Budgeting-QUIZ Materials
Budgeting-QUIZ Materials
Budgeting-QUIZ Materials
F is the forecast revenue; A is the actual revenue. / / is the absolute sign, and any number
coming out of it is positive. APE is the forecast-actual difference in percentage. A smaller APE
indicates a more accurate forecast. APE is simple to understand and easy to use, but it does not
tell the direction of forecast error: whether it is an underestimate or overestimate.
To increase the reliability of our results, we need to get MAPE. MAPE is the average (or mean)
of multiple APEs.
How We Pay for the Federal Government
The federal government
Roughly 80% of the federal government’s revenue is from two sources: the individual income
tax and social insurance receipts. The income tax an individual pays is determined by their
taxable income, tax rate, and any applicable tax preferences. Taxable income is an individual’s
income minus any tax preferences. The federal government offers a standard exemption, or a
reduction of an individual’s taxable income, that all taxpayers can claim. Beyond that standard
deduction, eligible taxpayers can claim hundreds of other exemptions and other tax benefits
related to home ownership, retirement savings, health insurance, investments in equipment
and technology, and dozens of other areas. Why does the federal government offer these
preferences? To encourage taxpayers to save for retirement, buy a home, invest in a business,
or participate in many other types of economic activity. Whether tax preferences actually
encourage those behaviors is the subject of substantial debate and analysis. The tax rate is the
amount of tax paid per dollar of taxable income. An individual’s effective tax rate is their tax
liability divided by their taxable income. If an individual claims a variety of tax preferences, their
effective tax rate might be much lower than the statutory tax rate. Social insurance receipts are
taxes levied on individuals’ wages. Employers take these taxes out of workers’ wages and send
them to the federal government on their behalf. That’s why they’re often called payroll taxes or
withholding taxes. Social insurance receipts are the main funding source for social insurance
programs like Social Security and Medicare.
The remaining 20% or so of federal revenue is from a variety of sources including the corporate
income tax (taxes on business income, rather than individual income), excise taxes (taxes on the
purchase of specific goods like gasoline, cigarettes, airline tickets, etc.), and estate taxes (a tax
imposed when a family’s wealth is transferred from one generation to the next).
Federal government spending is divided roughly equally across six main areas:
National defense includes pay and benefits for all members of the US Army, Navy, Air Force,
and Marines, and all civilian support services. It also includes capital outlays – or spending
on items with long useful lives – for military bases, planes, tanks, and other military
hardware.
Medicare is the federal government’s health insurance program for the elderly. By some
estimates, Medicare paid for nearly one-quarter of all the health care delivered in the US.
Medicare has three main components. “Part A” pays for hospital stays, surgery, and other
medical procedures that require admission to a hospital. “Part B” covers supplementary
medical services like physician visits and procedures that do not require hospital admission.
“Part D” pays for prescription drugs. Part A is funded through payroll taxes and through
premiums paid by individual beneficiaries. Part B and Part D are funded mostly through
payroll taxes. Medicare does not employ physicians or other health care providers. It is, in
effect, a health insurance company funded by the federal government.
Health is a broad category that covers health-related spending outside of Medicare. The
largest segment of this spending is the federal government’s contribution to state Medicaid
programs. It includes funding for public health and population health agencies like the
National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and
for health-focused regulatory agencies like the Food and Drug Administration.
Social Security is an income assistance program for retirees. Social Security is simple.
Individuals contribute payroll taxes while they are working, those taxes are deposited into a
fund, and when they retire, they are paid from that fund. Social Security also distributes
benefits to disabled individuals who are not able to work.
Income security is cash and cash-like assistance programs outside of Social Security. Most of
these programs help individuals pay for specific, basic necessities. It includes
unemployment insurance, food stamps, foster care etc.
The federal government borrows a lot of money. Some of that borrowing is to pay for “big
ticket” or capital outlays like aircraft carriers or refurbishing national parks. To purchase
these items, it borrows money and pays it back over time. It also borrows when revenue
collections fall short of spending needs. This is known as deficit spending. The federal
government borrows money by issuing three types of Treasury Obligations: Treasury bills,
Treasury notes, and Treasury bonds. Much like loans, obligations are bought by investors
and the government agrees to pay them back, with interest, over time. Treasury bills come
due – i.e., they have a maturity – of three months to one year. Treasury notes have
maturities of two years to ten years. Treasury bonds mature in ten years up to 30 years.
Each year the government pays the annual portion of the interest it owes on its Treasury
obligations, and that payment is known as net interest.
“Everything Else” is just as it sounds. This includes federal government programs for
transportation, student loans, affordable housing, the arts and humanities, and thousands
of other programs.
