(Kotak) Friday Flash, July 01, 2022
(Kotak) Friday Flash, July 01, 2022
(Kotak) Friday Flash, July 01, 2022
Market highlights for the week ending Thursday, June 30, 2022
• Largest gainers: Mahindra Logistics (+13%), ONGC (+12%), Mahindra CIE Automotive (+11%)
• Largest losers: Zomato (-23%), Star Health & Allied Insurance (-13%), Biocon (-6%)
Trend in 10-year benchmark yields across major DMs (%) Flows in emerging markets (US$ mn)
5 France Germany Japan
Switzerland UK US Date India Indonesia Philippines Korea Taiwan Thailand Sanjeev Prasad
23-Jun-22 (257) (114) (9) (169) (190) (63) sanjeev.prasad@kotak.com
4
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0830
24-Jun-22 (269) (73) (6) 269 (100) (32)
3 27-Jun-22 (139) (89) (7) 199 314 47
28-Jun-22 (108) (101) (3) (210) (459) 75 Sunita Baldawa
2 sunita.baldawa@kotak.com
29-Jun-22 (39) (68) (12) (292) (99) 8
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0896
1 Total (813) (445) (37) (204) (534) 35
0
Anindya Bhowmik
Source: Bloomberg, NSDL, Kotak Institutional Equities anindya.bhowmik@kotak.com
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
(2)
FOR REG AC CERTIFICATION, SEE THE END OF THE TEXT OF THIS REPORT, PRECEDING THE DISCLOSURES. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
KIE LARGE-CAP. MODEL PORTFOLIO
Notes:
(a) The model portfolio is not advise or recommendation or a suggestion for buying or selling securities as shown. It is only an indicative portfolio to show how
a portfolio can be built. Please consult an expert to build your portfolio.
Price Fair value Upside Mkt cap. EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) RoE (%)
Company Sector Rating (Rs) (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E
ABB Capital Goods ADD 2,301 2,380 3 488 6,172 19 27 39 119 84 58 12.1 10.9 9.5 11 14 17
Ashok Leyland Automobiles & Components BUY 148 150 1 434 5,494 1 4 7 273 35 20 5.7 5.2 4.5 2 15 24
Cummins India Capital Goods BUY 1,024 1,280 25 284 3,594 30 36 43 34 28 24 5.9 5.4 4.9 18 20 22
Federal Bank Banks BUY 90 120 33 190 2,401 9 12 14 10 7 6 1.1 1.0 0.9 11 13 14
GMR Infrastructure Transportation BUY 34 43 26 206 2,605 (0.4) (1.3) (0.8) (80) (27) (43) (25.2) (14.4) (11.8) 20 69 30
LIC Housing Finance Diversified Financials BUY 327 600 83 180 2,279 42 65 74 8 5 4 0.9 0.8 0.7 10 14 14
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Diversified Financials ADD 175 210 20 217 2,743 8 16 20 22 11 9 1.5 1.4 1.2 7 12 14
Max Financial Services Insurance BUY 779 1,050 35 269 3,403 3 11 12 262 69 64 — — — 2 6 6
Minda Industries Automobiles & Components ADD 923 950 3 264 3,339 12 21 28 74 43 32 7.7 6.5 5.4 10 15 17
Narayana Hrudayalaya Health Care Services ADD 630 645 2 129 1,631 17 18 21 38 35 30 8.7 6.9 5.6 26 22 21
Oberoi Realty Real Estate ADD 738 965 31 268 3,395 29 41 50 26 18 15 2.6 2.3 2.0 11 14 14
Prestige Estates Projects Real Estate BUY 387 580 50 155 1,964 9 27 35 45 14 11 1.7 1.5 1.4 4 11 13
Shriram Transport Diversified Financials BUY 1,281 1,675 31 347 4,387 100 138 159 13 9 8 1.4 1.2 1.1 11 16 14
Sobha Real Estate BUY 577 890 54 55 693 12 48 54 47 12 11 2.2 1.9 1.7 5 17 17
Thermax Capital Goods ADD 2,097 2,100 0 250 3,163 28 42 55 76 50 38 6.8 6.4 6.0 9 13 16
United Breweries Consumer Staples ADD 1,453 1,725 19 384 4,862 14 28 36 105 52 40 9.8 8.7 8.0 10 18 21
Varun Beverages Consumer Staples BUY 791 850 8 514 6,500 11 19 22 74 42 35 12.6 9.9 7.9 18 26 25
Notes:
(a) The model portfolio is not advise or recommendation or a suggestion for buying or selling securities as shown. It is only an indicative portfolio to show how a portfolio can be built. Please consult an expert to build your portfolio.
Valuation summary of BSE-30 sectors, March fiscal year-ends, 2022-24E (based on current constituents)
Mcap. Adj. mcap. EPS growth (%) Free-float PER (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Price/BV (X) Div. yield (%) RoE (%)
(US$ bn) (US$ bn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E
Automobiles & Components 50 27 17.2 39.5 31.6 38.9 29.1 22.8 26.9 19.2 14.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 9.5 12.1 14.3
Banks 284 218 39.1 24.7 11.9 19.2 15.8 14.1 — — — 2.4 2.1 1.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 13.1 14.2 14.2
Capital Goods 28 24 25.5 20.6 31.3 25.5 21.2 16.1 17.9 15.2 12.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.4 2.0 2.6 12.3 14.0 17.0
Commodity Chemicals 33 15 0.4 37.6 22.0 82.0 59.6 48.9 53.3 39.5 32.6 18.7 16.7 14.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 22.8 27.9 30.3
Consumer Staples 130 63 13.4 12.6 13.5 33.6 29.7 26.5 28.4 25.1 22.1 9.2 8.8 8.6 2.3 2.5 2.8 23.3 25.3 27.8
Construction materials 20 8 28.6 (15.8) 42.2 22.6 26.8 18.8 14.4 14.5 10.8 3.2 2.9 2.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 14.2 10.9 13.8
Diversified Financials 113 76 21.1 30.1 17.4 32.5 26.9 23.2 — — — 4.4 4.0 3.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 12.4 14.6 15.0
Electric Utilities 36 18 3.6 8.1 7.6 9.5 8.8 8.2 8.1 7.3 6.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 6.0 5.5 5.9 14.0 14.0 14.0
IT Services 303 138 13.2 9.5 11.1 25.9 23.7 21.2 17.4 15.6 14.0 7.5 6.7 6.2 1.9 2.7 3.2 28.6 28.3 28.8
Metals & Mining 13 9 372.1 (53.2) (25.4) 2.6 5.6 7.5 2.5 4.2 4.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 5.9 2.7 1.5 35.2 14.5 9.8
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 209 106 33.1 37.0 8.8 28.5 20.8 19.1 15.7 11.3 9.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 7.4 9.3 9.2
Retailing 22 10 131.2 29.2 23.1 76.5 59.2 48.1 51.3 38.5 31.7 18.5 15.4 12.8 0.4 0.6 0.8 24.1 26.0 26.7
Pharmaceuticals 34 18 28.5 4.3 20.1 24.7 23.5 19.4 17.4 15.1 12.3 4.1 3.6 3.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 16.3 14.9 15.6
Telecommunication Services 49 21 192.5 453.6 74.7 145.9 26.4 15.1 8.8 6.7 5.0 5.8 4.8 3.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 4.0 18.1 23.2
BSE-30 Index 1,324 754 35.1 16.1 13.4 22.8 20.0 17.7 14.5 12.7 11.1 3.4 3.1 2.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 14.3 15.0 15.3
BSE-30 Index (ex-energy) 1,116 647 35.4 13.0 14.3 22.0 19.8 17.5 14.2 13.2 11.5 3.9 3.5 3.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 16.7 16.9 17.3
BSE-30 Index (ex-banks) 1,040 535 33.6 12.9 14.1 24.6 22.4 19.8 14.5 12.7 11.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 14.9 15.3 15.7
Valuation summary of Nifty-50 sectors, March fiscal year-ends, 2022-24E (based on current constituents)
Mcap. Adj. mcap. EPS growth (%) Free-float PER (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Price/BV (X) Div. yield (%) RoE (%)
(US$ bn) (US$ bn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E
Automobiles & Components 98 54 (52.9) 299.3 56.1 96.5 26.9 17.5 16.0 11.2 8.2 4.1 3.8 3.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 3.7 13.5 18.4
Banks 284 218 39.1 24.7 11.9 19.2 15.8 14.1 — — — 2.4 2.1 1.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 13.1 14.2 14.2
Capital Goods 28 24 25.5 20.6 31.3 25.5 21.2 16.1 17.9 15.2 12.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.4 2.0 2.6 12.3 14.0 17.0
Commodity Chemicals 33 15 0.4 37.6 22.0 82.0 59.6 48.9 53.3 39.5 32.6 18.7 16.7 14.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 22.8 27.9 30.3
Construction Materials 40 18 35.3 (12.0) 34.9 17.8 20.0 15.0 10.5 10.3 7.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 11.7 9.4 11.4
Consumer Staples 149 74 11.1 12.7 14.3 35.9 31.6 28.0 29.4 25.9 22.7 9.1 8.7 8.4 2.2 2.3 2.7 22.1 24.0 26.4
Diversified Financials 113 76 21.1 30.1 17.4 32.5 26.9 23.2 — — — 4.4 4.0 3.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 12.4 14.6 15.0
Electric Utilities 36 18 3.6 8.1 7.6 9.5 8.8 8.2 8.1 7.3 6.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 6.0 5.5 5.9 14.0 14.0 14.0
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 6 4 26.0 27.9 19.4 13.5 10.6 8.9 7.4 6.1 5.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.5 16.2 17.7 18.1
Health Care Services 7 5 748.8 36.4 35.3 69.6 51.0 37.7 24.7 22.7 18.7 9.4 8.4 7.4 0.8 0.8 1.1 13.5 16.6 19.8
IT Services 303 138 13.2 9.5 11.1 25.9 23.7 21.2 17.4 15.6 14.0 7.5 6.7 6.2 1.9 2.7 3.2 28.6 28.3 28.8
Insurance 28 12 (3.6) 17.2 16.4 82.7 70.6 60.6 — — — 8.4 7.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 10.1 11.0 11.8
Metals & Mining 40 22 238.6 (47.9) 0.0 4.0 7.6 7.8 3.6 5.4 5.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 3.6 1.7 1.4 28.9 13.2 11.9
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 256 122 53.3 25.8 (2.7) 18.1 14.5 14.2 9.5 7.0 6.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.2 11.6 13.3 11.8
Pharmaceuticals 56 30 27.2 5.8 20.5 26.8 25.0 20.5 18.2 16.0 13.1 4.4 3.9 3.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 16.4 15.3 16.0
Retailing 22 10 131.2 29.2 23.1 76.5 59.2 48.1 51.3 38.5 31.7 18.5 15.4 12.8 0.4 0.6 0.8 24.1 26.0 26.7
Telecommunication Services 49 21 192.5 453.6 74.7 145.9 26.4 15.1 8.8 6.7 5.0 5.8 4.8 3.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 4.0 18.1 23.2
Transportation 18 6 34.9 11.3 27.0 24.6 22.1 17.4 18.1 14.3 11.9 3.7 3.2 2.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 15.1 14.6 15.9
Nifty-50 Index 1,566 868 39.8 15.4 12.3 21.6 19.1 16.8 12.0 10.4 9.2 3.2 2.9 2.6 1.5 1.8 1.9 14.8 15.3 15.5
Nifty-50 Index (ex-energy) 1,310 746 36.2 12.3 17.3 22.3 20.1 17.3 13.0 12.2 10.4 3.8 3.4 3.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 16.1 16.2 16.9
Nifty-50 Index (ex-banks) 1,282 650 39.9 13.0 12.4 22.6 20.5 17.9 12.0 10.4 9.2 3.4 3.1 2.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 15.3 15.7 15.9
Notes:
(a) Data for India is as per KIE estimates.
