Why Astrology is a Pseudoscience

Paul R. Thagard

PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 1978,
Volume One: Contributed Papers. (1978), pp. 223-234.

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 & Astrology & A Pseudoscience

Paul R. ~ h a ~ a r d '

U n i v e r s i t y o f Mi chigan-Dearborn

Most p h i l o s o p h e r s and h i s t o r i a n s o f s c i e n c e agree t h a t a s t r o l o g y i s

a pseudoscience, b u t t h e r e i s l i t t l e agreement on why i t i s a pseudo-
s c i e n c e . Answers range from m a t t e r s o f v e r i f i a b i l i t y and f a 1 s i f i a b i l -
i t y , t o q u e s t i o n s o f p r o g r e s s and Kuhnian normal s c i e n c e , t o t h e
d i f f e r e n t s o r t s o f o b j e c t i o n s r a i s e d by a l a r g e panel o f s c i e n t i s t s
r e c e n t l y o r g a n i z e d by The Humanist magazine. O f course t h e r e a r e a l s o
Feyerabendian a n a r c h i s t s and o t h e r s who say t h a t no demarcation o f
s c i e n c e from pseudoscience i s p o s s i b l e . However, I s h a l l propose a
complex c r i t e r i o n f o r d i s t i n g u i s h i n g d i s c i p l i n e s as p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c ;
t h i s c r i t e r i o n i s u n l i k e v e r i f i c a t i o n i s t and f a l s i f i c a t i o n i s t a t t e m p t s
i n t h a t i t i n t r o d u c e s s o c i a l and h i s t o r i c a l f e a t u r e s as w e l l as l o g i c a l
ones.

I b e g i n w i t h a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f a s t r o l o g y . I t would be most un-

f a i r t o e v a l u a t e a s t r o l o g y by r e f e r e n c e t o t h e d a i l y horoscopes found
i n newspapers and p o p u l a r magazines. These horoscopes d e a l o n l y w i t h
sun s i g n s , whereas a f u l l horoscope makes r e f e r e n c e t o t h e " i n f l u e n c e s "
a l s o o f t h e moon and t h e p l a n e t s , w h i l e a l s o d i s c u s s i n g t h e ascendant
s i g n and o t h e r m a t t e r s .

A s t r o l o g y d i v i d e s t h e sky i n t o t w e l v e r e g i o n s , r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e
f a m i l i a r s i g n s o f t h e Zodiac: Aquarius, L i b r a and so on. The sun s i g n
r e p r e s e n t s t h e p a r t o f t h e s k y o c c u p i e d by t h e sun a t t h e t i m e o f
b i r t h . For example, anyone b o r n between September 23 and October 22 i s
a L i b r a n . The ascendant s i g n , o f t e n assumed t o be a t l e a s t as i m p o r t a n t
as t h e sun s i g n , r e p r e s e n t s t h e p a r t o f t h e sky r i s i n g on t h e e a s t e r n
h o r i z o n a t t h e t i m e o f b i r t h , and t h e r e f o r e changes e v e r y two hours.
To d e t e r m i n e t h i s s i g n , a c c u r a t e knowledge o f t h e t i m e and p l a c e o f
b i r t h i s e s s e n t i a l . The moon and t h e p l a n e t s ( o f which t h e r e a r e f i v e
o r e i g h t depending on whether Uranus, Neptune and P l u t o a r e t a k e n i n t o
a c c o u n t ) a r e a l s o l o c a t e d by means o f c h a r t s on one o f t h e p a r t s o f t h e
Zodiac. Each p l a n e t i s s a i d t o e x e r c i s e an i n f l u e n c e i n a s p e c i a l
sphere o f human a c t i v i t y ; f o r example, Mars governs d r i v e , courage and

PSA 1978, Volume 1 , pp. 223-234

--
C o p y r i g h t @ 1978 by t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f Science A s s o c i a t i o n
d a r i n g , w h i l e Venus governs l o v e and a r t i s t i c endeavor. The imnense
number o f combinations o f sun, ascendant, moon and p l a n e t a r y i n f l u e n c e s
a l l e g e d l y determines human p e r s o n a l i t y , b e h a v i o r and f a t e .

A s t r o l o g y i s an a n c i e n t p r a c t i c e , and appears t o have i t s o r i g i n s i n

Chaldea, thousands o f y e a r s B.C. By 700 B.C., t h e Zodiac was e s t a b -
l i s h e d , and a few c e n t u r i e s l a t e r t h e s i g n s o f t h e Zodiac were v e r y
s i m i l a r t o c u r r e n t ones. The conquests o f Alexander t h e Great b r o u g h t
a s t r o l o g y t o Greece, and t h e Romans were exposed i n t u r n . A s t r o l o g y was
v e r y p o p u l a r d u r i n g t h e f a l l o f t h e Republic, w i t h many n o t a b l e s such as
J u l i u s Caesar h a v i n g t h e i r horoscopes c a s t . However, t h e r e was o p p o s i -
t i o n from such men as L u c r e t i u s and C i c e r o .

