PTT 2010 AnalystMeeting
PTT 2010 AnalystMeeting
Analyst Meeting
4Q/2010 Q
Disclaimer The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and p j uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
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Contents
Highlight & PTT Aspiration g g p Expansion & Growth 2010 Financial Performance 2011 Economic and Market Outlook
3/20
Investment/M&A C Canadian Oil S d 40% acquisition b PTTEP di Sands, i iti by PTTCH & PTTAR merger, creating synergistic value SAR Coal, increasing to 45.6% shareholding Laos Xayaburi Hydro power project, investing 25% with CK Bangkadee SPP power project, investing 23% with B.Grimm Operation GSP6 started Testing & Commissioning since 4Q/10 LPG ex-refinery price reformed, 76% linked to market price reformed NGV 2 baht subsidy extended to June 30, 2011 Montara action plan accepted by Australian government Finance 100-year Baht bond, first time ever for Bt4,000 mm at 5.9% p.a. Moodys ratings downgraded to sovereign level at Baa1
4/20
Aspiration : Becoming a Global Fortune 100 Company by 2020 With Top Q p Quartile Performance and on DJSI by 2013 y
Strategic Framework
HPO
Economic Sustainable Growth Strategy Environmental Social
CG
CSR
5/20
ASEAN
Keep core value chain expansion Drive E&P growth (900 kbd) Gas Upstream Accelerate Petchem consolidation, Market back strategy
Coal Others Nuclear Solar Hydro Wi d Wind Bio-based
Real estate
Div versificatio on
Grow coal mining with large scale and move into trading Consolidate and expand power tf li (prioritizing clean) l ) portfolio ( i iti i Capture bio-route growth through sugar/cassava based and oleochem value chain development p
Energy conglomerate
Infra
Seed options to play conglomerate game Retail in Thailand Palm plantation in Indonesia (CPO)
O Others
Business conglomerate
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Contents
Highlights & PTT Aspiration g g p Expansion & Growth 2010 Financial Performance 2011 Economic and Market Outlook
7/20
Unit : mmscfd
6000
4000
2000
Power
61%
New Supply
JDA B17
Bongkot South
M9
4,380
8/20
Others
3% 22% 36%
Best in class operation o Depot & Logistics management Increase non-oil business o Life station, Jiffy, Amazon Grow Internationally o Retail & Lube in Asia o Expand trading network
9% 9% 12% 9%
9/20
PTTEP Upstream
Major projects coming to production
265
273
Domestic 59%
Overseas O 41%
Policy
KKD Oil Sands Sands, Montara, Vietnam 16-1
2010 2011 2012
Bongkot South
Others
1.33 9
>1
2013
2014
2015
M9 Algeria
10/20
2010
TLB Specialties
275,000 bpd
2011
EURO IV Ethanol UBE
2012
PX Upgrading
2013
HCU Revamp Benzene Derivatives Lube Base
2014
Power Plant 220MW
2015
Total
$1 302 MM $1,302
280,000 bpd
GTs Nox/Biodiesel/VRU
EURO IV
$ 265 MM
215,000 bpd
Phoenix Ph i
$ 1,511 MM 1 511
EURO IV
120 000 bpd 120,000
$ 509 MM
11/20
Petrochemical Sector
Major expansion in 2011
2010
2011
2012 onwards
Total
Olefins 1,588 KTA Polymers 590 KTA EO-Based 515 KTA Oleochemicals 962 KTA
Ethylene LLDPE
HDPE LDPE
$1,300MM
Phenol Acetone
$251MM
PP
450 KTA
PP Propylene
$636MM
AN MMA
$760MM
12/20
Unit: U it MM Baht B ht
327,038
228,789 98,249 98 249
Oil Gas
64,889
28,282
33,456
19,334
Others
JV 48%
LNG3% R&D/ Oil4% Others6%
27,865
32,134 10,205
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sources : PTT (Board approval on 24 Dec 2010) ; FX = Baht 30 per USD Note : CAPEX in 2011 not include contingency CAPEX (THB 1 Bn)
13/20
Contents
Highlights in 4Q/2010 g g Q Expansion & Growth 2010 Financial Performance 2011 Economic and Market Outlook
14/20
Performance Highlights
Net profit jumped in 2010
+26% YoY 78 +20% YoY +14% QoQ 84
Unit U it : MM B ht Baht
4Q/2010
Gas
16%
Dubai ($/bbl)
62
74
PTTEP
7% 2% 1% 23%
1,900,005 1,586,174
+7% QoQ
Intl Trading
US$ 16,381 mm
51%
461,402 Revenue
+17% YoY
142,704
167,375
+8% QoQ
Gas
TM 12% S&M 5% GSP 8% Others 3%
41,714 41 714
PTTEP
63%
21,678
37%
PTT
2009
EPS 21.06
2010
29.26
3Q/10
7.64
4Q/10
7.62
Petrochem Affi.
