New Country Risk Analysis - Vietnam
New Country Risk Analysis - Vietnam
New Country Risk Analysis - Vietnam
Risk
Analysis:
Vietnam
Group 9
By
Vikrant Bhatia - 22DM293
Aman Sharma - 22DM311
Tinesh K - 22DM314
Robin Singh Deshwal - 22DM327
Paras jain - 22DM331
Sandip roy - 22DM338
Bishal Shah - 22DM341
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
It is a great pleasure to express our deepest gratitude and sincere thanks to our highly respected and
esteemed guide Dr. Monika Jain for her valuable supervision, encouragement, and help in finishing this
work. We really appreciate her helpful ideas, insights, and guidance on how to work together. Without
her help, we would not have been able to finish this project. We also want to thank him for her smart
ideas, wise advice, huge interest, and intellectual stimulation, without which the project would not have
happened.
INTRODUCTION
Vietnam is a developing nation with a large population. In the past three decades, it has had to recover
from the devastation of war, the loss of funds from the former Soviet Bloc, and the rigidity of a centrally
planned economy. Vietnam is a country that is located in Southeast Asia.
After 1975, when North and South Vietnam reunited, the country's economy remained essentially
unchanged until 1985. This time span spanned the years 1975 to 1985. However, market reforms have
been implemented since then. These reforms have opened the country to global investment and
significantly altered the business climate in Vietnam. Because of these improvements, the business
climate in Vietnam has significantly improved.
Vietnam's economy has risen at one of the quickest rates in the world during the past several years. Each
year from 2004 to 2007, the GDP increased by more than 8%. After reaching a peak of more than 8%,
growth slowed to 6.2% and 5.3% in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
In 2009, the government employed both fiscal and monetary policies that stimulated economic
expansion. This ensured that the economy would grow sufficiently to survive the entire year. Individual
consumers' buying patterns are negatively affected by the growth in unemployment, the decline in
remittances, and the slowdown of foreign direct investment.
Due to the decline in economic activity and the stimulus package, the government deficit expanded
substantially in 2009. It is anticipated that the deficit would remain elevated in 2010. This is because the
deficit increased substantially in 2009. There is a significant likelihood that the government's debt will
continue to increase, and since half of it is denominated in a foreign currency, it will be susceptible to
fluctuations in exchange rates. This increases the likelihood that a sovereign nation will not carry out its
responsibilities.
POLITICAL RISK
Political risk is often described as the hazard that political instability or change poses to commercial
interests. Political risk exists in every nation on the earth, while its severity and character vary from
nation to nation. Changes in government policy to manage currency rates and interest rates may pose
political risks.
Political Events
In January 2021, the Vietnamese Communist Party convened its thirteenth Party Congress. General
Secretary of the Party Nguyen Phu-Trong was re-elected for a third straight term. The three important
leadership positions, including President, Prime Minister, and National Assembly Speaker, were also
filled.
Government Policies
Foreign Investments
Foreign interests must be registered by foreign investors. Foreign investment projects may be approved
by the province Department of Planning and Investment or the board of administration of the industrial
zone or park where the project is located. Before they may be given to the local investment authority,
however, larger projects and projects in particular industries require "decision on in-principle investment"
permission from higher-level government entities, such as the National Assembly, the Prime Minister, or
the provincial People's Committee.
Specific Industries
As a result of its 2007 entrance to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Vietnam has made numerous
service sector obligations under the Schedule on Specific Commitments in Services. If a foreign
investment incorporates the business operations described in these WTO agreements, the investment
criteria and restrictions outlined in those documents will apply in addition to applicable local law. If a
foreign investment involves commercial activity not defined by Vietnam's WTO commitments, only
domestic law applies. If domestic legislation is silent, foreign investment may nonetheless be permitted
on a case-by-case basis.
The Law on Investment of 2020 and its accompanying rules describe various economic activities for
which foreign investment is now prohibited or subject to conditions.
Economic Risk
In the previous six months, both industrial and consumer spending have increased significantly,
propelling Vietnam's economic recovery forward. Standard Chartered Bank projects Vietnam's economic
growth to be 7.2% in 2023 and 6.7% in 2024, and inflation to be 1.1% in 2024. Vietnam's GDP growth
has increased to almost 8.02% in 2022, with a robust development in 2022. The annual inflation rate in
Vietnam rose from 4.55 percent in December 2022 to 4.89 percent in January 2023.
