2 Probability Theory (1)

Basic Concepts of Probability

In general, probability is the chance something will happen. Probabilities are expressed as fractions ( 1/6, ½ , 8/9 ) or as
decimals (0.167, 0.500, 0.889) between zero and one. Assigning a probability zero means that something can never happen; a
probability 1 indicates that something will always happen.
(i) A Random experiment
An experiment which produces distinct results even though it is repeated a large number of times under essentially
similar conditions is called a random experiment.
(ii) Sample Space
The set S of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a Sample space. An element in S, is called a
sample point. Consider the experiment of
(a) rolling a die and observe the dots on the top face; S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, n(S) = 6 1 = 6
(b) a coin is tossed S = {H, T} n(S) = 21
(c) a pair of coins is tossed, S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} , n(S) = 22 = 22 = 4
(d) let coin is tossed 3 times then S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}, n(S) = 222 = 23 = 8
(e) a coin is tossed 4 times S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, TTHH, HTTH, THHT, HTHT, THTH,
HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT }, n(S) = 24 = 16
(f) Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process out of a collection of 10
items. Each item is inspected and classified defective, D, or non-defective, N In this case, the sample space is
S = {DDD, DDN, DND, NDD, DNN, NDN, NND, NNN} , n(S) = 222 = 8
(g) Asking for opinion about a new car model. S = {Like, Dislike, Undecided}
(iii) An Event
An event A is a collection of simple events. or, in other words, a subset of the Sample space S. The empty set  is
called the impossible event, and S, the sample space is called the certain or sure event.
(a) A Simple Event
A simple event is the most basic outcome of a random experiment.
An event as a singleton is called a simple event.
(b) Equally Likely Events
Two events A and B are said to be equally likely, when one event is as likely to occur as the other. In other words,
each event should occur in equal number in repeated trials. For example when a fair coin is tossed, the head is as likely to
appear as the tail. (in tossing a single coin A = {H} , B = {T} , S = {H, T} )
(c) Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously. i.e. A  B = 
In rolling , a dice, we have S = {1, 2, 3 , 4 , 5 6} and consider A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {1, 3, 5}
Here AB =  also AB = S, so A and B are mutually exclusive as well as exhuastive
(d) Exhaustive Events
Events are said to be collectively exhaustive, when the union of mutually exclusive events is the entire sample space S.
For instance, event A and Ac form a partition as they are mutually exclusive and their union is the entire sample space.
A  B =  and A  B = S
(e) Complementary Events
The complement of an event A is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of

event A. The complement of A is denoted by A (read “A bar”).
(f) Compound Events (Union and Intersections)
Compound events can often be viewed as a composition of two or more other events.
(i) The union A  B of A and B consists of all points in A or B or both.
The intersection A  B of A and B consists of all points in both A and B.
2. The Probability of an Event (a classical approach)
The probability of event A is defined as
n(A) no. of favourable cases to A
P(A) = n(S) = Total possible cases
This is a classical approach.
2 Probability Theory (2)

If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes
correspond to event A, then the probability of event A is
n
P(A) = N

Other approaches are relative frequency approach and subjective approach.

Examples (1)
Give a collectively exhaustive list of the possible outcomes of tossing two dice. Also give the probability for each of
the totals 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10 and 11 in the rolling of two dice:.
(Bluman Example 4.1)
Examples (2)
Consider the activity when two dice are thrown.
We have the sample space:
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6) ,
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) } P(D/B) = 9/18
Possible sums = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Lets we define certain events;
(1) Event A that same numbers appear P(A) = 6/36 = 1/6
(2) Event B = that sum of the dots is even P(B) = 18/36 = ½ P(B) = 1  P(B) = 1  P(that the sum is odd) = 1 – 18/36
(3) Event C = that the sum of the dots is odd P(C ) = 18/36 = 1/2
(4) Event D = that sum is divisible by 4 P(D) = 9/36 = 1/4
(5) Event E = that the sum is divisible by 3 P(E) = 12/36
(6) Event F that sum is 7 P(F) = 6/36
(7) Event H that sum is 11 P(H) = 2/36
(8) Event K that sum is divisible by 4 or same numbers appear K = D  A = 12/36 = 1/3
DA = {x | either x  D or x  A or x both D and A}
Observe that
P(DA) = P(D) + P(A) – P(DA) = 9/36 + 6/36 – 3/36 = 12/36 = 1/3 (for not mutually exclusive case)
(9) Event G that sum is 7 or sum is 11 G = FH = P(G ) = 8/36
P(FH) = P(F) + P(H) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36 (for mutually exclusive events)
Called Addition Law
When the events are mutually exclusive
Addition law becomes
P(FH) = P(F) + P(H) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36
Similarly, P(DE) = P(D) + P(E)  P(DE) = 9/36 + 12/36  1/36 (verify)
Conditional Probability
P(if the event B occurs first then find the probability of D) = P(D/B) = 9/18 = 1/2 we will discuss later
Exercise 1.
Determine whether these events are mutually exclusive. (Bluman Example 4.15)

a. Roll a die: Get an even number, and get a number less than 3.
b. Roll a die: Get a prime number (2, 3, 5), and get an odd number.
c. Roll a die: Get a number greater than 3, and get a number less than 3.
d. Select a student in your class: The student has blond hair, and the student has blue eyes.
e. Select a student in your college: The student is a sophomore, and the student is a business major.
f. Select any course: It is a calculus course, and it is an English course.
g. Select a registered voter: The voter is a Republican, and the voter is a Democrat.
2 Probability Theory (3)

Examples (3)
A candy dish contains one yellow and two red candies. You close your eyes, choose two candies one at a time from
the dish, and record their colors. What is the probability that (i) both candies are red (ii) one is yellow?
Solution
We are available one yellow and two red candies.
Two of them can be selected in the following number of ways.
Therefore, S = { RR, RY, YR }
1
So P(both red) = 2/3  1/2 = 3 and

