Mark Scheme (Provisional)

Summer 2021

Pearson Edexcel International Advanced Level

In Statistics S2 Paper WST02/01
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Summer 2021
Question Paper Log number P63151A
Publications Code WST02_01_2106_MS
All the material in this publication is copyright
© Pearson Education Ltd 2021
 General Marking Guidance

• All candidates must receive the same

treatment. Examiners must mark the first candidate in
exactly the same way as they mark the last.
• Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates
must be rewarded for what they have shown they can do
rather than penalised for omissions.
• Examiners should mark according to the mark
scheme not according to their perception of where the
grade boundaries may lie.
• There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the
mark scheme should be used appropriately.
• All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be
awarded. Examiners should always award full marks if
deserved, i.e. if the answer matches the mark
scheme. Examiners should also be prepared to award zero
marks if the candidate’s response is not worthy of credit
according to the mark scheme.
• Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will
provide the principles by which marks will be awarded and
exemplification may be limited.
• When examiners are in doubt regarding the
application of the mark scheme to a candidate’s response,
the team leader must be consulted.
• Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the
candidate has replaced it with an alternative response.
 EDEXCEL IAL MATHEMATICS

General Instructions for Marking

1. The total number of marks for the paper is 75.

2. The Edexcel Mathematics mark schemes use the following types of marks:

• M marks: method marks are awarded for ‘knowing a method and attempting to
apply it’, unless otherwise indicated.
• A marks: Accuracy marks can only be awarded if the relevant method (M) marks
have been earned.
• B marks are unconditional accuracy marks (independent of M marks)
• Marks should not be subdivided.

3. Abbreviations

These are some of the traditional marking abbreviations that will appear in the mark
schemes.
• bod – benefit of doubt
• ft – follow through
• the symbol will be used for correct ft
• cao – correct answer only
• cso - correct solution only. There must be no errors in this part of the question to
obtain this mark
• isw – ignore subsequent working
• awrt – answers which round to
• SC: special case
• oe – or equivalent (and appropriate)
• dep – dependent
• indep – independent
• dp decimal places
• sf significant figures
•  The answer is printed on the paper
• The second mark is dependent on gaining the first mark

4. All A marks are ‘correct answer only’ (cao.), unless shown, for example, as A1 ft to
indicate that previous wrong working is to be followed through. After a misread
however, the subsequent A marks affected are treated as A ft, but manifestly absurd
answers should never be awarded A marks.

5. For misreading which does not alter the character of a question or materially simplify
it, deduct two from any A or B marks gained, in that part of the question affected.

6. If a candidate makes more than one attempt at any question:

• If all but one attempt is crossed out, mark the attempt which is NOT crossed
out.
• If either all attempts are crossed out or none are crossed out, mark all the
attempts and score the highest single attempt.

7. Ignore wrong working or incorrect statements following a correct answer

Question
Scheme Marks
Number
Throughout the paper the candidates may use different letters to the ones given in the mark scheme.
1. (a) [X ~ the number of pansy seeds that do not germinate or Y = the number…that do germinate]
X  B(20,0.05) or Y~B(20, 0.95) B1
(i) P ( X  4 ) − P ( X  2 ) =0.9974 − 0.9245 or
 20  3 17  20  4 16
M1
 3  0.05 × 0.95 +  4  0.05 × 0.95= 0.05958... + 0.01332...
   
= 0.072909… awrt 0.0729 A1
(ii) P ( X 1) or P (Y 19 ) =
20 × ( 0.95 ) ( 0.05 ) + ( 0.95 )
19 20
M1
= 0.7358 = 0.735839… awrt 0.736 A1 (5)
(b) [Let W = no. of packets where Y > 18] P (W= 5=
) ("0.7358...")
5
M1
= 0.21573… awrt 0.216 A1
(2)

(c) H0 : p = 0.05 H1 : p > 0.05 B1

(1)

(d) [V= no. of seeds that do not germinate V~B(100, 0.05) approximates to] V  Po ( 5 ) M1A1
CR for 1-tail in (c) CR for 2-tail in (c)
P(V  8) = 1 − P (V  7 ) P(V  9) = 0.0681 P(V  10) = 0.0318 M1
= 1 – 0.8666 P(V  10) = 0.0318 P(V  11) = 0.0137
= 0.1334 CR V  10 oe CR V  11 oe A1
Accept H0 or not significant or 8 does not lie in the critical region dM1
Data consistent with Spany’s claim or Insufficient evidence for Jem’s belief A1cso
(6)
Total 14
Notes
(a) B1: writing or using B(20,0.05) [Allow Y~ B(20, 0.95) if Y is clearly defined]. Implied by 1 correct prob.
(i) M1: for P(X  4) – P(X  2) and one correct prob. or P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) and 1 correct prob.
(ii) M1: for P ( X  1) or [20] × ( 0.95 ) ( 0.05) + ( 0.95)
19 20
- condone missing 20

