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Influence of Peak Factors on Random Vibration Theory Based Site

ABSTRACT

Site response analysis based on the random vibration theory (RVT) approach often is used to
estimate site amplification in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for nuclear facilities. However,
studies have shown that RVT analysis provides a systematic over-prediction of site amplification
at the natural site frequencies when compared with the results obtained from a suite of input time
series. A critical part of the RVT approach is the peak factor, which represents the ratio of the
peak to rms value of a signal. This study investigates the influence of different peak factor models
on the site amplification predicted by RVT analysis. Comparisons show that the use of the
Vanmarcke (1975) peak factor model, rather than the commonly used Cartwright and Longuet-
Higgins (1956) peak factor model, provides RVT estimates of site amplification similar to those
from time series analysis. However, this agreement only occurs when the first mode site
frequency is larger than the corner frequency of the input motion. For other cases, further
refinements to the Vanmarcke (1975) peak factor model are necessary.

Introduction

Local site conditions affect the characteristics of earthquake ground shaking, and this effect is
quantified though site response analysis. Often, 1-dimensional (1-D) site response analysis is
used to model shear wave propagation from the base rock through a soil column to the ground
surface. 1-D site response analysis typically requires a rock acceleration-time history as input
and provides as output a surface acceleration-time history with an associated surface acceleration
response spectrum and period-dependent spectral amplification factors (i.e., the ratio of surface
to rock spectral acceleration at each period). A suite of input time histories is used in site
response analysis to generate a statistically stable estimate of the site response. Using a suite of
time series may involve heavy computations for probabilistic analyses and it may be difficult to
identify a sufficient number of appropriate input motions in areas with a paucity of earthquake
recordings.

An alternative is the Random Vibration Theory (RVT) approach to equivalent linear site
response analysis (e.g., Silva et al. 1997, Rathje and Ozbey 2006, Kottke and Rathje 2013). This
approach uses the same wave propagation theory as analyses that use input time series, but does
not require input time histories. RVT based site response analysis combines Parseval’s theorem
and extreme value statistics to predict the peak time domain values of motion from the Fourier

1
Xiaoyue Wang, Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at
Austin, Austin, United States, xy_wang@utexas.edu
2
E.M. Rathje, Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at
Austin, Austin, United States, e.rathje@mail.utexas.edu
Amplitude Spectrum of motion. Parseval’s theorem is used to compute the root-mean-square
(rms) acceleration and extreme value statistics is used to estimate the peak-to-rms ratio, called
the peak factor. The product of these values provides the peak acceleration or spectral
acceleration of the motion. Researchers have validated the application of RVT in site response
analysis (Silva et al. 1997, Rathje and Ozbey 2006), but more recent comparisons between time
series (TS) and RVT equivalent linear site response analysis have shown that RVT analysis may
predict amplification at the natural frequencies of a site 20 to 50% larger than TS analysis
(Kottke and Rathje 2013).

This paper investigates the influence of different statistical models for the peak factor on the site
amplification predicted by RVT-based site response analysis. The influence is studied through a
comparison between RVT and TS results for different peak factor models. Earthquakes of
different magnitudes and sites with different natural frequencies are used to better understand
how earthquake magnitude and site frequency influence the results.

RVT Procedure and Peak Factor Models

RVT based site response analysis uses a Fourier Amplitude Spectrum (FAS) and a duration of
ground motion as input. The basis of the RVT approach is that the peak acceleration of a signal
is the product of the rms value and an estimated peak factor (pf). The rms value is estimated
using Parseval’s theorem (Boore and Joyner 1984):

1 𝐷𝐷𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 2 ∞ 𝑟𝑟0
𝑎𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 = �𝐷𝐷 ∫0 |𝑎𝑎(𝑡𝑡)|2 𝑑𝑑𝑡𝑡 = � ∫0 |𝐴𝐴(𝑓𝑓)|2 𝑑𝑑𝑓𝑓 = �𝐷𝐷 (1)
𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝐷𝐷𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟

where 𝐷𝐷𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 is the rms duration obtained from the ground motion duration, 𝐷𝐷𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑟 (e.g., Boore and
Joyner 1984), 𝐴𝐴(𝑓𝑓) is the Fourier amplitude at frequency 𝑓𝑓, and 𝑚𝑚0 is the zero-order spectral
moment of the FAS.

