2/1/23, 8:36 AM 2023 Punjab provincial election - Wikipedia

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1Electoral system
2Background

3Campaign
4Opinion polls

4.1Punjab Assembly Voting intention

4.1.1Punjab

5Notes
6References

2023 Punjab provincial election

Provincial elections are scheduled to be held in Punjab within 90 days after the early dissolution of
the Provincial Assembly, which happened on 14 January 2023. Therefore, an election will be held no 2023 Punjab provincial election
later than 14 April 2023.

Electoral system No later than 14 April 2023

The 371 seats of the Punjab Assembly consist of 297 general seats, whose members are elected by the
first-past-the-post voting system through single-member constituencies. 66 seats are reserved for 297 out of 371 seats in the Provincial Assembly[a]
women and 8 seats are reserved for non-Muslims. The members on these seats are elected through 186 seats needed for a majority
proportional representation based on the total number of general seats secured by each political party.
 

Background

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In the 2018 election, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged as the largest party in the Provincial Leader TBD Hamza Shahbaz
Assembly of Punjab after 25 independents joined it. However, the PTI was still 2 seats short of a Sharif
majority. After the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML(Q)) agreed to support the PTI, they formed a
Party PTI PML(N)
coalition government in the province.[1] The Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML(N)) emerged as the
second largest party and formed the opposition. Alliance - PDM
Last election 33.72%, 184 seats 31.88%, 164 seats
During a political crisis in Pakistan after the successful no-confidence motion against Prime Minister
Current seats 180 167
Imran Khan, another motion of no confidence was filed against Chief Minister Usman Buzdar, as well
as against Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Dost Muhammad Mazari, the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of Seats needed 6 19
the Provincial Assembly, respectively. Buzdar resigned before a vote on the motion of no confidence
could be held and as a consequence, an election for a new Chief Minister was scheduled on 16 April
between PML(N)'s Hamza Shahbaz, the joint candidate of the Pakistan Democratic Movement, and
PML(Q)'s Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the joint candidate of his party and PTI. On the day of the election,
25 PTI MPAs crossed the floor to support Shahbaz, violating party policy. During the very beginning of
the Assembly session on 16 April, a riot began between PTI and PML-N supporters. PTI MPAs threw
ewers at the Deputy Speaker, as well as slapping him. The police entered the Assembly for the first
time in its history and arrested 3 MPAs.[2] The Deputy Speaker then presided over the Assembly
session in the visitors gallery and declared Shahbaz the winner by securing 197 votes.[3]

After the floor crossing, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) de-seated 25 dissident PTI MPAs
for defection in the light of Article 63-A of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on 20
May 2022.[4] Five of these MPAs were elected on reserved seats (3 for women and 2 for minorities)
and new PTI MPAs were notified on these seats on 7 July.[5]
Map of Punjab with Provincial Assembly constituencies
By-elections were held on 17 July 2022 to elect the remaining 20 members. The PTI won in a
landslide, emerging victorious on 15 of those 20 seats, leading to the collapse of Chief Minister Hamza
Incumbent Chief Minister
Shahbaz's PML-N led coalition government, as their coalition became 7 seats short of a majority.[6]
Elahi took oath as the Chief Minister of Punjab on 27 July 2022, leading a PTI-PML(Q) coalition
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi
government.
PML(Q)
On 12 January 2023, after winning a vote of confidence the night before, Elahi sent a letter to
Governor Baligh Ur Rehman, advising him to dissolve the Provincial Assembly. Rehman excused
himself from the dissolution process and after 48 hours, the Assembly automatically stood dissolved. Elections must be conducted within 90 days of the
dissolution, meaning by or before 14 April 2023.[7][8]

On 22 January 2023, Mohsin Raza Naqvi took oath as the caretaker Chief Minister of Punjab. He was nominated by the Election Commission of Pakistan after
days of deadlock between the government and the opposition over who to nominate.[9]

Campaign

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A day after the Assembly was dissolved, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML(Q)) Punjab president and outgoing Chief Minister, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi,
hinted at a possible merger of the PML(Q) with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). As a consequence, the president of the PML(Q) and former Prime
Minister, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who is also Elahi’s cousin, issued him a show-cause notice and suspended his party membership. On the other hand, the
office-bearers of the PML(Q)’s electoral college authorised Elahi to take decisions on behalf of the party, in regards to the potential merger.[10]

Opinion polls
In the run up to the 2023 Pakistani general elections, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout
Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The results of such polls are displayed in
this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

Punjab Assembly Voting intention

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The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they
didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to
make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Punjab

