Once more with feeling: Russia Bobo Lo

and the Asia-Pacific August 2019

 ONCE MORE WITH FEELING: RUSSIA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC

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 ONCE MORE WITH FEELING: RUSSIA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The rise of Asia is the central challenge of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy.
No other continent will have a greater impact on Russia’s international
prospects in the coming decades. The Asia-Pacific, in particular, is already
the principal region of global growth, geopolitical rivalry, and clashing
values. Moscow’s long-time Westerncentrism is increasingly obsolescent,
and the need for a fundamental reorientation of Russian foreign policy has
become compelling.

Recent developments point to a new level of commitment in Russia’s

engagement with the Asia-Pacific. Moscow has moved beyond platitudes
about a ‘turn to the East’ and is pursuing a multi-dimensional approach
towards the region: reinforcing the partnership with China; reaching out to
other major players; and promoting itself as a significant security and
economic contributor. Yet Russia’s emergence as an Asia-Pacific power
is far from assured. The obstacles are formidable and the limitations of its
influence are profound. And it remains unclear whether the Kremlin is
ready to treat the region as more than just another theatre in a larger
contest for global order and governance.

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 ONCE MORE WITH FEELING: RUSSIA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC

The rise of Asia is the central challenge of Russian foreign policy. The
past few years have seen an unrelenting focus on Moscow’s troubled
relations with the West, dominated by themes of betrayal, mistrust, and
the flouting of international norms. Yet amid the sound and fury, a new
reality has nevertheless emerged: effective engagement with Asia holds
the key to Russia’s prospects in the twenty-first century world — as a
regional actor, global player, and good international citizen.

Most immediately, Asia is transforming the physical environment in which

Russia must operate. The Asia-Pacific, in particular, is emerging as the
primary region of global economic growth, geopolitical rivalry, and
normative contestation. Meanwhile, the so-called ‘rules-based international
order’ is giving way to an increasingly anarchic state — a new world
disorder.1 US-led liberal internationalism is a receding speck in Donald
Trump’s eyeline, transatlantic consensus has become an oxymoron, and
Europe — for three centuries Russia’s main inspiration and nemesis — is
more divided than since before the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

Policymakers in Moscow now face a radically different set of

circumstances. Many of the assumptions underpinning Russian foreign
policy even just a few years ago no longer apply. The world has changed,
and so must Russia. The requirement to adapt goes beyond simply
showing greater interest in once neglected parts of the planet. It also
entails an internal transformation. Successive generations of leaders have
acted on the premise that Russia is a timeless great power. However,
being a great power in an Asia-Pacific–centred world involves a
conceptual leap of imagination, a re-examining of core principles and how
they are to be implemented in an ever more demanding context.

The big question is whether Moscow is up to the task. Is it ready and able
to move away from the almost obsessive Westerncentrism that has …Asia is transforming
historically defined Russian foreign policy? Is the Kremlin finally getting the physical environment
serious about engagement with the Asia-Pacific, and reinventing Russia
in which Russia must
as a regional and global actor? Or is the current emphasis on Asia merely
the ‘latest thing’, a reflexive response to events — principally the crisis in operate.
relations with the West — and therefore reversible?

This Analysis argues that real changes are taking place, both in Moscow’s
approach towards the Asia-Pacific and in Russian foreign policy more
generally. There is a demonstrably greater appetite to reach out to the
countries and institutions of the region. This reflects an appreciation that
the old familiarities of interaction — ‘business as usual’ — with the United
States and Europe are no longer fit for purpose or sustainable. The Asia-
Pacific is the future.

However, there are significant doubts about Russia’s commitment to the

region. We have, after all, been here before. Nearly three decades ago,

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President Boris Yeltsin announced his intention to pursue a “full-scale

foreign policy with multiple vectors”, and of working “with equal diligence”
to develop relations with the East and West.2 More recently in 2010,
Moscow proclaimed a “turn to the East” (povorot na vostok).3 And yet the
‘Asianisation’ of Russian foreign policy has often flattered to deceive,
highlighting a gulf between visionary statements and underwhelming
substance. At times, the Asia-Pacific has appeared to be just another
theatre in a larger game of contesting American global leadership and the
liberal world order.

Russia is only at the beginning of what will be a long, uneven, and often
We can expect the painful process of adjustment, one riven with contradictions. We can
expect the Kremlin to devote increasing attention and resources to Asia-
Kremlin to devote
Pacific affairs, yet the United States will still loom largest in its worldview.
increasing attention and The Sino-Russian partnership will continue to play a central role in
resources to Asia-Pacific President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy, but Europe will retain a powerful
economic and cultural pull on the Russian elite. Putin — and his
affairs, yet the United successors — will strive to recast Russia as a responsible international
States will still loom citizen, but geopolitical imperatives and old-fashioned power projection
will never be far away in the Kremlin’s calculus.
largest in its worldview.

WHAT’S IN A NAME?
Before turning to the detail of Russian policy on the Asia-Pacific, we should
address the issue of nomenclature. Moscow is unequivocal in subscribing
to the description ‘Asia-Pacific region’ (Aziatsko-tikhookeanskii region —
ATR). It has no truck with the concept of ‘Indo-Pacific’,4 which it regards
as a politically loaded term. This is especially so in the current climate,
when Indo-Pacific has become associated with US efforts to push back
against the rise of China. For Moscow, the central importance of the Sino-
Russian partnership makes it imperative to avoid giving gratuitous offence
to Beijing and being implicated in perceived attempts to contain China.
Language is critical.

In any case, Indo-Pacific would be misleading in the context of Russian

policy. The Kremlin is far more interested in the Asia-Pacific than it is in
the Indian Ocean or Indian subcontinent. That means engagement with
China in the first place, but also with Japan, the two Koreas, the United
States as a Pacific power, and security in Northeast Asia. India figures in
the larger geopolitical picture, but regionally Russians tend to view it as a
supernumerary member of the Asia-Pacific community and not of equal
weight to China.

The narrower scope of the Asia-Pacific has implications in other directions

as well. When Russian policymakers and thinkers speak of the region, they
emphasise its ‘Asia’ (continental) rather than ‘Pacific’ (maritime) dimension.
This is one reason why, for example, the American security presence in
Northeast Asia is seen as lacking legitimacy. The United States does not
‘belong’ — at least not like China or Russia. It is an outside (super)power

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whose presence is intrusive and increasingly destabilising. Similarly,

Moscow identifies Australia as a Western rather than Asian ally of the
United States, and considers it something of an outsider in Asian affairs.
Consistent with this Asia/Pacific dichotomy, relations with Pacific Island
countries, such as Fiji, do not form part of Moscow’s ‘turn to the East’.

THE ASIA-PACIFIC IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY

Putin approaches the Asia-Pacific from a global perspective. The region
matters principally to the Kremlin because it is central to world order —
and disorder — in the twenty-first century. It is in the Asia-Pacific where
geopolitical rivalries will be most intense, as exemplified by the growing
strategic confrontation between the United States and China. The Asia-
Pacific will be at the heart of global economic growth and competition. And
it is there where the battle of ideas, norms, and institutions will rage at its
fiercest. If Russia is to make good on its ambitions to be a resurgent global
power, it has no choice but to be actively involved in the region.
If Russia is to make
Inseparable from the objective requirement for Russia to engage with the
Asia-Pacific is the status that comes with this. There is an emerging good on its ambitions to
consensus in Moscow that if Russia is to be taken seriously by others, it be a resurgent global
will need to do more than just be the ‘anti-West’, a spoiler of American and
power, it has no choice
European aims. It will have to develop a positive agenda of its own, and
assume a prominent profile as an independent player.5 but to be actively
The Asia-Pacific also holds another kind of symbolic importance. Moscow
involved in the region.
sees the countries of the region as dynamic, in contrast to a declining,
tired Europe.6 This is not to say that the Russian elite have shed their
Eurocentric outlook. Trade with the European Union is still more than two-
and-a-half times that with China.7 Europe is the number one market for
Russian oil and gas exports. It contains several of the most popular
country destinations for Russian tourists.8 And senior figures in the Putin
regime continue to invest in Europe and send their children to European
(mainly British) schools and universities.

