SAS 402: DISASTERS AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT

UNDERSTANDING DISASTERS
Terms and Concepts
(1) Before discussing details in disaster management, preparedness and mitigation, it is important
to explain the various terminologies used in disaster management for common understanding.
(2) Researchers and practitioners do not use these terms consistently and many definitions are
academic and hence overelaborated.
Hazard/Disaster terminology
These are terms concerning the nature and elements of disasters. These terminologies include:
hazards, vulnerability, risks, disaster risk reduction, emergency and disaster itself.
Disaster management terminology: These are terms for different components of disaster
management cycle and they include: disaster management, disaster preparedness, disaster
mitigation, prevention, alert, relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction

What is a Hazard?
(1) A potential threat to humans and their welfare. Hazards can be natural (such as
earthquakes and droughts) or induced by human processes (such as industrial accidents).
Some people use the term “environmental hazards”.
(2) A hazard is anything that has the potential of destroying life and property. It is a
dangerous event or circumstance that has the potential to lead to an emergency or
disaster. An extreme natural or human-made phenomenon that may cause physical
damage, economic losses, threaten human life and well-being, if it occurs in an area of
human settlement, agricultural or industrial activity.
(3) A hazard is any element that has the potential to threaten or destroy life and
property.eg Fire, Floods, Earthquakes, and Droughts etc.

What is Vulnerability?
• Is the susceptibility (how prone?) of the individual, community, property, infrastructural
base or the environment to a hazardous event.
• The extent to which a person, group or socio-economic structure is likely to be affected
by a hazard (related to their capacity to anticipate it, cope with it, resist it and recover
from its impact). Some scientists and engineers often use the term in a narrower sense,
referring to physical structures.
Vulnerability is lack of capacity to deal with a potential threat. Caused by
 Lack of information
 lack of resources
 Lack of technology

Reducing Vulnerability: Addressing those long-term factors that inhibit man’s ability to
respond effectively to disaster events. For example, addressing those policies and cultures that
promote: Factors contributing to Vulnerability
(1) Poverty
(2) Population growth
(3) Rapid unplanned urbanization
(4) Environmental degradation
 (5) Conflicts
(6) Lack of awareness

Disaster Risk?
The likelihood of a specific hazard occurring and its probable consequences for people and
property.

Relationships Between and amongst Hazard, Vulnerability And Risk:

Formula:
Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk. OR
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability.

What is a Disaster?
 What occurs when a hazard impacts on a section of society (causing death, injury, loss of
property or economic losses) overwhelms that society’s ability to cope without outside
assistance.
 Disaster is a calamitous event, especially one occurring suddenly and causing great loss
of life, damage, or hardship, as flood, airplane crash, or business failure”.
From “everyday use of disasters”, a “disaster’ is normally defined as damage and disruption
that exceeds the affected society’s capacity to cope.

The EM-DAT database managed by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
(CRED), the most authoritative sources of data on disasters' impact worldwide, requires at least
one of the following four criteria to be met for an event to be recorded as a disaster:
• Ten or more people reported killed
• 100 reported affected
• a call for international assistance
• and/or a declaration of a state of emergency
• However, there is a growing body of research that show that the cumulative impact of a
disaster.

John Whittow in his classic book disasters. The anatomy of environmental Hazards, suggested
that,
"A hazard is a perceived natural event which threatens both life and property – a
disaster is the realization of this hazard.”

Note: A disaster is said to occur when a hazard impacts on vulnerability

What is Disaster Management?

• Hazard/Disaster management is a collective term comprising all aspects of planning for
and responding to disasters, including both pre- and post-disaster programmes, projects
and activities, designed to contribute to more effective response and recovery from
adverse events, and to reduce the risks they pose. It may refer to the management of the
risks, vulnerability and consequences.
 • Hazard/Disaster management is an organized analysis, planning, decision-making, and
assignment of available resources to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from
the effects of disasters.
• It includes prevention, mitigation, preparedness, rehabilitation and reconstruction in the
larger conventional disaster management circle. In other words, disaster management
refers to all actions calculated to prevent, prepare for, respond to and help those affected
to recover from effects of disaster.

The Disaster Management Circle

Hazard/Disaster management circle is a diagrammatic presentation of the phases and stages in
disaster management. It is helpful in identifying and explaining steps in disaster management.
Many manuals and training courses present the idea of a disaster ‘circle’ to illustrate where the
different elements of disaster management including relief and recovery link with one another.
Generally, this is an over simplification because the components do not fit together neatly or in
exact sequence in the way shown in most diagrams: there can be substantial overlap

Fig. 1 Disaster Management Cycle

Fig 2 Disaster Management Cycle

The Disaster Management Phases

This is a presentation of disaster management in terms of three broad phases. Before a disaster
occurs, during the disaster and post-disaster phases.

