USD/JPY VERGING ON A

MAJOR 40 YEAR CYCLE

REVERSAL By Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Technical Strategist
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

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 SPECIAL REPORT
USD/JPY 9 November, 2011

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
JPY INTERVENTION: HOW CREDIBLE IS THE 3RD STRIKE?! (3)
USD/JPY SENTIMENT & STRATEGIC PRICE LEVELS (5)
40 YEAR LONG-TERM CYCLE VERGING ON A MAJOR REVERSAL (6)
THE BEST FX TRADES TO PROFIT FROM JPY WEAKNESS (7)
After yet another JPY intervention by the Ministry of Finance, investors and traders
around the world are questioning the “real” impact on the currency's eternal
price appreciation. Technical evidence suggests that although the initial reaction on
the JPY, post intervention, was stronger than after previous attempts; each one is
actually having a decreased price effect as the credibility of the Bank of Japan’s
ability to influence the JPY diminishes for traders.

USD/JPY remains bullish over the medium to longer-term, but in the short-term expect
another post intervention retracement (PIR) which may carve out a fresh new
record low. Sentiment proxies within the option market suggest that buying pressure is
still very overcrowded as everyone continues to try to be the first to successfully call
the market bottom. This may trigger a temporary, but dramatic, price spike (that
would help flush out a number of large downside barriers and stop loss-orders).

Please select link for MIG Bank’s Daily Technical Report and JPY coverage: Keep alert for a 40-year long-term cycle on USDJPY verging on a major reversal into
November-December 2011. This is further supported by monthly bullish DeMark™
exhaustion signals. A confirmation above $80.60 is required to launch a powerful
MIG Bank Research
recovery toward $83.30 and $85.50, with upside scope into $94.00.

MIG Bank USD/JPY Webinar Video Global market attention and the potential major trend reversal will keep volatility high
for a while. However, the major cycle reversal in JPY will be driven by broad
weakness across a variety of other currencies. In relative terms, high-yielding
currencies such as TRY, BRL, ZAR, are setup to gain most from JPY weakness.

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 EUR/USD SPECIAL REPORT
USD/JPY 9 November, 2011

+1 DAY POST +5 DAYS POST

INTERVENTION INTERVENTION JPY Intervention: How credible is the 3rd STRIKE?!

 After yet another JPY intervention by the Ministry of Finance,

JPY INTERVENTION
LOSES CREDIBILITY investors and traders around the world are questioning the “real”
impact on the currency's eternal price appreciation.

 The estimated ¥7 trillion injection used to counter the JPY's record

overvalued levels, which continues to hurt the nation's competitive
export-led economy, was the largest on record, overshadowing
USDJPY previous efforts last seen in August 2011.
SPIKES
400 PIPS HIGH-BETA
JPY CARRY TRADES  Indeed, the vast amount of government liquidity marked a large
QUICKLY MEAN REVERT TO
PREINTERVENTION LEVELS carbon footprint that saw USD/JPY rocket by over 400 pips in just a
few minutes from new post-World War II record lows at $75.35. The
Figure 1. Intraday 60 mins chart of multiple JPY FX rates. Source. Bloomberg Finance LP net effect was largely positive for the USD, boosting the DXY
(which allocates its second largest weighting of 13.6% to JPY).
CORRELATED RISK MARKETS SELL-OFF FROM KEY CHART LEVELS
EURUSD AUDUSD S&P500  This also helped trigger a loud firing shot across popular risk proxies
such as EUR/USD, AUD/USD and developed equity markets
including the S&P500, which all reversed sharply from key chart
INTERNAL
RANGE levels, back under their long-term 200-day moving averages.
DISTRIBUTION
(1.0730) PATTERN
NECKLINE
200-DMA
($1.4104)
200-DMA
UPTREND (1273)
200-DMA
(2 YEARS)
($1.0413)

Figure 2 Daily Chart of EURUSD, AUD and S&P500 Index. Source. Bloomberg Finance LP.

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 SPECIAL REPORT
USD/JPY 9 November, 2011

PROBABILITY FAVOURS ANOTHER PIR  But will the third intervention strike this year by the Japanese authorities be
POST INTERVENTION
RETRACEMENT (PIR) enough to hold back the JPY's painful appreciation? In the end, the price
BEFORE REVERSING BOJ chart – “Mr. Market” – dictates the future, where “in the short-run, the
MOVE
QUAKE HIGHER ABOVE 80.00/60 (SEPT market is a voting machine, but in the long-run it is a weighing
HIGH 2010) machine” and market sentiment will ultimately decide.

G7 PIR  Technical evidence suggests that although the initial reaction on the JPY,
MOVE 15 DAYS post intervention, was stronger than after previous attempts; the price
(I)
reversals are becoming less sustainable each time. Without the
compounding backdrop of a key change in the market cycle (mass
BOJ psychology) and perhaps additional monetary-political support from G-7
MOVE
(II) governments, any benefits may only prove temporary.
BOJ
MOVE
(III)  The only lasting currency devaluation this year followed the
earthquake in March and consequential multilateral intervention, which
PIR
served as a double-positive of external influences on the JPY. (Note;
PIR
external event shocks such as natural disasters or political wars, have
tended to historically induce major price reversals in markets).

