Tajikistan 2022: Energy Sector Review

Co-funded by
the European Union
Tajikistan 2022
Energy Sector Review
Co-funded by
the European Union
Tajikistan 2022
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FOREWORD
Foreword
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is renowned for its energy policy review and
guidance for its member countries and beyond since 1976, with the latest trends focusing
on the countries’ key energy transition and security challenges.
Tajikistan is one of the focus countries of the EU4Energy programme, which is being
implemented by the IEA and the European Union along with the Energy Community
Secretariat and the Energy Charter Secretariat.
The other EU4Energy focus countries are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. The
programme is designed to support the goals and aspirations of its 11 focus countries to
implement sustainable energy policies and foster co-operation on energy sector
development. As part of this programme, the IEA conducts energy data, policy and sector
reviews of each focus country, updating and extending the analysis contained in the IEA’s
2015 regional review, Energy Policies Beyond IEA Countries: Eastern Europe, Caucasus
and Central Asia.
Tajikistan is endowed with abundant water resources and relies almost exclusively on
hydro for electricity generation. Electricity is an integral part of Tajikistan’s economy, and
its energy policy continues to focus primarily on alleviating annual winter shortages and
providing the population with uninterrupted access to energy since its independence. The
country’s approach to mitigating its recurrent energy crisis has varied over the decades,
depending on regional dynamics, and like its neighbours, remains affected by the breakup
of Soviet-era regional interconnections and energy trade mechanisms that prioritised water
use for irrigation on a regional level.
The government of Tajikistan has made commendable efforts in pursuing an ambitious
national energy sector agenda, including the installation of additional generation capacity
and upgrading aged energy infrastructure with the help of international donors and
financial institutions as well as enhancing regional co-operation, reconnecting with regional
economies and participating in large-scale regional projects. Noteworthy developments
are the completion of the Sangtuda hydropower plants (900 megawatts), the continued
construction of the Rogun hydropower plant, and the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity
Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000), which aims to help Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan export surplus summer electricity to the neighbouring countries of Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Enhanced cross-border trade would allow
Tajikistan to balance supply and demand despite the seasonal fluctuations of its
hydropower-dominated electricity generation. The National Development Strategy through
2030 sets ambitious goals for energy sector development and plays an important role in
the country’s desired level of industrialisation, sustainable development and green growth.
The key to reaching the goals set by the Strategy through 2030 remains the successful
implementation of ongoing energy sector reforms, aimed at unbundling the vertically
integrated state monopolies and setting up an independent regulator to attract private-
sector investment and increase efficiencies. This report backs the transformation of
Tajikistan’s energy system, which is capable of achieving energy sector development
goals that will provide affordable, secure and clean energy for its population and
IEA. All rights reserved.
neighbouring markets, while contributing to the region’s energy transition and climate
change goals.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ENERGY INSIGHTS
Foreword..............................................................................................................................3
1. Executive summary .....................................................................................................11
Key policy directions ..........................................................................................................14
Progress to date ................................................................................................................15
Challenges ahead..............................................................................................................16
Key recommendations .......................................................................................................17
2. General energy policy .................................................................................................19
Country overview ...............................................................................................................19
Energy security ..................................................................................................................21
Energy supply and demand...............................................................................................22
Energy production and domestic supply ...........................................................................23
Energy consumption ..........................................................................................................25
Energy sector governance ................................................................................................26
Energy statistics ................................................................................................................27
Energy efficiency Indicators ..............................................................................................28
Energy data management and use ...................................................................................28
Assessment .......................................................................................................................29
Recommendations.............................................................................................................31
ENERGY SECURITY
3. Electricity......................................................................................................................35
Overview ............................................................................................................................35
Supply and demand...........................................................................................................36
Capacity .............................................................................................................................36
Generation .........................................................................................................................38
Consumption......................................................................................................................40
Imports and exports ...........................................................................................................41
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Sector structure .................................................................................................................42
Market reforms...................................................................................................................43
Policy framework ...............................................................................................................44
Infrastructure investments and cross-border trade ...........................................................44
Security of supply ..............................................................................................................46
System integration of renewable energy ...........................................................................46
Prices and tariffs ................................................................................................................47
Assessment .......................................................................................................................48
4. Coal ...............................................................................................................................53
Overview ............................................................................................................................53
Resources..........................................................................................................................54
Coal mining policy .............................................................................................................57
Sector structure .................................................................................................................57
R&D and technology development....................................................................................58
Assessment .......................................................................................................................58
5. Gas ................................................................................................................................63
Overview ............................................................................................................................63
Exploration and production/upstream ...............................................................................65
Gas transportation and transit infrastructure .....................................................................65
Gas market structure .........................................................................................................65
Institutional and regulatory framework ..............................................................................65
Assessment .......................................................................................................................66
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
6. District heating ............................................................................................................69
Overview ............................................................................................................................69
Generation .........................................................................................................................70
District heating infrastructure modernisation .....................................................................71
Regulation and prices ........................................................................................................73
Assessment .......................................................................................................................73
7. Oil ..................................................................................................................................77
Overview ............................................................................................................................77
Oil market structure ...........................................................................................................80
Assessment .......................................................................................................................81
8. Energy, environment and climate change ................................................................85
Overview ............................................................................................................................85
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion ................................................................................86
Institutional framework.......................................................................................................89
Climate change policy .......................................................................................................90
Mitigation ...........................................................................................................................91
Adaptation..........................................................................................................................92
Energy and environment ...................................................................................................94
Air quality ...........................................................................................................................94
Assessment .......................................................................................................................94
9. Energy efficiency .........................................................................................................99

Energy consumption ..........................................................................................................99
Trends by sector ............................................................................................................. 101
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Policies and measures ................................................................................................... 104
Legislative framework ..................................................................................................... 105
Institutional framework.................................................................................................... 105
Financing and cross-cutting measures .......................................................................... 108
Assessment .................................................................................................................... 108
Recommendations.......................................................................................................... 109
10. Renewable energy .................................................................................................. 111
Overview ......................................................................................................................... 111
Supply ............................................................................................................................. 111
Renewable electricity generation ................................................................................... 113
Policies and measures ................................................................................................... 116
Assessment .................................................................................................................... 116
11. Energy research, development and demonstration .......................................... 119
Overview ......................................................................................................................... 119
Legal and institutional basis ........................................................................................... 119
Funding ........................................................................................................................... 120
Private-sector involvement ............................................................................................. 120
Assessment .................................................................................................................... 121
ANNEXES
ANNEX A: Review criteria and acknowledgements ....................................................... 125
ANNEX B: Energy balances and key statistical data ..................................................... 126
ANNEX C: International Energy Agency Shared Goals................................................. 130
ANNEX D: Glossary and list of abbreviations ................................................................ 132

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES AND BOXES
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Figures
Figure 2.1 Map of Tajikistan.........................................................................................20
Figure 2.2 Overview of Tajikistan’s energy system by fuel and sector, 2020 .............23
Figure 2.3 Primary energy production by source, 2000-2020 .....................................23
Figure 2.4 Self-sufficiency (production/TES) by energy source, 2000-2020...............24
Figure 2.5 Total energy supply by source, 2000-2020 ................................................24
Figure 2.6 Breakdown of total energy supply in selected countries, 2019 ..................25
Figure 2.7 Total final consumption by sector, 2000-2020 ...........................................26
Figure 2.8 Total final consumption by source and sector, 2020..................................26
Figure 3.1 Figure 3.1 Tajikistan’s electricity supply, 2000-2020 .................................36

Figure 3.2 Electricity generation by source, 2020 .......................................................38
Figure 3.3 Electricity generation by source, 2000-2020 ..............................................38
Figure 3.4 Electricity generation by source in selected countries, 2019 .....................39
Figure 3.5 Electricity consumption by sector, 2000-2020............................................40
Figure 3.6 Tajikistan’s monthly electricity supply, January 2012-January 2022 .........40
Figure 3.7 Tajikistan’s electricity trade, 2000-2020 .....................................................41
Figure 3.8 Tajikistan’s net electricity exports by country, 2016-2021..........................41
Figure 3.9 Map of regional electricity interconnections ...............................................45
Figure 4.1 Share of coal in Tajikistan’s energy system, 1990-2020............................54

Figure 4.2 Tajikistan’s coal production, 2000-2020 .....................................................55
Figure 4.3 Tajikistan’s hard coal trade, 2017-2020 .....................................................56
Figure 4.4 Coal demand by sector, 2000-2020 ...........................................................56
Figure 5.1 Share of natural gas in Tajikistan’s energy system, 1990 2020 ................63
Figure 5.2 Natural gas supply by source, 2000 2020 ..................................................64
Figure 5.3 Natural gas consumption by sector, 2009 2020 .........................................64
Figure 6.1 Heat generation by source, 2000-2020 ......................................................70
Figure 7.1 Share of oil in Tajikistan’s energy system, 1990-2020...............................78

Figure 7.2 Tajikistan’s oil product imports by country, 2010-2020 ..............................79
Figure 7.3 Oil consumption by sector, 2000-2020 .......................................................79
Figure 7.4 Oil consumption by product, 2000-2020 ....................................................80
Figure 7.5 Transport fuel prices in selected countries, 2020 ......................................80
Figure 7.6 Main transport fuel prices in Tajikistan, 2010-2019 ...................................81
Figure 8.1 Tajikistan’s greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990-2030 ..................87

Figure 8.2 Tajikistan’s CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by sector, 1990-2020 ...87
Figure 8.3 Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers in Tajikistan,
2000-2020 ...................................................................................................88
Figure 8.4 CO2 intensity in Tajikistan and selected countries, 2019 ...........................88
Figure 8.5 CO2 intensity in Tajikistan and selected countries, 2000-2019..................89
Figure 8.6 CO2 intensity of power and heat generation in Tajikistan ..............................
and selected countries, 2000-2019 ............................................................89
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Figure 9.1 Total final consumption by sector, 2000-2020 ........................................ 100

Figure 9.2 Total final consumption by source and sector, 2020............................... 100
Figure 9.3 Drivers for energy consumption and energy intensity, 2000-2020 ......... 101
Figure 9.4 Total final consumption in the industrial sector by source, 2010-2020 ... 102
Figure 9.5 Share of consumption in manufacturing industries by activity, 2020 ...... 102
Figure 9.6 Total final consumption in transport sector by fuel, 2012-2020 .............. 103
Figure 9.7 Total final consumption in residential sector by source, 2010-2020 ....... 103
Figure 10.1 Renewable energy shares in Tajikistan’s energy system, 1990-2020.... 112
Figure 10.2 Renewable energy in Tajikistan’s total energy supply, 2000-2020 ......... 112
Figure 10.3 Renewable energy share of total energy supply in selected countries,
2019 ......................................................................................................... 113
Figure 10.4 Renewable energy in Tajikistan’s electricity generation, 2000-2020 ...... 113
Figure 10.5 Renewable energy share in electricity generation in selected ......................
countries, 2019 ........................................................................................ 114
Tables
Table 3.1 Generation capacity in Tajikistan, 2020 .....................................................37
Table 3.2 General characteristics of power plants in Tajikistan .................................39
Table 3.3 Tariffs for electricity and heat .....................................................................47
Table 6.1 Dushanbe heat supply ................................................................................71
Table 9.1 Resource consumption in Tajik households by type, 2016 ..................... 104
Table 10.1 Consumption of energy resources in Tajikistan households, 2016 ......... 112
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ENERGY INSIGHTS
1. Executive summary
The Republic of Tajikistan (Tajikistan) is home to over 9.9 million people, over 70% of
whom live in rural areas with their main source of income from agriculture – the country’s
largest sector. Tajikistan gained independence in September 1991, which was shortly
followed by a five-year civil war, from May 1992 to June 1997. The decade after the civil
war saw strong economic growth, with measurable progress in reducing poverty and
expanding the economy. However, Tajikistan’s rate of job creation has not kept pace with
its growing population, leaving the economy vulnerable to external shocks. The National
Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the Period up to 2030 (the Strategy
2030) aims to increase domestic incomes by up to 3.5 times and to reduce poverty by half
by the year 2030. This is achievable if Tajikistan succeeds in transforming its present
growth model and offers the private sector increased opportunities to invest, create jobs
and contribute to innovation and growth.
With abundant water potential from its rivers, natural lakes and glaciers, Tajikistan is
almost exclusively reliant on hydro for electricity generation. It has some of the world’s
largest hydropower plants (HPPs): the Nurek HPP, commissioned in 1972, and Rogun
HPP, currently under construction. Although Tajikistan is ranked eighth in the world for
hydropower potential with an estimate of 527 terawatt-hours (TWh), the country’s current
hydro potential is only exploited at approximately 4%. The challenge to successful
economic management is Tajikistan’s high vulnerability to climate change and natural
disasters. Just in the 25 years between 1992 and 2016, natural and climate-related
disasters have affected an estimated 7 million of the country’s people and caused gross
domestic product (GDP) losses of around USD 1.8 billion.
Electricity is an integral part of Tajikistan’s economy, and providing a clean, affordable and
secure supply of electricity has been of paramount importance for the government since
independence. Despite its energy potential, Tajikistan’s energy sector is susceptible to
supply shocks. The country’s dependence on electricity generation from HPPs makes it
prone to seasonal electricity shortages due to water level fluctuations in hydropower
reservoirs, leaving an estimated 1 million people without reliable electricity supply during
the winter months. While Tajikistan has been successful in providing universal access to
electricity, the existing systems of its energy infrastructure function inefficiently. The large
majority of hydro plants were built in the Soviet era and are ageing and require
rehabilitation. Losses caused by the poor quality of the country’s transmission and
distribution systems have averaged 15.5% for the last two decades, in comparison,
average losses in IEA member countries were below 7% of supply, and saw a steady
decline in the same period. Meanwhile, Tajikistan’s non-domestic sector experiences an
average of six power outages per month.
Energy policy priorities in Tajikistan are aimed primarily at alleviating annual winter
shortages and providing the population with uninterrupted access to energy. The country’s
approach to its energy crisis has been variable, depending on the political situation and
11
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
relationships with its neighbours. At present, the government plans to diversify energy
sources (including by introducing non-hydro renewable energy), to rehabilitate and
modernise existing energy infrastructure, and to increase energy saving as well as regional
integration.
Tajikistan’s connection to the Central Asia Power System (CAPS) was cut off in 2009 as
a result of Uzbekistan’s disconnection from the system, and gas supplies from Uzbekistan
also ceased in 2013, amplifying the country’s concern’s regarding steady energy supplies.
This threatened the country’s energy security even further, forcing the government to
internalise its energy policy and consider developing domestic energy resources, including
coal, and to increase cooperation with other neighbours. From 2018 the export of natural
gas from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan was restarted along with the export of Tajik electricity to
Uzbekistan, and both countries are currently working on reconnecting Tajikistan’s energy
system to CAPS, with completion expected in 2023.
Energy security remains a national priority, and one of the government’s prime aims to
achieve this is by increasing electricity generation capacity to power industrial
development, particularly aluminium production, and increase electricity exports. Central
to achieving the aims of the Strategy 2030 is the Rogun HPP project, the construction of
a 3 600-megawatt (MW) plant at a cost of almost USD 4 billion that is expected to be
completed and commissioned by 2032. The project will make a significant contribution to
the strategy’s goal of poverty reduction and growth through reducing energy shortages
and increasing hydropower exports. However, construction on such a scale creates social
and economic risks including community displacement, changes in hydrological flow
regimes and its impacts on livelihoods and wildlife habitats, which will have to be managed
by the government in order to avoid instability.
Another aim is the diversification of electricity sources away from HPPs, which currently
generate 90% of electricity. Other options for increased capacity, as indicated in the
Strategy 2030, are renewables (solar, wind) and coal-fired power plants. Tajikistan’s
mineral resource endowment has not been fully assessed and its coal, oil and gas deposits
are estimated to be moderate. Oil and gas production remains modest, and almost all the
country’s oil and gas needs for both residential and industrial uses are satisfied by imports.
Coal mining, on the other hand, has been on the rise and it has seen a tenfold production
increase in the last decade, reaching 2.1 million tonnes (Mt) of coal production in 2020.
Coal has become a significant source of district heating in Dushanbe, following the
commissioning of the Dushanbe-2 co-generation1 plant, and further projects coal use in
the district heating sector have been announced. Utilising Tajikistan’s unexploited natural
resources to meet energy security concerns and aiding the country’s industrial
development are the main drivers for the country’s focus on coal sector development. The
Strategy 2030 sets ambitious targets for coal production, reaching 10.4 Mt to 15.1 Mt by
2030.
Current and planned energy investments are in line with the government’s strategies to
increase the capacity of renewables for electricity generation. Hydropower accounts for
90% of electricity generation projects (or 9.2 gigawatts [GW]), while coal-fired electric
power plants are only 6% of the total electricity generation projects. These combined
projects would significantly help to offet the winter shortages and to reduce the energy
supply imbalances between the summer and winter months. They would also contribute
1 Co-generation refers to the combined production of heat and power.
12
to the Strategy 2030’s target to increase electricity generation from 17.1 TWh in 2015 to
ENERGY INSIGHTS
26.2 TWh in 2020, and 40.7 TWh to 45 TWh in 2030.
The government supports the development of renewable energy resources, which it

considers environmentally friendly, and provides a range of financial and regulatory
incentives. These measures are listed in various legal and regulatory acts, including the
Renewable Energy Law and the Tax Code. These measures, however, have been
insufficient for stimulating market formation. Lack of financing has held back the promotion
of energy-efficient and renewable energy technology deployment in the power or heating
sectors. Among key impediments for the sector’s inability to attract investments are below-
cost-recovery tariffs for electricity and heat and low revenue collection. Other factors are
related to underdeveloped institutional capacity; absence of support mechanisms; and lack
of awareness and knowledge within the industry, small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
and the general population.
The country’s potential for energy efficiency gains also remains largely untapped, and
although progress is evident in developing energy efficiency policies and related legal and
regulatory measures, in the building sector in particular, the available evidence suggests
that existing rules are poorly implemented and enforced. A market for energy services and
energy service companies (ESCOs) does not currently exist in Tajikistan. Minimum energy
performance standards (MEPS) and other policies designed to improve the energy
efficiency of appliances and energy-using equipment, including lighting, are partially
adopted, and there is a need to develop a more comprehensive demand-side energy
efficiency policy framework. The potential for efficiency gains in the industry and transport
sectors is substantial as consumption continues to grow significantly, and responsibilities
for enforcing energy efficiency policies and measures fall under multiple agencies and
public bodies. The government’s attempts to establish a dedicated public body dealing
with energy efficiency and renewable energy market developments have failed on
numerous occasions, due to the scarcity of public financing available for creating a
dedicated fund to move these sectors forward.
The Strategy 2030, as well as water and energy sector policies and measures deriving
from it, consider energy- and water-related research, development and deployment
(RD&D) as the key to sustainable deployment and green growth; however, the financial
support to these research fields remains considerably small. The government, however,
encourages donor and private-sector participation in this field and continues to work
closely with international partners, promoting the adoption of modern innovative
technologies where possible.
There are a number of large-scale regional projects where Tajikistan is a participant country.
The Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000),
funded by the World Bank, is a major project which aims to help Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
export summer surplus electricity to the neighbouring countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is expected that CASA-1000, when operational, will integrate
the electrical networks of Central and South Asia, allowing Tajikistan to benefit from
increased electricity exports that will encourage further development.
Tajikistan is also a partner in wider regional projects for the development of oil and gas
pipelines and electricity transmission, such as Line D of the Central Asia-China gas pipeline,
one of the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) megaprojects in the world, with major funding
from the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) at a projected cost of USD 3 billion.
13
Tajikistan signed and ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) in 1998 as a Non-Annex I (or non-industrialised) country. The country
also signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2008 and the Paris Agreement in 2016/17. It
reports on its commitments on a biennial basis, and its Fourth National Communication
was approved in December 2021.
Tajikistan has been improving energy statistics data management and use over the past
decades, as its Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan (TajStat)
works in close co-operation with regional and international partners enhancing data quality
and reporting obligations. However, further human and financial resources are required for
the agency to foster climate and demand-side data collection and development of energy
efficiency indicators for sound policy making and tracking progress.
Key policy directions

The development of the country’s energy sector is based on the Strategy 2030, which all
other strategies and programmes must conform to. According to the Strategy 2030, the
most significant general problems faced by the energy sector are the inefficient
management of natural resources, resulting in higher environmental capacity of production
(i.e. too many natural resources are being used in industry), environmental pollution and
high production losses, especially in electricity generation, and insufficient electricity
supply during the autumn and winter due to reduced water flow.
Specific priorities in the energy sector include ensuring access to a reliable supply of
energy for all the population, particularly in the rural areas, through the effective use of
domestic energy resources. This implies making hydropower the foundation of the
economy and exploiting its potential to reduce poverty, provide social benefits and promote
development of other sectors of the economy. Further development of small hydropower
and other renewable energy sources (RES) is therefore envisioned, as is small business
development. Another aim is to make Tajikistan, as a regional and world leader in potential
stocks of hydropower, a model for its efficient development and use. It is hoped that a
combination of power diplomacy and market mechanisms will attract the attention of
foreign markets.
Energy security concerns led the government to turn to domestic coal development to
account for future energy supply shortages, following severe winter energy crises in 2007-
2008. While initially aimed at alleviating winter electricity and heat shortages, further
disconnections from regional electricity and natural gas networks have also made it an
ultimate alternative to natural gas use in the industry sector. The government therefore
has created favourable conditions for sector development and incentivised industries to
move to using domestic coal. This was further emphasised following the government’s
focus on national industrialisation, elaborated in a range of sectoral development
programmes, including the Strategy 2030 and the Concept of Coal Industry Development
for the Period up to 2040. Strategic policy priorities are focused on improving, modernising
and expanding fixed industrial assets that are necessary in order to sustainably develop
priority areas of economic security and the rational and effective use of the country’s rich
mineral resources.
Tajikistan aims to undertake several primary activities to reach these aims. It will promote
its national interests as energy flows in Central and South Asia are optimised under the
14
CASA-1000 project, by developing its hydropower potential, restoring existing energy
ENERGY INSIGHTS
infrastructure and creating new infrastructure, and ensuring its effectiveness through
economic and technological integration with regional energy systems. It will also develop
legislation and regulations for energy saving and energy efficiency, and will stimulate
modernisation and innovation in technology, promoting energy- and resource-saving
technologies. Energy industry development will be based on diversifying fuel sources to
smooth seasonal fluctuations in generation, and the electricity network will be modernised
to reduce losses, increase energy supply reliability and expand opportunities to use a
range of renewables.
Results anticipated by 2030 are:

 Development of the electricity sector according to a 10-10-10-10 concept: 1) installed
capacity increased to 10 GW; 2) annual electricity exports boosted to 10 TWh; 3) electric
power system capacity diversified by at least 10% through increased use of coal, oil, gas
and RES other than hydro; and 4) electricity system losses reduced to 10%.
 Domestic power diversification based on coal and oil; creation of gas subsystems and
development of RES.
 Highly reliable power supply for all citizens and industry; end of seasonal deficiencies.
 Increased energy efficiency and control in all sectors of the economy through
implementation of energy saving technologies and efficiency measures; provision of
500 million kWh of electric power to the economy guaranteed annually.
 Engagement of adequately trained personnel for modern power and industrial
management.
 Financial stability and transparency of the energy sector and increased investment appeal.
 Optimised fuel-energy balance owing to reduced energy resource imports and greater
energy production from solar, wind, biological and geothermal sources.
According to the Strategy 2030, the energy and transport sectors need to become the
primary drivers of national economic growth. The government has therefore initiated tariff
increases for the past few years and has been phasing out cross-subsidisation. Tariffs still
remain among the lowest in the Central Asian region, and the government will continue to
raise them until they reach cost-reflective levels.
Progress to date
The government has been relaxing legislative and bureaucratic requirements for investors
and has introduced green tariffs for small HPPs and purchase obligations for the state-
owned utility Barqi Tojik. This has resulted in a surge in small HPP construction since
2007, with capacity reaching more than 130 MW (exceeding the projected level). While
demand for small HPPs continues, negligible progress has been made in developing solar
and wind energy.
In the electricity sector, the largest projects are the Rogun HPP on the Vakhsh River and
the CASA-1000 project, a 500 kilovolt (kV) transmission line connecting Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Rogun HPP, which will produce 3.6 GW at
peak capacity and entirely eliminate winter shortages, was deemed feasible in 2014 and
construction recommenced in 2016. The considerably higher electricity production when

the first units come online will not only cover domestic demand but will also permit
15
increased electricity exports to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and possibly northward

exports to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
The government has also invested in the new Dushanbe-2 thermal power plant (TPP)
(400 MW) and has updated heat supply pipelines in Dushanbe to reduce winter deficits
and increase energy capacity. It has secured investments from the World Bank, the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European
Investment Bank (EIB) to reduce losses in the energy sector, particularly for the installation
of smart meters in Dushanbe and Khujand.
Coal production has grown significantly since 2007 and is set to continue to grow as the
government rehabilitates TPPs and builds new coal-fired generation. Additionally, the
government has encouraged industries to switch from natural gas and oil to coal, resulting
in strong demand and high year-on-year production growth.
Tajikistan is part of the gas pipeline route from Turkmenistan to China (Line D). The
construction phase of this project has not yet begun, and negotiations among project
countries continue. The new infrastructure would allow Tajikistan to export gas to China,
and, according to the Tajik government, a number of private investors have shown interest
in developing oil and gas production in the country in recent years.
In 2016, Tajikistan began preparation of its Fourth National Communication of the Republic
of Tajikistan under the UNFCCC with assistance from the UN Development Programme
(UNDP). This report was prepared based on the results of the Paris Agreement, and was
formally approved in 2021.
Challenges ahead
Specific challenges facing Tajikistan’s energy sector include the isolation of its energy
supply system from those of other Central Asian countries, resulting in seasonal electricity
deficiency and limited energy export potential, which has destabilised the country’s energy
and economic security. The World Bank estimates that Tajikistan’s restricted electricity
supply costs the country USD 200 million annually. The consequences of an unreliable
energy supply are far-reaching: it is a barrier to attracting new customers; local energy
resources are used inefficiently to make up the seasonal deficit of electricity; energy
efficiency of production and consumption are low; the legal and regulatory framework for
the energy industry lacks effectiveness; disproportionately low electricity tariffs are a
barrier to the development of private business and favour expansion of a shadow
economy, and do not encourage energy saving or efficiency; and weak diversification of
generating sources (HPPs account for more than 90% of the general rated capacity of
power plants) impairs the economic viability of solar, wind and biomass energy production.
As the economy’s backbone, the energy sector is facing a number of challenges, most
pressing of which are obsolete generation, transmission and distribution capacities which
cannot be upgraded or replaced due to a lack of financing caused by low electricity tariffs
and poor revenue collection. In April 2019, the government announced the Action Plan for
Financial Recovery of Barqi Tojik (the state-owned utility), detailing plans for the
unbundling of Barqi Tojik and establishing the Electricity Regulatory Authority, with a
gradual increase of electricity tariffs with the aim of reaching a full cost recovery tariff by
2025.
16
The Government Decree No. 330 from June 2019 further detailed steps for energy sector
ENERGY INSIGHTS
reforms, based on which Barqi Tojik remains responsible for power generation while
electricity transmission assets are transferred to the newly created Shabakahoi Intiqoli
Barq and distribution assets go to the new Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq. Although
unbundled, Barqi Tojik’s low institutional capacity combined with the lack of attractiveness
to private investors of the existing legal and regulatory framework pose major obstacles to
creating a significant level of openness for trade in services and investment in the energy
market. The government continues work to further amend the legal and regulatory
framework to reflect the new business structure of the power sector and to advance steps
establishing an independent energy regulator.
As a net oil importer, Tajikistan is highly exposed to oil supply disruptions. It does not
appear to hold emergency oil stocks or related reporting mechanisms at present and would
greatly benefit from building stocks to counter potential supply disruptions. It would also
benefit from having a monitoring system in place, which would help the country take the
necessary actions rapidly in case of supply disruptions and mitigate shocks to the
economy.
Key recommendations
The government of Tajikistan should:
 Advance energy sector reforms, including restructuring of the state-owned electric
utility Barqi Tojik, establishing an independent regulator, gradually increasing
electricity and heat tariffs to full cost recovery levels and removing energy subsidies
and moving to targeted social support for the most vulnerable.
 Continue encouraging cross-border electricity trading to optimise resource use and
enhance energy security.
 Ensure that coal mining and coal-based industrial developments comply with best
practice for environmental liability and adhere to the highest environmental and safety
standards in all coal-fired generation and coal-based industrial developments.
 Consolidate and co-ordinate policies in the areas of district heating and cooling, oil,
natural gas, coal, and energy efficiency fields, and support the development and
demonstration of efficient, integrated systems to supply heating, cooling and electricity
(trigeneration).
 Consider holding emergency oil stocks, with necessary legal and regulatory
framework, including requirements for regular emergency response exercises to test
system responsiveness in case of supply disruption.
 Enhance official energy statistics management and use as the basis of strategic policy
directions and measuring progress. Support TajStat to increase data disaggregation
and accuracy of energy end uses and to further align the production and dissemination
of official energy statistics with international recommendations.
 Encourage closer co-operation between the greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory

compiler and TajStat to further improve energy-related GHG reporting and analysis
and the underlying energy statistics.
17
 Develop a more comprehensive demand-side energy efficiency policy framework,

