Creating and Using Meaningful Asset Health Indices - 15 Feb

Creating and Using Meaningful
Asset Health Indices (AHI)

Dr. Tony McGrail
The Doble Engineering Company
tmcgrail@doble.com
©2022 Altanova
©2022 Altanova Group.
Group. All
All Rights
Rights Reserved.
Reserved.
Doble History
©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

AltaNova Introduction
Dr. Tony McGrail

tmcgrail@doble.com
©2022 Altanova
Group. All
All Rights
Rights Reserved.
Reserved.
Altanova History
1938 I.S.A. Istrumentazioni Sistemi Automatici S.r.l.

is established in Taino ITALY
1999 TECHIMP was born as a spin-off from the

University of Bologna ITALY.
2017 I.S.A. and TECHIMP merge giving

birth to the ALTANOVA GROUP
2019 INTELLISAW joins ALTANOVA GROUP
ALTANOVA GROUP becomes part of ESCO

2021 Technology Group and joins the Doble
Engineering Company, as part of the USG
division. ©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.
Altanova Today
100
COUNTRIES
12
GLOBAL
FACILITY
LOCATIONS
150+
EMPLOYEES
150+ 5550+
CUSTOMERS GLOBALLY
SALES PARTNERS Part of ESCO
Technologies’ Utility
Solutions Group
PRODUCT BRANDS

Our Solutions
Electrical Test Equipment Monitoring Systems
Essential for day-to-day maintenance Shift from a time-based maintenance
tests of electrical assets. Useful in to a condition-based maintenance.
specific phases of the asset lifecycle:
- Procure Focus on predictive maintenance and
- Operate shift in focus from electric asset
- Maintain value cost to network outage costs.
- Decommission.
Strong evolution of digitalization
trend in the power industry.
Professional Services
Diversified offer according to the
electrical asset lifecycle:
- Installation and commissioning
- Diagnostic test
- Data analysis
- Consultancy
- Training.
Testing And Monitoring Solutions For:
Power transformers Current & voltage transformers
Circuit breakers Protective relays
HV gas insulated switchgears Meters and transducers
MV/HV/EHV cables Rotating machines
MV/LV switchgears Variable speed drives
Batteries Overhead lines

Creating and using meaningful Asset Health
Indices (AHIs)
Dr. Tony McGrail
tmcgrail@doble.com
©2022 Altanova
Group. All
All Rights
Rights Reserved.
Reserved.
Agenda
Aim:
Presenter Background Provide you with something
A little on transformers of interest/value/use in your
Some aspects of Asset Health Indices ‘day job’.
– Failure modes, expectations and health indexing
– Models, and their limitations
– What does an AHI mean?
– Dunning-Kruger
– Risk of Using Risk Matrices
– Tooth Fairy Science
– Anscombe
Conclusion/Discussion

Presenter background
• National Grid UK: substation tech specialist, transformers

– Go/NoGo decisions: timescales & actions
• National Grid US: Substation Asset Mgr.
– >2,000 power transformers, many >80 years old…
• Doble Engineering
– Asset Management and Monitoring Technology

Asset Management Context
• ISO 55000: Asset management
• Talk technical to financial people… financial to technical people
• ‘Translation’ needed – AHIs sometimes used as a substitute
• Risk – Cost – Performance – Sustainability
• Risk is a combination of hazard probability and consequence
• Expectations – actions – feedback
• Plan – do – check – act
• Smart analytics: 95% can be achieved through cleaning up the
data and use of standard statistical tools...
• Make data available…
“Plans are of little importance, but planning is essential.”
― Winston Churchill
Transformer Assets:
Big Money, Big Data…

…big responsibilities!

Failure modes are not always obvious
From “Field Experiences with SFRA”

Various, Doble Client Conference, Boston, 2002-2019
The unexpected…

Expectations: failure modes1
Failure modes: Connection / bushing

Through fault e.g.
lightning strike
problem
Dielectric faults
Thermal faults Low oil level

Moisture ingress /
Mechanical faults content
Winding Looseness
External faults
Insulation Arcing / electrical

deterioration discharge
Core Looseness
Oil quality
deterioration Winding distortion
External damage/ disturbance
Overheating / Auxiliary cooling

system problem
Tap changer condition
Oil leak / problem
Oil circulation system
problem
1: ISO 18095 “Condition Monitoring and Diagnostics of Power Transformers” ©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.
Expected Life?
What is the probability of failure of an asset?
100%
Singer/Songwriter: Paul Simon

“Everything put together, sooner or later, falls apart.”
So… we need to have some interest in time: probability of failure, by when?

