ISSN 1440-771X

ISBN 0 7326 1058 3

MONASH UNIVERSITY

AUSTRALIA

School-leavers’ Transition to Tertiary Study: A Literature Review

Merran Evans

Working Paper 3/99

March 1999

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMETRICS
AND BUSINESS STATISTICS
 “School-leavers’ Transition to Tertiary Study: A
Literature Review”

by Merran Evans

Abstract

The theoretical and empirical literature relating to factors and problems in the transition of
students from secondary to tertiary level education is reviewed here. Studies on persistence and
attrition, and on the analysis and prediction of academic performance of students, generally and
in particular discipline areas, are included.

Keywords: transition to university; student performance.

Address for correspondence:

Professor Merran Evans
Associate Chair of Academic Board
Office of the Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Academic and Planning)
Monash University
Clayton VIC 3168
Email: Merran.Evans@adm.monash.edu.au

1
 Introduction

The problem of the transition from secondary school to the first year at
university is not new in Australia – see for example Powell (1979) on transition
and Downes (1976) on predicting performance – but the issues change with time.
The problem can be devastating for individuals and their families, and it represents
an enormous social and economic waste (Pargetter 1995).
The theoretical and empirical literature relating to factors and problems in
the transition of students from secondary to tertiary level education is reviewed
here. Studies on persistence and attrition, and on the analysis and prediction of
academic performance of students, generally and in particular discipline areas, are
included. Results relating to first year university entry direct from school are of
particular interest, though the literature also encompasses non-standard-entry
students as well as other post-secondary institutions. The review includes most of
the recent Australian literature, and key works from the plethora of overseas
material, particularly from North America, in addition to studies of theoretical
models from the education, psychology, sociology, economics, and statistics
literature, and of their application in specific discipline areas. It is based on the
excellent literature review of Clarke et al. (1994)*, which is augmented,
particularly with post-1993 studies. (* denotes an Australian study.)
As noted by Clarke et al., a significant problem related to reviewing this
type of literature results from different types of admission policies. Many overseas
institutions, particularly in North America, have an open-door as opposed to
competitive, and hence selective, admission policy, as was generally the case in
Australia until 1998. Another relevant differentiation from Australian universities
is the American two-year residential (liberal arts) colleges (where much of the
Clarke research has been undertaken).

Theories and Models

Early theories on transition were based in psychology, focusing on

individual personal characteristics. From the mid-seventies, the emphasis shifted to
sociological factors, and more recently it has focussed on the institutional context
and the students’ integration.
Tinto’s (1975) conceptual model, based on Durkheim’s (1961) suicide
theory and Spady’s (1970) model of the student dropout process, is the most
widely recognised and tested. Tinto (1987, 1993) synthesised much research on the
theory of student departure, emphasising the role of the institution and
social/academic integration of students, particularly the interaction between the
students’ attributes, skills and dispositions and the institution’s academic and social
systems. Students’ departure was found to be primarily related to isolation and
incongruence. Tinto’s model has been confirmed by Allen and Nelson (1989),
Grossett (1989), Boyle (1989), Halpin (1990), Christie and Dinham (1990) and
others. However, Neumann and Neumann (1989) found it a poor predictor, though

2
possibly useful for freshmen. Pascarella et al. (1983) note that Tinto’s model was
based in a residential context, but that ‘the concepts of person-environment fit,
social integration, and institutional commitment operated differently in the
commuter institution’. Pascarella (1982) also found the relationship among these
concepts was more consistent with ‘theoretical expectations in the residential and
liberal arts samples than in the two- or four-year commuter samples.’
Bean’s (1980,1982,1985) and Bean and Metzner’s (1985) theories and
models of student departure, which emphasise the influence of the external
environment more than social integration factors, are particularly applicable to
non-traditional students. Related studies include those of McCaffrey (1989) for
distance education, Stahl and Pavel (1992), Eaton and Bean’s (1993, 1995) model
of attrition based on attrition/avoidance behaviour, Azjen and Fishbein’s (1975)
model (c.f. Koslowsky 1993, Carpenter and Fleishman 1987*), Brewer’s (1992)
life-task model, and Pascarella’s general model for assessing change. Cabrera et al.
(1992, 1993) examine empirically ‘the convergent and discriminant validity’ of the
theoretical models of Tinto and Bean.
Learning models of academic performance are used in the economic
literature. These educational ‘production function’ models relate output (in terms
of value added or absolute achievement) to input (in terms of students’ ability,
background, interest and effort, and instructional input).

