Target 2019 Economy II
Target 2019 Economy II
Target 2019 Economy II
INDEX
1. Growth and Development ................................. 7 7.3 Periodic Labour Force Survey - NSSO ...................... 28
1.1 Quarterly Growth Estimates - CSO ............................. 7 7.4 Improvising the 59-minute Loan Scheme ................... 29
1.2 Crisil report on GSDP growth .................................... 7 7.5 United States Reciprocal Trade Act ........................... 29
1.3 Revised estimates of GDP ........................................... 8 7.6 Withdrawal of U.S.'s Trade Concessions ................... 30
6.1 Currency Swap Arrangement .................................... 24 7.33 Transport and Marketing Assistance (TMA) Scheme. 38
6.2 Bilateral Swap Arrangement ..................................... 24 7.34 Global Trade Mark System Agreements .................... 38
7.1 Global Worries on VUCA Factors ............................ 27 8.7 Noney Bridge ............................................................. 41
7.2 e-Nam Inter State Trade ............................................ 28 8.8 Dhubri-Phulbari Bridge ............................................ 41
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TARGET 2019
ECONOMY - II
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However, most states were found to have breached their targets under the fiscal responsibility and budget
management act.
2. PUBLIC FINANCE
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Standard Deduction - For salaried persons, a Standard Deduction is raised to Rs.50,000 from Rs.40,000
i.e Rs.50,000 can be exempted from Taxatioon.
TDS threshold - TDS threshold on interest earned on bank/post office deposits is being raised from
Rs.10,000 to Rs.40,000.
Housing & Real Estate –
1. Income tax on notional rent on a second self-occupied house is also now exempted.
2. TDS threshold for deduction of tax on rent is to be increased from Rs.1,80,000 to Rs.2,40,000.
3. Rollover of capital gains under section 54 of the Income Tax Act will be increased from investment in
one residential house to two residential houses for a tax payer having capital gains up to Rs.2 crore. This
benefit can be availed once in a life time.
4. Section 80-IBA - Tax on notional rent, on unsold inventories, has been exempted from one year to two
years, from the end of the year in which the project is completed (applicable to project approved till 31st
March, 2020).
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In simple terms, angel tax is the tax levied on such investments made by external investors in startups or
companies.
At times, capital is raised by unlisted companies via issue of shares where the share price is seen in excess of
the 'fair market value' of the shares sold.
So the entire investment is not taxed but only the amount that is considered above ―fair value‖ valuations of
the startup.
Currently, funds from angels are subjected to over 30% tax if it is more than the fair market value (FMV).
It was introduced in the 2012 Union Budget to arrest laundering of illegal wealth by means of investments in
the shares of unlisted private companies at extraordinary valuations.
However, under certain conditions, exemption to startups is offered under Section 56 of the Income Tax Act.
The share issued to an investor has to be valued to decide whether the price is in excess of fair value.
The valuation of a startup is usually based on a commercial negotiation between the company and the
investor.
It is based on the company‘s 'projected earnings' at that point in time.
However, as startups operate in a highly uncertain environment, many are not always able to perform as per
their financial projection.
Equally, some companies exceed the projection if they are doing well.
Resultantly, startups are often valued subjectively and it causes differing interpretations of ―fair value‖.
Startups are thus vulnerable to unduly high taxes because the taxman feels the investment is too high over
their valuation.
The proposals aim to simplify the process of exemptions for Startups under section 56 of the Income Tax act.
An entity shall be considered a startup up to 10 years from its date of incorporation / registration instead of
the existing period of 7 years.
The turnover for any of the financial years since its incorporation/registration should not have exceeded Rs
100 crore (instead of the existing Rs 25 crore).
All investments into eligible startups by Non-Residents, Alternate Investment Funds-Category I registered
with SEBI shall also be exempt under Section 56 of IT Act.
Stringent rules on angel tax have had an adverse effect on investor confidence in startups.
So the relaxations will help the start-ups which are in desperate need for capital to fund their growth and other
business requirements.
