31-Mar-18 31-Mar-19 31-Mar-20 31-Mar-21 31-Mar-22 31-Mar-23

Assumptions
Actual Forecast

Scenerio Analysis Back to Index

7 8
Tiles Revenue Growth (%)
Best Case 12% 12%
On-Going case 8% 8%
Worst Case 0% 0%

Avg. Revenue (in Cr. per MSM)

Best Case 40.0 40.0
On-Going case 34.5 33.9
Worst Case 30.0 30.0

SanitaryWare & Faucets Revenue Growth (%)

Best Case 15% 15%
On-Going case 12% 12%
Worst Case 0% 0%

Cost Of Materials Consumed (%)

Best Case 20% 20%
On-Going case 25% 25%
Worst Case 30% 30%

Purchase of Stock in Trade (%)

Best Case 10% 10%
On-Going case 17% 18%
Worst Case 30% 30%

Select an option:
On-Going case
Tiles Volume 8% 8%
Avg. Revenue (in Cr. per MSM) 34.5 33.9
SanitaryWare & Faucets Revenue Growth (%) 12% 12%
Cost Of Materials Consumed 25% 25%
Purchase of Stock in Trade 17% 18%

Income Statement
Assumptions related to Revenue:
Tiles Volume growth 8.0% 8.0%
Faucets & Sanitaryware growth rate 12.0% 12.0%
Current Tax rate 35.5% 35.9% 30.0% 26.2% 26.2% 26.2%
Cost Of Materials Consumed 26.2% 26.8% 26.2% 21.2% 25.1% 24.8%
Purchases Of Stock-In-Trade 12.3% 13.2% 16.0% 18.8% 17.4% 18.1%
Employee Benefits Expense 11.4% 11.6% 12.6% 11.6% 11.0% 10.0%
Depreciation And Amortisation Ex 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11%
Other Expenses 31.4% 34.1% 33.0% 25.0% 28.4% 26.6%
Total Expense 89.1% 94.1% 97.3% 85.9% 92.0% 90.3%

Revenue Schedule:
Segments:
Tiles 2,641.4 2,754.5 2,604.9 2,532.8 2,808.0 2,984.2
 Others 141.2 201.7 203.2 248.2 277.9 311.3
2,782.6 2,956.2 2,808.0 2,780.9 3,086.0 3,295.5
Growth rate (%) NA 6.2% -5.0% -1.0% 11.0% 6.8%

Revnue from Tiles

CT 34.7 38.3 36.7 34.5 36.6 39.6
VT 37.3 42.0 41.4 40.9 44.8 48.4
Total Volume 72.0 80.3 78.1 75.4 81.4 87.9
Revenue generated 2,641.4 2,754.5 2,604.9 2,532.8 2,808.0 2,984.2
Avg. Revenue (in Cr. per MSM) 36.7 34.3 33.4 33.6 34.5 33.9

Other Revenue:
Sanitaryware/Faucets 139.1 184.8 174.2 209.0 234.1 262.2
Change(%) NA 33% -6% 20% 12% 12%
Plywood - 16.8 28.9 39.2 43.8 49.1
Change(%) NA NA 72% 35% 12% 12%
Total Revenue 201.7 203.2 248.2 277.9 311.3

Other Comprehensive Income (Oci)

Items That Will Not Be Reclassified To Statement Of Profit And Loss
- Remeasurement Of Defined Benef (0.2) 0.3 (1.0) 0.2 0.2 0.2
- Fair Valuation Of Investment In (0.5) 0.1 0.1 0.1
Income-Tax Relating To Items Tha 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0)
Total Other Comprehensive Inco (0.6) 0.2 (0.8) 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total Comprehensive Income For (0.6) 0.6 (0.4) 0.5 0.5 0.5

Profit For The Year Attributable To:

(a) Owners Of The Company 235.0 226.6 255.3 308.1
(b) Non-Controlling Interest (6.4) 2.2 (1.8) 0.9 0.9 0.9
Other Comprehensive Income For The Year Attributable To:
(a) Owners Of The Company (0.5) 0.2 (0.7) 0.2 0.2 0.2
(b) Non-Controlling Interest (0.1) 0.1 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Comprehensive Income For The Year Attributable To:
(a) Owners Of The Company 234.4 226.7 254.6 308.3
(b) Non-Controlling Interest (6.4) 2.2 (1.8) 0.9 0.9 0.9

Finance Cost (Interest on borrowings + Lease liabilities)

Interest On Borrowings 22.9 14.8 12.7 7.1 9.2 7.8
Cummulative Interest rate (%) 17% 16% 11% 7% 9% 8%
Interest on Lease Liabilities 4.6 3.0 3.0 3.0
Other borrowing cost 1.17 0.8 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.6
Total finance cost 24.1 15.6 19.5 10.7 12.9 11.5

Interest on Lease liabilities

Beginning of period 4.6 3.0 3.0
Addition/ (Substraction) (1.6) - -
End of period 4.6 3.0 3.0 3.0

COGS 1,769.8 1,872.4 1,774.5 1,748.0 1,891.3 2,037.3

Changes In Inventories Of Finished Goods, Stock-In-Trade And Work-Inprogress

Opening Inventory 264.0 268.5 296.7 381.1 247.8 298.5
 Closing Inventory 268.5 296.7 381.1 247.8 298.5 306.0
Net Change (12.9) (28.2) (84.4) 133.3 (50.7) (7.5)

