Lecture 5

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Constructing Hypotheses

Definition of a hypothesis
• A hypothesis is a statement that can be tested by
scientific research.

• If you want to test a relationship between two or


more variables, you need to write hypotheses before
you start your experiment or data collection.

• Hypotheses bring focus to the research problem in


quantitative research
What is a hypothesis
• A hypothesis states your predictions about what your
research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research
question that has not yet been tested. For some research
projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that
address different aspects of your research question.

• A hypothesis is not just a guess – it should be based on


existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable,
which means you can support or refute it through scientific
research methods (such as experiments, observations and
statistical analysis of data).
Variables in hypotheses
• An independent variable is something the researcher changes
or controls.
• A dependent variable is something the researcher observes
and measures.
• If there are any control variables, extraneous variables, or
confounding variables, be sure to jot those down as you go to
minimize the chances that research bias will affect your
results.

• Example: Hypothesis
• Daily exposure to the sun leads to increased levels of
happiness.
Functions of a hypothesis
• The formulation of a hypothesis brings specificity and clarity
to a study.
• This specificity and clarity used to construct a hypothesis
ensures that only information needed is collected, thereby,
providing focus to the study. This also enhances the validity
of a study as it ensures measuring what the study sets out to
measure.
• As it provides a focus, the construction of a hypothesis
enhances objectivity in a study.
• The testing of a hypothesis enables the researcher to
specifically conclude what is true or what is false, thereby,
contributing towards theory formulation.
The process of testing a hypothesis
How to formulate a hypothesis
• A hypothesis should be simple, specific and
conceptually clear
• A hypothesis should be capable of verification
• A hypothesis should be related to the existing body
of knowledge
• A hypothesis should be measurable

Example: The average age of male students in this class


is higher than that of the female students.
How to formulate a hypothesis
Step 1. Ask a question
Writing a hypothesis begins with a research question that you want to
answer.
Example: Do students who attend more lectures get better exam
results?

Step 2. Do some preliminary research


Your initial answer to the question should be based on what is already
known about the topic. Look for theories and previous studies to help
you form educated assumptions about what your research will find.

Step 3. Formulate your hypothesis


Now you should have some idea of what you expect to find. Write your
initial answer to the question in a clear, concise sentence.
Example: Attending more lectures leads to better exam results.
How to formulate a hypothesis
Step 4. Refine your hypothesis
You need to make sure your hypothesis is specific and testable. There
are various ways of phrasing a hypothesis, but all the terms you use
should have clear definitions, and the hypothesis should contain:
• The relevant variables
• The specific group being studied
• The predicted outcome of the experiment or analysis

5. Phrase your hypothesis in three ways


To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in if…then
form. The first part of the sentence states the independent variable
and the second part states the dependent variable.

If a first-year student starts attending more lectures, then their exam


scores will improve.
How to formulate a hypothesis
5. Phrase your hypothesis in three ways
• In academic research, hypotheses are more commonly phrased in
terms of correlations or effects, where you directly state the
predicted relationship between variables.

The number of lectures attended by first-year students has a positive


effect on their exam scores.

• If you are comparing two groups, the hypothesis can state what
difference you expect to find between them.

First-year students who attended most lectures will have better exam
scores than those who attended few lectures.
How to formulate a hypothesis
Step 6. Write a null hypothesis
If your research involves statistical hypothesis testing, you will
also have to write a null hypothesis.

The null hypothesis states that there is no difference between


two situations, groups, outcomes, or the prevalence of a
condition or phenomenon. The null hypothesis is written as H0,
while the alternative hypothesis is H1 or Ha.

H0: The number of lectures attended by first-year students has


no effect on their final exam scores.
H1: The number of lectures attended by first-year students has a
positive effect on their final exam scores.
Errors in testing hypotheses
Incorrect conclusions about the validity of a hypothesis may be
drawn if:
• the study design selected is faulty
• the sampling procedure adopted is faulty
• the method of data collection is inaccurate
• the analysis is wrong
• the statistical procedures applied are inappropriate
• the conclusions drawn are incorrect

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