Further, the new rules are set to be applied retrospectively.
So many young companies that have received notices from the IT Department in the last few years will be
relieved by the change in rules.
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3. INFLATION
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4. BANKING
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The internal benchmark is not influenced solely by the policy rate cut but depends on a variety of factors.
So, policy rate cuts often do not reach the borrowers i.e. when the RBI cuts repo rate there is no guarantee a
borrower will get the benefit of it.
Also, the MCLR system is opaque since it is an internal benchmark that depends on the way a bank does its
business.
The new system will come into effect from April 1, 2019.
Banks will then have to link their lending rates charged on different categories of loans with an external
benchmark instead of MCLR.
The RBI has given the following options to banks:
i. RBI repo rate
ii. the 91-day T-bill yield
iii. the 182-day T-bill yield
iv. any other benchmark market interest rate produced by the Financial Benchmarks India Pvt. Ltd
One of these benchmarks will be used to decide the lending rate in addition to the spread.
Banks will be free to decide their spread value but it will have to be fixed for the tenure of the loan.
However, it can change if the credit score of the borrower changes.
The interest rates under the new system will change every month.
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This provision is required to protect the Code from being taken lightly, and ensure that a resolution happens
as planned.
The Liberty House, an international metals and industrial group, had made a successful resolution plan for a
defaulted company, Amtek Auto, earlier this year.
The terms of the resolution plan were also approved by the adjudicating authority (NCLT).
However, Liberty House failed to pay the banks according to the terms of the resolution plan.
Liberty House alleges that there were serious issues in the information and valuation reports shared with it
prior to the bidding process.
Hence, the lenders to Amtek Auto have moved the Chandigarh bench of the NCLT to invoke Section 74 against
the Liberty House Group.
Once the Section is invoked by the Committee of Creditors, it is up to the NCLT to decide on the course of
action with respect to the corporate debtor.
The NCLT can then either decide to allow the resolution professional of the corporate debtor to invite fresh
bids, or penalise the erring bidder with jail and fine as per Section 74.
In case there are no fresh bidders, the NCLT can also allow liquidation of such corporate debtors.
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Under Section 53 of the IBC, in the event of liquidation of the company or its sale to another entity, the dues of
operational creditors rank below those of financial creditors, workmen and employees.
This was challenged by the operational creditors, who wanted equal treatment with financial creditors in this
regard.
Currently, the Committee of Creditors (CoC) constituted for bankrupt firms only comprise all financial
creditors, like banks.
And since operational creditors don't have a place in the CoC, they have no voting rights when the committee
decides on what to do with an asset.
Thus, several operational creditors had moved the court arguing that the bankruptcy code violates Article 14.
But the Court justified the existing differentiation by making a salient distinction between financial debts,
which are secured, and operational debts, which are unsecured.
Also, the original IBC contains no provision for the operational creditors to attend the Committee of Creditors
of the lender banks.
The court noted further that there can be cases where the goods and services that are supplied by operational
creditor may be substandard or they may not have been supplied at all.
Thus, the court rejected the plea by operational creditors' seeking parity with secured financial creditors at the
time of inviting bids for the corporate resolution plan under the IBC.
On Infrastructure - The court directed the setting up of the circuit branches of the National Company Law
Appellate Tribunal within a period of six months.
This is to ensure that people from other metropolis need not travel to Delhi for the adjudication of issues by
the NCLAT.
On case resolution - Approximately 3,300 cases have been disposed of in out-of-court settlements with
claims amounting to over Rs 1.20 trillion.
Also, the amount realised from the resolution process under the IBC was around Rs 60,000 crore, roughly
200% of the liquidation value.
The Court has thus provided an emphatic nod in favour of the IBC resolution process.
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The gross NPA ratio of banks in industry sector has come down to 20.9% in September 2018 quarter.
Also, the annualised slippage ratio decelerated massively to 5% as against 13.6% in March 2018.
Slippage ratio is defined as the ratio of increase in NPAs during the year with respect to standard advances at
the beginning of the year.