Probability of Failure: when???
Story of the tires… if they fail, you may need a new car…
Pressure is at 35 psi for front left tire: what’s the PoF of the car?
PoF this week? PoF this month? Today?
More data?
It’s Tuesday (+/-15%, you may need to check…)
Ok… you’re doing 100 kph (62.5mph)
And the pressure is now 22 psi…
Too late. Result?
Misery…
No tacos…
Asset Health Index
A number/code/color/term to represent the health of an asset:

it is our ‘best estimate’ of the asset health: it is a model
Whatever index we derive…
… it should not be a surprise!
It should ‘document’ what we think we know!
It may be a proxy for ‘Probability of Failure’
“Turning an Asset Health Index into a Probability of Failure”, CEATI Report 30113 (2018) ©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.
Physicist Richard Feynman
On physics:
“…you have to have an understanding of the connection of the words with
the real world.”
These blocks are not transformers… These health indices are not transformers…
Overall Condition Overall ConditionCore and Windings Core and WindingsOil OLTC OilExterior O
T-No Ratio T-No
Rated Ratio
Power Rated
Manufacturer
DesignPower
Manufacturer
Family
Design Year Design Now
Score Family
Design Score
Year
Mitigated NowPossible Improvement
Mitigated Possible
Dielectric Improvement
Thermal Dielectric
Mechanical Thermal
Ageing Mechanical
ContaminationAgeing Contamination
T4315 400/132 kV 240T4315
MVA 400/132 kV 240
AEI Wythenshawe
A04aMVA AEI
32Wythenshawe
A04a
1965 32
221 1965213 221 8 213 100 8 100 100 1 100 13 1 10 133 10
10
T3040 275/132 kV 120T3040
MVA 275/132
EEC kV 120
E11bMVA EEC
32 E11b
1959 32
170 1959103 170 68 103 30 68 60 30 1 60 190 1 10 190
10 10
10
T6975 400/275 kV T6975
1000 MVA 400/275
GEC kV 1000
G02bMVA GEC 104 G02b
1994 104
170 1994135 170 35 135 30 35 60 30 60 36 100 36 100
1
T3039 275/132 kV 120T3039
MVA 275/132
EEC kV 120
E11bMVA EEC
32 E11b
1959 32
154 1959143 154 11 143 30 11 100 30 1 100 23 1 10 23
10 10
3
T4259 275/66 kV 180T4259
MVA 275/66
CP kV 180
D07MVA CP12 D07
1965 12
152 1965126 152 26 126 60 26 60 60 1 60 70 1 10 701 10
T2370 275/132 kV 120T2370
MVA 275/132
MVE kV 120
M01MVA MVE5 M01
1957 5
151 195794 151 57 94 30 57 60 30 1 60 160 1 10 1603 10
10
T5961 400/275 kV 750T5961
MVA 400/275
HHE kV 750
H02MVA HHE
111 H02
1971 111
147 1971100 147 47 100 3 47 60 3 60 140 140 3
T6201 275/33 kV 100T6201
MVA 275/33
PPT kV 100
P21MVA PPT
104 P21
1972 104
144 1972139 144 5 139 1 5 3 1 100 3 13 100 131 10
T5566 400/132 kV 240T5566
MVA 400/132
CAP kV 240
C04MVA CAP
32 C04
1968 32
138 196885 138 54 85 10 54 60 10 1 60 140 1 30 1401 30
T4409 275/132 kV 240T4409
MVA 275/132
HHE kV 240
H07aMVA HHE
12 H07a
1964 12
133 1964107 133 26 107 1 26 100 1 1 100 70 1 10 703 10
T5581 400/132 kV 240T5581
MVA 400/132 kV 240
AEI Wythenshawe
A04bMVA AEI
102Wythenshawe
A04b
1967 102
132 1967106 132 26 106 10 26 60 10 1 60 70 1 10 703 10
T4686 400/132 kV 220T4686
MVA 400/132
PPT kV 220
P06aMVA PPT
131 P06a
1967 131
131 1967107 131 24 107 1 24 60 1 1 60 63 1 10 631 10
10
T4406 275/132 kV 240T4406
MVA 275/132
HHE kV 240
H07aMVA HHE
12 H07a
1964 12
129 1964106 129 23 106 1 23 100 1 100 63 10 631 10
T2300 275/132 kV 120T2300
MVA 275/132
EEC kV 120
E11aMVA EEC
102 E11a
1955 102
129 1955105 129 24 105 10 24 60 10 1 60 70 1 701 10
T4258 275/132 kV 240T4258
MVA 275/132
HHE kV 240
H07aMVA HHE
12 H07a
1966 12
129 1966106 129 23 106 1 23 100 1 100 63 10 631 10
T3041 275/132 kV 120T3041
MVA 275/132
EEC kV 120
E11bMVA EEC
32 E11b
1959 32
129 1959107 129 22 107 30 22 60 30 3 60 43 3 30 43
10 30
T2521 275/132 kV 120T2521
MVA 275/132
FER kV 120
F08 MVA FER
120 F08
1956 120
124 1956105 124 19 105 3 19 60 3 1 60 50 1 10 501 10
T3583 275/132 kV 180T3583
MVA 275/132
FUL kV 180
L05 MVA FUL
111 L05
1962 111
122 196299 122 23 99 1 23 60 1 60 63 10 631 10
T5434 400/132 kV 240T5434
MVA 400/132 kV 240
AEI Wythenshawe
A04bMVA AEI
102Wythenshawe
A04b
1967 102
122 196796 122 26 96 1 26 60 1 60 70 10 703 10
T3139 275/66 kV 120T3139
MVA 275/66 kV
AEI Rugby 120
A10MVA AEI3 Rugby1960
A10 3
122 1960106 122 16 106 100 16 3 100 1 3 40 1 10 401 10
They are representations of transformers… they are ‘models’ … digital twins!
“All models are wrong, some models are useful” C.J. Box
More thoughts from inside a Box1
“Since all models are wrong… you cannot obtain a "correct" one by
excessive elaboration.”
“Since all models are wrong… you must be alert to what is importantly
wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers
abroad.”
“The only question of interest is: ‘Is the model illuminating and useful?’”
And from Dr. Cox2:

“The idea that complex physical, biological or sociological systems can be
exactly described by a few formulae is patently absurd.”
1: Box, G. E. P. (1976), "Science and statistics” Journal of the American Statistical Association ©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.
2: Cox, D. R. (1995), "Comment on "Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference"", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A,
What does a health index mean?
Depending on how you built the ‘health index’, it could:

- Summarize what we already know
- Indicate likely failure modes and timescales for action
- Help rank assets for intervention based on ‘urgency’
- Have poor precision/accuracy
- Miss ‘serious issues’ if we do not test for them
A ‘health index’ CAN NOT tell you that the asset will NOT fail in a given time period!
"Life is under no obligation to

Key words: Calibrated, Monotonic give us what we expect”
Auditable, Justifiable Irrfan Khan, Actor

Key Words
• Calibrated: • Monotonic:
All identical indices have identical A ‘worse’ index is always
timescales for action associated with a more urgent
(all ‘3s’ need to be checked in 1 month, say) condition
(all ‘3s’ are worse than all 2’s, say)
• Auditable • Justifiable:
We can track the index back to The process of generating an
data, failure modes and timescales index is based on failure mode
(we have the evidence and the analysis) analysis/urgency
(the analysis makes sense)

What if we just had one or two assets?
• Gather data
• Read the manuals/guides
• Test and assess
• Make a plan to intervene:
• maintain, replace, refurbish…
• Act on the plan in a timely manner
• Repeat
• Who needs a health index?

• A health index… what would it do for our one or two assets?
Raw data to an index
Start with something ‘simple’ – tire pressure in psi. If the tire pressure drops
too much, the tire may fail, possibly taking the car with it.
The more the pressure drops, the more urgent the situation is!
How much of a drop is too much? Where are you on the failure mode curve?
How do we turn the measured pressure into a health index?

- Choose your parameter(s)
- Identify symptoms and failure modes
- Expected timescales? Driver, route, conditions, maintenance?
- Where are we on the failure mode curve?
- How long do we have?
Creating an Index
Timescale
What question are you trying to answer? Code Code Code
For Action
A 1 John ‘Regular’ activity
For just one asset: B 2 Paul 5 - 15 years
- what data do you need, what analysis, C 3 George 2 - 5 years
what resources?
D 4 Ringo 0.5 - 2 years
- Can you identify failure modes and
timescales? E 5 Bert <6 months
- What intervention is needed? When?
Advantage of NOT using numbers: You will
not do BAD math and start calculating
What do you want the index to ‘look like’:
letters, numbers, other? ‘risk’ values
What categories are acceptable? Useful?