We often divide federal government spending into two categories: discretionary spending and
non-discretionary or mandatory spending. Non-discretionary spending is controlled by law.
Social Security is a good example. A person becomes eligible for “full” Social Security benefits
once they are over age 65 and have paid payroll taxes for almost four years. Once they become
eligible, the benefit they receive is determined by a formula that is linked to the total wages
they earned during their last 35 years of working. That formula is written into the law that
created Social Security. Once a person becomes eligible, they are “entitled” to the benefits
determined by that formula. Other federal programs like Medicare, food stamps, Supplemental
Security Income, and many others follow a formula-based structure. If Congress and the
President want to change how much is spent on these programs, they must change the relevant
laws. Discretionary spending is the spending that Congress, and the President can adjust in the
annual budget. It includes national defense, most of the “health” spending category, and
virtually all of the “everything else” category.
The Federal Government has a substantial structural deficit. A structural deficit is when a
government’s long-term spending exceeds its long-term revenues. Why is the deficit expected
to grow so quickly? In part because federal non-discretionary spending is going to grow. More
and more of the “Baby Boomer” population will become eligible for Medicare, Social Security,
and other programs. As the eligible population grows, so too will spending. Moreover, the cost
of health care services has increased three to four times faster than all other costs across the
economy. That’s why health-related non-discretionary spending is the proverbial “double
whammy” – the number of people who need those services will increase, and so will the rate of
spending per person to deliver those services. At the same time, most economists are
projecting slower economic growth for the next several decades. Given the federal
government’s current revenue policies, that will mean slower revenue growth over time. Those
two main factors, growth in non-discretionary spending and slower revenue growth, will lead to
much larger deficits over time.
To finance those deficits, if the federal government does not collect enough revenue to cover
its spending needs, it will borrow. This rapid growth in debt is concerning for many reasons.
First, federal government borrowing “crowds out” borrowing by small businesses,
homeowners, state and local governments, and others who need to borrow to invest in their
own projects. Since there are only so many investors with money to invest, if the federal
government takes a larger share of that money, there’s less for everyone else. Many
economists and finance experts have also warned that if the federal government’s debt grows
too high, then investors might be less willing to loan it money in the future. If investors are less
willing to loan the government money, the government must offer higher interest rates to
increase investors’ return on investment. As the federal government’s interest rates rise,
interest rates rise for everyone else. Occasional increases to interest rates are not necessarily a
bad thing, but prolonged high interest rates mean less investment by people and business, and
that leads to lower productivity and slower economic growth.
What is a “Fair” Tax?
Governments tax many different types of activity with many different types of revenue
instruments (i.e., taxes, fees, charges, etc.). Each instrument is fair in some ways, but less fair in
other ways. In public finance we typically define fairness along several dimensions:
Efficiency. Basic economics tells us that if a good or service is taxed, then consumers will
purchase or produce less of it. An efficient tax minimizes these market distortions. For
instance, most tax experts agree the corporate income tax is one of the least efficient.
Most large corporations are willing and able to move to the state or country where they
face the lowest possible corporate income tax burden. When they move, they take jobs,
capital investments, and tax revenue with them. Property taxes, by contrast, are one of
the most efficient. The quantity of land available for purchase is fixed, so taxing it cannot
distort supply the same way that taxing income might discourage work, or that taxing
investment might encourage near-term consumption.
Vertical Equity. Vertical equity means the amount of tax someone pays increases with
their ability to pay. Most income tax systems impose higher tax rates on individuals and
businesses with higher incomes. This is meant to ensure taxpayers who have greater
ability to pay will contribute a higher share of their income through taxes. A tax with a
high degree of vertical equity, like the income tax, is known as a progressive tax. A
regressive tax is a tax where those who have less ability to pay ultimately pay a higher
share of their income in taxes.
Horizontal Equity. Horizontal equity – sometimes called “tax neutrality” – means that
people with similar ability to pay contribute a similar amount of taxes. The property tax
is a good example of a tax that promotes horizontal equity. With a properly
administered property tax system, homeowners or business owners with similar
properties will pay similar amounts of property taxes. Income taxes are quite different.
Because of tax preferences, it’s entirely possible for two people with the same income to
pay very different amounts of income tax.
Elasticity. An elastic tax responds quickly to changes in the broader economy. If the
economy is growing and consumers are spending money, collections of elastic taxes
increase, and overall revenue grows. This is quite attractive to policymakers. With elastic
taxes, they can see growth in tax collections without increasing the tax rate. Of course,
the opposite is also true. If the economy is in recession, consumer spending decreases,
and so do revenue collections. Sales taxes and income taxes are the most elastic
revenues.
