Nawir 

et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 City, Territory

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40410-022-00188-9
and Architecture

RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access

Central government role in road

infrastructure development and economic
growth in the form of future study: the case
of Indonesia
Daud Nawir1*, Muhammad Djaya Bakri1 and Iif Ahmad Syarif1 

Abstract 
Road infrastructure development in a country has been considered an important predictor of economic develop-
ment and prosperity. Hence applying a systematic analysis approach, this study aims to project the future role of the
central government in developing road infrastructure and its significance in the country’s economic growth. The main
data sources were the literature review and expert opinions in the form of self-administrative surveys and interviews.
Besides, the Cross-impact Direct Influence (CDI) matrix was applied to formulate the questionnaire. For the data
analysis purpose, MICMAC analysis and Scenario Wizard software were used. The MICMAC analysis results revealed the
dominant role of 9 important/key variables in developing the Indonesian road infrastructure. Simultaneously 24 posi-
tive states of the important variables what identified via the Scenario-Wizard Method. Findings also depicted stronger
consistency among the four scenarios. Whereas Scenario 1 showed the most ideal 9 key features related to Indonesia’s
road infrastructure developments with a high intensity of concentrating the efforts on planning road infrastructure
development in big cities and use of smart and modern technology. Moreover, presenting a group of constructs for
developing road infrastructure and resultant economic growth in the country, the current study adds value to the
existing literature.
Keywords  Scenario-based planning, Future study, Road infrastructure, Economy growth, Central government role

Introduction decision-making. It further involves various exogenous

For socio-economic development in a country, road constructs like climate change impact, environmental
infrastructure is important to be considered, which pro- costs, social benefits, and tourism attraction benefits
vides access to markets, jobs, and resources (Akpan (An et al. 2021). Simultaneously, in developing countries
and Morimoto 2022). For economies and governments context, it can be a challenge as well as can present a lot
all over the globe, road infrastructure is regarded as a of opportunities. Whereas with proper planning, gov-
key asset (Wagale and Singh 2021). Besides managing ernments can substantially influence the development
these key assets, there is a need for economic brands’ of the country by reducing the poverty level, enhancing
cost–benefit analysis based on effective and efficient resiliency, increasing household income, better health
facilities, and education facilities, and enhancing market
knowledge among investors (Schweikert et al. 2014).
*Correspondence: daudnawir@gmail.com
1
Moreover, being a critical factor, climate change is
Study Program of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas
Borneo Tarakan, Tarakan, Indonesia
anticipated to affect the emerging nations’ existing and
projected infrastructure more (Streletskiy et  al. 2019).
Research also shows that when toll roads are constructed,

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Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 2 of 12