Linear weighted scoring
Evaluate components… choose a scoring system: say 1=good through 5=bad
HOW DID WE GET THESE INDIVIDUAL SCORES???
Factor Trf 1 Trf 2 Trf 3 Note: NO AGE SCORE !!!
DGA Main Tank Score 2 1 1
Dielectric Score 1 1 1 If you were given this data today…
Thermal Score 2 1 1
Mechanical Score 3 4 1 …which transformer would you investigate first?
Oil Score 1 1 1 And why?
DGA LTC Tank Score 3 1 5
Operational Score 2 3 3
Design/manufacturer Score 1 4 1 Trf 3 because this is the
Subject Matter Expert Score 3 1 2
Sum 18 17 16 most urgent component
Timescales need to be calibrated so all ‘X’s are the same timescale:
For example: If a Thermal ‘5’ means do something in 3 months then
a DGA ‘5’ also means do something in 3 months… ©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.
MAX and ENUM
Calibrated scores: 1=good through 5=bad
Factor Trf 1 Trf 2 Trf 3
DGA Main Tank Score 2 1 1 Trf 3 has a MAX of 5 and is highest priority –
Dielectric Score 1 1 1
Thermal Score 2 1 1 even with lowest overall score.
Mechanical Score
Oil Score
3
1
4
1
1
1
What if there were two Trfs with a MAX of 5?
DGA LTC Tank Score 3 1 5
Operational Score 2 3 3
Design/manufacturer Score 1 4 1 Use enumeration to count how many of each
Subject Matter Expert Score 3 1 2
Sum 18 17 16
score: the ranking is then highest Enum first,
Normalized Sum (%) 40.0 37.8 35.6 lowest last
Trf 5’s 4’s 3’s 2’s 1’s Enum Rank The ENUM system is easy
Trf 1 0 0 3 3 3 00333 3 to start small and grow –
Trf 2 0 2 1 0 6 02106 2
and retain urgency
Trf 3 1 0 1 1 6 10116 1
Choose your modeling approach
Weighted
or
Maximum
Weighted
Maximum

Key question
AHI = 5.7
PU Ageing: HST, +/-3

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
“What does 5.7 mean???”
4.0
2.0
0.0
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
HST-D3 HST HST+D3

A little learning?
Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David (1999).
"Unskilled and Unaware of It”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

77 (6): 1121–1134
“ People with a little knowledge usually have

overconfidence in their ability”

Get started and grow
System Overview: only 4 codes! (Categories)
Original System 1=bad, 4 = good
Code Original System
1 transformer is on active list for replacement within 2-5 years
2 transformer is expected to last up to 5 years and may need to be replaced in 5-10 years
3 Plan to replace ahead of anticipated asset life, design issue identified
4 transformer is expected to last for the foreseeable future, and at least 15 years. No plan to replace.
Revised System – still 1-4, but more detail

Code Original System
1 transformer is on active list for replacement within 2-5 years
2a transformer is expected to last up to 5 years and may need to be replaced in 5-10 years, may well
develop into a 1
2b transformer is expected to last up to 5 years and may need to be replaced in 5-10 years due to
insulation ageing.
3a Plan to replace ahead of anticipated asset life, design issue identified
3b Plan to replace ahead of anticipated asset life, design issue identified but not serious.
4 transformer is expected to last for the foreseeable future, and at least 15 years. No plan to replace. ©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.
How about Log/Exp scales?
League table for transmission operator:
sorted by worst overall condition score
Current and Mitigated Condition Possible Component score based
improvement on sub-components
Design/Manufacturer in score
Overall Condition Core and Windings Oil OLTC Exterior