Meaning of Disaster Management

This is the continuous and integrated multi-sectoral, multi-disciplinary process of planning and
implementing measures aimed at:
• Preventing or reducing the risk to hazards
• Mitigating the severity of hazards when they impact on vulnerability
• Emergency preparedness
• A rapid and effective response to disasters and
• Post- disaster recovery and rehabilitation
All these can be located in the conventional disaster circle as illustrated below
 PREPAREDNESS
MITIGATION

PREVENTION ZONE

RECONSTRUCTION

RECOVERY ZONE

REHABILITATION RELIEF

Disaster prevention consists of two major phases namely:

1. Mitigation and
2. preparedness
Disaster Preparedness
• These are the measures to ensure the readiness and ability of a society to forecast and
take precautionary measures in advance of an imminent threat and to cope with the
effects of disasters. Appropriate planning and preparedness before a disaster happens are
essential to minimizing the risk and the resulting damages. Disaster Preparedness is a
precautionary measure taken in advance of an imminent threat to help people and
institutions respond to and cope with the effects of a disaster. Preparedness includes
planning, public education, and training potential service providers.
• It includes assessing the risk prior to a disaster and legal ramifications following a
disaster. Preparedness before a disaster situation is key to minimizing the damages and
losses.
Preparedness, implies
• Preparing people to meet the challenges of a disaster.
• Disasters are bound to occur no matter the mitigation measures.
• Preparedness will involve early warning and (preparing the people mentally)
• Institutional management policies (having organizations and structures in place)
Disaster Mitigation
• Measurers taken to minimize the destructive effects of hazards, and strengthen existing
capacities of people to resist the potential impact of a hazard; mitigation involves
recognizing vulnerabilities and improving local resilience. Hazards like floods, pests and
droughts do not make a disaster on their own. It is the population’s inability to cope with
hazards that precipitate the disaster. Mitigation measures will aim at increasing the
populations’ ability to cope with the disasters most likely to affect them.
• Mitigation is a phase of hope
• Mitigation involves those efforts whose aim is to stop or lessen the disaster effects.

This can be done in two ways:

• By increasing capacities to reduce vulnerability to disaster
• Increasing capacities to cope with disasters, should they occur.

Disaster Recovery
Disaster recovery consists of three main phases:
• Relief
• Rehabilitation
• Reconstruction
Relief
Relief is immediately after the disaster and its aim is the immediate and basic needs such as;
• Food
• Clothing
• Medical care
• Emotional support
• Security.
• Search and rescue
Rehabilitation
The aim is to restore the basic services necessary for the affected to return to pre-disaster
condition. For example, enabling the community and the individuals to
• Start businesses
• Move freely
• Communicate and recover social networks
Reconstruction
New modes of organizing the community and reducing its vulnerability. For example;
• Administrative reforms
• Altering systems of livelihood
• Enhancing community participation in planning and administration.

Disaster Management Approach

The Main Approaches to Disaster Management

There are various approaches to disaster management including traditional and modern that are
employed by various organizations. Two main ones are the (1) “Disaster Management Cycle
Approach” and (2) “Expand and Contract Approach”
Disaster Management Cycle Approach
• This approach borrows from the Development Project Management Cycle Approach with
one step following the other. Many manuals and training courses present the idea of a
disaster “cycle” to illustrate where different elements of disaster management (including
relief and recovery) link with one another. However, this is an over-simplification, as the
components do not fit together neatly or in exact sequence in the way depicted by the
diagram. There can be substantial overlaps between and amongst the different stages.

Expand and Contract Approach

• Usually in a disaster situation, the different strands of activities continue side-by-side,
expanding and contracting as the situation demands, hence the “Expand and Contract
Approach” For example, during a flood disaster, the “relief and response” strand expand
to cope with immediate effects of the disaster. In most disastrous situations, as
stakeholders struggle to cope with the disaster/emergency, the recovery and rehabilitation
strand will expand with an emphasis on mitigation activities to prevent future disasters
from recurring. Various stages in disaster management have strengths, problems and
weaknesses.

Classification of Hazards and Disasters

Hazards and disasters may be classified in a number of ways. Various factors are considered
when categorizing and classifying hazards and disasters into groups for ease of study. It is
important to understand how disasters are classified in order to design better and more
appropriate management, Mitigation and Preparedness programmes and actions. How would you
classify hazards and disasters in Kenya?

Criteria for Classification

The classification of hazards/disasters are based on a wide-range of criteria including: -
(1) Origins of the hazard/disaster. Some hazards are entirely natural in origin while
others have distinctive human element or a combination of natural/human origin. There is
reference to anthropogenic, technological, semi-natural, entirely natural, etc

(2) By hazard type: the simplest is by type of event – according to the causal process –
eg. Meteorological, biological, geological, hydrological, aeolian – wind related hurricane,
tornado etc, Thermal – fire, snow/ice fog/mug

(3) Impact intensity – measured by the number of people affected, killed or displaced.
Impacts vary with culture, wealth, expectations. They are classified as low, medium or
high impact, localized, widespread (covering big or large area).

(4) Impact frequency – useful to classify for given region because it helps emergency
services to forward plan, less likely to occur. The classification then talked of low,
average or high frequency. However, there are several complications with this system
including:
• lack of accurate long-term records on the frequency of hazards for many areas of
the world
 • the more frequent a hazard occurs, the better adapted the local population will be
and it will be less likely to consider this as a hazard.

(5) Geographical distribution – e.g. temperate or tropical climatic hazards, etc.

However, sometimes, areas of similar climate may have entirely different hazards.

(6) Energy level use criteria – less used criteria. The classification here will be low
energy levels, e.g. Tornado or high energy levels e.g hurricane, etc.

I) Natural Hazards/disasters
Natural processes or phenomena occurring in the biosphere that may constitute damaging
event. Natural disasters also called natural hazards can be classified by origin geological,
hydro-meteorological or biological.