including building codes, passenger vehicle fuel efficiency standards, MEPS and
labelling for appliances and energy-using equipment, and well-enforced audit
requirements for industry.
 Foster using incentives for small renewable energy suppliers to encourage
entrepreneurship and the establishment of small businesses in the energy sector.
 Create a designated entity in charge of energy-efficient and renewable energy market
development.
 Formulate an integrated energy research and development (R&D) strategy based on
close co-ordination with the Academy of Sciences and its public research institutions,
relevant ministries, national enterprises, SMEs, international financial institutions
(IFIs), and other bilateral or multilateral donors in the energy sector.
18
ENERGY INSIGHTS
2. General energy policy
Key data
(2020)
Total energy supply (TES)*: 3.7 Mtoe (hydro 39.1%, oil 29.4%, coal 26.3%, natural gas
5.3%), +68.2% since 2010
TES per capita: 0.4 toe (world average 2019: 1.9 toe)
TES per unit of GDP: 105 toe/USD million PPP (world average 2019: 114 toe/USD million
PPP)
Energy production: 2.5 Mtoe (hydro 61.8%, coal 37.3%, oil 1.0%, natural gas 0.02%),
+63.6% since 2010
TFC: 3.1 Mtoe (electricity 42.8%, oil 34.4%, coal 16.2%, district heat 3.8%, natural gas 2.9%),
+57.9% since 2010
* excludes electricity trade; data not available for bioenergy (e.g. fuelwood)
Country overview
The Republic of Tajikistan is a landlocked country situated in the southeast of Central Asia.
The country covers an area of 141 400 square kilometres (km2) and it borders Kyrgyzstan
to the north (with a border of 988 kilometres [km]), China to the east (494 km), Afghanistan
to the south (1 372 km), and Uzbekistan to the north and west (1332 km). It is separated
narrowly from Pakistan by the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan.
The country is defined by an interconnecting system of three mountain ranges – the Pamir,
Hissor and Tian Shan ranges – constituting 93% of the total area and ranging from
300 metres (m) to 7 495 m above sea in altitude. Almost half of the territory is at an
elevation of 3 000 m. Seventy-two of Tajikistan’s mountains are 6 000 m above sea level
in altitude or higher. At 7 495 m, the highest is Ismoil Somoni Peak (Qullai Ismoili Somoni),
located in the Pamir Mountains. The country is prone to frequent earthquakes as it lies in
the active seismic belt that covers the entire southern Central Asia region. The mountain
peaks are covered with snow throughout the year, and along with ice and glaciers cover
8 476 km2 or about 6% of the country’s total area, storing an estimated 576 cubic km (km3)
of fresh water. Meltwater from snow and glaciers feeds the river system of the Aral Sea
Basin with a mean flow of 6 km3 to 13 km3 of fresh water per year, constituting
approximately 10-20% of the basin’s total river volume. Alpine lakes cover an area of over
680 km2, with most located in the eastern part of the Pamir Mountains. There are an
estimated 1 000 lakes, 80% of which lie at 3 000 m above sea level in altitude or higher.
19
2. GENERAL ENERGY POLICY
The west of Tajikistan constitutes foothills and steppe land while in the south-west and
north lie lowlands in river valleys, which include sections of the Fergana Valley, a fertile
region shared with the neighbouring countries of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Figure 2.1 Map of Tajikistan
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international
frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Tajikistan has a rich diversity of ecosystems, from hot, dry deserts to frozen mountains
and glaciers. As a result, the country is rich in biodiversity, with a wide variety of animal
and plant species. Flora varies by region, ranging from drought-tolerant grasses and low
shrubs in the steppes to dense forests of coniferous trees in the mountains.
Tajikistan’s climate is continental; however, the combination of varying elevations of the

terrain and complex topography results in local and regional climate zones with extreme
temperature differences, characterised by significant daily and seasonal fluctuations in
weather conditions. There is a wide range in annual precipitation: from less than
100 millimetres (mm) in the eastern portion of the Pamir Mountains to 500 mm to 600 mm
in the south in the Vakhsh River Valley to over 2 000 mm on the Fedchenko Glacier.
Tajikistan’s economy is highly agrarian, notably cotton, potatoes, wheat and horticulture,
and animal husbandry. Industry is less developed and includes mechanical engineering,
production of aluminium, cement and vegetable oil, mineral fertilisers, textile and light
industry, energy, and production of consumer goods. The country is rich in mineral
deposits and although mining activity has been disrupted in recent years, gold continues
to be mined. The region’s comparative remoteness and isolation, minimal transport
infrastructure, high-mountainous relief, and lack of access to the sea shape a largely
unfavourable economic and geographical position.
Total GDP for 2019 was USD 8.3 billion –GDP per capita of USD 900 – and breaks down
as follows: agriculture 20.9%, industry 21.2%, construction 11.7%, services 30%, transport
20
and communication 6.1%, and net product tax 9.8%. Public external debt reached
ENERGY INSIGHTS
USD 2.9 billion (40% of GDP) at the end of 2018 compared with 24% of GDP in 2014. The
rate of real GDP growth fell to 6.2% in 2019 from 7.3% in 2018, with a further slowdown to
5.5-5.0% between 2020 and 2021 due to the weakening of the Russian economy and the
negative impact of Covid-19 on world commodity prices. This has negatively affected
remittances from migrant workers, a significant contributor to the economy, and this flow
is expected to remain greatly reduced in the medium term during which the economy will
be supported mainly by mining, manufacturing and construction. Of the working age
population, 46% are in agriculture, 6.8% in industry, 8.6% in construction, 12.2% in trade
and services, 4.6% in public administration, 4.1% in health care, 8.1% in education, and
9.3% in other sectors such as finance, communications and science.
Tajikistan is one of the ten countries with the fastest rate of poverty reduction in the last
few decades – its poverty rate has fallen from 83% in 1999 to 26.3% in 2019, and the
extreme poverty rate fell from 73% to 10.7%. Data from 2003 to 2018 reveal that the factors
reducing poverty included wage increases, remittances from abroad and timely pension
payments. The World Bank’s Human Capital Index (HCI) for 2018 gives Tajikistan a world
ranking of 57th out of 130 countries with an HCI of 0.53 (the index ranges between 0 and
1), the Human Development Index (HDI) for 2020 places the country 125th out of 187
countries with an HDI of 0.668, and the Gender Inequality Index for 2019 places it at 70th
out of 162 countries, with a value of 0.314.
Energy security
Energy security in Tajikistan is critically unstable and therefore of central concern for the
government. The country relies on hydropower for nearly all its electricity needs, but
seasonal generation volatility means that there is a surplus of electricity during the summer
and a shortfall during the winter. Existing generation capacity is not sufficient for the winter
months, leaving much of the population subject to outages and with limited electricity
access. Some of the remote regions of the country have no electricity or heating.
Electricity shortages have existed since the country gained its independence in 1991, and
the system has been under increasing pressure as demand continues to grow. The main
response to the winter shortages has been limitations on consumption, primarily affecting
people in rural areas who represent around 70% of the population.
Additional risks to energy security come from an ageing infrastructure and a large number
of generation facilities reaching the end of their lifespans. To maintain existing capacity,
approximately 80% of Tajikistan’s HPPs will need to be rehabilitated by 2030. The
government is working mainly with the IFIs to secure projects and funding for these large-
scale rehabilitations. Preliminary rehabilitation work on the giant Nurek HPP, as well as on
the Kayrakum HPP, is ongoing.
Difficulties with regional co-operation is another factor that has compromised Tajikistan’s
energy security. With the suspension of the electricity interconnection to Uzbekistan
(connecting to CAPS) in 2009, and disconnection from the Uzbekistan gas pipeline in
2013, the country had to curtail its reliance on energy imports in order to alleviate winter
electricity shortages.
These regional circumstances have made the construction of a 500 kV north-south

connection line within the country a necessity, and large industries have begun to use
21
more coal to avoid the consequences of natural gas shortages. The government aims to
improve energy security by developing domestic energy resources (including large hydro),
improving transmission and distribution networks, and strengthening regional integration
with other neighbouring countries.
Construction of the Rogun reservoir on the Vakhsh River is one of the government’s main
projects at present – when operational, the Rogun HPP will have a capacity of 3.6 GW and
will produce sufficient electricity to eradicate winter shortages. Construction of the plant
began in the 1980s but was interrupted by political instability; after positive assessment by
the World Bank, construction restarted in 2016.
The government also plans to develop energy sources other than large hydro to diversify
the fuel mix and reduce volatility in electricity generation. Having sizeable coal
deposits/reserves and a coal production history of more than a century, the government
has turned to coal as an ultimate fuel in resolving severe electricity shortages in winter
months, when water levels are too low for electricity production. Production of coal in 2020
reached 2.1 Mt, which is a tenfold rise from 2010. Coal has rapidly become a key energy
source in Tajikistan (26.3% of total energy supply (TES) in 2020). Barqi Tojik constructed
a new coal-fired power plant, Dushanbe-2 (400 MW capacity), and a new TPP is planned
to be built by 2025 in Zarafshon. Over 130 MW of small hydro had been developed by the
end of 2014, and other plans include converting heat generation plants from gas to coal
and rehabilitating existing TPPs to improve efficiency.
Regional co-operation is also crucial, and the government is turning its focus to southern
neighbours because Rogun HPP is intended to provide enough electricity for domestic
consumption as well as for export to Afghanistan and Pakistan in the summer months, as
specified under the CASA-1000 project. If both projects proceed, Tajikistan’s significant
involvement in regional co-operation would diversify its export markets.
In addition, Tajikistan has investment for reconnection to CAPS. From 2023 Tajikistan is
expected to be connected to CAPS, which will bring greater stability to the electricity
system of the country and wider region. These infrastructure projects will allow Tajikistan
to not only export but to import electricity from Central Asia countries at the same time,
increasing its energy security.
Energy supply and demand

Tajikistan’s energy system depends primarily on hydroelectricity, coal and oil. Hydropower
and coal are produced domestically whereas virtually all oil and gas must be imported to
meet the demand. This also explains the high share of electricity in final consumption, as
well as the increasing use of coal in both transformation and industries.
The importance of gas in the economy is low. Between 2013 and 2017 the imports were
physically halted, but resumed in 2018. Several large hydroelectric plants generate over
90% of the electricity. Hydro capacity is soon to expand through the commissioning of the
new units at the largest reservoir power plant, i.e. Rogun. As of 2022 no solar photovoltaic
(PV) or wind capacity has been commissioned.
In 2020, TES was 3.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), of which over two-thirds were
covered by domestic energy sources. Fossil fuels (natural gas, coal and oil) accounted for
around 60% of TES.
22
Total final consumption (TFC) was 3.1 Mtoe in 2020, of which electricity accounted for
ENERGY INSIGHTS
43%, oil 34%, coal 16%, and the remaining 7% from natural gas and district heat. The
share of electricity in Tajikistan’s TFC is among the highest in the world. It is noteworthy
that the contribution of bioenergy is not systematically tracked.
The energy consumption level was comparable in the transport sector (33% of TFC in
2020) and residential sector (30%). Industrial energy consumption is traditionally
comparable to these, however it slumped almost 25% between 2019 and 2020, likely as a
result of Covid-19. Services consumed 9% of TFC and agriculture 7%.
Figure 2.2 Overview of Tajikistan’s energy system by fuel and sector, 2020
Mtoe
4.0 Hydro
Electricity
Transformation
Transformationand
andlosses
losses
Imports (net)
3.0 District heat
Industry
Natural gas
2.0 Transport Oil
Coal
Services*
1.0
Residential
Production TES TFC (by fuel) TFC (by sector) IEA. All rights reserved.
Tajikistan imports roughly one-third of its energy needs, mainly in the form of oil products.
* Includes commercial and public services, agriculture and forestry and unspecified energy consumption.
Note: Bunker fuels of around 0.03 Mtoe are not included in TES. Electricity exports accounting for 3.5% of TES
(negative) are not shown in the chart.
Source: IEA (2022), World Energy Statistics and Balances (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics.
Energy production and domestic supply

Tajikistan’s primary energy production amounted to 2.5 Mtoe in 2020. Domestic energy
production mainly consists of hydro (62% of production in 2020) and coal (37%). Hydro
generation has increased in recent years (+13% since 2015) as a result of capacity
additions. Coal mining has increased from negligible quantities in 2010 to over 2 Mt
(1.2 Mtoe) in 2019. Overall self-sufficiency has grown from around 60% of the TES in the
early 2000s to almost 75% in 2019.
Figure 2.3 Primary energy production by source, 2000-2020

Mtoe
2.5 Oil and
natural gas
2.0 Coal
1.5 Hydro
1.0
0.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 IEA. All rights reserved.
Hydroelectricity and coal are the main domestic energy sources.

Note: Data on bioenergy not available.
23
Figure 2.4 Self-sufficiency (production/TES) by energy source, 2000-2020

Production /TES (%)
Coal
100
Total energy
80
Oil
60
Natural gas
40
20
Virtually all oil and gas used in Tajikistan must be imported.

Note: Self-sufficiency is calculated by domestic production over TES. Values below 100% indicate that the country
produces less than it consumes, making it a net importer of energy. For 2013-2017 there were no natural gas imports.
TES stood at 3.7 Mtoe in 2019, an increase of 68% since 2010. Hydro accounted for 443%
of TES, oil for 29% and coal for 26%. Natural gas covered only 5%.
Coal demand went from marginal in the early 2010s to a key energy source in TES in
2020. Similarly, oil consumption has more than doubled since 2010.
Figure 2.5 Total energy supply by source, 2000-2020

Mtoe
4.0 Natural gas
3.5
Coal
3.0
Oil
2.5
2.0 Hydro
1.5
1.0
0.5
Tajikistan’s TES increased by almost 70% between 2010 and 2020.

24
Figure 2.6 Breakdown of total energy supply in selected countries, 2019
ENERGY INSIGHTS
Tajikistan
Tajikistan
Pakistan
European Union
Ukraine
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Republic of Moldova
IEA total
Georgia
World
World
Turkey
China
Russia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Iran
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy and waste Wind Solar Other*
The share of hydro in Tajikistan’s TES remains one of the highest in the world.
* Includes geothermal, primary heat, wave and ocean energy.
Note: Electricity trade not included.
Tajikistan relies on hydro, coal and oil for its energy supply, and much less on natural gas.
Although the share of coal in TES in Tajikistan is on the rise, the share of fossil fuels is still
well below the world average.
Energy consumption
Tajikistan’s TFC amounted to 3.1 Mtoe in 2020, an increase of 58% since 2010. Demand
in the residential, industry and transport sectors has seemingly grown, but uncertainty in
the historical data hinders the trend analysis. In 2020, the residential sector consumed
33% of TFC, followed by transport (30%) and the industrial sector (20%). Services
consumed 9% of TFC and agriculture 7%. Consumption in agriculture has decreased by
27% since 2010.
Fossil fuels (mainly oil and coal) accounted for 53% of the TFC in 2020. However, the
share of electricity – 43% of TFC – is among the highest in the world. The domestic hydro
resource has resulted in high rate of electrification in industry and residential sectors.
Natural gas and district heat play only minor roles in the TFC (around 3-4% each). An
25
energy consumption survey conducted by TajStat in 2016 indicates the consumption of

bioenergy, particularly by households, may be grossly underestimated.
Figure 2.7 Total final consumption by sector, 2000-2020

Mtoe
3.0 Services
Agriculture
2.5
Industry*
2.0 Residential
1.5 Unspecified**
Transport
1.0
0.5
Final consumption of energy has grown over 70% since 2000.

* Includes non-energy consumption.
** The relatively high share of unspecified energy consumption before 2015 hinders accurate sectoral analysis. Using
expert estimates, unallocated liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption was reallocated to the transport sector.
Figure 2.8 Total final consumption by source and sector, 2020
Industry* 38% 6% 41% 14%

Electricity
Transport 100%
Oil
Residential 63% 25% 12%
Coal
Services/other** 98% 2%
Natural gas
District heat
Total
Total 43% 34% 16% 3% 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% IEA. All rights reserved.
Electricity is the main energy carrier in Tajikistan’s final consumption.

** Includes commercial and public services, agriculture and forestry, and unspecified consumption.
Note: For ease of readability, shares of less than 1% are not shown. Therefore, the sectoral totals may not add up to 100%.
Energy sector governance

The Ministry of Energy and Water Resources (MEWR) is responsible for policies on
energy, RES and energy efficiency; it also governs the oil and gas sector
(http://mewr.gov.tj/ru/).
The Ministry of Industry and New Technologies regulates Tajikistan’s coal industry and is
responsible for setting coal sector development policy and overseeing its implementation
(http://www.sanoat.tj/).
26
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade is the central executive authority and
ENERGY INSIGHTS
participates in the development of state policy for all social and economic sectors of the
country (www.medt.tj), and the Ministry of Justice analyses draft laws and submits them
to the government for consideration (www.minjust.tj).
The Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan (TajStat) is the main
provider of energy statistics, as well as activity data required for the assessment of GHG
emissions used in Tajikistan’s reporting under the UNFCCC. It is responsible for household
surveys, demographic statistics and a wide range of economic statistics, including surveys
of enterprises and institutions, as well as prices, foreign trade, etc. (http://www.stat.tj/ru).
The Committee on Construction and Architecture under the Government is tasked with
monitoring and enforcing energy efficiency standards in new construction
(http://tajsohtmon.tj), and the Agency of Standardization, Metrology, Certification and
Trade Inspection under the Government is responsible for the standardisation of energy
products and energy efficiency measures (http://www.standard.tj).
The Committee on Environmental Protection under the Government is responsible for

implementing environmental protection laws and managing forests, flora and fauna
generally, protected areas and natural monuments, and water and air resources, and for
ensuring compliance with environmental safety standards (www.hifzitabiat.tj). The Main
Department of Geology under the Government regulates the use of minerals
(http://www.gst.tj).
The Anti-monopoly Service under the Government reviews tariffs and is responsible for
implementing state policy for the protection and development of competition. It is tasked
with suppressing monopolistic activities and controlling advertising to protect consumers
(http://www.ams.tj).
The state-owned open joint-stock company (OJSC) Barqi Tojik is the national company
responsible for generation, the OJSC Shabakahoi Intiqoli Barq for transmission, and the
OJSC Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq for distribution of electricity (http://www.barqitojik.tj/).
The National Coal Company, Angishti Tojik (the Tajik Coal), is the responsible state entity
for operating state-owned companies and assets in the coal sector, overseeing the
condition of state mining deposits, implementation of production licences, and operations
of subsidiary enterprises.
The state-owned OJSC Tajiktransgaz is responsible for the generation, transmission and
distribution of gas, and the OJSC Naftrason is the national entity responsible for
production, transmission and distribution of oil.
The only district heat supply system currently operational is in the capital city, Dushanbe,
where the city-owned OJSC Dushanbe Teploset (Dushanbe District Heating Company) is
responsible for distribution and consumer relations.
Energy statistics
The collection, validation and dissemination of official energy statistics fall under the
responsibility of TajStat. TajStat produces annual energy statistics regarding the
production and consumption of energy commodities, as well as the external trade in such
27
commodities. Some of these data are available on the public domain. There is no
dedicated staff specifically for energy statistics, but the relevant statistics are currently
governed by different statistics departments.
Since 2017, data have been increasingly produced following relevant international
methodologies and standards. TajStat also receives and processes data from a number
of government bodies, notably the MEWR and the Ministry of Finance. The national
statistics strategy until 2030 defines priority areas also for the development of energy
statistics:
 shift towards electronic reporting

 implementing international best practices in the development of energy statistics
 national co-operation to improve commodity balances
 calculation of energy efficiency indicators, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
TajStat has regular collaboration with the main (government) data users, building trust in
and knowledge of the available data. The main national users of energy data include
the MEWR and TajHydroMet, which is responsible for climate reporting under the
UNFCCC. TajStat also co-operates and regularly shares energy data with international
organisations, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United Nations
Statistics Division (UNSD), and the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI).
Energy efficiency indicators

Conducting a specific household energy consumption survey (e.g. every five years) to
obtain disaggregated energy information within the residential sector would allow the
development of important energy efficiency indicators, which in turn would greatly support
any future energy efficiency policies and measures for buildings and the household sector.
Energy data management and use

The 2015 IEA review noted that Tajikistan “aims to adopt the IEA energy balance format”
and recommended that it “develop energy efficiency indicators to monitor progress” (IEA,
2015). Since then, Tajikistan has improved energy demand data collection with support
from the World Bank by developing and piloting three new surveys, including the first
household energy consumption survey in 2016 (TajStat, 2018), which is to be commended.
While the survey indicated widespread use of fuelwood in households, consumption is

currently not tracked systematically. This could be done by conducting a specific
household energy consumption survey (e.g. every five years) to obtain disaggregated
energy information on energy end uses. The obtained data would also support the
development of energy efficiency indicators, which in turn would greatly support any future
energy efficiency policies and measures for buildings and the household sector. In
developing new surveys, it is important to take into account the lessons learned from the
first one conducted in 2016.
The assessment of the annual energy statistics provided to the IEA shows a clear increase
in the level of detail since the introduction of the new data collection. Continued adoption
28
of the international energy statistics methodology and standards 2 in data production and
ENERGY INSIGHTS
dissemination would further support developing a complete picture of the national energy
landscape. This includes developing a national official energy balance that also
incorporates all the survey results.
While some energy information is already available online, this could be complemented
with the release of additional statistics on energy trade and commodity and energy
balances in user-friendly formats on a dedicated section of the relevant websites.
The strategic priorities for energy statistics included in the national statistics strategy are
all relevant. It will be useful to regularly update the strategy to reflect emerging needs. To
support these directions, it would be important to resource a dedicated position/team
responsible for compiling, validating and disseminating energy statistics inside TajStat.
This would greatly facilitate expanding energy statistics production to include e.g. the
official energy balance, energy efficiency indicators and improved co-operation at both the
national and international levels.
Development of energy efficiency indicators is one of the strategic priorities of TajStat.

This demanding exercise should benefit from the international best practice and be
allocated proper staff resources with capacity-building opportunities. Most importantly,
stakeholder co-operation (TajStat, MEWR, Ministry of Finance) is essential, given that
energy efficiency cuts across all sectors of the economy.
No public information is available on oil stocks or the related reporting mechanisms in the
country. Having a monitoring system in place would help the government take the right
action rapidly in case of supply disruptions and thus cushion the shocks to the economy.
Assessment
While Tajikistan is endowed with abundant water resources, its hydropower has a clear
seasonality with the summer maximum and winter minimum. Close to 90% of the installed
generation capacity in Tajikistan is represented by HPPs. Recent analysis performed in
support of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) confirmed that the
county’s wind power potential is also substantial, ranging from 30 TWh to 100 TWh per
year. Despite good energy resource endowment since the 2010s, Tajikistan has
experienced regular winter energy shortages due to the seasonality of hydropower. The
country was cut off from the CAPS in 2009, and gas deliveries from Uzbekistan stopped
in 2013. The situation has somewhat improved since 2016, after the launching of coal-
fired generation and rehabilitation of the Dushanbe district heating system. In addition,
from 2018, Uzbekistan restarted gas exports to Tajikistan while Tajikistan has resumed
electricity exports to Uzbekistan.
In order to improve its energy security (i.e. to deal with HPP seasonality and natural gas
shortages), Tajikistan has been actively adding coal-fired generation. The Dushanbe-2
co-generation plant (400 MW) was launched in 2014--2016 and uses domestic coal
resources. The current proven coal reserves in the country are estimated at 375 Mt and
include the Fan-Yagnob and Shurab coal basins. Coal extraction was steadily growing for
2United Nations Statistics Division (2018), International Recommendations for Energy Statistics,
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats/methodology/ires/.
29
the last ten years reaching 2 Mt in 2019 (more than ten times more than in 2010). The
National Development Strategy calls for an increase in coal production to 15 Mt per year
by 2030.
For oil and gas, the country primarily relies on imports, but it also has proven reserves of
120 Mt of oil and 880 Mt of gas. The Khoja Sartez field in the southern Khatlon Region and
the Qizil Tumshuq deposit in the Kolkhozobod District of the southern Khatlon Region are
currently producing hydrocarbons.
Along with hydropower, Tajikistan also has significant solar power potential (assessed at
25 TWh/year or 2 150 kilotonnes (kt) of oil equivalent, which exceeds the current power
generation by all the sources) but it has been barely developed and is currently
represented by a small number of residential projects (e.g. about 2 450 solar power units
with a total rated capacity of 88.7 kilowatts [kW] were installed in 13 remote regions in
2009-2014 to provide electricity to residential and public facilities).
There is small potential for wind energy in Tajikistan, but its use as complementary to
hydropower is justified in some regions. The strongest winds are observed in mountainous
areas, where the landscape of the country finds the maximum wind speed and flows, as
well as in the Sughd Region and the Rasht Valley, where wind speed is about 5-6 m/sec
(Asia Wind Energy Association, 2022).
The Strategy 2030 aims to improve living standards through sustainable economic
development via energy security and the efficient use of electricity, integrated water
resource management, productive employment and the removal of limitations on
connectivity. The government intends to achieve its energy goals by reducing electricity
consumption through energy efficiency measures and energy source diversification,
including renewable energy, leading to energy exports within the framework of an
integrated regional grid.
The aim of this ongoing reform of the energy sector is the creation of an open market and
the facilitation of trade with Tajikistan's neighbouring countries, primarily with Uzbekistan,
Afghanistan and Pakistan. Although the unbundling of the national electricity utility Barqi
Tojik into separate companies responsible for generation, transmission and distribution
took place at the end of 2019, the reallocation of assets among the newly created entities
remains incomplete and has delayed the introduction of targeted cost-reflective tariffs.
Low quality and unequally distributed power supply has had an especially heavy impact
on the most economically disadvantaged groups of the population, mainly those employed
in agriculture and living in remote areas, affecting their food security and nutritional status
and lowering their living standards. Women, who make up a substantial part of the
agricultural workforce and take the lead role in household, energy, water, waste
management and childcare, have borne the brunt of this. The shortage of water and
sanitation in particular puts an extra burden on women and girls under 15 years of age
because they are the primary collectors of water and cleaners of sanitation facilities in rural
households.
30
Recommendations
ENERGY INSIGHTS
 Ensure compliance with the highest technical, environmental and social quality
standards in developing new HPPs and adherence to stringent safety standards.
 Enhance legal and regulatory framework for social, environmental and economic
impacts of energy projects, particularly to address the resettlement of local populations
and measures to ensure higher-quality environmental and social impact assessments.
 Encourage development of all renewable energy sources to meet national strategy
goals for 2030.
 Commit to clean coal development and adherence to strict environmental standards in
support of the fast-paced growth of coal sector development and its industrial use,
consistent with the country’s climate change and sustainable development strategies,
as well as with its economic, environmental and social policies.
 Maintain close co-operation with TajStat and continue to use official energy statistics
as the foundation for analysis in strategic documents and when drafting new
legislation.
 Provide sufficient resources (human and financial) for TajStat to expand the collection
and online dissemination of energy data and support co-operation at both the national
and international levels to develop staff capacity.
 Encourage TajStat to further align the production and dissemination of official energy
statistics with international recommendations, particularly by increasing data
disaggregation and accuracy of energy end uses.
 Engage with TajStat and other data providers and users to ensure all necessary
energy information is available, accessible and accurate to all stakeholders, including
the entity responsible for the GHG inventory.
 Expedite the development of energy efficiency indicators according to the international
methodology to track the impact of sectoral energy efficiency policies (industry,
transport, residential, services); envision a clear division of work covering energy
efficiency monitoring among the relevant institutions, i.e. TajStat, MEWR, etc.
 Conduct household energy consumption surveys at regular intervals (e.g. every five
years) to monitor energy efficiency policy implications in the residential sector and to
increase the level of data disaggregation, particularly on biomass utilisation.
 Encourage TajStat to update the statistics strategy periodically to ensure continuous
improvement of energy statistics.
31
References
Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan, https://www.stat.tj/en
Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan (2019), National Strategy
for the Development of Statistics for the Period up to 2030,
https://stat.ww.tj/files/nsds_to_2030.pdf
Asia Wind Energy Association (2022), Country Overview: Tajikistan,
https://www.asiawind.org/research-data/market-overview/tajikistan, (accessed 17 June
2022).
EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), System Upgrade: Delivering
the Digital Dividend, Transition Report 2021-22, Country Assessments: Tajikistan,
https://www.ebrd.com/publications/transition-report-202122-tajikistan
Stantec (2021), The European Union Global Technical Assistance Facility on Sustainable
Energy: Support the Government of Tajikistan in Developing a Revised, More Ambitious
NDC: Final Report, May 2021.
Human Development Report 2020, Briefing Note for Countries on the 2020 Human
Development Report, Tajikistan, https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-
Profiles/TJK.pdf
IEA (International Energy Agency) (2022), World Energy Statistics and Balances
(database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics (accessed 10 June 2022)
IEA (2015), Energy Policies Beyond IEA Countries: Caspian and Black Sea Regions 2015,
Energy Policies Beyond IEA Countries, IEA, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264228719-
enhttps://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics
IEA (2014), Energy Efficiency Indicators: Essentials for Policy Making,
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-indicators-essentials-for-policy-making
IMF (International Monetary Fund), Republic of Tajikistan,
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/TJK
Knoema, World Data Atlas, https://knoema.com/atlas/Tajikistan/topics/Economy/National-
Accounts-Gross-Domestic-Product/Real-GDP-based-on
PPP#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20real%20GDP%20based,was%2034%2C884%20million%
20international%20dollars
Law No. 588, “On the state statistics”, Republic of Tajikistan, adopted on January 12, 2010.
Law on state forecasts, concepts, strategy and programs of social and economic
development of the Republic of Tajikistan, No. 1544, August 3, 2018, https://cis-
legislation.com/document.fwx?rgn=108953
TajStat (2018), Report on the Results of One-Off Sample Survey on ‘The State of the
Energy Facilities and Efficiency of Use in 2016’,
https://stat.ww.tj/publications/July2018/English.pdf
UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) (2017), Tajikistan
Environmental Performance Reviews: Third Review, Geneva, http://www.unece.org/env/epr
UNSD (United Nations Statistics Division) (2018), International Recommendations for
Energy Statistics, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats/methodology/ires
World Bank (2021a), Tajikistan’s Energy Sector to Benefit from World Bank Support (press
release, 21 December 2021), https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-
release/2021/12/21/second-phase-of-the-nurek-hydropower-rehabilitation-project
World Bank (2021b), Tajikistan Economic Update: Summer 2021,
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tajikistan/publication/economic-update-summer-2021
32
World Bank (2021c), Tajikistan: Rebounding Economy, Challenges Remain, Country
ENERGY INSIGHTS
Economic Update Summer 2021,
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/532641628870881778/pdf/Tajikistan-
Rebounding-Economy-Challenges-Remain.pdf
World Bank (2019), World Development Indicators (database),
https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators
World Bank (2018a), Tajikistan Systematic Country Diagnostic: Making the National
Development Strategy 2030 a Success: Building the Foundation for Shared Prosperity,
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/430741528356150691/pdf/126209-SCD-
P160440-PUBLIC-TJK-SCD-WEB-v300518.pdf
World Bank (2018b), New Country Classifications by Income Level: 2018-2019 (blog),
https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-country-classifications-income-level-2018-2019
World Economic Forum (2017), The Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018, World
Economic Forum, Geneva, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2017-
2018/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2017%E2%80%932018.pdf
Worldometer, Tajikistan Population (Live) (database), https://www.worldometers.info/world-
population/tajikistan-population, (accessed 12 April 2022).
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Un-tajikistan.png
33
ENERGY SECURITY
3. Electricity
Key data
(2020)
Total electricity generation: 20.1 TWh (hydro 90.1%, coal 8.2%, natural gas 1.6%), +22.3%
since 2010
Total generating capacity: Installed: 6.4 GW (5.7 GW HPP, 0.7 GW TPP)
Available: 4.7 GW (4.3 GW HPP, 0.4 GW TPP)
Electricity net exports: 1.5 TWh (imports 0.4 TWh, exports 1.9 TWh)
Electricity consumption: 15.4 TWh (residential 44.5%, services 20.3%, industry 17.8%,
agriculture 17.0%, others 0.5%), +8.9% since 2010
Overview
Tajikistan’s electricity supply relies on its abundant hydro resources. The electricity system
is dominated by state-owned monopolies/enterprises, and the government sets all
wholesale and retail prices. Electricity market reform is under way, unbundling the
vertically integrated state monopoly and setting up an independent regulator to attract
private-sector investment and increase efficiency. A national development strategy,
sectoral programmes, and related legal and regulatory instruments have also been
adopted and are being implemented.
Over the past decade, the government has actively pursued support from international
donors to upgrade and modernise the country’s existing aged infrastructure, but further
investment is required to modernise and expand generation capacity and networks in order
to guarantee security of supply and enable electricity demand growth.
Cross-border trade allows Tajikistan to balance supply and demand despite the seasonal
fluctuations of its hydropower-dominated electricity generation. Tajikistan has significant
near and long-term regional electricity trading opportunities. The electricity system
interconnects with CAPS and with Afghanistan, and a new transmission line connecting
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan will allow country for a near - term flexible
trading options within Central Asia and with Afghanistan and Pakistan, while Cross-Border
Electricity Trading for Tajikistan: A Roadmap, IEA (2021), notes long-term regional trade
opportunities also with China, India, Iran and Iraq.
Meanwhile, the country’s significant solar and wind power potential could be harnessed to
meet several energy-policy goals simultaneously, and the government has recently set a
target for renewable energy to provide 10% of generating capacity by 2030.
35
3. ELECTRICITY
The OJSC Barqi Tojik, formerly a vertically integrated state-owned utility, controlled
generation, transmission, distribution and retail until 2021, when it was restructured to
improve the operation of the power system. This was the key stage of an ongoing energy
sector reform, which established separate transmission and distribution entities, leaving
electricity generation and regional trade functions with Barqi Tojik. New utilities, OJSCs
Shabakahoi Intiqoli Barq, responsible for transmission, and Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq,
responsible for distribution, are fully established and operational since 2021. Pamir
Energy, founded in 2002 as a public-private partnership by the government and the Aga
Khan Fund for Economic Development, is responsible for generation, transmission and
distribution in Gorno-Badakhshan.
Supply and demand

