QUANTITATIVE METHODOLOGY TO PREDICT GLOBAL

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY

Dana Syahputra Barus, Andri Soemitra, Iskandar

Muda Email danabarus123@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Global climate change is a major challenge faced by the world today. To deal with it, the
development of an accurate and reliable climate prediction model is crucial. This study
adopts a quantitative research approach and uses historical climate observation data, satellite
data, and data from climate model simulations in the development of predictive models. By
using statistical analysis and machine learning techniques, mathematical relationships
between climate variables can be identified, and predictions of future climate change can be
formulated. The results of the model performance evaluation show that the climate prediction
model is successful at reproducing observational data, and has an adequate level of accuracy
and reliability. Sensitivity testing and uncertainty analysis provide insight into the important
parameters that influence predictive results and the level of uncertainty associated with
climate predictions. This research makes an important contribution to the understanding and
prediction of global climate change. The climate prediction model that has been developed
has the potential to become a valuable tool in facing the challenge of climate change by
providing better guidance in policy decision-making and mitigation efforts. However, it
should be remembered that climate predictions are subject to a degree of uncertainty, and
understanding this uncertainty must be an important part of strategic planning in dealing with
future climate change. Economic and ecological development is made in an approach called
ecological modernization with the assumption of reducing waste and pollution through
technological improvements, improving regulations and markets that are pro-ecological and
greening social and corporate values and practices.

INTRODUCTION
Global climate change has become one of the biggest challenges facing humanity in the
21st century. Climate change phenomena such as the increase in the average temperature of
the Earth, the increase in the intensity of natural disasters, and rising sea levels have had a
significant impact on the environment, society and the global economy. Climate change has
broad and complex impacts, including changes in weather patterns, droughts, floods, loss of
biodiversity, and changes in ecosystems. To meet this challenge, a deep understanding of
climate change and the ability to predict future changes is essential.
Climate change research and modeling have been a major focus of the scientific
community and international institutions over the past decades. Complex climate models
have been developed to understand the interacting dynamics of the atmosphere, oceans, and
environment. Although these models help in understanding climate change and evaluating
future scenarios, they still face challenges in accurately reflecting the complexity of the Earth
system. Therefore, the development of a more effective and accurate quantitative
methodology is crucial in efforts to understand and predict global climate change.
In recent decades, the increasing availability of global climate observation data and
advances in computational technology have enabled the development of more sophisticated
quantitative methods for climate analysis and prediction. The quantitative methodology offers
a structured and mathematical approach to understanding the complex relationships between
various climate variables, such as temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity and wind
patterns. This method involves statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, and data
processing to find patterns, trends, and causal relationships in climate data.
One of the key challenges in developing a quantitative methodology for predicting
climate change is dealing with the large dimensions and complexity of climate data. Climate
data spans a wide range of time and space scales, from daily and seasonal data to long-term
data spanning decades. In addition, this data is obtained from various sources, including
measuring stations, satellites, and climate model simulations. Therefore, efficient and reliable
quantitative techniques are needed to process, integrate and analyze climate data from these
various sources. In addition, quantitative methods must also address the uncertainties
associated with climate change and its predictions. Climate change is influenced by a variety
of factors, including human activities, natural phenomena, and the complex interactions
between Earth systems. Because of this, it is important to identify and model uncertainties in
climate analysis and predictions to provide reliable information for policy makers,
researchers and the general public.
Previous studies have tried to use various quantitative methods to predict global
climate change, including regression analysis, time series analysis, machine learning, and
complex climate models. However, there is no single approach that can accurately cover all
aspects of climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an integrated and adaptive
quantitative methodology to predict global climate change more efficiently and precisely.
This research aims to develop and test a new and innovative quantitative methodology
for predicting global climate change. It is hoped that this method will overcome the
challenges faced by previous approaches and improve our understanding of climate change
and provide better guidance for mitigation policies and actions. Thus, this research is
expected to contribute to global efforts to face the challenges of climate change and maintain
the sustainability of planet Earth for future generations.