The expected value of the peak factor is obtained from statistical models derived from extreme
value statistics. Many models of the statistical distribution of the peak factor have been proposed.
Cartwright and Longuet-Higgins (CL) (1956) proposed a model for the statistical distribution of
the peak factor for a stationary Gaussian process with zero mean and independent peaks. The
equation for the expected value of CL pf is (Cartwright and Longuet-Higgins 1956, Boore 2003):

∞ 2 𝑁𝑁𝑒𝑒
𝑝𝑝𝑓𝑓 = √2 ∫0 �1 − �1 − 𝜉𝜉𝑒𝑒 −𝜂𝜂 � � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 (2)

1 𝑟𝑟4
𝑁𝑁𝑒𝑒 = 𝜋𝜋 � 𝐷𝐷𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑟 (3)
𝑟𝑟2

where 𝜉𝜉 is a bandwidth factor, 𝑁𝑁𝑒𝑒 is the number of extrema, and 𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖 is the 𝑖𝑖-th order spectral
moment of the FAS (Boore 2003). The CL pf has been incorporated into most RVT procedures
in engineering seismology (e.g., Boore 2003) and site response (Kottke and Rathje 2008), but it
fails to take into account the fact that the peaks of a narrow-band process are not independent
and often occur in clumps (Vanmarcke 1975).
Vanmarcke (1975) developed a model for the statistical distribution of the peak factor based on a
first-passage problem. This approach allows for the clumping of peaks to be taken into account.
The complementary cumulative distribution function of the peak factor from Vanmarcke (1975)
is written as:

1.2 𝑏𝑏�𝜋𝜋/2 2 /2
𝑃𝑃(𝑝𝑝𝑓𝑓 > 𝑏𝑏) = [1 − exp(− 𝑏𝑏 2 ⁄2)] ∙ exp[(−𝑁𝑁𝑧𝑧 �1 − 𝑒𝑒 −𝛿𝛿 � /�𝑒𝑒 𝑏𝑏 − 1�] (4)

1 𝑟𝑟
𝑁𝑁𝑧𝑧 = 𝜋𝜋 �𝑟𝑟2 𝐷𝐷𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑟 (5)
0

where 𝛿𝛿 is a bandwidth factor, which is different than the bandwidth factor used by CL, and 𝑁𝑁𝑧𝑧
is the number of zero-crossings. The expected value of the Vanmarcke pf can be obtained by
differentiating Equation 4 to obtain the probability density function (pdf) and integrating the pdf
over all values of pf. The Vanmarcke and CL bandwidth factors are defined as (Cartwright and
Longuet-Higgins 1956, Boore 2003, Vanmarcke 1970):
𝑟𝑟2 𝑁𝑁
𝜉𝜉 = = 𝑁𝑁𝑧𝑧 (6)
�𝑟𝑟0 𝑟𝑟4 𝑒𝑒

𝑟𝑟1 2
𝛿𝛿 = �1 − (7)
𝑟𝑟0 𝑟𝑟2

where 𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖 is the 𝑖𝑖-th order spectral moment (Boore 2003). Both bandwidth factors range from 0
to 1, yet 𝛿𝛿 approaches 0 for a narrow-band process while 𝜉𝜉 approaches 1.0 for a narrow-band
process. When computing a response spectrum in RVT site response analysis, peak factor
models should be used with appropriate 𝐷𝐷𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 models. The 𝐷𝐷𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 model accounts for the fact that
the duration of the oscillator response can be longer than the ground motion duration (Boore and
Joyner, 1984). Available 𝐷𝐷𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 models have been developed empirically by comparing RVT
response spectra and response spectra of stochastically generated acceleration-time histories. As
a result, these models are linked to the peak factor model used in the RVT analysis. Most of the
available 𝐷𝐷𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 models (e.g., Boore and Thompson 2012, BT12) were developed using the CL pf.
However, Boore and Thompson (2015, BT15) recently developed a 𝐷𝐷𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 model using the
Vanmarcke pf.