Analyses

Research has been extensive and varied, generally focusing on specific

aspects of transition, persistence and academic performance in particular contexts.
Some common themes and factors emerge from the literature, but variations in
findings occur in different countries and cultures and by disciplines, institutions and
student categories, as do conflicting results due to theoretical and methodological
issues (Anderson 1987; etc).
Studies have been undertaken in a range of countries:
• USA – Tinto, Pascarella, Terenzini, Astin etc, Gutierrez-Marquez
(1994) (10,000 students), Gillespie and Noble (1992);
• Canada – Sarkar (1993), Sweet (1986), Anderson et al. (1994);
• UK – Goldstein, Thomas, Rabash, Raudenbusch etc., Hadley and
Winn (1992), Gramlich and Greenlee (1993);
• Israel – Koslowsky (1993), Ben-Shakar and Kiderman (1996);
• Asia – Kember et al. (1991) in Hong-Kong, Tay (1994) in
Singapore, Pongboriboon (1993) in Thailand;
• Australasia – Anderson (1959, 1960, 1972)* , Keef (1992) in New
Zealand;
• Australian studies, indicated by *, include: Dobson et al. (1996)*,
Dobson and Sharma (1995)*, Shah and Burke (1996)*, Calderon (1997)* in
Victoria, Long et al. (1995)*, Lewis (1994)*, Clarke et al. (1994)*, Everett and
Robins (1991)*, Elsworth et al. (1982)*, Watkins (1979, 1981, 1982)*, Abbott-
Chapman et al. (1992)* in Tasmania, McClelland and Kruger (1993)* in
Queensland, Clark and Ramsay (1990)*, Power et al. (1986, 1987)* and Linke et
al. (1985)* in South Australia, Watkins (1979-1986)*, Stevens and Walker
(1996)*, Jackson (1997)*.

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 Large scale studies include:
• Gutierrez-Marquez (1994), Gillespie and Noble (1962) (6000),
Anderson et al. (1994) (7000), Clark and Ramsay (1990)* (7000), Dobson et al.
(1996)*, Shah and Burke (1996)*, Calderon (1997)*.
Some studies have focussed on specific discipline areas:
• Nursing – Care (1995), Burgum et al. (1993)*, Benda (1991);
• Medicine – Tutton and Wigg (1990)*;
• Law – Bradsen and Farrington (1986)*;
• Education – Hart (1992)*;
• Geography – Walmsley (1990)*;
• Physics – Brekke (1994), Young (1991)*, Bailey et al. (1989),
Logan and Bailey (1983), O’Halloran and Russell (1980), Dale and Jennings
(1986)*;
• Science – Young (1991)*, Kidd and Naylor (1991), Warwick-
James (1994)*;
• Engineering – Stone (1988);
• Mathematics – Umoh et al. (1994), Pongboriboon (1993), Wood
and Smith (1993)*, Watson (1988)*;
• Statistics – Smith et al. (1994)*, Thompson and Smith (1982)*,
Magel (1996), Jackson (1997)*;
• Computing – Flitman (1997)*;
• Accounting – Ramsay and Baines (1994)*, Auyeung and Sands
(1993)*, Bouillon and Doran (1990, 1992), Danko et al. (1992), Keef (1992),
Dinius (1991), Farley and Ramsay (1988)*, Norton and Reding (1992), Nourayi
and Reding (1992), Nourayi and Cherry (1993);
• Economics – Douglas and Sulock (1995), Milkman et al. (1995),
Stratford and Sulock (1995), Anderson et al. (1994), Brasfield et al. (1993),
Williams et al. (1992), Dancer and Doran (1990)*, Siegfried and Fels (1979),
Siegfried and Walstead (1998), Tay (1994), Ferber et al. (1983), Heath (1989),
Horvath et al. (1992), Lumsden and Scott (1983, 1987), Palmer et al. (1979);
• Management – Hadley and Inn (1992);
• Business/Commerce – Hand and Fry (1995)*, Tay (1994), Ashar
and Skenes (1993), Pharr et al. (1993), Cheng (1991)*, Wright and Palmer (1994),
Stanley and Oliver (1994)*.
Some studies have focused on study mode or student type:
• Distance Education – Care (1995), Long (1994)*, Kember (1989,
1990), Kember et al. (1991), Stone (1988), Sweet (1986), Eisenberg and Dowsett
(1990), McMahon (1990)*;
• Adults – Duke (1987), Farabaugh-Dorkins (1991), Ashar and
Skenes (1993), Munn et al. ( 1994), Dirk and Jha (1994);
• Disadvantaged – Fox (1994, 1986), O’Dowd (1996), West
(1985)*;
• Minority groups – Pavel (1991), Levin and Levin (1991), Kiang
(1992), Castle (1993), Dobson (1995), Kramer (1993), von Destinon (1985), Price
et al. (1992)*, Lewis (1994)*, McJamerson (1992)*, Nora (1987), Norman and
Norman (1995).
Types of comparative analysis:
• Progress rates – Dobson et al. (1996)*;