(b) 2021 column refers FY2022 for India. For other countries, numbers are on CY basis.
Source: Bloomberg
24 4 20
20
3 15
16
2 10
12
1 5
8
0 0
4
Jun-07
Jun-11
Jun-14
Jun-18
Jun-21
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-22
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-22
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
EV/EBITDA (X) Avg Mean+1SD Mean-1SD Yield gap (%) Earnings yields (%) 10-y G-sec yields (%)
18 16
15 12
12 8
9 4
0
6
Jun-11
Jun-13
Jun-15
Jun-17
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-12
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
(4)
3
Jun-11
Jun-13
Jun-15
Jun-22
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-12
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
(8)
P/E (X) Avg Mean+1SD Mean-1SD P/B (X) Avg Mean+1SD Mean-1SD RoE (%) (RHS)
28 5 25
24
4 20
20
3 15
16
12 2 10
8 1 5
4
Jun-09
Jun-12
Jun-16
Jun-20
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-21
Jun-22
0 0
Jun-08
Jun-10
Jun-15
Jun-17
Jun-22
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
EV/EBITDA (X) Avg Mean+1SD Mean-1SD Yield gap (%) Earnings yields (%) 10-y G-sec yields (%)
21 16
18
12
15
8
12
4
9
6 0 Jun-08
Jun-15
Jun-18
Jun-21
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-22
3 (4)
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-22
(8)
Performance of BSE-30 Index versus global indices (adjusted for currency changes) (%)
Taiwan Korea
Russia Taiwan
Indonesia % Change 1 week Germany % Change 6 month
Korea France
Japan Japan
Germany US (SPX)
Australia Philippines
India Australia
Philippines Russia
Singapore India
US (SPX) US (DOW)
Thailand UK
France Malaysia
Brazil Shanghai
US (DOW) Thailand
Mexico Mexico
Malaysia Hong Kong
UK Singapore
Shanghai Indonesia
Hong Kong Brazil
(7.0) (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 (35.0) (30.0) (25.0) (20.0) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0
Korea Germany
Germany France % Change YTD
Japan Japan
Brazil % Change 1 year
Philippines
Hong Kong
Taiwan US (SPX)
Philippines Australia
France Russia
Russia India
Australia US (DOW)
US (SPX) UK
Thailand Malaysia
UK Thailand
US (DOW)
Shanghai
Malaysia
Shanghai Mexico
Mexico Hong Kong
India Singapore
Singapore Indonesia
Indonesia Brazil
(50) (40) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 (30) (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5
Banks IT
% Change 1 week % Change 6 months
BSE Midcap Realty
Healthcare Metal
FMCG Healthcare
NIFTY BSE Smallcap
Auto BSE Midcap
Sensex Capital goods
Realty NIFTY
BSE Smallcap Sensex
IT Banks
Metal FMCG
Capital goods O&G
O&G Auto
(2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 (30) (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10
Metal IT
Healthcare % Change 1 year Realty % Change YTD
IT Metal
BSE Midcap Healthcare
Banks BSE Smallcap
BSE Smallcap BSE Midcap
NIFTY Capital goods
Sensex NIFTY
FMCG Sensex
Auto Banks
O&G FMCG
Realty O&G
Capital goods Auto
(20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 (30) (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10
FY2024 earnings upgrades (KIE) (1 month) FY2024 earnings downgrades (KIE) (1 month)
Company % Change Company % Change
1 ICICI Prudential Life 311.8 1 Apollo Tyres (24.7)
2 Oil India 85.4 2 FSN E-Commerce Ventures (23.7)
3 Bayer Cropscience 15.5 3 Vedanta (22.8)
4 Siemens 4.8 4 CEAT (20.8)
5 Sun TV Network 4.3 5 National Aluminium Co. (15.6)
6 TVS Motor 1.9 6 MRF (12.3)
7 Zomato 1.3 7 Bajaj Finance (9.6)
8 HDFC AMC (9.4)
9 L&T Technology Services (9.2)
10 Tech Mahindra (8.2)
11 Hindustan Zinc (8.1)
12 Hindalco Industries (8.0)
13 Mphasis (7.6)
14 Star Health and Allied Insurance (7.5)
15 Gland Pharma (6.0)
16 L&T Infotech (5.8)
17 HCL Technologies (5.8)
18 Mindtree (4.6)
19 TCS (3.5)
20 Wipro (3.4)
Net investments by FIIs, DIIs and MFs in the cash market (US$ mn) Net foreign flows in the derivatives market (US$ mn)
Notes:
(a) DII -Domestic Institutional Investors (Includes Bank, DFIs, Insurance, New Pension Scheme and MF).
FPI flows in the cash markets for the various countries (US$ mn)
CE Info Systems 10,396 1,033 1,412 37 Dec-21 Firstmeridian Business Services IPO Sanathan Textiles IPO
Five-Star Business Finance IPO Senco Gold * IPO
Shriram Properties 6,000 118 65 (45) Dec-21 Fusion Micro Finance IPO Shri Bajrang Power & Ispat * IPO
Rategain Travel Technologies 13,357 425 238 (44) Dec-21 Gemini Edibles & Fats India IPO Skanray Technologies IPO
Global Health IPO Snapdeal IPO
Anand Rathi Wealth 6,594 550 657 19 Dec-21
Go Airlines (India) IPO Sresta Natural Bioproducts IPO
Tega Industries 6,192 453 460 2 Dec-21 Godavari Biorefineries IPO Sterlite Power Transmission IPO
Gold Plus Glass Industry IPO Stitched Textiles IPO
Star Health & Allied Insurance 60,187 900 489 (46) Nov-21
Gpt Healthcare IPO Suraj Estate Developers IPO
Go Fashion 10,136 690 993 44 Nov-21 Gujarat Polysol Chemicals IPO Syrma Sgs Technology IPO
Harsha Engineers International IPO Tamilnad Mercantile Bank IPO
Tarsons Products 10,235 662 715 8 Nov-21
Healthium Medtech Pvt. IPO Tbo Tek IPO
Latent View Analytics 6,000 197 334 70 Nov-21 Hemani Industries * IPO Tracxn Technologies IPO
Hexagon Nutrition IPO Tvs Supply Chain Solutions IPO
Sapphire Foods 20,733 1,180 1,085 (8) Nov-21 Hma Agro Industries IPO Uniparts India * IPO
One97 Communications 183,000 2,150 676 (69) Nov-21 Imagine Marketing IPO Veeda Clinical Research IPO
India Exposition Mart IPO Vikram Solar IPO
SJS Enterprises 8,000 542 478 (12) Nov-21 India1 Payments IPO Vlcc Health Care * IPO
Sigachi Industries 1,254 163 264 62 Nov-21 Infinion Biopharma IPO Waaree Energies IPO
Inox Green Energy Services * IPO Wellness Forever Medicare IPO
PB Fintech 57,097 980 573 (42) Nov-21 Inspira Enterprise India IPO Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services IPO
Fino Payments Bank 12,003 577 240 (58) Oct-21 Jana Small Finance Bank IPO Yatra Online IPO
Jesons Industries IPO
FSN E-Commerce Ventures 53,497 1,125 1,407 25 Oct-21
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC 27,683 712 400 (44) Sep-21 Notes:
(a)Issues where offer document filed with Sebi, up till 17.06.2022.