Interest Income 3.9 12.9 18.5 17.4 18.0 17.7

Interest Income (% of other Income) 36% 72% 77% 82% 79% 80%

Balance Sheet
ASSETS
Non-current assets:
Capital work-in-progress 17.6 93.4 25.7 14.9 14.9 14.9
Goodwill 11.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
Right-of use assets 42.0 28.8 35.4 32.1
Other intangible assets 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Loans 10.5 11.8 20.0 21.3 21.3 21.3
Investments 0.3 0.3 0.3 - 0.3 0.2
Other financial assets 4.0 4.8 0.8 - 2.4 2.0
Non-current tax assets (net) 3.3 3.5 5.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Deferred tax assets (net) 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3
Other non-current assets 8.0 9.0 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Current assets:
Investments 9.8 5.0 7.4 6.2
Bank balances Other than above 2.7 230.3 209.1 417.9 417.9 417.9
Loans 6.6 5.0 3.9 12.9 12.9 12.9
Other financial assets 4.7 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.1
Other current assets 28.5 28.8 35.2 23.4 23.4 23.4

Equity
Equity share capital 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9
Non- controlling interests 66.1 65.9 63.7 64.6 64.6 64.6

Liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Deferred tax liabilities (net) 109.9 107.3 73.1 68.7 68.7 68.7
Other non-current liabilities 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5
Provisions 5.2 4.5 23.8 16.6 16.6 16.6
Lease Liabilities 23.4 15.4 15.4 15.4

Current liabilities
Lease Liabilities 14.5 11.8 11.8 11.8
Other financial liabilities 137.7 137.8 110.5 92.7 119.7 115.2
Other current liabilities 55.4 56.1 51.9 68.1 57.9 58.5
Provisions 12.7 15.5 5.0 6.2 6.2 6.2
Current tax liabilities (net) 6.9 4.6 0.0 7.8 7.8 7.8

Working Schedule
Property, Plant & Equipment And Intangible Assets
Beginning of period 1,152.4 1,164.2
Plus: Capital expenditures 130.6 143.1
Less: Depreciation and Amortization (118.8) (126.6)
End of period 1,131.1 1,067.1 1,142.5 1,152.4 1,164.2 1,180.7
 Capex (enter as +) 152.7 123.5 124.0 112.7 130.6 143.1
Capital expenditures as % of reve 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Depreciation and Amortization 88.5 89.1 108.1 106.7 118.8 126.6
Depreciation and Amortization as a 58% 72% 96% 86% 91% 89%

Working Capital Schedule:

Accounts receivable
Beginning of period 450.7 475.1 396.7 431.7 457.2
Increases / (decreases) 24.4 (78.4) 35.0 25.5 42.3
End of period 450.7 475.1 396.7 431.7 457.2 499.5

AR as % of sales 16% 16% 14% 15% 15% 15%

Days sales outstanding (DSO) 58.9 58.3 51.1 56.2 53.7 55.0

Inventory
Beginning of period 378.5 405.8 512.7 373.1 475.1
Increases / (decreases) 27.3 106.9 (139.6) 102.0 (1.8)
End of period 378.5 405.8 512.7 373.1 475.1 473.3

Inventory as % of COGS 21% 22% 29% 21% 25% 23%

Inventory turnover 4.7x 4.6x 3.5x 4.7x 4x 4.3x
Days Inventory outstanding (DIO) 78.1 79.1 105.5 77.9 91.7 84.8

Accounts payable
Beginning of period 257.8 309.1 239.3 207.2 239.6
Increases / (decreases) 51.3 (69.8) (32.1) 32.4 10.2
End of period 257.8 309.1 239.3 207.2 239.6 249.8

AP as % of COGS 15% 17% 13% 12% 13% 12%

Days payables outstanding (DPO 53.2 60.2 49.2 43.3 46.2 44.8

Net Working Capital

Accounts receivable 450.7 475.1 396.7 431.7 457.2 499.5
Inventory 378.5 405.8 512.7 373.1 475.1 473.3
Less: Accounts Payables 257.8 309.1 239.3 207.2 239.6 249.8
Net Working Capital 571.4 571.8 670.1 597.5 692.6 722.9
Change 0.4 98.3 (72.6) 95.1 30.3

Equity Schedule
Other Equity
Beginning of period 1,335.1 1,559.0 1,698.4 1,853.0 2,029.8
Add:Retained Earning 226.7 254.6 308.3 367.7 414.0
Shares Issued during the year - 0.3 5.3 - -
Employee stock Option Scheme 0.9 0.5 0.2 - -
Less: Dividend paid (47.7) (95.4) (159.1) (159.1) (159.1)
Less:Income Tax on dividend (9.8) (19.6) - (31.8) (31.8)
Transaction with holders of NCI 54.4 (1.1) - - -
End of period 1,335.1 1,559.0 1,698.4 1,853.0 2,029.8 2,252.8

Asset Schedule:
Non-current tax assets (net)
Beginning of period 8.0 9.0 1.2 0.2 0.2
Increases / (decreases) 1.0 (7.8) (1.0) - -
End of period 8.0 9.0 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Deferred tax assets (net)
Beginning of period - 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3
Increases / (decreases) 1.4 0.1 (0.2) - -
End of period - 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3