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 • Simple correlations – McClelland and Kruger (1993)*, Myers and
Pyles (1992);
• Chi-squared analyses to more sophisticated regression analysis –
West et al. (1986)*;
• Multiple linear regression – Auyeung and Sands (1993)*,
Elsworth and Day (1983)*, Munro, (1981);
• Non-linear – Salemi and Tauchen (1982);
• Logistic – Benso (1991), Everett and Robbins (1991)*, Gillespie
and Noble (1992), McClelland and Kruger (1993)*, Becker and Salemi (1977);
• Probit – Spector and Mazzeo (1980), Dey and Astin (1993) ;
• Logit – Dey and Astin (1993);
• Multinomial logit – Park and Kerr (1990);
• Discriminant analysis – Hamdi et al. (1991), West et al. (1986)*;
• Path analysis – Farabaugh-Dorkins (1991), Munro (1981),
Murray-Harvey (1993)*, Pascarella and Terenzini (1983);
• Neural networks – Flitman (1997)*;
• Causal modelling – Elsworth and Day (1983)*, Mencke et al.
(1988), Stage (1987);
• Structural equation analysis – Cabrera et al. (1993), Kuh and
Vesper (1991), Minnaert and Janssen (1992);
• Educational production functions – Jackson (1997)*, Douglas and
Suloch (1995), Becker and Salemi (1977), Salemi and Tauchen (1980), Becker
(1977, 1982), Modk (1959), Anderson et al. (1994), Siegfried and Fels (1979),
Hanushek (1979);
• Multilevel statistical modelling – in secondary schools’
effectiveness studies – Young (1991)*, Goldstein (1995), Goldstein and
Spiegelhalter (1996), Goldstein and Thomas (1996), Goldstein et al. (1996), Deely
and Smith (1998), Thomas and Mortimore (1996), Woodhouse et al. (1996), Hill
(1995)*, Raudenbusch and Willms (1995), Thomas et al. (1995), Tymms (1995),
Seltzer (1994), Rabash and Goldstein (1994), Paterson and Goldstein (1991),
Raudenbush et al. (1991) – and ‘value-added’ measures at university level –
Hadley and Winn (1992).
Criticisms of methodologies include Braxton et al. (1988), who suggest
that data from post hoc studies should be treated cautiously. Similar issues have
been raised in Pascarella (1988), Terenzini and Pascaralla (1990), Johnes and
Taylor (1990), McPherson and Paterson (1990), Levin and Levin (1993)*.

Factors Identified as Significant

Transition is complex, and varies according to several factors and their

interaction. This is evidenced in the following review, as is the divergence of
findings. Calderon’s (1997)* recent large-scale Monash comparison of student
progress-rates identifies the stereotypical successful student in terms of personal
characteristics such as gender, socioeconomic status and school background, and
shows that these vary by faculty. Following Clarke et al. (1994)*, variables
identified as relevant in the literature are grouped in categories.

5
 (i) Student Demographic Characteristics

Age

A variable for age is included in most studies, but the results are mixed,
partly due to analytic problems of definition and control. For example, sometimes
analysis includes ‘mature age’ students, a variable which often but not necessarily
includes students without ‘normal entry’ qualifications (see McClelland and Kruger
1993)*. With increasing alternative entry pathways to higher education, a variable
based on entry type is more appropriate in such cases. Maturity is suggested as a
factor in student success: hence the argument for deferring university studies for a
year after secondary school. Linke et al. (1985)* found that 5000 deferring South
Australian students generally perceived deferring as ‘valuable personal experience
with relevance also to their ability to cope with subsequent studies’, but also that
deferment acts as a filter, diverting female non-metropolitan students from entering
higher education.
Age appears to have little predictive power in some studies for success
(e.g. Kuh and Vesper 1991, McClelland and Kruger 1993)* or persistence (e.g.
Gillespie and Noble 1992, West et al. 1986)*. Farabaugh-Dorkins (1991) in a
study of adult (over 21 years) freshmen, found that dropping out most correlated
with intent to leave, GPA and goal committment. [See Clarke re age]. However
Clark and Ramsay (1990)* found age correlated with performance in most
institutions and courses. Siegfried and Walstead (1990) indicate that age has a
positive effect on performance in economics. However, Anderson et al. (1994),
controlling for vintage in a large Toronto study, found significant differences
across sessions and campuses, and that after 25 years higher ages begin to have a
positive effect. [Hong (1982, 1984) also considered the age factor in predicting
success.]
Shah and Burke’s (1996)* national Australian study using input-output
analysis found a 20 year old commencing student has the highest chance of
completing a course, and that the difference in probabilities varies with the
commencement of age.

Linguistic and Cultural Background

Non-English Speaking Background (NESB) is used sometimes as an

indicator of ethnicity (Winefield et al. 1990). North American research variously
indicates that ethnicity either influences success (Myers and Pyles 1992) or has no
effect (Benson 1991, Kuh and Vesper l991), and also either affects persistence
indirectly (Munro 1981, Pascarella and Terenzini 1983) or has no effect (Gillespie
and Noble 1952, Kuh and Vesper 1991). Stage (1987) noted that majority students
are likely to be more academically integrated. Australian research appears more
clear cut. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (ATSI) students have been
consistently reported as being less successful (McClelland and Kruger 1993)* and
less persistent (Abbott-Chapman et al. 1992)*. Price et al. (1992)* studied attrition
in the Northern Territory.
Asian students tend to enter (Winefield et al. 1992) and to persist (Abbott-
Chapman et al. 1992*, West et al. 1986)* in tertiary education disproportionately,

6
but to have more problems with their institutions, their courses and with not being
academically prepared (West et al. 1986)*. Tay (1994) found performance in
economics in Singapore different according to ethnic background. Birrell’s (1994)*
Monash study indicates Greek and Asian students have a high entry and low
attrition rate, and discusses the issue of family support and motivation. Other
studies of equity groups include Lewis (1994)*, Dobson and Sharma (1995)* and
Levin and Levin (1993)*.