Potential threats include commodity price declines, interruptions in global supply chains, the introduction
of new COVID-19 variations, and a recession or stagflation in significant export markets. Domestic
challenges include continuing labor shortages, the potential for rising inflation, and heightened banking
sector vulnerabilities.
The Vietnamese economy has demonstrated resilience despite trade fears and China's lackluster
development. This fast economic expansion is the result of a change in labor from agricultural to
manufacturing and services, private investment, a developing tourism industry, increasing wages, and
urbanization. Some industries, such as industrial production, textile manufacture, electronics
manufacturing, and seafood production, are undergoing substantial expansion. Vietnam's exports account
for an increasing share of its gross domestic product. In 2020 and 2021, growth decreased due to the
COVID-19 outbreak, but remained favorable at 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.
According to the IMF, the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product was 41.67% in 2020, up
from 41.29% in 2019 and 39.71% in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, it is expected that the rate will stabilize at
40.21 and 40.51%. This sluggish growth is attributable to the tightening of monetary policy and the
adoption of new restrictions on government guarantees. The economic expansion of Vietnam is
underpinned by an extensive trading network, growing wages, and domestic consumption. However,
labor prices remain competitive, which helps to attract foreign investment. Among the economic
constraints were inadequate infrastructure, an unfriendly business climate, anticipated public sector
changes, increasing inequality, and weak financial institutions. The budget deficit remained below 4% of
GDP in 2021 as a result of tax reform and the privatization of state-owned firms. (Financial Post, 2022).
Approximately forty percent of Vietnam's debt has a medium- or long-term maturity, which poses a
substantial risk because forty percent of this debt is denominated in foreign currencies and so poses a
currency risk. In spite of this, the government continues to intervene in both directions to keep the Dong
within a restricted range relative to major international currencies and to accrue foreign reserves.
The unemployment rate in Vietnam remains extraordinarily low. It rose to 3.3% in 2020 from 2.2% in
2019 and 2.8% in 2021. The rate in December 2022 was 2.32 percent, while the rate in the first quarter of
2023 is predicted to be 2.40 percent.
Fund Mondial Économique, october 2021 Reduction of poverty, development of higher education, and
press freedom are examples of social issues. Vietnam is placed 77th out of 180 nations on the Corruption
Perceptions Index 2022 by Transparency International, up from 87th a year earlier.
Score 60.6/100
World Rank 84
Regional Rank 18
Business Environment Ranking
The methodology underlying the business rankings evaluates the quality or attractiveness of the business
climate in each of the 82 nations that The Economist Intelligence Unit analyses for its Country Forecast
reports. The order of these nations is from best to worst. It examines 10 distinct factors or categories,
such as the political environment, macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, government policy
regarding free enterprise and competition, and government policy addressing foreign investment.
Score 6.25/10
Risk Assessment
• Rate of growth will return to levels seen before the outbreak
It is projected that growth would accelerate in 2022, fueled by sustained economic recoveries among
trading partners and domestic demand. This is because it is anticipated that the global economy will
continue to expand. On the other hand, challenges linked with epidemics may continue to be a problem at
both the regional and the global levels. If outbreaks persist, the government may opt to implement
additional restrictions. This will continue to exert pressure on the manufacturing sector, which accounts
for 17% of the nation's gross domestic product, as well as the agricultural supply chains. On the other
hand, it is projected that the foreign demand would continue to be robust in the year 2022, notably for
electronics, textiles, and garments. Vietnam is no longer at risk of accruing punitive tariffs from the
United States, which labeled Vietnam a currency manipulator in 2020. As a result of restrictions, firms
reduced their production levels during the first nine months of 2021, although this had little to no effect
on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). On the other hand, it is projected that it will make a comeback since
Vietnam continues to be intriguing to foreign investors who are seeking diversification and shifting firms
away from China. This is the primary reason behind the belief that it will return. The tourism industry,
which contributed around 10% of GDP in 2019, has been significantly damaged as a result of the closure
of international borders effective in March of 2020. As a result of ongoing travel restrictions in China (the
Zero COVID campaign) and cautious behavior on the part of Koreans, it is anticipated that the business
would recover gradually by 2022. Having said that, the good effects of government incentives on
domestic tourism should continue to somewhat outweigh the effects of the government's measures that
have a negative influence. It is projected that household spending, which accounted for 69% of GDP in
2019, will gradually recover provided that restraints are relaxed, mainly on manufacturers and workers. In
2019, domestic consumption accounted for 69% of the total. In the second half of 2021, the
unemployment rate reached record highs, reaching 2.9% in September 2021; it will take some time for the
economy to absorb the consequences of this record high. As a result of the recovery in domestic demand
in 2022, the inflation rate should gradually approach the target of 4%. Therefore, the SBV, which is the
central bank, should either maintain the status quo on its policy rate or raise it to the level it had prior to
the outbreak. Demand for credit ought to build up again in 2022, and it will continue to benefit from
credit easing measures up to June 2022. These steps could take the shape of debt restructuring or interest
rate reductions on existing loans; in either case, the demand for credit is likely to increase. On the other
hand, an increase in loans that are regarded to be non-performing is anticipated for the year 2022.
