Harun Seminar IJST
Harun Seminar IJST
Harun Seminar IJST
1
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sebelas Maret,
Surakarta, Ir. Sutami 36A Street, Surakarta, 57126, Central Java, Indonesia
Correspondence: E-mail: alrasyidharun35@student.uns.ac.id
ABSTRACT ARTICLE INFO
Article History:
Shares are tradable assets. An investor or shareholder can buy and Submitted/Received 00 xxx 2021
sell shares on the Indonesian Capital Market (IDX) or Indonesia Stock First Revised 00 xxx 2021
Accepted 00 xxx 2021
Exchange (IDX). IDX owns 744 shares including Pt. Unilever Indonesia First Available online 00 xxx 2021
Tbk. with the stock code UNVR. UNVR shares have experienced a Publication Date 00 xxx 2021
decline in price in the last 5 years (2018-2022) due to a stock split ____________________
corporate action. Buying and selling shares requires analysis so that Keyword:
investors have strong reasons to buy the selected stock, such as Stocks
technical analysis or technical analysis. Technical analysis is an anal- Technical Analysis B-Spline
ysis of stock historical prices and is used to look for patterns that Interpolation
form later on. Technical analysis has several methods, one of which Demand Area
Supply Area.
is the identification of demand and supply areas through chart or
stock charts. The demand area is an area dominated by stock buying
due to the low price offered for shares. The supply area is an area
dominated by sell-offs because stock prices are considered
expensive. The interpolation method is a numerical method by
creating a curve that passes through all the data points in the graph.
The analytical method in this study uses the B-Spline interpolation
method. The analysis in this study has identified the demand area of
UNVR shares at a price of 3500-3660 on 22/03/2022 to 04/04/2022
with a price of 4570-4560 on 05/09/2022 to with 12/09/2022. There
are 4 identified supply areas in UNVR shares, one of which is at a
price of 5025-4860 on 20/06/2022 to 01/07/2022. UNVR investors
have the potential to profit if they buy UNVR shares in the demand
area com- pared to the supply area. UNVR investors who buy in the
demand area can sell in the supply area because UNVR’s share price
in the red area is already high.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
3 | Indonesian Journal of Science & Technology, Volume x Issue x, April 20xx Hal x-xx
explains definition of stock as a legal of
someone’s share having a listed public Issuers or stock listed on the IDX have
company. Investor may participate in special rights in carrying out
corporate action or an action of public corporate actions. Corporate action is
company that affects growth of company an issuer’s action by giving special
itself. Saboo & Gredwal [12] explains each of rights to all shareholders. The
investor has different method, goal, objectives of corporate action include
timeframe, and type of stock in stock increasing stock liquidity, reducing
market. Moreover, Fakhrudin [13] the amount of issuer debt, increasing
categorizes 3 stock based on its issuer capital, and monitoring the
performance. issuer’s financial condition. According
to Sheridan et al. [16] there are 6
1. Blue Chips Stock corporate actions described as
Blue Chips Stock is stock with big follows.
market capitalization and it public
company is a leader in certain 1. Initial Public Offering (IPO)
industry. Blue chip stock may share its Initial Public Offering is the act of an
dividend constantly and it has a great issuer offering its shares to the
performance on financial report each general public for the first time. The
quartal. Blue chips moves fluctuate IPO action is the first step for issuers
during month of November until May to be listed on the stock market
caused of ”Window Dressing” action. (Saboo and Grewall [12]). In general,
Window Dressing is a investment issuers get additional capital from
strategy by marketing fund to raise banks or financing institutions.
their client of portfolio. However, if the conditions are not
met, the issuer has another option,
2. Small Cap Stock namely using funds from the public
through shares. The purpose of an
In this type, some stocks move more issuer conducting an IPO is to develop
fluctuating than Blue Chips type. the issuer’s business, pay the issuer’s
Investor who likes in a high risk may debt, and obtain additional capital
more interested in small cap rather in from the public for operational costs.
