Future of Adult Beverages Report May 2020
Future of Adult Beverages Report May 2020
Future of Adult Beverages Report May 2020
Playbook Launch
Introduction
2
Photo by Jeswin Thomas from Pexels
https://hbr.org/2002/08/inspiring-innovation
Extensive Brief
Scope
The scope of this project is extensive,
uncovering trends that apply to all elements of
the out of home* adult non-alcoholic cold
beverage market; a market this is estimated
to be worth €400bn** globally.
CO-CREATION
EXPERT
COUINCILS
INTERVIEWS
IE, UK
DESK REVIEW
INDUSTRY SURVEY
INTERVIEWS IE, UK, FR, DE, NL, US
4
What we did
5.Consumer
2.Expert Interviews Councils
We talked to a We conducted in
mix of local and total two workshops
global experts in (Dublin &
1. Desk Review the beverage 3. Industry Manchester) to hear 5.Future Survey
We reviewed an category to get We interviewed a consumers We surveyed
extensive array clarity and selection of small perspectives, almost 5,000
of third party alignment in and large understand potential consumers in 6
and information relation to beverage trends and co-create countries; IE, UK,
in the public current and producers to innovations for the FR, DE, NL, US.
domain related future trends in explore their future. Included reaction
to beverages. the market. perspective on to potential
This is the industry and “futures” and
considered and the key trends in attitudinal
reflected the future. insights from the
throughout the markets.
trend's analysis.
A Big Thank you to our Contributors
Beverage Trend Experts
8
The Challenge
With beverage volumes relatively flat overall in Europe and
showing limited growth globally, innovation is critical to
derive value from a market that is under pressure.
9
Photo by Mars Williams on Unsplash
60% of global respondents said
there are too many options out
there to choose from today. This
makes it extremely tough for new
products to cut through and
succeed.
(Opinions/Bord Bia, Global Beverages Study)
10
Photo by Mars Williams on Unsplash
Global Dynamics
It is hoped
(Opinions Bird that this document
Bia, Global Study) can
provide inspiration to unlock further future
value from the UK market into the future
and open up opportunities further afield.
Revenue in the Non-Alcoholic Drinks market amounts to US$37,607m in Total Market Volume Forecast*
2020. The market is expected to grow annually by 2.0% (CAGR 2020-
CAGR 2019 -
2023). Volume Forecast 2023 2023
(Statista, 2019)
Company retail market share by volume (%) Carbonated Soft Drinks 5,145.4 m litres 1.2%
(UK 2018) Bottled Water 3,882.2 m litres 2.1%
44.7 Juice 1,558.1 m litres - 0.6%
*Source: Mintel Market Sizes, UK 2019
33.3
The Cola- PepsiCo, A.G BARR Britic UK Groupe Nestlé S.A. Highland Lucozade Suntory Red Bull Bottled Water 2,927.5 m litres 1.8%
Cola Inc. PLC PLC Danone Spring Ribena Holding Ltd GmbH
Company S.A Group Suntory Ltd Juice 1,193.3 m litres - 0.9%
Carbonated Soft Drinks Bottled Water Juice Energy Drinks
Energy Drinks 680 m litres 1.6%
*Source: Mintel Market Sizes , UK 2019 *Source: Mintel Market Sizes , UK 2019 13
Getting Started
14
The Futures Structure
Inform
FORCES
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SECTION ONE
Forces
16
Planet Environmental
Sustainability
Keeping it
Plastics
Real
17
(Picture by ActionVance, Unsplash)
Environmental
sustainability
Almost 6 in 10 (58%)
of adults worldwide
said they are
concerned by the
impact of beverages
they choose on the
environment.
34 billion plastic
bottles that are
produced by the soft
drink industry enter
the ocean each year.
22
Photo by Jade Masri on Unsplash
Population growth
Society
In Trillions of Dollars
As income rise, consumers tend to
A report in $361
increase their spending on higher
December 2019 income elastic goods and
services.
from Credit Suisse
shows that global UK consumer spending on soft
$200 drinks is up, reaching ten billion
wealth has pounds in 2018. In 2011 it had
increased from exceeded eight billion for the first
time. However, the average
$200 trillion in consumption is declining. The
2010 to $361 average person drinks five litres
less per year in 2017 as compared
trillion in 2019. to 2012.
2010 2019
(Source: Credit Suisse 2020 and statista, 2020) 28
(Picture by Hugh Han, Unsplash)
Community & Belonging
Plant-based beverages
market is projected to grow at
approximately 8.50% CAGR
.
during the assessment period
(2018-2023)
Connectivity
Technology
Origin: US
37
Remember: Taste is Paramount
38
Photo by Nathan Hanna on Unsplash
The War on Sugar (and calories) Continues
Sugar remains under pressure globally and remains the biggest challenge
facing industry. With a consumer who is evidently unwilling to compromise 81% of
on taste, but striving to avoid sugar the industry has to respond creatively.
consumers in the
There are now 45 countries around the world that have implemented a
sugar tax including Ireland and the UK (Obesity Evidence Hub, 2020), so
US are trying to
this will continue to further accelerate consumer’s desire to reduce sugar stop or reduce
intake.
sugar intake
The anti-sugar sentiment is having a considerable impact too on juice (Statista 2020)
consumption.
For consumer this further fuels a desire for more NATURAL and
FAMILIAR formulations.
39
Photo by Sharon McCutcheon on Unsplash
“A tasty, nutritious “Sugar free sparkling water with added
beverage, that's indulgent, pure fruit juice”
but low in carbs”
(Consumer View)
Q8, When it comes to choosing beverages in general, to what extent do each of the following influence your choice? (n=4,567)
Influence by Beverage Chosen Last Occasion
(Base: All Respondents, n=4,257)
Iced Tea
Still bottled water
Sparkling bottled water
Non-alcoholic beer Diet Soft Drinks
Brand: trimino
Brand: Super Charged
Origin: USA
Origin: USA
Benefits: Refresh, Rejuvenate and
Benefits: The product contains
Hydrate. Protein infused water is
electrolytes and B vitamins to
made with whey protein isolate and
help your performance and to
includes essential amino acids
keep you hydrated.
required by the human body to
perform effectively.