However, in many respects Europe is seen as passé. The 2008 global

financial crisis, the agonies of the eurozone, a collective inability to
manage the refugee crisis, divisions within the European Union have all
conveyed an impression of growing dysfunctionality and weakness. Add
to this Russia’s long-standing feeling of being marginalised by the West,
and association with an energised, non-Western world has never seemed
more attractive.

The Asia-Pacific is something of a blank canvas for Russian foreign policy

— a legacy of past neglect and Eurocentric bias. At one level, this
presents formidable challenges. Russia’s lack of standing in the region,
and its great power sense of entitlement, have previously constrained
engagement. Moscow has struggled to convince others that it has
something worthwhile to offer.

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Lately, though, there has been an observable shift in regional attitudes

towards Russia, whose prospects have, paradoxically, been strengthened
by its relatively low profile. In marked contrast to Soviet times, and to the
case in Europe, few countries in the Asia-Pacific identify Russia as a
threat or a malign actor. Moscow has been careful to manage
expectations — both its own and those of others. It does not pretend to be
a big hitter in the region, but instead portrays itself as ‘one of the guys’,
merely wishing to make a useful contribution. It has benefited here from
the rise of China, for good and for ill. Their partnership has added ballast
to Russia’s presence in the Asia-Pacific. Conversely, mounting concerns
over Beijing’s behaviour have encouraged other regional parties, such as
Japan, India, and Vietnam, to reach out to Moscow.

In short, circumstances favour a more active Russian involvement in Asia-

Pacific affairs. It helps that its relations with nearly all states in the region
are comfortable, while the main exceptions to the rule — Japan and the
United States — regard China as a greater threat than Russia. All this has
created a sense of opportunity in Moscow. Far from being inhibited by the
deterioration of relations with the West, and Russia’s unimpressive track
record in the Asia-Pacific, Putin’s actions reveal a new purposefulness. No
longer content with uttering the usual banalities about engagement,
Moscow is vigorously pursuing several goals. These include:

• reinforcing the “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China,9 both

for its own sake and as a critical element in regional and global power
balances

• maximising Russia’s strategic flexibility (and minimising its China-

dependence) by strengthening ties with other Asian powers — Japan,
India, both Koreas, Vietnam, and other ASEAN states
Moscow is…reinforcing
the “comprehensive • positioning Russia as a visible and constructive player in regional
security-building — not just on specific issues such as denuclearisation
strategic partnership” with on the Korean Peninsula, but in Northeast Asia more broadly
China, both for its own
• promoting Russia as a major economic contributor in areas where it
sake and as a critical has significant comparative advantages, such as the energy sector
element in regional and and arms
global power balances. • rebooting Russia as a good regional and international citizen through
expanded engagement in multilateral structures, such as APEC, the
East Asia Summit, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF PUTIN’S ASIA-PACIFIC

POLICY
Aspiration is one thing, performance quite another. Putin envisages
Russia playing a more influential role in Asia-Pacific affairs, but is such
optimism justified? Moscow is certainly more responsive to developments

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in the region than it has been for some decades, but how much progress
has it achieved? And if indeed Russia emerges as a significant player,
what will be the nature of its influence?

To answer these questions, we need to examine the principal elements of

Putin’s Asia-Pacific policy, and look at how they feed into his dual vision
of Russia as a key regional player and global great power. As its
objectives indicate, the Kremlin’s approach rests on five building blocks:
the partnership with China; the quest for strategic flexibility; a renewed
activism in security-building; an expanding economic agenda; and the
promotion of Russia as a constructive actor in the region.

THE CHINA–RUSSIA PARTNERSHIP

The Sino-Russian partnership is the cornerstone not just of Moscow’s
The Sino-Russian
engagement with Asia but of Putin’s foreign policy in general. No
relationship matters more to the Kremlin. China is much more than a partnership is the
bilateral partner; it is crucial to Putin’s grand enterprise of positioning cornerstone not just of
Russia at the forefront of global affairs, the great middle power between
the United States and China. For Moscow, the partnership is a force
Moscow’s engagement
multiplier for Russian influence and status around the world, and is in large with Asia but of Putin’s
part the reason Russia enjoys an international prominence not seen since foreign policy in general.
the fall of the Soviet Union.

Admittedly, this enhanced profile is not always a positive. The United

States National Defense Strategy and National Security Strategy identify
Russia, along with China, as the two greatest threats to American interests
and the liberal world order.10 Yet for Putin and the ruling elite, such
attention, however unfavourable, is better than being ignored. The
partnership with China gives Russia geopolitical leverage vis-à-vis the
United States and Europe, as well as political weight and normative
gravitas — the ‘axis of authoritarians’ talked up by some US
commentators.11 It reinforces a conviction in Moscow that Russia, not the
West, finds itself “on the right side of history” 12 and that, as Putin has put
it, “the liberal idea has become obsolete”.13

In some respects, the relationship with China represents the greatest

success of Putin’s foreign policy. The current level of cooperation is
unprecedented. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have met each
other more frequently than any other two international leaders.14 Bilateral
trade has passed the US$100 billion mark,15 China has become Russia’s
leading country economic partner, and Russia has overtaken Saudi
Arabia to be the number one source of Chinese oil imports.16 Military
cooperation has reached new heights. There have been several landmark
arms deals, along with a series of high-profile military exercises at sea and
on land.17 In July 2019, the two sides conducted their first-ever joint air
patrol, and a new comprehensive military agreement is in the works.18

The two sides agree on most international issues. They seek to constrain
US ‘hegemonic’ power. They oppose liberal interventionism and have

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exercised their veto power in the UN Security Council to this purpose —

most conspicuously on Syria. They hold convergent views on North Korea
and cyber-sovereignty.19 And even in potentially contentious areas, such
as Central Asia and the Arctic, they have found a modus vivendi.

True, the Sino-Russian relationship is increasingly unequal. China’s

economy is more than eight times the size of Russia’s,20 and the gap is
likely to widen further in coming years. But so far this inequality has been
fairly well managed. Both sides continue to pretend that theirs is an equal,
if asymmetrical, partnership: China’s economic dominance being
counterbalanced by Russia’s superiority in nuclear weapons, geopolitical
reach, and diplomatic experience. Besides, for the Kremlin it is much more
important to counterbalance the United States — a ‘clear and present
danger’ — than it is to fret about China’s ascent, which is a longer-term
and still uncertain process.

Yet this picture is less perfect than it looks. The Sino-Russian partnership,
for all its dividends, comes at a price. So close do Moscow and Beijing
seem that Russian policy in the Asia-Pacific often appears to be a mere
extension of its relationship with China. Moscow speaks of pursuing an
independent foreign policy, but dutifully follows Beijing’s lead on many
issues — from South China Sea territoriality to North Korea to
development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The irony is that the
Kremlin has ‘succeeded’ too well in ramming home the message of Sino-
So close do Moscow Russian convergence. Their public displays of affection have had the
effect of persuading others that the relationship is much closer than it is,
and Beijing seem that that it amounts even to an authoritarian alliance.21 This has limited
Russian policy in the Moscow’s options elsewhere in the region, and diminished its leverage
with Beijing.
Asia-Pacific often
appears to be a mere In fact, Russia and China are separate actors whose perspectives,
interests, and priorities can diverge significantly. For example, although
extension of its
they agree that the post–Cold War international system is unsatisfactory
relationship with China. in many respects, they draw different conclusions. The Kremlin has long
taken the view that it offers Russia very little and should give way to a
more ‘democratic’ order that would centre on a de facto Big Three — the
United States, China, and Russia.22

Beijing, by contrast, hopes to reform rather than replace the international

system. Although Xi has pursued a more ambitious foreign policy than his
predecessors, his vocal support for global free trade and combating
climate change23 suggests that he still sees the current framework,
despite its flaws, as the only one available.24 It is also apparent that
Beijing’s vision of a future world order centres on a Big Two — the United
States and China.25 The subtext is that Russia would occupy a lower rung
along with other major, but secondary, powers, such as the European
Union, Japan, and India.

For the time being, such differences are not critical. It suits Moscow and
Beijing to make common cause when their respective relations with the

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United States are so difficult, and when both regimes are under some
democratic pressure.26 However, we should not assume that they view
the world in the same way, or that they are willing, let alone able, to
coordinate on grand strategy or to establish post-Western norms and
institutions. The recent joint air patrol points to growing tactical
cooperation at the military level, but is scarcely evidence of a broader
alliance-type relationship.

