TYBA SEM VI Book Cognitive Psychology English Version
TYBA SEM VI Book Cognitive Psychology English Version
TYBA SEM VI Book Cognitive Psychology English Version
TYBA
SEMESTER VI (CBCS)
3. Problem Solving - I 31
4. Problem Solving - II 42
5. Decision Making - I 56
6. Decision Making - II 75
7. Reasoning - I 90
8. Reasoning - II 110
Choice Based Credit System (CBCS)
T.Y.B.A. Cognitive Psychology Syllabus To Be
Implemented From 2022-2023
PAPER VII
COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY - PART II
Learning Objectives –
1. To have students build knowledge and understanding of the
fundamental concepts of Cognitive Psychology and the basic
Cognitive processes
2. To create awareness among students about the various applications of
Cognitive processes in everyday life and a foundation to enable
understanding of their applications in other fields - Social,
Educational, Industrial, Abnormal, Counselling, Sports, Health,
Education, and Neuro-Psychology
3. To have students understand the theoretical orientation and
background for the courses on Practicum in Cognitive Processes
4. To create a foundation in students for higher education and a career in
the field of Cognitive Psychology
Semester 6
Cognitive Psychology: Part II (Credits = 4) 4 lectures per week
Unit I. Learning, Forgetting and Imagery
a) Introduction
b) Learning: Encoding, storage and retrieval
c) Forgetting
d) Everyday/ Real world memory
e) Imagery and Concepts
I
Unit II. Problem Solving
a) Introduction
b) Problems and problems types
c) Brief history and background
d) Insight revisited
e) Knowledge rich (expert) problem solving
f) Creative problem solving
II
Books for reference :
Ashcraft, M. H. &. Radvansky, G. A. (2009). Cognition. (5th ed),
Prentice Hall, Pearson education
Francis, G., Neath, I., & VanHorn, D. (2008). Coglab 2.0 on a CD.
Wadsworth Cengage Learning, international student edition
Galotti, K.M. (2014). Cognitive Psychology: In and Out of the
Laboratory. (5th ed.). Sage Publications (Indian reprint 2015)
Goldstein, E. B. (2007). Psychology of sensation and perception.
New Delhi: Cengage learning India, Indian reprint 2008
Matlin, M.W. (2013). Cognitive Psychology, 8thed., international
student version, John Wiley & sons
Reed, S. K. (2004). Cognition: Theory and Applications. (6th ed.),
Wadsworth/ Thomson Learning
Robinson-Riegler, B., & Robinson-Riegler, G. L. (2008).
Cognitive Psychology – Applying the science of the Mind. (2nd ed.).
Pearson Education. New Delhi: Indian edition by Dorling
Kindersley India pvt ltd.
Srinivasan, N., Gupta, A.K., & Pandey, J. (Eds). (2008). Advances
in Cognitive Science. Volume 1, New Delhi, Sage publications
Sternberg, R.J. (2009). Applied Cognitive Psychology: Perceivnig,
Learning, and Remembering. New Delhi: Cengage learning India,
Indian reprint 2009
Solso, R.L., Maclin, O.H., & Maclin, M.K. (2013). Cognitive
Psychology. Pearson education, New Delhi, first Indian reprint
2014
III
1
LEARNING, FORGETTING AND
IMAGERY- I
Unit Structure
1.0 Objectives
1.1 Introduction
1.1.1 Learning
1.2 How Does Classical Conditioning Work?
1.2.1 Stage -1 Before Conditioning:
1.2.2 Stage -2 During Conditioning.
1.2.3 Stage-3 After Conditioning
1.3 Learning Through Operant Conditioning
1.3.1 The Basic Principle of Operant Conditioning Is:
1.4 Types of Behaviours:
1.4.1 Reinforcements in Operant Conditioning
1.4.2 Reinforcement Schedule:
1.4.3 Different Types of Schedules:
1.5 Learning Through the Observation
1.6 Learning: Encoding, Storage and Retrieval
1.7 Level of Processing:
1.8 Encoding Specificity:
1.9 Summary
1.10 Questions
1.11 Reference
1.0 OBJECTIVES
To understand the concept of Learning and learning theories
To understand the process of encoding, storage and retrieval
1
Cognitive Psychology To understand the concept of classical conditioning with experiments
To understand the concept of operant/Instrumental conditioning with
experiments
1.1 INTRODUCTION
As humans, we are all concerned with learning and remembering new
information so that we can apply it when needed. Such as acquiring
concepts while studying and attempting to recall the material in order to
use it in the classroom, in exams, or in everyday life or learning to play
guitar. In everyday life, we frequently struggle to remember passwords
and phone numbers. On the other hand, we all often remember with the
untimely deaths of performers and celebrities.
This entire process is linked to memory. As we will see, many models for
memory have been proposed to explain its strengths and weaknesses.
Memory often works as a room to store the learned information.
1.1.2 Learning:
Psychologists often define learning as any relatively permanent change in
behaviour as a result of practice and experience.
Classical conditioning
Operant conditioning
Social learning
Let’s start by taking a closer look at each theory and then comparing them
to one another.
2
Although the concept of classical conditioning has had a significant Learning, Forgetting
impact on behaviourism, the man who discovered it was not a and Imagery- I
psychologist. During his investigations on the digestive systems of dogs, a
Russian physiologist named Ivan Pavlov discovered the principles of
classical conditioning. Before being fed, the dogs in Pavlov's trials began
to salivate whenever they saw the white coats of his lab assistants.
So, how does classical conditioning explain learning? Learning occurs
when an association is formed between a previously neutral stimulus and a
naturally occurring stimulus, according to classical conditioning
principles. In Pavlov's experiments, for example, he combined the natural
stimulus of food with the sound of a bell. The dogs would naturally
salivate in response to food, but after food was followed by sound of bell
multiple times, the dogs would salivate to the sound of the bell alone.
It is necessary to learn the fundamental concepts of classical conditioning
in order to gain a better understanding of how it works. The formation of a
connection between two stimuli results in a trained response in classical
conditioning. This procedure is divided into three stages.
5
Cognitive Psychology But Operant Conditioning doesn't just take place in experimental settings
while training lab animals. It also plays an important role in everyday
learning. Reinforcement and punishment always take place in natural
settings, as well as in more structured settings like classrooms or therapy
sessions.
The actions that are reinforced are stronger and are more likely to
occur again in the future. If you tell a joke in class and everyone
laughs, you're more likely to joke in a class again. Reinforcement is
any consequence of a behaviour that is a desired outcome for the doer.
6
teacher does not scold you, your behaviour is being negatively Learning, Forgetting
reinforced. Behaviour of doing homework is letting you remove and Imagery- I
unpleasant consequence if teacher scolding.
7
Cognitive Psychology 1.5 LEARNING THROUGH THE OBSERVATION
Albert Bandura believed that not all the types of learnings happen through
the association or reinforcements but some also happen by observation.
He suggested that quite a bit of learning happens through perception and
observation. Kids notice the activities of everyone around them, especially
guardians and kin, and afterward copy these practices. In his notable Bobo
doll experiment, Bandura uncovered how effectively youngsters could be
directed to mirror even adverse activities. Kids who watched a video of a
grown-up thrashing an enormous inflatable doll were then substantially
more likely to duplicate those equivalent activities whenever allowed an
opportunity. On the other had, the group of kids that watched a grown-up
play nicely with the doll, displayed same behaviour themselves.
Bandura noted that not all the learningare supposed to change the
behaviour of an individual. Children learn new things everyday from the
observation. Also, it will be used or appears when it's needed or there is
any motivation for it.
8
we'll look at the aspects that aid or hinder learning, the factors that can Learning, Forgetting
contribute to forgetting, or the inability to recall previously acquired and Imagery- I
information when needed. We will examine how well learned knowledge
or information is retained or not, throughout time spans ranging from a
few minutes to weeks, months, and years. This chapter focuses on how
knowledge is stored in (i.e., learned) and retrieved (i.e., remembered) from
long-term memory, as well as how information might be lost (forgotten)
when it is needed.
There are the main stages that are involved in the process of learning and
remembering (or forgetting) the information.
i. ENCODING
ii. STORAGE
iii. RETRIEVAL.
Encoding:
Encoding involves the initial experience, perceiving and learning the
information. This simply means paying attention to the stimulus and
understanding it.
There are mainly 3 types of encoding methods:
1. Visual (Picture)
2. Acoustic (Sound)
3. Semantic (Meaning)
For example, how do you remember a phone number that you looked up in
the phone book? If you can see it, use visual coding, but if it repeats itself,
it is acoustic (by sound) coding. Semantic encoding is encoding
information by understanding its meaning.
There is evidence that this is the most important coding system in short-
term memory (STM) - the acoustic coding. When a person is presented
with a list of numbers and letters, he tries to keep them in STM by
studying them verbally.
The essay is a verbal process, regardless of whether the list of items is
presented acoustically (someone reads it out loud) or visually (on a sheet
of paper). The most important coding system in long-term memory (LTM)
seems to be semantic coding (coding based on meaning of the stimulus).
However, the iinformation in the LTM can also be optically and
acoustically encoded.
10
c. The Pegword method is similar to the method of loci, but here one Learning, Forgetting
uses a sequence of highly imaginable nouns linked by rhymes to the and Imagery- I
number sequence. standard example is ‘One is a bun, two is a shoe, three
is a tree, four is a door, five is a hive, six is sticks, seven is heaven, eight is
a gate, nine is wine and ten is a hen.’ To recall up to 10 items in sequence,
using the pegword method, you would image the first item interacting with
a bun, the second interacting with a shoe, and so on.
Storage
This has to do with the nature of memory, that is where the information is
stored, how long the memory lasts (duration), how much information can
be stored at any time (capacity), and the type of information stored.Store
information affects how we retrieve it. There has been a large amount of
research on the difference between short-term memory (STM) and long-
term memory (LTM) with this regard.
Miller has given a magical number of 7+/-2 storage capacity of STM.
However, Miller did not specify how much information can be stored in
each location.This is because if we can "chunk" information together, we
can store more information in our short-term memory. Information can
only be stored for a short time in the STM (0-30 seconds). On the other
hand, the capacity of long-term memory (LTM) is considered unlimited
and it lasts for a lifetime.
Retrieval
Recalling the encoded information is called a retrieval. If we can't
remember something, it is probably because we can't get it back. When
asked to retrieve something from memory, the difference between STM
and LTM becomes very clear. STM is stored and retrieved sequentially.
For example, if a group of participants were given a list of words to
remember and then asked to recall the fourth word on the list, the
participants would go through the list in the order they heard it to retrieve
information.
LTM is stored and retrieved by the link or cue. That's why you can
remember what you think if you go back to the room where you first
thought about it. It stores organizational information that may be useful for
research. You can arrange information in sequence (for example,
alphabetically, by size, or by time). Imagine a patient discharged from the
11
Cognitive Psychology hospital whose treatment involves taking different medications at different
times, changing dressings, and exercising. If the doctor gives these
instructions in the order they should be taken during the day (i.e., in
chronological order), it helps the patient to remember them. Some of the
important phenomenon’s with respect to LTM include:
Context effect: it was provided by Godden and Baddeley’s (1975) study of
scuba divers who learned lists either under water or on dry land and were
then tested either 20 feet underwater or on land. It was found that lists
learned under water were better recalled under water than on land and lists
learned on dry land were better recalled on land than under water. Overall,
recall in the same context as study was some 50 per cent better.
State dependent memory effects: It occurs if memory is better when
internal physiological conditions at learning are reinstated at testing.
Mood dependent memory: It means that memory is better when the mood
at learning is reinstated at the time of remembering the learned
information.
1.9 SUMMARY
Learning is defined as a relatively permanent change in behaviour. As
individuals, we are learning almost everywhere; as we observe and attend
to a given information or even our surroundings. learning will take place
as we observe, identify and eventually exercise what we attend to, putting
things into action and if all those actions become habits one can say that
they have learned something new.
Learning is also linked to memory, since whatever an individual observes
in the process of encoding and retrieving is the information in order to put
forththe learned information in to action.
The process of learning might vary from person to person and also
depending on the context, which we can understand through the learning
theories such as
a) Classical conditioning which focuses on learning that occurs based
on conditioning that takes place with a given construct, or simply
put learning from paired association.
b) Operant conditioning also known as instrumental conditioning, which
explains how an individual learns with the help of reinforcements either
positive or negative,
c) Social learning, a theory given by popular social psychologist Albert
Bandura; aims to explain how an individual's environment can bring
change in the behaviour which is primarily due to learning that Bandura
termed as vicarious learning.
12
Memory is an integral part of learning process that occurs through a Learning, Forgetting
threestep process of encoding, storage and retrieval. Encoding is paying and Imagery- I
attention to and understanding the material to be learned, storage is
retaining the material and retrieval is remembering it from storage
whenever needed. Learning will not happen if any of these stages is
disrupted.
Another influential theory of memory which also explains learning is
levels of processing. According to this theory information can be
processed at either shallow, phonemic or semantic level and deeper the
level of encoding better the recall.