In 2020 the country generated 20.1 TWh, while domestic demand was 15.4 TWh. Demand
has grown almost 10% since 2010.
At the annual level Tajikistan is a net exporter of electricity, but there are seasonal
shortfalls of supply.
The network losses calculated from the official energy statistics are relatively high, being
14.2% of the supply in 2020 and averaging 15.5% between 2000 and 2020.
Figure 3.1 Tajikistan’s electricity supply, 2000-2020

TWh
25
20 Imports
15 Production
10
Exports
5
Network losses
-5 Consumption
-10
Cross-border trade plays an important role in the Central Asian electricity system.
Note: Tajikistan was disconnected from CAPS in 2009, explaining the reduction in trade volumes since 2010. In 2018
it reconnected and initiated bilateral electricity trade with Uzbekistan.
Capacity
Tajikistan’s total installed electricity generation capacity in 2020 was 6.4 GW, of which 5.7
GW was HPP 0.7GW TPP, compared with the available 4.7 GW generation capacity, of
which 4.3 GW (90%) was hydro-based and remaining 0.4 thermal.
Tajikistan has 11 large and medium HPPs and nearly 300 small HPPs (total capacity
132 MW). Most hydropower is produced by HPPs on the Vakhsh River, with a total
capacity of approximately 5 GW producing 19 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year. The largest
36
3. ELECTRICITY
of these is the 3 GW Nurek hydroelectric facility, built on the Soviet-era Nurek Dam that
ENERGY SECURITY
was constructed between 1961 and 1980.
Generation capacity in Tajikistan, 2020

Type Units Installed Available Operator
capacity (MW) capacity (MW)
Nurek Reservoir 9 3 000 2 400 Barqi Tojik
Baypaza Run-of-river 4 600 450 Barqi Tojik
Vaksh Cascade Run-of-river 285 214 Barqi Tojik
Golovnaya 6
Perepadnaya 3
Central 2
Varzob Cascade Run-of-river 27 7 Barqi Tojik
Varzob-1 2
Varzob-2 2
Varzob-3 2
Kayrakkum Run-of-river 6 126 120 Barqi Tojik
Sangtuda-1 Run-of-river 4 670 670 UES
Sangtuda-2 Run-of-river 2 220 220 Sangob
Rogun Reservoir 2 240 240 Barqi Tojik
Dushanbe-1 co-generation Thermal 1 198 42 Barqi Tojik
Dushanbe-2 co-generation Thermal 4 400 400 Barqi Tojik
Yavan co-generation
(mothballed) Thermal 1 0 0 Barqi Tojik
Pamir Energy (combined) 44 Pamir
Total 5 810 4 763
of which: HPPs 5 168 4 321
of which: thermal 598 442
Shares:
HPPs 89% 91%
Thermal 10% 9%
Note: UES = Unified Energy Systems
Source: Cross-Border Electricity Trading for Tajikistan: A Roadmap, IEA (2021)
Hydro generation capacity further expanded with the opening of the Sangtuda-1 HPP in
2009 and the smaller Sangtuda-2 HPP in 2014, which add 900 MW of combined capacity.
The government is also seeking aid from donor communities and foreign investors to
maintain and increase capacity by rehabilitating the oldest and largest HPPs, particularly
the Nurek and Qairaqqum facilities, which are currently ongoing.
The most significant HPP project development, expected to add significant generation
capacity is the Rogun HPP. The first unit was commissioned and connected to the grid in
November 2018, while second unit completed and put into production in September 2019.
When all six units are built and operating, the Rogun HPP capacity will be 3 600 MW.
Thermal power capacity represents around 10% of total generation capacity, and the
Dushanbe-1 and Dushanbe-2 TPPs are also used in heat generation and centralised
heating. The conversion of heat boilers from gas- to coal-fired and the rehabilitation of
existing TPPs are planned to improve efficiency.
37
3. ELECTRICITY
Generation
Gross electricity generation in 2020 was 20.1 TWh. A large majority – 90% – of this was
generated from hydro, the rest being mainly from coal (8%) and natural gas (2%). While
still relatively low, the share of thermal generation has grown rapidly. A new 400 MW coal-
fired co-generation plant was commissioned in 2013, and natural gas was reintroduced in
the electricity mix only in 2019 after the supplies had been cut off since 2013.
Figure 3.2 Electricity generation by source, 2020

1.6%
8.2%
Hydro
Coal
Natural gas
90.1%
Hydro is the key energy resource in Tajikistan.

Figure 3.3 Electricity generation by source, 2000-2020

TWh
24
20
Natural gas
16
Coal
12
8 Hydro
4
Net trade
-4
Electricity generation has increased by over 40% since 2000.

Total annual power generation has increased 3.7 TWh, or over 20% since 2010, with
similar increases in electricity generated from coal and hydro (1.7 TWh each). The rest is
attributed to natural gas.
38
3. ELECTRICITY
Figure 3.4 Electricity generation by source in selected countries, 2019
ENERGY SECURITY
Tajikistan
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Georgia
Ukraine
European Union
Armenia
IEA total
Turkey
World
World
Russia
China
Pakistan
Republic of Moldova
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Iran
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Turkmenistan
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Bioenergy and waste Other*
* includes geothermal, electricity from heat, wave and ocean power and other power generation (e.g. from fuel cells).
General characteristics of power plants in Tajikistan

Number Name Installed Available Year of
capacity (МW) capacity (MW) commissioning
1 Nurek HPP 1 995 1 950 1972, 1979
1 005 800
2 Rogun HPP 3 600 240 2018
3 Boygozi HPP 600 550 1985
4 Sangtuda-1 HPP 670 670 2008
5 Sangtuda-2 HPP 220 220 2011
6 Golovnaya HPP 240 170 1962
7 Kayrakkum HPP 126 124 1956
8 Dushanbe-1 TPP 198 130 1961
9 Yavan TPP 120 0 Not active
10 Dushanbe-2 TPP 400 400 2016
11 Tsentralnaya HPP 15.1 12.8 1964
12 Perepadnaya HPP 29.95 26.3 1958
13 Varzob HPP-1 9.5 9.5 1937
14 Cascade HPP-2 14.4 5 1949

HPPs
15 HPP-3 3.52 1.5 1952
Source: In-depth review submission 2022.
39
3. ELECTRICITY
Consumption
Electricity consumption in 2020 was 15.4 TWh, an increase of almost 10% since 2010.
The residential sector accounted for the largest share of consumption at 44%, up 40%
since 2015.
While in 2020 consumption shares in industry (18%) and services (20%) were roughly
equal, their demand patterns are opposite: industry consumption has shrunk by 29% since
2015 whereas consumption in services has almost tripled (+174%) in the same time
period. Agriculture – mainly irrigation – consumed 17% of the total and has also contracted
notably since 2015 (-32%).
Given that the majority of the electricity is generated via hydro, energy sector own use is
very low (0.4%). While transport has always presented only a fraction of electricity
consumption (<1%), it is worth noting that only since 2015 consumption has decreased by
79%.
Figure 3.5 Electricity consumption by sector, 2000-2020

TWh
16
14
Other*
12
Services
10
8 Agriculture
6 Industry
4
Residential
2
* Includes energy sector own use and transport.

Notes: TWh = terawatt-hour (billion kWh). The accounting methodology for electricity statistics changed in 2015.
Therefore, the historical trends may not be comparable with recent data.
Figure 3.6 Tajikistan’s monthly electricity supply, January 2012-January 2022
TWh
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
Imports Electricity production of which: exports Domestic supply IEA. All rights reserved.
Domestic electricity demand shows a seasonal pattern peaking in January and in July.
Source: TajStat (2022), Real economy indicators (database)
40
3. ELECTRICITY
Electricity demand in Tajikistan features seasonal peaks, one occurring towards the end
ENERGY SECURITY
of the year and another during July-August, the latter due mainly to crop irrigation. The
rising use of air conditioners, combined with expected hotter summers, could lead to a
more pronounced summer peak in the future.
Imports and exports

In 2020, Tajikistan exported 1.9 TWh and imported 0.4 TWh, resulting in net exports of
1.5 TWh.
Tajikistan was disconnected from CAPS in 2009, which explains the reduction in trade
volumes since 2010. In 2018 it reconnected and initiated bilateral electricity trade with
Uzbekistan.
Figure 3.7 Tajikistan’s electricity trade, 2000-2020

TWh
6
4
Imports
2
Exports
-2
Net trade
-4
-6
The resumption of the connection with Uzbekistan saw Tajikistan export -2.41 TWh in
2021: 1.14 TWh to Uzbekistan and 1.27 TWh to Afghanistan.
Figure 3.8 Tajikistan’s net electricity exports by country, 2016-2021

TWh Afghanistan
3.0
2.5 Uzbekistan
2.0 Other/unspecified
1.5
1.0
0.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEA. All rights reserved.
Notes: Data represent the difference between the annual imports and exports to a country. Annual net trade with
Kyrgyzstan is negligible and not shown in the chart.
Source: IEA (2022), World Energy Statistics and Balances (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics (source
for 2021 data).
The aim is to increase exports by 10 TWh by 2030. Through CASA-1000, exports to

Pakistan are projected to reach a minimum of 3 TWh; however, the project’s infrastructure
41
3. ELECTRICITY
offers the potential to export up to 10 TWh. At the same time Tajikistan is set to be
connected CAPS via Uzbekistan in 2023, which will give Tajikistan access to the regional
market.
Additionally, exports to Afghanistan will increase through the construction of the new
Rogun-Kabul 500 kV line – currently exports to Afghanistan are via the 220 kV Sangtuda-
Puli Khumri line.
Sector structure
The MEWR is responsible for the country’s water and energy resources, managing water
and energy policies to plan the development of these resources, their management and
regulation, capacity building, and exercising state control over the rational use and
protection of water resources. MEWR is responsible for facilitating investment and
concession agreements in the energy sector and co-ordinating activities of the ministries
and agencies involved in water resources, and it acts as the authority and leading body in
the national dialogue on policy related to integrated use of water resources.
The Ministry of Industry and New Technologies regulates Tajikistan’s coal industry and is
responsible for setting coal sector development policy and overseeing its implementation.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade is responsible for strategies for
socio-economic development, working with state programmes to develop internal and
external investments. It is the regulator for Barqi Tojik’s tariffs through its Anti-monopoly
Committee, and is also responsible for developing sectoral and regional development
programmes, and principles and mechanisms for economic reform.
The Ministry of Finance is responsible for assigning the budgets for state-owned
companies and other organisations and processing debts and financing from multilateral
institutions.
TajStat is the central statistical office and is responsible for collecting, compiling and
disseminating data and surveys on demographics, prices and enterprises.
The state company OJSCs Barqi Tojik is the electric utility responsible for generation, the
OJSC Shabakahoi Intiqoli Barq, responsible for transmission, and the OJSC Shabakahoi
Taqsimoti Barq, responsible for distribution. These companies are responsible for
generating, transmitting and supplying all of the country’s electricity, except in the Gorno-
Badakhshan Autonomous Region, and for managing imports and exports of electricity.
The public-private company Pamir Energy is responsible for generation, transmission,

distribution and retail of electricity in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region.
The CASA-1000 Intergovernmental Council was established by the governments of

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan to develop the implementation and
operation of the CASA-1000 electricity transmission project, to agree on common policies
and regulation, and adoption of technical, safety and environmental standards. The council
is also responsible for selecting the operator of the transmission system.
The Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia was created by
Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and is the interstate
42
3. ELECTRICITY
body responsible for decisions on common management of interstate allocation and use
ENERGY SECURITY
of water resources, including establishing regional water policy, water consumption limits
and large reservoir regulation.
The Coordination Electric Power Council of Central Asia (CPC) is responsible for
consulting on co-ordinating power grid operations across Central Asia, bringing together
grid operators from Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan
was a member until it disconnected in 2003 from CAPS to operate in parallel with Iran.
The CPC draws up agreements for operating concepts, decisions and rules to ensure cost-
effectiveness and reliability for the region’s energy systems, and approves methodologies,
rules, instructions and regulations for their interaction. It is the governing body of the
Coordinating Dispatch Centre Energiya.
The Coordinating Dispatch Centre (CDC) Energiya is an operating and dispatch institution
governed by the CPC and is based in Uzbekistan. The power flow co-ordinator is
responsible for calculating transfers between the countries of Central Asia in the Central
Asian Power System. Originally funded by all of Central Asia’s countries, the withdrawal
of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan reduced the co-ordinating activities.
Energy legislation in Tajikistan is primarily covered by the Law on Energy of 2000, which
makes the government responsible for developing the energy sector on all levels, including
investment and concessions, pricing and tariffs, and controlling use of fuels and renewable
energy resources. Further energy legislation includes the Law on Renewable Energy
Resources (2010) and the Law on Energy Saving (2013).
Market reforms
The government planned restructuring of state-owned OJSC Barqi Tojik, a vertically
integrated utility that controlled generation, transmission, distribution and selling electricity
for over a decade. Its Decree No. 431 On an Individual Plan for the Restructuring of Barqi
Tojik, adopted in 2011, and the Resolution No. 234, passed in 2018, provided the basis
for unbundling Barqi Tojik into three separate entities in 2019-2021. As a result, OJSCs
Shabakahoi Intiqoli Barq was incorporated as an entity responsible for operating the
transmission network, and Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq, as operator of distribution
networks across the country, except for the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region.
Barqi Tojik maintained responsibility for electricity generation and its export and import.
The government is planning to approve a sector escrow account for the unbundled utilities,
where cash flow will be fixed.
The next stage of energy sector reform is establishing an independent regulator and
introducing a new tariff methodology, aiming at bringing electricity tariffs gradually to cost
recovery levels. Until then the Anti-monopoly Committee under the Ministry of Economic
Development and Trade continues to set energy prices and electricity tariffs. Since tariffs
have previously not been linked to service cost, a new tariff methodology, set up in 2017,
was introduced to increase electricity tariffs in increments, with the aim of cost recovery by
2025 by means of fixing a required income for generation, transmission and distribution
assets – the Sangtuda-1 and 2 HPPs and Pamir Energy have separate investment
agreements. The following years, 2018 and 2019, saw the introduction of incremental tariff
increases; however, the 2020 increase was postponed due to the Covid-19 global
pandemic.
43
3. ELECTRICITY
Policy framework
As a strategic industry, the aim for the power sector in the National Development Strategy
2030, launched in 2016, is for Tajikistan to become energy independent via its 10-10-10-
10-500 concept:
 10 GW increase in installed capacity

 10 TWh increase in annual electricity exports
 10% reduction in technical grid losses
 10% diversification of electricity generation: 90% hydro, 10% other sources
 500 GWh in energy savings from energy efficiency measures.
A number of laws on investment were streamlined to help achieve these targets, with those
covering the power sector being: On Privatisation of State Property, passed in 1997,
updated in 2017; On Production Sharing Agreements (2008); On Credit Histories (2009);
Concessions (2011); On Public-Private Partnerships (2012); and On Investment
Agreements (2016). Their mechanisms include:
 income tax exemptions based on amount invested

 tax and customs benefits for relevant machinery and equipment for energy production
 legal status for the investor, such as right to transfer profits abroad
 capital protection, with legal frameworks, partnership and investment agreements.
It is only comparatively recent that developments facilitating private-sector participation in
the power sector have appeared. As the first public-private partnership, Pamir Energy is a
concession agreement to serve Gorno-Badakhshan. In 2009, Sangtuda-1 HPP was
commissioned and is operated by the Russian Federation’s (hereafter, “Russia”) Unified
Energy Systems, and in 2011 Sangtuda-2 HPP was commissioned and is operated by
Iran’s Sangob – both hydro projects were carried out under a build-own-operate-transfer
arrangement.
Infrastructure investments and cross-border trade

The main investments in energy generation are the starting operation of the first two
components of Rogun HPP (own finance) and Dushanbe-2 for 400 MW (credits from
China).
The rehabilitation of ageing HPPs built during the Soviet era is under way for the Nurek
HPP (multi-donor investors led by the World Bank), Qayraqqum HPP (EBRD and EIB) and
Sarband HPP.
44
3. ELECTRICITY
Figure 3.9 Map of regional electricity interconnections
ENERGY SECURITY
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries
and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Source: USAID (2015), Central Asia Electric Grid.
Loss-reduction projects are being carried out in Khujand, Dushanbe and Bokhtar, funded
by EBRD, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The list of potential energy projects for investment for 2021-2025 has not yet been
released, but one of the new directions for investment is solar panel development.
Uzbekistan’s production of solar panels with a generation price of less than USD 0.02 has
inspired the other countries in Central Asia to look at the potential of developing solar. In
Tajikistan, the World Bank and ADB are now working on feasibility studies for solar power
in Sughd Region.
45
3. ELECTRICITY
Security of supply
For the past two decades, Tajikistan has faced winter electricity shortages, a situation that
worsened in 2009 when the country’s energy system was disconnected from CAPS. To
address this situation and to increase energy security, the new HPPs Sangtuda-1 and
Sangtuda-2 were built and are now operating, the new 400 MW TPP Dushanbe-2 started
operation, and new lines have been constructed.
The government’s investment continues with the construction of the Rogun 3 600 MW
HPP, with two components already operating. The full commission of Rogun HPP will
increase its generation capacity by 50-60%, and construction of a bigger reservoir will also
help to guarantee supply during the whole year, including winter. In the capital, feasibility
studies are under way for the development of a new TPP Dushanbe-3.
The rehabilitation of HPPs built during the Soviet era, particularly Norak and Qayroqqum,
comes under measures intended to improve the energy system’s resilience, which also
include programmes to reduce losses – such as smart metering in Dushanbe and Khujand
– as well as demand by improving energy efficiency and introducing energy-saving
technologies, although roll-out is slow.
New lines are being constructed to improve transmission, distribution and load system,
particularly Regar-Sangtuda and Rogun-Sangtuda, Tajikistan has also planned the
construction of new electric circuits for larger power transmission rings, which will avoid
power outages in case of emergency on certain power lines.
In 2022, Tajikistan is also planning to complete its part of CASA-1000, where full operation
will not only provide opportunities for export but will also strengthen the country’s electricity
system via connecting the Datka-Sugd 500 kV line with Kyrgyzstan.
Tajikistan will also reconnect to CAPS in 2023 via Uzbekistan, which will strengthen the
electricity system of Central Asia and provide an excellent opportunity for the future
functioning of Central Asian market.
In addition, Tajikistan upgraded outdated substations with modern technologies and

installed emergency recovery systems, that are connected to dispatch services through an
automated control system (ACS) in order to avoid system failures.
In terms of transport sector, Tajikistan encourages adoption of electric mobility, using

country’s own electricity resources in order to tackle increased transport fuel prices and to
reduce import dependency.
When importing gas became increasingly difficult, Tajikistan turned to developing fossil
fuel production – coal. Over a 20-year period, production has increased 100-fold, and by
2040 this is projected to increase by a factor of 7, totalling 15 Mt per year.
System integration of renewable energy

In Tajikistan the current installed capacity of solar and wind is less than 1 MW – solar, wind
and micro hydro power stations working off grid.
46
3. ELECTRICITY
More than 90% of Tajikistan’s electricity production is from hydro, with the remaining 10%
ENERGY SECURITY
from coal and gas, therefore the difficulties associated with variable renewable energy
integration are not an issue in Tajikistan’s electricity system.
Since the grid situation in the Sughd Region is complicated by increasing demand and
consumption, Barqi Tojik and Shabakahoi Intiqoli Barq plan to update grids and to install
new capacity in the region linked to an ongoing feasibility study for solar stations. If the
project goes ahead, the national transmission company will invest in upgrading the grid to
incorporate electricity from the new source.
Prices and tariffs

While the process of separating Barqi Tojik is being completed, the price for electricity is
calculated by Barqi Tojik according to the cost method, in co-ordination with the Anti-
monopoly Service and approved by government resolution. The cost of electricity varies
according to consumer categories as outlined in the following table.
Tariffs for electricity and heat

N Group of consumers The tariff according
to the government decree
from 22 June 2019
Diram (1/1000 somoni)
per kWh
1 Industry group 55.14
2 State Unitary Enterprise (SUE) "TALCO"
-from 1 May to 30 September 7.20
-from 1 October to 30 April 13.57
3 Non-industry group
- Subgroup А (commerce sector and non-industry) 55.14
- Subgroup B (budget sector) 22.66
- Subgroup В (schools, which do not belong to budget sector) 33.25
4 Communal group 22.66
5 Electricity transport 22.66
6 Agriculture sector 55.14
7 Irrigation and agriculture pump stations
from 1 October to 30 April 22.66
from 1 May to 30 September 7.87
8 Population 22.66
9 Electricity boilers 136.62
Note: TALCO = Tajik Aluminium Company.
Source: In-depth review submission 2022.
The cost of electricity does not cover Barqi Tojik’s expenditure, which negatively affects
the entity’s financial situation. One of the measures to improve this is to increase tariffs
and cut subsidies. Tariffs have hitherto been subsidised both for the population and for
large consumers such as TALCO and the agricultural sector, in particular irrigation
pumping stations. At the moment, the government with development partners is
developing a new tariff methodology and creating an independent regulator that will set
prices intended to pay for the costs of production, transmission and distribution of
electricity.
47
3. ELECTRICITY
Assessment
Based almost entirely on hydropower – with relatively little thermal generation –
Tajikistan’s energy sector faces the main challenges of seasonal shortages/surpluses and
the financial viability issues of Barqi Tojik. A number of institutional reforms have been
introduced by the government aimed at addressing these challenges, which include
restructuring the vertically integrated state-owned utility, implementing energy efficiency
laws and measures, and updating the sector’s regulatory and tariff regimes.
The country’s hydroelectric power is based on its abundant water resources: the Amu
Darya and Syr Darya rivers have a total length of 28 500 km, while the glaciers have a
total volume of 845 km³ (MEWR, 2021a). According to 2019 data, 93% of electricity
generation was from hydro and 7% was from coal-fired capacity. Since there are currently
few other sources for heating other than electricity, this accentuates winter peak demand
and deficits.
Installed generation capacity in Tajikistan today is 5 810 MW, of which 3 000 MW comes
from the Nurek hydro facility, about 2 210 MW from various run-of-river hydro plants, and
just under 600 MW from co-generation plants. As the state utility, Barqi Tojik owns and
operates the majority of the electricity system except for the Gorno-Badakhshan
Autonomous Region, where the owner and operator is Pamir Energy according to a
concession agreement, and the HPPs Sangtuda-1 and Sangtuda-2. There exist a large
number of power plants and transmission lines that were built during the Soviet era which
are ageing and require rehabilitation.
The OJSC Barqi Tojik is the main owner and operator of the electricity sector. Owned by
the state, the company is a vertically integrated utility that controls generation,
transmission, distribution and retail. Among the recent restructuring measures
implemented to improve the operation of the power system, the most significant moves
are: the financial unbundling of Barqi Tojik for transmission, distribution and retail, based
on Decree No. 431, on Individual Plan for the Restructuring of Barqi Tojik, passed in 2011;
and establishing separate legal entities for the transmission network operator and the
distribution network operator for the country except for the Gorno-Badakhshan
Autonomous Region, based on Resolution No. 234, passed in 2018.
The appointment in 2020 of the heads of these legal entities was followed in 2021 by the
registration of the operating entities as the OJSCs Shabakahoi Intiqoli Barq, responsible
for transmission, and Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq, responsible for distribution, while Barqi
Tojik keeps responsibility for electricity generation and export/import. Pamir Energy,
founded in 2002 as a public-private partnership by the government and the Aga Khan Fund
for Economic Development, is responsible for generation, transmission and distribution in
Gorno-Badakhshan.
The Anti-monopoly Committee of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade

administratively sets energy prices and electricity tariffs as they arise. Since tariffs have
previously not been linked to service cost, a new tariff methodology was set up in 2017 to
increase electricity tariffs incrementally with the aim of cost recovery by 2025 by means of
fixing a required income for generation, transmission and distribution assets – the
Sangtuda-1 and 2 HPPs and Pamir Energy have separate investment agreements. Then
2018 and 2019 saw the introduction of incremental tariff increases; however, the 2020
increase was postponed due to the Covid-19 global pandemic.
48
3. ELECTRICITY
As a strategic industry, the aim for the power sector in the National Development Strategy
ENERGY SECURITY
2030, launched in 2016, is for Tajikistan to become energy independent via its 10-10-10-
10-500 concept:
 10 GW increase in installed capacity

 10 TWh increase in annual electricity exports
 10% reduction in technical grid losses
 10% diversification of electricity generation: 90% hydro, 10% other sources
 500 GWh in energy savings from energy efficiency measures.
A number of laws on investment were streamlined to help achieve these targets, with those
covering the power sector being: On Privatisation of State Property, passed in 1997,
updated in 2017; On Production Sharing Agreements (2008); On Credit Histories (2009);
Concessions (2011); On Public-Private Partnerships (2012); and On Investment
Agreements (2016). Their mechanisms include:
 Income tax exemptions based on amount invested.