(a) Geological Hazards

 Natural earth processes or phenomena in biosphere, which include geological,
neo-tectonic, geophysical, geomorphologic, geotechnical and hydrogeological
nature:
• Earthquakes, tsunamis;
• Volcanic activity and emissions;
• Mass movements i.e. landslides, rockslides, rockfall liquefaction, submarine
slides;
• Subsidence, surface collapse, geological fault activity
(b) Hydro-meteorological hazards
• Natural processes or phenomena of atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic
nature
• Floods, debris and mud flows;
• Tropical cyclones, storm surges, thunder/hailstorms, rain and wind storms,
blizzards and other severe storms;
• Drought, desertification, wildland fires, heat waves, sand or dust storms;
• Drought, desertification, wildland fires, heat waves, sand or dust storms;
• Permafrost, snow avalanches.
(c) Biological hazards
• Processes of organic origin or those conveyed by biological vectors including
exposure to pathogenic micro-organisms, toxins and bio-active substances.
• Outbreaks of epidemic diseases,
• Plant or animal contagious and extensive infestations.

II) Man-made (Technological hazards)

 Danger originating from technological or industrial accidents, dangerous
procedures, infrastructure failures or certain human activities, which may cause
loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or
environmental degradation. Sometimes referred to as anthropogenic hazards.
Some examples:
• Industrial pollution,
• Nuclear and radioactivity, toxic wastes,
 • Dam failures
• Transport, industrial or technological accidents (explosions, fires, spills, airplane
crash, road accidents).
• Deliberate hazards e.g terrorism, etc
III) Environmental degradation
Process induced by human behaviour and activities (sometimes combined with natural hazard),
that damage the natural resource base or adversely alter natural processes or ecosystems.
Potential effects are varied and may contribute to an increase in vulnerability and the frequency
and intensity of natural hazards. Some examples:
a. Land degradation,
b. Deforestation, desertification,
c. Wildland fires, loss of biodiversity, land,
d. Water and air pollution,
e. Climate change, sea level rise, ozone layer depletion.

Categories and Types of Disasters Based on Occurrence

Disasters and emergencies are sometimes grouped into six main categories:
(i)Natural, rapid-onset. These are triggered by natural hazards such as earthquakes, cyclones,
floods, landslides, avalanches, volcanic eruptions and certain types of disease epidemics. They
occur suddenly, often with very little warning.

(ii)Technological, rapid-onset
These are the result of industrial accidents (for example of a chemical or oil spill or a nuclear
accident), major transport accidents, or disruption to other technological systems. They also
occur suddenly, with little warning

Rapid-onset disasters and Slow-onset disasters

These approaches may differ as to whether it’s a rapid-onset or slow-onset disasters Writings on
disasters usually differentiate between rapid-onset events and slow-onset events. The crucial
factor here is said to be the nature of the hazard concerned and the time it takes to occur.

Rapid-onset disasters: are those triggered by hazards that arise suddenly, or whose occurrence
cannot be predicted far in advance. These include earthquakes, cyclones and other windstorms,
landslides and avalanches, wildfires, floods and volcanic eruptions. The warning ranges from
seconds or at best a few minutes in the case of earthquakes and many landslides, to several days
in the case of most storms and floods. In some cases, volcanic eruptions may be preceded by
weeks or months of activity, but predicting volcanoes’ behaviors remains very difficult and
warning time for the eruption itself may be only days or hours. Most disasters are rapid-onset
events.

Slow-onset disasters: are those that take long to occur. For example, droughts hazards take
months or sometimes years for the results of droughts to become disastrous, in the form of severe
water and food shortages and, therefore famine. Pollution of the environment can also be
considered a slow-onset disaster, particularly in cases of growing concentrations of toxic wastes,
which may build up over years. Human activities that degrade the environment and damage
ecosystems – deforestation for instance – also contribute to disasters. Their cumulative impact
may not be felt for decades, although the hazards they cause such as flash-floods and landslides,
may be sudden-onset events. To some extent, the distinction between slow—and rapid-onset
disasters is artificial.

Trends and Dimensions of Disasters

The occurrence and incidences of disasters worldwide, on basis of data available, is on the rise.
Note
Students to review the trends and dimensions of disasters globally and with focus to Africa and
in particular Kenya. As part of their reading assignment, let them review all types of disasters;
natural, environmental, anthropogenic, etc

Link Between Disaster and Development

Disasters and development are closely inter-related. In the past the cause and effect relationship
between disasters and social and economic development was ignored. Development planners
hoped that disasters would not occur and if they did, were most effectively handled by relief
from donor countries and relief organizations.

Development program were not assessed in the context of disasters, neither from the effect of the
disaster on the development program or form the effect of the disaster on the development
program or from the point of whether development programs increased either the likelihood of a
disaster or increased potential damaging effects of a disaster.

Disasters were seen in the context of emergency response - not as a part of long-term
development programming. When a disaster did occur, the response was directed to emergency
needs and cleaning up. Communities under disaster distress were seen as unlikely places to
institute development. The post disaster environment was seen as too turbulent to promote
institutional changes aimed at promoting long-term development.