 However, a review of Japan’s most recent unilateral interventions in August

this year and September 2010 shows it took only 4 and 15 days
respectively for USD/JPY to trigger a post intervention retracement
PINL
PINL
PINL
? (PIR) and new low (PINL).
OVER 4 MONTHS 44 DAYS
DAYS PINL
 The fact that each intervention is having a decreased effect over time
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS AHEAD OF
NEW POST WWII RECORD LOW ($75.35) TD RISK ($74.55)
suggests the credibility of the Bank of Japan’s ability to influence the
JPY has likely diminished for traders. History also teaches us that
virtually all JPY interventions over the last ten years exhibit comparable
short-term reversion and timing characteristics.
Figure 3 USDJPY daily chart illustrating historical price reactions to FX interventions in 2010 & 2011.
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP.

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 SPECIAL REPORT
USD/JPY 9 November, 2011

USD/JPY FALLING WEDGE

USD/JPY Sentiment & Strategic Price Levels
PATTERN
ANTICIPATING  USD/JPY remains bullish over the medium to longer-term, but in the short-
-22.9% UPSIDE
term expect another post intervention retracement which may carve out
BREAKOUT
a fresh new record low. This is also favoured by current sentiment measures
-23.3% ABOVE $80.60
which remain heavily skewed in the option market (based on 1 month 25-delta
-20.6% Risk/Reversals), which shows long call options at multi-year highs. Put simply,

WAVE EQUALITY ?
USD/JPY buying pressure is still very overcrowded as everyone
continues to try and be the first to successfully call the market bottom.
OPTION SKEW AT MULTI-YEAR HIGHS
 This may trigger a temporary, but dramatic, price spike (that would help
…BUT THE MARKET HAS MORE flush out a number of large downside barriers and stop loss-orders), into
VOLATILITY
EXPANSION ROOM FOR LONG “CALLS” psychological levels at $75.00 and perhaps even sub-$74.00. Keep in mind
+ 50,000 that such a scenario would also inspire another round of even stronger
JPY intervention that would likely benefit from the price vacuum and assist
4 YEARS OF LONG USDJPY “PAIN” TRADE
- COTLIQUIDITY
COT LIQUIDITY WILL IMPROVE ABOVE TRIGGER LEVEL
their mandate of sustainably reversing the JPY’s trend.

 Watch strategic upside price levels on USD/JPY ahead of important cycle

Figure 4. USDJPY weekly chart, with Sentiment & Liquidity proxies. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP. inflection points into Nov-Dec 2011; $80.00-60 (Psychological-TD level),
then $82.00 (post-G7 intervention high) and $83.30 (28th March earthquake
high). All levels serve as important bullish psychological triggers in the market.

 Astute investors and traders can use diversified methods to manage

risk/return exposure within option strategies, during what may continue to be a
two-way, volatile market over the next 1-3 month horizon. High-probability
option strategies include a “long straddle”, favouring increased
volatility (regardless of price direction) or a “long call” that would hedge
for the likely upside breakout from USDJPYs multi-year wedge pattern.

Figure 5. Option strategies-LONG STRADDLE & LONG CALL.

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 SPECIAL REPORT
USD/JPY 9 November, 2011

MONTHLY
40-YEAR USDJPY TREND DEMARK™ Major Cycle Reversal
II IS ON THE EDGE OF EXHAUSTION
 Macro chart dynamics confirm that a major turning point is developing on
A MAJOR UPSIDE REVERSAL SIGNAL
USD/JPY. Long-term charts exhibit a confluence of bullish evidence with our
(NOV-DEC 2011)
UPSIDE primary focus on the related 40-year Elliott Wave cycle and monthly bullish
REVERSAL
TRIGGER NEEDS DeMark™ exhaustion signals.
TD PRICE FLIP
& SUSTAINED
CLOSE ABOVE
$80.60  The 40 year long-term impulsive Elliott Wave cycle on USD/JPY is on the
edge of a major upside reversal. Closer examination also illustrates a
I symmetrical time fractal of 16.5 years (198 months) which is scheduled to
end into this November-December 2011. This also follows a 9 month cycle
IV which bottomed in October 2011.
HAMMER
V PATTERN
 The expanded chart (top, right-hand side) illustrates DeMark’s bullish
16.5 YEARS
III 16.5 YEARS TD RISK ($76.80/50)
monthly reversal signal (Sequential & Combo), which was developed in late
2010. Although this long-term signal has not yet triggered the expected price
Figure 6. Long-term 40 year Elliott Wave cycle on USDJPY, signaling a major upside reversal. upside reversal, we must respect that it has, thus far, managed to cap
Figure 7. Monthly DeMark buy signals cap USDJPY decline. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP. USD/JPY’s powerful decline.