Features: natural flavours,
ginseng root extract, green tea,
Features: 7g of protein, 28 calories
Vitamin B3, calcium.
per bottle , o sugar/ carbs/ fats/
gluten free, lactose free, 00% B3,
Source: Mintel GNPD Source:trimino B5, B6, B2
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Photo by Chase Kinney on Unsplash
#2 Immortalise: Make me healthier
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Photo by Chase Kinney on Unsplash
#3 Fix Me: Make me better
48
Photo by Magic Bowls on Unsplash
#3 Fix Me: Make me better
49
Photo by Magic Bowls on Unsplash
#4 Identity: Be a part of who I am
50
Photo by Farid Askerov on Unsplash
#4 Identity: Be a part of who I am
53
Photo by Levi Guzman on Unsplash
#6 Balance: Let me enjoy a guilt free tasty treat.
Benefits: This is a low calorie Benefits: Unique and delicious Benefits: Free from calories,
product made from fruit blend and taste from real fruit flavour and caffeine and sugar
tea extracts. sparkling water.
Features: High quality ingredients Features: No additives/
Features: Ingredients sourced from family farms around the US Preservatives, No calories,
from selected farms, antioxidants, caffeine free, sugar free,
tea extracts. Environmental friendly package.
56
Photo by Erwan Hesry on Unsplash
#7 Indulge: Give me comfort and pleasure
58
Photo by asoggetti on Unsplash
#8 Energise: Buzz me up
Brand: Coca Cola Energy Brand: Monster Energy Brand: Runa Natural
Espresso Energy
Origin: USA Origin: USA Origin: USA
Benefits: Energy with Coca Benefits: Three shots of Benefits: an all natural tea-
Cola taste. Caffeine from expresso blended with based energy drink made
derived sources. European milk and from Amazonian Guayusa
enhanced with Monster’s Tea. Original and Berry.
Features: Guarana energy blend. They are carbonated and
extracts, B vitamins, free provide consumers with
from taurine and Features: 150 mg caffeine a natural alternative while
sweeteners. per can providing twice the
antioxidants of green tea. 59
Source: Coca Cola
Photo by asoggetti on Unsplash Source: Monster Energy Source: RUNA
Sum Up on Needs
60
Photo by Alexis Fauvet on Unsplash
Flavours, Formulations
and Formats in Brief
61
(Irish) Forest & Forage
In the quest for authentic goodness and natural functionality there is a growing
interest in wild ingredients that can be foraged around us.
Irish botanicals can provide Berries are big at the moment, Find some ancient recipes and Showcase their origin from
medicinal qualities and wild berries are even more traditions. There are lots of “around here”… Elderflower
vitamins. White horehound, interesting…. Blackberries or Irish Druid herbal remedies for from Wicklow, nettle from
Plantain, Mullein…. Bilberries with their wonderful example. Donegal.
ancient history here.
Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on Unsplash
Photo by Jaël Vallée on Unsplash 62
Image by Valgerd Kossmann from Pixabay
Processes
There are processes too that are gathering momentum due to their more premium
edge…… Language is an ingredient too!
Extracting subtle flavours over Popularised from the world of With juices squeezed from the The language of refreshing
time for a more refined taste coffee, it is making its way into fruit; this brings you a premium sophistication with a delicate
experience…. teas, kombuchas and other taste experience. flavour.
areas.
Function Taste
64
PPhoto by Karoline Stk on Unsplash
Some Noteworthy Format Trends
While there are consumers who will always “go large” the future
trend is towards smaller formats.
“PET the time is nigh, 250ml can the time is now” Alex Bennett
More eco friendly and considered a more “delicate” option.
Shots (DE, UK, IRL, US) are growing with strong associations
around medicinal needs and in keeping with busy lives.
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Introduction to Trends
TRENDS
1.01 Nutri
These Expressions have Boost These are resonating with
mass market interest but the masses and are
6.01 Free From
they are relatively settled in buzzing right now. Well
6.05 Truly Ethical established trends that
terms of current “buzz” in 4.01 Simply Better
the market as they are 1.04 Immunise may be peaking in terms of
8.03 Water 2.0 3.01 NALA opportunity.
more established trends 4.03 Better made
7.03 Flavourful
7.01 New Horizons 2.02 Stress 1.05 Protection
6.04 Less Is More 1.03 Gut Health
8.01 Energy 2.0 These are exciting
Expressions here are of 3.02 Canned Café
2.01 Sleep expressions that are
relatively niche interest 5.01 Tailored Tastes 5.03 Personal Nutrition buzzing at the moment and
overall, but as trending 2.03 Beauty 4.02 Provenance
are resonating strongly
phenomena have the 1.02 Antioxidise 6.03 Herbal
1.06 Adaptogens Essences 7.02 CBD
with a niche within the
potential to break out 6.02 Ancient market; clear potential here
5.02 Home Tech Elixirs to break through to the
8.02 Medley Mashup masses.
3.03 Rewind
FUNCTIONAL FUNCTIONAL
Trends> HEALTH WELLNESS ADULTIFICATION PREMIUMISATION PERSONALISATION STRIPPED BACK EXPLORATION BLURRED LINES
Trend Exploration
Reading the Slides
There are three key slides supporting each of the trends as follows:
72
Trend Expressions
RELEVANCE
Key Forces: Think About…..
How you can add nutritional claims to The use of protective ingredients Is there a pre or probiotic dimension
your products…. Omega 3, Protein, berries, Vitamin A, Vitamin E, Holy you could consider?
