Distribution Dilemma
Distribution Dilemma
Distribution Dilemma
JIM L E C I N S K I AND H E L EN A B O U C H E Z
On a frosty Monday afternoon in January 2019, Chris-Tia Donaldson, the CEO and founder
of specialty hair care brand Thank God It’s Natural, felt a sense of accomplishment wash over her
as she stood in her company’s warehouse amid cases of products stacked neatly on pallets. “Wow,
we’ve come a long way from selling shea butter at farmers’ markets,” she thought. At the same
time, Donaldson felt the gravity of a critical distribution decision she faced, in the form of a new
deal she would have to accept or reject in just a few days.
Over the past decade, Donaldson had guided Thank God It’s Natural—branded tgin and
pronounced tee-gee-eye-en—into a national brand widely available across the United States at
major retailers, such as Amazon, Target, Walmart, Walgreens, CVS, Rite-Aid, and Sally Beauty.
But one important beauty retailer still did not yet carry tgin: Ulta Beauty, a US chain of 1,196
brick-and-mortar beauty stores located predominantly in high-traffic shopping centers.1 Ulta also
had a robust online storefront in Ulta.com and had cultivated a vibrant social media presence.2
On Donaldson’s desk was an ofer from Ulta Beauty to stock tgin for the first time. On the
surface, signing a distribution agreement with Ulta seemed like the right thing to do. However,
Donaldson was concerned about Ulta’s requirement that tgin develop a new product line that
would be sold exclusively through the beauty retailer’s channels for one year. Ulta not only wanted
roughly a dozen products to fill up to eight feet of shelf space but also wanted at least six of those
products to reflect a fresh new concept that would initially be available only at Ulta. The creation of
this new product line would involve everything from concept development to naming to packaging
© 2022 by the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. This case was prepared by Professor Jim
Lecinski and Helena Bouchez. Cases are developed solely as the basis for class discussion and are not intended to serve
as endorsements, sources of primary data, or illustrations of efective or inefective management. This case was based
on publicly available information and interviews with Chris-Tia Donaldson, Carly Cobbold ’18, and Ella Weems
’20, to whom the authors are grateful. For pedagogical purposes, the authors might have fictionalized individuals,
conversations, strategies, assessments, or other details. To order copies or to request permission to reproduce materials,
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T H A N K G O D I T ’ S N AT U R A L : A D I S T R I B U T I O N D I L E M M A KE1218
design, as well as the additional cost of research and development for the new formulations—a
huge investment of time, money, and resources. Donaldson would need to trust that the new line
would sell well enough at Ulta to recoup her upfront costs.
As a CEO who also was acting as head of sales, Donaldson was grappling with some difficult
questions. Was this distribution agreement with Ulta really the best path forward for tgin? More
broadly, what distribution channel decisions should she make to unlock the next stage of growth
for her company? Ulta wanted her decision by Friday, which meant she had four days to decide.
Company Background
Thank God It’s Natural was a line of natural hair care products designed to address the specific
needs of African American, Latinx, and other consumers with naturally wavy, curly, or kinky hair.
(See Exhibit 1.)
Inception
The company was founded in 2009 in Chicago by Chris-Tia Donaldson while she was
working full time as senior corporate counsel at US–based multinational computer technology
corporation Oracle. Thank God It’s Natural grew out of Donaldson’s personal need to have and to
share products that would allow her and other Black women to more efectively style their specific
hair types.
Initially, the tgin brand was propelled forward in part by the impact of the 2009 American
documentary film Good Hair. Starring and narrated by comedian Chris Rock, the movie explored
the importance and implications of hair types and styles in Black culture. Good Hair accelerated
the trend away from treating Black hair with harsh chemicals and toward more natural looks and
the use of more natural products. (For more detail on the impact of the natural hair movement on
the African American beauty industry, see the below section titled “The Natural Hair Movement.”)
The popularity of Good Hair meant that Donaldson, who was already a recognized expert on
natural hair as a result of her 2009 book, Tank God I’m Natural: Te Ultimate Guide to Caring for
and Maintaining Natural Hair,3 garnered significant media attention, raising her profile within the
beauty industry. Although the book provided a plethora of useful information about natural hair
care and included many DIY hair product recipes, readers increasingly expressed to Donaldson
their desire to purchase products that were ready to use. This consistent feedback and unwavering
demand were instrumental in her decision to create a company that could do just that.
