قياس مخاطر الاستثمار

‫‪ ‬‬
‫ﻗﯾﺎس ﻣﺧﺎطر اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳواق اﻟﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ وﺗﺄﺛﯾرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠوك اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺛﻣرﯾن‬

‫"ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣؤﺷرات داو ﺟوﻧز اﻹﺳﻼﻣﯾﺔ )‪"(DJIM‬‬
‫‪nadjabderrahmane@live.fr‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺳﻌﯾدة ‪-‬اﻟﺟزاﺋر‪-‬‬ ‫د‪ .‬ﻧﻌﺟﺔ ﻋﺑد اﻟرﺣﻣﺎن‬
‫‪houmag79@hotmail.com‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺳﻌﯾدة ‪-‬اﻟﺟزاﺋر‪-‬‬ ‫د‪ .‬ﻣﻐﻧﯾﺔ ﻫواري‬
‫‪zoulikhabekhti@gmail.com‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺳﯾدي ﺑﻠﻌﺑﺎس ‪-‬اﻟﺟزاﺋر‪-‬‬ ‫د‪ .‬زوﻟﯾﺧﺔ ﺑﺧﺗﻲ‬
‫‪Received: October 2017‬‬ ‫‪Accepted: November 2017‬‬ ‫‪Published: December 2017‬‬
‫ﻣﻠﺨﺺ‪ :‬ﺪﻑ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀﻫﺎ ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻫﺎ ﻭﺗﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻭﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‪ .‬ﻏﻄﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (CANI‬ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪ (CAN‬ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ‬
‫)ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ‪ – 2005‬ﺩﻳﺴﻤﱪ ‪ .(2015‬ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻭﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻩ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻨﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ )‪2008‬ﻡ(‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻬﻤﺎ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻭﺗﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺩﻻﻟﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﻨﻔﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻭﺻﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ )ﺃ(‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺣﺪﻳﺜﺔ )ﺏ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ )ﺝ( ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﳍﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪Abstract: This study aims to analyse investment risks nature and sources in Islamic Financial‬‬
‫‪Products and its Ethical counterpart arising from its investing, and also to demonstrate the‬‬
‫‪impact of their performance and risks measuring on the investor's behavior. Secondly, The‬‬
‫‪Performance analysis method is used to compare the two selected benchmarks chosen from‬‬
‫‪among the (DJIM) family of the Canadian Stock Market, utilising daily data of the close prices‬‬
‫‪of the Islamic index (CANI) and its Ethical counterpart (CAN) covering the period from‬‬
‫‪(January 2005 to December 2015). The results show that the Islamic index (CANI) outperform‬‬
‫‪and was more volatility sensible than its Ethical counterpart (CAN), particularly during the‬‬
‫‪period of the Sub-prime Crisis in 2008. Finally, the analysis of the correlation rate shows that‬‬
‫‪there was no significant link between the studied indices and US (T-Bill), which denies the‬‬
‫‪existence of the benchmark price risk. The study affords some of recommendations among‬‬
‫‪them: improving the competitiveness in the Islamic Financial Markets (a), by using Modern‬‬
‫‪Information Systems (b) and the independence of Shariah Boards of Islamic Banks (c), to‬‬
‫‪manage and hedge risks.‬‬
‫‪Keywords: Islamic Finance - Ethical Finance - Risk Exposure - DJIM - Financial Markets.‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺗﻨﺎﻣﻲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﲟﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻟﺪﻥ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺻﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺭﻳﺲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﺭﻳﺪ ﻭﻣﺆﺧﺮﺍ ﻃﻮﻛﻴﻮ ﻭﻫﻮﻥ ﻛﻮﻧﻎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎ‪‬ﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳓﻮ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﺣﺪﺛﺖ ﳕﻄﺎ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺍ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﺭﺍ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﰲ ﻋﺎﱂ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
‫ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻣﻲ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺭﺳﺎﺀ ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ )‪ (SR‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ؛ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﳊﺘﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺗﻨﺴﺠﻢ ﻣﻊ ﻓﻠﺴﻔﺔ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻠﱯ ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﻠﻤﲔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺪ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎ ﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﺭﺯﺍ ﰲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲨﺔ ﻋﻦ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺴﻢ ﺑﺎﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (Financial Globalization‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻓﺮﺿﺘﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺗﻘﺘﻀﻲ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‬
‫‪96‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﻧﻌﺟﺔ ﻋﺑد اﻟرﺣﻣﺎن‪ ،‬د‪ .‬ﻣﻐﻧﯾﺔ ﻫواري‪ ،‬د‪.‬زوﻟﯾﺧﺔ ﺑﺧﺗﻰ ‪ -‬ﻗﯾﺎس ﻣﺧﺎطر اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳواق‬
‫اﻟﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ وﺗﺄﺛﯾرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠوك اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺛﻣرﯾن " ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣؤﺷرات داو ﺟوﻧز اﻹﺳﻼﻣﯾﺔ )‪-"(DJIM‬‬
‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻜﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﻃﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑ ﰲ ﳎﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣ ﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﳑﺎ ﻧ‪‬ﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ؛ ﺃﻳﻦ ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﻓﻬﻢ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﺮﺍ ﻣﻠﺤﺎ ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﻀﺎﺋﺢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﻘﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻧﻔﺠﺎﺭ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ )‪ (Subprime Crisis‬ﺳﻨﺔ ‪2008‬ﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﻃﺎﻟﺖ ﺁﺛﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻟﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﺫﺭﺯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ )‪ ،(Lehmann Brothers‬ﻭﺑﻨﻚ ﻣﲑﻳـﻞ ﻟﻴﻨﺶ )‪ (Merrill Lynch‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮﻩ ﺑـﺤﻮﺍﱄ‪ 24 :‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻭ ﻛﺬﺍ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻮﺭﻏﺎﻥ ﺳﺘﺎﻧﻠﻲ )‪ ،(Morgan Stanley‬ﺑـﺨﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪18‬ﻣﻠﻴـﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﱪﻯ ﻛﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺇﻧﺮﻭﻥ )‪ (ENRON‬ﻭﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻭﺭﺩ ﻛﻮﻡ‬
‫)‪(WORLDCOM‬؛ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻴﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﲤﻜﻨﺖ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍ‪‬ﺎ ﰲ ﺃﻭﺝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺑﻌﻜﺲ ﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﺛﺎﺭ ﺟﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﻟﺪﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﺈﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ‪ %15 :‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺌﺔ ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻄﻮﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪ ،1‬ﻭﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﱪ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺰﻱ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ )‪ (KFH Research, 2013‬ﻭﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪‬ﻠﺲ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ) ‪IFSB Stability‬‬
‫‪ ،(Report, 2013‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺗﺸﻐﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ )‪ (75‬ﻋﻀﻮﺍ ﻟﻠﻬﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ )‪ (600‬ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ‬
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‫ﻓﺎﻕ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺃﺻﻮﳍﺎ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺘﺒﺔ‪ (02) :‬ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ‪‬ﺎﻳﺔ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪2014‬ﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺛﺮ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻭﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺿﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻈﻰ ﺑﺎﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻎ‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﻭﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺔﹰ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔﹰ ﻭﻳﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ﻳﻮﻣﺎﹰ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻳﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ‪-‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻜﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ -‬ﻭﲤﺘﺪ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﹰ ﰲ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺃﳓﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭﺍﹰ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﳍﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺭﺻﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺷﺮﻕ ﺁﺳﻴﺎ؛ ﻭﻗﺪ ﺑﻴﻨﺖ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻭﺣﻴﺪ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻏﲑ ﻛﺎﻑ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻗﻠﻢ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻬﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﲟﻨﺎﺥ ﻓﱵ ﻭﻭﺍﻋﺪ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺣﻘﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻛﺂﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻹﳚﺎﺩ ﺣﻠﻮﻝ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻜﺘﱰﻫﺎ ﺗﺮﺍﺛﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻬﻲ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻮﺭ ﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺗﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳍﻮ ﺃﺣﻮﺝ ﳍﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻮ‪‬ﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍ‪‬ﺎ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﻈﻢ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﳍﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﳍﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻮﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﺪﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻮﺀ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳊﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﻜﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺟﺎﺀﺕ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺩ ﻭﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﹰ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺟﻮﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺿﺤﺔ ﻟﺘﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺪ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎ ﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲨﺔ ﻋﻦ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺴﻢ ﺑﺎﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ؛ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻜﻮ‪‬ﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﳑﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻜﺴﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﻈﻢ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﳍﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺭﺻﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﻀﻔﻲ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺻﺒﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻭﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻛﺒﲑﺗﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬
‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﻫﻞ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻧﻜﺸﺎﻓﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ؟‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪ :‬ﺪﻑ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﻨﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺯﻣﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ – ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ( ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻨﻴﺴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻭﺗﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺩﻻﻟﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 3‬ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪ :‬ﻗﺼﺪ ﺍﻹﺣﺎﻃﺔ ﲟﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻗﺴﻤﻨﺎ ﲝﺜﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﳏﻮﺭﻳﻦ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﲔ ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﺳﻨﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ ﳌﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻫﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻋﻬﺎ ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﳍﺎ؛ ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻓﺴﻨﺨﺼﺼﻪ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﻳﺚ ﻋﻦ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺪﻑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺩﺍﺀﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺰﺩﻭﺝ )ﻋﺎﺋﺪ‪-‬ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ )ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ( ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ‪):‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ‪- 2001‬ﺩﻳﺴﻤﱪ‪ (2015‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺇﻏﻼﻗﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -I‬ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ :‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ ﳌﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﳍﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﺣﺪﺙ ﲢﻮﻝ ﺟﺬﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻬﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺪﺭ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻻ ﺍﳊﺼﺮ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﺍﻵﰐ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻟﻜﺴﻴﺲ ﻏﻮﻳﻮﺕ )‪ ،(Alexis GUYOT, 2009‬ﻋﻨﻮﺍ‪‬ﺎ‪ ":‬ﻫﻞ ﺗﺴﻬﻢ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﻊ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ؟ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ "‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺻﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻧﺴﻴﺔ ﲢﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‪Les ) :‬‬