Gender

In some studies gender did not appear to predict performance (Benson

1991, Murray-Harvey 1993*, Tutton and Wigg 1990)* or persistence (Gutierrez-
Marquez 1994, Gillespie and Noble 1992, West et al. 1986)*. However females
dominated males in performance in the following studies: Everett and Robins
(1991)*, Hamdi et al. (1992), Abdulrazzak and Nada (1992), Clark and Ramsay
(1990)*, McClelland and Kruger (1993)*. Females also dominated males in
persistence in the following studies: Hamdi et al. (1992), Munro (1981), Pascarella
and Terenzini (1983), Clark and Ramsay (1990)*, Tinto (1993).
Clarke et al. (1994)* considered that these mixed results can be attributed
to confounding factors and methods of analysis, and that any interpretation must
avoid being simplistic. For example, Abbott-Chapman et al. (1992)* found attrition
risks greatest for able females, while West et al. (1986)* found different
motivations for dropping out by gender, but no quantitative differences. Pascarella
and Terenzini (1983) found an overall indirect gender effect on persistence through
initial institutional committment, but separate analyses revealed that different male
and female behaviour could be explained differently. Elsworth and Day (1983)*
found females less likely to take courses offered to them from choices of secondary
subjects in science, or based on their perceptions of career advantages.
Shah and Burke (1996)* found that, overall, females have a higher chance
of completing a course, and take less time to complete it, than a male of the same
commencing age. However, though generally true, the opposite holds in some
cases in some discipline areas – e.g. males in Business, Law and Engineering. In
general, females have a higher chance of completion in Architecture, Arts,
Education, Health and Science. The pattern appears less uniform across other ages
for other areas.
Significant differences have been found in some discipline areas. Much
recent empirical work has been done in Economics, a subject where failures and
attrition are high (e.g. 60% in Toronto). Males appear more persistent than females
in Economics subjects (Anderson et al. 1994, Douglas and Sulock 1995). Males
also have been found to perform better than females in economics by Heath
(1989), Ferber et al. (1983), Lumsden and Scott (1981), Tay (1994) (in
Singapore), and Anderson et al. (1994), but not by Douglas and Sulock (1995),
who suggested that previous findings of a significant gender effect may be the
result of sample selection bias. Interestingly, Anderson et al. could not duplicate
their result in other commerce or mathematical subjects. Differences appear to
depend on particular course components in disciplines such as Accounting
(Bouillon and Doran 1992, Ramsay and Baines 1996*, Nourayi and Cheney 1993),
Economics (Siegfried and Walstead 1990), and styles of assessment (Lumsden and

7
Scott 1987, Williams et al. 1992). Some other studies omitted gender, although it
might have been relevant (Auyeung and Sands 1993*, Minnaert and Janssen 1992).
Other studies include Clark and Ramsay (1990)*, Bean and Vesper (1994),
Dobson and Sharma (1995)* and Goldstein (1996).

Student Entry Category/School Type

The North American literature is inconclusive on the relevance of type of

school to persistence (e.g. Gillespie and Noble 1992). In Australia students from
government schools generally appear less likely than those from non-government
schools to enter tertiary education (Elsworth and Day 1983)*, but more likely to
persist (Abbott-Chapman et al. 1992*, West 1985)* and also to perform (Abbott-
Chapman et al. 1992*, West et al. 1986)*, except in the Tutton and Wigg (1990)*
study of medical students.
Although the focus here is on school to university transition, special entry is
an increasing category in many tertiary institutions. Hitherto this variable was
rarely included in studies because of the small numbers involved. This will change
in at least some institutions with the increasing emphasis on recognition of prior
learning and credit transfer, the expansion of pathways to tertiary education, and
lifelong learning. McClelland and Kruger (1993)* in their study of the 1990
Queensland tertiary admissions cohort, found tertiary performance slightly
negatively correlated with tertiary entrance index and performance for a group of
119 ‘mature age’ students (here indicating a lack of formal qualifications). They
also found that compared with regular school entry students, students with
previous post-secondary qualifications (particularly other tertiary rather than
TAFE) were more successful, but students previously excluded from tertiary
institutions less successful. Dobson and Sharma (1995)* and Lewis (1994)* also
examined equity groups.

Socioeconomic and Socioeducational Status

Relationships between indices of socioeconomic status (SES) and tertiary

entry, performance and persistence are discussed in a comprehensive literature
review by O’Dowd (1997)*. Higher SES students have been found to have an
increased probability of gaining entry (Winfield et al. 1992), achieving success
(McClelland and Kruger 1993*) and persisting (Munro 1981, Scott et al. 1992,
Astin 1993, Lewis 1994*). Most of those withdrawing for financial reasons were
from low SES backgrounds (West et al. 1986)*. However Gutierrez-Marquez
(1994) found that family income was not relevant to success, and a review of
economics education, Siegfried and Fels (1979), found that socioeconomic
background did not seem to matter much.
Some studies focused on parental education, but it was not found to be a
significant factor by Gillespie and Noble (1992) or Pascarella and Terenzini (1983).
It has been used as an indicator of socioeconomic status (e.g. Pascarella and
Terenzini 1983, West et al. 1986)*. Young (1991)* found a composite measure of
socioeducational level, parental occupation and education, and number of books in
the home had a significant effect, using multilevel analysis.

8
 Location – Home and Residential

Elsworth and Day (1983)* found that rural students were more likely to
decline tertiary place offers. This could be related to a financial support factor. A
location variable can be a concomitant of others, such as: socioeconomic status,
where home postcode is often used as an indicator (McClelland and Kruger
1993)*, financial support (e.g. West et al. 1986* found a significant number of
students attributing finance for deciding to withdraw or transfer to an institution
nearer home), and social integration. Tinto (1987) found ‘external community
pivotal to off-campus students’. Terenzini and Pascarella (1982), after controlling
for other characteristics, found the residence unit context appeared to relate to
persistence among males but not females. Any analysis of overseas versus local
students may be confounded by this factor.