5
(b) M1: for ( their(a)(ii) )

(c) B1: both hypotheses correct with p or π

(d) 1st M1: for realising a Poisson approximation is appropriate. NB Po(95) is M0A0
1st A1: writing or using V ~ Po(5) i.e correct mean for the Poisson.
2nd M1: for writing or using 1 − P ( V  7 ) or P( V  7 ) = 0.8666
or writing P(V  10) = 0.0318 or P(V  9) = 0.0681 or P(V  11) = 0.0137 leading to a CR.
Implied by correct CR or probability = awrt 0.133
2nd A1: for awrt 0.133 or V  10 oe (e.g. V > 9) or V  11 oe allow any letter but CR must match part(c)
3rd dM1: dep on 2nd M1. ft their CR or probability. A correct statement based on comparing 8 with their CR
or their prob with 0.05 or 0.025 [condone 0.866<0.95]– contradicting non-contextual comments M0
3rd A1 cso: all previous marks must be awarded. A correct statement in context. Need Bold words.
NB award M1A1 for a correct contextual statement on its own.
If there are no hypotheses or they are the wrong way around, then 3rd M0 3rd A0
Normal approximation: Award marks in pairs with 2, 4 or 6 marks available
SC1 2
Sight of N(5 or 95, 4.75 ) M1A1; probability awrt 0.125/6 M1A1; Correct contextual concl’ dM1A1
SC2 No approximation: Use of B(100, 0.05) M0A0; probability awrt 0.128 or CR  10 M1A1; then M0A0
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
2. (a) [X = number of faults in 4 m2 so X ~ Po(3)]
e −3 35
P ( X= 5=
) P ( X  5) − P ( X  4 ) [= 0.9161 – 0.8153] or (allow λ instead of 3) M1
5!
= 0.1008 or 0.100818… awrt 0.101 A1
(2)

(b) [Y = number of faults in 6 m2 so] Y ~Po(4.5) and  P (Y > 5 )  = 1 − P (Y  5 ) [= 1 – 0.7029] M1

 
= 0.2971 or (calc) 0.29706956… awrt 0.297 A1
(2)

(c) 0.101 (or ft their answer to (a)) B1ft

Faults occur independently/ randomly B1
(2)

(d) [ F = number of faults in a small rug ] F  Po(0.9) B1

e − "0.9"
n × 80 + (1 − e − "0.9"
) n × 60  4000 or ( awrt 0.407 ) n × 80 + ( awrt 0.593) n × 60  4000 M1
4000
n  = 58.71…
− "0.9"
M1
20e + 60
n = 59 A1
(4)

(e) H 0 : λ = 9 H1 : λ > 9 B1
R  Po("0.9"× 10) and [P(R  13)] = 1 – P(R  12) [= 1 – 0.8758]
M1
P(R  13) = 0.9261 or P(R  14) = 0.0739 or P(R  14) = 0.9585 or P(R  15) = 0.0415
[ P(R  13) ] = 0.1242 awrt 0.124 or CR R  15 (oe) A1
so insufficient evidence to reject H 0 /not significant/ not in critical region M1
There is insufficient evidence that the rate at which faults occur is higher for Rhiannon A1
(5)
Total 15
Notes
(a) e−λ λ 5
M1: for using or writing P ( X  5 ) − P ( X  4 ) or (Accept letter λ or any value of λ)
5!
(b) M1: writing or using Po(4.5) and sight of  P (Y > 5 )  = 1 − P (Y  5 ) Implied by sight of 1 – 0.7029
 

(c) 2nd B1: for a comment about faults occurring randomly/independently or Poisson has “no memory”

(d) B1: writing or using Po(0.9) May be implied by sight of 0.407 or 0.593
1 M1: for e n × 80 + (1 − e ) n × 60 > 4000 any value for λ . Allow = 4000
st −λ −λ

2nd M1: for solving their equation leading to a positive value of n. Allow any value of λ and allow n = …
A1: for an answer of 59 only

(e) B1: both hypotheses correct with λ or µ . Allow 3 or 0.75 or 0.9 instead of 9
1st M1: for writing or using Po(“9”) and writing or using 1 – P(R  12) (implied by 1 – 0.8758) or one of:
P(R  13) = 0.9261, P(R  14) = 0.0739, P(R  14) = 0.9585, P(R  15) = 0.0415 leading to a
CR
1st A1: for probability = awrt 0.124 or CR of R  15 oe e.g. R > 14
2 M1: for a correct conclusion based on their prob & 0.05 or their CR & 13. Assume correct hypotheses.
nd

