SPUR AECOM Model Places

SPUR REPORT
GROWTH
Model
Places
Envisioning a future Bay Area with

room and opportunity for everyone
SEPTEMBER 2020
This report is a component of the SPUR Regional Strategy,
a vision for the future of the San Francisco Bay Area
spur.org/regionalstrategy
The SPUR Executive Board adopted this report as SPUR policy on May 5, 2020.
Acknowledgements
Authors: Special thanks to Microsoft for Thank you to the funders of the SPUR
Benjamin Grant, SPUR generously supporting the machine Regional Strategy:
Sarah Jo Szambelan, SPUR learning that underpins SPUR’s Chan Zuckerberg Initiative
Stephen Engblom, AECOM place types, a groundbreaking Clarence E. Heller Charitable Foundation
Cristian Bevington, AECOM categorization of land use across the Curtis Infrastructure Initiative
Hugo Errazuriz, AECOM nine-county Bay Area. Dignity Health
Facebook
Additional Contributors: Illustrations: Genentech
Joy Woo, AECOM Danie Drankwalter George Miller
Radhya Adityavarman, AECOM Ishita Jain Hellman Foundation
Diane Cowin, AECOM Ryan Floyd Johnson John S. and James L. Knight Foundation
Anne DeBoer, AECOM Arthur Mount Marin Community Foundation
Abhishek Sharma, AECOM Nik Richard Sage Foundation
Hannah Schwartz, SPUR Illustrations made possible by a Silicon Valley Community Foundation
grant from the Yerba Buena Stanford University
Thank you to the members of the Model Community Benefit District
Places Urban Design Working Group. Additional funding provided by
Fund for the Environment and Urban
Life, Microsoft, Seed Fund, Stripe, Uber
Technologies, Wells Fargo and AECOM.
DANIE DRANKWALTER
Fifty years from now, everyone can

find a place to live in the Bay Area.
We value long-time residents and
welcome newcomers from around the
world. We protect what is precious
and still find ways to grow. We grow
by making great places for people to
live and work.
What Will Life Be Like
in the Year 2070?
In these pages, we envision a Bay Area where:
Everyone is housed and has access to quality public amenities.
People of color are safe and welcome in streets and public spaces.
Commuters have time for family and community life.
Elders get out and about with family and friends, aging in community.
Kids walk to school together, expanding their sense of self and sense of place.
Teens set off on bikes or on foot to creeks, lakes, beaches and parks.
All kinds of families, in all types of homes, live in community together.
The SPUR Regional Strategy provides What we see ahead is a hopeful

a civic vision for the Bay Area’s next picture — if those of us who live
half century and a policy road map and work in the Bay Area can come
for how to get there. While the other together to make, and accept, real
reports in the initiative lay out policy change.
recommendations for making change,
Model Places is a project to envision For SPUR’s guiding principles on
what those outcomes would look and where growth should go, see our
feel like, how they would play out in report A Civic Vision for Growth at
all the different kinds of places where spur.org/civicvisionforgrowth. The
people live and work. complete library of Regional Strategy
reports is available at spur.org/
regionalstrategy/reports
RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON
RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON
ISHITA JAIN
A Better Future for
the Bay Area
RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON
Today, the Bay Area is The six Model Places described here If we continue the current trajectory
demonstrate that, if each place does of inaction, housing prices will
home to 7.6 million people,
its part, the Bay Area has plenty of continue to soar, pushing more people
in 2.8 million housing room to grow while preserving open into grinding commutes to sprawling
units and 3.7 million jobs. space and addressing its protracted suburbs or out of the region entirely.
But over the next 50 housing shortage. This report also But if we are willing to manage
shows how accommodating new growth as a matter of urgent public
years, these numbers are
growth can enable existing areas to interest, we can serve those who are
expected to increase by as become better places for people, here and welcome those who are
many as 4 million people retaining many of their essential yet to come while making the region
and 2 million jobs. qualities while supporting diversity more livable, more sustainable and
and inclusion, public health, green more equitable. This will require every
mobility and community life. place in the Bay Area to do its part.
The growth we project over the next

half century — up to 79% in housing
units and 57% in jobs — is daunting,
but the pace (44,000 housing units
annually) has been achieved here
before. This report explores what it
would take for the Bay Area to do it
again.
1
The Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy provided SPUR with population and job projections as detailed in its report High and Low Projections of Jobs and
Population for the Bay Area to 2070: Projection Framework, Specific Assumptions and Results. That report includes a high growth projection and a low growth projection based on
national projections for jobs and population as well as assumptions about immigration, growth in various economic sectors and the share of the population and job growth that the
Bay Area will attract. SPUR has chosen to base its analysis on the high growth projection in order to determine the number of housing units needed to meet population growth. The
housing analysis was conducted by the Concord Group for SPUR.
SPUR’s Regional Strategy Values:
Stewardship:
We are all responsible for this beautiful place, for one

another and for future generations. All of us deserve
clean air, clean water, good health and safety from
climate threats.
Cooperation:
The Bay Area communities are all in this together. Most

of our toughest problems – from housing to traffic to sea
level rise – demand regional collaboration.
Equity:
Justice is an essential element of a stable, healthy society,

and systemic racism requires a systemic response. Policy
is a critical tool in this effort.
Prosperity:
A thriving economy is essential to provide both jobs and

public resources. We must not take our prosperity for
granted.
Leadership:
Time and again, the Bay Area has pioneered influential

ideas and new solutions. Now more than ever, we should
be a model to the nation and the world.
Place Types
Key findings:
This report examines how The analysis incorporated five • Roughly 84% of the land in the
variables: residential density, job nine-county region is in rural and
each place type might help
density, intersection density, surface open space or agriculture. Twenty-
accommodate the region’s permeability and land use mix. Next, six percent of that land is already
projected growth. SPUR a cluster analysis identified natural protected as parks or habitat.
developed this “place groupings of like conditions in the
data, and each square was assigned • About 75% of the urbanized
types” analysis by dividing
to one of 14 place types. land lies in primarily single-
the nine-county Bay Area family residential neighborhoods,
into a grid of half-mile These categories cover all of the land representing 69% of the region’s
in the nine-county Bay Area, from
squares and assigning data total housing stock.
urban downtowns to undeveloped
on land use and physical open space, providing a physical • The kinds of dense, mixed-use areas
conditions to each.2 portrait of the region. Once place that support walking and high-
types were defined, demographic, quality transit make up only 1% of
transportation and other information the urbanized area but are home to
were mapped onto them to create a 5% of residents and 29% of jobs.
quantitative and spatial portrait of the
• Nearly 22% of the urbanized area
region’s communities and ways of life.
(or nearly 250 square miles) is made
SPUR’s projections assumed that up of low-density commercial types,
growth would not be permitted in areas ripe for transformation given
open spaces, which provide essential the right polices.
ecological, recreational and hazard-
mitigation services.
Urbanized land area

(2017)
Land area
(2017)
Population distibution
(2017)*
Jobs
(2015)
2
This methodology was based in part on work by the Regional Plan Association of New York. For more detail on the analysis, see https://www.spur.org/publications/
urbanist-article/2019-03-01/bay-area-place-types.
9
Sonoma Napa
Solano
Marin
Contra Costa
San Francisco
Distribution of Place Types in

the San Francisco Bay Area
Alameda
Cultivated Land
Rural & Open Space
Parks & Protected Areas
Suburban Edge
Cul-de-Sac Suburbs
Small-Lot & Streetcar Suburbs
Industrial & Infrastructure San Mateo
Santa Clara
Office Parks
Job Centers
Urban Job Centers
Urban Neighborhoods
Dense Urban Mix
High Rise Neighborhoods
San Francisco Job Core
0 5 10 20
N MILES
AECOM for SPUR
In this report, six contrasting Open Space
place types (noted with blue
numerals) are reimagined
as Model Places showing
different strategies for
how each might grow, look
and feel over 50 years of
transformation.
Cultivated Land Rural & Open Space Parks & Protected Areas
Primarily in the North Spread over half the Widely distributed; includes
and far East Bay; includes region; includes rangeland, federal, state, regional and
vineyards, orchards and other working lands and city parks and protected
other crops. rural settlements. habitat.
8.5% of total land area 53.6% of total land area 22.2% of total land area
1.2% of total housing 7.8% of total housing 4.5% of total housing
0.8% of total jobs 2.7% of total jobs 2.0% of total jobs
Primarily Housing
1 2
Suburban Edge Cul-de-Sac Suburbs Small-Lot & Streetcar

Suburbs
Very low-density housing; Low-density housing;
single-family homes at the rings the center of almost Medium-density housing;
edge of open space. every city in the region. mostly in older San
Francisco, East Bay and
Peninsula neighborhoods.
7.0% of total land area 4.0% of total land area 0.9% of total land area
19.9% of total housing 30.9% of total housing 14.6% of total housing
9.0% of total jobs 10.9% of total jobs 5.2% of total jobs