The declining trend was also witnessed in service sector, where gross NPA ratio came down to 2.1% along with
stressed asset ratio at 6.5% in September 2018.
On the other hand, this was not the case for agriculture and retail sector.
Among the sub-sectors within industry, stressed advances ratios of ‗mining‘, ‗food processing‘ and
‗construction‘ sectors have increased in September 2018 as compared to March 2018.
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Also, share of large borrowers in SCBs‘ total loan portfolios and their share in GNPAs was at 54.6%and
83.4%respectively at the end of September 2018.
Top 100 large borrowers accounted for 16.0%of gross advances and 21.2%of GNPAs of SCBs.
However, in terms of percentage change in the asset quality of large borrowers, proportion of stressed amount
has come down from 30.4%in March 2018 to 25.4%in September 2018.
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Much of the surplus that the RBI generates comes from the interest on government assets, or from the capital
gains through other market participants.
When this is paid to the government as dividend, the RBI is actually putting back into the system the money it
has made from it.
Logically, there is no additional money-printing or reserve-creation involved.
But when the RBI pays an additional dividend to the government, it has to create additional permanent
reserves i.e. it has to print money.
Instead, to compensate for the special dividend, the RBI would have to withdraw an equivalent amount of
money from the public.
The RBI does this by selling government bonds in its portfolio.
Besides, all central banks worry that large payouts could limit their ability to create buffers to make up for the
impact of a crisis.
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Bank of India had a net NPA of 5.87%, while Bank of Maharashtra‘s NPA was 5.91%.
In case of Oriental Bank of Commerce, the net NPA is 7.15% in the third quarter.
The government had since infused sufficient capital and the bank had brought down the net NPA to less than
6%.
Thus, the RBI decided to remove these banks, along with Oriental Bank of Commerce, after a review of the
performance of these three banks.
These banks have met the regulatory norms including Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB) norms.
It pointed out that these lenders were not in breach of the PCA parameters on the basis of their results in the
third quarter, except Return on Assets (RoA).
According to rules, bank having negative RoA for at least two consecutive years will come under the PCA
framework.
However, the RBI said the lenders with weak ROA have given it in writing that they would comply with the
norms of minimum regulatory capital, net NPA and leverage ratio on an ongoing basis.
Further, they have told the RBI that they are making various structural and systemic improvements.
Also, the government has also said the capital requirements of these banks will be duly factored in while
making bank-wise capital allocations during the current financial year.
Taking all the above into consideration, these banks are taken out of the PCA framework subject to certain
conditions and continuous monitoring.
Capital Conservation Buffer
CCB is a relatively new concept, introduced under the international Basel III norms.
The concept says that during good times, banks must build up a capital buffer that can be drawn from when
there is stress.
In India, the minimum capital requirement is 9%.
The CCB would be 2.5 percentage points over and above the minimum capital requirement.
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The RBI argued that the circular had been issued in the public interest, with a view to ensure the timely
resolution of stressed assets.
It was intended to stop the ―evergreening‖ of bad loans.
Several companies from the power and shipping sectors had challenged the circular.
They had argued that the time given by the RBI was not enough to tackle bad debt.
Power producers contended that the RBI‘s ‗one-size-fits-all‘ approach was impractical as the sector had to
confront many external factors.
These included the unavailability of coal and gas, and problems arising out of state governments' failure to
honour power purchase agreements. Click here to know more.
These factors were beyond its control, and so made an early revival difficult for them.
The total debt impacted by the circular stands at Rs 3.8 lakh crore across 70 large borrowers.
These include Rs 2 lakh crore across 34 borrowers in the power sector alone.
As of March 31, 2018, 92% of this debt had been classified as non-performing, and banks have made
provisions of over 25-40% on these accounts.
The government too had asked the RBI to make sector-specific relaxations in the timeline for the
implementation of the circular.
5. FINANCIAL MARKET
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6. EXTERNAL SECTOR
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FDI Limit - E-commerce means buying and selling of goods and services including digital products over
digital & electronic network.
