Future Scenarios of maritime Logistics and their

Impact on Vocational Training

Heiko Duin Klaus-Dieter Thoben

BIBA - Bremer Institut für Produktion und Logistik GmbH BIBA - Bremer Institut für Produktion und Logistik GmbH
Hochschulring 20, D-28359 Bremen, Germany Hochschulring 20, D-28359 Bremen, Germany
du@biba.uni-bremen.de Faculty of Production Engineering
University of Bremen
Badgasteiner Str. 1, D-28359 Bremen, Germany
tho@biba.uni-bremen.de

Abstract—Organisation of work and application of port staff. On the other hand, emerging technology like
technology in the port of the future is likely to change within digitalization or Industry 4.0 has the potential to attenuate
the forthcoming decade. This paper presents a scenario the consequences of the demographic change but will have
analysis with a time horizon of 2030 focusing on the application impacts on the organization of work. Staff engaged in the
areas Digital Port, Maritime Supply-Chain, and Smart whole maritime supply chain might need different and
Shipping. The analysis is anticipating and projecting 19 key additional competences than they have right now. For the
factors which influence the development of the application analysis of all these different impacts and their mutual
areas in the future. For each application area a scenario is influences among each other in the future the Scenario
presented allowing the analysis of their strategic implications
Technique is the right method.
in due consideration of necessary competence developments in
vocational training. The following chapter introduces related research, i.e.
studies focusing on the future of the European maritime
Keywords—future of ports, maritime supply chain, smart supply chain accompanied by a short state-of-the-art
shipping, scenario analysis, vocational training analysis in scenario techniques and outlining the approach
taken in our study. After presenting the results of the single
I. INTRODUCTION phases of the scenario process an in-depth description of
More than 90% of the world’s goods transport is still three identified scenarios follows. Finally, the challenges
handled by sea transport. Each year around 8 million tons of which can be derived from these scenarios are introduced
goods are transported across oceans by the means of and discussed.
container ships, tankers, and bulk carriers [1]. In 2013 some
9.5 billion tons of sea freight have been handled at seaports II. RELATED RESEARCH
around the world, and the total capacity of the global
container fleet increased to reach around 20 million TEU in A. The Maritime Supply Chain, Ports and Shipping
2015 [2]. Apart from the economic crisis in 2009, one could E.g, the port of Bremen is facing an aging work force.
observe a continuing increase in the global container traffic Jürgenhake et al. surveyed in [6] the situation in the port of
year by year. Containerization of cargo transport is still Bremen. He analyzed 16 companies within the harbor and
increasing resulting in the development of further container distribution logistics sector with 4456 employees in total. In
transport [3]. Container transport was the fastest growing 2006 the average age was 41 years. The age structure
market segment within the maritime logistics sector [4], showed a distinct numerical overhang in the middle ages
thus, the maritime logistics can be considered as one of the between 35 and 44 years. Overall, around 50% of
key sectors for digital transformation. employees belong to the group of 35 to 49-year-olds.
Like all European nations Germany is facing another Around 22% of employees are 50 years or older, however,
challenge, which is the change in the population age only about 3% belong to the age group of 60+. The class of
structure, also called the demographic change. In average young persons (35 years and younger), in contrast, counts
the population is getting older. While in 1950 only 10% of only for around 28% of total work force. A scenario
the population was in the retiring age (65 or older), in 2000 calculation for the year 2016 predicted that the average age
it was already 17% and it will further increase to 29 % in of all employees will grow to 48.5 years and every second
2030 [5,6] resulting in a potential lack of experienced employee is older than 50 years. Such an age structure is
workforce. going to cause severe problems starting around 2020 when
each year many of the employees retire resulting in shortage
The future challenges introduced by the demographic of skilled workers [6].
change is to handle port operations with less staff or less
skilled staff with work force which is not especially In addition, due to changed requirements related to
educated for maritime work. The wave of retirements also safety and security issues and several new regulations put
induces a shortage of experience or tacit knowledge in the into practice during the last years, harbors are facing new
challenges and need not only to invest in new supra- and