The growing body of knowledge on the relationships between disasters and development
indicates four basic themes:
(i). Disasters set back development destroying years of development initiatives.
Infrastructure improvement such as transport and utility systems are destroyed by a flood.
(ii). Rebuilding after a disaster provides significant opportunities to initiate development
programs. A self - help housing program to rebuild housing destroyed by an earthquake
teaches new skills, strengthens community pride and leadership and retains development
dollars that otherwise would be exported to large construction companies
(iii). Development programs can increase an area's susceptibility to disasters. A major
increase in livestock development leads to overgrazing. Which contributes to
desertification and increases vulnerability to famine.
(iv). Development programs can be designed to decrease the susceptibility to disasters
and their negative consequences. Housing Projects constructed under building codes
designed to withstand high winds result in less destruction during the next tropical storm.
VULNERABILITY TO DISASTERS

Definitions of Vulnerability to Disasters

Vulnerability is the lack of capacity to cope with a hazard. It is the susceptibility of the
individual, community, property, infrastructural base or the environment to a hazardous event.
The potential to suffer harm or loss, i.e. the degree of loss that can result from the occurrence of
a potentially damaging phenomenon.

Types of Vulnerability

Physical Vulnerability: Nowhere on earth is completely safe from the threat of natural hazards.
But some areas are hazard-prone and therefore more at risk than others. The danger varies from
place to place, reflecting on the various natural or human-made factors of the different areas.

Spatially, areas most vulnerable to hazards include:

• Areas which have previously experienced hazards should logically expect similar hazards
to recur in the future - unless some successful control measures such as engineering
schemes have been adopted.
• Unstable hill slopes prone to landslides – eg. Kisii highlands
• Low-lying floodplains – e.g. The Kano plains, Butalangi
• Coastal Areas prone to flooding
Areas most vulnerable
• Areas known to be geologically active eg. Fault lines, earthquake belts or volcanic zones
(e.g. Mt. Longonot). These pose greater threats than geologically stable sites.
• Technological disaster areas at greatest risk are centered on and around major industrial
areas and cities where most hazardous industrial activity and most people are
concentrated. However, most technological disasters have impacts far beyond the site of
the hazard event. For example, the fallout of radiation from the damaged reactor at
Chernobyl was spread across Western Europe within days. Acid rain falls hundreds of
kilometers downwind from the power stations and cities which are the main emission
sources of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.
Vulnerable infrastructure
• Many highways, major dams and buildings including schools and hospitals are built
across the high-risk fault zone. Predictions of high deaths and damage from the next
major earthquakes have little impacts on the investors, land owners and residents when
the people are aware of the hazard, but economic attractions of the city and our ability to
set risk on one side means little is done about it. Regulations require that new buildings
are able to resist disasters.

Economic Vulnerability
• Economic vulnerability measures the risk of hazards causing losses to economic assets
and processes. Measures are referred to as mild, average or worst. The primary source of
data is information on damage and casualties suffered physical infrastructure, etc. Such
data are useful for emergency planning. The poor are more vulnerable to disasters
• Economic status of the individual, family and society in many ways determine where and
under material conditions they live as well as their capacity to reduce their vulnerability
 to potentially disastrous conditions. It determines location and technical vulnerability of a
population. It is necessary to establish data on income levels, family size and other
demographic and socio-economic characteristics of a given population.
Technical (structural) vulnerability: Characteristics of dwellings or buildings
• Living conditions of the people – overcrowded in poorly constructed structures.
• Few structural protections against flooding. Most houses not elevated above the ground
Social vulnerability- It is believed that the following groups are at risk. (a) single parent
families, (2) women, particularly when pregnant and lactating, (c) mentally and physically
handicapped people, (d) children, and (e) the elderly. People living or working in remote areas
also pose special problems. The levels of social cohesion existing within communities.
Educational and information vulnerability
• Relates to level of education and information for disaster preparedness and warnings.
There is need to introduce such programmes in school curriculum. There is also a need to
educate the public about disaster – public awareness. There is need for information about
the risk zones and provide sufficient and information and early warnings. Risk mapping
may exist but no information. Information diffusion in a society is essential. There is also
the risk of lack of economic and social alternatives.
Environmental Vulnerability
• Environmental degradation increases propensity to flooding and landslides. Urbanization
of slopes and hill tops dramatically change fluvial run-off conditions in urban areas,
posing severe problems for lower-lying communities.

Factors Contributing to Vulnerability to Disaster

– Lack of access to resources (materials/economic vulnerability)
– Disintegration of social patterns (social vulnerability)
– Lack of strong national and local institution structures (organizational
vulnerability)
– Lack of access to information and knowledge (educational vulnerability)
– Lack of public awareness (attitudinal vulnerability)
– Limited access to political power and representation (political vulnerability)
– Certain beliefs and customs (Cultural vulnerability)
– Widespread poverty
– High unemployment
– Distributional inequalities
– High population growth
– Lack of strong national and local institutions for dealing with disasters.

Generally, vulnerability is seen as a progression of three stages;

Stage 1. Underlying causes: a deep-rooted set of factors within a society that
together form and maintain vulnerability. They include, poverty, limited
access to power structure and resources, ideologies, economic
systems and general preconditioning factors. These leads to….
Stage 2. Dynamic pressure: a translating process that channels the effects of
negative causes into unsafe conditions: this condition may be due to lack of
basic services or provisions. It may result from series of macro-forces. E.g.
lack of local institutions, education, training, appropriate skills, local
 investment, local markets, press freedom and macro-forces (population
expansion, urbanization, environmental degradation etc.) This leads to
Stage 3. Unsafe conditions: the vulnerable context where people and property are
exposed to the risk of disaster such as fragile physical environment
(dangerous locations, dangerous buildings and infrastructure), fragile or
unstable economy (livelihood is at risk, low income levels) and public action
(e.g. civil disobedience)
Stage 4. Disaster  Vulnerability + Hazard
Hazard are events such as earthquakes, strong or high winds, flooding,
volcanic eruptions, landslides, droughts, war, civil conflict and
technological accidents