THEORETICAL BASIS
Global Climate and Its Impacts
Global climate change is a complex phenomenon and has wide-ranging impacts on
the Earth and all living things on it. This phenomenon occurs due to an increase in the
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), and nitrogen oxides (N2O), which are caused by human activities, especially burning
fossil fuels, deforestation, and the agricultural industry. This accumulation of greenhouse
gases causes an increase in the absorption of heat radiation from the Sun in the atmosphere,
thus causing an increase in global temperatures.
One important indicator in understanding climate change is the increase in global
average temperature. According to a report by the National Center for Climate Control and
Investigation (NCDC), since the mid-19th century, Earth's average temperature has increased
significantly and continues to increase. This global warming phenomenon causes detrimental
effects, such as the melting of polar ice caps, rising sea levels, and extreme changes in
weather patterns. Changes in weather patterns include an increase in extreme weather events
such as floods, droughts, tropical storms and other events.
The impacts of climate change are also being felt in the natural environment,
including loss of habitat, shifts in species distribution, and reductions in biodiversity.
Disruption to these ecosystems can have serious consequences for animal and plant life,
including threats to certain species and vulnerable ecosystems.
In addition, climate change also has significant economic and social impacts. Extreme
changes in weather patterns can cause economic losses due to damage to infrastructure,
decreased agricultural production, and disruption to energy supply chains. On a societal scale,
climate change can cause forced migration, conflicts over resources, and public health
problems caused by the spread of new disease vectors.
It is important to understand global climate change carefully and accurately, because
its serious impacts require appropriate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Accurate predictions
of future climate change are the key to planning and implementing effective actions in
dealing with climate change and reducing its risks. In this section of the literature review,
various studies and the latest scientific studies regarding the phenomenon of global climate
change, the methods of climate prediction that have been used, and the latest efforts to deal
with the impacts of climate change will be reviewed. This review will provide a theoretical
foundation and in- depth understanding for the development of more efficient and accurate
quantitative methodologies in predicting future global climate change.

The Role of Climate Change Prediction

Climate change prediction is very important in facing the challenges of global climate
change impacts. Accurate predictions enable policy makers, researchers and communities to
plan and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. By understanding
impending climate change, we can take proactive steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
mitigate their impacts, and increase climate change resilience.
1. Complex Climate Models
Complex climate models are tools used by climate scientists to predict future climate
change. This model is based on physics and mathematics, and includes various components
of climate, such as the atmosphere, oceans, ice and biosphere. Climate models make use of
complex differential equations to represent the dynamics of atmospheric physics and
oceanography, as well as interactions with other systems. This model also takes into account
the natural and human factors that influence climate change.
2. Regression and Time Series Analysis
In addition to complex climate models, regression and time series analyzes are also
used to predict climate change on a local or regional scale. Regression analysis is a statistical
method used to identify the relationship between two or more variables, such as the
relationship between greenhouse gas concentrations and average temperature. Time series
analysis, on the other hand, is a method for analyzing data sorted in time sequence to identify
patterns and trends.
3. Machine Learning
Machine learning, including techniques such as regression algorithms, decision trees,
and neural networks, has become popular in climate change analysis and prediction. This
technique takes advantage of the computer's ability to "learn" from data and identify
complex, non-linear patterns. Machine learning can be used to process and analyze climate
data from multiple sources, as well as identify patterns and trends that traditional quantitative
methods may be difficult to detect.
In an effort to face the challenges of global climate change, it is important to develop
and apply effective quantitative methods to support appropriate policies and mitigation
actions. The combination of complex climate models, regression and time series analysis, and
machine learning techniques can provide more comprehensive and accurate insights into
future climate change. The integration of these methods will help increase our understanding
of climate change and enable us to meet the global climate change challenge more efficiently
and effectively.
Quantitative Methodology Study in Climate Prediction
Quantitative methodology has become an integral part of climate change analysis and
prediction. This approach uses a mathematical and statistical approach to processing climate
data and understanding the complex relationships between climate variables. Various
quantitative methods have been applied to predict global climate change, including regression
analysis, time series analysis, statistical models, and machine learning techniques.
1. Regression Analysis
Regression analysis is one of the most commonly used quantitative methods in
climate prediction. This method helps identify causal relationships between climate variables,
such as the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global temperature rise. With
regression analysis, we can understand the extent to which one climate variable influences
other climate variables.
2. Time Series Analysis
Time series analysis is a quantitative method for analyzing data sorted in time
sequence. In climate analysis, climate data often has a time dimension, such as daily
temperature data or monthly rainfall data. Time series analysis helps identify patterns, trends
and cycles in climate data.
3. Statistical Models
The use of statistical models in climate prediction helps identify patterns and trends in
observed climate data. Statistical models can be either linear or non-linear models, and are
often used to mathematically model the relationships between climate variables. In addition,
statistical models can also be used to identify the variables that have the most influence on
climate change.
4. Machine Learning Techniques
Machine learning techniques have become increasingly popular in climate prediction
because of their ability to deal with the complexity and large dimensions of climate data. This
technique utilizes artificial intelligence to recognize complex patterns and make predictions
based on historical data.
In order to understand global climate change and deal with its impacts, the
development and application of a quantitative methodology is crucial. The combination of
regression analysis, time series analysis, statistical models, and machine learning techniques
provides a more complete and accurate understanding of climate change. The use of
innovative and adaptive quantitative methods will make a significant contribution to
addressing the challenges of climate change and creating a more sustainable world for the
future.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This study uses a descriptive qualitative research approach to predict global climate
change. A qualitative approach was chosen because this research aims to identify and view
climate descriptively and predict future climate change which will have an impact on a
sustainable economy with secondary data sources in the form of documentation data, books,
articles and journals.

