Theme FIFA-E
Theme FIFA-E
Theme FIFA-E
One of the world’s top sporting events, the FIFA World Cup, kicked off last
night. The event will attract interest from more than half of the global
population and also influence stock market performances. Our
investigation, based on studying the last five World Cups, found that the
event did not have a statistically significant effect on the SET Index overall;
however, there was a significant impact on domestic-related sectors, which
showed a positive cumulative abnormal return in the range of 1.6-8.3%, with
the most pronounced effect seen during the preliminary stage. The stocks
that were the top ranked in terms of the positive average cumulative
abnormal returns have been selected as our top picks: BJC, MAKRO and BEC,
and we recommend a tactical call on TRUE.
World Cup sentiment has not had a significant effect on the SET Index
The FIFA World Cup is among the world’s top sporting events. More than half
of the global population is anticipated to tune in with great interest, and
Thais are no exception. This paper investigates the relationship between
World Cup sentiment and the returns of the Thai stock market. Our
assessment shows that the sentiment during the past FIFA World Cups has
statistically insignificant extent to the market return.
The FIFA World Cup is among the world’s top sporting events. More than half of the global population is anticipated to
tune in with great interest, including Thais, who have been able to watch live broadcasts of all matches since 1970. The
event has created huge business opportunities for operators engaging in related businesses in Thailand, as they have
been able to launch marketing campaigns to boost sales and spending throughout the event period.
In view of this, we have conducted an event study wherein we assessed the cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR)
to investigate the reaction of share prices to the World Cup. The CAAR is the difference between the actual stock or
index return over an event window (the entire duration of an event, or approximately one month in this case) and the
normal expected return. We found that World Cup sentiment led to positive cumulative abnormal returns at a
statistically significant extent for sectors related to consumption, but not for the SET Index overall.
World Cup sentiment has not had a significant effect on the SET Index
We studied data from the five most recent FIFA World Cups during 2002-2018, looking at share prices in the 100 days
prior to the kick-off dates as the estimation window, in order to determine the expected returns during the event. The
mean adjusted return was used to calculate the SET’s expected average return during the event period, with the
difference between the actual return and the expected return computed as the abnormal return. Applying this
methodology, we found that the World Cup has not had a statistically significant effect on the SET Index overall,
offering an average cumulative abnormal return of -1.0%. However, the average negative return was largely attributed
to the heavy contraction in 2020, owing to investors’ fears related to the global economic slowdown.
Figure 1: Cumulative abnormal returns of the SET Index during the World Cup (2002-2018)
Moreover, when we divided the World Cup into two periods, i.e., the group stage and the final stage, we found that the
cumulative abnormal returns were higher during the group stage than the figures during the final stage. Therefore,
investors are suggested to invest in recommended sectors on the kick-off date and subsequently sell to take profit
around the semifinals.
The cumulative abnormal returns classified by stages The cumulative abnormal returns throughout the entire matches
Figure 4: Stocks with cumulative abnormal returns during the World Cup
Group A Group E
Argentina vs. Saudi Arabia Quarter Finals ( M. 57) Quarter Finals ( M. 60) Switzerland vs. Cameroon
Mexico vs. Poland W53 W51 Brazil vs. Serbia
Poland vs. Saudi Arabia W54 W52 Cameroon vs. Serbia
Argentina vs. Mexico Round of 16 (M. 50) Round of 16 (M. 52) Brazil vs. Switzerland
Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico 1st Group C 1st Group G Cameroon vs. Brazil
Poland vs. Argentina 2nd Group D 3rd Place (M. 63) 2nd Group H Serbia vs. Switzerland
L61
Group D L62 Group H
Round of 16 (M. 53) Round of 16 (M56)
Denmark vs. Tunisia 1st Group D 1st Group H Uruguay vs. South Korea
France vs. Australia 2nd Group C 2nd Group G Portugal vs. Ghana
Tunisia vs. Australia South Korea vs. Ghana
France vs. Denmark Portugal vs. Uruguay
Tunisia vs. France South Korea vs. Portugal
Australia vs. Denmark Ghana vs. Uruguay
5
BIG Theme
CAPReport
UPDATE
– FIFA World Cup Effect
0.80
0.70
Implied Market View
0.60
- Equity Market Risk Premium 3.03% 5.91%
0.50 - Observed Beta 0.38 0.38
0.40 - Required Return 4.33% 5.01%
0.30
(Bt) 50.0
2022E 2023E
2.5 40.0
2.0 30.0
1.69
1.5 20.0
1.46
1.0 10.0
0.5 -
0.0
Oct-20
Apr-20
Apr-22
Apr-21
Jul-20
Oct-21
Jul-21
Oct-22
Jan-20
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-21
(Bt) 50.0
2022E 2023E
2.0 40.0
1.36 30.0
1.5
20.0
1.0 10.0
1.08
-
0.5
0.0
Mkt Price Fair Price Avg Fair Value
Oct-20
Apr-20
Apr-22
Apr-21
Jul-20
Oct-21
Jul-21
Oct-22
Jan-20
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-21
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
MAKRO generated a cumulative average abnormal return of 4.5% in the
EVENTS AND CORPORATE ACTIONS past five World Cups: The firm yielded positive cumulative returns from the
DATE UPCOMING EVENT last four World Cups in the range of -11.5% (in 2018) to 11.0% (in 2002).