‫‪Préceptes de la Shari'ah contribuent-ils à l'efficience et à la performance des marchés‬‬
‫‪ ،3(d’actions ? Une étude comparative des indices Dow Jones Islamic‬ﺃﻳﻦ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ )‪ (DJIM‬ﻭﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ‪) :‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪-1999‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻤﱪ‪2007‬ﻡ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﻄﻌﻴﺔ )‪(Panel Tests‬؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺗﺮﻓﻊ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻔﺮﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﲞﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﳑﻴﺰﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ )ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ –‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ(؛ ﻛﻤﺎ ﱂ ﻳﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻱ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﺍﻧﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪.(T-Bill‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻛﻮﺛﺮ ﺟﻮﺍﺑﺮ ﻭ ﺑﻦ ﺻﺎﱀ )‪ (Kaouthar Jouaber, M. Ben Salah ; 2009‬ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻧﺔ ﺑـ‪ " :‬ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻛﺎﺭﺛﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ"‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺻﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻹﳒﻠﻴﺰﻳﺔ ﲢﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ ،4(The Performance of Islamic Market Indexes in Catastrophic Market Events‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﻨﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪،(2009 -1996) :‬‬
‫‪98‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺷﺎﺭﺏ )‪ ،(Shape‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺑﻠﻎ )‪ (0,53‬ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﻩ )‪ (0,38‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 3‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺒﲑ ﺣﺴﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺇﻳﺮﻳﻚ ﺟﲑﺍﺭﺩ )‪ ،(Kabir Hassan & Eric Girard, 2010‬ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻧﺔ ﺑـ‪":‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻹﳝﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ"‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺻﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻣﻘﺎﻝ ﻧﺸﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻹﳒﻠﻴﺰﻳﺔ ﲢﺖ‬
‫ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‪ ،5(Faith-Based Ethical Investing: The Case of Dow Jones Islamic Indexes) :‬ﺃﻳﻦ ﻗﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﺎﻥ ﺑﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺳﺒﻌﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ )‪ (DJIM‬ﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ )‪،(MSCI‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﺎﺭﺏ )‪ ،(Sharpe‬ﺗﺮﻳﻨﻮﺭ )‪ ،(Treynor‬ﺟﻨﺴﻦ )‪ (Jenson‬ﻭ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﻮﺟﲔ ﻓﺎﻣﺎ )‪ ، (Fama‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﲑ ﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻟـ‪ :‬ﻛﺎﺭﻫﺎﺭﺕ )‪(Carhart, 1997‬؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺧﻠﺼﺖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻓﺎﻕ ﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪2000 -1996) :‬ﻡ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺃﺩﺍﺀﻫﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪2005 -2001) :‬ﻡ(؛ ﻭﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﻋﻼﻭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﺗﻨﻮﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻟﺪﻯ ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 4‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺭﻳﺴﻜﻮ ﻭﺣﻴﺪ )‪ (Risqo Muslimin Wahid, 2014‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ‪ ":‬ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ )‪ (BRIC‬ﻭ)‪ ،"(G3‬ﻭﺃﺻﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻣﻘﺎﻝ ﻧﺸﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻹﳒﻠﻴﺰﻳﺔ ﲢﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ ،6(Between BRIC and G3: Shariah-Compliant Stock Markets Cointegration‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻫﺪﻓﺖ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪):‬ﻧﻮﻓﻤﱪ ‪ -2007‬ﺃﻭﺕ ‪2013‬ﻡ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺪ ﰲ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺩﳎﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﰐ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﺄﺧﺮ)‪(ARDL‬؛ ﻭﻗﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﱪﻳﻚ )‪ (BRIC‬ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻧﻈﲑﺍ‪‬ﺎ‬
‫ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ )‪ ،(G3‬ﺇﺫ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺫﻭﻭ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﻣﺪﻳﺮﻱ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ )‪ (G3‬ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺑﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ ﰲ ﳏﺎﻓﻈﻬﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﱪﻳﻚ )‪.(BRIC‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﺎﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘ ﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﲔ؛ ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﻛﻞ ﻋﻠﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻟﻪ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻴﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﻔﺮﺩ‬
‫‪‬ﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺯﻭﺍﻳﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻴﺄﰐ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ)‪ :(Risk Exposure‬ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﺇﱃ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺣﺪ‪‬ﺎ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻐﻄﻲ ﺍﳋﻄﺮ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ‪ ،‬ﲟﺎ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺑﻴﺸﻮﺏ )‪ - (M.Bishop, 2004‬ﻏﲑ ﻣﺴﺘﻌﺪ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤ ﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻼﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻜﺒﺪ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺭﺓ ؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺮﻯ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻮﺩﻱ ﻭ ﻣﺮﺗﻮﻥ ) ‪Zvi Bodi, Robert‬‬
‫‪ (Merton; 2011‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺃﺻﻨﺎﻓﻬﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺮﻓﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳛﻘﻖ ﻓﺮﺹ‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ‪ :‬ﻳﺮﻯ ﻓﻮﻍ ﻫﺎﻥ ﻭﺁﺧﺮﻭﻥ )‪ (Vaughan. E et al; 1999‬ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻫﻲ‪ ":‬ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺄﻣﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،9‬ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ‪‬ﺎ‪10‬؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﺿﻔﻰ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﻮﺍﺭﻱ ﺳﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻃﻨﻴﺐ ﻋﺒﻴﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﻔﻴﻖ ﺻﺒﻐﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ‬
‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺨﻄﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺣﺪﻭﺛﻪ‪ ،11‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺗﻜﺒﺪ ﺃﺫﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻠﻒ ﺃﻭ ﺿﺮﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺒﻤﺎ ﻳﺮﺍﻩ ﻃﺎﺭﻕ ﲪﺎﺩ )‪.(2003‬‬
‫‪ - 3‬ﺃﺻﻨﺎﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ )‪ :(Types of Investments Risk‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺚ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺴﺠﻢ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻊ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﻔﻈﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺪ ﺃﺻﻮﻟﻪ ﻣﻦ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺗﺴﻌﲑ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (CAPM‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺃﻻ ﻭﻫﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ )‪،(Systematic Risk‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ )‪ ،(Unsystematic Risk‬ﻭﳎﻤﻮﻋﻬﻤﺎ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ )‪ ،(Total Risk‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻋﱪ ﺑﻴﻨﺘﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻛﺐ)‪ (Benton. E. Gup; 1983‬ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ)‪ ،(01‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺷﻛل ﺭﻗﻡ‪ :01‬ﯾﻣﺛل ﺃﺻﻧﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭﯾﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﯾﺔ ) ‪( Total Risk‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮة اﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﯿﺔ )‪(Systematic Risk‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻼ ﻧﻅﺎﻣﯾﺔ )‪(Unsystematic Risk‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﺗﻧﺷﺄ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻣل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺗﺭﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺗﻧﺷﺄ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻣل ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻧﻔﺭﺩ ﺑﻬﺎ ﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ ﻣﻌﯾﻧﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺗﺻﺎﺩ ﻛﻛل‪.‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﺗﺅﺛﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ ﺫﺍﺗﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﺗﺅﺛﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻣﯾﻊ ﻣﺅﺳﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻣﺎل‪.‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﯾﻣﻛﻥ ﺗﻔﺎﺩﯾﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻧﻭﯾﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﻻ ﯾﻣﻛﻥ ﺗﻔﺎﺩﯾﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻟﻛﻥ ﯾﻣﻛﻥ ﺗﻌﺩﯾﻠﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﺟﺯﺀ ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﺷﻐﯾﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻵﺧﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﺟﺯﺀ ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﺷﻐﯾﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻵﺧﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .5‬ﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻣﻌﺎﻣل ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﯾﻥ)‪.(CV‬‬
‫‪ .5‬ﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺑﻣﻌﺎﻣل ﺑﯾﺗﺎ )‪.(B‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺇﺛﺮﺍﺀ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻁ‪ ،2010 ،1‬ﺹ‪.37:‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺄﰐ‪:‬‬
‫‪ - 1- 3‬ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ) ‪ :( Systematic Investments Risk‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲨﺔ‬
‫‪13‬‬
‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻄﺮﺃ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻛﻜﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ ) ‪Non Diversifiable‬‬
‫‪ 14(Risk‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻀﻢ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ )‪ (Credit Risk‬ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﻓﺎﺀ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ؛ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ )‪ (Liquidity Risk‬ﻭﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎ‪‬ﺎ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﻋﻴﺪﻫﺎ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪15‬؛ ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﻜﻮﺍﺭﺙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺰﻻﺯﻝ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﺎﺻﲑ ﻭﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 2- 3‬ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ )‪ :(Unsystematic Investments Risk‬ﻫﻲ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻳﺘﻔﺮﺩ ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻑ ﺩﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻏﲑﻩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ ﰲ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻩ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻪ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﳏﻔﻈﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺍﶈﻔﻈﺔ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪17‬؛ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻄﺮﺃ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫ﻛﻜﻞ‪ ،18‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ )‪ (Diversifiable Risk‬ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻔﺎﺩﻳﻬﺎ )‪ ،(Avoidable Risk‬ﺃﻭ ﲣﻔﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ‬
‫‪19‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﻤﺪ ﺃﺻﻮﻟﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﻔﻈﺔ ﻟـ‪ :‬ﻣﺎﺭﻛﻮﻳﺘﺰ)‪ (Markowitz‬؛ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻀﻢ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ) ‪Operational‬‬
‫‪ (Risk‬ﻭﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺸﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﺱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺰﻭﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﺗﺰﻳﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻄﻮ‪ ،‬ﺍﳉﺮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪20‬؛ ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ )‪ (Business Risk‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ ﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ)‪ ،(Prices Risk‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ )‪، (Commodity Risk‬‬
‫‪21‬‬
‫ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ )‪.(Equity Risk‬‬
‫‪ - 3- 3‬ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ )‪ :(Total Investments Risk‬ﺗﺸﲑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﰲ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﲨﻊ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،22‬ﻭ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪Total Invest. Risk = Systematic Invest. Risk + Unsystematic Invest. Risk‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﺁﻧﻔﺎ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻨﺤﺪﺭ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺗﻨﻮﻋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻼﺷﻲ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ ﰲ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻔﻈﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺘﺒﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺗﺘﻼﺷﻰ ‪‬ﺎﺋﻴﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺪ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺫﺍﻙ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ‬
‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ؛ ﻓﺎﻟﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﻟﻸﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳚﻨﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﳐﻄﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻘﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ؛ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ)‪(02‬‬
‫ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺷﻛل رﻗم‪ :02‬ﯾﻣﺛل اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯾن أﺻﻧﺎف اﻟﻣﺧﺎطر اﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧﺎطرة‬
‫) ‪(σ‬‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧﺎطر اﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻛﻠﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧﺎطرة اﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻼ اﻟﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧﺎطرة اﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻧظﺎﻣﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻷﺻول اﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‬
‫‪Source: Erik Banks (2005), Financial Lexicon, 1st Edition, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, USA, p: 111.‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺑﻌﺎ‪ :‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﲢﻮﻃﻲ ﺿﺪ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ " ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ " ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺃﻋﻄﻴﺖ ﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻓﻨﲑﰐ)‪ " :(Finnerty‬ﺗﻌﲎ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﺤﺪﺛﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺣﻠﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻗﺔ ﻭﻣﺒﺪﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،23‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺍ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫‪24‬‬
‫ﺧﻠﻖ ﻭﺍﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﳉﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻬﻨﺪﺳﲔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﲔ‪ ": (IAFE)25:‬ﺗ‪‬ﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﺒﺘﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻹﳚﺎﺩ ﺣﻠﻮﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞﹺ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ‬ﺍﳌﻌﻘﹼﺪﺓ‪ ‬ﻭﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹﹺ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﹶﻴﺴﺖ‪ ‬ﺃﺩﺍﺓﹰ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﺔﹸ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫‪101‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﺗ‪‬ﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞﹸ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ "‪ ،26‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﳏﺴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺒﺘﻜﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫‪27‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ )‪ ":(Islamic Financial Engineering‬ﻫﻲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺣﻠﻮﻝ ﺇﺑﺪﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﳌﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﻛﻞ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻉ ﺍﳊﻨﻴﻒ "‪ 28.‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﹰﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﺪ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻘﺘﻪ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 4‬ﻋﻘﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ‬
‫ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﳉﻮﻫﺮ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﳋﻠﻖ ﻗﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ؛ ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻧﻠﻤﺢ ﻣﻜﻤﻦ ﺍﳋﻼﻑ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ‬
‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪2008‬ﻡ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ‪ -‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺳﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺑﺎﻧﺪﻓﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﳓﻮ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻬﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ‬
‫ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻛﺜﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫‪2008‬ﻡ ﺇﻻ ﺧﲑ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﳒﺪ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺿﺪ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺘﻤﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺗﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻭﺃﺣﻜﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻟﻘﺪ ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﲔ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺴﻤﲔ‬
‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﲔ‪:‬‬
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‫‪ -1-5‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺿﺪ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﻤﺎﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻪ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ‪ :‬ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﺇﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﺟﻼ )ﺣﺎﻻ‪ ،(‬ﻭﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻧﻘﺪﺍ ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻠﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﳜﺰ‪‬ﺎ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻄﺮ ﻧﻔﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻢ‪ :‬ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﺇﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺜﻤﻦ ﺣﺎﻝﱟ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻗﺪ ﲢﻮﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺑﺘﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﻤﻦ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2-5‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺿﺪ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﲤﻜﻦ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻮ‪‬ﺎ ﺗﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺗﺄﻛﺪ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻜﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺑﺮﺯ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺿﺪ‬
‫ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺻﻜﻮﻙ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ )‪ (Sukuk‬ﻭﻫﻲ‪" :‬ﻭﺛﺎﺋﻖ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺼﺼﺎﹰ‬
‫ﺷﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻴﺎﻥ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺃﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺧﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻌﺪ ﲢﺼﻴﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻜﻮﻙ ﻭﻗﻔﻞ ﺑﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﻛﺘﺘﺎﺏ ﻭﺑﺪﺀ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻢ ﺃﺻﺪﺭﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻠﻪ"‪ ،30‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻜﻮ‪‬ﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻃﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﺘﻨﺎﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪2008‬ﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺭﻳﻖ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ) ﺍﻟﺴ‪‬ﻠﹶﻢ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻱ(‪ :‬ﻭﺻﻮﺭﺗﻪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺣﻜﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻦ ﺣﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺩﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺴ‪‬ﻠﹶﻢ ﺑﺒﻴﻊ ﺳ‪‬ﻠﹶﻢﹴ ﻣﻮﺍﺯﹴ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻟﻪ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺭﻫﻨﺎ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻢ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻟﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺭﻫﻨﺎ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻳﺼﺒﺤﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺭﺑﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﳍﻤﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻗﺪ ﻭﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭ ﲢﻮﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻘﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪102‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫‪ -II‬ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ‪:‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺭﺻﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﺀ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ ﺍﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩﺍ ﳌﺎ ﺳﺒﻘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫‪‬ﺪﻑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺩﺍﺀﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺰﺩﻭﺝ )ﻋﺎﺋﺪ‪-‬ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ )ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ( ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻗﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﻃﺮﻕ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ )‪ :(Dow Jones Indexes‬ﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﺮﺓ ﰲ ‪‬ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ ﻋﺸﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻳﺪ ﺗﺸﺎﺭﻟﺰ ﺩﺍﻭ )‪ 31 (Dow‬ﻭﺷﺮﻳﻜﻪ )‪ (Jones‬ﰲ‬
‫ﺑﻮﺭﺻﺔ ﻧﻴﻮﻳﻮﺭﻙ ﻟﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺈﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺃﻭﻝ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻟﺪﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1896‬ﻡ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺭﺻﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺪﻳﺮﻱ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﲤﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺃﻭﻻ‬
‫ﺑﺄﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻻ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻭﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬
‫ﻗﺪ ﲢﻮﻟﺖ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺟﺘﺬﺍﺏ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﻗﺪ ﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ‬
‫ﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻱ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻧﺒﺬﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ )‪ :(DJIA : The Dow Jones Industrial Average‬ﻳﻌﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﺃﻗﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﻛﺜﺮﻫﺎ ﺷﻴﻮﻋﺎ ﰲ ﺑﻮﺭﺻﺔ ﻧﻴﻮﻳﻮﺭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻧﺸﺮ ﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺻﻔﻴﺤﺔ ﻭﻭﻝ ﺳﺘﺮﻳﺖ ﰲ ‪ 3‬ﺟﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫‪1884‬ﻡ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ )‪ (09‬ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﻟﺘﺴﻊ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻊ ﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ )‪ (13‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﰲ‬
‫‪ 26‬ﻣﺎﻱ ‪1898‬ﻡ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺇﱃ )‪ (20‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1916‬ﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1928‬ﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻊ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﻴﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ )‪ (30‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﻣﻨﺬ ﺫﻟﻚ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﱂ ﻳﻀﻒ ﺃﻱ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻹﻗﻔﺎﻝ ﻟﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺘﻤﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺗﺘﻐﲑ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‬
‫)‪ (30‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ )ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﺳﻬﻢ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ(‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﺴﻢ ﺑﺎﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻀﺨﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﺨﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ‪،‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻛﺎﻥ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻏﲑ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﺃﻣﺮﺍ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻝ‪،‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﳛﺪﺙ ﺍﻻﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‪33‬؛ ﻭﻟﻠﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﻠﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﻢ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ )‪ = (DJIA‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﻬﻢ ‪ /‬ﺭﻗﻢ )‪(Divisor‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ‪ -‬ﰎ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺕ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻱ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺗﺼﻒ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﲤﺜﻠﻪ ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ )‪ ،(Benchmark‬ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻱ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﻛﻜﻞ ﺃﻭ ﳉﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻆ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﻄﺔ )‪ (Passive Portfolio’s‬ﺃﻭ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ )‪ (Index fund‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﲢﻘﻖ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ‪‬ﺪﻑ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﺣﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻭﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ )‪ (Systematic Risks‬ﰲ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪103‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ :(DJIM‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻳﻌﺪ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺻﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻄﺖ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎﺋﻬﺎ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺣﻜﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ)‪ ،(DJIM‬ﻟﻠﺮﺍﻏﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﻮﺟﻴﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻣﺒﻜﺮﺍ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ ﻫﺎﻡ؛ ﻓﻘﺪ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﳉﻮﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻳﺪﻳﺮﻭﻧﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ‪ (DOWJONES) ،(S&P500) ،(FTSE) :‬ﻭ)‪(WORLD INDEX‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ‪‬ﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﺎﺷﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‪35‬؛ ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﳜﺪﻡ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﺟﺬﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺇﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﺭﺝ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 3‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﺭﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺑﻈﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺜ ﻠﺖ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺎﳘﺖ ﰲ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﻠﻤﲔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﻢ‪ ،‬ﳑﻦ ﻳﺆﻣﻨﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ :‬ﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭ)‪Socially :(SRI‬‬