THE QUEST FOR STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY

The Kremlin recognises the pitfalls of becoming captive to a Beijing-first
agenda. Recent semi-official publications note the potential for a
domineering China, and a marginalised Russia, in the context of Greater
Eurasia and the proliferation of the BRI.27 More concretely, there has been
a surge in Russian diplomatic efforts to expand relations across Asia. In …there has been a surge
addition to continuing discussions with Tokyo over a possible resolution of
in Russian diplomatic
their long-running territorial dispute, Moscow is reaching out to both North
and South Korea,28 while injecting new energy into its once moribund links efforts to expand
with Southeast Asia. It is also working beyond the Asia-Pacific region: relations across Asia.
reinforcing ties with the Central Asian republics; taking an active interest
in Afghanistan; stepping up security cooperation with Pakistan; pursuing
intergovernmental and second-track diplomacy with India; and, farther
afield, re-engaging with the political mainstream in Europe, and sustaining
a personal rapport between Presidents Putin and Trump.

The rationale behind these wide-ranging initiatives is clear enough.

However strong the partnership with China, it is unhealthy for Russia to
rely on its good intentions or assume that their interests will invariably
converge. The Kremlin is not so naïve as to think that better relations with
Japan or India will help contain the rise of China, and it is especially careful
to avoid giving Beijing this impression. Still, it understands the importance
of expanding its options, while gently reminding Beijing not to take Russia
for granted. Although cooperation with China will remain the bedrock of
policy towards the Asia-Pacific, the quest for strategic flexibility is critical
to promoting Russia as a major player in the region.

Yet if the logic of diversification is straightforward, implementing it has

proved anything but. Moscow labours under several handicaps. The most
significant is Russia’s shallow footprint in the Asia-Pacific, which leaves it
heavily reliant on the goodwill and forbearance of others. This limitation is
accentuated by the grim state and poor prognosis of relations with the
United States. Washington’s hostility to Russian involvement in Asia-
Pacific affairs is a formidable obstacle in itself. But it also has a ‘contagion’
effect in that it influences the behaviour of America’s many allies and
partners in the region. The upshot is that while the Kremlin is keen to dilute
Russia’s China-dependence, there are few practical ways in which this
can be achieved.

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The difficulties are illustrated by the tortuous course of Russia’s relations

with Japan. Ostensibly, the main sticking point between Moscow and
Tokyo is the dispute over the sovereignty of the South Kuril Islands/
Northern Territories, taken over by the Soviet Union in 1945.29 At various
times, the two sides have looked close to a settlement, based on the 1956
‘Khrushchev formula’ that would return the two smallest islands to Japan
in exchange for a formal peace treaty concluding the Second World War.
However, on each occasion negotiations have stalled.

In recent years, determined efforts by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo

Abe have offered fresh hope of a rapprochement. Abe, whose father
Shintaro was one of the prime movers behind earlier attempts to finalise
a peace deal, has adopted a pragmatic line premised on the (unspoken)
belief that it is more important to reach an accommodation with Moscow
than it is to obtain the full return of the islands.30 For Tokyo, China’s
growing assertiveness makes it imperative to ensure that the Sino-
Russian partnership does not evolve into a full-blown alliance. That means
finding some kind of face-saving arrangement over the islands. Abe has
also soft-pedalled on G7 sanctions against Russia, and hosted Putin for a
state visit to Japan in the face of American objections.31

Abe’s conciliatory approach would seem to present a real opening to

Putin, who has the opportunity to secure an advantageous peace treaty,
hold on to most (93 per cent) of the disputed territory, improve the
prospects of a substantial influx of Japanese investment, and maximise
Russia’s strategic flexibility in the Asia-Pacific. And yet there has been no
meaningful progress. Territorial negotiations are deadlocked, with
Moscow making any deal contingent on a review (read: downsizing) of
US–Japan military ties.32 New issues, such as Japan’s deployment of the
US Aegis ballistic missile defence system, have intruded to sour the
atmosphere. And although the two countries have re-established their 2+2
high-level dialogue (involving the respective foreign and defence
ministers), this has brought no tangible results.

In fact, the main stumbling block in Russia–Japan relations is not the

…the main stumbling territorial dispute, but sharply divergent threat perceptions. For Tokyo, the
block in Russia–Japan rise of China represents the all-encompassing challenge, while the US
alliance continues to be the centrepiece of Japan’s national security. To
relations is not the Moscow, however, China is Russia’s strategic partner in the Asia-Pacific
territorial dispute, but and globally, while the United States is the ‘chief enemy’, one that poses
sharply divergent threat a direct threat to its interests. While Russian policymakers might ideally
like to have Japan counterbalance Chinese power in the Asia-Pacific, they
perceptions. attach far greater importance to cultivating the partnership with China as
a global bulwark against American ‘hegemonism’. This will remain the
case as long as the triangular dynamic between Washington, Beijing, and
Moscow is central to the Kremlin’s worldview.

Russian attitudes are reinforced by the conviction that Japan will inevitably
prioritise its relationship with the United States. In practice, that means

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Tokyo toeing Washington’s line (however reluctantly) on sanctions against

Moscow; siding with the United States on North Korean denuclearisation;
and deploying US missile defence systems on its territory. Viewed from
the Kremlin, such a Japan has little to offer, certainly by comparison with
China. Maintaining a tough line towards Tokyo is therefore more logical
than at first sight. Over time, the Japanese may become more nervous,
wracked by uncertainties over the US security commitment to Northeast
Asia and the rise of Chinese military power, and consequently more
amenable towards Russia.33

Similar considerations apply to India. In theory, there is considerable

scope for Moscow and New Delhi to develop a multifaceted partnership.
India is already the largest market for Russian arms exports.34 It is a
significant customer of civilian nuclear reactors and technology. And major
Indian energy companies such as ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation) and Essar have invested heavily in Russian oil ventures.35

There are also no particular bilateral difficulties. Russia may be a soft

authoritarian regime, and India a democracy, but such differences have
scarcely impinged on their relationship. New Delhi, like Moscow, opposes
Western liberal interventionism, supports the idea of a multipolar world,
and criticised the imposition of sanctions against Russia following the
latter’s annexation of Crimea and occupation of southeast Ukraine.36 The
Russian Government paved the way for Indian accession to the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, and has worked closely with New Delhi within
the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) framework, notably
over the creation of the New Development Bank.

Like Japan, India appears a natural candidate to be one of the pillars of a

diversified Russian policy in Asia. And yet things have not worked out that
…India appears a natural
way — and for largely the same reasons. The most influential is the
overriding importance of the Sino-Russian partnership. Against the candidate to be one of the
background of continuing strategic tensions between Beijing and New pillars of a diversified
Delhi, the Kremlin finds itself having to pick sides. On the BRI, for example,
it has had little choice but to back Xi’s flagship policy over Indian objections.
Russian policy in Asia.

The growing warmth of US–India ties is another major impediment to an

effective policy of diversification. Given that relations with Washington are
at their worst in three decades, the Kremlin can hardly be expected to view
a US-friendly New Delhi as a reliable partner, much less an alternative to
Beijing. While India is certainly no enemy, it sides with the United States
on several crunch issues — freedom of navigation, countering the BRI,
and containing the projection of Chinese naval power in the western
Pacific and Indian Oceans. In the circumstances, the most Moscow can
realistically hope for is that India adheres to a benign neutrality.