9%
PTTEP
31%
15/20
%share
EquityMethod%PTT
2009 39,651 14,493 25,158 2010 54,577 18,317 36,260 27,414 27 414 5,036 2,293 7,329 4,221 2,282 2,997 2,120 815 12,435 12 435 519 1,784 2,653 46,828 83,088 YoY 38% 26% 44% 87% 50% 180% 75% 29% 2% 19% 23% 62% 21% 21% 31% 91% 34% 37% 40%
Coal
Gas&Utilities Oil&Oth.
PTTAPM
TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/ PTTGE/EMG/PTTI/PTTML SharedofNetIncomefromAffiliates
PTTConso.NetIncome
*Adjusted Negative Goodwill/Reversed on Impairment approx. Bt 134mm in 2009. SPRC FY2010 is unaudited
16/20
ICR
1,102,544 , ,
1,249,148
1.0
157,416 306,846 206,925 ,
1.7 0.5
1.4 14 0.4
885,193
Cash & S/T Invest Other Current Assets Others Noncurrent Assets
112,859 249,565 ,
Other Liabilities
0.4
181,292
2008
2009
2010
Treasury policy
Net Debt/Equity < 1.0 Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0
267,165
474,587
PP&E
374,614
430,536
31 Dec 08
31 Dec 09
31 Dec 10
17/20
Debt Portfolio
PTT Only
: Cost of debts : % fixed-rate : Avg. debt life ~ 4.96 % ~ 89.11% ~ 7.7 years
Consolidated
: Cost of debts : % fixed-rate : Avg. debt life g ~ 4.62 % ~ 85.13 % ~ 6.8 years y
Unit : MM Baht
THB USD
370,262
114,442
(25%)
(31%)
206,300
67,530 (33%)
63,979 (25%)
x
79,493
(26%)
(33%)
258,991 258 991 193,454 (75%) 197,877 255,820 255 820
(75%)
159,121
(69%)
138,770 (67%)
(74%)
(67%)
31 Dec 08
31 Dec 09
31 Dec 10
31 Dec 08
31 Dec 09
31 Dec 10
18/20
Contents
Highlights in 4Q/2010 g g Q Expansion & Growth 2010 Financial Performance 2011 Economic and Market Outlook
19/20
The global economy grows at slower pace, driven by the developing and g y g p y p g the emerging countries. The IMF projected the 2011 growth at 4.7%. Thai economy is also expected to expand following the global economy. NESDB estimated the 2011 growth in the range of 3.5 4.5%. Crude oil price is expected to move in the range of $85 95 /bbl /bbl. Average market GRM is expected in the range of $5-6/bbl from the higher demand following the global economic recovery recovery. Olefins petrochemical price is expected to maintain from the increased demand despite additional capacity. d dd i ddi i l i Aromatics petrochemical price is expected to increase from increasing demand in emerging countries.