Do not allow contradicting conclusions

2 A1: dep on both Ms for a correct contextual comment including the words in bold.
nd
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
3. (a)
M1

A1
(2)

(b)  3 
d  ( 4 y 2 − y3 ) 
 50  3 8 y − 3y2 M1
dy
=
50
( )
3 8
50
(8 y − 3 y 2 ) =
0 ; y=
3
oe M1; A1
(3)
(c) 2  6 3 6 2 4  12 3 5
E(Y 2 ) = ∫  y − y  dy + ∫  y 4 − y  dy M1
1
 25 25  2 50
 50 
2 4
 6 4 6 3   12 5 3 6
= y − y  + y − y A1
100 75 1  250 300  2
 8   1    1024   112   1909
=   −  −   +  −  ; = or 7.636 or 7.64 dM1; A1
 25   50    125   125   250
(4)
(d) 1909
Var(
= Y) " "− 2.6962 M1
250
= 0.367584 awrt 0.368 A1
(2)
(e) 1 6 x 6
( y − 1) × ( y − 1) =
0.1 or ∫1 25 ( y − 1) dy =
0.1 M1
2 25
1 6 6  x 2  1 6
( y − 1) × ( y − 1) = ( x − 1)
2
0.1 or  − x  +  = 0.1 or 0.1
= A1
2 25 25  2  2 50
5 5
( y − 1)
2
= or y =±
1 ; y = 1.9128... awrt 1.91 dM1; A1
6 6
(4)
Total 15
Notes
(a) M1: the two parts must be the right shape and not joined. Ignore labels and condone if it goes below x - axis
A1: for 6/25, 12/25, 1, 2 and 4 and must not go beyond 4 or < 1
(b) 1st M1: for attempting to differentiate y n → y n −1 for n = 2 or 3
2nd M1: for equating their differential ( ≠ f ( y ) ) to zero and an attempt at solving so must reach y = …
8
A1: for 3 oe and allow awrt 2.67 If y = 0 is seen it must be rejected.

(c) 1st M1: for using for both parts, and an attempt at integration ( some y → y
n n +1
∫ y f ( y) ) Ignore limits.
2

1st A1: for correct integration for both parts. Ignore limits.
2nd dM1 : dep on 1st M1for adding the 2 parts together and substituting the correct limits in to each part.
2nd A1: allow 7.64 or 7.636 You will need to check that they have used algebraic integration.
(d) M1: for “their part(c)” – 2.696 2 A1: for awrt 0.368
(e) 1 6 x 6
1st M1: allow t × ( t − 1) =0.1 or ∫ ( y − 1) dy =
0.1 and some integration and sub’ of 1 and x
2 25 1 25

1st A1: for a correct equation in any form

2nd dM1: dependent on 1st M1 for a correct method for solving their equation. Implied by correct answer.
2nd A1: for awrt 1.91 (second solution should be rejected)
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
4. 2 1 4
[ A = the number on the ball] P( A= 1)= P( A
= 2)
= P( A= 5)= B1
9 3 9
(i) Possible samples with a range of 4 are: (1,1,5) (1,2,5) (1,5,5) M1
" " " " " " " " " " " "
2 2 4 16 2 4 4 32
(1,1,5) × × ×3 = or (1,5,5) × × ×3 = M1
9 9 9 243 9 9 9 243
" " " " " "
2 1 4 16
(1,2,5) × × ×6 = M1
9 3 9 81
16 32 16 32
P( B = 4) = + + = A1
243 243 81 81

3 3 3
 " 2 "   " 1 "   " 4 "  11
(ii) P( B =
0) =
  +  +  = M1
 9   3   9  81
2 2 2 2
2 1 1  2  10 1 4 4  1  28
P( B = 1) = 3 × ×   + 3 × ×   = or P( B = 3) = 3 × ×   + 3 × ×   = M1
9 3 3  9  81 3 9 9  3  81
" " " " " " " " " " " "
11 10 32 28 11 28 32 10
1− − − = or 1 − − − = M1
81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81

b 0 1 3 4 B1
11 10 28 32
P( B = b)
81 81 81 81 A1
(10)
Total 10
Notes
B1: for writing or using the 3 correct probabilities
(i) 1st M1: for identifying the 3 possible samples
2nd M1: for p × p × q × 3 or p × q × q × 3 where p and q are probabilities with (p + q) < 1
3rd M1: for p × q × r × 6 where p, q and r are probabilities with (p + q + r) = 1
32
A1: for 81 or awrt 0.395 [Calc: 0.3950617…]

(ii) 1st M1: for p 3 + q 3 + r 3 (for their p, q and r)