‫)‪ ،(Responsible Investing‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﲡﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲡﻨﺒﺖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺄﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳋﻄﻴﺌﺔ )‪،(Sin Stocks‬‬
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‫ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺘﻘﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ‪ :‬ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺑﻂ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﳍﻢ ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻛﻠﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﻄﺔ‬
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‫ﻷﻣﻮﺍﳍﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮ ﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﻠﻤﲔ ﻭﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺇﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺃﻣﺮﺍ ﻣﻠﺤﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺎﳘﺖ ﰲ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﻠﻤﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻭﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻬﺘﻤﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﻏﲑ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﺳﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﻓﻬﻢ ﻭﺩﻋﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 4‬ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮﺗﲔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﰲ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪ :‬ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺮﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺐ‬
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‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﻤﻮﺡ ‪‬ﺎ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻳﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻧﺴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﻭﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳌﺪﺓ )‪ 24‬ﺷﻬﺮﺍ(‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
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‫‪ ‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳌﺪﺓ )‪ 24‬ﺷﻬﺮﺍ(‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ‬
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‫‪ ‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﺒﺾ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ )ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ( ﳌﺪﺓ )‪ 24‬ﺷﻬﺮﺍ(‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
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‫‪104‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﻭﰲ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺃﻭﺕ ‪2000‬ﻡ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﻠﻨﺖ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﲑﻳﻦ ﻫﺎﻣﲔ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
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‫‪‬ﻤﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻳﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺛﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ )‪ (08‬ﻣﻦ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺳﺒﺘﻤﱪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻭﴰﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﻧﻘﻄﺘﲔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺘﲔ ﻭﳘﺎ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ :‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ )ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺮ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ( ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﻓﺮﻭﻋﻪ ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮ‪.‬ﻡ‪.‬ﺃ‪ ،‬ﻛﻨﺪﺍ‪،‬‬
‫ﺃﺳﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺳﻴﻔﻴﻚ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻷﻱ ﺳﻬﻢ ‪ %10‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﺔ )ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﻴﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﺳﻴﻔﻴﻚ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ( ﻭﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﳊﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺯﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻸﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﺒﻌﺪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻸﺳﻬﻢ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻭﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %5‬ﳑﺎ ﳝﺘﻠﻜﻮﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﳍﺎ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﳊﺮ ﻋﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ‪‬ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻛﻠﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﳍﺎ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻧﺎ ﺃﻛﱪ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﳑﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻌﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﻏﻄﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ )‪ (2005/01/01‬ﺇﱃ )‪ ،(2015/12/31‬ﻭﻗﺪ‬
‫ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺬﺍﺕ ﻟﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺿﺮﺑﺖ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪2008‬ﻡ ﰲ ﻭﻭﻝ ﺳﺘﺮﻳﺖ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮ‪.‬ﻡ‪.‬ﺃ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﻇﻞ‬
‫ﺻﻌﻮﺩ ﻭﻫﺒﻮﻁ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﰎ ﲤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ )‪ (11‬ﺳﻨﺔ ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (CANI‬ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ)‪ (CAN‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﳍﻴﺌﺔ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‬
‫) ‪ (W1DOW : Dow Jones Global Index‬ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺮﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﻭﻝ ﺳﺘﺮﻳﺖ )‪(Journal of Wall Street‬‬
‫ﻟﻸﺧﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻗﺪ ﴰﻠﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ )‪ (2793‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺑﲔ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻧﻘﻮﻡ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ‬
‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ )‪ (Standard Deviation‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫)‪ (Variance‬ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ )‪ (Beta Coefficient‬ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﺒﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ )‪ (Eviews.8‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ )‪(Excel.2013‬؛ ﻭﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ‬
‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺇﻧﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﻭﺗﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺈﺳﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﻳﻐﻄﻴﻬﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﻤﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃ ‪ -‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﻟﺪﻯ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ) ‪ :(CAN‬ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪ (CAN‬ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ )‪،(USD‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﻀﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﻄﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻟﲔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (01‬ﻭ )‪ (02‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪:‬‬
‫‪105‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ :(01‬ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻐﻄﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪.(CAN‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ )‪(%‬‬ ‫‪Sectors‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫‪23.06 %‬‬ ‫‪Energy‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬
‫‪24.88 %‬‬ ‫‪Mining‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﻼﺹ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻥ‬
‫‪09.01 %‬‬ ‫‪Utilities‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﺀ‬
‫‪10.01 %‬‬ ‫‪Financial‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪14.35 %‬‬ ‫‪Telecommunication‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫‪18.03 %‬‬ ‫‪Materials‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﺤﺔ‬
‫‪21.05 %‬‬ ‫‪Industrials‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫‪5.12 %‬‬ ‫‪Healthcare‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫‪7.20 %‬‬ ‫‪Technology‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‪:‬‬
‫‪S&P Dow Jones Indices (2016): Dow Jones Islamic Market Canada Index; fact sheet, April. Available at.‬‬
‫‪https://www.djindexes.com. Consulted: (28/01/2017).‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ :(02‬ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪(CAN‬‬
‫اﻟﺮﻣﺰ‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫)‪(CES‬‬ ‫‪Canadian Energy Service‬‬
‫)‪(C.C‬‬ ‫‪Cogeco Communications‬‬
‫)‪(CH‬‬ ‫‪Concordia Healthcare‬‬
‫)‪(PS‬‬ ‫‪Performance Sports‬‬
‫)‪(VRX‬‬ ‫‪Valeant Pharmaceuticals‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺏ ‪ -‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﻟﺪﻯ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ) ‪ :(CANI‬ﻳﻌﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﻫﻢ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺃﻭﻝ ﺍﻧﻄﻼﻕ ﻟﻪ ﰲ ‪ 24‬ﻣﺎﻱ ‪1999‬ﻡ ﰲ ﻛﻨﺪﺍ ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻗﺪﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،576.50 :‬ﻭﻳﻀﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺇﺛﲎ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ )‪ (12‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍ ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ )‪ ،(USD‬ﻭﻳﺘﺒﻊ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪ (CANI‬ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ‬
‫ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (The DJIM Family‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻛﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺴﺘﺒﻌﺪ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻏﺎﻳﺘﻬﺎ ﳏﺮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﺧﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺓ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﲔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﻎ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺠﺎﺋﺮ ﻭﺗﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺤﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻼﻫﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺎﺯﻳﻨﻮﻫﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺑﺎﳋﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﳋﱰﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻓﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪40‬؛ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﻐﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫‪106‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﻄﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻟﲔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (03‬ﻭ )‪ (04‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ :(03‬ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻐﻄﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪(CANI‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ )‪(%‬‬ ‫‪Sectors‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫‪%30.03‬‬ ‫‪Oil & Gas‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‬
‫‪%23.63‬‬ ‫‪Basic Materials‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ‬
‫‪%21.51‬‬ ‫‪Industrials‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫‪%7.79‬‬ ‫‪Consumer goods‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬
‫‪%7.60‬‬ ‫‪Technology‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
‫‪%6.36‬‬ ‫‪Consumer services‬‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬
‫‪%2.64‬‬ ‫‪Utilities‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﺀ‬
‫‪%0.29‬‬ ‫‪Healthcare‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫‪%0.16‬‬ ‫‪Financial‬‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ :(04‬ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪(CANI‬‬
‫‪Companies‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‬
‫‪Islamic Banks‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Takaful Insurance Companies‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺗﺄﻣﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻓﻞ‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ ﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺔ ﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﱵ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (LCANI‬ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪ ،(LCAN‬ﻭ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (05‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ :(05‬ﺇﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻭﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪ (LCAN‬ﻭ )‪(LCANI‬‬
‫‪LCANI‬‬ ‫‪LCAN‬‬
‫‪7.589085‬‬ ‫‪6.074305‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ )‪(Mean‬‬
‫‪7.595970‬‬ ‫‪6.134677‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ )‪(Median‬‬
‫‪8.040179‬‬ ‫‪6.404120‬‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ )‪(Maximum‬‬
‫‪6.897735‬‬ ‫‪5.413118‬‬ ‫ﺃﺩﱏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ )‪(Minimum‬‬
‫‪0.212268‬‬ ‫‪0.196035‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ )‪(Std. Dev.‬‬
‫‪-0.510426‬‬ ‫‪-1.038615‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ )‪(Skewness‬‬
‫‪3.107274‬‬ ‫‪3.425636‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻠﻄﺢ )‪(Kurtosis‬‬
‫‪107‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫‪122.0033‬‬ ‫‪520.6047‬‬ ‫ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ )‪(Jarque-Bera‬‬