• The budget deficit is still quite high, although the current
account has improved
As the consequences of the COVID-19 outbreaks that began in late 2021 may continue to be seen in
2022, it is probable that the budget deficit will continue to be of a reasonably substantial extent. In
addition, the government's efforts to expedite the completion of ongoing public infrastructure projects
would lead to an increase in expenses. The progression of these projects was hindered due to the use of
containment measures at the various construction sites. In order to preserve equilibrium, a rise in
expenses must be counterbalanced by a rise in revenues, which must be supported by expanding
momentum. It is projected that the public debt-to-GDP ratio will continue its recent downward trend.
Despite this, the debt is still susceptible to fluctuations in currency values, as forty percent of it is
denominated in a foreign currency.
It is projected that the current account surplus would make a comeback, which will be fueled by an
increase in the trade surplus and robust demand from foreign clients. The nation has profited from the
relocation of industrial operations from other nations; to improve its trade balance, it should continue to
build its export-driven economy. As a direct result of the recovery of consumer and investment demand, it
is anticipated that imports will continue to exhibit signs of expansion. In addition, Vietnam is one of the
top 10 countries in the world to receive remittances, and its current account could gain from ongoing
remittances inflows (6% of GDP as of 2019), since the key sources of remittances are expected to resume
recovering in 2019. Vietnam is one of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of receiving remittances.
Canada, the United States of America, and Australia As of July 2021, the quantity of foreign exchange
reserves kept by the country is sufficient to cover imports for three and a half months' worth of goods.
• Toward a further level of collaboration with China
In Vietnam, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) has strengthened its control over the government,
the media, and the military. As a result, the CPV has been effective in sustaining the country's unitary
government. Nguyen Phu Trong was elected by the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) to begin an
exceptional third consecutive five-year term as general secretary of the Communist Party at the start of
2021. This was a first in the history of the party. He will continue to advance the domestic agenda he is
already pursuing, with a special emphasis on the fight against corruption. As the leader's health has been
slowly declining since 2019, he should also make it a priority to build a new leadership that will be
elected at the next party congress to ensure a seamless transfer. This will ensure that the party's routine
operations continue throughout this period. Both the recent easing of limitations on commerce between
the two communist countries and the development of a strategy for expanded bilateral cooperation
between 2021 and 2025 have contributed to the improvement of the current situation of relations with
China. Despite the inconveniences caused by the outbreak in Vietnam, the pandemic has given Beijing
the opportunity to enhance its ties with Vietnam through its vaccine diplomacy. Despite the fact that
Vietnam has been disproportionately affected by the outbreak, this is the case. In respect to the South
China Sea issue, China has exerted pressure on Vietnam to abandon oil and gas projects backed by
international oil companies. These projects are currently being built in Vietnam. Despite the fact that the
United States has given Vietnam its backing in challenging Beijing in the South China Sea, it is highly
doubtful that Vietnam will accept this support in order to maintain its strong relations with China. It is
quite improbable that Vietnam will accept the assistance given by the United States in order to maintain
its good relations with China.
SOVEREIGN RISK
A country is vulnerable to Sovereign Risk when it fails to pay its debts and interest payments. In such
circumstances, a country's central bank modifies its monetary policy, affecting currency exchanges.