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infrastructure but also in the development of their human [18]. Van Notten constructed scenario types using three
resources. In order to identify the most relevant topic related macro-characteristics depending on their objectives, content
to harbor and HR development, a brainstorming session development approach and scenario statement and further
with harbor experts in Bremen was initiated. As an outcome subdivided based on ten micro-characteristics [19]. The
of the session, processes appearing on the quay, i.e. the different approaches to the development of scenarios and
border between sea and land were identified as an area of their integration in strategic management have their own
specific interest [7]. strengths and weaknesses, including:
Upcoming technologies and concepts like big data, cloud • Purely descriptive methods may neglect certain
computing and mobile computing are not only penetrating trends because they are not anticipated by the
the areas of social life but are becoming increasingly scenario creators. The assessed developments of
important in economic processes [3]. This resulted in the different variables (factors) involved in the scenario
fourth industrial revolution coined by the term Industry 4.0 may be contradictory, since they are not
[8]. Industry 4.0 focuses the linkage of industrial processes methodically tested for consistency.
and technologies, together with the business processes and
with new information and communication technologies • Computational approaches can indeed determine the
(ICT) [9]. consistency of scenarios, but often a myriad of
possible configurations have to be checked and as a
The maritime sector can provide artificial intelligence to result there may be thousands of consistent
digitized objects by means of programmability, storage scenarios, which in turn need to be bundled. The
capacity, sensors, and networking, allowing an increase in question is whether appropriate consistency
the efficiency of ship operation [10]. E.g., with AIS-log calculation methods also be able to take into
files, weather data, and fuel-sampling data, large data account dynamic influences without simulation.
sources are available which can be processed using big data
analysis methods. In the field of maritime logistics, • Almost all approaches do not take into account the
multimodal transport processes in the ports require an development way (the path) towards a specific
optimal networking of the individual actors who coordinate scenario, we are satisfied with the result (the image
their activities in the transport chain in order to optimize of the future). The way to a given scenario may be
traffic and goods flows [11]. With the use of digital determined in retrospective by backtracking (e.g.
transformation, the fleet controls can be optimized, whereby [20]). The possibilities of countermeasures are
costs are reduced and the protection of environmental is ignored (e.g. to avoid certain to scenarios).
improved. Traffic control and traffic flows can be optimized Organizations try to adapt to the emerging situation.
by using the ship’s operating data, avoiding critical • Many approaches do not take into account the
situations and thus reducing the risk of accidents. All ship internal factors and one's own action potential (or
data is transmitted to the onshore management in real time, that of other actors in the environment) during the
who can enter into a direct dialog with the ship’s scenario development. Scenarios focus exclusively
management. on external developments and thereby neglecting
Moral and ethical problems may arise, especially in the the internal development, which may also have an
field of technology, information and economic ethics [12]. impact on external factors.
The digital transformation of maritime logistics is successful In trying to clear the doubts around scenarios, Bradfield
if the topics of data protection and data security are given a et al. [16] narrated the evolution of scenario planning and
central role in the implementation strategy. The handling described the basic schools of thought from which principles
with digital applications and technologies does not only of most of the models for scenario planning are developed.
require competent users who are familiar with the digital According to Bradfield et al [16] the existing schools of
innovations, but also secure systems that guarantee the thoughts are the intuitive logics school, the probabilistic
protection of the company’s internal infrastructure and modified trends school and the La Prospective School.
operating systems from cyberattacks [13].
Chermack [22] proposes a theory of scenario planning
B. Scenario Techniques using Dubin’s [23] eight-step theory building methodology.
The objective of this study was to provide an approach for
First steps in scenario technique go back to the work of
studying scenario planning methods that are based on
Kahn and Wiener and have been broken down into a number
research, theory, and practice. The goal was to work towards
of modifications and refinements since their first
a theoretical understanding and validation of scenario
appearance. In Europe, the scenario technique is in third
planning practices through sound, research as such the study
place of the methods for long-term forecasts or foresight, in
provided suggestions for verifying each aspect of the
Africa it is even the first place [14]. Beside scenario
proposed theory.
techniques, technology forecasting and road-mapping play
an important role in futures methods [15]. Scenarios can be considered as stories that describe
future environment. Future environment, however, differs
The extensive methodological field of scenario
from time to time and from situation to situation so scenario
techniques is highly unstructured, so that Bradfield et al.
developers and users should have a way of uniquely
speak of a "methodological chaos" [16]. Varum and Melo
identifying scenarios and treat them as such. In this
confirm this impression in their analysis of literature on the
direction, Notten et al. [19] propose an updated typology for
subject of Scenario Planning [17]. Nevertheless, there are
analyzing and comparing scenarios. Another typology,
attempts to categorize scenario techniques. Börjeson et al.
based on user need has been developed by Börjeson et al.
identify three categories and six different types of scenarios