Other non-current assets

Beginning of period 8.0 9.0 1.2 0.2 0.2
Increases / (decreases) 1.0 (7.8) (1.0) - -
End of period 8.0 9.0 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Bank balances Other than above

Beginning of period 2.7 230.3 209.1 417.9 417.9
Increases / (decreases) 227.6 (21.2) 208.9 - -
End of period 2.7 230.3 209.1 417.9 417.9 417.9

Investments
Beginning of period - - 9.8 5.0 5.5
Increases / (decreases) (4.8) 0.5 0.4
End of period - - 9.8 5.0 5.5 5.9

Other current assets

Beginning of period 28.5 28.8 35.2 23.4 23.4
Increases / (decreases) 0.3 6.3 (11.7) - -
End of period 28.5 28.8 35.2 23.4 23.4 23.4

Short term debt and current portions of long term debt

Beginning of period 75.7 63.5 95.6
Increases / (decreases) (12.2) 32.1 (29.9)
End of period 75.7 63.5 95.6 65.8

Cash Availability
Initial Cash 79.8 22.1 16.1 24.8 77.5
Less: Minimum cash required 24.8
Equals: Cash available 52.7
Add: Cash Generated due to operating activities 346.4
Totals: Cash available to pay down short term debt 399.1

Change in Other Assets: 12.0 (5.1)

Change in Other Liabilities: 16.8 (3.9)
 31-Mar-24 31-Mar-25
Forecast

9 10

12% 12%
8% 8%
0% 0%

40.0 40.0
33.8 34.0
30.0 30.0

15% 15%
12% 12%
0% 0%

20% 20%
24% 24%
30% 30%

10% 10%
18% 18%
30% 30%

8% 8%
33.8 34.0
12% 12%
24% 24%
18% 18%

8.0% 8.0%
12.0% 12.0%
26.2% 26.2%
24.4% 23.9%
17.8% 17.9%
9.4% 8.6%
11% 12%
23.7% 21.3%
86.7% 83.9%

3,214.2 3,483.8
 348.6 390.5
3,562.8 3,874.3
8.1% 8.7%

42.7 46.2
52.2 56.4
95.0 102.6
3,214.2 3,483.8
33.8 34.0

293.6 328.9
12% 12%
55.0 61.6
12% 12%
348.6 390.5

0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
(0.0) (0.0)
0.2 0.2
0.5 0.5

0.9 0.9

0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0

0.9 0.9

8.2 8.2
9% 8%
3.0 3.0
0.6 0.6
11.9 11.8

3.0 3.0
- -
3.0 3.0

2,104.6 2,230.2

306.0 308.4
 308.4 290.2
(2.3) 18.2

17.8 17.8
80% 80%

14.9 14.9
8.5 8.5
33.7 32.9
2.8 2.8
21.3 21.3
0.2 0.2
1.3 1.4
3.8 3.8
1.3 1.3
0.2 0.2

6.8 6.5
417.9 417.9
12.9 12.9
4.1 4.1
23.4 23.4

15.9 15.9
64.6 64.6

68.7 68.7
1.5 1.5
16.6 16.6
15.4 15.4

11.8 11.8
109.5 109.2
59.1 60.9
6.2 6.2
7.8 7.8

1,180.7 1,196.3
152.6 167.0
(137.0) (148.8)
1,196.3 1,214.5
 152.6 167.0
4% 4%
137.0 148.8
90% 89%

499.5 533.5
34.0 49.7
533.5 583.2

15% 15%
54.3 54.6

473.3 508.8
35.5 19.8
508.8 528.6

24% 24%
4.1x 4.2x
88.2 86.5

249.8 262.4
12.5 13.4
262.4 275.8

12% 12%
45.5 45.1

533.5 583.2
508.8 528.6
262.4 275.8
779.9 836.1
57.0 56.2

2,252.8 2,620.4
558.4 692.9
- -
- -
(159.1) (159.1)
(31.8) (31.8)
- -
2,620.4 3,122.3

0.2 0.2
- -
0.2 0.2
 1.3 1.3
- -
1.3 1.3

0.2 0.2
- -
0.2 0.2

417.9 417.9
- -
417.9 417.9

5.9 6.4
0.5 0.6
6.4 6.9

23.4 23.4
- -
23.4 23.4

1.5 (1.1)
(5.1) 1.6
Calender year 31-Mar-18
Forecast Schedule Actual

Financial Statement Modeling for Kajaria

A for Actual; P forProjected

Black for hard coded values & , BLUE for Formula,
Company name Kajaria
Ticker KAJARIACER
Share price as of last close ₹ 1,360.55
Latest closing share price date January 14, 2022
Latest fiscal year end date March 31, 2021
No. of days in the accounting year 365

Index
1. Income Statement
2. Balance Sheet
3. Cash Flow Statement
4. Ratio Analysis
5. Sensitivity Analsyis
6. Scenario Analysis