There is a third problem. The Russia–India relationship is limited. Beyond

arms and energy cooperation, New Delhi has little to offer. India is a
secondary actor in the Asia-Pacific region. Economically, it ranks well
down the list of Russia’s trading partners.37 And in Central Eurasia it is a

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largely peripheral player. It is symptomatic of Moscow’s relative disregard

for India’s strategic utility that it is increasingly reaching out to Islamabad.
Pakistan ticks many of the right boxes: its relationship with the United
States is deteriorating rapidly; it is close to China; and it wields
considerable influence in Afghanistan, where Russia is once again
actively involved.38

SECURITY-BUILDING: CARVING OUT A NICHE

One of the big challenges facing Russia in the Asia-Pacific is to prove that
One of the big challenges it can make a positive contribution. The most plausible area is in security-
facing Russia in the building, where it has many of the tools to be a serious player: significant
Asia-Pacific is to prove military capabilities; geopolitical reach; permanent membership of the
United Nations Security Council; and a rich tradition of high-level
that it can make a positive diplomacy.
contribution.
The stalemate over North Korea’s nuclear program would appear to offer
Moscow a promising opportunity. Donald Trump’s showy summitry,
including his June 2019 impromptu meeting with Kim Jong-un in the
demilitarised zone (DMZ),39 has yet to result in concrete outcomes.
Pyongyang has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons, while
Washington is equally unwilling to ease sanctions without clear quid pro
quo in the form of some disarmament. China, North Korea’s chief patron,
is content with a status quo whereby North Korea retains its nuclear
weapons but does not test them. However, the continuing existence of
this arsenal has become yet another sore in the US–China relationship,
with the two sides trading accusations of bad faith and provocative
behaviour. Meanwhile, there remains the constant threat of Pyongyang
upping the ante, whether as a negotiating tactic or out of frustration at the
absence of sanctions relief.40

Enter Russia. As his April 2019 summit with Kim Jong-un in Vladivostok
showed, Putin aspires to play the part of honest broker, whose intentions
are noble: to achieve a peaceful resolution of the Korean nuclear issue
and facilitate the creation of a stable security environment in Northeast
Asia.41 The cost-benefit equation is very attractive to Moscow. Putin —
and Russia — would stand to gain considerable credit in the event of a
successful diplomatic initiative. And if such diplomacy should fail, blame
would lie not with Russia but with the major protagonists — North Korea,
the United States, and China.

Moscow’s calculus, however, is flawed. Russia is not a neutral party, and

the Kremlin’s attempts to pretend otherwise convince no one. Its earlier
espousal of the ‘freeze-for-freeze’ proposal — suspension of US–South
Korean military exercises in return for a moratorium on North Korean
nuclear tests — bound it tightly to the Chinese position. Despite the
Kremlin’s depiction of ‘freeze-for-freeze’ as a joint Sino-Russian initiative,
it was evident that Russia was not acting as an independent or neutral
party but was following China’s lead. The Putin–Kim meeting in

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Vladivostok highlighted this. The lack of substance at the summit exposed

it for what it was: an opportunistic public relations exercise, in which
Russia was accorded the appearance of influence, while being careful not
to exceed its (Beijing-dictated) brief.

Such contortions underscore three realities about Russia’s engagement

in the Korean nuclear issue, and in Asia-Pacific security-building more The Kremlin aims to
broadly. First, there is a substantial disconnect between ambition and
re-establish Russia as a
performance. The Kremlin aims to re-establish Russia as a significant
security actor on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia but lacks significant security actor on
the capacity to make this happen. Although some observers see Russia the Korean Peninsula…
as a rising military power in the Asia-Pacific, its projection capabilities
there remain modest, especially compared to those of the United States
but lacks the capacity to
and China.42 Politically, too, it has next to zero influence on the main make this happen.
parties to the Korean conflict.

Second, much as Moscow would like to pursue a more independent line

in Northeast Asia, it is wary of stepping on Beijing’s toes and risking harm
to the Sino-Russian partnership. It recognises that North Korea is at least
as important to Beijing as Ukraine is to itself. Instead, Putin has used the
Korean question to reinforce the message of Sino-Russian convergence
— criticising the large American military presence in the region, the
conduct of joint US–ROK (Republic of Korea) military exercises, and
Seoul’s deployment of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense)
missile system.43

Third, Russia’s limited capacities and the need to proceed cautiously

dictate a temporising, conservative approach in which the accent is on
status. The Kremlin’s main priority is to ensure that Russia is included in
the decision-making group of powers,44 even if its actual influence is
negligible. In the meantime, it can live with the status quo on the Korean
Peninsula, and would welcome a face-saving arrangement to freeze North
Korea’s nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions.45 Although it
would prefer full denuclearisation, a US–DPRK (Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea) deal of any kind could lead to a substantial downsizing
of America’s military presence in Northeast Asia — a most desirable result
from Moscow’s standpoint. Conflict, on the other hand, between
Washington and Pyongyang would cement the US position on Russia’s
Pacific doorstep for decades.46

RUSSIA AS ECONOMIC ACTOR

Russia’s best chance of projecting itself as a significant player in the Asia-
Pacific may lie as an economic contributor. Although the countries of the
region are inclined to see Russia as backward, undynamic, and overly
reliant on natural resources, it nevertheless has a notable impact in
several areas.

The most important is the energy sector, where there is a natural

complementarity between Russia as the world’s largest exporter of oil and

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gas, and the ever-expanding requirements of the fast-growing but

energy-poor economies of the Asia-Pacific. Attention has focused mainly
on Sino-Russian cooperation, in particular the 2013 oil deal between
Rosneft and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC),47 the
2014 Power of Siberia gas agreement between Gazprom and CNPC,48
and the sizeable Chinese investments in Novatek’s LNG (liquefied natural
gas) projects on the Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas in the Arctic.49

Still, Moscow is keen to reduce its dependence on China by developing

new markets in Asia. It has encouraged Japanese interest in various LNG
ventures, building on the already substantial involvement of Mitsui and
Mitsubishi in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas development. It has brought Indian
energy companies into the Vankor oil and gas field in Eastern Siberia.
Rosneft is also conducting oil exploration with Vietnam in the South China
Sea, despite Chinese opposition.50 And with the recent improvement in
inter-Korean relations, there is renewed talk of a trans-Korean gas
pipeline.51

So far much of this is speculative. Russia faces considerable obstacles in

realising its ambitions to become a major energy supplier to the Asia-
Moscow is keen to Pacific region. These include American sanctions, which have
discouraged participation by Japanese and South Korean companies; 52
reduce its dependence fluctuations in oil and gas prices, which have previously raised doubts
on China by developing about the viability of several high-cost ventures;53 the impact of US shale
new markets in Asia. gas; and the expansion of renewables, both in key markets (China) and
globally. However, these difficulties are not insuperable, especially as
Asia-Pacific demand for fossil fuels is forecast to grow strongly for some
decades yet. For example, as China shifts from coal to natural gas in
response to environmental pressures, its annual gas import requirements
are expected to more than triple — from 91 billion cubic metres (bcm) in
2017 to 340 bcm by 2030.54 And Russian gas exports to China could grow
from almost nothing today to more than 100 bcm annually by the
mid-2030s.55

Russia appears to enjoy an enviable geoeconomic location. It is a

potential bridge between Europe and Asia, the China–Mongolia–Russia
corridor being one of six designated routes for the BRI. It is the
pre-eminent Arctic power, whose Northern Sea Route could, in time,
become a major transportation artery linking Asia and Europe. And the
Russian Far East lies at the crossroads of northeast China, Japan, and
the Korean Peninsula.

Putin has taken every opportunity to talk up Russia’s assets. In addition to

the Northern Sea Route and Arctic energy projects, he has laid out a vision
for a Greater Eurasia, extending from the Pacific Ocean to Europe.56 He
has also instituted the annual Eastern Economic Forum (EEF). The EEF
combines pitching for investment from Asian companies with political
representation at the highest level. Xi, Abe, and many other Asian leaders
have attended in recent years.

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As in other areas, though, there are considerable practical difficulties in

translating Kremlin aspirations into reality. In the first place, Russia is less
a bridge between Europe and Asia than a secondary route for the BRI. It
is telling that Moscow’s attempts to obtain Chinese funding for Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU) infrastructural projects have been almost entirely
unsuccessful — this despite a much-publicised EEU–SREB (Silk Road
Economic Belt) agreement in May 2015. If there is to be a Greater Eurasia,
it will materialise on Chinese, not Russian, terms.57

Russia’s prospects look more promising in the Arctic. The speed of global
warming and melting of the polar ice cap suggests that commercial
shipping there could become a reality sooner than expected, a
development the Kremlin has welcomed enthusiastically. 58 The Chinese
are also sinking huge resources into Arctic research and development.
However, the opening up of the Arctic may turn out to be a mixed blessing
for Moscow. Far from being able to project Russian geoeconomic
influence, it could struggle to retain sovereign control. Crucially, the
Russian and Chinese positions on ‘ownership’ of the Arctic diverge
substantially. Moscow regards the Arctic Ocean as, in effect, Russian
coastal waters, while Beijing views it as part of the global commons, much
like Antarctica.59 Such tensions are not yet acute. Sino-Russian polar
cooperation is good, if limited, and Beijing has generally minded Moscow’s
sensitivities. But there is possible trouble ahead. Russian officials already
bristle at Beijing’s moniker for the Northern Sea Route, ‘the Polar Silk
Road’, and the implication that it falls within the purview of the BRI.60

The notion of the Russian Far East as a transport and trading hub for
…the opening up of
Northeast Asia is implausible today. This vast territory comprises more
than a third of the Russian Federation but has a population of barely six the Arctic may turn out
million and wholly inadequate infrastructure.61 The Russian Government’s to be a mixed blessing
record here is not encouraging. Over the past two decades, it has initiated
several development programs for the subregion, but these have been for Moscow.
undermined by bad planning, uncertain funding, inept administration, and
poor project completion.62 As a result, the Russian Far East continues to
lag behind the rest of the Russian Federation, never mind its Asia-Pacific
neighbours (with the exception of North Korea). This fate underlines the
point that territory alone does not equate to meaningful geoeconomic
influence.