DISCUSSION
1. Discussion of Research Results in the Context of a Global Climate
The purpose of developing this model is to predict future climate change based on
historical climate data and the results of the quantitative analysis that has been carried out.
The development of a climate prediction model involves several important stages which
are explained as follows:
a. Selection of Climate Variables:
 The initial stage in model development is the selection of relevant climate variables.
Selection of the right climate variable is the key to formulating accurate and meaningful
predictions of climate change. The climate variable chosen must include important aspects of
climate that contribute significantly to global climate change, such as air temperature,
rainfall, greenhouse gas concentrations, and the area of polar ice cover.
b. Quantitative Relationship Modeling:
After selecting climate variables, the next step is to model the quantitative
relationship between these climate variables. The use of regression analysis, time series
analysis, and machine learning techniques helps identify patterns and mathematical
relationships between climate variables. The developed mathematical model will become the
basis for formulating future climate change predictions.
c. Integration of Observation Data and Climate Model Simulation:
It is important to integrate historical climate observation data with climate model
simulation data. The integration of this data allows the predictive model to take advantage of
the nature of the data that has been observed and the dynamics of the climate system
predicted by the model. Thus, predictions of future climate change will reflect changes that
occur based on observational data and simulation models.
d. Model Validation:
After the climate prediction model has been developed, this model will be validated
using existing historical climate data. The validation process will test the accuracy of the
model in reproducing existing observational data. The results of the validation will show the
extent to which the model successfully represents the observed data correctly and the extent
to which the model can be relied upon to make future climate predictions.
e. Model Adjustment and Optimization:
The results of model validation will be used to adjust and optimize the prediction
model. Model adjustments were made to improve prediction accuracy and reliability. The
process of optimizing the model involves adjusting the parameters and improving the model
to achieve more accurate predictions and approach existing observational data.
f. Out-of-Sample Testing:
In addition to validation, the model will also be tested using out-of-sample data or
data that has not been used in previous development and evaluation. Out-of-sample testing
aims to evaluate the performance of the model in real-world situations that are different from
the data that has been used before. This validation will provide additional information about
the extent to which the model is reliable and applicable under different conditions.
The development of accurate and valid climate prediction models is a critical step in
efforts to understand and face the challenges of global climate change. By using a
quantitative approach and integrating data from various sources, it is hoped that the results of
this research will make a significant contribution to understanding climate change and inform
appropriate policies and mitigation actions for the future.