11
Primarily Jobs
3 4
Industrial & Infrastructure Office Parks Job Centers Urban Job Centers
Very low concentration of Low concentration of Medium concentration High concentration of

jobs; large, low buildings jobs; one- to three-story of jobs; multistory jobs; minimum 10-story
with few intersections. buildings in suburban commercial buildings in offices in job centers and
settings for office, retail many cities. large cities.
and other jobs.
2.8% of total land area 0.6% of total land area 0.2% of total land area 0.1% of total land area
9.1% of total housing 2.9% of total housing 1.2% of total housing 0.8% of total housing
25.4% of total jobs 15.6% of total jobs 8.2% of total jobs 5.6% of total jobs
Mixed Uses
5 6
Urban Neighborhoods Dense Urban Mix High Rise Neighborhoods San Francisco Job Core
Multifamily housing; high Residential and job Multistory housing and Highest concentration
concentration of retail and towers; San Francisco and some jobs on small blocks; of jobs in the region;
jobs; San Francisco and Oakland only. San Francisco only. downtown San Francisco
Oakland only. only
0.1% of total land area 0.02% of total land area 0.02% of total land area 0.01% of total land area
4.2% of total housing 1.2% of total housing 1.4% of total housing 0.3% of total housing
2.3% of total jobs 4.8% of total jobs 1.2% of total jobs 6.3% of total jobs
AECOM for SPUR

Illustrative Futures
This report allocates the Bay Place Types Today few large ones? Do its streets and
Area’s projected growth to the blocks support walking and public
Each discussion of a Model Place
different place types according to a transit, or would that require major
begins with a profile of existing
combination of factors, including the interventions? What sorts of changes
conditions, including the place type’s
proportion of each type’s existing are most reasonable and would have
total land area, population and jobs,
land area, housing and job supply, the most impact in this place? With
and performance metrics including
its environmental and transportation these principles in mind, a program
Walk Score and transportation mode
performance and its relative capacity of development, public realm
share. A description of its physical
for transformation.3 improvements, and transportation
form, building stock and overall assets
and environmental interventions
The growth assigned to each place and challenges sets the context for
is presented and quantified while
type can easily be translated into the the strategies that might best shape
architectural renderings and
average growth that each half-square- its growth and evolution. illustrations suggest how these
mile grid cell of that type would need changes might look and feel.
to accommodate in order to provide
Place Types of Tomorrow
housing and jobs without sprawling In all cases, the intent is to imagine
into the region’s open space or An idealized vision for each model these places growing more
displacing low-income residents. For place is then presented, based on welcoming, inclusive and humane,
each of the Model Places presented a set of key design principles that meeting people’s needs not simply for
here, one idealized grid cell is shown are targeted to its particular assets shelter and mobility but for belonging
as it might develop according to the and challenges. Does this place and connection to one another and to
specified urban design strategies. consist of many small parcels or a the natural world.
Walking and Driving: How Each Place Type Performs

Average drive alone rate and Walkscore by place type
100
Cl Cultivated Land
Ro Rural & Open Space
80
Pp Parks & Protected Areas
Se Suburban Edge
Cs Cul-de-Sac Suburbs
60
Sc Small-lot & Streetcar Suburbs
Ii Industrial & Infrastructure
40 Op Office Parks
Jc Job Centers
Uc Urban Job Centers
20 Un Urban Neighborhoods
Du Dense Urban Mix
Hr High Rise Neighborhoods
Sj San Francisco Job Core
Cl Ro Pp Se Cs Sc Ii Op Jc Uc Un Du Hr Sj
3
Each place type’s appropriate “share” of the region’s growth is necessarily a normative decision. For more information Average drive alone rate
on the analysis, see https://www.spur.org/publications/urbanist-article/2019-03-01/bay-area-place-types Walkscore
AECOM FOR SPUR 13
A Conundrum: Where For example, the “urban The distribution of growth in

neighborhoods” place type has this study strives to balance the
Should Growth Go? some of the lowest rates of driving importance of growth in the most
Because most of the Bay Area’s but represents only 0.6% of the efficient and sustainable locations
growth occurred after World War region’s urbanized land. Cul-de-sac with the imperative that every part of
II, most of our built environment is suburbs, by contrast, are highly auto- the region do its part to address our
designed around the car. Places that dependent but occupy more than 40 urgent housing shortage. Although
support walking, biking and public times the land area. Small changes the growth is apportioned as an
transit are quite scarce. Though good to these very large areas can have a average amount for each grid cell of
land use planning would direct as significant impact on housing supply a given type, in practice it would vary
much growth as possible into these while improving their environmental according to the context, with policies
high-performance settings, the performance and welcoming new and incentives directing more growth
region’s vast swaths of low-density residents. to areas served by transit. To illustrate
development must also be part of the the region’s abundant capacity, the
solution. future conditions in this document’s
imagery show more than the average
growth required.
Growth Projections by Place Types

Housing units
77.5%
total increase in
2017
housing units (2070)

2070
2.84MM
housing units (today)
+2.2MM Share of
new housing units (2070) growth
Jobs
57.3%
total increase in
2015
jobs (2070)
2070
3.66MM jobs (today)

+2.1MM new jobs (2070*) Share of
growth
AECOM for SPUR

Diverging Fortunes: Others have suffered waves of neglect, The Metropolitan Transportation
Economic and Racial disinvestment and pollution driven Commission has designated equity
by inequitable policies, from racial priority communities based on a
Inequities Within Place covenants to redlining to exclusionary variety of factors related to race,
Types zoning. These divergent fortunes have poverty and housing challenges4.
This document deals primarily compounded across generations, Using these designations, this
with how different place types can with affluent white families able to document emphasizes public
accommodate a meaningful share borrow, invest and pass wealth and investment and housing stabilization
of the region’s projected growth opportunities to their children and strategies in economically
through improved physical planning grandchildren while marginalized marginalized communities so that
and urban design. Because of the Bay communities see their fortunes new growth and investment can
Area’s severe housing shortage, this diminish. benefit low-income residents rather
report places a strong emphasis on than driving displacement.
Although the physical solutions to
housing growth and the public realm
growth under these diverging fortunes The state of California has defined
improvements that make increases in
may be similar (we need housing other places as high-resource areas,
density livable.
everywhere; we all benefit from which “according to research, offer
While housing growth is essential to walkable streets and green space), the low-income children and adults
addressing the region’s affordability policies that will deliver these changes the best chance at economic
crisis, it does not occur in a vacuum in a socially restorative manner may advancement, high educational
but in real communities that have differ considerably. With that in attainment, and good physical and
been shaped by inequitable histories. mind, this document recommends mental health.” These are generally
Although the places considered here policies that differ according to the more affluent areas with access
share common physical patterns that socioeconomic conditions of the place to high-quality schools and jobs.
reflect similar origins, in many cases in question. It draws on two economic For these areas, this document
they have had very different economic and social designations developed recommends the liberalization of
and demographic trajectories, often by regional and state agencies — restrictive zoning coupled with
accompanied by racial segregation equity priority communities and mechanisms like impact fees and
and other forms of injustice. high-resource areas (see below) — inclusionary zoning to translate high
to highlight two extreme kinds of market value into affordable housing
Some areas have thrived, supported settings, understanding that there is a and a more diverse population.
by a range of policies and investments. full spectrum between them.
% of each place type in Equity Priority Communities or High-Resource Areas
Cultivated Land
Rural & Open Space
Parks & Protected Areas
Suburban Edge
Cul-de-Sac Suburbs
Small-lot & Streetcar Suburbs
Industrial & Infrastructure
Office Parks
Job Centers
Urban Job Centers
Urban Neighborhoods
Dense Urban Mix
High Rise Neighborhoods
San Francisco Job Core HRA
0 20 40 60 80 EPC
4
https://mtc.ca.gov/sites/default/files/Equity_Priority_Communities.pdf
15
Sonoma Napa
Solano
Marin
Contra Costa
San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
Santa Clara
HRA
EPC
0 5 10 20
N MILES
AECOM for SPUR
1
ARTHUR MOUNT
Cul-de-Sac
Suburbs
In 50 years, the Bay Area’s cul-de-
sac suburbs complete the transition
from a car-dependent monoculture
to a network of diverse, inclusive
neighborhoods.
ISHITA JAIN
Cul-de-Sac Suburbs Today
One of the region’s most widespread place types,
built for the car and an idealized nuclear family
Cul-de-sac suburbs are These suburbs were designed Over time, these neighborhoods can
around a mid-20th-century ideal of add a range of services and housing
traditional auto-oriented the nuclear family — two parents types and offer alternatives to driving
residential areas that (a male breadwinner and a female while also retaining much of their quiet
began to be built after homemaker), several children and residential character.
perhaps a pet. The physical expression
World War II. of this ideal was codified by zoning
They consist almost exclusively laws, homeowners’ associations
(HOAs) and restrictive covenants, Assets
of detached, single-family houses
at low densities. The wide streets many of which were explicitly designed • Detached homes with yards
to filter out people of color, extended • Quiet, spacious character
are designed in a hierarchy
families (more typical of immigrant • Orientation to some types of
(local, collector, arterial), with
groups) and people of modest means. family life
few intersections and points of • Meets some cultural ideals/
connection. Sidewalks are limited Although these discriminatory lines
aspirations
or absent. All of this results in an have blurred over time, the continued
environment that may be serene and practice of banning apartments,
quiet but does not support access cottages and major alterations keeps Challenges
by walking, cycling or transit. Even a powerful social barriers in place.
• Car-dependent
minor errand (the proverbial quart of • Small, individually owned parcels
In recent decades, the suburbs have
milk) requires a car trip. • One housing type designed for just
become much more diverse but still do
one family type
not readily accommodate the empty
• Limited services, amenities and
nesters who cannot age in place,
transit
childless couples who want a modest • Resource-inefficient, hard to service
home, multigenerational families or • Limited connectivity and walkability
unrelated adults looking for affordable
homes and a sense of community.
20.3% 48.8 290.5 879,000