2
P(one is Yellow) = P(YR) + P(RY) = 1/3  2/2 + 2/3  1/2 = 1/3 + 1/3 = 3

Note: try this example with the activity of choosing 3 candies. When we are available 5 Red and 2 Yellow
Find the probability that our selection (i) containing 2 red (ii) containing one yellow.
Exercise 2.
Two cards is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability of getting. (Bluman Example 4.7)

a. Both hearts (all are heart)

b. One heart (or exactly one heart)
c. None of the heart
d. At least one is heart {i.e. either one is heart or both are heart this means P(HN) + P(NH) + P(HH) }
e. At most one is heart. ( i.e. P(one heart) + P(no heart) = P(HN) + P(NH) + P(NN) )
Note: sometimes cards are drawn with replacement, it will be mentioned. If it is not mentioned, then it means that the cards
are drawn without replacement
Sol. Case I (with replacement)
P(both heart) = 13/52  13/52
P(one heart) = P(may be first one) + P(second one) = 13/53 39/52 + 39/52  13/52

Special case : when we draw 3 cards and finding the probability of one heart with replacement
P(one heart) = P(may be first) + P(may be second) + P(may be 3rd)
= 13/5239/5239/52 + 39/52  13/52  39/52 + 39/52  39/52  13/52
The case of without replacement
= 13/5239/5138/50 + 39/52  13/51  38/50 + 39/52  38/51  13/50
Sol. Case II (without replacement)
P(both heart) = 13/52  12/51
P(one heart) = P(may be first one) + P(second one) = 13/52  39/51 + 39/52  13/51

Exercise 3.
If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three children are girls.
(Bluman Example 4.6)
3. Axioms of Probability
Probability is a number that is assigned to each member of a collection of events from a random experiment that
satisfies the following properties:
If S is the sample space and A is any event in a random experiment,
(i) 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
(ii) P() = 0 , where  is called impossible event
(iii) P(S) = 1 , where S is called sure event
(iv) For two events A and B, with AB = ,
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
2 Probability Theory (4)

For three events, P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)

Examples (4)
A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is a weekend day.
P(Saturday or Sunday) = P(Saturday) + P(Sunday) = 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7
Examples (5)
(i) Determine the probability of drawing either a three of clubs or a six of diamonds from an
ordinary deck of 52 playing cards? ( Chapter 2“Probability and Statistics” by Schaum’s Outline Series)
(ii) A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that
the card is either an ace, or a face card or a numbered card?
Solution (ii)
P(AFN) = P(A) + P(F) + P(N) = 4/52 + 12/52 + 36/52
(iii) A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that the card is either a
diamond, or a face card or a king?
Solution (i)
P(a three of clubs or a six of diamonds) = P(a three of clubs) + P(a six of diamonds)
Let Event A : a three of clubs and Event B : a six of diamonds, so we are required
1 1 1
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) = 52 + 52 = 26

Solution (iii)
a club, a heart, a spade or a diamond, an ace, a jack, a queen, a king

Club, Heart, Spade and diamond

A means Ace
J means Jack
Q means queen
K means King
P(DFK) = P(D) + P(F) + P(K) – P(DF) – P(FK) – P(DK) + P (DFK))
= 13/52 + 12/52 + 4/52  3/52  4/52 1/52 + 1/52 = 22
P(DFK) = 22/52
(b) P(that the card is with exactly one characteristic out of the three) = 16/52
Examples (6)
a) A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number. If E is the event
that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find P(E).
P(a number less than 4) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 1/6 + 2/6 + 1/6
b) let A be the event that an even number turns up and let B be the event that a number divisible by 3 occurs.
Find P(A ∪ B) and P(A ∩ B). (Walpole 9th Ed Exp. 2.25)
S = {1,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,6}
2 Probability Theory (5)

P(3) = 1/9, P(6) = 2/9 and P(5) = 1/9

Solution (a)
The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. We assign a probability of to each odd number and a probability of 2w to
each even number. Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, we have 9w = 1 or w = 1/9. Hence, probabilities of 1/9 and 2/9
are assigned to each odd and even number, respectively. Therefore,
1 2 1 4
E = {1, 2, 3} and P(E) = 9 + 9 + 9 = 9

Solution (b)
For the events A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {3, 6}, we have
A ∪ B = {2, 3, 4, 6} and A ∩ B = {6}.
By assigning a probability of 1/9 to each odd number and 2/9 to each even number,
we have
2 1 2 2 7 2
P(A ∪ B) = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 9 and P(A ∩ B) = 9

4. Complementation Rule
If the probability of an event or the probability of its complement is known, then the other can be found by
subtracting the probability from 1.

i.e. P(A) = 1  P(A)
The sum of the probabilities of complementary events equals 1. That is

i.e. P(A)+P(A) = 1
from previous example if we need
P(that the sum of the dots is odd) = 1  P(that the sum of the dots is even)

P(C) = 1  P(C) = 1  18/36 = 18/36 = 1/2
Examples (7)
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the world is 1/5 , find the probability that a person
does not live in an industrialized country. (Bluman Example 4.11)
Solution
1 4
P(not living in an industrialized country) = 1  P(living in an industrialized country) = 1 − 5 = 5

Examples (8)
Find the errors in each of the following statements:
(a) The probabilities that an automobile salesperson will sell 0, 1, 2, or 3 cars on any given day in February are,
respectively, 0.19, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.15.
(b) The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.40, and the probability that it will not rain tomorrow is 0.52.
(c) The probabilities that a printer will make 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 or more mistakes in setting a document are,
respectively, 0.19, 0.34, −0.25, 0.43, and 0.29.
(d) On a single draw from a deck of playing cards, the probability of selecting a heart is 1/4, the probability of
selecting a black card is 1/2, and the probability of selecting both a heart and a black card is 1/8.
(Walpole 9th Exercise 2.49)
Examples (9)
A coin is tossed 4 times find the probability to have at least one head.
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, TTHH, HTTH, THHT, HTHT, THTH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT },
When we have 1 head, this may appear in 4C1 , when we have 2 heads to discuss, they may appear in 4C2 = 6, when we
discuss 3 heads to discuss, they are in 4C3 , finally 4 heads may appear in 4C4 possible ways