Because the bandwidth factors 𝜉𝜉 and 𝛿𝛿 are defined differently and cannot be uniquely related, it
is not possible to systematically compare the CL and Vanmarcke peak factors without
prescribing the frequency content of the signal. Towards this end, the FAS for an earthquake
motion with a M 6.5 and R 20 km is defined using a theoretical seismological model (Brune
1970, 1971) for conditions in Central and Eastern North America (CENA). The FAS and its
oscillator response for an oscillator frequency of 5 Hz and 5% damping are shown in Figure 1a.
For the rock FAS 𝜉𝜉 and 𝛿𝛿 are 0.475 and 0.704, respectively, indicating a relatively broad-band
motion. For the oscillator FAS, 𝜉𝜉 becomes larger ( 𝜉𝜉 = 0.854) and 𝛿𝛿 smaller ( 𝛿𝛿 = 0.242),
indicating that the oscillator response is a more narrow-band process than the rock motion.
Figure 1b shows the expected values of the CL pf and Vanmarcke pf for both motions as a
function of 𝑁𝑁𝑧𝑧 . For the broad-band rock motion the CL and Vanmarcke pf yield similar values,
yet for the narrow-band oscillator motion the CL pf is generally about 10% larger than the
Vanmarcke pf. This comparison shows that for narrow-band processes, such as the oscillator
response of earthquake motions represented by a response spectrum, the Vanmarcke (1975)
predicts a smaller peak factor than CL, because it accounts for the dependence/clumping between
peaks. This effect will be magnified for surface ground motions, and thus using the Vanmarcke
pf will influence predicted site amplification from RVT.

Figure 1. Comparison of CL and Vanmarcke peak factors for a M = 6.5, R = 20 km earthquake

Analyses Performed

Linear site response analyses using both the TS and RVT approach are conducted for a range of
site conditions and earthquake magnitudes. Hypothetical sites similar to those used by Kottke
and Rathje (2013) are used. Each site is composed of a single layer soil deposit and an
underlying rock half-space. The shear wave velocity and the unit weight for the soil layer are
400 m/s and 18 kN/m3, and for the rock layer they are 3,000 m/s and 22 kN/m3. The damping
ratio for both layers is 1%. Sites 100 m and 316 m thick are used to show the influence of the
natural site frequency. The corresponding first mode site frequencies are 1.0 Hz and 0.32 Hz,
respectively.

The input motions for both the RVT and TS site response analyses are computed using the
program SMSIM (Boore 2005). A fixed distance of 20 km and three magnitudes, M 5, M 6.5,
and M 8, are considered. The input motions for RVT analyses are Fourier amplitude spectra,
generated using a single corner frequency source spectrum and seismological source theory
(Boore 2003), and ground motion duration, derived from Boore and Thompson (2015). The
important seismological parameters describing the shape of the FAS include the stress drop (∆σ)
and site diminution ( κ ), values of which are shown in Figure 2. These values represent
conditions for CENA based on the most recent recommendations of Boore (2015). For each
magnitude, the input for the TS analyses is a suite of 100 time series generated using stochastic
simulation (Boore 1983) based on the same Brune FAS as the RVT calculations. As a result, the
arithmetic mean of the FAS of the time series matches the FAS used in the RVT analysis. The
Brune FAS and the 𝐷𝐷𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑟 used for all three magnitude events are shown in Figure 2. The corner
frequencies are 1.8 Hz, 0.33 Hz, and 0.06 Hz for the M 5.0, 6.5, 8.0 events, respectively.
 Figure 2. Input FAS and ground motion durations for M 5, M 6.5, and M 8 earthquakes

Site Amplification Results

The site response results are shown in terms of the amplification factor (AF), defined as the ratio
of the surface spectral acceleration to the rock spectral acceleration. For the TS analyses the
median of the 100 input time series is shown. Figures 3 shows the TS and RVT site
amplification for the two sites subjected to the M 6.5 event. For each site and each motion, the
AF peaks at the natural frequencies of the site, but the RVT results using the CL pf are generally
larger than the TS results at the modal frequencies. The RVT analyses using the Vanmarcke pf
agree well with the TS results, but the agreement is site dependent. For the 100-m thick site, the
AF using the Vanmarcke pf agrees very well with the TS result at the first mode. At the second
mode, the result from the Vanmarcke pf is larger than the TS result, but slightly smaller than the
results from the CL pf. At higher modes, very little or even no improvement is observed when
using the Vanmarcke pf, although the difference between RVT and TS is relatively small here.
For the 316-m thick site, the AF using the Vanmarcke pf shows improvement by about 50% at
the first and second modes relative to the CL pf, but there is little improvement at higher modes.
Although the level of improvement for the first two modes are different for the two sites, the
results in Figure 3 show that the Vanmarcke pf is effective in reducing the over-prediction in site
amplification from RVT analysis. This improvement is due to the fact that Vanmarcke pf
considers the narrow-band characteristic of the oscillator response at the modes. At the first few
modes, the bandwidth factor 𝛿𝛿 is as low as 0.1 (e.g., Figures 3c and d) and the Vanmarcke pf is
significantly smaller than the CL pf at these frequencies (Figures 3e and f), thus reducing the site
amplification in the RVT analysis. At the higher modes, the motion is no longer narrow-band, as
indicated by the bandwidth factors, and the Vanmarcke and CL pf provide the same result.