100% FDI under automatic route is permitted in marketplace model of e-commerce.
Marketplace based model of e-commerce means providing an IT platform by an e-commerce entity on a digital
& electronic network to act as a facilitator between buyer and seller.
However, FDI is not permitted in inventory based model of e-commerce.
Inventory based model of e-commerce means an e-commerce activity where inventory of goods and services is
owned by e-commerce entity and is sold to the consumers directly.
Control - E-commerce entity providing a marketplace should not exercise ownership or control over the
inventory i.e. goods purported to be sold.
If more than 25% of the inventories of an E-commerce entity are linked to a single seller, it ceases to be an
intermediary between buyers and sellers.
Such an E-commerce entity will be treated as an inventory based model rather than a market-place platform.
Equity holding - An entity having equity participation by e-commerce marketplace entity will not be
permitted to sell its products on the platform run by such marketplace entity.
Hence, a product in which, say, Amazon or Flipkart have a stake cannot be sold on their respective platforms.
Responsibility - In a marketplace model, goods/services made available for sale electronically on website
should clearly provide name, address and other contact details of the seller.
Post sales, delivery of goods to the customers and customer satisfaction will be responsibility of the seller.
Any warrantee/ guarantee of goods and services sold will be the responsibility of the seller.
Also, e-commerce marketplace entity will not mandate any seller to sell any product exclusively on its platform
only.
Price - E-commerce entities providing marketplace will not directly or indirectly influence the sale price of
goods or services and should maintain a level playing field.
Also, cash back provided by group companies of marketplace entity to buyers should be fair and non-
discriminatory.
The above decision will take effect from 01 February, 2019.
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The upsurge is driven by stronger economic conditions in advanced economies, particularly the US.
Also, the increase in oil prices has a positive impact on outflows from some Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries.
This, notably, include the UAE which reported a 13% growth in outflows for the first half of 2018.
Bangladesh and Pakistan both experienced strong upticks of 17.9% and 6.2% in 2018, respectively.
But for 2019, it is projected that remittances growth for the South Asian region will slow to 4.3% due to -
i. moderation of growth in advanced economies
ii. lower migration to the GCC
iii. the benefits from the oil price spurt dissipating
Future - The future growth of remittances is vulnerable to lower oil prices, and restrictive migration policies.
Also, the global economic growth is projected to moderate in the coming year.
So future remittances to low- and middle-income countries are expected to grow only moderately by 4% to
reach USD 549 billion in 2019.
Global remittances are expected to grow 3.7% to USD 715 billion in 2019.
Remittance cost - The report highlights that even with technological advances, remittances fees remain too
high.
The global average cost of sending USD 200 remains high at 6.9% in the third quarter of 2018.
The average cost of remitting in South Asia was the lowest at 5.4%, while Sub-Saharan Africa continued to
have the highest at 9%.
Notably, reducing remittance flows to 3% by 2030 is a global target under Sustainable Development Goal
(SDG) 10.7.
Increasing the volume of remittances is also a global goal under the proposals for raising financing for the
SDGs.
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If there is a change in the Exchange rate, Nominal Exchange rate is less affected as compared to the Real
exchange rate.
7. GENERAL ECONOMY
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Management techniques were always based on assumptions about the future, and the use of planning is a
major tool of management control.
Complexities - Globalization has pushed the boundaries of doing business, which has only created a wide
gap between developed and underdeveloped markets, increasing the competition from new entrants.
The biggest fact today is that the start-ups are giving competition to established businesses in many sectors;
bigger and established players are dumbfounded due to creativity and innovation from smaller firms.
Organizations today need 24×7 innovative pool of employees, those who can just keep innovation pumping at
all levels of business.
Ambiguity - Too much of information keeps pouring in from everywhere, creating more and more ambiguity.
Customers have a lot of information and they are confused about what to buy, how to buy, from where to buy,
at what price to buy.