9 MONTH CYCLE  A TD Price Flip and close above $78.80-80.60 (TD MA1-TD Ref Close), is
(IV) (2) BOTTOMED IN
required to launch a powerful recovery toward $83.30 and $85.50,
OCTOBER 2011
with upside scope into $94.00. Only a sustained close beneath $76.80-
76.50 (TD Risk Line-TD Ref Close) would negate the bullish macro setup.
(1) (4)

(3)
(V) (5)
Figure 8. USDJPY 9 month cycle bottomed in October 2011. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP.

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 SPECIAL REPORT
USD/JPY 9 November, 2011

What are the best FX Trades to profit from JPY weakness?

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE ON JPY
(1 MONTH)
 The global market attention and potential major trend reversal will keep
volatility high for a while. However, the major cycle reversal in JPY
will be driven by broad weakness across a variety of other
currencies. It would also be valuable to look at other relative currency
opportunities against the JPY, rather than only USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

 Figure 9. illustrates a technical model which measures relative

performance (based on proprietary momentum filters), across a basket of
FX rates against the JPY. Each quadrant represents a market’s cycle,
HIGH-YIELDING
rotating clockwise, from “leading“ to “weakening” and “lagging” to
TRY, BRL, ZAR
TO GAIN MOST FROM “improving” stages.
JPY WEAKNESS
 The results derived from this unique visualization of market relative
performance over time tells us that high-yielding currencies such as
TRY, BRL and ZAR are setup to gain most from JPY weakness
Figure 9. Relative performance on JPY, based on technical momentum filters.
(positioned within the upper right “leading” quadrant).
Source. Bloomberg LP. Developed by Julius de Kempaenar

HIGH-YIELD FX RATES EXHIBIT BULLISH MEAN REVERSION SETUPS

TRY/JPY ZAR/JPY  All three markets exhibit strong bullish mean reversion characteristics
BRL/JPY
from extremely undervalued levels against the JPY. Such a scenario
would unlock a massive unwind in the popular carry trade (where investors
50% ZONE borrow from a low yielding currency such as JPY and fund higher return
50% ZONE
50% ZONE markets).

200-DMA 200-DMA
(48.33) (11.26)

Figure 10. Daily Chart of TRY/JPY, BRL/TRY and ZAR/JPY. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP.

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200-DMA
(48.33) 7
 SPECIAL REPORT
USD/JPY 9 November, 2011

JPY INDEX DEMARK™

EXHAUSTION Conclusion
SIGNAL

 USD∕JPY remains bullish over the medium to long-term, but in the short-
term expect another Post Intervention Retracement (PIR) as the
credibility of BOJ's third strike attempt this year to reverse JPY
diminishes with traders. Sentiment measures also suggest that USD/JPY
buying pressure is still very overcrowded as everyone continues to try and
be the first to successfully call the market bottom. This may lead to a
temporary, but dramatic spike into the psychological levels at $75.00
CONFIRMATION and perhaps even sub-$74.00.
BELOW 135
WARNS OF
 “Mr. Market” will decide USD/JPY’s fate as the rate edges closer to its 40
UPTREND
BROAD JPY year long-term cyclical reversal (triggering a major change in mass
(2 YEARS) WEAKNESS psychology). Expect broad JPY weakness to mark another wave of change
in global safe-haven flows, which has traditionally been attracted to the
JPY and previously CHF and Gold. In a relatively weak beauty contest, the
USD, which is at a polar opposite technical setup (oversold levels), will
Figure 11. Daily Chart of Japanese yen Index. Bloomberg Finance LP gain from this domino effect, as capital searches for a new safe home.
A WAVE OF CHANGE IN GLOBAL SAFE HAVEN FLOWS WILL BENEFIT USD
USD INDEX  However, in the short-term, USD/JPY will remain a “house of pain” trade,
USD/CHF GOLD
marked by two-way volatility. Astute investors and traders can use
additional methods to manage their risk-reward exposure through option
200-
DMA strategies. Watch strategic upside price levels on USD/JPY ahead of an
20% important cycle infection points into November-December 2011;
200- 10%
32% DMA $80.00-60, then $83.30 and $85.50, with upside scope into $94.00.
CHF WEAKENS FROM
RECORD LEVELS AFTER 200- GOLD RISK USD TARGETS
In relative terms, high-yielding currencies such as TRY, BRL, ZAR, are
SNB INTERVENTION DMA INTO $1300 6 MONTHS HIGHS setup to gain most from a massive unwind of the popular carry trade.

Figure 12. Daily Chart of USDCHF, Gold and the USD Index. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP.

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
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LEGAL SPECIAL REPORT
TERMS 9 November, 2011

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 SPECIAL REPORT
CONTACT 9 November, 2011

Howard Friend, CMT

www.migbank.com Ron William, CMT, MSTA Bjioy Kar, CFA MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or
Chief Market Strategist Technical Strategist Technical Strategist info@migbank.com CH-2008 Neuchâtel
h.friend@migbank.com r.william@migbank.com b.kar@migbank.com www.migbank.com Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 10