Balance Sheet Back to Index

ASSETS
Non-current assets:
Propeyty, Plant and equipment 1,131.1
Capital work-in-progress 17.6
Goodwill 11.5
Right-of use assets
Other intangible assets 2.6
Intangible assets under devlopment
Financial assets
Investments 0.3
Loans 10.5
Other financial assets 4.0
Non-current tax assets (net) 3.3
Deferred tax assets (net)
Other non-current assets 8.0
Total Non-Current assests 1,188.9

Current assets:
Inventories 378.5
Financial assets
Investments
Trade receivables 450.7
Cash and cash equivalents 79.8
Bank balances Other than above 2.7
Loans 6.6
Other financial assets 4.7
Other current assets 28.5
Debtors
Total Current assets 951.4
TOTAL ASSETS 2,140.3

EQUITY AND LIABILITIES

Equity
Equity share capital 15.9
Other equity 1,335.1
Equity attributable to the shareholders of the Company 1,351.0
Non- controlling interests 66.1
Total Equity 1,417.1

Liabilities:
Non-current liabilities
Financial liabilities
Borrowings 59.4
Lease Liabilities
Provisions 5.2
Deferred tax liabilities (net) 109.9
Other non-current liabilities 2.6
Total Non-Current liabilites 177.1

Current liabilities
Financial liabilities
Borrowings 75.7
Trade payables
Total outstanding dues of micro enterprises and small 18.8
Total outstanding dues of creditors other than micro e 239.0
Lease Liabilities
Other financial liabilities 137.7
Other current liabilities 55.4
Provisions 12.7
Current tax liabilities (net) 6.9
Total Current Liabilities 546.1

Total Liabilities 723.2

Total Liabilities And Equity 2,140.3
Balance Check -

Statement Of Operations Back to Index

Income
Revenue From Operations 2,782.6
Other Income 10.8
Total Income 2,793.4
Expenses
Cost Of Materials Consumed 730.0
Purchases Of Stock-In-Trade 343.2
Changes In Inventories Of Finished Goods, Stock-In-Trade And Work-Inprogress (12.9)
Excise Duty 72.0
Employee Benefits Expense 317.7
Finance Costs 24.1
Depreciation And Amortisation Expense 88.5
Other Expenses 876.3
Total Expenses 2,438.8

Profit Before Tax 354.6

 Profit Before Exceptional Items And Tax (1-11) 354.6
Exceptional Items (Income)/Loss (0.8)
Profit Before Tax 355.3
Tax Expense:
Current Tax 125.9
Deferred Tax 0.8
Profit For The Year 228.6

Other Comprehensive Income (Oci)

Items That Will Not Be Reclassified To Statement Of Profit And Loss
- Remeasurement Of Defined Benefit Plans (0.2)
- Fair Valuation Of Investment In Equity Instruments Through Oci (0.5)
Income-Tax Relating To Items That Will Not Be Reclassified To Statement Of Pr 0.1
Total Other Comprehensive Income For The Year, Net Of Tax (0.6)
Total Comprehensive Income For The Year (Comprising Profit And Other Co 228.0

Profit For The Year Attributable To:

(a) Owners Of The Company 235.0
(b) Non-Controlling Interest (6.4)
Other Comprehensive Income For The Year Attributable To:
(a) Owners Of The Company (0.5)
(b) Non-Controlling Interest (0.1)
Total Comprehensive Income For The Year Attributable To:
(a) Owners Of The Company 234.4
(b) Non-Controlling Interest (6.4)
Earnings Per Equity Share (Face Value Of
- Basic 14.8
- Diluted 14.8

Number of share's O/s Basic 154,668,470.9

Statement of cash flow Back to Index

Cashflow from Operating activities
Profit Before Tax 354.6
Adjustments for :
Depreciation and amortisation expense
Interest income
Interest expense
Gain on disposal of
Exchange fluctuation (net)
Dividend income
Share based payrnents
Subsidy income
Provision for expected credit loss
Loss on sale/discard of property, plant and equipment
Operating profit before working capital changes
Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net Of effects from purchase Of controlled entities and sale Of subsidiary
Movement in inventories
Movement in trade and other receivables
Movement in other assets
Movement in trade and other payables
Movements in provisions
 Cash generated from operations

Income taxes paid (127.5)

(as % of PBT) 36%
Net cash inflow generated from operating activities 238.17

Cash Flows From Investing Activities

Purchase of property, plant and equipment (including capital advances, capital work-in-progress,
Proceeds frorn disposal of property, plant and equipment
Transactions with non-controlling interest
proceeds from disposal of
Loan given
Loan given repatriated
purchase of current investments
proceeds from disposal Of
Interest received
Dividend received
Movement in deposits
Net cash Outflow (used in) investing activities

Cash Flows From Financing Activities

Interest paid
Proceeds from issue of share capital
Repayment of long-term borrowings (ret:
Proceeds/ (repayrnent) of short-term borrowings (net)
Payment of finance lease liabilities
Dividend paid to
Net cash outflow (used in) financing activites

Net increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivaants

Cash and cash equivalents BoP
Cash and cash equivalents EoP

Ratio Analysis Back to Index

EBIDTA 241.9
EBIT 378.7

A. Profitability Margin
Net Profit Margin 8%
EBIT Margin 14%
EBIDTA Margin 9%
Cash flow margin 9%
Return on Assets 11%
Return on Equity 16%

B. Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio 1.7x
Cash Ratio 0.15x

C. Solvency Ratio
Solvency Ratio 0.61x
 Debt to Equity 0.1x
Times Interest Earned 10x

D. Efficiency Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio 4.7x
Asset Turnover Ratio 1.3x

E. Du-Pont Analysis
Profit margin 9%
Total Asset Turnover 130%
Financial Leverage 151%
17%
31-Mar-19 31-Mar-20 31-Mar-21 31-Mar-22 31-Mar-23 31-Mar-24
Actual Forecast

1,067.1 1,142.5 1,152.4 1,164.2 1,180.7 1,196.3

93.4 25.7 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9
8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
42.0 28.8 35.4 32.1 33.7
2.3 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
1.0

0.3 0.3 - 0.3 0.2 0.2

11.8 20.0 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3
4.8 0.8 - 2.4 2.0 1.3
3.5 5.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
9.0 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
1,202.0 1,251.0 1,233.9 1,255.0 1,267.7 1,284.3

405.8 512.7 373.1 475.1 473.3 508.8

9.8 5.0 7.4 6.2 6.8

475.1 396.7 431.7 457.2 499.5 533.5
22.1 16.1 24.8 77.5 257.5 542.9
230.3 209.1 417.9 417.9 417.9 417.9
5.0 3.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9
4.2 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.1
28.8 35.2 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4
27.0 18.0 21.0
1,171.2 1,187.6 1,292.7 1,502.7 1,712.8 2,071.3
2,373.2 2,438.6 2,526.6 2,757.6 2,980.5 3,355.6

15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9

1,559.0 1,698.4 1,853.0 2,029.8 2,252.8 2,620.4
1,574.9 1,714.3 1,868.9 2,045.7 2,268.7 2,636.3
65.9 63.7 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6
1,640.8 1,778.0 1,933.5 2,110.3 2,333.3 2,700.9

31.5 21.5 31.3 35.9 30.0 29.7

23.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4
4.5 23.8 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6
107.3 73.1 68.7 68.7 68.7 68.7
2.6 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
145.9 143.8 133.6 138.2 132.3 132.0

63.5 95.6 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.8

22.9 24.2 23.8 24.0 25.0 26.2

286.1 215.1 183.5 215.7 224.9 236.2
14.5 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8
137.8 110.5 92.7 119.7 115.2 109.5
56.1 51.9 68.1 57.9 58.5 59.1
15.5 5.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
4.6 0.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8
586.6 516.8 459.6 508.7 515.0 522.5

732.4 660.6 593.1 646.9 647.4 654.5

2,373.2 2,438.6 2,526.6 2,757.2 2,980.7 3,355.4
- - - - - -

2,956.2 2,808.0 2,780.9 3,086.0 3,295.5 3,562.8

18.0 24.2 21.3 22.7 22.0 22.4
2,974.2 2,832.2 2,802.2 3,108.7 3,317.5 3,585.2

791.8 736.4 590.4 775.2 818.6 867.7

391.1 449.0 523.3 537.1 596.8 632.6
(36.5) (84.4) 133.3 (50.7) (7.5) (2.3)

345.5 356.9 324.7 340.8 332.7 336.7

15.6 19.5 10.7 12.9 11.5 11.9
89.1 108.1 106.7 118.8 126.6 137.0
1,014.9 934.2 700.5 881.5 882.8 849.7
2,611.4 2,519.7 2,389.5 2,615.4 2,761.5 2,833.3

362.9 312.5 412.7 493.3 556.1 751.9

 362.9
4.8
358.0

130.4 93.7 108.3 129.4 145.9 197.3

(1.2) (34.8) (4.5) (4.5) (4.5) (4.5)
228.8 253.5 308.9 368.3 414.6 559.1

0.3 (1.0) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
(0.1) 0.2 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0)
0.2 (0.8) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
229.0 252.8 309.1 368.6 414.8 559.3

226.6 255.3 308.1 367.5 413.8 558.2

2.2 (1.8) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

0.2 (0.7) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

0.1 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

226.7 254.6 308.3 367.7 414.0 558.4

2.2 (1.8) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

14.3 16.1 19.4 23.1 26.0 35.1

14.3 16.1 19.4 23.1 26.0 35.1

160,526,315.8 157,864,259.0 159,473,412.5 159,473,412.5 159,473,412.5 159,473,412.5

362.9 312.5 412.7 493.3 556.1 751.9

108.1 106.7 118.8 126.6 137.0

(18.5) (17.4) (18.0) (17.7) (17.8)
19.5 10.7 12.9 11.5 11.9
(0.8) (0.2) - - -
(0.6) 0.5 - - -
(0.4) - - - -
0.5 0.2 - - -
(0.5) (0.5) - - -
2.9 1.1 - - -
1.0 6.2 - - -
423.7 520.0 607.0 676.5 882.9
led entities and sale Of subsidiary
(106.9) 139.6 (102.0) 1.8 (35.5)
75.5 (36.6) (25.5) (42.3) (34.0)
(10.8) 11.5 (12.0) 5.1 (1.5)
(64.3) (21.9) 16.8 (3.9) (5.1)
7.8 (5.8) - - -
 324.9 606.8 484.3 637.1 806.8

(132.7) (100.5) (98.0) (137.9) (143.7) (202.3)