the overall region’s economic growth is affected (Mejía road infrastructure development in Indonesia (Mantoro
et  al. 2020). For instance, while constructing the toll 2021), which the current study tried to explore in detail
roads, China spurred its economy, bringing valuable using the scenario-based planning methodology.
advances in remote areas and leveling the development Moreover, the current study utilizes a scenario-based
system all over the country by exploiting the economic planning methodology to project the central govern-
capacity (Meijer et al. 2018). Whereas other than climate ment’s role in road infrastructure development. It is a
changes and toll roads, researchers also highlighted the strategic planning method that helps managers and
need to explore other factors influencing road infra- decision-makers in projecting the future and planning
structure development, especially in emerging countries development strategies (Mai and Smith 2018; Mansoor,
(Abdullah et al. 2021; Mhlanga 2021), which the current Awan, & Paracha, 2021). Simultaneously, scenario-
study aims to explore. based planning operates on two basic principles. In
In addition, sound road infrastructure effectively accordance with the first principle, the organizations’
reduced traffic congestion and social disparities in vari- external environment and internal characteristics con-
ous big cities, including Europe. Hence, road infrastruc- stitute the system. At the same time, the second princi-
ture development is important for economic prosperity ple deals with the several features of a particular system
(Veizaj, Islami, and Maliqari 2021). Research also high- and presents multiple future scenarios and possibili-
lights the significance of the transportation system at ties to constitute a strategic planning process (Ehsan
the national, local, and regional levels for the economic et al. 2019). Moreover, it is based on two phases, (i) to
development of a nation (Khanani et al. 2021). The cen- develop and apply stimulations to check about future
tral government can assess the road infrastructure possibilities and (ii) to assess and apply the manage-
development benefits to attain the required results of rial and decision-making abilities to assess all projected
economic growth in the country (Liu et al. 2021). So, the future scenarios (Norton et al. 2019). Besides, research-
significance of road infrastructure development in eco- ers of infrastructure development applied future plan-
nomic growth is that it efficiently and effectively facili- ning as a systematic method to determine simulations
tates transportation systems in the country (Mohamad for complex adaptive modeling of “road infrastructure
et al., 2021). Besides, multiple factors such as resources, resilience to sea-level rise” (Batouli & Mostafavi 2018)
economic conditions, financing facilities, infrastructure and electronic vehicle charging (Márquez-Fernández
development policies, population growth rate, etc., can et al. 2021).
be considered while developing the road infrastructure However, the application of scenario-based plan-
in a country (Horvat et  al. 2021; Koval et  al. 2021; Liu ning to determine the role of the central government
et al. 2021). Additionally, strategic planning at the central in road infrastructure development for the country’s
government level is important for developing the overall economic growth has not been previously explored.
transportation system to enhance the living standards Besides, researchers asserted the need to explore the fac-
of a community linked with economic development (Du tors impacting road infrastructure development and the
et al. 2021; Mansoor & Paul, 2022). significance of strategic planning by the central govern-
Simultaneously, although various attempts have been ment, particularly in the Indonesian context (Setiawan
made to enhance the transportation infrastructure, in et  al. 2022). Hence, the current study aims to apply the
Indonesia, the transportation infrastructure is still inad- scenario-based future planning methodology to deter-
equate to meet the requirements of an emerging economy mine the key drivers and the extent to which the central
(Mantoro 2021). Furthermore, low economic growth, government can play its role in road infrastructure devel-
hyperinflation, and lack of sustainable national income opment and economic growth of the country, particularly
are among the main reasons for the less developed econ- in the context of Indonesia. Thus, the current study aims
omy in Indonesia (Istanti 2021). There are many road to answer the following important questions;
congestion issues in Indonesian cities, along with the
low national transport network scale (Zadry et  al. 2022). • What key factors and driving forces can be used to
Also, the number of vehicles on the roads is continuously develop and sustain the road infrastructure in Indo-
increasing. The country’s development of sound road nesia?
infrastructure is further projected to lead the national sus- • How road infrastructure development influences the
tainable development. Hence, infrastructure building is economic growth of the country.
very important based on Indonesia’s abundance of natu- • Which scenario-based strategic planning would be
ral reserves (Hardjosoekarto and Lawang 2021; Nugroho the best fit with large-and small-scale central govern-
et  al. 2021). Researchers also highlighted a dire need to ment policies for infrastructure development to sup-
understand the factors influencing the transportation port the economy of Indonesia?
 Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 3 of 12