‫‪0.000000‬‬ ‫‪0.000000‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ )‪(Probability‬‬
‫‪2793‬‬ ‫‪2793‬‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ )‪(Observations‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ )‪.(Eviews.8‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ ﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪ :(CAN‬ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ (CAN‬ﻣﻦ )‪ (2793‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﲤﺘﺪ ﻣﻦ‪ (2005/01/01) :‬ﺇﱃ‪ ،(2014/12/31) :‬ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ (441.60‬ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻈﻤﻰ‪ (6.404120) :‬ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺻﻐﺮﻯ‪ ،(5.413118) :‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻨﺼﻒ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﺳﻴﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ ،(6.134677‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (03‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ (CAN‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ب ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ ﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪ :(CANI‬ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ (CANI‬ﻣﻦ )‪ (2793‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﲤﺘﺪ ﻣﻦ‪ (2005/01/01) :‬ﺇﱃ‪ ،(2014/12/31) :‬ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﻗﺪﺭﻩ‪ (2019.93) :‬ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻈﻤﻰ‪ (8.040179) :‬ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺻﻐﺮﻯ‪ ،(6.89773) :‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻨﺼﻒ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﺳﻴﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ (7.595970‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (04‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ)‪ (CANI‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‪ :(03) :‬ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪(CAN‬‬
‫‪SER01‬‬
‫‪650‬‬
‫‪600‬‬
‫‪550‬‬
‫‪500‬‬
‫‪450‬‬
‫‪400‬‬
‫‪350‬‬
‫‪300‬‬
‫‪250‬‬
‫‪200‬‬
‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪1000‬‬ ‫‪1500‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬ ‫‪2500‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ :(04‬ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ)‪.(CANI‬‬
‫‪SER01‬‬
‫‪3,200‬‬
‫‪2,800‬‬
‫‪2,400‬‬
‫‪2,000‬‬
‫‪1,600‬‬
‫‪1,200‬‬
‫‪800‬‬
‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪1000‬‬ ‫‪1500‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬ ‫‪2500‬‬
‫‪108‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻖ‪ :‬ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻠﲔ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (03‬ﻭ )‪ (04‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺘﲔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮﺗﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﳘﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺑﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺿﺤﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺩﺍﺀﳘﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 3‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻭﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ )‪ (Close Prices‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻖ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‪ :‬ﳌﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺘﻪ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬
‫‪R (Indice) = (Prix Indicet - Prix Indicet-1) / Prix Indicet-1‬‬
‫‪R (Indice ) :‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ) ‪Prix Indice t : ( t‬‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ )‪Prix Indice t-1 : ( t-1‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺗﲔ » ‪ « t‬ﻭ » ‪ « t-1‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫)‪R (Can) = Ln (prix cant / prix cant-1‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪ ( Ln) :‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺏ ‪ -‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻭﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‪:‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺳﻨﻘﻮﻡ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (CANI‬ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ‬
‫)‪ (CAN‬ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ (2005/01/01‬ﺇﱃ ﻏﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،(2014/12/31) :‬ﺃﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﻋﺸﺮ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪2008‬ﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﳑﺎ ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﻟﻨﺎ )‪ (2793‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻛﻼ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﻳﻦ؛ ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻗﺎﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ )‪ (Eviews.8‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻹﻛﺴﻴﻞ )‪ ،(Excel. 2013‬ﰎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻄﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ (05):‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ : (05‬ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﻱ )‪ (CAN‬ﻭ )‪ (CANI‬ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ )‪.(Excel, 2013‬‬
‫‪109‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺕ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ )‪ (CAN‬ﻭ)‪ :(CANI‬ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻟﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ)‪ (05‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ (CAN‬ﻭ)‪ (CANI‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪﻯ‪ ،‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺣﺪﻯ ﻋﺸﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ؛ ﺇﺫ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺤﲎ ﺃ‪‬ﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺣﻘﻘﺎ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﻭ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺓ ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ‪ % 0.09 :‬ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ )‪ ،(2007-2005‬ﰒ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺺ‪،‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺳﺠﻼ ﻫﺒﻮﻃﺎ ﺣﺎﺩ‪‬ﺍ ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺎ ﰲ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺘﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻗﺪﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،% -0.25 :‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪2008‬ﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺷﻬﺪﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺁﻧﺬﺍﻙ ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳍﺎﺋﻞ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ؛ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻼﺧﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﺘﺠﺖ ﻋﻦ ﻭﻓﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻛﻨﺪﺍ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ ﲝﻮﺍﱄ‪ % 18 :‬ﺣﱴ ‪ % 20‬ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺾ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺣﺎﻓﺰﺍ ﻟﻠﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺼﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﲟﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺳﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻐﺎﺀ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻺﻗﺮﺍﺽ ﻭﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋﻊ ﻭﻓﺘﺢ ﺍ‪‬ﺎﻝ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻳﺔ؛ ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ‬
‫ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻛﻨﻘﺺ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻔﺸﻲ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻼﻋﺐ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﻬﻴﻤﻨﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫)‪ ،(Manipulative Elements‬ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻫﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﻃﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻴﻤﺔ )‪ (Excessive Speculation‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻳﺢ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ )ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﺍ‪‬ﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺿﻌﻒ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﺴﺒﺐ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻩ ﰲ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻭﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭ ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻛﻜﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﻨﻮﻋﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ)‪ (CANI‬ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪ (CAN‬ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﳏﻔﻈﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻬﻲ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﳍﻴﺌﺔ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪ ،(W1DOW ) :‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﱪ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫)‪ (Standard Deviation‬ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﹰ ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ )‪ ،(Volatility‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳋﻄﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﰎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻠﺨﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‪ (06) :‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‪ :(06) :‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ )‪ (CAN‬ﻭ )‪.(CANI‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ‪%‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ )‪(Standard deviation‬‬
‫‪0,01 %‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ )‪(W1DOW‬‬
‫‪0,14 %‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪(CANI‬‬
‫‪0,13 %‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪(CAN‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ )‪.(Excel, 2013‬‬
‫‪110‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪ :‬ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺭﻗﻢ‪ (06) :‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (CANI‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪(CAN‬‬
‫ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺣﻘﻘﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻗﺪﺭﻫﺎ‪ (0,14 %) :‬ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ‬
‫ﳐﺎﻃﺮﻩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ )‪ ،(0,13 %‬ﻭﻛﻼﳘﺎ ﺣﻘﻘﺎ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﻛﻠﻴﺔ )ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﳎﺘﻤﻌﺔ( ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺔ‬
‫ﰲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ)‪ ،(W1DOW‬ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ‪ (0,135 %) :‬ﻭﰲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﲟﺎ ﻳﻔﻮﻕ )‪ (13.5‬ﻣﺮﺓ ﰲ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ ) ‪Beta‬‬
‫‪ ،(Coefficient‬ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﹰ ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ )‪ (Sensibility‬ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺙ ﰲ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ‬
‫ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻛﻜﻞ)‪ ،(W1DOW‬ﻭﻳﺪﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳋﻄﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﰎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﻧﻔﺲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ )‪ (‬ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻞ ﰲ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ)‪ (CANI‬ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪ (CAN‬ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺙ ﰲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻛﻜﻞ )‪ .(W1DOW‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ‬
‫)‪ (‬ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻵﺗﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪cov( Ri RM‬‬
‫‪ˆi ‬‬
‫‪ 2M‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : ̂i‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ )ﺍﶈﺴﻮﺏ( ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ)‪ (CANI‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪.(CAN‬‬