Blue Chips (Lorne[14]). However,
investor may have a potential to gain 2. Dividend Distribution
more profit although Blue Chips may
give a sufficient profit with 1-3 % in a The issuer’s profit can be allocated to the
day. provision of employee bonuses or joint
profit sharing to investors who hold the
3. Counter-Cyclical Stock shares for the period Cum Date to Ex Date.
Counter-Cyclical categorize as stock Dividends are the issuer’s profits which are
which moves independently or it has shared with investors in order to give
a few relation with any economic investors confidence that the issuer’s
index. Counter-Cyclical stock sector performance is in good condition. Investors
consist of consumer goods, mining, who own shares before the Cum Date or the
and palm oil company. Moreover, schedule for recording dividend recipient
price of its stock does not affected by rights and do not sell them during the Ex
economic movement in fluctuate way Date are entitled to receive dividends equal
thus it can be called as a defensive to the number of shares owned multiplied
stock (Antonio et al. [15]).
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
Dr. Dewi Retno Sari S, S.Si., M.Kom., Identify Supply and Demand Area... | 4
by the issuer’s dividend price on the Payment Date.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
5 | Indonesian Journal of Science & Technology, Volume x Issue x, April 20xx Hal x-xx
which causes an increase in demand
for new share orders.
However, there is risk to consider such as
Lixing et al. [20] explains there are two capital lose. This risk happens when investor
methods to gain profit in the stock market sells stock in lower price than buy price. Lei
such as capital gain and dividend or share of et al. [21] shows capital lose caused by
the company’s gross profit. Capital gain is a demand of market falls strongly thus its
profit that obtains by the difference of buy supply adjusts with fluctute state to
price with a higher price than sell price. maintain its price.
Candlestick is visualized as the share price composed by the prices at opening, closing,
high and low (Nison [23]). If in one day a stock sale and purchase transaction occurs, a
candlestick is formed. A trader who familiar with chart or someone who is skilled at using
stock historical data relies on using candlesticks with timeframe seconds, minutes, days,
weeks, and months. The IDX sets a white candlestick to represent rising stock prices, while a
black candlestick represents falling stock prices (Figure 2.1). The black Candlestick is formed
due to a selling action while the white candlestick is formed due to a buying action.
2.3 Demand area and supply area
The demand area is a collection of candlesticks that are limited by the same demand price
line for each candlestick, while the supply area is a collection of candlesticks that are limited
by the stock bid price line. Research Escobar et al. [22] describe psychological investors who
tend to accumulate or buy shares in the demand area in the hope that stock prices will rally
or trend up, while psychological investors tend to distribute their shares in the supply area
as shown in Figure 2.2. Shares that accumulate in large quantities cause a small number of
stocks so stock prices increase. Furthermore, Ming-Ming [24] said that if buying volume
exceeds selling volume in the supply area, the area will experience a breakout condition.
Breakout is a condition with a large increase in transaction volume which causes a change in
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
Dr. Dewi Retno Sari S, S.Si., M.Kom., Identify Supply and Demand Area... | 6
the demand area to become a supply area (vice versa). This condition resulted in a new
trend due to significantly increased volume.
( x−x 0 ) ( x−x 1 )
2.4 Spline Interpolation + y1
( x 2−x 0 ) ( x 2−x 1 )
According to Kendall [25] interpolation is the
process of evaluating and looking for
functions that pass through the data set n
(x−x j )
available in the graph. In general, the P3 ( x ) = ∏ (3)
interpolation function is selected from a j=1 , j ≠k (x k −x j )
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
7 | Indonesian Journal of Science & Technology, Volume x Issue x, April 20xx Hal x-xx
P3 ( x ) =
3
m i+1 ( x−x i ) +mi ( x i +1−x )
3 +
( t i+3+1 −x
t i+3 +1−t i+1 )
B 2i+1 (x)
6 ( x i +1−x i)
+ ( x i+1−x ) f i +1+ ( x−x i ) f i
xi +1−x i
Bki ( x ) =
( x −t i
)
B k−1
t i+k −t i i
( x) (11)
−( x i+1− xi ) ¿ ¿
+ ( x−x i ) mi+1 ¿ ¿ (6)
6
+
( t i+k+ 1−x
)
B k−1 ( x)
t i+ k+1−t i+1 i+1
Pk (x )
{
0 1 t i ≤ x ≤ t i+1 : B-spline interpolation k
Bi = (7) degree,
0 other
x : data,
{
k : degree of B-spline ,
1 x ≥ t i+2 or x <t i (8) i : data index,and
x −t i ci :coefficient of B-spline
1 t ≤ x <t i+1
Bi ( x )= t i+1−t i i interpolation.