20/20
Thank you
Tel. +66 2 537-3815, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, Email: ir@pttplc.com, http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR
Statements of Cash flows (Company Only) : For the year ended 2010
Unit : MM Baht Cash
Beginning
Operating 65,701MB
Finance (18,025) MB
Cash Ending
ChangeinNWC Change in NWC 4,762 CAPEX(PP&E) 20,051 NetIncome& Net Income & NonCash 60,939
Repayment , 33,447
42,768
OthersFinance 34,996
48,788 48 788
CashInflow CashOutflow
31 Dec 09
31 Dec 10
22
By Geography
Middle East (2) Oman Bahrain North Africa (4) Algeria Egypt Thailand (19)*
Gas 71%
Domestic 59%
Overseas 41%
Reserves Replacement Ratio 1.33 Reserve Life Index (year) R Lif I d ( ) 9 Projects 21 4 19 44
23
Myanmar
23 3
Sales Volume
Unit: BOED
Product price
+9% YoY +3%QoQ
2010 %YoY Liquid Weight Avg. Gas +27% +13% +7% %YoY 4Q %QoQ +13% +4% -2%
+13% YoY
264,575 249,903
233,756
265,261
272,198
80.02
Liquid($/BBL)
Earnings
2010 %YoY SalesRevenue+20% EBITDA +30% NetIncome +88% %YoY +5% +41% +118% 4Q %QoQ +1% +11% -4% Unit: MM Baht
SalesRevenue EBITDA
NI
Gas 71%
34,739 24,313 10,532 34,956 27,052 10,120
Liquid Li id 29%
Liquid 47%
Gas 53%
2009
2010
4Q/09
3Q/10
4Q/10
24
Customer Profile
IPP SPP
5% 11% 16% 12%
GSP
Indus try
2010
2009
2007
2006 4,148
4,040 3,554
134 369 597 454 903 943 184 444 650 475
+14% YoY
NGV
3,801
3,606
3,346 3,554 3 554 3,319 3,105
3,677
3,655 3,318 3,138
3,686
23%
935
21%
3,280
2007
1,097
1,344
33%
1,138
1,376
1,390
34%
3,075
2Q 3Q 4Q
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
1Q
The government extend NGV capped price at Bt 8.50/kg until 30 June, 2011 with compensation to PTT at Bt 2/kg.
25
4,290
268
+2% YoY
6%
269
523
537
13%
Ethane NGL
54%
2,356
1,035
1,184
1,231
9% 27% 12% 52%
2,322
LPG
2009
2010
4Q/09
3Q/10
4Q/10
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
92%
96%
98%
98%
ProductPrices
SalesVol.
2010 %YoY
2% 0.4% 9% 3% 2%
Note: Sales volume exclude LPG purchased from petrochemical producers for resale
13,008
13,953
11% 11% 16% 21%
Others
22% 9% 9%
3% 36%
3,410
3,424
3,600
41%
12%
9%
2009
2010
4Q/09
3Q/10
4Q/10
Source : Department of Energy Business
Source : Department of Energy Business, PTT (Excluded supply sales and LPG sold to Petrochem)
58,251
60,256
3% 15% 12%
14,219
70%
14,822
15,722
3% 14% 12% 71%
Crude
Trading Margin
2009 2010 4Q/09 Q/09 3Q/10 Q/10 4Q/10 Q/10
2009
2010
4Q/09
3Q/10
4Q/10
27
Petrochemical Affiliates
Higher performance QoQ from increased sales volume and spread margins
1,222
HDPE1/ Ethylene1/ MEG1/ Naphtha2/
1,260 1,152
1,130 660
1,018 621
1,062 601
733
505
2009
Note : 1/ SEA spot Source : ICIS
2010
2/MOPS
4Q/09
3Q/10
4Q/10
2009
2010
4Q/09
3Q/10
4Q/10
PP 450 KTA
Unit : MM Baht
PP% Utl
94% 83%
85%
87% 77%
2,769
1,949
2,784
2009
2010
4Q/09
EBITDA NI
3Q/10
4Q/10
2009
2010
EBITDA
4Q/09
NI
3Q/10
4Q/10
28
RefiningAssociatesGRM&GIM
12
Unit : US$/bbl
12 10
8.4 84
Unit : US$/bbl
MarketGRM
MarketGIM AccountingGIM
10
10.0
AccountingGRM
8
6.9 6.2
7.3
6
4.9
5.0
4 2 0
3Q/10 4Q/10
0 2009 2010
0.04 4Q/09
Note: Weighted Average GRM of PTTs associates complex refineries (TOP, PTTAR, SPRC and included BCP in year 2010)