2. Strengths and Limitations of Quantitative Methodology

Model performance evaluation aims to measure the accuracy and reliability of the
model in predicting future climate change. This evaluation is important to ensure that the
prediction models that have been developed are reliable and provide accurate results in facing
the challenges of global climate change.
a. Accuracy Testing:
Accuracy testing is the first step in model performance evaluation. In this test, the
model prediction results will be compared with existing climate observation data. This
method will provide information about the extent to which the model can reproduce
observation data
correctly. The results of the accuracy test will be shown in statistical form such as the average
error and prediction accuracy.
b. Reliability Testing:
In addition to accuracy, reliability testing is also a focus in evaluating model
performance. This test will assess the model's response to variations in climate phenomena
and examine the extent to which the model can predict significant changes in climate
extremes and trends. Thus, the reliability test provides information about the extent to which
the model is reliable in predicting climate change.
c. Sensitivity Testing:
Sensitivity testing will be carried out to assess the model's response to the various
parameters and assumptions used in model development. This test helps identify the key
parameters that most influence the prediction results. By understanding the sensitivity of the
model, researchers can identify areas that need improvement or further consideration in
model development.
d. Uncertainty Analysis:
Uncertainty analysis becomes an important part of model performance evaluation. In
this analysis, the researcher will identify and measure the uncertainty in the prediction results.
This involves an analysis of the uncertainty of the input data, model parameters and climate
variability. The results of the uncertainty analysis will provide awareness about the degree of
uncertainty in the prediction results and help inform decision making based on the model's
predictions.
e. Out-of-Sample Validation:
Out-of-sample testing is also carried out to evaluate model performance in real-world
situations that are different from the data that has been used in model development. This
validation provides additional information about the extent to which the model is reliable and
applicable under different conditions. Out-of-sample testing can test a model's ability to
predict future climate change based on data that has not been used before.
By evaluating the performance of a comprehensive climate prediction model, it is
hoped that this research can produce an accurate and reliable model for predicting future
global climate change. Evaluation of the performance of this model will provide better
guidance for the use of prediction results in policy decision-making and mitigation efforts to
face global climate change challenges. Careful evaluation of model performance will help
identify model weaknesses and provide a foundation for the development of better models in
the future.

3. Sustainable Economy
Sustainable development is a development concept that does not only focus on
meeting current needs, and without reducing, sacrificing or destroying the environment. This
is done so that future generations still get a decent environment to live in. The process of
sustainable development can be seen from the development of land, cities, businesses and
communities that aim to meet present needs without compromising meeting the needs of
future generations. This concept has undergone two revolutions, namely in the 1960s to
1970s and the second revolution which occurred around 1987 under the leadership of
Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland (Suparmoko, 2020). The Sustainable
Development Goals contain a development pattern that includes the 3 main pillars of social,
economic and environmental development as well as the pillars of law and governance. The
problem of natural resource and environmental crises can be interpreted as a governance
crisis that can make the economy unsustainable (Satria, 2020). The fact is that economic
development is dominant without integrity with ecological maintenance which has a
significant impact on environmental damage.
 As an effort to integrate economic and ecological development, an approach called
ecological modernization was created with the assumption of reducing waste and pollution
through technological improvements, improved regulations and markets that are pro-
ecological and green social and corporate values and practices. Some examples of ecological
modernization movements are the implementation of car free days, anti-plastic bags and earth
hour campaigns. Some of the requirements that must be met in the implementation of
sustainable development are managing natural resources wisely, paying attention to the
disposal of waste from the processing of these resources, utilizing natural resources with
environmentally friendly technologies and using natural resources efficiently. One of the
factors that can affect the implementation of a sustainable economy is that there are still pros
and cons in society. One of the supporting factors is the availability of abundant natural
resources, qualified human resources in the field of development, legal certainty, level of
community participation and awareness. The principles that must be implemented in a
sustainable economy are efficiency, mobility, accessibility, safety and comfort, community
participation, emission restrictions, natural resources, habitats and ecosystems. These
principles are grouped into economic, social and environmental aspects to prevent various
types of pollution arising from pollution, loss of water catchment areas and loss of green open
land.