P(A) = P(at least one head) = 1  P(A) = 1  P(no head) = 1  ½4 = 15/16
Examples (10)
2 Probability Theory (6)

A fair coin is tossed ten times and the up face is recorded after each toss. What is the probability of event
A: {observe at least one head}
Solution
Since we know the probability of the complement of A, we use the relationship
for the complementary events:
 1 1 1023
P(A) = 1 – P(A) = 1  210 = 1 - 1024 = 1024 = 0.999

That is, we are virtually certain of observing at least one head in 10 tosses of the coin.
Examples (11)
There are three alternative roots A, B or C each with probability of being
blocked 1/10, 3/5 and 5/9 respectively. What is the probability that I can get to work?
(the probability that at least one root is open)
The probability of me not being able to get work is the probability of all three
being blocked. So the probability of me being able to get to work is P(A clear or B clear
or C clear)
P(at least one root is open) = 1  P(when all are blocked) = 1 – P(A blocked and B blocked and C blocked)
1 3 5 1 29
= 1 - 10  5  9 = 1 - 30 = 30

S = {BBB, BBN, BNB, NBB, BNN, NBN, NNB, NNN}

Exercise (Kreyszig 10th 24.3)
(1) In rolling 3 fair dice, what is the probability of obtaining a sum not greater than 6?
Sol. Here possible sums are 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, … , 18
There are 216 total possible cases when 3 dice are rolled. Let X denotes the sum; then
Corresponding triplet are:
For X = 3 (1,1,1), therefore P[X=3] = 1/216
For X = 4 (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1,), Therefore P[X=4] = 3/216
For X = 5 (1,2,2), (2,1,2), (2,2,1), (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1,) , therefore P[X = 5] = 6/216
and For X = 6 (2,2,2),(1,2,3),(1,3,2),(2,1,3),(2,3,1),(3,1,2),(3,2,1),(1,1,4),(1,4,1),(4,1,1)
therefore P[X = 6] = 10/216
Hence total required probability = 1/216 + 3/216 + 6/216 + 10/216 = 20/216 = 5/54
(2) What is the probability of obtaining at least one head in tossing six fair coins?
Sol. total possible cases = 26 = 64
Event A that at least one head is obtained
So Ac is the event of obtaining no head
As P(A) + P(Ac) = 1
 P(A) = 1 – P(Ac) = 1 P(no head)
Now Ac = {TTTTTT} that all six outcomes are tails, Therefore P(Ac) = 1/64
Hence P(A) = 1 – 1/64 = 63/64
Alternative example:
4 coins are tossed
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, TTHH, HTHT, THTH, THHT, HTTH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}
P(at least one head) = P(one head) + P(two heads) + P(3 heads) + P(4 heads)
= 4 (1/2) (1/2)3 + 6 (1/2)2 (1/2)2 + 4 (1/2)3 (1/2) + (1/2)4 = 15/16
= 4C1 (1/2) (1/2)3 + 4C2 (1/2)2 (1/2)2 + 4C3 (1/2)3 (1/2) + (1/2)4 =

= 1  P(no head) = 1  P(all tails) = 1  1/16 = 15/16

(3) In rolling two fair dice. What is the probability of obtaining a sum greater than 10
or a sum divisible by 6?
Sol. Two fair dice are rolled, n(S) = 36
Event A that sum is greater than 10 and event B is that sum divisible by 6
n(A) = 3, n(B) = 6 and n(AB) = 1
so P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) = 3/36 + 6/36 – 1/36 = 8/36 = 2/9
(4) If a box contains 10 left handed screws and 20 right handed screws, what is the
probability of obtaining at least one right handed screw in drawing 2 screws (i)
with replacement (ii) without replacement.
2 Probability Theory (7)

(5) Three screws are drawn at random from a lot of 100 screws. 10 of which are defective. Find the probability of the
event that all 3 screws drawn are non defective, assuming that we draw (a) with replacement (b) without
replacement.
Sol. Defective = 10, good = 90 and total = 100
Experiment : 3 are drawn
(i) with replacement
required probability = 90/100 × 90/100 × 90/100
= (0.9)3 = 72.9%
(ii) without replacement
required probability = 90/100 × 89/99 × 88/98 = 72.65%
(6) Three boxes contain five chips each, numbered from 1 to 5 and one chip is drawn from each box. Find the probability
of the event E that the sum of the numbers on the drawn chips is greater than 4.
Sol. Box I = {1,2,3,4,5}, Box II = {1,2,3,4,5} and
Box III = {1,2,3,4,5}
one number is drawn from each box, so total possible drawl
= (5)3 = 125
event E that the sum of the numbers is greater than 4
so Ec = {(1,1,1), (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1)}
therefore P(Ec) = 4/125
 P(E) = 1 – 4/125 = 121/125
(7) A batch of 100 iron rods consists of 25 oversized rods, 25 undersized rods, and 50 rods of the desired length. If two
rods are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of obtaining (a) two rods of the desired length
(b) one of the desired length (c) none of the desired length (d) two undersized rods.
Sol. oversized = 25, undersized = 25, desired length = 50, total = 100
Experiment : two are drawn without replacement
50 49
(a) P(2 are of desired length) = 100  99 = 0.2474
This is the case of without replacement
50 50
(b) P(1 is of desired length) = 2100 99 = 0.505
Actually these are the two either or cases (i) 1st of desired length and 2nd is not of desired
length (ii) 1st is not of desired length and 2nd of desired length
50 49
(c) P(no of desired length) = 100  99 = 0.2474
25 24
(d) P(2 are undersized) = 100  99 = 0.0606
(8) A batch of 100 iron rods consists of 50 oversized rods, 50 undersized rods, and 100 rods of the desired length. If two
rods are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of obtaining (a) two rods of the desired length
(b) exactly one of the desired length (c) none of the desired length.
(7) If a certain kind of tire has a life exceeding 40,000 miles with probability 0.90. What is the probability that a set of
these tires on a car will last longer than 40,000 miles?
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, TTHH, HTHT, THTH, THHT, HTTH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}
(i) P(one tyre will have a life time of more than 40000 miles) = 4 (0.90)(0.10) (0.10) (0.10) ans
(ii) P(two tyres will have a life time of more than 40000 miles) = 4C2 (0.90)  (0.90) (0.10)(0.10)
(iii) P(at least one will have a life time of more than 40000 miles) = 1  p(no tyre having) = 1  P(all 4 not having) =
= 1  (0.10)4
(iv) P(at most one tyres will have a life time of more than 40000 miles) = P(no one having) + P(one is having) =
= (0.10) 4 + 4(0.90)  (0.10)3
(v) P(all the tyres will have a life time) = (0.90) 4

