FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 2, 2011

INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL
information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH
OF THE PRESS RELEASE

In VA Allen cruising for Sen., Bachmann/Perry strong for pres

Raleigh, N.C. While many politicians viewed as safe were ousted in Republican
primaries last year, taking down George Allen appears to be too far a reach for the Tea
Party. Against a generic more conservative challenger, Allen leads 58-23. Even very
conservative voters prefer Allen 54-31. Against actual opponents, Allens lead is even
starker. Allen takes 68% of the vote to 6% for Jamie Radtke, 2% for Tim Donner, 2% for
EW. Jackson, and 0% for David McCormick. Allen benefits from a strong 63-18
favorability rating while Radtke is unknown and underwater at 7-16.
On the other hand, the race for Governor in 2013 could be fertile ground for a candidate
of the far right. In a primary contest between Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling and
Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, Cuccinelli leads 45-21. Cuccinelli is strongest
with very conservatives with whom he leads Bolling 56-15. However, even moderates
give Cuccinelli the edge, 40-22. While both politicians are well liked, Cuccinelli is much
better known than Bolling, rating 56-15 compared to Bollings 28-13.
The Presidential primary in Virginia depends greatly on whether or not Sarah Palin enters
the race. Without Palin, Michele Bachmann leads with 21% of the vote to Rick Perry and
Mitt Romneys 18%, Herman Cains 10%, Newt Gingrichs 8%, Ron Pauls 7%, Tim
Pawlentys 3%, and Jon Huntsmans 2%. On the other hand, if Palin throws her hat into
the ring, Perry leads with 20% to 16% for Romney, 15% for Bachmann, 10% for Cain,
6% for Gingrich and Paul, 2% for Pawlenty, and just 1% for Huntsman.
Perrys Virginia showing is particularly strong, and his best performance aside from his
home state of Texas. Perry is in direct competition with Bachmann as they both achieve
their greatest strength with very conservative voters. In a field without Palin, Bachmann
leads Perry with very conservatives just 27-24, with Romney way back at 13%. On the
other hand, among moderates Romney dominates with 29% with Bachmann at 18% and
Perry all the way back at 9%. However, moderates are just 19% of the GOP electorate.
PPP surveyed 400 Virginia Republican primary voters from July 21th to 24th. The margin
of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate
Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight
bias toward Republican candidates.
Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988

Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Virginia Survey Results

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Michele Bachmann?

Favorable........................................................ 7%

Unfavorable .................................................... 34%

Unfavorable .................................................... 16%

Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Not sure .......................................................... 77%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Herman Cain?

Q8

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Bill Bolling?

Favorable........................................................ 44%

Favorable........................................................ 28%

Unfavorable .................................................... 20%

Unfavorable .................................................... 13%

Not sure .......................................................... 36%

Not sure .......................................................... 59%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Sarah Palin?

Q9

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Ken Cuccinelli?

Favorable........................................................ 61%

Favorable........................................................ 56%

Unfavorable .................................................... 28%

Unfavorable .................................................... 15%

Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Not sure .......................................................... 30%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rick Perry?
Unfavorable .................................................... 18%
Not sure .......................................................... 38%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 50%
Unfavorable .................................................... 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Q6

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Jamie Radtke?

Favorable........................................................ 46%

Favorable........................................................ 44%

Q5

Q7

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of George Allen?

Q10 The announced Republican candidates for

Senate are George Allen, Tim Donner, E.W.
Jackson, David McCormick, and Jamie Radtke.
If the primary was today, who would you vote
for?
George Allen ................................................... 68%
Tim Donner ..................................................... 2%
E.W. Jackson.................................................. 2%
David McCormick............................................ 0%
Jamie Radtke.................................................. 6%
Undecided....................................................... 22%

Favorable........................................................ 63%
Unfavorable .................................................... 18%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
Survey of 400 Republican primary voters
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

July 21-24, 2011

Q11 Do you think George Allen is too liberal, too

conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ....................................................... 7%
Too conservative............................................. 9%
About right ...................................................... 67%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q12 Generally speaking, would you prefer that the

Republican nominee for Senate next year was
George Allen or someone more conservative
than him?