Moscow faces somewhat different challenges in the area of arms

exports. On the face of things, there is ample scope to expand existing
markets and open up new ones. Following the annexation of Crimea,
Western sanctions against Russia encouraged the Kremlin to relax
restrictions on the export of top-end military equipment to China. Several
major arms deals were expedited, notably of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile
system and the Su-35 multipurpose fighter. Elsewhere, India remains
Russia’s biggest arms customer, Vietnam has risen to fifth position,63 and
Southeast Asia has become a major growth market.64

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 ONCE MORE WITH FEELING: RUSSIA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC

In the short term, the future for Russian arms exports is bright. Russian
companies, unlike their Western counterparts, are unencumbered by
normative restrictions about the end use of their products. They are also
well-geared to meeting the specific requirements of mid-level Asian
customers. And even at the higher end of the market — China, India —
Russia’s technological superiority in certain operating systems, such as
avionics and engines, is highly prized. All these advantages give Moscow
a handy tool to project influence in the Asia-Pacific, especially when it can
play on regional tensions, for example between China and Vietnam.65

Longer term, however, the outlook is uncertain. Both Beijing and New
Delhi are committed to developing their indigenous arms industries on the
back of rapid economic growth and modernisation. Imports from Russia
fill a technological gap for the time being, but it is unclear for how long.
Given the speed at which China is reverse engineering Russian designs,
…it is questionable the window of commercial opportunity may be quite limited.66 Similarly,
whether arms exports are Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s determination to reduce and
diversify Indian dependence on imports suggests that Russian companies
a sustainable means of will find it difficult to maintain, let alone expand, their largest market.67
projecting Russian soft
There are other potential problems, too. Although Russia is a much bigger
power in the Asia-Pacific. arms exporter than China, the latter is making inroads at the lower end of
the market. Over the past five years, an estimated 70 per cent of Chinese
arms exports went to Asia and Oceania, and we can expect intensified
competition here as Beijing further develops its arms industry.68

In these circumstances, it is questionable whether arms exports are a

sustainable means of projecting Russian soft power in the Asia-Pacific.
Countries in the region will continue to buy Russian arms, but they will
look increasingly to other sources as well. Russia would then become just
one among many suppliers, operating in a buyers’ market, and with limited
capacity to parlay its arms sales into a wider strategic influence.

RUSSIA AS GOOD REGIONAL CITIZEN

In the five years since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Putin has cut a
defiant figure in response to Western condemnation and sanctions. At
times, he has seemed to derive a perverse pleasure from this, regarding
it as confirmation that he is getting things right — advancing Russia’s
domestic and foreign policy interests despite the best efforts of its
enemies. Yet playing the international ‘hard man’ is debilitating. Much as
Putin appears to enjoy poking the West, he also craves a wider
respectability. He is busily engaged in recrafting Russia’s image, most
obviously in the Middle East, where Moscow has had some success in
converting its military victories in Syria into region-wide reputational
dividends.

The Kremlin aspires to achieve something similar in the Asia-Pacific,

although the conditions are very different. Russia is far less influential
there than in the Middle East. The cast of regional players is much more

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 ONCE MORE WITH FEELING: RUSSIA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC

formidable. And the stakes are considerably higher, with little margin for
error. Unsurprisingly, then, Moscow has trod carefully. There have been
no flamboyant initiatives or insistence on Russia’s ‘rights’ as a great
power. Instead, the thrust has been to portray Russia as a good regional
citizen, pragmatic and tolerant. To this purpose, Moscow has played the
‘non-ideological’ card. Unlike the proselytising West, it proclaims the right
of all countries to follow their individual paths, and advocates cooperation
irrespective of differences in political systems.

Identifying with ‘Asian’ traditions of mutual tolerance is attractive above all

because it reinforces the idea of an alternative legitimacy and moral
consensus to the West. Ever since the annexation of Crimea, Putin has
been keen to disprove claims that Russia is diplomatically isolated. 69
Initially, he sought comfort in the form of an enhanced ‘strategic
partnership’ with China. But he has since emphasised a larger
convergence with the non-Western world, and in particular with the Asia-
Pacific region.70 Rebooting Russia as a good international citizen is all the
more appealing to highlight the contrast with a delinquent, rule-busting
America.

Accordingly, the Russian Government has become more active in Asian

regional organisations. Its interest in multilateralism is no longer confined
to those bodies where it has a leading role (the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, the BRICS, and post-Soviet entities such as the Eurasian
Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization).
Instead, it has shown a willingness to get involved in organisations where Identifying with ‘Asian’
Russia occupies only a secondary position, such as APEC, the East Asia traditions of mutual
Summit, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. In November 2018
tolerance…reinforces the
Putin attended the East Asia Summit in Singapore for the first time since
Russia joined in 2011. His participation reflected both a new appreciation idea of an alternative
for Asia-Pacific institutions, and a heightened commitment to engagement legitimacy and moral
with the ASEANs — not just Russia’s former client-state Vietnam, but also
Indonesia (a major purchaser of Russian weapons, most recently the consensus to the West.
Su-35), Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand.71

Recasting Russia as a good regional citizen, however, means overcoming

an ingrained mindset. The issue is not Moscow’s history of rule-breaking.
Its annexation of Crimea, after all, barely resonated with many Asia-Pacific
countries.72 The challenge is rather to reconcile the pursuit of good
regional citizenship with more instinctive habits of power projection.73 To
put it another way, can Russia be at once virtuous and influential? Part of
the problem here lies in its limited tools of influence. Russian ‘soft power’
in the Asia-Pacific is minimal, particularly compared to that of major
players such as the United States, China, and Japan. There is
consequently little prospect that it can be a norm-setter in any emerging
regional order. It can follow, but it cannot lead. That is psychologically hard
for any Russian leader — and most likely impossible for Putin.

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 ONCE MORE WITH FEELING: RUSSIA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC

The difficulty is compounded by a strategic culture centred in the belief

that great powers decide and smaller states abide. When Russian
policymakers call for “a fair and democratic international system that
addresses international issues on the basis of collective decision-
making”,74 they really mean that authority should devolve from a
‘hegemonic’ United States to a de facto Concert of Great Powers.75 There
is little suggestion that decision-making should be shared beyond that.
Such an elitist attitude places significant constraints on the expansion of
Russia’s relations with the ASEANs, and its commitment to more inclusive
multilateral forums such as APEC and the East Asia Summit.

PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

The Asia-Pacific region has become a critical testing ground for Putin’s
Whereas Russia’s relations foreign policy. Whereas Russia’s relations with the United States and
Europe are largely static and give little reason for optimism, the situation
with the United States and
in the Asia-Pacific is fluid and dynamic. Moscow has the opportunity to
Europe are largely static… make a difference. Although Russia starts from a much lower base than
the situation in the Asia- in Europe or the Middle East, this is in some respects an advantage. It
enjoys a relatively clean slate, with most players in the region being less
Pacific is fluid and dynamic. jaundiced in their attitudes than in the West, and therefore more willing to
give it the benefit of the doubt.

