July 25, 2023

International Monetary Fund

World Economic Outlook

July 2023

World Economic Outlook Update

This datafile includes tables, charts, and underlying data from the July 2023 World Economic Outlook
Update. When using the data, please refer to the
IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2023.

Please submit any questions using WEO Data Question Form

 International Monetary Fund
World Economic Outlook Update

July 2023

Table of Contents

Figures and Tables

Selected Economies Real GDP Growth
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
Figure 1. Value Added in the Services Sector: Distance to Pre-Pandemic Trends
Figure 1.1. Financial Conditions Index
Figure 1.2. Frontier Soveriegn Issuance by Region
ry Fund
k Update

s
World Economic Outlook, July 2023 Update

Selected Economies Real GDP Growth

(Percent change)
Difference from April 2023
Estimate Projections WEO Projections 1/
2021 2022 2023 2024 2023 2024

Argentina 10.7 5.0 –2.5 2.8 –2.7 0.8

Australia 5.2 3.7 1.6 1.5 0.0 –0.2
Brazil 5.0 2.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 –0.3
Canada 5.0 3.4 1.7 1.4 0.2 –0.1
China 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.5 0.0 0.0
Egypt 2/ 3.3 6.7 3.7 4.1 0.0 –0.9
France 6.4 2.5 0.8 1.3 0.1 0.0
Germany 2.6 1.8 –0.3 1.3 –0.2 0.2
India 2/ 9.1 7.2 6.1 6.3 0.2 0.0
Indonesia 3.7 5.3 5.0 5.0 0.0 –0.1
Iran 2/ 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0
Italy 7.0 3.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1
Japan 2.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
Kazakhstan 4.1 3.3 4.8 3.9 0.5 –1.0
Korea 4.3 2.6 1.4 2.4 –0.1 0.0
Malaysia 3.3 8.7 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Mexico 4.7 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.8 –0.1
Netherlands 4.8 4.5 0.8 1.2 –0.2 0.0
Nigeria 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 0.0 0.0
Pakistan 2/ 5.8 6.1 –0.5 2.5 –1.0 –1.0
Philippines 5.7 7.6 6.2 5.5 0.2 –0.3
Poland 6.9 5.1 1.2 2.2 0.9 –0.2
Russia 5.6 –2.1 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.0
Saudi Arabia 3.9 8.7 1.9 2.8 –1.2 –0.3
South Africa 4.7 1.9 0.3 1.7 0.2 –0.1
Spain 5.5 5.5 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.0
Thailand 1.5 2.6 3.4 3.6 0.0 0.0
Türkiye 11.4 5.6 3.0 2.8 0.3 –0.8
United Kingdom 7.6 4.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.0
United States 5.9 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.2 –0.1

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, July 2023 Update.
Note: The selected economies account for approximately 83 percent of world output.
1/ Difference based on rounded figures for the current and April 2023 WEO forecasts.
2/ Data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis.
World Economic Outlook, July 2023 Update

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections

(Percent change, unless noted otherwise)
Year over Year
Difference from April 2023 WEO Q4 over Q4 2/
Estimate Projections Projections 1/ Estimate Projections
2021 2022 2023 2024 2023 2024 2022 2023
World Output 6.3 3.5 3.0 3.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 2.9
Advanced Economies 5.4 2.7 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.4
United States 5.9 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.2 –0.1 0.9 1.4
Euro Area 5.3 3.5 0.9 1.5 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.2
Germany 2.6 1.8 –0.3 1.3 –0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5
France 6.4 2.5 0.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.9
Italy 7.0 3.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.5 0.9
Spain 5.5 5.5 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 1.8
Japan 2.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.5
United Kingdom 7.6 4.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.5
Canada 5.0 3.4 1.7 1.4 0.2 –0.1 2.1 1.6
Other Advanced Economies 3/ 5.5 2.7 2.0 2.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.8
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 6.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 0.1 –0.1 3.1 4.1
Emerging and Developing Asia 7.5 4.5 5.3 5.0 0.0 –0.1 4.2 5.3
China 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.5 0.0 0.0 3.1 5.8
India 4/ 9.1 7.2 6.1 6.3 0.2 0.0 6.1 4.3
Emerging and Developing Europe 7.3 0.8 1.8 2.2 0.6 –0.3 –1.3 2.7
Russia 5.6 –2.1 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.0 –3.1 1.9
Latin America and the Caribbean 7.0 3.9 1.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 2.6 0.8
Brazil 5.0 2.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 –0.3 2.5 1.3
Mexico 4.7 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.8 –0.1 3.7 1.9
Middle East and Central Asia 4.4 5.4 2.5 3.2 –0.4 –0.3 ... ...
Saudi Arabia 3.9 8.7 1.9 2.8 –1.2 –0.3 5.5 2.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.7 3.9 3.5 4.1 –0.1 –0.1 ... ...
Nigeria 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 0.0 0.0 ... ...
South Africa 4.7 1.9 0.3 1.7 0.2 –0.1 ... ...
Memorandum
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 6.0 3.0 2.5 2.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 2.5
European Union 5.5 3.7 1.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 1.8 1.5
ASEAN-5 5/ 4.0 5.5 4.6 4.5 0.1 –0.1 4.7 4.6
Middle East and North Africa 4.0 5.4 2.6 3.1 –0.5 –0.3 ... ...
Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies 7.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 0.0 –0.1 3.1 4.1
Low-Income Developing Countries 4.1 5.0 4.5 5.2 –0.2 –0.2 ... ...
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 6/ 10.7 5.2 2.0 3.7 –0.4 0.2 ... ...
Advanced Economies 9.9 6.1 2.3 3.2 –0.1 0.3 ... ...
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 12.2 3.7 1.5 4.5 –0.9 –0.2 ... ...
Commodity Prices
Oil 7/ 65.8 39.2 –20.7 –6.2 3.4 –0.4 8.8 –13.0
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity import weights) 26.7 7.9 –4.8 –1.4 –2.0 –0.4 –0.4 0.0
World Consumer Prices 8/ 4.7 8.7 6.8 5.2 –0.2 0.3 9.2 5.5
Advanced Economies 9/ 3.1 7.3 4.7 2.8 0.0 0.2 7.7 3.3
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 8/ 5.9 9.8 8.3 6.8 –0.3 0.3 10.5 7.4
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during May 2, 2023–May 30, 2023. Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The
aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. WEO = World Economic Outlook.
1/ Difference based on rounded figures for the current and April 2023 WEO forecasts. Countries for which forecasts have been updated relative to April 2023 WEO forecasts account for
approximately 90 percent of world GDP measured at purchasing-power-parity weights.
2/ For World Output (Emerging Market and Developing Economies), the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent (80 percent) of annual world (emerging market
and developing economies') output at purchasing-power-parity weights.
3/ Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
4/ For India, data and projections are presented on a fiscal year basis, with FY 2022/23 (starting in April 2022) shown in the 2022 column. India's growth projections are 6.6 percent in 2023 and
5.8 percent in 2024 based on calendar year.
5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand.
6/ Simple average of growth rates for export and import volumes (goods and services).
7/ Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average assumed price of oil in US dollars a barrel, based on futures markets (as of June 1,
2023), is $76.43 in 2023 and $71.68 in 2024.
8/ Excludes Venezuela.
9/ The inflation rate for the euro area is 5.2% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, that for Japan is 3.4% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024, and that for the United States is 4.4% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024.
Q4 over Q4 2/
Projections
2024
2.9
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.1
2.2
1.0
1.3
1.8
2.1
4.1
4.9
4.1
6.4
2.0
0.8
2.9
2.2
1.7
...
2.9
...
...
...