Early Growth
Like a true entrepreneur, Donaldson began by selling T-shirts, books, and skin care products
on weekends at festivals and farmers’ markets across the Chicago area.4 She was also a frequent
speaker at natural hair-focused expos and conferences. These entrepreneurial eforts continued
until 2013, when she made the decision to launch tgin’s inaugural line of hair care products.
Donaldson’s first move was to hire a chemist to help her create the formulations for tgin’s first
four products: Butter Cream Daily Moisturizer, Twist & Define Cream, Sulfate Free Shampoo for
Natural Hair, and Replenishing Conditioner for Natural Hair. To save money, she developed the
fifth product, Honey Miracle Hair Mask, on her own.
Later in 2013, Donaldson expanded exposure to her products by making them available for
purchase online, first from the company website, ThankGodItsNatural.com, then expanding to
Amazon.com. Products also were available at a few local health food stores.5
As tgin grew, Donaldson began slowly building her team. She also cultivated a vibrant brand
presence on tgin’s Facebook page, which gained 25,000 followers.
to be perfect. Donaldson knew that if tgin did not deliver perfectly on this initial shipment, all her
team’s eforts up to this point would be for naught.
A presence in Target put tgin on the map as a brand, but it was up to Donaldson and her
team to make sure it stayed there. On March 15, 2016, Donaldson met with Target buyers at the
retailer’s Minneapolis headquarters to discuss tgin’s Year 1 financial performance. The news was
good: In just 12 months, not only had tgin’s revenue doubled but its door count also had grown
to more than 1,000 Target stores.8
crisis in ‘subprime’ mortgages that triggered the global financial crisis in the summer of 2007 was
that it appeared to take the world by surprise. While subprime markets featured on the radar screens
of the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International
Settlements, no alarm bells were sounded. This is itself somewhat alarming since, following similar
surprise at the Asian financial crisis of barely a decade ago, there has been a substantial amount of
research on ‘surveillance’ and ‘early warning indicators’ of financial crises, both at policy
institutions such as the IMF and the Financial Stability Forum and in academia. Perhaps this is
because of an inherent nonlinearity in the world. If the world is unpredictable we need to learn to
expect the unexpected. If it is not, then we need to develop more refined early warning systems.K E L
LOGG SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
KE1218 T H A N K G O D I T ’ S N AT U R A L : A D I S T R I B U T I O N D I L E M M A
on product development. The problem was that anything she pursued would take additional time
and resources, which already were scarce.
advertising, and event participation, making products more available to Black consumers and
leading to significant additional sales.18
Consumer Behavior
The trend toward natural hairstyles led Black consumers to seek out a suite of hair care products
they could use as part of a hair care “regimen,” or routine, that would allow them to care for their
natural hair efectively.
Hair care regimen refers to the many diferent steps and products required to take proper care,
in this case, of wavy, curly, and coily hair types. A typical regimen requires the use of cleansing,
conditioning, moisturizing, detangling, and styling products.19
Black consumers were estimated in 2018 to have spent more than $1.7 billion on shampoo,
conditioner, and styling products. This includes general market purchases from brands such as
Pantene, for example. (See Exhibit 4.)
Further, Black consumers spent more on hair care than other consumer segments; their
spending on shampoo, conditioner, and styling products represented nearly 20% of general market
spend on total regimen hair care sales despite representing just 13.4% of the US population. 20 The
US Black hair care market was expected to grow 11.2% to $2 billion by 2024.21
More than half of Black female consumers (52%) self-described their hair as type 4.24 (See
Exhibit 5.)
A Vogue article that examined the complicated relationship Black women have with their hair
stated the following:
Te Black and mixed-race experience with Afro hair is a complicated one. Tough each
individual has their own personal journey with their natural hair, most share similar
experiences with regards to overcoming deep-rooted hair discrimination, as well as developing a
true sense of self in the face of Western beauty ideals.
Te natural hair movement has seen many Black and mixed-race people growing out their
hair, chopping of relaxer-thinned strands, using kinkier hair extensions, or wearing traditional
braided styles, in order to embrace—or begin the journey towards truly loving—their
natural hair.
Armed with knowledge and a deep sense of self-love, Black and mixed-race people are owning
their natural hair, reclaiming their identity, and celebrating Black beauty.25
In the same article, a Vogue assistant shared her journey to choosing natural hair:
After years of relaxing my hair and wearing weaves to fit in with Eurocentric beauty ideals, I
decided to take the path of transitioning my hair back to its natural state. Tis was a journey
of self-discovery, and of learning not only about my hair but my culture. With Afro hair being
so versatile and diverse, I had to really learn what was good for my hair. It feels empowering to
have this knowledge. I now see my haircare as more of a wellness routine.26
The main styling options for natural hair included braids, locs (dreadlocks), Afro, and press
(a process that temporarily straightened hair using heat rather than chemicals).27 The natural hair
movement led Black women to seek out and buy specialty products, such as tgin’s, that allowed
them not only to achieve these natural hair looks but also to develop additional styles, such as flat
twists, braid-outs, two-strand twist, and flex-rod sets, among others.