transit accessible walkscore square miles housing units
across place-type place-type average 25.8% of urbanized Bay Area 30.9% of regional housing (2017)
71% 2,549,598 400,000

average drive alone rate people jobs
place-type average 33.4% of total Bay Area (2017) 11% of regional jobs (2015)
21
Current
Napa
conditions:
Foster City
Sonoma
Hayward
Solano
Marin
Walnut Creek
Contra Costa
San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Distribution of Cul-de-Sac Suburbs place
type in the San Francisco Bay Area
Total Bay Area
Urbanized Bay Area
Cul-de-Sac Suburbs
0 5 10 20
MILES N
AECOM for SPUR
Cul-de-Sac Suburbs Tomorrow
From homogeneity to diverse,
inclusive neighborhoods
Fast-forward 50 years: 1 2
While the quiet character
remains, retirees, young Streets for Neighborhood
adults and others have People Hubs
moved into a diversified
Twentieth-century residential Suburban residential subdivisions
housing stock, and basic streets are often much wider than tend to have just one or two ways in
services are available necessary, with sweeping curves or out where they connect to larger
and other features that encourage streets and other uses like retail,
within a short walk or
speeding and present safety hazards. services and restaurants. These access
bike trip. New forms of Some lack sidewalks entirely. locations often take up larger parcels
transportation provide Streets could be repurposed and of land and could be redesigned as
roadways narrowed to provide neighborhood activity hubs. While
real alternatives to the car,
community amenities and green most would support only limited
while paths and greenways space while improving safety and retail, these hubs could complement
connect to a regional preventing stormwater runoff. The and enrich community life and provide
Dutch woonerf, or shared street, a destination by foot or bike. They
trail network for both
provides a useful model. Neighbors might include:
commuting and exploring on a common street could come
• Modestly denser housing for a
the outdoors. Kids and together to identify priorities (such
as playgrounds, gardens or barbecue variety of populations
seniors are out on local
areas) that could make better use
streets, which have been • Shuttle service to regional transit
of these low-demand rights-of-way
reclaimed as green spaces. while allowing slow vehicular access. • Multipurpose community centers
• A café or convenience store
• Coworking or remote office spaces

Precedent: Portland Infill Housing Precedent: Re-Oaking Silicon Valley, SFEI
• Medical, dental, wellness, child care
and other services
23
30
of total increase in housing units (2070)
%
8
of total increase in jobs (2070)
%
879,000 housing units (today) 400,000 jobs (today)

+655,000 new housing units (2070) +160,000 new jobs (2070)
3 Focus: Equity 4 Focus: Ecology 5

Diverse Homes for Neighborhood Focus on
Diverse Households Nature Access
Today, most of these neighborhoods The low density and spaciousness of These neighborhoods were designed
are zoned exclusively for detached cul-de-sac suburbs creates oppor- for cars, so a meandering path to the
single-family homes, privileging a tunities to integrate ecological pro- exit is no big deal. But for those on
narrow range of households. Young cesses into the landscape. Greenery foot, the lack of connectivity is pun-
people, multigenerational families has always been part of the suburbs’ ishing, even if a destination is nearby.
and the elderly are not well served. appeal, but often in a resource-inten- In many cases, a small opening in the
Loosening restrictive zoning could sive form like front lawns. Through lot pattern could dramatically short-
allow and encourage: incentives, standards and education, en travel distances, and improving
the suburban landscape could be connections to nearby trails and bike
• Accessory dwelling units (ADUs) retooled to provide greater ecologi- routes could open a wealth of active
within or next to primary residences. cal functions, require less water and transportation and recreational op-
These could serve a young family less maintenance and expand an of- tions. If kids can walk to school and
member, aging parents and ten-limited aesthetic. Elements might residents can conveniently stroll to
caregivers, or be rented out to include: the store, important climate and pub-
tenants as a source of income, with lic health benefits can follow. Steps
little impact on the character of the • “Re-oaking” or otherwise rein- might include:
neighborhood. troducing native species in both
private and common landscapes, • Identifying parcels where openings
• “Missing middle” housing (two to six providing habitat for native birds, would have the greatest impact,
units) and townhouses through the mammals and invertebrates such as the end of cul-de-sacs or
redevelopment of a single parcel or parcels that back onto subdivision
the consolidation of a few adjacent • Increasing tree canopy coverage in walls or external streets
parcels. narrowed roadways and along wide
streets • Creating a right of first refusal for
• Modest apartment buildings on the city or HOA to acquire the
larger parcels that often exist at • Restoring waterways from culverts, property at sale, or using zoning
subdivision edges and entry points. ditches and channels into swales or incentives to encourage the
These could serve as affordable and creeks, supporting both water property’s redevelopment with
housing, workforce housing or quality and public amenities through-access
senior housing that would allow
people to age in the community, • Depaving overbuilt streets to in- • Repurposing medians, berms and
freeing up larger homes. crease green space and permeable buffer landscapes as paths and
surfaces and reduce heat islands trails for cyclists and pedestrians to
• Right-of-way width reductions to and stormwater runoff access the regional network
accommodate new housing.
AECOM for SPUR
Illustrative example of
Cul-de-Sac Suburbs Place Type
Hard to Serve
Today
Given the low densities
Designed for Cars, Not Walking and long distances, public
services like water, power,
The street network has few intersections, sewer, road maintenance
many dead ends and only a couple of and transit are expensive
ways in or out, making it very hard and inefficient.
to walk or cycle through.
They All Look the Same
Houses are mostly all one size and one

type, designed around a traditional
0.
nuclear family structure rather 5m
than the diverse households of the i.
Bay Area.
Tomorrow
250
new jobs and services
A Node at the Edge
At points of entry, lots are a bit bigger
and host a mix of neighborhood services
and amenities. Assisted living allows
residents to age in the neighborhood.
A shared community space, café,
shops, day care, health care and
gym are within walking distance,
and autonomous shuttle
stops serve regional
transit stations.
+3 miles
green trails
0.
A Regional Trail 5m
Buffer landscaping has been turned i.
into a path for walking and biking,
which connects to a regional trail
with access to the bay and other
destinations. More trees and shade
are provided through a community
re-oaking program. UR
r SP
fo
M
CO
AE
25
+900 Average increase required to

support growth
new housing units
Missing Middle Housing
+563 +137
average increase in average increase
With exclusionary zoning lifted, a
housing units per in jobs per square
variety of housing types become square half-mile half-mile
possible.
*The image to the left represents considerably
more growth than the average, for illustrative
purposes. Within each place type, growth should be
concentrated in areas served by transit.
Key Policies
Every
800ft~ • Eliminate single-family zoning

regionwide.
• Allow and incentivize homeowners to

Pedestrian Access
build ADUs and smaller developers to
A few key lots have been
redeveloped with pedestrian provide “missing middle” housing that
passages when the owners were complements the neighborhood.
ready to sell. Now, instead of going
the long way around, kids can walk • Review and revise fire access codes to
to school and older folks have easier reduce street widths.
access to the community center.
• Allow and encourage narrow, slow and
shared-function streets.
• Identify key parcels to allow

pedestrian through-access upon sale
or redevelopment.
• Limit water use in landscaping. Provide

education and incentives for native
and drought-tolerant plantings.
• Zone for denser, mixed development

at the edges, oriented around
gathering spaces and transit.
• Provide or facilitate autonomous

electric shuttle loops between
+20%
residential suburbs and regional transit
stops.
backyard homes
Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs)
Small units are tucked into the
backyards and garages of up to
20% of the neighborhood homes,
increasing housing access and
affordability with little change to
the neighborhood character.
AECOM for SPUR
Cul-de-Sac Suburbs tomorrow
A shared street: Neighbors have taken over the street
to create play space for kids and a place to gather,
exercise and stroll. Cars move through at a slower pace,
between native plantings and permeable swales.
27
AECOM for SPUR

ARTHUR MOUNT
29
AECOM for SPUR

2
RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON
Small Lot
and Streetcar
Suburbs
In 50 years, small lot and streetcar
suburbs retain their walkable
character, while new residents allow
the neighborhood to support even
more amenities.
33
DANIE DRANKWALTER
AECOM for SPUR