Source: Bloomberg, Prime Database, Media reports, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Prime Database
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-20
Jul-09
Jul-12
Jul-15
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-21
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-21
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-13
Jan-16
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-22
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities
Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22
Industry
PMI manufacturing 55.4 55.5 50.8 48.1 55.3 52.3 53.7 55.9 57.6 55.5 54.0 54.9 55.9 54.7 54.6
Credit growth (industry) (0.5) (0.4) 1.1 0.2 1.3 2.5 2.5 4.1 3.8 7.6 6.5 7.6 7.5 8.1
Petroleum products consumption (industrials) 3.8 65.3 (14.7) (5.7) (2.4) (5.0) 4.7 4.8 (1.6) (8.0) (0.6) 0.2 (3.4) 15.8 17.8
Bitumen consumption 72.1 342.9 12.2 (23.4) 11.3 (2.8) (8.1) 0.0 (20.0) (8.6) 18.6 20.2 (1.0) (7.8) 6.1
Diesel consumption 27.8 105.2 0.7 (1.6) 11.3 15.7 0.4 (5.4) (7.6) 1.7 (6.5) (0.7) 6.7 7.9 31.7
Core infrastructure 12.6 62.6 16.4 9.4 9.9 12.2 5.4 8.7 3.2 4.1 4.0 6.0 4.9 8.4
IIP mining 6.1 36.5 23.6 23.1 19.5 23.3 8.6 11.5 4.9 2.6 3.0 4.5 3.9 7.8
IIP manufacturing 28.4 196.0 32.1 13.2 10.5 11.1 4.3 3.3 0.3 0.6 1.9 0.5 1.4 6.3
IIP electricity 22.5 38.5 7.5 8.3 11.1 16.0 0.9 3.1 2.1 2.8 0.9 4.5 6.1 11.8
IIP coal 0.3 9.5 7.0 7.4 18.8 20.6 7.8 14.7 8.2 5.2 8.2 6.8 (0.1) 28.8
Railways freight traffic 33.2 87.1 55.8 27.1 21.4 20.0 9.0 20.6 14.3 8.3 11.4 10.9 11.1 17.7 21.0
Steel production 40.4 489.8 53.6 23.7 9.8 4.9 6.6 4.3 10.1 2.8 5.9 2.1 9.7 1.3 18.8
Services
PMI services 54.6 54.0 54.0 41.2 45.4 56.7 55.2 58.4 58.1 55.5 51.5 51.8 53.6 57.9 58.9
Credit growth (services) 3.9 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.5 1.9 0.8 2.9 3.6 10.7 6.1 5.9 8.7 11.1
Airport passenger traffic 0.7 631.8 53.0 132.9 131.6 74.9 66.7 65.1 52.7 (16.8) (1.3) 36.4 85.9 493.0
Airport cargo 30.4 1,390.8 210.2 28.7 45.7 46.3 19.9 13.1 6.2 10.6 2.3 (2.2) 3.5 11.9
Foreign tourist arrivals (62.5) 2,691.4 253.5 242.2 410.2 329.9 278.8 337.0 255.0 235.5 140.4 141.8 177.9 399.2
Demand
Credit growth (personal loans) 10.3 12.1 11.8 11.3 11.1 12.1 12.1 11.7 11.6 14.2 12.3 12.6 12.6 14.7
Center's expenditure (net of interest payments) 366.2 (29.7) 25.6 11.8 (29.4) 42.3 61.2 6.8 (3.9) 20.1 25.5 6.6 (9.7) 18.5
Fuel consumption (retail) 20.6 74.5 0.9 1.7 10.5 11.6 2.3 (1.9) (4.8) 1.3 (4.3) 1.3 6.7 8.5 27.6
Passenger vehicle sales 115.2 162.5 119.3 44.7 7.6 (41.2) (27.1) (18.6) (13.3) (8.1) (6.5) (3.9) (3.8) 185.1
Two wheeler sales 72.7 26.1 4.0 (2.1) (14.6) (17.4) (24.9) (34.4) (10.8) (21.1) (27.3) (20.9) 15.4 255.3
Non-oil imports 80.3 183.7 52.2 92.1 53.7 54.7 61.2 47.2 40.9 31.5 22.3 26.7 7.7 13.7 50.0
0
2
6
8
4
10
5
6
7
8
9
May-16 Jun-12
Dec-12
Nov-16
Jun-13
Dec-13
May-17
Jun-14
Nov-17 Dec-14
Key economic parameters
Jun-15
Jun-16
Nov-18
May-19 Jun-17
Nov-19
10-y G-sec yield (%)
Jun-18
Dec-18
May-20
Jun-19
Nov-20 Dec-19
Jun-20
May-21
Dec-20
Jun-21
Nov-21
7.04 Dec-21
7.45
May-22 Jun-22
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jun-12 Jun-10
Dec-12 Dec-10
Jun-11
Jun-13
Dec-11
Dec-13
Jun-12
Jun-14
Dec-12
Dec-14 Jun-13
Jun-15 Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-15
Dec-14
Jun-16
Jun-15
Dec-16
Dec-15
INR/US$
Jun-17 Jun-16
Dec-17 Dec-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
Dec-17
Dec-18
Jun-18
Jun-19 Dec-18
Dec-19 Jun-19
Jun-20 Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Jun-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
115
78.97
Jun-22 Jun-22
26
1,100
100
700
300
500
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
700
900
Jun-12 Jun-12
Dec-12 Dec-12
Jun-13 Jun-13
Dec-13 Dec-13
Jun-14 Jun-14
Dec-14 Dec-14
Prices of key commodities
COMMODITIES
Dec-15 Dec-15
Dec-16 Dec-16
Jun-17 Jun-17
Steel (US$/ton)
Gold (US$/OZ)
Dec-17 Dec-17
Jun-18 Jun-18
Dec-18 Dec-18
Jun-19 Jun-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Jun-21 Jun-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
Jun-22 Jun-22
10
25
40
15
20
30
35
0
5
40
120
200
440
520
280
360
Jun-12
Jun-12
Dec-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Jun-13
Dec-13
Dec-13
Jun-14 Jun-14
Dec-14 Dec-14
Jun-15 Jun-15
Dec-15 Dec-15
Jun-16 Jun-16
Dec-16 Dec-16
Jun-17 Jun-17
Silver (US$/OZ)
Dec-17 Dec-17
Jun-18 Jun-18
Dec-18 Dec-18
Jun-19 Jun-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Richards Bay coal prices - thermal (US$/ton)
Jun-20 Jun-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Jun-21 Jun-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
27
Jun-22 Jun-22
1,000
2,500
4,000
4,500
1,500
2,000
3,000
3,500
10,000
12,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Jun-12
Jun-12
Dec-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Jun-13
Dec-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Jun-14
Dec-14 Dec-14
Prices of key commodities
Jun-15
COMMODITIES
Jun-15
Jun-16 Jun-16
Jun-17 Jun-17
Dec-17 Dec-17
Dec-18 Dec-18
Jun-19 Jun-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Jun-21 Jun-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
Jun-22 Jun-22
1,500
3,000
1,000
2,500
4,000
1,000
2,000
2,500
1,500
2,000
3,000
3,500
4,500
5,000
500
Jun-12 Jun-12
Dec-12 Dec-12
Jun-13 Jun-13
Dec-13 Dec-13
Jun-14 Jun-14
Dec-14 Dec-14
Jun-15 Jun-15
Dec-15 Dec-15
Jun-16 Jun-16
Dec-16 Dec-16
Jun-17 Jun-17
Dec-17 Dec-17
LME Zinc (US$/ton)
Jun-18 Jun-18
LME Lead (US$/ton)
Dec-18 Dec-18
Jun-19 Jun-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Jun-21 Jun-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
Jun-22
Jun-22
28
KOTAK VALUATION SUMMARY
VALUATION SUMMARY
Kotak Institutional Equities Universe
Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADVT-3M
Company Rating 30-Jun-22 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E (US$ mn)
Automobiles & Components
Amara Raja Batteries SELL 459 500 9 78 1.0 171 30 36 44 (21) 19 23 15 13 11 8 6 5 1.7 1.6 1.4 12 13 14 1.0 1.6 1.9 3
Apollo Tyres REDUCE 185 175 (5) 118 1.5 638 10 10 15 (20) (4) 55 18 19 12 7 6 5 1.0 1.0 0.9 6 5 8 1.6 1.9 2.2 10
Ashok Leyland BUY 148 150 1 434 5.5 2,936 1 4 7 153 677 77 273 35 20 45 18 12 5.7 5.2 4.5 2 15 24 0.7 1.1 2.0 26
Bajaj Auto ADD 3,707 4,100 11 1,073 14 289 165 186 220 5 12 18 22 20 17 16 14 12 4.0 3.9 3.7 19 20 22 3.8 4.0 4.7 27
Balkrishna Industries SELL 2,159 1,775 (18) 417 5.3 193 74 85 88 22 14 4 29 26 24 19 16 15 6.0 5.2 4.5 22 22 20 1.3 1.2 1.3 9
Bharat Forge REDUCE 652 660 1 303 3.8 466 23 24 33 948 5 36 28 27 20 18 15 12 4.6 4.1 3.5 18 16 19 0.8 0.9 1.0 12
CEAT SELL 929 850 (9) 38 0.5 40 20 10 68 (83) (49) 589 47 94 14 8 8 6 1.1 1.2 1.1 2 1 8 0.3 1.3 1.9 2
Eicher Motors SELL 2,794 2,250 (19) 764 9.7 272 62 91 114 25 47 25 45 31 25 31 22 18 7.0 6.1 5.3 16 21 23 0.8 0.9 0.9 26
