Research and Forecast Report
Research and Forecast Report
Research and Forecast Report
Summary
Recent Trends Prognosis
In the past decade Montenegro has shown considerable With the country directing its inflow of investments into
growth, and many consider the country one of the fastest tourism, it is very likely that new structures will continue to be
rising tourism markets in the world. With its stable economic built to accommodate the demands of the market. The new
growth over the past few years, it is sure to continue to attract road infrastructure and air connections should allow not only
foreign investments in the foreseeable future. The only a better and faster connection between the southern and
downside of such trends is that development has largely been northern region, which would again present a valuable
concentrated on retail and hospitality sectors, whereas the opportunity for new projects in the northern parts of the
industrial market has been largely left in the backdrop. country, but this will largely depend on external factors.
Economic Overview
Summary & Prognosis Unemployment (% of active population)
Source: IMF
Source: IMF
Employed percentage of workforce per sector > Taxation: The tax system that was reformed in 2001, made
Montenegro’s tax regime one of the most competitive in the
region and Europe as a whole. The rates of significant taxes
are as follows:
8.7% Agriculture
> Personal Income Tax 9%.
18.8% > Corporation Tax: 9%.
Industry > VAT: 21%, 7% (includes hotel accommodation) and 0%.
> Withholding Tax: 9%.
72.5%
> Social Security Charges: Employer 9.8% and Employee
Services 24%.
> Property tax is levied at proportional rates from between
0.1% and 1.0%.
Source: Montenegro Statistical Office, Labor Force Survey 2rd Q2018
> Property transfer tax of 3% of the property’s value is
> Foreign Trade: Major export partners in Montenegro in
payable by the buyer.
2018 were Serbia (around 21.2% of total exports), Hungary
(12.7%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (7.6%). The major
import partners were Serbia (19.6% of total imports), China Prognosis
(10.7%) and Germany (8.8%).
Montenegro has significant growth potential. GDP grew by
> Exchange Rate: Montenegro adopted the German mark 4.7% in 2017 (IMF forecasts were set at 2.5%) and is forecast
in 1999, then the euro on its introduction in 2002 by the IMF to grow by 2.8% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. The
rate of growth in the medium to long term will be influenced
Year End 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 by progress towards membership of the EU and is dependent
on addressing a number of challenges. EBRD and the
US$ per € 1.37 1.23 1.15 1.11 1.07 1.14
government have identified the following challenges to be
Russian addressed:
45.3 72.3 68.07 74.14 63.9 74.9
Rubles/ €
> Diversifying and expanding the economic base through
Source: European Central Bank increased competitiveness, including targeted support to
> Employment: 85.5% of the total economically active work SMEs in sectors with growth potential and further
force (280,700) was in employment and 14.4% were strengthening of the financial system.
unemployed as of September 2018. Employment of > Supporting sustainable tourism, property and associated
expatriates is regulated by the Law on Employment of environmental and infrastructure needs. The tourism
Foreign Citizens. For an expatriate employee a work permit, sector is a major potential driver of economic growth. This
permanent or temporary residence permit and an involves addressing the lack of institutional and
employment contract are obligatory. The Government has an infrastructure, and avoiding the environmental risks of
annual maximum quota of foreigners to be employed. Foreign further tourism development.
employees are entitled to equal treatment as local
employees. > Introducing energy security and efficiency, and regional
integration of energy markets.
Thousands
accounts in excess of 10% of total GDP, although local
estimates consider it to be higher. Tourism policies and
strategies, development, operations and marketing are the 1,492 1,517 1,713 1,814 2,000
responsibility of the Ministry of Sustainable Development and
Tourism, with the National Tourism Organization responsible
for planning and implementation tourism strategies,
promotion and enhancing the tourism product. Local tourism
Arrivals Overnight stays
organizations are active in 19 municipalities. The Tourism
Development Strategy to 2020, which was formulated in 2008
with international expert assistance, guides all aspects of Tourist Arrivals and Nights: Foreign tourism (nights and
tourism and its development. This followed a tourism master arrivals) has grown annually, with the exception of 2009 when
plan that was adopted by government in 2001. tourist nights declined, due to the global economic crisis.
Domestic tourism has fluctuated, but has declined in recent
Montenegro’s tourism product is subdivided into six clusters, years. Nevertheless, the number of overnight stays in
whose scenic and cultural traits differ from each other, in the Montenegro has grown steadily over the years, with a large
Tourism Strategy. increase in 2016, a trend that continued in 2017 and 2018.
