The Tripoli prophet,MeisterTheodorius,and dozenslike
them did not feel free to expresstheir criticismsand hopes forth-
rightlybut ventedthem withoutinhibitionwhen they employedthe
vehicle of prophecy. Whetherthey fully realizedwhat they were
doing is impossibleto say but in the last analysisis 1lota matterof
centralimportance.

The interpretation of medievalreligiousprophecyas the expression

of intense biases and hopes seems confirmedby the fact that such
prophecy was usually received with awe and enthusiasm. The
attitudesof prophets,in otherwords,wereclearlyin tune with those
of their public. Scepticismaboutreligiousprophecycan sometimes
be found in the middle ages, but such was usually expressedby
schooled theologiansor expressedafter certain predictionswere
unequivocally disprovedby the actualcourseof events. Too delight-
ful not to be quoted is the remarkof a fifteenth-centuryEnglish
chroniclerthat Joachimof Fiore "be gret craft ... drove oute the
zear in whech the day of dome schuld falle. But he failed foule
and erredin his counting".43
Opposedto such casesof scepticismfromhindsightare numerous
instancesof deep credulity,such as the fact that on receivingthe
"Toledo Letter",which foretoldgreat disastersfor the year II86,
ArchbishopBaldwinof Canterburyordereda three-dayfast for his
entire province.44 It tsnightbe thought that when II86 passed
uneverstfully the embarrassment of those like Baldwinwho took the
Toledo Letterseriouslywouldhavebeen greatenoughto put an end
to its subse?uenttransmission. But, quite to the contrary,the life
of the Toledo Letter was just beginning:with changeddates and
greaterorlesseralterations it wasrecirculatedthroughoutEuropeuntil
the end of the middleages and continuedto inspiregreatfearsand
hopesin its readers. Similarly,the Tripoliprophecy,firstpurported
to havebeenthe productof a visionof I287,W3S redatedtOI29I,I297,
I346,I347,I348,I357,I387,I396,I400,I487, andno doubtseveral

43 Reeves, Infl?enceofProphecy,p. 70, citing John Capgrave. Reeves's study

is a treasuretrove of informationabout the receptionof Joachiteprophecy.
44 Grauert,"Meister Johann von Toledo", p. I82.
 PAST AND PRESENT
I8
other NUMBER72
dates. Partsof it werestill
and seventeenthcenturies. being transmittedin the sixteenth
45
Isolatinga medievalprophetic
pull up a stubbornrootin text, then, is often like
trying
have it all removedthan one's garden: no soonerdo you think to
deeplyand widely. The you find that it really ramifiesfar yoll
Tripoli more
isolatedlate thirteenth-century prophecymight first seem like an
ancestorwas writtenhalf a text before one recognizes
that an
allover Europealmostto centuryearlierand descendantsspread
likethe Toledo Letter orthe dawnof the Enlightenment.46Texts
the Tripoli
medieval copies. It is nearlyimpossibleprophecyexist in scores of
wereoftencopiedinto blank to findtElemall because
spacesof they
overlooked or ignoredby modern manusc1ipts and subsequently
ofthe forturlesof the cataloguers. Still, a partialhistory
Toledo
historyof the medievalmind. Letteris a fascinatingchapterin the
fortunesof other Othermorethoroughhistories
of the
elsethey might prophecies should certainlybe attempted:
show, it is clear that they whatever
continued lack of fulfilment would prove that the
theirperennialcirculationof religiousprophecieswas no obstacle
to
wereintenseand unshakeable.becausethey embodied
expectationsthat