Overview
Hair care distribution channels in 2018 took a variety of forms and configurations. Channels
could be direct, meaning the brands sold directly to the consumer, or indirect, meaning products
passed through one or more intermediaries before reaching the consumer. Brands also often
engaged distributors to store products in their warehouses, delivering them to retailers as needed.
For example, in its relationship with Target, tgin shipped its product to a distributor, who then
delivered it to Target’s warehouses.
Some brands ofered products via a single channel (e.g., in-store), but it was more typical for
them to make products available for purchase in multiple channels (e.g., online and in-store).
Increasingly, brands were adopting an omnichannel approach to marketing. The trend toward
omnichannel was catalyzed in 2013 as a way to defend against “showrooming,” a practice in which
a consumer looked at a product in-store and then went home and ordered the item online at a
better price.28 An omnichannel system fully integrated the functions that allowed consumers to
shop—that is, to research, purchase, communicate, engage with, and consume the brand—across
online, mobile, social, and of-line physical channels.29
Consumers could purchase hair care products in a variety of in-store and online channels, as
defined by Nielsen and IRI:30
• Retail, i.e., mass merchandisers, drugstores, and specialty beauty stores
• Club stores
• Professional (beauty supply and hair salons)
• Military Exchanges (PX, BX, NEX, etc.)*
• Convenience stores, grocery stores, and dollar stores
Additionally, consumers could purchase products directly from a brand’s website or through
social media platforms such as Instagram, Facebook, and Pinterest.
* PX is the abbreviation for Postal Exchange, a department-style store similar to a Walmart, found in Army military
installations. The name of the exchange varies based on the branch of service, i.e., Base Exchange (BX) on Air
Force bases; Navy Exchange (NEX) on Navy installations; Marine Corps Exchange (MCX) on Marine Corps
installations; and Coast Guard Exchange (CGX) on Coast Guard installations.
* Each SKU, or stock keeping unit, is a unique product type with its own alphanumeric code used for easily tracking
store inventory.
also had invited tgin’s social media and accounting leaders to join, thinking a few folks less close to
the potential Ulta deal might keep the discussion more objective.
As the team members ate their lunch, Donaldson’s assistant connected a laptop to the projector
and pulled up the presentation slides that contained the summary of the Ulta distribution deal.
Donaldson began, “As you know, Ulta Beauty is interested in adding tgin to its growing slate
of natural hair care products. It’s an exciting opportunity for our brand and an important decision
that not only will impact our business today but also what it can become in the next few years.
“Here’s what you need to know about Ulta Beauty,” Donaldson continued. “The company
currently has 1,196 doors in 50 states and did $5.88 billion in sales in 2018,38 with a three-year
CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 14.1 percent.
“Ulta is also aggressively looking for ways to better connect with Black consumers, and that’s
good for those of us creating natural hair products specifically for this segment,” Donaldson said.
“They already carry brands such as Shea Moisture, Carol’s Daughter, Tracee Ellis’s brand Pattern
Beauty, and Mixed Chicks—and that’s pretty good company.”39 Donaldson flipped to the next
slide: “And there is plenty of opportunity for Ulta to attract Black consumers, as you can see from
this brand snapshot from Numerator.40 (See Exhibit 8.)
“Be that as it may, I’ve gathered us together for some debate around whether we should sign
the distribution deal with Ulta. That’s number one,” Donaldson said. “But I also thought this
would also be a good time to revisit our existing distribution strategy and whether this deal fits in.
I also want to explore whether it makes sense to continue with what we’ve already laid out or if
there are other channels we should be focusing more resources on that might be more impactful to
our success longer term.”
Ordering Shipping
All purchase orders and invoices will be transacted only Brand incurs the entire cost of shipping to Brand’s four
via Retailer’s Electronic Data Interface (EDI) ordering US distribution centers.
system, at Brand’s expense.
Shipping windows are the first two business days of each
Orders will be placed by end of business every Friday. month.
No minimum orders and no guaranteed volumes. 2% of entire order value will be deducted for every day
a shipment is incomplete or late.
