Teknik Akerson
Teknik Akerson
Teknik Akerson
Introduction
In this chapter we move from the stable income, all-cash world depicted in the previous chapter, to the
reality that property is typically purchased with financing, creating debt leverage. Our focus is the mortgage-
equity or M-E technique. This valuation technique is founded on the premise that the overall rate should
reflect the importance of separate yields attributable to the equity position and to the debt position.
The M-E technique is not as commonly used as capitalization or discounted cash flow in everyday real estate
practice. However, the M-E technique is helpful in certain situations to:
This chapter begins with some history on the evolution of the M-E method. Early valuation methods did not
consider the impact of mortgage financing. To explore this impact, economists in the 1950s developed new
valuation techniques, the first of which was Band of Investment or BOI. Roughly speaking, BOI can be
considered a forerunner to the mortgage-equity method, so in order to better understand M-E, it is useful to
have a quick primer on its BOI predecessor.
The goal of BOI is to determine an overall capitalization rate by building up the rate from the key factors
that investors consider when making an investment decision. These factors include:
1
Appraisal Institute of Canada. 2010. The Appraisal of Real Estate. Third Canadian Edition. UBC Real Estate Division: P. 22.6-7.
9.1
Chapter 9
Ro = (L/V) i + ER where
The BOI formula has continued to evolve and is now commonly expressed as follows:
The key argument for using the BOI method is that it is market-based
Band of Investment Formula since the inputs can be extracted from the market or the behaviour of
The overall rate is the typical investors. For example, there are typical norms for debt-to-value
blended proportion of the or price ratio associated with certain property types. Well-established
mortgage constant and the
equity capitalization rate.
office properties with a good leasing history may achieve a debt-to-price
ratio of up to 75%, while hotels, with much higher risk, may only
Ro = MRm + ERe achieve a 50% debt-to-price ratio. While these ratios constantly change
as risk parameters change in the market, the relationship between one
property type and another tends to be somewhat consistent.
In the post-WWII era, or pre-computer days of real estate appraisal, an economist, L. W. Ellwood, 2
produced a series of tables that provided short-cuts for intensive manual calculations required for the BOI
method. C. Akerson 3 offered further simplification of the sophisticated calculations required, evolving
towards the mortgage-equity concept that is the main focus in this chapter.
Mortgage-equity capitalization, like all other valuation methods, offers both benefits and pitfalls. On the plus
side, mortgage-equity allows appraisers to either synthesize an overall rate, or analyze components of
property value (e.g., financial, physical, legal) through residual techniques. The M-E method also provides
a mechanism for dealing with property risk quantification. On the negative side, the M-E method in its basic
form doesn’t account for variation in annual cash flow and the concept of reversion of the investment. M-E
is also conceptually difficult to understand for both appraisers and clients. Ellwood and Akerson’s relative
improvements to mathematical complexity in the pre-computer era are now all but erased by the power of
computers. Perhaps for these reasons, the mortgage-equity method has lost much of its prominence in the
appraisal world.
Nevertheless, we will offer a brief coverage of these methods in this chapter. First, understanding the past is
important to fully understanding the present and the future. Second, there are some situations today where
M-E methods can be applied effectively, and practitioners must have at least a familiarity with these
methods, if not a working knowledge.
2
L. W. Ellwood, Ellwood Tables for Real Estate Appraising and Financing, American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, 1957 (Chicago).
3
Akerson, C. B. “Ellwood Without Algebra”. The Appraisal Journal. Vol. 38, July 1970, p. 327.
9.2
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
This chapter is broken down into two parts. The first part will examine mortgage-equity capitalization – its
tradition and potential application through discounted cash flow analysis. The second part deals with the
application of residual techniques to determine one of the many component values into which property may
need to be divided (e.g., financial, physical, legal). Keep in mind that the mortgage-equity method is only
one of the concepts that may be applied in segregating elements of value.
Most of the material covered in this chapter could (and should) be linked directly with the content of
previous chapters since we are using, simultaneously, the discounted cash flow and the capitalization of
income concepts of value. The difference is that, in this chapter, we are discounting before-tax cash flows
and we are using a composite-adjusted rate of capitalization which accounts for financing conditions,
property appreciation or depreciation, and annual cash flows.
Before examining the mortgage-equity approach in detail, we will review two basic examples of the equity
and mortgage residual techniques.
The following example illustrates the basic application of the equity residual method. Deducting the
annual debt service from the net operating income results in the residual income attributed to the
equity. This residual equity income can be converted to an indication of the equity value by applying
the equity capitalization rate.
Example derived from The Appraisal of Real Estate, 3rd Cdn. Ed., Ch. 22.
9.3
Chapter 9
The following example illustrates the basic application of the mortgage residual method. Deducting
the annual return on equity from the net operating income results in the residual income attributed to
the mortgage. This residual mortgage income can be converted to an indication of the equity value
by applying the mortgage capitalization rate (the mortgage constant).
Example derived from The Appraisal of Real Estate, 3rd Cdn. Ed., Ch. 22
Background
L.W. Ellwood, an innovative chief appraiser of the New York Life Insurance Company, introduced an
algebraic formula for determining capitalization rates in 1957 that has had considerable influence on the
appraisal profession. Ellwood‘s approach represented an important addition to prevailing financial theory.
The basis of Ellwood‘s methodology was to apply adjustments to overall capitalization rates to account for
investor’s equity and debt positions. As noted earlier, he is perhaps best known for developing the financial
factors required for analyzing properties with stable or stabilized income streams.
Prior to Ellwood‘s theories on financing adjustments and his Ellwood tables, 4 appraisal theory and practice
was based on a very simple premise: all real estate transactions were assumed to have occurred on a cash
basis. The economic concepts of return on capital and return of capital did not yet play a role in appraisal
thinking. The only opportunities to identify separate components of value was limited to land, buildings, or
natural resources, or legal interests, such as leases. Although the basic analytical framework for
mortgage-equity analysis had existed for several decades before Ellwood published his tables, its use was
limited to applications by financial investors, primarily in working with financial instruments. Increased
inflation in the post-Second World War period and commoditization of more highly leveraged investments
(including real estate) demanded a change in appraisal thinking.
The impact of financial leverage – separating an investment into its financial components, or mortgage and
equity positions – was noted in Chapter 1. This separation reflects investor behaviour in the marketplace. As
Kinnard states, “the most probable purchaser-investor is presumed to seek to maximize or optimize his cash
position: both income flows and cash equity”. 5 In other words, “why tie up my money when I can use your
cash!”
Ellwood made clear how the equity investor in real estate was motivated by opportunities for financial
leverage, and how those opportunities presented greater risk to that same equity investor. That is, just as the
investor sought to maximize the benefits of positive financial leverage, they also risked accelerated losses
due to higher risk and less certain returns.
4
Ellwood, L.W. 1957. Ellwood Tables for Real Estate Appraising and Financing, first edition. Ellwood L.W., Ridgewood, N.J.
5
Kinnard, W.N., Jr. 1971. Income Property Valuation. Lexington, Massachusetts. Heath Lexington Books. Page 256.
9.4
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
The next sections of this chapter outline the basic premise of the mortgage-equity method and its application
in a series of techniques.
Mortgage-equity capitalization presumes that mortgage terms and equity yields influence the overall rate. As
Akerson explains, “the overall rate is the fraction of the total investment that must be collected each year, on
the average, to service the debt (principal as well as interest payments), yield the required benefits (cash
flow and/or equity build-up), and compensate for depreciation or appreciation”. 6
Thus, mortgage-equity is a band of investment approach whereby the overall rate is calculated as the sum of
capitalization rates for the mortgage component and the equity investment component – adjusted for changes
in the equity position.
In the Appraisal of Real Estate, 3rd Canadian edition, these factors are defined as follows.
J = an income stabilization factor used to convert an income stream changing on a curvilinear basis
into its level equivalent.
K = an income stabilization factor used to convert an income stream changing at a constant ratio
into its stable or level equivalent.
The “J” factor addresses the accelerating or decelerating income changes based on compounding or
discounting, while the “K” factor deals with the straight line growth premise.
The difficulty with both of these adjustments is the complexity they add to a mortgage-equity analysis.
Mortgage-equity formulae are much more difficult to grasp than the intuitive and straightforward discounted
cash-flow (DCF) methods. Advantages of DCF over Ellwood include:
6
Akerson, C.B. 2000. Capitalization Theory and Techniques. Second Edition. Chicago, Illinois. Appraisal Institute.
9.5
Chapter 9
• a more direct and immediate connection between changes in the periodic income stream and the
value of the asset versus the indirect impact of mortgage-equity adjustments on the overall rate; and
• greater accuracy when dealing with predictable annual variation in the net income as a result of
lease set-ups and re-leasing.
However, for illustration purposes, and for the sake of comprehensiveness, we will now examine the basic
and more advanced application of mortgage-equity techniques.
Traditional mortgage-equity techniques involve converting income into value estimates, typically through
direct capitalization. Both Ellwood‘s algebraic formula and Akerson’s modified band of investment
contemplate an overall rate comprising two components:
$ A basic capitalization rate that does not reflect changes in equity position; and
$ Adjustments to the basic overall rate for changes in equity position due to periodic mortgage
paydown and property appreciation/depreciation.
As mentioned earlier, Ellwood‘s pre-computed tables and his mortgage-equity capitalization rate were a
practical breakthrough in the pre-computer and pre-calculator days. However, requirements for sophisticated
calculations and the advent of computer spreadsheet analytical tools have made the technique less appealing
today. Appendix 9.1 at the end of this chapter briefly outlines Elwood’s technique.
In modern markets that are impacted by a host of factors, both methods might be criticized as rather
inflexible, pre-tax present value methods. In the pre-computer era, the Ellwood system (and its Akerson
version) enabled practitioners to conduct sophisticated analyses. As we shall see in the following sections,
computers can now easily provide similar results and deal with a variety of cash flows and financing
packages. It should be noted that Ellwood and Akerson formulas and more modern DCF approaches are all
based on similar assumptions, require similar information, and produce the same results.