2.4
1.7
4.8
...
4.1
...
...
...
...

–4.9
0.8
3.9
2.5
5.1
omic size. The

sts account for

orld (emerging market

6 percent in 2023 and

arkets (as of June 1,

d 2.8% in 2024.
World Economic Outlook, July 2023 Update
Figure 1. Value Added in the Services Sector: Distance to Pre-Pandemic Trends
(Percent, year over year)

Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Means Upper Lower Means Upper Lower
2019:Q1 0.1 0.5 -0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.7
2019:Q2 0.2 0.7 -0.3 0.9 2.0 -0.2
2019:Q3 0.1 0.6 -0.4 0.5 1.9 -0.8
2019:Q4 0.0 0.5 -0.6 -0.6 1.4 -2.7
2020:Q1 -2.7 -1.0 -4.4 -2.5 0.8 -5.7
2020:Q2 -11.8 -6.1 -17.6 -15.4 -8.5 -22.2
2020:Q3 -5.4 -1.6 -9.2 -8.2 -2.9 -13.4
2020:Q4 -5.3 -1.5 -9.0 -6.0 -1.4 -10.6
2021:Q1 -5.2 -1.0 -9.4 -4.9 0.1 -9.8
2021:Q2 -4.1 -0.7 -7.6 -5.6 1.4 -12.7
2021:Q3 -3.2 -0.7 -5.7 -4.2 3.0 -11.3
2021:Q4 -2.0 0.8 -4.8 -2.8 4.5 -10.0
2022:Q1 -2.3 0.4 -4.9 -2.2 4.9 -9.3
2022:Q2 -1.9 0.5 -4.3 -2.0 5.7 -9.6
2022:Q3 -1.8 0.9 -4.4 -1.7 5.0 -8.5
2022:Q4 -2.2 0.5 -4.9 -2.2 4.7 -9.1
2023:Q1 -2.7 -0.2 -5.3 -1.2 6.4 -8.9
ping Economies
World Economic Outlook, July 2023 Update
Figure 1.1. Financial Conditions Index
(Standard deviations from mean)

United States Emerging market economies Other advanced economies

2019:Q1 -0.57 0.19 -0.04
2019:Q2 -0.71 0.13 -0.12
2019:Q3 -0.70 -0.01 -0.16
2019:Q4 -0.75 -0.13 -0.32
2020:Q1 2.11 0.27 1.04
2020:Q2 -0.09 0.35 0.34
2020:Q3 -0.49 0.13 -0.07
2020:Q4 -0.90 -0.01 -0.36
2021:Q1 -1.02 -0.09 -0.57
2021:Q2 -1.39 -0.28 -0.67
2021:Q3 -1.33 -0.17 -0.65
2021:Q4 -1.11 -0.12 -0.39
2022:Q1 -0.43 0.23 0.09
2022:Q2 -0.07 0.18 0.56
2022:Q3 -0.14 0.14 0.88
2022:Q4 -0.40 0.32 0.66
2023:Q1 -0.34 0.36 0.41
2023:Q2 -0.71 0.30 0.30
World Economic Outlook, July 2023 Update
Figure 1.2. Frontier Soveriegn Issuance by Region
(Billions of US dollars)

Not available