A s t r o l o g y underwent a g r a d u a l c o d i f i c a t i o n c u l m i n a t i v g i n P t o l e m y l s
T e t r a b i b l o s [ 2 0 ] , w r i t t e n i n t h e second c e n t u r y A.D. T h i s work d e s c r i b e s
i n g r e a t d e t a i l t h e powers o f t h e sun, moon and p l a n e t s , and t h e i r
s i g n i f i c a n c e i n p e o p l e ' s l i v e s . I t i s s t i l l r e c o g n i z e d as a fundamental
t e x t b o o k o f a s t r o l o g y . Ptolemy t o o k a s t r o l o g y as s e r i o u s l y as he t o o k
h i s famous work i n geography and astronomy; t h i s i s e v i d e n t f r o m t h e
i n t r o d u c t i o n f o t h e T e t r a b i b l o s , where he d i s c u s s e s two a v a i l a b l e means
o f making p r e d i c t i o n s based on t h e heavens. The f i r s t and a d m i t t e d l y
more e f f e c t i v e o f these concerns t h e r e l a t i v e movements o f t h e sun, moon
and p l a n e t s , which Ptolemy had a l r e a d t r e a t e d i n h i s c e l e b r a t e d
Almagest [ 1 9 ] . The secondary b u t s t i y l l e g i t i m a t e means o f p r e d i c t i o n i s
t h a t i n which we use t h e " n a t u r a l c h a r a c t e r " o f t h e aspects o f movement
o f heavenly bodies t o " i n v e s t i g a t e t h e changes which t h e y b r i n g about i n
t h a t which t h e y surround." ( [20], p. 3 ). He argues t h a t t h i s method o f
p r e d i c t i o n i s p o s s i b l e because o f t h e m a n i f e s t e f f e c t s o f t h e sun, moon
and p l a n e t s on t h e e a r t h , f o r example on weather and t h e t i d e s .

The European Renaissance i s h e r a l d e d f o r t h e r i s e o f modern science,

b u t o c c u l t a r t s such as a s t r o l o g y and alchemy f l o u r i s h e d as w e l l .
A r t h u r K o e s t l e r has d e s c r i b e d K e p l e r ' s i n t e r e s t i n a s t r o l o g y : n o t o n l y
d i d a s t r o l o g y p r o v i d e K e p l e r w i t h a l i v e l i h o o d , he a l s o pursued i t as a
s e r i o u s i n t e r e s t , a l t h o u g h he was s k e p t i c a l o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r analyses
of p r e v i o u s a s t r o l o g e r s ( n 3 :, pp. 244-248 ) . A s t r o l o g y was p o p u l a r
b o t h among i n t e l l e c t u a l s and t h e general p u b l i c t h r o u g h t h e seventeenth
c e n t u r y . However, a s t r o l o g y l o s t most o f t h i s p o p u l a r i t y i n t h e
e i g h t e e n t h c e n t u r y , when i t was a t t a c k e d by such f i g u r e s of t h e E n l i g h t -
enment as S w l f t [ 2 4 ] and V o l t a i r e [ 2 9 ] . Only s i n c e t h e 1 9 3 0 ' s has a s t r o l
ogy a g a i n gained a huge audience: most people t o d a y know a t l e a s t t h e i r
sun s i g n s , and a g r e a t many b e l i e v e t h a t t h e s t a r s and p l a n e t s e x e r c i s e
an i m p o r t a n t i n f l u e n c e on t h e i r l i v e s .

I n an a t t e m p t t o r e v e r s e t h i s t r e n d , B a r t Bok, Lawrence Jerome and

Paul K u r t z d r a f t e d i n 1975 a s t a t e m e n t a t t a c k i n g a s t r o l o g y ; t h e s t a t e -
ment was s i g n e d by 192 l e a d i n g s c i e n t i s t s , i n c l u d i n g 19 Nobel p r i z e
winners. The s t a t e m e n t r a i s e s t h r e e main i s s u e s : a s t r o l o g y o r i g i n a t e d
as p a r t o f a magical w o r l d view, t h e p l a n e t s a r e t o o d i s t a n t f o r t h e r e
t o be any p h y s i c a l f o u n d a t i o n f o r a s t r o l o g y , and people b e l i e v e i t
m e r e l y o u t o f l o n g i n g f o r c o m f o r t ([2], pp. 9 f . ) . None o f these
o b j e c t i o n s i s ground f o r condemning a s t r o l o g y as pseudoscience. To show
t h i s , I s h a l l b r i e f l y d i s c u s s a r t i c l e s w r i t t e n by Bok [I]and Jerome [ I 2 1
i n s u p p o r t o f t h e statement.

A c c o r d i n g t o Bok, t o work on s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s o f a s t r o l o g i c a l p r e -
d i c t i o n s i s a waste o f t i m e u n l e s s i t i s demonstrated t h a t a s t r o l o g y has
some s o r t o f p h y s i c a l f o u n d a t i o n ([I], p . 3 1 ) . He uses t h e smallness
o f g r a v i t a t i o n a l and r a d i a t i v e e f f e c t s o f t h e s t a r s and p l a n e t s t o
suggest t h a t t h e r e i s no such f o u n d a t i o n . He a l s o d i s c u s s e s t h e psy-
chology o f b e l i e f i n astrology, which i s the r e s u l t o f i n d i v i d u a l s '
d e s p e r a t i o n i n s e e k i n g s o l u t i o n s t o t h e i r s e r i o u s p e r s o n a l problems.
Jerome devotes most o f h i s a r t i c l e t o t h e o r i g i n s o f a s t r o l o g y i n t h e
m a g i c a l p r i n c i p l e o f correspondences. He c l a i m s t h a t a s t r o l o g y i s a
system o f magic r a t h e r t h a n s c i e n c e , and t h a t i t f a i l s " n o t because o f
any i n h e r e n t i n a c c u r a c i e s due t o p r e c e s s i o n o r l a c k o f e x a c t knowledge
c o n c e r n i n g t i m e o f b i r t h o r c o n c e p t i o n , b u t r a t h e r because i t s i n t e r -
p r e t a t i o n s and p r e d i c t i o n s a r e grounded i n t h e a n c i e n t s ' m a g i c a l w o r l d
v i e w . " ( [ l 2 ] , p. 46). He does however d i s c u s s some s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s o f
a s t r o l o g y , which I s h a l l r e t u r n t o below.