In previous chapters we have discussed the “slicing of the pie” analogy and concluded that the concept of
market value can be analyzed in terms of:
9.6
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
$ the asset’s capital structure: the relative shares of debt and equity financing used in the acquisition
and holding of real property
n
V=∑
NOIt REVn
t
+ n
Equation 9.1
t =1 (1 + ka ) (1 + ka )
In the last identity, ka is the internal rate of return on the full value of the investment.
Furthermore, since we also know how to allocate the periodic net operating income flows and the residual
flows between debt and equity, we can proceed with our “financial split” based on the example described in
Table 9.1 (The Dixsept Building).
Table 9.1
The Dixsept Building
9.7
Chapter 9
D=
PMT1 + PMT 2 + ... + PMT n + OSBn Equation 9.2
(1 + kd )1 (1 + k d )2 (1 + k d )n (1 + k d )n
where
D = PMT H aÚn,kdá +
OSBn Equation 9.3
(1 + k d )n
The value of the mortgage contract (to the Mortgagee) is the present value of the flow of payments and of
the outstanding balance if the loan is not fully amortized. The discount rate to be used here is kd, the
mortgage rate. The mortgage rate is the cost of capital for the mortgagor and the return on the mortgagee’s
capital, i.e., the internal rate of return to the lender on this loan.
⎡ $29,935.62 ⎤
D = [$4,950.39 H 4.4873215] + ⎢ ⎥
⎣ 3.0590229 ⎦
D = $22,213.99 + $9,786.01
D = $32,000.00
The calculation of the annuity term, a Ú8, 0.15á or the present value of $1 per year for 8 years at 15%, is
illustrated in Appendix 9.3 at the end of this chapter.
Let E represent the value of the equity portion (before income tax). This can be written:
E=
BTCF1 + BTCF2 + ... + BTCFn + BTER n Equation 9.4
(1 + k e )1 (1 + ke )2 (1 + k e )n (1 + k e )n
9.8
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
As before, we can simplify the previous identity since we deal here with constant before-tax cash flows:
E = BTCF H aÚn,keá +
BTER n
(1 + k e )n
In our example,
( − n)
E = (NOI B PMT) H aÚ8, 0.18á + REV n OSB 8
(1+ 0.18)
($44,000 − $29,935.62)
E = ($6,000 B $4,950.39) H 4.0775658 +
3.7588592
E = $4,279.85 + $3,741.66
Now we can put this together again and write, once more, the full equation of market value as:
V=
NOI1 + NOI2 + ... + REV n
(1 + k a )1 (1 + k a )2 (1 + k a )n
V = NOI aÚn,kaá +
REV n
(1 + k a )n
Here ka is the internal overall rate of return, i.e., the rate of return which satisfies the above equation for the
total value.
Although this may appear to be some form of pedagogical overkill, it should be emphasized that the splitting
process can be described as follows:
7
Here, as in all further computations, the results are approximate because of rounding errors. The readers should understand that any “real-
life” appraisal situation numbers and coefficients may not be as accurate. The degree of precision for the rates and adjustment factors
described in this chapter is required to prove the theoretical validity of the formulae. This accuracy should not lull the reader into believing
that he or she deals with exact sciences. Appraisal is not physics and fourth-digit precision numbers should not be taken too seriously.
9.9
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1
Splitting the Value of the Dixsept Building
V = $40,000
E = $8,000 D = $32,000
Table 9.2
The DCF Mortgage-Equity Identities
Thus far, the analysis may have seemed to be quite tautological since we started from the value
(V=$40,000) to reconstruct the same market value (V). But we can show now that the discounted cash flow
mortgage-equity method is in fact a valuation instrument (i.e., we can find V directly) as long as the debt-to-
value ratio (D/V) is either known or simply assumed. When, as in a typical appraisal context, Debt (D) and
Value (V) are unknown, we can still transform the Value identity as shown below.
1. V = D + E
but
9.10
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
Therefore,
and
D
5. PMT =
a a m, k d b
Therefore,
⎡⎛ D ⎞ ⎤
6. E = ⎢⎜ NOI -
⎜ ⎟⎟ × a an, k e b ⎥ + [BTER(1 + ke)-n]
⎢⎣⎝ a a kd
m, b⎠ ⎥⎦
and we know
7. BTER = Vn ! (%OSBn H D)
Therefore,
⎡⎛ D ⎞ ⎤
8. E = ⎢⎜ NOI - ⎟ × a an, k e b⎥ + [(Vn B %OSBn H D)(1 + ke)-n]
⎢⎣⎜⎝ a a m, k d b ⎟⎠ ⎥⎦
Finally, since we do not always know the amount of debt, we can substitute the loan/value ratio and
property value for D.
9. D = L/V H V
Therefore
⎡⎛ L/ V× V ⎞ ⎤
10. E = ⎢⎜ NOI - ⎟ × a an, k e b⎥ + (Vn B %OSB H L/V H V)(1 + ke)-n
⎢⎣⎜⎝ a a m, k d b ⎟⎠ ⎥⎦
Note that the equity value (E) in step 10 is expressed with only one unknown (V) and can be solved.
8
Calculation steps for certain parts of these equations can be found in Appendix 9.2.
9.11
Chapter 9
Table 9.3
The Swift Building
V = D+E
⎡⎛ L/ V × V ⎞ ⎤
V = (L/V H V) + ⎢⎜ NOI − ⎟ × a an, k e b⎥ + (Vn B %OSB H L/V H V)(1 + ke)-n
⎢⎣⎜⎝ a a m, k d b ⎟⎠ ⎥⎦
V = .8(V) + ⎡⎣$6, 000 − .8(V) × 1 / a a 25,.15 b⎤⎦ × a a8,.18 b + ⎡⎣[1.1(V) − .8(V) × %OSB n ] / (1+.18) 8 ⎤⎦
V = 0.3888(V) + $24,468
V ! 0.3888(V) = $24,468
.6112(V) = $24,468
$24, 468
V = = $40,032.72, say, $40,000
0.6112
9
The terms loan to value ratio (L/V) and debt to value (D/V) ratio are used interchangeably throughout this chapter.
9.12
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
Thus the value identity can be written in terms of different factors and percentages using the present value
concept. The value of the property is the sum of the present value of the debt and the present value of the
equity. All we need to know is the stream of the net operating income, the capital structure (D/V), and the
reversion hypothesis (appreciation or depreciation of the property). This technique is direct and very similar
to the general approach developed in Chapter 8.
Alternative techniques of valuation are less direct, i.e., find a capitalization rate which reflects the capital
structure and reversion hypothesis, and then capitalize the stream of net operating income. This alternative
path is considered in Appendix 9.3.
Application of either traditional or computerized DCF mortgage-equity methods will turn our seemingly
naive exercise of splitting the value “financially” into a fairly intimidating set of formulae. (See the
summary in Table 9.4, which also summarizes the approaches covered in Appendix 9.3.)
Contrasted to traditional mortgage-equity techniques, the discounted cash flow approach is intuitively more
appealing and computerized calculations reduce the level of intimidation and facilitate application.
Furthermore, the DCF mortgage-equity valuation formula presents the distinct advantage of being
structurally analogous to the DCF equity valuation model, which was previously described as a cornerstone
in real estate analysis.
Table 9.4
Summary of Mortgage-Equity Formulae
L/V H V H %OSBn]/(1+ke)n
Band of Investment Indirect computation of V R = [D/V H f] + [E/V H y]
through NOI/R.
Adjusted Band of Indirect computation of V, R = [D/V H f] + [E/V H ke] !
Investment: Akerson through NOI/R.
[D/V(1 ! %OSBn) H 1/sÚn,keá] !
[g H 1/sÚn,keá]
General Assumptions
$ Limited holding period
$ Constant net operating income
$ Amortized mortgages (thus equity build-up)
$ y and ke are known or assumed
$ Appreciation or depreciation of the property
$ Mortgage conditions affect values
9.13
Chapter 9
Further, we see that the DCF mortgage-equity formula can be directly adapted to deal with variable net
operating income, with more complex financing schemes and to the final outrage: the introduction of
taxation. Clearly, if you move from constant discounted before-tax cash flows to variable discounted
after-tax cash flows, you graduate from mortgage-equity appraisal to investment analysis and you will have
to deal with a (presumably) more realistic methodology. As a matter of fact, similar attempts of
emancipating the capitalization techniques (Akerson) from their constraining hypotheses have been
suggested.
It may be reassuring to realize that traditional capitalization techniques can be adapted to deal with more
realistic hypotheses, but we do not see much usefulness. Not only do discounted cash flow mortgage-equity
models provide the same results as any adapted version of Akerson’s formula, but they can also deal with
any form or shape of cash flows and can explicitly account for any type of financing package.
The raison d’être of traditional mortgage-equity capitalization techniques was that, in pre-computer times,
they made computations feasible thanks to the publication of pre-computed tables. This justification is not
sufficient anymore. Appraisers and analysts today concentrate more on the direct valuation techniques.
Recall that one of the uses for the mortgage-equity approach was to derive building and land capitalization
rates for the residual techniques. And, because mortgage-equity techniques separately consider equity, some
appraisers refer to this approach as an equity residual technique. Students with further interest in this topic
may wish to review Akerson’s Capitalization Theory and Techniques.
Mortgage-equity techniques have been criticized as being overly complex, requiring many awkward
calculations which are difficult to understand and explain, demanding of data, and limited to a few income
patterns. The validity in these complaints regarding its application does not diminish the historical
contribution of the concept or its instructiveness in introducing factors that need to be considered in
discounted cash flow analysis. As discussed earlier, mortgage-equity “tools” (especially the Ellwood variant
or Akerson modification) brought critical elements of financial theory to appraisal practice, recognizing the
importance of financial and operating leverage in analyzing real estate investments.
