Population Dynamics Student Name/s:

Zitzmann, Riaño, Barbosa y Niño

11C

Population Dynamics:

PART 1: Introduction to Population Dynamics

Open Population Dynamics - read through the introduction on the first page.
1. Describe a specific question or problem related to population dynamics that interests you and why it interests
you.

A specific question that interests me in population dynamics is the impact of human population growth on natural
resources and ecosystems. This question intrigues us because understanding the relationship between human
population dynamics and the environment is crucial for sustainable development and conservation efforts.

2. Do you think the question or problem you described could be investigated using a mathematical population
model? Why or why not?

The problem of the impact of human population growth on natural resources and ecosystems can be investigated
using a mathematical population model because it allows for the systematic study of population dynamics and their
interactions with the environment. Also, it can give us a deeper understanding and investigation as it could provide
a quantitative analysis and simulating scenarios which can make our investigation more complete and have a better
look at the problem stated.

Exploring the Exponential Growth Model

Open the “Exponential growth model” tab and read the “Introduction” section.
3. In your own words explain “Exponential growth”

Exponential growth means something is growing really fast and keeps getting faster as it gets bigger. It's like
when you double something every hour, and the numbers get much bigger quickly. It happens in different areas
like biology, economics, and technology, and is connected to things that make it grow even more. But it can't
keep going on forever because there are limits that stop it.

4. The end of the “Introduction” describes how you could use a continuous-time, exponential growth model to
simulate an E. coli population growing in a lab. Describe another specific population and situation that you
could simulate with this type of model.

The simulation of the transmission of a viral infection in a closed environment, such as a school or workplace, is
another application of the continuous-time, exponential growth model. The model in this simulation maintains track
of the number of infections over time. It takes into account things like how many people were first infected, how
quickly the virus spreads, and how quickly people recover. The model demonstrates how the virus spreads quickly
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 Population Dynamics Student Name/s:
through the population as the simulation is running. The exponential growth portion of the model takes into
account the fact that each infected individual might spread the virus to several additional people, accelerating the
rate of transmission. Researchers can investigate various scenarios and tactics using this model.With this is possible
to come up with solutions or understand ways to control the outbreak and make a public intervention to prevent
the spread of the virus.

5. Complete the following table to explain the biological meanings of the symbols in the exponential growth
model. For each explanation, give a specific example using the population you described above.
Symbol Biological Meaning Specific Example
N Population size (number of individuals) The number of E. coli cells in the laboratory
population is represented by N.
t Time (usually measured in days, weeks, or The number of days since the bacterial colony
years) was inoculated on the agar plate is represented
by t.
dN/dt The derivative of the population size with The rate at which the number of bacteria
respect to time, representing the rate of increases or decreases per day is represented by
population growth dN/dt.
r Intrinsic growth rate (per capita growth rate) The average rate at which each E. coli cell
divides and produces offspring per day is
represented by r.
N0 Initial population size (at time t=0) The initial number of bacterial cells inoculated
on the agar plate is represented by N0.

6. Both dN/dt and r are types of growth rates. What are the differences between them?

The distinction between dN/dt and r is that dN/dt denotes the rate of change in population size at a given instant,
showing whether the population is growing or shrinking. It calculates the rate of change over time. The average per
capita growth rate, or r, on the other hand, reflects the average rate at which each member of the population
contributes to population increase during a certain period. It analyzes the population's typical pace of change over
time.

Proceed to the “Simulator” section for the exponential growth model.

7. No units are shown for the numbers in the “Settings” section. This is because each of these numbers can
have many possible units. Give an example of possible units for each of the following:
a.
N0
b.
t
c.
r, using the units for t you gave above.

8. Examine both Plot 1 and Plot 2 (below Plot 1).

a.
In Plot 1, what variables do the x- and y-axes represent?

b.
In Plot 2, what variables do the x- and y-axes represent?

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8. Set N0 = 50, r = 0.5, and t = 5.

a. What is the population size at this point?

b. What is the population growth rate at this point?

9. Set r = 0.1, then gradually increase r by clicking the up-arrow to the right of the number. You may need to
hover over the number to see the arrow.
a. Examine Plot 1. As you increase r, what happens to the curve of population size over time?

b. Examine Plot 2. As you increase r, what happens to the curve of population growth rate vs. population
size?

10. Set r = 0.5 and N0 = 5, then gradually increase N0 by clicking the up-arrow to the right of the number.
a. Examine Plot 1. How does the curve of population size over time change if you start with a smaller
number of individuals (e.g., N0 = 5) compared to a larger number of individuals (e.g., N0 = 100)?

b. Examine Plot 2. How does the curve of population growth rate vs. population size change if you start
with a smaller number of individuals compared to a larger number?