37% 32% 24% 28% 26% 27%
317.36 224.4 508.8 346.4 493.4 604.5

k-in-progress, (124.0) (112.7) (130.6) (143.1) (152.6)

2.7 11.5 7.1 9.3 8.2
(0.8) - - - -
- 0.4 - - -
(1.1) (12.7)
2.1 3.2 - - -
(29.9) - - - -
21.0 5.0
18.2 17.6
0.4 - - -
21.4 (207.9) - - -
(90.1) (295.5) (123.5) (133.8) (144.5)

(15.3) (6.8)
0.3 5.3 - - -
(24.9) (0.3) 4.6 (5.9) (0.4)
32.1 (29.9) - - -
(17.7) (13.7) (15.7) (14.7) (15.2)
(115.0) (159.1) (159.1) (159.1) (159.1)
(140.4) (204.5) (170.1) (179.6) (174.6)

(6.0) 8.7 52.7 179.9 285.5

22.1 16.1 24.8 77.5 257.5
16.1 24.8 77.5 257.5 542.9

258.2 184.9 295.4 361.6 417.9 603.1

378.5 332.0 423.5 506.2 567.5 763.8

8% 9% 11% 12% 12% 16%

13% 12% 15% 16% 17% 21%
9% 7% 11% 12% 13% 17%
11% 8% 18% 11% 15% 17%
10% 10% 12% 13% 14% 17%
14% 14% 16% 17% 18% 21%

2x 2.3x 2.8x 3x 3.3x 4x

0.43x 0.44x 0.96x 0.97x 1.31x 1.84x

0.62x 0.64x 0.88x 0.95x 1.05x 1.36x

 0.06x 0.07x 0.05x 0.05x 0.04x 0.04x
16.6x 9.5x 27.6x 28.1x 36.4x 50.8x

4.6x 3.5x 4.7x 4x 4.3x 4.1x

1.2x 1.2x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x

8% 8% 11% 12% 13% 16%

125% 115% 110% 112% 111% 106%
145% 137% 131% 131% 128% 124%
15% 13% 16% 18% 18% 21%
31-Mar-25

1,214.5
14.9
8.5
32.9
2.8

0.2
21.3
1.4
3.8
1.3
0.2
1,301.7

528.6

6.5
583.2
976.4
417.9
12.9
4.1
23.4
20.0
2,573.1
3,874.8

15.9
3,122.3
3,138.2
64.6
3,202.8

31.7
15.4
16.6
68.7
1.5
134.0

65.8

27.6
248.2
11.8
109.2
60.9
6.2
7.8
537.5

671.5
3,874.3
-

3,874.3
22.2
3,896.5

925.4
694.8
18.2

334.7
11.8
148.8
828.6
2,962.3

934.2
 245.1
(4.5)
693.5

0.2
0.1
(0.0)
0.2
693.7

692.7
0.9

0.2
0.0

692.9
0.9

43.5
43.5

159,473,412.5

934.2

148.8
(17.8)
11.8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,077.0

(19.8)
(49.7)
1.1
1.6
-
1,010.1

(246.4)
26%
763.7

(167.0)
8.7
-
-

-
-

-
-
(158.2)

-
2.0
-
(14.9)
(159.1)
(172.0)

433.5
542.9
976.4

773.5
946.0

18%
24%
20%
20%
18%
22%

4.8x
2.59x

1.61x
 0.03x
65.4x

4.2x
1x

18%
100%
121%
22%
Current riskfree rate = 6.58% Risk premium for stocks=
Number of periods of data= 52 Riskfree rate during period =