It helps, too, that expectations are modest, and that the sense of great
power entitlement so palpable in the Kremlin’s interactions with the United
States, Europe, and the ex-Soviet republics is somewhat muted. No one
in Moscow anticipates that Russia will magically transmute into an Asia-
Pacific power anytime soon. There is an appreciation that it is only at the
beginning of a very long and demanding process.76

THE KEYS TO SUCCESS … AND FAILURE

The success of Putin’s Asia-Pacific enterprise, or ‘turn to the East’, will
depend on a number of factors. Arguably, the most positive step has
already been made — recognition of the Asia-Pacific as a region of the
first importance, no longer ‘second-class’ compared to Europe. This alone
should ensure that Russian policymakers devote increasing attention and
resources to its affairs in coming years.

At the same time, old habits die hard. The Kremlin continues to see the
Asia-Pacific as a geopolitical arena first and foremost. This reflects a
certain strategic culture, the great power mentality (derzhavnost) that has
driven Russian leaders from Tsarist times to the present.77 Such
predispositional influences have been strengthened by circumstances —
the gathering confrontation between the United States and China, the
ongoing deterioration in Russia–West relations, strategic tensions across
Asia, and the uncertain situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Against this backdrop, it is unrealistic to expect Russian policymakers to

shed their atavistic urges entirely. The real test is whether they are

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prepared to moderate such instincts, not just in the short term and as a
tactical or opportunistic response to individual situations, but as part of a
committed choice towards a more balanced and versatile Russian foreign
policy.

They will need to resist two temptations in particular. The first is the crude
triangularism that over the past three decades has consistently
undermined Russia’s engagement with the Asia-Pacific. Moscow must
show that it is in for the long haul, that engagement is valued on its own
merits rather than as leverage in some global Great Game involving the
United States and China. Should Russia one day be reconciled with the
West — admittedly, not an early prospect — it is vital that this does not
come at the cost of a loss of momentum in cooperation with the Asia-
Pacific. Otherwise, Russia will struggle to escape the boom-bust cycle of
alternating interest and neglect that has so far characterised its approach
towards the region.

The second trap is the delusion of a Sino-Russian authoritarian alliance

directed against the United States. Although this fiction is largely the
product of overwrought imaginations in Moscow and Washington (but not
in Beijing78), it has hindered Kremlin efforts to develop a bona fide Asia
policy, as opposed to a China-plus approach in which all other
relationships are contingent on the Sino-Russian partnership.79 A shift
towards a more rounded and comprehensive engagement with the Asia-
Pacific would afford Moscow greater possibilities. It would be consistent A shift towards a more
with one of the primary goals of Putin’s foreign policy: to project Russia as
an independent and indispensable centre of global power. But it would
rounded and comprehensive
also require the Kremlin to go against some basic instincts: the habit of engagement with the
seeing the United States as ‘chief enemy’; the desire to counterbalance Asia-Pacific would afford
the global ‘hegemon’; fear and loathing of Western liberal values; and
visceral anxieties about the stability of the Putin regime. By comparison, Moscow greater possibilities.
strategic and normative convergence with China offers a convenient
authoritarian simplicity, leaving untouched long-standing principles of
Russian domestic and foreign policy.

This leads to the question of whether Russia can fulfil a constructive role
in Asia-Pacific affairs, or whether it will live up to the stereotype of being a
malign actor. The answer is tied to its great power identity, and willingness
to reinvent this. In recent years, the image of a resurgent Russia has been
based on a return to its traditional strengths as a hard power. The Kremlin
has operated on the premise that popularity is overrated, and that it is
more important to uphold Russia’s ‘rights’, virtually regardless of the
consequences. The course of events in Ukraine and Syria has tended to
confirm this judgement. Crucially, Putin’s quest to recast Russia’s image
in no way implies an admission that he might have handled things better.
The packaging may change, but the fundamentals remain the same: a
belief in Russia’s essential rightness; an abiding faith in its unique identity
and mission; and the conviction that it should exploit its comparative

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advantages, such as military might and energy resources, to the

maximum.80

That said, the conditions prevailing in the Asia-Pacific may bring about a
rethink, although not soon. It is highly problematic for Russia to deploy
hard power there; its capacities are limited, the obstacles much greater,
and the risks huge. Playing the part of a responsible regional citizen
therefore becomes more attractive. The trend of more active participation
in regional multilateral structures may indicate that Moscow is beginning
to learn what it takes to be a respected player in the Asia-Pacific. Yet such
a course means coming to terms with a more modest, less influential
Russian role for some time. This is counter-intuitive to the Putin elite. Is
the Kremlin prepared to exercise strategic patience and great power
restraint in the hope of eventual gains? Or will it revert to type as soon as
it feels able?

Much will depend on developments beyond the region. If Putin — or a

…the future of Russia successor — feels that Russia is doing well at home and abroad, the
in the Asia-Pacific is a temptation to throw its weight around may be easier to resist. The Kremlin
might conclude that time is on its side and there is no need to rush. It could
global rather than a
work on steadily expanding Russia’s relationships, presence, and
regional question. influence in the Asia-Pacific. It could play to its comparative advantages
in areas such as energy development and, in the longer term, food and
water security.

However, if Russia’s relations with the West should deteriorate further, its
domestic situation were to become difficult, or it became frustrated at a
lack of progress, then it could regress to the historical mean of being a
self-entitled great power. For in the end the future of Russia in the Asia-
Pacific is a global rather than a regional question. The Kremlin’s mission
is not about Russia becoming ‘Asian’, but rather a transcendent global
power with all the attendant privileges. Unfortunately, it is precisely this
kind of mentality that has undermined previous attempts at an Asia-Pacific
strategy. To break the cycle, then, will require not just a new attitude towards
Asia, but a changed mindset about the larger conduct of international
relations. And that represents an entirely different order of challenge.

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NOTES
1See Bobo Lo, Russia and the New World Disorder (London; Washington DC:
Chatham House and Brookings, 2015).
2
Boris Yeltsin, “Chto skazal Eltsin rossiiskim diplomatam [What Yeltsin Said to
Russia’s Diplomats]”, address at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Rossiskie vesti,
29 October 1992, 1.
3Fyodor Lukyanov, “Povorot na vostok [Turn to the East]”, Council on Foreign
and Defense Policy, 15 February 2010, http://old.svop.ru/mm/2010/mm25.htm;
see also CSCAP (Russian National Committee of the Council for Security
Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific), “Going East: Russia’s Asia-Pacific Strategy”,
Russia in Global Affairs, 25 December 2010, https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/
Going-East-Russias-Asia-Pacific-Strategy-15081.
4See, for example, Melissa Conley Tyler, “The Indo-Pacific Is the New Asia”,
The Interpreter, 28 June 2019, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/indo-
pacific-new-asia.
5See, for example, Dmitri Trenin, “It’s Time to Rethink Russia’s
Foreign Policy Strategy”, Carnegie Moscow Center, 25 April 2019,
https://carnegie.ru/commentary/78990.
6Sergei Karaganov, “A New Epoch of Confrontation”, Russia in Global Affairs,
19 March 2018, https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/A-New-Epoch-of-
Confrontation-19433.
7 Despite China–Russia trade exceeding US$100 billion for the first time, and a
substantial drop in EU–Russia trade since 2014, in 2018 the European Union still
accounted for 42.8 per cent of Russia’s total external trade, compared to China’s
15.8 per cent: European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade, “European
Union, Trade in Goods with Russia”, 3 June 2019, https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/
isdb_results/factsheets/country/details_russia_en.pdf (accessed 21 July 2019).
8“Tourism in 2018: Where Are Russians Travelling?”, Moscow International
Travel & Tourism (MITT) Exhibition, 10 September 2018, http://www.mitt.ru/en-
GB/Media-centre/News/Tourism-in-2018-where-are-Russians-travelling.aspx.
9Vladimir Putin, speech at the gala dinner marking the 70th anniversary
of China–Russia diplomatic relations, Moscow, 5 June 2019,
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60674.
10The 2018 US National Defense Strategy (NDS) asserts that the “central
challenge to US prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term strategic
competition by … revisionist powers. It is increasingly clear that China and
Russia want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model”: US
Department of Defense, “Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the
United States of America”, 19 January 2018, 2, https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/
Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf.
11Richard Ellings and Robert Sutter (eds), Axis of Authoritarians: Implications of
China–Russia Cooperation (Seattle and Washington DC: National Bureau of
Asian Research, 2018).