Q15 If Sarah Palin didnt end up running for

President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 21%
Herman Cain................................................... 10%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 2%

George Allen ................................................... 58%

Ron Paul ......................................................... 7%

Someone more conservative .......................... 23%

Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 3%

Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 18%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2013 were Bill

Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli, who would you vote
for?
Bill Bolling ....................................................... 21%
Ken Cuccinelli ................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 34%

Q14 If the candidates for President next year were

Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 15%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 18%

Someone else/Not sure .................................. 13%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 1%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 4%
Moderate......................................................... 19%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 33%
Very conservative ........................................... 43%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Herman Cain................................................... 10%

Woman ........................................................... 46%

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 6%

Man................................................................. 54%

Jon Huntsman................................................. 1%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 13%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 6%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 2%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 20%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 16%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 8%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 43%
Older than 65 .................................................. 27%

Someone else/Not sure .................................. 11%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
Survey of 400 Republican primary voters
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

July 21-24, 2011

Crosstabs

Ideology

Ideology
Very Som ew hat
Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Bachm ann
Favorability

Cain Favorability

Favorable 46%

38%

19%

38%

41%

56%

Unfavorable 34%

62%

60%

43%

31%

29%

21%

19%

28%

15%

Not sure 20%

Favorable 44%

22%

6%

43%

31%

59%

Unfavorable 20%

62%

46%

26%

19%

15%

Not sure 36%

16%

48%

31%

50%

26%

Ideology

Ideology

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
Palin Favorability

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
Perry Favorability

Favorable 61%

84%

55%

42%

58%

72%

Favorable 44%

84%

15%

37%

40%

52%

Unfavorable 28%

16%

41%

48%

28%

20%

Unfavorable 18%

16%

56%

23%

14%

15%

4%

10%

14%

8%

Not sure 38%

29%

40%

46%

32%

Not sure 10%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Ideology

Ideology

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
Rom ney Favorability

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
Allen Favorability

Favorable 50%

16%

28%

52%

60%

45%

Favorable 63%

31%

57%

53%

60%

70%

Unfavorable 32%

84%

54%

33%

18%

40%

Unfavorable 18%

46%

37%

27%

17%

14%

19%

15%

22%

15%

Not sure 19%

22%

6%

20%

24%

16%

Not sure 17%

Ideology

Ideology

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
Radtke Favorability

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
Bolling Favorability

5%

4%

10%

Favorable 28%

4%

17%

28%

37%

Unfavorable 16%

62%

56%

16%

15%

12%

Unfavorable 13%

46%

49%

14%

9%

11%

Not sure 77%

38%

44%

79%

81%

78%

Not sure 59%

54%

46%

68%

63%

53%

Favorable

7%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Ideology

Ideology

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Cuccinelli
Favorability

2012 GOP Sen

Prim ary

Favorable 56%

38%

27%

43%

55%

65%

31%

58%

65%

65%

Unfavorable 15%

46%

49%

21%

10%

11%

Tim Donner

2%

46%

25%

1%

Not sure 30%

16%

23%

36%

35%

24%

E.W. Jackson

2%

1%

1%

3%

David McCorm ick

0%

1%

Jam ie Radtke

6%

8%

4%

8%

22%

16%

25%

29%

16%

George Allen 68%

Undecided 22%

Ideology

74%

Ideology
Very Som ew hat
Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
Allen Ideology
7%

3%

Too conservative

9%

46%

37%

17%

8%

3%

George Allen 58%

54%

46%

63%

62%

54%

About right 67%

54%

63%

60%

69%

70%

Som eone m ore 23%

conservative

46%

37%

13%

17%

31%

20%

21%

12%

Not sure 19%

16%

24%

21%

15%

Not sure 16%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

2%

14%

Allen or Som eone

More Conservative?