These o b j e c t i o n s do n o t show t h a t a s t r o l o g y i s a pseudoscience.

F i r s t , o r i g i n s a r e i r r e l e v a n t t o s c i e n t i f i c s t a t u s . The a l c h e m i c a l
o r i g i n s o f c h e m i s t r y ( [ I l l , pp. 10-18) and t h e o c c u l t b e g i n n i n g s o f medi-
c i n e [ 8 ] a r e as m a g i c a l as t h o s e o f a s t r o l o g y , and h i s t o r i a n s have d e t e c t e d
m y s t i c a l i n f l u e n c e s i n t h e work o f many g r e a t s c i e n t i s t s , i n c l u d i n g
Newton and E i n s t e i n . Hence a s t r o l o g y cannot be condemned s i m p l y f o r t h e
m a g i c a l o r i g i n s o f i t s p r i n c i p l e s . S i m i l a r l y , t h e psychology o f p o p u l a r
b e l i e f i s a l s o i n i t s e l f i r r e l e v a n t t o t h e s t a t u s o f a s t r o l o g y : people
o f t e n b e l i e v e even good t h e o r i e s f o r i l l e g i t i m a t e reasons, and even i f
most p e o p l e b e l i e v e a s t r o ogy f o r p e r s o n a l , i r r a t i o n a l reasons, good
reasons may be a v a i l a b l e . $ F i n a l l y t h e l a c k o f a p h y s i c a l f o u n d a t i o n
h a r d l y marks a t h e o r y as u n s c i e n t i f i c ( [ 2 2 j , p. 2 ) . Examples: when
Wegener [ 3 1 ] proposed c o n t i n e n t a l d r i f t , no mechanism was known, and a l i n k
between smoking and cancer has been e s t a b l i s h e d s t a t i s t i c a l l y [281 though
t h e d e t a i l s o f c a r c i n o g e n e s i s remain t o be d i s c o v e r e d . Hence t h e o b j e c -
t i o n s o f Bok, Jerome and K u r t z f a i l t o mark a s t r o l o g y as pseudoscience.

Now we must c o n s i d e r t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e c r i t e r i a o f v e r i f i a b i l i t y
and f a l s i f i a b i l i t y t o a s t r o l o g y . Roughly, a t h e o r y i s s a i d t o be v e r i -
f i a b l e i f i t i s p o s s i b l e t o deduce o b s e r v a t i o n s t a t e m e n t s from i t . Then
i n p r i n c i p l e , o b s e r v a t i o n s can be used t o c o n f i r m o r d i s c o n f i r m t h e
t h e o r y . A t h e o r y i s s c i e n t i f i c o n l y i f i t i s v e r i f i a b l e . The v i c i s s i -
t u d e s o f t h e v e r i f i c a t i o n p r i n c i p l e a r e t o o w e l l known t o r e c o u n t h e r e
.
([g], ch. 4 ) A t t e m p t s by A. J. Ayer t o a r t i c u l a t e t h e p r i n c i p l e f a i l e d
e i t h e r by r u l i n g o u t most o f s c i e n c e as u n s c i e n t i f i c , o r by r u l i n g o u t
n o t h i n g . Moreover, t h e t h e o r y / o b s e r v a t i o n d i s t i n c t i o n has i n c r e a s i n g l y
come i n t o q u e s t i o n . A l l t h a t remains i s a vague sense t h a t t e s t a b i l i t y
somehow i s a mark o f s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r i e s ([9], c h . 4; @q, pp. 30-32 ) .
W e l l , a s t r o l o g y & v a g u e l y t e s t a b l e . Because o f t h e m u l t i t u d e o f
i n f l u e n c e s r e s t i n g on t e n d e n c i e s r a t h e r t h a n l a w s , a s t r o l o g y i s
i n c a p a b l e o f making p r e c i s e p r e d i c t i o n s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , a t t e m p t s have
been made t o t e s t t h e r e a l i t y o f t h e s e a l l e g e d t e n d e n c i e s , u s i n g l a r g e
s c a l e surveys and s t a t i s t i c a l e v a l u a t i o n . The p i o n e e r i n t h i s area was
M i c h e l Gauquelin, who examine0 t h e c a r e e r s and t i m e s o f b i r t h o f 25,000
Frenchmen. A s t r o l o g y suggests t h a t people b o r n under c e r t a i n s i g n s o r
p l a n e t s a r e 1 ik e l y t o adopt c e r t a i n o c c u p a t i o n s : f o r example, t h e
i n f l u e n c e o f t h e w a r l i k e p l a n e t Mars tends t o produce s o l d i e r s o r
a t h l e t e s , w h i l e Venus has an a r t i s t i c i n f l u e n c e . N o t a b l y , Gauquel i n
found no s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n between c a r e e r s and e i t h e r sun s i g n ,
moon s i g n , o r ascendant s i g n . However, he d i d f i n d some s t a t i s t i c a l l y
i n t e r e s t i n g c o r r e l a t i o n s between c e r t a i n o c c u p a t i o n s o f p e o p l e and t h e
p o s i t i o n o f c e r t a i n p l a n e t s a t t h e t i m e o f t h e i r b i r t h . (151, ch. 11,
[ 6 ] ). For example, j u s t as a s t r o l o g y would suggest, t h e r e i s a g r e a t e r