Fibre, Vitamins, Magnesium and Basil, Medicinal mushrooms, Apple Cider Vinegar, Probiotics,
Minerals Carotenoid, Algae, Lutein, Prebiotics, Kombucha, Kefir
73
Photo by Darran Shen on Unsplash Green Tea
Trend Expressions
RELEVANCE
Think About…..
Key Forces: Immunity is trending; can you Antioxidants aren’t new, but for As natural super nutrients that
make the most of it? your beverages it may be a new cover a range of bases, are
Vegetables, Citrus, Elderberry, departure. Green Tea, Berries, these herbal additives
Turmeric, Ginger, Garlic, Carotenoids, Vitamin C, Zinc, something for you to think 75
Photo by Darran Shen on Unsplash
Almonds, Hibiscus, Aloe Juices, Smoothies, Water about (see also trend 6.03)
Trend Expressions
Non Ethical
Feel Guilty
Unhealthy Drinks
Misleading health claims
Gains Created
100% Natural
Good For You
Honest
Nutritional
Ethical
This is a natural and straightforward fruit juice that has a low carbon fruit
CONSUMER CREATIONS print. The sleek design and allergen-free product attracts young adults.
Visualised by graphic artist 77
© Opinions Market Research
Consumer Created Innovation
Pains Addressed
Unhealthy ingredients
Not getting enough vitamins
Use of plastic
Gains Created
Daily vitamins
Boosts immune system
Helps your appearance
Boosts confidence
Vita-mine is a natural remedy drink composed with vitamins and supplements that boosts
CONSUMER CREATIONS immune system and is used in daily shots. The way that consumers are consuming
vitamins and supplements today is changing. People are searching for a more holistic
Visualised by graphic artist approach when it comes to their health.
© Opinions Market Research 78
Consumer Created Innovation
Pains Addressed
Unhealthy drinks
Unsustainable packaging
Feel Guilty
Gains Created
Probiotics
Boost immune system
Small bottle
Natural ingredients
CONSUMER CREATIONS This type of beverage responds to the need of a daily boost to your immune system using
plant based ingredients. We can also see an interest for a more environmental friendly
Visualised by graphic artist packaging.
© Opinions Market Research 79
Trend Opportunity
1 Functionality:
1.01 Nutri Boost
Health MASS 1.04 Immunise
MASS
These trends sit firmly in the SETTLED BUZZING
“functional” needs area of 1.05 Protection
our need scaping tool and
1.03 Gut Health
their high consumer BREAK BREAK
1.02 Antioxidise
relevance pulls them to the
1.06 Adaptgens THROUGH
OUT?
top of our map with gut,
protection and immunity hot
spots for the future.
KEY CATEGORIES:
Enhanced Water, Juice 2.0, Kombucha, Kefir, Seltzers, Smoothies, Pressés & Speciality,
Some premium natural energy (see energy 2.0)
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Photo by Darran Shen on Unsplash
Consumer Created Innovation
Pains Addressed
Lack of functionality
Gains Created
CONSUMER CREATIONS The need for a quick fix after a night out or a potion that will make us younger, healthier
and prettier are the reasons why this idea was created. A natural supplement that boosts
Visualised by graphic artist your immune system using super ingredients (botanical, charcoal, collagen).
© Opinions Market Research 81
Trend Expressions
USA SLOVAKIA UK
This product is made with pressed Diva’s vitamin water is a non-carbonated
This cold pressed juice is made with
and non-alcoholic drink made with
Key Forces: honeydew juice, lemon juice, apples, cherries, blackcurrants,
natural blueberries and acai berry
pineapple juice, California poppy elderberries, raspberries, hemp,
cinnamon extract and magnesium used flavour, Vitamin C, B3,B5,B6,B9,B12,
extract, lavender extract, butterfly pea
to preserve the health of the nervous Niacin and Coenzyme Q10 that helps to
flower powder and probiotics to
system. produce collagen and elastin.
improve sleep quality.
Source: So good so you Source: PFANNER Source: Diva’s 83
Photo by Wesley Tingey on Unsplash
Trend Opportunity
2 Functionality:
Wellness MASS MASS
The wellness SETTLED BUZZING
connection with 2.02 Stress
Pains Addressed
Sugar
Bad packaging
Non-ethical
Gains Created
Feel good
Gut health
Relaxing
Restore body
CONSUMER CREATIONS A drink with relaxing properties that is beneficial not only for your body but also for your
soul. This type of drink is created from the need of real healthy beverages that are 100%
Visualised by graphic artist natural and have functional/nutritional benefits related to their ingredients (probiotics,
© Opinions Market Research cultures, etc) 85
Functionality Case: The Naked Collective
See www.thenakedcollective.com
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Trend Expressions
Bringing Adult sensibilities to 25% The percentage of UK RTD coffee continues to drive Nostalgia, retro and vintage
consumers cutting back on the category as the fastest packaging is becoming
the beverage space brings alcohol (Stylus) and global growing segment, growing 31% popular. “Vintage-inspired
us in some interesting in the last two years. (Mintel)
alcohol consumption is down packaging is being used to
Now 1 in 5 coffee launches are
directions and bringing the by 1.5% in 2020 (IWSR). This cold. This is a playground for convey the impression of
adult worlds of pubs and is tapping into a wider theme the coffee companies, with 20% age and prestige”.
of busy lives and a annual growth expected for the (Eastpac, 2019)
cafes to the beverage fixture heightened emphasis on next 5 years led by the US, This is aimed at restoking
is becoming more prevalent. staying “straight” to perform China and Japan. interest with an older
It also opens the possibility without missing out. audience and asserting
for a throwback to the past to BUZZ brand heritage.
appeal to the nostalgic in
people.
RELEVANCE
Think About…..