11. List one combination of values for r and N0 that produces each of the following patterns for population size
over time. (There are many possible answers.) Use a time range with a “Min” of 0 and a “Max” of 10.
Pattern Value of r Value of N0
A long period of what appears to be almost no growth.
(The curve in Plot 1 looks almost flat.)
A long period of slow but clearly accelerating growth.
(The curve in Plot 1 starts to become steeper at the end.)
Extremely fast growth from the very beginning.

12. All models have strengths and limitations. A strength of a model could be something that the model
simulates very well or something that makes it easy to use. A limitation could be something that the model
does not simulate or an important process that it does not include.
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 Population Dynamics Student Name/s:
a. What is one strength of the exponential growth model you explored?

The simplicity and clarity of the exponential growth concept are among its advantages. The population size at
various time periods may be easily calculated since the model assumes a constant growth rate across time. It offers
a precise illustration of how a population may increase quickly and unrestrainedly and enables straightforward
predictions of future expansion.

b. What is one limitation of the exponential growth model you explored?

The exponential growth model has the drawback of not taking environmental limits or limiting variables into
consideration. Populations are frequently constrained by elements like the availability of resources, rivalry,
predation, illness, or other ecological interactions. Due to the exponential growth model's assumption of boundless
resources and disregard for their effects, population dynamics in real-world circumstances are inaccurately
predicted and depicted. As a result, it is unable to effectively represent the dynamics and complexity of real
populations.

Exploring the Logistic Growth Model

Go to the “Logistic growth model” section and read the introduction.
13. Summarize the main differences between the exponential and logistic growth models.

In the exponential growth paradigm, population growth is unrestricted and accelerates quickly. The logistic growth
model, on the other hand, takes into account how limiting variables may affect population increase. The growth rate
declines until it stabilizes when the population size approaches the carrying capacity (K). The logistic growth model is
the only one that uses the term carrying capacity. The carrying capacity (K) measures the largest population that can
be supported in a particular area, taking into account resources and available space. Carrying capacity is not taken
into account in the exponential growth model since population increase is infinite.
An exponential growth curve begins gently, grows abruptly, and then levels off. Over time, the population grows
enormously. The growth pattern in the logistic growth model initially mimics exponential growth but gradually levels
out as it gets closer to the carrying capacity. When the population's growth rate hits zero, a stable equilibrium has
been reached.

14. Explain what the carrying capacity (K) is in your own words.

The carrying capacity (K) of an ecosystem or habitat is the largest population that it can sustainably and naturally
support over a prolonged period of time. It stands for the equilibrium point where the population can be sustained
without causing resource depletion, environmental deterioration, or the collapse of the ecosystem. The carrying
capacity takes into consideration things like the accessibility of resources like food, water, shelter, and space, as well
as interactions between organisms and their environment.

Proceed to the “Simulator” section for the logistic growth model.

15. Set N0 = 1, r = 0.6, and K = 1000. Also set the “Max” value for t on the x-axis of Plot 1 to 25.
a. Examine Plot 1. What happens to the population size over time?
The population starts increasing exponentially until it reaches its maximum capacity, in that way, the population
stops increasing and stays at a constant population below the carrying capacity of the ecosystem.

b. Examine Plot 2. For what values of N is the population growth rate almost zero (for example, 0.01 or
lower)?
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Values of N from 0-0.5 and 950-1000 have a growth rate of almost zero, if not equal to zero.

c. Set N0 = 1500. What happens to the population size over time now? For what values of N is the
population growth rate almost zero?

In this case, as the population is already over the carrying capacity, there must be an equilibrium; for
this reason, the population starts decreasing until it reaches the carrying capacity. Most of the time, the
growth rate is negative, and when it goes near zero, it is for values such as N= 1001

16. Write a 300 - 500 word explanation about the theme of population dynamics, explaining your
understanding of the topic.