Assessment and Analysis of Vulnerability

Vulnerability analysis is the process used to identify vulnerable conditions that are exposed to
natural hazards and can be depicted on maps, just like the hazards either as a single vulnerability
map for each type of hazard or as a multi-hazard vulnerability. Vulnerability assessment provides
details on:
The sectors at risk, e.g., physical buildings, infrastructure, critical facilities, agriculture);
social (vulnerable groups, livelihoods, perception of risk, local institutions, poverty); and
economic (means of production, stocks, incomes, market interruptions),

Importance of vulnerability analysis

Vulnerability analysis results in an understanding of the level of exposure of persons and
property to the various natural hazards identified. It includes physical, economic and social
aspects. Importance of vulnerability analysis has been emphasized, but often ignored. It helps in
developing appropriate disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Better understanding to
environmental and social processes would lead to more appropriate and successful strategies for
disaster mitigation.
What is an Emergency?
Any situation in which the life or well-being of human beings will be threatened unless
immediate and appropriate action is taken, and which demands an extraordinary response and
exceptional measures.
The Prerequisites for an Effective Emergency Response planning –Contingency Plans
• Availability of standby resources (finance, human and material)
• A mechanism for rapid decision making and action.

What is a Contingency Plan?

A forward plan in which
- Scenarios and objectives are agreed,
- Managerial and technical actions defined and
- Potential response systems put in place in order to prevent or better respond to an emergency.

Why Emergency Action Plans?

• To provide all elements at risk with a planned response to emergency situations that will
protect the elements or /and lessen the impact of a disaster on them
 • To pre-plan the coordination of necessary actions by the management, staff, users of the
space and the community members should there be an emergency.
• To identify conditions which could lead to an emergency in a given space
• To provide structures and necessary organization for timely notification of an emergency
and evacuation procedures.
Things to Remember About Contingency Planning
• It is a dynamic process, focused on preparation and flexibility.
• Should be integrated into on-going operational planning activities.
• Should be able to provide useful input to managers, programming staff and emergency
officers.
• Should be an integral part of all agency’s preparedness activities.
Fundamental Components of Emergency Plans- Detecting Emergencies
Potential emergency conditions of each space with human activities need to be developed.
Note that every emergency action plan is:
– Hazard specific – e.g. fire, toxic compressed gasses, terrorism e.t.c.
– Site specific – e.g. fire in a small building, fire in an industry, fire in a home e.t.c.
Reporting Emergencies
• There must be detailed information on how to report emergencies should they occur. For
example,
– Pulling a fire alarm
– Calling 999
Emergency Evacuation Procedures
• Every space where there is a human activity must have emergency escape procedures and
route assignment developed and displayed.
• This should be a schematic (diagram) of the space (e.g. building) layout showing and
describing
– Escape routes
– Where to assemble at a pre-designated safe location
NB.*Special considerations must be given for evacuation of handicapped individuals.

Employees Conducting Critical Functions

• Employees must be designated and properly trained to carry out those critical processes
and operations during emergencies e.g. Switching off power, Clearing escape routes,
Giving directions e.t.c.
Accounting For persons
There should be a system of accounting for all persons after emergency evacuation e.g. a roll call
at the designated safe area
Contact Persons for Information about Emergency Plan
• The plan should list the names, titles, department and phone number of individuals who
may be contacted for information about the plan.
Steps in planning
 Situation assessment
 Objective setting
 Setting the scope (specific activities under each objective
implementation options)
 Implementation
  Monitoring and evaluation;
 Adjustment of objectives

RISK IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Meaning of Risk
 The likelihood of a specific hazard occurring and its probable consequences for people,
property and environment
 Exposure or chance of loss of lives, persons injured, property damaged and economic
activity disrupted
 Probability that a disaster will occur or impact vulnerability
Expressed as high risk, average risk, low risk or acceptable risk indicating the degree of
probability.
Perceptions of Risk
• Perception is the Interpretation of risk. It shapes coping with hazards, Influence
mitigation and, Influence decision-making on land use and resource use.
Threshold of risk perception
• Complete ignorance
• Growing awareness
• Complete intolerance of hazardous environments
Specific Perceptions of Risk
• As an act of God
• Interaction between human, use and natural environment
• Denial of risk existence
Factors Influencing Perceptions of Risks
• Demographic and socio-economic factors
• Experience of past hazards
• Geographic location
Risk Assessment
• Risk assessment is quantitative evaluation to determine facts, numbers, amounts etc.
• It includes elements relevant to understanding hazards and their effects on specific
environments
• Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk.
Determining Risk
• The Hazard occurrence probability
• The elements at risk
• The vulnerability of the elements
Risk Reduction
• A combination of reducing threats and severity of hazards
• Reducing vulnerability
• Improving the protection of elements at risk
Risk Management
• Management of risk is all about anticipating what might happen in the future and
putting plans in place to minimize the undesirable outcomes and maximize the desirable
ones.
Standard for managing risks – A formal process of managing risk, involve the following
elements:
 1) Establish the Context; political environment; social environment; economic/financial
environment; cultural environment; technological environment; and legal environment.
2) Identify Risks;
3) Analyze Risks;
4) Evaluate and Prioritize Risks;
5) Mitigate or Treat Risks; Is the level of risk acceptable? If not, can we totally reduce or
eliminate the risk by making use of our own resources? If we cannot reduce the risk on
our own, can we transfer the risk/(e.g. insurance), If we cannot transfer the risk, can we
implement certain treatment options to reduce its possible impact?
6) Monitor and Review; and
7) Communicate and Consult.
Risk Reduction Menu
Tools and methods for risk reduction
• Societal measures
• Physical planning measures
• Economic measures
• Engineering and construction measures