Stability. A stable – or “inelastic” – tax does not respond quickly to changes in the
economy. Property taxes are among the most inelastic taxes. Property values don’t
typically fluctuate as much as prices of other goods, so property tax collections don’t
increase or decrease nearly as fast as sales or income taxes. They’re more predictable,
but they can only grow so fast.
Administrative Costs. Some taxes require a lot of time and resources to administer.
Property taxes are a good example. Tax assessors go to great lengths to make certain
the appraised value they assign to a home or business is as close as possible to its actual
market value. To do this they perform a lot of spatial analysis. That analysis demands
time and expertise.
The chart below illustrates a basic fact about taxation: all taxes come with trade-offs. For
instance, the property tax is stable and promotes horizontal equity, but it’s costly to administer
and generally non-responsive to broader trends in the economy. The sales tax is cheap to
administer and produces more revenue during good economic times, but it’s also quite
regressive. Also note that for many of these instruments the evidence is mixed. That is, tax
policy experts disagree on whether that characteristic is a strength or weakness for that
particular revenue instrument.
CHAPTER 2
Types of Government Activity
A primary role of government is to provide the legal framework within which all economic
transactions occur. Beyond that, the activities of government fall into four categories: (a) the
production of goods and services; (b) the regulation and subsidization of private production; (c)
the purchase of goods and services, from missiles to the services of street cleaners; and (d) the
redistribution of income, that is, payments, such as unemployment benefits, to particular group
of individuals that enable them to spend more than they could otherwise. Payments that
transfer money from one individual to another – but not in return for the provision of goods or
services – are called transfer payments.
These four categories do not correspond to the way the federal government organizes its
budget or divide responsibilities between its various departments. Moreover, government
activities are undertaken at the state and local levels as well as at the federal level, with the
relative importance of state, local, and federal expenditures of various types having changed
over time. A final complication is that the nature of some government expenditures is
ambiguous. For example, government subsidies to small farmers could be considered a
production subsidy or a redistributive (transfer) payment.
Government Production
The line between public and private production shifts overtime. During the past 15 years in
Europe, many countries have converted public enterprises into private enterprise, a process
called privatization. The process of converting private enterprises to government enterprises is
called nationalization. For technical reasons, the best way to measure the size of government
production is to look at employment. In 1997 public employees represented almost 16% of
total employment. This was almost double the percentage in 1929. The figure shows a marked
increase in the ratio of public employment from 1929 through 1936, a burst of public
employment during World War II, and return to pre-War levels by 1952. It is important to bear
in mind though reductions that reductions in federal expenditures or employment do not of
themselves necessarily imply or reduction in government expenditures or employment. More
of a burden may simply be placed on states and localities.
Government’s Influence of Private Production
In industries in which the government is neither a producer nor a consumer, it may
nevertheless have a pervasive effect on the decisions of private producers. This influence is
exercised through subsidies and taxes – both direct and indirect – and through regulations.
There are many motives for such government influence. There may be dissatisfaction with
particular actions of firms, such as pollution. There may be concerns about the monopoly
power of some firms. Special interest groups may convince Congress that they’re particularly
deserving of help. Private markets may fail to provide certain goods and services that are felt to
be important.
SUBSIDIES AND TAXES. Government subsidizes private production in three broad ways: direct
payments to producers, indirect payments through the tax system, and other hidden
expenditures. The tax system also sometimes serves to subsidize production. If the government
gives a grant to a producer to assist her in buying a machine, it appears as an expenditure. But
suppose the government allows her to take a tax credit on her expenditures on machines.
Though it’s not accounted as such, for all intents and purposes the tax credit is equivalent to
government expenditures and is thus referred to as a tax expenditure. Finally, many
government subsidies show up neither in the statistics on the government expenditures nor in
those on tax expenditures. For instance, when the government restricts the import of some
foreign good or imposes a tariff on its import, this raises the prices of that good in the US.
American producers of competing goods are helped. In effect, there is a subsidy to American
producers, paid not by the government but directly by consumers.
GOVERNMENT CREDIT. A special type of subsidy is government provision of credit below
market interest rates, in the form of low-interest loans and loan guarantees. Government
subsidies tend to lead to the expansion of the subsidized industry, by lowering its cost of doing
business. This is as true for subsidies to credit as it is for other forms of subsidies. In addition to
loan subsidies, other government programs affect the allocation of credit and thus of
productive resources. In the US, the subsidies are often to buy particular goods and services.
For instance, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) encourage lending to enable people to
buy homes and go to school.
REGULATING BUSINESS. Government regulates business activity in an attempt to protect
workers, consumers, and the environment, to prevent anti-competitive practices, and to
prevent discrimination.