Endurance Technologies ADD 1,412 1,320 (6) 199 2.5 141 34 45 61 (8) 33 33 41 31 23 20 15 12 5.1 4.5 3.9 12 15 17 0.4 0.8 1.0 3
Escorts Kubota REDUCE 1,445 1,600 11 160 2.6 111 76 83 92 (12) 9 11 19 17 16 17 13 12 1.9 1.8 1.7 10 11 11 0.5 0.9 1.0 13
Exide Industries REDUCE 138 155 12 117 1.5 850 9 10 11 1 16 8 15 13 12 8 7 7 1.1 1.0 1.0 9 8 8 1.5 1.8 1.8 4
Hero Motocorp REDUCE 2,720 2,450 (10) 543 6.9 200 124 152 180 (17) 23 18 22 18 15 13 10 9 3.4 3.3 3.1 16 19 21 3.5 3.9 4.6 30
Mahindra CIE Automotive SELL 233 215 (8) 88 1.1 378 11 18 20 277 67 10 22 13 12 9 7 6 1.7 1.5 1.4 8 12 12 — — — 3
Mahindra & Mahindra BUY 1,093 1,180 8 1,359 17.2 1,159 44 53 62 54 20 18 25 21 18 19 15 12 3.3 2.9 2.5 14 15 15 1.1 0.7 0.9 54
Maruti Suzuki SELL 8,471 7,150 (16) 2,559 32.4 302 125 207 300 (12) 66 45 68 41 28 37 24 17 4.7 4.4 4.0 7 11 15 0.7 1.0 1.4 72
Minda Industries ADD 923 950 3 264 3.3 286 12 21 28 65 72 32 74 43 32 31 22 17 7.7 6.5 5.4 10 15 17 0.2 0.3 0.4 4
Motherson Sumi Systems ADD 118 140 18 534 6.8 4,518 1 2 6 (28) 68 196 98 59 20 14 13 8 2.6 2.5 2.3 3 4 12 0.6 0.5 0.6 14
MRF SELL 70,801 55,000 (22) 300 3.8 4 1,578 1,702 3,008 (48) 8 77 45 42 24 14 13 9 2.1 2.0 1.9 5 5 8 0.2 0.1 0.2 9
Schaeffler India ADD 2,290 2,250 (2) 358 4.5 156 40 57 67 116 41 18 57 40 34 35 26 22 9.8 8.5 7.4 19 23 23 0.1 0.1 0.1 3
SKF SELL 3,638 2,750 (24) 180 2.3 49 80 98 115 33 22 18 46 37 32 32 26 22 9.5 7.9 6.5 21 21 21 0.3 0.4 0.5 2
Sona BLW Precision SELL 554 550 (1) 324 4.1 583 6 7 11 65 17 53 89 76 50 58 44 31 16.1 13.8 11.2 21 19 25 0.1 0.2 0.4 7
Tata Motors BUY 412 470 14 1,577 18.6 3,829 (28) 13 39 (654) 147 196 NM 32 11 9 6 4 3.5 3.2 2.5 NM 11 26 — — — 104
Timken SELL 2,377 2,000 (16) 179 2.3 75 43 60 75 128 39 24 55 39 32 35 26 21 10.8 8.8 7.1 22 25 25 0.1 0.1 0.1 3
TVS Motor SELL 842 600 (29) 400 5.1 475 19 26 34 46 40 28 45 32 25 21 17 13 8.3 6.9 5.6 20 24 25 0.4 0.5 0.7 17
Varroc Engineering ADD 300 500 67 46 0.6 153 (63) (23) 6 (36) 64 127 NM NM 50 68 10 6 2.2 2.6 2.5 NM NM 5 — — — 5
Automobiles & Components Cautious 12,411 156.3 (28.5) 153.3 53.2 74.8 29.5 19.3 16.8 12.3 9.1 4.0 3.6 3.2 5.3 12.3 16.6 1.0 1.1 1.3 459
Banks
AU Small Finance Bank SELL 592 575 (3) 373 4.7 630 18 21 26 (4) 16 27 33 28 22 — — — 5.1 4.4 3.7 16 16 17 — — — 24
Axis Bank BUY 637 960 51 1,956 24.8 3,070 42 55 72 97 29 32 15 12 9 — — — 1.8 1.6 1.5 12 14 17 1.0 1.3 0.8 86
Bandhan Bank ADD 264 360 37 424 5.4 1,611 1 32 40 (94) 4,000 25 337 8 7 — — — 2.6 2.0 1.6 1 27 27 — 2.4 3.0 39
Bank of Baroda ADD 97 110 13 504 6.4 5,178 14 19 26 777 35 39 7 5 4 — — — 0.7 0.6 0.5 9 11 14 1.2 3.9 5.4 37
Canara Bank ADD 181 260 43 329 4.2 1,814 31 33 40 101 6 21 6 5 5 — — — 0.7 0.6 0.6 9 9 10 4— 4— 5— 25
City Union Bank ADD 133 145 9 98 1.2 740 10 11 14 28 6 26 13 12 10 — — — 1.7 1.5 1.3 12 12 13 0.8 1.6 2.1 4
DCB Bank BUY 74 145 95 23 0.3 311 9 17 22 (14) 81 32 8 4 3 — — — 0.7 0.6 0.5 8 13 15 1.3 3.6 4.7 2
Equitas Small Finance Bank ADD 39 56 42 49 0.6 1,252 2 4 5 (34) 79 33 18 10 7 — — — 1.2 1.1 0.9 7 11 13 — — — 1
Federal Bank BUY 90 120 33 190 2.4 2,103 9 12 14 9 36 16 10 7 6 — — — 1.1 1.0 0.9 11 13 14 2.0 2.7 3.2 16
HDFC Bank BUY 1,348 1,650 22 7,488 94.8 5,546 67 71 76 18 7 7 20 19 18 — — — 3.2 2.8 2.3 17 15 16 1.0 1.1 1.1 194
ICICI Bank BUY 707 975 38 4,919 62.3 6,950 34 40 45 43 19 12 21 18 16 — — — 3.0 2.7 2.4 15 15 15 0.8 1.1 1.3 131
IndusInd Bank ADD 794 1,050 32 616 7.8 775 60 88 110 62 48 25 13 9 7 — — — 1.3 1.2 1.0 10 14 15 1.1 1.6 2.0 35
Karur Vysya Bank BUY 45 70 56 36 0.5 800 8 12 16 87 44 29 5 4 3 — — — 0.5 0.5 0.4 9 12 14 3.6 7.0 9.0 2
Punjab National Bank REDUCE 29 30 3 319 4.0 11,011 3 5 6 63 52 27 9 6 5 — — — 0.5 0.4 0.4 4 6 7 2 3 4 15
RBL Bank RS 83 — (100) 50 0.6 600 (1) 20 29 (115) 1,740 44 NM 4 3 — — — 0.4 0.4 0.3 NM 9 12 (0.1) 2.5 5.3 31
SBI Cards and Payment Services BUY 768 1,150 50 725 9.2 943 17 25 35 64 43 43 45 31 22 — — — 9.3 7.3 5.5 23 26 29 0.2 0.2 0.2 26
State Bank of India BUY 466 700 50 4,158 52.6 8,925 35 52 58 53 50 11 13 9 8 — — — 1.7 1.5 1.3 12 16 15 1.5 2.0 2.4 91
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank BUY 15 20 33 26 0.3 1,728 (3) 3 4 (4,058) 202 47 NM 6 4 — — — 1.0 0.9 0.7 NM 15 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
Union Bank ADD 34 45 31 234 3.0 6,835 8 8 11 72 (2) 50 4 5 3 — — — 0.5 0.4 0.4 8 7 10 5.5 5.4 8.2 5
YES Bank SELL 13 13 3 317 4.0 25,055 0 0 1 131 (56) 180 30 67 24 — — — 1.1 1.1 1.0 3 1 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 21
Banks Attractive 22,834 289.0 53.2 30.5 26.2 16.5 12.7 10.0 1.8 1.6 1.3 10.7 12.5 13.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 785
Kotak
KotakInstitutional
InstitutionalEquities Research
Equities Research 30
30
VALUATION SUMMARY
Kotak Institutional Equities Universe
Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADVT-3M
Company Rating 30-Jun-22 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E (US$ mn)
Building Products
Astral SELL 1,656 1,530 (8) 333 4.2 201 26 31 39 28 18 29 64 54 42 40 34 27 14.3 11.9 10.0 25 24 26 0.3 0.4 0.7 9
Building Products Cautious 333 4.2 28.0 18.5 28.5 64.2 54.2 42.2 40.5 34.1 27.0 14.3 11.9 10.0 22 22 24 0.3 0.4 0.7 9
Capital goods
ABB ADD 2,301 2,380 3 488 6.2 212 19 27 39 140 41 44 119 84 58 83 52 41 12.1 10.9 9.5 11 14 17 0.2 0.3 0.3 8
Bharat Electronics REDUCE 234 240 3 570 7.2 2,437 10 10 11 14 2 10 24 23 21 15 15 13 4.6 4.3 3.9 21 19 19 0.6 2.0 2.2 24
BHEL SELL 45 32 (29) 157 2.0 3,482 1 (0) 2 115 (130) 684 38 NM 22 18 74 8 0.6 0.6 0.6 2 NM 3 0.0 (0.3) 1.5 17
Carborundum Universal ADD 715 820 15 136 1.7 190 18 23 28 17 30 22 41 31 26 25 19 16 5.7 5.1 4.5 15 17 19 0.3 0.9 1.1 2
Cochin Shipyard BUY 312 450 44 41 0.5 132 45 32 32 (4) (28) (0) 7 10 10 2 3 3 0.9 0.9 0.9 14 9 9 1.2 4.4 4.6 1
Cummins India BUY 1,024 1,280 25 284 3.6 277 30 36 43 30 22 18 34 28 24 31 25 21 5.9 5.4 4.9 18 20 22 1.0 2.0 2.3 7
G R Infraprojects SELL 1,097 1,236 13 106 1.3 97 79 90 102 (3) 14 14 14 12 11 9 8 7 2.4 2.0 1.7 17 17 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 1
IRB Infrastructure BUY 202 315 56 122 1.5 604 6 10 15 208 73 45 34 19 13 10 8 7 1.0 0.9 0.9 4 5 7 0.7 1.3 2.0 4
Kalpataru Power Transmission BUY 356 430 21 53 0.7 164 20 34 43 (36) 71 27 18 11 8 6 4 3 1.4 1.2 1.1 8 12 14 1.8 0.9 1.1 1
KEC International BUY 391 465 19 101 1.3 257 15 23 36 (32) 57 56 27 17 11 14 9 7 2.8 2.4 2.0 11 15 20 0.4 0.6 1.0 2
L&T BUY 1,558 2,025 30 2,190 27.7 1,405 61 74 97 26 21 31 26 21 16 18 15 13 3.2 3.0 2.7 13 14 18 1.4 2.0 2.6 47
Siemens REDUCE 2,400 2,300 (4) 855 10.8 356 39 46 56 31 20 21 62 52 43 41 34 29 7.6 6.9 6.2 13 14 15 0.4 0.5 0.6 8
Thermax ADD 2,097 2,100 0 250 3.2 113 28 42 55 20 51 32 76 50 38 58 38 29 57.9 38.4 28.9 9 13 16 0.4 1.2 1.6 2
