Econometric S

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THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL

As we mentioned in the methodology, the process of econometric


analysis starts with an econometric model. An econometric model can
be constructed using regression equation. Therefore regression is
considered as a main tool of econometrics.

Regression analysis is concerned with the study of the dependence of


one variable, the dependent variable, on one or more other variables,
the explanatory variables, with a view to estimating and/or predicting
the (population) mean or average value of the former in terms of the
known or fixed (in repeated sampling) values of the latter.

The term dependent variable can be denoted using other terminologies


like Explained variable, Regressand, Endogenous variable, and
Controlled variable. Likewise the term explanatory variables also have
other terminologies such as Independent variable, Regressor,
Exogenous variable, and Control variable.

E(Y | Xi) = β1 + β2Xi

Where β1 and β2 are unknown but fixed parameters known as the


regression coefficients. Equation itself is known as the linear
population regression function (PRF).
THE SAMPLE REGRESSION FUNCTION (SRF):
Yi = ˆ β1 + ˆβ2Xi + ˆui

The PRF is an idealized concept, since in practice one rarely has access
to the entire population of interest. Usually, one has a sample of
observations from the population. Therefore, error term is an inevitable
element in models based on samples. Usually, one has to use the
stochastic sample regression function (SRF) to estimate the PRF.

OLS METHOD

The estimation of econometric model is very crucial in econometric


analysis. The method of ordinary least squares is attributed to Carl
Friedrich Gauss, a German mathematician. Under certain assumptions,
the method of least squares has some very attractive statistical
properties that have made it one of the most powerful and popular
methods for estimating the unknown parameters in a linear regression
model.

This method work based on the criterion of minimizing error term.


Under this method, the value of parameter is selected at which the
summation of error square is minimum.

ui2=(Yi-Yi) 2 should be minimum


ASSUMPTIONS OF CLASSICAL LINEAR REGRESSION
MODEL

1: The regression model is linear in the parameters. Keep in mind


that the regressand Y and the regressor X themselves may be nonlinear.

2: X values are fixed in repeated sampling. Values taken by the


regressor X are considered fixed in repeated samples. More technically,
X is assumed to be nonstochastic.

3: Zero mean value of disturbance ui. Given the value of X, the mean,
or expected, value of the random disturbance term ui is zero.
Technically, the conditional mean value of ui is zero. Symbolically, we
have
E(ui |Xi) = 0

4: Homoscedasticity or equal variance of ui. Given the value of X,


the variance of ui is the same for all observations. That is, the
conditional variances of ui are identical. Symbolically, we have
Var (ui) = 2

5: No autocorrelation between the disturbances. Given any two X


values, Xi and Xj (i _= j), the correlation between any two ui and uj (i
_= j) is zero. Symbolically,
Cov (ui, uj) = 0
6: Zero covariance between ui and Xi, or E(ui, Xi) = 0.

7: The number of observations n must be greater than the number


of parameters to be estimated.

8: Variability in X values. The X values in a given sample must not


all be the same. If all the X values are identical, then Xi = .X and the
denominator of that equation will be zero, making it impossible to
estimate β2 and therefore β1.

9: The regression model is correctly specified. Alternatively, there is


no specification bias or error in the model used in empirical analysis.

10: There is no perfect multicollinearity. That is, there are no perfect


linear relationships among the explanatory variables.

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