Key Forces: Alcolog versions of familiar Capturing the magic of the The reintroduction of glass
favourites including beer, wine café in a bottle or can; coffee bottles, old flavours, old-
and spirits, but also and tea, in all their forms and fashioned fonts and colour
accompaniments and mixers for “blurred line” mixes have a schemes
that true “night out” experience role (later) 87
Photo by Park Street on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
Australia India
Key Forces: Organic Cold Brew Coffee infused with PepsiCo India used a retro design as
Nitrogen. The product is described as a part of a limited edition campaign.
smooth and creamy texture with chocolate
and berries flavour. Made with organic coffee
beans and sugar free.
89
Source: Byron Beverages Source: Mintel GNPD
Photo by Park Street on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
3 Adultification
This space is about MASS MASS
identity and belonging SETTLED BUZZING
3.01 NALA
with choices
appropriate to their BREAK
3.02 Canned
BREAK
Café
adult world. With a OUT THROUGH
3.03 Rewind
focus on inclusion and
sociability they offer a
adult option to suit the
KEY CATEGORIES:
mood. Any alcohol type, Sodas, Sparking water, Cold Brew Tea and Coffees; these
trends are also amenable to blurred collaborations with other categories.
90
Photo by Park Street on Unsplash
Consumer Created Innovation
Pains Addressed
No variety
Image
Gains Created
The idea originated from the need to have more non-alcoholic alternatives available in the market.
CONSUMER CREATIONS Some of the participants in the group noted there is moments that they don’t feel like having an
Visualised by graphic artist alcoholic drink but they still want to have a night out with their friends. A natural drink that you can
enjoy on nights out, cinemas, pubs and events! 91
© Opinions Market Research
Trend Expressions
UK Italy UK
With Adult flavours and a more This sparkling limonata is made 100% plant-based quality nutrition to
Key Forces: mature sensibility, Nix and Kix with 100% Sicilian organic help customers to live happier and
does mainstream “better made” lemons, cane sugar and natural balanced lives. Cold pressed
well. Watermelon and Hibiscus, lemon flavour. natural fruit juice.
Blood Orange and Turmeric, with
a subtle kick of cayenne. Yum.
93
Source: Nix and Kix Source: Mintel GNPD Source: Press
Photo by lucas Favre on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
4 Premiumisation
MASS
4.01 Simply Better
MASS
For adult drinkers this is SETTLED BUZZING
4.03 Better made
a reflection of
themselves and their 4.02 Provenance
BREAK BREAK
identity allowing them to
OUT THROUGH
indulge in pleasurable
non-alcoholic
beverages that suit their
needs and match with KEY CATEGORIES:
Water, Juices, Premium Soft Drinks and Seltzers
their status.
Key Forces: Capture your thoughts here…..
94
Photo by lucas Favre on Unsplash
Hot Topic
Sustainability & Plastics
95
Sustinability
Beverages are at the coalface of the consumer drive for sustainability;
driven principally by the reliance on plastics, but also increasingly
responsible sourcing of natural ingredients. 6 in 10 consumers across
Ireland and the US are concerned by the impact of their beverages
choices on the environment.
rPET or recycled PET is the current lead solution for industry. However,
Europe is facing a shortage of supply (Plastics Today), which is
hindering its potential. This is being caused in part due to recovery
rates and also capacity in the system. There is simply not enough raw
material.
Note: There are additional packaging resources available via Bord Bia here
Novel Materials
100
Photo by Notpla
Trend Expressions
RELEVANCE
Think About…..
Key Forces: Drops to add to your product or Can you facilitate your Ways to create a system to
to water to give it a flavour drinkers to customise at deliver specific personalised
twist; this can have an ethical home and create their own nutritional/medicinal drink.
dimension too! and have a little fun? The difference here is
101
Photo by Ilya lix on Unsplash
functional.
Trend Expressions
5 Personalisation
This trend is in its infancy MASS MASS
and in relative terms is SETTLED BUZZING
niche, but the creation of
drinks “systems” represents
5.01 Tailored Tastes
an interesting space to BREAK BREAK
5.03 Personal Nutrition
explore for brand owners OUT THROUGH
and the ability to tailor to suit 5.02 Home Tech
generates experimentation
and engagement .
KEY CATEGORIES:
Water base but extension territory for cordial, sports, energy and functional
drinks.
103
Photo by Ilya lix on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
6 Stripped Back 6.01 Free From 6.02 Ancient Elixirs 6.03 Herbal Essences
The consumer desire for purity According to Mintel “people Half of supplement users now
This is all about in a world where there is a are seeking the safety of take a herbal/botanical
heightened sensitivity to health
simplicity and and a common mistrust of
products that are supplement. (CRN 2019)
Nearly one-third (31%) of
producers, the drive for “clean
recognizable rather than
transparency; taken as labelling” is pervasive. No revolutionary,” and that adults now consider herbal
flavours highly appealing, up
a sign of quality and artificial ingredients is the manufacturers should look 5% over the past two years.
panacea, and ideally no sugar to “ancient recipes, (Technomic 2019)
authenticity this is a either! But there are also practices and traditions” as Our experts are excited by the
opportunities in Vegan claims,
trend we see in all non GMO etc.
a source of innovation. potential that herbs have to
offer in the future.
areas of food and drink. BUZZ
Nothing to hide; as
things should be.
RELEVANCE
Think About…..
Key Forces: How can you strip back your Are there ancient recipes or Is there a herbal twist that
product to minimise additives ingredients that could credibly fit you can add to bring a
and make the label legible for with your product to bring natural edge or functional
consumers? authenticity and intrigue? benefit? 104
Photo by Louis Hansel @shotsoflouis on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
6 Stripped Back 6.01 Free From 6.02 Ancient Elixirs 6.03 Herbal Essences
Cappri Humble Warrior Firefly
Poland UK UK
This product is gluten free, no sugar This is a botanical sparkling drink Made with still water, fruit juice and
Key Forces: added, low fat, no additives or made with turmeric, Indian herbal essences such as thyme,
preservatives and is made with 100% gooseberry, black pepper, ginger, kola nut, elderflower and rosemary.
watermelon juice. mango and mandarin. It’s low This product can be used on its
calorie with no sugar added. own or as a mixer.