T-No Ratio Rated Power
ManufacturerDesign Family
Design Score
Year Now Mitigated Possible Improvement
Dielectric Thermal Mechanical Ageing Contamination
T4315 400/132 kV 240 MVA AEI Wythenshawe
A04a 32 1965 221 213 8 100 100 1 13 10 3 10
T3040 275/132 kV 120 MVA EEC E11b 32 1959 170 103 68 30 60 1 190 10 10 10
T6975 400/275 kV 1000 MVA GEC G02b 104 1994 170 135 35 30 60 36 100 1
T3039 275/132 kV 120 MVA EEC E11b 32 1959 154 143 11 30 100 1 23 10 10 3
T4259 275/66 kV 180 MVA CP D07 12 1965 152 126 26 60 60 1 70 10 1
T2370 275/132 kV 120 MVA MVE M01 5 1957 151 94 57 30 60 1 160 10 3 10
T5961 400/275 kV 750 MVA HHE H02 111 1971 147 100 47 3 60 140 3
T6201 275/33 kV 100 MVA PPT P21 104 1972 144 139 5 1 3 100 13 1 10
T5566 400/132 kV 240 MVA CAP C04 32 1968 138 85 54 10 60 1 140 30 1
T4409 275/132 kV 240 MVA HHE H07a 12 1964 133 107 26 1 100 1 70 10 3
A04b 102 1967 132 106 26 10 60 1 70 10 3
T4686 400/132 kV 220 MVA PPT P06a 131 1967 131 107 24 1 60 1 63 10 1 10
T4406 275/132 kV 240 MVA HHE H07a 12 1964 129 106 23 1 100 63 10 1
T2300 275/132 kV 120 MVA EEC E11a 102 1955 129 105 24 10 60 1 70 1 10
T4258 275/132 kV 240 MVA HHE H07a 12 1966 129 106 23 1 100 63 10 1
T3041 275/132 kV 120 MVA EEC E11b 32 1959 129 107 22 30 60 3 43 30 10
T2521 275/132 kV 120 MVA FER F08 120 1956 124 105 19 3 60 1 50 10 1
T3583 275/132 kV 180 MVA FUL L05 111 1962 122 99 23 1 60 63 10 1
A04b 102 1967 122 96 26 1 60 70 10 3
T3139 275/66 kV 120 MVA AEI Rugby A10 3 1960 122 106 16 100 3 1 40 10 1

Categories Feedback Loop

“The Risk of Using Risk Matrices”
“Furthermore, Risk Matrices (RMs) are recommended in numerous international and national
standards such as ISO, API, and NORSOK.The popularity of RMs has been attributed in part to their
visual appeal, which is claimed to improve communications.”
“Despite these claimed advantages, we are not aware of any published scientific studies demonstrating that
RMs improve risk-management decisions. (The use of RMs to analyze and manage risks may be better than
doing nothing.)”
• Range compression: same category for very different risks
• Centering bias: people avoid the extremes
• Category definition bias: people make stuff up
• Ranking reversal issues: changing scales can be bad
• Lie factor: misrepresentation (Stanford)
• “How to measure anything” Douglas Hubbard2…
Sapolski: ‘We think in categories3’

1: “The Risk of Using Risk Matrices”, Thomas, Bratvold & Bickel, Soc. Petroleum Engineers, Annual Tech Conf., New Orleans, USA, 2013
2: “The Failure of Risk Management – why it’s broke and how to fix it”, D. Hubbard, 2009
3: Stanford University, “Introduction to Human Behavioral Biology” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNnIGh9g6fA
Using an Index
You’ve compressed a lot of data, rules, guides and detail into a single value.
You have put groups/codes/categories in place:
DOES IT HELP???
Problem of thinking in categories:

- Things within a category are seen as more similar than those in other categories
- Things in other categories are seen as more different than those in this category
- Why treat the members of a category in the same way???
Use a percent score? Percent of what? What does the number mean?
Is the index ‘useful’??? Calibrated, Monotonic, Auditable, Justifiable?
What was the question again? What are you asking the AHI to do?
Perils of Summary Statistics
Anscombe Quartet1: 4 data sets with similar statistical properties:
Property Value Accuracy
Mean of x 9 exact
Sample variance of x : s2x 11 exact
Mean of y 7.50 to 2 decimal places
Sample variance of y : s2y 4.125 ±0.003
Correlation between x and y 0.816 to 3 decimal places
Linear regression line y = 3.00 + 0.500x to 2 and 3 decimal places, respectively
Coefficient of determination of
0.67 to 2 decimal places
linear regression
Anscombe Quartet: the visual properties, however, are quite different

The implications are very different…
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe's_quartet
2: http://www.thefunctionalart.com/2016/08/download-datasaurus-never-trust-summary.html ©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.
3: https://www.autodesk.com/research/publications/same-stats-different-graphs
Summary Statistics
Datasaurus Dozen

https://www.autodesk.com/research/publications/same-stats-different-graphs
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc: Placebos?
Present fleet status Replace only oldest Replace at random