Small Lot and Streetcar
Suburbs Today
Built before the car, these neighborhoods have
great fabric and diverse communities
Small lot and streetcar neighborhoods good places to grow. policies that enable longtime residents
Additional residents will support — particularly people of color — to
suburbs are older, transit, retail and amenities, resulting remain and thrive.
moderate-density residen- in walkable neighborhoods that
tial neighborhoods that allow for a relatively low-emissions
lifestyle. But these can also be difficult
were built in the region’s places to change because residents’
core before the mass satisfaction often comes with a
Assets
adoption of the automobile; political resistance to any alterations • Walkable streets with diverse
to the character of the place. Large building stock and housing types
they were often oriented buildable parcels are scarce, and it • Diverse communities with deep local
around streetcar or connections
can be expensive to build in such a
• Commercial districts and larger
commuter rail lines. highly constrained setting.
parcels along key corridors
• Attractive to new residents and
Although most of the streetcar Socially and economically diverse,
builders
lines are gone, many of these these areas endured some redlining
• Good transit access
neighborhoods are quite walkable and disinvestment in the 20th century,
and still well served by public transit. then rebounded and became more
desirable. Their relative scarcity Challenges
They tend to have a street grid and
relatively small blocks and lots. While combined with high demand means • Scarce in number; subject to
single-family homes are generally the that many of these neighborhoods gentrification and cost increases
have experienced gentrification • Small, individually owned parcels
most common building type, these
and the associated pressures of • Political skepticism toward change
areas also include a mix of small
displacement, higher housing and growth
apartment buildings (two to four • Somewhat car-dependent
units) and some commercial uses, costs and cultural change. It is thus
especially along major streets. particularly important that growth in
these neighborhoods be informed by
These features make these
64.9% 74.1 64.2 415,700

55% 1,092,757 189,800

place-type average 14.3% of total Bay Area (2017) 5.2% of regional jobs (2015)
35
Current
conditions:
Napa
East Oakland
Sonoma
Palo Alto
Solano
Marin
Willow Glen
Contra Costa
San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Distribution of Small Lot & Streetcar
Suburbs place type in the San
Francisco Bay Area
Total Bay Area
Urbanized Bay Area
Small-lot & Streetcar Suburbs
0 5 10 20
MILES N
AECOM for SPUR
Small Lot and Streetcar
Suburbs Tomorrow
Build upon current assets and grow and diversify
housing, ensuring that existing residents benefit
from growth while amenities and transit improve
Fifty years from now, 1

small lot and streetcar
suburbs welcome many Incremental Infill
more residents into a
wider range of housing The block and lot pattern of the and encourage other transportation
streetcar suburb is an irreplaceable modes.
types, local services, transit asset, one that supports walking
options and open space. while allowing for a mix of uses • Allow a mix of uses, including small
that can evolve over time. Growth commercial services, live-work
Small parcels and walkable spaces, cultural uses and retail.
should be maximized in these areas
blocks provide an ideal so that more people have access
• Allow consolidations of a few
framework for a community to the local amenities and can live
lots (two to three parcels), but
built densely enough to a healthier lifestyle. New buildings
not large-scale erasure, to enable
should be thoughtfully inserted into
meet basic needs on foot the urban fabric, complementing
greater density while preserving the
fine-grained pattern.
and bike. These areas still (not imitating) what came before.
provide abundant green On adjacent corridors:
Within residential blocks:
space while retaining the
• Allow significant height increases
traditional fabric of some • Eliminate single-family zoning
and limit parking.
to allow a range of building
of the best periods of Bay and unit types, from ADUs to • Allow a mix of denser affordable
Area development. “missing middle” buildings (two and market-rate housing, office and
to six units) to smaller apartment retail.
buildings.
• Encourage storefront retail and
• Eliminate parking requirements flexible uses that can activate the
to facilitate growth through ground floor.
“missing middle” development
37
30
%
6
%

2 Focus: Equity 3
An Equity Stake Streets for People Precedent: Woonerf, The Netherlands
In equity priority communities, Although these street networks

policies should be enacted to are often conducive to walking, the
ensure that long-standing residents, streets themselves are generally
especially those with low incomes, designed primarily to move traffic
can remain in place if they choose. and store cars. As densities increase
Strategies could include: in these areas and transportation
options change, valuable street space
• Nonprofit acquisition of existing could be reclaimed for playgrounds,
apartments with low-income gardens and dog runs, retaining slow
tenants to make the units vehicular access and improving safety.
permanently affordable Imagine kids having the run of the
neighborhood and older folks sitting
• Acquisition of land for future
outside in new street gardens.
affordable housing development
• Temporary street reconfigurations Precedent: Superille, Barcelona
• Assessments on newly developed
using parking and simple barricades
or “flipped” parcels to finance
could limit and slow through traffic
public realm improvements,
and test new configurations and
amenities and community services,
activities based on community
as well as a low interest home-
priorities.
improvement/ADU loan fund
• Community residents could have
• Down-payment assistance to aid
a role in directing how the public
existing renters in purchasing their
improvement funds raised by new
homes
development are spent and in
• Community-driven decisions on ensuring that improvements are
public realm investments funded serving local needs.
by new development
• Shared/slow streets, based on
• Preferential access for longtime the Dutch woonerf and Catalan
renters to new affordable units superilles models, could convert
conventional neighborhood streets
into community assets that help
lower temperatures and reduce
stormwater runoff and heat.
AECOM for SPUR

Illustrative example of Small Lot
& Streetcar Suburbs Place Type
Car-Heavy Streets
Today
Though neighborhood
Good Bones streets are not very busy,
most of their space is
The street grid and small parcels make devoted to cars.
these places walkable and interesting.
They can readily absorb growth and
serve more people.
Commercial Corridors
Most of these areas include one or

more large commercial streets (often
former streetcar lines) with transit 0.5
service, bigger parcels and some retail. mi
.
Tomorrow
Transit-Oriented
Development
TOD
activity nodes
Commercial Corridors
Former streetcar lines allow
for larger buildings and a mix
of uses, supporting walkable
retail and offering transit
connections to the broader
region.
CHOICE
new housing units
Many Ways to Grow Within the Pattern
Lots of building types have grown here
over 50 years, significantly increasing the
0.5
density while keeping the block and lot mi
pattern largely intact. ADUs, two- to six- .
unit “missing middle” housing and small
apartment buildings are tucked throughout
the neighborhood. In a few places, adjacent
parcels have been combined to allow more
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+3 miles
pedestrian & bike priority Average increase required to
support growth
A Shared Street
Where they used to focus on the
movement and storage of cars, +2,526 +517
neighborhood streets now make average increase in average increase
density more livable, with playgrounds housing units per in jobs per square
and gardens in the rights-of-way. Car square half-mile* half-mile
access is still allowed but at a walking
pace. It is safe, enjoyable and healthy
more growth than the average, for illustrative
to walk or bike to local shops and purposes. Within each place type, growth should be
public transit. concentrated in areas served by transit.
Key Policies
GREEN SPACE • Eliminate single-family zoning
parks & gardens regionwide.
Community Benefits of Growth • Allow (and encourage) narrow, slow

Policies to stabilize housing have and shared-function streets.
allowed longtime residents to stay,
and some of them have received • Stabilize housing for low-income
support to acquire their homes residents with policy that supports
or add additional units. New just cause eviction, anti-gouging and
development and parcels that turn
nonprofit acquisition of housing.
over are assessed fees that are used
to pay for green space that the • Create an Assessment/Community
community chooses.
Benefit District funded by new
developments and properties that are
sold.
• Disseminate Benefit District funds

through participatory budgeting,
a democratic process which allows
community members to decide how to
spend part of a public budget.
• Create and implement a Section

8 accessory dwelling unit (ADU)
program in low-income areas.
• Eliminate parking requirements.
• Limit parcel consolidation to allow

intensification within the existing
fabric.
INVESTMENT
• Allow taller buildings with flexible
ground-floor uses in transit corridors.
new schools & facilities

Community Benefits of Growth
New growth has spurred the
creation of new schools and
community centers, which serve all
neighborhood residents. AECOM for SPUR
Small Lot and Streetcar Suburbs tomorrow
A commercial corridor: This thoroughfare — originally a
streetcar line — is a return to form, with bigger buildings
that support walkable retail and transit connections to
the broader region.
41
AECOM for SPUR

RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON
43
AECOM for SPUR

3
RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON
Industrial &
Infrastructure
In 50 years, industrial and
infrastructure spaces are smarter,
denser and greener, adapted to
climate hazards and preserved as
working land.
NIK RICHARD
47
Industrial and
Infrastructure Today
These places provide accessible jobs and economic
diversity but face environmental challenges
This place type represents Industrial and infrastructure areas Assets

generally consist of inexpensive
the lowest density among single-story buildings with substantial • Source of low- and middle-skilled
areas with jobs and jobs
paved surfaces for parking, staging,
• Abundant, underutilized, flexible
includes land used for storage and logistics areas. Many
and often affordable land
of these lands have experienced • Large lots often under single
transportation and utility environmental pollution that can be ownership
infrastructure. It is most difficult and expensive to remediate. • Wide range of economic and
often found along the logistical support functions
A significant number of low- and
bay’s edge, where it was middle-skilled jobs are located
built on filled baylands here, contributing to the region’s Challenges
economic diversity and equity. In
near highway and freight- • Low densities
many areas, industrial lands face • Often vulnerable to coastal/
rail infrastructure. As a economic pressure to convert to groundwater flooding and sea level
result, it tends to occupy other, higher-value uses such as rise
housing or commercial office space. • Car-dependent; not served by
low-lying areas that will
But once that conversion happens, it transit
be subject to regular or can be difficult to replace the flexible • Very limited amenities and services
permanent flooding with economic resource that industrial • Large paved areas that produce
lands offer, especially in the region’s heat and stormwater runoff
sea level rise. • Environmental pollution
core.
25.9% 37.8 203.9 257,000

across place-type place-type average 18.1% of urbanized Bay Area 9% of regional housing (2017)
69% 706,455 930,000