t i+2−x
t ≤ x< t i+ 2
t i +2−t i +1 i +1 In selecting the coefficient obtained
based on the value of s or the value of
( )
x−t i smoothing curve. As written in equation (13)
B2i ( x )= B1 ( x ) (9)
the small s smoothing value causes a rough
t i +2−t i i
B-Spline curve representation, whereas if s
+
( t i+2+1−x
t i+2 +1−t i+1 )
B1i +1 (x)
has a large value, the smoother B-Spline
curve representation.w value tells the
weight number that control value difference
B3i ( x )=
( x−t i
t i +3−t i )
B2i ( x ) (10)
between data. The universe values of s and
w are s , w ∈ Z . The following condition for
smoothing Pk (x i) curve is written as
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
Dr. Dewi Retno Sari S, S.Si., M.Kom., Identify Supply and Demand Area... | 8
n
Pk (x i) :B-spline interpolation
∑[ ( )]
2
k
wi P ( x i )− y i ≤ s (13)
i ∈N
with
k degree,
x : time series data,
i : index data, wi : weight with i data,
s : smoothing value, and
yi : data with index i .
This sub-chapter provides a description of UNVR stock data. UNVR stock data is recorded
only on working days, namely Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (except
national holidays). Initial UNVR share data was listed on the IDX on January 11, 1982.
Research data began on January 4, 2021 to December 23, 2022 so there are 488 data that
are visualized as shown in Figure 4.
Figure 5 shows UNVR shares have decreased over the last 5 years, namely from 2017 to
2022, while in previous years, such as 2006 to 2016, they experienced a rally or an upward
trend. The trend resistance or decline in UNVR’s share price is due to the stock split
corporate action as defined in subsection 2.1. The corporate action resulted in panic selling
resulting in massive stock selling. The purpose of the stock split as shown in subsection 2.1
on UNVR shares is that investors can buy UNVR shares at a low price. The support line or the
lowest bargaining point is needed to determine the buy price. The first step in identifying
supply and demand areas is to determine the support line by calculating the B-Spline
interpolation value.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
9 | Indonesian Journal of Science & Technology, Volume x Issue x, April 20xx Hal x-xx
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
Dr. Dewi Retno Sari S, S.Si., M.Kom., Identify Supply and Demand Area... | 10
Table 2. B-Spline interpolation degree of 1,2,and 3 increases as the degree of B-Spline
Date UNVR B-Spline Interpolation interpolation increases. The results in Table
Trade Stock
Price
( k
)
P ( xi) 3 are obtained by reducing the interpolation
( yi ¿ k =1 k =2 k =3 value with the data.
Table 3. Eror value of B-Spline interpolation
04-01- 7500 7500. 7500.0 7500.0 coefficient with degree of 1,2, and 3
2021 0 00000 00000
05-01- 7500 7500. 7538.0 7529.2 k Eror Value of B-
2021 0 70425 29906 Spline Interpolation
06-01- 7400 7400. 7411.1 7491.5 Coefficient
2021 0 69008 40189 1 0
07-01- 7250 7250. 7220.2 7204.3 2 18.23041916
2021 0 95808 56384
08-01- 7275 7275. 7267.0 7262.8 3 32.25764766
2021 0 56153 30227
The next step is to represent the graph using
B-Spline interpolation value of degreesk =1 package matplotlib. The representation is
has no difference with the UNVR stock price used to get demand and supply area. UNVR
data shown in Table 2. However, there is a stock data, knot, and the results of the
difference in the value of the coefficient interpolation are interpreted as scatter plots
with degreesk =2and k =¿3 to the UNVR as shown in Figure 5. The B-Spline
stock price data so that the degree of B- interpolation curve of degree 1 in Figure 6
Spline interpolation has an effect on the explains that the line passes through all data
smoothing of the B-Spline interpolation points while the B-Spline interpolation
curve. This is confirmed by the findings in curves of degrees 2 and 3 approaches UNVR
Table 3 which shows that the error value of stock data.