> The rocky coastline from Lustica to Ulcinj, with many bays Accommodation is divided in two groups, collective and
and beaches, is the major beach tourism destination and private accommodation. At this moment, no reliable
includes Budva. information is available for the total number of tourist arrivals
and nights spent in 2018, but monthly reports from the
> Ulcinj, which has an expansive sandy beach, with Ada Statistical Office indicate further growth for the summer
Bojana and Valdanos. season (from May to September) by 10.9% in the number of
> The Bay of Kotor, a cultural area surrounded by cliffs, arrivals, and 6.9% in the number of nights spent.
together with Tivat Bay and the Lustica peninsula. The natural
Collective
and cultural-historic features of the Kotor region are a 2014 2015 2016 2017
Accommodation
UNESCO World Heritage Site. Tourist Arrivals 000s
> Cetinje, of historic significance, and Skadar Lake, an area Foreign 595 636 708 843
of natural beauty. Domestic 81 98 101 112
> Durmitor and Sinjajevina, mountainous regions with the Total 676 733 808 955
Tara canyon and the national park. Durmitor National Park is Tourist Arrivals % Growth
(Decline)
a UNESCO World heritage Site.
Foreign 4.8 6.8 11.3 19.0
> Bjelasica, Komovi and Prokletije, mountainous areas with Domestic (4.4) 20.9 3.0 10.8
national parks, monasteries and mosques.
Total (2.6) 8.5 10.2 18.1
Official statistics cover tourists staying in registered tourist Tourist Nights 000s
accommodation. However, this understates tourism demand Foreign 2,720 2,843 3,114 3,459
because they exclude tourists in unregistered
Domestic 364 403 408 431
accommodation (the “grey” market).
Total 3,085 3,247 3,521 3,890
The coast between Budva and Bar is the main tourism zone. Tourist nights % Growth
It accounts for approximately 55% of all tourist nights in (Decline)
registered accommodation. There is also a significant Foreign 3.3 2.2 19.9 1.4
demand for unregistered accommodation. There was Domestic (1.0) (4.1) (22) (5.9)
extensive real estate development, particularly apartment Total (1.2) 5.3 8.4 10.5
blocks, in the period from independence to the global Source: Montenegro Statistical Office, 2018
economic crisis. Now, many projects are incomplete or
remain undeveloped. In peak season there is pressure on
utilities and infrastructure, and beaches are crowded.
Tourist Arrivals by Destination Type: The vast majority Herceg Novi 2,203 139.8 2,344
(approximately 94.9% in 2017) of tourist arrivals stay in
Other 4,536 249.3 4,785
seaside resorts. Podgorica attracts demand in its role as the
capital city. Mountain resorts attract limited demand for Total 11,470 483 11,953
winter sports and summer nature tourism.
% of Total
Destination
Destination Type % of Tourist Arrivals
Foreign Domestic Total
Seaside Resorts 94.9
Budva 41.2 19.4 40.4
Capital City (Podgorica) 2.2
Herceg Novi 19.2 28.9 19.6
Mountain Resorts 1.6
Other 1.3 Other 39.6 51.7 40
Total 100.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Montenegro Statistical Office
Source: Montenegro Statistical Office
Country of Origin of Foreign Tourists: Russia and Serbia
Seasonality: Tourist demand peaks significantly in the
generate the majority of tourist demand (around 52.4% of summer months, reflecting the dominance of beach related
foreign tourist nights in 2017), followed by Eastern European tourism. The months between June and September
countries. Demand from Western Europe is limited, led by accounted for 81.8% of tourist nights in 2017. The two peak
Germany and France (each 2.7% and 2.6% of foreign tourist months, July and August, accounted for over 59.9% of tourist
nights respectively). nights.
BiH 2,500
Montenegro 2,000
3.8%
1,500
4% 25.7% Ukraine
1,000
9.4%
Other 500
0
Source: Montenegro Statistical Office
> Podgorica Airport, is located 12 km south of Podgorica Travel Service 2.8% Dublin 2.6%
city centre and 115 km from Herceg Novi. The airport has two Source: Dubrovnik Airport, 2016
runways. The new terminal (2006) has an annual capacity of > Future Developments: Proposed future airport
1 million passengers. The old terminal has been completely development in Montenegro is the subject of a master plan
renovated and is used for VIPs and general aviation. covering the period to 2030. Plans include further upgrade
Destinations served by scheduled flights are Belgrade, and increase of capacity at Podgorica Airport and Tivat
Frankfurt, Istanbul, London, Ljubljana, Paris, Rome, Moscow, Airport (with a new passenger terminal, increased taxiways
Vienna, Zurich, Milano, and Stockholm. There are also and new apron areas). Long term proposals include a new
additional seasonal and charter flights during the summer. international airport operation at Berane in the northeast part
of the country. A tender for the privatisation of Podgorica and
> Tivat Airport is located by the coastal road 4 km from Tivat
Tivat airports is to be released within the next two months.