Note: Weighted Average GIM of PTTs associates integrated refineries (TOP, PTTAR and IRPC)
2009
2010
4Q/09
3Q/10
4Q/10
29
RefiningAssociates
Lower performance YoY from the narrowed GRM & GIM
Unit : MM Baht
102 20,031
103
104
105
105
13,490 9,162 6,343 4,190 6,562 1,498 , , 1,703 695 4Q/10 3,807
1,611
3,995
4Q/09
3Q/10
2009
2010
4Q/09
3Q/10
IRPC215kbpd (PTT39.02%)
66 9,728 9 728 5,415 81 8,322 70 6,183 735 2010 EBITDA -929 329 3Q/10 -6,706 80 83
3,677
2,352
2009
2010
4Q/09
4Q/10
BCP120kbpd (PTT28.29%)
2,351 2,251
66 86
2009
4Q/09 NI
4Q/10 %Utl
58
73
89
6,165
2,813
2009
2010
30
PTTEP 7.5%
OTHERS 72.7%
PTT 12.0%
Public, 34%
Remark: * DJSI = Dow*Jones = Dow Jones Index Note : DJSI Sustainability Sustainability Index
31
Activities
Exploration and Production
U Upstream m
E&P
PTT PLC
Gas
Gas Pipeline S&M GSP PTT PLC Oil M k ti Marketing Intl Trading TOP PTTAR IRPC SPRC BCP PTTCH
Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemicals feedstock Retail R t il service St ti i Stations and commercial M k ti d i l Marketing Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and petrochemical products Integrated Complex Refinery & Petrochemical Stand alone Complex Refinery Complex Refinery & Retail Stations Gas-based Olefins Chain Petrochemical
Oil Marketing Downstre eam Intl Trading Refining & Petrochemical (Aromatics) ( ) Petrochemical New Business s
International
PTT Inter
100%
Overseas investment arm of PTT : Coal, New energy and related businesses
32
Supply
Indigenous (79%)
3,205 MMscfd
Others 22% Mitsui 9%
Production
Ethane/ Propane/ NGL
Sales
Total 4,012 MMscfd
Chevron 32%
1,865 MMscfd
PTTEP 31%
LPG/NGL
5 GSPs Total Capacity 1,865 MMscfd
Import (21%)
853 MMscfd Myanmar
33
Supply
Import (79%)
870 KBD
Production
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 54 KBD
Crude/ Condensate 816 KBD Refined R fi d Products 834 KBD
Sales
Domestic
Indigenous (21%) I di
236 KBD
Export
246 KBD
34
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 80 000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
161,323 , 138,599 118,986 102,264 86,689 2% 12% 13% 33% 40% 2% 6% 15% 17% 32% 3% 7% 16% 19%
3%
28%
32%
Oil
30%
28%
27%
35
5,236
5,000
4,000
4% 11% 11%
4% 16% 16%
19% 19%
3,000
1,970
8% 15% 15%
17% 17%
2,000
1,000
77% 77% 68% 68%
Power
61% 61%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source : PDP 2010
36
Customers
Supply Margins
Pipeline Tariffs
Power Producers ~ 68% 68% : EGAT : IPP : SPP GSP ~ 33% 33% ~ 23% 23% ~ 12% 12% ~ 16% 16% Petrochemicals Feedstocks: Ethane, Propane, LPG NGL Local Cooking Gas Export Coo po t Cooking Gas g Industry NGV ~ 11% 11% ~ 5% Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals Reference to Naphtha market price Capped at ~330 USD/ton Reference to Saudi Aramco s contract price Aramcos Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil Capped at 8.5 Baht/Kg* Average Purchased Gas Price 1.75% 75% 1.75% 75% 9.33% 33% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
~ 2 .7 Bt/MMBtu 21. 21 / (Td 20.6553 + 20. Tc 1.1112) 1112)
Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions Thailand's Energy Regulatory Commission has approved an increase in pipeline tariff (Td+Tc) from 19.7 to 21.7 Bt/MMBtu effective on 1 April, 2009.