That leaves me, in

conclusion,
thatI thinkthe intensivewith suggestionsfor three other
directions
take. First, I agreewithstudyof medievalprophecymight
profitably
ment
of the incidenceof PaulJ. Alexanderthat
of apocalypticprophecycould"servemeasllre-
barometer for the measuringof as a kind
time"47
and I thinkthat the eschatologicalpressuresat a given
propheciesis suiciently greatnumberof survivingcopiesof
to medieval
of incidenceof prophecyin thesupporta semi-quantitative
the study
Most likelythe use of Alexander'shigh and late middleages.
"eschatologicalpressures"atbarometer
high
times
wouldshowusillsually
upheavals
like the fall of the last of unusually dramatic
advent
of the Black Death. outpostsin the Holy Land or the
But I
werealwaysveryhighduringalso think that eschatological
pressures
the highandlntemiddle
the fortunes of the
45 On
Toledo Letter, ages.
partial
account because Grauert see ibid.,
the
studyI am now working relies primarily on which presents only a
prophecy. on, I am documenting published material. In
On the phenomenon the fortunes of the
of redating prophecy,
"Aspects
of the European Tripoli
Tradition of see also Southern
Prophecy",
p. t77, and Morton Historical g riting: 3. History
Century
Apocalypse(New Brunswick, Bloomfield, Piers Plowmanc;ws as
of
Byzantine New Jersey, I96I), p. 93. c2 ozlrteent71-
apocalypses as "living texts" A similarview
Apocalypses
as Historical Sources", is in Alexander,
46Jean
Leclercq, "Textes et p. I004. "Medieval
des
Stats-Unis", manuscrits cisterciens dans des
ing Traditio,xvii bibliotheques
a fourteenth-century(I96I), pp. I63-83, falls into the error
that of assum-
unlque
orlg1naltext. version of the Tripoli
prophecy represents a
4
Alexander,
7
op.cit., p. I002.
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT I9

Excludingsome truly tempestuousyears, the plotting of moving

averageswould, I think, show a remarkablysteady graph of high
pressures. It is true that religiousprophecieswereusuallyinspired
by apparentcalamities,but events that disturbedcontemporaries
occurredat a more or less uninterruptedrate: there was never a
paucityof Christiandefeats,deathsof charismaticrulers,astralcon-
junctions,or eclipses. l&oreover,such eventswereonly catalysts
andnot alwaysnecessaryones-for the expressionof discontentsand
hopes that persistedfrom at least the twelfth century onwards.
The thirteenthcetltury-comparativelyplacidseemingto us had
its full share of dissentingprophecy,and if the amountseems to
increasein the late middleages (an impressionthat is by no means
fully verified)it may be becausemanymore documentsof all kinds
survivefrom the laterperiod.48
In otherwords,I believethatchiliasm- by whichI meanhopefor
supernaturally inspired,imminent,andsweepingthis-worldlychange
wasfar less anomalousin WesternEuropefromthe twelfthto the
sixteenth centuriesthan is often supposed. I think that chiliasm
was not just the ideologyof lllnatic-fringe"fanatics"arlduprooted
classes and its expressionwas probablya chronologicalconstant
ratherthanthe occasionalproductof materiallydislocatingdisasters.
49
To express this bibliographically,I believe that Norman Colln's
pathfindingTke Pursuitof the Millennium(now tenZpas fugit
almost twenty years old) was based on insufficientknowledgeof
1lnpublishedprimarysourcesand that those who follow Cohn - -
suchas, mos, recently,MichaelBarkun- in associatingmillennialism
solelywith backgrounds of disasterhavebeenmisled.50 Suchtreat-
ments miss the contirluityof a millerlnialundertowin NVestern
EuropeanCllristianity.
study
Butsecond,for allthe consistencythat the se*ni-quantitative
48 Hans Martin Schaller, "Endzeit-Erwartung und Antichrist-Vorstellungen
in der Politik des I3. Jahrhunderts",in Festschriftfur HermannHeimpelzum
70 Geburtstag,3 vols. (Gottingen, I97I-2), ii, pp. 924-47, documents well the
pervasivenessof lively eschatologicalhopes and fears in the thirteenthcentury
but seems mistakenin assumingthat the thirteenthcenturywas the last in which
such viesvs played an important role in political and cultural life. I agree
insteadwith Bioomfield,Op. Cit., p. 9I, that "he would indeed be foolhardywho
would attemptto speakof any period as favoringvaticinationover any other".
49 For the interest in chiliastic prophecy displayed by the otherwise sober

fourLeenth-centurymonk-administratorHenry of Kirkestede, subprior of

Bury St. Eidmunds,see RichardH. Rouse, "BostonusBuriensisand the Author
of the CatalogusScriptorumECcclesiae", Speculum,xli (I966), pp. 47I-99, at
pp. 4g2-3. I will be commenting furtheron this and similar examplesin my
study of the Tripoli prophecy.
50 M. Barkun,Disasterand the Millennium (New Haven, I974), iS a provoca-
tive attempt at synthesis which argues, here following Cohn, The Pursuitof the
Millermi7wm, on naedievalWesternEurope, that "millenarianmovementsalmost
always occur in times of upheaval" (p. 45). I think that this statement is
defensibleonly if one considersa "millenarianmovement"to be a highly visible
uprising or incidence of apparentcollective mania.
20 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER 72