(ii) Student Psychological Characteristics

Academic Preparedness, Learning Strategies and Locus of Control

Significant numbers of students who voluntarily withdrew from full-time

study cited unsatisfactory study skills and a lack of important pre-requisite
knowledge as reasons (West et al. 1986)*. Studying and learning approaches at
tertiary level appear to be strongly influenced by practices at secondary school
level (Ramsden 1991, Ramsden et al. 1989)* and a mis-match may create
problems.
Achievement was found to be best explained by metacognitive ability by
Murray-Harvey (1993)* using a cluster of ten variables including age, gender and
psychological characteristics. Van Rossum and Schenk (1984) found that
achievement was generally comparable for questions involving knowledge, but was
higher for students using a deeper approach to learning when insight was required.
An internal (sense of control of one’s own behaviour), rather than an external
(control by others or fate), locus of control, has been shown to increase the
likelihood of entering tertiary education (Winefield et al. 1992) and indirectly affect
performance (Murray-Harvey 1993)* and persistence (Munro 1981). However
Wilhite (1990) found that student/academic performance is affected by the external
locus of control, and West et al. (1986)* that students with dominantly an extrinsic
motivation are more likely to persist than withdraw.
From the limited relevant literature available, students’ performance is
clearly related to their own concepts of their academic ability (Murray-Harvey
1993*, Wilhite 1990, Watson 1988* (in mathematics)). Watkins (1978-1986)* and
colleagues focussed on the effects of students’ personalities and attitudes, the
nature of institutions and different faculties, disciplines and learning environments
on student learning, study approaches and adjustment.

Goal Commitment

Students' goals for tertiary study are an important factor in persistence, as

shown by Mutter (1992), Webb (1989), Preston (1993) and Sarkar (1993). Such

9
goals appear to have a direct effect (Gillespie and Noble 1992, Pascarella and
Terenzini 1983, Allen and Amaury 1995 (one factor only)), or an indirect effect
(Munro 1981, Bean 1985, Pascarella and Terenzini 1983). The influence appears
to vary: greater during the earlier years (Bean 1985); more direct for females but
essentially indirect for males (Pascarella and Terenzini 1983). Warwick-James
(1994)*, using a national longitudinal data base, found that a clear career goal was
correlated with retention, whereas Lewallen (1993) found no evidence that
students who were undecided about a choice of career or major study area had a
greater potential for non-persistence.
Munro (1981) found students’ goals appear to be strongly influenced by
their perceptions of their parents’ attitudes and goals for their tertiary education.
Munro (1981) also demonstrated that self-esteem indirectly influences performance
through institutional commitment and satisfaction with academic activities, etc.
Students’ stated intention is consistently the strongest predictor, whether of
persistence (Bean 1982, 1985, Cabrera et al. 1993) or dropping out (Farabaugh-
Dorkins 1991).

Academic Motivation

The academic orientation and motivation of students has been found to be a

significant predictor of performance and persistence by Abbott-Chapman et al.
(1992)*, Hughes and Wyld (1986) and West et al. (1986)*.
Siegfried and Walstead’s (1990) survey of economics students indicated
study effort was positively related to student performance, whereas their earlier
study (Siegfred and Fels 1979) did not. Tay (1994) found that preparation for
class, and Romer (1993) attendance at class, were important for the final
performance of students.

(iii) Student Prior Performance

Admission to Australian tertiary institutions on the basis of academic

performance is determined according to one index or some combination of indices,
such as secondary school results or ranking (overall or in specific subjects), the
score of some form of scholastic aptitude test, school recommendations, and other
relevant experience or submitted folio of work. Research, in Australian and
overseas, consistently indicates that secondary school subject results invariably are
strong direct predictors of tertiary performance.

Prior Academic Performance – Overall

A tertiary entrance index, using a sometimes complex combination of

secondary school and scholastic results, appears a strong predictor of performance.
This is demonstrated in Abbott-Chapman et al. (1992)*, Auyeung and Sands
(1993)*, Bean (1985), Benson (1991), Hamdi et al. (1992), McClelland and
Kruger (1993)*, Clark and Ramsay (1990)*, and Power et al. (1987)* for
performance, and for persistence in Abbott-Chapman et al. (1992)* and Gillespie
and Noble (1992). Its validity, however, may decrease over time (Clark and

10
Ramsay 1990*, Schofield 1989)*. See also Myers and Pyles (1992). In Singapore,
Tay (1994), in contrast to all previous studies elsewhere, found overall ability or
intelligence to be insignificant, but noted that this may be the result of examinations
focusing only on material taught rather than on student ability, or of the
homogenous high quality of the student cohort.