1.10 QUESTIONS
1. Explain in detail theories of learning.
2. What are levels of processing?
3. Explain the process of encoding, storage and retrieval
4. Describe reinforcement along with types of schedules
5. What are Mnemonics and its types?
6. What is learning through observation?
1.11 REFERENCES
Gilhooly, K.; Lyddy,F.&Pollick F. (2014). Cognitive Psychology,
McGraw Hill Education.
https://www.google.com/search?q=brook%27s+imagery+task&client
=safari&hl=en-
us&prmd=ismvn&sxsrf=ALiCzsYfZiCnswvYVpazeGdwH1R_VQXU
Q:1651993649
358&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwionZD1q8_3Ah
U1LqYKHWfpDvkQ_AUoAXoECAIQAQ&biw=414&bih=712&dpr
=2#imgrc=1XpQWfzCLrhWWM
https://www.google.com/search?q=mental+scanning+kosslyn&client=
safari&hl=en-
us&prmd=nisv&sxsrf=ALiCzsYqGtJFG5W7lClD80Yl7QbE6BlCQ:1
651993922043&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjZsp
13
Cognitive Psychology P3rM_3AhVRyosBHfbQC5kQ_AUoAnoECAIQAg&biw=414&bih=
712&dpr=2#imgrc=AISt_JIRzcfzrM
https://www.google.com/search?q=mental+scanning+kosslyn&client=
safari&hl=en-
us&prmd=nisv&sxsrf=ALiCzsYqGtJFG5W7lClD80Yl7QbE6BlCQ:1
651993922043&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjZsp
P3rM_3AhVRyosBHfbQC5kQ_AUoAnoECAIQAg&biw=414&bih=
712&dpr=2#imgrc=YMMfy2gOlOSC4M&imgdii=DkF7gOUFf4vuT
M
https://www.google.com/search?q=rat+lever+pressing+experiment+im
ages&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwjVw5v4rM_3AhWug2MGHZ8eDpk
Q2cCegQIABAC&oq=rat+lever+pressing+experiment+images&gs_lc
p=ChJtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1pbWcQAzIECB4QCjoKCCMQ7wMQ
6gIQJzoHCCMQ7wMQJzoICAAQgAQQsQM6BAgAEEM6BwgAE
LEDEEM6CwgAEIAEELEDEIMBOggIABCxAxCDAToFCAAQgA
Q6BggAEAUQHjoGCAAQCBAeOgQIABAYOgQIABAeOgQIABA
NOgQIIRAKUNFDWIyOAWCjjwFoAnAAeACAAaoCiAHIKJIBBj
AuMzMuM5gBAKABAbABBcABAQ&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz
img&ei=RG13YtWREK6HjuMPn724yAk&bih=712&biw=414&clien
t=safari&prmd=nisv&hl=en-
us#imgrc=T5b0Fq1UTPVbIM&imgdii=i6mHuhZEClgRDM
14
2
LEARNING, FORGETTING AND
IMAGERY- II
Unit Structure
2.0 Objectives
2.1 Forgetting
2.1.1 Functional Approaches to Forgetting:
2.2 Everyday/ Real World Memory
2.3 Laboratory Studies
2.4 Field Studies
2.5 Flashbulb Memory
2.6 Eyewitnesses' Testimony
2.7 Imagery and Concepts
2.7.1 Imagery and Visuo- Spatial Process
2.7.2 Image Scanning and Comparing
2.7.3 Critical View of Imagery Research and Theory
2.8 Ambiguity of Images
2.8.1 Neuropsychology /Neuroscience of Imagery
2.9 Summary
2.10 Questions
2.11 References
2.0 OBJECTIVES
To understand the concept of forgetting
To understand the functional approaches to forgetting
To understand the concept of everyday/real world memory
To understand the concepts of Imagery
15
Cognitive Psychology 2.1 FORGETTING
Forgetting refers to failure to retrieve or recall the information which was
available from the memory.
The retrieval failure theory: According to this theory, the main cause
behind forgetting the information is, it never made the information into
a long-term memory properly.
The cue dependent theory of forgetting: Sometimes the information
is actually present in memory, but it cannot be recalled unless some
recovery hint is given. These hints are items present at the time the
actual memory is encrypted. For example, all of a sudden if you pass
through any particular smell of food, it takes you back to your
childhood memories related to that day. The smell is the memory cue
here.
16
3. Think/No-Think (TNT): The TNT model is a relatively new type Learning, Forgetting
of task that reflects situations where a person does not want to regain a and Imagery-II
memory in the face of a strong signal for that memory. For example, if
you get into an auto accident at a traffic light on your way to work or
school, you may not want to remember that event every time you pass
those lights. To date, it has been explored using verbal materials rather
than real-life traumatic stimuli.
17
Cognitive Psychology interest to the elderly, and the focus of their concern seems to be on the
daily functions with which they malfunction.
21
Cognitive Psychology Brooks asked participants to think of a capital "F" and then asked them to
imagine walking clockwise around the letter from a leading corner and
indicating whether each corner was on top or bottom of the letter.
22
results indicate that the visual image uses the visual-spatial notebook Learning, Forgetting
portion of the working memory while the auditory image involves the and Imagery-II
tonal loop component. learning the position of working memory.
Figure 2,3: Map for the scanning task. Participants study the
map before the scanning task
Image source: Google images
23
Cognitive Psychology In a typical experiment, Kosslyn (1973) asked participants to study images
of objects such as an airplane, a submarine, and a clock tower. The
participants were then asked to take a picture of one of the objects and
focus on a part such as the left or the top of the object in the image. Next,
they were asked to look for a specific part such as the flag on the steeple
and indicate when they found that part. The times to report the finding of
the target part of the image varied according to the distance of the target
from the starting point in the image. In this way, the spatially separated
image parts were also separated in the image to a corresponding extent.
These results support the idea that images are like pictures in the head.
Similar results were obtained from a map exploration study (Kosslyn et
al., 1978). Participants first studied a map of a fictional island that
contains seven landmarks. Participants first studied the map, then
imagined the map and were asked to focus on one object and then scan the
map image to find a second named object. The time to report that the
second object was showed a very strong linear correlation (r = 0.97) with
the physical distance between the objects on the map. These results, in
turn, support the view that the images encode relative distances with some
accuracy.
24
processed by the eye of the mind. Similar conclusions can be drawn from Learning, Forgetting
studies on the ability to mentally rotate the images of three-dimensional and Imagery-II
objects as described in the above image.
25
Cognitive Psychology Pylyshyn (1973, 1981, 2002) has always argued for a modal propositional
representations as the basis of visual experience and argued that visual
experience has no real causal role in perceived visual experience, but
rather is what is known as an "epigenetic phenomenon". A practical
analogy is that the hum of a running washing machine is an epigenetic
phenomenon, i.e. a by-product, of the machine's operation, but does not
contribute to its operation. Likewise, Pylyshyn suggests that visual
experience is a by-product of basic cognitive processes, but has no real
functional role.
26
Learning, Forgetting
and Imagery-II
27
Cognitive Psychology Chambers and Reisberg argue that in interpreting an image and shaping an
organism, one is primarily concerned with the face, and for the
interpretation of ducks the face is on the left (beak) and for rabbit's right
face. Similar results showing difficulties in image reinterpretation were
also reported by Pylyshyn (2002). However, under certain circumstances,
when multiple clues and clues are provided, Mast and Kosslyn (2002) find
a visual inversion with a stimulus of looking like a young woman in a
certain way. direction and an old woman if turned 90 degrees outward. It
seems that inverting the image is possible sometimes, but usually very
difficult.
28
2.9 SUMMARY Learning, Forgetting
and Imagery-II
Unlike many other psychological constructs, forgetting as well remains a
common phenomenon in our day-to-day life. It's so natural for individuals
to often forget or experience the feeling where one fails to recall any
information that is in fact, available with us.
Forgetting is caused due to many factors such:
Interference - different memories interfering with one another.
Decay- After a long time passes, a lot of information will be forgotten and
memory will fade.
Failure to recall- As the information never really makes it to the long-term
memory properly.
Even though there are factors that may cause an individual to forget
certain information or memory, there are instances where individuals
forget or try to forget purposely. Such as Retrieval - induced forgetting
(RIF), Directed forgetting & Think/no-think (TNT).
Since, forgetting is also connected with memory one must also take into
consideration the various methods to understand memory such as
flashbulb memory I.e., a vivid memory of a dramatic experience.
Eyewitness memory, is like an episodic memory mostly something that a
person has witnessed.
Lastly, there are concepts which tend to be understood well with the help
of imagery, isn't it easy to simply recall the shape or sound of an object
that you read or thought of like we took an example of “CAT” and the
Brooks Imagery task.
Forgetting, images and perceptions and the regions of the brains are
connected with these tasks and experiments that we have discussed above.
2.10 QUESTIONS
a. What are functional approaches to forgetting
b. Explain the terms “flashbulb” & “eyewitness” with reference to
memory
c. What is the neuroscience behind imagery
d. What is the visuo-spatial process in imagery?
e. What are the factors due to which forgetting takes place?
2.11 REFERENCES
Gilhooly, K.; Lyddy,F.&Pollick F. (2014). Cognitive Psychology,
McGraw Hill Education
Galotti, K.M. (2014). Cognitive Psychology: In and Out of the
Laboratory. (5th ed.). Sage Publications (Indian reprint 2015)
29
Cognitive Psychology Matlin, M.W. (2013). Cognitive Psychology, 8thed., international
student version, John Wiley & sons
https://www.google.com/search?q=brook%27s+imagery+task&client=
safari&hl=en-
us&prmd=ismvn&sxsrf=ALiCzsYfZiCnswvYVpazeGdwH1R_VQXU
Q:1651993649358&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi
onZD1q8_3AhU1LqYKHWfpDvkQ_AUoAXoECAIQAQ&biw=414
&bih=712&dpr=2#imgrc=1XpQWfzCLrhWWM
https://www.google.com/search?q=mental+scanning+kosslyn&client=
safari&hl=en-
us&prmd=nisv&sxsrf=ALiCzsYqGtJFG5W7lClD80Yl7QbE6BlCQ:1
651993922043&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjZsp
P3rM_3AhVRyosBHfbQC5kQ_AUoAnoECAIQAg&biw=414&bih=
712&dpr=2#imgrc=AISt_JIRzcfzrM
https://www.google.com/search?q=mental+scanning+kosslyn&client=
safari&hl=en-
us&prmd=nisv&sxsrf=ALiCzsYqGtJFG5W7lClD80Yl7QbE6BlCQ:1
651993922043&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjZsp
P3rM_3AhVRyosBHfbQC5kQ_AUoAnoECAIQAg&biw=414&bih=
712&dpr=2#imgrc=YMMfy2gOlOSC4M&imgdii=DkF7gOUFf4vuTM
https://www.google.com/search?q=rat+lever+pressing+experiment+im
ages&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwjVw5v4rM_3AhWug2MGHZ8eDpk
Q2cCegQIABAC&oq=rat+lever+pressing+experiment+images&gs_lc
p=ChJtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1pbWcQAzIECB4QCjoKCCMQ7wMQ
6gIQJzoHCCMQ7wMQJzoICAAQgAQQsQM6BAgAEEM6BwgAE
LEDEEM6CwgAEIAEELEDEIMBOggIABCxAxCDAToFCAAQgA
Q6BggAEAUQHjoGCAAQCBAeOgQIABAYOgQIABAeOgQIABA
NOgQIIRAKUNFDWIyOAWCjjwFoAnAAeACAAaoCiAHIKJIBBj
AuMzMuM5gBAKABAbABBcABAQ&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-
img&ei=RG13YtWREK6HjuMPn724yAk&bih=712&biw=414&clien
t=safari&prmd=nisv&hl=en-
us#imgrc=T5b0Fq1UTPVbIM&imgdii=i6mHuhZEClgRDM
30
3
PROBLEM SOLVING - I
Unit Structure
3.0 Objectives
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Creative Process
3.2.1Creativity and Functional Fixedness
3.3 Problem and Problem Types
3.3.1 Problem Types
3.3.2 Advisory Problem
3.3.3 Non-Advisory Problem
3.4 Brief History and Background
3.4.1 Gestalt Psychology
3.5 Information Processing Approach
3.6 Summary
3.7 Questions
3.8 Reference
3.0 OBJECTIVES
To understand the field of cognitive psychology and problem solving
To understand the types of problem solving
To understand the history & background of problem solving
To understand in brief how creativity and thinking are related to
problem solving.
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Broadly speaking psychology is concerned with both humans as well as
animals with regard to their mind and behaviour. Specifically, the branch
of cognitive psychology focuses on the cognition, that is the working of
mind and how it represents with the information that we collect from our
surroundings.
31
Cognitive Psychology In our everyday life we collect a lot of information and use it very well.
But some days are different such as when we encounter circumstances that
are different than usual for example, when we misinterpret certain
information or miscalculate some of our decisions. Various cognitive
functions are used on a day-to-day basis for all of us from thinking,
memory, perception etc. In this chapter we will focus on one of the
cognitive processes called “problem solving”.
Each one of us at some point in our daily life encounters some sort of
problem. We all have confronted some problem, which is naturally not so
easy to solve and also quite complex in nature. An individual might even
think of a few solutions but the difficulty is to choose the most appropriate
solutionthat not only solves the problem but also with less time or
resources.
While studying cognitive psychology and problem solving, we are trying
to answer questions such as what is the mental processing going on while
an individual chooses to solve a problem in the first place, what are the
options they are thinking about? How does an individual process the
various solutions? What kind of mental tactics are used etc.
In our daily lives we face many problems which vary with the degree of
difficulty. In case of some problems we may not think much and
processing is also spontaneous and happens in a fraction of second for
example, taking staircase if you just missed getting inside a lift or catching
another train if you missed your usual one.But the same problems could be
very severe if you have a leg injury. The amount of information
processing will be more and you have to choose your options wisely.
Examining the area of problem solving helps us understand and answer
the questions asked above. Perhaps, you must have noticed that problem
solving is in a way thinking; whether it’s about the actual problem or its
solutions. Also, by answering the questions above we do not gain a
complete explanation on the cognitive structure or process involved in
actual problem solving.
Therefore, going forward we will understand thinking along with problem
solving, nature of problem and types of problems and also look at the
historical background.
Problem is a situation in which you have a goal but do not know how
to achieve it.
Thinking is a process of mental exploration of possible actions and
32
problem. The more the person is creative the more innovative the solutions Problem Solving - I
can be.
With the help of above descriptions, we can see that problems that are well
defined have a structure to them, the characteristics of such a problem
includes the initial state or problem situation, rules/ strategies for solving
the problem and also the goal state also known as the solution to a
problem.For example, a mathematical problem such as “8-2” in which
initial state (the problem statement and other information provided), steps
to solve that problem (mathematical rules) are clearly defined. One also
knows if correct solution has be obtained or not. On the other hand, if a
professor asks you to come up with an exciting theme for college festival,
as there are no defined steps to solve the problem, and even the initial state
isn’t objectively specified (“exciting’ can have multiple interpretations),it
is an example of ill defined problem.