‫‪ : RM‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ )ﺗﻐﲑ( ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻛﻜﻞ)‪.(W1DOW‬‬
‫‪ : Ri‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ)‪ (CANI‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪.(CAN‬‬
‫‪ : ‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻛﻜﻞ)‪.(W1DOW‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫ﺑﲔ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‬ ‫) ‪ : cov( Ri RM‬ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺎﻳﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ )‪ :(Covariance‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺿﺮﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫) ‪ ( R i‬ﻭﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ) ‪ ( RM‬ﻣﻀﺮﻭﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‬
‫‪ ( ‬ﻭﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (CANI‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪.( ) (CAN‬‬ ‫)‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻠﺨﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‪ (07) :‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‪ :(07) :‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ )‪ (CAN‬ﻭ )‪.(CANI‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ‪%‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ )‪(Beta Coefficient‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ )‪(W1DOW‬‬
‫‪1,20‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪(CANI‬‬
‫‪1,18‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪(CAN‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ )‪.(Excel, 2013‬‬
‫‪111‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﺿﺤﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‪ (07) :‬ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ (CANI‬ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻛﻜﻞ‬
‫)‪ ،(W1DOW‬ﺍﳌﻌﱪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﲜﻨﻴﺴﻪ )‪(CAN‬؛ ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﰲ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ )ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ( ﰲ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ (CANI‬ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ )‪ ،(1,20‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﲢﺮﻙ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻣﻮﺍﺯ ﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺗﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫) ‪ ،(1< ̂i‬ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ؛ ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ) ‪( ̂i‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪ (CAN‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ )‪ ،(1,18‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻲ‬
‫)‪ ،(W1DOW‬ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ (CAN‬ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ )‪ ،(1,18‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺘﻘﻠﺐ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ) ‪ ،(1< ̂i‬ﻓﻬﺬﺍ ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻧﻈﲑﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪ (CAN‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺟﻨﻴﺴﻪ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻲ )‪ ،(W1DOW‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺑﻌﺎ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ )‪.(T- Bill‬‬
‫ﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﻧﻪ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎ ﻻ ﳔﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻈﲑ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﺮﺷﺪ ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﻮﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﺍﻧﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﳔﺘﱪ ﻗﻮﺓ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ )ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ( ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍﹰ ﻷﻥ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻀﻤﻬﺎ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻮ‪‬ﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺻﺮﺍﺣﺔ ﰲ ﻧﺸﺮﺍﺕ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ (T- Bill‬ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎﹰ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻫﺎﻣﺸﺎﹰ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎﹰ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﻀﻮﻳﺔ ﲢﺖ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺭﺗﺄﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﰎ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﻠﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺫﻛﺮﻫﺎ ﺁﻧﻔﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﴰﻠﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ )‪ (132‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﺷﻬﺮﻳﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺮﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﻭﻝ ﺳﺘﺮﻳﺖ‬
‫ﻟﻸﺧﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ )‪ ،(Journal of Wall Street‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﰎ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻏﻼﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻱ ﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻗﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﳍﺎ؛ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ )‪ ،(Correlation Coefficient‬ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ )ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ( ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺳﻌﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﳌﺪﺓ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﺒﻮﻋﺎ ﺑﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﱪﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ )‪(Eviews.8‬‬
‫ﻭﻛﺬﺍ )‪(Excel.2013‬؛ ﻭﺃﺧﲑﺍﹰ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺧﺎﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ :‬ﰎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ) ‪Correlation‬‬
‫‪ ،(Coefficient‬ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ‬
‫ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ‬
‫ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻭﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪112‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻗﺮ‪‬ﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ‬
‫)‪ ،(1 ±‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺗﻘﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ )‪ ،(-1< p <1‬ﻓﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺑﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ )‪ (p‬ﻣﻦ ) ‪ (1‬ﺃﻭ )‪-‬‬
‫‪ ،(1‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻗﻮﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﻓﺎﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻃﺮﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﻓﺎﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻓﻬﺬﺍ ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺏ ‪ -‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ )‪ :(T- Bill‬ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺪﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻭﺗﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ )‪ (CANI‬ﻭ)‪ (CAN‬ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﶈﺴﻮﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﳌﺪﺓ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺷﻬﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﻄﻠﻘﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺘﲔ ﺍﻵﺗﻴﺘﲔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :H0‬ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﻀﻮﻳﺔ ﲢﺖ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﻨﻮﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :H1‬ﻻ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﻀﻮﻳﺔ ﲢﺖ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﻨﻮﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (08‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ :(08‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻭﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ )‪ (CAN‬ﻭ )‪.(CANI‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ )‪(Sig* = 5%‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ )‪(p‬‬ ‫ﺇﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫‪0 ,3619‬‬ ‫‪-0,08‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪(CANI‬‬
‫‪0,0191‬‬ ‫‪-0,20‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪(CAN‬‬
‫‪* Correlation is significant at the (0.05) level (2-tailed).‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺎﻹﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ )‪.(Eviews.8‬‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﺣﺴﺒﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (08‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ )ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪– 2005‬‬
‫ﺩﻳﺴﻤﱪ ‪2015‬ﻡ(‪ ،‬ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﻨﻮﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﺍﻧﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ‬
‫ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪ ،(CANI‬ﻗﺪ ﺑﻠﻎ )‪ ،(-0,08‬ﺑﺈﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ )ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ( ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﰲ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ (CANI‬ﺑـ )‪ ،(0,08‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﺟﺪﺍ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍﹰ ﻟﻌﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺷﺎﺩ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﻨﻀﻮﻳﺔ ﲢﺖ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ‪ -‬ﲟﻌﺪﻝ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎﹰ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻫﺎﻣﺶ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﰲ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ؛ ﻭﳑﺎ ﻳﻌﺰﺯ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﻨﻮﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‬
‫)‪ ،(CANI‬ﻷﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ )‪ (Sig = 0 ,3619‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ )‪ (0,05‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺨﺬ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﺍﻧﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ)‪(CANI‬؛‬
‫‪113‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺣﲔ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﺀ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺈﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ )ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ( ﻛﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ )‪ ،(CAN‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺑﻠﻎ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ )‪ ،(- 0,20‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﰲ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺑــــ‪ ،(0,20) :‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺿﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﺟﺪﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ )‪ ،(CAN‬ﻷﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ )‪ (Sig = 0,0191‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﺻﻐﺮ ﻣﻦ )‪ (0,05‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻧﺴﺘﺒﻌﺪ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﺍﻧﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ)‪(CAN‬؛ ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺻﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﺮﻓﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ) ﻻ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﻀﻮﻳﺔ ﲢﺖ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﻨﻮﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻌﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫‪ - III-‬ﺧﺎﲤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﻫﺪﻓﺖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺷﻬﺪ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻏﲑﺕ ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻛﺒﲑ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼﹰ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺂﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﺟﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (Financial Globalization‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻓﺮﺿﺘﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺮﻧﺔ ﺗﺘﺴﻢ ﲝﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ؛ ﺇﺫ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺭﺻﻴﺔ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻮ‪‬ﺎ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﺬﺏ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻭﲤﻜﻴﻨﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻛﻔﺎﺀ‪‬ﺎ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪‬ﺎ ﻹﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ ﰲ ﳏﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻮﻁ ﺿﺪ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ؛ ﻭﻗﺪ ﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻠﺬﺍﻥ ﻳﻬﺪﻓﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﻭﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻏﻼﻗﻬﻤﺎ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ‪ (2005/01/01) :‬ﺇﱃ ﻏﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،(2015/12/31) :‬ﳑﺎ ﻭﻓﺮ ﻟﻨﺎ )‪ (2793‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ )‪ (132‬ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺷﻬﺮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫* ﺃﻭﻻ * ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ *‪ :‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺿﻨﺎ ﳌﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺇﱃ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﺘﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳐﺎﻃﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺕ‪ .‬ﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﺘﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﱃ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﳐﺎﻃﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺙ‪ .‬ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ )ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ( ﻭﺍﳋﺴﺎﺭﺓ )ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻧﺴﺐ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﻤﻮﺡ ‪‬ﺎ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻳﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﻫﻲ‪ :‬ﻧﺴﺒﱵ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﻭﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺮﻙ‬
‫ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺮﻙ )‪ 24‬ﺷﻬﺮﺍ( ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ )‪(% 33‬؛‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﺒﺾ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ )‪ ،(%45‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪.( CANI‬‬
‫ﺡ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻋﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﻄﻮﺭﺕ ﲟﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﳕﻮ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ‪.(% 20 – 15) :‬‬
‫ﺥ‪ .‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻐﻄﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪114‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻩ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﻨﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﰎ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﺰﺩﻭﺝ )ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ – ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺫ‪ .‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﻳﻦ )‪ (CAN‬ﻭ )‪ (CANI‬ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪2005‬ﻡ ﻭﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺩﺓ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪2009‬م‪.‬‬