t h a n chance a s s o c i a t i o n o f a t h l e t e s and Mars, and a g r e a t e r t h a n chance

a s s o c i a t i o n o f s c i e n t i s t s and Saturn, where t h e p l a n e t i s r i s i n g o r a t

i t s z e n i t h a t t h e moment o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l ' s b i r t h .

These f i n d i n g s and t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n a r e h i g h l y c o n t r o v e r s i a l , as
a r e subsequent s t u d i e s i n a s i m i l a r v e i n 1 . Even i f c o r r e c t , t h e y
hardly v e r i f y astrology, e s p e c i a l l y considering the negative r e s u l t s
found f o r t h e most i m p o r t a n t a s t r o l o g i c a l c a t e g o r i e s . I have mentioned
Gauquelin i n o r d e r t o suggest t h a t t h r o u g h t h e use o f s t a t i s t i c a l
t e c h n i q u e s a s t r o l o g y i s a t l e a s t v e r i f i a b l e . Hence t h e v e r i f i c a t i o n
p r i n c i p l e does n o t mark a s t r o l o g y as pseudoscience.

Because t h e p r e d i c t i o n s o f a s t r o l o g e r s a r e g e n e r a l l y vague, a
Popperian would a s s e r t t h a t t h e r e a l problem w i t h a s t r o l o g y i s t h a t i t
i s n o t f a l s i f i a b l e : a s t r o l o g e r s can n o t make p r e d i c t i o n s which i f un-
f u l f i l l e d would l e a d them t o g i v e up t h e i r t h e o r y . Hence because i t i s
unfalsifiable, astrology i s unscientific.

But t h e d o c t r i n e o f f a 1 s i f i a b i l i t y faces s e r i o u s problems as des-

c r i b e d by Duhem [ 4 ] , Q u i n e [ 2 1 ] , and Lakatos [ 1 5 ] . Popper h i m s e l f n o t i c e d
e a r l y t h a t no o b s e r v a t i o n e v e r guarantees f a l s i f i c a t i o n : a t h e o r y can
always be r e t a i n e d by i n t r o d u c i n g o r m o d i f y i n g a u x i l i a r hypotheses, and
even o b s e r v a t i o n statements a r e n o t i n c o r r i g i b l e 1,
(07 p. 50 ),
M e t h o d o l o g i c a l d e c i s i o n s about what can be tampered w i t h a r e r e q u i r e d t o
b l o c k t h e escape from f a l s i f i c a t i o n . However, Lakatos has p e r s u a s i v e l y
argued t h a t making such d e c i s i o n i n advance o f t e s t s i s a r b i t r a r y and
may o f t e n l e a d t o o v e r h a s t y r e j e c t i o n o f a sound t h e o r y which * t o
be be saved by a n t i - f a l s i f i c a t i o n i s t strategems ([15], pp. 112 f f . ) .
F a l s i f i c a t i o n o n l y occurs when a b e t t e r t h e o r y comes a l o n g . Then
f a l s i f i a b i l i t y i s o n l y a m a t t e r o f r e p l a c e a b i l i t y by a n o t h e r t h e o r y , and
s i n c e a s t r o l o g y i s i n p r i n c i p l e r e p l a c e a b l e by a n o t h e r t h e o r y , f a l s i -
f i a b i l i t y p r o v i d e s no c r i t e r i o n f o r r e j e c t i n g a s t r o l o g y as pseudo-
s c i e n t i f i c . We saw i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f Gauquelin t h a t a s t r o l o g y can be
used t o make p r e d i c t i o n s about s t a t i s t i c a l r e g u l a r i t i e s , b u t t h e non-
e x i s t e n c e o f t h e s e r e g u l a r i t i e s does n o t f a l s i f y a s t r o l o g y ; b u t here
a s t r o l o g y does n o t appear worse t h a n t h e b e s t o f s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r j e s ,
which a l s o r e s i s t f a l s i f i c a t i o n u n t i l a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o r i e s a r i s e .

A s t r o l o g y can n o t be condemned as p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c on t h e grounds

proposed by v e r i f i c a t i o n i s t s , f a l s i f i c a t i o n i s t s , o r Bok and Jerome.