 Tax and customs benefits for relevant machinery and equipment for energy production.
 Legal status for the investor, such as the right to transfer profits abroad.
 Capital protection, with legal frameworks, partnership and investment agreements.
It is only comparatively recent that developments facilitating private-sector participation in

the power sector have appeared. As the first public-private partnership, Pamir Energy is a
concession agreement to serve Gorno-Badakhshan. In 2009, Sangtuda-1 HPP was
commissioned and is operated by Russia’s Unified Energy Systems, and in 2011
Sangtuda-2 HPP was commissioned in 2011 and is operated by Iran’s Sangob – both
hydro projects were carried out under a build-own-operate-transfer arrangement.
Recommendations
 Continue progress on power sector reforms:
> Support effective unbundling of Barqi Tojik and complete establishment of an
escrow account for the unbundled utilities.
> Accelerate establishment of an independent regulator.
> Support timely development of competitive electricity wholesale and retail markets,
overseen by an independent regulatory body with clear duties and appropriate
powers, to enable third-party access to the grid on non-discriminatory terms and to
help attract private-sector investment.
> Advance cost recovery efforts through tariff reform with an appropriate strategy to
handle current subsidies.
> Consider providing the regulatory authority the ability to compel relevant data
reporting from utilities on a regular basis.
49
3. ELECTRICITY
 Consider the case for privatising elements of the country’s generating capacity and
developing public-private partnerships to promote competition and operational
efficiency.
 Develop a transparent electricity tariff-setting methodology that will incentivise
investment in efficient power sector development and RD&D.
 Develop and introduce a framework for short- and long-term generation, transmission,
distribution and supply security, supported by targets and indicators to measure
progress.
 Prepare a plan to develop ancillary services, including storage and demand-side
response, to maintain network stability and security.
 Expedite the adoption of a network code for the electricity system, including rules and
standards for variable renewable energy integration.
 Continue encouraging cross-border electricity trading to optimise resource use and
enhance energy security.
50
3. ELECTRICITY
References
ENERGY SECURITY
ADB (Asian Development Bank) (2021), Republic of Tajikistan: Power Sector Development
Program, Updated Project Administration Manual,
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/project-documents/53315/53315-001-pam-en_0.pdf.
ADB (2017), Tajikistan Power Sector Development Master Plan,
https://mewr.tj/wp-content/uploads/files/Power_Sector_Master_Plan-Vol1.pdf.
Anti-monopoly Service, Republic of Tajikistan, http://www.ams.tj
Barqi Tojik, Generation, http://barqitojik.tj/about/dependents/generation
EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) (2022),
Tajikistan – Transition Report 2021-22: System upgrade,
https://www.ebrd.com/publications/transition-report-202122-tajikistan.
EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) (2020), Tajikistan Energy
Efficiency Framework, London,
https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/project-information/board-
documents/1395294441448/Tajikistan_Energy_Efficiency_Framework_Board_Report.pdf?
blobnocache=true
(database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics. (accessed 10 June 2022)
IEA (2021), Cross-Border Electricity Trading for Tajikistan: A Roadmap, IEA, Paris,
https://www.iea.org/reports/cross-border-electricity-trading-for-tajikistan-a-roadmap/tajik-
context.
Max Bell School of Public Policy (2020), Planning for Power Purchase Agreement
Negotiations: Republic of Tajikistan, July 2020,
https://www.mcgill.ca/maxbellschool/files/maxbellschool/_policy_lab_2020_-
_planning_for_power_purchase_agreement_ppa_negotiations_in_the_republic_of_tajikistan.
pdf
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources (web page), http://mewr.gov.tj/ru
http://barqitojik.tj/about/dependents/generation/OECD (2019), Tajikistan’s sustainable
infrastructure investments, Sustainable Infrastructure for Low-Carbon Development in
Central Asia and the Caucasus, December 2019, https://www.oecd-
ilibrary.org/environment/sustainable-infrastructure-for-low-carbon-development-in-central-
asia-and-the-caucasus_d1aa6ae9-en
President of the Republic of Tajikistan (2018), Послание Президента Республики
Таджикистан Маджлиси Оли Республики Таджикистан [Message of the President of the
Republic of Tajikistan to Majlisi Oli of the Republic of Tajikistan],
http://www.prezident.tj/ru/node/19089.
TajStat (2022), Real Economy Indicators, 2012-2022,
https://stat.ww.tj/library/en/real_economy_indicators.xls
UNDP Human Development Reports, Tajikistan,
https://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/TJK#
World Bank (2013), Tajikistan's Winter Energy Crisis: Electricity Supply and Demand
Alternatives,
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ECAEXT/Resources/TAJ_winter_energy_27112012_En
g.pdf
51
ENERGY SECURITY
4. Coal
Key data
(2020)
Coal production: 2.1 Mt (0.94 Mtoe, 96% hard coal), +945% since 2010
Net trade: Negligible, average share of coal supply 1.9% (2010-2020)
Share of coal: 37.3% of domestic energy production, 26.3% of TES, 8.2% of electricity
generation, 16.2% of TFC
Coal consumption by sector: 1.2 Mtoe (electricity and heat generation 48.0%, industry
26.8%, residential 24.2%, other/unspecified 0.9%)
Overview
Coal has rapidly become a key source of TES in Tajikistan (26.3% in 2020), after having
a share below 10% in 2012. It is the second-largest source of electricity production (8% in
2020) and accounts for most of Tajikistan’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fuel
combustion (53% in 2020). Domestic coal production has increased notably in the last
decade, by over tenfold, partially driven by demand from the coal-fired power plant
commissioned in 2015. As of 2022, coal trade plays only a minor role.
Energy security concerns and problems related to seasonality of the hydropower

generation in Tajikistan amplified the significance of exploiting the country’s rich coal
reserves. The government considers the coal industry one of the most important structures
of the fuel and energy complex and set ambitious goals to support sustainable production
and industry development that has a history of over a century in the country.
The National Development Strategy to 2030 and the Concept of Coal Industry
Development for the Period up to 2040 provide forecasts and related implementation
measures for developing the country’s coal sector in two stages, from 2019 to 2029 and
from 2030 to 2040, including the following areas:
 growth of potential at the first stage until 2030 from 2.6 Mt to 5 Mt and at the second stage
to 15 Mt, open-pit mining would account for 41.7% of coal production, from 94% in 2018,
and underground mining would make up 58.3% of coal production, up from 6% in 2018”
 creation of new jobs in mining and related industrial fields, with an increase of employment
by over 2.2 times, from 1 648 to 3 650, at the first stage and 5.5 times, to 9 064 people, at
the second stage
 increase of value-added tax (VAT) payments by 3.4 times at the first and by 13.8 times at
the second stage

 increasing the level of industrial and environmental safety indicators and standards in the
industry.
53
4. COAL
Implementing these targets is carried out in accordance with the Laws on Coal and on
State Forecasts, Concepts, Strategies and Programs of Socio-Economic Development, as
well as on the Strategy 2030, the Concept of Coal Industry Development for the Period up
to 2040, the Strategy for the Development of Industry of the Republic of Tajikistan for the
Period up to 2030 and government resolution No. 523 On the Concept of Industrial
Development of the Republic of Tajikistan.
Resources
Tajikistan is endowed with sizeable coal reserves. According to official data (Tajiki Ministry
of Industry and New Technologies, 2022), there are 21 coal deposits with total reserves of
3.6 billion tonnes of anthracite, bituminous coal and lignite. This includes estimated
reserves of 73.4% (2 656 Mt), preliminarily estimated reserves of 17.8% (641.5 Mt) and
industrial reserves of 8.8% (317.2 Mt) of coal with high calorific value.
The government considers utilising the country’s rich coal reserves as the key to energy
security and industrial development. Its long-term strategy aims for the stable expansion
of the coal industry to support socio-economic development and industrial production of
coal to boost power and heat generation, the chemical industry, production of building
materials, coal-synthetic gas, and mineral fertilisers. The Concept of Coal development
pledges support to attract investments in modern technologies and allows for a wide range
of ventures for creating new enterprises for the extraction and processing of coal reserves,
strengthening the state budget and improving the welfare of the country's population.
Supply and demand

Production
Tajikistan’s coal production increased from 0.2 Mt in 2000 to 2.1 Mt in 2020. A large
majority, around 96% of the production, consists of bituminous coal.
Figure 4.1 Share of coal in Tajikistan’s energy system, 1990-2020

Shares (%)
50 1990
40 2000
2010
30
2020
20
10
Domestic energy production Total energy supply Electricity generation* Total final consumption
Coal’s importance in the energy system has increased in the last decade.
* Coal use for electricity generation started in 2015.
54
4. COAL
The rapid growth in production created competitive development of state and non-state
ENERGY SECURITY
enterprises operating in the coal sector. In 2018 coal mining by state-owned enterprises
amounted to 55%, with the remaining 45% private sector; 94% of all production was open-
pit and 6% underground.
Figure 4.2 Tajikistan’s coal production, 2000-2020

Mt
2.5 Brown coal
2.0
Hard coal
1.5
Domestic
1.0 supply*
0.5
Coal production has seen over a tenfold increase in the last decade.
* Small quantities of coal imports and exports are not shown.
Notes: Hard coal includes anthracite and other bituminous coal; brown coal includes sub-bituminous coal and lignite.
According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, by 2019 only 11 enterprises
were operating out of an initial 18 licence holders, as 7 of them could not have their
exploration licence renewed due to insufficient production. The steady increase in coal
production was due to employing modern machinery and equipment, 96.7% of which goes
to the following five companies: industrial enterprises Fon-Yagnob 43.9% and Ziddi 9.7%;
to TALCO-Resource Ltd 20.3%; to the KMT Ltd 19.8%; and to OJSC Angisht 3.1%, and
which also make a significant contribution to the development of the sector.
Trade
The contribution of Tajikistan’s coal trade to domestic supply is limited, averaging 2% of
supply between 2010 and 2020. Coal is both imported and exported with neighbours, likely
linked to transport logistics.
[2019 ministry data] Sales of coal in this period amounted to 1.960 Mt, including 51.6% to
the Power and Heating Centre-2 in Dushanbe, 31.3% to industrial enterprises, 13.2% to
the residential sector, 3.0% of budgetary institutions and 0.9% for exports.
55
4. COAL
Figure 4.3 Tajikistan’s hard coal trade, 2017-2020

kt
60
Kyrgyzstan
40
Pakistan
20
Others
Net trade
-20
-40
-60
2017 2018 2019 2020 IEA. All rights reserved.
Coal trade represents only a fraction of the supply.

Note: Hard coal includes anthracite and other bituminous coal.
Consumption
Coal demand was 2.1 Mt (0.96 Mtoe) in 2020 (an increase of over tenfold since 2010).
Bituminous coal accounts for over 95% of the demand, the rest consisting of lignite. Most
coal (48% of the total) was used for electricity and heat production, 26% by industry and
24% in the residential sector. Other reported consumption was minuscule. In 2020, coal
provided 8% of Tajikistan’s electricity.
Figure 4.4 Coal demand by sector, 2000-2020

Mtoe
Other*
1.00
Electricity and
0.80 heat generation
Industry
0.60
Residential
0.40
Unspecified**
0.20
Coal consumption has increased in several key sectors.

* Includes commercial and public services, transport, agriculture and forestry.
** Includes industry and residential use until 2015.
According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, in 2018, the joint-stock
company (JSC) Dushanbe-2 TPP consumed 831 kilotonnes (kt) (or 46.8% of the total
sales of coal); industrial enterprises, 708.9 kt (40%); residential, 145.6 kt (8%); public
institutions, 55.3 kt (2.7%); and exports, 44.4 kt (2.5%).
The total supply of coal to Dushanbe-2 TPS in 2019 increased further and amounted to
over a million tonnes, which included replenishment of 2019/20 autumn-winter storage for
Heating Plant 2 and the boiler house Sharqi. On implementation of the government Order
56
4. COAL
No. 117 "On timely preparation of economic and social sectors of the country for regular
ENERGY SECURITY
and effective activities in the autumn-winter period 2019-2020", adopted on 29 March
2019, the ministry reported a delivery of 92% of planned storage volumes, despite the
availability of coal reserves in the warehouses of coal mining company Fon-Yagnob. Coal
storage reserves, taking into account the balance of 2018 in the warehouses of coal
enterprises as of 1 January 2020, is more than 440 kt.
Coal mining policy

The Strategy 2030 specifies accelerated industrialisation as one of the country’s top
priorities. The government’s attempt to create favourable conditions for reviewing,
improving, modernising and expanding fixed industrial assets and sustainably developing
priority areas of economic security has been further elaborated in sectoral development
programmes, including the Strategy of Industry Development for the Period up to 2030,
adopted on 25 March 2018. The Concept of Coal Industry Development for the Period up
to 2040, approved by government resolution No. 436 on 30 August 2019, further
elaborates on long-term prospects and development priorities as well as the role of rational
and effective use of the country’s rich mineral resources in delivering national strategic
goals.
The Coal Industry Concept proposes a plan to reach target indicators of the Strategy 2030,
implemented in two phases between 2019-2029 and 2030-2040, and projects an increase
of coal production by 7.6 times (compared with 2016) or 10.4 Mt by 2030, and an increase
of 11 times or 15 Mt by 2040.
The Coal Concept places great importance on stable development and technological
modernisation of the coal industry, and subsequent supply diversification of industrial
enterprises as one of the key features for the country’s steady economic development. It
encourages coal market development on a competitive basis to boost private
entrepreneurial initiatives, creating favourable investment conditions, and contributing to
an increase in both domestic consumption and exports of coal and a range of coal
products.
Sector structure
The Ministry of Industry and New Technologies is the government entity responsible for
coal policy setting and overseeing its implementation from 2013.
The national coal company, Angishti Tojik (the Tajik Coal), is the responsible state entity
for operating of state-owned companies and assets in the coal sector, overseeing the
condition of the state mining deposits, implementing production licences and operating
subsidiary enterprises, including the Ziddi Coal Mine.
Dushanbe-2 TPP, a subsidiary of Barqi Tojik, is the largest consumer of coal produced in
Tajikistan at present. It is a 400 MW subcritical coal-fired co-generation station in the
capital city of Tajikistan, supplied from Ziddi coal deposits. Construction of the first stage
of two 50 MW units commenced in November 2012, following the signature of an

intergovernmental agreement between Tajikistan and China, and were commissioned in
57
4. COAL
2014. The second stage of constructing two 150 MW co-generation plants started in
September 2014, and the two new units were commissioned in December 2016.
Coal prices are regulated by market (or contract) and the government bars coal subsidies
to encourage competitive development of the coal industry in Tajikistan.
R&D and technology development

The Coal Concept highlights that the industry development depends on the successful use
of mature advanced technologies and refers to a range of programmes and policies for
directions of innovative industrial development for fuelling country’s economy. It refers to
the Programme of Innovative Development of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2011-2020,
approved by government decree No. 227 on 30 April 2011, as the main instrument
supporting the deployment of modern technologies for increased productivity and
competitiveness, ensuring sustainable use of energy resources and ensuring
environmental safety of industrial development.
The scientific and technical policy in Tajikistan’s coal industry should be aimed at activating
innovation processes, introducing new technologies, developing the national scientific and
technical potential, eliminating obstacles between science and production, and attracting
and introducing new foreign technologies and international quality standards into
production. The main directions of technology development and strengthening the
scientific and technical base of the coal industry are:
 Improvement of the regulatory framework of the coal industry (technical regulation, testing
facilities for mining equipment, mining transport).
 Development of projects to improve the existing technology and introduce modern
equipment for coal mining, enrich and integrate development of deposits, and increase
surplus value when setting prices for coal products.
 Strengthening the production base of industrial enterprises using sectoral grant funds,
contracting companies and attracting foreign investment.
In Tajikistan’s coal mining industry there is an acute shortage of highly qualified specialists,
especially in the field of development, adaptation and management of innovative
technologies and mining, as well as carrying out sound economic analysis of domestic and
neighbouring/foreign markets for the implementation of new scientific and technical
developments in production. The Coal Concept tasks academic and sectoral research
institutions and institutions of higher education with encouraging preparation of the
professional fleet and intensifying the practice of commercialisation of innovative projects.
Assessment
Coal mining continues to break records in Tajikistan. This fast-paced increase in
production and trade leads to the generation of industrial waste and a substantial increase
in emissions, and affects the environment.
Industry representatives, supporting the development of the coal sector, call the full-
fledged transition to this fossil fuel “a spirit of the times” and stress that without utilising
coal in energy, chemical and other industrial sectors, the republic has limited development
58
4. COAL
prospects. The authorities prefer to emphasise new jobs and benefits for the economy, but
ENERGY SECURITY
are silent about the environmental and social consequences.
Representatives of the scientific community and environmental organisations call for the
return to coal (or coal renaissance) to be a short-term solution to pressing economic
problems, point to its far-reaching consequences, and note the responsibility to the
environment and future generations. Concerns are also raised about implementation of
rushed policy measures being at odds with the best industry standards. Creating
favourable conditions attracted investments in “dirty fuel”, despite environmental and
social risks, and they are pressing for transparency and adherence to the highest
standards at all stages of sector and related industry developments.
The government needs to place a high importance on regular environmental monitoring of

the main areas of coal mining and processing, as well as solving issues of effective use of
its resources. Fast-paced developments, however, risk the negative results of excessive
coal mining, production waste increases, and the soil layer becoming rough and the
atmosphere polluted, unless given highest-priority attention in the future.
Policy documents require strict adherence to national environmental norms and

regulations, including the Subsoil Act, in place as well as international standards relating
to the extraction and processing of projected subsoil reserves.
Recommendations
 Adhere to the highest environmental and social standards in fostering coal sector
developments, consistent with the Strategy 2030 and broader long-term energy,
industry and coal sector strategies.
 Ensure decisions are based on fair assessment of costs and transparent
accountability, barring cross-subsidies between power producers and coal mines,
providing the private sector an opportunity to develop and compete in this fast-paced
national coal market expansion.
 Restructure the public sector, targeting privatisation in the medium term and focusing
on competitiveness: closing unprofitable mines and/or tendering mines with higher
potential for new licences, directing investment towards profitable mines, optimising
use of mining assets and avoiding overstaffing of mines, etc.
 Given the implications for local air quality, establish a comprehensive strategy to phase
out direct, small-scale coal use in the residential sector in rural areas, and replace it
with cleaner sources, as well as use world-class technology for coal power plants.
 Establish a stakeholder consultation process to examine social and environmental
concerns surrounding existing and new mining undertakings.
 Address the social and environmental impacts of coal mine operations and/or closures,
in accordance with the best practices worldwide. Address social impacts and ensure
retraining coal miners in case of mine closures.
59
4. COAL
 Employ strict environmental regulation and ensure adherence to the highest

environmental and safety standards in all coal-fired generation and coal-based
industrial developments.
 Seek unreserved support to RD&D in the coal sector and promote technology
adaptation to fit the national characteristics of coal sector development and sustainable
economic developments and green growth.
 Continue evaluating mineral deposits to encourage investments required for achieving
the country's economic goals for increased gross industrial output and related
employment.
 Develop, together with industry, options to facilitate coal-fired power plants to meet the
air quality requirements to the highest industrial standards and prepare for the eventual
reduction in coal-fired capacity by replacing it with renewable energy, without hindering
security of electricity (energy) supply.
 Encourage specialised education and training of engineers and technical specialists,
aimed at adding a highly professional workforce to the country’s developing coal
sector, capable of managing state-of-the-art clean coal technologies and conducting
innovative activities aimed at minimising the environmental risks of coal use.
60
4. COAL
References
ENERGY SECURITY
CABAR (Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting) (2021), Is it possible to give up coal
in Tajikistan?, https://cabar.asia/en/is-it-possible-to-give-up-coal-in-tajikistan
Department of Geology, Republic of Tajikistan, http://www.gst.tj
Dushanbe District Heating Company, Dushanbe City Council, http://www.dushanbe.tj/ru
Dushanbe-2 power station, https://gem.wiki/Dushanbe-2_power_station, (accessed April
2022)
End Coal, Global Coal Plant Tracker, https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-
plant-tracker/ (accessed 10 June 2022).
Geological and Mineral Resources Map of Tajikistan, https://geoportal-tj.org/deposits/,
(accessed April 2022).
Idrisov, T. (2020), Tajikistan’s coal dilemma, CABAR,
https://cabar.asia/en/tajikistan-s-coal-dilemma.
IEA (International Energy Agency) (2022), World Energy Balances 2020 (database),
www.iea.org/statistics (accessed 10 June 2022).
Little Earth (2017), Review of the coal sector in Tajikistan, CEE Bankwatch Network,
December 2017, https://bankwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Tajikistan-coal.pdf
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Republic of Tajikistan, www.minjust.tj
Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, Republic of Tajikistan, http://www.sanoat.tj/
Ministry of Industry and New Technologies (2019), Summarizing the activities of enterprises
in the coal industry in 2019, Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, Tajik section,
http://sanoat.tj/?page_id=105 (accessed April 2022).
Order of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan of August 30, 2019 No. 436, The
concept of development of coal industry in the Republic of Tajikistan for the period till 2040,
https://cis-legislation.com/document.fwx?rgn=118905
Rasht power station, https://gem.wiki/Rasht_power_station, (accessed April 2022)
Shurab power station, https://gem.wiki/Shurab_power_station, (accessed April 2022)
TajStat (National Statistics Office of Tajikistan) (2019), Energy Balance of Tajikistan 2018,
TajStat, Dushanbe.
Umarov, T (2020), China looms large in Central Asia, 30 March 2020, Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/81402
(accessed April 2022).
Usmonov, F. (2019), Trends of Tajikistan coal sector, UNECE,
https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/23.%20Usmonov%20-
%20Trends%20of%20coal%20sector%20of%20Tajikistan.pdf
https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/23. Usmonov - Trends of coal sector of
Tajikistan.pdf
61
ENERGY SECURITY
5. Gas
Key data
(2020)
Domestic production: negligible (< 1 mcm, -97.0% since 2010)

Net imports: 0.23 bcm, +29.4% since 2010 (supplies were cut off from 2013-2017)
Share of natural gas: 5.3% of TES, 1.6% of electricity generation, 2.9% of TFC
Gas consumption by sector: 0.23 bcm (power generation 86.0%, industry [non-ferrous
metals] 9.5%, unspecified 4.5%)
Overview
Natural gas played a limited role in Tajikistan’s energy system before the supply
interruption in 2013, the share in TES being under 10%.
Tajikistan has negligible domestic gas production, so all demand is covered by imports, all
of which come from neighbouring Uzbekistan.
Since the resumption of the supply in 2018, gas has been increasingly used in power
generation and the non-ferrous metal industry.
Figure 5.1 Share of natural gas in Tajikistan’s energy system, 1990-2020

Share (%)
30 1990
2000
25
2010
20 2020
15
10
Domestic energy production Total energy supply Electricity generation Total final consumption IEA. All rights reserved.
The role of natural gas in the economy has been low in the last decade.
63
5. GAS
Supply and demand

Imports
Tajikistan’s natural gas production is negligible, so all supplies must be imported.
Uzbekistan is the sole supplier of natural gas to the country. In 2020, 0.23 billion cubic
metres (bcm) were imported through the pipeline.
Tajiktransgas imports natural gas from Uzbekistan and sells directly to Dushanbe-1 TPP
and TALCO.
Figure 5.2 Natural gas supply by source, 2000-2020

bcm
0.8 Imports
0.7 (Uzbekistan)
0.6 Domestic
0.5 production
0.4 Domestic
0.3 supply
0.2
0.1
Virtually all demand is met by imports from Uzbekistan.

Consumption
Domestic consumption of natural gas was 0.23 bcm in 2020. Since the resumption of gas
imports in 2018, the main gas-consuming sectors are power generation (86%) and the
non-ferrous metal industry (i.e. TALCO) (10%). Detailed consumption data are not
available for the period prior to the supply disruption, limiting the sectoral consumption
analysis.
Figure 5.3 Natural gas consumption by sector, 2009-2020

bcm
0.8 Unspecified*
0.7
Industry
0.6
0.5 Electricity and heat
0.4 generation
0.3
0.2
0.1
Natural gas consumption was halted in 2013 and resumed only in 2018.
* The share of unallocated gas consumption of the total was notable in Tajikistan in the past, limiting the sectoral
analysis.
64
5. GAS
Exploration and production/upstream
ENERGY SECURITY
The natural gas sector is mainly owned and operated by the state. While the MEWR is
responsible for sectoral policy, OJSC Tajiktransgaz carries out exploration and production
activities and has a few production-sharing agreements (PSAs) with foreign investors.
In 2008, the first-ever PSA between the government of Tajikistan and Tethys Petroleum
Limited was signed. The PSA provided 34 785 km2 (8.6 million acres) to Tethys subsidiary
Kulob Petroleum Limited in south-western Tajikistan, covering Kulob Square, a large, high-
prospect but relatively unexplored region. It also covered Hatlon Square and the area
surrounding Dushanbe, with more than 50 prospective sites.
In June 2013, Tethys, Total and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a
PSA to develop the Bokhtar field and create the Bokhtar Operating Company (BOC). The
government also added four more prospective fields with a total area of 1 186.37 km2 when
BOC was created. Total and CNPC each hold a 33.335% stake, and Tethys retained
33.33%.
The government, in its questionnaire submission, reported 762 000 cubic metres in 2021.
Gas transportation and transit infrastructure

The government also supports construction of the Line D gas pipeline, part of the Central
Asia-China pipeline system that is to transit gas from Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to China. Line D is to be about 1 000 km long, with 425 km in
Tajikistan. The Chinese government plans to finance the project.
Gas market structure

The gas sector is owned and operated by the state through the transmission system
operator (TSO) and 11 regional distribution system operators (DSOs), which are also
retailers. Tajiktransgas is the gas importer and TSO, and it operates the central dispatch.
The DSOs have been financially unbundled from Tajiktransgas since 2009 and are in state
ownership. The government is planning to privatise the gas sector by selling the DSOs,
but none have been sold to date, partly due to a lack of rules on third-party access.
Institutional and regulatory framework

OJSC Tajiktransgas is responsible for the transmission of gas distribution for the entire
country. Petroleum Sugd, JSC Naftogas and BOC are engaged in gas exploration and
production; JSC Gazprom Neft in gas import and distribution; and JSC Allat in gas import
and distribution.
The Trans-Tajik Gas Pipeline Company (TTGP) was established by Tajiktransgas and
CNPC for the construction of the Tajik Line D section of the Turkmenistan-China pipeline.
65
5. GAS
The natural gas pipelines in Tajikistan are ageing, and Tajiktransgas maintainsthe pipeline
from Uzbekistan to Dushanbe-1 TPP and TALCO. As for LPG, the infrastructure is fairly
new and in very good condition.
Gas imports, solely from Uzbekistan, remain small, although there are plans to increase it
in coming years, if plans for construction of additional co-generation stations are
commissioned.
Prices
The current price for Uzbekistan gas imports for over 200 mcm is set at USD 100 per cubic
metre. Tajikistan subsidises natural gas imports from Uzbekistan with electricity.
Barqi Tojik resells it, without subsidies, to its two main customers, Dushanbe-1 TPP at
USD 151.79, and to TALCO at USD 141.81.
LPG is imported mainly from Kazakhstan at market price and is distributed and sold in
Tajikistan without subsidies.
Assessment
Tajikistan started providing natural gas to its population in 1958. In the same year, the
Department for Gasification under the Ministry of Public Utilities of the Tajik Soviet Socialist
Republic and the Dushanbegaz gas utility were established. In 1959, liquefied gas storage
tanks were constructed in Navobod, Rudaki District, and in Gafurov, Sughd Region.
Liquefied gas was imported from refineries in Bashkorostan, Tatarstan and Orenburg in
Russia, while natural gas was supplied from Uzbekistan.
The connection of the population and industries to natural gas networks reached 90% in
cities and 55% in rural areas of southern and northern parts of Tajikistan, where gas was
primarily used as a heat source for households. By the 1990s, gas consumption reached
1.8 bcm a year. In 2013, the natural gas supply from Uzbekistan was cut off, forcing
domestic and industry customers to switch to alternative fuels, such as coal, fuel oil and
liquefied gas.
The natural gas supply from Uzbekistan was restored in 2018, following the signature of
an agreement on enhanced economic co-operation that included reinstating natural gas
supply to Tajikistan. Currently, natural gas is used by large enterprises such as the
Dushanbe-1 TPP co-generation plant and TALCO. In 2021, the gas supply to Tajikistan
totalled 236 120 cubic metres. Feasibility studies for construction of a new gas-fired
Dushanbe-3 are under way, and if construction gets the green light, the government plans
to increase natural gas imports from Uzbekistan to up to 1 bcm to satisfy the country’s
growing demand for natural gas.
The restoration of natural gas supplies from Uzbekistan offers Tajikistan an opportunity to
return to a cleaner alternative to the country’s growing coal industry and help reduce its
rising greenhouse gas emissions as well as the industry’s negative environmental impact
on livelihoods and wildlife habitat. This move would be in line with the Strategy 2030, which
envisages the diversification of the country's electric energy system capacity by at least
10%, amongst other sources of energy including gas and renewable energy.
66
5. GAS
There are multiple benefits to reintroducing natural gas use in households and/or small
ENERGY SECURITY
and medium enterprises (SMEs) originally designed for natural gas use. However, this
move will require significant investment in network rehabilitation, which could be achieved
with substantial sector reforms aimed at removing subsidies, establishing cost recovery
tariffs and opening the natural gas market.
Recommendations
 Continue fulfilling gas transit obligations.
 Support sector restructuring and creation of a gas market, as gas imports increase.
 Assess feasibility for the construction of a new gas-fired TPP in Dushanbe and to the
extent possible in other urban settlements, primarily for heat supply.
 Ensure that any data collected from household and industry are passed on to TajStat
in a timely manner.
67
5. GAS
References
(database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics. (accessed 10 June 2022)Ministry of
Energy and Water Resources, Republic of Tajikistan, http://mewr.gov.tj/ru
Order of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan of August 1, 2006 No. 364, "About
approval of the List of buildings, constructions, the equipment and other property, plant and
equipment (funds) of the state companies which provision in lease irrespective of term is
performed in coordination with authorized state body" (as amended on 28 December 2006).
68
6. District heating
Key data
(2020)
District heat generation: 7.2 PJ/0.17 Mtoe (coal 77.6%, natural gas* 22.4%), +128% since
2000
District heat consumption**: 0.17 Mtoe
* Output estimated based on natural gas inputs
** Data on distribution losses and detailed consumption not available
Overview
Total district heat generation was 0.17 Mtoe in 2020, the main energy source being coal
(78% share of the total in 2020). District heat utilisation has ramped up rapidly since the
commissioning of the Dushanbe co-generation plant in 2013. Prior to 2013, some district
heat was generated with natural gas, but it was stopped in 2013 due to the lack of supply.
Gas use for district heat production was restored in 2019, following the re-establishment
of natural gas supplies from Uzbekistan.
District heating is available only in Dushanbe, which has a population of around 778 500.
A total of 2 950 buildings are connected to the system in Dushanbe, but due to the
condition of the network, heat is provided to only 1 073 houses/multistorey buildings,
104 schools and hospitals, and 137 enterprises and organisations. The system does not
have meters at the generation facilities or interfaces between the transmission and
distribution systems or at customer level. The total length of the district heating network is
423 km, currently with 64 pumping stations. In addition, there are 11 heat-only boilers
which are operated by Dushanbe District Heating Company personnel that provide heat to
dedicated heat users such as hospitals and schools.
The government made it mandatory (Decree 364, August 2016) for all new buildings to be
connected to district heating. This factor, along with the developing heat network, is
stimulating construction of new co-generation plants. The government is planning to
develop a third co-generation plant in Dushanbe by 2030.
No data are available on heat losses in the network. Therefore, the reported consumption
of heat equals the production. All heat was reportedly consumed in the residential sector.
69
6. DISTRICT HEATING
Generation
Heat is generated from four sources: Heating Plant 1 (natural gas/mazut), Heating Plant 2
(coal), West Hear Station (natural gas/coal) and East Heat Station (natural gas/coal). All
of these heat-generating sources are owned by the state national energy company OJSC
Barqi Tojik. The State Unitary Enterprise Dushanbe District Heating Company, 100%
owned by the City of Dushanbe, is the entity responsible for distribution of the heat in
Dushanbe. Barqi Tojik generates the heat and delivers it to the pumping stations, a point
of the delineation of responsibility between Barqi Tojik and Dushanbe District Heating from
where the company distributes heat to its customers.
Figure 6.1 Heat generation by source, 2000-2020

PJ 1 000 Gcal
8 200 Natural gas
7 175
Coal
6 150
5 125
4 100
3 75
2 50
1 25
Almost 80% of district heat is derived from coal.