‫ﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻭﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻭﺗﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺩﻻﻟﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫* ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ * ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ :‬ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﻨﻮﻋﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲨﺔ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﺻﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (CANI‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪ ،(CAN‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﺎﻗﺖ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﻛﻜﻞ )‪ ،(W1DOW‬ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪-‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺒﻤﺎ ﺗﺮﺍﻩ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪ -‬ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﱪﺯ ﰲ‬
‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻮﺩﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ )ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ( ﻭﺍﳋﺴﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫)ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ(‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﺟﻌﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (CANI‬ﻣﺘﻘﻠﺒﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻨﻴﺴﻪ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ)‪ ،(CAN‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺯﺍﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﻮﻋﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻮﺛﺮ ﺟﻮﺍﺑﺮ ﻭ ﺑﻦ ﺻﺎﱀ‬
‫)‪ ،(Kaouthar Jouaber, M. Ben Salah ; 2009‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺒﲑ ﺣﺴﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺇﻳﺮﻳﻚ ﺟﲑﺍﺭﺩ ) ‪Kabir‬‬
‫‪ ،(Hassan & Eric Girard, 2010‬ﺑﻴﺪ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻋﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻮﻳﻊ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﳌﺎ ﲤﻨﺤﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺇﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﰲ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻐﻄﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﺻﻜﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﲝﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺭﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺼﻨﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻀﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻜﺘﱰﻫﺎ ﺗﺮﺛﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻬﻲ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﻱ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ )‪ (CANI‬ﻭﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪(CAN‬‬
‫ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺪﻱ ﺑﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﻀﻮﻳﺔ‬
‫ﲢﺘﻬﺎ ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﺮﺷﺪ ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺟﺎﺀﺕ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻟﻜﺴﻴﺲ ﻏﻮﻳﻮﺕ )‪ ،(Alexis Guyot, 2009‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺧﻠﺺ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﻱ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ )‪ (T-Bill‬ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﻳﻦ ﺁﻧﻔﺎ؛ ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﺎ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﱰﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻮﺭﺻﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳜﻔﺾ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪ؛ ﻭﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ ،(T-Bill‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺮﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺚ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ؛ ﺇﺫ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﰲ ﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ) ‪ShSB : Shariah Supervisory‬‬
‫‪ ،(Board‬ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﳌﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻈﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺛﻘﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ )ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺣﻴﻮﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻛﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺼﻤﻤﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ) ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ( ﻭﺍﳋﺴﺎﺭﺓ )ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ(‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﺟﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺎﳘﺖ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭﺍ‪‬ﺎ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪2008‬ﻡ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻜﺲ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫* ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ * ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ *‪ :‬ﺗﺘﺴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺻﺮﺓ ﺑﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺗﻄﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻳﻮﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻲ ﻳﺘﺴﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﲢﻮﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪115‬‬ ‫‪JFBE‬‬
‫ ﻗﯾﺎس ﻣﺧﺎطر اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳواق‬- ‫زوﻟﯾﺧﺔ ﺑﺧﺗﻰ‬.‫ د‬،‫ ﻣﻐﻧﯾﺔ ﻫواري‬.‫ د‬،‫ ﻧﻌﺟﺔ ﻋﺑد اﻟرﺣﻣﺎن‬.‫د‬
-"(DJIM) ‫اﻟﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ وﺗﺄﺛﯾرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠوك اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺛﻣرﯾن " ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣؤﺷرات داو ﺟوﻧز اﻹﺳﻼﻣﯾﺔ‬
.‫ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺳﻌﻲ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﻣﻨﺔ ﺑﺮﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬.1
‫ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﳉﻨﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﰲ‬.2
.‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﺘﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﻱ‬
.‫ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺣﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺿﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺃﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﳍﺎ‬.3
.‫ﺎ‬‫ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺎ‬.4
.‫ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻷﻏﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ‬.5
:‫ﺍﳍﻮﺍﻣﺶ‬
1
: Nagaoka Shinsuke; Critical Overview of the History of Islamic Economics: Formation, Transformation,
and New Horizons, Loc.cit, pp: 125-126.
2
: Ahmed Belouafi, Abdelkader Chachi (2014); Islamic Finance in the United Kingdom: Factors Behind its
Development and Growth, Islamic Economic Studies, Vol. 22, N°01, May, 2014, pp: 37-78.
3
: Alexis GUYOT, Les préceptes de la Shari'ah contribuent-ils à l'efficience et à la performance des marchés
d’actions ? Une étude comparative des indices Dow Jones Islamic, pp : 01-29. Available
at :https://www.gate.cnrs.fr/unecaomc08/Communications%20PDF/Texte%20Alexis%20GUYOT.pdf.
Consulted (15/07/2017).
4
: Kaouthar Jouaber, M. Ben Salah (2009), The Performance of Islamic Market Indexes in Catastrophic
Market Events, Document de recherché, Université Paris- Dauphine.
5
: Kabir HASSAN, Eric GIRARD (2010), Faith-Based Ethical Investing: The Case of Dow Jones Islamic
Indexes, Islamic Economic Studies, Vol. 17, No. 2, January, pp: 01-31.
6
: Risqo Muslimin Wahid, (2014), Between BRIC and G3: Shariah-Compliant Stock Markets Cointegration,
Journal of Islamic Banking and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 1, March, pp. 59-78
7
: Matthew Bishop (2004), Essential Economics, the Economist Newspaper, Profile Books Ltd, London, p: 230.
8
: Zvi Bodi et Robert Merton (2011), Finance, Nouveaux Horizons – ARS, Paris, 3éme Edition, pp: 293-294.
9
: Vaughan Emmett and another (1999),” Fundamentals of Risk and Insurance”, John Wiley & sons Edition,
New York, USA, P: 07.
10
: Erik Banks (2005), Financial Lexicon, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, USA, 1st Edition, p: 314.
.109 :‫ ﺹ‬، 1985‫ ﺳﻨﺔ‬،1‫ ﺝ‬،‫ ﻣﺼﺮ‬،‫ ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬- ‫ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬،‫ ﺳﻴﺪ‬،‫ ﺍﳍﻮﺍﺭﻱ‬:‫ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺑﺘﺼﺮﻑ‬:11
.112:‫ ﺹ‬، 1997 ‫ ﺳﻨﺔ‬،1 ‫ ﻁ‬،‫ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬،‫ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‬،‫ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﻔﻴﻖ‬،‫ﻃﻨﻴﺐ ﻋﺒﻴﺪﺍﺕ‬
.16:‫ ﺹ‬،2003 ‫ ﻁ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ‬،‫ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‬،‫ ﻃﺎﺭﻕ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻝ ﲪﺎﺩ‬:12
13
: John .F. Marshall (2000), Dictionary of Financial Engineering, John Wiley and Sons Edition, New York,
USA, p: 172.
14
: Matthew Bishop, Essential Economics, op. cit, p: 253.
15
: Peter F. Christoffersen (2003), Elements of Financial Risk Management, Academic Press, California, USA,
p: 05.
16
: Laurent Condamin and al (2006), Risk Quantification: Management, Diagnosis and Hedging, John Wiley
and Sons Edition, Chichester, England, p: 06.
.39 :‫ ﺹ‬،‫ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ‬،‫ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬،‫ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺮﻱ‬:17
18
: John .F. Marshall, Dictionary of Financial Engineering, op. cit, p: 181.
19
: Matthew Bishop, Essential Economics, op. cit, p: 253.
20
: John .F. Marshall, op. cit, p: 124.
21
: Peter F. Christoffersen, Elements of Financial Risk Management, op, cit, p: 05.
.40 :‫ ﺹ‬،‫ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬،‫ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺮﻱ‬:22
23
: Finnerty, J.D (1988), Financial engineering in corporate finance: An overview, Financial Management, vol.
17, Issue. 4, pp: 56-59.
24
: Michel. Ibrahim, Fadi. A. Farhat (2007): “Dictionary of Business and Finance”, Dar-El Kotob Al-Ilmiyah,
first Edition, Lebanon, pp: 241-242.
‫ ﻫﻲ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ‬: (International Association of Financial Engineers): (IAFE): ‫ ﺍﳉﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻬﻨﺪﺳﲔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﲔ‬:25
،‫ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻀﻢ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺷﱴ ﺃﳓﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﳝﺜﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﲔ‬، 1992 ‫ﺃﻧﺸﺌﺖ ﺧﺼﻴﺼﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻬﻨﺪﺳﲔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﲔ ﻟﺮﻋﺎﻳﺘﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻻﺭﺗﻘﺎﺀ ﺑﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
116 JFBE
‫ ﻗﯾﺎس ﻣﺧﺎطر اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳواق‬- ‫زوﻟﯾﺧﺔ ﺑﺧﺗﻰ‬.‫ د‬،‫ ﻣﻐﻧﯾﺔ ﻫواري‬.‫ د‬،‫ ﻧﻌﺟﺔ ﻋﺑد اﻟرﺣﻣﺎن‬.‫د‬
-"(DJIM) ‫اﻟﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ وﺗﺄﺛﯾرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠوك اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺛﻣرﯾن " ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣؤﺷرات داو ﺟوﻧز اﻹﺳﻼﻣﯾﺔ‬
‫ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺗﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ‬،‫ﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺭﻓﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ ﻭﺍ‬،‫ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻈﻢ‬،‫ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ‬،‫ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﻴﲔ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﲔ‬
.‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬
26
: John .F. Marshall (2000): “Dictionary of Financial Engineering”, John Wiley and Sons Edition, New York,
USA, p: 79. Jack Marshall (2005):“What Is Financial Engineering? Available at : www.fenews.com/what-is-
fe/what-is-fe.htm) .Consulted (26/10/16).
27
: Felix UO, Rebecca LI, Onyeisi OR (2015), The Role of Financial Engineering in the Growth of the
Financial Market, Arabian Journal of Business Management Review; Vol. 5, Iss. 4, pp: 01-08.
،2‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬،20‫ﻠﺪ‬‫ ﺍ‬،‫ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬،‫ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻠﻚ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ‬،‫ ﳎﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‬،"‫ "ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬:‫ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﱘ ﻗﻨﺪﻭﺯ‬:28
‫ ﺑﻨﻚ‬،26 ‫ﻠﺪ‬‫ ﺍ‬،‫ ﳎﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ‬،" ‫ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻠﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬:‫" ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬:‫ ﻓﺘﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﲪﻦ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺻﺎﱀ‬.19:‫ ﺹ‬،2007‫ﺳﻨﺔ‬
:‫ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻂ ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‬،2002‫ ﺩﻳﺴﻤﱪ‬،‫ ﺍﳋﺮﻃﻮﻡ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﻥ‬
www.bankofsudan.org/arabic/period/masrafi/vol_26/masrafi_26.htm. Consulté le (26/10/16).
‫ ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ‬،‫ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬،‫ ﺑﻠﻌﺰﻭﺯ ﺑﻦ ﻋﻠﻲ‬،‫ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﱘ ﻗﻨﺪﻭﺯ‬:29
.17:‫ ﺹ‬،‫ﻡ‬2007 ‫ ﺳﻨﺔ‬،‫ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬،‫ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺘﻮﻧﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻧﻴﺔ‬،"‫" ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬:‫ ﺣﻮﻝ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫ " ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻫﻨﺔ‬:‫ ﺍﳌﻠﺘﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﺣﻮﻝ‬،‫ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬:‫ ﻣﺪﺍﱐ ﺃﲪﺪ‬،‫ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﱘ ﻗﻨﺪﻭﺯ‬:30
.06:‫ ﺹ‬،2009 ‫ ﺳﻨﺔ‬،‫ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬،‫ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻲ ﲞﻤﻴﺲ ﻣﻠﻴﺎﻧﺔ‬،"‫ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﳕﻮﺫﺟﺎﹰ‬:‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺃﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺃ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﲑ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ‬،(‫ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻭﻝ ﺭﺋﻴﺲ ﲢﺮﻳﺮ ﻟﺼﺤﻴﻔﺔ )ﻭﻭﻝ ﺳﺘﺮﻳﺖ‬:‫ ﺗﺸﺎﺭﻟﺰ ﺩﺍﻭ‬:31
.232‫ ﺹ‬،‫ﻡ‬2006‫ ﺳﻨﺔ‬،2‫ ﻁ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬،‫ ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﻠﻚ ﻓﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬،‫ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬،‫ ﻓﻬﺪ ﺍﳊﻮﳝﺎﱐ‬:‫ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ‬.‫ﺑﺎﲰﻪ‬
‫ ﳎﻠﺔ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﻧﺰ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬،‫ ﺗﺮﻗﻮ ﳏﻤﺪ‬،‫ ﻏﺮﺍﺑﺔ ﺯﻫﲑ‬:32
.162-141‫ﺹ‬-‫ ﺹ‬،‫ﻡ‬2013‫ ﺳﻨﺔ‬،02 ‫ ﻉ‬،‫ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮﻳﺔ‬
.143:‫ ﺹ‬،‫ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬،‫ ﺗﺮﻗﻮ ﳏﻤﺪ‬،‫ ﻏﺮﺍﺑﺔ ﺯﻫﲑ‬:33
34
: Frank .k Reilly ,Keith. C, Brown, (2003); Investment-Analysis and Portfolio Management, 7thed, Australia
Thomson, South Western, p: 150.
.396‫ ﺹ‬،‫ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ‬،‫ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ‬،‫ ﺳﺎﻣﺮ ﻣﻈﻬﺮ ﻗﻨﻄﻘﺠﻲ‬:35
36
: Rushdi Siddiqui (2000), Dow Jones Islamic Market Index, Islamic banking and Finance, America; July 14-
16, Available at: http://www.borsaistanbul.com /docs/defaultsource /research /rushdi-siddiqui.pdf? . Consulted :(
14/07/2017).
37
: Sam Hakim & Manouchehr Rashidian, Risk & Return of Islamic Stock Market Indexes, Available at:
http://mafhoum.com/press4/136E15.pdf . Consulted :( 26/07/2017).
38
: S & P Dow Jones Indexes (2017) , The Dow Jones Islamic Market Index: Screens for Shari'ah
compliance. Available at: http://www.djindexes.com/islamicmarket/?go=shariah-compliance. Consulted:
(28/07/2017).
39
: S & P Dow Jones Indexes (2017), Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes SM - Dow Jones Indexes. Available
at:https://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/rulebooks/Dow_Jones_Islamic_Market_Indexes. Consulted:
(28/07/2017).
40
: Djindexes (2003), Guide To The Dow J ones Islamic Market Index, June, 2003; Available at:
https://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/ rulebooks/Dow_ Jones_Islamic_Market _Indices_Rulebook
.pdf . Consulted: (28/07/2017).
117 JFBE