(vI) P(no tyre have a life time more than 40000 miles ) = (0.10)(0.10) (0.10) (0.10) = (0.10)4
Sol. p = 0.95, i.e. the probability of a tire having life exceeding 25000 miles
P(a set of 4) = (0.90)( 0.90)( 0.90)( 0.90) = (0.90)4
(8) If a certain kind of tire has a life exceeding 25000 miles with probability 0.95. What is the probability that at least one
of the tires will last for 25000 miles?
Sol. Probability that a tire has life exceeding 25000 miles = 0.95
Let A be the event that
P(no tire has a life exceeding 25000 miles) = (0.05) 4
therefore P(at least one) = 1  (0.05)4
2 Probability Theory (8)

(11) If we inspect sheets of paper by drawing 3 sheets with replacement from every lot of 100 sheets, what is the
probability of getting 3 clean sheets although 8% of the sheets contain impurities?
Sol. p = 0.92, the probability of a sheet to contain purity; P(3 clean sheets) = (0.92) 3
Additive Law for not Mutually Exclusive Events
The probability of the union of events A and B is the sum of the probabilities of events A and B minus the probability
of the intersection of events A and B, i.e.
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(AB)
Examples (12)
An automobile manufacturer is concerned about a possible recall of its best-selling four-door sedan. If there were a
recall, there is 0.25 probability that a defect is in the brake system, 0.18 in the transmission, 0.17 in the fuel system, and 0.40 in
some other area. What is the probability that the defect is the brakes or the fueling system if the probability of defects in both
systems simultaneously is 0.15?
Solution
Let A be the event that a defect is in the brakes, B be the event that defect is in the transmission and C be the event
that defect is in fuel system.
P(BF) = P(B)+P(F)P(BF) = 0.25 + 0.17  0.15 = 0.27
Exercise 4.
(i) Find the probability that on a single draw from a pack of playing cards we draw a spade or a face card or
both.
(ii) A fair dice is rolled once. You win Rs.5/- if the outcome is either even or divisible by 3. What is the
probability of winning the game?
(iii) A customer enters a food store. The probability that the customer buys (a) bread is 0.60 (b) milk is 0.50 and
(c) both bread and milk is 0.30. What is the probability that the customer would by either bread or milk or
both?
(5) Addition Law for Three Events
The probability rules can be extended to three or more events. For three mutually exclusive events A, B, and C, the
probability that A occurs or B occurs or C occurs is the probability P(A  B  C) defined as:
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
For three events that are not mutually exclusive,
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A  B) − P(A  C) − P(B  C) + P(A  B  C)

Examples (13)
A card is drawn from a deck of ordinary playing cards. What is the probability that it is a diamond, a face card or a king?
Solution
Let A = the card drawn is diamond
B = the card drawn is a face card
and C = the card drawn is a king.
Then we need
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(BC) – P(AC) + P(ABC)
13 12 4
Now P(A) = 52 , P(B) = 52 , P(C) = 52

13 3 3
P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A) = 52  13 = 52

12 4 4
P(BC) = P(B) P(C/B) = 52  12 = 52

13 1 1
P(AC) = P(A) P(C/A) = 52  13 = 52

13 3 1 1
P(ABC) = P(A) P(B/A) P(C/AB) = 52  13  3= 52

Hence we get
2 Probability Theory (9)

13 12 4 3 4 1 1 22
P(ABC) = 52 + 52 + 52 - 52 - 52 - 52 + 52 = 52 = 0.423

Examples (14)
A survey has been taken on methods of computer travel. Each respondent was asked to check BUS, TRAIN or
AUTOMOBILE as a major method of traveling to work. More than one answer was permitted. The results reported were as
follows: BUS 30 people, TRAIN 35 people, AUTOMOBILE 100 people, BUS and TRAIN 15 people, BUS and AUTOMOBILE 15
people, TRAIN and AUTOMOBILE 20 people and all three methods 5 people. How many people completed a survey form.

n(BTA) = ?
n(BTA) = n(B) + n(T) + n(A) – n(BT)  n(BA)  n(TA) + n(BTA)
= 30 + 35 + 100  15  15  20 + 5 = 120
(ii) n(people using exactly one source of travelling ) = ?
Examples (15)
A survey of 500 television watchers produced the following information: 285 watch football games, 195 watch hockey
games, 115 watch basketball games, 45 watch football and basketball games, 70 watch football and hockey games, 50 watch
hockey and basketball games, and 50 do not watch any of the three kinds of the games.
a) How many people in the survey watch all three kinds of games?
b) How many people watch exactly one of the games?
Source:- Chapter 1, Sec. 1.2 Book: “Discrete Mathematical Structures” by Bernard Kolman, Prentice Hall.