DIASTERS AND DISATER MANAGEMENT

It is everyone’s responsibility.
DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION
Prevention and mitigation focus on minimizing the destructive and disruptive effects of a hazard
so as to lessen the likelihood and the impacts:
• Reduction of damages and loss of lives and property
• Generation of data
• Develop legal framework
• Develop early warning systems
• Facilitate capacity building
• Improve research
• Change at the level of Government for effective disaster prevention and mitigation
transformation into a political and economic problem
• Disaster be viewed as an integral part of any development planning framework and multi-
sectoral not as isolated sector. The government be convinced that investment in disaster
management will bring accountable and tangible development benefits
• Disaster management to take into consideration the livelihood patterns and resources

NGOs

INDIVIDUALS
STATE
Finance
The greatest concern to-date is how the disaster management can be made possible with
minimum financial constraints.
• Convincing funding agencies
• Hazard and vulnerability information is not sufficient
• Raising funds from the public for staff support and other logistics has proved to be an up-
hill task.
• Competition-the tendency to privatize humanitarian assistance has led to an increase of
voluntary aid agencies which are now competing with each other for funds
• Level of expenditure-The problem of determining the level of expenditure adequate to
meet the needs of those affected. This is due to lack of a clear impact assessment as most
of the assistance is hurried.
• Political influence-it is now clear that political considerations guiding government
decisions on disaster management do have an effect on operations e.g. distribution of
humanitarian assistance, rendering it insufficient in many cases.
General shortcomings
1. Vastness of potential funding channels
2. Insufficient resources to meet the global humanitarian needs.
3. Short-term donor commitments.
Suggested Solutions
1 Maintain core competence of humanitarian assistance.
2 There should be up-front funding to the agencies providing assistance.
Materials Stand by and Logistical Arrangements.
1.The stockpiling of food and materials and
2. Arrangements for the rapid deployment and on-going delivery of materials and personnel.
By logistical support we mean those arrangements for-
 Road haulage
 Shipping
 Storage or and
 Airlift
Logistical support is important because;
 It contains the long-term costs of field operations.
 It facilitates timely delivery of goods and services
 It facilitates communication

Disaster Legislation:
Meaning and Aims
• To establish by law a disaster management body/board.
This will aim at:
• Having an institutional structure and institutional linkages with a formal system of
disaster management.
• Having necessary support for operations e.g. preparedness plan or strategy.
Key Areas to Be Considered
• Political consensus. – To minimize conflict in disaster management.
 • Focal point. – Identifying the key agency with authority and resources to coordinate
disaster management activities.
• Links between policy and operations- Ensuring that the policy formulation body and the
implementing agencies are closely linked.
• The scope of disaster planning. – To draw a distinction between pro-active and reactive
approaches to disaster management.
Policy Scope
• Acceptance and importance of national assistance. (issue of welfare)
• Laws regarding the authority delegated to the involved institutions (who is responsible
for what?)
• Allocation of national resources to disaster management.
• Objectives and standards of operations.
• Procedures for including the use of other agencies e.g. the military.

National Policy on Disaster Management Outline

Policy Elements
These include a wide spectrum of activities which will have to be effectively coordinated.
Emphasis is placed on overall development as a measure to enhance the capacity of the society to
withstand adverse effects of disasters e.g poverty reduction.
 Preparedness – Precautionary measures taken in advance to help people and institutions
respond to and cope with the effects of a disaster.
 Prevention – Measures undertaken to eliminate the occurrence of a disaster aimed at
increasing the populations’ ability to cope with disaster.
 Mitigation – Measures aimed at increasing the populations’ ability to cope with
disasters.
 Training – Capacity building to focus on all areas of Disaster Management.
 Early Warning – EW information on impending disaster.
 Response – Interventions taken prior to and following a disaster impact
 Recovery – This entails programmes designed to help communities return to normalcy.

Linkages
The policy does not operate in vacuum. It is linked to other national programmes and
activities.
• Existing policies (Development Plan, PRSP, HIV/AIDS Policy, Economic Recovery
strategy for wealth and employment creation)
• Existing legislation (Kenya Red Cross, Water, Petroleum, Explosive Acts). About 35
Acts are recognized by the Disaster Management Policy.
• International Treaties and Agreements that Kenya is a signatory are also recognized. The
policy will operate in tandem with their provisions.
Lessons Learnt
 Need for coordination
 Early Warning /Planning through various disasters
 Long term funding has occurred in Kenya and
 Flexibility elsewhere.
 Community participation
Institutional Framework
Establishing framework to handle disaster related activities i.e. National Disaster
Management Agency (NADIMA).
Membership
• Key Ministries
• Universities and Research Institutes
• Local Authorities
• Private Sector
• NGOs
• Judicial Organizations
Secretariat with an Initial 3 Departments
 Finance and Administration
 Planning Research
 Disaster Response and Recovery

Resource Mobilization and Management

• Disaster management issues will be integrated into various development initiatives.
• Disaster Trust Funds- This will be established by the Ministry of Finance and managed
by NADIMA.
• District Contingency Funds-District will be expected to man contingency funds. The
initial funds will come from NADIMA.
• International Support- The support from the International Community is fully recognized
and this will be encouraged and fostered.
Monitoring and Evaluation
The policy paper provides for a monitoring and evaluation component which includes:
• Tracking down activities undertaken
• Measuring progress towards planned objectives
• Providing feedback to all stakeholders
• Assessing the impact of disaster management programmes on the population, economy
and the environment.