Capital goods Attractive 5,351 67.7 52.9 16.5 31.5 31.4 26.9 20.5 19.1 16.5 13.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 10.4 11.4 13.8 0.9 1.4 1.8 123
Commercial & Professional Services
SIS BUY 454 600 32 67 0.8 148 22 23 31 (10) 6 33 21 19 15 14 13 10 3.2 2.9 2.5 17 16 18 1.2 1.3 1.7 1
TeamLease Services BUY 3,236 4,200 30 55 0.7 17 23 94 124 (33) 306 32 140 35 26 37 29 22 8.0 6.5 5.2 5.9 21 22 — — — 1
Commercial & Professional Services
Neutral 122 1.5 (14.2) 38.3 32.8 33.4 24.2 18.2 19.4 16.3 13.1 4.4 3.8 3.3 13.2 15.9 17.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 2
Commodity Chemicals
Asian Paints REDUCE 2,695 3,150 17 2,585 32.7 959 33 45 55 0 38 22 82 60 49 53 40 33 18.7 16.7 14.8 24 30 32 0.7 1.0 1.3 52
Berger Paints REDUCE 568 610 7 552 7.0 971 9 12 15 16 38 23 66 48 39 42 31 25 14.1 12.2 10.5 23 27 29 0.6 1.0 1.2 6
Kansai Nerolac REDUCE 371 415 12 200 2.5 539 7 9 13 (31) 33 42 54 41 29 32 25 18 4.8 4.5 4.3 9 12 15 0.6 1.4 2.1 1
Tata Chemicals BUY 793 1,090 37 202 2.6 255 50 67 74 393 35 11 16 12 11 8 6 6 1.1 1.0 1.0 8 9 9 1.6 2.1 2.4 18
Commodity Chemicals Cautious 3,539 44.8 20.7 36.7 20.9 63.0 46.1 38.1 38.7 29.0 24.2 8.8 8.0 7.3 14.0 17.5 19.20 0.7 1.1 1.4 78
Construction Materials
ACC ADD 2,122 2,180 3 398 5.0 188 97 86 122 29 (11) 42 22 25 17 11 12 9 2.8 2.7 2.5 14 11 15 2.7 2.0 2.9 19
Ambuja Cements REDUCE 363 350 (4) 721 9.1 1,986 15 12 16 8 (15) 33 25 29 22 10 11 8 2.8 2.6 2.4 12 9 11 1.7 0.7 0.8 37
Dalmia Bharat ADD 1,284 1,600 25 241 3.0 185 62 35 57 (6) (43) 62 21 37 23 10 10 8 1.5 1.5 1.4 8 4 6 1 — 1 5
Grasim Industries ADD 1,321 1,500 14 869 11.0 658 109 104 130 60 (4) 25 12 13 10 7 6 5 1.1 1.1 1.0 10 9 10 0.8 0.4 0.5 22
J K Cement SELL 2,109 1,820 (14) 163 2.1 77 89 69 106 (5) (23) 55 24 31 20 12 14 11 3.8 3.4 3.0 17 12 16 0.7 0.5 0.5 6
Nuvoco Vistas Corp ADD 297 350 18 106 1.3 357 1 1 14 209 40 1,008 330 236 21 11 11 7 1.2 1.2 1.1 0 1 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1
Orient Cement BUY 116 140 21 24 0.3 205 13 8 12 23 (40) 60 9 15 9 4 7 7 1.6 1.4 1.3 19 10 15 2.2 1.7 1.7 1
Shree Cement SELL 19,010 15,500 (18) 686 8.7 36 659 501 740 3 (24) 48 29 38 26 18 20 14 4.0 3.6 3.3 15 10 13 0.5 0.4 0.6 12
The Ramco Cements SELL 637 540 (15) 150 1.9 236 38 18 37 17 (54) 113 17 36 17 15 16 10 2.3 2.1 1.9 14 6 12 0.0 0.3 0.6 5
UltraTech Cement REDUCE 5,607 6,200 11 1,619 20.5 289 249 209 298 29 (16) 42 23 27 19 14 14 11 3.2 2.9 2.6 15 11 15 0.7 0.6 0.8 35
Construction Materials Cautious 4,977 63.0 26.5 (15.8) 40.4 20.4 24.2 17.2 10.5 10.6 8.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 11.1 8.7 11.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 142
Kotak
KotakInstitutional
InstitutionalEquities Research
Equities Research 31
31
VALUATION SUMMARY
Kotak Institutional Equities Universe
Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADVT-3M
Company Rating 30-Jun-22 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E (US$ mn)
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Crompton Greaves Consumer ADD 340 400 18 216 2.7 628 9 11 14 (4) 18 23 36 31 25 29 23 19 8.7 7.2 5.8 27 26 26 1.6 0.7 0.7 7
Havells India REDUCE 1,098 1,235 12 688 8.7 626 19 25 29 15 31 17 57 44 38 37 33 28 11.8 10.4 9.1 22 25 26 0.7 0.9 1.1 15
Page Industries SELL 40,167 38,350 (5) 448 5.7 11 481 613 742 58 27 21 84 66 54 57 45 37 41.2 34.8 29.9 54 58 59 0.9 1.2 1.5 13
Polycab REDUCE 2,201 2,450 11 329 4.2 149 56 79 92 (0) 41 15 39 28 24 26 19 16 5.9 5.2 4.5 16 20 20 0.6 0.9 1.0 13
TCNS Clothing Co. SELL 534 500 (6) 33 0.4 69 (1) 14 17 92 1,787 16 NM 37 32 40 15 11.6 5.8 4.8 4.0 NM 14 14 — — — 1
Voltas SELL 972 875 (10) 322 4.1 331 15 19 25 (4) 25 31 64 51 39 47 37 30 5.8 5.5 5.1 10 11 14 0.6 0.7 0.9 18
Whirlpool SELL 1,561 1,425 (9) 198 2.5 127 19 34 45 (31) 77 33 82 46 35 44 25 20 5.9 5.4 4.8 8 12 14 0.3 0.4 0.6 4
Consumer Durables & Apparel Cautious 2,234 28.3 6.8 35.5 20.9 57.3 42.3 35.0 37.9 29.0 24.1 9.2 8.1 7.1 16.0 19.2 20.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 71
Consumer Staples
Britannia Industries ADD 3,466 3,700 7 835 10.6 241 63 67 85 (18) 6 26 55 51 41 39 36 29 32.6 33.1 26.7 50 63 72 2.0 1.7 2.0 16
Colgate-Palmolive (India) ADD 1,487 1,675 13 404 5.1 272 40 41 46 4 4 12 38 36 32 25 24 22 23.3 22.7 21.5 74 64 69 2.7 2.6 3.0 7
Dabur India ADD 496 575 16 879 11.1 1,768 10 11 13 7 8 16 48 44 38 39 36 31 10.5 9.7 8.9 23 23 24 1.0 1.2 1.4 14
Godrej Consumer Products BUY 758 925 22 775 9.8 1,023 18 18 23 2 4 24 43 41 33 32 29 24 6.7 7.0 6.4 17 17 20 1.3 1.5 1.8 16
Hindustan Unilever BUY 2,231 2,525 13 5,241 66.3 2,350 37 41 49 10 10 22 60 55 45 41 38 32 10.8 10.5 10.0 18 19 23 1.5 1.6 2.0 56
ITC BUY 274 310 13 3,370 42.7 12,342 12 14 15 15 15 8 22 19 18 16 14 13 5.5 5.3 5.2 24 27 29 4.2 4.4 4.8 66
Jyothy Laboratories ADD 150 160 7 55 0.7 367 4 6 8 (26) 26 36 34 27 20 22 18 13 3.8 3.8 3.6 11 14 19 3.0 3.3 3.7 1
Marico REDUCE 478 505 6 618 7.8 1,290 9 11 12 5 11 16 50 45 39 36 32 27 18.4 17.2 16.1 37 39 43 1.7 1.8 2.1 12
Nestle India ADD 17,470 19,100 9 1,684 21.3 96 247 265 314 14 7 19 71 66 56 48 43 37 80.8 69.6 60.2 116 113 116 1.1 1.3 1.6 17
Tata Consumer Products ADD 706 785 11 651 8.2 922 11 14 16 11 27 19 66 52 44 37 30 26 4.3 4.1 3.9 7 8 9 0.9 1.0 1.1 18
United Breweries ADD 1,453 1,725 19 384 4.9 264 14 28 36 204 100 30 105 52 40 54 32 25 9.8 8.7 8.0 10 18 21 0.7 1.4 1.9 7
United Spirits ADD 760 940 24 552 7.0 727 13 15 19 112 11 26 56 51 40 36 33 27 10.7 9.4 8.2 21 20 22 0.0 0.7 0.9 13
Varun Beverages BUY 791 850 8 514 6.5 650 11 19 22 75 77 18 74 42 35 33 22 19 12.6 9.9 7.9 18 26 25 0.2 0.2 0.3 15
Consumer Staples Attractive 15,962 202.0 12.6 13.9 15.6 43.4 38.1 32.9 30.6 26.8 23.2 9.4 9.0 8.5 22 24 26 1.9 2.1 2.4 258
Diversified Financials
Aavas Financiers ADD 2,015 2,150 7 159 2.0 79 45 52 62 23 15 20 45 39 32 — — — 5.7 4.9 4.3 14 14 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 3
Aditya Birla Capital NR 89 — — 216 2.7 2,414 6 8 10 24 43 24 16 11 9 — — — 1.4 1.3 1.1 10 12 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 6
Aptus Value Housing Finance ADD 282 275 — 140 1.8 497 8 8 10 36 12 14 37 33 29 — — — 4.8 4.2 3.7 15 13 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 1
Bajaj Finance REDUCE 5,401 5,100 (6) 3,270 41.4 603 116 159 190 59 37 19 46 34 28 — — — 7.5 6.2 5.2 17 20 20 0.4 0.3 0.4 108
Bajaj Finserv ADD 10,932 13,300 22 1,740 22.0 159 286 516 633 2 80 23 38 21 17 — — — 4.3 4.1 3.5 12 20 22 0.1 0.1 0.1 54
Cholamandalam ADD 620 750 21 509 6.4 821 26 30 37 42 16 23 24 20 17 — — — 4.6 3.9 3.2 20 19 20 0.3 0.4 0.5 19
Computer Age Management Services SELL 2,258 2,050 (9) 110 1.4 49 59 62 68 39 6 10 38 36 33 — — — 17.0 14.5 12.4 49 43 40 1.7 1.8 2.0 6
HDFC BUY 2,171 2,750 27 3,939 49.9 1,813 76 83 94 14 10 13 29 26 23 — — — 3.3 3.0 2.7 12 12 12 1.1 1.2 1.3 143