Solution (a) n(FHB) = n(F) + n(H) + n(B) – n(FH)  n(FB)  n(HB) + n(FHB)
 n(FHB) = n(FHB)  n(F)  n(H)  n(B) + n(FH) + n(FB) + n(HB)
= 450  285  195  115 + 70 + 45 + 50 = 20
6. Conditional Probability
A
Now if we say that the event B had already taken place and we consider the probability of A. We denote it as P( B ) ,
called the conditional probability of A and is given by
A P(AB)
P(A/B) = P(A|B) = P(B) = P(B)

i.e. Find the probability of A given that the event B occurs first.
OR Find the probability of A whenever the event B occurs first
Or if the event B occurs first , then find the probability of A
A
We write our requirement as P(B) , P(A/B) , or P(A|B)
Simply we read it as the probability of A given B
Activity : 2 dice are rolled
If event B : that the sum is even and Event A : that the sum is divisible by 4
If the event B is performed first, then find the probability of A
Find the probability of event A, if the event B is performed first
Find the probability of the event A given that the event B is performed first
Find the probability that the sum is divisible by 4 given that the sum is even
Find the probability that the sum is divisible by 4 whenever the sum is even
All the statements are equivalent
P(AB) 9/36 9 1
P(A/B) = P(B) = 18/36 = 18 = 2
P(A) = 9/36 = 1/4 which is called the marginal probability of A
Examples (16)
In rolling of two fair dice, let A be the event that the sum of the dots is divisible by 4 and B be the event that the sum
of the dots is even. Find the probability of A given that B occurs first
Solution
Required probability of A is the conditional probability under the condition of B
2 Probability Theory (10)

A P(AB) 9/36 9
i.e. P(A/B) = P(B ) = P(B) = = 18/36 18
P(AB)
P(B/A) = P(A)
Examples (17)
The concept of conditional probability has countless applications in both industrial and biomedical applications.
Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips of a particular type of cloth are being produced. These strips
can be defective in two ways, length and nature of texture. For the case of the latter, the process of identification is very
complicated. It is known from historical information on the process that 10% of strips fail the length test, 5% fail the texture
test, and only 0.8% fail both tests. If a strip is selected randomly from the process and a quick measurement identifies it was
failing the length test, what is the probability that it is texture defective?
Example 2.34 Page 60 Book:- “Probability and Statistics for Engineers” by Walpole 9 th Ed.
Solution
Consider the events: L : length defective, and T : texture defective
0.8
P(L) = 0.10, P(T) = 0.05 , P(T L) = 100 = 0.008

Thus, given that the strip is length defective:, the probability that this strip is texture defective is given by
P(TL) 0.008
P(T / L) = P(L) = 0.1 = 0.08

(iii) If the strip fails texture test, what is the probability that it is failing length
P(TL) 0.008
P(L/T) = P(T) = 0.05 = ?

Thus, the knowledge given by the conditional probability provides considerably more information than merely
knowing P{T).
Examples (18)
A man tosses two fair dice. What is the conditional probability that the sum of two dice will be 7, given that,(i) the
sum is odd,(ii) the sum is greater than 6,(iii) the two dice had the same out come?
Solution
The sample space S for this experiment consists of the following 36 equally likely out comes;
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) }
Let A = {the sum is 7},
B = {the sum is odd}
C = {the sum is greater than 6}, and
D = {the two dice had the same outcomes}.
Then
A = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
B = {(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1),
(4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)},
C = {(1,6), (2,5), (2,6), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (5,2),
(5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)},
D = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)},
AB = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
AC = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
AD = 
3 18 21 6
So, P(A) = 36 , P(B) = 36 , P(C) = 36 , P(D) = 36
2 Probability Theory (11)

6 6
P(AB) =36 , P(AC) = 36 , P(AD) = 0

Hence using the definition of conditional probability, we get

P(AB) 3 36 1
P(A/B) = P(B) = 36 18 = 3

P(AC) 3 36 2
P(A/C) = P(C) = 36  21 = 7

P(AD) 36
P(A/D) = P(D) = 0  3 = 0

7. Multiplication Law for Probability (General Rule)

If A and be any two events defined in a sample space S, then
P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A), provided P(A)  0
= P(B) P(A/B), provided P(B)  0
The conditional probability of B given A has occurred is
P(AB)
P(B/A) = P(A) , provided P(A)  0

by multiplying both sides with P(A), we get

P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A)
This is called the general rule of multiplication for probabilities.
Examples (19)
If we randomly pick two television sets in succession without replacement from a shipment of 240 television sets of
which 15 are defective, what is the probability that they will be both defective?
We are available 15 Defective items + 225 good items = 240
Case (A) without replacement
15 14 15C2  225C0
(i) P(both defective) = 240  239 = 240C
2

225 224 15C0  225C2

(ii) P(none is defective) = 240  239 = 240C
2

(iii) P(one is defective) = P(exactly one is defective) = P(either 1 st is defective) + P(or the 2nd is defective)
1
15C 225C 15 225 225 15
1
= 240C = 240  239 + 240  239
2

(iv) P(2nd is defective) = P(1st not defective and 2nd defective) + P(1st defective and 2nd defective)
225 15 15 14
= 240  239 + 240  239

(v) P(at least one is defective) =

(vi) P(at most one is good) =
Case (B) if the selection is with replacement
15 15
P(both defective ) = 240  240

Note : If we randomly pick up / select / draw / we draw without replacement two from a shipment of 240 television
sets of which 15 are defective, what is the probability that they will be both defective?
15C
2
(i) P(both defective) = 240C
2

(ii) find the probability that 2 are defective if we draw 3 items.

15
C2  225C1
240
C3
(iii) If 5 are selected what is the probability that it contains 2 defective
Solution
2 Probability Theory (12)

Let A denote the event that the first television picked was defective. Let B denote the event that the second television
picked was defective. Then A∩B will denote the event that both televisions picked were defective. Using the conditional
probability, we can calculate
15 14 7
P(AB) = P(A) P(B) = 240 239 = 1912

Exercise 5.
World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a city had homeowner’s insurance (H) with the
company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company. If a resident is selected at random, find
the probability that the resident has both homeowner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide Insurance Company.
Reference :- Example 4.29 Book: “Elementary Statistics” by Bluman
Solution
P(H and A) = P(H  A) = P(H)  P(A/H) = (0.53)  (0.27) = 0.1431
Examples (20)
A box contains 15 items, 4 of which are defective and 11 are good. Two items are selected. What is the probability
that the first is good and second is defective?
Solution
Let A denotes the event that the first item selected is good and B, the event that the
second item is defective. Then we need to calculate the probability P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A)
11
Now P(A) = 15

Given the event A has occurred, there remains 14 items of which 4 are defective. Therefore the probability of
selecting the defective after a good has been selected,
4
i.e. P(A/B) = 14

11 4 44
Hence P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A) = 15  14 = 210 = 0.16