Note: PJ = petajoules; Gcal = gigacalories.
Supply and demand

District heating is available and operational only in Dushanbe, where its district heating
system is made up of a co-generation plant and numerous large and small boiler houses.
Nevertheless, Dushanbe’s daily electricity consumption, which in the summer totals
5 million kWh, prior to district heating supply infrastructure rehabilitation saw increases in
the winter to 15 million kWh because the population uses electric devices for heat when
the centralised heating system is not functioning.
The government has therefore invested heavily in rehabilitation to improve heat supplies
in Dushanbe in recent years, and thereby reduce overall winter electricity deficiencies in
Tajikistan. An East heat station has been constructed and the West heat station was
rehabilitated, while an additional 400 MW power plant was also built and most heat
pipelines have been rehabilitated. Simultaneously, the population is legally obliged to
restore radiators in apartments to receive heat from the centralised heating system to
reduce electricity consumption. Reducing consumption quickly is imperative: in 2017,
Tajikistan exhausted its power supply by mid-January, whereas in previous years the
supply had lasted until February/March. Since 2017, there has been no official winter
electricity shortage for the residential sector in Tajikistan.
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6. DISTRICT HEATING
Table 6.1 Dushanbe heat supply

No. Plant Electricity Heat capacity Type of fuel
capacity MW Gcal per hour
1 Dushanbe-1 198 357 Natural gas
2 Dushanbe-2 400 234 Coal
210 Natural gas
3 West Heat Station
20 Coal
60 Natural gas
4 East Heat Station
10 Coal
The heat supply in Dushanbe is provided by TPP1, TPP2, and the West Heat and East Heat Stations. Dushanbe-1
(mazut and gas) and Dushanbe-2 (coal) as well as the West and East Boilers are owned by the generation company
Barqi Tojik
Source: In-depth review questionnaire submission 2022.
Dushanbe-1 (mazut and gas) and Dushanbe-2 (coal) as well as the West and East Boilers
are owned by the generation company Barqi Tojik. The only district heating network in the
country exists in Dushanbe, and therefore this belongs to the state-owned company
Dushanbe District Heating Company.
District heating infrastructure modernisation

According to the official data, around 3 000 buildings are connected to the central heating
supply in Dushanbe. Increasing the city’s connection to heat supply is continuing, and the
government on 30 May 2015 adopted the Resolution “On the implementation of additional
measures to provide the population and various socio-economic sectors of the city of
Dushanbe with heat”. According to this document, the Administration of Dushanbe, the
OJSC Barqi Tojik and the Committee for Architecture and Construction under the
Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, while granting permits for new facilities in
Dushanbe, will take into account the mandatory connection to the centralised heating
networks, along with the city administration’s strong efforts to connect existing
administrative and residential buildings to the networks. The responsible state bodies are
actively involved in this process, and preventive work by the population is also being
carried out to repair radiators at their own residences.
At the same time, outside the city of Dushanbe small boiler houses are used which provide
heat, mainly to public buildings as well as some multi-apartment houses. In most cases,
each small boiler house serves from one to three buildings and is operated by the state
unitary enterprise (SUE) Khojagi Manzili va Komunali. The company covers territories
outside Dushanbe. Previously, it owned 56 small boiler houses, however only 9 of them
are still in working order. Most small boilers were originally designed to use gas as fuel,
but they were transferred to coal because of the lack of natural gas and its high price. As
a result, the efficiency of these boiler houses has significantly decreased – to around 40-
50% – while local pollution has increased due to inefficient flue gas cleaning systems
(where they exist). Despite rehabilitating a number of boiler houses in recent years (for
example, in Gissar, Khujand, Rudaki and Vakhdat), the degraded condition or dismantling
of the in-house heating infrastructure creates a serious impediment to the renewal of heat
supply.
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6. DISTRICT HEATING
In addition, small boiler houses (with an estimated installed capacity of 0.6 Gcal/hour to 4
Gcal/hour) working off coal or electricity are owned and operated by a number of state-
funded institutions. Only 182 of the more than 1 000 state-owned boilers are in working
order.
Households not connected to the central heating systems (CHS) and living in apartment
buildings rely mainly on electricity to meet their heating needs, while private homes
produce about one-third of their total heat using electricity, wood and coal. According to
World Bank data, for the country as a whole the most common main source of heat supply
is coal or biomass stoves used by more than 74% of all households, followed by electricity
(18%), individual boilers and CHS. In urban areas, about 48% of households use electricity
for heating, followed by ovens (37%), individual boilers and CHS. The use of inefficient
and polluting coal or biomass furnaces has a detrimental effect on human health and the
environment.
In particular, according to the World Health Organization, Tajikistan is among the

25 countries with the highest rates of morbidity due to indoor air pollution – it is one of the
few countries in which indoor air pollution causes more deaths and disabilities than
smoking. In 2010, 64 out of every 100 000 deaths were attributed to indoor air pollution
due to the use of solid fuels, which was the third-highest cause of death in Tajikistan. It
should also be noted that at present some IFIs (World Bank, GIZ [the German Agency for
International Cooperation]) are advancing new energy-efficient stoves/furnaces in the
country that should significantly reduce indoor air pollution, and for this purpose they are
developing affordable financial portfolios for the population through local microfinance
organisations.
According to the Agency for Forestry under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan,
over the last 50 years the volume of forests has decreased by more than 70%. The
government is taking special measures to prevent uncontrolled deforestation and avoid
possible ecological catastrophe. This deforestation has meant that during the wintertime,
local populations in the rural areas, who do not have permanent access to electricity and
cannot cut down trees, face high costs of wood supplies. In this regard, in Tajikistan there
is currently a lack of alternatives to coal use during winter in the rural areas.
There is a general lack of information on energy consumption from the consumer side.
According to the Agency on the Statistics under the President of Tajikistan, there is
particularly a vacuum for obtaining information on energy consumption at household level
– it is difficult to keep track of how much energy each household uses to meet its own
needs. Moreover, information is practically absent at the level of the regions where the
population usually uses coal, wood and biomass (mainly animal dung) for heating. In this
regard, at the moment TajStat together with the World Bank is developing a sample
questionnaire which should level out this information vacuum.
Following developments in recent years, and actions the government took to replace
district heating with coal, it is evident that heat supply in Dushanbe for the foreseeable
future will be provided predominantly by coal-based TPPs and boiler stations. Coal is also
very popular in those regions with limited access to electricity.
Regarding renewable heat, electricity continues to be one of the main sources for heating
(95% of electricity production is from HPP). Wood use is limited because of laws restricting
unauthorised deforestation and the high price of wood. The use of biomass (mainly animal
dung) is also very popular in Tajikistan.
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6. DISTRICT HEATING
Regulation and prices

The subsidised price for the population in 2021 for heating was TJS 1 18 (Tajikistan
somoni) per square metre (including VAT). For state-funded organisations it was
TJS 98 67 for 1 Gcal (excluding VAT). Other consumers pay TJS 113 46 for 1 Gcal
(excluding VAT).
Assessment
Access to reliable and affordable heat supply is essential for the welfare of the population
and the provision of public services in Tajikistan. Given the cold climate and long winters,
which stretch from three to more than six months, access to reliable heat supply services
in the country is linked to pressing needs. Heat supply provided by the (CHS) dramatically
decreased after the country gained independence in 1991, with the subsequent collapse
of regional energy co-operation in Central Asia.
In the past, around 35% of urban households consumed heat from the CHS that existed
in Dushanbe, Khujand, Kulob, Chkalovsk, Yovon and Qurgon-Teppa. In Dushanbe and in
Yovon, heat supply was provided by TPPs and large boiler houses, while in other cities
only large boiler houses, working mainly on natural gas, were used in heating. With the
exception of Dushanbe, Tajikistan’s CHS were decommissioned and dismantled in the
1990s and early 2000s due to rising gas prices, interruptions in gas supplies from
Uzbekistan and the obsolete CHS infrastructure, caused by inadequate investment and
lack of appropriate maintenance.
Currently the CHS covers only about 3.5% of urban households. These are mainly
households living in Dushanbe, where the central hearing (CH) is operated by TPP-1, TPP-
2 and the large East and West Boiler houses (heat stations). In addition, small central
heating systems are available in cities such as Vakhdat, Vose, Gissar, Zafarobod, Rudaki,
Temurmalik and Khujand. Heating in these cities is carried out by small thermal boilers. In
general, the remaining systems of the country’s CHS are in unsatisfactory condition due
to their age, lack of investment in overhaul and modernisation, inadequate maintenance,
and provision of untreated water (in particular during the 1990s). As a result of the
deterioration in reliability of the CHS, many of the urban households that were previously
connected to the CHS have dismantled their radiators and heating pipes. This creates
serious difficulty for the renewal of heat supply, even after the overhaul of the heating
plants.
Most of the remaining assets of the CHS are operated for only a small fraction of their
designed capacity and are characterised by high losses, increasing pollution and low
efficiency, in part due to the transition from gas to coal without the use of modern flue gas
cleaning systems.
Low tariffs are also a significant contributor to the ageing of the heating sector. Tariffs for
heat and electricity are much lower than the level of cost recovery; as a result, heat supply
companies operate at a loss and do not have sufficient funds to ensure proper
maintenance and overhaul. This leads to the continuous obsolescence of assets,
inefficiencies, poor quality of service and deterioration in the reliability of heat supply. As
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6. DISTRICT HEATING
a result, the heating sector has become highly dependent on direct subsidies from state
or municipal budgets that are used to cover more than 50% of the estimated revenues of
the sector.
As a result of the deterioration in district heating services, most households in urban areas
use electricity for heating, which highlights the shortage of electricity during the winter
when high dependence on the use of electricity for heating is one of the key factors for
increasing electricity consumption in this period. In Dushanbe alone, until 2016 electricity
consumption in the winter months more than doubled in comparison with the summer
months. In combination with the unsatisfactory condition of the ageing energy
infrastructure and the low generation of hydroelectric power in winter, this increase in
electricity demand exacerbates the shortage of electricity in winter.
According to World Bank data, in view of the limited choice of alternative fuel sources and
lack of access to CHS or reliable electricity supplies, more than a third of urban households
use inefficient and polluting coal or biomass furnaces. Outside of Dushanbe, around 37%
of urban households use traditional coal and wood stoves, which are associated with
detrimental social consequences due to their low efficiency and exposing people to smoke
and particulate matter indoors. These inefficient heating methods also force the population
to spend more on fuel than they would spend using more efficient alternative heating
options. The cost of solid fuels accounts for around 10% of all urban household
expenditure and about 15% of all rural household expenditure.
The energy efficiency of residential and public buildings is unsatisfactory, exacerbating the
gap between actual heat supply and the needs of subscribers. The age of housing stock,
inadequate maintenance and lack of proper insulation combine to create extremely high
heat loss and low comfort in many buildings. To meet the need to ensure a stable heat
supply to residential and public buildings requires a set of investments – both from the heat
supply enterprises and from the consumers of thermal energy.
Under these conditions of electricity deficit in Tajikistan, electric space heating puts the
greatest pressure on winter peak electricity demand. According to experts, switching away
from electric heating to district heating fired by alternative fuel in Dushanbe alone means
that district heating can phase out 47% of electricity consumption in winter. In this regard,
the government has begun to invest in the restoration of central heating to improve energy
efficiency, and investments have primarily gone to the capital where energy consumption
is highest.
The government has invested large sums for the rehabilitation and improvement of heat
supply in Dushanbe in recent years, thereby seeking to reduce winter deficiency in
Tajikistan. In particular the capital has seen the construction of the East Heat Station,
rehabilitation of the West Heat Station, construction of the 400 MW Dushanbe-2 and the
start of the process of rehabilitation of the city’s heat pipelines. At the same time the
government has introduced legislation requiring the population of Dushanbe to rehabilitate
their own radiators and main pipes in the buildings. All these measures have contributed
to reducing the energy shortage in Tajikistan, particularly since 2017 when the power
supply was completely exhausted by the middle of January, while the winter power limit
for the previous few years lasted to February and March.
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6. DISTRICT HEATING
Recommendations

 Develop a regulatory framework for the heating sector, one that promotes cost-
effectiveness, competition, efficiency and flexibility, including through sector
integration, and encourages investment for these purposes. Achieving these ends
would involve:
> Transitioning to a system of cost-reflective consumption-based energy tariffs,
which would enable heating sector to fully recover its costs and compete on equal
terms in the electricity and heat markets.
> Introducing efficiency improvement targets for heating sector.
> Encouraging private investment to modernise and rehabilitate district heating.
 Consolidate and co-ordinate policies in the areas of district heating and cooling, oil,
natural gas, coal, and energy efficiency, and support the development and
demonstration of efficient, integrated systems to supply heating, cooling and electricity
(tri-generation).
 Improve the energy efficiency of district heating through policies and programmes to:
> Replace old and inefficient boilers with modern ones.
> Replace old pipes with modern, pre-insulated ones.
> Install meters throughout the system – from boiler exit meters to building-level heat
meters – and introduce compulsory apartment-level metering for new buildings.
> Install energy controls, including individual heating substations and temperature-
regulating valves.
> Facilitate the establishment of ESCOs.
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6. DISTRICT HEATING
References
Dushanbe Teploset (Dushanbe District Heating Company), http://www.dushanbe.tj/ru
EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) (2021), Dushanbe district
heating project, https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/49375.html.
EBRD (2019), Tajikistan Dushanbe District Heating Modernisation, Stakeholder
Engagement Plan, https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/project-information/environment-
social-info-documents/1395296791251/GrCF2_W2_-
_Dushanbe_District_Heating_Project_SEP.pdf?blobnocache=true
(database),
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics. (accessed 10 June 2022)
Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, Coal Industry, Republic of Tajikistan,
http://sanoat.tj/?page_id=1184
Order of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan of August 1, 2006 No. 364, “About
approval of the List of buildings, constructions, the equipment and other property, plant and
equipment (funds) of the state companies which provision in lease irrespective of term is
performed in coordination with authorized state body” (as amended on 28 December 2006).
76
7. Oil
Key data: Oil
(2020)
Domestic production: negligible (25 kt, -18% since peak production in 2012)
Crude oil imports: small volumes from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan since 2018 (10 kt in
2020)
Oil product imports: 1.1 Mt (25.5 kb/d), +104.3% since 2010
Share of oil: 1.0% of domestic energy production, 29.4% of TES, 34.4% of electricity
generation, 34.4% of TFC
Consumption by sector: 1.1 Mt (road transport 86.5%, international bunkers 2.5%, industry
11.0%)
* Total energy supply does not include oil used for international bunkering
Overview
Tajikistan produces and refines small quantities of crude oil, but the large majority – over
95% – of the demand is satisfied by oil products.
Oil reserves, like other mineral resources are under state ownership and almost all
exploration and production are operated by the state. While the MEWR is responsible for
sectoral policy, OJSC Naftrason carry out exploration and production activities. They have
PSAs with numerous foreign investors.
In 2008, the first-ever PSA between the government of Tajikistan and Tethys Petroleum
Limited was signed. The PSA provided 34 785 km2 (8.6 million acres) to Tethys subsidiary
Kulob Petroleum Limited in south-western Tajikistan, covering Kulob Square, a large, high-
prospect but relatively unexplored region. It also covered Hatlon Square and the area
surrounding Dushanbe, with more than 50 prospective sites.
In June 2013, Tethys, Total and CNPC signed a PSA to develop the Bokhtar field and
create the BOC. The government also added four more prospective fields with a total area
of 1 186.37 km2 when BOC was created. Total and CNPC each hold a 33.335% stake,
and Tethys retained 33.33%.
Other, smaller private investors in Tajikistan’s oil and gas sector include CJSC Somon Oil;
90% of its equity belongs to the Swiss company DWM Petroleum AG, and the other 10%
belongs to Anavak LLC. Somon Oil, operating under a PSA since May 2012, is finishing
research work on two platforms: Western Sufatog in the Asht district on the border with
77
7. OIL
Uzbekistan, and Kayrokum B field near the Kayrokum reservoir. In the prospective areas
of Navobod and Obchai Kalacha, 2D seismic surveying was carried out over a distance of
123 km. The company has declared investments of TJS 2.5 million, and is investing
USD 6.2 million in exploration of prospective fields in north-western Tajikistan.
Oil has the second-largest share in the final consumption, one-third of the demand. Similar
to many countries, a majority of the oil is consumed in the transport sector. Specific to
Tajikistan is that the main road fuel is in fact LPG. Oil has never been used in power
generation.
Tajikistan currently has no known emergency stocks of crude or oil products, though
importers and sellers maintain some commercial stocks.
Figure 7.1 Share of oil in Tajikistan’s energy system, 1990-2020

Share (%)
35 1990
30 2000
25 2010
20 2020
15
10
Domestic energy production Total energy supply Total final consumption* IEA. All rights reserved.
The share of oil in Tajikistan’s energy system is high, almost 30% of TES and 35% of the TFC.
*Includes non-energy use.
Note: Oil has never been used in electricity generation.
Source: IEA (2022a), World Energy Statistics and Balances (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics.
Supply and demand

The first oil processing facility was commissioned in 2013 with the design capacity of 100 kt
per year. However, the facility has operated at only around 25% of its capacity since then.
A construction of a larger refinery with 1 200 kt/year design capacity started in 2014 in the
Dangara Free Economic Zone was fully equipped and completed in 2018. Taking the
refinery into operation is expected to commence once satisfactory raw material supply
agreements are reached. Negotiations are reported to be held with companies from Iran,
Kazakhstan and Russia. The refinery has been built by Tajik-Chinese joint venture TK-Oil
and is expected to produce diesel fuel, as well as low-octane gasoline AI-80, AI-92 and
construction bitumen at the initial stage. The next stage envisages production of European
brands of gasoline – Euro-4 and Euro-5, as well as liquefied gas, diesel fuel, paraffin and
construction bitumen.
As a result, a large majority of the demand for oil products is met by imports. Oil products
represented one-third of Tajikistan’s total final consumption in 2020.
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7. OIL
Imports

Tajikistan imports oil products mainly from Russia and Kazakhstan, in 2019-2020 over
90% of the total. Almost all LPG is imported. In 2020 Tajikistan consumed 420 759 271 kg
of LPG, of which 380 143 604 kg was imported from Kazakhstan, 28 478 153 kg from
Uzbekistan and 11 957 514 kg came from domestic production. Diesel and motor gasoline
are imported mainly from Russia, with minor additional quantities from Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Most oil products arrive by road.
Figure 7.2 Tajikistan’s oil product imports by country, 2010-2020

Mt
1.2 Uzbekistan
1.0 Turkmenistan
0.8 Kazakhstan
0.6 Russia
0.4
Others/unspecified
0.2
Virtually all demand is met by imports, mainly from Russia and Kazakhstan.
Notes: Data by country available since 2015.
Consumption
LPG, motor gasoline and diesel form the bulk of product imports and consumption (85%
in 2020).
Figure 7.3 Oil consumption by sector, 2000-2020

Mt
1.2 Industry
1.0 Transport*
0.8
Unspecified**
0.6
0.4
0.2
Oil product consumption has grown rapidly, more than doubling since 2010.
* Includes bunker fuels for international aviation bunkers.
** Includes majority for the transport consumption until 2011.
Tajikistan has one of the world’s highest levels of LPG consumption in the transport sector
(44%), though nearly all vehicles running on LPG are also able to use motor gasoline. High
utilisation is explained by the price difference to the usual road fuels (see Figure 7.5).
79
7. OIL
Given that electricity production is mostly based on hydro, no oil is used in the generation.
Lack of detailed demand data on oil products prevents a detailed sectoral analysis.
Figure 7.4 Oil consumption by product, 2000-2020

Mt
1.2
Jet fuel and kerosene
1.0
Residual fuels
0.8
Other products*
0.6
Motor gasoline
0.4 Diesel/gasoil
0.2 LPG
Oil product consumption mostly consists of transport fuels.

* Includes lubricants, bitumen, petroleum coke and unspecified oil products. LPG likely included in this category until
2011.
Note: Total consumption includes international aviation bunkers, and excludes international marine bunkers.
Oil market structure

Prices and taxes
Due to the fact that oil products are mainly imported, the government does not control oil
product prices, while the Anti-monopoly Agency is responsible for regulating retail sales in
order to prevent high prices.
Figure 7.5 Transport fuel prices in selected countries, 2020

2015 USD/litre
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Tajikistan (2019)
Tajikistan (2019) World
World China (Xinjiang) Pakistan Afghanistan Kazakhstan Russia Kyrgyzstan Iran (2019)
(2019)
Motor gasoline (regular) Automotive diesel IEA. All rights reserved
Prices for gasoline and automotive diesel in Tajikistan are the highest in the region.
Notes: Constant 2015 USD. When recent data were not available, the year for the latest data was indicated in the
chart. Price data not available for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Source: IEA (2022b), World Energy Prices (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-
products?filter=prices.
Because almost 100% of oil products are imported, the government does not provide any
subsidies. Russia does not impose an export tax for Tajikistan provided that the total
volume is less than 830 000 tonnes.
80
7. OIL
Figure 7.6 Main transport fuel prices in Tajikistan, 2010-2019

2015 USD/litre
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Automotive diesel Regular gasoline LPG IEA. All rights reserved
LPG is significantly less expensive than gasoline and diesel.

Source: IEA (2022b), World Energy Prices (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-
products?filter=prices.
Assessment
The Tajikistan oil sector is quite small, with only a few companies owning licences for
upstream activities. Although there are two refineries, with only one in operation currently,
the economic rationale for domestic refining remains unclear, as these refineries are
unable to run at full capacity throughout the year. Higher fuel-quality specifications have
also made it difficult for these refineries to operate, as it is unlikely that they have invested
in the complex secondary units needed to meet these new standards.
There are a range private companies operating as both wholesalers and retailers in
Tajikistan’s downstream market, and the presence of multiple companies in both the
wholesale and retail fields suggest that the licensing regime does promote competition.
Tajikistan relies almost fully on imports to satisfy its fuel needs, mainly with Russian and
Kazakhstani refineries supplying the vast majority of total imports. While Tajikistan has
officially transitioned to Euro 5-specification motor fuels, some Euro-3 and -4 fuel is still
being imported.
Tajikistan does not appear to hold emergency oil stocks or related reporting mechanisms
at present. As a net oil importer, it is therefore highly exposed to supply disruptions and
would greatly benefit from building stocks to counter potential supply disruptions. Having
a monitoring system in place would help the country take the right action rapidly in case of
supply disruptions and thus mitigate the shocks to the economy.
The various emergency response systems of IEA member countries reflect differences in
oil market structure, geography and national emergency response policy. Establishing oil
stockpiles is undeniably time-consuming and requires domestic market changes and
significant financial resources, especially if it is necessary to build up domestic storage
capacity and acquire large volumes of crude oil or petroleum products. However, holding
emergency oil stocks is very economically beneficial because it is a crucial tool for
mitigating the economic damage caused by an oil supply disruption. Preventing the
harmful price spikes associated with disruptions to oil supplies avoids the payment of
substantial import costs and GDP losses (IEA, 2018).
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7. OIL
There are different ways to set up and finance a stockholding system, depending on
whether compulsory stocks are held as government/agency stocks or under an obligation
on industry. Financing must cover two principal sets of costs: expenses involved in setting
up emergency stocks, and those of administering and maintaining the stocks.
Some options for regional co-operation, such as cross-border stockholding arrangements

and joint stockpiling models, are flexible and pragmatic near-term alternatives.
In addition to establishing emergency oil stockholding, Tajikistan would also need to put
emergency response procedures in place in case of a supply disruption. To test and
strengthen these procedures, Tajikistan would need to run an emergency response
exercise with regular intervals, advisably every two years, as industry standard.
Improving the quality and timeliness of monthly oil data is also a critical aspect of oil supply
security and is essential for building up and monitoring the maintenance of emergency oil
stocks. Tajikistan should therefore ensure that adequate attention and resources are given
to monthly oil data collection. More complete annual oil data, including stock changes, are
also needed to construct a complete description of the country’s energy situation, so
sharing timely data on oil product imports and stock levels with TajStat (responsible for the
national energy balance) is important.
Recommendations
 Set up and/or strengthen monitoring processes to ensure that oil product imports meet
the legal specifications and should increase transparency on the fuel specifications of
imports.
 Develop an approach for holding emergency stocks and organise development of
necessary legal and regulatory framework, including requirements for regular
emergency response exercises to test system responsiveness in case of a supply
disruption.
 Ensure that any data collected are passed on to TajStat in a timely fashion.
82
7. OIL
References

Asia-Plus (2022a), Сколько нефтепродуктов закупил Таджикистан в 2021 году и у кого,
16 February 2022, https://asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/economic/20220216/skolko-
nefteproduktov-zakupil-tadzhikistan-v-20221-godu-i-u-kogo
Asia-Plus (2022b), «Барки точик» назвала семерку крупных должников за
электроэнергию, 15 February 2022,
https://asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/economic/20220215/barki-tochik-nazval-semerku-
krupnih-dolzhnikov-za-elektroenergiyu
Asia-Plus (2022c), Долги «Барки точик» к началу 2022 года достигли почти 2,9
миллиардов долларов, 14 February 2022,
https://asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/economic/20220214/dolgi-barki-tochik-k-nachalu-
2022-godu-dostigli-pochti-29-milliardov-dollarov
Asia-Plus (2020), The work of a large oil refinery in Tajikistan is postponed due to lack of
raw materials, 18 September 2020,
https://www.asiaplustj.info/en/news/tajikistan/economic/20200918/the-work-of-a-large-oil-
refinery-in-tajikistan-is-postponed-due-to-lack-of-raw-materials
IEA (International Energy Agency) (2022a), World Energy Statistics and Balances
(database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics. (accessed 10 June 2022)
IEA (2022b), World Energy Prices (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-
products?filter=prices. (accessed April 2022)
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Republic of Tajikistan, http://mewr.gov.tj/ru/
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (2013), Tajik president launches new oil refinery,
20 July 2013, https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan-president-oil-refinery/25051882.html
83
8. Energy, environment and climate change
Key data
Total GHG emissions without LULUCF* (2014): 9.1 MtCO2-eq, -64.3% since 1990,
+12.8% since 2010
GHG emissions without LULUCF* by sector (2014): Agriculture 49.9%, energy 27.9%,
industrial processes 12.7%, waste 9.6%
Total GHG emissions with LULUCF* (2014): 7.6 MtCO2-eq, -x% since 1990, +14.7% since
2010
Energy-related CO₂ emissions (2020):
CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion: 7.3 Mt CO₂ (+215% since 2010, -34.2% since 1990)
CO₂ emissions by fuel: Coal 52.6%, oil 41.1%, natural gas 6.3%
CO₂ emissions by sector: Transport 40.2%, electricity and heat generation 28.5%, industry
18.1%, residential 12.8%, other/unspecified 7.8%
CO₂ intensity (CO₂ emissions per GDP): 0.21 kg CO₂/USD (2015 PPP) (world average
2019 0.26)
* Land use, land-use change and forestry. For non-Annex I countries of the Kyoto Protocol, recent GHG data
availability is limited. The latest national inventory covers 2004-2014.
Notes: The overall GHG data are from The First Biennial Report of the Republic of Tajikistan on Inventory of
Greenhouse Gases under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (2004-2014); energy-related CO2
emissions are from the IEA (IEA, 2022a) (1990-2020).
Overview
Tajikistan is a non-Annex I Party to the UNFCCC, and it is applying the “common but
differentiated responsibilities”, thus, contributing by far more than its initial responsibilities
assumed to the Convention. Tajikistan committed to report on its commitments on a
biennial basis through the Biennial Update Report until 2023 and the Biennial
Transparency Report from 2024. Both reports will, according to the requirements of the
UNFCCC, communicate the updated GHG inventory and the implementation of the
relevant mitigation efforts to fulfil the mitigation targets of the country. Tajikistan has ratified
both the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The updated Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC) of the Republic of Tajikistan goes in line with the GHG emissions
trajectories towards 2050 and onwards that correspond to keeping global warming in line
with the global long-term goal of the Paris Agreement.
Tajikistan has one of the lowest rates of GHG emissions in Central Asia; nonetheless, it is
extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change, which poses a huge challenge for a
85
8. ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE
landlocked mountainous territory that is dependent on natural resources while exposed to

natural disasters such as flooding and earthquakes. As climate change exacerbates
existing problems and creates new risks for national development goals, the government
is creating sustainable transformational initiatives in different economic sectors that will
address the economic and societal impacts of climate change, focusing on enhancing the
adaptive capacity of both the communities and economic sectors to build climate resilience
across Tajikistan.
Climate change has added to the existing challenges and vulnerabilities, and this has
taken a central position within the framework of the new Sustainable Development Goals
after 2015, which include improving efficiency in use of water resources, building resilience
of settlements, adopting urgent action on climate change adaptation and mitigation,
protection of terrestrial ecosystems, reversing land degradation, and prevention and
elimination of causes of natural disasters. Unequal regional development means that there
are significant differences in the quality of services available to urban and rural
populations. The rural population is more vulnerable to environmental degradation, and
there are marked differences in the level of social infrastructure development between the
regions. In addition, the relatively high demographic pressure in rural areas creates further
inequality of employment and income.
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

Unlike in many other countries, the share of energy-related GHG emissions has historically
been relatively low in Tajikistan, mainly explained by hydro-based electricity generation.
However, the emissions from fuel combustion have increased fast since 2015 when the
new coal-fired power plant was commissioned.
Tajikistan’s overall GHG emissions have increased by over 10% since 2010, reaching
9.1 Mt of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2-eq) in 2014, not including emissions related to land use
and forestry.
Excluding the early 1990s, the share of energy-related GHG emissions has been relatively
low, ranging from 42% to 28% between 2004 and 2014, in contrast to the global average
of around 75%. In the terminology of the UNFCCC this includes fuel combustion for both
energy production and use (e.g. energy consumption in industry, transport and
households), as well as fugitive methane emissions. 3 Since 2015, these emissions –
mainly CO2 from coal combustion – have risen notably, over 70% until 2020. Natural gas
imports recommenced in 2018, so fugitive emissions of methane are likely to increase as
well, although they have not been quantified recently.
3 Inaddition to energy, GHG sectors used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
include industrial processes and product use; agriculture, forestry and other land use; and waste.
86
Figure 8.1 Tajikistan’s greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990-2030

MtCO₂-eq
40 Total
35 Waste
30
Industrial processes
25
Agriculture
20
Energy*
15
10 LULUCF
5
-5
1990 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2020** 2030*** IEA. All rights reserved.
The share of energy-related emissions has grown since the coal-fired power plant was
commissioned in 2015.
* Includes fuel combustion (for power and heat generation, and for industry, transport, residential and commercial
energy consumption), fugitive emissions from fuels and energy industry own consumption.
** CO2 emissions from fuel combustion estimated by the IEA; other emissions assumed equal to 2014.
*** Tajikistan’s unconditional target for 2030 is not to exceed 60-70% of the 1990 GHG emissions (striped area), the
conditional target being 50-60%.
Note: Data for the latest years may not be available for non-Annex I parties to the Kyoto Protocol.
Sources: Agency for Hydrometeorology under the Committee on Environmental Protection under the Government of
the Republic of Tajikistan (2018), The First Biennial Report on Inventory of Greenhouse Gases under the UNFCCC;
Government of Tajikistan (2021), The Updated NDC of the Republic of Tajikistan.
In 2020, Tajikistan’s CO2 emissions from fuel combustion were 7.3 Mt CO2. This was over
30% lower than in 1990. However, uncertainty around the early 1990s energy consumption
data does not allow for detailed analysis of the emissions pattern changes. Historically
most electricity – over 99% – has been generated with hydropower that has no direct CO2
emissions, but since 2015 thermal power generation has increased, notably contributing
to the growth of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion.
Figure 8.2 Tajikistan’s CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by sector, 1990-2020
Mt CO₂
12 8 Electricity and heat
7 generation
10
6 Residential
8
5
Industry*
6 4
3 Transport
4
2
2 Unspecified**
1
1990 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 IEA. All rights reserved.
CO2 emissions have increased almost four times since 2000.