CAPACITY BUILDING IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT

WHAT IS CAPACITY BUILDING?

Capacity building refers to the development, fostering and support of resources and
relationships for monitoring, prevention and management of a phenomenon or phenomena at
individual, organizational, inter-organizational and systems levels.

The contemporary view of capacity-building goes beyond the conventional perception of

training. The central concerns of management – to manage change, to resolve conflict, to
manage institutional pluralism, to enhance coordination, to require a broad and holistic view of
capacity development. the definition covers both institutional and community-based capacity
building. one of the key requirements in this regard is to recognize that the social whole is more
than the sum of its individual components.” Massey University, New Zealand
DISASTER EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
Definitions of Early Warning
Early warning can be defined as the provision of timely and effective information through
identified institutions that allow individuals, groups, communities and institutions at risk of
disaster, to take necessary action to avoid or reduce their risk and be prepared for effective
response. It is the timely signals of an impending or possible disaster to trigger a response. It is
the notice or signal issued indicating specific precautions to the probability or proximity of a
dangerous event.

The objective of early warning is to empower individuals and communities threatened by natural
or similar hazards, to act in sufficient time so as to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss
of life and damage to property or nearby and fragile environments.

It aims to:
(1) Enable remedial measures to be initiated and to provide more timely and effective
relief including through disaster preparedness actions.

(2) Early warning systems have been discussed in terms of long, medium and short-term
warnings, relating to the lead-time that one may have before the occurrence of a
hazardous event.

(3) It is the process of monitoring situation in communities or areas known to be

vulnerable to slow onset hazards. For example, famines early warning may be reflected in
such indicators as droughts, livestock sales, or changes in economic conditions.

STEPS IN WARNING SYSTEMS

Simply put, early warning process has three inter-related stages:
Evaluation/forecasting (observation and prediction) based on scientific expertise and
advanced technologies (e.g. mathematical modeling, remote sensing). A great deal of
effort and resources has gone into this stage, resulting in significant advances in accuracy
and timeless in some areas of forecasting, notably tropical cyclone forecasts. This is the
scientific and technical dimension of early warning systems.

Forecasting and predictions:

Most warnings of the future hazards are based on forecasting and predictions. Much of
the literature looks at forecasts and predictions rather than warnings, and tends to focus
on scientific and technical features eg weather forecasting – scientific improvement in
information and communications technology such as satellites.
Forecasting
Forecast – depends on the detection and evaluation of an individual event as it evolves
through a sequence and therefore depends various capacities:
• Data collection capacity: including an effective field network, access to remote sensing
data.
• Institutional structure for sharing data and agreeing on the information;
• Physical capacity inclosing two-way communication with the field;
• Human capacity: to collect and interpret data and get the message across.
 Prediction
(b) Prediction is largely based on statistical theory and uses the historical record of past
events to estimate the future probability or recurrence of similar vents. Because results is
based on average probability there is no precise indication of when any particular event
may occur. Prediction tend to be long-term, e.g. Earthquake- specify the location or
magnitude of the event with much precision. Prediction of hazards means assessment of
the intensity of impact caused either a single extreme event or by the whole family of
events affecting a certain locality.
Warning systems

It is the estimate of future events indicating where and when the next occurrence within a
specified time and how much is difficult. Predictions are (1) based on past experiences of
events - past records, monitoring changes in the frequency of small seismic events.
Predict three things about likely events
– Where - place
– When and
– How big it might be.
– Predictions based on observations, then you map hazards prone areas

Evacuations: In most cases, evacuation will be the primary response to warnings. Creation of
escape routes and shelters and resettlement

Warning/dissemination: where forecasting are turned into messages and transmitted by

appropriate agencies as recommendations for action. There has been considerable investment in
this stage as well. In particular, rapid advances in communications technology have greatly
improved the speed with which warning are transmitted. At this stage, early warning acquires
institutional and political characteristics.

Response: whereby warning are tuned into action, such as evacuation. The actors in this process
are more numerous and diverse. They include officials at national and local level, NGOs,
communities and individuals. In this third stage, the institutional and political aspect of early
warning broadens out, and the early and the early- warning process acquire a decision-making
play a crucial part. It has not received as much investment as the first two stages.