In the absence of computerized DCF applications that allow for income fluctuations, Ellwood and its
variations introduced tables that adjusted the yield rate for a host of factors including:
$ explaining and measuring capital recovery and the value of a wasting asset through both debt and
equity claims; and
$ accommodating varying income patterns.
Accommodating many market factors through adjustments to the yield rate (rather than within the income
stream, as can be readily accomplished within DCF analysis) 10 resulted in extremely complex
mortgage-equity formulae which notably reduced understandability by real estate practitioners. This lack of
understandability and the rigour required in properly supporting mortgage-equity conclusions greatly
diminished appraisers’ enthusiasm for popular application.
The advent of computerized technology enabled DCF analysis, permitting painless adjustments for factors
that impacted income to be made directly to income, rather than indirectly applied by manipulating yield rate
calculations. This development has greatly enhanced the understandability and explainability of both
10
Note that DCF valuation and Ellwood technique applications produce the same estimate of value when the same assumptions are used.
9.14
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
While appraisers may properly de-emphasize reliance on mortgage-equity capitalization due to complex
mathematical processes, any alternate analysis needs to recognize that investors do make decisions based on
such factors as financial and operating leverage, potential for appreciation (or risk of depreciation), and tax
shield implications. The convenient sophistication of computer-enabled DCF and its implied assumptions can
increase risk by obscuring understanding. Life becomes so much more complicated in the absence of four
good comparables!
As a closing word on mortgage-equity methods, readers may find the text box below of interest, “Do
investors actually use mortgage-equity techniques?” Following this text box, the remainder of this chapter
will examine residual valuation techniques. Residual methods are a sibling of mortgage-equity techniques in
that they also split property value into components: e.g., the financial, physical, and legal components that
encompass overall value.
An investor’s goal is not complicated: to acquire a property today for a price less than it can be resold
now or in future, thereby earning a reasonable time- and risk-adjusted return on capital. As the
appraiser is generally striving to emulate the investor/purchaser’s actions, it is important to consider
mortgage-equity techniques as an investor might rely upon them.
Poorvu and Cruikshank explain the private investor’s perspective: “Seasoned real estate people know
that on the negotiation end of this business, you have to make quick decisions, and in many cases you
have to make them more on gut feel than on the basis of exhaustive number-crunching. Most
professionals realize, too, that the average real estate investment only pays for itself in the long-term,
and that assumptions that are projected out ten years aren’t much grounded in reality.” He argues that
investors can find greater validity in a back-of-envelope analysis that considers the “four corners” of
the real estate industry comprising properties, capital markets, market players, and the external
environment. However, “sophisticated quantitative analyses also have their place in certain kinds of
real-world transactions. For example, computerized spreadsheets have made it easier to analyze
multiple scenarios, to calculate potential returns based on each of those scenarios, and to keep track of
what has happened over the longer-term.” (Poorvu, William J. and Cruikshank, Jeffrey L. 1999. The
Real Estate Game: The Intelligent Guide To Decision-Making And Investment.)
continued
9.15
Chapter 9
In a mid-1990s literature review and survey of REITs on all facets of their real estate investments,
Webb and McIntosh document trends in investors’ preferred criteria (measures) for before-tax and
after-tax investments. This comprehensive survey covered real estate portfolio size and type, portfolio
composition, investment by property type, international investments, before-tax analysis, after-tax
analysis, diversification strategies, computer usage, holding period assumptions and criteria for
obtaining mortgages, equity positions and construction loans. Before- and after-tax investment criteria
were compared with previous studies as shown in Tables 1 and 2 below.
Table 1
Comparison of Before-Tax Investment Criteria
Webb &
Wiley Farragher Page Webb McIntosh
Before-Tax Measure (1972) (1982) (1982-1983) (1982-1983) (1984-1985)
Gross income/Purchase price 10% 6% 5% 35% 30%
Net income/Initial equity 36% 16% 14% 80% 68%
Equity dividend rate 58% 61% 33% 72% 94%
Payback period 11% 17% 12% 38% 38%
Net present value 32% 27% NA 65% 57%
Internal rate of return NA 57% 57% 77% 66%
Overall rate NA 21% 45% NA NA
None used 9% NA 5% 11% 0%
Webb & McIntosh found that all firms used before-tax analysis. The most used before-tax investment
criteria was clearly the equity dividend rate. Its popularity increased with later studies, showing the
influence of increased computer usage.
Table 2
Comparison of After-Tax Investment Criteria
Webb &
Wiley Farragher Page Webb McIntosh
Before-Tax Measure (1972) (1982) (1982-1983) (1982-1983) (1984-1985)
Cash-on-cash 25% 39% 17% 61% 62%
Brokers rate 12% 45% NA 21% 19%
Payback period 8% NA 11% 26% 26%
Net present value 7% NA 20% 48% 28%
Internal rate of return 18% NA 50% 65% 42%
Tax shelter benefits 18% NA 9% 46% 28%
Financial management rate NA 18% 11% NA NA
None used 46% NA 26% 29% 19%
Webb & McIntosh found more firms using after-tax investment criteria, and greater use of more
sophisticated methods adapted from current financial theory – particularly evident in the increased use
of cash-on-cash analysis. Investors’ use of more sophisticated analysis like net present value and
internal rate of return has also increased over time.
These results show that certain of the mortgage-equity elements remain critical in investors’
decision-making. The techniques applied by investors today stand on the shoulders of the
mortgage-equity concept, but reflect more efficient use of modern technology and current financial
theory. Based on this research and the observations of seasoned real estate practitioners, it can be
concluded that mortgage-equity techniques continue to be useful only to the extent that their careful
application reflects the decisions of investor-purchasers in the marketplace.
9.16
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
Residual techniques enable the appraiser to analyze income properties as they might be “split” in three
different ways:
$ Legal components reflected under the terms of a lease contract, where the lessor and lessee have
separate interests;
$ Financial components as discussed above using mortgage-equity analysis, where the mortgagees
(lenders) and equity investors hold separate interests; and
$ Physical components - Traditional appraisal theory recognizes the separate contributions to total
property value of land and buildings (or other improvements). According to this tradition, each
component contributes to net operating income. An important difference is that improvements are
considered a depreciable component that necessitate an allowance for capital recovery (return of
investment in addition to the return on investment), while land is viewed as imperishable and thus
requires only a return on investment. 11
As leases are considered separately, the following comments touch only on physical and financial component
“residuals”. Residual analysis can be useful where the appraiser has supportable evidence of value for one
component of value (e.g., land, building, or total property), but needs to extrapolate that available
information to estimate value of other property elements. Selection of the appropriate residual technique to
apply depends upon the nature of the property, the information available, and the requirements of the
appraisal assignment.
The following excerpt from the Appraisal of Real Estate (3rd Canadian Edition) introduces the methodology
for applying residual techniques:
Regardless of which known and unknown (residual) components of the property are being analyzed,
the appraiser starts with the value of the known items and the net operating income, as shown in
Table 22.3 (reproduced below as Table 9.5). The appraiser does the following:
$ applies an appropriate capitalization rate to the value of the known component to derive the
annual income needed to support the investment in that component;
$ deducts the annual income needed to support the investment in the known component from the
net operating income to derive the residual income available to support the investment in the
unknown component;
$ capitalizes the residual income at a capitalization rate appropriate to the investment in the
residual component to derive the present value of this component; and
$ adds the values of the known component and the residual component to derive a value indication
for the total property.
11
Of course, appraisers now recognize that land can and does decline in value, thus this simplistic assumption must be challenged according
to the nature of any specific appraisal assignment.
9.17
Chapter 9
Table 9.5
Known and Unknown Variables in Residual Calculations
Land residual Net operating income (NOI) Land or site value (VL)
Building value (VB)
Building capitalization rate (RB)
Land capitalization rate (RL)
Thus far, we have conveniently looked at a very abstract and unified form of property in which value is
simply the present value of a stream of income. But in some particular appraisal situations, we may want to
“split” the total value of a property among some of its many component parts: improvements and land,
mortgage and equity, or various legal interests. It is possible for an appraiser to estimate the value of an
unknown component if the known components of the equation have been satisfied, by capitalizing the
income allocated to the unknown component.
To simplify matters in this section we will deal with only two components of value: the value of the
buildings and the value of the land. We can write the equation:
Why should the two components of value be treated differently? Because buildings have a finite life, they
depreciate in value and the investor may require a higher rate of return to compensate for this depreciation.
This higher rate of return should include a recovery of the capital over and above the return on the capital.
On the other hand, the land component is not considered to be a wasting asset and, therefore, not
depreciable 12 and the rate of return should only reflect the opportunity cost of the capital invested: the return
on the land value.
12
We simply say that no capital cost allowance can be taken on the land value. Obviously land values can decline (or increase) over time, as
can building value (due to market conditions as opposed to depreciation) and thus a compensating return for this drop in value should also be
included. Generally, land is not seen to depreciate, except perhaps in some circumstances such as waterfront land being eroded by the river,
lake, or ocean on which it fronts. This fact seems to be rarely considered in the appraisal literature dealing with residual techniques.
9.18
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
This concept of providing for a return of capital extends beyond the valuation of the building component of
real estate and will apply to any “wasting asset” (an asset that declines in value as it wears out or is
depleted). This principle will apply to an oil well, gravel pit, coal mine, or a leasehold estate.
The general principle can be illustrated as follows. Assume you purchase (prepay rent) a leasehold estate
having 20 years remaining. The purchase price is $100,000. The property is sub-let and produces an income
of $20,000 per year. A simple yield calculation would show a return of 19.42%.