Incorrect labeling, e.g., labels in the wrong place or labels
missing PO#, will result in rejected shipment and Brand
incurring a chargeback.
Merchandising—Retailer Marketing—Retailer
There will be no cost to the Brand for either physical or Retailer agrees to use commercially reasonable efforts
online shelf space. to promote the distribution and sale of
Brand agrees to be displayed as Retailer sees fit per its Brand’s products.
current physical and online plan-o-gram shelf sets.
Brand must cover all costs for any custom displays,
including labor and installation.
Marketing—Brand Marketing—Brand
Brand must provide digital assets for use in Retailer’s Brand will provide 100 cases of samples for Retailer’s
online store, catalogs, flyers, and the like. staff at no cost.
Brand will contribute $30,000 co-op dollars per year for Brand will fund four major promotions per year (e.g.,
print/radio/TV/flyers/online. buy 1, get 1 at 50% off).
Note: This summary is a fictional account created by the authors specifically for the purposes of understanding the issues around
distribution decisions. Although it contains all the elements typically found in a distribution agreement, the actual terms of the
distribution agreement between Ulta and tgin remain confidential.
Donaldson waited a beat for the information to sink in. “Naturally, we’ll need to consider
what all of this means in terms of costs and revenues. But now that we’ve level set, and you have a
sense of all the moving parts, I want to hear what you think.”
Donaldson got up and walked to the whiteboard. On it, she wrote the words “pros” and
“cons” with a line down the middle. What followed was a spirited discussion that surfaced strong
arguments both for and against moving forward with distribution at Ulta. After an hour, her
assistant pointed to her watch, a signal to Donaldson to wrap things up. As the group drifted out
of the conference room back to their desks, Donaldson pondered for a moment the arguments
that had been raised during the meeting, then went back to her desk to clear her mind and
make a call.
• “I hate to kill the buzz on this thing, but what about all the signs pointing to the fact
that brick-and-mortar is dying? What happens when all the other not-so-savvy retailers in
power center locations go out of business—or move their businesses online—and Ulta is
basically a 10,000-square-foot lonely outpost in a dead mall with no foot traffic?”
• “Think about the shelf space! That’s crazy good, and we know from experience maximizing
shelf space is where the profit is.”
• “We need to develop our direct-to-consumer channel beyond just having products
available for purchase on our website, but we’re already overloaded with the existing direct-
to-retailer packaging and shipping stuf. If we take on Ulta, that’s going to increase all of
that exponentially. We can’t do everything.”
• “I know we’re against taking outside money, but it seems like our longer-term goals keep
getting pushed back. I’m worried we’ll get to the point where we can’t catch up. What
about investor-backed loans? Or maybe we could crowdfund a new product.”
• “Our customers already are shopping at dollar stores, where everything is $1, $2, or $5.
That’s where we should be rather than specialty beauty.”
• “I feel like we need to apply some resources to experiment on new social shopping
platforms just so that we’re not caught flat-footed if a new channel takes of. Like the new
in-chat shopping features on WhatsApp.”
• “My cousin is in the Army, and she says they have very few products at the PX for natural
hair and what they do have is mostly from big companies.”
Source: Statista, “Estimated Market Value of Hair Care in the United States from 2014 to 2025, by Product,” April 13, 2018,
www.statista.com/statistics/824454/us-market-value-hair-care-by-product/.
Source: Black Haircare, US, August 2019, industry report by Mintel,“Figure 23: Multi-Outlet Sales of Black Haircare Products, by Leading
Black Haircare Companies, Rolling 52 Weeks 2018 and 2019,” 31.
Source: Black Haircare, US, August 2019, Mintel,“Estimated Total Expenditures and Forecast, by Black Consumers, by Regimen Segment,
at Current Prices 2014-2024,” 11.
Source: Black Haircare, US, August 2019, Mintel,“Figure 51: Hair Texture—Females, June 2019,” 57.
Source: Strategic Solutions International,“Multicultural Hair Care Market Overview,” 2020, 12.
Exhibit 7: Hair Care Shopping Locations, April 2016 vs. July 2018
Source: Black Haircare, US, September 2018, Mintel,“Figure 4: Haircare Shopping Locations,April 2016 vs. July 2018,” 62.
Endnotes
1 “Company Overview,” Ulta Beauty, accessed September 23, 2020, http://ir.ultabeauty.com/company-
information/company-overview/default.aspx.