Apart from the above-mentioned categories, problems can also be
classified as advisory and non-advisory problems.
34
3.3.3 Non-Adversaryproblem Problem Solving - I
Unlike the adversary problem, in the case of non-adversary problem we do
not have an opponent which can be called as rational thinker or even
someone who thinks, the opponent here is immobile and is not making
attempts to disturb or trouble the thinking of the solver. Some examples of
advisory problems would be anagram puzzles or even some computer
programs.
35
Cognitive Psychology Further, small- scale problems fit the criteria of a lab study or research as
it requires much less time and it can be studied well with many
participants who just have to spare a few minutes for the response.
36
Along with Max Wertheimer, Wolfgang Köhler & Kurt Koffka are major Problem Solving - I
contributors in the work & research in the field of gestalt psychology.
Wolfgang Köhler’s most popular experiment was with the apes about
insight learning at Island of Tenerife on the Canary Islands.IN his
experiment, Köhler hung some fruits up from the ground, and gave the
four chimpanzees two sticks and three boxes to help them retrieve the
fruits. After trying a few times the apes took some time to think and with a
few trials they used the boxes to climb up and grab the fruit. They used a
popular strategy for problem solving known as insight.
At the beginning of the chapter we discussed how animals use their
problem-solving abilities when it comes to livelihood.The experiments
done by Köhler explain how those apes could get a solution that came to
them suddenly like it happens with insight learning and or with trial-and-
error methods. The results of the experiments suggests that there is a
correlation between the intellect and the development of the brain, which
is quite similar with apes like humans.
37
Cognitive Psychology Let's take an example of anagram to understand how computers and
humans solve problems.
Use the letters “UDYTS” to make a word. Let's try with using last two
letters S and T and try to build a few letters and then see if it fits all the
letters given in the anagram. We could solve this because we are familiar
with the word “STUDY”.Thisshows that we use strategies such as use of
long-term memory, retrieval of memory etc. When solving problems.In
the same way, a computer will access the stored words, earlier used words
from its programme memory to access information and find the correct
answer, which in this case is “STUDY”.
Programs that are similar to human thinking patterns are called as
Simulation, which is different from a common method used by machines
while mimicking the intelligence or thinking of human beings, popularly
known as Artificial Intelligence.
Coming back to information processing in problem solving, lets discuss
some key elements:
Problem space
Which can be defined as an abstract or commonly used graph and line
format to represent the possible state of problem. This simply includes all
the information that we know about the problem.
Problem space has two sub types: State- action space and Goal-subgoal
space
38
Problem Solving - I
Figure 3.1: Sample tree diagram for noughts and cross problem.
Image source: Gilhooly 2014
There are three methods by which state action tree can be searched
systematically:
1. Depth first search: Considering only one move at a time. Although this
is an easy method as it doesn't load heavily on memory, this method
may not always guarantee attainment of goal
2. Breadth first search: This involves considering each possible move at
each stage and adding it to the tree. This is an algorithm move that
always guarantees attainment of goal.
3. Progressive deepening: This method is combination of first two
methods. It considers only limited number of moves in depth, backs it
up then searches for other alternative moves which are then stated in
depth. This continues till all the branches have been searched in
limited depth. If the goal is not attained then the depth level is
deepened.
In a method known as ‘hill climbing’ intermediate states are also stated
and problem solver works towards achieving them before achieving the
final state.
3.6 SUMMARY
Problem solving is thinking oriented towards solving a specific
problem that involves both the construction of answers and the choice
of possible answers. We come across countless problems in our daily
life that make us develop reaction, strategies, select possible responses,
and test responses to solve a problem. For example, try to solve this
problem: a dog has a 6-foot rope tied around his neck and a bowl of
water is 3 feet away. How would the dog get to the pan? Solving this
problem involves generating possible answers (of which there are
few), choosing and testing them, and perhaps discovering the trick of
the problem.
Problems can be classified in different categories such as well-defined
problems (those with clear initial state, goal and steps to achieve the
goals), ill-definedproblems(those with unclear problem space, steps
and goal), adversary problems (involving an opponent that tries to add
obstacles in the process of problem solving) , non-adversary problems
(no opponent involved), etc.
Gestalt psychology and information processing approach are some of
the important perspectives on problem solving. Gestalt Psychology
advocates looking at the problem as a whole made up of
interconnected parts instead of looking at parts separately. The strategy
of insight problem solving comes from this perspective
Information processing model compares human problem solver to a
computer and draws parallels between human cognition and computer
algorithm to solve problems.
40
Problem Solving - I
Problem space is defined as an abstract or commonly used graph and
line format to represent the possible state of problem. It includes two
important types: State action space and Goal-subgoal space
State action space represents changes of the problem in various states
i.e.; initial state – intermediate state – goal state. Series of operations
can be performed to transit from one state into another.
Goal - action pace represents how problem goal can be broken into
parts such as the sub goals and sub- subgoals
3.7 QUESTIONS
1. Explain the phenomenon of functional fixedness with examples.
2. Describe in detail the information processing Approach
3. What is the role of Gestalt school in of thought in problem solving
4. Describe different types of problems
3.8 REFERENCES
Gilhooly, K.; Lyddy,F.& Pollick F. (2014). Cognitive Psychology,
McGraw Hill Education
41
4
PROBLEM SOLVING - II
Unit Structure
4.0 Objectives
4.1 Insight problem solving
4.1.1 Comparing insight and non-insight
4.1.2 Neuroscience approach to insight versus non-insight tasks
4.1.3 Think aloud effects on insight versus non-insight problems
4.2 Recent theories of insight
4.2.1 Representational change:
4.2.2 Progress monitoring:
4.3 Knowledge rich (expert) problem solving:
4.3.1 Knowledge base
4.3.2 Memory base
4.3.3 Problem solving strategy
4.3.4 Speed and accuracy
4.3.5 Metacognition
4.4 Creative problem solving
4.4.1 What is a creative approach?
4.4.2 Divergent Production
4.4.3 Creative theory of Investment
4.4.4 Intrinsic motivation-based creativity
4.4.5 Extrinsic motivation-based creativity
4.5 Summary
4.6 Questions
4.7 Reference
42
4.0 OBJECTIVES Problem Solving - II
Figure 4.1 Ratings of warmth for insight vs. non-insight difficulties. For
algebra, there is a continuous increase in ‘warmth,' whereas for insight
problems, there is a rapid jump in warmth shortly before the solution.
Image source: Gilhooly et al., 2014
Figure 4.3: fMRI results for insight and non-insight problem solving.
45
Cognitive Psychology 4.2 RECENT THEORIES OF INSIGHT
The empirical distinction between insight and non-insight problem solving
appears to be well established based on the findings discussed above.
However, the question of how to theoretically describe insight solving
remains open. Recently, two major approaches have emerged:
representational transformation and progress monitoring, sometimes
known as "the criterion for satisfactory progress theory."
46
the solution that the solution can be expected within a limited mental Problem Solving - II
look-ahead.
Matchstick algebra problems were used to investigate the representational
change theory. An inaccurate Roman numeral equation is presented in
these exercises, and the participant's duty is to move one match to rectify
the equation.
47
Cognitive Psychology restructuring. The theory can be described using the nine-dot issue as an
illustration of how they used their technique.
Traditional explanations for the nine-dot task's difficulty propose a
fixation (set) on the square shape, excluding other possibilities.
Instructions to search outside the square, on the other hand, were shown to
be ineffective (Lung and Dominowski 1985) suggested other ineffective
limitations, such as believing that all lines begin and end with dots.
A different explanation including two important points was proposed by
the progress monitoring theory.
These are (1) the use of a maximisation heuristic, in which each move or
decision is an attempt to make as much progress as possible toward the
goal, and (2) the use of progress monitoring, in which the rate of progress
is constantly assessed, and criterion failure occurs if it is deemed to be too
slow and inefficient. A different tactic could then be pursued.
When applied to the nine-dot task, progress monitoring theory suggests
that (1) the maximisation heuristic would be for each move to cover as
many new dots as possible, and (2) progress monitoring would involve
comparing the rate of progress to the number of dots required to be
covered per line to solve, and criterion failure would occur if no move met
the criterion. A different tactic could then be pursued (e.g. extending
lines).
MacGregor et al. investigated the progress monitoring theory explanation
of the nine-dot task by administering two versions of the problem, version
A and version B, to participants.
Figure 4.3: Nine-dot issue with a twist (version A). A variation of the
nine-dot issue that includes a tip to think outside the box.Participants task
is to connect all the dots using 4 straight lines and without lifting their
hand
Image source: Gilhooly et al., 2014
If 'constraint relaxation' is all that's required to imagine 'beyond the box,'
then participants should perform better on version A than B, because
version A depicts a line that extends beyond the box. If criterion failure is
required, participants will do better on version B because they will be able
48
to cover fewer dots in the next two steps, allowing them to see that they Problem Solving - II
are on the wrong track sooner. According to MacGregor and colleagues ,
just 31% of those given version A were successful, whereas 53% of those
given version B were correct.
Figure 4.4.The nine-dot problem has been tweaked even more (version B).
There's also a suggestion to use the diagonal.
Image source: Gilhooly et al., 2014
More experiments on progress monitoring theory employed coin
manipulation issues like the eight-coin problem shown below, in which
users must move only two coins so that each coin touches exactly three
others.
50
4.3.1 Knowledge base Problem Solving - II
The knowledge bases or schemas of novices and experts differ
significantly. For example, In the mathematical problem solving, the
novices simply lack important knowledge about mathematical principles.
In order to properly understand a topic and solve problems, an individual
must have the necessary schemas. Experts who have received training in a
variety of relevant settings may perform especially well.
4.3.5 Metacognition
Experts are better than novices at monitoring their problem solving. for
example, they appear to be better at judging the difficulty of a problem
and at allocating their time appropriately when solving problems.
51
Cognitive Psychology Furthermore, when they realize they have made a mistake, they can
recover relatively quickly. Experts are unquestionably more skilled at
various stages of problem solving, as well as in monitoring their progress
while working on a problem. Experts, on the other hand, perform poorly
on one metacognitive task. That is, experts, in particular, underestimate
the amount of time that novices will need to solve a problem in the
expert's area of specialisation. In contrast, novices are more accurate in
predicting that the problem will be difficult to solve.
52
4.4.3 Creative theory of Investment Problem Solving - II
Some experts proposed that those who work in the arena of ideas purchase
low and sell high as well. That is, when no one else is interested in the
"investment," they come up with a creative idea. They move on to a new
creative undertaking later, once the idea has gained traction. The famous
shark tank show has shown us several example of an entrepreneur coming
up with least explored idea and making it a big hit
What are the characteristics of these intelligent and creative investors? The
key elements of creativity, according to Sternberg and Lubart investment
theory, are intelligence, knowledge, motivation, a supportive environment,
a suitable thinking style, and an appropriate personality. You'll need all six
of these qualities to work productively. Consider a person who meets five
of the criteria but has a low intellect level. This person is unlikely to
develop anything innovative.
It's worth noting that the investment approach to creativity also
emphasizes issues outside the individual's control. Individuals may have
creative qualities. However, they will not be creative in the workplace if
they do not work in a supportive environment.
The investment hypothesis of creativity is interesting in and of itself,
especially because it stresses the complex criteria for creative success.
Let's look at one of the six requirements now: motivation. As you'll see,
certain types of motivation are more likely to boost creativity than others.
4.4.4 Intrinsic Motivation-Based Creativity
People are more likely to be creative when they are working on a task that
they truly enjoy, according to research. In one study, Ruscio and his co-
authors gave college students a standardized test of intrinsic drive. The
participants were asked to score their interest in three types of activities
:writing, painting, and problem solving.
The students returned to the laboratory a few weeks later, where they were
instructed to complete activities in these three categories.The pupils'
innovative projects were then judged by a panel of experts. The findings
revealed that students who scored high on the standardized exam for
intrinsic motivation were more likely to develop a creative project.
4.4.5 Extrinsic motivation-based creativity
Many studies have shown that when students are working on projects for
external causes, they create less creative output. People's extrinsic
motivation is high when they see an activity as merely a way of receiving
a reward, a good grade, or a positive appraisal. Since their intrinsic
motivation is frequently diminished, as a result, their creativity is likely to
decrease.
When college students were told that their poemswould be judged by a
committee of professional poets, they generated fewer imaginative poetry,
according to representative research. Other studies backup these
conclusions. The same effect is frequently observed in both adults and
children, as well as in both creative and verbal inventiveness.
53
Cognitive Psychology For many years, scholars had held a straightforward viewpoint. intrinsic
motivation is good, while external motivation is bad. You've undoubtedly
spent enough time studying psychology to realize that no conclusion in
our field can be that simple. According to a more extensive examination,
creativity can really be boosted if extrinsic sources supply relevant
information.
Extrinsic motivation, on the other hand, hinders creativity by controlling
and limiting your possibilities. The ramifications of these discoveries for
education and the workplace are significant: Encourage people to work on
projects that they enjoy, and use an external compensation scheme that
does not detract from their creative efforts.
To show what we mean when we say "creative methods to problem
solving," consider the following examples.
Actively developing a wide range of options and identifying the most
intriguing ones to investigate further. Maintaining a cheerful mindset
while being open to many various alternatives. Solving future-oriented
issues that do not yet exist.
Putting time, effort, and talent into moulding, refining, and developing
a wild or highly unconventional notion into a viable solution.
Persistence is a virtue.
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Insight vs non-Insight problem Problem Solving - II
As discussed above a problem that is designed in such a way that it
promotes the “A-ha” feeling which makes you realize the solution, while
you also learn to solve similar problems and the insights become more
frequent due to the past experience. The Non- insight problem on the other
hand, are those problems that are designed in such a way that one nay not
experience insights since, to solve the on-insight problems one must use
some well-defined methods, or look for solutions that come from some
systematic process or knowledge.