49
Current
Napa
conditions:
Emeryville
Sonoma
Fremont
Solano
Marin
Antioch Bayshore
Contra Costa
San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Distribution of Industrial &
Infrastructure place type in the San
Francisco Bay Area
Total Bay Area
Urbanized Bay Area
Industrial & Infrastructure
0 5 10 20
MILES N
AECOM for SPUR
Industrial and
Infrastructure Tomorrow
To address pressure from both climate hazards and
conversion to other uses, industrial land will need to get
smarter, denser and greener
In the future Bay Area, new 1 2 Focus: Equity
multilevel facilities accom-

Maintaining the Green, Equitable
modate clean industrial and
logistics activities, support-
Industrial Land Industries
ed by state of-the-art tele- Supply The Bay Area is already a leader
communications, energy and in a variety of green technologies,
Cities need space for logistics, including solar power, batteries and
distribution systems. storage, distribution and electric vehicles (EVs). In addition,
manufacturing, including uses and advanced manufacturing provides
With new technologies limiting noise
activities that are not compatible a bridge between the burgeoning
and pollution impacts, productive
with residential housing because of technology sector and traditional
activities need not be separated from
noise or emissions. Industrial areas industrial activities. Continued
other functions. Fossil fuels — and the
also provide jobs at the lower end investment in industrial uses could
industries that move, store and refine
of the wage scale, helping a diverse help the region address many of its
them — have been phased out, and
workforce remain in the region. pressing problems by developing new
the movement of goods throughout
Both sea level rise and the market’s solutions in green energy, mobility
the region has been electrified. Eco-
demand for housing put pressure on and housing. Prefabricated housing,
district systems bring new efficiency
industrial land, which is difficult to for example, could provide good
to energy, water and transportation
replace, especially in the region’s core low- to middle-skilled jobs while also
functions. Green infrastructure and
near key infrastructure for moving improving housing affordability.
floodable basins absorb stormwater
goods. Converting the industrial land
runoff, while the advancing waters
supply to urban uses like housing
of the bay are managed through a
should be limited to areas with
mixture of retreat, consolidation,
exceptional regional transit access.
protective structures and ecological
restoration.
Precedent: Prologis, California Precedent: Rolls Royce Factory, UK

51
9
%
24
%

3 4 Focus: Ecology 5 Focus: Ecology
Industrial Layer in Environ- District-Scale Envi-

Activities mental Services ronmental Systems
With a limited supply of industrial Industrial lands often make extensive The combination of large parcels
land in a growing region, industrial use of space, with large low- and few owners could make it easier
functions will need to use space slung buildings and paved areas. to develop efficient solutions to a
more efficiently. This could happen These represent opportunities to number of environmental challenges.
through changing technologies (as incorporate environmental services Eco-districts could combine
exemplified by the containerization if the appropriate incentives can be numerous systems at this scale,
of ports in the past, or more developed. Examples might include: including:
compact wastewater facilities in the
future), automation and/or supply • Scalable solar energy production • Stormwater management through
chain innovations that reduce space on industrial buildings through green infrastructure
needs. The transition to multistory third-party providers. Incentives
and regulatory streamlining could • Parking and transportation
industrial warehousing is already
support this initiative at a large demand management (TDM) at the
happening in numerous space-
scale. district scale
constrained cities globally.
• Green stormwater management • Green energy production and

Reducing the actual footprint
through landscaping, swales and resilient micro-grid distribution
and building impact of industrial
facilities could be key to adapting infiltration basins that capture
• District heating, cooling and co-
to sea level rise, allowing for a runoff from the large impermeable
generation
recovery of low-lying industrial surfaces. Appropriate incentives
areas and the managed retreat through the Regional Water Quality • Solid waste composting and
from rising waters at key locations. Control Boards could be integrated recycling
Such strategies could complement with site remediation and shoreline
projects like restoring the baylands, adaptation processes
protecting or reconstructing
public infrastructure and providing
shoreline access and recreational
resources.
AECOM for SPUR

Illustrative example of Industrial
& Infrastructure Place Type
A Diverse Range of
Jobs and Industries
Today
Industrial areas offer
Lots of Parking relatively inexpensive land
that supports a diversified
Industrial areas are largely impermeable, economy, essential
contributing to surface runoff and excess support functions and
heat. lower-skilled jobs.
Low-Density and Low-Lying
Industrial areas are especially

prominent in low-lying areas near
transportation infrastructure at the 0.5
bay’s edge, exposing them to coastal mi
.
and groundwater flooding due to sea
level rise. Low densities don’t always
justify big resilience investments.
Tomorrow
RESILIENCE
Bay restoration
Adapting to Sea Level Rise
Developed areas have been
consolidated behind a
protective levee, with some
land restored as wetlands and
other habitat.
TRANSPORT
green transport
Goods Movement Cleanup
Climate and air quality imperatives, 0.5
along with improvements in mi
.
technology, have moved trucks and
freight rail to electric and hydrogen
power, sparing nearby communities
the pollution and noise that have
historically impacted low-income
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53
INNOVATION
new manufacturing Average increase required to
support growth
Building Up
With land at a premium in a growing
region, some industrial and logistics +221* +588
facilities have gone vertical, taking average increase in average increase in
advantage of new technologies and housing units per jobs per square half-
building types to do more with less square half-mile* mile
space.
GREEN more growth than the average, for illustrative

energy efficient
Green Infrastructure
Energy, heat, waste materials Key Policies
and parking are all managed
at the district scale. Extensive • Coordinate investment in adaptation
paving has been broken up with measures, consolidating land
the introduction of swales, rain behind levees and protecting critical
gardens and floodable basins in the
infrastructure.
landscape. All of this prevents urban
runoff pollution, moderates heat • Prevent the loss of industrial land to
and complements wild habitats.
housing and commercial uses, except
near major regional transit stations.
• Convert goods movement and

manufacturing to electric and/or
hydrogen power as part of the effort
to make the Bay Area fossil-free.
• Use incentives and regulatory tools

to promote solar energy production,
green stormwater management,
and energy, heat and materials
management within districts.
• Invest in industrial efficiency and green

manufacturing, including batteries,
solar and wind equipment, clean
vehicles and low-carbon cement.
• Ramp up modular housing through

code reform and collaboration with
building and construction trade
NEW HOMES
unions.
prefab housing
Employing Solutions
Large-scale off-site housing production *required housing units not shown in this specific
provides good union jobs while helping example where industrial land use remains industrial
the region meet its ambitious housing
goals.
AECOM for SPUR
Industrial & Infrastructure tomorrow
Automated Shuttles: Workers manage a high-performing industrial
hub with electrical goods movement and autonomous systems. An
industrial ecosystem manages energy, water, heat and waste for
maximum fossil-free efficiency.
55
AECOM for SPUR

RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON
57
AECOM for SPUR

4
ARTHUR MOUNT
Office Parks
In 50 years, office parks are job
centers, enlivened by better transit
access and an infusion of housing,
services and green space.
ISHITA JAIN
Office Parks Today
Built around the car, these often-
nondescript workhorses are ripe for
transformation
Low-density commercial Office parks are car-dependent. Assets

Large, inward-facing parcels make • Abundant, underutilized land
areas that were typically walking or cycling difficult, and with • Large lots under single ownership
developed near freeway or no nearby housing or amenities, there • Flexible and standardized
arterial intersections, office is little reason to try. • Open to change
parks play an important Large paved areas contribute to both

role in the region’s stormwater runoff and increased Challenges
temperatures. While a few of these
economy. But they were • Car-dependent; poorly served by
places are distinctive and iconic transit
built for another age and corporate campuses, most are not • Isolated and inward-facing
have negative impacts — and therein lies an opportunity. • Single-use, with few amenities and
The fact that these large parcels are services
on our environment and • Large paved areas that produce
under single ownership means that
transportation system. big changes can happen quickly to heat and contribute to runoff
Generally consisting of transform staid office buildings with
new uses and activities that reduce
large one- to two-story
car trips and make better use of the
buildings surrounded by land.
surface parking, these
areas reflect the bygone
expectations of postwar
suburbia.
55.5% 52.1 42.5 83,000