Prior Academic Performance – in Subjects

Many studies, including Abbott-Chapman et al. (1992)*, Auyeung and

Sands (1993)*, Bean (1985), Benson (l991), Hamdi et al. (1992), McClelland and
Kruger (1993)*, Minnaert and Janssen (1992), and Myers and Pyles (1992), found
prior academic performance a strong predictor of persistence, both direct (Gillespie
and Noble 1992, Minnaert and Janssen 1992) and indirect (Pascarella and
Terenzini 1983).
Some studies distinguished between performance in, and undertaking,
subjects at school. Minnaert and Janssen (l992) note that students’ domain-specific
knowledge relates to their intrinsic motivation to study a subject, which also relates
to their course preference and their academic preparedness. Consistently, the
predictive power was more obvious for the science disciplines (McClelland and
Kruger 1993)* and decreased in later years (Abbott-Chapman et al. 1992*,
Auyeung and Sands 1993*, Farabaugh-Dorkins 1991, McClelland and Kruger
1993*, Gutierrez-Marquez 1994).
Secondary economics is related to tertiary economics performance in
Hyann and Waddell (1990) and Lumsden and Scott (1987), but not in the reviews
of Siegfried and Fels (1979) and Siegfried and Walstead (1990) of mainly US
studies, whereas Anderson et al. (1994) found the relationship complex, and a
positive relationship only for relatively successful secondary students. An early
study by Downes (1976) found secondary school performance in economics and
mathematics significant in explaining first year performance in all subjects in the
Economics faculty at Monash, using data from both the mid 60s and 1972, a result
confirmed in this current study for the same cohort in 1996 and 1997.

Scholastic Aptitude

The most commonly used measures are the Scholastic Aptitude Test
(SAT), All Australian Scholastic Aptitude Test (ASAT) and the American College
Testing Program (ACT). Various measures of scholastic aptitude directly predicted
tertiary performance (Bean 1985, Benson 1991, Everett and Robins 199l*, Horn et
al. 1993, McClelland and Kruger 1993* (weakly), Myers and Pyles 1992). Such
means appear to reflect persistence both directly (Gillespie and Noble 1992) and
indirectly (Pascarella and Terenzini 1983). Everett and Robins (1991)* found the
ASAT quantitative test comparable to the total tertiary admission index in the
University of Western Australia for both humanities and science students. Jenkins
(1992) concluded it should be used only as a supplement to secondary school
Grade Point Average.

11
 Tertiary Offer

The rank of final offer accepted has been shown to directly influence
performance (McClelland and Kruger 1993)* and persistence (West et al. 1986)*
in Australia, and to influence persistence indirectly (Pascarella and Terenzini 1983)
in the US. Anecdotal evidence suggests that satisfaction with offer, which also
relates to rank of offer accepted, may influence persistence. Stage and Ruskin
(1993) linked the student college choice and persistence literature. Tertiary course
choice has been explored by Kidd (1992) and Kidd and Naylor (1991).

(iv) Social Factors

Family and Peer Support

Family support influenced students’ commitment to the institution and

course satisfaction (Cabrera, Nora and Castaneda 1993) and was an important
factor in persistence for a small sample of waverers (West et al. 1986)*, though
West found that a few withdrew because of the difficulty of combining study with
family commitments and needs. Terenzini (1992) noted that families can be either a
supportive asset or a source of stress as relationships change. Parental
encouragement related more to satisfaction for males (Bean and Vesper 1994).
Peer support and relationships have been found to enhance persistence of
students both directly (West et al. 1986*, Pascarella and Terenzini 1983, Mutter
1992) and indirectly (Cabrera et al. 1993, Munro 1981, Pascarella and Terenzini
1983), although Gillespie and Noble (1992) and Kuh and Vesper (1991) found that
it was not a significant predictor of persistence. Pascarella and Terenzini (1983)
and Bean and Vesper (1994) found that the support of friends was more relevant
for females, whereas academically-oriented factors were more influential in males’
decisions. School friends were a facilitating or a complicating transition influence
depending on whether they attended the same institution or not.

Study Mode

McClelland and Kruger (1993)* found no difference in the performance of

part- and full-time enrolled students, but Kuh and Vesper (1991) found that the
range and quality of academic activities available to each group were different.
[Metzner and Bean (1987) discussed the dropout of commuter and part time
students.]
Long’s (1994)* results confirm previous findings that distance education
students are more likely than on-campus students to withdraw, but that their
academic achievement was comparable in later years although marginally lower in
first year. [See also McCaffrey (1989) and Sweet (1986) on distance education,
and also Care (1995).]

Financial

12
 Financial matters generally appear to have a small but significant effect on
persistence either directly (e.g.Webb 1989), or indirectly via goal commitment
(Cabrera et al. 1990), or not at all (Gillespie and Noble 1992). Withdrawers gave
financial problems as the most important reason in West et al. (1986)*, and third
reason in Abbott-Chapman et al. (1992)*. West et al. (1986)* found that,
compared to withdrawers, persisters relied on casual employment more than on
family financial support. Anecdotal evidence suggests that increasing numbers of
students are involved in casual jobs. Gutierrez-Marquez (1994) found weekly job
hours negatively correlated with success. [See Green and Jacques 1987, Tierney
1992, Astin 1992.] Bean (1985) found a direct relationship between persistence
and financial support, whereas Cabrera et al. (1993) found an indirect relationship
through course satisfaction and institutional committment. Tinto (1995) ‘found it
more often cited as a reason by SES students’.

(v) Institutional Factors

Pascarella et al. (1986) found that persistence was affected by

person/environment fit (which had the most salient influence), measures of
academic and social integration (which had the most direct effect), and student pre-
college characteristics (which had the most indirect effect).