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 1 Scenario Preparation Scenario-Base
Definition and analysis of subject under consideration
Definition of boundaries for the scenario developement

2 Scenario Field Analysis Key Factors

Scenario-Creation

Stakeholder analysis, identification of spheres of influence

Identification of relevant influencing factors and key factors

3 Scenario Prognostics Projections

Potential future development of key factors
as future projections

4 Scenario Development Scenarios

Complex visions of future situations with uncertainties
concerning occurrence probability

5 Scenario Transfer Strategic Issues

Requirements concerning strategy and competences

Fig. 1. Process of creating and using future scenarios, after [11]

[18] to let users of scenarios know what will happen, what and weighted to distil the most important factors
can happen, and/or how a predefined target can be achieved. driving the future developments which are the key
factors.
Schwartz [24] proposes eight steps for the scenario
planning process to ensure that scenario developers are on • Phase 3: Scenario Prognostics. For each key factor
the “right path”. These steps are: (1) identify the issue, (2) possible projections up to the time horizon are
identify key factors, (3) research driving forces, (4) rank key identified. These are qualitative (or quantitative)
factors and driving forces, (5) develop scenario logics, (6) descriptions about how the key factor can develop
develop scenario details, (7) consider implications and (8) into the future. It is important not to anticipate only
identify indicators. one development but to cover three to five possible
options.
According to recent findings, in applying the scenario
technique in large group structured companies often only • Phase 4: Scenario Development. In this phase an
one scenario is created [21], namely, the most likely identification and comparison of the consistency of
scenario. Such a scenario is not substantially different to a all projections of all key factors needs to be done.
prognosis. This is caused by limited available resources for This is normally not possible without computational
the scenario creation and in the avoidance of doubts, support. Consistent key factor projections are
especially in the lower levels. The disadvantages are bundled into raw scenarios. These raw scenarios are
obvious: testing the robustness of strategies to different described in natural language to make them better
developments cannot be performed with this approach. understandable even by non-experts.
For the scenario analysis of the maritime supply chain • Phase 5: Scenario Transfer. In this phase the
with emphasis on the digital port and smart shipping an developed scenarios are used to identify
approach developed by J. Gausemeier called Scenario requirements and strategic options resulting in
Management has been chosen [25, 26]. This approach is instructions or plans.
divided into five phases (see Fig. 1):
• Phase 1: Scenario Preparation. Within this phase the C. Vocational Education and Training
subject under consideration (maritime supply chain Vocational education and training (VET) is education
with emphasis on the digital port and smart that prepares people to work in various jobs such as a trade
shipping) is analyzed. The time horizon of the or a craft. Vocational education can take place at the post-
analysis is decided, the current state is anticipated, secondary, further education, and higher education level.
and it has to be decided what the main focus is, VET can also interact with the apprenticeship system. At the
what might be included and what needs to be post-secondary level vocational education is often provided
excluded of the analysis. by highly specialized trade Technical schools, community
colleges, colleges of further education (e.g. in the UK),
• Phase 2: Scenario Field Analysis. In this step an universities, as well as Polytechnic Institutes (Institutes of
optional stakeholder analysis may be performed to technology). Almost all vocational education takes place in
identify and estimate the influence and power of the the classroom, or on the job site, with students learning trade
stakeholders. Influencing factors are identified from skills and trade theory from accredited professors or
internal, the branch and the global environment established professionals. However, online vocational
(context). These influencing factors are aggregated education has grown in popularity, and made it easier than