65% 206,858 572,000

63
Current
conditions:
North Bayshore
Sonoma Napa
Hacienda Business Park
Solano
Marin
North First Street, San Jose
Contra Costa
San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Distribution of Office Parks place
Total Bay Area
Urbanized Bay Area
Office Parks
0 5 10 20
MILES N
AECOM for SPUR
Office Parks Tomorrow
The suburban workplace, brought
to life by an infusion of housing,
services and green space
Office parks retain the 1 2

flexible, low-cost office
buildings that businesses Introducing Clusters of New
rely on, but add in New Uses Activities
complementary new
Office parks have traditionally been Defining a clear center begins the
uses and activities that designed for privacy and the protec- process of organizing activities and
enhance their economic tion of ideas and innovation, but these functions in these areas. Things like
large single-use areas make inefficient a shuttle stop near an attractive
and environmental
use of land and have created long, gathering space and a café located
performance. A variety of polluting commutes for many. Intro- near a building entrance could
housing types introduce ducing complementary uses could gradually expand to include bike-
increase both daytime and nighttime share stations, child care facilities,
evening and weekend
activities and make it possible for retail and dining. Clusters of uses
populations, allowing new more people to live closer to work. that support people’s daily lives
amenities to thrive. Dining could draw workers and residents
• Cities should zone for and incentiv- to these hubs, which in turn would
and services cluster near ize a diverse range of housing types support new commercial activities
shuttle stops, serving both in employment zones. that locate there.
workers and residents and • Adding housing to an existing job • Even a very small hub, if well
eventually justifying rapid center creates day and night popu- designed and located, offers
transit links to the regional lations and helps to support retail, people a place to meet, talk and
transportation and public space. interact.
network. Parking, once
the predominant land use, • A variety of workplace types — ver- • The more activities and paths of
tical buildings, retail and live-work travel converge there, the more
is gradually relocated to spaces — can complement tradition- distinct a place becomes.
the outskirts while large, al large-floorplate offices.
contiguous parcels allow • This center should be visible and
• Cities should encourage or require accessible to the public, even
for district-level, optimal employee amenities like restaurants, if located on private property.
environmental systems. gyms and laundries to serve the Secure workspaces can still remain
public. secure.
• Schools, child care, libraries and

senior services could be designed to
benefit both employees and resi-
dents.
65

5 %
15
%

3 4 Focus: Ecology 5
Phase in Mobility District-scale Envi- Building
Solutions ronmental Systems Bridges
New and denser uses would require Large parcels allow for efficient Office parks have generally turned
less parking and proactive mobility solutions to numerous environmental inward, separated from their
management. People should be able challenges. Eco-districts could neighbors through parking and
to get around via shuttles, bikes, operate systems that work well at this buffers. As the mix of uses and
micro-transit and walking, and denser scale, including: amenities evolves, these places could
uses could eventually justify connec- become more accessible and inviting
tions to regional transit. • Stormwater management through by:
green infrastructure
• Peripheral parking lots and tem- • Forging connections to regional
porary structures could free up • Parking and transportation demand transit that serves both local and
core areas, and autonomous tech- management surrounding users
nologies could reduce the need to
• Green energy production and • Converting landscaped buffers to
locate parking near buildings.
resilient micro-grid distribution usable open space that connects to
• A Transportation Management As- regional trails
• District heating, cooling and co-
sociation (TMA) representing multi-
generation • Turning ditches and culverts into
ple employers could fund, manage
and price parking, carpooling and environmental and open space
• Solid-waste management
shuttle systems. assets
• A critical mass of land uses could • Welcoming neighbors while

eventually justify bus rapid transit protecting secure private spaces
(BRT) or other transit systems.
Precedent: Box, Redwood City Precedent: Samsung, San Jose
AECOM for SPUR

Illustrative example of Office
Park Place Type
Today Lots of Free Parking
Big paved areas use land

A World Apart inefficiently, worsen heat
impacts and urban runoff — and
Isolated from neighboring uses are only accessible by car.
by walls and buffers, office parks
are busy during work hours and
empty at other times.
A Pedestrian’s Nightmare
Each big lot is built to face

inward. Connections and
crossings are limited. 0.5
mi
.
Tomorrow
Transit-Oriented
Development
TOD
regional connectivity
Transit Opportunities
A mobility hub brings shuttles,
dropoffs and, eventually, public
transit into the heart of the site,
helping to support a new, compact
urban center.
NEW
environmental systems
District Utility Networks
With a few large parcels, a lot of 0.5
things can happen at the district scale. mi
.
Green energy production and micro-
grid distribution, green stormwater
infrastructure and district heating and
cooling closer to net-zero and even net-
positive sustainability.
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+1,200 Average increase required to

support growth
new housing
Homes for All
+632 +1,808
average increase in average increase
Residential buildings have been housing units per in jobs per square
added to underutilized sites. square half-mile* half-mile
They are both market-rate and
subsidized, serving workers, families *The image to the left represents considerably
and seniors. more growth than the average, for illustrative
URBAN HUB Key Policies
a new center • Zone for a mix of uses at increased

Activity densities, including housing, retail and
Services are concentrated at a office space.
small central hub. Dining and retail
are supported by shuttle stops • Enable a flexible range of workplaces,
and community services like child from live-work spaces to incubators,
care. Paths and trails radiate out coworking spaces, campuses and office
to jobs, housing, open space and
surrounding neighborhoods. towers, allowing companies to grow and
evolve.
• Eliminate parking requirements in

favor of aggressive, districtwide
transportation demand management.
Emphasize regional transit, carpooling,
district shuttle services and micro-
transit.
• Institute environmental performance

standards promoting environmentally
efficient development.
• Provide a range of housing types at all

income levels.
-70%
surface parking areas
District Parking at Margins
Instead of shaping this place, parking
serves it. Parking supply is managed
and moved to peripheral locations as
higher densities support shuttle and
transit options. AECOM for SPUR
Office Parks tomorrow
A place for people: Moving parking to the edges
makes streets safe and quiet for pedestrians and bikes.
Automated shuttles provide internal circulation and
regional transit connections.
69
AECOM for SPUR

ARTHUR MOUNT
71
AECOM for SPUR

5
ISHITA JAIN
Urban
Neighborhoods
In 50 years, Urban Neighborhoods
offer eclectic vitality free from traffic
and rich with texture, amenities and
community life.
DANIE DRANKWALTER
Urban Neighborhoods Today
Offering the best of city life, these neighborhoods face
increasing income inequality, displacement pressure and
negative impacts from cars
In the Bay Area, the “urban With immense assets, these areas Assets
also face significant challenges. They
neighborhoods” place type is saw significant disinvestment and • Walkable street and lot pattern
found only in San Francisco • Mix of uses at densities that support
decline during the latter half of the
public transit
and Oakland. In many 20th century, worsened by redlining
• Excellent transit access
that kept communities of color from • Services and amenities within
ways, these neighborhoods building wealth and by misguided walking distance
embody the core advantages policies that put cars before people. • Diverse communities with deep
of city living: walkability, In recent years, these once-neglected local connections
neighborhoods have rebounded, • Attractive to new residents and
diversity, sustainability and and rents have soared, impacting builders
convenience. longtime residents who ought to
Their layered, mixed character reflects

benefit from new investment. These Challenges
vulnerable populations are most
waves of transformation over more • Subject to gentrification,
severely impacted by the pollution,
than a century. Nearly all are well displacement and rising housing
noise and dangers of car traffic. Such costs
served by public transit and offer all environments can be unwelcoming
the needs of daily life within walking • Small, individually owned parcels;
for children and older adults, resulting few large opportunity sites
or biking distance. Built around the in a skewed population that often • Political skepticism of change and
pedestrian, these are some of the consists of affluent young people growth
only places in the region that are and low-income families and doesn’t • Impacted by traffic and parking
dense enough, even today, to enable reflect the full diversity of the region. • Lack of access to housing,
residents to go car-free. opportunity, education and services
for many residents
100% 95.2 7.2 118,500

29% 231,978
people
83,500
average drive alone rate jobs
3.0% of total Bay Area (2017)
place-type average 2.3% of regional jobs (2015)
77
Current
conditions:
Hayes Valley
Sonoma Napa
Adams Point
Solano
Marin
Contra Costa
San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Distribution of Urban Neighborhoods
place type in the San Francisco
Bay Area
Total Bay Area
Urbanized Bay Area
Urban Neighborhoods
0 5 10 20
MILES N
AECOM for SPUR
Urban Neighborhoods
Tomorrow
In 2070, Urban Neighborhoods offer
community, eclecticism and vitality —
and many fewer cars
Communities are supported 1
with the services and
Welcoming Growth
infrastructure they need,
especially those whose
to the Urban Core
residents are most vulnerable The block and lot pattern of this Within residential blocks:
and at risk. Streets designed place type is an irreplaceable asset.
Growth should be maximized in • Liberalize zoning to allow a range of
for people, not cars, these areas so that more people building and unit types, from ADUs to
encourage walking, biking can live a healthy, low-emissions small apartment buildings to mixed
lifestyle. New buildings should be towers near transit nodes.
and other alternatives to
artfully inserted into the urban
the automobile. Public fabric. Because the fundamentals
• Eliminate parking requirements for
new buildings to facilitate growth
space is oriented toward the will persist even with significant
and encourage other modes of
community, with funds from increases in density, buildings need
transportation.
not match or imitate what came
new development leveraged before. This context lends itself to • Allow a mix of uses, including small
to support community- variety and eclecticism. commercial services, live-work
selected projects and spaces, cultural uses and micro-retail.
improvements. Development • Allow small consolidations of two
focuses on key corridors and to three parcels, but not large-scale
routes to allow for rail and erasure, to enable greater density
bus connectivity, enabling On adjacent corridors:

easy access to jobs and the
• Allow significant height increases and
rest of the Bay Area. limit parking.
• Support a mix of denser affordable