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12Sergei Karaganov, “Russia’s Victory and a New Concert of Nations”, Russia in

Global Affairs, 31 March 2017, https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/pubcol/Russias-
Victory-new-Concert-of-Nations-18641.
13 Vladimir Putin interview with Financial Times editor Lionel Barber and Moscow
bureau chief Henry Foy, The Kremlin, Moscow, 27 June 2019,
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60836.
14According to Putin, he and Xi have met “almost 30 times in the last six years”.
See their press statements following Russia–China bilateral talks, Moscow,
5 June 2019, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60672.
15
“No US, No Problem! Russia–China Trade Set to Double & Reach $200 Billion
Soon”, RT, 11 June 2019, https://www.rt.com/business/461577-russia-china-
trade-turnover/.
16“Russia Remains China’s Largest Crude Oil Source for 3rd Year: Report”,
Global Times, 24 March 2019, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1143223.shtml.
17In recent years, Russia–China military exercises have included ‘Joint Sea’,
‘Peace Mission’ (within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization), and Vostok-2018, when some 3000 Chinese troops joined
Russia’s largest military exercise since the Cold War.
18 Vassily Kashin, “Joint Russian–Chinese Air Patrol Signifies New Level of
Cooperation”, Carnegie Moscow Center, 30 July 2019,
https://carnegie.ru/commentary/79587.
19Evgeny Morozov, “Reasserting Cyber Sovereignty: How States Are Taking
Back Control”, The Guardian, 7 October 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/
technology/2018/oct/07/states-take-back-cyber-control-technological-sovereignty.
20 World Population Review, “GDP Ranked by Country 2019”,
http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-gdp/.
21Graham Allison, “China and Russia: A Strategic Alliance in the Making”,
The National Interest, 14 December 2018, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/
china-and-russia-strategic-alliance-making-38727.
22 Putin rarely misses an opportunity to praise the outcomes of the 1945 Yalta
conference between Stalin, Churchill, and Roosevelt. See, for example, his
speech to the 70th United Nations General Assembly on 28 September 2015,
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/50385.
23 “China’s Xi Jinping Says Paris Climate Deal Must Not Be Allowed to Fail”,
The Guardian, 19 January 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/
19/chinas-xi-jinping-says-world-must-implement-paris-climate-deal; see also
President Xi Jinping’s keynote address at the 2017 World Economic Forum in
Davos, 17 January 2017, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/full-text-of-
xi-jinping-keynote-at-the-world-economic-forum/.
24Yan Xuetong, “The Age of Uneasy Peace”, Foreign Affairs, January/February
2019, 42.
25Jinghan Zeng and Shaun Breslin, “China’s ‘New Type of Great Power
Relations’: A G2 with Chinese Characteristics?”, International Affairs (London)
92, No 4 (2016), 775.

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26 See “Moscow Protests: Opposition Rally ‘Largest Since 2011’”, BBC,

10 August 2019, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49305129; and
Farah Master and James Pomfret, “Hong Kong Facing Worst Crisis since
Handover: Senior China Official”, Reuters, 7 August 2019,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests/hong-kong-facing-worst-
crisis-since-handover-senior-china-official-idUSKCN1UX089.
27Sergei Karaganov warns that “Beijing is moving towards creating a
Sino-centric system in Asia. We risk remaining on the periphery, albeit friendly,
unless we propose our own ideas”: “How to Win a Cold War”, Russia in Global
Affairs, 4 September 2018, https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/pubcol/How-to-Win-a-
Cold-War--19732.
28Moscow welcomed in 2017 the election of President Moon Jae-in as a notably
easier interlocutor than his predecessor, Park Geun-hye.
29At Yalta, Stalin agreed that the Soviet Union would enter the war against
Japan three months after the final defeat of Germany. He took the opportunity to
take over the South Kuril Islands/Northern Territories, which have since remained
part of the Russian Federation.
30“Dying Father’s Dream Drives Abe to Seek Peace on Putin’s Terms”,
Bloomberg, 20 December 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-
12-20/dying-father-s-dream-drives-abe-to-seek-peace-on-putin-s-terms.
31“Japan Defies US Opposition to Next Week’s Putin Visit”, RT, 12 December
2016, https://www.rt.com/news/370071-putin-abe-japan-us/.
32“Vladimir Putin Says US Presence in Japan Complicates Signing of Peace
Treaty”, Japan Times, 21 December 2018, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/
2018/12/21/national/politics-diplomacy/vladimir-putin-says-u-s-presence-japan-
complicates-signing-peace-treaty/#.XOfNDqR7m00.
33 The ongoing row between Japan and South Korea has further weakened
Tokyo’s position relative to Moscow. For background to the crisis, see
Simon Denyer, “Japan–South Korea Dispute Escalates as Both Sides
Downgrade Trade Ties”, The Washington Post, 2 August 2019,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-downgrades-south-
korea-as-trade-partner-as-bitter-dispute-escalates/2019/08/01/6a1d83ec-b4cc-
11e9-8e94-71a35969e4d8_story.html.
34From 2013 to 2017, Russia supplied 62 per cent of India’s arms imports, while
India accounted for 35 per cent of Russian arms exports in the period 2008 to
2017. See Aaditya Dave, “India and Russia: Ties that Bind”, Royal United
Services Institute (RUSI), 12 November 2018, https://rusi.org/commentary/india-
and-russia-ties-bind.
35M Rajshekhar, “The Curious Case of Russian Oil Deals that Benefited Essar,
Hurt ONGC”, Scroll.in, 4 February 2019, https://scroll.in/article/910862/the-modi-
putin-effect-russian-oil-deals-benefited-essar-hurt-ongc-say-experts.
36“India Opposes Western Sanctions against Russia”, Economic Times,
20 March 2014, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-
nation/india-opposes-western-sanctions-against-russia/articleshow/
32308186.cms.

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37In the financial year 2017/18, Russia–India trade was US$10.69 billion,
amounting to 1.6 per cent of Russia’s total external trade: “Bilateral Relations:
India–Russia Relations”, Embassy of India in Moscow, https://indianembassy-
moscow.gov.in/bilateral-relations-india-russia.php (accessed 22 July 2019).
38Andrew Korybko, “Russia–Pakistan Relations: Towards a Strategic
Partnership?”, Global Research, 10 August 2018, https://www.globalresearch.ca/
russia-pakistan-relations-towards-a-strategic-partnership/5650190; see also
Michael Peck, “Pakistan Is Russia’s New Best Friend”, The National Interest,
22 September 2018, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/pakistan-russias-new-
best-friend-31767.
39 Anna Jones, Ashitha Nagesh and Saira Asher, “As It Happened:
Trump and Kim’s Symbolic DMZ Meeting”, BBC, 30 June 2019,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-48815700.
40 The DMZ summit was followed by a series of North Korean missile tests —
stark proof that Kim, unlike Trump, would not be satisfied with symbolic gains.
See “North Korea Tests ‘Short-range Ballistic Missiles’”, BBC, 10 August 2019,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49301767; also Julian Borger,
“Why Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Foreign Policy Yields Minimum Results”,
The Guardian, 11 August 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/
aug/11/trump-foreign-policy-venezuela-north-korea-iran-results-2020.
41Georgy Toloraya, “Symbolic Meaning of Putin–Kim Summit”, Valdai
Discussion Club, 26 April 2019, http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/symbolic-
meaning-of-putin-kim-summit/?sphrase_id=686099.
42 Alexey Muraviev, “Russia Is a Rising Military Power in the Asia-Pacific, and
Australia Needs to Take It Seriously”, The Conversation, 30 October 2018,
http://theconversation.com/russia-is-a-rising-military-power-in-the-asia-pacific-
and-australia-needs-to-take-it-seriously-105390. The Russian military presence
in Central Eurasia, however, is a different story. There Russia remains the
pre-eminent security actor.
43“China, Russia Share Opposition to US THAAD in South Korea: Xi”, Reuters,
3 July 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-thaad-russia/china-russia-
share-opposition-to-u-s-thaad-in-south-korea-xi-idUSKBN19O0N8. See also
Putin–Xi press conference, 4 July 2017, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/
news/54979.
44
Russia’s desire to be included is reflected in its lobbying to revive the Six-Party
Talks (the United States, China, North and South Korea, Japan, and Russia).
See Putin press conference following the Vladivostok summit with Kim Jong-un,
25 April 2019, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60370.
45“Kim–Trump Meeting Presages US Climbdown”, Oxford Analytica Daily Brief,
10 July 2019, https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB245087/Kim-Trump-
meeting-presages-US-climbdown.
46 Alexander Gabuev, “Bad Cop, Mediator, or Spoiler: Russia’s Role
on the Korean Peninsula”, Carnegie Moscow Center, 24 April 2019,
https://carnegie.ru/commentary/78976.
47 “Russia and China Agree $270bn Oil Deal”, Financial Times, 21 June 2013,
https://www.ft.com/content/ebc10e76-da55-11e2-a237-00144feab7de.