But u n d o u b t e d l y a s t r o l o g y t o d a y faces a g r e a t many u n s o l v e d problems

([32], ch. 5 ) . One i s t h e n e g a t i v e r e s u l t found by Gauquelin c o n c e r n i n g
c a r e e r s and s i g n s . Another i s t h e problem o f t h e p r e c e s s i o n o f t h e
equinoxes, which a s t r o l o g e r s g e n e r a l l y t a k e i n t o account when h e r a l d i n g
t h e "Age o f A q u a r i u s " b u t t o t a l l y n e g l e c t when f i g u r i n g t h e i r c h a r t s .
A s t r o l o g e r s do n o t always agree on t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e t h r e e
p l a n e t s , Neptune, Uranus and P l u t o , t h a t were d i s c o v e r e d s i n c e Ptolemy.
S t u d i e s o f t w i n s do n o t show s i m i l a r i t i e s o f p e r s o n a l i t y and f a t e t h a t
a s t r o l o g y would suggest. Nor does a s t r o l o g y make sense o f mass d i s a s -
t e r s , where numerous i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h v e r y d i f f e r e n t horoscopes come t o
s i m i l a r ends.

B u t problems such as t h e s e do n o t i n themselves show t h a t a s t r o l o g y

i s e i t h e r f a l s e o r p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c . Even t h e b e s t t h e o r i e s f a c e
u n s o l v e d problems t h r o u g h o u t t h e i r h i s t o r y . To g e t a c r i t e r i o n demar-
c a t i n g a s t r o l o g y from s c i e n c e , we need t o c o n s i d e r i t i n a w i d e r h i s t o r -
i c a l and s o c i a l c o n t e x t .

A d e m a r c a t i o n c r i t e r i o n r e q u i r e s a m a t r i x o f t h r e e elements: [ t h e o r y ,
community, h i s t o r i c a l c o n t e x t ] . Under t h e f i r s t heading, " t h e o r y " , f a 1 1
f a m i l i a r m a t t e r s o f s t r u c t u r e , p r e d i c t i o n , e x p l a n a t i o n and problem
s o l v i n g . We m i g h t a l s o i n c l u d e t h e i s s u e r a i s e d by Bok and Jerome about
whether t h e t h e o r y has a p h y s i c a l f o u n d a t i o n . P r e v i o u s d e m a r c a t i o n i s t s
have c o n c e n t r a t e d on t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l element, e v i d e n t i n t h e concern o f
t h e v e r i f i c a t i o n and f a 1 s i f i c a t i o n p r i n c i p l e s w i t h p r e d i c t i o n . B u t we
have seen t h a t t h i s approach i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t f o r c h a r a c t e r i z i n g
a s t r o l o g y as p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c .

We must a l s o c o n s i d e r t h e community o f advocates o f t h e t h e o r y , i n

t h i s case t h e community o f p r a c t i t i o n e r s o f a s t r o l o g y . Several ques-
t i o n s a r e i m p o r t a n t h e r e . F i r s t , a r e t h e p r a c t i t i o n e r s i n agreement on
t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e t h e o r y and on how t o go a b o u t s o l v i n g problems
w h i c h t h e t h e o r y f a c e s ? Second, do t h e y care, t h a t i s , a r e t h e y con-
cerned a b o u t e x p l a i n i n g anomalies and comparing t h e success o f t h e i r
theory t o the record o f other theories? Third, are the practitioners
a c t i v e l y i n v o l v e d i n a t t e m p t s a t c o n f i r m i n g and d i s c o n f i r m i n g t h e i r
theory?

The q u e s t i o n a b o u t comparing t h e success o f a t h e o r y w i t h t h a t o f

o t h e r t h e o r i e s i n t r o d u c e s t h e t h i r d element o f t h e m a t r i x , h i s t o r i c a l
c o n t e x t . The h i s t o r i c a l work o f Kuhn and o t h e r s has shown t h a t i n
g e n e r a l a t h e o r y i s r e j e c t e d o n l y when ( 1 ) i t has f a c e d anomalies o v e r
a l o n g p e r i o d o f t i m e and ( 2 ) i t has been c h a l l e n g e d by a n o t h e r t h e o r y .
Hence under t h e heading o f h i s t o r i c a l c o n t e x t we must c o n s i d e r two
f a c t o r s r e l e v a n t t o demarcation: t h e r e c o r d o f a t h e o r y o v e r t i m e i n
e x p l a i n i n g new f a c t s and d e a l i n g w i t h anomalies, and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f
alternative theories.

We can now propose t h e f o l l o w i n g p r i n c i p l e o f d e m a r c a t i o n :

A t h e o r y o r d i s c i p l i n e w h i c h p u r p o r t s t o be s c i e n t i f i c i s

p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c i f and o n l y i f :

 1) i t has been l e s s p r o g r e s s i v e t h a n a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o r i e s o v e r a
l o n g p e r i o d o f t i m e , and faces many unsolved problems; b u t
2) t h e community o f p r a c t i t i o n e r s makes l i t t l e a t t e m p t t o develop
t h e t h e o r y towards s o l u t i o n s o f t h e problems, shows no concern
f o r a t t e m p t s t o e v a l u a t e t h e t h e o r y i n r e l a t i o n t o o t h e r s , and
i s s e l e c t i v e i n c o n s i d e r i n g c o n f i r m a t i o n s and d i s c o n f i r m a t i o n s .