Precedent: Woonerf, The Netherlands Precedent: Superille, Barcelona
and market-rate housing, office and
retail.
• Encourage street-fronting retail and

flexible uses that can activate ground
floors.
79

7 %
5
%

2 Focus: Equity 3 4
Diversity & Afford- Reinforcing Space for
ability Protected Transit Communities, not Cars
In equity priority communities, pol- Urban neighborhoods are generally Urban neighborhoods already have the
icies should be enacted to ensure connected to reliable, high- ingredients of sustainable cities, but
that long-standing residents, espe- frequency transit. In immediate despite high marks in public transit avail-
cially those with low incomes, can station areas, significantly higher ability and environmental performance,
remain in their homes if they choose densities — including some high-rise they are heavily impacted by the car. The
and can benefit from neighborhood buildings — should be encouraged. spaces currently used to move and store
investment. Strategies could include: cars could be repurposed to make these
• Buildings should be designed to neighborhoods safer and more comfort-
• Nonprofit acquisition of exist- activate street frontages with able for people of all ages and abilities.
ing apartments with low-income ground-floor retail, professional
tenants to make the homes perma- services, child care, gyms and • Residential streets could be converted
nently affordable housing for all income levels. to “car-light” zones, modeled on Dutch
woonerven or Barcelona’s superilles,
• Acquisition of land for future af- • Key streets could be incrementally in which vehicle access is permitted
fordable housing development pedestrianized to create public at a walking pace but the right-of-
space at station entrances. Events, way serves a variety of uses, including
• Assessments on newly developed markets and festivals could be playgrounds, seating and gardens,
or “flipped” parcels to finance pub- used to activate these areas. improving both community and
lic realm improvements, amenities
environmental conditions.
and community services • Cultural uses like museums,
galleries and performance spaces, • Parking requirements could be
• A low-interest home-improvement/ along with bars and restaurants, eliminated, and parking discouraged
ADU loan fund could reinforce neighborhood or prohibited in new development.
identity in these locations and Over time, as transit improves and
• Down-payment assistance to help
extend active hours. new technologies and micro-mobility
renters buy their homes
become widespread, existing parking
• Building heights and densities
• Community –driven decisions on could be converted to new uses, such as
should increase in proximity to
public realm investments funded additional housing and green space.
stations, with particular care paid
by new development
to the transition from residential • In transit station areas, some streets
• Preferential access for longtime blocks into station areas. could be pedestrianized over time
renters to new affordable units to create car-free hubs of retail,
commercial and civic activity.
• Protections for existing renters,
including anti-gouging laws, just-
cause eviction and other policies
AECOM for SPUR
Illustrative example of Urban
Neighborhoods Place Type Limited Public Space
With some exceptions,

Today public space is limited to a
few heavily used parks. The
Underutilized urban fabric built environment fails
to put the safety and
Walkable and well served by comfort of people and
transit, this type should be communities first.
available to more people.
Car-Heavy Streets
Some of the only neighborhoods in the

region that are dense enough today to
0.5
allow a car-free life are heavily impacted mi
.
by traffic and parking.
Tomorrow
Transit-Oriented
Development
TOD
regional access
The Station Hub
Density increases around
the rail station, and car-
free streets host markets
and other events.
Retail and restaurants
are complemented
by cultural venues,
child care and other
community services.
LESS TRAFFIC 0.5

high Walk Score mi
.
Car-Light and Car-Free

The neighborhood is safer, cleaner and
quieter, with “car-light” zones allowing
for slow access. The emphasis is on green UR
SP
space, playgrounds and walking. Denser fo
r
M
transit hubs are simply car-free. CO
AE
81
HOUSING OPTIONS Average increase required to

support growth
new residential units

Affordability, Diversity, and Growth +5,425 +3,746
Policies to stabilize housing have average increase in average increase
let longtime residents stay, and a housing units per in jobs per square
square half-mile* half-mile
large segment of new growth is
permanently affordable housing.
New development helps pay for more growth than the average, for illustrative
green space that the community purposes. Within each place type, growth should be
helps to create. concentrated in areas served by transit.
WALKABILITY
Key Policies
• Eliminate single-family zoning

new residential units throughout the region.
The Right Place To Grow
People living here drive less, walk • In consultation with neighborhood
more and show the region what residents, designate safe/slow and
an urban future can look like. The shared-function streets.
neighborhood has welcomed more
people while safeguarding its • Stabilize housing for low-income
assets — walkability, diversity and residents, with protections like just
character. A wide range of building cause eviction, anti-gouging laws and
types have been tucked into the
existing fabric while preserving the nonprofit acquisition of housing.
block pattern and historic building • Establish a community amenity fund
stock.
for green space financed by new
development.
• Support design approaches that

acknowledge, complement and
enhance each neighborhood’s unique
assets.
• Eliminate minimum parking

requirements.
• Permit the consolidation of a few

parcels to enable pockets of higher-
density, multifamily housing where
possible.
OPEN SPACE
accessible green
The Public Realm
A continuous network of public
spaces, including streets, plazas,
gardens and parks of all sizes, makes
density comfortable and connects
communities with local services and
amenities.
AECOM for SPUR
Urban Neighborhoods tomorrow
People First: With few cars around, residents and
commuters can walk around the transit hub safely,
accessing a wide range of services easily.
83
AECOM for SPUR

ISHITA JAIN
6
RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON
Dense Urban Mix
In 50 years, Dense Urban Mix districts
are bustling and accessible 24-hour
destinations.
NIK RICHARD
89
AECOM for SPUR

Dense Urban Mix Today
With the best transit access in the region, these
places enable everyone to leave the car behind
The Bay Area’s dense urban Well served by rapid transit, these Assets
places feature a wide range of
neighborhoods lie at the culture, retail, hospitality, jobs and • Walkable urban block pattern
economic and cultural • Excellent transit
housing. Major parades, festivals and
• High commercial and residential
heart of the region and at protests happen here. Contemporary
density, with diverse building stock
structures coexist with historic and housing types
the crossroads of major buildings and beloved civic spaces, • Destinations for shopping, culture
transit systems. They offer a and a dense mix of buildings meets and nightlife
bustling and cosmopolitan the street. Local mobility options • A draw for visitors from the region
include excellent public transit, bikes, and the world
mix of jobs, cultural activity, taxis, scooters and, above all, walking. • Civic identity; a site for major
nightlife and shopping, But there are downsides: A significant gatherings
• Dense enough to function without
along with housing at high low-income population calls these
cars
areas home, and many unhoused
densities in a mix of old and people have landed here as well.
new buildings. These places These places can only thrive if the Challenges
are positioned to thrive at needs of all people are met.
• Heavily impacted by traffic and car-
very high densities, but to oriented planning
• Persistent poverty among some
unlock their potential, we resident populations
must put people, not cars, • High numbers of unhoused people
first.
100 89.9 1.7 34,500

20% 53,551 177,000

91
Current
conditions:
Napa
Market and Van Ness
Sonoma
Downtown Oakland
Solano
Marin
Contra Costa
San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Distribution of Dense Urban Mix place
Total Bay Area
Urbanized Bay Area
Dense Urban Mix
0 5 10 20
MILES N
AECOM for SPUR
Dense Urban Mix Tomorrow
Bustling, 24-hour
destinations for everyone
These places — just a few in 1 2

the region — can embrace
the kind of dazzling vertical Beyond the Car High-Performance
density seen in New York Public Space
or Tokyo, with tall towers,
These places lie at the crossroads of These places must be built for
bright lights and bustling the region’s rapid transit networks, crowds, from the subway platform
crowds of pedestrians and more than anywhere else, they to the sidewalk to the civic plaza
could evolve beyond dependence to the roof terrace. Sustained
around the clock. This
on the private car. Underground investment is necessary to support
density is supported subway and regional rail put these a dense urban core, as is active
by a world-class public neighborhoods in easy reach, engagement to manage, program
making driving an expensive and and maintain it. Collaboration
realm, with well-managed
illogical choice. Over time, we could among public agencies — transit
streets, plazas and station build on this by: providers, city governments and
concourses and a multilevel community benefit districts (CBDs)
• Phasing private cars out of — will be instrumental in the
network of pedestrian most streets in favor of mass evolution of these neighborhoods.
connections. Offerings big transit, micro-transit, bikes and
investment in the public realm
and small, from food stalls
to marketplaces to shops of • Gradually converting parking
every sort, enliven the area. garages to other uses while
transit centers, autonomous
Culture and arts abound, vehicles and ride-hailing services
from top-notch theater to reduce the need for cars and
buskers and dance clubs, parking structures
and the Bay Area’s rich

tapestry of cultures is on
display. Locals and visitors
alike come here to see and
be seen, to take part in the
life of the city.
93