However, if the investor spends all of the $20,000 each year, at the end of 20 years they would have
nothing, not even the original $100,000. Hence the $20,000 per annum includes both a return on capital and
a recovery of (the $100,000) capital. Therefore it is necessary to find some way to explicitly handle the
recovery of capital. In fact, as we will see later, this calculation for this simple leasehold example does
include provision for the recovery of capital; it is just hidden in the arithmetic and we will return to this
problem later.
From this conceptual physical splitting of the property value stems the residual technique of capitalization.
The general principle is that the value of one of the physical components can be measured separately and
then the residual portion of the total value measures the contribution of the other component to total value.
As we shall see shortly, these techniques should be used only under fairly specific conditions and they are
designed to address particular appraisal problems. Land and building residual techniques are most
appropriately applied when:
• The current use either represents the highest and best use of the land or the property is assumed to
be ready for redevelopment to its highest and best use.
Such specific problems are more appropriately illustrated with case analysis and we will limit the
presentation here to a technical and brief presentation of two generally accepted residual techniques: the land
residual and the building residual. Since any of the residual techniques (land, building, and property residual
techniques) may rely on two different depreciation models, we are faced with six alternative computational
choices. Let us first clear the way by reviewing the different depreciation alternatives generally adopted in
the appraisal literature.
Quite aside from the conceptual reasons for valuing land and improvements separately, appraisers may find a
number of occasions where they are asked to produce separate valuations for the component parts. For
example, in some areas the property tax on land is much higher than that applied for improvements, and in
these instances the split in value between land/improvements becomes critical (and hotly contested in
appeals).
9.19
Chapter 9
Two primary methods of handling depreciation are described in the appraisal literature. 13 These include:
To illustrate the two methods of estimating depreciation, an improvement costing $100,000 which has an
expected life of 15 years will be used.
The recovery of capital can be obtained through the accumulation of a sinking fund: the annuity required to
accumulate the initial capital value of the building. If this accumulation was safely done (for example
through saving accounts or Guaranteed Investment Certificates) at the safe rate of return (r%) over the n
years of the building’s life, the annual recovery would be:
where sƒn,r„, which is the future value of an annuity for n periods at an interest rate r. The calculation for
this is illustrated in Appendix 9.2 at the end of this chapter.
The above equation can be viewed as simply a calculation for the future value of a series of payments such
as:
FV = PMT H sÚn, rá
or
1
PMT = FV H
s a n, r b
However, in the Hoskold model the future value is equal to the initial capital cost (the depreciation base) of
the improvement and the payment is the annual amount of depreciation.
Using our example of a $100,000 asset with a 15 year life, if we assume a safe rate of 6%, the annual
recovery will be $4,296.28 found as follows:
1
Annual Recovery = $100,000 H
s a15, 6%b
= $4,296.28
Since the safe rate r% is probably different from the expected rate of return on the unlevered investment (k),
the expression “dual rate of return” model is sometimes used to describe this concept.
13
A third depreciation method is the Babcock premise (Babcock, F.M., Appraisal Principles and Procedures, R. Irwin, 1968). This method
is outdated and will not be covered in depth in this chapter. In brief, the Babcock method proposes that a building may be assumed to
depreciate linearly at the rate 1/n over the n years of the economic life of the asset. This straight line method is a special case of the more
general problem of accounting for the recovery or “return of capital” (as opposed to the “return on capital”). This straight line method is not
preferred because it basically assumes an investor will set aside a return of capital each year, equal to 1/nth the value, and these annual
deposits will bear no interest (the old “under the mattress” approach).
9.20
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
In this method the recovery of capital takes the form of an annuity which accumulates at the same rate as the
return on the capital (k). The return on the capital and the return of the capital are blended in an annuity
payment of:
1
Annual Recovery = VB H
s a n, k b
Once again, using our example and an assumed rate of 9%, the annual recovery of $3,405.89 is found as:
1
Annual Recovery = $100,000 H
s a15, 9%b
= $3,405.89
Note that in the Inwood approach the rate used for the return of capital is k%, the same rate as we use for
the return on capital.
Is the Inwood or Hoskold method the best? On theoretical grounds one can defend the Hoskold method but
the Inwood method is much more commonly used and easier (which may explain why it is more commonly
used). Perhaps if we extend the analysis into the next step in the valuation process some further light will be
shed on the issue. The next step is to incorporate each depreciation method into the valuation model itself
and in doing so, we can observe how the capitalized value of the assets should be affected by the choice of a
particular recovery scenario (Hoskold’s or Inwood’s). If the share of net operating income attributable to the
building component is noted NOIB, 14 we derive the capitalized value of this building by the direct
capitalization technique where the capitalization rate should account for the expected return on the capital (k)
and the return of the capital, i.e., the depreciation allowance.
NOI B
VB = NOI B or
R k + depreciation
Under the alternative models, the recovery adjustment to the capitalization rate will be:
Substituting these into the above equation we get the following two valuation formulae:
NOI B
(1) VB = (Hoskold)
k + san,1 rb
14
Just how to split net operating income between land and building is another matter to be discussed later in this chapter.
9.21
Chapter 9
NOI B
(2) VB = (Inwood)
k + san,1 k b
Before moving forward, let’s take a closer look at what is happening. Some numbers in an example will
help.
Example 9.1
Assume we have an asset which has an unknown building value of VB. The net operating income attributed
to the building is $60,000 per annum. The building has an expected life of 20 years. The required rate of
return is 12% and a safe rate for recovery of capital is considered to be 10%.
Using the two depreciation models, find VB, the value of the building.
NOIB = $60,000
n = 20 years
k = .12 or 12%
r = .10 or 10%
Let us first consider the Hoskold method. We can find VB (the value of the building), then re-examine it.
NOI B $60,000
VB = =
1 1
k+ .12 +
s a n, r b s a 20, 0.10b
Readers may use a financial calculator to find the value of sÚ20, 10%á (the future value of an annuity of $1
for 20 periods, compounded at 10%; see Appendix 9.2).
$60,000
VB =
1
0.12 +
57.27
VB = $436,490.62
Let’s now work backwards to check out the model. If we pay $436,490.62 for the building and we want to
recover this amount over a 20 year expected life, how much must we set aside each year if our recovery
fund will grow at 10%?
We want to make 20 annual deposits to an account which grows at 10% compounded per annum and will
grow to $436,490.62.
9.22
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
1
Deposit = $436,490.62 H
s a 20, 0.10 b
1
Deposit = $436,490.62 H
57.277
Deposit = $7,620.69
Hence if we deposit $7,620.69 each year for 20 years and it grows at 10% per annum, we will have a future
value of $436,490.62.
Will we still earn 12%? Let’s check. We pay $436,490.62; receive $6,000 each year for 20 years but must
set aside $7,620.69 each year. However, after 20 years we get our recapture account which by then has
$436,490.62. Therefore, our yield is:
Table 9.6
The Hoskold Sinking Fund Hypothesis
Note that the accumulated return of capital increases each year by the amount of the deposit ($7,620.69) plus
one year’s interest on the previous deposits. Hence, after two years the accumulated total is:
Over the 20 years you deposit $152,413.80 (20 x $7,620.69), but the compound interest increases this to
$436,490.62.
9.23
Chapter 9
We can now examine the third method of handling recovery of capital, and then try to generalize this issue.
The Inwood approach to the return of capital is to assume that the return of capital can be recovered at the
same rate as the required return on capital. Therefore, in our example, the value of the building is:
NOI B $60,000
VB = =
1 1
k+ .12 +
s an, k b s a 20, 0.12b
$60, 000
VB =
0.13387
VB = $448,196.01
Let’s rework this method backwards to see how it compares with the Hoskold method.
If we pay $448,196.01 and expect our recovery of capital to grow at 12% per annum, how much must we
set aside each year for 20 years?
1
Deposit = $448,196.01 H
s a 20, 12%b
Deposit = $6,220.06
And if we deposit $6,220.06 into our recovery account, which grows at 12%, after 20 years we will have
$448,196.01. In the meantime our “return on capital” each year is $5,377.96 ($6,000 B $622.04).
The pattern of cash flows for this method is summarized in Table 9.7.
9.24
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
Table 9.7
The Inwood Sinking Fund Hypothesis
Now we are in a position to summarize these two methods of handling return of capital.
The only difference between the Hoskold and the Inwood method is the choice of the rate of earnings to be
applied to the annual deposits of the return of capital:
$ the Hoskold method uses a safe rate to accumulate the return of capital, then k% to find the value;
$ the Inwood method uses the required rate of return (k%) for both the accumulation of the return of
capital and to find the value.
It is for these reasons that the Hoskold method is frequently called the dual rate method (for the two rates in
the analysis) and the Inwood method is called the single rate method. Readers are perhaps more accustomed
to seeing the Inwood method in a slightly different form where:
VB = NOIB H aÚn, ká
In other words, VB is equal to the present value of an annuity of NOIB for “n” periods, discounted at k% (a
simple annuity problem). However, the equation above can be rewritten as:
⎡1 - (1+ k )- n ⎤
VB = NOIB H ⎢ ⎥
⎣ k ⎦
We can return to our original example involving the leasehold interest and now relate it to the Inwood
method. The original leasehold example involved a prepaid lease, costing $100,000, which produced an
income of $20,000 per annum for 20 years on a sublet basis. The yield was found to be 19.42% calculated
as above:
i% = 19.42%
Where is the recovery of capital? This Inwood approach implicitly assumes the investor can recover capital
at the same rate they earn on the investment (in this case 19.42%). Let’s check. We want to find an annual
deposit which, made for 20 years and growing at 19.42%, will accumulate to $100,000.
9.25
Chapter 9
$100,000
Deposit =
s a 20, 19.42%b
Deposit = $574.61
If the investor sets aside $574.61 per year for 20 years, it will grow to $100,000 (at 19.42%). Will this still
leave the investor with a yield of 19.42% on the original investment?
Therefore the investor earns 19.42% (and accumulates capital at 19.42%) with the Inwood annuity factor.
