BACHELOR OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES HONORS DEGREE PROGRAMME
LEVEL 05 FINAL EXAMINATION – 2020 QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR MANAGEMENT II – MCU 3209/ MSU 5509 DURATION THREE (03) HOURS
DATE: 22nd January 2020 TIME: 1.30 pm – 4.30 pm
Answer 5 questions only.
Use of a non-programmable calculator is allowed.
Question 1 a. A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on an average, 10% of his pistons are rejected because they are either oversize or undersize. What is the probability that a batch of 10 pistons will contain at least 2 rejects? (5 marks) b. A website receives hits at a rate of 300 per hour. Find the probability of 10 hits in a given minute. (5 marks) c. A company pays its employees an average wage of Rs 585/- per day with a standard deviation of Rs 108/-. If the wages are approximately normally distributed, determine the proportion of the workers getting wages between Rs 495/- and Rs 664/- per day. (5 marks) d. The probability that a new restaurant in a particular city fails in the first year of operation is 0.1. If 15 new restaurants are sampled, use Normal approximation to calculate the probability that more than 5 out of the 15 restaurants fail. (5 marks)
(Total 20 Marks) Question 2
a. The target thickness for silicon wafers used in a certain type of integrated circuit is 245 μm. A sample of 50 wafers is obtained and the thickness of each one is determined, resulting in a sample mean thickness of 246.18 μm and a sample standard deviation of 3.60 μm.
i. Is this a sufficient evidence to indicate that the true thickness has varied from the original value? Use a level of significance of 0.01. (6 marks)
ii. Develop a 95% confidence interval to estimate the mean thickness. (4 marks)
b. Two different areas of a large city are being considered as sites for day-care centers. Of 200 households surveyed in one section, the proportion of which the mother worked full time was 0.52. In another section, 40% of the 150 households surveyed had mothers working at full time 1 jobs. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there any significant difference in the proportions of working mothers in the two areas of the city? (10 marks)
(Total 20 marks) Question 3 A scientist wants to know if the highest education level and marital status are related for all people in the country. He collects data on a simple random sample of n = 300 people. Highest education level Marital Ordinary Advanced Masters or Total status Degree level level above Single 18 36 21 15 90 Married 12 36 45 57 150 Divorced 6 9 9 6 30 Widowed 3 9 9 9 30 Total 39 90 84 87 300
Can we infer at 5% significance level that the highest education level is associated with marital status? (Total 20 marks) Question 4 A researcher wishes to investigate the relationship between calcium intake and knowledge about calcium in sports science students. The sample data is given in the table below.
a. Plot the data on a scatter diagram and interpret the relationship you can observe. (5 marks) b. Calculate the correlation between knowledge score and Calcium intake. Interpret the correlation between the two factors? (6 marks)
2 c. Calculate the regression equation. (Use knowledge score to predict Calcium intake) (5 marks) d. If the knowledge score is 28, what amount of Calcium intake would you predict? Compare that result with the values in the table. Why doesn’t the regression equation predict the exact value? (4 marks)
(Total: 20 marks) Question 5 a. A juice company is planning an expansion. The management wishes to predict which sites are likely to be profitable. Several areas, where predictors of profitability can be identified, are: number of hotel rooms within 3km from the site (Number), distance to the nearest juice stall (Nearest), number of offices (Office Space), number of colleges (Enrollment), median annual household income (Income) and distance to town (Distance). The data was analysed using SPSS. The outputs are as follows:
i. Determine the regression equation based on the given outputs. (3 marks)
ii. The management of the company claims that the profit margin increases with the distance to town. Is this statement correct? Justify your answer. (2 marks) iii. Interpret the coefficient of the variable of ‘median household income’. (Its strength and how it may affect the profit margin) (3 marks) 3 iv. Estimate the profit margin with 23 number of hotel rooms within 3km from the site (Number), 4km distance to the nearest juice stall (Nearest), 10 offices (Office Space), 3 colleges (Enrollment), Rs 350,000/- of median annual household income (Income) and 1.5km distance to town (Distance). (2 marks)
b. Comment on the following scatter plots. (i.e. the relationship and its strength)(10 marks)
(i) (ii)
(iii) (iv)
(Total: 20 marks)
Question 6 a. The quarterly sales of a company have to be analysed to develop a forecast. The data are as follows:
i. Find the seasonal index values using the moving averages. (8 marks) ii. If the trend line equation is, Sales = 237.83+1.8*Period, find the forecasted sales for the four quarters of year 2020. (4 marks)
b. Explain the components of time series using suitable illustrations or examples? (8 marks)
(Total: 20 marks) -----Copyrights Reserved-----
5 Cumulative Binomial Probabilities
P(r) = nCrprq(n-r) P(x) = e-λλx x!where, e = 2.718 𝜎 𝑠 x –E < μ < x + E where, E = 𝑍𝛼//2 or E = 𝑡𝛼/2 √𝑛 √𝑛