Source: Firefly
105
Source: Mintel GNPD Source: Humble Warrior
Photo by Louis Hansel @shotsoflouis on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
Pains Addressed
Misleading products
Design
Unsustainable packaging
Gains Created
Not complicated
Attractive packaging
Good for you
Simple recipe
Honest
CONSUMER CREATIONS A simple, transparent fruit juice made from 4 ingredients (water, fruits, vegetables & flowers).
Visualised by graphic artist Consumers today want to know exactly what ingredients are going into their products. Clean
labels with high ethical values are more important than ever. 107
© Opinions Market Research
Consumer Created Innovation
Pains Addressed
Guilt free
Non ethical
Unsustainable packaging
Gains Created
Sustainable
Ethical
Biodegradable packaging
CONSUMER CREATIONS This is a punch-based beverage with biodegradable packaging and comes with seeds to grow.
Consumers are becoming more environmentally aware and want eco-friendly packaging. They
Visualised by graphic artist want packaging to be designed in such a way that it can be reused, recycled, or composted.
© Opinions Market Research 108
Trend Expressions
6 Stripped Back
The stripped back MASS
6.01 Free From MASS
6.05 Truly Ethical
109
Photo by Louis Hansel @shotsoflouis on Unsplash
Consumer Created Innovation
Pains Addressed
Guilt Free
Unhealthy Ingredients
Gains Created
Nutritional
Full of vitamins
No regrets
Good for you
CONSUMER CREATIONS This idea was created from mapping traditional drinks perception in the market as some drinks come
across as healthy options but their components are not as healthy as we think. Using fruit and
Visualised by graphic artist vegetables in seasons and simple recipes will earn those healthy qualities that consumers are looking
© Opinions Market Research 110
to find in their drinks.
Trend Expressions
Thailand UK Japan
Key Forces: This product is made with Alternative to caffeine This product is a limited edition
blueberry and lime based drinks offering launched this year. It has orange
flavours. consumers relaxation and flavour.
enjoyment.
Source: Mintel GNPD Source: Green Monkey CBD Source: Mintel GNPD 112
Photo by Mathieu CHIRICO on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
7 Exploration
MASS MASS
SETTLED
7.03 Flavourful BUZZING
7.01 New Horizons
This variety seeking brings a
spirit of adventure that
allows for indulgence and BREAK BREAK
expression. For a certain OUT THROUGH
7.02 CBD
cohort there is an openness
to experimentation who often
marks the path for others to
follow and this zone is for
KEY CATEGORIES:
them. Flavoured Waters, Smoothies and flavoured CSDs, but all categories can extend some
creative and experimental flair.
Key Forces: Capture your thoughts here…..
113
Photo by Mathieu CHIRICO on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
8. Blurred Lines 8.01 Energy 2.0 8.02 Medley Mash-Ups 8.03 Water 2.0
From Pepsi White yoghurt Cola
64% of global consumers said More than 7 in 10 Americans
Beverage categories are they often use drinks for energy
and Bilk containing both Beer
(72%) say bottled water (still
and Milk to Coca-Cola's Salad
not so neatly defined to get them through the day.
Water; the drinkable Lettuce
and/or sparkling) is among their
anymore. With restless (Opinions Global Survey) most preferred non-alcoholic
Leaves from Japan….. There
But energy often now has a beverages. (IBWA, 2019)
consumers, evolving are lots of weird and wonderful
twist of added value; vitamins But it is under attack from
combinations going on.
demands and global or added natural energy. This refillables, fonts and the plastics
Consumers can get involved
is a big topic on its own, but debate. The “pimping” of water
influences, lines too, like Fanta’s flavour lab in
Monster and Red Bull are is adding value and sustaining
Australia which invited fans to
between categories that embracing the need to
“mix, name and submit” their
its growth.
constantly reinvent and
are blurring with the maintain relevance.
favourite combinations.
injection of “magic” by BUZZ
The priority for water brands has to be on adding value and it has been doing so by building in
functionality beyond hydration, with an ever more exotic array of functional enhancements to maximise value
from consumers…
For Expectant Mums add For exercise add For functional For energy add For relaxation
Folic acid and vitamins protein & caffeine recovery add oxygen caffeine & vitamins add hemp
That’s not to mention the proliferation of intriguing flavoured waters, spritzers and infusions that are making
their way onto the market.
115
Trend Expressions
8 Blurred Lines 8.01 Energy 2.0 8.02 Medley Mix 8.03 Water 2.0
USA UK Indonesia
The product is made with caffeine, This drink from Pepsi features the Cola This Chlorophyll water helps the
maltodextrin, inositol, guarana, B classic with a twist of coffee for a burst metabolism by improving the
Key Forces: vitamins, ginseng. of caffeinated, cold filtered goodness. oxygen circulation in the body.
The product contains 0 calories,
Source: Mintel GNPD Source: Pepsico
80 mg of caffeine and 30 mg L-
Theanine to help us to stay
(See next Page too). focused.
Source: Acaii Tea
Photo by Christopher Johnson on Unsplash
Trend Expressions
USA USA
Source: Tenzing Source: Hiball 117
Photo by Christopher Johnson on Unsplash
Consumer Created Innovation
Pains Addressed
Traditional unhealthy
energy drinks
Work appropriate
Sugar
Gains Created
Natural ingredients
Slow release energy
Caffeine alternative
Taste
Enhance performance
Alternative and natural sources are some of the reasons why this idea was created.
CONSUMER CREATIONS Consumers are expecting to see more natural and healthy sources to replace ingredients
such as caffeine without compromising the pick me up effect. This type of drink will also
Visualised by graphic artist respond to the need to find brands that are more adult branded and can be consumed at work.
