Command

Free

N e w s N e t wo r k
Issue 7 The Headlines of Today. The Battles of Tomorrow. Est – 2016

Middle East proxy war

Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

As the US steps back from a glob- the Shia/Sunni schism in Islam of which, important regional directly to assist its neighbours
al leadership role, the chances and argue these conflicts are powers in their own right, have government. The delicate geopo-
of a final clash between two re- the Muslim world’s modern been fighting a series a proxy litical balance has also been up-
gional powers in the Middle East equivalent of Christianity’s 30 wars between each other for re- set by the US-led invasion of Iraq
edges closer. Year War in the 1600s between ligious leadership of the Muslim and subsequent chaos – allowing
What connects the conflict European Protestant and Catholic world. This rivalry has seen Iran to move into the power vac-
and bloodshed in Syria, Yemen, denominations. Saudi-backed rebel forces fight uum vacated by their bitter rival.
and an ‘arc of instability’ across Viewed through this prism, Iran’s ally Syria, while in Yemen, In this analysis, the West, though
the Middle East and North the two key players here are Shia Iran-backed Houthi rebels have
Africa? Some analysts point to Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, both seen Saudi Arabia intervene Continued on page 2 è
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The brewing proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

undoubtedly a source of friction suspicion for years of developing work on WMDs. And, while Saudi weapons thanks to close links to
and a rallying call for extrem- nuclear weapons, is now enjoy- Arabia is currently a non-nuclear the Pakistan nuclear programme
ists, is actually a bystander in a ing a relaxation in international power, some analysts suspect it if Iran moves to resume or ac-
deep-seated and long-standing sanctions, after agreeing to halt could quickly acquire nuclear celerate its nuclear development
religiously-inspired war for re-
gional dominance.
This schism is of course, not
new, and the Iran-Iraq war of
the 1980s saw Shia-Sunni states
clash directly. And indeed, the
Cold War itself saw proxy wars
fought in Korea, Afghanistan and
Vietnam between the two super-
powers on a global scale to as-
sert the supremacy of opposing
political systems.
However, now we are in new
territory. Nuclear weapons and
Mutual Assured Destruction
(MAD) in the Cold War meant
that the US and USSR were aware
that escalation could quickly spi-
ral out of control and thus were
careful not to stray beyond rec-
ognised limits.
Today, the situation is much
more ambiguous. Iran, under Saudi F15.
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“ Similar claims that Tehran has

”
engineered US stealth UAVs must thus
also be taken with caution. You need the Command
base game to play
in defiance of the international version of the Strike Eagle – the Black Gold Blitz.
community. (Indeed some ob- F-15SA. This has new cockpit
servers note that while Saudi displays, AESA radar, digital EW
Arabia does not have formal and a new FBW system, which
diplomatic relations with Israel, adds two extra weapon stations
it would most likely turn a ‘blind and will give the Saudi AF a lethal
eye’ if Tel Aviv decided to transit long-range strike aircraft.
through Saudi airspace to strike In addition, the Kingdom an eye on the threat across the arms sales. To its credit, its en-
Iranian nuclear facilities). The also maintains a strong National Persian Gulf. gineers and technicians have
threat of Irans exporting its Guard as a domestic paramilitary Traditionally, Saudi Arabia’s worked wonders to operate,
subversion, thus has resulted in arm, but equipped with heavy military capability while fear- maintain and even upgrade and
oddball alliances like Israel and weaponry such as APCs, self- some on paper has been weak reverse-engineer US weapon
Saudi Arabia. propelled artillery and AH-64 in personnel, relying heavily on systems first delivered in the
Second, there is a new factor and AH-6 Littlebird helicopters. foreign contractors for training, 1970s. Some of these have
in that the US is seemingly pulling Unable to acquire the heavily maintenance, support and ad- demonstrated high levels of in-
back from its global leadership restricted armed UAVs from the vice. However the recent actions novation – keeping F-14 Tomcats
role, to an America-first agenda US, Saudi has turned to China in Yemen have provided valuable (probably the IIRAFs most po-
focussed on jobs and trade. Some and operates the Rainbow CH-4B experience in modern COIN op- tent interceptor) flying and even
effects of may already being felt. armed drone. erations, precision targeting and adding new capabilities in modi-
It is notable, for instance, that In naval forces, its most re- undoubtedly helped to hone the fied I-Hawk SAMs as AAMs. (It is
earlier in 2017 saw a major cri- cent acquisition has been the combat edge of the Saudi armed notable that the vast ‘Boneyard’
sis erupt between Saudi Arabia, La Fayette-class Frigates from forces. of hundreds of retired US mili-
UAE and other Gulf allies against France. However a giant $110bn tary aircraft in Arizona has only
Qatar over this states too-friend- defence deal, agreed with the US Iran a handful of Tomcats – a clue that
ly relations with Tehran and sup- in March 2017, also included four Meanwhile, Iran’s armed forces, the US was keen not to see spare
port for the Muslim Brotherhood. multi-mission frigates as well as though powerful in terms of parts be used to keep Iranian
More recently, both Saudi Arabia the US THAAD anti-ballistic mis- numbers, have been severely F-14s flying). Meanwhile it has
and UAE have reportedly steered sile system – like the S-400 deal, dented by years of international also modified its F-4 Phantoms,
away from traditional US defence a defence procurement with sanctions and restrictions on another relic of the Shah’s era to
suppliers by seeking to acquire
S-400 SAM and Su-35 multi-
ple fighters respectively from
Russia – an illuminating state-
ment of intent that they may see
Washington’s influence on the
wane and may be acting to hedge
their bets with a new partner.
So how do the these regional
powers measure up?