Research method 1 = weak relations, 2 = indicates moderate relations, and

Cross‑cultural analysis 3 = strong relations.”(Nematpour and Faraji 2019). The
A qualitative cross-impact analysis has been used based technique has some important steps, including collecting
on structural analysis in the current study. To analyze a inventory constructs, describing the relationship among
combination of binary future events, cross-impact analy- those constructs, and determining the key constructs.
sis is considered a powerful tool (Mehta, Bhattacharyya, Moreover, analysis has been carried out according to the
and Pandey, 2022). It is also considered a flexible method- nature of the data utilizing a direct method that ranks the
ology and is mostly used to create and analyze scenarios. constructs by describing their direct impact on the other
It can be united with various methods like multicriteria, constructs. The MDI matrix elements are formalized in
Delphi, fuzzy, etc. (Nematpour and Faraji 2019). Moreo- “a kth row and a kth column.” Hence, generating (Nemat-
ver, to explore a system’s functioning in the future based pour et al. 2021);
on its nature, a diverse set of variables needs to be ana- n n
lyzed to access and systematically describe the associa- IK = MDI (k, j) and Ik =
j=1
MDI (j, k)
j=1
tions among them (Kahnali and Heyrani 2021). Besides, a (1)
well-known method applied to analyze the interrelation-
Moreover, the MICMAC chart presents a two-dimen-
ships among the existing constructs is known as “cross-
sional map with a horizontal and vertical axis represent-
impact analysis” (Nematpour et al. 2021).
ing the dependency and impact, respectively, as shown in
Fig. 1 (Chen 2018; Villacorta et al. 2014).
Structural analysis Furthermore, researchers identified five zones of each
Structure analysis is a variant of the original cross-impact chart, including;
analysis method that considers the direct and indirect Influential/input constructs  These constructs are rec-
associations among the constructs/variables (Weimer- ognized with a stronger influence on other constructs in
Jehle et  al. 2020). It can further be conceptualized as a the future. Hence, they are considered as input drivers are
system composed of interrelated constructs. This sys- determinatives upon which the system depends.
tem further constitutes a network that needs to be ana- Key/intermediate constructs  These constructs are con-
lyzed via interrelationships among the variables utilizing sidered unstable in nature and can be highly influential
interconnection metrics to determine the system’s future and dependent simultaneously.
evaluations (Norton et al. 2019). The association between Dependent/output constructs  These constructs are con-
qualitative and quantitative variables signifies that the sidered highly sensitive to change due to influential and
system must be structurally identified from the func- intermediate constructs based on high dependence and
tional perspective. Besides, one of the most significant low influence.
structural analysis results includes identifying the key Excluded contracts  The variables that do not interfere
variables that control future evolution (Luo et al. 2020). with the system are considered out of the chart based on
their low dependence or influence.
MICMAC method for structural analysis
MICMAC is a structural analysis technique that is a
cross-impact analysis variant (Jasiulewicz-Kaczmarek
et al. 2021). “MICMAC analysis involves the development
of a graph that classifies factors based on driving power
and dependence power and is mostly used to classify the
factors and validate the interpretive structural model fac-
tors in the study to reach their results and conclusions.”
(Villacorta et  al. 2014, p. 17). The expert panel utilizes
this technique to assess key constructs in a system by
analyzing a diverse set of existing constructs in a matrix
of potential indirect influence and a matrix of direct
influence (Villacorta et al. 2014). The impact of every “i”
construct on each “j” construct is shown as the product
of both as “ij” in each cell of the Matrix of Direct Influ-
ence (MDI). These impacts are assigned values varying
from 0 to 3. Where “0 = no relation between constructs, Fig. 1  Influence–dependence chart, adapted from Chen (2018)
Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 4 of 12

Neuter/clustered constructs  These variables lie in the ii. Presenting a set of alternative variants based on
centers and tend to join any group of other constructs. descriptors’ possible states, i.e.,
Hence, systems cannot make certain projections or deci- a. “X1 {xa, xb, xc} …………….……2
sions about such constructs. b. X2 {x, xy, xz} ………​………….…3
c. X3 {xi, xj} Xn {× 1 … xn}”………0.4
iii. Presentation of + 3 strongly promoting influence to
Building scenarios applying cross‑impact balance 3 strongly restricting influence.
“Cross-impact Balance (CIB)” is a modern analysis
applied to multidisciplinary topics and qualitative sys-
tems. CI B’s one of the typical application fields is sce- Sampling procedure
nario wizard. The building and construction of scenarios This study applied MICMAC software and conducted a
often require the progress of many different fields, i.e., cross-impact analysis in Scenario Wizard to extract the
technological, social, economic, political, etc. (Weimer- key factors impacting the development of the transpor-
Jehle et  al. 2020). Simultaneously, to develop scenarios, tation infrastructure in Indonesia. A six-phase process
the know-how of various combinations of satisfactory, is followed in the structure analysis method to con-
neutral, and unfavorable prediction variance is important struct scenarios, including problem analysis, variables
to know about their interrelations. Besides, a peer inter- definition, analysis of the relationships, chart analysis,
action system approach has been utilized in CIB analysis. identification of key constructs, and all probable future
In the beginning, important/key factors are identified, scenarios to develop a system(Chen 2020). This study was
which are conceptualized as “descriptors” assessed via started in July 2021 and was completed in February 2022.
applying the MICMAC technique as understanding the Using a purposive sample (non-probability) methodol-
qualitative system characterization of the descriptors in ogy, a group of experts exhibiting the area of knowledge
the system is important (Jasiulewicz-Kaczmarek et  al. was selected (Devers and Frankel 2000). In accordance
2021). Moreover, Fig.  2 depicts the association between with the researchers, while conducting future projection
various descriptors. It shows that all the network ele- studies applying scenario-based analysis, the number
ments are completely interconnected with the reciprocal of experts can vary from 10 to 100. They can further be
one-sided relationship. Besides, an internally consist- divided into groups of 2 to 3 (Chen 2020; Jasiulewicz-
ent way keeps the balance among the web of influences Kaczmarek et al. 2021). Thus, based on these guidelines,
where a system follows a configuration. we approached 40 management experts, academicians,
The following steps are involved in scenario building administrators, and professionals. However, 29 agreed
via the CIB process; to participate in the study. Therefore, we requested them
to fill out a self-administered questionnaire designed in
i. Use of the MICMAC technique to identify the key a cross-impact analysis matrix. In phase II of the current
constructs, i.e., X1, X2….. Xn. study, the items of the self-administrative questionnaires
were identified.
Moreover, various variables were identified based on
the experts’ highly knowledgeable views regarding the
transportation sector. As the structure analysis of the
current study was based on experts’ opinions, we tried
to highlight the experts who were rich in transporta-
tion infrastructure and economic development knowl-
edge. Moreover, structural analysis was utilized based on
experts’ opinions, and various indicators of the variables
were highlighted in the context transportation system of
Indonesia. Based on the information collected from the
experts, a list of 24 variables was identified and final-
ized, which were later added to the self-administrative
questionnaire. It was also made sure that all the experts
easily understood the conceptualization of each con-
struct. Moreover, these selected 24 variables belong to
six broader fields as macro indicators that greatly influ-
Fig. 2  A simple CIB networks
ence Indonesian transportation infrastructure. A detailed
 Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 5 of 12