HDFC AMC ADD 1,792 1,900 6 382 4.8 214 65 70 77 5 7 10 27 26 23 — — — 6.9 6.2 5.6 27 26 25 2.3 2.5 2.8 15
Home First Finance BUY 743 910 23 65 0.8 88 21 25 31 85 19 22 35 29 24 — — — 4.1 3.6 3.2 13 13 14 — — — 1
IIFL Wealth BUY 1,485 2,025 36 132 1.7 89 64 72 84 54 12 17 23 21 18 — — — 4.6 4.2 3.9 20 21 23 3.7 3.6 4.2 2
L&T Finance Holdings ADD 68 110 63 167 2.1 2,474 4 8 10 13 77 26 16 9 7 — — — 0.8 0.7 0.6 5 17 10 0.7 0.7 0.7 11
LIC Housing Finance BUY 327 600 83 180 2.3 550 42 65 74 (23) 56 14 8 5 4 — — — 0.9 0.8 0.7 10 14 14 2.6 4.0 4.6 16
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial ADD 175 210 20 217 2.7 1,233 8 16 20 194 103 20 22 11 9 — — — 1.5 1.4 1.2 7 12 14 2.1 4.2 2.2 10
Muthoot Finance REDUCE 976 1,200 23 392 5.0 401 99 114 132 6 16 16 10 9 7 — — — 2.1 1.8 1.5 24 23 22 2.0 2.3 2.7 10
Shriram City Union Finance BUY 1,661 2,600 57 111 1.4 67 163 179 225 6 10 25 10 9 7 — — — 1.3 1.2 1.0 13 13 14 2.2 1.6 2.0 2
Shriram Transport BUY 1,281 1,675 31 347 4.4 373 100 138 159 2 38 15 13 9 8 — — — 1.4 1.2 1.1 11 16 14 1.6 1.6 1.9 18
Diversified Financials Attractive 12,075 152.8 18.1 34.3 17.8 27.4 20.4 17.3 3.3 2.9 2.5 12.2 14.3 14.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 426
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VALUATION SUMMARY
Kotak Institutional Equities Universe
Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADVT-3M
Company Rating 30-Jun-22 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E (US$ mn)
Electric Utilities
CESC BUY 71 105 48 94 1.2 1,326 10 13 14 2 23 13 7 6 5 6 4 4 0.8 0.7 0.6 11 13 13 1.7 2.8 2.9 2
JSW Energy SELL 208 115 (45) 342 4.3 1,640 7 6 7 36 (10) 26 32 35 28 12 13 12 2.0 1.9 1.8 7 5 7 1.0 1.0 1.0 3
NHPC ADD 31 36 17 309 3.9 10,045 4 4 4 5 17 2 9 7 7 11 8 7 0.9 0.8 0.8 10 12 11 5.8 7.7 7.8 6
NTPC ADD 143 165 15 1,386 17.5 9,895 17 18 20 3 7 11 8.5 7.9 7 9 8 7 1.0 0.9 0.9 12 12 13 4.8 4.8 5.3 45
Power Grid BUY 212 245 16 1,478 18.7 6,975 19 21 22 4 9 4 11.0 10.1 10 8 7 7 1.9 1.8 1.7 18 19 18 7.0 6.2 6.4 35
Tata Power SELL 202 220 9 646 8.2 3,196 7 7 9 84 (6) 23 27 29 24 15 15 14 2.9 2.6 2.4 11 9 11 — — — 113
Electric Utilities Attractive 4,255 53.9 7.0 8.1 8.5 11.1 10.2 9.4 8.8 7.9 7.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 12.7 12.8 12.9 4.6 4.4 4.7 204
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Bayer Cropscience SELL 5,007 4,700 (6) 225 2.8 45 134 159 188 3 19 18 37 31 27 27 22 19 8.9 7.3 6.0 24 25 25 0.5 0.6 0.8 1
Dhanuka Agritech REDUCE 695 725 4 32 0.4 47 45 47 52 1 4 11 15 15 13 12 11 10 3.4 2.9 2.6 24 21 21 2.0 2.4 3.1 0
Godrej Agrovet ADD 507 580 14 97 1.2 192 22 24 29 34 11 19 23 21 17 17 14 12 3.6 3.3 2.9 16 16 18 1.9 2.2 2.6 4
Rallis India REDUCE 189 230 22 37 0.5 195 8 10 11 (26) 16 17 22 19 16 13 12 10 2.2 2.0 1.9 10 11 12 1.6 1.9 2.1 2
UPL BUY 632 910 44 475 6.0 765 50 60 70 27 20 16 13 11 9 7 6 5 2.2 1.9 1.6 18 19 20 1.6 2.0 2.4 26
Fertilizers & Agricultural ChemicalsCautious 866 11.0 19.2 24.0 18.9 17.7 14.3 12.0 9.5 8.0 6.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 16.6 17.7 18.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 33
Gas Utilities
GAIL (India) BUY 135 200 48 593 7.5 4,440 23 19 19 115 (20) (0) 6 7 7 5 6 6 1.1 1.0 0.9 20 14 13 7.4 5.2 5.5 23
GSPL SELL 218 260 19 123 1.6 564 13 9 9 (21) (31) 4 17 24 23 6 9 8 1.5 1.4 1.4 9 6 6 1.2 1.0 1.3 3
Indraprastha Gas ADD 356 415 17 249 3.2 700 22 24 27 31 8 12 16 15 13 13 11 10 3.6 3.2 2.8 24 22 22 1.5 2.0 2.5 14
Mahanagar Gas BUY 761 1,050 38 75 1.0 99 60 80 83 (4) 32 4 13 10 9 8 6 5 2.1 1.9 1.7 17 21 19 3.3 4.9 5.6 5
Petronet LNG BUY 217 250 15 326 4.1 1,500 22 18 21 14 (18) 14 10 12 10 6 6 6 2.4 2.2 2.0 27 20 20 5.3 4.3 5.0 7
Gas Utilities Attractive 1,366 17.3 58.1 (15.6) 4.5 8.2 9.8 9.3 5.7 6.5 6.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 18.9 14.6 14.0 5.1 4.0 4.5 51
Health Care Services
Apollo Hospitals BUY 3,684 4,710 28 530 6.7 144 53 72 98 749 36 35 70 51 38 25 23 19 9.4 8.4 7.4 15 17 21 0.8 0.8 1.1 43
Aster DM Healthcare BUY 178 240 35 89 1.1 500 9 11 13 220 20 18 19 16 13 7 6 5 2.2 2.0 1.8 13 14 14 — — — 2
Dr Lal Pathlabs SELL 2,160 1,900 (12) 180 2.3 83 44 35 42 26 (21) 20 49 62 52 32 31 27 11.9 10.8 9.7 27 18 20 0.9 0.7 0.9 11
Max Healthcare ADD 367 410 12 356 4.5 970 9 10 11 77 10 14 40 37 32 27 25 22 5.3 4.6 4.1 14 13 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 13
Metropolis Healthcare REDUCE 1,406 1,575 12 72 0.9 51 39 36 43 7 (7) 21 36 39 32 21 22 19 8.1 7.2 6.3 25 19 21 0.9 0.8 0.9 9
Narayana Hrudayalaya ADD 630 645 2 129 1.6 204 17 18 21 2,490 7 19 38 35 30 20 17 15 8.7 6.9 5.6 26 22 21 — — — 1
Health Care Services Attractive 1,355 17.2 153.3 12.9 22.4 44.8 39.7 32.5 21.1 19.2 16.4 6.7 5.9 5.2 15.0 14.9 16.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 80
Hotels & Restaurants
Devyani International ADD 155 151 (3) 187 2.4 1,204 1 2 2 304 5 38 106 102 73 39 29 23 27.2 21.5 16.6 44 24 26 0.0 0.0 0.0 4
Jubilant Foodworks ADD 512 615 20 338 4.3 660 7 8 10 89 28 18 78 61 51 30 24 20 17.3 13.9 11.2 26 25 24 0.2 0.2 0.2 29
Lemon Tree Hotels ADD 61 64 5 48 0.6 791 (1) 1 3 31 174 251 NM 75 21 55 15 9 5.8 5.8 5.0 NM 8 25 0.0 1.2 1.6 5
Restaurant Brands Asia ADD 111 115 4 55 0.7 493 (2) (0) 1 57 98 2,008 NM NM 159 55 24 16 2.8 2.8 2.8 NM NM 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2
Sapphire Foods BUY 1,085 1,425 31 69 0.9 64 7 12 20 147 60 71 148 92 54 21 16 12 6.8 6.4 5.7 6 7 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 2
Westlife Development ADD 497 540 9 78 1.0 156 (0) 7 10 98 6,396 45 NM 74 51 41 22 18 16.7 13.6 10.8 NM 20 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 1
Hotels & Restaurants Attractive 775 9.8 237.1 106.7 47.7 162.8 78.8 53.3 34.0 22.6 17.5 11.2 10.0 8.6 6.9 12.7 16.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 42
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VALUATION SUMMARY
Kotak Institutional Equities Universe
Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADVT-3M
Company Rating 30-Jun-22 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E (US$ mn)
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance BUY 550 700 27 1,162 14.7 2,020 6 7 8 (15) 21 22 96 79 65 — — — 7.5 7.2 6.9 10 9 11 0.3 0.3 0.4 31
ICICI Lombard REDUCE 1,121 1,310 17 550 7.0 491 26 37 45 (20) 41 22 43 31 25 — — — 6.0 5.3 4.5 15 18 19 0.8 0.8 1.0 11
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 489 650 33 703 8.9 1,437 5 6 7 (22) 15 15 93 81 70 — — — 7.7 7.1 6.6 8 9 10 0.7 0.7 0.7 11
Max Financial Services BUY 779 1,050 35 269 3.4 345 3 11 12 3 281 8 262 69 64 — — — — — — 2 6 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5
PB Fintech BUY 572 700 22 257 3.3 467 (18) (13) (5) (343) 29 59 NM NM NM — — — NM NM NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 9