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48“Russia Signs 30-year Deal Worth $400 bn to Deliver Gas to China”,

The Guardian, 21 May 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/21/
russia-30-year-400bn-gas-deal-china.
49“China Acquires 20 Percent Stake in Novatek’s Latest Arctic LNG Project”,
High North News, 29 April 2019, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/china-
acquires-20-percent-stake-novateks-latest-arctic-lng-project.
50“Beijing Warns Rosneft over Drilling in South China Sea”, Newsbase, 23 May
2018, https://newsbase.com/topstories/beijing-warns-rosneft-over-drilling-south-
china-sea.
51
Jane Chung, “Trans-Korea Gas Pipeline Project Reappears, but Challenges
Remain”, Reuters, 29 June 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-
southkorea-gas-russia-expl/trans-korea-gas-pipeline-project-reappears-but-
challenges-remain-idUSKBN1JP0UN.
52Maria Shagina, “Under Pressure: Russian Energy Cooperation with Japan and
South Korea since Western Sanctions”, Russia Political Economy Project,
7 February 2019, 10–11, https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/
shaginarpe2.pdf.
53One project that is particularly dependent on buoyant energy prices is the
proposed Altai gas pipeline, now called ‘Power of Siberia 2’.
54 James Henderson, “Russia’s Gas Pivot to Asia: Another False Dawn or Ready
for Lift Off?”, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, November 2018, 7–8,
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Russias-gas-
pivot-to-Asia-Insight-40.pdf.
55 Ibid, 16.
56Vladimir Putin, address at the 2016 St Petersburg International Economic
Forum, 17 June 2016, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178.
57 Bobo Lo, “Greater Eurasia: The Emperor’s New Clothes or an Idea whose
Time Has Come?”, Russie.NEI.Reports No 27, Ifri, July 2019, 36,
https://www.ifri.org/fr/publications/etudes-de-lifri/russieneireports/greater-eurasia-
emperors-new-clothes-or-idea-whose.
58
See Putin’s speech at the 5th International Arctic Forum, St Petersburg,
9 April 2019, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60250.
59 Pavel Gudev, “Arkticheskie ambitsii Podnebesnoi [The Arctic Ambitions of the
Heavenly Kingdom]”, Rossiya v globalnoi politike, 14 September 2018,
https://globalaffairs.ru/number/Arkticheskie-ambitcii-Podnebesnoi-19751.
60
Author’s private conversation with a senior Russian official in 2019.
61
Jacopo Maria Pepe, “The ‘Eastern Polygon’ of the Trans-Siberian Rail Line:
A Critical Factor for Assessing Russia’s Strategy toward Eurasia and the Asia-
Pacific”, Asia-Europe Journal (forthcoming in 2019).
62Ivan Zuenko, “A Chinese–Russian Regional Program Ends with a Whimper”,
Carnegie Moscow Center, 26 September 2018, https://carnegie.ru/commentary/
77341. See also Helge Blakkisrud, Elana Wilson Rowe and Roman Vakulchuk,
“Russia’s Far East Initiatives in Troubled Geopolitical Times”, Valdai Discussion
Club Report No 92, August 2018, 7–8, http://valdaiclub.com/files/19177/.

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63 Daniel Brown, “The Top Ten Countries that Bought Russia’s Most
Powerful Weapons in 2017”, Business Insider, 6 October 2018,
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-weapons-sales-top-countries-2018-
4?r=US&IR=T.
64Matt Bartlett, “Russian Arms Flood Southeast Asia”, The Interpreter,
8 February 2019, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/russian-arms-flood-
southeast-asia.
65Alexander Kruglov, “Business Booming for Russia’s Arms Traders”, Asia
Times, 22 April 2019, https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/04/article/business-
booming-for-russias-arms-traders/.
66 It is conceivable that the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution in China could
even end up reversing the direction of its arms trade with Russia within a couple
of decades — comment by an anonymous reviewer.
67 “Russian Arms Exports to India Fell by 42 Percent between 2014–18 and
2009–2013: Report”, Economic Times, 11 March 2019,
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russian-arms-exports-to-
india-fell-by-42-percent-between-2014-18-and-2009-13-report/articleshow/
68352681.cms.
68Lu Zhenhua, “China Sells Arms to More Countries and Is World’s Biggest
Exporter of Armed Drones, Says Swedish Think Tank SIPRI”, South China
Morning Post, 12 March 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/
2189604/china-sells-weapons-more-countries-and-biggest-exporter-armed.
69“Obama Says Russia Isolated, Putin ‘Scaring’ Neighbors”, Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 3 December 2014, https://www.rferl.org/a/obama-says-
russia-isolated-putin-scary/26723673.html.
70See, for example, Putin’s speech at the Eastern Economic Forum on
12 September 2018, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58537.
71Ian Storey, “What Did Russian President Putin Achieve in Singapore?”, ISEAS
Yusof Ishak Institute, 27 November 2018, https://www.iseas.edu.sg/medias/
commentaries/item/8612-what-did-russian-president-putin-achieve-in-singapore-
by-ian-storey.
72 United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 of 27 March 2014
affirmed the territorial integrity of Ukraine by a vote of 100 to 11, with
58 abstentions and 24 absentees. Asia-Pacific countries featured heavily in the
latter two categories. China, India, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Brunei
abstained, while Laos and Timor-Leste were among those who absented
themselves: https://undocs.org/en/A/68/PV.80.
73 The tension between virtue signalling and more traditional power projection
was highlighted by Russia’s joint air patrol with the Chinese in July 2019. An A-50
Russian surveillance plane drew warning fire from the South Korean air force
after entering the airspace around the Dokdo/Takeshima Islands. See “Russia
and South Korea Spar Over Air Space ‘Intrusion’”, BBC, 24 July 2019,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49091523.
74 Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, 30 November 2016,
https://www.rusemb.org.uk/rp_insight/.

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75 This attitude is reflected in Moscow’s consistent opposition to meaningful

reform of the UN Security Council and, in particular, any dilution of the veto
powers of the Permanent Five members.
76Leonid Blyakher et al, “Toward the Great Ocean – 6: People, History, Ideology,
Education – Rediscovering the Identity”, Valdai Discussion Club Report,
September 2018, 57, http://valdaiclub.com/files/19357/.
77Bobo Lo, Going Legit? The Foreign Policy of Vladimir Putin, Lowy Institute
Analysis (Sydney: Lowy Institute, 2018), https://www.lowyinstitute.org/
publications/going-legit-foreign-policy-vladimir-putin.
78
In a recent month-long visit to China, I found near-unanimous opposition
among scholars to the idea of a Sino-Russian alliance against the United States.
Indeed, some of them expressed concern that Washington might succeed in
drawing Moscow away from Beijing — an even more improbable scenario.
79Bobo Lo, A Wary Embrace: What the China–Russia Relationship Means for
the World (Melbourne: Penguin Random House Australia, 2017), 58–61.
80 Lo, Going Legit? The Foreign Policy of Vladimir Putin.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Bobo Lo is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. He is an
independent analyst and an Associate Research Fellow with the
Russia/NIS Center at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
He was previously Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at
Chatham House and Deputy Head of Mission at the Australian Embassy
in Moscow. He has written extensively on Russian foreign and security
policy, with a particular focus on Sino-Russian relations. He is the author
of Russia and the New World Disorder, which was short-listed for the 2016
Pushkin House Prize and described by The Economist as the “best
attempt yet to explain Russia’s unhappy relationship with the rest of the
world”. His Lowy Institute Paper, A Wary Embrace: What the China–
Russia Relationship Means for the World, was published in 2017. He has
a MA from Oxford and a PhD from Melbourne University.

Bobo Lo
31 Bligh Street Tel: +61 2 8238 9000 www.lowyinstitute.org
Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Fax: +61 2 8238 9005 twitter: @lowyinstitute