Progressiveness i s a m a t t e r o f t h e success o f t h e t h e o r y i n adding t o

i t s s e t o f f a c t s e x p l a i n e d and problems s o l v e d ( [ I s ] , p . 118; c f .
[261, P. 83 1.

T h i s p r i n c i p l e c a p t u r e s , I b e l i e v e , what i s most i m p o r t a n t l y unscien-

t i f i c about astrology. F i r s t , astrology i s d r a m a t i c a l l y unprogressive,
i n t h a t i t has changed l i t t l e and has added n o t h i n g t o i t s e x p l a n a t o r y
power s i n c e t h e t i m e o f Ptolemy. Second, problems such as t h e preces-
s i o n o f equinoxes a r e o u t s t a n d i n g . T h i r d , t h e r e a r e a l t e r n a t i v e
t h e o r i e s o f p e r s o n a l i t y and b e h a v i o r a v a i l a b l e : one need n o t be an
u n c r i t i c a l advocate o f b e h a v i o r i s t , Freudian, or G e s t a l t t h e o r i e s t o see
t h a t s i n c e t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y p s y c h o l o g i c a l t h e o r i e s have been
expanding t o d e a l w i t h many o f t h e phenomena which a s t r o l o g y e x p l a i n s i n
terms o f heavenly i n f l u e n c e s . The i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i s n o t t h a t any o f
these psychological theories i s established o r t r u e , o n l y t h a t they a r e
growing a l t e r n a t i v e s t o a l o n g - s t a t i c a s t r o l o g y . F o u r t h and f i n a l l y ,
t h e community o f a s t r o l o g e r s i s g e n e r a l l y unconcerned w i t h advancing
a s t r o l o g y t o d e a l w i t h o u t s t a n d i n g problems o r w i t h e v a l u a t i n g t h e
t h e o r y i n r e l a t i o n t o o t h e r s . 4 For t h e s e reasons, my c r i t e r i o n marks
a s t r o l o g y as p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c .

T h i s demarcation c r i t e r i o n d i f f e r s from t h o s e i m p l i c i t i n Lakatos and

Kuhn. Lakatos has s a i d t h a t what makes a s e r i e s o f t h e o r i e s c o n s t i t u t -
i n g a r e s e a r c h program s c i e n t i f i c i s t h a t i t i s p r o g r e s s i v e : each
t h e o r y i n t h e s e r i e s has g r e a t e r c o r r o b o r a t e d c o n t e n t t h a n i t s prede-
cessor ([151, p. 118 ). W h i l e I agree w i t h Lakatos t h a t p r o g r e s s i v e -
ness i s a c e n t r a l n o t i o n here, i t i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o d i s t i n g u i s h
s c i e n c e from pseudoscience. We s h o u l d n o t brand a n o n p r o g r e s s i v e d i s -
c i p l i n e as p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c u n l e s s i t i s b e i n g m a i n t a i n e d a g a i n s t more
p r o g r e s s i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s . Kuhn's d i s c u s s i o n o f a s t r o l o g y focuses on a
d i f f e r e n t aspect o f my c r i t e r i o n . He says t h a t what makes a s t r o l o g y
u n s c i e n t i f i c i s t h e absence o f t h e paradigm-dominated p u z z l e s o l v i n g
a c t i v i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f what he c a l l s normal s c i e n c e ([14], p. 9 1.
B u t as Watkins has suggested, a s t r o l o g e r s a r e i n some r e s p e c t s model
normal s c i e n t i s t s : t h e y concern themselves w i t h s o l v i n g p u z z l e s a t t h e
l e v e l o f i n d i v i d u a l horoscopes, unconcerned w i t h t h e f o u n d a t i o n s o f
t h e i r general t h e o r y o r paradigm ([30], p. 32 ). Hence t h a t f e a t u r e o f
normal s c i e n c e does n o t d i s t i n g u i s h s c i e n c e from pseudoscience. What
makes a s t r o l o g y p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c i s n o t t h a t i t l a c k s p e r i o d s o f Kuhnian
normal s c i e n c e , b u t t h a t i t s proponents adopt u n c r i t i c a l a t t i t u d e s o f
"normal" s c i e n t i s t s d e s p i t e t h e e x i s t e n c e o f more p r o g r e s s i v e a l t e r n a -
t i v e t h e o r i e s . (Note t h a t I am n o t a g r e e i n g w i t h Popper [ I 8 1 t h a t
Kuhn's normal s c i e n t i s t s a r e u n s c i e n t i f i c ; t h e y can become u n s c i e n t i f i c
o n l y when an a1 t e r n a t i v e paradigm has been developed.) However, ifOne
looks not a t the puzzle solving a t the l e v e l of p a r t i c u l a r astrological
p r e d i c t i o n s , b u t a t t h e l e v e l o f t h e o r e t i c a l problems such as t h e p r e -
c e s s i o n o f t h e equinoxes, t h e r e i s some agreement between my c r i t e r i o n
and Kuhn's; a s t r o l o g e r s do n o t have a paradigm-induced c o n f i d e n c e about
s o l v i n g t h e o r e t i c a l problems.