description of all five variables and their indicators has Table 2  Matrix of direct influence MDI
been given in Table 1. Indicators Values

Results Matrix’ size 24

Identification of key constructs/variables via cross‑impact Number of iterations 2
analysis Number of zeros 123
To determine the Indonesian role in infrastructure Number of ones 115
development’s key constructs, we collected 37 variables Number of twos 153
via the recent literature review and from professionals, Number of trees 181
academicians, and administrative experts’ opinions via Number of Ps 0
interviews. Out of those 37 constructs, the experts’ panel Total 576
filtered and re-evaluated constructs and placed those in Filtrate rate 64.86%
five main categories. In the next step, all 24 constructs
were adapted in the cross-impact 24 X 24 = 576. Finally,
the domain experts validated and evaluated the structure
These results extracted from cross-impact analysis
analysis based on the MICMAC (Patidar, Soni, and Soni,
utilizing MDI reflect that most of the constructs can
2017). The matrix filtration amount was 64.86, reflect-
significantly improve Indonesian road infrastructure
ing about 64.86% of the variables’ influence on each
development. The results also revealed that a consider-
other. Moreover, out of 529 metrics-based associations,
able number of variables had a strong impact on road
123 (21.35%) depicted “no association,” 115 (19.96%) had
infrastructure development and are the key constructs
“weak associations,” 153 (26.56%) reflected “moderate
in the system. Moreover, as shown in Table  3, the final
associations,” and the remaining 181 (31.42%) had “strong
cross-impact metrics results are presented under the five
associations” among each other (see Table 2).
different categories of the variables, including key, input,

Table 1  Study variables and sub-indicators

Sr. # Macro-variables Sub indicators Labels

1 Socio-cultural Community participation VAR1

Considering state vs. local rules VAR2
Public and stakeholder involvement VAR3
Carrying capacity of the community VAR4
2 Economic Development of action plans VAR5
Budget allocations VAR6
Investments in research and development VAR7
Multidimensional thinking VAR8
Financial and economic facilities VAR9
3 Political and organizational strengthen planning and modeling VAR10
Transportation management VAR11
Master plan for road infrastructure development VAR12
Improve connections VAR13
Attraction for tourists VAR14
4 Laws and regulations Safety and security in the transportation system VAR15
Establish a commission VAR16
Protect trust fund reserves for transportation VAR17
Diesel and filter regulations VAR18
5 Technology and innovation Investments in technology and innovative practices VAR19
Smart growth with innovative procedures VAR20
Maintain a comprehensive transportation database VAR21
6 Infrastructure and spatial Continue transportation agency head coordination VAR22
Continuous investments in the transportation sector VAR23
Addressing transportation/land use conflicts VAR24
Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 6 of 12