We earlier posed the question as to which method is best? Inwood is used more often, and simpler, but is it
best? Note that the periodic recovery of capital is assumed to be reinvested in either method: Inwood
reinvests at the required rate of return while Hoskold uses a (lower) safe rate. 15 Keep in mind that the
recovery rate is the rate at which the fund will grow; if you pay income tax, this will be lower than the rate
you earn on the recovery fund [g = (1-t)i] where i is the rate you earn, t is the tax rate, and g is the rate the
fund grows. Moreover, this accumulation rate for the recovery fund must be available each year and for
sums of money which are considerably smaller than the original investments. For these reasons, using a rate
of growth on the recovery fund which is less than the expected return on the original investment is at least
conceptually superior.
No matter which residual technique is being applied, an appraiser begins the valuation process with the value
of the known element and the net operating income. The generic residual process is represented in the
following steps:
15
It would not be logical to assume reinvestment at a rate in excess of the required rate, otherwise you would skip the original investment and
put all your money in the recovery fund.
9.26
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
1. Apply a reliable capitalization rate to the value of the known component to determine the
proportionate income required to support that component.
2. Subtract the income derived in step 1 from the NOI to determine the residual income attributable to
support investment in the unknown component.
3. Calculate the present value of the residual component by capitalizing that residual income (step 2)
using a capitalization rate appropriate to the unknown component.
4. Add the known component value to the residual component value to arrive at an estimated value
for the entire property.
The land residual method, the building residual method, and the property residual method will each be
briefly illustrated.
1st Step: Estimate the value of the building VB (any approach will do: income, cost, or market).
2nd Step: Allocate the total NOI for the property to the building (NOIB) and to the land (NOIL).
3rd Step: Estimate the value of the land (VL) through the direct capitalization of NOIL. The value of the
land is the capitalized value of the residual NOIL.
4th Step: Finally, you obtain the full value through the identity V = VB + VL
The following example illustrates the basic application of the land residual method, before considering
the Hoskold or Inwood formula. We need to estimate the contributory value of the land in order to
estimate the value of the property; therefore, we must calculate the residual income to the land and
capitalize it to provide an indication of the land value.
Example adopted from The Appraisal of Real Estate, 3rd Cdn. Ed., Ch. 22.
9.27
Chapter 9
1. Estimated building value – depreciated cost estimate of the building (assumed to represent the
contributory of the building to the market value of the property). This is most reliable for newer
buildings with minimal depreciation.
2. Net Operating Income – income/expense analysis and stabilization for the subject property.
3. Building capitalization rate – return on the investment in the building (normally, the same as the
safe rate of interest, the rate applied to the land) plus return of the investment in the depreciating
asset. If the building has a remaining economic life of, say, 28.5 years in our example, then the
building depreciates 1/28.5 per year, or 3.5% per year. This is the return of.
4. Land capitalization rate – the safe rate of return on monies invested in real estate. Normally, the
rate indicated by analyzing land (or ground) rents, or other appropriate market indicators. This is
the return on.
What is the relationship between the building capitalization rate, the land capitalization rate, and the
overall capitalization rate?
In our example, the land capitalization rate (or land interest rate) is 6.5%. The building capitalization
rate equals the land capitalization rate plus the rate of recapture. In this case, 6.5% + 3.5% = 10.0%.
If the market indicates a land value to building value ratio of 1:3 (land to property value ratio would be
1:4, and the building to property value ratio would be 3:4) then the land is worth 25% of the property
value and the building is worth 75% of the property value. So, the overall rate is the result of
weighting the land and building capitalization rates as follows: 25% x 6.5% + 75% x 10.0% =
9.125%.
Example 9.2
VB = $400,000
NOI = $70,000
k = 0.12
r = 0.10
n = 20 years
1st Step: We assume here that the value of the building is $400,000 obtained from a market analysis of
comparable units.
2nd Step: Allocate NOI between NOIB and NOIL. We must choose one of the two depreciation methods
and invert the computations presented previously. Thus alternatively we have:
Now we can derive the net operating income for the land: NOIL = NOI ! NOIB
9.28
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
3rd Step: We capitalize one of the previous net operating incomes for the land (NOIL) at the rate of return
(k) to find the capital value of the required lot (VL).
$15,016
VL = = $125,133
0.12
$16,448
VL = = $137,067
0.12
4th Step: Finally, we have two alternative total values from the identity:
V = V B + VL
V = $400,000 + $125,133 = $525,133
V = $400,000 + $137,067 = $537,067
The same answers could be obtained directly from the following formulae (see Table 9.8 also):
$70,000 − $54,984
V = $400,000 +
0.12
9.29
Chapter 9
Table 9.8
The Land Residual Procedure
V = VL + VB $525,133 $537,067
Two obvious and immediate problems in this method come to mind: first, we must rely on some estimation
of the value of the building (VB) and second, why not find the overall value (V) using the income method
and simply deduct the value of the building to get the land residual?
In principle, we could trust the cost approach to help us determine the value of the building. But, unless we
deal with a brand new construction on which we have good information we know how carefully we should
handle values obtained via the cost approach. In practice, this technique could nevertheless be vaguely
justified when the value of the improvements is small compared to the value of the land or when the
improvements are new; hence, depreciation is not a major consideration (e.g., golf courses or cemeteries.)
In such cases, any error on the building value (VB) will be harmless and almost the entire NOI will be
allocated to land values in order to derive VL. Here VL would be a residual, but nevertheless the most
important component of value.
This explains in part, why this method of finding a land residual is generally limited to situations where the
improvements have relatively little value (which may include properties ripe for development) or where an
assumed or actual redevelopment is about to occur and reliable cost estimates are available. These limiting
conditions suggest when the land residual is best applied and explain why it is often called the “development
method” of appraisal. This is illustrated in detail later in this chapter.
Our second problem is of greater concern. If we know or can estimate the full net operating income and the
value of the improvements, why not simply capitalize the full net operating income, using a familiar income
method of valuation, and deduct the value of the improvements to arrive at a land residual?
VL = V B V B
VL = $538,462 B $400,000
VL = $138,462
9.30
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
This simplified approach is, in fact, the more common direct approach for finding either a land or building
residual.
The procedure to be followed on the building residual is identical to those for the land residual, but with a
different unknown.
1st Step: The value of the site (VL) is given, assumed, or presumably obtained from market valuation.
2nd Step: Allocate the total NOI between the land (NOIL) and to the building (NOIB).
3rd Step: Derive the value of the building (VB) through the direct capitalization of NOIB. (The value of
the building is the capitalization of the residual NOIB.)
The following example illustrates the basic application of the building residual method, before
considering the Hoskold or Inwood formula. We need to estimate the contributory value of the building
in order to estimate the value of the property; therefore, we must calculate the residual income to the
building and capitalize it to provide an indication of the building value.
Example adopted from The Appraisal of Real Estate, 3rd Cdn. Ed., Ch. 22.
Example
VL = $20,000
NOI = $70,000
k = 0.12
r = 0.10
n = 20 years
This example is summarized in Table 9.9 where we observe again that the choice between depreciation
hypotheses gives us a choice of two possible valuations for the property. We do not need to lead the reader
through each step of the example so we can present the direct solutions formally.
9.31
Chapter 9
NOI - (V L × k)
V = VL +
k + (1 / s an, r b)
NOI − (V L × k)
V = VL +
k + (1 / s an, k b)
Table 9.9
The Building Residual Procedure
V = VL + VB $511,780.86 $524,934.31
Since “pure” market land values may be easier to obtain than pure building values, this technique may seem
more appealing than the previous one. But, in fact, the same awkward problem remains: on what basis can
we seriously justify the allocation of the income between land and building?
9.32
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
This technique would typically apply to the appraisal of the development value of a site not used at its
“highest and best” potential. We have the existing NOI and we assume an expected reversion value for the
site:
2nd Step: The total value of the property based on its current use is obtained through the
capitalization of NOI.
3rd Step: The reversion value of the site is assumed and the present value is computed.
4th Step: The formally computed value is now adjusted to account for the reversion value of
the site.
Example 9.3
NOI VL
V= +
k +1 / s an, r b (1+ k ) n
NOI VL
V= +
(k+1 / s an, k b) (1+ k ) n
9.33
Chapter 9
Table 9.10
The Property Residual Procedure
As we said above, the only justifiable use of this method is when one deals with a redevelopment project.
The existing building generates a short term (and sub-optimal) stream of income and you have some reliable
information on the full potential value of the site and on the timing of the project. The earlier the
redevelopment, the more reliable the appraisal will be.
The general income capitalization approach may look like a naive way to handle realistic valuation
problems. We have nevertheless demonstrated that there is more than meets the eyes behind the very simple
V = NOI/R model. We have reviewed the principal implicit assumptions and concluded that, when properly
handled, this model should give reliable answers. Table 9.11 provides a synopsis of the income approach,
with residual approaches considered.
While the residual techniques may give an illusion of sophistication, in fact they raise difficult empirical
problems and they should be used parsimoniously under quite specific conditions. The empirical problem of
“properly handling” the computation of the capitalization rate is not a trivial one and unfortunately not much
guidance can be offered here. The brief review in this chapter of the “physical split” family of techniques
should have been sufficient to drive the message home: user beware!
9.34
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
Conceptual Basis
Land is valuable because of the utility it provides people. In its natural unimproved state, land has little
value. For example, millions of square miles of land in Northern Canada have virtually no economic value
because they are of no economic use. However, the parcels that are demanded for some useful purpose, such
as hydroelectric dams, access to timber, oil, or mineral resources, or fishing lodges do have value. The
problem facing urban land economists and appraisers is how to determine the value of these developable
parcels of land.