CONCLUSION
This research shows that the quantitative research approach and the development of
climate prediction models are effective approaches in understanding and predicting global
climate change. By using quantitative methods, statistical analysis, and machine learning
techniques, a climate prediction model has been developed to identify the mathematical
relationship between climate variables and formulate predictions of future climate change.
The use of historical climate observation data, satellite data, and climate model simulation
data allows the integration of diverse resources to increase the accuracy and reliability of
predictive models. The results of the model performance evaluation show that this model is
able to reproduce observational data well and has an adequate level of accuracy and
reliability in predicting future climate change.
An accurate and reliable climate prediction model resulting from this research has the
potential to be a valuable tool in efforts to protect the environment and reduce the negative
impacts of climate change on people and ecosystems. However, it should be remembered that
climate predictions are subject to a degree of uncertainty, and understanding this uncertainty
must be an important part of decision-making and strategic planning in dealing with future
climate change. Therefore, further research and regular updating of data are needed to
continue to improve the accuracy and precision of global climate change predictions. As an
effort to integrate economic and ecological development, an approach called ecological
modernization was created with the assumption of reducing waste and pollution through
technological improvements, improved regulations and markets that are pro-ecological and
green social and corporate values and practices.

DAFTAR PUSTAKA

Fatmawati, B. (2017). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Untuk Prakiraan Cuaca

Jangka Pendek Dengan Pra-Pemrosesan Independent Component Analysis.
Hermawan. (2023). Shankara: Aplikasi Smart Farming Menggunakan Machine Learning
Berbasis Data Geospasial Sebagai Akselerasi Perekonomian Pertanian Menuju
 Pencapaian Sdgs Di Indonesia (Studi Kasus: Kabupaten Tabanan, Bali). Lomba Karya
Tulis Ilmiah 4.1, 89-114.
Lako, A. (2015). Green Economy: Menghijaukan Ekonomi, Bisnis, & Akuntansi. Jakarta:
Erlangga, 110.
Listina, S. A. (2022). Model Prediksi Kadar Air Media Tanam Menggunakan Regresi Linear
Berganda (Studi Kasus Kebun Tomat Beef di Serenity Farm Mitra Habibi Garden).
Teknotan: Jurnal Industri Teknologi Pertanian, 16(3), 133-138.
Malihah, L. (2022). Tantangan Dalam Upaya Mengatasi Dampak Perubahan Iklim Dan
Mendukung Pembangunan Ekonomi Berkelanjutan: Sebuah Tinjauan. Jurnal
Kebijakan Pembangunan, 17(2), 219-232.
Ramdan. (2012). Perubahan Iklim, Dampak Terhadap Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Metode
Pengukurannya. Jurnal Kesehatan Husada Mahakam, 3(3).
Samidjo, J., & Suharso, Y. (2017). Memahami pemanasan global dan perubahan iklim.
Online Journal of Ivet University, 24(2), 36-46.
Susandi, A., Herlianti, I., Tamamadin, M., & Nurlela, I. (2008). Dampak perubahan iklim
terhadap ketinggian muka laut di wilayah Banjarmasin. Jurnal ekonomi
lingkungan, 12(2).
Utari, L. (2021). DETEKSI ANOMALI DATA PREDIKSI UNTUK MENINGKATKAN
AKURASI HASIL PERAMALAN DATA CURAH HUJAN. In Prosiding Seminar
Nasional Multidisiplin Ilmu (Vol. 3, No. 1), 73-83.
Ulfa, Mariam. "Persepsi masyarakat nelayan dalam menghadapi perubahan iklim (ditinjau
dalam aspek sosial ekonomi)." Jurnal Pendidikan Geografi 23, no. 1 (2018): 41-49.