Table 3  Direct influence and dependence of constructs

Sr. # Role Variables Items Matrix of direct influence (MDI)
Direct influence Direct
dependence

1 Key VAR1 Community participation 479 343

2 Key VAR5 Development of action plans 651 428
3 Key VAR11 Transportation management 649 411
4 Key VAR12 Master plan for road infrastructure development 644 402
5 Key VAR15 Safety and security in the transportation system 630 398
6 Key VAR19 Investments in technology and innovative practices 621 389
7 Key VAR21 Maintain a comprehensive transportation database 609 379
8 Key VAR3 Addressing transportation/land use conflicts 554 366
9 Key VAR9 Financial and economic facilities 537 320
10 Input VAR3 Public and stakeholder involvement 452 361
11 Input VAR6 Budget allocations 430 345
12 Input VAR7 Investments in research and development 427 339
13 Input VAR8 Multidimensional thinking 409 233
14 Clustered VAR2 Considering state vs. local rules 403 261
15 Clustered VAR10 Strengthen planning and modeling 383 251
16 Clustered VAR13 Improve connections 377 218
17 Dependent VAR4 Carrying capacity of the community 213 389
18 Dependent VAR14 Attraction for tourists 191 372
19 Dependent VAR17 Protect trust fund reserves for transportation 156 234
20 Dependent VAR22 Continue transportation agency head coordination 134 209
21 Dependent VAR 23 Continuous investments in the transportation sector 110 123
22 Excluded VAR16 Establish a commission 43 81
23 Excluded VAR18 Diesel and filter regulations 38 73
24 Excluded VAR20 Smart growth with innovative procedures 27 141

clustered, output, and excluded variables. As shown in head coordination are considered the output constructs.
Table 3, community participation, development of action Simultaneously, establishing the commission, diesel, and
plans, transportation management, the master plan for filter regulations and smart growth with innovative pro-
road infrastructure development, safety and security in cedures were found to be the least impactful for Indone-
the transportation system, investments in technology sian road infrastructure development.
and innovative practices, maintaining a comprehensive
transportation database, and addressing transportation/ Consistent scenarios building via applying CIB
land-use conflicts have been identified as the key con- Once the key variables to develop the Indonesian road
structs playing a vital role in Indonesian road infrastruc- infrastructure using cross-impact analysis were identi-
ture development. Likewise, constructs like public and fied, we assessed the significance of all the factors in
stakeholder involvement, budget allocations, investments different combinations linked with the system in Sce-
in research and development, and multidimensional nario Wizard software. Besides a coded rule in the CIB
thinking are considered input variables are reflecting method boss employed to identify the key variables. We
the importance of utilizing these key factors to enhance found nine key variables impacting the road infrastruc-
the development of the Indonesian road infrastructure. ture development in Indonesia. In the next step, expert
In addition, considering state vs. local rules, strengthen- panel members were approached to analyze the descrip-
ing planning and modeling, improving connections, and tors, and a 24 × 24 matrix was formulated to evaluate the
continuous investments in the transportation sector have Indonesian road infrastructure development and any
been marked as clustered variables. At the same time, projected changes in any descriptor variables. Simulta-
the community’s carrying capacity, budget allocations, neously, forthcoming judgments, interactions, and asso-
attraction for tourists, protection trust fund reserves for ciations of the constructs and structured processes were
transportation, and continued transportation agency utilized to build scenarios. Qualitative variances were
 Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 7 of 12