* Includes CO2 emissions from combustion in construction and manufacturing industries.
** Emissions are estimated from the available energy consumption data where details mainly for transport, residential
and industry are not available for all the years.

Source: IEA (2022), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics.
87
Total CO2 emissions increased over threefold (+233%) between 2000 and 2020, while the
economy measured per capita less than tripled (+170%). Globally the opposite is
observed, where the economic growth outpaces that of the emissions, i.e. decoupling. An
explaining factor could be that the increased emissions are mainly the result of the
increased share of fossil fuels used in power generation since 2015. The additional
electricity generated still mainly dampens the seasonal electricity deficits; therefore, the
added net value to the economy is limited.
Figure 8.3 Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers in Tajikistan, 2000-2020
Index (2000 = 100)
350 CO₂ emissions
300
GDP/capita (PPP)
250
200 CO₂/TES
150 Population
100
TES/GDP
50
Increase in CO2 emissions outpaced the economic growth in 2015.

Note: GDP in constant 2015 USD and PPP.
Tajikistan’s CO2 intensity of 0.21 kg CO2 per USD of economic output (kg CO2/USD) (2015
PPP) was just below the world average of 0.26 in 2019.
Figure 8.4 CO2 intensity in Tajikistan and selected countries, 2019

kg CO₂/USD
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.264 0.226
0.30
0.20
0.10
Tajikistan’s CO2 intensity is 14% below the world average.

Note: Real GDP in USD 2015 prices and PPP.
88
Figure 8.5 CO2 intensity in Tajikistan and selected countries, 2000-2019

kg CO₂/USD (2015 PPP)
0.8 ≈ Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
0.6
Non-Annex I
countries (UNFCCC)
0.4 Tajikistan
Pakistan
0.2
European Union
Tajikistan’s CO2 intensity has been on the rise since 2010, mostly due to increased coal
consumption in power generation.
Figure 8.6 CO2 intensity of power and heat generation in Tajikistan and selected
countries, 2000-2019
g CO₂/kWh
700 Non-Annex I
countries (UNFCCC)
600 Uzbekistan
500
European Union
400
Kyrgyzstan
300
200 Tajikistan
Tajikistan
100 Switzerland
While still relatively low, the CO2 intensity of Tajikistan’s energy mix has been on the rise since
2010, mostly due to increased coal consumption in power generation.
Note: g CO2 = grammes of carbon dioxide.
Institutional framework
The Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of Tajikistan (CEP) is
responsible for policies on co-ordinating climate change adaptation by the country’s
sectoral ministries and departments. The CEP also leads the National Strategy for
Adaptation to Climate Change of Tajikistan for the Period until 2030 (NSACC-2030), and
is the National Designated Authority for the Green Climate Fund.
The Agency for Hydrometeorology under the CEP is responsible for preparation of biennial
inventory of GHG (GHG Inventory) reports and prepared the First Biennial Report of the
Republic of Tajikistan on Inventory of Greenhouse Gases in 2018.
TajStat contributes to the preparation of the GHG Inventory.
89
The government produced the updated NDC for Tajikistan with experts from the ministries
and departments and the help of international financial institutions and donor agencies and
adopted it in October 2021.
Tajikistan aims to tackle the societal and economic impacts of climate change on
vulnerable groups of the population by increasing community resilience. Tajikistan’s
regional and municipal institutions are key to implement adaptive measures with
co-ordinating state bodies and institutions implementing climate change adaptation
programmes, all of which are accountable to the government.
Climate change policy

Tajikistan joined the UNFCCC in January 1998. It is also party to the Kyoto Protocol,
ratified on 29 December 2008. The Tajik government signed the Paris Agreement on
22 April 2016 and ratified it on 20 March 2017.
Following the signature of the Paris Agreement and submission of Tajikistan’s first NDC,
the government adopted a range of strategic documents, programmes and concepts that
directly or indirectly address climate change mitigation and adaptive measures.
The Strategy 2030 was launched in 2016 as a roadmap for economic development with
measures to reduce the impact of climate change including: use of non-traditional
(renewable) energy sources, minimising the impact of transportation on the environment
and human health, encouraging green employment, and expanding environmental
entrepreneurship and the environmental services market with state support.
The NSACC-2030 was launched in 2019 as a strategic document for achieving the goals
of the Paris Agreement and a roadmap for identifying the risks, threats and adaptation
measures for climate change. In it, the government identifies four key sectors as being
climate-sensitive and priorities for development: energy, water, transport and agriculture.
The NSACC-2030 lays out adaptation measures and actions for key sectors of the
economy, and recommends mechanisms and sources of financing.
The NSACC-2030 was approved by governmental Order 482/2019 as a risk assessment

of the sudden and prolonged negative effects of climate change, focusing on agriculture
and land use, and recommends sectoral adaptation actions.
The Medium-Term Development Programme of Tajikistan for 2016-2020 (MDP

2016-2020) sets out the key measures for reducing climate change impact by improving
access to natural resources and their rational management and use, creating legal
mechanisms for protection, providing financial support and meeting the needs for new
technologies, developing a green economy and preventing climate change risk,
developing sources of renewable energy, modernising transport at all levels, constructing
six hydropower plants (700 kWh), and reconstructing 700 km of highways.
The Medium-Term Development Programme of Tajikistan for 2021-2025 (MDP

2021-2025) was approved in 2021 by governmental decree No. 168 with sections focused
on environmental protection, climate change and natural disasters. The adoption of
NSACC-2030 strengthens the mechanisms for deploying capacity-building processes on

climate change adaptation for employees of authorised bodies and civil servants,
90
recommends the development of gender-sensitive indicators for climate change, and

formulates sectoral measures for climate change adaptation.
Climate change adaptation measures detailed in the submission of the first NDC were also
aimed at sectoral programmes, strategies and plans, including:
 The Programme for Reforming the Water Sector of Tajikistan for 2016-2025 contains
adaptation measures through the development of a long-term strategy for the use and
protection of water resources in five river basins, development of seasonal and annual
plans for the distribution and management of water resources in river basins,
restoration of irrigation infrastructure and improvement of conditions for its
maintenance and operation, and introduction of new water-saving technologies.
 The National Strategy of Tajikistan on Disaster Risk Reduction for 2019-2030 contains
adaptation measures through ensuring access of all stakeholders to disaster risk
information, integrating disaster risk management into development processes, and
improving mechanisms for disaster preparedness and response.
 The Strategy for the Development of Industry in Tajikistan for the Period up to 2030
contains mitigation and adaptation measures through the introduction of new
technologies for reducing emissions of hazardous substances into the atmosphere,
saving raw materials and energy resources.
 The State Target Programme for the Development of the Transport Complex of
Tajikistan for the Period up to 2025 aims at extending the transport infrastructure life
cycle to increase its resilience to climate change, with the goal of bringing transport
infrastructure in line with international environmental standards.
Mitigation
Tajikistan communicated its INDC under the Paris Agreement in 2015, which became the
country’s National Development Contribution (NDC) upon ratification of the Paris
Agreement in 2017. In just a few years, Tajikistan has taken ambitious steps to sustainable
change through development of the national regulatory framework and implementation of
a range of projects and interventions.
Unlike the first NDC, the updated NDC includes the changes for unconditional reduction
in GHG emissions for 2030 and a goal for conditional reduction of GHG, as well as
strengthening the focus on adaptation. The updated NDC is also improved significantly by
including a broader scope of participants from line ministries, academia, international
organisations, donors, non-government organisations, business representatives and the
media, and it benefits from their continued support during the implementation process.
Despite its economic circumstances and geography, Tajikistan has opted for ambitious
targets and measures in order to achieve its transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient
development in a sustainable manner. Tajikistan is keen to achieve progress towards
implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the national level by
integrating the aims of the 2030 Agenda into the updated NDC.
The NDC’s revision process covers the following key sectors identified as national
priorities: agriculture, energy, forestry and biodiversity, industry and construction, and
transport and infrastructure.
91
The latest updates on NDCs detail these as mitigation contributions to be implemented by

the country and conditional contributions to rely on appropriate international financial and
technical support, technology transfer, and capacity building. This combined package of
support will accelerate Tajikistan’s mitigation efforts and adaptation practice.
The unconditional NDC for reducing GHG emissions is not to exceed 60-70% of GHG
emissions in Tajikistan from the reference year of 1990 by 2030.
The conditional NDC, dependent on significant international funding and technology

transfer, is not to exceed 50-60% GHG emissions in Tajikistan from the reference year of
1990 by 2030.
The adaptation of these measures reflects a broader understanding of the country's high
vulnerability to climate change, setting out five strategic sectors and 27 lines of action.
The updated NDC contains the scope and criteria used to realise Tajikistan’s ambition
through the adaptation and mitigation efforts of its initial NDCs. Furthermore, the updated
NDCs also include information on the initial elements for establishing an Enhanced
Transparency Framework as outlined by Article 13 of the Paris Agreement. The principal
objective is to support sustainable and efficient development taking into consideration
climate change, environmental and socio-economic challenges.
Adaptation
Finding solutions for the current and future societal and economic impact of climate change
in Tajikistan lies in promoting effective adaptive measures and working against
maladaptation across the economy’s priority sectors, while strategic documents,
programmes and approaches have been adopted to implement adaptive measures to
mitigate climate change.
The Strategy 2030 lays out the roadmap for the country’s future economic development
and will contribute to reducing climate change through adaptive measures that include
increasing renewable energy sources, minimising transport sector impact on the
environment and developing green employment.
The NSACC-2030 was launched in 2019 as a consolidated strategic document for climate
change adaptation. National consultation for the strategy identified adaptation priority
sectors centred on vulnerability and development: energy, water resources, transport and
agriculture; and cross-cutting areas: health, education, gender, youth, migration,
environment and emergencies.
The NSACC-2030 takes the goals of the Strategy 2030 along with the provisions of other
key strategic plans – the MDP 2021-2025 and the preliminary results of the Fourth National
Communication of Tajikistan under the UNFCCC (2021), other sectoral programmes and
plans, research by development partners, and the results of specialist consultations from
key ministries and departments to define long-term adaptation measures for the key
sectors of the economy of energy, water resources, agriculture and forestry, transport and
infrastructure, industry, and construction, and for the cross-sectoral sectors of education,
health, migration, environmental protection and gender. Based on extensive data, the
following adaptation measures have been formulated for the economy’s major sectors.
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Key adaptation measures in the energy sector include:

 Development of short-term impact models and effective adaptation options for extreme
weather conditions such as droughts.
 Raising the level of sector specialists’ qualifications in methods of assessing climate
risk and vulnerability.
 Taking measures to ensure infrastructure security.
 Revision of maintenance procedures and measures to improve safety of transmission
and distribution networks from climate events.
 Development of networks of small HPPs and widespread development of other RES
in the remote mountainous and rural regions.
 Strengthening hydropower potential and increasing the reliability factor taking into
account the effects of climate change (increase in maximum floods or decrease in run-
off).
Adaptation measures for the use of water resources, addressing future water scarcity,
include:
 Increasing the efficiency of water use, recycling, processing and demand

management.
 Strengthening the capacity of water users’ associations.
 Stricter regulation of wastewater treatment and discharge, providing backup systems
for water resource storage management.
 Improvement of groundwater management.
 Widespread application of the principles of integrated water resources management.
 Rehabilitation of irrigation systems and drainages to improve reclamation of saline
lands and wetlands.
 Use of effective irrigation methods (drip irrigation).
 Improvement of the water flow forecasting system.
 Development of national measures for adaptation and resilience to climate change in
the water sector.
In the transport sector, adaptation measures include bringing construction codes in line
with international standards, improving transport infrastructure and introducing regulations
for fuel-efficient vehicles. In the industry, transport and cross-sectoral sectors, adaptation
measures here apply the concepts of environmental protection to encourage a green
economy and to align sustainable development with the rest of the economy’s sectors,
creation of early-warning systems for the adoption of protective measures, prevention of
damage and loss, and arranging community and media campaigns on climate change and
disaster risk management.
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Energy and environment

Energy production and transmission is vulnerable to climate change and related extreme
weather events. The interconnectedness of the country’s energy and water systems
means that variations in rainfall, increased risk of drought, reduced snow cover and varying
snowmelt times can adversely affect energy production and delivery.
Climate change means that other sectors, agriculture in particular, would adversely be
affected by climate-related droughts, declining rain-fed agriculture, declining yields and
production, and crop failures and loss of livestock. Changes in precipitation and
temperature are likely to reduce forest productivity and to increase natural hazard risks
such as forest fire. These trends are also contributing to changes in the regional
distribution of forests, narrowing production zones for alpine species, and increasing
incidence of pest and disease. The transport sector can be affected by climate change
because of inefficient infrastructure, vulnerable to increased rainfall, and frequent flooding
can accelerate degradation of road infrastructure.
Using risk indicators, climate change impacts and existing adaptive potential, the most
vulnerable regions to climate change have been identified as the central mountainous
regions, followed by the more populated southern mountains and lowland regions (Khatlon
Region) and by the northern slopes of Zeravhsan and Turkestan (Sughd Region).
Air quality
According to World Health Organization guidelines, air quality in Tajikistan is considered
unsafe. The World Health Organization (WHO) Ambient (outdoor) air quality database, by
country and city update 2022, with the latest data from Tajikistan from 2019, shows that
the country’s annual mean concentration of PM2.5 (fine particles) is 71.52 microgrammes
per cubic metre (µg/m3), exceeding the recommended maximum of 10 µg/m3 (WHO,
2022).
Increasing levels of air pollution, particularly in the cities, contribute to increased incidence
of acute and chronic respiratory illness and allergies and increased deaths and illnesses
from hazardous chemicals and pollution. Mortality attributed to household and ambient air
pollution in Tajikistan was 81.1 per 100 000 in 2019.
Given that city-specific air quality data are not currently available, the main contributors to
poor air quality in Tajikistan include vehicle emissions, aluminium processing plants and
power generation.
Assessment
Tajikistan's high dependence on climate-sensitive sectors of the economy is a factor that
increases the country’s vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events.
Preliminary reports indicate that average annual temperature in Tajikistan is set to increase
between 0.2°C to 0.4°C by 2030, and average annual rainfall will decrease by 5% by 2050.
94
Through consultations with key ministries and government departments, the NSACC-

2030 has identified the energy, water resources, agriculture and transport sectors as being
most susceptible to climate change.
Principal risks and impacts of climate change on these sectors were ranked using the
benchmarks found in the Strategy 2030, NSACC-2030, the MDP 2016-2020, the draft
MDP 2021-2025, sectoral strategies and programmes, and consultations with academia,
civil society, relevant ministries and departments, and development partners.
The ultimate long-term goal for Tajikistan’s development is the improvement of living
standards through ensuring sustainable economic development. In order for this to
succeed, the Strategy 2030 details a number of strategic development goals to be
implemented over the following 15 years: ensuring energy security and efficient use of
electricity; breaking the communication deadlock and transforming the country into a
transit country; ensuring food security and access of the population to quality food;
expansion of productive employment.
To improve the situation in the transport sector, the State Target Programme for the
Development of the Transport Complex of the Republic of Tajikistan up to 2025 was
adopted. According to this programme, the total gross emissions of pollutants by vehicles
into the atmosphere is 43.5% of the total emissions in the country. In order to reduce the
impact of negative factors on the environment caused by increasing motorisation and the
contribution of other modes of transport, the programme provides for a range of measures
aimed at their substantial reduction, in particular: the development of a network of
highways and improving the quality of their maintenance; transfer of a proportion of
vehicles to environment-friendly types of motor fuel, primarily natural gas; the use of
equipment that reduces the harmful effects of fuels on the atmosphere; improvement of
road surfaces through the use of polymers, technical regulations and arrangement of
highways; removal of transit highways and roads with freight traffic from residential areas;
bringing transport infrastructure to international standards on environmental parameters;
application of new types of mixtures and compounds in air conditioners and refrigerated
wagons in place of freon; re-equipping the aircraft fleet with new-generation aircraft and
upgrading the air traffic management system; installing soundproof barriers and grassed
and planted areas; and creation of safety barriers where needed on roadsides.
Recommendations
 Encourage closer co-operation between the GHG Inventory compiler and TajStat to
further improve energy-related GHG reporting and analysis and the underlying energy
statistics.
 Enhance natural resources management, efficiency and resilience and stimulate
energy generation from solar and wind (renewable) sources.
 Increase energy efficiency, and security of power supply and water supply, and
achieve integrated water resources management.
 Support the creation of a transparent and fair electricity market, which will be attractive
for the deployment of renewable energy projects through private-sector participation,
and able to cope with the requirements of an efficient regional power market.
95
 Signal the creation of a strong water-energy-food nexus in Tajikistan through the

establishment of efficient interaction and improved co-ordination among stakeholders
in the energy and water sectors.
 Support activities to address the reduction of GHG emissions and improve climate
change mitigation (due to more efficient use of energy), promote investments in energy
efficiency and renewable energy in housing and industry, sensitise in favour of energy
efficiency and renewable energy measures, and ensure fair and equal access for
vulnerable groups and enhanced gender equality.
 Create the conditions for attracting investments in energy efficiency and renewable
energy.
 Convert the economy into a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy and
build inclusive and equitable partnerships to reduce (energy) poverty and support
sustainable development.
 Enable increased financing and investment for just transitions, phase out finance for
fossil fuels, promote gender equality and strengthen dialogue with civil society
organisations.
 Embrace a green, digital and inclusive economy, business and other services,
including digital and green entrepreneurship.
 Create a business environment conducive to the development of micro, small and
medium-sized enterprises and innovation, in selected sectors, with a particular focus
on green economy and digitalisation.
96
References

Agency for Standardisation, Metrology, Certification and Trade Inspection, Republic of
Tajikistan, http://www.standard.tj
Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan (TajStat),
http://www.stat.tj/ru
Committee on Construction and Architecture, Republic of Tajikistan, http://tajsohtmon.tj
Committee on Environmental Protection, Republic of Tajikistan, www.hifzitabiat.tj
IAMAT, Tajikistan air pollution, https://www.iamat.org/country/tajikistan/risk/air-pollution#
IEA (International Energy Agency) (2021), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Data
Explorer, IEA, Paris, https://www.iea.org/articles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-
data-explorer
IQAir, Air quality near Dushanbe, Tajikistan (database),
https://www.iqair.com/tajikistan/dushanbe
Mustaeva, N. et al. (2015), Tajikistan: Country situation assessment, CAREC (Regional
Environmental Centre for Central Asia),
https://carececo.org/upload/02/eng_CSA_Tajikistan.pdf
National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the Period up to 2030
(2016), https://nafaka.tj/images/zakoni/new/strategiya_2030_en.pdf
NDC Registry, Tajikistan, United Nations Climate Change,
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Tajikistan%20First/NDC_TA
JIKISTAN_ENG.pdf
World Health Organization Air Quality Database 2022,
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/who-air-quality-database-2022
World Health Organization (2021), WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines: Particulate Matter
(PM 2.5 and PM 10 ), Ozone, Nitrogen Dioxide, Sulfur Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide,
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/345329/9789240034228-eng.pdf
World Health Organization (2020), Health-related SDG targets in Tajikistan: implementation
of policies and measures for health and well-being, Progress Report 2020,
https://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/459946/Health-related-SDG-targets-
in-Tajikistan-eng.pdf
97
9. Energy efficiency
Key data
(2020)
TFC: 3.1 Mtoe (electricity 42.8%, oil 34.4%, coal 16.2%, district heat 3.8%, natural gas 2.9%),
+57.9% since 2010
Consumption by sector: transport 33.1%, residential 30.4%, industry 20.2%, transport
28.9%, services 8.8%, agriculture 7.3%
TFC per capita: 0.32 toe (world average 2019: 1.30 toe)
Energy intensity (TFC/GDP): 89 toe/USD million PPP (world average 2019: 78 toe/USD
million PPP)
Energy consumption
Tajikistan’s TFC amounted to 3.1 Mtoe in 2020, having grown rapidly over the last decade
(+58% since 2010). The comparable data suggest 4 residential consumption has grown
most rapidly in recent years, more than doubling since 2015, and was the largest energy-
consuming sector in 2020 (33% of TFC). Road transport consumption – accounting for
30% of the TFC – has also doubled in the period for which data are available (+108%
between 2012 and 2019). Industry consumption accounted for 20% in 2020, decreasing
by almost 25% y-o-y. The remainder is consumed in services (9%) and agriculture (7%).
Electricity accounted for over 40% of TFC in 2020, followed by oil (34%) and coal (16%).
Natural gas and district heat consumption is marginal with both having shares between 3-
4% of the TFC.
The official statistics do not systematically report bioenergy (mainly fuelwood)

consumption. However, analysis based on the first energy consumption survey conducted
in 2016 by TajStat indicates fuelwood is in fact the primary energy source in the residential
sector by a large margin, even compared with electricity (TajStat, 2018). Additional surveys
are necessary to properly quantify the baseline consumption. The dominance of electricity
across the sectors is explained by hydro being the only domestic energy source besides
fuelwood.
4Tajikistan began aligning national data with international methodology and standards in 2015.
Historical trends may not be fully compatible with recent data.
99
9. ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Figure 9.1 Total final consumption by sector, 2000-2020

Mtoe
3.0 Services
Agriculture
2.5
Industry*
2.0 Residential
1.5 Unspecified**
Transport
1.0
0.5

** The relatively high share of unspecified energy consumption before 2015 hinders accurate sectoral analysis. Using
expert estimates, unallocated LPG consumption was reallocated to transport sector for 2012-2020.
Source: IEA (2022), World Energy Statistics and Balances (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics
Figure 9.2 Total final consumption by source and sector, 2020
Industry* 38% 6% 41% 14%

Electricity
Transport 100%
Oil
Residential 63% 25% 12%
Coal
Services/other** 98% 2%
Natural gas
District heat
Total
Total 43% 34% 16% 3% 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% IEA. All rights reserved.

** Includes commercial and public services, agriculture, forestry and unspecified consumption.
Note: For ease of readability, shares of less than 1% are not shown. Numbers may not add up to 100%.
Tajikistan’s energy intensity has decreased notably in recent decades (-59% in

2000-2020). This is due to GDP growing over fourfold during the period, whereas energy
consumption (measured by TFC) less than doubled.
In 2020, Tajikistan’s energy intensity per unit of GDP at PPP was 89 tonnes of oil
equivalent (toe) per million USD, above the world average of 78 toe per million USD (in
2019). Measured as TFC per capita, Tajikistan’s energy intensity was 0.32 toe in 2020,
75% below the world (2019) average of 1.30 toe.
100
Figure 9.3 Drivers for energy consumption and energy intensity, 2000-2020

Index (2000 = 100)
450 GDP*
400
TFC
350
300
Population
250
200 TFC / capita
150
100 TFC / GDP*
50
The link between economic growth and energy consumption is not very strong in Tajikistan.
* Expressed in constant 2015 USD billion and PPP.
Trends by sector
Since 2015, demand has grown across the sectors, but has been fastest in the residential
sector. As result, transport and residential consumption are roughly responsible for equal
shares, around 30% in the final consumption. Industry consumption dropped notably in
2020, the share being 20% of TFC. The rest (16%) of TFC is accounted for by services
and agriculture. Sectoral analysis is limited because comparable statistics are available
only since 2015.
Industry
The industrial sector consumed 0.62 Mtoe in 2020, equivalent to 20% of TFC. While
detailed data are available only for recent years, it can be concluded that coal has become
an increasingly important energy source, having the largest share (41%) of the sectoral
consumption in 2020. While still covering 38% of the energy needs, the absolute
consumption of electricity by industries has decreased. Oil consumption has allegedly
grown, but its consumption is historically likely underestimated. Natural gas consumption
has increased from a nearly non-existent level since 2017/2018 when Tajikistan’s import
infrastructure was recommissioned.
Non-ferrous metals (mainly aluminium/TALCO) and non-metallic minerals dominate
manufacturing energy demand. Aluminium smelting mainly requires electricity whereas
non-metallic mineral industries solely utilise coal.
101
Figure 9.4 Total final consumption in the industrial sector by source, 2010-2020
Mtoe
0.8 Coal*
Oil
0.6
Natural gas**
0.4
Electricity
0.2
* Import connections of natural gas were re-established in 2018

** Details on coal consumption in industry available since 2016.
Note: Includes non-energy consumption.
Figure 9.5 Share of consumption in manufacturing industries by activity, 2020

3% 3%
8% Non-ferrous metals
Non-metallic minerals
45%
Chemical and petrochemical
Textile and leather

41%
Other*
*Includes food and tobacco; paper, pulp and printing; iron and steel; machinery, wood and wood products; and
unspecified industrial consumption.
Note: Manufacturing excludes mining, quarrying and construction. It also excludes non-energy uses.
Transport
In 2020, the transport sector consumed 1.02 Mtoe (33% of TFC). While limited data are
available for the sector, consumption seems to have more than doubled between 2012
and 2020. Similarly, only limited information is available on the vehicle stock, but the
consumption of LPG indicates Tajikistan has globally the highest share of LPG
consumption in road transport, almost 50%. Imports of LPG grew rapidly in the early
2010s. The remaining sectoral consumption consists of diesel (30%) and motor gasoline
(25%). Electricity consumption is negligible.
102
Figure 9.6 Total final consumption in transport sector by fuel, 2012-2020

Mtoe
1.0 Others*
Diesel/gasoil
0.8
Motor gasoline
0.6
LPG
0.4
0.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 IEA. All rights reserved.
* Includes natural gas and electricity; not visible at this scale.