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 ever for students to learn various trade skills and soft skills hardware and the information carriers, but also of
from established professionals in the industry. the corresponding standardization of interfaces, bus
systems and data exchange formats, which make
III. THE SCENARIO PROCESS communication between the systems possible in the
first place.
The scenario process as outlined in the previous section
has been executed in the context of the MARIDAL project • IT Security. IT security refers to the security of
with a team consisting of project partners representing views information technology and processing systems. As
from academia, training providers and potential end user part of information security, which also includes
companies. The objective was to compose an data security, the focus is on the basic values of
interdisciplinary team. In the beginning the team consisted information security: confidentiality, availability
of 10 experts from industry and science stabilizing at 9 and integrity. The focus is on the security of the
experts during its course. The process was implemented in systems for ship management and the management
seven half-day workshops with “homework exercises” for and control of the systems in the port or supply
the project consortium partners between the workshop chain.
meetings.
• Business Models. A business model describes the
It has been decided to look into the future up to the year logical functioning of a company and, in particular,
2030 and to focus on (human) working and learning, the specific way in which it generates profits.
organizations and technology within the application areas of Basically, the description of business models should
digtal ports maritime supply chains and smart shipping. The help to understand, analyze and communicate the
three phases of the scenario creation have executed with the key factors of a company's success or failure. A
steps as shown in Fig. 2. business model consists of three main components:
The promise of benefits, the architecture of value
During the scenario field analysis phase, a stakeholder creation and the profit model.
analysis has been performed. A group brainstorming
revealed 18 different stakeholders in the considered • Global vs. Local Procurement Processes:
application areas of ports. The mutual influences among Procurement is one of the basic business functions.
these stakeholders and their importance (relevance) were Its object is the extraction and provision of
estimated by the scenario team and averaged. The result production factors (labor, operating resources,
shows that the most relevant stakeholders are the shipping materials) for the fulfilment of corporate purposes.
companies followed by the port authorities, the forwarders
and the terminal operators. The strongest influences on other • Legal Frameworks: Legal frameworks can affect the
stakeholders have port states followed by international entire supply chain from shipper to consignee.
organizations. Examples are: (a) Stricter safety regulations in all
process steps (loading, transport, storage, etc.), (b)
In a second step the branch of the port is divided into Reduction of permitted environmental damage
spheres of influence (see Fig. 3). In the center is the subject (example: MRV directive (Measuring, Reporting
under study (Digital Port, Maritime Supply Chain, and and Verification) from 1.1.2018), (c) Changed
Smart Shipping), surrounded by the market, the stakeholders customs structures. This key factor describes the
and application relevant regulations. Above all is the scope of these obligations and regulations and the
hemisphere of the global context or global environment strength of the interactions with maritime supply
divided into economy, politics, environment, and society. chains.
During a silent brainstorming session all workshop
participants noted down influencing factors from these • Data Protection: On 25 May 2018, the European
spheres resulting in a total list of 63 factors. These factors General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)
have been aggregated to 19 key factors driving the replaced the previous national Data Protection Acts.
development of the future. These key factors are: The protection of personal data has been
strengthened by this new regulation. Under this
• IT Infrastructure. Technically, the IT infrastructure regulation, companies such as port operations and
consists of hardware, software and structural shipping companies are obliged to provide evidence
facilities for the operation of (application) software. of compliance with data protection regulations.
Information management extends the technical view Personal data may only be processed for a specific
of the IT infrastructure to include institutional and purpose if it can be proven that consent has been
personnel conditions. A corresponding given.
infrastructure is the essential basis for the areas of
the digital maritime supply chain, the digital port • Vulnerability: Vulnerability assessment results from
and Smart Shipping. This consists not only of the the combination of sensitivity, adaptive capacity (=