Population dynamics is the study of how populations of living things change over time. It looks at things like how
many new individuals are born, how many die, and how many move to different places. People who study
population dynamics want to understand how these changes happen and what causes them. The size of a
population can either get bigger or smaller depending on how many new individuals are born (birth rates) and how
many die (death rates). These birth and death rates can be influenced by things like people's ages, how healthy they
are, how much money they have, and the customs and beliefs of their society.To study population dynamics,
researchers look at information about people like their ages, genders, races, education, and whether they are
married or not. This helps them understand what the population is like and make predictions about how it might
change in the future. This information is important for people who make decisions about things like cities,
economies, and the environment. One important idea in population dynamics is called the demographic transition.
This idea says that as societies become more modern, birth and death rates change. At first, both rates are high, so
the population grows slowly. But as healthcare, living conditions, and education improve, death rates go down. This
causes the population to grow faster. Eventually, birth rates also go down because people have access to
contraception, education, and women have more power to make choices. This transition has big effects on things
like jobs, resources, and how people are taken care of. Population dynamics also looks at migration, which is when
people move from one place to another. Migration can affect how populations grow, the different types of people in
a place, and the mix of cultures. People move for many reasons, like looking for better jobs, escaping political
problems, or because of changes in the environment. Understanding migration is important for people who make
decisions about where people should live and work. Population dynamics also has to do with the environment.
Changes in population size and how populations are made up can affect things like plants and animals, the
availability of resources, and how stable ecosystems are. If a population grows too fast, it can use up too many
resources, harm habitats, and make pollution worse. If a population gets smaller, it can have bad effects on things
like the variety of genes in a species or the balance between predators and prey. People who want to protect the
environment think about population dynamics when they make plans for taking care of nature.

Part 2: African Wildlife Case Study

INTRODUCTION
Mathematical models can be used to answer questions, solve problems, and make predictions about all kinds of
populations. In this activity, you’ll use the exponential and logistic growth models in the Population Dynamics.

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 Population Dynamics Student Name/s:
Waterbuck
Africa is home to many different animals, including large antelope called waterbuck that live near lakes and
rivers. In certain areas, waterbuck populations are declining due to hunting and habitat loss.
Let’s investigate the waterbuck population in Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique. In the 1970s and 1980s,
Mozambique experienced an intense civil war, and most of the waterbuck were killed to provide food and
money for soldiers. After the war ended in 1992, many people worked together to rebuild the park. Scientists
developed mathematical models to better understand how the park’s waterbuck population recovered
afterward, and to help make decisions about managing this population in the future.
1. What are the advantages of using a mathematical model to study a population rather than just observing
the population?

There are a number of benefits to using a mathematical model to examine populations as opposed to just watching
them. First, controlled studies can be carried out in a virtual environment without harming real populations,
adjusting variables and examining various scenarios. Second, utilizing historical data, mathematical models can
forecast how populations will change over time, aiding in future planning. Thirdly, by exposing patterns an
relationships we can’t see, these models help in understanding the intricate interplay between many components.
Comparing mathematical models to real-world studies also saves time and money. Additionally, they enable
sensitivity analysis, which examines the effect of particular variables on population dynamics.

An early model of the waterbuck population was based on the exponential growth model. The population’s
maximum per capita growth rate (r) was estimated as the difference between its per capita birth rate (b), the
number of births per individual per unit time, and its per capita death rate (d), the number of deaths per
individual per unit time.
𝑟 =𝑏−𝑑

2. At the start of the recovery period, the waterbuck population contained only 140 individuals. The population
had 0.67 births per year per individual and 0.06 deaths per year per individual.
a. What is the maximum per capita growth rate (r) for this population? Include units in your answer.

r = 0.67 - 0.06 = 0.61 births per year per individual

The maximum per capita growth rate (r) for this waterbuck population is 0.61 births per year per individual.

b. What is the initial population size (N0) for this population? Include units in your answer.

The initial population size for this population is 140 individuals as we are given that the at the start of the recovery
period this population contained 140 individuals, which is the inicial population we´re taking into account in this
case.

3. Based on this model, how will the waterbuck population grow over time? Will the population ever stop
growing or get smaller?

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Based on the model, waterbucks' numbers will grow over time, but this depends on the exponential growth model
and available data to keep analyzing this growth. The maximum per capita growth rate (r) of 0.61 births per year
indicates that the population is growing positively, with more births than deaths. So, this means that if the birth rate
exceeds the death rate, the population will continue to increase. It is also important to remember that the
exponential growth model operates under the ideal conditions of infinite resources and constant growth.
Waterbuck population, as any other species expansion can actually be influenced by a number of factors, including
habitat availability, food, predation, competition, and human activities such as hunting and habitat degradation.
These factors can impact the birth and death rates, leading to deviations from the exponential growth predicted by
the model.

4. Do you think this model reflects how the waterbuck population will grow in real life? Why or why not?

We don’t believe that this simulated model would reflect the waterbuck population growth in real life. To
understand better waterbuck population dynamics, it would be crucial and strictly necessary to include other
variables in the model, different from the ones we already have. By considering the effects of limiting constraints
and ecological interactions, a more comprehensive model can be developed that better captures population
dynamics and development observed in real-world settings.

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