© Opinions Market Research 118
Trend Expressions
8 Blurred Lines
MASS MASS
With the drive for health SETTLED BUZZING
and functionality, 8.03 Water 2.0
119
Photo by Christopher Johnson on Unsplash
Trends Overview
Mapping
120
TRENDS & EXPRESSIONS
W rapping Up
1.01 Nutri
These Expressions have Boost These are resonating with
mass market interest but the masses and are
6.01 Free From
they are relatively settled in buzzing right now. Well
6.05 Truly Ethical established trends that
terms of current “buzz” in 4.01 Simply Better
the market as they are 1.04 Immunise may be peaking in terms of
8.03 Water 2.0 3.01 NALA opportunity.
more established trends 4.03 Better made
7.03 Flavourful
7.01 New Horizons 2.02 Stress 1.05 Protection
6.04 Less Is More 1.03 Gut Health
8.01 Energy 2.0 These are exciting
Expressions here are of 3.02 Canned Café
2.01 Sleep expressions that are
relatively niche interest 5.01 Tailored Tastes 5.03 Personal Nutrition buzzing at the moment and
overall, but as trending 2.03 Beauty 4.02 Provenance
are resonating strongly
phenomena have the 1.02 Antioxidise 6.03 Herbal
Essences 7.02 CBD
with a niche within the
1.06 Adaptadgens
potential to break out 6.02 Ancient market; clear potential here
5.02 Home Tech Elixirs to break through to the
8.02 Medley Mashup masses.
3.03 Rewind
FUNCTIONAL FUNCTIONAL
Trends> HEALTH WELLNESS ADULTIFICATION PREMIUMISATION PERSONALISATION STRIPPED BACK EXPLORATION BLURRED LINES
SECTION FOUR
122
Introducing the “Futures”
• Following a review of the emerging consumer insights, in collaboration with the
Bord Bia team, we developed a series of illustrative “futures” in order to
explore some of the more interesting emerging themes.
• A total of n=7 alternative futures were explored across 6 countries: IE, UK, DE,
FR, NL & US among a total of n=4,260 beverage drinkers aged 18-49.
124
Sum Up on Futures
There is clear gravitational pull toward more natural and sustainable
propositions in line with the market Forces identified earlier. However, it is worth
noting that these features are fast-becoming “expected” by consumers.
Both Non-Alc Tipples and Fermented For More are expected to make it to the big
time, despite not being a strong draw for the respondents themselves which
indicates that their functional pulling power will see them win despite a reluctant
base of active supporters.
The remaining Medical Marvels and CBD are likely to remain niche, but they are
aligned with identified needs and will find a dedicated following in the
marketplace.
All of these futures will play a role and will be a growing part of the future of
beverages. 125
A brief look at the futures
126
Futures Mapping
+
Responsible CONNECTION
Sourcing &
Production
Future Purchase Potential
Higher
MOMENTUM
Nature's
Energy Natural
Alcohol
Tipples
H2O 2.0
Fermented For More
Medical Marvels
Lower
- MASS APPEAL +
Will become a Reality 127
KEY
RSP
BELIEF CONNECTION DESIRE APPLICATION
Will become a Reality Future Popularity Future Purchase Potential Solves a Problem Responsible Sourcing
& Production
Strongest
NE
RSP
Nature’s Energy
RSP
RSP
NAT
RSP NE NAT
NAT
Non Alcoholic Tipples
FFM NE
CBD FFM NE
FFM
NE
NAT Fermented for More
H2o H2o NAT
FFM
CBD 2 2 H2o
MM MM
2
H2o H2O 2.0
FFM 2 CBD
MM
MM
MM H2o
Medical Marvels
2
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
129
KEY
RSP
BELIEF CONNECTION DESIRE APPLICATION
Will become a Reality Future Popularity Future Purchase Potential Solves a Problem Responsible Sourcing
& Production
Strongest
NE
RSP
Nature’s Energy
RSP
RSP
NAT
RSP NE NAT
NAT
Non Alcoholic Tipples
FFM NE
CBD FFM NE
FFM
NE
NAT Fermented for More
H2o H2o NAT
FFM
CBD 2 2 H2o
MM MM
2
H2o H2O 2.0
FFM 2 CBD
MM
MM
MM H2o
Medical Marvels
2
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
Non Alcoholic Tipples
Backing
Expectation Mass Appeal Connection Solution This Future
IT WILL HAPPEN MAINSTREAM REGULAR CHOICE SOLVES PROBLEM
67 31 30 74
€7.41
# 1/7 # 2/7 # 3/7 # 3/7 Of 20
For ‘Non Alc. Tipples’ it is clear that it has momentum and it solves an
issue for consumers, but it is not a choice for everyone. #1
NEEDS FIT… RESONATES WITH… IT SHOWS UP HERE… AND…
• Female Oriented Mapping The Future
BELONGING • Under 35 year old Overall
• Workers Preference
• City / urban area
BALANCE • Non-alcoholic beer tends to
be most often consumed
1/7
FORCES… 39% A top Tier
23% 24% Performer
overall with
high
31% 29% 32% Non Alc. Tipples has strong expectations for
mass appeal with moderate growth
momentum
132
KEY
RSP
BELIEF CONNECTION DESIRE APPLICATION
Will become a Reality Future Popularity Future Purchase Potential Solves a Problem Responsible Sourcing
& Production
Strongest
NE
RSP
Nature’s Energy
RSP
RSP
NAT
RSP NE NAT
NAT
Non Alcoholic Tipples
FFM NE
CBD FFM NE
FFM
NE
NAT Fermented for More
H2o H2o NAT
FFM
CBD 2 2 H2o
MM MM
2
H2o H2O 2.0
FFM 2 CBD
MM
MM
MM H2o
Medical Marvels
2
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
Responsible Sourcing & Production
Backing
Expectation Mass Appeal Connection Solution This Future
IT WILL HAPPEN MAINSTREAM REGULAR CHOICE SOLVES PROBLEM
65 34 39 84
€7.21
# 2/7 # 1/7 # 1/7 # 1/7 Of 20
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
Nature’s Energy
Backing
Expectation Mass Appeal Connection Solution This Future
IT WILL HAPPEN MAINSTREAM REGULAR CHOICE SOLVES PROBLEM
64 30 31 76
€6.71
# 3/7 # 4/7 # 2/7 # 2/7 Of 20
For ‘Nature’s Energy’ it’s clearly seen to solve a problem and will become a
regular choice in the future. #4
NEEDS FIT… RESONATES WITH… IT SHOWS UP HERE… AND…
• Male Oriented
Mapping The Future
BALANCE • Lower Social Grade
• 30-34 year old
• Young Families
• City / urban area
ENERGISE • Tends to drink Energy Drinks
Overall
most often Preference
FORCES…
23%
36%
29%
4/7
29% 33% 34% Nature’s Energy have strong mass
appeal and moderate momentum.