To further investigate the improvement in RVT site response analysis when using the
Vanmarcke pf, the site amplification for the H = 316 m site is calculated for earthquake
magnitudes of 5.0, 6.5, and 8.0. The site response results shown in Figure 4 demonstrate that
earthquake magnitude significantly influences the differences between TS and RVT site response
analyses. For the M 5.0 event (Figure 4a), there is a significant difference between the RVT and
TS results, with the RVT analysis predicting an AF almost 70% larger than TS analysis at the
Figure 3. RVT and TS site response results for 100 m and 316 m sites and M 6.5 earthquake

Figure 4. RVT and TS site response results for 316 m sites and M 5, 6.5, and 8 earthquakes
first mode. For the M 6.5 event (Figure 4b), the RVT analysis is about 15% larger than the TS
analysis at the first mode, and for the M 8.0 event (Figure 4c) there is very good agreement
between the RVT and TS analyses. In Figure 4 the RVT amplification values are very similar
for the three different magnitude events (AF ~ 5.0 at the first mode), but the TS amplification
values increase with increasing magnitude (AF ~ 3.0 at the first mode for M 5.0, AF ~ 5.0 at the
first mode for M 8.0).

Earthquake magnitude modifies the input motion in two important ways: the low frequency
content, as characterized by the corner frequency, and the ground motion duration. Considering
the response of several sites with depths between 32 m to 316 m, it appears that RVT becomes
inaccurate when the first mode site frequency is smaller than the corner frequency of the input
motion (i.e., deeper sites subjected to smaller magnitude earthquakes, Figures 3 and 4). To
isolate the effect of duration, analyses were performed with a M 5.0 spectral shape and a longer
duration of 23.1 s (Figure 5). The results in Figure 5 show that the longer duration increases the
AF predicted by TS analysis, but does not affect the RVT amplification. For short duration
motions, the site amplification is smaller for the TS analysis because the forcing function (i.e.,
input motion) ends before the dynamic response of the soil is fully realized. However, the
change in duration does not impact the RVT results appreciably. The amplification from RVT is
not noticeably influenced by duration because: (1) RVT assumes a stationary signal and thus a
steady state response, no matter the duration, when it computes 𝑎𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 , and (2) the same duration
is used to compute the rock response spectrum and surface response spectrum.

Figure 5. Effect of duration on site amplification for a M 5 earthquake

Conclusions

Accurately predicting earthquake motions and earthquake response using RVT requires an
accurate model for the peak factor. The Vanmarcke (1975) peak factor model is superior to the
Cartwright and Longuet-Higgins (1956) peak factor model because it considers the dependence
between peaks in a signal, and thus more accurately captures the peak response of narrow-band
processes. Comparisons between TS and RVT site response analyses confirm that the
Vanmarcke (1975) peak factor model provides more accurate estimates of site amplification than
the Cartwright and Longuet-Higgins (1956) peak factor model. However, the RVT results using
the Vanmarcke (1975) peak factor are accurate only for some cases; specifically, the approach is
accurate when the first mode site frequency is larger than the corner frequency of the input
motion. For cases in which the first mode site frequency is smaller than the corner frequency of
the input motion (e.g., deeper sites and smaller magnitude earthquakes), further refinements to
the Vanmarcke (1975) peak factor model are necessary.

The work presented here involved only linear elastic site response analyses of sites with uniform
shear wave velocity. Further work is needed to investigate sites with velocities that vary with
depth and to analyze sites as equivalent-linear. When equivalent-linear analysis is performed,
RVT is also used to predict the peak shear strain to define the strain-compatible properties, and
thus the accuracy of the RVT strain computation requires investigation.

Acknowledgments

Financial support was provided by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission under grant NRC-
04-09-134, and through a gift from Pacific Gas & Electric Co. This support is gratefully
acknowledged.

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