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Every year the government buys billions of dollars’ worth of goods and services. It does this to
provide for national defense, to maintain a network of highways, to provide education, police
protection, fire protection, and parks. What we characterized as government purchases are
amounts spent for goods and services made available to the public, such as national defense,
public schools, and highways. Government payments to the aged through the Medicare
program to finance their hospital expenses or to the poor through the food stamp program
categorized as transfer payments, not as direct government purchases.
Government Redistribution of Income
The government takes an active role in redistributing income, that is, and taking money away
from some individuals and giving it to others. There are two major categories of explicit
redistribution programs: public assistance programs, which provide benefits to those poor
enough to qualify; and social insurance, which provides benefits to the retired, disabled,
unemployed, and sick.
Outlays for explicit redistribution programs are called transfer payments. These expenditures
are qualitatively different from government spending on roads or bombers. Transfer payments
are simply changes in who has the right to consume goods. In contrast, a government outlay for
a road or a bomber reduces the amount of other good (e.g., private consumption goods) that
society can enjoy. Transfer payments affect the way in which society’s total income is divided
among its members, but (neglecting here losses of output due to distorted incentives
associated with transfers) transfers do not affect the total amount of private goods that can be
enjoyed.
PUBLIC ASSISTANE PROGRAMS. Public assistance programs take two forms. Some provide cash,
while others provide payment only for specific services or commodities. The latter are referred
to as in-kind benefits (Medicaid, which covers the medical costs of the poor, and accounts for
about one half of total public assistance).
SOCIAL INSURANCE PROGRAMS. Social insurance differs from public assistance in that an
individual’s entitlements are partly dependent on his or her contributions, which can be viewed
as insurance premiums. To the extent that what individuals receive is commensurate with their
contributions, social insurance can be viewed as a government “production activity” not a
redistribution activity. But since what some receive is far in excess of what they contribute (on
an actuarial basis) there is a large element of redistribution involved in government social
insurance programs.
The social security and Medicare programs are sometimes referred to as middle-class
entitlement programs because the main beneficiaries are the middle class, and benefits are
provided not on the basis of need but because the beneficiaries satisfy certain other eligibility
standards (e.g., age). As soon as they satisfy these criteria, they become entitled to receive the
benefits.
HIDDEN REDISTRIBUTION PROGRAMS. The government affects the distribution of income not
only through direct transfers but also through the indirect effects of the tax system and other
government programs. One could imagine the government taxing everyone at the same rate
but then giving grants to those whose income fell below a certain level. This would have the
same effect as taxing the lower income individuals at a lower rate. Thus, there is a certain
arbitrariness in distinguishing between transfer payments through spending programs and
implicit transfers through the taxes. The government also redistributes income in the guise of
subsidy programs and quotas. Spending for goods and services also has its redistributive
consequences: subsidies to urban bus transport may help the poor, while subsidies to suburban
rail lines may help the middle class.
Government Revenues
Governments raise revenue to pay for their expenditures by levying a variety of taxes. When
the revenues that it receives from taxes are less than its planned expenditures, it must either
cut back expenditures or borrow the difference.
The federal government currently relies on the five major forms of taxation: (1) the individual
income tax, (2) payroll taxes (to finance Social Security and Medicare benefits), (3) corporate
income taxes, (4) excise taxes (taxes on specific commodities, such as gasoline, cigarettes,
airline tickets, and alcohol), and (5) customs taxes (taxes levied on selected imported goods).
Unlike the federal tax system, state and local tax systems rely heavily on sales and property
taxes. Competition among states for industry discourages the use of some state and local taxes,
especially corporate income taxes. The federal government provides substantial aid to state
and local governments, much of it directed at specific programs like road construction, mass
transit, bilingual education, vocational education, and libraries.
Outside the US, the value-added tax (a tax imposed on the value of the output of a firm less the
value of goods and services purchased from other firms) is a major source of revenue.
Deficit Financing
The major source of financing of government expenditures is taxes. But many governments,
especially in recent years, have found tax revenues insufficient to pay for their expenditures. A
deficit in any period is the excess of spending over revenues. A deficit is financed by borrowing.
The cumulative value of borrowing by a firm, household, or government is its debt.
A firm or household that runs a deficit cannot continue to borrow indefinitely, but will be
forced into bankruptcy once its debt gets too large. Because of the federal government’s ability
to tax, and the huge potential revenue source is can tap, its deficits do not cause the same kinds
of problems that large debts incurred by private firms or individual would. Lenders will continue
to willingly finance the federal government’s debt, provided the interest rate is high enough.