3 %
8
%

3 Focus: Equity 4 5 Focus: Ecology
Lifting Bold, Exuberant Urban Green

Everyone Up Density Heart
Vertical density is expensive and Although many parts of the Bay These are constructed
reflects the tremendous value of Area call for a delicate, balanced environments and can feel like
transit-rich land at the core. A approach to growth, these transit- the antithesis of nature, but they
portion of the high returns that are heavy districts thrive on vertical have an important role to play in a
possible here should be captured density and big-city character. sustainable urban region.
to provide permanently affordable Valuable historic buildings should
housing and social services to be preserved and integrated, but • In per capita emissions, these are
people in need, many of whom otherwise the sky is the limit. But among the most environmentally
made a home in these inner-city tall is not enough — these districts efficient places in the world.
locations when others fled for the should pulse with life, with active
• Cars could be almost completely
suburbs. Inclusionary zoning and frontages on multiple levels, bright
eliminated here.
density bonuses are important lights and a mix of culture, dining
policy levers in this context. and entertainment 24 hours a day. • Green roofs and walls, street
Supportive housing, navigation trees, terraces and other features
centers and social services, could mitigate heat and runoff
supported by a mix of public, while beautifying the urban
private, and philanthropic funding, experience.
could ensure that everyone,
regardless of income, has a place
to call home.
Precedent: Times Square Pedestrian Plaza Precedent: Shibuya, Tokyo Precedent: Piccadilly Circus, London
AECOM for SPUR

Illustrative example of Dense
Urban Mix Place Type
20th Century Hangover
Today
Traffic-heavy streets,
Excellent Transit garages and freeways, along
with buildings that do not
Here more than anywhere in the support street life, reflect an
region, the rapid transit network antiquated period
makes the car unnecessary. of city planning.
Urban Blocks &

Layers of Buildings
Many of the fundamentals

of city life can be found
here. The streets and blocks 0.5
support walking, and the mi
.
buildings present rich layers
of urban history.
Tomorrow
24/7
activity and services
Serious Density
At this transit crossroads, towers of all
sorts host every conceivable activity,
with shopping, culture and nightlife
backed by hotels, offices, homes
and essential services, such as
health care, education and
child care, for those who
live and work here.
CIVIC
high walkscore
People First
Cars are not practical, and streets
0.5
have been reclaimed as civic spaces mi
.
at the heart of a comprehensive
public realm. Streets and plazas hum
with life, and at these densities, small
businesses thrive, whether they’re
located underground or several
floors up. UR
r SP
fo
OM
A EC
95
-60%
carbon reduction
Average increase required to
support growth
Green Spaces Go Vertical +9,396 +25,252

Beyond the inherent efficiencies average increase in average increase
of this compact setting, green housing units per in jobs per square
square half-mile* half-mile
roofs, walls and streets soften
public spaces while providing
environmental benefits. more growth than the average, for illustrative
-90%
Key Policies
• Continue to invest in multiple rapid

parking structures transit systems, along with local
transit and complementary bus,
Converted Garages
shuttle and ride-share services.
With parking less relevant than
ever, garages have been either • Encourage vertical density, with basic
redeveloped or repurposed as
form and tower separation controls.
mobility, logistics and delivery
centers, art spaces or rooftop parks. • Institute inclusionary zoning and
assessment districts to provide
permanently affordable housing with
comprehensive services for vulnerable
populations.
• Activate ground floors and upper
floors with a variety of public-serving
spaces.
• Encourage small retail and food
service uses in transit and plaza
spaces.
• Support the conversion of parking
garages into other uses, such
as offices, community facilities,
entertainment and cultural venues,
and even housing.
Transit-Oriented
Development • Eliminate parking requirements for
new buildings.
TOD • Phase out private cars and ride-hailing

services from the busiest streets.
regional access
• Establish assessment districts funded
Transit Galore by new development to support
The region’s highest density of
transit options supports retail, the investment and management of
restaurants, culture and services public spaces.
accessible to all.
AECOM for SPUR
Dense Urban Mix tomorrow
A Civic Place: Buzzing with activity at all hours, these
districts draw people from around the region and around
the world into the spectacle of urban life. The best transit in
the region allows them to be virtually car-free.
97
AECOM for SPUR

99
RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON

A Call
to Action
DANIE DRANKWALTER
This investigation shows This is a 50-year vision — one that The proposals here represent the
many of us won’t be around to see. It physical expression of a new social
that the Bay Area has the
shows that, far from being “one size compact. One in which we as a region
space to accommodate fits all,” growth can be responsive, commit ourselves to collectively
the growth expected in the building on the best aspects of tackling the formidable and entangled
next half century without the region we know today, while challenges of housing, transportation,
addressing many of its shortcomings equity and climate change.
paving over open space
and inequities.
and farmland — but only if What this document doesn’t do is
we are willing to embrace It may be tempting to compare this show us how we get there. That
real change. vision to the Bay Area as we know will require profound changes in
it today. Instead, we must compare policies, practices, laws and culture.
it what would happen with 50 more Other reports in the SPUR Regional
years of business as usual: more Strategy are building out this policy
uncoordinated growth, an even roadmap, with clear recommendations
greater housing shortage, further targeting specific agencies and
segregation by race and privilege, actors. The complete library of
worse traffic, and far more people left Regional Strategy reports is available
behind, priced out or homeless. We at spur.org/regionalstrategy/reports.
must do better. That research addresses how to:
101
ISHITA JAIN
Make equity a core principle, Scale up affordable housing and Design communities for people, not
investing in health, safety and support middle-income housing, with for cars, prioritizing human safety,
stable housing so low-income robust funding for acquisition and health, comfort and community over
communities and people impacted new development of permanently the movement and storage of private
by systemic racism can stay in their affordable units and policies that vehicles.
neighborhoods and benefit from support workforce housing.
growth. Build complete communities that
Create new mechanisms to fund and support daily life, with work, school,
Allow housing to be built in deliver the changes we need, with shopping and recreation accessible to
a lot more places, eliminating major governance innovations in the many more people by foot and bike.
exclusionary zoning, allowing for a delivery of infrastructure, housing and
wide range of housing types, and community development. This isn’t about changing one thing
making it easier to build housing in — it’s about making a series of
urban areas and near transit. Invest in a 21st-century transportation related changes, at different levels of
system, including rail networks, government, over many decades. It’s
Reinvent how and what we build, regional express bus and streets that never easy for societies to commit to
bringing down costs through truly prioritize cycling and walking massive change, especially when they
innovations like secondary units, in neighborhoods and transit station can’t see ahead to the outcome. We
“missing middle” housing, modular areas. hope Model Places gives a glimpse
manufacturing and mass timber of what’s possible and inspires a
construction. commitment to what’s needed.
AECOM for SPUR

San Francisco | San José | Oakland
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through research, education and advocacy.
We are a member-supported nonprofit organization.

Join us.
Ideas + action for a better city

spur.org

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SPUR REPORT

Envisioning a future Bay Area with

Fifty years from now, everyone can

Everyone is housed and has access to quality public amenities.

Commuters have time for family and community life.

All kinds of families, in all types of homes, live in community together.

The SPUR Regional Strategy provides What we see ahead is a hopeful

RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON

RYAN FLOYD JOHNSON

The growth we project over the next

We are all responsible for this beautiful place, for one

The Bay Area communities are all in this together. Most

Justice is an essential element of a stable, healthy society,

A thriving economy is essential to provide both jobs and

Time and again, the Bay Area has pioneered influential

Urbanized land area

Distribution of Place Types in

1.2% of total housing 7.8% of total housing 4.5% of total housing

0.8% of total jobs 2.7% of total jobs 2.0% of total jobs

Suburban Edge Cul-de-Sac Suburbs Small-Lot & Streetcar

19.9% of total housing 30.9% of total housing 14.6% of total housing

9.0% of total jobs 10.9% of total jobs 5.2% of total jobs

Very low concentration of Low concentration of Medium concentration High concentration of

AECOM for SPUR

Walking and Driving: How Each Place Type Performs

A Conundrum: Where For example, the “urban The distribution of growth in

Growth Projections by Place Types

housing units (2070)

3.66MM jobs (today)

AECOM for SPUR

% of each place type in Equity Priority Communities or High-Resource Areas

20.3% 48.8 290.5 879,000

71% 2,549,598 400,000

Total Bay Area

Urbanized Bay Area

• A café or convenience store

• Coworking or remote office spaces

879,000 housing units (today) 400,000 jobs (today)

3 Focus: Equity 4 Focus: Ecology 5

They All Look the Same

Houses are mostly all one size and one

+900 Average increase required to

800ft~ • Eliminate single-family zoning

• Allow and incentivize homeowners to

• Identify key parcels to allow

• Limit water use in landscaping. Provide

• Zone for denser, mixed development

• Provide or facilitate autonomous

AECOM for SPUR

AECOM for SPUR

AECOM for SPUR

64.9% 74.1 64.2 415,700

55% 1,092,757 189,800

Urbanized Bay Area

Small-lot & Streetcar Suburbs

Fifty years from now, 1

415,700 housing units (today) 189,800 jobs (today)

In equity priority communities, Although these street networks

AECOM for SPUR