defined after compiling the key variables (descriptors) the community has been found to be an important fac-
list. This further reflects the characteristics of the key var- tor that facilitates road infrastructure development in a
iables reflecting various states to develop the Indonesian country and leads to economic growth and prosperity at
road infrastructure development. At the same time, these the societal and community levels.
states are considered “strategic drivers” in developing
the road infrastructure in the future at a national level, Discussion
and this can happen at any time in the system. Moreover, The current study applying the CIB identified four con-
Table 4 depicts the study descriptors and their variables, sistent scenarios. The findings presented the significance
categorizing the possible states of all the descriptors. of Scenario 1 as a driving scenario for the development of
In the next step, judgments were made regard- the Indonesian road infrastructure based on its influence
ing descriptor X’s state x’s impact on descriptor Y’s on the country’s economic development. In addition,
state y. This resulted in a “cross-impact matrix in Sce- all 9 key variables identified in this scenario-building
nario Wizard Software” with 9 important/key vari- research are very important and stable for the Indonesian
ables and 24 states impacting the Indonesian road road infrastructure development with a positive nature.
infrastructure development system. In the next step, Besides, scenario 1, with the most stable and influential
around 5,832 probable compounding scenarios (from states, includes D3 (concentrating the efforts on plan-
3 × 2x3 × 3x2 × 2x3 × 3x3x) were extracted out of all prob- ning road infrastructure development in big cities). It
able states. These scenarios we have loaded these in the revealed that when governments pay more attention to
scenario wizard. These further include four with stronger strategic planning for developing the road infrastructure
consistencies, 453 with weak, and 276 with nil consist- in the big cities, it can facilitate individual and business
encies. In addition, results revealed the high occurrence entities far smooth functioning with easy access to their
of four scenarios in the development of the road infra- final destinations. It further presents that road infrastruc-
structure in Indonesia in the future as a forecast to foster ture development is necessary, especially in large, more
economic growth in the country. Furthermore, various populated cities, to help people reach their destinations
categories were assigned to these four consistent scenar- on time and effectively perform their duties with the least
ios based on specific features, as shown in Table 5. distractions and unnecessary delays. These results can be
In addition, scenario 1, as shown in Table  5, reflected related to the previous studies, which presented the sig-
the ideal and desirable conditions and is named the “driv- nificance of road infrastructure development in large cit-
ing scenario.” Scenarios 2 and 3 reflected the intermedi- ies to drive economic prosperity in the country (Lin et al.
ate status with appropriate states. However, scenario 04 2021; Połom 2021).
was critical, reflecting undesirable status with zero pro- In scenario 1, the second most influential state was F1
jections of developing the Indonesian road infrastructure (Use of smart and modern technology). It is a modern
in the future. Simultaneously, the consistency values of era where people rely more on information and commu-
each possible state are presented in Table 6. nication technology to devise smart solutions to real-life
The results reflect the highest consistency value of the problems (Dalle et  al. 2020; Mansoor 2021). Since road
master plan at the national level as a significant meas- infrastructure development is a big economic devel-
ure for road infrastructure development in Indonesia. opment in a nation, realizing modern technologies to
Further, results demonstrate the highest consistency of build roads and keeping this sustainability of the envi-
investment in technology and innovation practices and ronment is of significant importance. Previous research
maintenance of a comprehensive transport database to also reflects the depletion of resources, the use of mul-
develop the road infrastructure in Indonesia. Moreo- tiple resources for road infrastructure development, and
ver, results revealed the significance of safety and secu- its negative impact on environmental issues (Batouli and
rity in the transportation system not only facilitates the Mostafavi 2018; Schweikert et al. 2014). Hence, the gov-
local inhabitants to participate in the country’s economic ernment should pay attention to smart technologies to
growth but also attracts tourists. It is also the state’s build road infrastructure while preserving the resources
responsibility is equally important to develop the road for future developments.
infrastructure in the country that can further facilitate In addition to that, the third leading state that affects
prosperity based on economic growth. The development the development of road infrastructure in Indonesia was
of the action plan has also been found to be an impor- found to be G1 (Application of technological tools to
tant predictor of road infrastructure development in an keep track records of transportation modes and trans-
emerging nation. It further reflects that it is not neces- porters’ history). Keeping the significance of the previ-
sary to only plan about multiple things, but the execu- ous point, the results of the current study revealed that
tion is equally important. Finally, the participation of technological tools could also be applied to track records
Table 4  Possible states of descriptors
Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture

Descriptors Variables

A. Community participation A1. Participation and interest at the societal A2. societal efforts to extract mutual benefits A. No interest of communities in road infrastruc-
level from road infrastructure development in the ture development
country
B. Development of action plans B1. Long-term smart strategic planning B2. Plan the road infrastructure development B3. No strategic planning
(2023) 10:12