Globalization has paved way for a growing number of multichannel at all levels, from governments to citizens,
and each is stumbling with their own set of priorities and responsibilities.
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Thus, while the phenomenon of unemployment is rising on one hand, the LFPR dipped on the other.
This shows that people are simply giving up on finding jobs and have stopped seeking work.
Thus, this sharp drop in the employment rate completely negates India‘s demographic dividend, since people
are not in the labour force.
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Violating MFN principle - The Bill is an obvious violation of the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) concept.
Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners.
If they grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) they have
to do the same for all other WTO members. (MFN principle)
Thus, if the President raises tariffs on a product of a particular country as is provided in the Bill, the US would
be discriminating against that country with respect to others.
Such a treatment will strike at the roots of the non-discriminatory MFN-based WTO system.
Uneven treatment - The Bill fails to distinguish between WTO consistent and WTO inconsistent non-tariff
barriers.
If enacted, this Bill could even consider WTO consistent non-tariff measures such as anti-dumping by nations
as high tariffs and will take it as an input to levy retaliatory tariffs on them.
Thus, the bill completely undermines the rights granted under the WTO agreement and provides a grossly
distorted idea of reciprocity.
Breaching commitments - The US President can breach the sovereign commitments given by the US in
bilaterally negotiated trade deals.
Thus, the overall concern with the Bill is that its intent and object are admittedly a complete disregard of the
WTO rulebook.
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An FPO can be a Producer Company, a Cooperative Society or any other legal form.
FPOs are basically the hybrids of cooperatives and private companies.
The participation, organisation and membership pattern of these companies are more or less similar to the
cooperatives.
But their day-to-day functioning and business models resemble those of the professionally-run private
companies.
The Companies Act was amended by incorporating Section-IX A in it to allow creation and registration of
FPOs under it.
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Kerala has become the first State to set up a price monitoring and research unit (PMRU).
It is to track violation of prices of essential drugs and medical devices under the Drugs Price Control Order
(DPCO).
The National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) had proposed such a system for the States and the
Union Territories five years ago.
The State Health Secretary would be the Chairman of the society and the Drugs Controller would be its
member secretary.
Its members include a State government representative, representatives of private pharmaceutical companies,
and those from consumer rights protection forum.
The society would also have an executive committee headed by the Drugs Controller.
The new watchdog will
1. offer technical help to the State Drug Controllers and the NPPA to monitor notified prices of
medicines
2. detect violation of the provisions of the DPCO
3. look at price compliance
4. collect test samples of medicines
5. collect and compile market-based data of scheduled as well as non-scheduled formulations.
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The scheme of National Centre of Sports Sciences and Research (NCSSR) aims to support high level research,
education and innovation with respect to high performance of elite athletes.
It was previously named as Indian Institute of Sports Sciences and Research (IISSR).
The scheme has two components:
1. Setting up of NCSSR and
2. Other is focused on creation of support to Sports Sciences Departments in 6 Universities and Sports
Medicine Departments in 6 Medical Institutions.
Some of the aims and objectives of NCSSR Scheme are as follows
1. Application of scientific principles to the promotion, maintenance and enhancement of sporting
performance.
2. Developing athletes to their maximum potential and to prolong their competitive sporting career.
3. Management and rehabilitation of sports injuries
7.20 e-AUSHADHI
The e-AUSHADHI portal was launched for online licensing of Ayurveda, Siddha, Unani and Homoeopathy
drugs and related matters.
This new e-portal is an acronym for Ayurveda, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy Automated Drug Help
Initiative.
It is intended for increased transparency, improved information management facility, improved data usability
and increased accountability.
It will provide real time information of the licensed manufactures and their products, cancelled and spurious
drugs, contact details of the concerned authority for specific grievances.
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GDKP creates a optimal capital investment measure for private companies in knowledge rather then in other
forms of capital investments.