SBI Life Insurance BUY 1,082 1,500 39 1,082 13.7 1,003 15 17 19 3 14 12 72 63 57 — — — 9.5 8.4 7.5 14 14 14 0.2 0.3 0.3 17
Star Health and Allied Insurance ADD 489 625 28 281 3.6 576 (18) 7 16 (9) 141 122 NM 66 30 — — — 6.1 5.7 4.8 NM 9 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 3
Insurance Attractive 4,305 54.5 (32.2) 104.2 32.3 145.2 71.1 53.8 7.0 6.5 5.9 4.8 9.1 10.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 88
Internet Software & Services
Cartrade Tech ADD 592 675 14 28 0.3 51.5 (26) 6 10 (234) 125 60 NM 94 59 (14) 40 26 1.5 1.5 1.5 NM 1.6 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2
FSN E-commerce Ventures BUY 1,407 1,835 30 667 8.4 479.2 1 3 7 (36) 275 123 1,633 436 195 406 213 116 50.3 45.1 36.6 4.5 10.9 21 — — — 12
Info Edge BUY 3,759 4,330 15 485 6.1 128.7 (46) 55 69 (315) 221 25 NM 68 54 100 58 45 3.5 3.3 3.2 NM 5.0 6.0 8.8 0.4 0.5 26
Just Dial BUY 565 970 72 48 0.6 83.6 8 31 39 (75) 264 27 67 18 14 (480) 6 2 1.4 1.3 1.2 3.0 7.1 8.4 — — — 8
Zomato ADD 54 77 43 424 5.4 8,966 (1) (1) (1) 16 25 35 NM NM NM (15) (19) (25) 2.7 2.3 2.4 NM NM NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 41
Internet Software & Services Neutral 1,651 20.9 (945) 109 463 NM 962 171 (105) (569) 203 4.4 3.9 3.8 NM 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.1 0.1 88
IT Services
HCL Technologies BUY 973 1,200 23 2,641 33.4 2,714 50 54 59 4 8 9 20 18 17 12 11 10 4.3 4.0 3.9 22 23 24 4.5 4.6 5.1 44
Infosys BUY 1,462 1,725 18 6,151 77.9 4,204 52 58 66 15 11 13 28 25 22 19 17 15 8.2 7.2 6.5 29 31 31 2.1 2.4 3.1 161
L&T Infotech REDUCE 3,975 4,450 12 697 8.8 176 131 155 176 19 18 14 30 26 23 22 18 15 7.9 6.5 5.4 28 28 26 1.0 1.0 1.1 33
L&T Technology Services REDUCE 3,031 3,100 2 320 4.0 106 91 111 122 44 22 10 33 27 25 21 18 16 7.7 6.4 5.4 25 26 24 0.9 0.9 1.0 18
Mindtree REDUCE 2,887 3,250 13 476 6.0 165 100 124 130 49 23 5 29 23 22 20 17 15 8.7 7.1 6.0 34 33 29 1.4 1.7 1.8 35
Mphasis ADD 2,294 2,650 16 431 5.5 188 76 91 104 17 19 14 30 25 22 20 16 14 6.2 5.7 5.1 21 23 24 2.0 2.4 2.6 17
TCS ADD 3,267 3,400 4 11,954 151.3 3,660 104 117 130 16 13 11 32 28 25 21 19 17 13.2 12.0 10.9 43 45 46 1.3 2.9 3.2 107
Tech Mahindra BUY 1,000 1,300 30 876 11.1 889 63 63 71 23 1 13 16 16 14 10 9 8 3.3 3.1 2.9 22 20 22 3.8 4.0 4.2 53
Wipro REDUCE 416 430 3 2,281 28.9 5,487 22 23 25 17 5 7 19 18 17 12 11 10 3.5 3.0 2.7 20 18 17 1.4 1.2 2.2 50
IT Services Attractive 25,828 326.9 14.1 10.2 11.1 26.3 23.9 21.5 17.7 15.7 14.1 7.5 6.7 6.1 28.4 28.1 28.4 1.9 2.7 3.1 517
Media
PVR BUY 1,862 2,000 7 114 1.4 61 (69) 53 62 37 176 17 NM 35 30 (52) 14 12 4.8 4.3 3.8 NM 13 13 (0.4) 0.3 0.3 17
Sun TV Network BUY 413 540 31 163 2.1 394 42 45 52 8 8 16 10 9 8 6 5 4 2.0 1.8 1.6 22 21 21 3.3 4.8 6.1 6
Zee Entertainment Enterprises ADD 214 275 28 206 2.6 960 11 13 15 (2) 13 14 19 17 15 11 10 9 1.9 1.9 1.7 10 11 12 1.9 2.1 2.1 43
Media Attractive 482 6.1 17.1 43.9 15.0 20.8 14.4 12.6 12.3 8.7 7.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 10.9 14.7 15.3 1.8 2.6 3.0 66
Metals & Mining
Hindalco Industries BUY 339 540 59 761 9.6 2,220 61 44 52 140 (29) 18 6 8 7 4.0 4.5 4.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 19 12 12 1.2 1.3 1.5 78
Hindustan Zinc REDUCE 249 285 14 1,054 13.3 4,225 23 28 21 22 20 (23) 11 9 12 5.4 4.6 5.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 29 34 26 7.2 11.1 8.5 4
Jindal Steel and Power REDUCE 329 400 21 336 4.3 1,011 86 29 41 38 (66) 40 4 11 8 2.7 5.2 4.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 26 8 10 1— — 1— 49
JSW Steel SELL 565 460 (19) 1,365 17.3 2,417 88 43 56 166 (50) 29 6 13 10 5.0 8.2 7.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 37 15 16 3.1 1.1 1.3 47
National Aluminium Co. ADD 69 95 38 126 1.6 1,837 17 11 12 217 (35) 4 4 6 6 1.9 2.9 3.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 27 16 15 7.3 4.9 5.1 23
NMDC SELL 108 110 2 317 4.0 2,931 32 16 12 43 (51) (24) 3 7 9 2.2 4.5 6.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 29 13 9 13.6 7.3 5.6 16
SAIL SELL 69 55 (20) 283 3.6 4,130 30 7 6 208 (76) (11) 2 9 11 2.1 5.5 5.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 25 5 5 4.9 4.9 4.9 41
Tata Steel REDUCE 867 1,100 27 1,060 13.4 1,222 330 154 115 363 (53) (25) 3 6 8 2.5 4.2 4.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 43 15 10 5.9 2.7 1.5 124
Vedanta REDUCE 223 290 30 829 10.5 3,717 53 48 41 59 (10) (14) 4 5 5 2.7 2.8 3.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 31 26 20 20.2 14.5 10.9 56
Metals & Mining Attractive 6,130 77.6 128.5 (41.3) (6.7) 4.4 7.6 8.1 3.2 4.6 4.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 27.8 14.9 12.7 6.9 5.5 4.3 438
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VALUATION SUMMARY
Kotak Institutional Equities Universe
Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADVT-3mo
Company Rating 30-Jun-22 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E (US$ mn)
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
BPCL BUY 308 400 30 669 8.5 2,093 42 9 47 (37) (79) 439 7 35 7 4.9 12.5 4.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 17 4 18 5.2 1.1 5.8 21
Coal India REDUCE 186 185 (0) 1,144 14.5 6,163 28 20 19 37 (29) (5) 7 9 10 5.7 8.5 9.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 44 29 27 9.2 10.8 10.8 41
HPCL BUY 217 275 27 308 3.9 1,419 44 2 57 (45) (96) 3,175 5 125 4 7.6 23.6 5.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 17 1 20 6.4 0.3 10.5 15
IOCL BUY 74 140 89 1,049 13.3 9,181 26 12 25 2 (53) 102 3 6 3 3.8 6.2 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 20 9 16 17.0 8.4 16.9 22
Oil India ADD 252 285 13 273 3.5 1,084 35 74 55 241 111 (26) 7 3 5 7.1 3.3 3.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 14 25 16 5.7 11.8 8.7 13
ONGC BUY 152 190 25 1,907 24.1 12,580 38 57 42 205 52 (26) 4 3 4 3.2 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 20 26 17 6.9 15.4 12.0 52
Reliance Industries BUY 2,596 3,050 18 16,480 208.6 6,352 91 125 136 26 37 9 28 21 19 15.7 11.3 9.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 8 10 10 0.3 0.3 0.3 266
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Neutral 21,829 276.3 36.0 11.8 7.0 13.2 11.8 11.0 8.6 7.0 6.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 12.5 12.7 12.4 2.2 2.6 2.8 431
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma ADD 513 650 27 301 3.8 586 45 48 54 (19) 8 13 12 11 9 6 5 4 1.2 1.1 1.0 11 11 11 0.9 2.1 2.5 16
Biocon REDUCE 308 350 13 370 4.7 1,202 6 10 15 (2) 68 50 50 30 20 20 14 10 3.9 3.5 3.1 8 12 15 - 1.2 1.8 11
Cipla BUY 917 1,180 29 740 9.4 806 31 41 54 5 32 30 29 22 17 16 12 9 3.5 3.1 2.7 12 14 16 0.5 0.9 1.1 25
Divis Laboratories REDUCE 3,630 3,500 (4) 964 12.2 265 112 99 109 49 (11) 10 33 37 33 24 26 23 8.2 7.2 6.3 25 20 19 0.6 1.0 1.1 30