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‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﻗﯾﺎس ﻣﺧﺎطر اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳواق اﻟﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ وﺗﺄﺛﯾرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠوك اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺛﻣرﯾن‬

‫ﺍﻟﺷﻛل ﺭﻗﻡ‪ :01‬ﯾﻣﺛل ﺃﺻﻧﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎﺭﯾﺔ‬

‫اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮة اﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﯿﺔ )‪(Systematic Risk‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻼ ﻧﻅﺎﻣﯾﺔ )‪(Unsystematic Risk‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺗﻧﺷﺄ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻣل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺗﺭﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ‬

‫اﻟﺷﻛل رﻗم‪ :02‬ﯾﻣﺛل اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯾن أﺻﻧﺎف اﻟﻣﺧﺎطر اﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﺮﻣﺰ‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬

‫)‪(CES‬‬ ‫‪Canadian Energy Service‬‬

‫)‪(C.C‬‬ ‫‪Cogeco Communications‬‬

‫)‪(CH‬‬ ‫‪Concordia Healthcare‬‬

‫)‪(PS‬‬ ‫‪Performance Sports‬‬

‫)‪(VRX‬‬ ‫‪Valeant Pharmaceuticals‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‪:‬‬

‫‪122.0033‬‬ ‫‪520.6047‬‬ ‫ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ )‪(Jarque-Bera‬‬

‫‪R (Indice ) :‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪ ( Ln) :‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ : ̂i‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺘﺎ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ )ﺍﶈﺴﻮﺏ( ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ)‪ (CANI‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻗﻲ )‪.(CAN‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻠﺨﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‪ (07) :‬ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ‪:‬‬

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