EXERCISES [MAI 4.

8]
PROBABILITY II (TREE DIAGRAMS)
SOLUTIONS
Compiled by: Christos Nikolaidis
A. Paper 1 questions (SHORT)
1. (a)
6, 6 1
6
1 36
–
6
6
1
–
6 5
–
6 5
not 6 6, not 6
36
not 6, 6 5
6
1 36
–
5 6
–
6 not 6
5
–
6 25
not 6 not 6, not 6
36
1
(b) P(two sixes) =
36
5 5 10
(c) P(one six only) =  
36 36 36
1 10 11 25 11
(d) P(one or more sixes) =   or 1  =
36 36 36 36 36
2. The four scenarios have probabilities 0.18, 0.12, 0.14, 0.56
(a)
P( A) 0.3 P( A) 0.7 P( A  B ) 0.18

P( A  B) 0.12 P( A  B ) 0.14 P( A  B) 0.56

(b)
P( B) 0.32 P( B) 0.68 P( A  B) 0.44
(c)
P( B | A) 0.6 P( B | A) 0.4 P( B | A) 0.2 P( B | A) 0.8
(d)
P( A | B ) 0.18/0.32 = 9/16
3. (a)
3/9 A

A
4/10
6/9
B

4/9 A
6/10
B

5/9
B

 4 6   6 4  48  8 
(b)        , 0.533
 10 9   10 9  90  15 

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4. Let P(RL) be the probability that it is raining given that the girl is late.
L –1 × –2 = –1
4 3 6
–23
R
–14
–13
L’
–15 L
–34 × –15 = 20
–3
–34
R’
–45
L’
P( R  L) 1/ 6 10
P(RL) = = =
P( L) 1 / 6  3 / 20 19

5. (a)
0.6

0.4 0.4

0.6 0.5

0.5

(b) P(B) = 0.4(0.6) + 0.6 (0.5) = 0.24 + 0.30= 0.54

P( B  C ) 0.24 4
(c) P(CB) =   (= 0.444, 3 sf)
P( B) 0.54 9

6. (a)
Grows
0.9

Red
0.4

0.1 Does not grow

Grows
0.8

0.6
Yellow

0.2 Does not grow

(b) (i) 0.4  0.9 = 0.36
(ii) 0.36  0.6  0.8 ( 0.36  0.48) = 0.84
P (red  grows) 0.36  3
(iii) (may be implied)   0.429  
P (grows) 0.84 7

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7. (a)

1 4  4 
(b) (i) P(R  S) =    0.267 
3 5  15 
1 4 2 1 13
(ii) P(S) =    = ( 0.433)
3 5 3 4 30
8
(iii) P(R S) = (4/15) / (13/30) = ( 0.615)
13
4
8. (a) p=
5
1 1 4 3 14  7 
(b) P(B) =    =  
5 4 5 8 40  20 
4 3

12  6 
(c) P(A′│B) = 5 8 =  
7 14  7 
20

9. (a) P(pass) = 0.6 × 0.8 + 0.4 × 0.9 = 0.84

(b) P(B) = x, P(A) = 1 – x
0.8(1 – x) + 0.9x = 0.87  x = 0.7 70 % from B

10. (a) P(win) = (0.65)(0.83) + (0.35)(0.26) = 0.6305 (or 0.631)

(0.65)(0.17)  0.1105 
(b) P(H│W′) =   = 0.299
0.3695  0.3695 

11.
>25°(0.3)

R(0.2)

>25°(0.6)
R’(0.8)

P (> 25°) = 0.2 × 0.3 + 0.8 × 0.6 = 0.54

0.06 1
P (R >25°) = = (or 0.111)
0.54 9

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5. (a) P ( A) = 0.4 P ( A  B ) = 0.7

(b) x  0 .
(c) x  0.2
(d) x  0.3
(e) x  0.1
6. (a) n(A  B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A  B)
65 = 30 + 50 – n(A  B)  n(A  B) = 15 (may be on the diagram)
n(B  A) = 50 – 15 = 35
n( B  A) 35
(b) P(B  A) =  = 0.35
n(U ) 100

7. (a) (i) n(A  B) = 2

2  1
(ii) P(A  B) =  or 
36  18 
(b) n(A  B)  0 (or equivalent)

8. (a) (i) n = 0.1

(ii) m = 0.2, p = 0.3, q = 0.4

(b) P(B′) = 0.6

9. (a) (i) p = 0.2

(ii) q = 0.4
(iii)r = 0.1
2
(b) P(A│B′) =
3
2
(c) valid reason e.g. ≠ 0.5, 0.35 ≠ 0.3 thus, A and B are not independent
3