We must also take into consideration the neural activity associated with
insights, also factors such as type of problem, innovation or creativity in
solving the problem and the role of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in
creatively solving the problem.
Experts differ from novices in problem solving in several ways such as
they have vast knowledge base, better memory, better meta cognition, etc.
Creative problem-solving approach involves solving problems in novel
and original way. It requires divergent thinking and is often inspired by
intrinsic motivation. Extrinsic motivation may help problem solver not get
discouraged or distract when solving problems.
4.6 QUESTIONS
1. What are insightful and non-insightful problems?
2. Explain the role of creativity in problem solving
3. What is creative theory of investment
4.7 REFERENCES
Gilhooly, K.; Lyddy,F.&Pollick F. (2014). Cognitive Psychology,
McGraw Hill Education
55
5
DECISION MAKING - I
Unit Structure
5.0 Objective
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1What is Decision making?
5.1.2 Introduction to theoretical models of Decision Making
5.2 Expected Value Theory
5.3 Utility and Prospect Theory
5.4 Subjective Probability and Prospect Theory
5.4.1 Framing Effect
5.5 Making Probability Judgements
5.5.1 What is probability?
5.5.2 Heuristics, Mental Shortcuts!
5.5.3 Availability
5.5.4 Representativeness
5.6 The Affect Heuristic
5.7 Summary
5.8 Questions
5.9 References
5.0 OBJECTIVES
The chapter here explains what do we mean by decision-making and
different phases of decision-making.
Understanding different theoretical models of decision making
To learn one of the oldest and most famous theory of decision making-
Expected Utility Theory
Understanding Prospect theory of Decision Making in relation to
utility and subjective probability
Understanding how the concept of probability is related to decision
making and how it leads to judgments in decision making
It explains the various heuristics that we use while making decisions
56
5.1 INTRODUCTION Decision Making - I
You are a final-year graduation student trying to find your way through
life. The next task on your academic agenda is to find a suitable college
from where you can pursue your Masters/Post Graduation. But there are so
many colleges that one has to choose from and the decision you make will
have an impact on your life. Now what cognitive processes you might put
to use in this situation to evaluate your options? Cognitive psychologists
use the term “decision making” to refer to the mental activities that take
place in choosing among alternatives.
In day to day life we tend to face many situations where we have to take
certain decisions ranging from the not very important, such as which
clothes to wear today, to the moderately important, such as where to go on
a vacation, to the very important, like what career to choose. We could say
that decisions are a type of problem in which the alternatives are set out
and the problem is to choose the best alternative available. This becomes
easy, for example if the choice is between different amounts of money,
most people would readily choose the larger amount. However, if the
options are complicated and have uncertain consequences, for example
deciding what career to choose or which job offer to take, the decision
may be very difficult and have no clear correct solution. Typically,
difficult decisions require a lot of thinking to figure out the possible results
of different choices and so decision making is a complex cognitive
activity.
58
{Source: Galotti, K.M. (2014). Cognitive Psychology: In and Out of the Decision Making - I
Laboratory. (5thed.). Sage Publications (Indian reprint 2015).}
5.1.2 Theoretical Models of Decision Making:
It will be interesting to know howdo we make decisions, ranging from less
important like which dress to wear today to moderately important like
where to go for a vacation to a very important decision like which career
to choose. Are there any ideal ways to decide which would always lead to
the best answer? For centuries, these questions have been of great interest
to a wide range of researchers in different disciplines. Economists,
philosophers, mathematicians, and, more recently, psychologists,all have
attempted to answer the question of how to make the best decision.
Economists, philosophers, and mathematicians have focused on ideal
decision-making methods and, as we will see, have devised methods for
making the best choices in small-scale, well-defined decision tasks, such
as simple gambles. The normative approach refers to the search for good
ways to make decisions. Psychologists, on the other hand, take a
descriptive approach, attempting to understand what people actually do
rather than what they should ideally do. As we will see, normative
approaches provided ideas that were then used in descriptive
theories. Economists are beginning to develop behavioural-economics
theories based on descriptive theories that make more realistic
assumptions about human thinking. As a result, there has been
considerable interaction between descriptive and normative approaches.
There is also an approach known as prescriptive approach.
Normative approach- It attempts to establish norms i.e.ideal ways of
deciding that will give the best decision possible. It defines ideal
performance under ideal circumstances. Economists tend to develop
normative models.Normative approach of decision making is also
known as the classical theory of decision making.
Risk less decisions involve choices where the outcomes of the choices
are known with certainty. Thus, the negative outcomes can be
minimized by choosing the appropriate alternative.
If you decide to bet that a particular team will win a match that is a risky
decision. Because the result of the bet is unknown when you make this
decision. In such a situation the chance that you win or lose are almost
similar. On the other hand, deciding which coloured shirt to wear is risk
less. If you choose the blue shirt then that is what you will be wearing and
you won'tloose anything.
Single Attribute and Multi-Attribute alternatives-
Decision making becomes more difficult and complicated when there are
many alternatives and these alternatives differ from each other based on
different attributes (Multi-attributes) as against those objects which vary
in only one way (single attribute). For e.g. when you have to choose
which tie to wear, you might have to select from different ties which may
be identical except for colors. Here there is only one attribute of the object
i.e. colour. Multi-attribute decision problem is a decision task in which the
alternatives vary in many dimensions or aspects. For e.g. when you have
to buy a new mobile phone you might have to consider different aspects in
order to select one like operating system, size, weight, colour, camera
quality etc.
5.2 EXPECTED VALUE THEORY
While looking for ways to avoid risky gambles, mathematicians Blaise
Pascal (1623–62) and Pierre de Fermat (1601–65) proposed that people
should act to increase the expected value of choices. What does this mean?
The expected value of a risky choice is the average result you would get if
you repeated the action many times. For example, if a lottery ticket had an
85% chance of winning 100 rupees, its expected value would be 0.85 ×
100 rupees, that is 85 rupees (an average). If you can repeatedly take the
same risk (i.e. your lottery ticket is valid every week and has the same
chance of winning), you would get nothing sometimes (15 per cent of the
time) and you would get 100 Rs the rest of the time (85% of the time). So
a long-term average over all the purchases is 85 rupees. Looking at this
example using the expected value model, you should be willing to buy the
lottery ticket for any price under 85 rupees as it would mean you would
profit overall (even if it is only a small profit). Even buying the ticket for
84.99 rupees would be considered rational because you would make
something, even if it is only 1 rupee.
60
The expected value approach is one of the best ways to deal with risky Decision Making - I
decisions, for example in situations where we can put a money value on
the possible outcomes and can say exactly what the probabilities of the
possible outcomes are.
Can the expected value model predict people’s real life behaviour?
Research suggests it does not. Kahneman and Tversky (1984) with similar
decisions to the lottery ticket case found that people’s choices showed
differences from the expected value model predictions. Many participants
made choices that made them poorer. If they had all followed the expected
value approach, most would have been richer at the end of the experiment
than when they started.
Real life shows a different scenario from what expected value model
would predict. For example, why do most of us get insurance? To stay in
business the insurance companies gives in claim payments less than they
take through charges to customers. Overall the average customer must
lose, that is paying in more than they get back. So, from the expected
value point of view people should not take out insurance. Overall, these
examples make it clear that the simple expected value model does not fit
actual behaviour very well. Further theories highlighting subjective
probabilities and subjective measures of value (utility) have been
developed to overcome the problems related to expected value theory and
provide better explanations.
5.3 UTILITY AND PROSPECT THEORY
Utility-
The concept of utility versus objective value has a lengthy history, dating
at least as far back as the eighteenth-century mathematician Bernoulli
(1738). Utility is the subjective value of an option. The subjective value or
utility of a given additional quantity of money diminishes the more money
you already have, according to utility theory. A plot of utility vs money
should theoretically show diminishing returns. Figure 5.2 depicts our
intuition that an additional 100 Rs is more valuable to a poor individual
than it is to a billionaire.
Figure 5.2- Plot of utility versus money. This figure shows diminishing
growth of utility of extra wealth as wealth grows.
{Source: Gilhooly, K., Lyddy, F., &Pollick, F. (2014). EBOOK: Cognitive
Psychology. McGraw Hill.}
61
Cognitive Psychology Let’s understand utility by using this example- A poor person might cross
a busy road to pick up a 100 Rs note, whereas a rich person would not,
because the 100 Rs has vastly different utility for the rich and the poor.
Prospect Theory-
Prospect theory was developed by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and
Amos Tversky, originally published in 1979 in Econometrica. To
overcome issues with the expected value approach, Kahneman and
Tversky developed prospect theory. The theory explains how people make
decisions about which gambles (or 'prospects') to take and, more crucially,
it extends the utility plot into the realm of losses.Prospect theory is a
theory of decision-making stressing relative gains and losses.
Loss aversion is a key idea of prospect theory that there is a greater dislike
of losing utility than liking for gaining the same degree of utility. Prospect
theory, also known as Loss-Aversion theory, is a theory of decision-
making under conditions of risk. The model has been imported into a
number of fields and has been used to analyse various aspects of political
decision-making, especially in international relations. The theory was
mainly based on human decision making while handling financial
prospects relating to betting / gambling. Prospect theory assumes that
individuals make decisions based on expectations of loss or gain from
their current position. As shown in the figure 5.3, the S shaped curve
shows a steep fall with losses and more gradual growth with gains
Figure 5.3- Schematic plot of gains and losses versus utility according
to prospect theory.
{Source: Gilhooly, K., Lyddy, F., &Pollick, F. (2014). EBOOK: Cognitive
Psychology. McGraw Hill.}
62
5.4 SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY AND PROSPECT Decision Making - I
THEORY
Subjective and Objective Probability-
Depending on the nature of calculation or determination, there are two
types of Probabilities.
-The one that uses personal opinion is known as Subjective Probability
-While the one that uses history and data is known as Objective
Probability.
Of course, probability estimates can differ from one person to another or
from one time to the next. For example, when someone is in a bad mood,
his/her estimates of the likelihood of success in one of his/her ventures are
much lower than when he/she is happier. Optimistic people always seem
to find successful outcomes more probable than do pessimistic people.
Subjective probabilities are influenced by characteristics of the probability
estimator whereas objective probabilities are not. They are based on facts.
Of course, in many real-life circumstances, there may be no objective
probabilities available.
Prospect theory addresses the issue of probability as well. Both objective
values and known objective probabilities were assumed in the expected
value model.
As we have seen, prospect theory replaces objective values with subjective
values or utilities. It also proposes that people's perceptions of probability
deviate from objective values on a regular basis. Kahneman and Tversky
(1979), in particular, proposed that objective probabilities be transformed
into subjective probabilities known as 'decision weights.' As shown in
Figure 5.4, people tend to overestimate small probabilities and
underestimate large probabilities. This figure shows that decision weights
(the solid line) are overweight low probabilities and underweight high
probabilities. The dotted line shows what would happen if the decision
weights become equal to the objective probabilities.
63
Cognitive Psychology {Source: Gilhooly, K., Lyddy, F., &Pollick, F. (2014). EBOOK: Cognitive
Psychology. McGraw Hill.}
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choices are greatly based on whether the outcome was presented in terms Decision Making - I
of survival rate or mortality rate.
In the evaluation phase people tend to show aversion of loss and there are
certain factors at play - which are as follows.
Certainty effect: People tend to value certainty over outcomes that are
merely probable. Tversky and Kahneman (1986) used the following
examples to demonstrate the certainty effect-Consider the following
scenario:
Which option do you prefer out of the following?
A. a guaranteed profit of Rs. 300.
B. An 80% chance of winning Rs 450 and a 20% chance of winning
nothing.
Option A was chosen by 78 percent of participants, whereas option B was
chosen by only 22 percent. As the projected value of option B (Rs 450
x0.8=Rs 360) exceeds that of option A by 20%, this exhibits the classic
risk-aversion phenomenon in prospect theory and the framing effect.
Reflective effect: When it comes to positive gains, people give more
importance to a small but certain profit/gain over a larger but probable
gain. Although, when it comes to negative gains, people show risk-seeking
behaviour. For example, people prefer a loss that is probable over a small
loss that is certain. This seems to contradict people’s desire for safety and
insurance, but it is for moderate losses, rather than severe losses.
Related research:
Tversky and Kahneman wanted to study different impacts of framing
decisions in terms of potential losses as against potential gains. For this
research they created a scenario where people would have to decide how
to deal with an imaginary Asian disease. The options for treating the
disease could be framed and presented in terms of gains (lives saved) or
losses (lives lost). Prospect theory predicts that these different ways of
presenting the alternatives would have an impact on the choices made, so
that a risky option would be preferred when the choices were among
losses and a sure option would be preferred when the choices were among
gains. People were asked the following:
The first problem asks, if programme A is adopted, 200 people will be
saved. If programme B is adopted, there is a one third probability that 600
people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be
saved. Then the participants were asked to choose one of these two
options. Now the second problem poses these questions: if Programme C
is adopted, 400 people will die. If Programme D is adopted, there is a one-
third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600
people will die. Which programme should be chosen?
65
Cognitive Psychology The results show that in the first problem people preferred program A over
program B. Whereas in the second problem there was a strong preference
for program D over program C. The researchers further explained that in
Problem 1, participants are inclining towards a positive ‘gains’ frame, i.e.
in terms of lives saved. Whereas, in the second problem the participants
were working in a ‘losses’ frame, i.e. in terms of lives lost.
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that different from being 70% sure? What these numbers “mean” in the Decision Making - I
context of a real-life decision is not at all intuitive and is rather subjective.
If we think ofdefinition of probability, it says it is the number of
favourable events, divided by the total number of events. Let’s take an
example. You’ve surveyed 50 customers to know if they are satisfied with
your service. Out of them, 35 said they are happy.
Based on that information alone, can you predict what’s the attitude
(happy) of a random customer? You can make such predictions with
probability:
35/50 = 0.7 which means, there’s a 70% chance that an out-of-sample
customer will have a positive view of the service. That’s probability in the
simplest terms — the likelihood of something happening.
The above example has only 1 outcome — customers’ positive attitude.
