COVID-19 Outbreak in Middlecity: Population Outcome Graph

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9/9/21, 11:02 AM COVID-SIM Run Simulation | Ask A Biologist

COVID-19 Outbreak in Middlecity


Population Breakdown, Day 364
Starting Population: 12,500,002

Vaccinated* 74.01%
Dead 0.03%
Recovered 3.27%
Uninfected 22.3%

9,251,632 people 3,605 people 408,216 people 2,787,705 people


Currently Exposed** Currently Asymptomatic Currently Symptomatic Currently Hospitalized
0.19%
0.14%
0.03%
0.03%

23,344 people 18,034 people 3,389 people 4,085 people

Population Outcome Graph

100%

80%

60%
Percentage

40%

20%

0%
0 70 140 210 280 350
Time (days)

Day 364
Starting Population: 12,500,002

Total Vaccinated 76.58%


Total Dead 0.03%
Total Recovered 3.27%
Total Exposed 3.69%

9,569,660 people 3,605 people 408,216 people 461,722 people


Total Asymptomatic Total Symptomatic 0.7%
Total Hospitalized 0.42%
Vaccine Herd Immunity
2.81%
87,660 people 52,551 people Threshold

350,640 people (none)

When the number of people who are vaccinated is higher than the herd immunity line (threshold), the population is protected
by vaccine-induced herd immunity.

Unfortunately, for this level of vaccination coverage, this population will never reach vaccine-induced herd immunity.

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Safety Measures Implemented


Surgical masks active day 8-365, 70% effective, 10% compliance.

Distancing active day 5-365, 100% effective, 10% compliance.

9,569,660 (76.58%) of people in your city were vaccinated by the end of the year (0.4% daily vaccination rate).

Vaccine Statistics
The number of people an infected person is likely to infect after vaccinations (R naught): 1.04

Daily vaccination rate: 0.4%


Vaccine waning rate (loss of vaccine-induced immunity): 0%
Vaccine effectiveness: 50%
Vaccine safety: 99.99%

COVID-19
Full name: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2

COVID-19 is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Symptoms include fever or chills, tiredness,
body aches, headache, sore throat, loss of taste or smell, and digestive issues. More severe cases can also show trouble
breathing, chest pain, confusion, and problems staying awake. Older adults and those with other health problems are at the
greatest risk. COVID-19 spreads more easily than flu and can lead to more serious illness in those who catch it. The best ways
to fight the spread of the disease include taking precautions when outside of your home by social distancing, wearing a mask,
and washing your hands often. Everyone who can should also get vaccinated against the disease to help slow or stop the
pandemic.

The number of people an infected person is likely to infect (Base R naught): 2.07
Proportion of illnesses that are asymptomatic: 80%
Proportion of illnesses that are symptomatic: 20%
Hospitalization rate for those who show symptoms: 16.67%
Death rate per day for those who are hospitalized: 0.95%
Death rate per day of those who show symptoms: 0.06%
Daily recovery rates for:
Infected people who show no symptoms: 20%
Infected people who show symptoms: 10%
People who are hospitalized with severe infection: 12.5%

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Table Data
Starting Population: 12,500,002

Display: Weeks | Months

Per day numbers for: A = Asymptomatic S = Symptomatic H = Hospitalized R = Recovered D = Dead


Day A S H R D Day A S H R D
0 0 2 0 0 0 196 1,946 375 391 16,311 132
7 1 0 1 2 0 203 2,295 441 464 19,886 162
14 1 0 1 4 0 210 2,688 516 546 24,092 197
21 2 0 0 7 0 217 3,128 600 639 29,005 238
28 3 1 1 12 0 224 3,616 693 742 34,708 286
35 5 1 1 18 0 231 4,153 795 856 41,283 342
42 7 1 1 28 0 238 4,739 906 982 48,817 405
49 10 2 2 42 0 245 5,374 1,027 1,120 57,395 479
56 14 3 3 62 1 252 6,056 1,156 1,268 67,099 562
63 20 4 4 90 1 259 6,782 1,293 1,427 78,009 655
70 27 5 5 128 1 266 7,549 1,438 1,596 90,200 760
77 37 7 7 181 1 273 8,351 1,590 1,775 103,738 878
84 50 10 9 253 2 280 9,183 1,746 1,961 118,681 1,008
91 67 13 12 349 3 287 10,036 1,907 2,154 135,074 1,151
98 89 17 16 478 4 294 10,903 2,069 2,351 152,952 1,308
105 117 23 22 648 5 301 11,774 2,232 2,552 172,330 1,479
112 152 30 29 871 7 308 12,639 2,394 2,753 193,209 1,663
119 196 38 37 1,161 9 315 13,487 2,552 2,952 215,573 1,862
126 252 49 48 1,533 12 322 14,306 2,704 3,147 239,384 2,074
133 320 62 61 2,009 16 329 15,087 2,849 3,335 264,587 2,300
140 403 78 77 2,611 20 336 15,816 2,984 3,513 291,106 2,539
147 503 98 97 3,368 27 343 16,485 3,107 3,680 318,849 2,790
154 624 121 121 4,311 34 350 17,084 3,216 3,832 347,702 3,052
161 769 149 150 5,477 44 357 17,602 3,311 3,968 377,539 3,324
168 939 181 185 6,908 55 364 18,034 3,389 4,085 408,216 3,605
175 1,139 220 225 8,651 69
182 1,371 264 273 10,760 87
189 1,639 316 328 13,292 107

Vaccine Science (https://askabiologist.asu.edu/explore/vaccines) | Ask A Biologist (https://askabiologist.asu.edu) | Arizona State University


(https://asu.edu)

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