Notes: Comparable data available since 2012. Transport sector demand excludes international aviation and navigation.
Residential
The residential subsector consumed 0.93 Mtoe in 2020, accounting for 30% of TFC in the
country. Since comparable data for residential sector are available (i.e. since 2016), the
sectoral energy consumption has grown by 43%. It consists mainly of heating (both space
and water) which fluctuates annually with outdoor temperatures.
Figure 9.7 Total final consumption in residential sector by source, 2010-2020
Mtoe
1.0 Coal
0.8 District heat
0.6 Electricity
0.4
0.2
Note: Data included in the official energy balance differ from the survey results: bioenergy and oil product consumption
is not reported, whereas district heat is included. TajStat endeavours to repeat the survey in the future to increase the
level of disaggregation and to include the missing information in the national energy balance.
The survey conducted by TajStat in 2016 was Tajikistan’s first effort to assess energy
consumption in households. While not including estimates for energy consumption by end
use (e.g. water or space heating), the survey for the first time quantified the weights of
different energy sources. The results are shown in Table 9.1.
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Table 9.1 Resource consumption in Tajik households by type, 2016

Energy source Total Urban Rural Fuel share Share of Share of
(TJ) (TJ) (TJ) in total (%) urban (%) rural (%)
Fuelwood 42 421 8 263 34 158 46.4 19.5 80.5
Electricity 17 445 10 101 7 344 19.1 57.9 42.1
Coal 8 155 1 964 6 191 8.9 24.1 75.9
Cattle manure 7 075 1 024 6 051 7.7 14.5 85.5
Mazut 5 413 5 413 - 5.9 100.0 -
LPG 4 771 1 873 2 899 5.2 39.2 60.8
Petrol and diesel 3 478 1 130 2 348 3.8 32.5 67.5
Cotton husks 2 497 184 2 313 2.7 7.4 92.6
Corn leaves 217 35 182 0.2 16.1 83.9
Wood pellets 21 5 16 0.0 25.0 75.0
Bushes 11 7 4 0.0 62.5 37.5
Kerosene 8 2 7 0.0 20.0 80.0
Total 91 511 30 000 61 511 100.0
Note: TJ = terajoule.
Sources: Adapted from TajStat (2018); data converted from reporting units to common unit using default conversion
factors form International Recommendations for Energy Statistics (UNSD, 2018).
Services/agriculture
The remaining 16% of TFC consists mainly of services, agriculture and unspecified energy
consumption. While the ability to conduct further sectoral analysis is limited given the lack
of data, it seems energy consumption in agriculture is on a decreasing trend whereas
consumption in services is increasing. This is plausible given the general tendency of the
global structural shift away from the primary sector towards a more service-oriented
economy.
Policies and measures

While efforts to develop policies and measures on energy efficiency date back to at least
2002, when the first Law on Energy Savings was adopted, Tajikistan is still at an early
stage of developing a comprehensive set of policies and measures to improve demand-
side energy efficiency across key sectors, e.g. buildings, industry and transport.
A basic legislative framework for energy efficiency is in place, as discussed in the next
section. However, important pillars such as implementing measures that ensure polices
are adopted and enforced are missing or pending, and there is generally a lack of reliable
data to assess the success of policies. Energy efficiency improvements in Tajikistan are
also focused heavily on the supply side, notably power system investments to reduce
significant losses in ageing transmission and distribution infrastructures.
Tajikistan’s relatively nascent demand-side energy efficiency framework and prioritisation

of supply-side efficiency are inevitably linked to the country’s level of economic
development, access to energy and population distribution. Nearly 50% of Tajik families
live below the poverty line, and nearly three-quarters of the country’s population reside in
rural areas, in many cases with limited access to grid-supplied electricity and gas, whereby
alternative fuels such as kerosene, gasoline, firewood, coal and manure are used for
cooking and heating (ADB, 2022).
104
In this context, the use of subsidies to reduce the cost of energy, and in particular

electricity, have been used to alleviate poverty notably for households in urban areas with
access to grid-supplied electricity. Despite reform efforts dating to at least 2012, tariffs for
electricity do not cover the cost of providing energy services in Tajikistan, leading to an
underinvestment in energy infrastructure that has increased transmission and distribution
losses as well as power outages (ADB, 2022; IEA, 2021). In addition, subsidised tariffs
create a disincentive for households to invest in more efficient equipment, e.g. appliances
and lighting, while lessening the urgency to design and implement energy efficiency
policies and measures that reduce end-use energy demand.
Legislative framework
According to official statements, energy efficiency remains a central theme in Tajikistan's
energy policy, as reflected in the Strategy 2030, for example, which was adopted in 2016
and covers the period until 2030 (though again with a focus on supply-side energy savings
potentials). An overarching framework, the Sustainable Energy for All Tajikistan
2013-2030, is also in place, and contains an objective to improve energy efficiency across
all sectors and end uses by 20% by 2030, compared with 2013 levels. However, little
information is available on progress towards this target.
The main legislative pillar for energy efficiency in Tajikistan is the 2013 Law on Energy
Savings. While relatively general, the law sets out the legal and institutional framework for
energy efficiency, along with basic principles, definitions, competencies and scope, and
calls for the establishment of a National Fund for Renewable Energy Sources, Energy
Saving and Energy Efficiency (Energy Charter, 2013).
In addition, it provides principles for the efficient and rational use of fuel and energy
resources considering production, technological, environmental and social conditions. The
law also aims to support and stimulate the use of efficient technologies, materials and
equipment, alongside better planning, and implementation of energy efficiency measures.
Energy efficiency standards for the power sector and appliances were also adopted in
2014.
Numerous important bylaws and pieces of secondary legislation needed for the
implementation of the law are still under consideration, however, including energy
performance standards for building envelopes, rules for conducting energy audits and
various standards for technical systems.
Institutional framework
The main body responsible for energy efficiency, notably the implementation of measures,
is the MEWR, which has established an inter-institutional working group for the
development of bylaws related to energy efficiency. There is no dedicated energy
efficiency agency or other agency devoted to clean energy in Tajikistan. The Ministry of
Economy has some responsibility for energy efficiency as part of the development of the
country’s wider economic strategy, including the Strategy 2030 and SDGs.
A technical committee was established in 2012 as part of Tajikstandard Agency to develop

national standards based on European and Russian standards, notably in buildings and
105
energy-using products, although standards set by this committee are mainly voluntary
unless otherwise mandated by specific technical regulations (Energy Charter, 2013). The
Committee for Construction and Architecture plays an important role in terms of developing
building codes, with support from the Agency for Standardization, Metrology, Certification
and Trade Inspection.
TajStat is responsible for energy efficiency data collection, while experts point to significant
challenges in terms of the availability of data to support policy and financial initiatives, for
example, as well as a lack of information on international trends against which to
benchmark progress.
Buildings
Regulatory provisions related to buildings are included in the overarching 2013 Law on
Energy Efficiency and Energy Savings, which mandates that both new buildings and
existing buildings that have undergone a major retrofit must comply with energy efficiency
requirements and be equipped with metering technology, with energy passports to be
issued as evidence. The law also stipulates that energy efficiency requirements for
buildings need to be reviewed every five years. Public authorities are also required to
conduct energy audits of their facilities.
Several of the buildings provisions of the 2013 law have not been fully implemented due
to pending or stalled bylaws that are still under review by committees, in particular the
Agency for Standardization, Metrology, Certification and Trade Inspection. Among the
bylaws under consideration are minimum requirements for new building envelope
performance along with other technical standards, rules and procedures for conducting
energy audits; measures to promote energy efficiency in existing buildings; and a
methodology to develop energy performance certificates for buildings.
In addition to such specific and technical measures, any efforts to advance buildings
energy efficiency in Tajikistan are likely to be closely tied to the improved provision of heat.
Except for the capital, Dushanbe, where a handful of district and central heating
infrastructures are operational, none of Tajikistan’s urban centres have working central
heating systems, either in residential or in commercial or public buildings. In the absence
of access to district heating, households in urban areas primarily use hydro-generated
electricity to heat their homes, with frequent power cuts undermining thermal comfort in
cold winter months, while wood, coal and dung are used in a majority of rural homes
(Energy Charter, 2013).
To address this issue, the resolution "On the implementation of additional measures to
provide the population and various socio-economic sector of the city of Dushanbe with
heat" was adopted by the government in 2017. The resolution contains provisions for
mandatory connection to heat networks for any new construction and requires the city of
Dushanbe to make “strong efforts” to connect existing administrative and residential
buildings to central heating networks.
Energy use in buildings has increased considerably in Tajikistan since 2012. Meanwhile,
the energy efficiency potential of Tajikistan’s buildings is high, with average per square
metre energy usage (kWh/m2) in multifamily dwellings being double that of Germany, for
example (C2E2, 2015). Overall, improving the energy efficiency of the buildings sector in
Tajikistan is complicated by several challenges, including the poor state of existing
106
buildings, insufficient finance, lack of implementing measures and normative legislation,

and insufficient co-ordination between responsible authorities.
Appliances and energy-using equipment

The 2013 Law on Energy Saving and Energy Efficiency contains requirements for all
purchased and imported appliances and energy-using equipment, such as household
appliances and computers, to be labelled and sold with information on energy
performance. This requirement also extends to building materials and industrial
technologies. Despite these measures, Tajikistan does not have a comprehensive
framework for MEPS in place, with a number of specific technical standards still pending
adoption.
To date, the main area of progress in terms of improving the energy efficiency of equipment
has been in lighting, where a ban on the use of incandescent lamps has been in place
since 2009. The ban was accompanied by a support scheme that provided efficient lamps
to just under 250 000 households. No data are available on the results of this scheme in
terms of achieved savings, and enforcement mechanisms are missing to ensure
incandescent lamps are not still available to consumers.
Transport
Except for an import ban on older models, Tajikistan currently does not have energy
efficiency policies and measures in place for passenger and light-duty vehicles, such as
fuel economy standards. Based on available data, road transport emissions have doubled
since 2012 and represent nearly 45% of Tajikistan’s total GHG emissions, despite a
targeted move to increase the use of LPG as part of an overarching transport strategy as
cited below. Tajikistan’s passenger vehicle stock is increasingly outdated; automobiles
provide 85% of all transport services in the country. Roads are also generally in a poor
condition, reducing vehicle fuel efficiency.
Efforts to improve the transport sector have been in place since at least 2011 as part of
the State Target Programme for the Development of the Transport Complex of the
Republic of Tajikistan until 2025. While the programme is comprehensive and features a
range of measures including highways development and maintenance as well as
investments in buses for public transport, little evidence is available to date on the impact
of these measures in terms of reduced transport energy demand and GHG emissions.
Industry
While the industrial sector has historically been the largest energy consumer in Tajikistan,
its consumption is now at par with the buildings and transport sectors following significant
demand growth in these sectors since 2012. Nonetheless, industry still accounts for nearly
one-third of total consumption and presents significant energy efficiency potential, with
most installations built during the Soviet era. An audit of the country’s largest energy
consumer, the TALCO aluminium plant, which consumes 25-40% of Tajikistan’s total
electricity, identified energy savings potentials of more than 20% (World Bank, 2012).
In terms of legislative provisions on industrial efficiency, as noted previously, the 2013 Law
on Energy Efficiency and Energy Savings requires industrial technologies to include
technical details and labels with information on energy performance, and most industrial
facilities are required to undergo energy audits, though these are not considered
107
mandatory, and enforcement is lacking. In general, energy efficiency measures in industry

require further support through robust implementing provisions. Subsidised electricity
tariffs for industry also undermine the business case for investments in energy efficiency
improvements.
Financing and cross-cutting measures

As noted above, the 2013 law calls for the establishment of a dedicated fund for energy
savings. To date, this fund has not been established.
In the absence of an in-country funding mechanism for energy efficiency, multilateral

organisations, and IFIs such as the EBRD and the ADB, play an important role in
supporting energy efficiency improvements in Tajikistan. The ADB’s Access to Green
Finance Project that ran from 2013 to 2020, for example, supported energy efficiency
awareness-raising and microfinance loans to enable households to purchase “green
energy” solutions, such as more efficient cooking stoves and heating units. At the same
time, the EBRD has also opened a credit line for citizens who want to implement energy-
efficient technologies in their own homes (EBRD, 2017).
A market for energy services and ESCOs does not currently exist in Tajikistan.
Assessment
Energy consumption
Historical data on consumption trends across economic sectors are sporadic or missing,
and data collection according to international norms has been in place only since 2015,
complicating efforts to analyse consumption trends over time.
Based on available data, energy consumption has increased considerably over the past
decade in buildings, notably the residential subsector, and in the transport sector. Industry
sector energy demand remains strong and constitutes one-third of TFC.
Legislative and institutional framework

While basic energy efficiency legislation has been in place for nearly a decade in
Tajikistan, accompanied by overarching strategies and programmes, implementing
provisions and secondary legislation are missing. Lax enforcement of existing rules
remains an issue across all sectors.
There is no dedicated agency or institution with authority over the development and
implementation of energy efficiency measures in Tajikistan, with responsibilities spread
across ministries and subcommittees, creating challenges in terms of central
co-ordination.
Policies and measures across sectors

All sectoral energy efficiency legislation in Tajikistan is contained in the 2013 Law on
Energy Savings, with no comprehensive sector-specific laws in place.
108
Buildings sector policies are relatively comprehensive, covering building passports, MEPS

for new buildings and audit requirements. However, secondary legislation provisions are
missing and there is little evidence to suggest these, and other building efficiency
measures, are being implemented effectively.
Similarly, while MEPS and other policies designed to improve the energy efficiency of
appliances and energy-using equipment, including lighting, have been adopted in
Tajikistan, available evidence suggests that existing rules are poorly implemented and
enforced.
In the transport sector, where demand and emissions are increasing despite a shift to LNG,
efficiency policies are limited.
Concerning the industry sector, dedicated policies including energy audit requirements are
included in the 2013 Law on Energy Savings. Like trends in other sectors, however,
important implementing provisions are missing, and enforcement is lax.
Subsidised tariffs for electricity create barriers to effective policy development and
implementation, notably across the buildings and industry sectors, and undermine the
business case for investments in more energy-efficient technologies.
Financing and cross-cutting measures

While a dedicated fund for energy savings is cited in the 2013 Law on Energy Savings,
such a fund has yet to be established. Tajikistan relies on support from international
lenders for investments in energy efficiency improvements, and a market for energy
efficiency services has not been developed in the country.
Recommendations
 Ensure the full implementation of the 2013 Law on Energy Efficiency and Energy
Savings through the adoption of all implementing measures and standards.
 Develop a more comprehensive demand-side energy efficiency policy framework,
including building codes, passenger vehicle fuel efficiency standards, MEPS and
labelling for appliances and energy-using equipment, and well-enforced audit
requirements for industry.
 Improve ministerial co-ordination on energy efficiency and consider the creation of a
dedicated agency or department to oversee the development and implementation of
energy efficiency policies and measures, alongside improved data collection.
109
References
ADB (Asian Development Bank) (2022), Tajikistan: Access to Green Finance Project,
Mandaluyong, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/evaluation-document/774551/files/pvr-
0346.pdf
C2E2 (Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency) (2015), Accelerating Energy Efficiency:
Initiatives and Opportunities – Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia,
https://c2e2.unepdtu.org/kms_object/accelerating-energy-efficiency-initiatives-and-
opportunities-eastern-europe-the-caucasus-and-central-asia-english-version
EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) (2020), Tajikistan Energy
Efficiency Framework, London,
https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/project-information/board-
documents/1395294441448/Tajikistan_Energy_Efficiency_Framework_Board_Report.pdf?
blobnocache=true
EBRD (2017), Milestone for pioneering EBRD climate credit line in Tajikistan, London,
https://www.ebrd.com/news/2017/milestone-for-pioneering-ebrd-climate-credit-line-in-
tajikistan.html
Energy Charter (2013), In-Depth Energy Efficiency Review Tajikistan,
https://www.energycharter.org/fileadmin/DocumentsMedia/IDEER/IDEER-
Tajikistan_2013_en.pdf
IEA (International Energy Agency) (2022), Tajikistan Country Profile,
https://www.iea.org/countries/tajikistan
IEA (2021), Cross-Border Electricity Trading for Tajikistan: A Roadmap,
https://www.iea.org/reports/cross-border-electricity-trading-for-tajikistan-a-roadmap
IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) (2021), Tajikistan Energy Profile,
https://www.irena.org/IRENADocuments/Statistical_Profiles/Asia/Tajikistan_Asia_RE_SP.p
df
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Republic of Tajikistan, http://mewr.gov.tj/ru
TajStat (Tajikistan Statistical Agency) (2018), Report on the results of one-off sample
survey on ‘The state of the energy facilities and efficiency of use in 2016’.
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) (2011), Energy Efficiency Master Plan for
Tajikistan,
https://www.undp.org/content/dam/tajikistan/docs/library/UNDP_TJK_Energy_Efficiency_M
aster_Plan_for_Tajikistan_Eng.pdf
World Bank (2012), TALCO Energy Audit: Improved efficiency could help solve winter
electricity shortages, Fact Sheet,
https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/tj-talco-energy-audit-fact-
sheet.pdf
110
10. Renewable energy
Key data:
(2020)
Total renewable energy supply: 1.6 Mtoe (42.7% of TES); all hydropower, bioenergy data
not available*
Total renewable electricity supply: 18.1 TWh (90.1% of electricity generation): all
hydropower
World renewable energy shares (2019): 13.8% of TES and 26.0% of electricity generation
* Bioenergy (e.g. solid biofuels) consumption in the residential sector is not systematically tracked
Overview
In Tajikistan more than 95% of energy is generated in large hydropower stations. In the
Strategy 2030 adopted in 2016, the goal is to diversify the generation sources by 10%,
including through RES. The Strategy 2030 also points out the need to create conditions
for the development of RES, in particular for “further development of small hydropower
and other RES to reduce poverty and ensure access of the population, especially the rural
population, to social benefits, and for the overall development of the economy, small
business.” Attention is paid in the Strategy 2030 to reduce the share of imported energy
resources through the development of RES.
Supply
The share of RES in Tajikistan’s TES is among the highest in the world due to large
hydropower resources and a high rate of electrification. Between 2000 and 2015 around
99% of electricity was generated with hydro, the share being above 90% still in 2020. With
the upcoming capacity additions [Rogun], the share is likely to increase again. The
dominance of hydropower in RES leads to similarities in the patterns of RES in TES and
in TFC.
According to the available data, hydropower accounts for all of the total renewable energy
supply in the country. However, the household energy consumption survey conducted in
2016 revealed the magnitude of bioenergy (mainly fuelwood) use that is almost on par with
the hydro contribution to the TES (1.2 Mtoe versus 1.6 Mtoe). Wind power and solar PV
are yet to be introduced to the Tajikistan’s energy system.
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10. RENEWABLE ENERGY
Figure 10.1 Renewable energy shares in Tajikistan’s energy system, 1990-2020

Share (%)
100 1990
2000
80
2010
60
2010
40
20
Total energy supply Electricity generation Total final energy consumption*

Hydroelectricity has a key role in Tajikistan’s energy system.

* Includes direct use in TFC and indirect use through electricity and heat consumption.
Figure 10.2 Renewable energy in Tajikistan’s total energy supply, 2000-2020

Mtoe Share (%)
2.0 100
1.6 80
1.2 60
0.8 40
0.4 20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Hydro Renewables share (right axis) IEA. All rights reserved.
Hydropower is currently the only source of renewable electricity in Tajikistan.

Note: Data not available for bioenergy consumption (see discussion on bioenergy below).
Data on bioenergy consumption in Tajikistan are not available on a regular basis. However,
the statistics agency conducted a one-off survey in 2016 (TajStat, 2018) to assess energy
consumption in the households. The results are shown in Table 10.1 below.
Table 10.1 Consumption of energy resources in Tajikistan households, 2016

Mtoe
Fuelwood 1.01
Other solid biofuels* 0.23
Electricity 0.42
Coal 0.19
Oil products 0.33
* Includes cattle manure, cotton husks, corn leaves, wood pellets and bushes.
Source: Adapted from TajStat (2018), Report on the results of one-off sample survey on the state of the energy facilities
and efficiency of use in 2016; data converted from reporting units to common unit using default conversion factors form
IRES (UN, 2018).
112
According to the survey data, the households depend heavily on solid biofuels, for around

60% of their needs. This quantity is not currently accounted for in the official country TES
and once added will have a direct impact on the share of renewables in the TES and TFC
(SDG 7.2). It is encouraged to repeat the survey at regular intervals and develop
methodology to estimate the bioenergy consumption in between surveys. The resulting
information would allow the government to plan policies and measures for more
sustainable use of biomass in the country.
Figure 10.3 Renewable energy share of total energy supply in selected countries,
2019
50%
Other*
40%
Bioenergy**
30%
Solar
20%
Wind
10%
Hydro***

* Includes geothermal, primary heat, and wave and ocean energy.
** Includes, solid, liquid and gaseous biofuels and renewable waste.
*** Excludes pumped storage.
Renewable electricity generation

Of the available electricity generation capacity of 4.7 GW, 4.3 GW were HPPs (see
generation capacity in the Electricity section, Table 3.1). In 2020, renewable energy (all
hydro) accounted for 90% (18.1 TWh) of its electricity generation.
Figure 10.4 Renewable energy in Tajikistan’s electricity generation, 2000-2020

TWh Share (%)
20 100
15 95
10 90
5 85
≈
800
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Hydro Renewables share (right axis) IEA. All rights reserved.
While still high, the share of renewable electricity has decreased.

More than 90% of energy production in Tajikistan comes from hydro, meaning that Tajik
energy is relatively green. Additionally, the price for electricity is relatively low due to the
113
fact that most power plants were built during the Soviet era, and the social factors that
need to be taken into account when determining tariffs.
In the Renewable Energy Development and Small Hydropower Plants Construction

Programme for 2016-2020, preliminary information is provided in the form of a table on the
list of projects that have most potential and are open to attract investment, along with
available data on wind potential in certain regions – all this information is publicly
accessible. The programme indicates the availability of preliminary feasibility studies for
RES facilities, accessible on the MEWR site.
Figure 10.5 Renewable energy share in electricity generation in selected countries,

2019
100%
Other*
80% Bioenergy**
60% Solar
40% Wind
Hydro***
20%

* Includes geothermal, primary heat and wave and ocean energy.
** Includes, solid, liquid and gaseous biofuels and renewable waste.
*** Excludes pumped storage.
The MEWR has further plans to develop a potential energy facilities cadastre, and currently
is focusing on stimulating a study on wind potential in line with the new opportunities that
exist in this sector, with the current available information measured at low altitudes.
Detailed studies on solar are being conducted with development partners (World Bank,
ADB, US Agency for International Development [USAID]), particularly on evaluating the
potential for solar panels in the Sughd Region in order to attract investors through auction.
The most extensive information available is for small hydropower, since most gauges
existing since Soviet times continue to function.
Grid access
The national grid is regulated by the Law on Licensing of Separate Types of Activities and
the Regulation. For the construction of RES power plants, licences need to be obtained
from the Committee on Construction and Architecture and MEWR. These can be granted
relatively quickly and do not require much documentation to be supplied.
According to the Law on the Use of Renewable Energy Sources, “power grid operators
and wholesale consumers are required to purchase energy from renewable energy
sources on the basis of an agreement while maintaining the established balance of
production and quality of energy from renewable energy sources”. The law goes on to
state that “connecting to energy networks of energy producers from renewable energy
sources is carried out on a preferential basis in accordance with the legislation of the
Republic of Tajikistan”. However, only the RES stations managed by Pamir Energy
(founded in 2002 as a public-private partnership by the government and the Aga Khan
114
Fund for Economic Development) are connected to a common and/or regional energy

network. For a variety of reasons, the country’s remaining small stations work outside the
energy system. Although this is a sector that is well regulated by law, in practice many
stations are not connected to the system.
System integration of variable renewable resources

Most renewable energy sources in Tajikistan are based on water resources. The number
of solar and wind power stations is not high and they operate off grid. At the same time,
many of the existing small HPPs operate irregularly due to the fact that flow is not always
adequate for electricity generation. It follows that the synergy of technologies for electricity
generation is highly relevant to Tajikistan, and while there are few studies in this area,
USAID is working towards the installation of solar and water technologies in Gorno-
Badakhshan.
Developing a cross-sectoral approach

Up to 2016, heating in winter throughout Tajikistan, including the capital Dushanbe, was
by electricity (generated mainly by hydro). After the Dushanbe-2 coal-fired plant began
operating, centralised heating was restored in the city. Restoration of centralised heating
in other cities will be highly expensive, hence the government does not plan to extend this
beyond the city of Dushanbe within the next five years at least. At the same time, the rest
of Tajikistan is mainly heated through electricity, biomass and coal.
Meanwhile, in Dushanbe projects are being implemented with EBRD to finance the private
sector (mostly sports facilities), providing loans to establish RES and implement energy-
efficient measures. If this initiative is successful, it will also be applied to other private
sectors to offset the government not investing in the restoration of centralised heating
outside Dushanbe in the near future.
Electromobility
The State Target Programme for the Development of the Transport Complex of the
Republic of Tajikistan up to 2025 sets out targets for electrifying Tajikistan’s transport
sector. In the medium term, the government plans to create trolleybus parks, traction
substations and traction networks in the cities of Kurgan-Tyube and Kulyab, in addition to
granting preferential loans for international transport companies to be able to purchase
vehicles that meet international standards.
Rising passenger numbers combined with the natural increase in the population provides
the rationale to invest in the creation of a trolleybus suburban line in the directions around
the cities of Vakhdat, Tursunzade, Gissar district and Somoni village of Rudaki District, as
well as the cities of Kurgan-Tube and Sarband.
The programme also sets out plans for the purchase of a large number of passenger buses
and trolleybuses, as well as the introduction of programmes to remodel the transport
sector, in particular the GLONASS satellite navigation system, aimed at improving and
efficient use of vehicles.
115
Policies and measures

The Strategy 2030 sets the task to improve the “state of housing and communal services
(housing and communal services) of settlements (water supply, sewerage, gas, heat,
electricity, collection and utilisation of domestic waste)”, which in particular will help solve
a number of environmental problems. In order to optimise the environmental situation in
the transport sector, it is proposed to develop and enforce environmental requirements for
transport. The Strategy 2030 also looks at the implementation of energy-efficient
technologies in production: the provision of rational production models will be achieved
through the introduction of new energy- and resource-saving technologies, reducing waste
and CO2 emissions, thus creating opportunities for green employment.
The incorporated common mechanisms in the Strategy 2030 are described in greater
detail in sectoral programmes (Action Plans), in particular in the Programme for the
Development of Renewable Energy Sources and Construction of Small Hydroelectric
Power Plants for 2016-2020, which specifies the RES facilities that need to be built and
proposes a mechanism for obtaining more accurate figures on the potential for RES and
the elimination of unnecessary administrative barriers.
Assessment
The government supports development of RES by providing a range of financial incentives,
also promulgated in the Law on RES of Tajikistan. It considers developing RES as
environmental and/or energy-saving activities and provides details of appropriate benefits
for legal entities and individuals, engaged in developing renewables. The tax code
provides details of financial incentives based on the size of finances and volumes of
production for legal entities and individual entrepreneurs engaged in the production of
energy from renewable energy sources. Article 242 of the tax code states: “Released from
payment of royalty for water use of water bodies for the purpose of generating electricity
at a capacity of energy generating objects of not more than 1 000 kW.” According to Article
312 of the Tax Committee under the Government, it is possible to be granted additional
incentives for the construction of HPPs.
While the government currently has a strict price policy for electricity, it is working on a
new tariff methodology and the establishment of an independent regulator. Moreover, the
country’s largest region, the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (or Kuhistani
Badakhshan Autonomous Region), is able to set its own tariff in a region where electricity
is entirely from small hydro and the price is higher in comparison with the other regions.
The coupling of the electricity, heat, cooling and transport sectors is highly significant for
Tajikistan. Until 2016, all of the country, including Dushanbe, was heated in the winter
months using electricity (mainly hydro). Only after the Dushanbe-2 coal-fired plant began
operating was central heating restored in the city. The restoration of central heating in
other cities will involve huge costs, meaning that for the next five years at least the
government does not plan to extend this beyond Dushanbe, and the rest of the country
remains heated mainly through electricity, biomass and coal.
A lack of financing is holding back the promotion of energy efficiency and renewable
energy in the power sector, the main causes being low tariffs and low revenue collection,
116
underdeveloped institutional capacity, absence of support mechanisms, and lack of

awareness and knowledge within the industry, SMEs and the general population.
Recommendations
 Evaluate the economic potential of renewable energy and use the assessment results
to design an action plan to take advantage of that potential.
 Implement renewable energy targets, taking into account the cost-effectiveness of all
available policy options and the need for consistency with electricity market reform
measures.
 Develop and implement programmes to install solar collectors, batteries and other
independent renewable energy technologies in remote parts of the country to ensure
cost-effective access to energy in those areas.
 Foster using incentives for small renewable energy suppliers, to encourage
entrepreneurship and the establishment of small businesses in the energy sector.
 Clarify and streamline the authorisation and licensing process for new RES plants by
establishing a single point of contact.
 Define a transparent communication strategy for contentious RES projects and
support project developers with awareness-raising campaigns and stakeholder
involvement.
 Develop and apply a methodology for comprehensive resource assessment and
identification of RES potential to select the best locations for RES plants, taking
environmental and social impacts into account.
 Develop and apply a methodology for comprehensive resource assessment and
identification of RES potential to select the best locations for RES plants, taking
environmental and social impacts into account.
117
References
ADB (Asian Development Bank) (2022), Tajikistan: Access to Green Finance Project,
Validation Report, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/evaluation-
document/774551/files/pvr-0346.pdf
ADB (2020), Proposed Grants and Technical Assistance Grant, Republic of Tajikistan:
Power Sector Development Program, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/project-
documents/53315/53315-001-rrp-en.pdf
Barqi Tojik, Projects, http://www.barqitojik.tj/activity/projects/305
CABAR (Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting) (2021), Renewable energy of
Tajikistan: Why is it important for the country, but not a priority?,
https://cabar.asia/en/renewable-energy-of-tajikistan-why-is-it-important-for-the-country-but-
not-a-priority
EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) (2021), Tajikistan –
Transition Report 2021-22: System Upgrade, https://www.ebrd.com/publications/transition-
report-202122-tajikistan
(database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics
IEA (2021), Cross-Border Electricity Trading for Tajikistan: A Roadmap,
https://www.iea.org/reports/cross-border-electricity-trading-for-tajikistan-a-roadmap.
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Republic of Tajikistan, http://mewr.gov.tj/ru/
Republic of Tajikistan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2019), The energy sector of Tajikistan:
Key indicators, https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/185/the-energy-sector-of-the-republic-of-
tajikistan
TajStat (2018), Report on the results of one-off sample survey on the state of the energy
facilities and efficiency of use in 2016.
World Bank (2013), Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis: Electricity Supply and Demand
Alternatives,
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/500811468116363418/pdf/Tajikistans-winter-
energy-crisis-electricity-supply-and-demand-alternatives.pdf
118
11. Energy research, development
and demonstration
Overview
The Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan established the Centre for the Innovative
Development of Science and New Technologies aimed at research, development and
implementation of innovative projects and new technologies, particularly in the energy
sector. A major RES project is developing solar energy potential, with a particular focus on
the aluminium industry.
Within the Academy of Sciences institutions, there are research units that specialise in
energy technologies. The Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology
specialises in research on energy and energy efficiency, ecology and water resources.
The SUE Nurofar was established as a technological research, documentation and design
institute for energy structures in Tajikistan. The SUE TojikNIIGiM (Institute of Water
Engineering and Amelioration) operates under the MEWR to research energy efficiency,
with a focus on pump stations. In 2017, the Russian state-owned nuclear energy company
Rosatom and the Academy of Sciences signed an agreement for co-operation in the
peaceful use of nuclear energy, with the aim of designing and operating research nuclear
reactors in Tajikistan including the restoration of the Argus aqueous homogenous mini
reactor – one of only two in the world.
The government has provided limited financial support for RD&D in the energy sector,
particularly RES, but it has been working closely with international partners, promoting
adoption of modern innovative technologies where possible.
Several private projects for developing local producers of the equipment for small
hydroelectric power stations are being developed in Tajikistan: two local producers, the
CJSC Energoremont and the SUE Tojiktekstilmash, have begun to make turbines for small
HPPs to hand over on a turnkey basis.
Legal and institutional basis

