CMO-2022-Hulst Presentation v01

Commercial
Market Outlook
2022-2041
Darren Hulst
Vice President, Commercial Marketing Proprietary: The information contained herein is proprietary to The Boeing
Company and shall not be reproduced or disclosed in whole or in part except
when such user possesses direct written authorization from The Boeing Company.
The
Thestatements
statementscontained
containedherein
hereinare
arebased
basedonongood
goodfaith
faithassumptions
assumptionsarearetotobebe
July 13, 2022 used
usedforfor
general information
general purposes
information purposes only. These
only. statements
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notnot
constitute
constitute
an offer, promise, warrantyanor guarantee
offer, of warranty
promise, performance.
or guarantee of performance.
Copyright © 2022 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Copyright | BOEING
© 2022 Boeing. PROPRIETARY
All rights reserved. | CSM | |DAH
CSM-PM&A
| CMOROLL| | 01JAN21
13JUL22
Passenger recovery dynamics: still demand, supply, regulation
Early pandemic framework still holds, drivers shifting
Demand
Passengers
Health Supply
Confidence Airlines
Affordability Workforce
Fleet decisions
Capital
Regulation
Governments
Travel regulation
Sustainability
Infrastructure
Copyright © 2022 Boeing. All rights reserved. | CSM | DAH | CMOROLL | 13JUL22
Economic outlook uncertainty rising…
Tailwinds Headwinds
Accumulated savings High inflation

Employment / rising wages Supply chain challenges
Business investment Financial market volatility
…but economy not the key constraint on air traffic near-term
9/11 & dot-com recession Global Financial Crisis COVID-19 pandemic

100 12
90
10
80
World GDP
70
8
GDP in $ trillions
RPKs in trillions
60
World RPKs
50 6
40
4
30
20
2
10
0 0
SOURCES: S&P Global, ICAO, Boeing Analysis

Recovery is multi-speed
May traffic vs. 2019 levels Rotating growth sources
International Domestic
Asia Pacific 50%
40% 60% Africa
30% 70% Advanced
Domestic economies
International
20% 80% Europe
Leisure
Latin America Emerging
10% 90% markets
Middle East
0% 100% North America
Business
SOURCE: IATA
Airlines adapting networks
Single-aisle airport pairs Widebody airport pairs

18,000 97% 3,500
served
16,000
3,000
14,000
2,500 77%
12,000 21% served
new
10,000 2,000
8,000 1,500
22%
new
6,000
1,000
4,000
500
2,000
0 0
2019 Not New 2022 2019 Not New 2022
served served
July schedules
Airline fleets stabilizing, replacement opportunity evident
Passenger single-aisle Passenger widebodies

18,000 5,000
16,000
98%
14,000 4,000 78%
12,000
3,000
10,000
8,000
2,000
6,000
4,000 1,000
2,000
0 0
base base
SOURCES: FlightRadar24, Boeing

Data through Week 27 (6/26 - 7/2), normalized with 2019 schedule and FR24 operations
Recovery timeline fundamentally unchanged
125%
Strong domestic recoveries are
100%
currently constrained by China and
capacity challenges in US, Europe
RPKs in % of 2019
75%
International recovery currently
50% Total outpacing expectations led by
transatlantic
25%
0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
SOURCE: Boeing analysis
Increasingly competitive airline industry
Mainline jet city pairs with daily service and
at least two airlines competing
~60% of markets 2.3X
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
SOURCE: OAG/Innovata, mainline jets, at least daily round trip service
Families are indispensable to single-aisle operators
4 sizes 1 size
13% 8%
2 sizes
3 sizes
40%
39%
92%
Operate two or more
airplane sizes
Airlines groups with fleets of 30 or more single-aisles account for 82% of global single-aisle fleet
SOURCE: Cirium Fleets Analyzer
Long-haul single-aisle: niche markets
Single-aisle flights
700,000
All frequencies 1.4X

600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0.3% Long-haul frequencies 0.2%

0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
SOURCE: Diio by Cirium, August schedules. Long-haul >3,000sm

Small and medium widebodies gaining share
Airplane range less dependent on size
100%
Large
747
A380
Medium
75%
widebody
777
A340
MD11
50% 787-10
A350-1000
Small
widebody
25% 787-8/-9
A350-900
A330
767
A300/A310
0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Change since December 2019 (number of seats)
Airlines adjusting cabin mix
4%
3.1%
Change since December 2019 (number of seats)