However, some customers may demonstrate other preferences such
as negative or neutral attitudes. For multiple outcomes such as those,
calculating probability is slightly different.
Fast and frugal: People use heuristics since they are quick and
accurate in certain situations. Some theories contend that heuristics are
more accurate than biased.
Here are some conditions which explain when we use the heuristics-
When one is faced with too much information
When the time to make a decision is limited
When the decision to be made is relatively less important
When there is access to very little information to use in making the
decision
When an appropriate heuristic happens to come to mind at the time of
making decision
To deal with the enormous amount of information we encounter and to
speed up the decision-making process, the brain relies on these mental
strategies to simplify things so we don't have to spend endless amounts of
time analysing every detail.
Every day, you probably make hundreds, if not thousands, of decisions.
What should you eat for breakfast? What should you wear today? Should
you drive or take the bus? Fortunately, heuristics allow you to make such
decisions with relative ease and without much agonizing.
For example, when deciding whether to drive or take the bus to work, you
may suddenly recall that there is road construction along the bus route.
You are aware that this may cause the bus to stall. Heuristics allow you to
quickly think through all of the possible outcomes and arrive at a solution.
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scenario, recollections of words beginning with K are more readily Decision Making - I
recalled than memories of terms beginning with the third letter K.
Let’s look at another example. If you are planning to travel to Delhi by
flight and are reminded of a number of recent airline mishaps, you may
decide that flying is too risky and opt to travel by vehicle instead. The
availability heuristic causes you to assume that plane crashes are more
common than they are since those examples of aviation disasters came to
mind so easily.
In one of the study, Ross and Sicoly (1979) polled 37 married couples
(husbands and wives separately and independently) on the estimated
extent to which they take the responsibility for various household tasks,
such as cooking, breakfast, grocery shopping, and child care etc. Husbands
and wives were both more likely than their partners to say they had more
responsibility for 16 of the 20 activities required the presence of a spouse.
Furthermore, when asked to provide specific examples of contributions to
each activity made by themselves and their spouses, each spouse listed
more of her or his own activities than her or his spouse's activities.
The availability heuristic was used by Ross and Sicoly (1979) to explain
these findings. We are more aware of and accessible to our own efforts
and actions than we are aware to the efforts and behaviors of others. After
all, while we are always present when we conduct an activity, we may or
may not be there when a friend or spouse does. In general, we have greater
access to what we do, think, say, or intend than anyone else, and to the
thoughts, deeds, words and intentions of someone else.
Availability can be a reliable and effective heuristic. If we can be certain
that the ease with which we can build or recall examples is unbiased, it
may be the finest, if not the only, tool we have for gauging frequency or
likelihood. If you're attempting to figure out if you do more papers in
psychology or philosophy, it's generally a good idea to measure the
frequency of papers by recalling individual paper assignments for each
subject. There is probably no reason to suppose that psychology articles
are more remembered than philosophy papers in this circumstance. If there
is (for example, you took philosophy three years ago but psychology this
semester), the comparison is most likely unfair.
However, using availability to determine which happens more frequently,
hours you spend working on a group project or hours someone else spends
working on the same project, may be unjust. You were present whenever
you worked, but you may not have been present at all times when other
members of your group worked. Even if you had been present, you would
have been focused on your own work and planning rather than your
partners' work and preparation. As a result, examples of your own work
are more likely to stick with you and be more accessible than examples of
other people's work. So, using availability in such situation won't be
accurate.
The purpose of exhibiting the availability heuristic isn't to intimidate you.
You'll be kept away from it if you don't use it. Instead, like with all other
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Cognitive Psychology heuristics, the goal is to make recommendation that first consider whether
the range of examples you're considering is indeed adequately available.
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representative of a bank employee (T). A group of 88 students then ranked Decision Making - I
eight further statements about Linda by ‘the degree to which Linda is
similar to the typical member of that group. The description given and the
eight statements were as follows: Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken
and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply
concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also
participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Now rank the following
statements according to how likely you think they are to be true of Linda.
1) Linda is a teacher in elementary school
2) Linda works in a bookstore and takes Yoga classes
3) Linda is active in the feminist movement (F)
4) Linda is a psychiatric social worker
5) Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters
6) Linda is a bank teller (T)
7) Linda is an insurance salesperson
8) Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement (T and F)
Most people opted for describing Linda as F, rather than T. And to the
researchers surprise more people voted for ‘T and F’ rather than choosing
T or F individually.
Most individuals get this problem wrong, according to Tversky and
Kahneman, since they make use of representativeness: Option 2 appears to
be a more "representative" of Linda based on her description, despite the
fact that it is mathematically less likely.
Children often instinctively make use of this heuristic while asking for
parent’s approval. Such as the vacation with friends that you had planned -
you have waited for your parents to be “in a good mood” till you ask for
their permission to go.
These little incidents aside, many times people often misuse the existence
of affect heuristic to manipulate masses. Such as presenting smoking or
eating junk food as appealing and positive. In such cases the use of affect
heuristic can lead to long-term negative consequences such as poor health
decisions. Thus even though using heuristics in decision making can be a
quick short term fix - it cannot be a substitute for other elaborate
strategies.
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5.7 SUMMARY Decision Making - I
We have reviewed some of the major concepts and research findings in the
field of decision making in this chapter. We got the introduction to the
concept of decision making where we understood what do we mean by
decision making and different phases of decision making.
We saw that decision problems were characterized according to whether
they were risky or risk less, or whether they had a single attribute or
multiple attributes.
Decision-making approaches were classified as normative, prescriptive
and descriptive. Normative models attempt to characterize the behaviour
of a rational decision maker in an ideal world. The descriptive models
explain how decisions are actually taken as against how they should be. In
this unit we learnt about the most famous normative model of decision
making i.e. expected value theory of decision making. As per this theory,
people should act to maximize the expected value of a choice. This
approach is an optimal in the risky scenario where we can apply monetary
value on the outcomes of the different alternatives.
However, the expected value maximization model, the simplest normative
model, clearly does not fit individual behaviour. This is due in part to the
fact that the subjective value (utility) of money, for example, is not a
simple linear function of money amounts, and people tend to over-weight
very small probabilities while under-weighting high probabilities. We
learnt the concepts of utility (subjective value) and subjective probability
in relation to Prospect Theory. Prospect theory of decision making was
developed to overcome the issues with the expected value theory. It
stresses the relative gains and losses. The prospect theory approach fits a
lot of the data, including the effects of framing, which lead to violations of
basic rationality principles in the form of certainty and reflective effect.
Since risky decisions require that decision makers take account of
probabilities, the question of how people handle probability information
has been tackled in a number of studies. Tversky and Kahneman (1974,
1983) have provided many demonstrations of how inappropriate usage of
heuristics such as availability, representativeness and affect can lead to
misjudgements and errors in decision making and how to avoid it.
5.8 QUESTIONS
Q.1.What is Decision Making?
Q.2.What do you mean by normative and descriptive models of decision
making? Explain the expected value theory as a normative model.
Q.3. What do you mean by Heuristics in Decision making? Explain the
Availability and representativeness in brief.
Q.4. Explain Prospect theory in brief.
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Cognitive Psychology Q.5 Write Short notes on-
A) Subjective Probability and Prospect Theory
B) Framing Effect
C) Affect Heuristic
Activity-Take a real-life scenario and explain experience of Availability
and Representative Heuristic in real life.
5.9 REFERENCES
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6
DECISION MAKING – II
Unit Structure
6.0 Objective
6.1 Decision Making Process for Multi-Attribute Alternatives
6.1.1 Multi Attribute Utility Theory
6.1.2 Elimination by Aspects
6.1.3 Satisficing
6.1.4 Testing Multi Attribute Decision Models
6.2 Two system Approaches to Decision Making
6.3 Fast and Frugal Heuristic: The adaptive toolbox
6.4 Naturalistic Decision Making
6.4.1 Naturalistic Decision Making and important real-life choices
6.5 Neuroeconomics: Neuroscience Approaches to Decision Making
6.5.1 What is Neuroeconomics?
6.5.2 The link between neuroeconomics and decision making
6.6 Summary
6.7 Questions
6.8 References
6.0 OBJECTIVES
To explain different decision making processes for multi-attribute
alternatives including MAUT, Satisficing, Elimination by aspects.
Understanding how the heuristics can be helpful and adaptive and not
just ways of making cognitive errors
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Cognitive Psychology 6.1 DECISION MAKING PROCESSES FOR MULTI
ATTRIBUTE ALTERNATIVES
The majority of real-life decisions involve choosing between complex
alternatives that differ in a variety of ways. For example, when purchasing
a new laptop, there are numerous functions that vary in quality and ease of
use. What is the operating system? What is the resolution of the screen?
What is the storage capacity? How simple would it be to view video on the
screen? Or to read lengthy documents? What is the laptop’s size? How
long does it take to charge a battery? What is your financial budget and
does it matches with the price of the laptop? How long will you be bound
by the contract? And so forth. This is an example of deciding between
alternatives that differ in a variety of ways. How does one reconcile cost
advantages with disadvantages such as battery life or screen resolution?
The general issue that many people face to decide between different
attributes of the alternatives.
As we saw in the previous unit, decision making becomes more difficult
and complicated when there are many alternatives and these alternatives
differ from each other based on different attributes (multi-attributes) as
against those objects which vary in only one way (single attribute). As
explained in the above example, multi-attribute decision problem is a
decision task in which the alternatives vary in many dimensions or
aspects.
In the following section we will discuss about what criteria should be used
to make such decisionsAnd how do they appear to be made.
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(3) Listing all the alternatives- you will list down all the alternatives that Decision Making - II
you are thinking as options to choose your majors from like psychology,
political science, economics, philosophy, etc.
(4) Ranking the alternatives along the attributes- In this step, you will
score each alternative for five attributes that you have identified in the first
step. You have to use same scale length for all attributes (For e.g. 0-100 or
1-10 etc)
(6) Choosing the alternative with the highest value- So, you will choose
the one alternative which scores highest.
This method of decision making is most suitable for situations wherein
consideration of multiple domains or contributing factors needs to be
taken into account.
Let us understand this model in simpler way as explained by Kopp
&Slayter (1984) where they applied MAUT to decision of choosing a
career which was created using a computer programme called as Decision
Map.
Figures 6.1 to 6.3 show an example of MAUT applied to a major decision.
Look first at Figure 6.1, which depicts the first two steps in MAUT. It
displays the five dimensions listed in the previous paragraph, as well as
any weightings assigned by a specific student. (Once again, weightings
indicate the importance of a given aspect of the decision to the decision
maker.)
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Decision Making - II
6.1.3 Satisficing
Simon describes 'satisficing,' a further simplifying technique that could be
used in decision making (1956, 1978). The basic idea is that rather than
expending time and effort to maximise utility, most people are content to
set a minimum acceptable level that will satisfy them but fall short of the
maximum. This is especially true in the case of sequential decisions. In the
case of buying a house, for example, houses come onto the market on a
regular basis, making it difficult to determine whether a particular house
was the best option because a better one might appear the next day.
As a result, buyers can set acceptable levels, either for total utility or for
key aspects of the properties, and choose the first property that meets all of
their minimum requirements. For example, one may only set criteria of
house with X price and in Y locality. The first house that is suggested
which fulfills this criteria is then selected. Should the initial minimum
requirements prove too ambitious, Simon (1978) proposes that the
satisficing level be gradually adjusted in light of market average values, so
that, as a result of experience, the decision maker can become more
realistic about his or her criteria.
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6.1.4 Testing Multi Attribute Decision Models Decision Making - II
As we pointed out previously, it is interesting to know how people take a
decision when faced with a decision problem having different alternatives
having multiple attributes. To figure out which (if any) of the major multi-
attribute choice models are reasonably descriptive of behaviour, one must
be able to deduce how humans process information during decision
making. Payne (1976) did a study relevant to this aspect of decision
making processes and contributed with unique findings which were
beneficial in the research of decision-making processes. In Payne's (1976)
study, when participants had to choose between alternatives having
different attributes, the participants used simple (non-compensatory)
techniques to reduce the number of options, then used compensatory
methods such as MAUT to analyse the remaining few options more
thoroughly. That is, they used mixed techniques, normative as well as
descriptive to make a better decision.
Overall, research shows that when deciding between multi-attribute
options, no single decision technique is always adopted. Rather, it appears
that techniques are used to strike a balance between lowering cognitive
load and enhancing the utility of the desired outcome. In general,
cognitive burden of decision-making may be reduced by selecting at
random, but the resulting decisions would be bad. By evaluating all
alternatives on all important dimensions, integrating the resulting
information for all alternatives, and picking the best, the quality of
decision making would be maximized, but the information processing
necessity would be extremely demanding. Participants generally strike a
balance between effort and decision quality, and they may change
methods during a task.
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can form a comprehensive description of how people behave in a variety Decision Making - II
of contexts. These behaviors vary from lunch selections to how physicians
decide whether to prescribe medication for depression, to making business
decisions. Following are two prominent examples of fast and frugal
heuristics: theRecognition Heuristic, which exploits a lack of knowledge,
and the Take the Best heuristic, which deliberately ignores information.
Both heuristics can be applied to choice tasks and to situations in which a
decision maker has to choose which of two objects has a higher value.
Recognition Heuristic: Suppose someone asks you which of two Italian
cities have the larger population, Milan or Modena. Most students have
heard of Milan, but they may not recognize the name of a nearby city
called Modena. The recognition heuristic typically operates when you
must compare the relative frequency of two categories.If you recognize
one category, but not the other, so we tend to conclude that the recognized
category has the higher frequency. In this case, you would correctly
respond that Milan has the greater population.
Take the Best Heuristic: It was discovered by psychologists
GerdGigerenzer and Daniel Goldstein as part of their research on human
decision making. In a 2013 study, researchers found that experienced
airport customs staff used the heuristic to select travellers for body
searches. To aid in their decision, the officers used attributes such as
nationality, amount of luggage, and airport of origin. People often use this
type of decision making strategies while voting for political candidates.