Institutional Commitment

Overseas research has found that ‘institutional commitment’ is a factor

which influences persistence (Cabrera et al. 1993, Munro 1981, Kuh and Vesper
1991). Some have distinguished between ‘initial’ and ‘subsequent’ institutional
commitment: Bean (1982, 1985) found initial commitment strongly influential,
particularly in the second year, whereas Pascarella and Terenzini (1983) found
subsequent commitment most directly influential, and in turn directly influenced by
initial commitment. Gender differences were observed: Stage (1987) found that
institutional commitment appears to be more related to persistence for females, as
did Allen and Nelson (1989) (and directly affected by social integration), whereas
Pascarella and Tinto found it to be more of an influence on the subsequent
commitment of males.
Clarke et al. (1994)* suggest that, although the perceived goals or vision of
the institution and student/institution fit appear important in some of the literature,
on reflection these factors appear to represent a disparate combination of goals,
which are addressed in other variables such as institutional commitment, personal
and social orientation of the institution, perceived value of the course and course
characteristics and faculty contact.

Academic Integration

Academic integration, or out-of-class contact with faculty staff related to

academic activities, has been found to be a significant predictor of persistence by
Gillespie and Noble (1992). This has been confirmed by Mutter (1992), Stage

13
(1987), Pascarella and Terenzini (1983), particularly for males’ persistence, and
Towles et al. (1993) for distance students (especially freshman) with faculty-
initiated contact. See also Pascarella et al. (1986). However, Bean and Vesper
(1994) and Bean (1995) found that faculty contact did not appear significant at a
large US research university. The quality of the interaction was observed to be
more important that the frequency by Pascarella et al. (1983). West et al. (1986)*
found 14% of withdrawers described teaching staff as uncaring or uninterested.

Social Integration

Bean’s (1985) faculty contact variable included both social and academic
contact. Stage (1987) found that social integration was likely to be higher the
higher the academic integration. Students’ perception that academic and
administrative staff provide for their personal and social needs appears to positively
influence persistence both directly and indirectly, particularly for females (Bean and
Vesper 1994, Pascarella and Terenzini 1983, Pascarella et al. 1986, Cabrera et al.
1993, West et al. 1986)*. Munro (1981) and Allen and Nelson (1989) found these
qualities influenced institutional commitment.
The literature on mentoring has been reviewed by Jacobi (1991), and
Muckert et al. (1996)*. Life on campus and extra curricular activities appear to
enhance student integration (Christie and Dinham 1990). This factor may be
confounded with term residence. Other relevant studies include Astin (1993), Tinto
(1995), Kuh (1993, 1995), Astin (1993) (for counselling, support services),
Braxton et al. (1995), Eaton and Bean (1995) and Stevens and Walker (1996)*.

Course Expectations/Characteristics

A mismatch between prior expectations and actual experiences was found

to be a significant reason for withdrawing by Abbott-Chapman et al (1992)*. West
et al. (1986)*, Braxton et al. (1995), Power et al. (1986)* found that low
commitment and withdrawal were often the result of inadequate counselling and
decision making about university courses. King (1992) also stressed the central
role of academic advising on retention. Glass and Garett (1995) found that
orientation courses improved retention, as did Sendman (1991) for the third but
not the first semester, but did not result in significantly higher GPAs. Terenzini et
al. (1993) found that faculty involvement was important in orientation. They also
found a need for parents’ involvement. Other studies include Frost et al. (1991),
ERIC Digest on Academic Advising, Upcraft et al. (1995), Price et al. (1992)*,
and Clark and Ramsay (1990)*.
A perceived lack of relevance was found to be a significant factor in
dropping out in some Australian studies (Abbott-Chapman et al. 1992*, West et al.
1986)*. Overseas, Bean (1982, 1985) found course ‘utility’ a significant indirect
predictor of persistence, and Kuh and Vesper (1991) found that student effort
related to the practical values associated with courses.

Nature of Course

14
 Findings sometimes vary according to the discipline area, which can also
relate to prerequisite knowledge. Success in science subjects has been found to be
better predicted than in the humanities by the total ASAT test (Everett and Robins
1991)* and by performance in relevant school subjects (McClelland and Kruger
1993)*. Shah and Burke’s (1996)* input-output analysis found that students have
the least chance of completing Engineering and most of Law once enrolled, noting
that Medicine is probably similar to Law but they could not model it.