* Government subsidies 2 Baht/kg from Oil Fund until February 28th, 2011
Note : 2010 data
37
52.7
FO
1Q/08 2Q/08
116.8 92.6 129.8 154.5
59.1 44.1
Dubai
67.9
75.4
75.9
78.0
73.9
84.4
ULG95 MOP'S
2Q/09
59.1 53.4 68.8 66.4
HSD MOP'S
4Q/09
75.4 70.9 80.5 81.6
3Q/08
113.3 102.6 119.6 139.5
4Q/08
52.7 45.1 56.7 70.5
1Q/09
44.1 39.0 54.8 53.2
3Q/09
67.9 64.9 76.8 74.9
1Q/10
75.9 72.8 88.2 85.2
2Q/10
78.0 71.4 87.5 89.5
3Q/10
73.9 69.1 82.5 86.3
4Q/10
84.4 76.1 95.0 96.0
Price (USD/BBL)
Dubai FO Gasoline MOP'S HSD MOP'S 91.1 74.6 105.1 114.4
38 38
Aromatics prices
4Q/10 vs 3Q/10 4Q/10 vs 4Q/09 Benzene 14% 11% ParaXylene y 36% 22%
2,000 1,800 1,600 1 600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
LPG
Source: PLATTS & ICIS
1,800 1,600 1 600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
1,051 954 1,169 1,245
Naphtha
PP
HDPE
Benzene
PX
39
EPS
DPS
% Dividend Payout
40.4%
35.0%
25%
30.57 30 57
UNIT : Baht / share
29.26
22.40 18.33 13.43 7.71 2.50 2 50 2001 8.75 2.85 4.00 9.25 6.75 10.50 11.50 11 50 8.00
21.06 21 06
8.50
10.25
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
40
PTTCH PPCL PTT Maintenance and Engineering Co., Ltd.PTTME HMC PTTAC TOP PTTAR IRPC SPRC BCP
Joint Ventures HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. Refining Associates Thai Oil Plc. PTT Aromatics and Refining Plc. IRPC Plc. Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
Others PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT Others Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS
Others
Subsidiaries PTT International Co., Ltd. Energy Complex Co., Ltd. Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. Remark : PTTI EnCo BSA * Consolidate 100.00% 50.00% 25.00% Associates PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT Equity 20.00% Others Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP Fair Value 13.33%
* Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
41
Coal business
Sales Volume & Price
82 73 82 72
Production Profile
76
Unit : MM Tons i
10,712 Kt
Vol. ASP
8.5
2,900 Kt
Sebuku Jembayan
10.7
11
14
17
Sebuku Jembayan
2,855 Kt
2,741 Kt
2009
2010
4Q/09
3Q/10
4Q/10
2008
2009
2010
2011 Target
2012 Target
2013 Target
928
As of Aug 2010
42
Xayaburis FactSheet
Thisprojecthastotalinstalled capacityof1,285MW,locatedaway f l d fromLuang Prabang approximately80 kilometers Apowerpurchaseagreementtosell electricitytoEGATof1,220MWand toElectricite duLaosof60MW to Electricite du Laos of 60 MW Thetotalconstructionperiodis approximately8yearswhichitwillbe d i l i expectedtocommercialoperation withinJanuary2019 p y Aconcessionaperiodof29years
43