Examples (21)
Two cards are dealt from a pack of ordinary playing cards. Find the probability that the second card dealt is a heart?
Solution
Let H1 represents the event that the first card dealt is a heart, and H2, the event that the
second card dealt is a heart. Then
P(the second card is a heart) = P(the first card is a heart and the second card is a heart)
+ P(the first card is not a heart and the second card is a heart)
_
i.e. P(H2) = P(H1H2) + P(H1H2)
13 12 39 13 1 13 17 1
P(H2) = 52  51 + 52  51 = 17 + 68 = 68 = 4
   
Exercise
A box of fuses contains 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 3 of the fuses are selected at random and removed from
the box in succession without replacement, what is the probability that all three fuses are defective?
9. Independent Events
Events A and B are independent if the occurrence of B does not alter the probability that A has occurred, i.e., events A
and B are independent if
P(A/B) = P(A)
When events A and B are independent it will also be true that
P(B/A) = P(B)
Events that are not independent are said to be dependent.
Multiplication Law
P(AB) = P(A)  P(B/A)
P(AB) = P(B)  P(A/B)
2 Probability Theory (13)

Multiplication Law Independent Events

Frequently the nature of an experiment suggests that two events A and B should be assumed independent. This is the
case, for example, if a manufacturer receives a circuit board from each of two different suppliers, each board is tested on arrival,
and A¼{first is defective} and B¼{second is defective}. If P(A) = 0.1, it should also be the case that P(A|B)¼.1; knowing the
condition of the second board shouldn’t provide information about the condition of the first. So we compute P(A  B) when the
events are independent as
P(AB) = P(A)  P(B)
Examples (22) (application problem)
Two natural events can result in the failure of a dam in an earthquake-prone area. Firstly, a very high flood, exceeding
the design capability of its spillway, say, event A, may destroy it. Secondly, a destructive earthquake can cause a structural
collapse, say, event B. Hydrological and seismological consultants estimate that the probability measures characterizing flood
exceedance and earthquake occurrence on a yearly basis are P[A] = 0.02 and P[B] = 0.01, respectively. The occurrence of one or
both events can result in the failure of the dam. If the two events are statistically independent, then the risk of failure in a year
is
P[A  B] = P[A] + P[B]  P[AB] = P[A] + P[B]  P[A] P[B] = 0.02 + 0.01 − 0.02  0.01 = 0.0298.
Examples (23)
Let A be the event a family has at most one boy
And B be the event that a family has children of both sex
(i) If a family is known to have 3 children , then A and B are independent
(ii) If a family is known to have 4 children , then A and B are dependent
Solution (i)
S = { ggg, ggb, gbg, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg, bbb }
Event A = { ggg, ggb, gbg, bgg }, Event B = { ggb, gbg, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg } , AB = { ggb, gbg, bgg }
P(A) = 4/8, P(B) = 6/8 and P(AB) = 3/8
P(AB) 3/8
P(A/B) = P(B) = 6/8 = ½
P(AB) 3/8
P(B/A) = P(A) = 4/8 = ¾
As P(A/B) = P(A) = ½
Also P(B/A) = P(B) = ¾
Hence the events are independent
Part (ii)
Check part (Ii) yourself as an exercise
Examples (24)
Consider an experiment of tossing a fair coin twice and recording the up face on each toss. The following events are
defined:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
A: {first toss is a head}
B: {second toss is a head}
Does knowing that event A has occurred affect the probability that B will occur?
Solution
Intuitively the answer should be no, since what occurs on the first toss should in no way affect what occurs on the
second toss. The sample space for this experiment is:
S = {HH, TH, HT, TT} and A = { HH, HT}, B = { HH, TH}
Each of these simple events has a probability of ¼. Thus,
P(B) = P(HH) + P(TH) = ¼ + ¼ = ½
and P(A) = P(HH) + P(HT) = ¼ + ¼ = ½
Now, what is P(B/A)?
P(AB) P(HH) 1/4 1
P(B/A) = P(A) = P(A) = 1/2 = 2 = P(B)

We can now see that P(B) = ½. Knowing that the first resulted in a head does not affect the probability that the
second toss will be a head. Hence the two events A and B are independent.
2 Probability Theory (14)

Examples (25)
Consider the experiment of tossing a fair die and define the following events
A = {observe an even number}
B = {observe a number less than or equal to 4}
Are events A and B are independent?
Solution
We first calculate
P(A)= P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = ½
P(B)= P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 4/6 = 2/3
P(AB) = P(2) + P(4) = 2/6 = 1/3
Now assume that B has occurred, the conditional probability of A given B is
(AB) 1/3
P(A/B) = P(B) = 2/3 = ½ = P(A)

Therefore the events A and B are independent.

Note that if we calculate the conditional probability of B given A, our conclusion is the same:
(AB) 1/3
P(B/A) = P(A) = 1/2 = 2/3 = P(B)

Examples (26)
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is
P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D ∩A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane (a) arrives
on time, given that it departed on time, and (b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time. (Walpole 9th Example 2.34, Page 63)
Solution
P(DA) 0.78
P(flight arrives on time, given that it departed on time) = P(A/D) = P(D) = 0.83 = 0.94

P(DA) 0.78
P(flight departed on time, given that it arrived on time) = P(D/A) = P(A) = 0.82 = 0.95
Reference: “Theory of probability and Statistics” by Sher Muhammad Ch and Shehzad Ahmad.