The graph below depicts the rise and fall of FDI inflows relative to the movement of BoP in
the preceding section. This clearly demonstrates the connection between corporate and
sovereign risks.
(Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS?
end=2020&locations=VN&start=2016)
TRANSFER RISK
Global transfer pricing policies are substantially identical, as they are frequently based on the same
notions and employ comparable approaches. Clearly, there are slight differences between Vietnam's
regulations and those of other countries, but the underlying principles are identical.
Before Decree 20 and Decree 132 were issued, transfer pricing restrictions in Vietnam were based on the
arm's-length principle. Therefore, the establishment of the substance-over-form notion has the biggest
influence; international investors should keep this in mind when building supply chains.
In accordance with the principle that substance trumps form, tax authorities dismiss the legal forms of
transactions and business agreements and focus on their economic substance.
Risk/Penalties
If tax authorities conclude that a transaction was not priced according to the notion of comparable
transactions, they will adjust the transaction's value and assess tax appropriately. In addition, in
accordance with the substance-over-form principle, expenses incurred for services provided only for the
purpose of providing benefits or values to other affiliates are not deducted from taxable revenue. Tax
avoidance can potentially subject businesses to criminal liability. Furthermore, the tax authorities publish
the data of non-compliant or irregular businesses on their national and provincial websites, severely
damaging their reputation.
Transfer pricing in Vietnam Transfer pricing has emerged as a significant tax issue for multinational
firms in a continuously expanding global economy. Foreign investment has flowed into Vietnam as the
country's economy continues to experience robust growth due to the expansion of its manufacturing and
service sectors. Managing transfer pricing risk is essential in the current corporate environment.
Vietnam's transfer pricing regulations are exhaustive and impose compliance and paperwork
requirements on taxpayers. The Vietnamese government has continued to emphasize transfer pricing's
significance. Organizations must comprehend the effect of Vietnamese transfer pricing legislation on
their risk profile, as well as the local compliance requirements and reporting obligations. As transfer
pricing is a primary focus of the government's risk evaluation and audits programme, the regulator is
currently subjecting taxpayers to regular queries. In addition, cooperative compliance solutions are now
being developed. Traditional solutions are insufficient; proactive transfer pricing governance control is
required.
In light of the recent international emphasis on tax and transfer pricing through the Base Erosion and
Profit Shifting (BEPS) programme of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) and in Vietnam through laws such as Decree 132, related/associated party transactions are
subject to increased scrutiny. To ensure compliance and the execution of appropriate risk mitigation
measures, it is vital that these firms acquire the necessary assistance.
The currency risk rating is BB. The government chooses to exert considerable influence over the
exchange rate. However, this danger is offset by a prolonged current-account surplus, which helps to
maintain significant foreign-exchange reserves and low inflation.
In recent years, the economy has been significantly more open to international trade. This has been the
primary catalyst for growth and structural transformation. This has resulted in a current account surplus
that has persisted for longer and is sustained by a diverse array of exports.
Terrorism and corruption are of great concern.
Terrorism and corruption are the most destructive aspects for any nation. No one desires to reside in a
nation where terrorism and corruption are prevalent. Consequently, people typically protest to halt it.
Repercussions of Terrorism and Corruption on Business Terrorism and corruption have numerous effects
on business. Several of these are detailed below:
A) Economic loss:
Corruption in a nation will always result in an economic loss. From the citizens to the leader, everyone
engages in corruption. Normal individuals do it by not paying taxes and possessing black money, while
leaders do it by withholding a portion of the budget intended for public purposes. Occasionally by storing
illicit funds.
When a person discovers a malicious act and tries to report it, they receive threatening phone calls. This
is a case of terrorism in which someone is apprehended for revealing the criminal action of another.
Note: CPI Index is used as a global ranking of corruption in the world. It assesses the extent to which
academics and businesspeople believe a country's public sector is corrupt.
With a population of approximately 96 million, Vietnam is one of the developing nations. Due to the
international perception of corruption in Vietnam, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Vietnam in 2022
stands at just US$27 billion.
From the Vietnam Terrorism Index, it is evident that the index continues to decline annually. 2018 was
the year with the highest terrorism index, which was 1.522. Then, it gradually declined from 0.68 in 2020
to 0.41 in 2022.
(Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/terrorism-index)