Teaching/Pedagogy

The level of student satisfaction with the teaching and learning activities
provided by the institution has been found to predict persistence, both indirectly by
Bean (1985) and directly by West et al. (1986)* (where withdrawers cited little
encouragement or enthusiasm) and by Abbott-Chapman et al. (1992)*. The latter’s
sample of withdrawers ranked this factor as the fourth most important reason, also
citing uncaring and uninterested teaching staff, an unsuccessful or inadequately
supportive tutoring system, large and impersonal classes, and poor facilities.
Important aspects of teacher behaviour were identified by Care (1995) in a
qualitative Canadian study of distance education nurses. Elliott’s (1992) interviews
identify a link between behaviour of faculty and student persistence.
Persistence has been found to be slightly higher and performance better for
first-year students in learning communities than in traditional classes. Collaborative
learning has been discussed by Tinto (1993), Tinto and Love (1995), and
‘freshman interest groups’ by Tinto and Goodsell (1993, 1993, 1994), Tinto and
Russo (1994), Tinto et al. (1994), and Tinto (1995).
Douglas and Suloch (1995) suggested their results provide some basis to
evaluate the effectiveness of methods of teaching. Their results support the
importance of homework, and indicate that homework and class attendance are
similar in production of good grades. In surveys of economics education, Siegfried
and Fels (1979) found that class size and textbooks are not significant for
performance, and Siegfried and Walstead (1990) found that a good match between
students’ learning style and instructors’ teaching style had positive effects, but both
found that having a graduate student instructor was not relevant. Tay (1994), in a
relatively controlled experimental environment, found that effects relating to the
type of instructor (graduate assistant, tutor, lecturer, foreigners) were significant in
performance for Economics in Singapore, and suggests contrary US findings of
Watts and Lynch (1989) resulted from language ability, not cultural effects.
For distance education, see Biner et al. (1995) on the use of television
classes, and Stone (1988) who cites research showing no significant difference in
performance of on-campus and off-campus Engineering graduate students in video
courses. Also see Long (1994)*, Lumsden and Scott (1983) on the efficacy of
innovative teaching techniques in Economics in the UK, and Becker and Salemi
(1977) on testing the effectiveness of audio-visual tutorials.

Administration

15
 Bean (1982, 1985) found that the opportunity to transfer to another
university directly influenced persistence, and West et al. (1986)* found that 15%
of withdrawers indicated that the administrative arrangements of the institution
were too inflexible.

(vi) Outcomes

Most of the literature uses outcomes related to academic performance in

terms of grades, pass rates etc, and persistence/attrition. The latter two terms are
generally (but not always) defined in terms of voluntary withdrawals, rather than
failures or exclusions. A few outcome measures relate to students’ intellectual
development or personal and social development (Kuh and Vesper 1991,
Volkween 1991, Terenzini and Wright 1987, Pascarella and Terenzini 1983).
Longitudinal research studies often employ some of these outcome
variables as predictors for later years. Results in the earlier years often predict
subsequent performance (Abbott-Chapman et al. l992*, Auyeung and Sands l993*,
Farabaugh-Dorkins 1991, McClelland and Kruger 1993)* and persistence, both
direct (Bean 1982, 1985, Cabrera et al. 1993, Gillespie and Noble 1992, Pascarella
and Terenzini 1983) and indirect (Pascarella and Terenzini 1983). Intellectual
development has been shown to have both a direct and indirect effect on
persistence (Pascarella and Terenzini 1983).

Institutional Actions

Gillespie and Noble’s (1992) study of 6000 students in five institutions

supports Tinto’s view that persistence models are specific to individual institutions
and the time period examined. They discuss the need to identify high-risk students
and develop intervention strategies targeting key factors related to student
retention.
Relevant literature includes Tinto’s (1993) major monograph, Cohen’s
(1994) ERIC Digest on Indicators of Institutional Effectiveness, Price (1993) on
intervention strategies, Abbott-Chapman et al. (1992)*, Terenzini’s et al. (1993)
suggestions for transition, and Henry and Smith’s (1994) system-wide effort in
Colorado to develop a framework for student persistence and success. Davis and
Murrell’s (1994) work on the role of student responsibility in collegiate experience
discusses institutions’ role in encouraging this. See also Upcraft, Lee and Kramer’s
(1995) book on academic advising, and ‘CollegeEdge eases the transition from
H.S. to college’ http://www.collegeedge.com/TBL_HOME.HTML.

Overview

Research on transition, attrition and performance in tertiary education is

extensive, as can be seen from this bibliography.

16
 Research studies and applications based on different theoretical models can
be found in the education, psychology, sociology, statistics and economics
literature. Transition and attrition research studies are mainly from the USA, but
also from the UK, Canada, Israel, Hong Kong and Australia. Much research since
1975 has been based on particular theoretical models, such as those of Tinto,
Spady, Bean, and on their empirical validation by Terenzini, Pascarella and others,
both generally, and in particular contexts.
In general, these studies suggest that transition and persistence are related
to background characteristics, disposition on entry, goal commitment, experiences
after entry – including academic and social integration – and external and
institutional factors. Methodological issues arise as to how these can be measured
and tested. Research indicates significant differences in the sources and frequency
of difficulties in different groups of students, depending on factors such as their
academic and social background, and personal and personality characteristics.
Other factors involve the nature of the institution – its residential character, size,
and selection policies – as well as the type and nature of the course and discipline
area. In the USA this research has resulted in a variety of institutional strategies for
selection, orientation, mentoring, academic and social transition assistance, early
contact and community building, academic involvement and support, monitoring
and early warning counselling and advising, and integration of programs.
Research on the academic performance of students generally and in various
discipline areas and educational institutions, has generally increased in quantity and
methodological complexity in recent years. This is particularly the case in the UK
with the increase in schools’ effectiveness research, which includes publication of
league tables for schools and the recognition of the need for appropriate value-
added multilevel statistical modelling, and also generally with the development of
learning models based on economic production functions. A variety of Australian
studies have been undertaken on transition and academic performance generally
and by discipline area or student category and institutional type.
However, as the findings are not always consistent, research on student
transition, performance and attrition needs to be analysed carefully to ascertain its
validity in the current Australian context and to identify key factors.

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