Examples (27)
It is known that 30% of a certain company’s washing machines require service while under warranty, whereas only
10% of its dryers need such service. If someone purchases both a washer and a dryer made by this company, what is the
probability that both machines need warranty service? What is the probability that neither machine needs service?
Solution
(i) P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B) = 0.30  0.10 = 0.03
P(AB) 0.03
P(A/B) = P(B) = 0.10 = 0.30 = P(A)

P(AB) 0.03
P(B/A) = P(A) = 0.30 = 0.10 = P(B)

Hence A and B are independent

(ii) First we calculate P[AB] = P[A] + P[B]  P[AB] = 0.30 + 0.10  0.03 = 0.37
P(Ac  Bc) = P[(AB)c] = 1  (AB) = 1  0.37 = 0.63
We can also calculate this directly by multiplying the respective probabilities of the complements.
P(Ac  Bc) = P(Ac)  P(Bc) = 0.70  0.90 = 0.63
Examples (28)
_ _
Given P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.40, P(AB) = 0.24, find P(A/B), P(AB), P(A/B), P(B/A), P(B). What is the relation between A and B?
Solution
Given P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.40, and P(AB) = 0.24. Then
2 Probability Theory (15)

P(AB) 0.24
P(A/B) = P(B) = 0.40 = 0.60

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) = 0.60 + 0.40 – 2024 = 0.76

_ P(AB
_ ) P(A) - P(AB) 0.60 - 0.24 0.36 _
P(A/B) = _ = 1 - P(B) = 1 - 0.4 0.60 = 0.60 because AB = A  AB
P(B)
P(BA) 0.24
P(B/A) = P(A) = 0.60 = 0.40

_
P(B) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – 0.40 = 0.60
The event A and B are independent as
P(A/B) = 0.60 = P(A)
P(B/A) = 0.40 = P(B)
and P(AB) = 0.24 = (0.60) (0.40) = P(A) P(B)

Examples (29)
Let A and B be two events associated with an experiment. Suppose that
P(A) = 0.5 and P(AB) = 0.6. Find P(B) if
(i) A and B mutually exclusive?
(ii) A and B independent?
(iii) P(A/B) = 0.4
Solution
when A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
i.e. 0.60 = 0.50 + P(B)
 P(B) = 0.10
(ii) When A and B are independent, we have
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A) P(B) (because P(AB) = P(A) P(B) )
= P(A) + P(B) [1 – P(A)]
or 0.60 = 0.50 + P(B) [1 – 0.50]
or 0.10 = 0.5 P(B)
or P(B) = 0.20
P(AB) P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
(iii) P(A/B) = P(B) = P(B) because P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(AB)

0.50 + P(B) - 0.60

or 0.40 = P(B)
or 0.40P(B) = P(B) – 0.10
or 0.10 = 0.60 P(B)
 P(B) = 1/6 = 0.17
Examples (30)
In a study involving a manufacturing process, the probability was 0.10 that a part tested was defective and a
probability that a part was produced on machine A was 0.30. Given that a part was produced on machine A, there is 0.15
probability that it is defective.
(a) What is the probability that a part tested is both defective and produced by machine A?
(b) If a part is found to be defective, what is the probability that it came from machine A?
(c) Is finding a defective part independent of its being produced on machine A? Explain.
(d) What is the probability of the part being either defective or produced by machine A?
2 Probability Theory (16)

(e) Are the events “a defective part” and “produced by machine A” mutually exclusive events? Explain.
Ref.: “Statistics for Management” by R I Levin and D S Rubin
Hints:
Define the events; D: a part tested is defective, E: a part is produced by machine A
Given information: P(D) = 0.10, P(E) = 0.30, P(D/E) = 0.15
Find P(DE), P(E/D). Check P(D/E) = P(D) and P(E/D) = P(E). Also check P(DE)
For mutually exclusive, check P(DE) = 0

Bayes Theorem and Application

Bayes’ rule demonstrates one way that probability can be used to make statistical inferences while traditional
methods of statistical inference use probability in a slightly different way.
Discussion 1
Let we are available two boxed; Box A containing 3 red and 5 black balls and Box B containing 4 red and 6 black balls.
We select a box and draw a ball from there.
(i) What is the probability that it is red. A ball is drawn
(ii) If the ball drawn is red, what is the probability that it is coming from box A (or box A wad selected )

Discussion 2
Bayes method can be applied when sample information E may have been produced by any one of k mutually exclusive
states of nature (or population), A1 ,A2, … ,Ak.
Section A Section B Section C Section D
Boys 45 boys 40 boys 30 boys 50
Girls 5 girls 8 girls 10 girls 12
P(G) = ¼  5/50 + ¼  8/48 + ¼  10/40 + ¼  12/62
called the law of total probability
Or Law of Elimination
Activity : a student is selected from the class
(a) Find the probability that this student is a girl
(b) If the selected student is a girl, what is the probability that she is from section A
P(G) = ¼  5/50 + ¼  8/48 + ¼  10/40 + ¼  12/62 called the law of total probability
= P(A)  P(G/A) + P(B)  P(G/B) + P(C)  P(G/C) + P(D)  P(G/D) Or Law of Elimination
P(G) = P(AG) + P(BG) + P(CG) + P(DG)
Actually G = (AG)  (BG)  (CG)  (DG)
(i) If the selected student is a girl, what is the probability that she is from section A
P(AG) ¼  5/50
P(A/G) = P(G) = ¼  5/50 + ¼  8/48 + ¼  10/40 + ¼  12/62
i.e. probability of section A whenever/ given that / if a girl is selected
P(D/G) = Probability of section D if the selected student is a girl
Examples (31)
A construction company employs three sales engineers. Engineer 1, 2 and 3 estimate the cost of 30%, 20% and 50%
respectively, of all jobs bid by the company. For j = 1, 2, 3, define Aj to be the event that a cost is estimated by Engineer j and
define E to be the event that a serious error is made in estimating the cost. The following probabilities are known to describe
the error rates of the engineers:
P(E/A1) = 1% = 0.01 P(A1) = 30% = 0.30
P(E/A2) = 3% = 0.03 P(A2) = 20% = 0.20
P(E/A3) = 2% = 0.02 P(A3) = 50% = 0.50
E = (A1E)  (A2E )  (A3 E)
P(E) = P[(A1E)  (A2E )  (A3 E)]
= P(A1E) + P(A2E ) + P(A3 E)
P( E) = P(A1)  P(E/A1) + P(A2)  P(E/A2) + P(A3)  P(E/A3)
2 Probability Theory (17)

= 0.30  0.01 + 0.20  0.03 + 0.50  0.20

(ii) if a serious error is made, what is the probability that it is done by engineer 1
P(A1 E) 0.30  0.01
P(A1 /E) = P(E) = 0.30  0.01 + 0.20  0.03 + 0.50  0.20) =