of the incidenceof medievalprophecymightshow,furtherintensive

study of certainspecifictexts that containtelling changesof detail
would,I think,revealhow certainthemesemergedand developedin
certain times and places. An examplealreadyalluded to is the
emergenceof hostilitytowardthe mendicantordersfound by com-
paringthe Tripoliprophecyagainstits earlierexemplar. Sometimes
there is such a profusionof manuscriptevidencethat it should be
possibleto displaythe spreadof certainthemes like the marchof
armieson detailedbattlemaps. Sincechangingthemesgrewout of
changingconditions,intensivestudy should help to illuminateour
knowledgeof changingconditionsas well as cllangingideas. A
particularly intriguingquestionis whetherlatemedievallay prophecy
writtenin the Europeanvernaculars- madepossibleby the spread
of lay literacyin the latermiddleages displaysgreaterradicalism
than Latin prophecieswritterlby clerics. The text of Meister
Theodorius'sprophecysuggestsan affirmativeanswer,but a11the
relevant evidence has not yet been gathered,let alone carefully
evaluated.
Finally,even though all the evidenceis not yet in, it can still be
saidthat carefulattentionto propheticevidencewouldprovefruitful
for studentsof pre-Reformation Germanreligiousattitudes.5l To
reiteratetwo pointsthat I madeat the outset: althoughheresymay
have decreased in late medieval GermaIly,dissenting prophecy
certainlydid not; and the incidenceof the latteris a morevaluable
index of popular attitudes than the incidence of the former.
Numerous Latin and vernacularprophecieswhich circulatedin
pre-ReformationGermany, far from reflecting B. Moellers
"churchliness",expressed deep dissatisfactionwith the state
of the Church,warningsof coming chastisementfor the corrupt
clergy,and hopesfor religiousreformin the future. Some of these
texts havenot yet receivedanypublishednoticeand none,acidefrom
The Reformalionof Kaiser Sigismund,lwheBook of One Hndrfed
Chapters,and the predictionsof JollannesLichtenberger,has yet
beenstudiedwithappropriate care.5 2 Here,in conclusion,I canonly
61The onlzrdetailed study I know of along these lines is J. Rohr, ':Die
Prophetie im letzten Jahrhundertvor der Reformation als Geschichtsquelle
und Geschichtsfaktor",Historischesyahrbuch,xix (I898), pp. 29-56, 447-66,
a useful work but one which rests exclusivelyon published evidenceand which
is now out of date.
s2 Recent studies of the ReformatioSigismundithat approachit frorndifferent
points of view are H. Koller, "Revolutiondes I5. Jahrhunderts",MedioWevalia
Bohemica,iii (I970), pp. 229-36 - a convincingrejoindertO Lothar su Dohna,
ReformatioSigismundi(Gottingen, s960)-and 1?.de Vooght, "Les Hussites et
la 'Reformatio Sigismundi'", in Remigius Baumer (ed.), Von Konstazz nzcll
Trient (Festgabefur August Franzen) (Munich, I 972), pp. I 902 I 4. Best on
The Book of One HundredChaptersis the commentaryad edition in Gerhard
Zschabitz and A. Franke (eds.), Das Buch der HundertKapitel und dkerVid}4?g
Statuten des sogenanntenoberrheinischen Revol?ltionar3 (Berlin, I9679. English
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT 2I