Dr Reddy's Laboratories ADD 4,394 4,520 3 731 9.3 166 188 204 256 20 9 25 23 22 17 16 13 10 3.8 3.3 2.8 16 15 16 0.6 0.7 0.8 24
Gland Pharma REDUCE 2,702 2,800 4 445 5.6 164 74 84 100 21 13 20 37 32 27 27 24 19 6.2 5.2 4.4 17 16 16 — — — 13
Laurus Labs REDUCE 465 550 18 250 3.2 536 15 24 28 (16) 54 16 30 20 17 19 13 11 7.4 5.4 4.1 25 28 24 — — — 10
Lupin ADD 611 725 19 278 3.5 450 24 25 40 (13) 5 62 26 25 15 12 10 7 2.2 2.1 1.9 9 8 12 — 0.6 1.0 11
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 831 985 19 1,993 25.2 2,406 33 33 39 32 2 18 25 25 21 18 16 14 4.2 3.7 3.2 17 15 15 1.1 0.8 0.9 35
Torrent Pharmaceuticals ADD 2,850 2,965 4 482 6.1 169 75 85 106 1 14 25 38 33 27 20 17 15 8.1 7.0 6.0 21 21 22 1.4 1.0 1.3 7
Pharmaceuticals Cautious 6,554 83.0 13.1 10.4 22.8 27.2 24.6 20.0 17.1 14.5 11.8 4.0 3.6 3.1 14.8 14.5 15.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 183
Real Estate
Brigade Enterprises BUY 444 580 31 102 1.3 230 4 12 15 264 242 22 123 36 30 17 9 7 3.6 3.3 3.0 3 10 11 0.6 0.6 0.6 2
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust ADD 324 330 2 109 1.4 335 8 10 14 88 19 39 40 33 24 26 17 14 1.1 1.2 1.3 3 4 5 5.2 4.2 4.8 0
DLF BUY 313 410 31 774 9.8 2,475 6 9 19 43 40 117 50 36 17 44 40 23 2.1 2.0 1.8 4 6 12 0.6 0.6 0.6 28
Embassy Office Parks REIT ADD 374 420 12 355 4.5 948 9 11 16 26 19 43 40 34 24 20 17 13 1.4 1.4 1.5 3 4 6 5.8 5.7 7.4 3
Godrej Properties SELL 1,180 1,270 8 328 4.2 278 13 32 38 285 157 16 94 36 31 252 85 226 3.8 3.4 3.1 4 10 10 — — — 13
Macrotech Developers BUY 1,069 1,350 26 515 6.5 482 25 39 73 97 54 90 43 28 15 29 20 11 4.3 3.7 2.9 14 14 22 — — — 5
Mindspace REIT ADD 350 365 4 208 2.6 593 9 12 15 65 36 25 41 30 24 18 15 13 1.3 1.3 1.4 3 4 6 5.5 6.1 6.8 1
Oberoi Realty ADD 738 965 31 268 3.4 364 29 41 50 41 44 21 26 18 15 23 15 9 2.6 2.3 2.0 11 14 14 0.3 0.3 0.3 9
Phoenix Mills BUY 1,173 1,380 18 209 2.7 179 19 35 51 527 81 46 61 34 23 30 14 10 3.2 2.9 2.6 6 9 12 0.2 0.3 0.3 3
Prestige Estates Projects BUY 387 580 50 155 2.0 401 9 27 35 2,615 218 29 45 14 11 11 4 4 1.7 1.5 1.4 4 11 13 0.4 0.4 0.4 4
Sobha BUY 577 890 54 55 0.7 95 12 48 54 84 292 14 47 12 11 8 5 4 2.2 1.9 1.7 5 17 17 1.2 1.2 1.2 3
Sunteck Realty BUY 497 540 9 73 0.9 140 2 18 21 (53) 918 13 278 27 24 84 21 19 2.5 2.3 2.1 1 9 9 0.2 0.2 0.2 5
Real Estate Attractive 3,151 39.9 97.6 67.2 55.1 47.1 28.2 18.2 26.3 17.3 12.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 4.7 7.5 10.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 76
Retailing
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail BUY 237 365 54 222 2.8 938 (1) 5 7 86 526 37 NM 48 35 21 12 10 8.0 6.9 5.7 NM 15 18 — — — 9
Avenue Supermarts REDUCE 3,406 3,300 (3) 2,206 27.9 648 23 39 52 35 72 33 149 87 65 88 55 43 16.1 13.6 11.3 11 17 19 — — — 22
Titan Company ADD 1,941 2,400 24 1,723 21.8 888 25 33 40 131 29 23 77 59 48 51 38 32 18.5 15.4 12.8 27 28 29 0.4 0.6 0.8 45
Vedant Fashions REDUCE 966 1,000 4 234 3.0 248 19 15 18 251 (21) 20 51 65 54 36 39 32 22.1 18.0 14.5 43 31 30 — — — 2
Retailing Neutral 4,152 55.5 178.8 53.7 27.8 107.2 69.8 54.6 57.5 40.2 32.2 16.3 13.7 11.4 15.2 19.7 21 0.2 0.2 0.3 78
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VALUATION SUMMARY
Kotak Institutional Equities Universe
Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADVT-3mo
Company Rating 30-Jun-22 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E (US$ mn)
Specialty Chemicals
Aarti Industries SELL 699 690 (1) 253 3.2 363 22 23 29 48 4 28 32 31 24 21 19 16 4.3 3.8 3.4 17 13 15 0.5 0.3 — 8
Atul SELL 8,000 7,520 (6) 237 3.0 30 204 241 301 (8) 18 25 39 33 27 26 22 17 5.3 4.7 4.1 15 15 17 0.3 0.4 0.5 5
Castrol India BUY 103 130 26 102 1.3 989 8 9 10 27 19 10 13 11 10 8 7 6 6.2 6.0 5.6 50 54 57 5.3 8.2 8.7 1
Clean Science & Technology REDUCE 1,490 1,650 11 158 2.0 106 22 27 34 15 27 26 69 55 43 53 41 32 20.6 15.6 11.9 35 33 31 0.2 0.3 0.3 2
Navin Fluorine ADD 3,652 3,920 7 181 2.3 50 52 68 112 18 30 65 70 54 33 51 36 23 9.8 8.4 6.8 15 17 23 0.3 0.2 0.3 7
Pidilite Industries REDUCE 2,090 2,200 5 1,062 13.4 508 24 32 41 6 34 30 88 66 51 57 44 35 16.6 14.7 12.6 20 24 27 0.5 0.7 0.8 13
PI Industries ADD 2,560 2,850 11 388 4.9 152 56 72 89 12 29 24 46 36 29 33 26 21 6.3 5.5 4.8 15 17 18 0.3 0.4 0.6 8
S H Kelkar and Company BUY 136 175 29 19 0.2 141 8 10 13 (17) 32 20 17 13 11 10 8 7 1.9 1.7 1.5 11 14 15 1.8 2.4 3.1 0
SRF BUY 2,252 2,500 11 668 8.5 296 64 84 96 55 31 15 35 27 23 22 17 15 7.8 6.5 5.5 24 26 25 1.1 1.4 1.6 23
Vinati Organics ADD 1,975 2,100 6 203 2.6 104 34 46 62 29 36 35 59 43 32 46 33 24 11.1 8.9 7.4 21 23 25 0.3 0.6 0.9 2
Specialty Chemicals Attractive 3,272 41.4 24.3 26.0 23.7 46.5 36.9 29.8 30.6 24.5 20.0 8.5 7.3 6.3 18.3 19.9 21.1 0.7 1.0 1.1 71
Telecommunication Services
Bharti Airtel BUY 685 870 27 3,880 49.1 5,759 5 26 43 191 437 69 144 27 16 9 7 5 5.8 4.8 3.7 4 20 27 0.4 0.6 0.9 65
Indus Towers ADD 209 235 12 564 7.1 2,695 21 22 25 4 4 13 10 9 8 4 4 4 2.5 2.2 2.0 30 25 25 5.3 5.3 5.9 12
Vodafone Idea RS 8 — — 270 3.4 32,119 (9) (7) (6) NM NM NM NM NM NM 13 10 9 (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) 57 31 19 — — — 23
Tata Communications ADD 914 1,400 53 261 3.3 285 53 48 56 17 (8) 17 17 19 16 8 8 7 28.1 15.2 9.4 288 104 72 2.3 2.1 2.4 13
Telecommunication Services Attractive 4,974 63.0 8 95 1,804 NM NM 30.9 8.7 7.1 5.6 18 21 13 NM NM 41 1.0 1.2 1.5 113
Transportation
Adani Ports and SEZ REDUCE 672 735 9 1,420 18.0 2,112 27 30 39 35 11 27 25 22 17 18 14 12 3.7 3.2 2.8 17 16 17 0.7 0.5 0.6 70
Container Corp. BUY 594 660 11 362 4.6 609 17 22 29 81 27 29 34 27 21 19 16 12 3.4 3.1 2.8 10 12 14 — 0.7 1.4 14
Gateway Distriparks BUY 68 94 39 34 0.4 500 4 4 5 (41) (5) 26 15 16 13 10 8 6 2.1 1.9 1.7 14 12 14 1.1 1.1 1.1 -
GMR Infrastructure BUY 34 43 26 206 2.6 6,036 (0) (1) (1) 58 (202) 38 NM NM NM 21 24 19 (25.2) (14.4) (11.8) 20 69 30 — — — 7
Gujarat Pipavav Port BUY 77 105 37 37 0.5 483 4 5 6 (9) 22 15 19 15 13 7 6 6 1.8 1.8 1.8 10 12 14 5.2 6.3 7.1 1
InterGlobe Aviation BUY 1,606 2,580 61 619 7.8 383 (161) 78 127 (12) 148 63 NM 21 13 90 5 3 (10.2) (20.1) 3.2 207 NM NM — — — 16
Mahindra Logistics REDUCE 471 540 15 34 0.4 71 6 12 21 18 97 76 79 40 23 18 13 9 5.7 5.1 4.4 7 14 21 — — — 1
Transportation Neutral 2,711 34.3 196.8 1,103.9 42.4 310.6 25.8 18.1 20.7 11.3 8.9 5.8 4.9 3.9 1.9 18.9 22 0.5 0.5 0.6 110
KIE universe 173,727 2,198 39.5 14.1 19.2 22.3 19.5 16.4 12.1 10.9 9.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 13.5 14.0 14.8 1.6 1.8 2.0
Notes:
(a) We have used adjusted book values for banking companies.
(b) 2022 means calendar year 2021, similarly for 2023 and 2024 for these particular companies.
(c) Exchange rate (Rs/US$)= 79.01
Kotak
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