and 25 km southeast of Herceg Novi (via the car ferry linking
The airport is undergoing an expansion that will increase its
Kamenari and Lepetane). The refurbished and upgraded annual capacity to 3.5 million passengers.
terminal has an annual capacity of one million passengers.
However, the vast majority (over 80%) of passengers arrive > Road: Montenegro’s road network totals 7,000 km, of which
in the summer period when there are seasonal and charter 884 km are main and primary roads, 964 km regional and
flights from throughout Europe. This results in the passenger secondary roads, and 5,000 km roads. There is considerable
terminal operating at capacity at peak times in the summer. disparity in road conditions between the coastal and
mountainous areas. Significant investment is needed in much
Podgorica Airport Tivat Airport of the road network, despite improvements in and around
Podgorica and some of the most concentrated tourism areas
Passengers Change Passengers Change such as Budva.
000s % 000s %
2011 612 -6% 647 19% > Rail: The rail network comprises 428 km of single line
2012 620 1% 726 12% track, of which 168 km are electrified. Key sections of the rail
network have been rehabilitated and rolling stock upgrading
2013 681 10% 868 20%
has taken place.
2014 701 3% 911 5%
> Sea: Montenegro has three active sea ports: Bar (largest
2015 748 6% 895 -3%
port in Montenegro that handles both cargo and passengers),
2016 873 16% 982 10%
Kotor (the main cruise ship port) and Zelenika. There is also
2017 1,055 20% 1,129 14.9% a chain of marinas along the coast. The major marinas
Source: Airports of Montenegro include those located at Ulcinj, Bar, Budva, Tivat, Kotor,
> Dubrovnik Airport, located in Croatia 30 km northwest of Zelenika and Herceg Novi.
Herceg Novi. The Airport handled 1.99 million passengers in > Transport Strategy: Montenegro’s strategy is to integrate
2016, 17% more compared to 2015. The result in 2016 is 7% its transport network into the regional transport network, to
larger than number of passengers handled by Podgorica and improve communications with neighboring countries. Road
Tivat airports combined. Major airlines and routes at network proposals include implementation of two major
Dubrovnik Airport are summarized in the following table. highway corridors: the Bar - Boljare highway (pan European
road networks) and the E65/E80 Adriatic Highway (Italy –
Greece road connection). However, there is uncertainty over
the financing of these major projects.
Rents
Rental levels for modern office space in Podgorica range
between 14 – 22 EUR/m²/month. Class A office buildings on
good locations can be rented at 17 EUR/m²/month. Lower
quality office space price varies between 10 – 14
EUR/m²/month. The range of the rental prices for office space
units in prime downtown streets and around the Roman
Square which are located within residential projects is
between 10 – 15 EUR/m²/month, depending on the age, size,
condition and visibility of the unit. Office units that are a part
of residential buildings, on unattractive position command
Source: Colliers International Montenegro lower rental prices of approximately 5 – 7 EUR/m²/month.
Dukley Gardens
A luxury complex of residences Dukley Garden was
completed 2015. It is located on peninsula of Zavala, in city
Source: Colliers International Montenegro of Budva. Resident units in Dukley gardens have asking
prices from 4,500 to 7,500 EUR/m2.
rket
The buyer structure is based on five groups: Western Balkan
countries hold the largest share, Russians are on the second
place with 25%, while the rest of the buyers come from
Buyers of Dukley Garden residential complex are mainly from
Russia (70%). Other buyers are mostly from Ukraine, France
Switzerland, Middle East and UK. It is planned that the project and UK. The structure of the origin of buyers is presented in
will comprise seven hotels, two marinas, a spa and wellness the following chart:
center, a sport center and other amenities. Luxury residence Dukley Gardens, buyer structure
8%
Delta City
16% Mall of
39%
Montenegro
Bazar
13% Capital Plaza
City Mall
24%
$2.5
billion in
annual revenue
2
billion square feet
under management
16,000
professionals and staff
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