mentionsomeof the leastknownandmoredramatiemerelyto givean

impressionof the amountof workthat remainsto be done.
Among pre-ReformatiorlGerman propheeies that predieted
comingpurifieationand bettertimes beforethe reign of Antiehrist
are severalthat foresawbetter times being broughtin by a new
Emperor Frederick. The "Veniet aquila" propheey, whieh
cireulatedin numerousEfteenth-eenturyGermanmanuseriptsin
Latin and Germanversions,reworkeda thirteenth-eentury text in
foretellingthat a heroie"Frederiekfromthe East"wouldsoon eome
to rule the whole world, take the pope prisoner,aIld have eleries
stoned to death.)3 Another Frederiek propheey, written on a
manuscriptfly-leafaround460 andhithertounknown,predietedthat
olle "F" wouldttiumphaftera time of greatdiscord,presideoveran
ageof wolldrouspeacefor thirty-twoyears,and, amongotherthings,
destroyall "vainpriests".54 Similarlya thirdtext, partiallypatehed
togetherfrom severalearlicrones, specifiedthat betweenI447 and
I464 the "vainglory"of the elergywouldeease,papalbullswouldno
longer have force, and that in I464 after varioustrials an
emperorwhose name would begin with "F" would bring great
peaceand abundanceto the earthandreformboththe clergyandthe
knightilood. D)
(1X0te 52 coNt.)
translationsof most of the Reformatioand excerptsfrom the Book are provided
by Gerald Strauss, Manifestationsof Discontentin Germanyon the Eve of the
Refornzation (Bloomington,Indiana,I97I), pp. 3-3I, 233-47. On Lichtenberger,
see Kurze, 3roharnesLichtenberger.
53 Different fifteenth-centuryversions of "Veniet aquila" (a reworkingof
"RegnabitMenfridus", on which see above, note 38) are printed in Wolfgang
Lazius, Fragmer7turn uaticinSi... Methodii (Vienna, I547), Sig. LiiV- Johann
Lorenz Mosheim, Versucheinerunpartheiischews undgrundlichenKetzergeschichte
(Helmstedt, I746), pp. 343-4; F. von Bezold, "Zur deutschen Kaisersage",
Sitzungsberichteder bayerischewl Akademieder Wissenschaften, philosophische-
philologische Classe, xiv (I884), pp. 560-606, at p. 606, and Reeves, Influence
of Prophecy,pp. 333-4. A fifteenth-centuryGerman translationis edited by
Lauchert, ".Materialienzur Geschichte der Kaiserprophetieim Mittelalter"
pp. 850-I. E. Herrmann, "Veniet aqui]a de cuius volatu delebitur leo"
Festiva lanx (Festschrift3'. Sporl) (Munich, I966), pp. 95-II7, iS, despite its
title, only peripherallydevoted to this prophecy and is unreliable-see instead
Topfer, Op. Cit., pp. I72-3, with referencesto the older literature. The original
date of the composition of "Veniet aquila"is still uncertain.
54 Stiftsbibliothek,Admont, MS. 203, fo. Ir: "Veniet F. cum magna dis-
cordia, rixa, et gwerra, et prevalebit et regnabit 32 annis. Optima pax et
optima tempora erunt sub eo. Ille destruet vanos sacerdotes et omnes
perversos ac perversas...." (I obtained a copy of this text through the
facilities of the Hill Monastic A4anuscriptLibrary, Collegeville, Minnesota, to
the staff of which I wish to express my thanks.)
55 Herzog-August-Bibliothek,Wolfenbuttel, MS. 366 Helmstedt, fo. 27r
and BayerischeStaatsbibliothek,Munich, MS. Clm 4I43, fO.42v (both arecopies
from the now mutilated Munich MS. Clm 5I06): "... vana cessabit gloria
cleri quia nulla bulla apostolica amplius valebit.... tandem ... pax erit in
universaterraet habundantiapanis et vini. Et clerus atquemilitia reformabitur
per imperatoremcuius nomen incipitper F". Publishedmentionof this text
without knowledge of the Wolfenbuttel MS. - was made by Bezold, "Zur
deutschenKaisersage",p. 579, but the whole has still not yet been edited.
22 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER 72

Othercontemporary propheciesthatforetoldthe imminentcoming

of a greatchastizingruleromittedmentionof his name. One of the
betterknown,but still insufficientlystudied,is that of the pseudo-
nymousfificenth-century "Gamaleon".This predictedthata German
ruler lh-oulddefeat the French, become Emperor,and reformthe
Churchbyremovingthe papacyfromRometo Mainz,divestingclerics
of all theirpossessions,andkillingpriests. "Gamaleon's" prophecy
circulatedin the fifteenthand sixteenthcenturiesboth in Latin and
in a Germanversionwhichemphasizedthat iIl the comingdispensa-
tion the povertyof the clergywould be so greatthat "it cannotbe
expressed".56A Germanprophecy,attributed(probablysperiously)
to a Franciscan"l3rotherDietrich",printedseveraltimesin the late
fifteenthandearlysixteenthcenturies,similarlyforetoldthat a heroic
rulerwouldunitethe world,destroyall simonyin Rome,andrestore
righteousness.57Anotherfifteenth-century Germanprophecy,up to
now unnoticed,predicteddire events for the year I460) including
"incredible"bloody strugglesbetweenspiritualand secularpowers
andthe strikingdownof the popeby the handof God,butit concluded
by predictingthatin I46I the imperialcitiesandthe "RomanKing')
would put all things arightby destroyingthe greatfat priests,up-
rooting evil, and restoringthe "good old customs",which would
thereafterprevail until the coming of Antichrist.58Yet another
unpublishedand hithertounknowntext, the predictionof a certain
"astronomer"from Basel named Philip, foretold the coming of
numerousterribleupheavalsin I477 includingthe chastisementof
the clergy and the death of the pope, whereaftera great "eagle"