10. (a) p(A  B) = 0.6 + 0.8 – 1= 0.4

(b) p(A’  B') = p((A  B)΄) = 1 – 0.4= 0.6

19
11. (a)  0.158
120
(b) 35  (8 + 5 + 7)(= 15)
15  3 1 
Probability =    0.125 
120  24 8 
(c) Number studying = 76
Number not studying = 120  number studying = 44
44  11 
Probability =   0.367 
120  30 

20 1
12. (a) (i) P(PC) = =
20  40 3
30 1
(ii) P(PC) = =
30  60 3
(b) Investigating conditions, or some relevant calculations

2
 P is independent of C, with valid reason
13. (a)
Boy Girl Total
TV 13 25 38
Sport 33 29 62
Total 46 54 100
38
P(TV) =
100
13
(b) P(TV  Boy) =
46
14. (a)
Males Females Totals
Unemployed 20 40 60
Employed 90 50 140
Totals 110 90 200
40 1
(b) (i) P(unemployed female) = 
200 5
90 9
(ii) P(male I employed person) = 
140 14

15. (a) 46/97

(b) 13/51
(c) 59/97
12  3 
16. (a) (i) P(male or tennis) =  
20  5 
6
(ii) P(not football | female) =
11
11 10
(b) P(first not football) = , P(second not football) =
20 19
11 10
P(neither football) = 
20 19
110  11 
P(neither football) =  
380  38 

17. (a) Independent (I)

(b) Mutually exclusive (M)
(c) Neither (N)

18. Using a tree diagram,

ARGENTINE NOT ARGENTINE TOTAL
SPANISH 12 3 15
ENGLISH 3 3 6
TOTAL 15 6 21
12 4
p(SA) = =
15 5
1
19. (a) P(A) =
11
2
(b) P(B│A) =
10

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B. Paper 2 questions (LONG)

27. (a)
Y
2
–
5
–2 X Y’
3 –3
5 1
–
4
–1 X’ Y
3
–3
4
Y’
2 3 1 3 13
(b) P(Y) =    
3 5 3 4 20
4 11
(c) P(X  Y) = 1 – P(X  Y) = 1 – =
15 15

1 3 1

3 4 25
(d) P(X  Y) =  4 
2 3 1 3 13 52
  
3 5 3 4 25

28. (a)
1
4 L

7
W
8
3
4 L'
3
5 L
1
8
W'
2
5 L'

7 1 1 3 47
(b) Probability that he will be late is    = (0.294)
8 4 8 5 160

P(W  L) 7 1 47
(c) P(WL) = P(W  L) =  P(L) =
P( L) 8 4 160
7
35
P(WL) = 32 = (= 0.745)
47 47
160

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B. Paper 2 questions (LONG)

36.

37. (a)
U(88)
E(32) H(28)

a b c

39

n (E  H) = a + b + c = 88 – 39 = 49
n (E  H) = 32 + 28 – b = 49  b = 11
a = 32 – 11 = 21
c = 28 – 11 = 17

11 1
(b) (i) P(E  H) = 
88 8
21
PH ' E  88 21 21
(ii) P(HE) =  = (= 0.656) Or directly =
P E  32 32 32
88
56  55  54
(c) (i) P(none in economics) = = 0.253
88  87  86

(ii) P(at least one) = 1 – 0.253= 0.747

OR
 32 56 55   32 31 56  32 31 30
3     3       = 0.747
 88 87 86   88 87 86  88 87 86

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40. (a) (i) Venn diagram, 30
(ii) 45
70  7 
(b) (i)  
100  10 

45  9 
(ii)  
70  14 
(c) P(A ∩ B) = 0.3 ≠ 0
30 75 55 30 75
(d) P(A ∩ B) ≠ P(A) × P(B),   , 
100 100 100 55 100
30 75
OR P(B│A) ≠ P(B), 
55 100

41. (a) (i) s=1

(ii) q=5
(iii) p = 7, r = 3
5
(b) (i) P(art|music) =
8
(ii) METHOD 1
12  3  3 5
Part      the events are not independent
16  4  4 8
METHOD 2
96  3  12 8 5
P(art) × P(music) =     the events are not independent
256  8  16 16 16
3
(c) P(first takes only music) =
16
7
P(second takes only art)=
15
3 7 21  7 
P(music and art)=  =  
16 15 240  80 

42. (a) (i) 250 (ii) 166 (since 1000/6=166.67) (iii) 83

(b) 250/1000 = 1/4
(c) 166/1000
(d) 83/1000
(e) 250-83 = 167 so P=167/1000.
(f) 250 + 166 – 83 = 333 so P=333/1000
(g) 250 + 166 – 2×83 = 250 so P=250/1000.

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