while keeping the sustainability elements in

consideration
C. Transportation management C1. Efficient management of the transportation C2. keeping track of the complete traffic load C3. Selective transportation management system
system by utilizing available resources
D. Master plan for road infrastructure develop- D1. Initiation of a megaproject for road infra- D2. identifying key areas with the utmost need D3. concentrating the efforts on planning road
ment structure development for road infrastructure development infrastructure development in big cities
E. Safety and security in the transportation E1. Installation of security cameras at prescribed E2. Strict measures for all travelers, along with E3. Relying on local transporters and traditional
system locations after identification of needs the quality of roads and transportation systems transport system
F. Investments in technology and innovative F1. Use of smart and modern technology F2. Efficient allocation of resources F3. Additional means of road infrastructure
practices development
G. Maintain a comprehensive transportation G1. Application of technological tools to keep G2. record-keeping of long-route transportation G3. Poor- and low-quality database maintenance
database track records of transportation modes and means system
transporters’ history
H. Addressing transportation/land use conflicts H1. identification of the existing transportation H2. clearly defined transportation policies H3. Poorly established transportation system
system in the country and resolving the existing based on power
conflicts
I. Financial and economic facilities I1. Investment of the national government to I2. Investments for enhancement of the road I3. No financial and economic facilities
enhance the quality of roads infrastructure and local transport facilities
Page 8 of 12
 Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 9 of 12

Table 5 More consistent scenarios for developing Indonesian attract tourists, which is a great source of earning for-
road infrastructure eign exchange (Hardjosoekarto and Lawang 2021). These
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 findings further depict that the country’s stronger in
formulating policies and regulating laws are more apt to
A2 A2 A3 A1 develop the road infrastructures to facilitate the public at
B2 B3 B1 B2 a large scale.
C1 C2 C2 C4 Besides, B2 (Plan the road infrastructure development
D3 D3 D3 D2 keeping the sustainability elements into consideration)
E2 E3 E3 E3 and C1 (Efficient management of the transportation sys-
F1 F3 F3 F1 tem by utilizing available resources) are also revealed
G1 G1 G1 G3 as key indicators of road infrastructure development.
H2 H1 H2 H1 These findings further reflect that considering the limited
I2 I2 I3 I2 availability of non-renewable resources, the principles
of sustainability should be implemented while building
the road infrastructure in the country while efficiently
and effectively utilizing the available resources. Moreo-
of the translational modes and transportation histories ver, since developing nations are available with scarce
on existing roads to further project the development of resources and facilities to convert those resources into
strong road infrastructures to cater to the need of exist- end products are limited (Zebra et al. 2021), smart tech-
ing transporters as well as prospected transporters. These nologies should be applied to gain the maximum benefits
results can further be related to the findings of previous from those available resources.
studies that suggested the continuous increase of traf- Finally, results revealed the potential importance of
fic on the roads and the issues of congestion in big cities A2 (societal efforts to extract mutual benefits from road
which can be sorted out by keeping track records of the infrastructure development in the country). It further
transporters and transportation mods (Euchi and Kallel reflects that in addition to the government representa-
2021; Nama et  al. 2021). That can further be utilized by tives’ and official bodies’ efforts to build road infra-
the governments to effectively and efficiently project the structure in the country, the collective efforts at societal
needs of road developments in various areas. levels are important. It further shows the individuals’
Additionally, E2 (Strict measures for all travelers along perceptions of the societal image where they consider
with the quality of roads and transportation systems), H2 themselves a part of this society and try to preserve the
(Clearly defined transportation policies), and I2 (Invest- existing resources and make collective efforts to develop
ments for enhancement of the road infrastructure and society as a whole. For that, they not only financially par-
local transport facilities) were also found as key indica- ticipate in building infrastructures in the local areas but
tors of road infrastructure development in Indonesia. also take the responsibility of protecting existing infra-
These constructs present the significance of laws and structures. All these constructs are positive indicators of
regulations in the country and the level of investments developing road infrastructure in Indonesia and can be
to provide local transport facilities to the masses in the applied in any developing nation.
country. Moreover, the security measures while trave-
ling in the country are deemed important to further

Table 6  Each possible state’ value consistency

Descriptors Possible sates Value
consistency

Master plan for road infrastructure development D3 432

Investments in technology and innovative practices F1 420
Maintain a comprehensive transportation database G1 401
Safety and security in the transportation system E2 374
Financial and economic facilities I2 342
Addressing transportation/land use conflicts H2 325
Development of action plans B2 297
Transportation management C1 271
Community participation A2 233
Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 10 of 12