There are several methods of determining the value of developable land. Perhaps the simplest method is to
compare the plot of land to other similar plots which have recently sold, and assume that the plot in question
should sell for approximately the same price. For example, if you are valuing an undeveloped recreational
property and there are many recent sales of properties which are similar, these sale prices could represent an
accurate estimate of value. This is an application of the direct sales comparison approach and can operate
very efficiently, as long as there are sales of similar properties for comparison. However, it can be difficult
to apply this approach if the property in question is unique or if there are no similar sales. For example, if
the property above was very large, or had a unique view, or was in an isolated area, it is possible that no
similar properties could be found to compare to, and it would be difficult to find a justifiable value estimate.
This problem of unique parcels of land is particularly relevant for valuing potential commercial
developments in urban areas. These properties are often unique in size and attributes, and each alternative
use has its own subset of desirable features. Two lots which are in the same neighbourhood and are identical
in size may have very different values if one has the attributes required for a shopping centre, while the
other is best suited for a warehouse. In these cases, it is often difficult to find sales which are similar enough
to the property in question to be able to infer value. The direct sales comparison method cannot be used to
value many of these properties.
9.35
Chapter 9
Table 9.11
The Income Approach: A Synopsis
NOI
V=
R
Sources of k Sources of ka
V = VB + VL
9 9 9
Sinking NOI − [ V B(k+1 / sa n,r b)] NOI- V L × k
V=
NOI
+
VL
V = VB+ V = VL +
Fund
k k+1 / san,r b k+1 / san,r b (1+ k ) n
Hoskold:
General Assumptions
9.36
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
Rather than examining the sales of other lots to determine the value of a particular piece of land, the
development method focuses the appraisal on the property in question. Try to view the situation from the
perspective of a potential developer. If you were planning to buy this piece of land in order to build
something and then sell the property for a profit, how much would you be willing to pay for the land? In this
sense, the maximum you would pay for this land would be just enough so that the land cost plus the cost of
improving the land exactly equals the expected proceeds of selling the property (of course, the cost of
improving the property would have to include your required profit as the developer). Your maximum
payment for the land is therefore the amount left over after paying all other costs associated with the
development. This is the basis of the development method of appraisal; the price of land is determined by
what developers of end-use products can afford to pay after accounting for all costs of development.
The value of land under this appraisal method is therefore a residual amount resulting from the improvement
of land. Any improvement that increases the value of the land’s final use increases the land residual. For
example, if house prices are increasing, with other costs remaining constant, land prices should rise.
Similarly, anything that raises the cost of development lowers the land residual, and lowers the value of
land. The cost of construction is therefore directly related to the value of land. Interest rates are also directly
related, since financing charges form part of the cost of development.
An underlying assumption of urban land markets is that land should be used for the activity which yields the
greatest utility, that is, the use which generates the highest rent. The residual method operates under this
assumption as well. For any particular parcel of land, the better suited the improvements, the higher the
potential residual should be. The developer who is proposing the project with the highest residual should be
able to bid the highest for the land and be able to implement this end use. Thus, the land will be used for the
best suited project, with the highest possible utility, meeting the requirement for the land to be in its highest
and best use.
Development Process
The calculation of residual values depends on estimates of future revenues, expenses, and risk. The
development residual method entails forecasting cash flows into the future, and can involve considerable
complexity. The strength of the end-use market has a great effect on value. Consumer attitudes, interest
rates, and the general state of the economy affect what people will pay, which affects sale prices and filters
down to the land residual. A large part of this appraisal process is to assess the trends in end-use markets in
order to determine the maximum future sale proceeds.
The first step in examining a potential development is to determine what type of end-use would be most
suitable for the land in question. The developer should examine the site, check the zoning, and try to
determine what is the highest and best use of the property. Next, the developer must decide roughly what the
improvements will consist of. Conceptual plans should be drawn and estimates made of the saleable space
which will be created.
Once the form of improvements has been decided on, with rough estimates of the general size, the value of
the property upon completion must be calculated. This value can be found by capitalizing the expected future
income stream at the market capitalization rate (income method of appraisal). This amount represents the
maximum cash flow which will be received from this project. If the developer purchases the land and
undertakes this project, the profit made would depend on how much of this amount is remaining when the
project is complete.
9.37
Chapter 9
The next step is to determine the expenses necessary to develop the land into a new end use. Some examples
of these costs include construction, real estate commissions, architect fees, financing charges, and
developer’s profit. After computing all of these expenses, and subtracting these from the expected income
from the property, the remainder is the land residual.
The land residual can be calculated under several different frameworks, but all of these have a similar
theme: calculate the income expectations for the developed land, subtract all expenses associated with this
development, and the remainder is the land residual. The following is one common framework, with its
components explained below.
This is the forecast for the maximum cash flow that the property will generate when completed. This figure
could be as simple as a rough guess at future sale prices, or it could involve complex discounted cash flow
analysis. Some terminology used in this type of analysis includes:
Some calculations of gross value upon completion include the net saleable area multiplied by an estimate of
the value per square foot when sold, or net rentable area multiplied by the estimated rent per square foot (an
estimate of future gross potential rent) and capitalized at a market capitalization rate.
Costs of Sale:
Closing costs are expenses required when selling real estate, and include items such as real estate
commissions and legal fees. Marketing costs are also often included in costs of sale, as large development
projects often require considerable promotional expense to facilitate their sale.
Hard Costs:
Hard costs represent the expenses directly associated with construction. The simplest method to calculate
hard costs would be to estimate the expected construction cost per square foot and then apply this figure to
the gross buildable area. More complex methods would involve estimating the cost of each component
9.38
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
separately (such as the cost per square foot to build the roof, exterior walls, foundation, and so on) or
pricing the materials and labour needed for every portion of the planned development.
Soft Costs:
Soft costs are the overhead associated with the development process. Some examples of these include
consultant’s fees (such as architects and engineers), property taxes during construction, and interim
financing costs. Soft costs are often expressed as a percentage of hard costs, although they can be forecasted
and itemized in detail if required. In particular, the interim financing costs during construction generally
require fairly detailed analysis, and will be dealt with below in a separate category.
Most development projects are undertaken using debt financing for a large portion of the development cost.
The typical scenario is for a developer to pay a down payment on a piece of land, with a mortgage loan for
the remainder of the purchase price, and then arrange a construction loan to supply funds for all expenses
incurred between the time of purchasing the land and selling the completed development. The funds for this
loan would be advanced periodically as cash flow is needed for the development. These advances could be
based on a pre-set schedule of cash flow requirements or could be an open line of credit to a certain limit, or
any other arrangement which is made with a lender. The loan would generally be interest accruing, requiring
payment of principal plus interest at the end of the loan term. Many of these construction loans also have
arranged long-term take out commitments for the end of the term to add security for the construction lender.
The calculations for this construction loan will generally involve fairly detailed present value analysis. The
cash flow advances for each period will have to be accumulated and accrued interest calculated.
Developer’s Profit:
The amount remaining after deducting all of the expenses above must be enough to cover the cost of
purchasing land plus a profit for the developer. The required developer’s profit could be stated in many
ways. Some of the possibilities include a lump sum amount, a percentage of gross or net value on
completion, or a percentage of total project cost. The latter method can involve a complicated calculation, as
the developer’s profit is based on total cost, which also includes land and land financing, both of which are
unknown at this point.
A developer must purchase a plot of land before a development project can be undertaken. In most
situations, a developer will want to finance at least part of the price of the land, and will pay a portion as a
down payment (the developer either does not have enough money today to pay for the entire land purchase
price, or wants to take advantage of financial leverage). This loan will accrue interest over the development
period until the project is built and sold, when there will be proceeds to repay the loan amount plus interest.
The residual to land and land financing cost is the amount of proceeds remaining from the sale of the
completed project once all expenses associated with developing the land (including profit) have been
deducted. This residual amount will consist of accumulated interest on the land loan (if financing was used),
plus the future value of the land cost.
The interest on the land loan should be a simple calculation, as it is just an interest accruing loan. However,
the calculation is complicated because the land cost is still unknown (and is in fact what we are trying to
find). The interest on this loan has to be expressed algebraically, in terms of the unknown land variable. If
9.39
Chapter 9
you are working under the assumption that no down payment is provided by the developer and the purchase
price of the land is provided 100% by debt financing, this makes the calculation slightly easier. However, it
is not a very realistic assumption, as most development projects will require at least some equity.
The following illustrates how this financing cost could be expressed using formulas:
Interest on land loan = loan balance at end of term ! original loan amount
= [(total land cost ! equity) H (1+i)n] ! (total land cost ! equity)
= (total land cost ! equity) H [(1+i)n ! 1]
Land Residual:
The land residual is the amount remaining when all expenses of the development project other than land have
been covered. This residual would be used to repay the principal of any financing used to purchase the land,
together with a repayment of the initial equity invested (the interest on the land loan and the return on the
developer’s equity have already been accounted for above). To determine the maximum amount that should
be bid for a plot of land today by the developer, the present value of this land residual should be calculated.
However, what makes this calculation difficult is that the land residual figure is expressed as a formula, not
as a dollar figure. To calculate the present value of this requires solving for the unknown in the discounting
formula.
• Timing of Cash Flows: In developing a property, there are two components to the time frame from
purchase of the property to completion of the sale of (all) the property. The time frame establishes
the investment horizon, or holding period to be used as the basis for discounted cash flow
calculations.
• Development Time: The development of time is the period from purchase to completion of all the
work necessary to sell all the completed project.
• Absorption Period: The absorption period is the time required for the market to absorb the entire
property, whether leasing out the project or selling all developed lots. Overlapping the development
time and the absorption period will be the marketing period – the time frame from when the
developer begins to market the finished product to the time when the last product has been sold.