Too liberal

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Ideology

Ideology

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
2013 GOP Gov
Prim ary

2012 GOP Pres

Prim ary
-

46%

22%

25%

15%

Michele Bachm ann 15%

Ken Cuccinelli 45%

69%

34%

40%

34%

56%

Herm an Cain 10%

Not sure 34%

31%

21%

38%

42%

28%

Bill Bolling 21%

4%

12%

12%

20%

46%

25%

15%

7%

8%
5%

New t Gingrich

6%

10%

5%

9%

Jon Huntsm an

1%

4%

1%

3%

Sarah Palin 13%

23%

13%

11%

15%
5%

Ron Paul

6%

9%

6%

Tim Paw lenty

2%

3%

2%

2%

Rick Perry 20%

Mitt Rom ney 16%
Som eone else/Not 11%
sure

38%

6%

10%

16%

28%

15%

20%

21%

12%

16%

12%

14%

14%

7%

Ideology

Gender

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
2012 GOP Pres
Prim ary w /o Palin
Michele Bachm ann 21%

22%

17%

18%

16%

27%

Herm an Cain 10%

46%

12%

12%

6%

11%

New t Gingrich

8%

23%

3%

9%

7%

Jon Huntsm an

2%

4%

Ron Paul

7%

Tim Paw lenty

3%

6%

Rick Perry 18%

Mitt Rom ney 18%
Som eone else/Not 13%
sure

1%

3%

1%

10%

8%

5%

3%

4%

2%

16%

9%

18%

24%

31%

29%

18%

13%

16%

6%

14%

18%

10%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

Base Wom an

Man

Bachm ann
Favorability
Favorable 46%

38%

53%

Unfavorable 34%

39%

29%

Not sure 20%

23%

18%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender
Base Wom an

Gender
Man

Cain Favorability

Base Wom an

Man

Palin Favorability

Favorable 44%

36%

51%

Favorable 61%

61%

61%

Unfavorable 20%

20%

21%

Unfavorable 28%

27%

30%

Not sure 36%

44%

28%

Not sure 10%

12%

9%

Gender
Base Wom an

Gender
Man

Perry Favorability

Base Wom an

Man

Rom ney Favorability

Favorable 44%

43%

46%

Favorable 50%

49%

51%

Unfavorable 18%

14%

21%

Unfavorable 32%

28%

36%

Not sure 38%

43%

33%

Not sure 17%

22%

13%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender
Base Wom an

Gender
Man

Allen Favorability

Base Wom an

Man

Radtke Favorability

Favorable 63%

60%

65%

Unfavorable 18%

17%

20%

Not sure 19%

23%

15%

7%

5%

8%

Unfavorable 16%

15%

17%

Not sure 77%

81%

74%

Favorable

Gender

Gender
Base Wom an
Bolling Favorability
Favorable 28%

26%

30%

Unfavorable 13%

9%

16%

Not sure 59%

65%

54%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

Base Wom an

Man

Man

Cuccinelli
Favorability
Favorable 56%

53%

59%

Unfavorable 15%

15%

14%

Not sure 30%

33%

27%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender
Base Wom an

Gender
Man

2012 GOP Sen

Prim ary

Base Wom an

Man

Allen Ideology

George Allen 68%

67%

69%

Tim Donner

2%

3%

1%

E.W. Jackson

2%

3%

David McCorm ick

0%

0%

Jam ie Radtke

6%

4%

8%

Undecided 22%

26%

19%

Too liberal

7%

6%

9%

Too conservative

9%

9%

10%

About right 67%

70%

65%

Not sure 16%

15%

17%

Gender

Gender
Base Wom an

Base Wom an

Man

Man

2013 GOP Gov

Prim ary

Allen or Som eone

More Conservative?
George Allen 58%

57%

59%

Bill Bolling 21%

22%

19%

Som eone m ore 23%

conservative

21%

25%

Ken Cuccinelli 45%

44%

46%

Not sure 34%

34%

35%

Not sure 19%

21%

16%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender
Base Wom an

Gender
Man

Base Wom an

2012 GOP Pres

Prim ary

Man

2012 GOP Pres

Prim ary w /o Palin

Michele Bachm ann 15%

13%

16%

Michele Bachm ann 21%

21%

22%

Herm an Cain 10%

11%

10%

Herm an Cain 10%

9%

10%

New t Gingrich

6%

3%

9%

New t Gingrich

8%

6%

9%

Jon Huntsm an

1%

3%

Jon Huntsm an

2%

0%

3%

17%

11%

Ron Paul

7%

4%

9%

Tim Paw lenty

3%

3%

3%

Sarah Palin 13%

Ron Paul

6%

2%

9%

Tim Paw lenty

2%

2%

2%

Rick Perry 18%

17%

20%

Rick Perry 20%

21%

19%

Mitt Rom ney 18%

22%

15%

Mitt Rom ney 16%

19%

13%

10%

Som eone else/Not 11%

sure

10%

Som eone else/Not 13%

sure

18%

12%

Age

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Bachm ann
Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Cain Favorability