Last date Sample Undecideds &

Polling PTI PML(N) PPP TLP Other Ind.
firm of polling Link Lead size Non-voters

PA 14 January 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and a snap election is called.
Oct 2022
By- 16 October 2022 49.0% 42.5% 7.0% 1.5% 6.3% 351,267 6,483
elections
Jul 2022
By- 17 July 2022 [11] 46.8% 39.5% 5.5% 7.9% 7.3% 2,240,465 1.59
elections
NA 11-12 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
PDF
(http
s://ipo
r.com.
IPOR 21 March 2022 pk/upl 34% 42% 6% 2% 16% 8% ~1,900 N/A
(IRI) oads/
6241b
e438e
13a.p
df)
Gallup 31 January 2022 PDF 35% 43% 7% 3% 9% 3% 8% ~3,100 31%
Pakistan (http
s://we
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ive.or
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b/202
20327
02205
6/http
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erform

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Last date Sample Undecideds &

Polling PTI PML(N) PPP TLP Other Ind.
Link Lead
firm of polling size Non-voters

ance-
Rating
s-Of-
Gover
nmen
t.pdf)
PDF
(http
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20403
IPOR 9 January 2022 21523 31% 46% 5% 3% 15% 15% 2,035 N/A
(IRI) 8/http
s://ipo
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pk/upl
oads/
62056
9c4e0
15e.p
df)
PDF
(http
s://we
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01121
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2/htt
p://ipo
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IPOR 11 November 2020 pk/wp 26% 39% 5% 2% 27% 1% 13% 1,089 N/A
(IRI) -conte
nt/upl
oads/
2020/
11/A-
Nation
-wide-
Opinio
n-Sur
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TI-vs-
PDM-.
pdf)

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2/1/23, 8:36 AM 2023 Punjab provincial election - Wikipedia

Last date Sample Undecideds &

Polling PTI PML(N) PPP TLP Other Ind.
Link Lead
firm of polling size Non-voters

ECP
(http
s://we
b.arc
hive.o
rg/we
b/202
20129
2018 25 July 2018 04160 33.6% 31.7% 5.4% 5.7% 4.8% 18.8% 1.9% 33,218,101 N/A
Elections 8/http
s://w
ww.ec
p.gov.
pk/fr
mVot
eban
k.asp
x)

Notes
1. 66 seats are reserved for Women and 8 are reserved for Non-Muslims filled through Proportional representation

References
1. "PML-Q to hold talks with PTI at Bani Gala today, sources claim" (http://tri 6. "Pakistan: Former PM Imran Khan stuns rivals with Punjab by-election
bune.com.pk/story/1769114/pml-q-join-hands-pti-punjab-coalition-govt-so upset" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62206374). BBC News.
urces-say). The Express Tribune. 2018-07-29. Retrieved 2022-09-15. 2022-07-18. Retrieved 2022-07-19.
2. Khawaja, Naseer (2022-04-16). "Punjab Assembly: Police enters house, 7. Farooq, Umar (12 January 2023). "CM Elahi signs summary for dissolving
takes MPAs into custody after brawl" (https://arynews.tv/punjab-assembly- Punjab Assembly" (https://www.dawn.com/news/1731275/cm-elahi-signs-
police-enters-house-takes-mpas-into-custody-after-brawl/). ARY NEWS. summary-for-dissolving-punjab-assembly). DAWN News. Retrieved
Retrieved 2022-07-01. 12 January 2023.
3. Sheikh, Adnan (2022-04-16). "Hamza Shehbaz elected Punjab CM after 8. Sheikh, Adnan (14 January 2023). "Punjab Assembly stands dissolved as
garnering 197 votes in session marred by melees, chaos" (https://www.da governor decides "to not become part of process" " (https://www.dawn.co
wn.com/news/1685288). Dawn. Retrieved 2022-07-01. m/news/1731612/punjab-assembly-stands-dissolved-as-governor-decides
4. Chaudhry, Fahad (2022-05-20). "ECP de-seats 25 dissident PTI MPAs for -to-not-become-part-of-process). Retrieved 14 January 2023.
defection" (https://www.dawn.com/news/1690623). DAWN.COM. 9. Sadozai, Irfan (22 January 2023). "Mohsin Naqvi sworn in as Punjab
Retrieved 2022-07-01. caretaker chief minister" (https://www.dawn.com/news/1733051/mohsin-n
5. Virk, Saqib; Malik, Hasnaat (2022-07-07). "PTI bags five reserved seats in aqvi-sworn-in-as-punjab-caretaker-chief-minister). DAWN News.
PA" (http://tribune.com.pk/story/2365069/pti-bags-five-reserved-seats-in-p Retrieved 22 January 2023.
a). The Express Tribune. Retrieved 2022-07-09. 10. Raza, Syed Irfan (17 January 2023). " 'Q'-PTI merger plan lands Elahi in
trouble" (https://www.dawn.com/news/1732059). DAWN News. Retrieved
17 January 2023.

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