They tend to find 1 or 2 significant attributes of the candidate which they
find to be the most important and vote accordingly. Such as someone from
the agricultural industry voting for a candidate solely based on who
supports their views on farm laws.
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Cognitive Psychology studying this method. Klein (1998), Lipshitz et al. (2001), and Phillips et
al. (2004) studied firefighter, nurse, police, and military decision-making
in real-life events. This work is a more advanced variant of laboratory
work that examines what happens in real-life situations. In actuality, the
decision maker may not be given options to choose from, but instead must
devise one or more possible actions.
It was found that recognition primed decision making was most common.
For example, during a critical incident analysis if a police officer sees a
man on the street hiding a knife, from his mannerisms the police officer
might recognize that this was a situation of possible danger to other
citizens and tries to isolate the man.
Findings show that in many critical situations only a single action was
mentally generated and it was then executed. The basic that initially
produced possible actions are often very appropriate was replicated in a
study of expert chess players (Klein et al., 1995). The players were asked
to think aloud while deciding their moves to sample positions and it was
found that the very first moves that came to mind were rated as high
quality and much better than chance by independent expert judges.
NDM community views intuition as an expression of experience as
people build up patterns that allow them to quickly evaluate situations and
make rapid decisions without having to compare options. Now what
counts as expertise? NDM researchers identify experts as being able to
make fine discrimination that may be invisible to novices, having
sophisticated mental models of how things work, and having resilience to
adapt to complex and dynamic situations.
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Findings of this study showed that- Decision Making - II
Participants consistently considered fewer options and larger
criteria/attributes.
With time, number of options shrank but number of criteria did not.
85
Cognitive Psychology neuroeconomics investigates brain activity before, during, and after
economic choices.
Neuroeconomics use wide variety of techniques to measure brain activity.
Some of these techniques are so invasive, for example, single neuron
recordings, that they can only be used on animals. Other techniques, for
example, functional magnetic resonance imaging, FMRI, are less invasive
and are able to measure the hemodynamic response, that is, the changes in
blood flows to different parts of the brain. There are very recent
techniques such as transcranial magnetic stimulation, TMS as well.
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emotion in economic decision making is blurred when attempting to Decision Making - II
understand the neural circuitry mediating these classes of behaviors
(Phelps, 2006)
In an fMRI study, Sanfey et al. (2003) discovered that accepting unfair
offers was associated with relatively greater activation in the dorsolateral
prefrontal cortex (related to controlled cognitive processing) and rejecting
unfair offers was associated with relatively greater activation in the right
anterior insula (related to negative emotions such as disgust).
Affective factor-
Affective processes have a role in decision-making, and it has been
discovered that older people are generally more optimistic than younger
ones, and are more prone to focus on the situation's possible benefits. This
proclivity to emphasize on the good outcomes affects the decisions in
elderly people.
If older individuals are aware that they are prone to focusing on the
benefits or 'upsides' of their financial decisions, taking the time to consider
the potential losses could help them avoid making costly judgments.
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Cognitive Psychology 6.6 SUMMARY
To summarize, this unit enumerated further theories of decision making
with respect to multi-attribute alternatives. In the case of multi-attribute
decision making, the burden of integrating multiple attributes into a single
overall value measure leads to suboptimal but easy procedures like
elimination-by-aspects and satisficing. Payne demonstrated the use of
elimination-by-aspects, at least as a first stage in multi-attribute choice
problems.
Gigerenzer (1993, 2007) emphasised the broad benefits of real-life
heuristics like the recognition heuristic, which allow for good decision
making with minimal effort (fast-and-frugal heuristics).
The popularity of fast-and-frugal heuristics, such as taking the first
alternative thought of in a given situation, is further supported by studies
of real-life decision making utilising the naturalistic decision making
approach.
According to research into the brain underpinnings of decision-making
and specifically in the area of financial decision making shows that how
different neural processes are involved in the study of financial decision
making
6.7 QUESTIONS
Q.1. What are the models of decision making to deal with multi-attribute
alternatives? Explain normative as well as descriptive approaches.
Q.2.What are the relative roles of System 1 and System 2 processes in
decision making?
Q.3. Explain the Gigerenzer’s perspective towards heuristic and how it
serve as adaptive toolbox? Explain how it is different from
Kahneman’s approach.
Q.4. Do neuroscience approaches increase our understanding of decision
making? How?
Q.5 Write Short notes on-
A) Multi-Attribute Utility theory
B) Satisficing and Elimination by Aspects
C) Naturalistic decision making
D) Decision making in elderly people
E) Neuroeconomics
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6.8 REFERENCES Decision Making - II
89
7
REASONING - I
Unit Structure
7.0 Objectives
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Deductive Reasoning
7.2.1 Propositional Reasoning
7.2.2 Syllogistic Reasoning
7.3 Henle on ‘rationality’
7.4 Summary
7.5 Questions
7.6 References
7.0 OBJECTIVES
After reading this unit you will be able to understand –
1. What is reasoning?
2. What is Deductive Reasoning?
3. What is propositional reasoning?
4. What is meant by mental logic approaches?
5. What is syllogistic reasoning?
6. What are the various biases that influence logical reasoning?
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The great philosopher Aristotle said that all human beings are rational.
They have the ability to reason. We are continuously using reasoning
while making even routine daily decisions. We are evolutionary wired to
use reasoning. It is crucial for our survival. Any error in our reasoning can
adversely affect our relationships, our careers, and even our safety. People
may use reasoning deliberately to solve certain puzzles or problems or
they may use it at unconscious level, even while not being aware of it. For
example, in the Silver Blaze story written by A.C. Doyle in 1892,
Sherlock Holmes solves the mystery of disappearance of racehorse, named
Silver Blaze, by using reasoning at conscious level. He argues that the
horse was in the stable, guarded by a guard dog. If a stranger had entered
90
the stable, the dog would have barked, but the dog did not bark. That Reasoning - I
indicates that the person who entered the stable and took away the horse
was not a stranger. Using the reasoning like this, he came to the
conclusion that that the theft of the racehorse was done by somebody from
the known people and not by a stranger. The mystery was solved. On the
other hand, when a mother observes the child lowering his face and
stammering while answering her questions, she concludes that the child is
guilty of doing something that he was not supposed to do. She has used
reasoning at an unconscious level. When we hear the sound of water
dripping, we conclude that the tap must be open and we go to check which
tap is open. We use reasoning at unconscious level. Thuswe are
genetically programmed to use reasoning in almost all of our decisions.
Now, let us see what is reasoning.
“Reasoning is a stepwise thinking with a purpose or goal in mind” —
Garrett.
2. “Reasoning is the term applied to highly purposeful, controlled and
selective thinking”—Gates.
Reasoning is the cognitive process of deriving new information from old
information.
“Reasoning is the word used to describe the mental recognition of cause
and effect relationships, it may be the prediction of an event from an
observed cause or the inference of a cause from an observed event”—
Skinner.
Thus, reasoning is a highly specialized thinking which helps an individual
to explore mentally the cause and effect relationship of an event or
solution of a problem by adopting some well-organized systematic steps
based on previous experience combined with present observation. There
are two types of reasoning – Deductive and Inductive reasoning. In this
unit, we will discuss deductive reasoning.
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Cognitive Psychology truthfulness of conclusion depends upon this premises. The conclusion
may be logical and yet not true if the premises is not true.
Deductive reasoning is further divided into two types –
1. Propositional reasoning
2. Syllogistic reasoning
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2. Denying the antecedent: This is another fallacy of conditional rule Reasoning - I
that uses the inference pattern of modus tollens incorrectly. This involves
using modus tollens pattern of, ‘if p then q’ to conclude ‘not p’ means ‘not
q’ is true. For example, If it is Monday, Tina goes to college’. It is not
Monday, therefore Tina is not going to college today. This argument is
also not valid inference as the rule does not mean that Tina goes to college
only on Mondays.
Above examples of ‘if…then’ conditional rules are called ‘material
implication. There is another type of conditional rule that is known as rule
of equivalence or biconditional. Biconditional rule states the rule as ‘ if
and only if’. In other words, ‘q if and only if p’, that means p is true only
if q is true ( affirming the consequent) and ‘not q’ happens when ‘not p’(
denying the antecedent). For example, only and only if a closed figure is a
triangle, then it has three sides and if it does not have three sides then it is
not a triangle. Affirming the consequent and denying the antecedent are
valid arguments if we follow the rule of equivalence but not valid if we
follow the rule of material implication. There is a possibility of an error
taking place if we misinterpret material implication as equivalence in
conditional reasoning.
Psychologists carried out many research studies to find out how people
perform on these four arguments, viz., modus ponens, modus tollens,
affirming the consequent and denying the antecedent. These experiments
were conducted by using both abstract material ( e.g. , if there is an A then
there is 1) as well as concrete materials (e.g., if it is Sunday then Tina eats
non veg in lunch). Meta analysis of these studies indicated that people
perform with almost 100 percent accuracy in the case of modus ponens,
with 60 percent accuracy in case of modus tollens and about quarter of a
time people correctly reject affirming the consequent and denying the
antecedent fallacies.
Conditional inferences can be put in table form as shown in table 1 for
better clarity
Table 1
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Cognitive Psychology Suppression effects
Some psychologists believe that fallacies in conditional reasoning can be
due to misinterpretation of the premises. For example, suppose a student is
given the information that “ if there is heavy rain, then water logging takes
place in Mumbai”. Student is now given the information that there has
been water logging in Mumbai, he might draw the inference that “ it must
have rained heavily”. But suppose if he is given additional information
that water logging can take place due to high tide in the sea or due to
clogged gutters, then he will not be so sure that water logging has taken
place due to heavy rain.Rumain, Connell, and Braine (1983) in their study
showed that when a possible alternative was explicitly presented to
participants, the affirmation of consequent (e.g. if p then q ,q therefore p)
and denial of the antecedent (e.g. if p then q, not p , therefore not q) are
less likely to take place. They suggested that giving additional antecedents
such as “if gutters are not clogged, there is no water logging” makes it
clear that heavy rain is not the only thing required for water logging to
take place and therefore equivalence interpretation is blocked and fallacies
of affirming the consequent and denying the antecedent is suppressed.
Later on, Byrne (1989) found a similar effect on modus ponens and modus
tollens when a possible disabler was mentioned. In other words,
knowledge of additional background conditions suppresses inferences
such as modus ponens and modus tollens. For a pair of conditionals that
contain an additional condition (sometimes called an enabler), such as “ if
it rains heavily, water logging takes place in Mumbai; also if gutters are
clogged, water logging takes place in Mumbai”, the frequency of student
making an inference drops drastically because now he is not sure why the
water logging took place in Mumbai. For example, when a student is told
“ there is waterlogging in Mumbai” he no longer makes the modus ponens
inference “ therefore it rained heavily”, and when a student is told that “
there was no waterlogging in Mumbai” he does not make the modus
tollens inference “ therefore it did not rain heavily in Mumbai”. These
findings have come to be known as the suppression effect. The additional
information or extra premises seems to form a conjunctive condition with
the first premise or first information. For example, “ If it rains heavily and
if the gutters are clogged then water logging takes place in Mumbai”. This
indicates that surrounding context can affect interpretations and so
influence reasoning.
Mental models
“Mental models are deeply held internal images of how the world works,
images that limit us to familiar ways of thinking and acting. Very often,
we are not consciously aware of our mental models or the effects they
have on our behaviour.” – Peter Senge
Mental models are made up of meaning, values, ideas, beliefs, concepts,
premises, images, representations, previous experiences, symbols,
language, assumptions, etc. mental models represent the meaning of
connectives and quantifiers such as and, or, if, and also include such
quantifiers as “most” and “few,” and a variety of other sorts of
constructions, such as spatial, temporal, and causal relations, and
counterfactual conditionals. They are the thinking tools that you use to
understand life, make decisions, and solve problems.
Mental model approach proposes that people tackle logical reasoning
problems by forming mental representations of possible states of the world
and draw inferences from those representations. Mental models, it is
argued, offer economical forms of representation that appear
psychologically plausible. In other words, each mental model represents a
possibility. If the premises are true, there is a possibility of drawing a
conclusion.
So, we can say that mental representations of possible states of the world
is known as mental models. Mental models are also known as the model
theory. A fundamental assumption of the theory is the principle of truth.
Johnson-Laird (1999) stated that mental models help people reduce burden
on working memory by only representing only what is true and not what is
false. If mental models are not complete, they may lead to ‘illusory
inferences’ that may be compelling, but invalid inferences. For example,
Johnson-Laird (2006) conducted an experiment as follows –
Either Jane is kneeling by the fire and she is looking at the TV or
elseMark is standing at the window and he is peering into the garden.Jane
is kneeling by the fire.
Does it follow that Jane is looking at the TV?
Most people do say ‘yes’ to this question, but the inference is not valid; it
is an example of an illusory inference.
Just because Jane is kneeling by the fire, it does not follow that she is
looking at the TV; she may be or may not be. Johnson-Laird argued that
the principle of truth leads people to form models in which the possibility
of it being false is not represented and that is why the illusory inference
takes place.
96
Johnson-Laird et al. (1992) also found that the number of mental models Reasoning - I
needed per problem depends upon the level of problem difficulty, i.e.,
difficult tasks require more models. They further reported that that modus
ponens is easier than modus tollens for conditionals because modus
ponens requires only one model while modus tollens requires three
models. It was observed that exclusive disjunctions (i.e. ‘p or q, but not
both’) were harder than conditionals and that modus tollenswas easier with
biconditionals (or equivalences) than with conditionals.
Obsessive-compulsive disorder, anxiety and depression are three examples
of neuroses which are disorders of behaviour and feeling. Beck (1976,
1991) believed that they are due to faulty reasoning either from invalid
inferences or from false beliefs and this is the basis of his cognitive-
behavioural therapy. For example, a person with depression might make a
conclusion without realizing that it is invalid,: ‘If you’re worthless then
you fail at everything’; ‘I failed my exam’; ‘So, I am worthless’. On the
other hand, Johnson-Laird et al. (2006) proposed that neuroses originated
in overemotional reactions to situations (the hyper-emotion theory) and
that reasoning errors were not a key factor in such mental illnesses. They
argued that if anything, neurotic patients should reason better about
material related to their disorder than controls, because the patients tended
to be very preoccupied with their condition and mulled over material
related to their condition very often.