O f course, t h e c r i t e r i o n i s i n t e n d e d t o have a p p l i c a t i o n s beyond

a s t r o l o g y . I t h i n k t h a t d i s c u s s i o n would show t h a t t h e c r i t e r i o n marks
as p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c such p r a c t i c e s as w i t c h c r a f t and pyramidology, w h i l e
l e a v i n g contemporary p h y s i c s , c h e m i s t r y and b i o l o g y u n t h r e a t e n e d . The
c u r r e n t f a d o f biorhythms, i m p l a u s i b l y based l i k e a s t r o l o g y on d a t e o f
b i r t h , can n o t be branded as p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c because we l a c k a l t e r n a -
t i v e t h e o r i e s g i v i n g more d e t a i l e d accounts o f c y c l i c a l v a r i a t i o n s i n
human b e i n g s , a l t h o u g h much r e s e a r c h i s i n p r o g r e s s . 5

One i n t e r e s t i n g consequence o f t h e above c r i t e r i o n i s t h a t a t h e o r y

can be s c i e n t i f i c a t one t i m e b u t p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c a t a n o t h e r . I n t h e
t i m e o f Ptolemy o r even K e p l e r , a s t r o l o g y had few a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t h e
e x p l a n a t i o n o f human p e r s o n a l i t y and b e h a v i o r . E x i s t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s
were s c a r c e l y more s o p h i s t i c a t e d o r c o r r o b o r a t e d t h a n a s t r o l o g y . Hence
a s t r o l o g y s h o u l d be judged as n o t p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c i n c l a s s i c a l o r
Renaissance t i m e s , even though i t i s p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c t o d a y . A s t r o l o g y
was n o t s i m p l y a p e r v e r s e s i d e l i n e o f Ptolemy and K e p l e r , b u t p a r t o f
t h e i r s c i e n t i f i c a c t i v i t y , even i f a p h y s i c i s t i n v o l v e d w i t h a s t r o l o g y
t o d a y s h o u l d be l o o k e d a t askance. Only when t h e h i s t o r i c a l and s o c i a l
aspects o f s c i e n c e a r e n e g l e c t e d does i t become p l a u s i b l e t h a t pseudo-
s c i e n c e i s an unchanging c a t e g o r y . R a t i o n a l i t y i s n o t a p r o p e r t y o f
i d e a s e t e r n a l l y : i d e a s , l i k e a c t i o n s , can be r a t i o n a l a t t i m e b u t
i r r a t i o n a l a t o t h e r s . Hence r e 1 a t i v i z i n g t h e science/pseudoscience
d i s t i n c t i o n t o h i s t o r i c a l periods i s a desirable r e s u l t .

B u t t h e r e remains a c h a l l e n g i n g h i s t o r i c a l problem. A c c o r d i n g t o my
c r i t e r i o n , a s t r o l o g y o n l y became p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c w i t h t h e r i s e o f
modern psychology i n t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y . B u t a s t r o l o g y was a l r e a d y
v i r t u a l l y e x c i s e d from s c i e n t i f i c c i r c l e s by t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e
e i g h t e e n t h . How c o u l d t h i s be? The s i m p l e answer i s t h a t a t h e o r y can
t a k e on t h e appearance o f an u n p r o m i s i n g p r o j e c t w e l l b e f o r e i t deserves
t h e l a b e l o f pseudoscience. The Copernican r e v o l u t i o n and t h e mechanism
o f Newton, Descartes and Hobbes undermined t h e p l a u s i b i l i t y o f a s t r o l -
ogy.6 Lynn T h o r n d i k e [27] has d e s c r i b e d how t h e Newtonian t h e o r y
pushed a s i d e what had been accepted as a u n i v e r s a l n a t u r a l l a w , t h a t
i n f e r i o r s such as i n h a b i t a n t s o f e a r t h a r e r u l e d and governed by supe-
r i o r s such as t h e s t a r s and t h e p l a n e t s . W i l l i a m Stahlman [23] has
d e s c r i b e d how t h e immense growth o f s c i e n c e i n t h e s e v e n t e e n t h c e n t u r y
c o n t r a s t e d w i t h s t a g n a t i o n o f a s t r o l o g y . These developments p r o v i d e d
good reasons f o r d i s c a r d i n g a s t r o l o g y as a p r o m i s i n g p u r s u i t , b u t t h e y
were n o t y e t enough t o brand i t as p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c , o r even t o r e f u t e
it.

Because o f i t s s o c i a l a s p e c t , my c r i t e r i o n m i g h t suggest a k i n d o f
c u l t u r a l r e l a t i v i s m . Suppose t h e r e i s an i s o l a t e d group o f a s t r o l o g e r s
i n t h e j u n g l e s o f South America, p r a c t i c i n g t h e i r a r t w i t h no awareness
o f a l t e r n a t i v e s . Are we t o say t h a t a s t r o l o g y i s f o r them s c i e n t i f i c ?
Or, g o i n g i n t h e o t h e r d i r e c t i o n , s h o u l d we c o u n t as a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o -
r i e s ones which a r e a v a i l a b l e t o e x t r a t e r r e s t r i a l beings, o r w h i c h
someday w i l l be conceived? T h i s wide c o n s t r u a l o f " a l t e r n a t i v e " would
have t h e r e s u l t t h a t o u r b e s t c u r r e n t t h e o r i e s a r e p r o b a b l y pseudo-
s c i e n t i f i c . These two q u e s t i o n s employ, r e s p e c t i v e 1 y , a t o o narrow and
a t o o broad view o f a l t e r n a t i v e s . By an a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o r y I mean one
g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e i n t h e w o r l d . T h i s assumes f i r s t t h a t t h e r e i s some
k i n d o f communication network t o which a community has, o r s h o u l d have,
access. Second, i t assumes t h a t t h e onus i s on i n d i v i d u a l s and com-
m u n i t i e s t o f i n d o u t about a l t e r n a t i v e s . I would argue (perhaps a g a i n s t
Kuhn) t h a t t h i s second assumption i s a g e n e r a l f e a t u r e o f r a t i o n a l i t y ;
i t i s a t l e a s t s u f f i c i e n t t o p r e c l u d e o s t r i c h i s m as a defense a g a i n s t
b e i n g judged p s e u d o s c i e n t i f i c .