2nd M1: for 3 × p × ( q ) + 3 × q × ( p ) or 3 × q × ( r ) + 3 × r × ( q ) (for their p, q and r)
2 2 2 2

3rd M1: for use of all probabilities of P(B = b) adding to 1 [Must have 3, 4 or 5 values for b]
B1: for ranges 0, 1, 3 and 4 with none omitted and no extras. Allow extras if assigned probability of 0
A1: for a fully correct probability distribution.
SC A0 in (i) If A0 scored in (i) and all other marks scored in (ii) and correct prob’s for 2 values of b : award A1 in (ii)
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
5 (a)(i) If y = 0 then 1 − (α + β y 2 ) = 0 ∴ α = 1 * B1cso
(ii) If y = 5 then 1 − (α + β y 2 ) =
1
1
1 + 25β =0 ∴β =− * B1cso
25
(2)
1 2 dF( y ) 2
(b) F( y ) = y so f(y) = = y M1
25 dy 25
2
y 0 y5
]  25
∴[ f ( y ) = A1
 0 otherwise
(2)
  11   5 1 5  8
2

(c)  P  R >  =P  Y >  =− 1 ×  =  oe B1

  5  3 25  3   9
11 11
3d − −d
5 = 8 1 M1
oe or 5 = oe
3d − d 9 3d − d 9
9
d= oe A1
5
(3)
 11  121
(d) P Y < = or 0.1936 B1
 5  625
[Let G = the number of spins with distance < 2.2 m]
[ P(G  5) =]
3 3 2 3 3 2
 " 1 "   " 121 "   " 1 "   " 8 "   " 121 "   " 1 "   " 121 "   " 504 "  M1, M1
  ×  + 3×   × ×  + 3×   ×  × 
 9   625   9   9   625   9   625   625 
= 0.000 373226 awrt 0.000 373 A1
(4)
Total 11
Notes
(a) (i) B1: for stating or using the fact that when y = 0 then α + β y 2 =
1
1
0 and setting up the equation leading to β = −
(ii) B1: for stating or using that when y = 5 then α + β y 2 =
25

2
(b) M1: for differentiating. Implied by ± y can ft their value of β
"25"
A1: for a fully correct f(y) defined for the whole range.

(c) B1: for using F(y) and 53 to find P(Y > 53 ) . Allow 89 or any exact equivalent.
M1: for LHS = p where 0 < p < 1
A1: for 95 or any exact equivalent e.g. 1.8

121
(d) B1: for 625 or awrt 0.194 This mark could be implied by a correct answer.
1 M1: for p q + np 2 (1 − p )q 3 + np 3 q 2 (1 − q ) where p and q are probabilities and n is an integer > 0
st 3 3

2nd M1: for p 3 q 3 + 3 p 2 (1 − p )q 3 + 3 p 3 q 2 (1 − q ) where p and q are probabilities.

A1: for awrt 0.000 373
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
6. (i) z = 1.25 B1
187.5 − µ M1 M1
= 1.25
σ A1
187.5 − µ =
1.25σ
µ = 225 p M1
=σ 225 p (1 − p ) M1
= (1.25 ) × 225 p (1 − p ) or (150 − 180 p ) = 225 p (1 − p ) (o.e.)
2
(187.5 − 225 p )
2 2
M1

e.g. 900 ( 5 − 6 p ) = 225 p − p 2

2
( ) (
⇒ 4 25 − 60 p + 36 p 2 = )
p − p2
A1*
Leading to 145 p 2 − 241 p + 100 =
0*
25
(ii) ( 29 p − 25 )( 5 p − 4 ) =0 =
⇒  p 0.8
= or p (accept: 0.862(0689…)) M1
29
[ p =] 0.8 because 0.862 gives a mean greater than 188 (oe) A1
(10)
Total 10
Notes
(i) B1: for 1.25 or better (calculator gives: 1.25027…)
1st M1: for attempting to use a continuity correction i.e. for sight of 188 ± 0.5
2nd M1: for standardising using µ and σ or np and np (1 − p ) (Condone letter n or any integer > 0)
1st A1: for a correct equation with compatible signs, allow 1.250... If using a value for n it must be 225
3rd M1: for µ = 225 p seen at any stage in the working.
for σ
4th M1: = 225 p (1 − p ) seen at any stage in the working.
5 M1: for squaring to get a quadratic equation in p
th

2nd A1*: dep on all previous Ms and use of 1.25 for at least 1correct intermediate step from a correct
quadratic equation e.g one of those in scheme for 5th M1
(ii) M1: for solving the quadratic correctly–leading to p = … or implied by 0.8 or awrt 0.862
A1: for 0.8 and a correct reason to eliminate 0.862
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