Key Elements in Early Warning

• There are three key elements in the success of an early warning system, at any level:
• Forecast must be accurate in predicting the location, time and severity of a hazard event.
• Warning must be disseminated in time for populations at risk to make themselves safe.
• Warning must be communicated to decision-makers and communities in appropriate
ways, based on understanding of their perceptions and needs.
• There have been significant advances in both of the first two areas. However, insufficient
attention has been paid to the third.
General principles
• The UN’s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction in the 1990s highlighted
early warning as a topic for analysis and development. International expert group were
convened to look at different aspect of the topic and make recommendations. These were
summarized in a set of ‘guiding principles’ for effective early warning (a) at national and
local level and (b) at international and regional levels. Ten guiding principles for the
application of early warning at national and local levels.
• Early warning practice needs to be a coherent set to linked operational responsibilities
establish at national and local level of public administration and authority. To be
effective, these early warning systems should themselves be component of abroad
program of a natural hazard mitigation and vulnerability reduction
• Within each country, the sole responsibility for the issuance of early warning for natural
and similar disasters should rest within an agency, or agencies, designated by the
government.
• The decision to act upon receipt of warning information is political in character.
Authoritative decision-makers should be identified and have locally recognized political
responsibility for their decision. Normally, action resulting from warning should be on
previously established disaster management procedure of organization at national and
local level.
Section summary on early warning
Warning system vary greatly in size, structure, management and technological
sophistication, according to the extent of their coverage, the nature of the hazard(s) they
are warning of and the human and materials resources available. But there e are many
issues common to all systems. Large-scale early-warning system requires considerable
resources: people, infrastructure, technology, data and funding.
Short-term warnings could be issued from minutes before hazardous event such as a dam
burst or flash flood, to-hours or days in the event of tornado or cyclone warnings. The
shorter the lead-time, the better prepared a community will need to be to ensure its safety
Capacity for early warning:
Early warning could relate to a number of issues. Firstly, the capacity of the necessary people
involved such as the scientists, meteorological specialists, and hazard monitoring and forecasting
personnel. Secondly, the highly sophisticated equipment that is needed for them to make the
necessary predictions needed in an early warning system.
Communicating early warnings:
The underlying rationale of early warning is the timely and accurate communication of relevant
information about impending risks to vulnerable people before a hazard occurs, thereby enabling
actions to be taken to mitigate potential loss and damage – how do you communicate the
warnings, media to be used, etc. Communication-related issues in the context of early warning
systems have two aspects; the hardware aspect relates to the maintenance of lifelines, i.e. the
necessity to build or strengthen robust hazard-resistant communication systems; the software
aspect relates to the maintenance of relationships, i.e. the need to establish and maintain links
and working relationships among the actors involved in the early warning chain.

The media and early warning

Communication strategies should take into consideration what different media types are
available to them. In most developed areas, the use of mass media to relay information is
 widely used - televisions and radio broadcasts are effectively used to reach large
audiences.

COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT

What is community- based disaster management?
• It occurs when community members take on the responsibility of initiating and sustaining
their own disaster management plans
• It implies the use of locally available resources, community’s full participation in
decision making for planning, organizing, implementing, monitoring and evaluation
• What is meant by ‘community participation’ or ‘community involvement’ or ‘community
mobilization’ or community empowerment?
• Is the process of gearing the community into action
• It's getting the community vision into disaster preparedness and the community voice into
disaster management
• It's ensuring community input into the preparedness plan at every level.
• The community is engaged fully at every stage, to express opinions and concerns.

Rationale
• The community is the first responder. They provide manpower and material needs in the
first 48 hours of disaster.
• There is need to develop a population that is alert, informed, aware and ready.
• It's important to have agreed, coordinated arrangements for disaster prevention,
preparedness, response and recovery.

Advantages of community participation

• Good sources of information on types of hazards, frequency of their occurrence and
severity.
• Creation of disaster awareness and preparedness.
• Establishes a relationship with community.
• Ownership of the preparedness plan.
• Preparedness plan will conform to local values, beliefs, ideals and expectations
• Efficiency and knowledge of alert-warning dissemination.
• Community will give best advice on the system of leadership to adopt
• Knowledge of existing local resources

Objectives of Community Involvement

• To increase the development of broad community- based partnerships focused on dealing
with disasters.
• To increase public awareness of and support for disaster management at local level.
• To increase the capacity of diverse communities to deal with disasters
• To pool local resources for disaster mitigation, preparedness, prevention, response and
recovery
Community Empowerment through participation
Basic principles include:
• People are the primary ingredients of development including disaster management
• We must recognize people’s knowledge and expertise
• The total community is included
• People must feel empowered to control their own destinies
• People’s skills and abilities must be developed through participation
• The role of education and training is recognized

Obstacles to participation
• Power:
• - Governments traditionally designed and controlled programs
• - Limited community input resulted in a lack of buy- in and support
• Community beliefs about organizational autonomy:
• - community knows best and should therefore control, design and set priorities in the
Disaster Management plan
• Responsibility is shared without requisite authority and resources
• Administration:
• - accountability interferes with delegation
• - administrators reserve the right to determine priorities
• - planners and administrators are reluctant to concede their practice
• - local community involvement adds time

Benefits of public participation

• Recognition of local needs and priorities
• Recognition of local knowledge and skills
• More reliable feedback on impact of initiatives
• New insights from the community on the Disaster management plan
• Lower costs in dealing with local organizations
• Better design of program
• Improved utilization of facilities
• Co-operation in new program innovation

NOTE: Possible questions

• Define the concept “community participation”.
• What community-based resources could a community in the hypothetical
floodplain have to fight flood disaster eg health problems in their area?
• Explain specific activities that such a community could undertake to help
control the flood disaster e.g. public health problems.
• What resources can the community generate?
• Describe the benefits of community participation in flood disaster public
health problems.
• What are the constraints, weaknesses of community participation in the said
disaster prone area?