Identification Consolidation Projections Definition Mapping

Stakeholder
of Influencing to Key for Key of Scenario Projections to
Analysis
Factors Factors Factors Framework Framework

Fig. 2. Steps of the Scenario Creation Phase

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 natural adaptive capacity/knowledge of appropriate • Demographic Change: Demography is concerned
adaptation strategies and measures) and exposure (= with population trends and considers many factors,
changes in parameters affecting a sector) of a including birth and death rates, the age structure of a
system. Several optional assessment levels exist to country's inhabitants, immigration and emigration,
assess vulnerability. These are, for example, and marriage and divorce rates.
subdivided into the categories low, medium and
high. Exposure, for example, is based on the "all • Sustainable Acting: Sustainability is a principle of
hazards approach". This includes the influences action for the use of resources, in which the
from: (a) natural events (e.g. extreme weather preservation of the essential properties, the stability
conditions), (b) technical and human failure as well and the natural regenerative capacity of the
as (c) terrorism, crime and war. respective system is in the foreground. "Essentially,
sustainable development is a process of change in
• Basic and Vocational Training. This factor describes which the use of resources, the goal of investment,
the level of basic training and vocational training. the direction of technological development and
E.g., the number of applications for vocational institutional change harmonize and increase the
training to become a ship mechanic has fallen in current and future potential to meet human needs
recent years. Whereas in 2009 there were 355 and desires. This key factor describes the
applicants looking for a training place, in 2016 there characteristics of sustainable action. Various
were only 106 applicants. dimensions need to be taken into account: Ecology,
economy, and social affairs.
• Level of Qualification: The qualification level
consists of professional competence (knowledge and • Working Conditions: Working conditions are
skills) and personal competence (social competence conditions that have been negotiated between the
and independence). Qualification is the generic term employer and the employee and become legally
for measures to develop, maintain and expand skills binding through the employment contract. Working
and abilities that are necessary to cope with conditions include individual agreements, for
occupational requirements. example on notice periods, remuneration, fringe