97
Cognitive Psychology Both mental logic and mental models approaches successfully deal with
propositional reasoning but only mental model approach easily applies to
syllogistic reasoning.
98
Quantity wise – The quantifiers can be expressed in terms of all, none, Reasoning - I
some.
Quality wise - The premises and conclusion- may be negative or
affirmative.
The terms – The terms used may be abstract or concrete. Example of
abstract terms can be “ All S are P” .Example of concrete terms can be
“All dogs are mammals”
The premises and conclusion- may be negative or affirmative.
The propositions in the argument -may be empirically true or false.
Even the required responses can vary. For example, participants can be
asked to generate valid inferences from given premises; to judge a
possible conclusion as valid or not; or to select a valid conclusion from a
list of alternatives.
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Cognitive Psychology Quantitative (all or some) and qualitative (affirmative or negative)
attributes of premises can togetherproduce an "atmosphere" that induces a
participant to either accept or reject a certain conclusion consistent with
it.Woodworth and Sells (1935) proposed that if both premises involve
‘all’, people are disposed to accepting an ‘all’ conclusion. If
anyonepremise involves ‘some’, people will be disposed to a ‘some’
conclusion. If any onepremise involves ‘not’, people are disposed to
accept a ‘not’ conclusion. An invalid argument is often accepted by the
participants, if the argument is presented in abstract form.
Atmosphere versus conversion errors (illicit conversion) and
probabilistic inference:
Chapman and Chapman (1959) presented an alternative to atmosphere
effect hypothesis. According to thempeople apply heuristicsknown as
‘conversion’ and ‘probabilistic inference’which are not appropriate. In
their experiment, they gave participants problems such as
Some Ls are Ks
Some Ks are Ms
Therefore, (1) No Ms are Ls, (2) Some Ms are Ls, (3) Some Ms are not Ls,
(4) None of these, (5) All Ms are Ls.
The correct conclusion to above problem is (4) ‘None of these’.
Participants tended to be wrong on such items and the kind of error that
they made depended on the form of syllogism. When they presented
different types of syllogism, the type of error that participants committed
was determined by the atmosphere effect. However, participants failed on
the following type of syllogism –
(A)
Some X are Y
No Y are Z
and
(B)
Some X are not Y
No Y are Z.
The right response for both A and B (on atmosphere) was ‘Some Z are not
X’; but most of the participants chose ‘No Z are X’, especially on (A)
problem. In case of B problem, they were evenly split between the
universal and the particular conclusions on (B).Chapmans said that results
of their experiment can be explained further by two reasoning errors called
‘conversion’ and ‘probabilistic inference’.
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Conversion errors: Reasoning - I
There are two types of conversion errors that will be described first in
abstract terms and then in concrete terms. First is the assumption in
abstract form that–
(1) from ‘All X are Y’ that ‘All Y are X’ and
(2) that ‘Some As are not Bs’ implies
‘Some Bs are not As’.
In concrete form, it will be -
‘All women are human’, but it does not imply that ‘All humans are
women’. Similarly, saying ‘Some humans are not politicians’ does not
imply that ‘Some politicians are not humans’.
Chapmans said that people tend to make conversions unless they have
information to the contrary (which they do not have with abstract
material).
Probabilistic inference:
Probabilistic inference refers to ‘plausible reasoning’ that is not valid in
deductive logic. For example , suppose it is said
‘Some cloudy days are wet’, (premises)
‘Some wet days are unpleasant’, (premises)
‘Some cloudy days are unpleasant’(conclusion)
In this example, the conclusion may be true or may not be true. It does not
necessarily follow from the premises, even if the premises are true. The
Chapmans said that these two types of errors explained their results much
better than the atmosphere effect.
Later on ,Begg and Denny(1969), Sells (1936) and Chapman & Chapman
(1959) re-examined the atmosphere effect vs. conversion error and found
that atmosphere predictions were more frequently found to be true than the
conversion and probabilistic inference predictions.
However, Wason and Johnson-Laird (1972) concluded from their study
that atmosphere hypothesis cannot completely explain syllogistic
reasoning. Even Wilkins’s (1928) too reported that atmosphere effect is
not so strong with familiar or concrete material as it is with abstract or
unfamiliar material.
101
Cognitive Psychology the examples of illogical thinking actually tacitly ignore some of the given
premises, ignore the misrepresentation of some the other premises, and
include additional premises. In general, people make rational inferences
depending upon how they interpret the premises. To support her point of
view, For example , Henle gave the following problem participants of
experiment and asked them to assess the validity of this argument, as well
as give reasons for their answers.
It’s important to talk about things that are in our minds.We spend so much
of our time in the kitchen that household problems are in our minds.
Therefore, it’s important to talk about household problems.
She found that some of her students did not look at the task as an exercise
in pure logic. They did not differentiate between logical validity and
factualtruth. They said that “it is not important to talk about things in our
minds unless they worry us.” Many of them interpreted the premises or
conclusion and this led to change in intended meaning. Some of them
completely ignored the premises and said “ I don’t think of household
problems so it is not important for me to talk about them”.
At times, participants added a totally new premises that was not given to
them originally. For example, “ It is only important to talk about the things
that really worry us a lot and household problems don’t; so it is not
important to talk about them”.
On the basis of such observations Henle (1962) said that the reason for
subjects seemingly giving invalid conclusions or failing to see the fallacy,
can be that they have worked with material which is different from the
intended material or they may have performed the task in a different
manner than what was intended. So, if we take into account the way an
individual actually understood the material and the task to be performed,
then his conclusion may not appear to be invalid and his reasoning may
not appear to be a faulty reasoning. This shows that laws of logic can be
detected from their thinking process itself.
Henle emphasized that different participants can interpret tasks, materials
and goals in different ways. If we pay attention to different possible
interpretations of an argument, then it is easy to understand the behaviour
of people and conclude that they have followed the logical reasoning but
that reasoning is different from what experimenter had originally intended
it to be.
Ceraso and Provitera (1971) compared the interpretations of traditional
syllogism statements and syllogism premises having very clear
interpretations. For example, one group of participants were given the
statement ‘Some of the As (but not all) are Bs, but all of the Bs are As’
(syllogism statements with clear interpretation).
Another group were given the traditional syllogism statements such as
“Some A’s are Bs”. The results showed that participants who were given
102
the clarified premises performed much better than those who were given Reasoning - I
the traditional syllogism premises.
104
It was noticed by them that the atmosphere hypothesis, conversion and Reasoning - I
probabilistic inference hypothesis do not predict the figure bias effect. So,
Johnson-Laird and Steedman(1978), came up with the mental models
theory. This theory has 4 stages. They are -
(1) interpretation of premises;
(2) initial heuristic combination of the representations of the two premises;
(3) formulation of a conclusion corresponding to the combination of
premises;
(4) a logical test (or series of tests) of the initial heuristic combination,
which may lead to the conclusion being modified or abandoned.
This theory differs from the previous mentioned theories in terms of the
last testing stage. This last stage can lead to a changed combination of
information in the premises which in turn may be tested again.
Johnson-Laird and Steedman explained the theory in the form of a
computer program and its performance vs. human performance. In their
experiment they used 64 problems. It was expected that some syllogisms
would not lead to any modifications while others would lead to modified
conclusions after testing. Where it was expected that premises will not
lead to any modifications after testing did meet the expectation and were
found to be 80.4 percent correct, while in other syllogisms 46.5 percent
were found to be correct.
It was believed that figure bias takes place when the information is
processed in short term memory. Johnson-Laird and Bara (1984)
conducted an experiment to test this belief and found that figure bias did
take place even when the participants were exposed to syllogism for a
brief period of just 10 seconds. With such short exposure to syllogism,
participants found it difficult to make combinations of premises in certain
figures (such as B-A, B-C, in which required reordering of terms in one of
the premises in order to integrate premises) and this led to high rate of
(incorrect) conclusions that ‘no conclusion can be drawn’. Johnson-Laird
(1983, p. 104) reports data from studies which found that the rate of
drawing correct conclusions declined sharply as the number of possible
combined models increased from one to three because load on working
memory increased. Gilhooly (2005) also supported this view that difficult
syllogisms put heavy load on working memory, impairing its performance.
105
Cognitive Psychology scientists are golfers’. If the premises were ‘Some drivers are golfers’ and
‘All the scientists are golfers’ a conclusion in which ‘drivers’ was the
topic (‘Some drivers are scientists’) would be more natural.
2. The mental models theory assumes that all participants approach the
task in the same way and the theory does not provide any explicit
mechanisms of change or improvement. But in reality, in any large sample
of participants, there are bound to be individual differences. Some may get
most syllogisms correct, some others may be at guessing level and the
remainder may show the typical variations in item difficulty.
Galotti et al. (1986) found in their experiment that participants who had no
training in formal logic but were bunched up as ‘good resoners’ either
used or quickly developed short-cut rules that helped them in avoiding
laborious explorations of multiple models. For example, better reasoners
used the rules that two ‘some’ premises could only yield no valid
conclusion and similarly that two negative premises must give no valid
conclusion.
7.4 SUMMARY
In this unit, we started with what is reasoning and why it is important.
Reasoning was defined as stepwise thinking with a purpose or goal in
mind. It is a cognitive process of deriving new information from old
information. Next it was emphasized that there are two types of reasoning
– deductive and inductive. In this unit we have discussed deductive
reasoning and in next unit we will discuss inductive reasoning. It was
emphasized that deductive reasoning means applying certain logical rules
106
to given information to draw valid conclusions. Deductive reasoning is Reasoning - I
also of two types – propositional reasoning and syllogistic reasoning.
Propositional reasoning helps us to develop arguments based on certain
rules of logic. Drawing conclusions from given statements or premises is
known as drawing inferences. Some of the inference rules are modus
ponens, modus tollens, and double negation. Modus ponens and modus
tollens are used mainly in conditional problems where the premises are in
the form of if…then. However, these rules suffer from two fallacies –
affirming the consequent and denying the antecedent. Another fallacy of
conditional reasoning is suppression effect. This takes place due to
misrepresentation of the premises. It is found that knowledge of additional
background conditions suppresses inferences such as modus ponens and
modus tollens.
Braine et. al. (1984) proposed in their mental logic theory, in which they
emphasized that people use a set of mental inference or schemas, a
reasoning programme that implements the schemas to construct the lines
of reasoning and a pragmatic architecture in which reasoning is imbedded.
Mental models are the thinking tools that you use to understand life, make
decisions, and solve problems. They aremade up of meaning, values,
ideas, beliefs, concepts, premises, images, representations, previous
experiences, symbols, language, assumptions, etc. mental models
represent the meaning of connectives and quantifiers such as and, or, if,
and also include such quantifiers as “most” and “few,” and a variety of
other sorts of constructions. Mental models are also known as the model
theory. If mental models are not complete, they may lead to ‘illusory
inferences’ that may be compelling, but invalid inferences.
Another type of deductive reasoning is categorical syllogisms. Syllogism
is an argumentation in which, from two known propositions that contain a
common idea, and one at least of which is universal, a third proposition,
different from the two propositions, follow with necessity.
Atmosphere effect is a tendency to draw conclusions in syllogisms that are
over influenced by the form of the premises rather than the logic of the
argument. Quantitative (all or some) and qualitative (affirmative or
negative) attributes of premises can combinedly produce an "atmosphere"
that induces a participant to either accept or reject a certain conclusion
consistent with it.
When people apply heuristics which are not appropriate , it is known as
‘conversion’ and ‘probabilistic inference’.Chapmans said that people tend
to make conversions unless they have information to the contrary
.Probabilistic inference refers to ‘plausible reasoning’ that is not valid in
deductive logic. the conclusion may be true or may not be true. It does not
necessarily follow from the premises, even if the premises are true. While
talking about rationality, Henle (1962) said that the reason for subjects
seemingly giving invalid conclusions or failing to see the fallacy, can be
that they have worked with material which is different from the intended
material or they may have performed the task in a different manner than
107
Cognitive Psychology what was intended. Studies indicated that when someone gives a correct
answer to a reasoning problem, it does not mean the answer was deduced
by applying rules of logic.
Mental Model approach to syllogism has 4 stages - (1) interpretation of
premises;
(2) initial heuristic combination of the representations of the two premises;
(3) formulation of a conclusion corresponding to the combination of
premises;
(4) a logical test (or series of tests) of the initial heuristic combination,
which may lead to the conclusion being modified or abandoned.
Belief bias generally does not take place when the premises are in abstract
form but takes place when premises are in concrete form.
7.5 QUESTIONS:
1. Define propositional reasoning. Discuss in detail various inference
rules developed by logicians to derive proper conclusions from
patterns of propositions?
2. Elaborate on mental logic approach and evaluate mental models.
7.6 REFERENCE
Ashcraft, M. H. &. Radvansky, G. A. (2009). Cognition. (5th ed),
Prentice Hall, Pearson education
Francis, G., Neath, I., &VanHorn, D. (2008). Coglab 2.0 on a CD.
Wadsworth Cengage Learning, international student edition
Galotti, K.M. (2014). Cognitive Psychology: In and Out of the
Laboratory. (5thed.). Sage Publications (Indian reprint 2015)
Goldstein, E. B. (2007). Psychology of sensation and perception. New
Delhi: Cengage learning India, Indian reprint 2008
108
Matlin, M.W. (2013). Cognitive Psychology, 8thed., international Reasoning - I
student version, John Wiley & sons
Reed, S. K. (2004). Cognition: Theory and Applications. (6th ed.),
Wadsworth/ Thomson Learning
Robinson-Riegler, B., & Robinson-Riegler, G. L. (2008). Cognitive
Psychology – Applying the science of the Mind. (2nded.). Pearson
Education. New Delhi: Indian edition by Dorling Kindersley India pvt
ltd.