Time period Index Price(Stock) DPS(Stock) Split Factor Index Level

1.0 1.0 1,360.6 1.0 18,255.8
2.0 1.0 1,356.3 1.0 17,812.7
3.0 1.0 1,290.0 1.0 17,354.1
4.0 1.0 1,220.7 1.0 17,003.8
5.0 1.0 1,239.1 1.0 16,985.2
6.0 1.0 1,171.0 1.0 17,511.3
7.0 1.0 1,125.7 1.0 17,196.7
8.0 1.0 1,115.4 1.0 17,026.5
9.0 1.0 1,170.4 1.0 17,764.8
10.0 1.0 1,194.4 8.0 1.0 18,102.8
11.0 1.0 1,225.7 1.0 17,916.8
12.0 1.0 1,221.3 1.0 17,671.7
13.0 1.0 1,226.3 1.0 18,114.9
14.0 1.0 1,303.7 1.0 18,338.6
15.0 1.0 1,242.7 1.0 17,895.2
16.0 1.0 1,199.4 1.0 17,532.1
17.0 1.0 1,242.2 1.0 17,853.2
18.0 1.0 1,155.0 1.0 17,585.2
19.0 1.0 1,188.3 1.0 17,369.3
20.0 1.0 1,198.3 1.0 17,323.6
21.0 1.0 1,185.1 1.0 16,705.2
22.0 1.0 1,075.2 1.0 16,450.5
23.0 1.0 1,013.2 1.0 16,529.1
24.0 1.0 1,028.4 1.0 16,238.2
25.0 1.0 994.3 1.0 15,763.1
26.0 1.0 991.2 1.0 15,856.1
27.0 1.0 1,003.6 1.0 15,923.4
28.0 1.0 996.4 1.0 15,689.8
29.0 1.0 987.9 1.0 15,722.2
30.0 1.0 993.9 1.0 15,860.4
31.0 1.0 962.5 1.0 15,683.4
32.0 1.0 1,021.9 1.0 15,799.4
33.0 1.0 989.6 1.0 15,670.3
34.0 1.0 955.1 1.0 15,435.7
35.0 1.0 930.6 1.0 15,175.3
36.0 1.0 879.4 1.0 14,677.8
37.0 1.0 903.9 1.0 14,823.2
38.0 1.0 913.0 1.0 14,631.1
39.0 1.0 875.5 1.0 14,341.4
40.0 1.0 903.7 1.0 14,617.9
41.0 1.0 959.3 1.0 14,834.9
42.0 1.0 942.0 1.0 14,867.4
43.0 1.0 898.7 1.0 14,507.3
44.0 1.0 932.4 1.0 14,744.0
45.0 1.0 999.7 1.0 15,031.0
46.0 1.0 992.2 1.0 14,938.1
47.0 1.0 947.1 1.0 14,529.2
48.0 1.0 969.0 1.0 14,981.8
49.0 1.0 962.9 10.0 1.0 15,163.3
50.0 1.0 899.5 1.0 14,924.3
51.0 1.0 824.7 1.0 13,634.6
52.0 1.0 836.5 1.0 14,371.9
53.0 - 751.4 1.0 14,433.7
54.0 - 726.8 1.0 14,347.3
55.0 - 709.4 1.0 14,018.5
56.0 - 689.2 1.0 13,749.3
57.0 - 699.9 1.0 13,760.6
58.0 - 666.6 1.0 13,513.9
59.0 - 671.1 1.0 13,258.6
60.0 - 647.9 1.0 12,969.0

Regression Statistics And Risk Parameters

Risk And Performance Measures:

Intercept (Alpha) = (0.00363)

Slope (Beta)= 1.07397
Rf(1- Beta) = (0.00037)
Intercept-Rf(1-Beta)= (0.00326)

CAPM:
In Estimating Expected Returns:

Riskfree Rate = 6.6%

Historical return premium= 6.4%
Expected return= 13.5%
6.42% Current stock price= 1360.55
6.19% Current Annual DPS = 18

Return(Stock) Return(Mkt) Variance of Stock Variance of Market

(0.0031237367) (0.024269066) 0.00001692274112 0.000418417508

(0.0489198555) (0.025748483) 0.00173742187151 0.000481129886
(0.0536842513) (0.020185490) 0.00215730417702 0.000268031912
0.0150323585 (0.001090936) 0.00049594493398 0.000007414042
(0.0549211089) 0.030974024 0.00227373011957 0.001210193402
(0.0386848847) (0.017965542) 0.00098894035349 0.000200271535
(0.0091498623) (0.009900155) 0.00000365727239 0.000037043603
0.0493096647 0.043364882 0.00319757761264 0.002225828975
0.0273410800 0.019023575 0.00119567561098 0.000521546125
0.0261637642 (0.010271920) 0.00111564195833 0.000041707189
(0.0035899319) (0.013682689) 0.00001330448088 0.000097394777
0.0041351075 0.025082547 0.00012933535153 0.000834999456
0.0631166925 0.012346190 0.00494970714758 0.000261145594
(0.0467899057) (0.024175848) 0.00156439574629 0.000414612611
(0.0348837209) (0.020293151) 0.00076431559604 0.000271568698
0.0356859966 0.018317881 0.00184242335372 0.000489811718
(0.0701606086) (0.015014115) 0.00395932229709 0.000125446842
0.0287878788 (0.012277405) 0.00129782522683 0.000071632438
0.0084157374 (0.002628208) 0.00024502267320 0.000001405652
(0.0110160651) (0.035696968) 0.00001427783632 0.001016535804
(0.0926965107) (0.015246750) 0.00730324889025 0.000130712113
(0.0577101935) 0.004777970 0.00254749655309 0.000073818683
0.0150520653 (0.017599264) 0.00049682305874 0.000190038760
(0.0332069234) (0.029261248) 0.00067441288960 0.000647572126
(0.0031179281) 0.005899873 0.00001697056515 0.000094355640
0.0125107199 0.004247590 0.00038999071349 0.000064986165
(0.0071247073) (0.014670234) 0.00000001271377 0.000117861944
(0.0085307106) 0.002065036 0.00000167249011 0.000034560825
0.0060734892 0.008786938 0.00017718144009 0.000158778847
(0.0315927156) (0.011159905) 0.00059317834380 0.000053965117
0.0616623377 0.007396379 0.00474718248521 0.000125668329
(0.0316093360) (0.008171222) 0.00059398821024 0.000018987044
(0.0348138043) (0.014971044) 0.00076045461543 0.000124483875
(0.0257041148) (0.016866799) 0.00034101723930 0.000170380520
(0.0549674923) (0.032783536) 0.00227815573304 0.000839245067
0.0278030475 0.009902710 0.00122783735493 0.000188142918
0.0100680423 (0.012956086) 0.00029948050085 0.000083581209
(0.0410756339) (0.019803706) 0.00114502183480 0.000255676778
0.0322691187 0.019279914 0.00156076997426 0.000533320090
0.0614695142 0.014844864 0.00472064867264 0.000348146115
 (0.0180349231) 0.002190787 0.00011658515220 0.000036055184
(0.0459153883) (0.024217497) 0.00149598193064 0.000416310446
0.0374986091 0.016315924 0.00200131611719 0.000405206166
0.0721793222 0.019462154 0.00630702571508 0.000541770489
(0.0075522657) (0.006177254) 0.00000009910094 0.000005585870
(0.0454568362) (0.027376306) 0.00146072051061 0.000555191244
0.0231772346 0.031151169 0.00092505380796 0.001222549699
0.0040247678 0.012118077 0.00012683783510 0.000253825013
(0.0658946931) (0.015765038) 0.00344067068396 0.000142831857
(0.0831063428) (0.086413053) 0.00575608696756 0.006822634930
0.0142476052 0.054075660 0.00046160814074 0.003351190751
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