GDKP is based on four basic pillars
1. Knowledge items (Ki)
2. Country‘s Knowledge Producing Matrix (CKPM)
3. Country‘s Knowledge User Matrix (CKUM)
4. Cost of Individual Learning, compared to the Cost of Living
7.23 Samadhan
The Union government has launched Samadhan portal to help workers and employers raise industrial
disputes online.
Samadhan stands for Software Application for Monitoring and Disposal, Handling of Industrial Disputes.
It is a dedicated web portal to bring all stakeholders - government, industry, and labor - involved in industrial
disputes on a single integrated platform.
The bodies which help in resolving the disputes will be able to get the requests and send updates to workers
and employers on this portal.
It has been launched on a pilot basis for workers belonging to five states – Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Karnataka,
Rajasthan, and Odisha.
Under the Industrial Disputes Act, 1947, an industrial dispute is defined as any dispute or difference between
the stakeholder related to employment, termination, and condition of work, among others.
The web portal will make the process of settling industrial disputes is simplified, standardized and
streamlined.
7.24 SWAYATT
SWAYATT is an initiative to promote Start-ups, Women and Youth Advantage Through e-transactions on
Government e Marketplace (GeM).
This will bring together the key stakeholders within the Indian entrepreneurial ecosystem to GeM the national
procurement portal.
GeM Start-up Runway was also launched which is an initiative of GeM in association with Start -up India.
It is to facilitate Start-ups registered with Start -up India.
It is to access the public procurement market and sell innovative products and services to government buyers.
Both these initiatives will reach out and empower the diverse groups in our country.
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HOPE - Healthcare Organizations‘ Platform for Entry-Level-Certification aims to promote quality at nascent
stages by enrolling a wide range of hospitals across the country including Healthcare Organizations (HCOs)
and Small Healthcare Organizations (SHCOs).
It tries to create a momentum for HCOs and SHCOs that want to avail benefits associated with Insurance
Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) and Ayushman Bharat by getting themselves NABH
certified.
The IRDAI has mandated hospitals to ensure a quality healthcare ecosystem through NABH Entry-Level
Certification Process.
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It also proposes to constitute an inter-ministerial body to institutionalize the mechanism for ensuring
sustainable development in mining.
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The inter-operable transport card would allow the holders to pay for their bus travel, toll taxes, parking
charges, retail shopping and even withdraw money.
It is a bank-issued card on debit or credit or pre-paid card product platform.
AFC System (gates, readers/validators, backend infrastructure etc.) is the core of any transit operator to
automate the fare collection process.
8. INFRASTRUCTURE
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In Jharkhand, the coal layer is extremely thick, where open-cast mining can be done.
But no other method would be economically viable in Meghalaya, where the coal seam is extremely thin.
Removal of rocks from the hilly terrain and putting up pillars inside the mine to prevent collapse would be
costlier.
So despite a ban, rat-hole mining remains the prevalent procedure for coal mining in Meghalaya.
Rat-hole mining is the locally developed technique and the most commonly used one.
It is not regulated by any law, and coal extraction has been made by unscrupulous elements in a most illegal
and unscientific manner.
Meghalaya‘s annual coal production of nearly 6 million tonnes is mostly said to have come through rat-hole
mining.
Ecology - Rat-hole mining in Meghalaya had caused the water in the Kopili river (flows through Meghalaya
and Assam) to turn acidic.
The entire roadsides in and around mining areas are used for piling of coal.
This is getting to be a major source of air, water and soil pollution.
Off road movement of trucks and other vehicles in the area causes further damage to the ecology of the area.
Risk to lives - Due to rat-hole mining, during the rainy season, water flood into the mining areas resulting in
death of many.
If water has seeped into the cave, the worker can enter only after the water is pumped out.
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Kaiga plant in Karnataka has recently created a world record for the longest uninterrupted operation for 941
days.
It breaks the earlier record of 940 days by the Heysham – 2 reactor of United Kingdom.
Kaiga is an indigenously built Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) run by domestic fuel (Uranium).
It began commercial operation in 2016.
While KaigaisaPHWR and Heysham-2 Unit-8 is an Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor (AGR).
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