56 Versions of the Latin text are published by Lazius, Op. Cit., Sig. HiiV, and
Bezold, "Zur deutschen Kaisersage",pp. 604-6; one version of the German
text is in A. Reifferscheid,Neun Textezur Geschichteder religiosenAufklarung
in DeutschlandzudArend des 14. und I5. 3tahrhunderts (Greifswald, I905)) pp.
47-50. Critical editions of both the Latin and the German "Gamaleons"
are greatlyto be desired. Recent treatmentswhich cite the earlierliteratureare
Reeves, Influenceof Prophecy,p. 332, and Kurze, "NationaleRegungen in der
spatmittelalterlichenProphetie",p. I I. Herrmann,op. cit., is not recommended.
5 7 Some earlyprintededitionsof "Dietrich's"prophecyarelisted in E. Weller
Repertoriumtypographicum(Nordlingen, I864), pp. I88-9. An edition from
one of the earliest known manuscripts(without the attributionto Dietrich) is
by F. Lauchert, Op. Cit., pp. 867-70. Despite Lauchert'swork, the text has
been ignored by modern scholarship.
58 Herzog-August-Bibliothek,NVolfenbuttel, MS. 366 Helmstedt, fos. 62r-
63r: ".., wirt solicher jamer ersten und an heben in der welt und streit
und plut s-ergiessenzwischen geistlichen und weltlichen und allen fursten das
es umglaublichist.... Der pabst wirt sich setzen wider dan (?) christenhait
. . . und wirt das gemain volk verpannen,dor umb wirt yn got plagen und wirt
ains schemlichen totz sterben.... Als mann wirt zelen M CCCC und lxi
jar so werden dann all Reich stett in aller weIt zu samen schweren und der
Romisch kunig und werdenain grossenhauffenmachen und mit gewaltwerden
sy den grossen pfaffen vertilgen und wirt vil der slagen und ir gewalt wirt in
genomen und furpasz kainer mer gegeben...." Another version of parts of
this prophecy is in MS. M., fos. g8r-Ioor.
 MEDIEVALPROPHECYAND RELIGIOUSDISSENT 23
would unite the world and preside over a great "reformation".69
Such hopes and expectationsdid not diminishin the yearscloser
to the Reformation. In I496 a certainMathisSandauerconfessedto
officialsin Augsburgthat God had revealedto him the comingof a
"reformation"throughoutChristendom,the knowledgeof which
Sandauerwassupposedto communicate to the EmperorMaximilian. 60
Concllrrently,in the same year and city, a cleric namedNVolfgang
Aytingerpublisheda propheticcommentarywhich specifiedthat a
messianicruler, perhapsMaximilianor his son Philip, would soon
conquerthe Hely Land and reformthe Church.6l In this writing
Aytingerexcoriatedthe clergy for abuses such as non-residency,
pluralism,misuseof tithes,andexploitationof the poor,all of which,
he felt sure,madea cleansingof the Churchby a comingsecularhero
urgentand inevitable. Aytinger'sworkwas republishedthreetimes
between I496 and z5X5,therebyenteringthe lists along with early
printedbooksof similarpurportsuch as The Reforwnation of Kaiser
Sigismund.
In additionto the manytexts whichpredictedthe cleansingof the
Churchandthe comingof a wondroustime beforeAntichrist,others
which predictedthe coming of a u7ondroustime of "reformation"
afterthe death of Antichristalso had currencyin pre-Reformation
Germany. A treatise by Henry of Langensteinwhich circulated
widely in fifteenth-centurymanuscriptspredictedthat after Anti-
christ'sdeathJewsand heathenwouldbe convertedandtherewould
be a "reformation" in whichthe Churchwould attainperfectionin
faith, hope, charity,virtue, and sanctity.69 The fifteenth-century
59 Universitatsbibliothek, Basel, MS. D. IV. IO, fos. I64r-I65r: ". . . Als denn
wurd zerstorungdes hochsten stadts, und sunderlichder geystlich stadt wird
grosslich gesmeht.... Darnoch ... so durch flugt der adler die welt, und
zerrisset vil . . . regierendealleding noch sinem gevallen und behelt dz mittel
der Nzeltmit siner macht, und bringwider alle ding mit zierlikeitund reformiert
die in wirde und ere des geystes der vvorheitund gerechtikeit...."
60 Rolf Kiessling, Burgerliche Gesellschaft und Kirche ln Augsburg im
Spatmittelalter(Augsburg, I97I)) p. 3I6.
61 Wolfgang Aytinger, Tractatus de revelationebeati Methodi (Augsburg,
I496). On Aytinger, see further F. Zoepfl, "%rolfgangAytinger ein deut-
scher Zeit- und Gesinnungsgenosse Savonarolas", Zeitschriftfur deutsche
Geistesgeschichte, i (I935)) pp. I77-87.
62 Passagefrom Henry of Langenstein, Tractatuscontraquendam eremitamle
ultimistemporibus, quoted by Reeves, Influenceof Prophecy,p. 427. In addition
to the seven copiesof this tractlisted by Ludwig von Pastor,GeschichtederPapste
seit dem Ausgangdes Mittelalters,gth edn., I6 vols. (Freiburg im Breisgau,
I926), i, p. I62 (all of which appear to be German) and the two listed by
Thorndike, A History of Magic and ExperimentalScience, iii, p. 749 (neither
of which are German),I know of the following six copies (all German): Staats-
bib]iothek,Bamberg,MS. Q. III. I9 (theol. 5I)) fos. I69V-I84V;Stadsbibliotheket,
Goteborg, MS. 3I) fos. 37r sos (provenance: Danzig); Stiftsbibliothek,
Klosterneuburg(Austria),MS. 556, fos. 2g4v 307V;WurttembergischeLandes-
bibliothek, Stuttgart,MS. theol. 2? 87, fos. 6Sr-8IV;Herzog-August-Bibliothek,
Wolfenbuttel, MS. 42.2 Aug. fol., fos. I64V-I86r,and MS. 76.r4 Aug. fol.,
fos. I I 2r- I 43' .
24 PAST AND PRESENT NUMBER72