Fig. 3. Spheres of influence as identified during the scenario process

Fig. 4. The martime supply chain including ports and shipping

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 benefits, working hours, but also organizational During the scenario prognostics phase for each of the
agreements such as disciplinary proceedings or above key factors different projections into the future have
complaints procedures and, last but not least, legal been described. The objective was to have between two and
regulations. five different projections for each key factor in natural
language. In total 60 projections for the key factors have
• Attractiveness: In the maritime economy there is a been described where most of the key factors have three
multitude of professions. The training occupations projections and a few of the factors have four projections.
include e.g. ship mechanic, shipping merchant and The number of the projections per key factor depends on its
boat builder. The study occupations include nautical complexity and the anticipated different developments.
engineer, business economist, logistics and marine
biologist. As an example, the projections for key factor
Attractiveness (of maritime professions) are:
• Location Policy: Location policy has a significant
influence on the further development of the • Projection A – Maritime professions are highly
maritime economy and thus on maritime logistics. attractive
An efficient maritime economy is the basis for
Shipping and the maritime industry are often
ensuring that products and services are available
represented in the coverage of various media. The
worldwide on time. Location policy determines
picture is characterized by demanding technical
future viability.
tasks and interesting global fields of activity. The
• World Economy: The world economy is the totality number of students entering the corresponding
of the economic relations of the world, which training occupations and courses of study is
includes all state economies. It represents a correspondingly high. It is almost impossible to get
worldwide integration of various sub-markets (raw a training place without an A level, and
materials and goods market, financial market, labor consideration is being given to providing some of
market and information market). Contractual the courses with a numerus clausus.
framework conditions of the global economy
• Projection B – Maritime professions have a medium
include WTO agreements, customs and currency
attractiveness
agreements, GATT and OECD. World trade is
dominated by the industrial nations, in particular by The professions in the maritime economy are
the European Union with a share of more than one characterised by many lateral entrants and
third. The so-called emerging markets - above all international workforces. On the whole, young
the People's Republic of China - are playing an people have relatively little interest in maritime
increasing role in global economic exchange. This occupations, but there are always enough interested
key factor describes the possible economic parties for maritime occupations, so that no training
developments. or study place remains unfilled.
• Packaging: In general, packaging is the single or • Projection C – Maritime professions have a low
multiple wrapping of a packaged good. Packaging attractiveness
fulfils a number of functions, e.g. marketing
function, use function, and logistics function. The image of port handling and shipping is not very
attractive to the public and especially to young
• Enterprise management: Enterprise management people. This picture is characterized by low salaries
usually refers to the management of economic and wages and unattractive working hours and
organizations, i.e. enterprises. A distinction is made content. The low attractiveness has also been
between the institutional view (who leads the reflected for years in the declining number of
company?), the functional view (how?) and the training and study places for the corresponding
process-oriented view (how is management maritime occupations. Only youths with parents
conducted?). In business administration in general, who have an affinity for the maritime sector are able
the listed key performance indicators refer to the to get through to training in this field.
success, performance or capacity utilization of the
At this stage of the scenario process typically a
company or its individual organizational units.
consistency analysis of the pairwise combined projections of
• Goods values and Inventories: Stock describes the the key factors is executed. This analysis is carried out by
number of units of measure of a product at a certain filling out the consistency matrix which would be 60x60 in
point in time that are either physically in stock, in our case. With such a consistency matrix all possible
transit, or can be determined according to certain combinations of projections are computed, and their
accounting criteria (for example, outstanding consistency is checked. Due to the lack of resources in the
purchase orders). scenario team a different solution has been applied which is
presented in the next chapter.
• Innovation: Mechanization is understood to mean
the constantly growing use of technical aids, also in
work processes, which were previously reserved IV. THE THREE SCENARIOS
exclusively for the intellectual or manual activity of The main objective of the scenario analysis was to
human beings. Mechanization also includes anticipate how work, technology and processes in the port of
automation. the future might develop. Therefore, we decided to define
three meta factors called Organization, Technology and
Working & Learning, but without endowing them with