138
KEY
RSP
BELIEF CONNECTION DESIRE APPLICATION
Will become a Reality Future Popularity Future Purchase Potential Solves a Problem Responsible Sourcing
& Production
Strongest
NE
RSP
Nature’s Energy
RSP
RSP
NAT
RSP NE NAT
NAT
Non Alcoholic Tipples
FFM NE
CBD FFM NE
FFM
NE
NAT Fermented for More
H2o H2o NAT
FFM
CBD 2 2 H2o
MM MM
2
H2o H2O 2.0
FFM 2 CBD
MM
MM
MM H2o
Medical Marvels
2
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
Fermented for More
Backing
Expectation Mass Appeal Connection Solution This Future
IT WILL HAPPEN MAINSTREAM REGULAR CHOICE SOLVES PROBLEM
64 27 27 73
€6.65
# 3/7 # 5/7 # 5/7 #4 /7 Of 20
‘Fermented For More’ is not for the mainstream public but holds strong
expectations. #5
NEEDS FIT… RESONATES WITH… IT SHOWS UP HERE… AND…
• Female Oriented Mapping The Future
IMMORTALISE • 35-39 year old
• City / urban area
• Tends to drink Kombucha or
Kefir most often
ENHANCE Overall
• Married couples & parents
Preference
FORCES… 34%
18% 28% 5/7
32% 26% 24% ‘Fermented for More’ does not
have strong momentum at
present.
141
KEY
RSP
BELIEF CONNECTION DESIRE APPLICATION
Will become a Reality Future Popularity Future Purchase Potential Solves a Problem Responsible Sourcing
& Production
Strongest
NE
RSP
Nature’s Energy
RSP
RSP
NAT
RSP NE NAT
NAT
Non Alcoholic Tipples
FFM NE
CBD FFM NE
FFM
NE
NAT Fermented for More
H2o H2o NAT
FFM
CBD 2 2 H2o
MM MM
2
H2o H2O 2.0
FFM 2 CBD
MM
MM
MM H2o
Medical Marvels
2
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
H20 2.0
Backing
Expectation Mass Appeal Connection Solution This Future
IT WILL HAPPEN MAINSTREAM REGULAR CHOICE SOLVES PROBLEM
60 27 30 66
€6.21
# 5/7 # 5/7 # 3/7 # 7/7 Of 20
‘H20 2.0’ scores lowest in problem solving when compared to the rest of the
concepts but may become a regular choice. #6
NEEDS FIT… RESONATES WITH… IT SHOWS UP HERE… AND…
Mapping The Future
IMMORTALISE • Female Oriented
• Higher Social Grade
• 25-29 year old
ENHANCE • Working full-time Overall
Preference
FORCES…
28%
36%
23%
6/7
32% 33% 28% H20 2.0 has some momentum at present
but struggles when compared to the rest
of the concepts.
144
KEY
RSP
BELIEF CONNECTION DESIRE APPLICATION
Will become a Reality Future Popularity Future Purchase Potential Solves a Problem Responsible Sourcing
& Production
Strongest
NE
RSP
Nature’s Energy
RSP
RSP
NAT
RSP NE NAT
NAT
Non Alcoholic Tipples
FFM NE
CBD FFM NE
FFM
NE
NAT Fermented for More
H2o H2o NAT
FFM
CBD 2 2 H2o
MM MM
2
H2o H2O 2.0
FFM 2 CBD
MM
MM
MM H2o
Medical Marvels
2
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
CBD Has Come
Backing
Expectation Mass Appeal Connection Solution This Future
IT WILL HAPPEN MAINSTREAM REGULAR CHOICE SOLVES PROBLEM
59 31 23 69
€6.99
# 6/7 # 2/7 # 7/7 # 6/7 Of 20
The public perception for ‘CBD Has Come’ is that while it solves a problem and is
expected to happen, it isn’t expected to become a regular choice. #3
NEEDS FIT… RESONATES WITH… IT SHOWS UP HERE… AND…
• 18-24 year olds Mapping The Future
INDULGE • Lower Social Grade
• City / urban area
• Non-working
ENHANCE • Tends to drink Kombucha Overall
or Kefir most often Preference
FORCES…
14%
31%
22%
3/7
CBD Has Come has low
21% 24% 26%
momentum globally and moderate
mass appeal.