Conclusion their benefits in infrastructure development in the form

Road infrastructure in a country has been considered an of economic growth and prosperity in the country.
important predictor of the economic growth of the coun- Furthermore, safety and security measures should be
try as well as of the region (Varnavskii 2021). Besides, considered on priority bases to facilitate transporters to
road infrastructure has a wide influence on cultural, travel freely all over Indonesia. Moreover, digital tech-
economic, environmental, political, and social situations nologies at large should be utilized in sustainable ways of
(Setiawan et  al. 2022). Hence, to reap the benefits and constructing war infrastructure, keeping the non-renew-
advantages of a country’s sound and well-managed road able resources preserved for upcoming generations, and
infrastructure, it is very important to strategically plan providing them with the best infrastructure facilities
the road infrastructure development. More specifically, that can further lead to the economic development and
road infrastructure building is of utmost importance in prosperity of the country. There is also a need to provide
the most populated cities for the smooth functioning of high-quality local transport services with ease of access
the travel system, as it facilitates individuals to perform to the workplaces to the masses so that a level of trust
their routine tasks efficiently and effectively without time can be built and individuals’ skills and experiences can
delays to reach various destinations (Meijer et  al. 2018). be utilized in the best possible manner without wastage
Moreover, since the road infrastructure reflects the level of time and procedural delays. Besides, several long-term
of economic development of a country, it further attracts strategies can be devised and implemented to develop
tourists from various places to visit such countries and road infrastructure to enhance the area’s beauty and
becomes the source of earning foreign exchange. ease of traveling to attract tourists to such destinations.
The current study revealed contextual associations The existing roads can be modified for that purpose, and
among 24 road infrastructure development variables facilities should be provided on the roadsides.
through a CIA-based scientific framework. Adding to Moreover, there are certain limitations of the cur-
that, fuzzy MICMAC analysis based on CIA desserts was rent study. For instance, regardless of identifying and
applied to construct an integrated model for evaluating highlighting the associations among the constructs, the
the interactions among numerous road development- “MICMAC and Scenario Wizard analysis” is dependent
oriented variables in the Indonesian infrastructure. Per- upon the expert panel’s knowledge and skills. As a result,
forming a consolidated analysis, 9 key constructs were the findings can be biased based on variable skills and
identified, and all possible scenarios of all these 9 key knowledge of the experts. Hence, it is recommended that
variables were generated via a cross-impact algorithm. future researchers use a multidisciplinary team so that
These variables include a master plan for road infrastruc- diverse results can be found. Additionally, the emphasis
ture development, investment in technology and inno- of this study is on the development side of broad infra-
vative practices, maintaining a comprehensive transport structure to facilitate the transporters and attract tourists
database, safety and security, and transportation system, to such countries with highly developed road infrastruc-
financial-economic facilities, addressing transportation/ ture to facilitate the traveling needs of the individu-
land-use conflicts, development of action plans, trans- als; however, researchers did not focus on the demand.
portation management, community participation. Therefore, future researchers can consider the demand
side for the availability of road infrastructure and modern
means of transportation. Finally, the available facilities,
Implications and Limitations procedures, and policies for infrastructure building and
There are some practical and policy implications for development can be analyzed and compared to identify
developing road infrastructure. Some important factors the shortcomings in the system to make the transporta-
related to the development of the Indonesian road infra- tion system more apt and successful in the country’s eco-
structure are identified by the current study. These fac- nomic development in the future.
tors can further be considered as the main determinants
Acknowledgements
of economic development in the country linked with Not applicable.
infrastructure development. Besides, the results show the
Author contributions
significance of strategic planning for developing roads to
All the authors contributed equally.
attract tourists. It should be prioritized by the combined
effort of the Indonesian Ministry of Infrastructure Devel- Funding
This paper is part of a research report collaboration with funding by Universitas
opment and the Indonesian Ministry of Cultural Herit-
Borneo Tarakan with Grant Number: 003-UBT-01-2021.
age and Tourism. Moreover, as discussed earlier, the key
variables found highly influencing the development of Availability of data and materials
Data will be available on demand.
road infrastructure should be given importance to utilize
 Nawir et al. City, Territory and Architecture (2023) 10:12 Page 11 of 12

Declarations Koval V, Olczak P, Vdovenko N, Boiko O, Matuszewska D, Mikhno I (2021)

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