German Mirabile opusculum detinemundidilated on the sins of the

cIergyand predicted that the time of an "Antichristusmixtus" would
soon come, whereafterthe corrupt Church would be b1^oughtto ruin
and a great pope, dressed in white linen, would reign until the End
together with a purified clergywhich would serve God without holding
benefices.63 To stop with an author whose work was particularly
popular, Johannes Lichtenbergerdrankfrom so many sources that his
Pronosticatio of I488 (often reprinted) mixed predictions of better
times before Antichrist with predictions of better times after; but
throughout Lichtenberger repeated his assurances that there would
be imminent "renovatio", "restauratio", or ''reformGtio) for the
Church.64
Prophecies, of coursendid not create Luther or the doctrine of
solifidianism, but German receptivity for sweeping religious change
may have been heightened by the circulation of numerous texts that
expressed dissatisfaction with the government of t-he Church and
certainty of imminent ecclesiastical renovation. To this degree it
may be that we have here an example of how popular prophecies
helped to bring about some of the very events they predicted. The
nineteenth-century historian von Bezold was exaggerating when he
called TheReformatiorl of KaiserSigismund the "trumpet of the
Peasants' War",65 but maybe numerous chiliastic prophecies were
the ground bass of the Reformation.
Northzvestern
University,
Eznanston Robert
E. Lerer

63 Pseudo-Vincent Ferrer, Mirabile opusculus7z de fine mandi (Nurnberg,

I48I), Sig. bvr-bvir. SigismundBrettle,San VicenteFerrerundseinliterarischer
Nachlass (Vorreformationsgeschichtliche Forschungen,x. Munster, I924), pp.
I57-62, proves that this work was not written by Vincent Perrer: it seems to
have been written in Germanyaroundthe middle of the fifteenth century.
64 A resume of Lichtenberger'swork is in Kurze, ffohamlesLicAtenberger,
pp. I5-38; Kurze lists the numerous editions of the Pronosticatio(Strassburg,
I488) on pp. 8I-7. Pre-Reformationprinted illustrationsof coming chastise-
ment for the Churchare reproducedin A. G. Dickens, Reformationand Society
in Sixteenth-Century Europe(London, I966), pp. IO-II; see also the illustrations
in Adolf Waas, Die BauerniznKampfum GerechtigheitI300 bis I525 (Munich,
[1964])
65 F. von Bezold, "Die 'armenLeute' und die deutscheLiteratur des spateren
Mittelalters",HistorischeZeitschrift,xli (I879), pp. I-37, at p. 26, repr. in his
Aus Mittelalterund Renaissance,pp. 49-8I, at p. 72.