147
KEY
RSP
BELIEF CONNECTION DESIRE APPLICATION
Will become a Reality Future Popularity Future Purchase Potential Solves a Problem Responsible Sourcing
& Production
Strongest
NE
RSP
Nature’s Energy
RSP
RSP
NAT
RSP NE NAT
NAT
Non Alcoholic Tipples
FFM NE
CBD FFM NE
FFM
NE
NAT Fermented for More
H2o H2o NAT
FFM
CBD 2 2 H2o
MM MM
2
H2o H2O 2.0
FFM 2 CBD
MM
MM
MM H2o
Medical Marvels
2
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
Medical Marvels
Backing
Expectation Mass Appeal Connection Solution This Future
IT WILL HAPPEN MAINSTREAM REGULAR CHOICE SOLVES PROBLEM
51 24 24 72
€5.47
# 7/7 # 7/7 # 6/7 # 5/7 Of 20
While ‘Medical Marvels’ scores poorest in almost all fields, there is still strong
public perception it may solve a problem in society. #7
NEEDS FIT… RESONATES WITH… IT SHOWS UP HERE… AND…
• Female Oriented Mapping The Future
FIX • 30-34 year old
• City / urban area
• Tend to drink drinks with
IMMORTALISE specific Medicinal benefits Overall
most often Preference
FORCES…
15%
29%
26% 7/7
24% ‘Medical Marvels’ has low mass
26% 25%
appeal and low momentum.
Futures Mapping
+
Responsible CONNECTION
Sourcing &
Production
Future Purchase Potential
Higher
MOMENTUM
Nature's
Energy Natural
Alcohol
Tipples
H2O 2.0
Fermented For More
Medical Marvels
Lower
- MASS APPEAL +
Will become a Reality 150
KEY
RSP
BELIEF CONNECTION DESIRE APPLICATION
Will become a Reality Future Popularity Future Purchase Potential Solves a Problem Responsible Sourcing
& Production
Strongest
NE
RSP
Nature’s Energy
RSP
RSP
NAT
RSP NE NAT
NAT
Non Alcoholic Tipples
FFM NE
CBD FFM NE
FFM
NE
NAT Fermented for More
H2o H2o NAT
FFM
CBD 2 2 H2o
MM MM
2
H2o H2O 2.0
FFM 2 CBD
MM
MM
MM H2o
Medical Marvels
2
CBD
CBD
CBD has come
Weakest
SECTION FIVE
152
Futures-led
Innovation Toolkit
This toolkit is provided to support you in
working through this Futures Playbook and
to facilitate the capturing of insight and
inspiration from this materials.
153
Opinions Define and Refine Model
The Define and Refine system outlined below will help you to navigate the Beverage
Futures and explore potential opportunities for your business. We have developed this
toolkit to help structure your thinking as you work through the process and to ensure that
you get the most out of this playbook.
154
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DEFINE The Challenge
In order to develop elegant and relevant solutions to any problem we need to first define what is being asked of us and what
we are asking of ourselves. This focus clarity of purpose will help to keep us on track as we progress to the development of
solution.
Think about the challenge presented to us by a customer, a problem we wish to resolve for consumers or an internal business
challenge capture it.
Then turn this into a provocative question to keep you on track, focus your efforts and to get you in problem solving mode.
Consider our Forces model and Now shortlist the trends that align Are there particular expressions For consumer oriented
other macro influences in terms of most with the challenge you face; of these trend(s) that are challenges will help to connect wit
their relevance to the challenge; the ones that offer potential especially important or that offer the underlying needs you wish to
the ones that need to be solutions or inspiration on how to clues on the direction you might tap into in pursuit of a solution.
considered as you move forward progress. take?
FOCUS ON….
156
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DEFINE The Brief
With your challenge clarified and the most relevant market dynamics and trends identified you can develop you innovation
brief to ensure you are progressing in the right direction and that the team are aligned on the ambition and are appraised of
any important context.
Capture critical market, sector and consumer dynamics Include any high level requirements that must be delivered
that need to be considered. against and inspiration from other businesses
Empathy Guidance
Challenge
INSIGHT Insert their “need” or motivation Insert desired outcome Insert impediment to this currently
Important!
<<TARGET>> WANTS ___________________ SO THAT THEY __________________ BUT ________________________
157
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DESIGN Options
Quick Fire ideation is a great way of getting lots of embryonic solutions to your challenge from which to develop a final
solution….. This is about quantity of ideas as opposed to fully worked solutions.
Try to keep initial ideas to short 10 word descriptions and get your team working on them with you.
Stretch
We can
do it
Next Wave
Do
Now
It can People
make € want it
Yes this is a blank page; get a flipchart, some Produce a large Venn diagram like the one Let’s go further now and choose the one(s) to
post-its and start thinking… above to start to shortlist your ideas…. The ones bring forward. Which ones feel right and
Try to ideate within thematic areas. For that seem financially viable, technically feasible provoke passion? Which should we do now?
158
example wellness or premiumisation and aligned to consumer needs & trends Which should be in the pipeline?
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DEFINE The Solution(s)
You may have one or more ideas to progress. This is where you get to bring them to life and think a little more about them. This stage
works best in collaboration with others where you can pool your ideas and stress-test assumptions.
Format
Formulation
Why is it great? What problem is it solving?
(15 Words or Less)
Flavours
Functionality
RIVALS
Why can we do it better? (10 Words or Less)
159
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DEVELOP The Plan
Of course there will be lots of detailed planning required to get your product on shelf, but here are a few areas to think
about at a high level early in the process; if you hit a blocker step back and refine!
Go to Market Plan
Facilities (Line availability / Co packer partners) Partners? (Specific Retail/Wholesale/Food Service) Message Focus (What we will be famous for)
16
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DEFINE Success
There are lots of potential ambitions for your new product or innovation from protecting listings, reigniting interest in an existing product, responding to a PL brief or
creating the next big thing. Capture your ambition here and think about how you can evaluate this as you move forward. These are examples with space for your own
Key Indicators
Commercial Physical Availability Mental Availability Others
What are the commercial Targets relating to making your These are measures of overall These are measures of overall
milestones and requirements for product physically accessible to the brand/product salience, familiarity brand/product salience, familiarity
this project market and being selected and appeal. and appeal.
Hindrances Helpers
162
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Thank You
163