2 Ibid.
3 Chris-Tia E. Donaldson, Tank God I’m Natural: Te Ultimate Guide to Caring for and Maintaining Natural
Hair (United States: TgiNesis Press, 2008).
4 Chris-Tia Donaldson, Tis Is Only a Test: What Breast Cancer Taught Me About Faith, Love, Hair, and Business
(Chicago: Miracle Press, 2019), 86.
5 Donaldson, Tis is Only a Test, 109.
6 Ibid.
7 Chris-Tia Donaldson, in an interview with the authors, September 15, 2020.
8 Donaldson, Tis Is Only a Test, 153.
9 Donaldson, interview.
10 Ibid.
11 Ibid.
12 Ibid.
13 Ibid.
14 “Estimated Market Value of Hair Care in the United States from 2014 to 2025, by Product,” Statista, April 13,
2018, https://www.statista.com/statistics/824454/us-market-value-hair-care-by-product/.
15 “Hair Care Market in US by Product and Distribution Channel—Forecast and Analysis 2020-2024,”
TechNavio, March 2020, https://www.technavio.com/report/hair-care-market-in-us-industry-analysis.
16 Debby Garbato, “Natural, Organic Beauty Exploding at Mass Retailers,” Drug Store News, October 28, 2019,
https://drugstorenews.com/natural-organic-beauty-exploding-mass-retailers.
17 Black Haircare, US, August 2019, an industry report by Mintel, 31.
18 Black Haircare, US, September 2018, Mintel, 25, 39.
19 Black Haircare, US, August 2019, 9.
20 “Quick Facts,” US Census Bureau, accessed November 2, 2020, https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/
US/PST045219.
21 Black Haircare, US, August 2019, 11.
22 Donaldson, Tank God I’m Natural, 20.
23 Ibid., 49.
24 Black Haircare, US, August 2019, “Figure 51: Hair Texture—Females, June 2019,” 57.
25 Twiggy Jalloh, “Six Vogue Stafers Reflect On Their Changing Relationship with Their Natural Hair,” Vogue,
September 15, 2020, https://www.vogue.co.uk/beauty/article/afro-hair.
26 Ibid.
27 Black Haircare, US, September 2019, Mintel, “Figure 53: Hairstyles Worn Within the Last Three Years, June
2019,” 59.
28 Savannah Louis, “A Brief History of Omnichannel Marketing,” NectarOm, January 5, 2015,
https://nectarom.com/2015/01/05/brief-history-omnichannel-marketing/.
29 Oliver Emrich, Michael Paul, and Thomas Rudolph, “Shopping Benefits of Multichannel Assortment Integration
and the Moderating Role of Retailer Type,” Journal of Retailing 91, no. 2 (2015): 326–42.
30 Sally Martin, “CPG Syndicated Data Markets: Part 2—The Nitty-Gritty,” CPG Data Insights, May 29, 2018,
https://www.cpgdatainsights.com/understand-your-database/markets-part-2-the-nitty-gritty.
31 Strategic Solutions International, “Multicultural Hair Care Market Overview,” 2020, 12.
32 Black Haircare, US, September 2018, 62.
33 “What Goes Into A Slotting Fee?” Bedrock Analytics, August 14, 2019, https://www.bedrockanalytics.com/
blog/what-goes-into-a-slotting-fee/.
34 “The Use of Slotting Allowances in the Retail Grocery Industry: Selected Case Studies in Five Product
Categories,” Federal Trade Commission, November 14, 2003, p. vii, http://www.ftc.gov/os/2003/11/
slottingallowancerpt031114.pdf.
35 Ibid.
36 Ibid.
37 Donaldson, interview.
38 “Ulta Beauty, Inc., Annual Financials,” Marketwatch, accessed October 23, 2020,
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ulta/financials.
39 Jacqueline Laurean Yates and Aimee Simeon, “Eight Black-Owned Brands at Ulta Beauty You Should Know,”
Refinery29, June 1, 2020, https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/ulta-black-makeup-brands.
40 “Ulta, Numerator Brand Snapshot,” Numerator, October 27, 2018, https://snapshot.numerator.com/brand/ulta.
41 CoralSage Walker-Dale, “Key Takeaways From Indie BeautyX Retail Summit—Dallas,” Essential Wholesales
& Labs, May 15, 2018, https://library.essentialwholesale.com/key-takeaways-from-indie-beautyx-retail;
Val Sanford, “Negotiating Successful Retail Contracts,” Essential Wholesales & Labs, June 5, 2018,
https://library.essentialwholesale.com/negotiating-successful-retail-contracts.