- - To benefit from the World Cup during the sales season: The local live
broadcast times in the early evenings are expected to encourage out-of-
home gatherings to watch the matches, which is likely to boost the sales of
COMPANY PROFILE MAKRO’s food services. However, the firm’s earnings may not prove to be
MAKRO is a firm under the CP Group, engaging in the outstanding in 4Q22E due to the increases in spending on store renovations
cash-and-carry store business under the brand and the improvement of online sales channels.
MAKRO. In 2021, MAKRO strengthened its business Earnings to regain momentum in 2023E: The consensus estimate calls for
by acquiring Lotus in Thailand and Malaysia. earnings to grow by 52% YoY to Bt12.0bn in 2023E. Apart from its organic
growth, MAKRO’s earnings are expected to be further bolstered by the
Mkt. Cap: Bt402,052.29mn recovery in purchasing power following the resumption of economic
Free Float: 13.53% activities. The effectiveness of the firm’s cost control has also been
enhanced. There is upside to the earnings forecast next year from the
potential refinancing of loans in order to increase the portion of debts with
fixed interest rates.
-0.80
-1.00
KTX's View
-1.20 - Equity Market Risk Premium 3.20% 3.89%
-1.40 - Estimated Beta -0.16 -0.18
2-Jan-19 2-Jan-20 2-Jan-21 2-Jan-22
(Bt)
15.0
2022E 2023E 10.0
0.8
0.49
5.0
0.6
-
0.4 -5.0
0.42
0.2 -10.0
0.0 -15.0
2-Mar-19
2-Nov-19
2-Mar-21
2-Jan-19
2-Sep-19
2-Jan-20
2-Mar-20
2-Nov-20
2-Jan-21
2-Jan-22
2-Mar-22
2-Nov-21
2-Nov-22
2-Jul-19
2-Jul-20
2-Sep-20
2-Jul-21
2-Sep-21
2-Jul-22
2-Sep-22
2-May-19
2-May-20
2-May-21
2-May-22
-0.2
Apr-20
Oct-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Apr-21
Apr-22
Oct-20
Oct-22
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jul-22
Jan-21
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
BEC generated positive cumulative abnormal returns during the past
EVENTS AND CORPORATE ACTIONS five World Cups, with a cumulative average abnormal return of 3 . 2 %
DATE UPCOMING EVENT (ranging from 0.63% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2014).
November 23, 2022 Opportunity Day Earnings to be maintained in the short term: The fact that the World
presentation Cup is taking place during the festive season is expected to provide a
boost to ad spending, particularly around the yearend. This should
COMPANY PROFILE enable BEC’s 4Q22E earnings to grow QoQ.
BEC generates and produces TV content and sells Wait for recovery in 2023E: The consensus estimate calls for BEC’s
advertising time. The firm has been granted a license to earnings to grow by 28% YoY to Bt857mn in 2023E thanks to the
operate digital TV for HD channel 33. rebound of ad spending and other media, such as events and concerts,
in response to the economic recovery. In addition, the firm has shifted
Mkt. Cap: Bt20,200.00mn toward new revenue sources from other businesses, such as digital
Free Float: 38.35% platforms and movies, in order to reduce its dependence on TV revenue
— the firm targets reducing its exposure to TV revenue to 5 0 % of total
revenue from 87-88% currently within five years.
Note:
Krungthai XSpring has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank Plc. (KTB) and XSpring Capital Plc. (XPG). Therefore, prior to making
investment in the securities of KTB and XPG, investors should consider the risk factors carefully.
An executive of Krungthai XSpring is also a board member of VNG, SVH, PACE, MAJOR, KBS, XPG, NVD, KTC, IVL, SAWAD,
CI and SABUY.
A management member of Krungthai XSpring is also a board member of NFC.
Krungthai XSpring is a financial advisor for XPG, TSE, STOWER, NVD, BTS, AHC, SGC, ITC and THCOM.
Disclaimer
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The
statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment.
The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the
solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion
and risk of the user.