Tooth Fairy Science… Raton Perez1?
Harriet Hall, MD2

You could measure how much money the Tooth Fairy leaves under
the pillow, whether she leaves more cash for the first or last tooth,
whether the payoff is greater if you leave the tooth in a plastic bag
versus wrapped in tissue versus ‘free’, multiple teeth, tooth under
pillow or by the pillow etc etc…”
“You can get all kinds of good data that is

reproducible and statistically significant.”
“Yes, you have learned something. But you haven’t learned

what you think you’ve learned, because, sadly, there is no
real Tooth Fairy.” (So far as we know…)
1: https://skepticalinquirer.org/exclusive/tooth-fairy-science-part-1/ 2: “Memoirs of a Female Flight Surgeon”, H. Hall

Condition Monitoring?
If a monitor gives an alert – use that ‘by
itself’ to trigger the action plan you put in
place when the monitor was installed.
Tell me you have thought about the alert

settings!
Tell me you’ve a plan for every alert on

every monitor?
Don’t go from ignorance to negligence…

an index won’t save you!

Thoughts?
Risk from a hazard = f(Prob,Con): probability of occurrence and consequence ($)
Probability of failure is difficult to evaluate (nuanced)
Use AHI as a proxy for PoF?
Consequence is easier to evaluate (calibrate)
Sapolsky: We think in categories (which is misleading)

Risk Heat Maps are usually misleading (many reasons)
Asset Health Indices may be misleading (4 adjectives)
Box: All models are wrong, some models are useful

Duning-Kruger: A little learning is a dangerous thing

Summary
Creation:
- Identify the question to be addressed
- Gather appropriate data
- Identify symptoms and failure modes
- Identify timescales
- Choose scoring system and codes – calibrated and monotonic
- Don’t over elaborate
Usage:
- Is the question addressed
- Sanity check – feedback loop
- Understand the need to translate: technical to financial etc
- Is the message getting through

Thank you!
Dr. Tony McGrail

tmcgrail@doble.com
©2022 Altanova
Group. All
All Rights
Rights Reserved.
Reserved.
Discussion
Thank you for attending this webinar:
– we hope you got something useful from it!
Questions? Comments? Feedback?

Please email and we will respond directly!
Tony McGrail
tmcgrail@doble.com

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Creating and Using Meaningful Asset Health Indices - 15 Feb

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Creating and Using Meaningful

Asset Health Indices (AHI)

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

Dr. Tony McGrail

1938 I.S.A. Istrumentazioni Sistemi Automatici S.r.l.

1999 TECHIMP was born as a spin-off from the

2017 I.S.A. and TECHIMP merge giving

2019 INTELLISAW joins ALTANOVA GROUP

ALTANOVA GROUP becomes part of ESCO

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

Power transformers Current & voltage transformers

Circuit breakers Protective relays

HV gas insulated switchgears Meters and transducers

MV/HV/EHV cables Rotating machines

MV/LV switchgears Variable speed drives

Batteries Overhead lines

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

• National Grid UK: substation tech specialist, transformers

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

Big Money, Big Data…

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

From “Field Experiences with SFRA”

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

Failure modes: Connection / bushing

Thermal faults Low oil level

Insulation Arcing / electrical

External damage/ disturbance

Overheating / Auxiliary cooling

Singer/Songwriter: Paul Simon

So… we need to have some interest in time: probability of failure, by when?

A number/code/color/term to represent the health of an asset:

Whatever index we derive…

… it should not be a surprise!

It should ‘document’ what we think we know!

It may be a proxy for ‘Probability of Failure’

They are representations of transformers… they are ‘models’ … digital twins!

And from Dr. Cox2:

Depending on how you built the ‘health index’, it could:

"Life is under no obligation to

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

• Who needs a health index?

How do we turn the measured pressure into a health index?

What categories are acceptable? Useful?

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

PU Ageing: HST, +/-3

HST-D3 HST HST+D3

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David (1999).

"Unskilled and Unaware of It”

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

“ People with a little knowledge usually have

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

Revised System – still 1-4, but more detail

Overall Condition Core and Windings Oil OLTC Exterior

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

©2022 Altanova Group. All Rights Reserved.

Sapolski: ‘We think in categories3’