The government is updating the Law on the Technological Park, which was first adopted
in 2010 by the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies to develop high-tech parks. As
an inducement to attract investors, there are proposals to reduce tax for information
technology companies. The ministry and TALCO are also looking at developing an
industrial technical park, an initiative that will bring together several relevant projects in
one place.
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11. ENERGY RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION
Several Tajik universities – including Tajik Technical University, Tajik National University,
Technological University of Tajikistan, Institute of Energy and Russian-Tajik Slavonic
University – have technical parks within their own premises connected to their specific
academic areas.
Funding
Research and development institutions in Tajikistan, both public and private, are operating
on limited state budgets, mainly covering the cost of scientific staffs and some minor on-
site research projects. The technical institutes under ministry control usually benefit from
government programmes that release budgets for the construction of national projects.
These organisations have limited budgets, which come mainly from the government for
the purpose of paying professional staff and funding small research projects. The Academy
of Sciences has a limited budget of its own for researchers, while the universities have
budgets for developing practical and research centres within their premises.
Public institutions, including the Academy of Sciences, research departments of state

universities, Tajik Technical University, the Institute of Energy, and other scientific
institutes under the ministries such as Nurogar and TojikNIIgim, as well as private
enterprises, such as Sistemavtomatika, Energoremon and Tajiktekstil-mash, have been
actively searching for external donor funding for developing R&D projects. Funding for
major R&D projects has mainly come from the IFIs World Bank, ADB, USAID and Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
The government support to R&D is more policy oriented, as it recognises the role of
modern technology and innovation in reaching the country’s developmental goals,
although state financial support to the sector is very limited. The government’s work with
donor organisations in supporting R&D programmes is ongoing, but there are calls for
synchronising programme support and for scaling up the number of projects researched,
developed and/or deployed in Tajikistan.
Private-sector involvement
Private-sector spending on energy technology R&D and innovation is responsible for a
number of private projects for developing local producers of equipment for small HPPs.
Two local producers are the CJSCs Energoremont and Tojiktekstilmash, which have
started making turbines for small HPPs in Tajikistan, which they hand over on a turnkey
basis.
The OJSC Sisatemavtomatika is developing several projects with the support of the
government and donors. The RES Association of Tajikistan, within Sistemavtomatika, with
UNDP has established the National Centre for the Implementation of Renewable Energy
Sources and Energy Efficiency in Dushanbe, with the main task of training specialists in
RES and energy efficiency technologies, in particular solar energy, energy saving, energy
efficiency and energy-saving technologies. A regular operational resource centre and
exhibition hall has been created where information on modern RES and energy efficiency
technologies is provided by the centre’s specialists. The exhibition hall displays equipment
for solar energy systems and equipment for low energy consumption.
120
With the support of donors, Sistemavtomatika provides training in solar collector

manufacture (water heaters) for women in rural areas. Other projects include such projects
as supporting an orphanage with USAID within the framework of the Implementation of
Energy Efficiency Measures for the Water Supply System of the Tanobchi Orphanage,
Temurmalik District, Khatlon Region, Tajikistan. This project was particularly aimed at
updating the infrastructure of the water supply and distribution system of the orphanage,
reducing water losses and increasing energy efficiency of the pumping station and quality
of drinking water.
As part of training specialists, USAID has supported the Training Certified Energy Audit
and Energy Management Specialists project in co-operation with the US Association of
Energy Engineers.
The members of the RES Association of Tajikistan are involved in surveys of the solar and
wind potential of the country. They have calculated the monthly and annual averages of
solar radiation on horizontal and inclined surfaces based on data from a range of cities,
determining average annual solar production from solar panel output, and providing the
different optimal orientations and tilt angles of solar panels for each city.
Assessment
Currently the World Bank and ADB are planning to support research for solar in Sughd
Region, where the government is planning to construct solar stations through auction,
which will provide an opportunity for the private sector to invest. USAID is also financing
energy efficiency technologies for the evaluation of solar radiation.
In 2021, the Academy of Sciences together with Japanese research institutes (Science
and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development [SATREPS]) started
the Construction of a Decarbonized Heat Energy Supply System Using Groundwater
Resources, a project which aims to contribute to regional stabilisation and global warming
countermeasures by improving the energy situation through focusing on the abundant
groundwater resources in Tajikistan, which are affected by severe differences in
temperature and insufficient deposits of oil and gas.
Over five years, the following three areas of research will be carried out through
constructing and disseminating an advanced ground source heat pump (GSHP) system
for arid regions (Tajikistan model) that integrates information and communication
technologies such as artificial intelligence: the development of groundwater flow and heat
transport models based on field surveys, GIS data and artificial intelligence, and the
construction of geothermal and groundwater heat utilisation potential maps;
implementation of long-term heating and cooling tests using a demonstration plant with
multimodal measurement and artificial intelligence; and institutional design for
dissemination of the Tajikistan model.
The first two areas are intended to develop an optimal geothermal heating and cooling
system based on artificial intelligence and which will be reflected in the institutional design.
In addition, in collaboration with each stakeholder, a system plan will be developed that
includes the industrialisation of the GSHP system, employment creation and a financing
scheme for its introduction.
121
Noteworthy projects and research areas including other

collaborative efforts
In 2022, a new project financed by the World Bank and ADB has started to assess the use
of relatively cheap solar energy in Tajikistan, with results to be released in the near future.
Additionally, a Japanese-funded project on groundwater resources is a unique project for
Tajikistan and has the possibility to be used as a model for other countries in region.
Another project that could be used as a model is the completion in 2020 of the Murghob
solar power plant with USAID support in the mountains of Gorno-Badakhshan (it is the
country’s highest town at 3 650 metres above sea level); it generates solar in the winter
when the new hydro plant, opened in 2018 with KfW support, loses efficiency.
Demonstration and commercialisation

The open joint-stock company (OSJC) Sistemavtomatika in partnership with the
universities runs a technical lab which provides opportunities for the population to evaluate
finance implications.
UNDP-supported projects include two local producers, Energoremont and

Tojiktekstilmash, which have begun to make turbines for small HPPs and hand over these
hydroelectric power stations on a turnkey basis.
UNDP has also helped to set up a pilot project in rural Jamoat Burunov which included the
rehabilitation of two units of the Nurofar small HPP; refurbishment of the hospital, school
and kindergarten; construction of a mini-dairy; refurbishment of a pumping station;
construction of a small greenhouse; and establishment of the operator who was
responsible for operation and management and collecting fees. This integrated approach
measurably improves community living conditions and contributes to poverty eradication
far more than only constructing an energy source – here a small HPP. Surveys conducted
after the project have shown the importance of community involvement.
122
Recommendations

 Formulate an integrated energy R&D strategy based on close co-ordination with the
Academy of Sciences and its public research institutions, relevant ministries, national
enterprises, SMEs, IFIs and donors in the energy sector. Include in the R&D strategy:
> a mixture of base financing and competitive project-based granting
> support for innovative SMEs and start-ups
> support for research on climate change and adaptation in the energy sector
> measures to further develop university technology parks
> include measures to ensure continued co-operation for effective implementation of
such strategy.
 Establish a framework to develop infrastructure and knowledge related to sustainable
technologies, especially energy efficiency and renewable energy, in the R&D strategy.
 Facilitate access to available technology transfer options offered by climate funds, IFIs
and donors; build up relevant policy capacity; and promote the development of relevant
projects.
 Track public energy-related R&D funding in detail (e.g. by technology and energy
source) to inform energy-related R&D policy decisions.
 Membership in international RD&D projects and platforms, for the water-energy nexus
and the clean coal sector, in particular.
123
References
Atomnaya Energiya (2017), Ядерный реактор “Аргус” в Таджикистане реанимируют для
мирных целей, http://www.atomic-energy.ru/news/2017/03/02/73193
Centre for Innovative Development of Science and New Technologies, National Academy
of Sciences of Tajikistan, http://www.cidsnt.tj
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Republic of Tajikistan, http://mewr.gov.tj/ru
National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, http://www.anrt.tj/index.php/ru/instituty-
issledovaniya/otdelenie-fiziko-matematicheskih-himicheskih/institut-vodnykh-problem-
gidroenergetikii-ekologii
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) (2017), Technology transfer and market
development for SHP in Tajikistan, UNDP,
https://www.tj.undp.org/content/tajikistan/en/home/operations/projects/environment_and_en
ergy/technology-transfer-and-market-development-for-shp-in-tajikistan
124
ANNEX A: Review criteria and acknowledgements
ANNEXES
Review criteria
The Shared Goals, which were adopted by the IEA Ministers at their 4 June 1993 meeting in Paris, provide
the evaluation criteria for the in-depth reviews conducted by the IEA. The Shared Goals are presented in
Annex C.
Acknowledgements
This Tajikistan Energy Sector Review 2022 was written by Thea Khitarishvili, in co-operation with Markus
Fager-Pintilä, who prepared the graphs and drafted the sections related to statistics, and Armin Mayer,
who drafted the Energy Efficiency chapter.
Anna Petrus organised and coordinated the review process, in cooperation with Talya Vatman, Policy
Programme Manager of the IEA led part of the EU4Energy Programme.
Special thanks go to the Government of Tajikistan and its Ministry of Energy and Water Resources and
the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan for their energy sector review
questionnaire submission and for their feedback, and to Furugzod Usmonov, EU4Energy Country Expert
for Tajikistan, for his in-country co-ordination and input.
The report benefited from comments and feedback from Rebecca Gaghen, Head of the Europe, Middle
East, Africa and Latin America Division.
Thanks go to the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their assistance in producing the report,
particularly to Erin Crum who carried editorial responsibility.
125
ANNEXES
ANNEX B: Energy balances and key statistical data

Tajikistan
Energy balances and key statistical data
Unit: Mtoe
SUPPLY 1990 2000 2010 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL PRODUCTION 2.03 1.26 1.54 2.28 2.45 2.57 2.52
Coal 0.37 0.01 0.09 0.79 0.84 0.90 0.94
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil 0.15 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Natural gas 0.09 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Biofuels and w aste¹ - - - - - - -
Nuclear - - - - - - -
Hydro 1.42 1.21 1.41 1.47 1.58 1.65 1.56
Wind - - - - - - -
Geothermal - - - - - - -
Solar/other - - - - - - -
TOTAL NET IMPORTS 3.28 0.88 0.63 0.70 0.79 0.96 1.14
Coal Exports 0.18 - 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00
Imports 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02
Net imports 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.02
Oil Exports 0.06 0.02 0.02 - - - -
Imports 1.70 0.19 0.53 0.83 0.99 1.06 1.08
Int'l marine and aviation bunkers -0.02 -0.00 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03
Net imports 1.62 0.17 0.48 0.82 0.96 1.01 1.05
Natural gas Exports - - - - - - -
Imports 1.30 0.60 0.14 - 0.05 0.19 0.19
Net imports 1.30 0.60 0.14 - 0.05 0.19 0.19
Electricity Exports 0.49 0.34 0.02 0.12 0.25 0.27 0.16
Imports 0.59 0.45 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.03
Net imports 0.10 0.11 0.01 -0.11 -0.21 -0.25 -0.13
TOTAL STOCK CHANGES - - - - - - -
2
TOTAL SUPPLY (TES) 5.31 2.15 2.18 2.99 3.24 3.53 3.66
Coal 0.63 0.01 0.09 0.79 0.83 0.90 0.96
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil 1.77 0.19 0.50 0.84 0.98 1.04 1.08
Natural gas 1.39 0.63 0.16 0.00 0.05 0.19 0.19
Nuclear - - - - - - -
Hydro 1.42 1.21 1.41 1.47 1.58 1.65 1.56
Wind - - - - - - -
Electricity trade3 0.10 0.11 0.01 -0.11 -0.21 -0.25 -0.13
Shares in TES (%)
Coal 11.8 0.6 4.1 26.3 25.6 25.5 26.3
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil 33.4 8.8 23.1 28.1 30.4 29.4 29.4
Natural gas 26.1 29.2 7.4 0.0 1.5 5.5 5.3
Biofuels and waste¹ - - - - - - -
Nuclear - - - - - - -
Hydro 26.7 56.1 64.8 49.3 48.9 46.7 42.6
Wind - - - - - - -
Electricity trade 3 1.9 5.3 0.6 -3.8 -6.3 -7.0 -3.5
0 is negligible, - is nil, .. is not available. Please note: rounding may cause totals to differ from the sum of the elements.
126
ANNEXES
Unit: Mtoe
ANNEXES
DEMAND
FINAL CONSUMPTION 1990 2000 2010 2017 2018 2019 2020
TFC 4.68 1.80 1.96 2.55 2.76 3.00 3.09

Coal 0.63 0.01 0.09 0.49 0.45 0.49 0.50
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil 1.68 0.19 0.50 0.84 0.98 1.02 1.06
Natural gas 0.73 0.38 0.15 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.09
Electricity 1.53 1.14 1.21 1.18 1.22 1.30 1.32
Heat 0.11 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.12
Shares in TFC (%)
Coal 13.4 0.7 4.6 19.1 16.3 16.3 16.2
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil 35.9 10.5 25.6 32.8 35.3 34.1 34.4
Natural gas 15.7 21.3 7.4 0.0 1.7 3.4 2.9
Electricity 32.6 63.4 61.9 46.5 44.3 43.4 42.8
Heat 2.4 4.2 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.8
TOTAL INDUSTRY4 0.99 0.46 0.64 0.70 0.77 0.82 0.62
Coal - - - 0.28 0.25 0.28 0.26
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil - 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.15 0.10 0.04
Natural gas - - - - 0.05 0.10 0.09
Electricity 0.99 0.46 0.64 0.38 0.33 0.35 0.24
Heat - - - - - - -
Shares in total industry (%)
Coal - - - 39.6 32.2 33.6 41.4
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil - 0.2 0.1 5.9 19.5 12.3 6.4
Natural gas - - - - 6.1 12.1 14.4
Electricity 100.0 99.8 99.9 54.6 42.3 42.0 37.9
Heat - - - - - - -
TRANSPORT 0.29 0.02 0.10 0.78 0.83 0.92 1.02
OTHER5 3.40 1.31 1.21 1.07 1.17 1.25 1.44
Coal 0.63 0.01 0.09 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.24
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil 1.41 0.17 0.41 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Natural gas 0.73 0.38 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity 0.52 0.67 0.57 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.08
Heat 0.11 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.12
Shares in other (%)
Coal 18.5 0.9 7.4 19.6 17.4 16.7 16.7
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil 41.4 12.8 33.8 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.0
Natural gas 21.6 29.2 11.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Electricity 15.3 51.3 47.0 75.0 77.0 76.4 75.2
Heat 3.3 5.8 0.8 4.0 5.6 6.7 8.1

127
ANNEXES
Unit: Mtoe
DEMAND
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION AND LOSSES 1990 2000 2010 2017 2018 2019 2020
ELECTRICITY GENERATION6
Input (Mtoe) 1.96 1.37 1.42 1.68 1.89 2.07 1.97
Output (Mtoe) 1.56 1.23 1.41 1.56 1.70 1.80 1.73
Output (TWh) 18.15 14.25 16.44 18.11 19.74 20.96 20.10
Output Shares (%)
Coal - - - 5.4 6.8 7.0 8.2
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil - - - - - - -
Natural gas 9.1 1.6 0.2 - - 1.5 1.6
Nuclear - - - - - - -
Hydro 90.9 98.4 99.8 94.6 93.2 91.5 90.1
Wind - - - - - - -
TOTAL LOSSES 0.63 0.35 0.22 0.39 0.48 0.54 0.57
of w hich:
Electricity and heat generation7 0.40 0.15 0.00 0.12 0.20 0.27 0.24
Other transformation 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Ow n use and transmission/distribution losses 0.14 0.20 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.31
Statistical differences - - 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.00 0.00
INDICATORS 1990 2000 2010 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP (billion 2015 USD) 7.79 2.60 5.60 8.99 9.65 10.37 10.84
Population (millions) 5.28 6.22 7.53 8.88 9.10 9.32 9.54
TES/GDP (toe/1000 USD) 8 0.68 0.83 0.39 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34
Energy production/TES 0.38 0.59 0.71 0.76 0.76 0.73 0.69
Per capita TES (toe/capita) 1.00 0.35 0.29 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.38
Oil supply/GDP (toe/1000 USD) 8 0.23 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10
TFC/GDP (toe/1000 USD) 8 0.60 0.69 0.35 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29
Per capita TFC (toe/capita) 0.89 0.29 0.26 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.32
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (MtCO2) 9 11.0 2.2 2.3 5.2 6.2 6.9 7.3
CO2 emissions from bunkers (MtCO2) 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
GROWTH RATES (% per year) 90-00 00-10 10-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 00-20
TES -8.6 0.1 4.6 8.3 9.2 3.6 2.7

Coal -32.5 22.0 36.5 5.3 8.9 6.5 24.4
Peat - - - - - - -
Oil -20.1 10.3 7.6 17.3 5.4 3.6 9.1
Natural gas -7.6 -12.7 -51.8 4796.1 308.7 0.0 -5.7
Nuclear - - - - - - -
Hydro -1.6 1.6 0.6 7.4 4.2 -5.5 1.3
Wind - - - - - - -
TFC -9.1 0.8 3.9 8.4 8.4 3.2 2.7
Electricity consumption -2.9 0.6 -0.3 3.3 6.3 1.6 0.7
Energy production -4.6 2.0 5.8 7.3 4.9 -1.9 3.5
Net oil imports -20.2 10.8 8.0 17.8 5.6 3.6 9.5
GDP -10.4 8.0 7.0 7.3 7.5 4.5 7.4
TES/GDP 1.9 -7.3 -2.2 1.0 1.6 -0.9 -4.4
TFC/GDP 1.4 -6.6 -2.9 1.0 0.9 -1.3 -4.3
128
ANNEXES
Footnotes to energy balances and key statistical data
ANNEXES
1. Data on consumption of (solid) biofuels is not systematically collected in Tajikistan.
2. Excludes international marine bunkers and international aviation bunkers.
3. Total supply of electricity represents net trade. A negative number in the share of TES indicates that
exports are greater than imports.
4. Industry includes non-energy use.
5. Other includes residential, commercial and public services, agriculture/forestry, fishing and other non-
specified.
6. Inputs to electricity generation include inputs to electricity, CHP and heat plants. Output refers only to
electricity generation.
7. Losses arising in the production of electricity and heat at main activity producer utilities and
autoproducers. For non-fossil-fuel electricity generation, theoretical losses are shown based on plant
efficiencies of 100% for hydro, wind and solar photovoltaic.
8. Toe per thousand US dollars at 2015 prices and exchange rates.
9. “CO2 emissions from fuel combustion” have been estimated using the IPCC Tier I Sectoral
Approach methodology from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions from international marine and
aviation bunkers are not included in national totals.
129
ANNEXES
ANNEX C: International Energy Agency Shared Goals

The member countries* of the International Energy Agency (IEA) seek to create conditions in which the
energy sectors of their economies can make the fullest possible contribution to sustainable economic
development and to the well-being of their people and of the environment. In formulating energy policies,
the establishment of free and open markets is a fundamental point of departure, though energy security
and environmental protection need to be given particular emphasis by governments. IEA countries
recognise the significance of increasing global interdependence in energy. They therefore seek to
promote the effective operation of international energy markets and encourage dialogue with all
participants. In order to secure their objectives, member countries therefore aim to create a policy
framework consistent with the following goals:
1. Diversity, efficiency and flexibility within the energy sector are basic conditions for longer-term
energy security: the fuels used within and across sectors and the sources of those fuels should be as
diverse as practicable. Non-fossil fuels, particularly nuclear and hydro power, make a substantial
contribution to the energy supply diversity of IEA countries as a group.
2. Energy systems should have the ability to respond promptly and flexibly to energy emergencies.
In some cases this requires collective mechanisms and action: IEA countries co-operate through the
Agency in responding jointly to oil supply emergencies.
3. The environmentally sustainable provision and use of energy are central to the achievement of
these shared goals. Decision-makers should seek to minimise the adverse environmental impacts of energy
activities, just as environmental decisions should take account of the energy consequences. Government
interventions should respect the Polluter Pays Principle where practicable.
4. More environmentally acceptable energy sources need to be encouraged and developed. Clean
and efficient use of fossil fuels is essential. The development of economic non-fossil sources is also a
priority. A number of IEA member countries wish to retain and improve the nuclear option for the future,
at the highest available safety standards, because nuclear energy does not emit carbon dioxide.
Renewable sources will also have an increasingly important contribution to make.
5. Improved energy efficiency can promote both environmental protection and energy security in a cost-
effective manner. There are significant opportunities for greater energy efficiency at all stages of the
energy cycle from production to consumption. Strong efforts by governments and all energy users are
needed to realise these opportunities.
6. Continued research, development and market deployment of new and improved energy
technologies make a critical contribution to achieving the objectives outlined above. Energy technology
policies should complement broader energy policies. International co-operation in the development and
dissemination of energy technologies, including industry participation and co-operation with non-member
countries, should be encouraged.
130
ANNEXES
7. Undistorted energy prices enable markets to work efficiently. Energy prices should not be held
ANNEXES
artificially below the costs of supply to promote social or industrial goals. To the extent necessary and
practicable, the environmental costs of energy production and use should be reflected in prices.
8. Free and open trade and a secure framework for investment contribute to efficient energy markets
and energy security. Distortions to energy trade and investment should be avoided.
9. Co-operation among all energy market participants helps to improve information and
understanding, and encourages the development of efficient, environmentally acceptable and flexible
energy systems and markets worldwide. These are needed to help promote the investment, trade and
confidence necessary to achieve global energy security and environmental objectives.
(The Shared Goals were adopted by IEA Ministers at the meeting of 4 June 1993 Paris, France.)
* Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States.
131
ANNEXES
ANNEX D: Glossary and list of abbreviations

In this report, abbreviations and acronyms are substituted for a number of terms used within the
International Energy Agency. While these terms generally have been written out on first mention, this
glossary provides a quick and central reference for the abbreviations used.
Acronyms and abbreviations

ADB Asian Development Bank
BOC Bokhtar Operating Company
CAPS Central Asia Power System
CASA-1000 Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project
CEP Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of Tajikistan
CJSC closed joint-stock company
CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation
CO2 carbon dioxide
CPC Coordination Electric Power Council of Central Asia
EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
EIB European Investment Bank
ESCO energy service company
GDP gross domestic product
GHG greenhouse gas
GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation
GSHP ground source heat pump
HCI Human Capital Index
HDI Human Development Index
HPP hydropower plant
IEA International Energy Agency
IFI international financial institution
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JODI Joint Organisations Data Initiative
JSC joint-stock company
LLC limited liability company

LNG liquefied natural gas
LPG liquefied petroleum gas
132
ANNEXES
LULUCF land use, land-use change and forestry
ANNEXES
MDP Medium-Term Development Programme
MEPS minimum energy performance standards
MEWR Ministry of Energy and Water Resources
NDC Nationally Determined Contribution
NSACC-2030 National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change of Tajikistan for the Period
until 2030
OJSC open joint-stock company
PPP purchashing power parity
PSA production-sharing agreement
PV photovoltaic
R&D research and development
RD&D research, development and deployment
RES renewable energy sources
SATREPS Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
SMEs small and medium enterprises
SUE state unitary enterprise
TajStat Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan
TALCO Tajik Aluminium Company
TES total energy supply
TFC total final consumption
TPP thermal power plant
TSO transmission system operator
TTGP Trans-Tajik Gas Pipeline Company
UNDP UN Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNSD United Nations Statistics Division
USAID United States Agency for International Development
VAT value-added tax

133
ANNEXES
Units of measure
bcm billion cubic metres
g gramme
Gcal gigacalorie
GW gigawatt
GWh gigawatt hour
kb/d thousand barrels per day
km kilometre
km 2 square kilometre
km3 cubic kilometre
kt kilotonne
kV kilovolt
kW kilowatt
kWh kilowatt hour
m metre
mcm million cubic metres
mm millimetre
Mt million tonnes
MtCO2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide
MtCO2-eq million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent
Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent
MW megawatt
PJ petajoule
TJ terajoule
toe tonne of oil equivalent
TWh terawatt-hours
134
This publication has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union and is part of the EU4Energy
programme. This publication reflects the views of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Secretariat but does not
necessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries or the European Union. The IEA makes no
representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect to the publication’s contents (including its completeness
or accuracy) and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the publication.
EU4Energy is a collaboration between the IEA, the European Union, Focus Countries and other implementing parties,
designed to support the aspirations of Focus Countries to implement sustainable energy policies and foster co-
operative energy sector development at the regional level.
This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,
to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

IEA Publications
International Energy Agency
Website: www.iea.org
Contact information: www.iea.org/about/contact
Typeset in France by IEA - June 2022

Cover design: IEA
Tajikistan 2022
This International Energy Agency (IEA) energy sector review of Tajikistan was conducted under the auspices
of the EU4Energy programme, which is being implemented by the IEA and the European Union, along with the
Energy Community Secretariat and the Energy Charter Secretariat.
With abundant water potential from its rivers, natural lakes and glaciers, Tajikistan is almost exclusively reliant on
hydro for electricity generation. It is home to some of the world’s largest hydropower plants and is ranked eighth in
the world for hydropower potential with an estimated 527 terawatt-hours (TWh). Currently only 4% of the country’s
hydro potential is exploited. Tajikistan’s geographic proximity to some of the world’s fastest-growing energy
markets means that investing in developing its hydropower potential can contribute to regional energy security
and the clean energy transition, in addition to addressing Tajikistan’s high vulnerability to climate change and
natural disasters.
Coupled with the IEA roadmap on cross-border electricity trading for Tajikistan, published in October 2021, this
report aims to give a holistic overview of Tajikistan’s energy sector and to assist policy making at all levels in
order to facilitate the effective delivery of the National Development Strategy for 2030 and its ambitious goals,
which include increasing hydropower generation capacity by 10 gigawatts and raising annual electricity exports
by 10 TWh. It also supports government efforts for ongoing energy sector reforms, aimed at restructuring the
state-owned vertically integrated electric utility with financial viability issues, introducing market mechanisms
to alleviate power sector challenges and updating its regulatory and tariff regimes.
The report commends the government of Tajikistan for setting clear goals for its national development strategy
and the subsequent sectoral development programmes, caveats the introduction of domestic coal as a key
support for national energy security structures, and advocates for the introduction of other renewable sources
and enhanced regional co operation for achieving energy security and sustainable development goals.
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1. Executive summary .....................................................................................................11

Key policy directions ..........................................................................................................14

Progress to date ................................................................................................................15

Key recommendations .......................................................................................................17

2. General energy policy .................................................................................................19

Country overview ...............................................................................................................19

Energy security ..................................................................................................................21

Energy supply and demand...............................................................................................22

Energy production and domestic supply ...........................................................................23

Energy consumption ..........................................................................................................25

Energy sector governance ................................................................................................26

Energy statistics ................................................................................................................27

Energy efficiency Indicators ..............................................................................................28

Energy data management and use ...................................................................................28

Supply and demand...........................................................................................................36

Imports and exports ...........................................................................................................41

Sector structure .................................................................................................................42

Policy framework ...............................................................................................................44

Infrastructure investments and cross-border trade ...........................................................44

Security of supply ..............................................................................................................46

System integration of renewable energy ...........................................................................46

Prices and tariffs ................................................................................................................47

Supply and demand...........................................................................................................54

Coal mining policy .............................................................................................................57

Sector structure .................................................................................................................57

R&D and technology development....................................................................................58

Supply and demand...........................................................................................................64

Exploration and production/upstream ...............................................................................65

Gas transportation and transit infrastructure .....................................................................65

Gas market structure .........................................................................................................65

Institutional and regulatory framework ..............................................................................65

ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION

Supply and demand...........................................................................................................70

District heating infrastructure modernisation .....................................................................71

Regulation and prices ........................................................................................................73

Supply and demand...........................................................................................................78

Oil market structure ...........................................................................................................80

8. Energy, environment and climate change ................................................................85

CO2 emissions from fuel combustion ................................................................................86

Climate change policy .......................................................................................................90

Energy and environment ...................................................................................................94

Air quality ...........................................................................................................................94

9. Energy efficiency .........................................................................................................99

Energy consumption ..........................................................................................................99

Trends by sector ............................................................................................................. 101

Policies and measures ................................................................................................... 104

Legislative framework ..................................................................................................... 105

Institutional framework.................................................................................................... 105

Financing and cross-cutting measures .......................................................................... 108

Assessment .................................................................................................................... 108

10. Renewable energy .................................................................................................. 111

Overview ......................................................................................................................... 111

Supply ............................................................................................................................. 111

Renewable electricity generation ................................................................................... 113

Policies and measures ................................................................................................... 116

Assessment .................................................................................................................... 116