2%
0.1% 0.1%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-6.4%
-8%
First class Business Premium Economy
class economy class
SOURCE: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, widebody airplanes

Pandemic disruptions boosting near-term freighter demand…
Traffic at historic highs Belly capacity (ATKs) still down by 1/3 Pricing double
10
Pre-Pandemic
Air cargo traffic (RTKs)
263 272 8 Global

254 May 2022
Moving 7-day total
229 6
Dedicated freighters
Trans-Pacific
4
2
Widebody passenger belly Trans-Atlantic
0
May-20
May-21
May-22
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
Aug-20
Nov-20
Aug-21
Nov-21
Europe-Asia
2018 2019 2020 2021
…and structural drivers supporting longer-term freighter demand
E-commerce
network
growth
Value relative
to container GDP
shipping Industrial
production
Trade
Evolving
supply chain
strategies
20-year forecast:
long-term fundamentals
remain intact
2.6%
World economy
(GDP)
3.8%
Passenger traffic
(RPK)
4.1%
Cargo traffic
(RTK)
2.8%
Fleet growth
(jets)
Forecast period 2022-2041

Airlines will need 41,170 new airplanes over 20 years
30,880
Latin America Africa
2%
Middle East 5% North America
7% 23%
By region
By type
China 21%
2,120 7,230 21%
940
Regional jet Single-aisle Widebody Freighter Asia Pacific
21%
5% 75% 18% 2% Europe
Forecast period 2022-2041, Asia Pacific does not include China
Airlines will need 19,575 new airplanes over 10 years
14,620 Latin America Africa

2%
Middle East 5% North America
7%
By region
25%
By type
China 20%
1,170 3,300 485 21%

Regional jet Single-aisle Widebody Freighter 20%
Asia Pacific
6% 75% 17% 2% Europe
Forecast period 2022-2041, Asia Pacific does not include China
Global fleet will nearly double; half of deliveries for replacement
50,000
21,180 47,080
40,000
30,000
25,900 19,990
20,000
10,000
5,910
0
2019 Fleet Retained Replacement Growth 2041 Fleet
Fleet*
*Retained fleet includes 2020-21 deliveries
Freighter fleet to grow 80% by 2041
New large 4,000 3,610

515 widebodies
3,000
Widebody 2,010
Deliveries 1,300
conversions 2,000
555
2,795
New medium
widebodies 1,000
Fleet
Standard-body 0
425 2019 2041
conversions Freighters Freighters
Forecast period 2022-2041
The most versatile and efficient aircraft family
777-9
777-8
787-10
787-9
787-8
737-10
737-9
737-8-200
737-8
737-7
100 200 300 400 Seats 500
737 787 777X

the most versatile the only complete the next long-haul
single-aisle family widebody family market leader
Copyright © 2022 Boeing. All rights reserved. | CSM | DAH | CMOROLL | 13JUN22
Boeing freighters are proven and preferred
777-8F
777F
767-300F
767-300BCF
737-800BCF
0 40 80 Tonnes 120
Payload and Industry-leading Most sustainable

range for reliability and and most
every market performance capable
Copyright © 2022 Boeing. All rights reserved. | CSM | DAH | CMOROLL | 13JUN22
Decarbonizing aviation
Fleet Operational Renewable Advanced

Renewal Efficiency Energy Technology
Commercial Services
Market Outlook
Digital
Training & Solutions &
Professional Analytics
Services
$3.6 trillion
2022-2041
Maintenance, Repair,
Overhaul & Modifications
Global & Regional Outlook
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Commercial

Copyright © 2022 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Accumulated savings High inflation

9/11 & dot-com recession Global Financial Crisis COVID-19 pandemic

SOURCES: S&P Global, ICAO, Boeing Analysis

May traffic vs. 2019 levels Rotating growth sources

Single-aisle airport pairs Widebody airport pairs

Passenger single-aisle Passenger widebodies

SOURCES: FlightRadar24, Boeing

~60% of markets 2.3X

All frequencies 1.4X

0.3% Long-haul frequencies 0.2%

SOURCE: Diio by Cirium, August schedules. Long-haul >3,000sm

Change since December 2019 (number of seats)

SOURCE: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, widebody airplanes

263 272 8 Global

Forecast period 2022-2041

14,620 Latin America Africa

1,170 3,300 485 21%

New large 4,000 3,610

100 200 300 400 Seats 500

737 787 777X

Payload and Industry-leading Most sustainable

Fleet Operational Renewable Advanced

Download the CMO app for

Regional Passenger Traffic Growth Air Cargo Outlook

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