Saudi Arabia
With its vast oil wealth and con-
nections to the US, Saudi Arabia
has one of the most potent armed
forces in the Middle East – with
Typhoons and F-15s in the Royal
Saudi Air Force, as well as E-3
AWACS and Saab Erieye AEW
platforms. It also has a modern
air-to-air refuelling fleet in the
form of Airbus A330MRTT tank-
ers. While the RSAF has a long his-
tory with the F-15C dating back to
the 1980s, it is also in the process
of acquiring the most advanced La Fayette Frigate.
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Iranian MiG-29A.

carry Chinese anti-ship missiles. and the Houthi rebels in Yemen choke point for the worlds oil. ignite a wider and direct conflict
The IIRAF also operates Russian with rockets. Indeed, it was be- Iran has also developed a capa- between these two religiously
types, such as MiG-29As, Su-24 lieved to be Chinese-made, Iran- bility in UAVs, and claims that it conservative and muscular
Fencers and Su-25s. supplied C-802 anti-ship missiles has reverse-engineered and put regional powers is significant.
However, in other areas this launched by Houthi forces that into production a captured US Absent of the focus of Iran’s nu-
reverse-engineering and indig- were fired at and, intercepted stealth ISR drone, the Lockheed clear programme (now on hold)
enous weapons systems has had by a US warship off the coast of Martin RQ-170 Sentinel, that the most likely targets for each
mixed results and is of uncertain Yemen in October 2016. crashed in 2011. Other Iran- side will be the other country’s
quality or usefulness – from In asymmetric capabilities, built tactical UAVs have also oil and gas facilities, with the
twin-tailed variants of the F-5E, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard been supplied to groups such as intention of strikes to cripple
to modified AH-1 gunships. Iran’s also operates small armed Hezobollah. their overall energy production
own indigenously developed speedboats, fast attack craft and therefore income (as was in
‘stealth fighter’, the Qaher-31, re- and even Wing in Ground effect Summary the Iran-Iraq war). Whether one
vealed the world in 2013, gener- craft. In any conflict, these can In conclusion, then, the poten- side can swiftly overmatch the
ated much derision from experts be expected to be a significant tial for escalation and for one other, or whether this indeed
with speed gauges apparently re- threat in the narrow waters of of these proxy wars (or a dif- drags on for another 30 years is
moved from a Cessna, an opaque the Straits of Hormuz, a natural ferent incident altogether) to another question.
canopy and other design features
that seemed to indicate that this
was a propaganda stunt aimed at
domestic audiences, rather than
an actual combat aircraft.
Similar claims that Tehran has
developed and has operational
super-cavitating torpedoes, or
reverse-engineered US stealth
UAVs must thus also be taken
with caution.
However, the two main
strengths of Iran are in its ballis-
tic missile forces (its latest test in
September 2017 saw a 2,000km
ranged missile, reportedly able
to carry multiple warheads test
fired) and in its asymmetric war-
fare capabilities – through the
Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Its rocket forces range from
short-range artillery missiles
and upgraded tactical SCUDs to
medium-range ballistic types.
It also supplies allies and insur-
gent groups such as Hezbollah Khark island, Iran.