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 specific units. The dimensions of these meta factors can be Over the whole maritime supply chain, the
either positive or negative expressing that their development qualification level among work force will be quite
into the future may result in problems or not. These three specific for smaller groups (experts). The situation
meta factors span up a 2x2x2 matrix representing eight in education and training will be between
scenarios per application area (therefore, 2x2x2x3 = 24 substitution and a decline in trainee ratio and
scenarios). specific competence development in dedicated
trainings. Workplace conditions are characterized
The projections of the 19 key factors were matched to by additional workload and worsened working
these 24 scenarios based on plausibility considerations. The conditions.
result was considered to be too complex to draw any useful
conclusions on it. Therefore, the matchings were counted to • Scenario 3: Preferred Scenario for Smart Shipping
generate averaged scenarios per application field, which
were called “preferred scenarios”. This resulted in three IT related issues like infrastructure, security and
detailed scenario descriptions. data protection will be dominated by fights for
market dominance in the smart shipping area.
• Scenario 1: Preferred Scenario for the Digital Port Business models will probably not change, and the
management of companies will try to balance the
IT related issues like infrastructure, security and three pillars of sustainability (economic,
data protection will not dramatically change within environmental, and social). Innovation is driven by
the port area. Business models may change by modular optimization or by system specific
taking up new platform models, the management of digitization. There will be a slowdown in the world
companies will probably try to balance the three economy growth and a tendency that regulations
pillars of sustainability (economic, environmental, become stricter.
and social). Innovation is driven by modular
optimization of specific port processes. There will Within smart shipping, the qualification level
be a slowdown in the world economy growth and a among work force will be quite specific for all
tendency that regulations become stricter. groups on board (experts). The situation in
education and training will be between substitution
The qualification level among work force will be and a decline in trainee ratio and specific
quite specific for smaller groups (experts). The competence development in dedicated trainings.
situation in education and training is unclear, Workplace conditions are characterized by
ranging from work process integrated learning to additional workload.
specific competence development in dedicated
trainings. Workplace conditions are between
“human digitalization” and additional workload and V. RESULTING CHALLENGES
worsened working conditions. The final phase of the scenario process, the scenario
transfer, will be executed by the scenario team by analyzing
• Scenario 2: Preferred Scenario for the Maritime
chances, risks, and what strategic issues may arise from that
Supply Chain
analysis. These results can be summarized as the challenges
IT related issues like infrastructure, security and resulting from the scenarios. Chances, risks, and strategic
data protection will not dramatically change within issues can further be divided into the categories general,
the maritime supply chain. Again, business models workforce, company, political, and economical.
may take up new platform models, the management
of companies will try to balance the three pillars of A. Chances
sustainability (economic, environmental, and Generally, the deployment of digitalization technology
social). Innovation is driven by modular in the application areas can lead to a better sustainability in
optimization or by system specific digitization. all three dimensions (social, economic, and environmental).
There will be a slowdown in the world economy Employability can be retained on a high level.
growth and a tendency that regulations become
stricter. With growing requirements on competences and skills

Preferred Scenarios Preferred Scenarios

Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario

Maritime Smart Maritime Smart

Digital Port Digital Port
Supply-Chain Shipping Supply-Chain Shipping

KF1: A Maritime Collaborative Decision Making 25 20 19

IT Infrastructure B Fight for Market Dominance 34 30 31 (x) (x) (x)
C Innovation Backlog among Ship Operators 25 29 23 (x)
KF2: A Security-by-Design 31 28 28 (x) (x) (x)
IT Security B Survival of the fittest 27 26 30 (x) (x) (x)
C No specific Focus on Security 31 28 21 (x) (x)
KF3: A Continuation of Existing Business Models 43 42 38 x x (x)
Business Models B Evolutionary Development with partly new Business Models 33 29 25 (x) (x)
C Disruptive Transition to Completely new Business Models 15 15 15
Fig. 5. Three “preferred scenarios” for the application areas Digital Port, Maritime Supply Chain, and Smart Shipping (first three key factors)

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workforce has the chance to maintain their high-wage risks as well as resulting strategic issues have been
workplace. E.g., jobs in the port area have the potential to identified and shortly discussed.
become renowned positions.
The analysis has been performed by an interdisciplinary
Companies may search for new forms of cooperation team to include different perspectives. Nevertheless, the
and new business models. Experience and knowledge in the results present a basic starting point which needs a wider
workforce is retained, attractiveness for job-seeking people uptake and discussion with other experts in the field to detail
raises. specific developments while time moves on and reveals
further insights.
Politics can accelerate the ongoing change to ensure
competitiveness of the region and the residing enterprises by
intensifying cooperation of actors from research and science ACKNOWLEDGMENT
and economy. Early movers may define the future standards The research presented in this paper is part of the joint project
for digital port and smart shipping technologies resulting in MARIDAL (Maritimes Regionalnetzwerk für integratives
exporting the solutions to other regions and ports. Arbeiten und Lernen), No. FKZ01PA17004E, funded by the
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
B. Risks through the project management agency Projektträger im
Workforce may feel overwhelmed by the organizational Deutschen Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (PT-DLR). The
and technological changes they have to face. There is a authors of the paper wish to acknowledge the funding and all
strong need for own competence development to keep pace participants of the MARIDAL consortium and external experts
with the technological progress. For some of them this may for their valuable work and contributions to the scenario
result in loss of employment. analysis.
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