Favorable 46%

20%

36%

55%

47%

Unfavorable 34%

53%

38%

28%

34%

Not sure 20%

27%

27%

17%

18%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

Favorable 44%

40%

36%

50%

43%

Unfavorable 20%

20%

18%

19%

23%

Not sure 36%

40%

47%

31%

33%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Palin Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Perry Favorability

Favorable 61%

80%

56%

59%

64%

Favorable 44%

33%

38%

46%

50%

Unfavorable 28%

13%

36%

31%

23%

Unfavorable 18%

40%

16%

16%

16%

Not sure 10%

7%

9%

9%

13%

Not sure 38%

27%

47%

38%

33%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Rom ney Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Allen Favorability

Favorable 50%

27%

62%

47%

53%

Favorable 63%

40%

62%

62%

70%

Unfavorable 32%

47%

22%

38%

28%

Unfavorable 18%

33%

18%

19%

13%

Not sure 17%

27%

16%

16%

19%

Not sure 19%

27%

20%

19%

16%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Radtke Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Bolling Favorability
-

13%

6%

4%

Favorable 28%

20%

29%

26%

35%

Unfavorable 16%

33%

11%

17%

14%

Unfavorable 13%

20%

13%

14%

8%

Not sure 77%

67%

76%

78%

81%

Not sure 59%

60%

58%

61%

57%

Favorable

7%

Age

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

2012 GOP Sen

Prim ary

Cuccinelli
Favorability

56%

60%

68%

78%

2%

13%

2%

1%

E.W. Jackson

2%

6%

2%

1%

1%

David McCorm ick

0%

1%

Jam ie Radtke

6%

6%

7%

7%

3%

Undecided 22%

19%

29%

23%

16%

Favorable 56%

47%

47%

57%

64%

Unfavorable 15%

13%

22%

17%

5%

Tim Donner

Not sure 30%

40%

31%

26%

31%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

George Allen 68%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Allen Ideology
Too liberal

7%

13%

7%

7%

6%

Too conservative

9%

13%

13%

10%

4%

About right 67%

50%

58%

66%

Not sure 16%

25%

22%

17%

Base
Allen or Som eone
More Conservative?
George Allen 58%

56%

56%

56%

64%

83%

Som eone m ore 23%

conservative

38%

22%

22%

23%

7%

Not sure 19%

6%

22%

22%

13%

Age

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

2012 GOP Pres

Prim ary

2013 GOP Gov

Prim ary
Bill Bolling 21%

13%

20%

23%

20%

Michele Bachm ann 15%

13%

18%

13%

15%

Ken Cuccinelli 45%

44%

44%

45%

46%

Herm an Cain 10%

25%

7%

11%

7%

Not sure 34%

44%

36%

32%

34%

New t Gingrich

6%

9%

6%

6%

Jon Huntsm an

1%

3%

1%

Sarah Palin 13%

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

25%

9%

12%

16%

7%

6%

4%

Ron Paul

6%

13%

Tim Paw lenty

2%

3%

2%

Rick Perry 20%

24%

19%

23%

Mitt Rom ney 16%

13%

18%

15%

18%

Som eone else/Not 11%

sure

13%

9%

12%

9%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

2012 GOP Pres

Prim ary w /o Palin
Michele Bachm ann 21%

25%

27%

19%

20%

Herm an Cain 10%

19%

7%

12%

6%

8%

6%

9%

8%

6%

Jon Huntsm an

2%

3%

1%

Ron Paul

7%

19%

7%

6%

5%

Tim Paw lenty

3%

5%

3%

Rick Perry 18%

24%

16%

23%

Mitt Rom ney 18%

13%

20%

16%

22%

Som eone else/Not 13%

sure

19%

7%

16%

14%

New t Gingrich

July 21-24, 2011

survey of 400 Republican primary voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988