The Big One Research
The Big One Research
The Big One Research
According to my research the Philippines ranks third worldwide with the largest disaster
risk (WorldRiskIndex 2012). The geographic and geologic settings of the Philippines
expose it to different natural hazards including earthquakes. Experts have studied
numerous earthquake sources in and around Metro Manila, and among these faults, the
West Valley Fault System is predicted to have the largest impact on Metro Manila should it
generate a large earthquake. The Marikina Valley Fault System also known as the West
Valley Fault System is the biggest fault line system in Metro Manila. The 90-kilometer fault
runs from the Angat reservoir in Bulacan through Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Makati,
Taguig, Muntinlupa, Rodriguez Rizal, Cavite and ends in Calamba, Laguna .
Local government units (LGUs) in Bulacan province were warned not to be confident with
their regular earthquake drills and should also consider more devastating danger should
the “The Big One” happens. The 49-year-old Angat dam is under rehabilitation and
strengthening since last year under the operation of Angat Hydro Corp. The governor has
asked dam engineers to give him regular updates on the ongoing repair of the dam.
“The Angat main dike axis is right on the recently confirmed Marikina Valley system fault.
The main dike straddles the fault, which stretches from Taal lake area to Angat river. The
dike has one of the steepest slopes in the world. Seepage has been observed right after its
construction. The design criteria for the dam, particularly for seismicity, may not be
sufficient considering the latest requirements for design codes and regulations .” At the
time, the governor said, he revealed that the aging Angat dam is like the proverbial sword
of Damocles hanging over the heads of Bulakenyos.
While Manila is now preparing for the Big One earthquake of the Marikina West Valley
Fault, the proposed 60-meter Kaliwa Dam will be constructed within a zone of two active
tectonics represented by the Philippine Fault Zone and the Valley Fault System. The Agos
Dam site is located only 7-8 kilometers from the Philippine Fault Zone (Infanta Fault). In
case an active fault is nearby the proposed dam site, two major problems can occur and will
greatly affect the design of the proposed structures, namely: 1.) seismicity caused by the
earthquakes occurring in active fault zone; and 2.) deformation in dam-foundation caused
by the movement of active faults. Most of the proposed dam sites would be subject to high
peak acceleration and are exposed to generally high degree of seismicity.
Many of them are anxious and believe that the destruction that a dam break would cause is
highly unimaginable. Once it breaks, voluminous amount of water will come down
cascading like bullets carrying with them huge boulders, cut logs and other debris to the
lowlands that will eventually end up in Manila Bay. The authorities have estimated that at
least 38,000 would die in the National Capital Region (Metro Manila) once The Big One
strikes.