the B-Spline interpolation coefficient
Figure 6. Representation of B-Spline interpolation with degree 1,2, and 3 and its knot
After obtaining the B-Spline interpolation curve, the next step is identifying the demand and
supply areas. The characteristics of the demand and supply areas are shown in Figure 2 with
the curve experiencing a break or repeated price movements at the same intervals. The
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
11 | Indonesian Journal of Science & Technology, Volume x Issue x, April 20xx Hal x-xx
movement is limited by the line support or resistance. These lines form an area as shown in
Figure 6.
The green area is the demand area with investors who buy shares in the demand
repeated price movements after a falling area so that investors are able to sell related
trend occurs. There are two demand areas, shares due to profit-taking action. This
namely at the price interval of 3500 on days happened to UNVR stock with a rally rising
300-310 and 4500 on days 408-413 as on day 300 to 330 and followed by a red
shown in Table 4. At that price, investors area shown in Figure 6. The red area is the
buy shares at prices at the same intervals so supply area with repeated bidding price
that the number of requests for shares movements. This area is used by investors to
increases. The increase in demand for UNVR sell shares purchased by investors in the
shares causes a rally or upward trend green area. Investors who buy shares in the
because the bid price for shares is too low red area have less profit potential than
so investors have a greater profit potential investors who buy in the green area. Figure
when buying shares in the green area. 7 shows the stock distribution in the 4
supply areas so that it crosses the uptrend
The stock price will decrease if the price line. These areas include days 354-364, 370-
experiences a rally increase. This is due to 383, 390-399, and days 440-446 and are
the relatively high capital gain potential for presented in Table 4.
4. Conclusion
Based on the results and discussion, conclusions can be drawn regarding the identification
of demand and supply areas, namely
1. The degree of interpolation B-Spline does not affect the process of identifying the
demand area and the supply area because the error value does not significantly
affect the characteristics of the area.
2. UNVR shares in January 2021 to December 2022 there are 2 demand and 4 supply
areas,
3. Investors who buy shares in the demand area have a large advantage compared to
buying shares in the supply area.
5. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to thank Mathematical Soft Computing Research Group for their
moral sup- port and incisive comments to improve this article The research described in this
paper is supported by a fundamental grant from the Research and Community Service
Institute of Universitas Sebelas Maret through a letter of agreement for the implementation
of the research implementation of the non-APBN Fund No. 254/UN27.22/PT.01.03/2022.
7. REFERENCES
[1] Zhu, S., Y. Chi, L. Gao, Y. Chen and R. Peng, Analysis of Influencing Factors of Thermal
Coal Price, Energies 15(2022), no. 15,1-16.
[2] Aycel,Ü. and Y. Santur, A new moving average approach to predict the direction of stock
movements in algorithmic trading, Journal of New Result Science 11(2022), no.1, 13-25.
[3] Miller, N., Y. Yang, B. Sun, and G. Zhang, Identification of technical analysis patterns with
smoothing splines for bitcoin prices, Journal of Applied Statistics 46(2019), no.12, 2289-
2297.
[4] Liang, M., S. Wu, X. Wang and Q. Chen, A stock time series forecasting approach
incorporating candlestick patterns and sequence similarity, Expert Systems With
Applications 205(2022).
[5] Lo, A. W. and A. C. MacKinlay, A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, Princeton
University Press, New Jersey, 2002.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
13 | Indonesian Journal of Science & Technology, Volume x Issue x, April 20xx Hal x-xx
[6] Lo, A. W. and A. C. MacKinlay, Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks:
Evidence from a Simple Specification Test,The Review of Financial Studies 1(1988), no.1,
41-66.