Variance Statistics

Variance of the stock= 0.0015986

Variance of the market = 0.0005401
Systematic variance= 0.0006229
Unsystematic variance= 0.0009757
R squared = 39.0%

In Forecasting Prices:

Current price 1,360.55

Annualized DPS 18.00

Predicted prices:
- One year from now 1,525.88
- Two years from now 1,711.31
- Three years from now 1,919.26
- Four years from now 2,152.49
- Five years from now 2,414.06
January 14, 2022

Covariance of stock and Market

(0.00008415)
0.00091429
0.00076041
0.00006064
(0.00165881)
0.00044504
0.00001164
0.00266782
0.00078968
(0.00021571)
(0.00003600)
0.00032863
0.00113692
0.00080537
0.00045559
0.00094997
0.00070476
(0.00030490)
0.00001856
0.00012047
0.00097705
(0.00043365)
(0.00030727)
0.00066086
0.00004002
0.00015920
(0.00000122)
(0.00000760)
0.00016773
0.00017892
0.00077238
0.00010620
0.00030768
0.00024105
0.00138273
0.00048063
(0.00015821)
0.00054107
0.00091235
0.00128198
(0.00006483)
0.00078917
0.00090053
0.00184850
0.00000074
0.00090054
0.00106345
0.00017943
0.00070103
0.00626671
0.00124376
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
DCF- Valuation:

Assumptions: Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Tax Rate 26% Approach(1:Direct;2:CAPM)=
Share price as of last close ₹ 1,360.55 Discount Rate
Latest closing share price date January 14, 2022 Beta
Latest fiscal year end date March 31, 2021 Risk Free rate
Perpetuity Growth Rate 10% Market Risk Premium
Shares Outstanding 15.91 Debt ratio
EV/EBITDA multiple 29.5x Cost of Borrowing
Nu. of days 365 Discount Rate

Free cash flow buildup

Fiscal year
Fiscal year end date

PBT
Add: Finance Cost
EBIT
Tax Rate
NOPAT

Add: Depreciation
EBITDA
Less: Capex 'Entered as (-ve)
(Incease)/Decrease in Net Working Capital
Unleverd Free Cash Flow
% Growth

Discount factor due to being in the mid of year

Midperiod adjustment factor
Present value-UFCF

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity approach:

Normalized FCF in last forecast period 623.4

Normalized FCFt+1 685.8
Long term growth rate 10%
Terminal value 5,215.6
Present value of terminal value 3,506.6
Present value of stage 1 cash flows 2,131.4
Enterprise value 5,638.0
Implied TV exit EBITDA multiple 6.74x

Fair value per share

Perpetuity EBITDA
Enterprise value 5,638.0 17,473.2
Less: Net debt (101.7) (101.7)
Equity value 5,536.3 17,371.5
Diluted shares 15.9 15.9
Equity value per share 348.0 1,091.9
Market premium / (discount) to fair value 291% 25%
 1
ghted Average Cost of Capital 2
ach(1:Direct;2:CAPM)= 2
10%
1.07
7%
et Risk Premium 6%
5%
9%
13.15%

2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2022 31-Mar-2023 31-Mar-2024 31-Mar-2025

412.74 493.32 556.06 751.92 934.16

10.71 12.85 11.47 11.87 11.83
423.45 506.18 567.53 763.78 945.98
26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
312.34 373.36 418.61 563.37 697.76

106.67 118.83 126.64 136.98 148.81

419.01 492.19 545.26 700.35 846.58
(112.70) (130.63) (143.10) (152.65) (166.98)
72.59 (95.07) (30.33) (56.99) (56.17)
378.90 266.50 371.83 490.71 623.42
-30% 40% 32% 27%

21% 121% 221% 321%

0.21 1.00 1.00 1.00
259.55 320.06 373.30 419.15

Exit EBIDTA Multiple approach

Terminal year EBITDA 773.5

EV/EBITDA multiple 29.5x
Terminal value 22,818.8
Present value of terminal value 15,341.8
Present value of stage 1 cash flows 2,131.4
Enterprise value 17,473.2
Implied TV perpetual growth rate 10.0%

Senstivity Analysis
Share Price Sensitivity:
Exit Multiple
₹ 1,091.86 9.5x 19.5x 29.5x
7.15%
10.15%
Discount Rate 13.15%
16.15%
19.15%
 Back To Index

39.5x 49.5x