Remarks
If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating the job costs, which engineer was responsible? (Of course, we
cannot answer this question with certainty, but statisticians who favor Bayesian logic would employ for making this inference)
Bayes method can be applied when sample information E may have been produced by any one of k mutually
exclusive states of nature (or population), A1 ,A2, … ,Ak.
Bayes’ rule demonstrates one way that probability can be used to make statistical inferences while traditional
methods of statistical inference use probability in a slightly different way. Now we state Bayes’ theorem.
Baye’s Theorem
Statement
If the events A1, A2, … , Ak form a partition of a sample space S, that is, the events Ai are mutually exclusive and their
union is S, and if B is any other event of S such that it can occur only if one of the Ai occurs, then for any i,
P(Aj) P(B/Aj)
P(Aj/B) = j = 1, 2, 3, … , k.
 P(Aj) P(B/Aj)
Proof
By the multiplication law of probabilities,
we have
P(BAi) = P(B) P(Ai/B)
= P(Ai) P(B/Ai)
Equating the equivalent relation of P(BAi) and solving for P(Ai/B),
we get
P(Aj) P(B/Aj)
P(Aj/B) = P(B) ________(1)

We may write the event B as

B = SB
= (A1A2 … Ak) B
= (A1B)(A2B) … (AkB)
where the events (AiB) are also mutually exclusive. Therefore
P(B) = P(A1B) + P(A2B) + … + P(AkB)
Using the multiplicative law of probabilities, we may express each term P(AiB) as P(Ai) P(B/Ai). Then
P(B) = P(A1)P(B/A1) + P(A2)P(B/A2) + … + P(Ak)P(B/Ak) ______ (2)
k
=  P(Ai)P(B/Ai)
i =1
Replacing P(B) in (1), we obtain
P(Aj) P(B/Aj)
P(Aj/B) = k
 P(Ai)P(B/Ai)
i =1
Examples (32)
Three urns of the same appearance have the following proportions of white and black balls:
Urn A: 1 white, 2 black balls.
Urn B: 2 white, 1 black ball.
Urn C: 2 white, 2 black balls.
One of the urns is selected and a ball is drawn from it.
(i) what is the probability that it is white.
(ii) What is the probability that urn C was chosen if the ball drawn is white?
2 Probability Theory (18)

1 1 1 2 1 2
P(W) = 3  3 + 3  3 + 3  4

= P(A)  P(W/A) + P(B)  P(W/B) + P(C)  P(W/C)

= P(AW) + P(BW) + P(CW)
W = (AW)  (BW)  (CW)

P(CW)
P(C/W) = P(W)

P(CW)
=
P(A)  P(W/A) + P(B)  P(W/B) + P(C)  P(W/C)
P(C)  P(W/C)
=
P(A)  P(W/A) + P(B)  P(W/B) + P(C)  P(W/C)
1 2
3 4
= 1 1 1 2 1 2
33 + 3  3 + 3 4

Solution:
The probability of selecting an Urn is 1/3.
1
i.e. P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = 3

Let E be the event that ball selected is white. Then

1 2 2
P(E/A) = 3, P(E/B) = 3 and P(E/C) = 4

By Bayes’ Theorem, we have

P(C) P(E/C)
P(C/E) = P(A) P(E/A) + P(B) P(E/B) + P(C) P(E/C)

1 2 2 2
3.4 12 12 1
= 1 1 1 2 1 2= = =
1 2 1 1 3
3.3+3.3+3.4 9+9+6 2

Examples (33)
1
There are three coins, identical in appearance, one of which is ideal and the other two biased with probabilities 3 and
2
3 respectively for a head. One coin is taken at random and tossed twice. If head appears both the times, what is the probability
that the ideal coin was tossed?
Solution
Let A1 denotes the event that the ideal coin is selected.
A2 denotes the event that the 2nd coin is selected.
A3 denotes the event that the 3rd coin is selected.
1
Then P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = 3

Again, let E denote the event that head appears both the times when the coin is tossed twice. Then P(E/A1) =
1 1 1
2.2=4
1 1 1
P(E/A2) = 3 . 3 = 9 and

2 2 4
P(E/A3) = 3 . 3 = 9
2 Probability Theory (19)

Hence be Bayes’ theorem, the desired probability is

P(Aj) P(E/Aj)
P(Aj/E) =  P(A ) P(E/A ) j = 1, 2, 3
j j

1 1
3.4 1/12 1 108 9
= = 29/108 = 12  29 = 29
1 1 1 1 1 4
3.4+3.9+3.9

Exercises
(1) In a certain college, 4% of the men and 1% of the women are taller than 6 feet. Further more, 60% of the
students are the women. Now if a student is selected at random and is taller than 6 feet, what is the
probability that the student is a woman?
(2) Three cooks A, B and C, bake a special kind of cake, and with respective probabilities 0.02, 0.03, and 0.05 it
fails to rise. In the restaurant where they work, A bakes 50 % of these cakes, B 30 % and C 20 %. What
proportion of ‘failures’ does A cause?
(3) The stock of a warehouse consists of boxes of high, medium and low quality light bulbs in respective
proportions: 1 : 2 : 2. The probability of bulbs of three types being unsatisfactory is 0.0, 0.1 and 0.2
respectively. If a box is chosen at random and two bulb in it are tested and found to be satisfactory, what is
the probability that it contains bulbs (1) of high quality, (2) of medium quality, (3) of low quality?
Examples (34)
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It
is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now,
suppose that a finished product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is defective?
Example 4.41 Page 75 Book:- “Probability and Statistics for Engineers” by Walpole

Exercise 6.
A paint-store chain produces and sells latex and semigloss paint. Based on long-range sales, the probability that a
customer will purchase latex paint is 0.75. Of those that purchase latex paint, 60% also purchase rollers. But only 30% of
semigloss paint buyers purchase rollers. A randomly selected buyer purchases a roller and a can of paint. What is the
probability that the paint is latex? (Walpole 9th Ed Exercise 2.101)

Example 2.23 and Example 2.24