You have found a block of vacant land for sale which you believe would be a good site for an apartment
building. You want to put in a bid, and as you believe that this is a highly desirable site for other developers,
you want to ensure that your bid is the maximum possible. The following are your projections for this
development:
$ can build one hundred units, 1,500 square feet each (net saleable area of 150,000 square feet)
$ the building efficiency will be 80%, with a gross buildable area of 187,500 square feet
$ development will take 6 months to build and sell
$ estimated sale price of each unit will be $300,000
$ closing costs will be 3% of gross value upon completion
$ hard costs will be $100 per square foot of gross buildable area
$ soft costs (including property tax, consulting fees, and legal fees) will be 20% of hard costs
9.40
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
$ cash for hard and soft costs will be advanced in 6 equal advances at the beginning of each month in
the development process. Interest will accrue at a rate of j12 = 9% with all principal and interest due
at the end of the 6 month construction phase.
$ developer’s profit will be 15% of the net value upon completion
$ land purchase will be 70% financed, with an interest accruing loan at a rate of j12 = 12%, with all
interest and principal due at the end of 6 months.
$ cash flows received in the future will be discounted at j12 = 15%
Solution:
Gross value upon completion: 100 units @ $300,000 per unit $30,000,000
! costs of sale (3%) 900,000
Net value upon completion $29,100,000
! hard costs: $100 H 187,500 sq.ft. 18,750,000
! soft costs: 20% H $18,750,000 3,750,000
! development financing cost* 598,063
! developer’s profit: 15% of $29,100,000 4,365,000
Residual to land and land financing cost $ 1,636,937
! land financing cost** ?
Land residual *** ?
To find the land financing cost and the land residual, the formulas shown in the following supporting
calculations must be solved algebraically. Once the land residual is found, the maximum bid price for the
land today can be calculated using present value analysis (based on a discount rate of j12 = 15%).
Supporting calculations:
Total development cost is $18,750,000 hard costs plus $3,750,000 soft costs. This amount will be paid out
in 6 equal instalments at the beginning of each month.
= ($18,750,000 + $3,750,000) ) 6
= $3,750,000
9.41
Chapter 9
Purchase of land was 70% financed, therefore original land loan can be shown as 0.7 L
(where L = present value of total land cost)
Therefore, future value of land cost (equity + debt) plus accrued interest on land loan must equal
$1,636,937.
0 6 months
The dollar amount of the land financing cost can be calculated once the land residual (and therefore the
amount of the land loan) are calculated.
***Land Residual:
Residual to land and land financing cost = FV of land cost + accrued interest
1,636,937= L H (1+0.0125)6 + 0.0430641L
1,636,937= 1.0773832L + 0.0430641L
1.120447L = 1,636,937
L = 1,460,968
Since L is equal to the present value of the total land cost, the maximum bid price for the land today will be
$1,460,968.
If the developer pays $1,460,968 for the land today and the purchase is 70% financed, the financing will
account for $1,022,678. At an interest rate of j12=12%, this loan will accrue $62,915 interest over 6
months.
Therefore, the funds available for land at the end of 6 months would be $1,636,937 ! 62,915= $1,574,022.
The present value of this at a discount rate of j12 = 15% is equal to $1,460,968.
9.42
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
The development residual method is a model which abstracts and simplifies reality. However, it is a fairly
good approximation of investor behaviour, combining discounted cash flow techniques, and the income and
the cost methods of appraisal. This development method is best used in situations where no applicable direct
sales evidence can be found. This method requires extensive forecasting, with many assumptions required,
such as absorption rates, discount rates, and market trends. Considerable research must be done in order to
ensure that these estimates are as accurate as possible. In this model small changes in assumptions could
have a large effect on value, so a sensitivity analysis may be useful to test the impact of the assumptions.
Summary of Chapter 9
This chapter built upon the income capitalization and discounted cash flow concepts illustrated in previous
chapters, covering mortgage-equity and residual valuation techniques. These techniques isolate and
separately consider the components of real property investments, either equity and financing or land and
building. These techniques are not as commonly applied in day-to-day real estate practice as direct
capitalization or DCF, but they are helpful in certain situations and are therefore another tool that may be
applied by real estate practitioners in analyzing complex investment scenarios.
With this chapter concluded, this ends our coverage in this course of the techniques that specifically relate to
the valuation of single properties. The final three chapters will examine other related real estate investment
considerations, including risk analysis, portfolio issues, and the different ownership vehicles that can be used
real estate investments.
9.43
Chapter 9
APPENDIX 9.1
The Modified Band of Investment à la Ellwood
This technique was introduced in 1959 by L.W. Ellwood: a very innovative chief appraiser of the New York
Life Insurance Company. His contribution has had a considerable influence on the appraising profession and
was remarkably modern on some aspects of financial theory.
Ellwood‘s pre-computed tables and his mortgage-equity capitalization rate were a practical breakthrough in
the pre-computer and pre-calculator days. Now the technique is less appealing but it still retains its
aficionados among the more traditional appraisers.
We have been through Akerson’s adaptation of Ellwood‘s method, thus the conceptual roadblocks have all
been removed and we only have to deal with different notations and a slightly different equation.
Let us first tackle Ellwood‘s notational jungle with the help of Table 9.12.
Table 9.12
Notational Equivalence
Ellwood Meaning
Y ke or EYR or IRRe The equity yield rate: an internal rate of return on the equity
I kd The annual mortgage rate
f The mortgage constant
f or 1/aÚm,kdá
M D/V The mortgage to value ratio
P (1 ! %OSB) The % of mortgage principal paid off at the end of the holding
price
app gHV Value appreciation (g is positive)
dep gHV Value depreciation (g is negative)
d NOI The expected net operating income
R R The capitalization rate
c = Y + P H 1/sÚn,Yá ! f
This coefficient is therefore the equity yield adjusted for the equity build-up and the mortgage payment. In
its most compact form the Ellwood‘s formula reads:
⎡ ⎛+ dep ⎞ ⎤
R = Y ! MC ⎢⎜ ⎟ (1 / s an, Y b) ⎥
⎣⎝ - app ⎠ ⎦
9.44
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
(1 ! %OSB)(1/sÚn,keá) ! [g H 1/sÚn,keá]
D D D
R= [ × f] + (1 − )k e !
V V V
We are back to our previous Akerson formula where an eventual depreciation is also considered (g can be a
positive or negative variable; if the property depreciates, g is negative, thus making this adjustment factor a
positive addition to R). Note carefully (it may still be counter intuitive) that you subtract the appreciation
adjustment factor (a smaller R implies a larger value) and you add the depreciation adjustment factor (a
larger R implies a smaller value).
With his formula Ellwood also provided a special set of pre-calculated tables for all the required factors
within a certain range of rates of returns and appreciation (depreciation) rates.
The following example will illustrate the step wise procedure for the use of Ellwood‘s Tables:
Hypotheses:
NOI = $32,250
D/V = 0.75
kd = 5.5% per annum, monthly compounding
m = 300 months
g = 0.15 (15% depreciation of the property)
ke = 0.11
You are required to find R, and then V from the Ellwood tables.
First, obtain from the Table the overall discount rate before depreciation or appreciation (circled). (See
sample page in Table 9.13).
$ Add (or subtract) the appreciation or depreciation factor calculated in step (5) to (from) the basic
rate to find the overall capitalization rate.
9.45
Chapter 9
$32,250
Market Value =
0.08067
= $399,776.87
On the basis of computational convenience, the use of Ellwood‘s tables can be ruled out despite their strong
nostalgic appeal. The tables are not always available when you need them, they are awkward to use, they
require interpolation for intermediate values of the variables, and may not cover the full range of variations.
Ellwood‘s Tables also do not apply directly to Canadian mortgages with semi-annual compounding.
The choice of the Ellwood or Akerson formula is a matter of personal taste. The two formulas require the
same calculations and they produce identical results. While Ellwood‘s formula has seniority, Akerson’s
formula has a pedagogical advantage.
9.46
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
Table 9.13
Ellwood’s Table
9.47
Chapter 9
APPENDIX 9.2
Discounted Cash Flow Mortgage-Equity Valuation: Calculation of Variables
This calculation represents the calculation of the mortgage constant. The mortgage constant is calculated in
two steps. First the present value of a $1 annuity is calculated (6.464). Then, the inverse of the present value
of a $1 annuity is taken in order to calculate the “mortgage constant”. In order to calculate the value of the
mortgage constant with this two step process, one would follow the calculator steps shown below:
Press Display Comments
1 P/YR 1
25 N 25 Amortization Period
15 I/YR 15 Rate on the Loan
1 + /- PMT -1 $1 Annuity
0 FV 0
PV 6.46414908527 PV of $1 Annuity
1 /x 0.15469940232 The “Mortgage Constant”
The inverse of the present value of a $1 annuity results in the mortgage constant, 0.15469940232.
Again, this equation is used to calculate the mortgage constant. Using a rate of j1 = 15% and annual
payments over 25 years, the mortgage constant, that is, the debt service (principal and interest) per period
on a loan of one dollar is 0.15469940232. In other words, a loan of $1 amortized over 25 years would
require annual payments of just over $0.15.
Press Display Comments
1 P/YR 1 Annual Payments
25 N 25 Amortization Period
15 I/YR 15 Rate on the Loan
1 + /- PV -1 $1 Loan
0 FV 0
PMT 0.15469940232 The “Mortgage Constant”
Therefore, the mortgage constant can be calculated in two different ways, both arriving at the same answer.
9.48
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
The calculation presented is the present value of a $1 annuity given the holding period and the expected
return on equity.
1 P/YR 1
8 N 8 Holding Period
18 I/YR 18 Expected Return on Equity
1 + /- PMT -1 $1 Annuity
0 FV 0
PV 4.07756575705 PV of $1 Annuity
The present value of a $1 annuity given the holding period and the expected return on equity is $4.08.
The calculation presented is the future value of a $1 annuity given the holding period and the expected return
on equity.
1 P/YR 1
15 N 15 Holding Period
6 I/YR 6 Expected Return on Equity
1 + /- PMT -1 $1 Annuity
0 PV 0
FV 23.275969885 FV of $1 Annuity
The future value of a $1 annuity given the holding period and the expected return on equity is $23.28.