[7] Harris, L., The October 1987 S&P 500 Stock-Futures Basis, The Journal of Finance,
44(1989), no.1, 77-99.
[8] Fama, E. F., The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices, The Journal of Business 38(1965), no.1,
34-105.
[9] Lin, X., Z. Yang and Y. Song, Intelligent stock trading system based on improved technical
analysis and Echo State Network, Expert Systems with Applications, 38(2011), no.9,
11347-11354.
[10] Chong, T. T.- L. and W.-K. Ng, Technical analysis and the London stock exchange: testing
the MACD and RSI rules using the FT30, Applied Economics Letters, 15(2004), no.14,
1111-1114.
[11] Rusdin, Pasar Modal Teori Masalah dan Kebijakan dalam Praktek, Alfabeta, Bandung,
2008.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045
Dr. Dewi Retno Sari S, S.Si., M.Kom., Identify Supply and Demand Area... | 14
[12] Saboo, A. R. and R. Grewal, Stock market reactions to customer and competitor
orientations: the case of initial public offerings,Marketing Science 32(2013), no.1, 70-88.
[13] Fakhrudin, H. M., Istilah pasar modal AZ: berisi kumpulan istilah populer pasar modal
khususnya di pasar modal Indonesia, mencakup berbagai istilah seputar perdagangan
saham, obligasi, reksa dana, instrumen derivatif dan berbagai istilah terkait lainnya,
Elex Media Komputindo, Jakarta, 2008.
[14] Switzer, L. N., The behaviour of small cap vs. large cap stocks in recessions and
recoveries: Empirical evidence for the United States and Canada, North American
Journal of Economics and Finance 21(2010), no.3, 332-346.
[15] Mele, A., Asymmetric stock market volatility and the cyclical behavior of expected
returns, Journal of Financial Economics 86(2007), no.2, 446-478.
[16] Titman S., C. Wei and B. Zhao, Corporate actions and the manipulation of retail
investors in China: An analysis of stock splits, Journal of Financial Economics, 145(2022),
no.3, 762-787.
[17] Zaremba, A., S. Okon, R. Asyngier and L. Schroeter, Reverse splits in international stock
markets: Reconciling the T evidence on long-term returns, Research in International
Business and Finance 47(2019), 552-562.
[18] Hwang, J.K., Y. Dimkpah and A. I. Ogwu., Do Reverse Stock Splits Benefit Long-term
Shareholders?, International Advances in Economic Research 18(2012), 439-449.
[19] Iqbal, A., S. Akbar and R. K. Shiwakoti, The long run performance of UK firms making
multiple rights issues, International Review of Financial Analysis 28(2013), 156-165.
[20] Huang, L., W. Li, H. Wang and L. Wu, Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in
earnings forecast, International Review of Economics and Finance 78(2022), 643-659.
[21] Lei, X., Y. Zhou and X. Zhu, Capital gains, illiquidity, and stock returns, Pacific-Basin
Finance Journal 25(2013), 273-293.
[22] Escobar, A., J. Moreno and S. Mu ́nera, A Technical Analysis Indicator Based On Fuzzy
Logic, Electronic Notes in Theoretical Computer Science 292(2013), 27-37.
[23] Steve, N., Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the
Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East, Prentice Hall Press,2001.
[24] Ming-Ming, L. and L. Siok-Hwa, The profitability of the simple moving averages and
trading range breakout in the Asian stock markets, Journal of Asian Economics
17(2006), no.1, 144-170.
[25] Atkinson, K. E. and W. Han, Elementary Numerical Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, New
Jersey, 2004.
[26] Burden, R.L. and J. D. Faires, Numerical Analysis, Richard Stratton, Boston, 2010.
[27] Briand, T. and P. Monasse, Theory and Practice of Image B-Spline Interpolation, IPOL
Journal 8(2018), 99-141.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/ijost.vXiX
p- ISSN 2528-1410 e- ISSN 2527-8045