I n c o n c l u s i o n , I would l i k e t o say why I t h i n k t h e q u e s t i o n o f what

c o n s t i t u t e s a pseudoscience i s i m p o r t a n t . U n l i k e t h e l o g i c a l p o s i t i v -
i s t s , I am n o t g r i n d i n g an a n t i - m e t a p h y s i c a l ax, a d u n l i k e Popper, I am
n o t g r i n d i n g an a n t i - F r e u d i a n o r a n t i - M a r x i a n one.? My concern i s
s o c i a l : s o c i e t y faces t h e t w i n problems o f l a c k o f p u b l i c concern w i t h
t h e advancement o f s c i e n c e , and l a c k o f p u b l i c concern w i t h t h e impor-
t a n t e t h i c a l i s s u e s now a r i s i n g i n s c i e n c e and t e c h n o l o g y , f o r example
around t h e t o p i c o f g e n e t i c e n g i n e e r i n g . One reason f o r t h i s dual l a c k
o f concern i s t h e wide p o p u l a r i t y o f pseudoscience and t h e o c c u l t among
t h e general p u b l i c . E l u c i d a t i o n o f how s c i e n c e d i f f e r s from pseudo-
s c i e n c e i s t h e p h i l o s o p h i c a l s i d e o f an a t t e m p t t o overcome p u b l i c
n e g l e c t o f genuine s c i e n c e .

' 1 am g r a t e f u l t o Dan Hausman and E l i a s Baumgarten f o r comments

o ow ever , a s t r o l o g y would doubt1 e s s l y have many fewer s u p p o r t e r s i f

horoscopes tended l e s s toward compliments and p l e a s a n t p r e d i c t i o n s and
more toward t h e k i n d o f a n a l y s i s i n c l u d e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s a t i r i c a l
horoscope from t h e December, 1977, i s s u e o f Mother Jones: VIRGO (Aug.
23-Sept. 2 2 ) . You a r e t h e l o g i c a l t y p e and h a t e d i s o r d e r . T h i s n i t -
p i c k i n g i s s i c k e n i n g t o y o u r f r i e n d s . You a r e c o l d and unemotional and
sometimes f a l l a s l e e p w h i l e making l o v e . V i r g o s make good bus d r i v e r s .
3 ~ o ar n account o f t h e comparative e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e o r i e s , see [ ? 6 ] .

4 ~ h e r eappear t o be a few e x c e p t i o n s ; see [32].

5 ~ h ef a d o f b i o r h y t h m s , now assuming a p l a c e b e s i d e a s t r o l o g y i n t h e
p o p u l a r press, must be d i s t i n g u i s h e d from t h e v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g work o f
Frank Brown and o t h e r s on b i o l o g i c a l rhythms. For a survey, see 151.

6 ~ l a u s i b i l i t yi s i n p a r t a m a t t e r o f a h y p o t h e s i s b e i n g of an appro-
p r i a t e kind, and i s r e l e v a n t even t o t h e acceptance o f a t h e o r y . See
[26], p. 90, and [25].
 'on p s y c h o a n a l y s i s see 131. I would argue t h a t C i o f f i n e g l e c t s t h e
q u e s t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s t o p s y c h o a n a l y s i s and t h e q u e s t i o n o f i t s
progressiveness .
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Why Astrology is a Pseudoscience
Paul R. Thagard
PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 1978,
Volume One: Contributed Papers. (1978), pp. 223-234.
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References

21
Main Trends in Recent Philosophy: Two Dogmas of Empiricism
W. V. Quine
The Philosophical Review, Vol. 60, No. 1. (Jan., 1951), pp. 20-43.
Stable URL:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0031-8108%28195101%2960%3A1%3C20%3AMTIRPT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-P

23
Astrology in Colonial America: An Extended Query
William D. Stahlman
The William and Mary Quarterly, 3rd Ser., Vol. 13, No. 4. (Oct., 1956), pp. 551-563.
Stable URL:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0043-5597%28195610%293%3A13%3A4%3C551%3AAICAAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-9

26
The Best Explanation: Criteria for Theory Choice
Paul R. Thagard
The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 75, No. 2. (Feb., 1978), pp. 76-92.
Stable URL:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-362X%28197802%2975%3A2%3C76%3ATBECFT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-T

27
The True Place of Astrology in the History of Science
Lynn Thorndike
Isis, Vol. 46, No. 3. (Sep., 1955), pp. 273-278.
Stable URL:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0021-1753%28195509%2946%3A3%3C273%3ATTPOAI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-4
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