Equation: %OSBn
This equation requires the calculation of the mortgage constant, that is, the debt service (principal and
interest) on a loan of one dollar per period. Next, the holding period must be used in order to calculate the
%OSBn.
9.49
Chapter 9
1 + /- PV -1 $1 Loan
0 FV 0
PMT 0.15469940232 The “Mortgage Constant”
8 N 8 Holding Period
FV 9.35492155 E-1 OSB of $1 loan after 8 years
9.50
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
APPENDIX 9.3
The Mortgage-Equity Capitalization Techniques:
An Indirect Estimation of Value
This ground is not totally uncharted: we were first exposed to a similar technique when we computed a
weighted average capitalization rate.
Table 9.14
The Weighted Average Capitalization Rate
Overall R
As we mentioned previously, this procedure applies only (as it does in corporate finance) to perpetual
investments. Specifically, it would apply to non-amortized debt (e.g., bonds) and to constant equity (i.e., the
case where the value of the property remains constant).
A look-alike approach has been developed to apply to more realistic real estate situations. In the so called
band of investment technique we explicitly recognize that mortgages are amortized but, in this simple form,
we still assume that the disposition value is equal to the initial value.
Let us again use our previous example for which we are only given the following information:
NOI = $6,000
D/V = 0.80
E/V = 0.20
kd = 0.15
m = 25 years
y = 13.12013%
A note of caution is warranted here. The rate of return (y) described here is the Equity Dividend Rate. In
this example, y represents the current before-tax cash flow dividend on the initial equity.
We want first to derive R, the overall capitalization rate, and then V, the appraised value, through the
familiar model:
NOI
V=
R
9.51
Chapter 9
The “Band of Investment” formula for R is a form of weighted average between the mortgage constant (f)
and the equity dividend yield (y):
R = [D/V H f] + [E/V H y]
R = 0.80 H 0.1546994 + 0.20 H 0.1312013
Mortgage Equity
Component of R Component of R
= 0.1499998 say, 0.15
NOI $6,000
Thus V = = = $40,000.00
R .15
Table 9.15
The Band of Investment R for the Swift Building
The reader should carefully compare Tables 9.14 and 9.15 and note that in Table 9.15 we use f, the
mortgage constant 1/aÚm,kdá, instead of kd, the mortgage rate. The use of the mortgage constant is required
here because the loan is amortized, i.e., some principal is repaid annually.
Surprisingly we found the same value of $40,000 from the “Band of Investment” as the one we obtained
previously from the DCF mortgage-equity despite the fact that we neglected the equity appreciation in the
Band of Investment computation of R. Is it so surprising? No, because in the computation of R we used y,
the equity dividend rate (13.12013%) whereas we used ke (the investment yield of 18%) in the DCF
method. 16 This is worth repeating ... and repeating again:
16
In fact you should be surprised: we must admit that the estimate of y is fudged. The rate of 13.12013% was not picked up from the thin air;
it was computed backward from the knowledge of ke. Clearly (try it) no other value of y would lead to the same result for V. The reader is
asked to perform the same technique in the assignments. Through this devious choice of hypotheses we hope to clarify the relationship
between y and ke. This is crucial for the understanding of the rest of this appendix.
9.52
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
y: the equity dividend rate (EDR) is the “short-term” annual return on the equity: = BTCF/E0
ke: the equity yield rate (EYR) is the “long-term” overall return on the equity; it includes the annual
return and the return from the increased equity. ke is the (internal) equity yield rate of return on the
equity:
BTER
E0 = ∑ BTCF t t +
(1+ k e ) (1+ k e ) t
In our example the ke of 18% reflects the increased value of the equity whereas y (of 13.12013%) does not.
Indeed we could write that:
⎛E⎞ ⎛E⎞
⎜ ⎟ y = ⎜ ⎟ k e ! (the adjustment for changes in equity)
V
⎝ ⎠ ⎝V⎠
and we would infer that y = ke only when the equity value remains constant.
In this ongoing argument we have been prudently vague about what we meant by changes in “Equity”. Did
we say how the adjustment occurs? No, we did not, because we still need some more time to develop some
other points.
What does happen to the investor’s initial equity? In our case it went from E0 (the downpayment of $8,000)
to BTER (the before tax equity reversion: $14,064.38) and we can further observe that this final equity
comes from two different sources.
Equity Build-up
From the equity build-up through the process of principal amortization. The outstanding balance on the
mortgage loan is reduced, yearly, by the annual principal repayment. In this example this equity build-up,
after eight years, is:
Since we want an annual measure of the adjustment factor we can transform this future value of the change
in equity (a value to be recovered in 8 years) into an annuity: a sinking fund annuity accumulated at the
investor’s expected return on equity ke. Thus, in dollar terms the annuity equivalent to the total principal
paid would be:
9.53
Chapter 9
Calculations
1 P/YR 1
8 N 8 Amortization Period
0 PV 0
Graphically, the equity build-up due to principal repayment could be represented, in dollars terms as:
Accumulation at ke = 0.18
Since we do not know the absolute values of V and D, but only their ratio D/V, we can finally write the
required annuity adjustment factor as:
Appreciation
The second reason why the equity has increased is that the property has appreciated over the holding period.
This appreciation is $4,000 in our example.
9.54
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
Appreciation = REVn ! V0
= $44,000 ! $40,000
= $4,000
Appreciation = g H V0
= 0.10 H $40,000
= $4,000
Here again we can turn this future value of appreciation (to be recovered in 8 years) into another sinking
fund annuity accumulated at ke.
In dollars terms we may thus notionally consider that the investor receives annually:
And, once more since in a typical appraisal problem we do not know V, the necessary adjustment factor will
simply read:
We can thus write, generally, that the residual equity of BTERn is composed of the initial equity, the equity
build-up and the building appreciation.
9.55
Chapter 9
A final graphic representation should reinforce the concept; again here, for illustration purposes, we assume
that the value of the property is known. Usually this value is of course the unknown but we know how to
transform our expressions into percentage terms. The reader should also mentally transform the appreciation
and equity build-up curves into regular flows of annuities.
Figure 9.2
Value of the Property
In most applications the final equity is increased because part of the loan is repaid (equity build-up) and
because the property value increases (appreciation). In some cases though, the final equity may increase
even when the property value drops as long as the equity build-up more than compensates for the property
depreciation.
Clearly the final equity may also decline when the equity build-up is negative (a refinancing situation) and/or
when the property value drops. The reader must satisfy himself that the general formulation still applies to
these situations but that the adjustment factors will have different signs. Any increase in value should be
reflected by a lower R (remember V = NOI/R) and thus by negative adjustment factors. Whereas any
decrease in value is reflected by a higher R and thus by positive adjustment factors.
Back from this long detour to our adjustment problem. We had (in case you forgot) an innocuous little
formula:
⎛E⎞ ⎛E⎞
⎜ ⎟ y = ⎜ ⎟ k e ! (the adjustment for changes in equity variation)
⎝V⎠ ⎝V⎠
9.56
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
we can verify: 17
E E ⎡D ⎤
Hy = H ke ! ⎢ (1 − 0.9355)(0.0652)+ g(0.0652) ⎥
V V ⎣V ⎦
V⎡D ⎤
y = 0.18 ! (1 − 0.9355)(0.0652)+ g(0.0652) ⎥
E ⎢⎣ V ⎦
y = 0.1306
These adjustment factors will now be used to amend our capitalization rate in two different presentations of
the same general technique: the modified Band of Investment. This “modification” (or adjustment) being
simply the replacement of y in the Band of Investment equation by the equivalent: (E/V)ke ! equity
adjustment factors.
Readers will recall that the standard “Band of Investment” capitalization rate was a weighted average of the
mortgage constant (f) and the equity dividend rate (y).
R = [D/V H f] + [E/V H y]
We spent the best of the last few pages to convince the reader that the same R could also be obtained using
ke instead of y. The adjustment process follows the path first suggested by C. B. Akerson who wanted to
make more intuitive sense out of Ellwood‘s formula which is seen in Appendix 9.1.
⎡ 1 ⎤ ⎡ g ⎤
R = [D/ V× f] + [E/ V× k e] ! ⎢D/ V(1 − %OSB n ) × ⎥ ! ⎢ ⎥
⎣⎢ s an, k e b ⎦⎥ ⎢⎣ s an, k e b ⎦⎥
17
Since the capitalization rate R has been rounded to 15% in the previous computations, the other factors are now rounded accordingly to
derive the value of y. Rounding must be consistent, otherwise small rounding errors compound. In practice, extreme accuracy is neither
required nor logically justified since we deal with inexact estimates of the different rates.
18
Charles B. Akerson, “Ellwood Without Algebra”, The Appraisal Journal, Vol. 38, July 1970, p. 327.
19
In the case of property which has depreciated, g is a negative number and the adjustment factor (g / sÚn, keá) will be a positive addition
to R.
9.57
Chapter 9
NOI $6,000
V= = = $40,000
R 0.15
Table 9.16
The Akerson’s R for the Swift Building
With such error-prone type of computations, a numerical verification is highly recommended. Two possible
checking procedures can be chosen.
$ We can fall back on R using “y” through the simple band of investment method; or
$ We can fall back on V directly using the discounted cash flow mortgage-equity model.
$6, 000
and R=
$40, 000
= 15%
Therefore,
where y = BTCF/E
= (NOI ! PMT)/E
= 0.1312 or 13.12%
Therefore, y . 0.13
9.58
Mortgage-Equity and Residual Valuation Techniques
V = $40,000
This “verification” should, once more, convince the reader that the three approaches (DCF, Band of
Investment R, Akerson’s Modified Band of Investment R) are perfectly equivalent. A fourth approach, the
Modified Band of Investment à la Ellwood, requires the same calculations and produces identical results to
Akerson’s Modified Band of Investment R. This approach was further discussed in Appendix 9.1.
9.59