Srinivasan, N., Gupta, A.K., & Pandey, J. (Eds). (2008). Advances in
Cognitive Science. Volume 1, New Delhi, Sage publications
Sternberg, R.J. (2009). Applied Cognitive Psychology: Perceivnig,
Learning, and Remembering. New Delhi: Cengage learning India,
Indian reprint 2009
109
8
REASONING - II
Unit Structure
8.0 Objectives
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Inductive reasoning: Testing Hypotheses - The Four-Card Selection
Task
8.2.1 Basic Results
8.2.2 Procedural variations
8.2.3 Interpretation factors
8.2.4 Matching bias
8.2.5 Memory-cueing (availability) accounts
8.2.6 Pragmatic reasoning schemas
8.2.7 Social contract theory
8.2.8 The selection task as optimal data selection
8.3 Generating and Testing Hypotheses
8.4 Wason’s reversed 20 questions task
8.5 Simulated research environments
8.6 Summary
8.7 Questions
8.8 References
8.0 OBJECTIVES
After studying this chapter, students will be able to:
8.1 INTRODUCTION
110
“inductive reasoning is a form of reasoning in which inferences and Reasoning - II
general principles are drawn from specific observations and cases.”
111
Cognitive Psychology c.) Drinking rule: Each card has a person’s age on one side and what he
is drinking in a bar on the other side. Rule: If someone is drinking alcohol
they must be of age 18 or over.
d.) Negative abstract version: Each card has the letter A or B on one
side and the number 1 or 2 on the other side. Rule: If a card has a ‘1’ on
one side it does not have a ‘B’ on the other side.
These proposed rules or hypotheses can never be absolutely verified, but
can be falsified. Since you can verify only a limited number of instances,
there is always a possibility of encountering an instance that does not
follow the rule. For example, if we hypothesize that “Indians like
panipuri”, we may verify this with several Indians ; however there is
always a possibility of encountering an Indian who does not like panipuri.
So, it is not possible to absolutely verify the rule, but if a person does not
like panipuri, it is easy to falsify the rule. This is the general characteristic
of universal hypotheses. Philosopher Karl Popper (1959) has emphasized
on the logic of falsifying hypotheses.
In vase of above task, for examplethe rule, ‘If vowel on one side, then
even number on the other side’, can be tested by using the cards showing
‘E’ and ‘7’ because they could falsify the rule(if E does not have an even
number on the other side and if 7 has a vowel on the other side). The ‘4’
and the ‘K’ cards may be left unturned since whatever is on their other
sides would be consistent with given rule.
8.2.1Basic results
While testing the conditional rule ‘if p then q’ there can be four
possibilities as shown in following boxes -
In these four possibilities only the second one ‘p and not q’ is not in
consonance with the rule, rest of them are in accordance to the rule. It has
been observed in studies that when participants are asked to test the given
conditional rule ‘if p then q’ on a four card task, they very frequently
choose the first option, i.e., ‘p, q’ instead of ‘p, not q’. The reason is that
people tend to be biased towards verification or confirmation, so they tend
to choose potentially confirming card (p, q) and ignore the potentially
falsifying card (p, not q). In other words, a card having ‘p’ on face may
have ‘q’ on the reverse side (potentially confirming) or it may have ‘not q’
which is potentially falsifying. They understand that if a card having ‘not
q’ on face has ‘p’ on the reverse side will falsify the rule and yet they tend
to choose a card with ‘p’ on face side.
112
strictly ‘Vowel – even number’ cards as shown below. These cards had Reasoning - II
lots of possible combinations but that did not create any confusion in the
minds of the participants.
A E 4 7
“If a card has a vowel on one side, then it must have an even number on
the other side ”Which cards must be turned over to test this rule?
Later,Wason and Johnson-Laird (1970) thought that may be participants
were confused with the expression ‘ the other side of the card’ in the
instructions and might have interpreted it to mean ‘the side face
downward’. So, they conducted another experiment, in which they
presented cards that had all the information on one side and used masks to
hide the appropriate part of the card. The results were no different from
the previous experiment. So they conducted another experiment in which
the instructions were changed and participants were asked to pick up a
card which ‘could break the rule’. Still there was no change in the
performance of the participants.
However, when Wason and Shapiro (1971) conducted another research by
using concrete material on the cards instead of abstract material, they
found the results were different from the previous experiments. In the
experiment with concrete material, participants were given information
about four journeys. Cards carried the names of the destination towns, on
one side, and the mode of the transport on the other side. For example –
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Cognitive Psychology
Sealed Not sealed 4 penny stamp 5 penny
stamp
A D 5 7
Many psychologists argued that Wason’s four card task has lot of
ambiguity. It is possible that participants make interpretations that are
different from what was intended but while giving reasons for their
interpretation they give correct reasons.
114
case of abstract rule, when participants are thinking of the right answer to Reasoning - II
a task, they will not use such plausible checks while reversing the abstract
rule. In abstract rule p and q appears to be logical if it is reversed to q and
p. For the same reason, participants were found to perform better on
drinking rule task mentioned above.
The task was to indicate the card that definitely needed to be turned over
to determine whether the rule was being violated. The results showed that
75 percent participants made right choices. This supported the memory-
cueing proposition.
8.2.6 Pragmatic Reasoning Schemas
115
Cognitive Psychology They argued that people solve the real-world versions of the task using
pragmatic reasoning schemas which are not so abstract. They suggested
that though there are many types of schemas, the crux of four card
problem is the ‘permission schema’. Permission schema basically means
‘If a person satisfies condition A, they have permission to carry out action
B’. They believed that if permission schema is activated, it will improve
performance in a four-card task.
116
problems that are very important for the survival of many generations. She Reasoning - II
concluded from her research that social contract cannot evolve or sustain
in a social group unless the cognitive machinery of the participants allows
a potential cooperator to detect individuals who cheat, so that they can be
excluded from future interactions in which they would exploit cooperators.
A cheater can be defined as an individual who accepts a benefit without
satisfying the requirements that provision of that benefit was made
contingent upon. For example, suppose a person who has agreed to
contribute equally to a group assignment is found to enjoy the credits of
doing the group project without working for it at all will be called a cheat.
Cosmides proposed that humans have evolved so that they possess a
‘cheat detecting algorithm’ to detect such possible cases of cheating.
Now the question arises, how this evolutionary cognitive concept fit in our
selection theory. Cosmides believed that when four card task with
thematic material fits the social contract pattern, it produces high rate of
correct(falsifying) answers. Griggs and Cox (1982) also demonstrated the
support for social contract theory. They showed that a cost has to be paid
in terms of waiting to beold enough or in terms of money before a benefit
can be taken, i.e., drinking beer.
Later on, in 1989, Cosmides compared availability and pragmatic schema
approach with social contract theory.
Cassava rule:
If a man eats cassava root, then he must have a tattoo on his face.
The cassava rule was explained in a context story as a social contract in a
tribe called the Kaluame. The cassava root is a powerful aphrodisiac that
is given only to married men and only married men are tattooed. The
elders have established the cassava rule because they strongly disapprove
117
Cognitive Psychology of sexual relations between unmarried people. Many unmarried men,
however, are tempted to cheat. Participants were asked to ensure this rule.
They were presented with four cardsindicating information about four
young Kaluame men. Each card represents one man. One side of the card
tells which food a man is eating, and the other side of the card tells
whether or not the man has a tattoo on his face. Indicate only the card(s)
you definitely need to turn over to see if any of these Kaluame men violate
the rule.
P Not -Q Not -P Q
Since cheating means taking the benefit P and not meeting the requirement
Q, subjects should select P & not-Q. In fact, about 70% of Cosmides’
subjects selected P & not-Q in this social contract problem.
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Social contract and Pragmatic schema approach Reasoning - II
Cheng &Holyoak (1985) proposed that people reason using pragmatic
reasoning schemas which are abstract knowledge structures induced from
ordinary life experiences such as “permission,” “causation,” etc.
Cosmides said that though all social contracts are ‘permissions’ not all
permissions are social contracts, since social contracts always involve
costs and benefits while permissions as a class do not always do so.
Permission rules are beneficial only when they include costs and benefits.
In other words, permission rules need to be in the form of social contract
to be effective. To prove her point of view, Cosmides conducted an
experiment in which the same rules were framed by means of background
stories as either social contracts (in which the actions were taking benefits
and the preconditions were costs to be met) or as permissions where the
same actions and preconditions were without costs or benefits to the
individuals. The results showed that falsifying choices (p and not-q) were
more frequent for the social contract version than for the permission
version (80 per cent vs. 45 per cent). Thus, it has been noted that
Cosmides’s evolutionary approach identifies rules that reliably produce
response patterns that match falsification choices (p and not-q) or if
switched will produce choices unlikely to occur in the standard abstract
version (not-p and q).
Studies conducted on social contract theory and pragmatic reasoning
schema approach have shown the effectiveness of deontic rules on four
card tasks. Deontic rules refer to obligations involving terms like should,
ought, must, etc. The very fact that people’s selection task choices are as
per deontic rules included in the social contract theory indicates that either
human brains got hardwired to special purpose mechanisms due to
evolutionary pressure or they acquire such practical knowledge in the
normal development process through general purpose learning
mechanisms.
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In this experiment, participants were told that experimenter has a rule in Reasoning - II
his mind that applies to only set of threes. Participants were given these
three numbers 2-4-6 and asked to discover the rule that experimenter had
in his mind. To do this, they had to generate a different three number
series that might or might not match with the rule. The participants were
expected to announce their rule when they were very sure that they have
got the right answer. The “2-4-6” rule the experimenter had in mind was
“any ascending sequence”. That means the correct rule was numbers in
increasing order of magnitude. In most cases, participants not only formed
hypotheses that were more restrictive, e.g., they formed hypotheses having
an intervals of 2 between increasing numbers or they formed ‘ arithmetic
series’. Not only thatbut participants kept on generating hypotheses that
were consistent with their previously set hypothesis. Very few participants
either tried out series that went against their own hypotheses or
spontaneously varied their hypotheses. This further supported Wason’s
hypothesis of confirmation bias.Wason varied the experiment a bit and
imposed a fine of 12.5 pence(money) for every incorrect rule
announcement. This made participants cautious but did not change their
confirmation bias(a tendency to seek out and attend only to information
consistent with the hypothesis while ignoring falsifying information).
Tukey (1986) differed from Wason’s conclusion that people do not behave
rationally, rather he believed that participants do behave rationally in
terms of various alternative philosophies of science. His study highlighted
that participants were either not always testing particular hypotheses on
each trial, but would quite often be examining instances ‘at random’ or
they were ‘different’ in gathering information that could lead to useful
hypotheses. In conclusion, he said that people appear to be irrational if
Popperian philosophy of science is applied to the task, but if alternative
approach to science testing is used then participants behaviour appears to
be rational and intelligible.
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Cognitive Psychology such a way that it favoured forming of wrong hypothesis in terms of object
shape. After that they were asked to test the hypothesis in various
environments. They were presented with two environments – one in which
their observations could confirm the wrong hypothesis and second in
which they could test alternative hypotheses. The idea was to see which
environment they would choose. The results showed that they did not
choose the second environment where they could test the alternative
hypotheses. They showed confirmation bias by choosing the first
environment where they could merely confirm their wrong hypothesis. But
if they got explicit information that could falsify the initial hypothesis,
they used it to reject the incorrect or wrong hypothesis. Instructions given
to either emphasizing confirmation or disconfirmation had no effect on the
participants’ behaviour.
8.6 SUMMARY
In this unit we discussed how hypotheses are tested and how hypotheses
are generated. Hypothesis testing refers to assessing hypotheses for
truth/falsity against data. Hypothesis generation refers to deriving possible
hypotheses from data for later testing. Wason’s four card selection task
was discussed in detail to describe hypothetico reasoning. Hypothetico
reasoning refers to both deductive and inductive reasoning but Wason’s
emphasis was on checking out the falsification process while assessing the
hypotheses. He used card selection tasks in various ways. Four of the main
variants were abstract version, concrete version, drinking rule, and
negative abstract version. His basic results showed that participants had
confirmation bias and ignored the falsifying data.
Along with his team, Wason further checked the variables that might lead
participants’ difficulty in making correct decisions. They suspected that
when information was presented on both sides of the cards and
instructions included the phrase ‘the other side of the card’, participants
may get confused and make mistakes. So, the information was presented
on only the front side of the card masked to hide the appropriate part of
the card. Yet they found no difference in the results in both conditions.
They further investigated what happens when the instructions emphasize
on falsification. That also did not change the performance of the
participants. However, Wason and Shapiro (1971) found significant
improvement in the performance when four card selection task was
presented in concrete version. Bracewell (1974) found that results
improved significantly when absolutely clear instructions were given,
especially in concrete version. Evans(1984) held that in abstract version,
matching bias takes place, i.e., participants simply pick the cards showing
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the symbols mentioned in the rule. Johnson-Laird et al. (1972) found that Reasoning - II
memory cueing or availability of the information from past experience
helps in making correct choices. Cheng and Holyoak’s (1985) showed the
role of permission schema and rationale given for the rule resulted in
dramatic improvement in correct answers. Cosmides(1989) believed that
human beings are evolutionary wired to have ‘cheat detecting algorithm’
and social contract pattern produce high rates of correct (falsifying)
answers. Oaksford and Chater (1994) proposed comparing null and
alternative hypotheses by using Bayes’s theorem.
Even for hypotheses generation, Wason (1960) devised a special task in
which people had to generate over restrictive hypothesis. The results
showed that people had an overwhelming tendency to keep generating
new hypotheses consistent with their initial hypothesis. Very few
participants tried out developing hypotheses that were contradictory to
their initial hypotheses or spontaneously varied their hypotheses. Even in
simulated research environment, participants showed confirmation bias.
8.7 QUESTIONS :
8.8 REFERENCES:
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Cognitive Psychology Reed, S. K. (2004). Cognition: Theory and Applications. (6th ed.),
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